A "Rebuild" That Has Become A Full "Trainwreck"
by Nico on Jul 10, 2011 3:54 PM PDT
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PrintHowdy and welcome to the ASB, friends... I want to leave these excellent quatrains of Nicodamus up on the FP for today, as the BlogFather has said some things worth chewing on for more than just half of a Sunday, IMO. If you haven't as of yet, please read and comment on this piece on the Coliseum that I came up with late last week and of which I am marginally proud... otherwise enjoy the break and the All-Star Game tomorrow in which Gio Gonzalez will dominate his three hitters and singlehandedly cause a resurgence of Hope for the A's future that's largely disappeared of late.
--Josh/EN
Sure, the fan in all of us is impatient that the A's have not had a winning record for 5 years, but at some level most of us understand and appreciate that small-market teams are simply going to periodically have stretches of 4-5 down years to rebuild and that these past 5 years have followed a period of success from 2000-06.
The problem isn't that the A's have failed to be competitive for 5 years in a row. The problem is that right now, in the middle of 2011, the A's sit in a worse position than they did at this time in 2007, in every way. And if you're courageous enough to jump, I'll tell you exactly what I mean...
The current 2011 major league team is worse than the 2007 team was at the time of the A's big sell-off. But that's the least of the issue, because rebuilding is about looking beyond the major league team's current record and about setting the team up to be good in the future.
Since 2007 began the A's have been trying to rebuild their farm system, and trying to fill holes at various positions. I'm not going to count their regular draft picks as part of the "rebuilding" process, simply because the A's didn't endure a terrible record to get good draft position -- they have been drafting 13th-16th, which is what they would have done had they not dealt off Danny Haren, Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, Nick Swisher, etc., but had just tried to stay as good as possible without rebuilding.
So where are we today? What has all the rebuilding over 5 years produced? Certainly it has produced the one thing the A's seem to be able to draft and develop, or sign on the free agent market: Pitchers. The rebuilding has produced Gio Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, and Fautino de los Santos, without question.
How about position players? Fasten your seat belts and pop a few Tums. Position by position:
Catcher: Josh Donaldson, who isn't so much "better than you think" as he is "about what we thought," projects to be a backup catcher if he makes it at all. He's batting .262/.326/.458 as a 25-year old at AAA. Meanwhile the incumbent, Kurt Suzuki, seems to be getting worse offensively and defensively each year.
First Base: Daric Barton has had two bad seasons and one great one, has established almost no ability to hit for power or slugging, and is currently struggling at AAA. It is looking more and more like Barton will not figure in the A's plans for their next contending team going forward.
Chris Carter is believed to be unable to handle the position defensively, and is currently 4/30 with 4 singles in the big leagues. He really isn't in the 1B conversation going forward because sooner or later -- and I have a feeling it's going to be sooner, as in right about now -- the A's will finally conclude that he is a DH and that's where he'll land.
Second Base: It's great that Jemile Weeks has been a rare bright light, but he's not the result of rebuilding, he's the result of a mid-round draft pick. Adrian Cardenas doesn't play 2B anymore, and there is certainly no exciting 2B prospect ready for the big leagues -- which would still be helpful as that mythical player could be traded to fill another need. But he doesn't exist, as the A's rebuilding the last 5 years has not brought back a major league quality 2Bman.
Shortstop: Still Cliff Pennington. Grant Green, who may or may not stick at SS, was, like Weeks, drafted with a mid-round draft pick, and the rebuilding the last 5 years has not brought back a major league quality SS.
Third Base: Personally, I would not categorize Scott Sizemore as a "rebuilding" acquisition, because he was picked up as part of a series of "ordinary trades involving spare parts" that teams make all the time whether they're rebuilding or not -- Rajai Davis for two middle relief prospects, one of whom was dealt for David Purcey, who was then spun off for Sizemore. However, since it was a trade that happened from 2007-2011, let's add Sizemore to the conversation.
Sizemore has been a bright light. I'm still concerned that his line against RHP is all of .200/.276/.295, which makes him more like Donnie Murphy than any other recent comp, and no one has suggested that he will ever be a great defensive 3Bman, but he's done a nice job. Behind him? Nada. And by nada, I mean Kevin Kouzmanoff and Cardenas (who also isn't playing there anymore either). The only prospect you might get hopeful about for the near future is Steven Parker, whom the A's drafted. That's right: the rebuilding the last 5 years did not secure a major league quality 3Bman.
Outfield: Michael Taylor was certainly a nice try, but at age 25 he has rebounded from a dreadful AAA year to post "hold your own" numbers and nothing more (.273/.348/.454 with 9 HRs). After Taylor, you would have to go to Ryan Sweeney, a 4th OFer on any good team. And that's it. High upside players who might help turn this trainwreck around? Michael Choice is not only 2 years away, but he's also another A's mid-round pick, not part of the rebuilding effort.
What the A's have in the OF is a trio all poised to file for free agency at the end of the season, with no one on the roster, or in the wings, who appears to be a good bet to be any better than the incumbents who will be free agents.
The Scary Reality
Basically, when you look at position players now or in the near future, the best position player the A's have to show for 5 years of rebuilding is...Scott Sizemore. If you even count him, which you probably shouldn't . In which case it's Daric Barton, who appears to be able to OBP somewhere between .325-.393, with no slugging, at 1B and is currently in free-fall. And then it's...Sweeney?
Do you realize what an epic failure it is to rebuild for 5 years, and at the end of it not have improved yourself in the lineup any more than "maybe Scott Sizemore at 3B if you squint and even call that part of the rebuild"?
So it's either deal Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez, and assure yourself of being terrible for another 3-5 years, or try to draw blood from a stone and find valuable players when you don't have valuable players you can offer in return.
The time to do that was these past 5 years. How did the A's fail at this so completely?
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Added up, it really does make you wonder just what the hell they've been doing the whole time
Last of the Ninth - Photography
That Carlos Gonzalez trade really set the A's organiztion back...
Every man for himself...
by MMunoz33 on Jul 10, 2011 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions 7 recs
moving Gonzalez, Greg Smith, and Huston Street for a half a year rental of Holliday
which netted us Michal Taylor wasn’t a good move.
The Danny Haren and Nick Swisher trades were great though.
Every man for himself...
You obviously don't understand ghosts very well.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 10, 2011 8:12 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
because cargo will be a all star for the next 10 years and we will absolutely nothing to show for it
Well he isn't this year.
But I guess these things always skip the years ending in “1”?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Hasn't been one yet
Though last year’s near-MVP season was great, yes.
But he’s still got to prove he can sustain it and not just benefit from playing half his games in Denver.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
But CarGon is God On The Mountain!!!
At one point in my life I liked Dave Kingman more than Rickey Henderson. I was stupid.
by the_rozeboom on Jul 10, 2011 9:09 PM PDT up reply actions
I just looked up his current home/road splits compared to last year's
Good Lord.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
His L/R splits are pretty dramatic too.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Hmm, now that's not a good sign
Last year they were very good on both sides.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
True
It’ll take more time to see what’s real for him there, at least.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
That's probably one of the most shocking things in The Book.
For RHB’s, it takes 2000 PAs for the splits to become 50% reliable. That’s insane. LHB is “only” 1000, but still.
Can you explain how you came up with that number?
Or give me a link to something that can explain it? That seems like quite a lot of AB’s to get reliable info.
Just to be clear,
by “The Book” they mean the Bible.
{That’ll keep him busy!}
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
No for reals
What book is he referring to, out of curiosity?
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
NVM, answered own question
Saw dan’s post below
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
It's really called The Book
by Tom Tango, Michael Lichtman, and Andy Dolphin
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
It's in The Book, by Tom Tango.
But essentially, they ran a regression analysis to see how large of a sample size it took before the numbers became 50% consistent with themselves for a particular player. And that sample size is 2000 PAs against LHPs. It’s crazy.
Here's what I'm genuinely curious about
(I don’t profess to have any answers). A guy like DeJesus this year, his LH numbers are so bizarrely low, out of the blue, but if you see every game it’s also apparent that he’s hit a lot of well-hit balls for outs against RHP, but really hasn’t had that happen nearly as much against LHP.
In other words, he seems to truly be having far worse ABs in general against LHP, not just some “SSS bad luck statistical noise”.
Why? How does one explain not just a sudden one-year L/R split anomaly, but also a process and PAs that fully match?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Well, in the case of DeJesus,
he actually has enough PAs for us to draw a reasonable conclusion about his platoon split skills (since he has 1248 PAs against LHP). And that split is rather wide.
wRC+ vs RHP: 115
wRC+ vs LHP: 83
That said, his numbers this year are ridiculous. He has a NEGATIVE 28 wRC+ against LHP this year. I’d guess that most of that is luck and random variation, but it’s true, he’s definitely a worse batter against LHP. Just…not this much worse.
Thing is, he's looked every bit "that much worse"
Makes me wonder how much of it has gotten in his head, or whether there was a vicious cycle under Geren of “don’t play because you don’t hit well, can’t hit better because you don’t play.”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Combination of both probably
A, he’s subpar against LHP anyways, and 2, he’s having a flukishly bad (for him) year against LHP on top of that.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Along with "God hates the A's."
I’m just hoping maybe Desme will put in a good word.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I keep thinking that the team needs a full-time
exorcist, and he should travel with the team. And while he’s at it…. what size bat does he prefer?
by LoneStranger on Jul 10, 2011 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions
I explain it that he's playing for the demotivational A's
Hey dad, I got this guy's autograph, Rollie
Fingers. Who's he?
He's likely a lot like Barton,
in that Barton isn’t as good as a .393 OBP or as bad as a .325 OBP.
Gonzalez’ true ability is as a “good hacker” who has power but not discipline, raw ability but not consistency. In a typical year in a neutral park, I’d expect him to put up a line of about .260/.330/.450 with 22 HRs and good defense. Which the A’s could use, but isn’t fantastic or anything.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Oh, it'd be nice to get that out of him if we still had him
But he’s hardly a lock to be a routine All-Star for the next decade. You’re talking about someone building a HOF resume at that point.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Well, the numbers I guessed at
won’t get you to the All-Star game (unless you’re Jeter).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
i think nico's guess at a park neutral stat line is reasonable
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
David DeJesus is downright COUNTING on that!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
though it was still a BAD trade
you can take smith out of the equation. he is somewhere in the yankees organization now
by heartstopper on Jul 11, 2011 7:57 AM PDT up reply actions
I thought that players in contract years were suppose to have great years. Yet, our to be free agents choose to have really aweful years.
Or it may be that Willingham, Crisp, DeJesus, and Matsui are all simply mediocre players on good teams.
The first three have been good players
On mediocre teams. But they’ve also been injured…makes you wonder if DeJesus’ injury last year changed his batting…
by OaklandSi on Jul 10, 2011 4:40 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
the blame goes to the one doing the trades/signings
Mr. Billy Beane. We all thought Geren needed to go, and I thought so as well. Now, I really do think Beane needs to go. If you’re going to rebuild, then TOTALLY rebuild, including the front office. But I highly doubt he’s even close to losing his job.
I think that Billy may
be kicked upstairs or side-ways in the organization, sooner rather than later.
by robertmelvin on Jul 10, 2011 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions
won't happen
As I wrote in the earlier post, Beane is part owner, and Wolfe won’t do it. What we need is an somebody with experience in building an offense. Beane and his cronies have been great with pitching,
but have put together about 5 years of a substandard offensive club.
yeah it won't happen as long as Wollf is owner, I agree
but it is a little frustrating that the front office keeps whiffing on offensive guys. The ones they do get that are good (Gonzalez, Pena, Cruz, Ethier), seems like they give up on them WAAAY to early.
Might not be true, that could be my frustration talking.
well then i'm frustrated too
i can’t stand seeing our entire offense spread across the MLB.
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
yep
dude only got 124 at bats with the A’s before he was traded. You look at his career numbers in O.Co Stadium ….
173 ABs, 39 hits, 24 runs, 13 HRs, 30 RBIs, .225 avg.
Would he be the same Carlos Pena he is now? Don’t know … but I believe it’s the same as CarGo … he’d be better than anything we have right now. But trading Pena did end starting a chain that got us Bobby Kielty and his awesome hair, eventually. So that’s a positive.
Again, I know I’m probably being nitpicky, but I’m just totally frustrated that I see all these former A’s going to other teams and becoming very good players. Beane has done decent with pitching prospects, but doesn’t seem to have a grip on how to build an offense (at least post steroid era.) I don’t wanna be Mr. The Sky is Falling … I just wanna see my A’s win ….. a lot. From what I’ve seen in the last few years …. Im not so sure it’ll be with Beane here. I’m hoping he proves me totally wrong.
Considering Pena went through other organizations as well before finally showing something...
