Rosterbation Part 2
by Zonis on Jul 2, 2011 12:02 PM PDT
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Last week, we took a look at our options on offense, and since then, we've seen Chris Carter get actual at bats and Mark Ellis dealt to Colorado. Lets take a look at the other side of the ball, which is especially comforting since, gasp, we got guys coming OFF the disabled list this time! For this time around, we'll go Player by Player for the starting Rotation, and sum up the bullpen.
Starting Pitching:
Brett Anderson (Disabled List) - 4.00 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 1.0 WAR
Anderson is great when he is on, but he is usually off the field. In this sentiment, he is almost as frustrating as Rich Harden. Whenever he is great, he gets injured. I think it is time we started looking to shop our Ace for a new, improved, and healthier one.
Trevor Cahill - 3.28 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 1.4 WAR
Cahill is an enigma in a way. He was awesome last year despite his peripherals saying otherwise, and while he turned those peripherals around this year, he has been much more spotty, mixing in dominance with a string of bad games blamed on poor mechanics. I like Cahill, and its probably a good bet that we keep him around.
Gio Gonzalez - 2.38 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 2.0 WAR
Gio is easily our best pitcher at this point, and not just because of the numbers. He is the healthiest of the new big three, and he has been dominant to boot. It almost makes me not miss Nick Swisher. With his emotions under control, Gio will have a big career ahead of him, though it is interesting that he is the one the A's have yet to sign to a long term deal.
Dallas Braden (Disabled List) - 3.00 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 0.3 WAR
Braden is an interesting guy. He has gone from fringe draft pick to top prospect to emergency starter to lost cause to rotation veteran to Perfecto Braden to the glue that holds the rotation together. unfortunately for Braden, he has the A's medical staff to keep him together, which hasn't gone too well. With the whole episode with the foot, to his recent injuries, Braden will have to come back, hope to perform (and lay off the screwball) and.... then what? Do you deal him when he is finally healthy and good, or will he be a free agent by then? Or will he be buried in the depth chart?
Tyson Ross (Disabled List) - 2.75 ERA, 3.05 FIP, 0.8 WAR
Ross should be due back soon, and the sooner the better. Ross has been dominant in his stint as a starter this year, and the home town hero could be a stalwart in the rotation for years if his arm does not fall off. This is good, because there aren't many pitching prospects coming up from the minors any time soon.
Brandon McCarthy (Disabled List) - 3.39 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 2.0 WAR
McCarthy is doing awesome this year, putting everything together. This is what he was supposed to be when he was with the White Sox, and what the Rangers were trying to trade for when the dealt Danks for him. McCarthy is injury prone, but he is coming off the DL in a couple days, and besides, he's worth it for his tweets.
Rich Harden - 3.00 ERA, 3.11 FIP, 0.1 WAR
So holy crap! Harden came off the DL! And he was dominant! Wait, this seems like when he was on the A's before. It seems that familiar scenery helped Harden get back to the Harden of old. How long he can stay off the DL is a matter of Weeks (I hear he gives a good arm rub). Until then, Harden will be filling in for the rotation. The question of course is, if Harden stays dominant, who goes to the bullpen?
Guillermo Moscoso - 2.51 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 0.1 WAR
Moscoso has been a pleasant surprise filling in for our injured starters, but the FIP and xFIP tell a different story. I think it is safe to say that Moscoso will be bullpen bound, and time will tell if he can pull a Cahill and sustain the shiny ERA in spite of the peripherals.
Josh Outman - 3.10 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 0.6 WAR
Outman has come back from TJ Surgery strong, although with a rather low K/9. I expect him to either be bullpen bound or back to AAA to keep starting.
Graham Godfrey - 4.24 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 0.1 WAR
The gem (can I say that?) of the Scutaro trade (dump), Godfrey is what he is, a fill in Xth starter when all else is injured.
