Getting As Good As We've Given

by ru155 on Jul 13, 2011 3:18 PM PDT

As an A's fan this past week has been incredibly depressing. Fan posts pointing out the doom and gloom of the franchise's barren cupboard in the minors (Trainwreck), Selig pushing us off once again, Dick Williams passing, and the hated Giants becoming part of Showtimes sultry late night offering between 2:00AM - 5:00AM.

Having been destroyed by the Rangers in a must win series, the think the analysts tell us to throw in the towel. While I personally will never give up hope, I'd like to think that our management is thinking of ways to set us up for next year as this team has been miserable offensively.

I think it's time for Beane to shake off the dirt and get (as we all say on this board) a bat who is MLB ready/proven and under team control for the next couple years. Enough of the guys who are 2-3 years away or perhaps looking to find that magic for a late career swan-song. But I'm also realistic and I don't expect to pick up Jay Bruce or Sin Shoo Choo.

I do think we can pick up one person, and that person is Colby Rasmus.

I was hoping someone would do a post on potential trade partners, but after waiting 2 days, I have to cut through the fog of the All-Star break and just toss this up there.

NL Central Race

For the first time in about 20 years, the Pirates are in the division race turning the Central into a 4-team race, with the Wild Card race in play as well. A race for two slots. The Cards don't want to waste their last year controlling Albert Pujols with Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman providing additional fireworks.

The Brewers drew first blood by trading for K-Rod, the Pirates think they can shore up most of their team internally with perhaps the addition of a serviceable catcher, and the Cards are in need of a solid dose of pitching.

Cardinals Pitching

They are said to be looking for a starter and a lefty reliever – two things the A’s have - and they’re making Colby Rasmus available for the right price according to MLBTR. However they've already boosted their budget by $16MM this year above last year. Do they feel like taking on a lot of contract money? I don't particularly think so.

The Birds are righty dominant among their top relievers in closer Fernando Salas, set-up man Eduardo Sanchez, Jason Motte and Mitchell Boggs. The lone lefty is Trever Miller who currently sports a 4.91 FIP, 0.89 K/BB, and 1.63 WHIP.

The starting pitching features Carpenter, and then after that Garcia and Lohse has been good, not great. While Westbrook and McClellan have struggled. Serviceable pitching, but not a World Series rotation.

Rasmus is having a slow first half (.246/.329/.413), but it's hard to imagine him maintaining last year's very high .354 BABIP, coupled with below average defense the past two years – although he was great in 2009 – the Cards have budged and are willing to deal him. At a certain point it's potential vs. production and with enough games under his belt, he's become a known commodity.

A year or so ago, Rasmus was an untouchable, but now that he's become a bit of a clubhouse problem with his request to be traded, and a talented backup the Cards can deal him to stay in the race. Their latest talent: John Jay (.304/.352/.438 in 248 PA) in the 4th-OF position making Rasmus that much more expendable considering their needs.

Just noticed this Fangraphs article as i was picking up the numbers for Rasmus: Fangraphs Article

Rasmus hit 23 HR last year and is currently on pace to meet that again this year. At 24 he can still develop more power and I'd love to have a stable outfield with enough pop to support the pitching. With 3 more years of team control and our current outfield full of FAs after this season, I think we should ship a pitcher package for this MLB talent.

As far as lefty relievers we've got Brian Fuentes and Craig Breslow - either would be a welcomed addition to the Red Birds staff. While they might balk a bit at Fuentes' contract I think the real question is - who do we give up on the starting end?

McCarthy has been our rebound hero this year and he's a cheap addition for the Cards with his $1MM/year contract. And I'm doubtful the A's would part with Cahill, Gio, or Anderson. But beyond that we've got Tyson Ross, Josh Outman, Rich Harden, Guillermo Moscoso.

I'm not a great judge of pitchers, so I'll let ya'll fight over that part. But I'd like the A's to take advantage of the market and pick up some pieces that can be instrumental to a 2-3 year run from 2012-2014.

I'm on the east coast so i'm about to hit the metro, will be back to respond after.

Go A's!

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Comments

I would love to trade Cahill for Rasmus straight up.