…no, I’m not crying over missing out on him.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
It's ironic that Carlos Peña is often cited as an example
of Beane making a mistake giving up on a player, when the reality is just the opposite. The A’s came out ahead on the trade where we gave up Peña. It was the trade to obtain Peña that was a bad one.
Peña was one of three players given to Detroit in a three-way trade. Although one of those three turned out well for Detroit (Jeremy Bonderman), Carlos Peña was a complete black hole for them, providing three years of negative WAR and then released. What the A’s got back in the trade (from the Yankees) was one great year of Ted Lilly plus prospect pieces that eventually turned into Erubiel Durazo and Jack Hannahan.
The real mistake was acquiring Peña in the first place. Strangely, it doesn’t get mentioned often, but it was one of Beane’s worst. We bought high on Peña, a highly touted top prospect at the time, supposedly major-league ready. To get him, we gave Texas a package of four promising younger prospects. Of the four, two fizzled (Jason Hart, Mario Ramos), but one (Ryan Ludwick) was a future star that Texas got decent trade value out of and the other (Gerald Laird) became a solid player who provided them moderate major-league value for several years. For those four, the A’s got Peña and a mediocre loogy (Mike Venafro), neither of whom were ever any good playing for the A’s. Salvaging some trade value while unloading Peña was the only thing Beane did right in that maneuver.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Not only that, but right before Peña started being any good
he was available to every team on the cheap. The A’s could have avoided all his bad years, and then gotten all his best years, anyway. And it had nothing to do with acquiring him or trading him.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
We missed in 2009...
We thought with Giambi, Holliday, Chavez/Nomar, Orlando Cabrera, TBuck would cure what ailed us!!!
Every man for himself...
Very scary, yet accurately stated
We are screwed. What can we actually expect to get in return for CoCo, Willingham, Bailey, Wuertz and DeJesus….all of whom I believe must be traded. My greatest fear, having to trade either Cahill, Gio or Anderson is coming alive. Anderson is a no go at the moment. You would have to assume BB would try to ship Gio due to his lack of contract and great season/all star selection.
Michael Taylor for M.V.P.!!!!!
I doubt Beane trades either Gio or Cahill unless he is completely overwhelmed. I would trade the entire bullpen except for Devine, who should become the closer if Bailey is traded.
I agree that dumping anyone out of the bullpen is the best idea. There is no need to have Bailey or any of those guys if we are not going to contend. Maybe we will get lucky and pull a wilson ramos type from someone desperate.
by Slide Giambi on Jul 10, 2011 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions
it seems maybe McCarthy might be on the block
why else would he already be named the starter for the first game back on friday when essentially ALL SP are available. maybe trying to showcase him for trade. otherwise i would think with his recent injury he would be given additional rest
by heartstopper on Jul 11, 2011 8:08 AM PDT up reply actions
post script......not that he will get much
but it seems he is going
by heartstopper on Jul 11, 2011 8:14 AM PDT up reply actions
I think you're reading into it.
I suspect that it’s due to matchups coming out of the break.
by LoneStranger on Jul 11, 2011 8:24 AM PDT up reply actions
but i thought we were poised to contend
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
by mikev on Jul 10, 2011 4:07 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
and we have plus defense!
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. —Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
by pam5981 on Jul 10, 2011 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
dude, that is so, like, March 30th of you!
"Lako je tuđim kurcem po koprivama mlatiti / It’s easy to beat on the nettles with someone else’s dick." - elcroata
by paris7 on Jul 10, 2011 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Did Beane really improve the offense?
Beane said he improved our offense when he signed Fuentes and Balfour, just not in a linear way!
If you buy that then we will contend…
Every man for himself...
The problem, as I see it, is the refusal to commit to rebuilding...
It’s like it’s rebuilding, but not really, because there’s always a sort of half hearted attempt to contend at the same time.
Instead of taking this team to surgery and truly fixing it, they just keep slapping band aids on the bleeding wounds.
Holliday, Giambi, Cabrera, Matsui, Garciaparra, etc. etc. The list goes on and on of guys who really probably should have never been here.
We can’t perform any worse, attendance can’t be any worse. They are truly better off just stinking for the time being while the put the chips in place to put a decent team together.
by AsFan72 on Jul 10, 2011 4:10 PM PDT reply actions 3 recs
This is it
This is what happens when you aren’t 100% committed to truly rebuilding. And the Matt Holliday trade was a perfect example of what not to do when you rebuild. Most of our FA acquisitions have also been ill advised. But apparently Beane thinks we need to spend money to keep MLB off our back… I say screw MLB. Do what is best for the team and tell them to leave us along unless they let us move to San Jose so we can finally compete on a level playing field.
we hit the lottery with Big Hurt and that mentality hurt us
I don’t mind us spending $ to sign of over the hill guy, hey got Gnats the WS. But the Holiday trade is a dagger right through our heart
by asfansince1989 on Jul 10, 2011 5:15 PM PDT up reply actions
I think you're right about that
The Big Hurt did well for us, in an unusual resurgence. Unfortunately, because the usual decline was discounted for him, it has been used as an example to make future judgments (e.g. Giambi), judgments that should not have been made toward favoring old players, IMO.
Since 1999, Beane has been looking for the next John Jaha under every rock. Gold once, iron pyrite a dozen times.
IMO, players like Holiday (and Beltre would have failed, too) have failed here because opposing pitchers have been able to handle the Athletics hitters, one batter at a time. That sounds dumb, but what I mean to say (in fewer words) is that, for some reason, the combination of Athletics hitters seem to be conducive to pitchers making a higher percentage of pitcher’s pitches that batters swing at, or strikes they don’t swing at. I have no explanation of why that is true, but it seems to be the way the ingredients in the lineup go together. You move Pennington from ninth to second, and suddenly, he starts hitting.
Why would that be??
I think pitchers’ approach, and batters’ approach (and the known approach, as catchers and pitchers strategize pre-game) is a factor that needs analysis.
2011: Go Athletics!
by One won lost won on Jul 11, 2011 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions
Holliday did not fail here. He had a 3 week slump to start the season and then had like a .900 OPS the rest of the way.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Well, three weeks is too long
because it is in a lineup that cannot compensate for a player counted on to make the rest of the lineup “work”. That is the problem.
I think I’ll look at the 1942 St Louis Cardinals (or was it 1943?) they had Musial and one other good hitter, but won it all. What made a team with two good hitters win it all???
2011: Go Athletics!
by One won lost won on Jul 11, 2011 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions
I dunno I wasn't alive in 1942.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Three weeks was maybe 20% of the games he played here
What, did people expect he’d just go right from Denver to Oakland, change leagues and dominate immediately? Yeah, his April was rough. Everything after that was solid. The problems the team had aren’t attributable to just him.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I BLAME MCKGUWIRE FOR CHANGING HIS SWING
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
During the WWII years, there were only a few truly good hitters left in the league.
MLB essentially became AAA-level and occasionally worse, until the first wave of discharges in 1945.
"I heard the reason Geren never played Powell was so he could have someone around to fetch him a cushion."- UrgentMirth
by Gaijin_Suketto on Jul 11, 2011 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions
During WWIII, Pete Gray will have no arms.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
You mean like Coco now?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
But he didn't smile
"If you wrote something for which someone sent you a check, if you cashed the check and it didn't bounce, and if you then paid the light bill with the money, I consider you talented." —Stephen King
that only takes away the "Holiday sucked" argument, but not the "Holiday trade sucked" argument
by asfansince1989 on Jul 11, 2011 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Rebuilding ain't what it used to be
You don’t get back Anthony Rizzo unless you deal someone like Adrian Gonzalez. And what we really need is an Anthony Rizzo. If you rebuild by dealing crappy MLB players, you’re probably just going to get more middling prospects instead of actually better ones. Other teams have figured out that top flight prospects are a better bet than trades in some cases.
So, I would advocate letting walk who we want to walk and amass the draft picks and try to plug holes that exist from the current farm crop and small trades. Except Wilingham; he’s the only hitter worth watching.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
agree
Except we should have picked up a decent piece for Holliday, but neither Brett Wallace or Michael Taylor have done us much good.
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
Cargo in Oakland would not be the Cargo of colorado
In Oakland I think he would look more like this
Career spilts road:.262/ .313/ .412
by Slide Giambi on Jul 10, 2011 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Still, bump that up just a tad
to, say, .262/.330/.440, with 22 HRs and very good OF defense, and he’s the A’s best OFer by a lot. To me, that’s the part that hurts. He’s a presence in the middle of your order and he plays good defense. Oakland doesn’t have that, at all, anywhere.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I think the problem might be that the A's "play the odds"
by getting 6 prospects for one good pitcher, spreading out the “risk/possibilities,” but instead needed to get 1-2 really good ones you were more likely to “hit on”.
Doing that has the same “bust risk” as a Chavez $66M extension can, but if you scout well you can win big because you’ll get a better prospect in a (before they made it to the big leagues) “Haren for Hosmer” or “Haren for Stanton” type of deal than you’ll get as part of a group of 6 prospects.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I think the Haren trade is bad example, because the A's got a bunch of good players
Which is better than 1-2 good ones or a bunch of middling ones. I still wonder how Anderson, Gonzalez, and Carter could all come over in the same trade and yet we still blow.
No question it was a great trade
I mean in general, the A’s might be better off to go for one “surer thing” position player over three “might be good” position players, when dealing a valuable trade chip.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I don't think Haren for Hosmer would happen today
Nor do I think Cahill for Alonso or any other big-time prospect would happen. Clubs seem to be overvaluing their prospects unless you’re giving them back a legit superstar. In many ways, I’d say this is overvaluing the prospect, but that’s the way it’s going.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 10, 2011 5:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Different situations.
When the D’Backs dealt for Haren, the NL West was pretty weak. The Royals wouldn’t want a guy like Haren because they’re still rebuilding. Maybe two years from now.
When we discussed Cahill to the Reds for Alonso/Grandal/whatever else, the Reds are just a few games back and have Votto blocking Alonso, and better catching prospects than Grandal.
I think you’re right that teams value their prospects much more than maybe four years ago, but I don’t think those examples are apples to apples.
To clarify, I didn't mean Hosmer in particular with the Royals where they are right now.
Just that type of prospect from the team in a position to trade youth for established talent.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
You're right that the Reds are probably ideal trading partners
I just think that they want a David Price level guy to part with Alonso. I like Cahill, but he’s not Price.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 10, 2011 6:00 PM PDT up reply actions
I think you undderrate Cahill (and that's coming from someone who doesn't care for him all that much)
He’s not the best, but he’s an above average 21 year old MLB starter without an injury history, signed for below market value for like six years. That’s value, especially to a team that, despite their poor pitching, is still in a position to compete.
(23)
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Fair
It’s hard to determine who’s in the driver’s seat in this trade. I want to say the A’s, since the Reds are probably a starter or two from being a real juggernaut, but they have the hitter we want, too.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 10, 2011 6:11 PM PDT up reply actions
The A's, most likely.
I mean, it’s the A’s. They’ll probably take ANY hitter at this point. Oakland could simply say, “Alright, we’ll take our 23 year old above average blah blah blah to another team and get somebody else.” I mean, I would never go to the Reds and say, “Hey we want to trade Cahill,” but I’m sure the Reds have contacted a lot of teams, including Oakland, to see about their asking prices.
if we say "we'll take anyone for Cahill"
that kinda sounds desperate and puts us in an disadvantage already
by asfansince1989 on Jul 11, 2011 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions
The thing about the Reds is that
if they decide to be buyers this year they want a starter who is useful right now AND whom they can afford to keep for several more years. They don’t really want a rent-a-player, which is what most of the other selling teams have to offer.
Also, remember that if the Reds to go for it, they’re probably in the market for a shortstop, too, where they have to compete with half a dozen other teams for whatever second-best SS has his asking price driven up by the Jose Reyes sweepstakes. The Reds have a strong farm, but two big trades will be a big hit to it. Given that they’re a borderline contender this year to begin with, they can’t justify mortgaging the future for a single shot. If they cash in part of their farm, they need to do it for relatively young and cost-controlled players who can also help them this year. Like Cahill.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I'd imagine the time is now for Alonso.
The Reds are in contention and I’d imagine they’d rather deal him before Pujols and Fielder hit the market.
"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me
http://marcel-oehler.marcellosendos.ch/comics/ch/1986/05/19860506.gif
"I Hate SF" - The Chosen One.
Part of rebuilding is getting top draft picks
LIke top 5 guys… you can’t do that without completely tanking, which the A’s never did (until now).
At this point, i want to see us lose more than win so they have no choice but to really rebuild with top picks. I say sell everyone you can and start over from the beginning.
well until the stadium situation gets resolved, what do we do if the A's pass on the top blue chip
prospects because of the expensive signing bonuses ala Pitts Pirates?
Every man for himself...
I think we have had no problem paying for draft picks or internationally. The problem is we haven’t really sucked enough.
by Slide Giambi on Jul 10, 2011 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions
You're blaming draft position??