Relief Pitching:
Andrew Bailey - 0.79 ERA, 1.53 FIP, 0.6 WAR
Grant Balfour - 2.48 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 0.3 WAR
Mike Wuertz - 2.49 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 0.2 WAR
Brian Fuentes - 5.09 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 0.0 WAR
Brad Ziegler - 1.86 ERA, 2.32 FIP, 0.6 WAR
Joey Devine - 2.60 ERA, 2.48 FIP, 0.3 WAR
Fautino De Los Santos
Trystan Magnuson
Combined with the backup starters, our bullpen is pretty good right now... or it should be, now that Bailey is back. The strange thing is, our bullpen kept failing us, but looking at the stats, the only really bad one is... Fuentes... And Fuentes has the highest inning count of any other relieve on the team. Fuentes's stats show him to be pretty much a LOOGY, or a Ricardo Rincon for old school A's fans. If he is only facing Lefties, he has a pretty ERA, but he still drives everyone who watches him play for their team wild, and incites joy from opposing team's fans, because while he can get lefty's out, righties will cream him. This, more than anything (except, perhaps, the complete lack of offense0, is what killed Bob Geren's tenure with the A's - the insistence of playing your worst reliever in the highest leverage situations in roles which he should not be in.
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How many teams in MLB have 10 SP options that are good?
Historically I don’t think any team has ever come close in wheeling out SP after SP who do nothing but not give up runs. Godfrey is the only legit stretch that’s been made, all 10 guys we have could make 30 starts on most teams, ranging from ace to 4th. That’s really good. That’s why blowing up the team makes no sense.
Makes me wonder
If we should be open to trading any of our starters for a big bat or two. It seems with the current ballpark, we have a little more success with “average” starters and can put other pitchers out there without losing too much.
I don't follow your logic.
If Oakland has ten(ish) starters, but no offense and no real chance of competing, isn’t that the perfect recipe for selling? If you can hock off four decent starters and get a couple decent prospects in return, then you’re still able to field a decent rotation a couple years down the road, hopefully with a more capable offense behind them.
The A's also need production from shortstop and DH. And that Sizemore isn't a mirage made out of a .375 BABIP. And that Weeks makes quick adjustments when pitchers start pounding his weaknesses.
They need a lot to compete, actually, including a healthy staff that does not include Moscoso and Godfrey. Halfway through the season, the A’s are 7.0 games back, probably closer to 13.0 GB if things stay the same over the rest of the season. If all they did was improve 1B and RF, they’d need 5 WAR guys at both positions to even sniff the Rangers.
What 5-6 WAR players are you planning to acquire and how the hell are you going to acquire them? I honestly don’t even know that it’s possible with the A’s injured pitching staff and awful farm system.
oh look, jose reyes left the mets game with an aggravated hamstring
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Oh good, we can trade for him now
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 2, 2011 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions
YES.
#Athletics vs. #Dbacks: Weeks 2b, Sizemore 3b, Crisp cf, Matsui dh, Carter 1b, Jackson lf, Suzuki c, DeJesus rf, Rosales ss
From Slusser’s twitter.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Any team that has Crisp hitting 3rd will never be good.
and rad, sit Penny right as he comes good. Great move.
Although Sizemore deserved the bump.
I hate every lineup that doesnt look like this:
Weeks-Sizemore-Matsui-Willingham-DeJesus-Carter-Sweeney-Suzuki-Pennington
So you want a worse hitter 3rd.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Good to see DDJ in against a LHP.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
If Anderson can come back healthy and ace-like before the trade deadline...
I think we ought to trade him. There are few teams in contention that couldn’t use a top of the rotation starter for a playoff/World Series push. I’d hate to lose him, as he obviously has tons of talent, but we don’t need any more injury concerns and I think other teams would overlook that a little more mid season.
"Juuuuust a bit outside" - Harry Doyle
by ArunisArun on Jul 2, 2011 2:59 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Quick OT thought: Ellis is still a type A, correct?
So, we are definitely getting one of their draft picks from this year then, right?
not exactly
Since Ellis has a high yearly pay the A’s knew he wouldn’t be offered arbitration. More than likely the A’s were given a list of players to choose from the better Ellis does the better player they will get to choose.
Cool, thanks for clearing that up.
I thought that might be the case. So now we HAVE to root for him to kick ass now, huh? haha
you misread
Ellis is getting the Rockies 2 picks for the 2012 draft. They cant trade their newly-drafted players for 6 months. So I’m asking if the players they drafted in 2011 can be traded for Ellis, which is true.
More likely,
it would be a player from the Rockies 2010 draft class who signed at the deadline last August. A player can’t be traded until one year after they sign a contract with the club who drafted them.
