Six-Man Rotation
by Bambi on Jul 5, 2011 9:00 AM PDT
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PrintWhen our starting pitchers return after the All-Star break, we will have more promising arms than we have room for them. As most of them are battling injuries, it may make sense to switch to a Six-Man rotation. While Cahill and Gonzalez may not need the extra rest, the rest of staff can certainly use it. It's not like we're in a pennant race and can't afford to take a start away from Cahill to give to Ross. A six helps build up the value of our number 6 pitcher, and makes it more likely we can trade him for a bat if the opportunity presents itself. While this was once a radical idea, The Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals have gone to six-man rotations this year and had success. We would do well to consider doing the same.
[Edit] Hat tip to PDXAthleticsfan for pointing out Cahill's ERA is much better on 5 days of rest, as he is less prone to give up home runs. Since last year his record is:
4 days rest: 122.2 IP, 47 ER, 76:42 K:BB, 14 HR, 3.45 ERA
5 days rest: 64 IP, 12 ER, 35:17 K:BB, 2 HR, 1.69 ERA
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No 6 man rotation needed...
harden will be on the DL within 3 weeks! mark it down
Every man for himself...
So you voted number 3!
If we’re going to lose a starter, does it make sense to keep his replacement working in the big leagues and not send him down to AAA.
This is where I am. Something will happen -- either trade, injury or ineffectiveness and we'll
be back to five pretty soon.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 5, 2011 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions
I thought about this the other day, great idea.
Start Gio and Cahill on normal rest, and all of the other starters will throw on five days rest. The extra day should make them all stronger on days they pitch and more healthy over the course of the season. Not that he’d be a part of it, but Godfrey cited his extra day of rest in making him stronger two Fridays ago when he outdueled Tim Lincecum.
Cahill, Gio on normal rest, then Harden, McCarthy, Outman (soon Ross) and Moscoso (which will hopefully soon be Anderson) on extra rest. See how long that lasts before an injury knocks it back down to five men, but I like the idea and think the A’s should do it. All have proven worthy of a rotation spot.
Oakland Athletics * St. Bonaventure Bonnies * Green Bay Packers * Buffalo Sabres * New York Knicks
Trade BA & Cahill for the best bats possible...
2012 will have
Gonzalez
Braden
Ross
Outman
Moscoso
Godfrey
McCarthy/ Harden
Every man for himself...
Yuck
So when Braden’s, Ross’s, Outman’s, McCarthy’s, and Harden’s arms all fall off, we have Gonzalez, Moscoso, and Godfrey. (And I don’t think Braden will be ready).
No thanks, if you’re playing to compete in 2012. If you’re trading for prospects or young cost-controlled bats that will help you out in 2013 and beyond, and not hoping to compete in 2012, then maybe.
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Jul 5, 2011 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions
I won't disagree that all 5 of their arms will fall off, but I doubt they'll fall off all at the same time..
We’ve got to get some legit bats because were are not competing now and in 2012 with this roster…
Every man for himself...
The problem is that by getting rid of Cahill and BA
we no longer have the pitching to compete in 2013 and they foreseeable future, unless the A’s think A. J. Griffin really is at least a legit number 3 pitcher.
That’s why I’d prefer getting some potential future bats by unloading Willingham/Crisp/Barton/Kouz/LaRoche/Suzuki/Matsui/any reliever to anyone willing to take them on and give up something with potential in return. If the A’s can also get a potential starting pitcher, as well, I’d feel better unloading Cahill.
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Jul 5, 2011 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions
If he can recover and stay healthy.
sigh
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Jul 5, 2011 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions
Er...?
I won’t disagree that all 5 of their arms will fall off, but I doubt they’ll fall off all at the same time..
Hasn’t it sort of already happened already this year? Braden, Anderson, McCarthy, Ross and Harden.
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Ross, nor McCarthy were Arm injuries, and actually Harden's wasn't either
by theblackpearl on Jul 5, 2011 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions
I was thinking Balfour, the other Oblique, that's right David was the shoulder
by theblackpearl on Jul 5, 2011 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions
or Brandon, gee, I am having a dumb day
by theblackpearl on Jul 5, 2011 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions
But oblique strains and lat strains are nagging in pitchers so it isnt like they sure bets
The key point is that all these pitchers went down simultaneously so it isnt out of the question to expect something like that could happen again
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Why, when the A's have no depth, are we starting to talk about a 6 man rotation?
I’d prefer a 4-man rotation to a 6-man rotation, but hey, who am I to reject such an arbitrary, contrived philosophy MLB is so good at creating and sustaining. People make the A’s out to have good pitching right now; they don’t. Moscoso and Godfrey are fringe MLB pitchers, so is Outman. The A’s went from having one of the best pitching staffs to one of the worst when Anderson, Braden, McCarthy and Ross went down. Not even the Yankees can handle 5 of their top 7 starters going down with injury.
"I don't know a (expletive) Jew who would have the balls to say that. Let me just get this straight. You don't ever tip, huh?" -- Chris Penn, from Reservoir Dogs
Are you sure of that? I thought I heard that, even with the injuries, the starting rotation was still in the top half of the
AL. That is hardly one of the worst.
by theblackpearl on Jul 5, 2011 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions
Prevention
We can’t afford to have McCarthy, Ross and Harden go down, so we want to delay those (inevitable) injuries for as long as we can. If giving some starts to Moscoso (or even Outman) can help keep our pitchers healthy, it’s worth it.