I feel like that’s a significant upgrade for them to win more now, but we would eventually get the better of the deal. Immediate playoffs success is worth losing a deal over, its a win-win for both teams.

by PL78 on Jul 13, 2011 4:03 PM PDT reply actions

Well if Breslow + a lesser starter gets it done I am certainly more in favor of that.

by Billy Frijoles on Jul 13, 2011 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions

but it won't

by colin on Jul 14, 2011 5:12 AM PDT up reply actions

My current thinking is that if you're going to trade Cahill

you need to get back more than one important piece, so if trading Cahill for Rasmus I’d want to get Allen Craig, who can play OF, 3B, and probably 1B, in the deal.

Would Cahill and Breslow net you Rasmus and Craig? Someone more versed in trades can weigh in on who gets the short end of that deal.

That might solve an OF spot and 1B (I’d be surprised if Craig couldn’t handle 1B), and two slots in the middle of the order. Then you’d want to sign a decent FA SP in the off-season, which the A’s might actually be able to do.

Don’t fool yourself into thinking the rotation is ok if you trade Cahill. It isn’t. Anderson, Braden, McCarthy, and Ross have significant injury histories that tell you your rotation might often be Gonzalez, Outman, Moscoso, maybe one of those guys, and whomever you can sign to join the rotation. That someone needs to be pretty good or your rotation isn’t “all that”.

But…This lineup starts to look pretty ok, first without re-signing any of the 3 OFs and then with each one of the OFs re-signed (while the other two walk):

Weeks – 2B
Rasmus – CF
Carter – DH
Craig – 1B
Sweeney – RF
Sizemore – 3B
Taylor – LF
Suzuki – C
Pennington – SS

Weeks – 2B
Rasmus – CF
Carter – DH
Willingham – LF
Craig – 1B
Sweeney – RF
Sizemore – 3B
Suzuki – C
Pennington – SS

Weeks – 2B
Crisp – CF
Carter – DH
Rasmus – RF
Craig – 1B
Sweeney – RF
Sizemore – 3B
Suzuki – C
Pennington – SS

Weeks – 2B
Rasmus – CF
Carter – DH
Craig – 1B
DeJesus – RF
Sizemore – 3B
Sweeney – LF
Suzuki – C
Pennington – SS

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 13, 2011 6:01 PM PDT reply actions

Therein lies the rub

We can’t get our money and our chicks for free. If the Cards were willing to give us Craig and Rasmus for Cahill + Breslow, I would do that in a heartbeat. Given Rasmus “Buy Low” status, I would love to see Beane pull that one out of the bag.

Yes, the most valuable commodity is good, young pitching, so I say we use some of it to net us a bevvy of MLB-ready talent.

I too am scared of our rotation sans Cahill. Behind him we have talent, but talent that doesn’t take the mound every 5th day. He has been our most healthy, reliable starter so far – so I hope the Cards see him that way as well.

It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.

by ru155 on Jul 13, 2011 6:28 PM PDT up reply actions

He's also a year younger than Rasmus and he's signed to a very reasonable deal for the next SIX years

Six years of Cahill is worth a good bit more than 3 arbitration seasons of Rasmus.

Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR

by mikev on Jul 13, 2011 6:34 PM PDT up reply actions

true

that’s why Nico is asking for both Rasmus and Craig. Rasmus has 3 arb years and Craig is a rookie. I’d say you’re getting a true CY Young contended in Cahill who finished top 5 last year, so you’re immediately boosting the two areas of issue w/ Breslow for the long haul – and they’ve got plenty of other offensive positions to count on production.

It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.

by ru155 on Jul 13, 2011 6:38 PM PDT up reply actions

Maybe not Craig, but see about Matthew Adams, Zach Cox or Shelby Miller?

Evens it up a lot.

by PL78 on Jul 13, 2011 6:41 PM PDT up reply actions

I think the one with Crisp resigned is the best team.

as shown by this year, Crisp is even quite valuable when he’s having an off-year, with bad plate discipline, a slightly low BABIP, and the fact that UZR hasn’t liked him.

But I’m not convinced by the idea of Craig at 1B being an “answer.” I think it’s quite possible he would be able to put up a 2 WAR season, but honestly, I think Daric Barton has a better chance. Craig is riding high off a .395 BABIP right now, and yes, part of it is that he’s a good hitter… but not all of it. ZiPS projects a .351 wOBA the rest of the way, which is above average but not great for a 1B with unknown defensive qualities.