"Even if the plane is on autopilot, I don't want a monkey in the cockpit" - ilikeike
Maybe but there's the theoretical possibility that it could be a 2011 draftee, no?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 2, 2011 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions
A PTBNL must be named within 60 days of the trade,
and 60 days from the Mark Ellis trade is 8/29/11. No 2011 Rockies draftee will have been signed for a year by then. The first Rockies 2011 draftee signed on 6/14/11, so a year from that would be 6/14/12. So, no, a Rockies 2011 draftee cannot be included in the Mark Ellis trade. If, hypothetically, this trade was made on 6/1/12, then a Rockies 2011 draftee who had signed on 6/14/11 could be named as the PTBNL, then complete the trade on 6/14/12
"Even if the plane is on autopilot, I don't want a monkey in the cockpit" - ilikeike
6 months, not 60 days, no?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 3, 2011 6:24 AM PDT up reply actions
Ya, my bad.
but it still doesn’t change the main point, which is that no 2011 Rockies draftee will be a part of the Mark Ellis trade
"Even if the plane is on autopilot, I don't want a monkey in the cockpit" - ilikeike
Excellent plan of action!
May I further propose that we trade a not-very-good pitcher, who is prone to injury, for a high OPS+ batter with Ripken-like durability?
There is no "i" in Teamocil. At least not where you'd think.
by GreenNGoldSooner on Jul 2, 2011 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Let's not get carried away.
A Kouzmanoff for the rest of us!
by OptimistPrime on Jul 2, 2011 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Plus, if you want your ideas to be considered, it's always in your best interest to communicate such in pirate speak, as noted below:
Aye, may Me further propose that we trade a not-‘ery-good pitcher, who is prone t’ injury, for a high Ops+ batter with Ripken-like durability? Aye, me parrot concurs.
A Kouzmanoff for the rest of us!
by OptimistPrime on Jul 2, 2011 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions
but why is the rum gone?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Shiver me timbers
A Kouzmanoff for the rest of us!
by OptimistPrime on Jul 2, 2011 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions
"Squawk he's a lush! Squawk!"
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Haarrrrrrden for Peter Saarrrrrrsgaarrrrrd
A Kouzmanoff for the rest of us!
by OptimistPrime on Jul 2, 2011 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions
In all seriousness, I think Brandon McCarthy would make a nice trade piece, as would Bailey
A Kouzmanoff for the rest of us!
rather trade Ross, I think
They can be fairly equal when they’re on, and Ross has upside but injury risk (though I believe this oblique is unrelated and random). McCarthy is already a known injury risk anyway, and I can’t see a team giving up anything of value for him.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 2, 2011 5:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Ross is under team control for like 5 more years
how much is McCarthy under? 1? 2?
Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.
That's what's going to yield the best young hitter
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 2, 2011 8:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Why McCarthy?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 2, 2011 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Some of those players could garner a decent prospect in return.
And I meant everybody. I’d like to keep Weeks, Gonzalez and Carter, but I wouldn’t label anybody untouchable.
A little off topic, but
would anyone be for pursuing Jimmy Rollins at SS this offseason if the Phillies choose not to resign him? He’s had some injury issues (true Athletic at heart) and grew up in Oakland as a diehard A’s fan.
Business man by day, fearless couch guardian by night.
I like Rollins but I think he's getting a bit long in the tooth.
He’s also been in decline the last 3 years, add the Coliseum’s offense sapping character and it doesn’t look so hot.
Also I’m feeling this youth movement, as much as I’m not completely sold on Penny I’m willing to give him a mulligan for the first half of the year.
Not for 3/$45 or whatever he might demand
But $3/28M… okay. I guess.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 2, 2011 5:27 PM PDT up reply actions
That would terrify me.
He’d be an aging shortstop moving from a bandbox in the NL to a cavernous ballpark in the AL. He’s always been a little overrated, and Oakland would probably have to overpay for him on the open market.
Trevor, Gio, and Jemile, keep. Everyone else, up for trade bait ...
… provided they can either:
A) Make room for the likes of Taylor, Miller, Cardenas, and …
B) Get good prospects in return, or …
C) Get a real hitter (or two) in return.
With all that said, I would not mind one single bit seeing the older guys (who will free agents anyway), shipped for (good, solid) prospects, and bring up Taylor, Recker, Miller, even Cardenas.