Many, many top 5 picks have Failed miserably over the years, so don’t hand me that “we don’t have high picks” argument. KC & Pittsburgh can attest to that.. There have been lots of stars drafted in our midround draft positions. So the A’s not drafting high is no excuse.
by sf drift king on Jul 10, 2011 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Every little bit helps
The A’s are constrained by their ballpark and budget so failure is the most likely outcome of any strategy they employ. If they get higher picks they have better odds but they could still amount to nothing.
I’m not asking for success, merely the best effort to achieve it.
KC???
there #1 picks from ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 are all on there current ML roster… or rather were the last time we played them. not sure of current status
by heartstopper on Jul 11, 2011 8:16 AM PDT up reply actions
They still are.
Their first-round picks from 2003 to 2009 are Mitch Maier, Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, Luke Hochevar, Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, and Aaron Crow. As of today, all seven are on the Royals’ active roster.
Their first-round picks from 2002 and 1999 are also playing, Zach Greinke with the Brewers and Mike Macdougal with the Dodgers.
(Note that in 2003, 2004, and 1999 the Royals had two first-round picks thanks to compensation picks. In each year, only one of the two is now playing in the majors.)
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
by iglew on Jul 11, 2011 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Your research has been really invaluable lately.
Thank you. It is appreciated. i know it takes time.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 11, 2011 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions
Not as bad as Nelson Cruz for...
Keith Ginter.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
Though Ginter sucked
Let’s remember that Nelson Cruz was also traded by the Brewers to the Rangers, AND that the Rangers put him through waivers, later signing him to a minor league contract. Again, not really the A’s fault.
by asyouwish33 on Jul 10, 2011 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions
But on the plus side,
we also traded Greg Smith for Shane Peterson and Ethan Hollingsworth!
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I personally would like to see Peterson get a shot towards the end of this season.
He was posting a 112 wRC+ in AAA before Barton was sent down, knocking him back to Midland. He’s been an above average hitter everywhere he’s been. I’m not sure whether he can handle CF or not, but he’s only 23 and I’d like to see him get a chance.
Either at 1B because Carter becomes the fulltime DH, or in the OF because Crisp, DeJesus, and Willingham are all traded.
I had no idea Peterson could (maybe) play CF.
I only really noticed him in Sacramento, and the way he was tossed around various positions but mostly 1B, I assumed he was another one of those all-bat no-glove guys who ultimately ends up with no position at all.
If he can play CF that would be fantastic. Even if he’s a plus defender in LF or RF that would be great.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I mean, TotalZone has him below average in CF, above average in LF.
TZ isn’t that reliable, but it’s pretty much the only MiLB defensive measurement to go by. He’s a really good baserunner, so he’s not completely bereft of speed. By all accounts, he’s a very slick fielder at 1B, though.
Looks like 48 games in CF in his career.
The mere fact that he’s been tried there at all is a great sign. Hmm.
I like Peterson
but, he needs more time in AA or AAA. Plus, who do you take out? Matsui? I kid.
by asyouwish33 on Jul 11, 2011 12:02 AM PDT up reply actions
But i think it's fair to point out that the only reason we got Adrian Gonzalez...
…Is that we were willing to trade Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka to get him. At the time, Eaton was thought to be one of our core players. Otsuka was a fine reliever. All Adrian did was carry about 25% of the Padre offense.
You have to start somewhere. That somewhere should be the position players. Cahill is a fine pitcher. As a groundballer, he is naturally more dependent on luck and fielding. I don’t expect him to be an Ace. My feeling is the good ones have high floors but limited ceilings. In any case, the A’s are in such disarray, a pitcher who plays every 5th game can’t be as valuable as a position player with power. The A’s should do everything they can to land Alonso.
I’d probably try to land Alonso then sign Willingham to a 4 year deal with an option. Trade Bailey, Balfour and Fuentes for the best available prospects. Then I’d make a run at an OF like Ludwick. Between Alonso, Willingham, and Ludwick, you have the makings of a decent core. If Taylor or Carter can contribute, well, that’s all for the better. Willingham will be traded when Choice is ready.
"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me
http://marcel-oehler.marcellosendos.ch/comics/ch/1986/05/19860506.gif
"I Hate SF" - The Chosen One.
This is reasonable.
One can always hope that the health of Ross or McCarthy, the return of Anderson (2013), and the development of a current minor leaguer or even De Los Santos, might keep your rotation strong.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
You'll need to fill out an application.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
In triplicate
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
..ack!..need..more - TUMS!
My soul lives off this team, and i guess it’s going to be on life support for a better part of this new decade.
Had we not made the trade for Holliday, would we have been better off? CarGon coming around and all. We got Brett Wallace in return (swing and a miss) – so had we not “gone for it” we might be further along?
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
This is something I've been thinking about a lot.
Had we not made the trade for Holliday, would we have been better off?
Relative to what we are now, sure we’d be better off.
But as good as the Haren trade looked at the time, three of the six dudes we received are pretty much done. Carter will probably never be worth more than 1-2 WAR as a bad-fielding 1B/DH (and so far he’s producing negative WAR at jaw-dropping rate), and Anderson’s worth is limited to a couple wins because of his injuries (and the fact that his velocity was down at last sighting is, well, ominous).
This leaves CarGo, probably a six WAR player at his peak, much like Haren is now. So even if the A’s had kept CarGo they wouldn’t be much better off than they were when Haren left.
Basically I think a successful rebuild is a lot more difficult than Beane made it sound when he was talking about creating a new A’s “dynasty.” Generally when you trade a star player close to FA you’re looking for a chance to replace the value you lost, like the A’s did in the Mulder trade, with the added bonus for the low-budget team that you’re getting cost control and more surplus value in the long run. To suppose you can trade two guys worth about ten wins (Haren and Swisher) and eventually double the WAR you gave up (pretty much what the A’s needed to do to turn themselves into a mid-90s win contender) is asking an awful lot. And granted, the A’s made other trades – notably Harden and Blanton – but a scenario in which the rebuild was successful might have involved keeping CarGo (5 WAR), having Gallagher (4 WAR) and DLS (5 WAR) reach something close to what was once considered their upside, having Anderson not be injured a bunch (4 WAR), and maybe having one or two of the other young position players (Carter/Cardenas/Donaldson/Cunningham) turn into three WAR players. This is expecting a lot.
So no, as mind-bogglingly stupid as was the Holliday trade, I don’t thing the A’s would have been meaningfully better without it.
Bottom line: trading a star for a package that will replace the talent you lost is quite feasible; getting a package that will substantially improve upon the talent you gave up, lets say by 50% or better, is much more difficult. And yet, despite this, considering the A’s have something like nine MLB capable starting pitchers I’d probably go ahead and deal Cahill/Gio in the offseason, simply because the A’s already have oodles of internal candidates to help compensate for the value they’d loose.
by Aufheben on Jul 10, 2011 8:32 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
"pretty much done"
Greg Smith and Dana Eveland may be done, but they each provided us a decent year of value before they finished. That still counts for something.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
It counts for a lot. They provided about $18M of value for the league minimum that year.
That part of the Haren trade is overshadowed by Anderson, Carter and Gonzalez, but it helped the A’s a lot that year.
Dan Haren provided $25 million of SURPLUS value for the diamondbacks in 2008,
but it was still the closest the A’s ever came to replicating the value they lost with Haren, although it took four players to do it (not exactly effective in terms of opportunity cost):
2008:
A’s’ WAR: 5.3 (Eveland 2.6; Smith 1.5; Gonzalez 1; Cunningham 0.2)
Haren’s WAR: 6.5
2009:
A’s’ WAR: 3.4 (Anderson 3.7; Eveland 0.2; Cunningham -0.5)
Haren’s WAR: 6.1
Total WAR received from trade: 5.6 (Gonzalez 2.2)
2010:
A’s WAR: 1.8 (Anderson 2.6; Carter -0.8)
Haren’s WAR: 4.5
Total WAR received: 9 (Gonzalez 6.6; Cunningham 0.6; Eveland 0.1; Smith -0.1)
2011 as of 7/4 (which was when I exported the data):
A’s: 0.6 (Anderson 1; Carter -0.4)
Haren: 3.4
Total WAR from trade: 3.2 (Gonzalez 2.6; Cunningham 0)
Total WAR received from trade: 23.2
Total WAR Haren has accumulated since start of 2008: 20.5
Total WAR from players received that was contributed in an A’s uniform: 13.4
So the players we got for Haren only collectively outperformed him in 2010. This was a down year for Haren of course, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a career year for CarGO, although then again, he’s only 25. In 2011 Haren’s back on track to come out ahead. And you have to consider the opportunity cost of a roster spot. If it takes five guys to outproduce Haren’s WAR you’re probably still better off with Haren.
Obviously the players we received for Haren needed time to mature – Carter is still developing – and its foolish to think you can make a comparison like this in a vacuum: you also have to consider age, contract status, the players’ FA status (although Haren has now signed two incredibly team-friendly long-term deals). Going forward, I still think the deal will win out. Gonzalez will be good enough on his own so that the net WAR of the guys dealt for Haren will be close to 50% higher than Danny’s going forward, or at least starting in 2012.
BUT THIS TEAM WAS SUPPOSED TO REBUILD! THEY WERE SUPPOSED TO ULTIMATELY ADD VALUE TO WHAT THEY HAD IN HAREN! AND THAT’S IMPOSSIBLE NOW!
That’s why I think these numbers are interesting to look at.
by Aufheben on Jul 11, 2011 12:35 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
On a side note, Carter's -1.2 WAR in roughly 110 PA's is insane!
It took Barton thrice as long to suck a quarter as much! I’m really starting to buy PaulThomas’ argument that you just don’t play Carter unless you want to ruin your team, although given the draft implications maybe its not such a bad idea.
of course you would need to weight the WARs for
partial seasons for a true comparison
by heartstopper on Jul 11, 2011 8:22 AM PDT up reply actions
Let's hope Beane will trade for Bryce Harper and sign Barry Bonds!!!! :)
just trying to smile during this rough era.
Every man for himself...
Nico, you're too cheery
It’s probably worse than you say.
— The major league team is dreadfully dull. I am amazed that I wasted a couple of hours watching the A’s today. I was much better off missing yesterday’s game. Even dedicated fans aren’t really much interested, and the team has basically slipped completely off the radar.
— Major league baseball hates the A’s, just hates them. The owners want to collect their revenue-sharing checks and trash the Coliseum. And then fans are criticized for not wanting to spend money to watch their cellar-dwelling, offense-impaired, defense-impaired gang of strangers when the owners are busy trying – without any success – to move out of town.
— Chris Carter will never be a good major league hitter. He will hit some home runs, I suppose, but I just don’t see anything in his track record to suggest that he would be good enough to be a designated hitter.
— The minor league system, as noted, is quite weak. There just isn’t much there, except for “old” prospects and guys who can hit for average but little else.
All of this has me seriously contemplating things I would never have considered. The first is trading Gio. He’s valuable, is having a good season, has no injury history, and should bring a good haul. This is probably an offseason move. Trading Gio will make the A’s more terrible, of course, and it would be preferable to trade Anderson – but his injury history makes him much less valuable.
What MIGHT save the A's, in the next few years,
is good scouting overseas. Yordy Cabrera, Vicmal de la Cruz, even still Ynoa, might have the kind of upside the A’s so desperately need. If they were to come up and succeed, around when Choice did, you could conceivably have a real core similar to the one Oakland rode in the early 2000s. A lot has to break right, though.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
there were rumors we were interested in that kid Texas just signed, before the price got too high
I’m hoping the A’s are hitting the international hard again.
Sure doesn't seem like it...
Texas is killing it in the International Market, though. I was expecting a lot more youth to be signed in DR, Venezuela, etc.
by Colorado Fan on Jul 10, 2011 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions
he's making some great plays at 2b
which unfortunately might be evidence that it’s his best position.
It's a little disingenuous to badmouth the attempts at contending
Has there been a team that gets as unlucky with acquired players as the A’s? Look at the list of guys who underperformed, or immediately regressed upon arrival, here: Holliday, Giambi, Matsui, Willingham, DeJesus, Nomar, Piazza. These aren’t all the same type of player, yet they all played worse here. Something in the water? I don’t know.
Besides the fact that since the steroid era effectively ended, hitting has been trending down all over MLB. There just aren’t as many good hitters in the world as there were 4-5 years ago.
So in the land of the hitless, is he with the best pitching king? Apparently not, but let’s not discount our great pitching so much. The A’s can still find pitching seemingly at will, so how far from contention does that put us, really? It’s not imminent, but I doubt it’s so far as to endlessly scream WE’RE ALL GONNA DIEEEEEEEE
And I’m really tired of hearing about our ancient, horribly old AAA players. They are also players who haven’t had much of a chance to compete at the major league level. How about we bring as many of them up as possible before we discount them forevermore? Everybody bitches about “SMALL SAMPLE SIZE, ARRRRGGGHHH!!!!” Well zero is a pretty small sample size, isn’t it? Just let them come up and hack away for a while. I guarantee at least one or two of them will prove people wrong and be a decent major league player. Because after all, THEY CAN’T BE MUCH WORSE THAN OUR CURRENT PLAYERS, CAN THEY? (Rhetorical question, the answer is hell no).