I might use Craig as a utility player the way the Cardinals have, or flip him. I’d say if he’s playing 1B, there’s probably still a problem (unless it somehow means the A’s were able to get some serious upgrades somewhere else).

"I think what baseball projects, and what classical music needs, is the sense that one goes to a live event not to experience greatness, but to experience the possibility of greatness.... Not every game is great but what we go for is the chance that this particular game might be.' —David Lang

by King Richard on Jul 14, 2011 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions

I should have noted you could put Craig in LF

and go with Barton at 1B. Craig has always been thought of as a good hitter. In fact, he was Sickels “This guy can f—ing hit!” player, an award previously issued to…Josh Willingham. So you could opt for:
Weeks – 2B
Crisp – CF
Carter – DH
Rasmus – RF
Craig – LF
Barton – 1B
Sizemore – 3B
Suzuki – C
Pennington – SS

which might be best of all. I’d probably flip Crisp and Barton, but the A’s won’t so I’m leaving it like that.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 14, 2011 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, that certainly has the potential to be above average.

The pitching is going to be a serious problem though. It would be nice to be able to sign someone, but here’s the list for next year’s FA SP crop, from Cot’s:

Mark Buehrle CWS
Chris Carpenter STL *
Bruce Chen KC
Aaron Cook COL *
Kyle Davies KC
Ryan Dempster CHC *
Justin Duchscherer OAK
Zach Duke ARI *
Jeff Francis KC
Freddy Garcia NYY
Jon Garland LAD *
Aaron Harang SD
Rich Harden OAK
Livan Hernandez WAS
Edwin Jackson CWS
Kenshin Kawakami ATL
Scott Kazmir LAA
Hiroki Kuroda LAD
Rodrigo Lopez CHC
Paul Maholm PIT
John Maine COL
Jason Marquis WAS
Kevin Millwood NYY
Scott Olsen PIT *
Roy Oswalt PHI *
Brad Penny DET
Oliver Perez NYM
Joel Pineiro LAA
CC Sabathia NYY (may opt out)
Carlos Silva NYY
Javier Vazquez FLA
Adam Wainwright STL *
Tim Wakefield BOS
Chien-Ming Wang WAS
Brandon Webb ARI
C.J. Wilson TEX
Chris Young NYM

Wainwright is the best player on here, and his option will be picked up, although he is out for the year.

Other than that… Kuroda…? Would C.J. Wilson sign with the lawyers?

by King Richard on Jul 14, 2011 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions

I forgot... Yu Darvish?

I’d sign him.

by King Richard on Jul 14, 2011 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions

That brings up another really important question:

Is there anyone overseas who might be a FA the A’s can sign? Remember how suddenly the M’s got better when they signed Ichiro, the Yanks with Matsui, the Angels with Kendrys Morales, even the Red Sox (for a short time) with Matsusaka.

From the list above, perhaps the most realistic good target is Kuroda. I’m guessing, to my chagrin, that Texas will re-sign CJ Wilson.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 14, 2011 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions

If I were the A's, I'd put as much money as possible into signing Yu Darvish.

Of course, that’s probably not enough.

by King Richard on Jul 14, 2011 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions

how's that japanese guy doing?

the one we failed to sign this offseason.

It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.

by ru155 on Jul 14, 2011 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions

Hisashi Iwakuma

The A’s won the posting rights, so no other team could sign him. Since we didn’t, he’s back in Japan playing for Rakuten again.

I don’t know how to scale Japanese League stats to what we’re used to but these numbers look pretty darn impressive.

In six games he’s pitched 47 innings, with one complete game and one shutout (presumably the same game), 41 SO to 8 BB, and has a 1.72 ERA.

Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.

by iglew on Jul 15, 2011 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions

If fan graph projection is in the ball park (20 hrs

And 250 avg) we would be insane to think about including Cahill in deal where Rasmus was center piece of what got back. Trevor may be the most valuable player in baseball, given what we will get for what we will pay in next 5 years

by Alvin Dark on Jul 13, 2011 8:59 PM PDT reply actions

no, Trevor Cahill is nowhere near close to the most valuable player in baseball.

by mikev on Jul 13, 2011 9:19 PM PDT up reply actions

longoria

the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust

by stm72 on Jul 13, 2011 9:53 PM PDT up reply actions

it's not even remotely close either, and it ain't cahill for damn sure

by mikev on Jul 13, 2011 10:03 PM PDT up reply actions

and the answer is?

love to see the names, given how obvious they all are

by Alvin Dark on Jul 14, 2011 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions

Well they haven't finished this year's list, but here's Fangraphs' list of the Top 50

This is entry #26-30.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2011-trade-value-30-26/

by King Richard on Jul 14, 2011 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions

Trevor Cahill is #35, so there are 34 players ahead of him according to Fangraphs.

by King Richard on Jul 14, 2011 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions

Longoria, and it's pretty much a no brainer.

He’s already been worth 20 WAR in his career (worth over $90M)

His contract is 6 years, 17.5M, plus 7.5, 11, and 11.5M options. If all his options are picked up AND his 2011 kicker for being arby eligible raises his salary from 2M to 2.5M, he will make a total of 45 million dollars by the end of the 2016 season.

That’s 45 million dollars in surplus value even if he suffers a career ending injury tomorrow and never plays again. It’s pretty much the most team friendly contract in the history of forever.

by mikev on Jul 14, 2011 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions

thought Longoria "not even remotely close either"

what, are you (nearly) as stupid as i am?

by Alvin Dark on Jul 14, 2011 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions

Pretty sure he meant in the original comment that

Longoria is so far and away the most valuable player in terms of bang for the buck that whoever is second isn’t even close.

Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day

by PDXAthleticsfan on Jul 14, 2011 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions

I honestly have no idea what the hell that means

Although I’m pretty stupid, but I don’t know how stupid you are so I can’t compare.

by mikev on Jul 14, 2011 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions

i said longoria above and you said no. then when somebody asked who, you said longoria.

the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust

by stm72 on Jul 14, 2011 9:15 PM PDT up reply actions

You love posting before youve finished reading, dont you?

the part after “May be the most valuable” goes “given what we will pay in next 5 years”.

There’s decent odds he will outperform his $ WAR mightily vs his contract over the next 5 years.

by PL78 on Jul 13, 2011 10:19 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah...and even then, "most valuable player in baseball, given what we will pay in the next 5 years" is absolutely ridiculous.

by danmerqury on Jul 13, 2011 10:27 PM PDT up reply actions

Honestly it moves from top 100 to top 50 or so, but its not entirely the worst thing ever to say

If you guys werent all hypersensitive about every single word you wouldnt scare away any new poster who dare have an opinion of their own. Grow up.

by PL78 on Jul 14, 2011 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions

really? give me your list genius

by Alvin Dark on Jul 14, 2011 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions

1. Evan Longoria

2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.

Longoria’s contract is THAT good.

by danmerqury on Jul 14, 2011 7:50 PM PDT up reply actions

Yes, especially when you post, because it's not worth reading.

by mikev on Jul 14, 2011 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions

Sheesh, and people say I dont react well to people calling me out on my bullshit.

You go directly to petty insults, wow, what a really swell dude.

by PL78 on Jul 14, 2011 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions

No, actually, you started with the petty bullshit because

A) You for some reason assume I don’t know what the post meant
B) You seem to think I didn’t read all of it
C) You somehow think that “a decent chance he outperforms his $/WAR” means anything.

As I said before, there is pretty much zero chance that Cahill is the most valuable player in baseball, and that means WAR vs $ because I don’t really give 2 shits about the actual MVP award, so I don’t know WTF else you’d think I would be talking about when I am talking about value.

Go ahead and go back to posting rumors as facts now

by mikev on Jul 14, 2011 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions

I think you might be twisting the definition.