At this point, I young, healthy, hungry, studs in the lineup, who have real power potential. Just throw ‘em in there, let ’em develop, and see what happens. At the very least, you’re sending a bunch of guys that have to potential to go yard every AB, and it would damn fun to watch. It would also generate more fan interest (something the A’s desperately need). Big boppers are what really put fannies in the seats.
Under this scenario, I’d try to keep Willingham around, so my lineup would look something like this:
2b – Jemile
3b – Sizemore, or some other good 3b acquired trading away Crisp and/or DDJ + a pitcher (not named Gio, Trevor, or Andrew).
DH – Matsui
LF – Willingham (Mats and Will trade off DH’ing and LF’ing, for health preservation)
1B – Carter
RF – Taylor
CF – Miller
C – Recker
SS – Pennington
Then Sweeney, Cojax, Rosales can fulfill their BU roles.
This lineup would have 6 of 9 capable of going yard every AB. It would keep opposing pitchers nervous/careful, and thus more walks and/or hittable FBs (or hanging curves).
True, Miller strikes out a lot. True, Taylor is a work in progress. True, Recker is a bit old in his development. True, Carter lacks good ‘D’. True, it could all blow up / fall flat.
But the potential is awesome, and it would be damn fun to watch. It would not be the same old boring, anemic A’s offense we’ve become accustomed to.
If this thing blossomed, people, including the ever elusive “casual fan” would start showing up to games.
They might even score 4 or more runs a game, and win regularly.
Then again, I’m probably full of it.
But dammit, I’m sick of boring, futile offense. I’m sick of defeatist, downer attitudes. I’m sick of fans being driven away by all the suckatude.
Everyone always suggests trading Bailey
Doesn’t he seem like a valuable player? Are closers just not as essential as a good starter/position player? I’m all for getting a good bat by trading him, but I’d also like to keep him around if we could.
(Yes, this is my inaugural post)
by Menechino_Incarnate on Jul 4, 2011 3:15 AM PDT reply actions
Have you ever read Moneyball? If not, you ought to. It's a good read, and it comes up a lot around AN.
In the book, I’m pretty sure they touch on this. Let’s say an average pitcher has an ERA of 4.50, meaning hypothetically he’ll allow one run every other inning. Since a “save” is basically not allowing a team to lose when you have a three run lead or less, any average pitcher should be able to save a high percentage of games. In fact, remember guys like Todd Jones, Armando Benitez, and Jose Mesa? All those guys have saved over a hundred games, while being average pitchers, talent-wise.
Here’s a snippet from the book:
“Established closers were systematically overpriced, in large part because of the statistic by which closers were judged in the marketplace: ‘saves.’ The very word made the guy who achieved them seem vitally important…. You could take a slightly above average pitcher and drop him into the closer’s role, let him accumulate some gaudy number of saves, and then sell him off. You could, in essence, buy a stock, pump it up with false publicity, and sell it off for much more than you paid for it.”
Bailey is a very good pitcher, and he’s also one of the A’s most valuable in terms of trade value. But as a reliever, he’s not ever going to be extremely valuable to a team overall, because it’s incredibly difficult to accumulate enough innings from the bullpen. Over the past ten years, Mariano Rivera has been the most valuable reliever by a long margin, and he’s only racked up 25.6 WAR (if you don’t know what WAR is, look it up; it’s an incredibly handy tool). In other words, he’s been about as valuable in terms of WAR as Juan Pierre and Luis Castillo over the same number of years.
Not that those players are really as bad as they seem. They kind of get a bad reputation. But the point is, if you were to trade Rivera, you could acquire Castillo or Pierre in a heartbeat, and definitely much, much more. Which is why Bailey is one of best trade chips. As a shutdown closer, he has a ton of perceived value, while being one of the easily replaceable players on the A’s roster. They won’t, but they could probably but Fautino de los Santos into his role and not miss a step.
Welcome!
I suppose most people want to trade Bailey because he is our only player of value right about now. We would get the most back for him. Also, we have 2 former closers (Fuentes, Balfour) ready to go if something transpires. Devine has closer ability, and Ziegler (back in the day) was also good. But that is only my opinion.
by player20 on Jul 4, 2011 4:03 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
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