And the aforementioned Scott Sizemore is 26-years-old and was languishing at AAA. Detroit didn’t give him an extended look at the majors, and look what happened? Seems a bit hypocritical to discount our 25-26 year old minor leaguers, but then espouse the virtues of Sizemoar.
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
by darooster on Jul 10, 2011 4:31 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
The problem is...
They were never full fledged attempts at contending, they were these weird hybrid “well, we’re rebuilding, but we’ve also signed a couple of veterans for the cheap that no one else wanted”.
I think what is disingenuous is calling those genuine attempts to contend. I’ll admit, this year I absolutely fell for it, I thought this team would be much better than they are, and I was certain Texas wouldn’t be the same team they were last year (which they have regressed a bit).
I know people crap on anyone who questions a players passion, but screw it, odds are the bulk of the veterans we’ve acquired to “contend” never seemed like they had the slightest desire to be here. They were either traded here against there will, or signed here when no one else was calling.
The desirable, loose clubhouse of the early 2000’s is long since gone, this simply isn’t a place anyone wants to be. That more than anything else is the greatest problem. If you cannot attract good players, you’re screwed. Right now, Oakland cannot even attract mediocre players. Marquee players laugh and go win a division elsewhere.
Until the image of this club changes, it’s fortunes will remain the same.
But we all knew that this was to be the image of the A's?
When you have someone like Beane that trades away the most popular players on a team you knew that the loyalty to the player is not there with beane. What do you expect FA players to think of that?
It isn't bad luck when it happens every time
We need to get the clue that signing free agent hitters isn’t the answer here. Use FA money on pitchers and develop the hitting internally through the draft and prospect trades. I don’t know why it has to be this way, but clearly it does.
It has to be this way because Oakland is where good hitters come to die
It sucks, but why should we believe otherwise?
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
I'd actually say the opposite
We suck at developing hitters, so use the FA money to go after legit hitters. Continue to develop pitching the way we’ve always done.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 10, 2011 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions
this
yeah, we might be the worst (or at least one of the worst) organizations in baseball in developing good hitters. we had grieve, giambi, chavez, miggy….and…and…oh wait, nobody. swisher wasn’t bad. but, seriously, have any of the guys from our system done anything for our team? (ethier is one of the only players that was in our system for a while who has succeeded elsewhere…cargo wasn’t really developed by us at all)
by guy incognito on Jul 10, 2011 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions
What free agents have worked?
We developed our previous offensive core. And we developed our current leadoff guy.
we can't win there, either
we have to shop at the clearance rack, and anytime we try to get a good hitter (beltre comes to mind), we lose out. it’s a mess.
by guy incognito on Jul 10, 2011 9:03 PM PDT up reply actions
A bunch of responses
— A couple of days ago, I advocated getting rid of the veterans who are blocking the old AAA players so the team can see what they can do. I think that’s pretty much a consensus position here. We may have some Sizemores in our own organization, although Sizemore himself appears to have some limitations (has no position on the team is one of them). Let’s see them. So I agree with you on that.
— I disagree only about your irritation. The most exciting prospects are younger than 26. They are racing through minor league systems at a young age. While the A’s may hit the lottery with a few of these “oldsters,” it’s unwise to bet on that.
— I’m not trying to discount great pitching. But what has it gotten the A’s? They’re one of the worst teams in baseball.
— Some of the attempts at contention were badmouthed at the time the acquistions were made. This isn’t a bunch of after-the-fact whining. The Holliday trade never made any sense, even if you concede that CarGon wouldn’t have been the same player in Oakland (or anywhere outside of Colorado). The Matsui acquisition was trashed from the get-go, and the critics have been right. Nomar? Piazza? Giambi? Those are two in a long string of vet acquistions that never worked out, except for the one time it did (Frank Thomas, the first time). Willingham was and is a legitimate hitter in his prime, and he’s been fine.
On your first point, I don't think it is exactly a consensus position
Because so many people just say, “well the minors are just full of crap anyway, what’s the difference, wah wah wah” They even badmouth the younger than 26 guys like Choice and Green. Look around, everyone is always whining about how “decimated” the minors are.
I agree with you, the older than 24 guys are not exactly exciting, I just want to see them before they are dismissed forever.
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
older than 24???
many players don’t get out of college until 23. that only leaves one year of development before the ML
by heartstopper on Jul 11, 2011 8:28 AM PDT up reply actions
Guys can be drafted from college after 3 years
And many of them are.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 11, 2011 8:36 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes, plenty
Has there been a team that gets as unlucky with acquired players as the A’s?
The Mariners for the past few years. The Pirates for most of the past decade. The Orioles for as long as I can remember. The Twins right now.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I don't know about the Pirates
But the Orioles and Mariners are good ones. The Mariners have the worst damn luck when it comes to acquired players.
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
For the Pirates I was thinking of draft picks.
Years and years of top picks and they kept turning out crap.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
True
When I said acquired players, I meant through trades or free agency. But your comment reminded me of the rotten luck the Mariners have in that regard. They may have more of a right to complain than us
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
i would love to have some of that McCutcheon crap
.291, 14hr, 15sb
by heartstopper on Jul 11, 2011 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Hence "most of the past decade"
ie, not all of it.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
For the Pirates,
I wish we could separate out their “below-slot” top picks. I hate when teams have a top-5 pick and refuse to pay for a top-5 talent. I think the Pirates did that at least a few times in the last 15 years.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 11, 2011 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions
sad because true
Our prospects have either underperformed or become priests.
Our Priest obviously is not praying very hard for our offense right now.
by Slide Giambi on Jul 10, 2011 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Something's very wrong
Beane has gone through a mess of hitting coaches and fired them all. Twice, in 2009 and this year, he packed the team with what he thought would be sufficient offense, and failed miserably both times.
In 2009, by making the Holiday trade at a time when there was basically no pitching staff, he threw away his greatest trade chip (Huston Street) and the future star that would’ve made 2011 a very different year. In 2011, by keeping Crisp and Jackson, and picking up Willingham, DeJesus and Matsui (I’ll give him a pass on Ellis because Weeks didn’t seem to be ready, and Ellis was extraordinary last September), he ensured that the prospects in Sacramento would remain in Sacramento. It’s likely they’re all middling or worse, but you can’t know until you try, and if you do try, maybe you’ll get lucky (as the A’s apparently have with Sizemore).
There’s failure on so many levels: in drafting, in analyzing future production, in over-paying for players like Brian Fuentes, in trading away players like Carlos Gonzalez and Andre Ethier and keeping, for example, Travis Buck, in working with the roster on a day-to-day basis, in analyzing the role of managers and coaches for the major league team.
Insofar as the team’s crappy defense goes - any team that puts together a “no-doubles” defense and gets racked deserves to have a coach fired (unless it was Geren’s idea, in which case - too late).
My guess is that Billy Beane won’t be GM after this year. I would love for someone to sit down with him and see if he’ll talk honestly about the mistakes instead of blaming everything on fate or money. There’s no question that money plays a role in the creation of a roster, but this goes way beyond money.
The "devil's advocate" is that the A's tried harder than many know
to sign Beltre, and were serious in their pursuit of Berkman. Now, put this lineup behind our pitching and it’s a different year:
Weeks – 2B
Crisp – CF
Willingham – LF
Beltre – 3B
Berkman – DH
DeJesus – RF
Barton – 1B
Suzuki – C
Pennington – SS
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
The problem is getting free agents to sign with Oakland
Mila "Sweet Lips" Kunis, as stated by Scarlett Johansson. I couldn't agree more. Reverse would be true too!!!!
by nocal81(Vincent) on Jul 10, 2011 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Or going after the wrong ones
Berkman very clearly wanted to be a position player, and preferred to remain in the NL. He said he would only consider DH if he got no starting position player offer.
by OaklandSi on Jul 10, 2011 4:47 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I have always been in the camp that when it comes to free agents, “what is Billy supposed to do?” He wants certain players, but there is no doubt that most free agents don’t want to play here. I think that if Willigham would sign here, we should sign him.
by Slide Giambi on Jul 10, 2011 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions
If not Billy, then whom?
Not too long ago, this was a club that actually attracted free agents (or at the very least guys who didn’t feel like they had died when they got traded).
There’s some far greater issue that none of know that is making Oakland currently among the least desirable places to play. Could have been the manager, could be the park, could be the string of failure, it’s hard to say, but Billy has got to change the image of this club in anyway he can. At the beginning of the 2000’s this placed was beloved as the “Animal House” of baseball. A bunch of brash young players who were either too dumb or too naive to know they should be afraid of the Mighty Yankees.
Maybe Geren was the problem, and next year it’ll be easier if they are able to retain Melvin’s services. Maybe Billy himself is the problem, and agents are just tired of dealing with him.
Something has to got to change. You just simply can’t compete in the current environment. As it is you either get guys with nothing left via free agency, or guys traded against their will (I’ve yet to hear of a no-trade clause being waived to come to Oakland, and they seem to appear on everyones no trade list) who then ultimately underperform.
Change is necessary, and that’s absolutely on Billy.
I think that free agents fall into a couple of categories.
1) Middle age free agents who need a big year to get another contract
Those guys won’t come here because of the park.
2)All star players who demand the most money.
Those guys are not coming here for obvious reasons
by Slide Giambi on Jul 10, 2011 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions
This club attracted people because of their clubhouse...
That Beane for a while imploaded year after year at a slow rate. Once that clubhouse was gone no one wanted to play for a GM that was almighty like beane.
Jermaine Dye?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 10, 2011 7:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Dye never signed with us as a FA
He came in trade.
I’d have to say that the biggest free agent signing by the Athletics during the Schott/Hofmann era was Rickey Henderson in 1998.
Tripp’s point is well taken, though. There were extremely few FA signings during those years. If you count re-signing a player who was already with the team and became a free agent, there’s Tony Philips. Not much else.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Oops. I stand corrected about Dye.
Thanks for setting me straight.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
i don't think it is a question of being "able to retain"
it whether they want to retain… and i hope they do
by heartstopper on Jul 11, 2011 8:33 AM PDT up reply actions
In situations like that
I think the A’s should offer some ridiculous sum of money that no sane team would match. Sure, it would be overpaying. But I would rather overpay for Willingham (who is at least worth watching, even if he’s not a good fielder) than waste mid-range money on Fuentes.
if it won't make us a contender
i say trade everybody that can hit a wiffle ball on our team (not many, i think), bring up the garbage in AAA, and make sure we get a top 3 draft pick. our great young pitchers are used to getting 0-3 runs a game…with guys like recker, taylor, mitchell, etc., it’ll go down to, what, 0-2? those pitchers are screwed, anyway. the only thing that will help is a big infusion of young, talented hitting, and a complete overhaul of our coaches in the minors. i mean, seriously, we produce basically no hitters in our system.
by guy incognito on Jul 10, 2011 6:29 PM PDT up reply actions
but then we'll suck anyways if we can't afford decent players
We are not in a position to “overpay” for players, at least not much.
by Billy Frijoles on Jul 11, 2011 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions
If Berkman wanted to play the outfield
You let Berkman play the outfield. The fact that the A’s wanted him to DH was apparently a contributing factor in his decision to stay in the National League. And of course, now we know that Geren himself was a fetid wind that kept free agents away from Oakland.
Sorry, there’s no way Geren should have been retained given his reputation around the league. And if you want a free agent to come to Oakland, you don’t tell him he won’t play the field. (I mean, Berkman would have been a regular outfielder, we know now, but jeez, you don’t go out of your way to turn off your potential employee like that).
re: Berkman
Normally, I’m not with you on a lot of things, but I’m inclined to agree here. Neither DeJesus nor Jackson are so awesome on defense that they make up for their offensive shortcomings. Yeah, a Willingham-Crisp-Berkman OF would be pretty bad by UZR, but way better than what we currently have.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 10, 2011 5:49 PM PDT up reply actions
You don't be honest and forthright about your intensions?
It’s easy for us to want him to play in the field now that we see what he’s doing in St. Louis, but he was coming off a terrible showing in New York. Many thought he was on his last legs.
by asyouwish33 on Jul 10, 2011 11:00 PM PDT up reply actions
No, you play him in the field
What? He would have been worse than Willingham?
I Disagree with the bleak outlook, well to some extent.
The A’s do have some nice young position players that could be ready within the next year or two. Right now, Weeks and Sizemore is it; but, look for some others to get the call in the not so distant future.