When people say “valuable” in terms of MVP, they’re not talking about value for their money, but absolute performance. If an A-Rod hits 50 HRs, you’re not going to give the MVP to somebody who hit 10 HRs for a tenth of the money because he was “better value”.

by GlassHeart on Jul 14, 2011 6:56 PM PDT up reply actions

I would think that any trade with St. Louis

would have to include a bullpen arm from us…We have a surplus of solid relievers, their pen could certainly use upgrades…

Kiper+Fosse=Mute

by CorpseOfChavez on Jul 13, 2011 9:35 PM PDT reply actions

I don’t think Rasmus for Cahill is worth it. I think maybe Mosocoso Blevins and Breslow would be fantastic.

I am not all informative like others on here but Cahill should NOT be included.

by MatZt on Jul 13, 2011 9:45 PM PDT reply actions

that is a completely unrealistic trade

Kiper+Fosse=Mute

by CorpseOfChavez on Jul 13, 2011 9:48 PM PDT up reply actions

Would YOU take a AAA journeyman and two mediocre-to-okay relievers in return for Colby Rasmus?

by danmerqury on Jul 13, 2011 10:28 PM PDT up reply actions

hell no! :-)

Every man for himself...

by MMunoz33 on Jul 14, 2011 8:10 AM PDT up reply actions

this sounds like the newest episode of the Squidbillies as MLB GM.

Every man for himself...

by MMunoz33 on Jul 14, 2011 8:11 AM PDT up reply actions

Apparently Jeremy Hellickson is on the Cardinals list.

6th best prospect going into the year….yeah so we don’t have anyone close to that who is not in the Big 3. Still no beef letting Cahill go for Rasmus, guys like him dont come around often, and we can make up for Cargo in one move. Rasmus means a lot more to us than Cahill does, and Cahill means more to them than he does here.

by PL78 on Jul 13, 2011 10:26 PM PDT reply actions

That's nice posturing by the Cards

But there’s no way the Rays make that trade. I’m sure the Cards would love to pick up a cheap topline starter for a player who has done well, but not great. Rasmus is completely expendable, so i think a good GM will see that the Cards just need to get a solid rotation piece and some good relievers. They’re in a tight race and their lineup can carry them into the postseason, but they’ll need the pitching to get out of the first 2 rounds battling against the Phillies.

Rays never trade their young stars – which is the right thing to do with such an amazing pipeline. Hell, they’re in contention so I don’t see why they’d give up a great rotation piece for a guy who doesn’t beat their current roster by a significant margin.

BJ Upton (2 yrs left), Sam Fuld (rookie), Matt Joyce (rookie), Johnny Damon (FA), and with Desmond Jennings waiting in the wings.

So being the cost conscious team they are, i doubt they add Rasmus at the expense of a cheap rookie starter who has excelled.

It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.

by ru155 on Jul 14, 2011 7:01 AM PDT up reply actions

Overall my main point is that the Cardinals are in a tough negotiating position. Lance Berkman’s resurgence, Matt Holliday crushing it, Pujols coming back – but their pitching isn’t deep enough and they have some solid expendable pieces to pick up the stuff for a title run.

I want Beane & Co. to take advantage of that. Cards can posture all they want, but they’re the ones with the holes and need to win NOW. Lets give them what they need, but get some players that will service our own title run for the next 3 years.

It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.

by ru155 on Jul 14, 2011 7:05 AM PDT up reply actions

Agreed.

by PL78 on Jul 14, 2011 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions

Not quite never

Delmon Young and Dewon Brazelton are two young stars that the Rays traded.

Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.

by iglew on Jul 15, 2011 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions

St. Louis writer

thinks they’ll be stuck together - Don’t Give Up Rasmus
He doesn’t want the team to sell low on him, but he admits they need pitching and their demand for a young top-rotation potential starter is fair.

Well, I think we can push these guys. The Reds now are searching for bullpen help as well, increasing demand for a product that would directly affect St. Louis’ season.

You can smell the anxiety in the article, and when there’s blood, it’s just a matter of closing in on the deadline to make them just desperate enough to react and give him up.

It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.

by ru155 on Jul 14, 2011 2:10 PM PDT reply actions

Cahill has options extending through 2017

That means that he’s under team control for as long as almost any player we could trade for and probably much longer, albeit he will be more expensive. You trade Cahill because you’re cheap, not because you can’t win now. I don’t see any scenarios in which Cahill gets traded.

by DDroney on Jul 14, 2011 11:23 PM PDT reply actions