This is just my opinion, but I bet they'll just use the 6 man rotation as an excuse as to why they injured...
They’ll say their normal routine was thrown off and they couldn’t adjust.
Every man for himself...
No sense in reducing Cahill's innings now unless we throw in the towel
Plus, and this is just my feeling, but it seems like Cahill does better on normal rest than 5 days rest.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
SSS, but so far this year
4 days rest: 72 IP, 35 ER, 34 BB:55 K, 4.38 ERA
5 days rest: 35.2 IP, 5 ER, 10 BB:20 K, 1.26 ERA
8 of his 9 HR allowed are on 5 days rest.
So, the answer to your question is no.
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Jul 5, 2011 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Also note that the above does not include his first start, as I'm not sure how many days he had before his last ST start
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Jul 5, 2011 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions
Also, 8 of his 9 HR allowed on 4 days rest
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Jul 5, 2011 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions
Huh
Perhaps what I was thinking of are the K’s, which appear to trend towards more at normal rest. Anyway, good stuff GOG buddy!
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 5, 2011 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, I was kind of surprised by how big a difference it makes
I think the concept of whether Cahill, as a sinkerballer, performed better when he was tired, was covered in Nico’s interview, but I’m too lazy to look it back up. I don’t recall there being any definitive answer, but this would certainly be good evidence that, even if there’s a slightly higher K rate, it’s more than outweighed by other factors.
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Jul 5, 2011 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions
To continue the thought train
In FIP:
2010: 3.86 after 5 days rest vs. 5.13 after 4 days rest
2011: 3.85 vs. 5.33
K-rate is definitely overcome by higher walk rate, much higher HR rate and to a much lesser extent, more HBP.
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Jul 5, 2011 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions
OK, I'm officially getting obsessed by this topic
Here’s what Cahill had to say:
Cahill: They say that. Sometimes, definitely as far as the strikeouts go, if I’m tired or it’s late in the game, or it’s just one of those days where you don’t feel you have your velocity, sometimes I do well, I get lot of ground balls but I find I’m not striking a lot of guys out. It’s usually when I feel crisp, that’s when I feel I can really put a guy away, when I’m ahead in the count. It’s certainly a good thing that you have your movement even when you’re tired, so I guess that’s one of the good things about being a sinkerballer.
Which is opposite what the stats say. Heh.
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Jul 5, 2011 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Good idea
I’d also like to compare this to other sinkerballers to see if the difference is as pronounced.
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Jul 5, 2011 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions
That might be useful
Outside of that, I’d be inclined to favor “statistical noise” over any other theory as to why there’s a difference.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Obviously you could do a more robust srudy
and I might, but I ran some quick numbers fir Gio this year and there also was a difference in overall ERA of about 1 run and a marked difference in BB rate, which led to a very different FIP. I know, it’s only two pitchers, but it’s not unreasonable to think that an extra day of rest leads to better control and speed, which would cut down on BBs and HRs.
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Jul 5, 2011 8:04 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I would guess worse control and better velocity.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Gio's pitched 5 times this year on 5 days rest.
Lines #2,4,6,13, 14. Two of his three fastest velocity days came on those 5 starts but the other 3 don’t show much difference from his other starts.
He BB 2, 1, 2, 1, and 3 in those
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 7, 2011 4:05 AM PDT up reply actions
I mean in general, sorry.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Yeah, I've been looking a little deeper
into pitchers in the aggregate. I’ve done the calculations for 15 pitchers for 2010 so far. As you suggested, on 5 days rest, BBs are up slightly (about 5-6%), but BBs are down considerably (0.84/9 IP on four days rest vs. 0.67/9 IP on five days rest). K/9 and ERA are pretty much identical.
Gio’s splits are considerably different in 2010 than so far in 2011, at least for BBs – last year he walked 5.28/9 IP on five days rest and 3.89/9 IP on four days rest. However, HRs/9 IP were 0.83 on four days rest and 0.31 on five days rest. The overall effect on ERA was negligible.
So, yeah, while there does appear to be some differences in HR and BB rates, the overall effect on performance as far as runs allowed seems negligible and probably not giving up the roster spot.
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Jul 7, 2011 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Taking it to last year
4 days rest: 122.2 IP, 47 ER, 76:42 K:BB, 14 HR, 3.45 ERA
5 days rest: 64 IP, 12 ER, 35:17 K:BB, 2 HR, 1.69 ERA
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Jul 5, 2011 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Harden will be traded within the month
If he goes out there and throws 2 more good outings – He won’t fetch us a ton, but could be a decent prospect back since his contract is for next to nothing in baseball terms.
B.McCarthy – he could also be a trade chip, but I would like the to see the A’s given him a 3 year deal if not breaking the bank for him
Lance "you sunk my" Blankenship
If a trade is coming
Does it make more sense to have his replacement pitching every 6 days in the big leagues, or to have him pitch every 5 days in AAA?
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