Michael Taylor, Anthony Recker, Jermaine Mitchell and Adrian Cardenas come to mind first. Then you have the possibility of Michael Choice around this time next year.
I am not a huge fan of trading players just to trade them, but sometimes its better than holding on vets and attempting to keep your head above water. Additionally, when you have a type A free agent like Willingham, sometimes it makes sense to get the draft picks instead.
But, relief pitching is at a premium right now and the A’s have plenty of that. They should be able to net solid, major league ready talent for the likes of Grant Balfour and Andrew Bailey. Additionally, you are looking at getting more than marginal prospects in return for Brad Zeigler and Michael Wuertz.
It might be time to blow up this team, but DON’T trade Cahill or Gonzalez.
Mila "Sweet Lips" Kunis, as stated by Scarlett Johansson. I couldn't agree more. Reverse would be true too!!!!
by nocal81(Vincent) on Jul 10, 2011 4:38 PM PDT reply actions
It doesn't matter how many prospects the A's have in the minors
They never seem to want to bring them up. Look at what it took just to get Weeks up here.
by TBRMKane on Jul 10, 2011 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
That is my point
The A’s need to get rid of the veterans, get something for the valuable relievers and blow the team up. I wouldn’t mind Carter, Taylor, Recker, Mitchell and Cardenas playing every day in Oakland from here on out this year
Mila "Sweet Lips" Kunis, as stated by Scarlett Johansson. I couldn't agree more. Reverse would be true too!!!!
by nocal81(Vincent) on Jul 10, 2011 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
To go a long with Sizmore and Weeks.
Mila "Sweet Lips" Kunis, as stated by Scarlett Johansson. I couldn't agree more. Reverse would be true too!!!!
by nocal81(Vincent) on Jul 10, 2011 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions
is it a financial reason
they don’t want to start the clock on the prospects and start loosing “free money”?
by asfansince1989 on Jul 10, 2011 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions
so this is on Beane or Wolfe?
We can’t trade Wolfe can we?
by asfansince1989 on Jul 10, 2011 5:34 PM PDT up reply actions
I mean who should take the blame for not bringing up young guys for financial reasons?
by asfansince1989 on Jul 11, 2011 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions
In some cases, it's "who should take the credit"?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
In Weeks' case a lot of it was injuries and limited playing time in the minors
The guy has played all of 221 games in the minor leagues, in 2 full seasons and 2 partial seasons as a pro. That’s the main reason his promotion was delayed.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
May I just say, HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This year, I got you…a pathetic team!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Whoo Hooo!
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
(send it back)
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 11, 2011 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions
yeah, it took a lot for Weeks to get up here...less than half of this season in AAA without an injury
That’s not really a long time to wait.
Yes he had played well in the past but without staying healthy it’s hard to call someone up.
by Billy Frijoles on Jul 11, 2011 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Listen up!
if these mofos think they can trade Cahill and/or Gonzales for another 4-5 yrs of rebuilding, then they can kiss my @ss. I will withhold my season ticket money and I won’t go to anymore games because I’m tired of bad management setting this team back.
Billy Beane is doing a god awful job at managing a small mkt team. Outside of pitching, what has his drafts produced? Certainly no stars that we can show off or rely upon on the current roster. This is unacceptable for a team that heavily relys on the amatuer draft to stay competitive.
One last thing Billy, before you think of dumping Jamarcus Carter like you did Cargo, why don’t you get the kid a g’damn mentor for next season. Frank Thomas comes to mind. CC could learn a lot from the Big Hurt or someone like him. He currently has no one on the team that can take him under his wing to smooth his transition to the big leagues.
by sf drift king on Jul 10, 2011 4:46 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Wasn't the big knock on Thomas
back with the White Sox is that he refused to mentor younger players?
Maybe age and wisdom and unemployment have turned it around. They should offer him a job in the minors as a hitting coach and see how he does.
by coffee roaster on Jul 10, 2011 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions
That would be different
than now. He didn’t want to mentor players the way Ellis did to Jamile because he didn’t see it as his job to. He would be in a diff role now. The A’s can hire him the same way they did Rickey Henderson: come to ST work with CC, and be a special assistant or something to Bob2. Who knows… I’m just pressing for ideas. The one thing that we do know is this team lacks veteran leadership. The one guy we had, Ellis, was traded. And he wasn’t a vocal leader. I think the younger guys, especially Carter, could benefit from having quality veteran players around him.
by sf drift king on Jul 10, 2011 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions
the big hurt was as smart a hitter as there was
no doubt he’d be a great hitting coach…but he can’t perform miracles. most of our hitters are just awful or refuse to tinker with their batting stances (swingles). do you think thomas could get sweeney to stop inside-outing everything if he threatened to hit him with the rebar?
by guy incognito on Jul 10, 2011 6:20 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I never was a big fan of the Big Hurt. Great hitter, but a selfish person.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
I feel just the opposite.
I like him personally, and that’s why he’s one of my favorite players ever.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
It was a personal thing to me.
He refused to use union workers build his mansion in the chicago area, claiming that the cost was too high. This was right after he asked the local unions to support the player’s union during the strike. Being a union carpenter, it just rubbed me raw.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
by Tutu-late on Jul 11, 2011 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Literal answer to your question:
Outside of pitching, what has [Beane’s] drafts produced?
Non-pitchers from Beane drafts who made the big leagues:
1998: Gerald Laird, Jason Hart, Eric Byrnes, Mike Cervenak
1999: Ryan Ludwick
2000: Freddie Bynum, Marshall McDougall
2001: Bobby Crosby, Marcus McBeth, Dan Johnson
2002: Nick Swisher, Jeremy Brown, Mark Teahen, John Baker
2003: Omar Quintanilla, Andre Ethier, Brian Horwitz
2004: Landon Powell, Danny Putnam, Kurt Suzuki, Kevin Melillo, Tommy Everidge
2005: Cliff Pennington, Travis Buck, Jeff Baisley
2006: none
2007: none
2008: Jemile Weeks
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
These are the only players still playing eh? only about 4-5 of them should really be playing though. I wonder how this compares to other GMs 14+ year record.
Nick Swisher
Andre Ethier
Landon Powell
Kurt Suzuki
Cliff Pennington
Travis Buck
Jemile Weeks
If you count both hitters and pitchers,
the A’s are just a touch above average in terms of drafted players currently in the big leagues. If you count hitters only, they’re below.
I’ve done some research on this, which hopefully will find its way into a FanPost some day.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Well
technically, the Scottish player made the majors as a pitcher, right?
"If you wrote something for which someone sent you a check, if you cashed the check and it didn't bounce, and if you then paid the light bill with the money, I consider you talented." —Stephen King
Good point
He was drafted as an outfielder but was converted to pitcher in the minors.
That’s how bad the A’s are at producing hitters!
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
But pretty damn awesome at producing Shakespearean characters
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
There is no A in McBeth!
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Oops, sorry.
I meant to say “the Scottish ply”.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
flgged for biting.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Thanks
I couldn’t remember if he had a cup of coffee as an OF or if he was converted in the minors.
"If you wrote something for which someone sent you a check, if you cashed the check and it didn't bounce, and if you then paid the light bill with the money, I consider you talented." —Stephen King
Dan Johnson.
"As the tag line of my favorite dirty joke would have it: 'Keep your hat on. We could wind up miles from here.'" ~Kurt Vonnegut, Hocus Pocus
The ownership just does not care anymore
When Wolff and Fisher bought this team it was because they saw the potential to build a stadium with commercial and residential development around it and make a killing. They are not baseball men—they are real estate developers. So then the economy tanked and Fremont was no more a viable plan. San Jose will not happen until MLB decides—and I don’t see them saying yes to the move. And bridges have been burnt with Oakland. So, all interest in the team has been lost because it no longer serves their purpose.
They need to sell the team to a group who loves baseball first and foremost. It is easy to see how the Rangers have been revived by a true baseball man in Nolan Ryan.
A disinterested group will not work to revive or rebuild a team. They will collect their revenue sharing, take home a fat paycheck, and hope that the economy will turn around so they can either sell the team at a nice profit or find a city where a development project will work.
Lew Wolff has not set foot in the Coliseum in months—Nolan Ryan is there every night. And do you need to ask which team is in first place?
So sad.
by oaklandcrazy on Jul 10, 2011 4:50 PM PDT reply actions 5 recs
not that where an owner sits decides the fate
but they did go after Beltre and Berkman. Is wolff there to make money? Yes. Do i think his position has been detrimental to the team and the fanbase? Yes. Do i think he is sabotaging the team? No.
I just want an owner to quit forcasting doom and make a move.
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
The attempt to go after Beltre and Berkman was a mirage.
Billy is trying to do a Jedi mind trick to make you believe he is trying to sign them when in fact he knew the offered he made would never be accepted. The bottom line is Lew Wolff is a cheap ass owner.
I agree but at the time of the FA signing period, I wasn't too thrilled with the idea of signing Berkman.
I was wrong about that move and we missed on Beltre!
Every man for himself...
You are incorrect.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
we made reasonable efforts
We were number 2 for Beltre (and I think Texas overpaid by quite a bit… they would be winning with or without him).
We were the highest bidder on Berkman but he knew he could rebuild his value better in St. Louis (a la Beltre and the Red Sox). This is the real issue. Players know its better to take less money elsewhere.
We were also #2 on Chapman, allegedly.
I totally believe that they are making legitimate bids on people.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 11, 2011 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions
On the contrary...
I believe the A’s are targeting good value, but unwilling to go the extra mile. They were leaked early to be the first offer out to Beltre and he chose elsewhere. This is a way for them to show Bud that they are trying to sign players, but they are unwilling to sign so he will allow them to move to San Jose.
We can't afford to go the extra mile
If we went 6/100 on Beltre to beat out Texas and he came here and hit .260/20/80, we would be in pretty bad shape financially going forward.
For the record, these are Beltre’s road splits this year:
.258, 3 HR, 20 R, 26 RBI (.669 OPS)
Better than Koozmanoff, but not worth $100M
And the conspiracy theory
Isn’t a theory and it isn’t a plot on the part of anyone. It is reality. Oakland isn’t viable and the team needs to move. Every time this proves itself people say Wolff is manupulating the data… he isn’t. This is how it is.
probably would change that to "Coliseum isn't viable"
Oakland may not be viable either, but that’s not really applicable to FA’s.
by Billy Frijoles on Jul 11, 2011 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions
A's were #3 on Beltré
Angels beat the A’s offer. Boras took the Angels’ offer to Texas, which then beat it.
Berkman did not take the A’s offer because it was strictly as a DH. He said he would have considered it had there been no starting position player offers.
by OaklandSi on Jul 11, 2011 12:20 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Just don't be too sure that you (or any reader) have all the info on Beltre.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Sorry, I believe her before I believe you becuase you don't put hte little squiggle over the E in Beltré
BOTTOM LINE
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
by mikev on Jul 11, 2011 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Totally fair.
Just don’t be too sure that you (or any reader) have all the info on Beltré either.
bottom liné
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
one of these days you’re gonna have to quit just hinting…
by AV on Jul 11, 2011 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions
I wish I could.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I've never claimed to have all the info
I’ve made my own speculations, which are that they made him a reasonable offer very early in the FA process and didn’t bother upping the bid until other teams started to bid as well.
I also believe that he had no intention of signing with Oakland as long as someone else had an offer that was close to Oakland’s.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Not to mention "Adrián".
Oakland Si is the queen of the squiggle!
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
the little squiggle thing on top of the e in Beltré!
I don’t know what its real name is.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
well if you want to get all technical about it.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Not just any accent, but acute one.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Nolan has little to do with the Rangers revival
people overlook that for all intents and purposes that Ryan is just a figure head with little finical stake. What makes Texas successful is good PR, a good young GM and being owned by 2 Texas oil billionaires that only require the club to break even, not to payout, for them to be pleased with the situation.
The A’s problems are all tied to revenue. It is just that simple. The problem is that the current situation is on life support and the lack of viable options have put the powers that be in a no win position.
JD’s like, "you want some f*&#ing pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, b*#&hes!"- RCCook
LSB: "Oh s#*t, JD. You crazy!"
I'm not sure that's entirely true, though
By being among the most successful 1/3 at drafting, and the most successful 1/3 at player development, the A’s could compete. Unfortunately, they have been nowhere near either.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Off topic:
The article is now gone (no idea why) but I think Fangraphs is about to announce that they’re going to carry SIERA. The whole article is still in their RSS feed.
Unless that stat charts how much a player looks like Ruben Sierra
I’m not interested. Tell me why I should be, please
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
Not a big fan of FIP actually
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
What does that mean?
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
From the guy who wrote
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
It doesn’t seem like you’d care too much for something like FIP.
I was mocking a mentality
Not the stats themselves. As you can see by my comments below, I don’t like the way people throw out those numbers in regards to some of the prospects. Never said that BABIP and K rates were stupid in general, which I don’t believe. You’re making a blind assumption that isn’t true
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
I was blinded by your DURRRR's.
Apologies.
by NateHST on Jul 10, 2011 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Accepted.
Thanks for reading my response and not running away on a tangent
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
Just don't like the idea behind it
Fielding Independent pitching? I don’t like the idea that “There is little if any difference among major-league pitchers in their ability to prevent hits on balls hit in the field of play.” I don’t necessarily agree with that sentiment.
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
Sure, but the numbers disagree.
Over and over, studies have shown that there is indeed little if any difference among major-league pitchers in their ability to prevent hits on balls hit in the field of play. I mean…it’s your right to believe otherwise, but when you’ve got hundreds and hundreds of pages of evidence staring at you in the face…
Well durrrrr
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Dear Jesus
I feel like I’m getting an unwarranted bad rap here. I’m not an anti-sabermetric person. I buy into a ton of the new age stats. My comment was about a mentality, like I told NateHST. Not about BABIP or K rates themselves.
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
It's like saying you don't like the idea behind quantum physics.
I mean…sure, I guess, but at this point, we’re going off of likes and dislikes, not actual facts.
So you don't think certain sinkerball pitchers are just destined for more success
because of the amount of ground balls they induce? Sure, they have days where the ground balls just find the holes, but doesn’t it seem like they have more days where the ground balls mostly become outs?
I just think there has to be exceptions, is what I’m saying
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
Just because there may be exceptions doesn't mean it's a poor stat or doesn't make sense
Last of the Ninth - Photography
OK, sure
All I’m saying is, it’s not my favorite stat. Is that fair?
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
First off:
Sinkerball pitchers don’t allow as many homeruns, which IS taken into account in FIP. And if you take out the home runs and just look at batted balls in play, a pitcher’s BABIP generally doesn’t correlate from year to year. In other words, it’s not a skill the pitcher has. Why credit him for it?
based on what though? Brett Anderson gets more groundballs than Trevor Cahill
but Cahill has this reputation on AN as some magical fairy pitcher who makes guys hit billions of grounders for easy outs, and Anderson doesn’t.
How do you determine why one sinkerballer is better than another?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
But does anyone believe Andersen is not a great pitcher
when healthy? I guess I’m not seeing the correlation
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
there's a lot more to being a great pitcher than just groundball rate, basically.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Isn't that an argument against SIERA, though?
On the one hand, you’re saying that FIP is better than eyeballs because it counts all balls in play the same and therefore screens out the non-skill portion. But then on the other hand you’re saying that SIERA is better than FIP precisely because it distinguishes between different kinds of balls in play.
This sounds to me like the tRA-vs-FIP debate all over again. It seems to me that deep down fans have no faith in the basic DIPS concept and their gut feeling makes them want to make the number more precise by distinguishing balls in play more finely. But at what point are you adding more noise than signal?
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Yeah, what he said!
Actually, your comment has blown my mind, and I shall spend the next five minutes trying to understand it
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
This will help some.
“Introducing SIERA” from Baseball Prospectus.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
It helped to look up DIPS
Had somehow never run across it. Your comment makes more sense now.
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
Not really.
On the one hand, you’re saying that FIP is better than eyeballs because it counts all balls in play the same and therefore screens out the non-skill portion. But then on the other hand you’re saying that SIERA is better than FIP precisely because it distinguishes between different kinds of balls in play.
The differences in balls in play exist, but they’re quite small. So treating them all the same is quite a good approximation of skill. SIERA goes one step further, and tries to quantify those small differences that do exist. It’s not, however, a refutation of DIPS. Just a tweak to the model.
This sounds to me like the tRA-vs-FIP debate all over again. It seems to me that deep down fans have no faith in the basic DIPS concept and their gut feeling makes them want to make the number more precise by distinguishing balls in play more finely. But at what point are you adding more noise than signal?
tRA adds just as much noise as it does signal, since it predicts future ERA at the same level of accuracy as FIP. But SIERA is legitimately better at prediction. It adds more signal than noise.
O/T
The baseball sabermetrics revolution seems to have rubbed off on basketball a little bit, as I see new stats being used to quantify player performance on basketball fan sites. In fact, using stats in new ways was something many writers said Mark Cuban and Rick Carlisle did this season, which helped the under-the-radar Mavericks win the title.
It made me wonder, have there been any attempts to apply more statistical analysis to football? I can’t imagine what these new stats would be, but I’m sure people couldn’t imagine things like UZR and SIERA years ago.
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
I don't really know much about basketball, but yeah, there's definitely a rising stats movement.
Football is a lot harder, because unlike baseball, it’s a team game. Baseball is a series of individual occurrences, which makes it really easy to analyze statistically. Everything in football involves a ton of people working together, so it’s hard to separate anything.
That said, I’ve seen some sites that try to do advances stats work on football. Haven’t really read up on it, at all, though.
True, baseball has always been a numbers game
But maybe someone will find a way to quantify how well receivers run routes, and then incorporate that into a metric that shows how much a player running the best routes contributes to offensive production. Or find a way to calculate the expected number of broken tackles for a running back based on previous results. Who knows, but I’m sure people will find ways to use more stats in football.
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
There's tons of great football stuff
Go to footballoutsiders.com.
Here’s an example of some good football mind-blowing statistical insight:
Quarterbacks have much more control over their “sacks allowed” than most fans think, and more control over their “interceptions” than most fans think.
Most fans blame qb’s for their interception totals, and the offensive line for all sacks. But the advanced stats suggest they shouldn’t.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 11, 2011 7:56 AM PDT up reply actions
qb's are LESS to blame for INTs than most fans think
there was a typo in the middle there, sorry for confusion.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 11, 2011 7:58 AM PDT up reply actions
baseball is like an eye dropper of instances—no wonder stats were born out of it. but i’m interested in how it’s spreading out, especially for soccer and fluid games like that. US football is a team sport and harder to stat individually, but it also has a stop-n-go play structure and that must help. soccer is fluid throughout. how hard is that to quantify? i’ve been checking out http://www.powerstats101.com/ but i’m not sure it’s that convincing.
In soccer they are doing great stuff with scoring opportunties
and how well different combinations of players play together.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 11, 2011 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions
If you go insidethebook.com and skim their article archive...
Tango links to great articles on statistics research in football, soccer, and hoops as well.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 11, 2011 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions
football outsiders
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Fair enough.
I just worry that each time you split the data you further tax the sample size. Sure, we have a ton of data, but players change as time passes and if you reduce the ratio of sample-over-time then you are less able keep current.
Also, I really do believe that, regardless of what is motivating FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, what drives a lot of the fan enthusiasm for SIERA over FIP, particularly among those who aren’t well versed in statistics, is the gut feeling that FIP is too crude and the way to improve it is to add formulas that “look more carefully”. I think that is a fundamentally unscientific instinct contrary to the core sabermetric ideas.
Which is to say, more generally, that I think there is within the broader sabermetric community a counter-reaction which is fundamentally unsabermetric, and that reaction is pushing the main advanced stats in a less sabermetric direction. I see that also in the alleged improvements to PECOTA since Silver left.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Yeah, this is probably a minority opinion,
but I actually enjoy FIP for that reason—it’s simple. The formula is dead simple, and yet, it predicts just as well as tRA, which uses a whole bunch of linear weights that change all the time.
Which is to say, more generally, that I think there is within the broader sabermetric community a counter-reaction which is fundamentally unsabermetric, and that reaction is pushing the main advanced stats in a less sabermetric direction.
Well, like all things, sabermetrics can only go so far. They have taken the game a looooong way, but perhaps there just aren’t many new discoveries left. So taking it on an unsabermetric route may just be the result of hitting a wall, so to speak. People are looking to go deeper or be more accurate, but maybe some of these stats just can’t get much better.
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
I think you're misunderstanding my position.
(Not surprising, since it’s a pretty esoteric one.)
I’m saying that a lot of the advanced stats commonly perceived as being even more sabermetric, are actually traditional thinking in disguise.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I don't think our statements contradict each other
Because these advanced stats that you think may be traditional in disguise, may be the result of what I suggested: people keep trying to refine things more and come up with new ideas, but maybe there’s just not many more ways to break the game down.
So people think they’re onto something new, but it turns out to be what you suggested: just traditional-esque thinking under a different name or disguised by stats.
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
By the way,
what do you mean by the improvements to PECOTA post-Silver? By Wyers, I guess? I haven’t been keeping up at all with PECOTA. What have they changed?
Mostly, I hate the very notion of team PECOTA.
It’s completely fucked up in its very concept, and yet it’s the part that gets most quoted by fans. And since BP responds to the fans, it gets churned out.
What I love about (player) PECOTA is the core philosophy, ie, using huge amounts of data to find past patterns that match a current player’s profile, and then projecting from that. It makes no effort to understand why a player of a particular profile should break out or collapse, but only the rate at which other ones have done so.
PECOTA is fundamentally different from the other projection systems in this, and that’s a big part of why in previous years it has sometimes diverged wildly from everyone else, sometimes correctly and sometimes incorrectly. It is the nature of its probabilistic calculus that it’s going to have some wacky bad guesses, but at the same time that keeps it immune from groupthink and gives it the possibility of seeing things that others don’t — in a sense, because it is open to believing that which it doesn’t know or understand.
In recent years PECOTA has been repeatedly tweaked. I don’t know exactly what the tweaks are. I don’t even know if they have been made public. But along the way I get the strong impression that BP has been sensitive to the pressure of PECOTA being perceived as somewhat wild. This is something we see in a lot of sciences (eg, economic forecasting). There is safety in numbers. If you project wrong but so does everyone else, you aren’t an idiot, but if you project wrong and everyone else is right you look the fool.
I believe — and this is my personal feeling, which I can’t back up with evidence — that BP has tweaked PECOTA in ways to make it look more like other projection systems. They run their numbers and think, “Uh oh, this looks fishy. We can’t publish it like this, we’ll get laughed at.” So instead of examining the model for what is fundamentally sound, they push levers until the results look acceptable to them. I see this as a betrayal of the basic philosophy, a loss of faith in the core idea that made PECOTA what it is.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
by iglew on Jul 11, 2011 12:19 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
I haven't read all the updates
But most of the stuff that I have read about PECOTA suggests that many of the changes involved programming changes (moving from an unwieldy Excel spreadsheet to a database of some sort). The only one that I remember off the top of my head was that they were trying to add in more information about injuries (although your argument may be that it took that into account before as a probability based on similar players who got injured). I do agree that a lot of their rhetoric was aimed at making it more "palatable to the masses) if you will, but I’m not sure how much the core of PECOTA has actually changed.
rec'd, iglew
I totally agree with those points. I also think BP lost a ton when Silver left, period. I think Silver is a genius. Whatever he chose to devote 60-70 hours a week to in his life was going to be special. Baseball’s loss and politics’ gain that he devotes more time there now.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 11, 2011 8:04 AM PDT up reply actions
totally agree about Nate Silver
"I think what baseball projects, and what classical music needs, is the sense that one goes to a live event not to experience greatness, but to experience the possibility of greatness.... Not every game is great but what we go for is the chance that this particular game might be.' —David Lang
by King Richard on Jul 11, 2011 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes, me too.
NS is awesome.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
woooooooo!
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 10, 2011 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions
I really hope so. The weird thing is that historical SIERA's haven't been all that
comparable to current SIERA’s, e.g. Bob Gibson had a career SIERA of 4.08. I think they need SIERA+
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 10, 2011 7:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Hmm.
FIP is scaled to the league average of the year. They might need to make an adjustment to SIERA for that.
Man...
I was getting myself all psyched up about Choice’s recent performance, and look what you’ve done now. Sheesh.
I don't think it's going to take 2 yrs
for Choice to make the club. He’s doing so well lately in AA, he stands a good chance to make the team out of ST or get the call up early next season.
by sf drift king on Jul 10, 2011 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Stockton is High-A?
did not know that.
by sf drift king on Jul 10, 2011 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions
my bad
all this time, I’ve been thinking the opposite..
by sf drift king on Jul 10, 2011 5:25 PM PDT up reply actions
probably because some players go to stockton
on rehab assignments before going to sac. thats only because of proximity to oakland and to sac
by heartstopper on Jul 11, 2011 8:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Problem with Choice catching fire lately....
All the really good pitchers in A ball are already up in AA now – everyone’s stats go up this time of year. I don’t think his improvement is real…
Of course not
but when it does mean is the top couple of pitchers from each are gone, and have been replaced with less experienced players.. It matters.
It is good, but tinez14 makes a good point --
the point to me being that perhaps this IS a good time to promote Choice, as it’s only really “half a level” since he’d be facing a lot of guys who were in A-ball this year. I hadn’t thought of that.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Oh, they should absolutely promote him any time
But at the same time, he’s still facing a lot of comparatively good pitchers even if some have been promoted already.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
choice's batting #s are odd. how rare is it that he has more hr's than doubles at this point in the season
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
Sorry, I buy into this.
I think KLaw said this, but it doesn’t really make sense. Did all major league teams decide to promote their prospects all at once? I mean he hit 6 home runs in 10 games. Also, who replaces the top notch pitchers? Just seems like flimsy argument.
by asyouwish33 on Jul 10, 2011 11:09 PM PDT up reply actions
I Think The A's
could get some nice young talent for Willingham (or just get some draft picks after offering arbitration)
DeJesus, Crisp, Pennington, Balfour, Bailey, Zeigler, Breslow, McCarthy and Harden may also be able to net some nice young talent. I wouldn’t mind the lineup looking somewhat like this for the remaining couple months of the year.
1B- Chris Carter
2B- Jemile Weeks
SS- Cliff Pennington/ Young player acquired in a trade
3B- Scott Sizemore
C- Kurt Suzuki/ Anthony Recker
LF- Michael Taylor
CF- Jai Miller
RF- Jermaine Mitchell/ Ryan Sweeney
DH- Adrian Cardenas
Mila "Sweet Lips" Kunis, as stated by Scarlett Johansson. I couldn't agree more. Reverse would be true too!!!!
by nocal81(Vincent) on Jul 10, 2011 5:00 PM PDT reply actions
RE: Your sig
Of course Kunis “Sweet Lips” Mila would be true, too, it’s only reversed!
/snark
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
Baahhahahahah
Mila "Sweet Lips" Kunis, as stated by Scarlett Johansson. I couldn't agree more. Reverse would be true too!!!!
by nocal81(Vincent) on Jul 10, 2011 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Sinu Kalim.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
If options weren't a point of consideration...
I think I’d take that lineup after the all star break lol
"Yeah, all I could find was Triple-Sec and rootbeer...What?! You mean you had tequila the whole time?!"
Minor League Stats
Jai Miller: .296-.401-.670- 21 HR- 58 RBI
Jermaine Mitchell: .355-.453-.589- 10 HR- 50 RBI- 14 SB (AA Midland)
Michael Taylor: .273-.348-.454- 9 HR- 33 RBI
Adrian Cardenas: .306-.380-.406-3 HR- 30 RBI
Anthony Recker: .305-.400-.530- 12 HR- 36 RBI
Would they be any worse than DeJesus, Matsui etc… at this point? And, if so does it really matter at this point? Give the young players a chance
Mila "Sweet Lips" Kunis, as stated by Scarlett Johansson. I couldn't agree more. Reverse would be true too!!!!
by nocal81(Vincent) on Jul 10, 2011 5:07 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I agree with you 100 percent
But get ready to see this:
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
are you fucking serious right now?
bullshit posts exactly like that one are the reason that tons of great posters have left this site.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
by mikev on Jul 10, 2011 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm just tired of hearing the same old arguments
When they’re based on AAA numbers. Could they be indicative of poor success at the major league level? Sure they could be. Hell, maybe there’s only a 20 percent chance any of these players will be any good.
But how about we let the kids come to the majors and see what happens before completely dismissing them?
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
Yeah, I think more teams should adopt the practice
of putting together a team full of mediocre AAA players because maybe 20% of them will be okay.
Hey, how's the major league lineup hitting?
Oh, like shit? That’s right. So maybe we should just give the kids a damn chance already, which is what I have been advocating. But cool argument, bro
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
Of course they're hitting like shit, it's the A's.
But I want to see those AAA players get a chance because they trade away everybody else with value, and not because I’m deluded into thinking they’ll be better.
if one was to look at francuer's numbers
before being called up they would see he was a AA player hitting around 245
by heartstopper on Jul 11, 2011 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Matt Carson has OPSed like 900 in AAA for like three years now.
Just saying.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Tell me what you really think?
Attacking a post without replying directly to it, that really makes a whole lot of sense doesn’t it? You may actually have some credibility if you came up with a strong counter argument.
This is what you just committed sir
red herring — An attempt to divert attention from the crux of an argument by introduction of anecdote, irrelevant detail, subsidiary facts, tangential references, and the like
Also, some people seem to think that I am a good enough writer with valid points. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be writing front page for Niners Nation. Been interviewed multiple times by radio outlets. Oh, and had the pleasure of interviewing Cliff Branch himself.
Sometimes, it makes more sense to attack the argument not the individual making it.
Mila "Sweet Lips" Kunis, as stated by Scarlett Johansson. I couldn't agree more. Reverse would be true too!!!!
by nocal81(Vincent) on Jul 10, 2011 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions
huh?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Response to this comment from you
are you fucking serious right now?
bullshit posts exactly like that one are the reason that tons of great posters have left this site.
Mila "Sweet Lips" Kunis, as stated by Scarlett Johansson. I couldn't agree more. Reverse would be true too!!!!
by nocal81(Vincent) on Jul 10, 2011 6:33 PM PDT up reply actions
that was not a response to you.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Oh shit, my bad
Ignore………..slowly walk away for tail between my legs
Mila "Sweet Lips" Kunis, as stated by Scarlett Johansson. I couldn't agree more. Reverse would be true too!!!!
by nocal81(Vincent) on Jul 10, 2011 6:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Hah
What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.
How very innapropriate and nonsensical
yet, slightly hilarious would it be if that truly was your reply to nocol81 comment? I’d laugh. Sorry.
by asyouwish33 on Jul 10, 2011 11:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Jai Miller DOES strikeout a lot.
He strikes out more than Cust does, by a lot. Also, mikev is right, this is a pretty dumb fucking thing to post.
How many players in baseball history have "projected" to be stars
And end up being total shit? Projections are just estimations. We can’t be sure about these kids until they come to the A’s, and I’m tired of everyone acting like they are just absolutely certain these players will be crap when they haven’t been given a chance in Oakland.
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
im pretty certain most of those guys will be crap.
but i would also like to see them get at bats instead of matsui and jackson.
i think many people take this position. they arent mutually exclusive. you are tearing down a straw man.
You have it all wrong.
Nobody is absolutely certain anybody is going to succeed or fail. What we do is look at numbers that are usually effective predictors of whether or not a player will be good. Does a pitcher strike lots of hitters out? On the other hand, does a hitter strike out a lot?
There are a lot of good indicators that you should look at. That is what we’re doing. Nobody is saying, “Miller is shit and he always will be.” We’re saying, “He’ll likely have a hard time making enough contact to be a very good hitter.”
That's where I think you're wrong
Nobody is saying, "Miller is shit and he always will be." We’re saying, "He’ll likely have a hard time making enough contact to be a very good hitter."
It sure seems to me like most people who cite the BABIP and high K rate are saying exactly that: Miller is shit and isn’t worth the roster space
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
NateHST is too nice.
miller most likely is shit. on pretty much every other team, he isn’t worth the roster spot to figure out if he isn’t shit.
but this is a team that employs hideki matsui, conor jackson, amongst other replacement level dreck. so yes, perhaps miller should play instead of those guys.
Not only that, but last year he was in Sacramento and was released after going 4-for-34 in 10 games...
…while striking out 19 times and walking 3 times. Then he landed in the Royals system and became a free agent at the end of the season.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
This is the mentality I don't like
61 Major League PAs. That’s it. Just give him a damn chance in MLB before saying he’s total shit, that’s what I’m saying
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
that's strange because im actually the only one in this thread advocating a position similar to yours (give miller a shot).
although your definition of a “chance” for miller to prove himself (61 PAs!) gave me quite a chuckle.
No, that's how many career PAs he has
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
I agree with you on this over Tripp
but it’s just as dumb to dismiss the stats a player’s posting as it is to dismiss the player himself.
No.
What’s happening is people are saying OMFG CALL UP JAI MILLER HE HAS A 1.000 OPS AND IS AWESOME ZOMG
and then other people are saying Woah there, hold the fuck on. Look at the numbers more closely, because the thing is: minor league pitchers, for the most part, aren’t that good. Major League pitchers, for the most part, are REALLY REALLY good. Even the scrubs, the Matt Harrisons and the Phil Cokes of the world. Just ask Chris Carter how much better big league pitching is than minor leaguers. Ask Matt Carson, or Dan Johnson, or any other number of guys who rake in the minors and then can’t do shit in the big leagues.
K rate is important in the minors. Really important. If a guy isn’t consistently making contact against guys who are (a lot) worse than Phil Coke or Matt Harrison, they’re going to make even less contact against, oh, Jeff Weaver or CJ Wilson.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
by mikev on Jul 10, 2011 6:04 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
This, mostly
Though, Triple-A pitchers are mostly at a level that’s pretty close to the bigs, talent discrepancies aside.
Or, at least, going by this recent blog entry by a minor league pitcher, people in Triple-A better know what they want to do whether or not they’re ultimately successful at it:
http://ryantatusko.tumblr.com/post/6963639127/the-jump
It’s mostly in the first two paragraphs.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
That's pretty awesome
I heard a few years back that the big difference between AAA and the majors in that in AAA a batter can lay off a breaking pitch and be pretty sure it’ll be called a ball, but major league pitchers are major league pitchers because they can throw off-speed stuff for strikes regularly.
He's got some decent insights
Chatted with the guy on Twitter last year while he was still in the Rangers org and got to say hello before the Texas League All-Star Game, then before the season was over he was traded to the Washington organization.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
OK, some people are going apeshit on the OPS
And for every person doing that, there are those using BABIP and K Rate to complete dismiss him as worthless.
As with most things, the truth should be somewhere in the middle. Do the K rate and BABIP look worrisome? Yes. But I don’t want someone with 61 MLB PAs completely dismissed because of them, when he hasn’t had a chance in the majors. That’s all I’m saying – give him a chance. Especially on this team of total shit hitters.
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
He should get a chance by the end of the season
But nobody should expect much.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Well, that's a more fair way to put it
And for the record, I don’t expect him to be a world-beater. But hey, you never know.
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
simply a ranger beater would be enough
if he were a giant beater too that would be KILLER
by heartstopper on Jul 11, 2011 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions
Honestly I don't care either way if he gets a shot.
But he’s also not on the 40 man roster, so that means other transactions besides a callup.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
As in other transactions have to be done for him to get a call up?
That doesn’t seem like a good sign for him
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
there has to be a 40 man spot cleared
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
I can think of a few guys who don't deserve a 40-man spot
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
that can be easily fixed.
dfa matsui and jackson. add miller and mitchell to the 40 man.
I didn't say it wasn't an easy fix
I was just pointing it out.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
I hate your addition of my comment to your sig
Once again, as I explained previously, my comment was never an indictment of BABIP or K Rates. I actually think BABIP is a great stat. The comment was in regards to a mentality I noticed in recent comments that I didn’t like.
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
I think it's funny.
it’s not meant to be insulting to you
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
I totally agree with this
It confounds me how ppl can watch Carter, who’s been mostly pounding the ball at every level of Minors the last few yrs, struggle like he has no business being in the Majors, and turn right around and think that Taylor could somehow put up decent numbers up in the big show.
from what others have said int he past
carter has initially struggled at each step of the way initially before pounding.
last year could have been another example of this…. 0-34 then 13 39 with 3hrs
by heartstopper on Jul 11, 2011 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions
Not really.
People say, “I know there’s a good chance he can’t do it in the majors, but nobody on the big-league team is doing anything useful either, so why not give him the chance he’s earned?”
Which gets immediately translated into “OMFG CALL UP JAI MILLER HE HAS A 1.000 OPS AND IS AWESOME ZOMG” as if there is software for it.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
allow me to reiterate
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
This is what it turns into when facts and reasons are presented as to why it makes no sense, as well as the facts that guys currently on the 25 man roster with long histories of MLB level production (ie DDJ, Willingham) are having flukish down seasons and you can reasonably expect them to come back to their expected levels of hitting
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
too old is like playing on JV when you should be on Varsity
Of course you’re going to own that game, because you’re older
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 10, 2011 5:55 PM PDT up reply actions
can Jai Miller
be one of those late bloomers, I wonder? I say it wouldn’t hurt to give him a sniff of the big leagues.
by sf drift king on Jul 10, 2011 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions
well if you use the carter compared to barton analogy
YES it could be worse…. especially when you take in the effect of fielding. however, carter for barton had to be done. we simply need to know
by heartstopper on Jul 11, 2011 8:47 AM PDT up reply actions
rec'd for use of Hyperbole and a Half
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 10, 2011 5:55 PM PDT up reply actions
-1 for someone slapping a watermark on that.
For shame, diylol.com.
by danmerqury on Jul 10, 2011 5:56 PM PDT up reply actions 5 recs
7 reasons why Beane should be fired
1. Failed to develop a decent minor league system
2. Failed to hire and retain scouts-coaches-managers at the minor league level who can develop players
3. Beane is inflexible and does not learn from prior mistakes. He continues to sign oft injured-aged players whose careers were over (Giambi-Piazza-Garciaparra-Kendall-Sweeney-Fox-Cust-Matsui)
4. Failed at most trades. Bradley for Ethier-Trading C Gonzalez and Brett Wallace
5. Failed to correct issues related to medical staff and trainers. A’s always lead the league in DL stints
6. Failed to terminate an ineffective manager Bob Geren
7. Failed to change style of play despite the A’s lack of offensive production. Oakland is a pitchers park. An Offense requiring speed-stolen bases-hit and run-sacrafice bunting-bunting for hits-advancing runners
by dontex on Jul 10, 2011 5:17 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
lol at #4
Hey remember what he got for Dan Haren? How about Mulder? Swisher? Give me a break. The Holliday-Gonzalez trade set the A’s back a lot, and that’s inexcusable, but Beane has a pretty damn good track record when it comes to trades.
I feel like the second Holliday trade
was worse than the first. The first trade is easily seen as a calculated gamble that didn’t pan out. A failure, yes, but not a complete blunder, and unlike most here I do give credit to Beane for having the balls to try to make a big splash. The second trade just looks like Beane was stuck needing to sell low on Holliday and got crap back for it.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
IIRC, there were a LOT of people hoping for Wallace, myself included.
Most of us were deluded into the idea that Wallace could stick at 3B, and the fact that we passed on his power to take Weeks in the draft helped foster those feelings.
Let’s not forget about Peterson, though, who’s only 23 and has hit wherever the A’s have assigned him. He’s still got a chance to be a productive major leaguer. I remember comps to some type of poor man’s Curtis Granderson, which I’d take.
by NateHST on Jul 10, 2011 11:52 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
You have renewed my hope.
I never thought much of Peterson. If he turns out to be the surprise gem in this trade, that would be awesome.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
maybe it would have helped if beane had spoken to the player
(holiday) before pulling the trigger on the trade. he never wanted to come here and attitude has a lot to do with performance
by heartstopper on Jul 11, 2011 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Alrighty.
1. Our farm system was in the top 3 in the entire league just two years ago. Anderson? Cahill? Remember them?
2. Yeah, Ron Romanick has done nothing in ages.
3. Heh.
4. Yeah, I’m bored with the rest of this list.
OMG
WHAT!!!!Bob Geren is still the coach
by theblackpearl on Jul 10, 2011 10:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Are you here for any other purpose than to spew negativity every time you comment?
Last of the Ninth - Photography
No Flashfire
I love the A’s, always will that will never change, through good times and bad, but as a fan I have the right an obligation to make comment . You might not like or agree with my comment, that’s fine cause I might not like yours, we can certainly disgree. I do have one positive comment for you , I think we have a future all star second baseman.
Just sayin' - check the CGs about relentless negativity
I realize the team is in a bad spot right now, but if all someone writes is negative stuff…
Last of the Ninth - Photography
i feel some roster decisions aren’t 100% about play, but a little bit about trying to get butts in the seats through branding-type strategies, such as enlisting names that fans on the fence about going to 1-5 games a year can easily recognize.
Agreed.
I think Jason Giambi and Nomar Garciaparra were partly motivated by that consideration.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
and it might have worked
had the A’s not relied on Chavvy to play 3B regularly, and Giambi had not been forced to play 1B regularly. That one big mistake forced both Giambi and Nomar to play more than they should have, leading Nomar to an extended DL stay and even more quickly declining production from Giambi.
#4 I disagree
We got Damon, Dye, Guillen, got rid of Mulder for a windfall, etc.
He missed on Hudson and maybe the Cargo/Holliday debacle, but every GM has a few whiffs.
- doesn’t seem true either.
- they fired their entire minor and major league training staff and since then we have been relatively healthy. Injuries to young pitchers are something everyone has to deal with.
- he did terminate geren
- - he tried to do exactly what you are asking for. But when your players are hitting below the mendoza line no amount of bunts and steals will lead you to victory.
- you may have a point.
- not sure.
by Billy Frijoles on Jul 11, 2011 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions
I hate to say this buy you are right Nico we need to get really bad in order to get better
We need a couple 2 or 3 years of drafting in the top 5 to get some really great position players like what the Rays did. Of course that is no guarantee that we will actually make the right picks but that is just my humble opinion
Check out my Cycling blog http://cyclebee.blogspot.com/
Jim Callis
Nope. Offensive second baseman. @bchad50: does Grant Green have enough glove to stick at SS? #Athletics
Jemile Weeks
centerfielder.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Is Choice playing CF?
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 10, 2011 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Maybe Weeks can learn 3rd?
LOL
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 10, 2011 6:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Works for me.
Though his lob throw to Conor Jackson would be even weirder coming from CF.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
damn.
we really need someone to replace pennington.
damn
we really need someone to replace _______ (insert name)
by robertmelvin on Jul 10, 2011 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Eric Sogard is doing really well at the plate
I have no idea what he’s like at SS, but the guy is simply a better hitter than cliff.
John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson
as a fan, it's hard to accept sucking for a few more years
but that does seem like the only way to get better. I’ve essentially accepted that the A’s will likely not be good again until the ballpark situation gets worked out – and that’s gonna be at least a few (more likely several) more years. I’ll still attend games and be a fan – it’s just, losing ain’t as fun A’s winning, ya know?
by my_cat_max on Jul 10, 2011 6:00 PM PDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs
Everything, Nico has summarized, in general is right on!! Some of my points:
1. Somehow through all of this 5-year period, Billy has been able to escape accountability thanks, mostly to his share holding, out weighing his GM responsibilities.
2. Nothing will really change until either Lew needs the ball park issue decided in his favor, or Lew sells the team.
3. AN is the most valuable intelligencia resource that the A’s have, but I am sure they don’t, or won’t, realize it.
+1 to Nico's post and about 75% of the commentary that followed in this thread
Okay now, 2nd Half of the Season, WATCH OUT HOUSTON ASTORS! We are horrible and we want that #1 pick……It is going to be incredibly hard to suck that bad, even for this team, given that we actually have some SPs, but still, our offense can take us there.
My mannerism a prism/ And it should shine
Light it if you would/ Be so kind, right now'd
Be A' Good Time
by DaRubiesSLOKingsA's on Jul 10, 2011 6:18 PM PDT reply actions
Actually, the Houston Astros haven't started spelling their name astors yet, as I stated above
despite being 30-62 going into the All-Star Break…..Remember when I thought we were a Hunter Pence and Carlos Pena away from winning the AL West? Good times.
My mannerism a prism/ And it should shine
Light it if you would/ Be so kind, right now'd
Be A' Good Time
by DaRubiesSLOKingsA's on Jul 10, 2011 6:21 PM PDT up reply actions
hey, PL78 still thinks that.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 10, 2011 7:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Good times.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
The A's seem to be just like the "Warriors" in this aspect...
… always screwing up their draft position at the end of the season
The Oakland Coliseum complex seems to be cursed
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
The curse of the suck!!!
"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."
"He's chicken curry right now. He'll become beef curry a little later on."
-Keith Smart
this is a reason to trade any mediocre hitters and bring up the AAA kids
not that they’ll be any good (they presumably will be worse), but because we ’ain’t winning, anyway, so we might as well lose with the garbage players, get SOME picks/prospects in return, and make sure we get a top draft spot.
by guy incognito on Jul 10, 2011 6:26 PM PDT up reply actions
yankees are looking for a short term replacement for a-rod.
quick, send them kouz.
Someone posted yesterday this was actually a rumor
Don’t know what the validity is to it
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
he's hitting a ton in AAA
kouzmanoff has obviously rediscovered his hitting stroke, which will translate to a MLB line of .240/.300/.400 line.
by guy incognito on Jul 10, 2011 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Not a terrible idea.
Could be a win-win trade. Kouz has no future here, especially now with Sizemore looking decent. There’s still a possibility that Kouz can become good again, at least temporarily, and the Yankees can afford to take a gamble on that possibility. It’s not like it would be a big commitment for them, if it’s just a temporary injury replacement. If Kouz wakes up, they win. If he continues to suck, well, they throw him out and try something else. It’s not like they’re pushing anyone else aside for him.
The one concern would be that if he does hit well in New York, the A’s fan base will go apeshit about how Beane sucks and gave up too soon on our great and beloved superstar Kouzmanoff, conveniently forgetting how much we all despised Kouz and couldn’t wait to get him off the team.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
by iglew on Jul 11, 2011 12:01 AM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
So what would the A's most likely try to get in such a trade
To get someone to eat most of his salary, or get some kind of decent prospect in return?
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
Now this isn't quite correct, iglew. If the A's give up on Kouz, gets nothing for him and he succeeds,...
I WILL post “I told you so’s” on AN. Not all of us hate the guy, as we remember the catastrophy before he got here.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
And then remembered it all over again this year ;-)
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 11, 2011 7:41 AM PDT up reply actions
Touche!
Do you think Bobo’s method of platooning might have had a detrimental effect on many of the A’s hitters, including Kouz? It seemed that every time someone started to get hot, he benched them. This doesn’t seem like a great way to get hitters into a groove and increase their confidence.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
It was a Not Bob Geren joke we started that poked fun of this
But, I think it really was just Bobo trying to find a lineup that continually produced runs. He tried to platoon his way out of a slump, and it had the collateral damage of sitting “hot” players.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 11, 2011 7:54 AM PDT up reply actions
I had concerns about this last year.
Rajai, for example, would go 4-4 and then sit for a week. I understand this is just an impression, but the amount of times it happened gives credence to the claim.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
well, Rajai blew against RHP
He generally played against LHP. I don’t think he had the requisite 2000 PA against RHP, but he was so bad against them it was pretty obvious.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 11, 2011 8:01 AM PDT up reply actions
I was just using Rajai as an example. Geren did it many other times as well.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
Your pre-emptive "I told you so" is duly noted.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
but chavez will be available off the 60 day DL
yeah right. broken foot, a strained back, and now an abdominal injury. will he ever give up
by heartstopper on Jul 11, 2011 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions
Uh oh
This is from someone who works Ports games:
Not a great start for Tyson Ross. 1B, SB, BB, RBI-1B, F9, SB, K, SB, F8. 22 pitches (8 balls, 14 strikes)
Can’t be a good sign about Ross that the Ports have someone quickly warming up in the bullpen while they bat here in the bottom of the 1st.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
hurt again
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
.
Stockton Ports
Tyson Ross has left the game after one inning. Now pitching for the Ports is James Simmons.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
HINDSIGHT ALERT
WHY DIDN’T WE TRADE HIM, KOUZ, RAJAI, AND SOMEONE ELSE FOR MATT KEMP LAST OFFSEASON
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Maybe Matt Kemp's BABIP is too high
;)
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
Why do we always let other teams do that?
We’re so passive. “DAMMIT YOU’LL GIVE US MATT KEMP AND LIKE IT!!!!!”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
seems to work for NY and BOS
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
So this should be our new GM?
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
You forgot the, ", BITCH" at the end of that, Nico
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
Awesome
Fuck me
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
it's his babip, isn't it?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
I hate you guys
I’m going to go talk to Joe Morgan about how dumb you guys are
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
Thanks for that
Mila "Sweet Lips" Kunis, as stated by Scarlett Johansson. I couldn't agree more. Reverse would be true too!!!!
by nocal81(Vincent) on Jul 10, 2011 6:46 PM PDT up reply actions
I seriously thought that was fake
It’s more awesome because it’s real
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
by darooster on Jul 10, 2011 6:47 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
It wasn't a legit request
Otherwise I would have said please, duh
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
Better yet
“fuck me running”
Mila "Sweet Lips" Kunis, as stated by Scarlett Johansson. I couldn't agree more. Reverse would be true too!!!!
by nocal81(Vincent) on Jul 10, 2011 6:42 PM PDT up reply actions
I have a friend who used to say that.
We’d all wait for about three or four beats, and then start running in circles with our knees high.
by LoneStranger on Jul 10, 2011 9:00 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don't know why
But that is hilarious
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
It was very much something Python-esque.
by LoneStranger on Jul 10, 2011 10:40 PM PDT up reply actions
TWSS
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
As noted by another buddy
Rickey Henderson led off the All-Star celebrity softball game with a home run. Some things never change.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Sign him NOW
Mila "Sweet Lips" Kunis, as stated by Scarlett Johansson. I couldn't agree more. Reverse would be true too!!!!
by nocal81(Vincent) on Jul 10, 2011 6:43 PM PDT up reply actions
With that HR he'd be, what... 3rd on the team?
A hot dog at the ballgame beats roast beef at the Ritz.
~Humphrey Bogart
by UncleLeo on Jul 10, 2011 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions 5 recs
rec'ed
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
by HUNGRY HUNTER on Jul 10, 2011 9:16 PM PDT up reply actions
So awesome.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Warning: Black helicopter-esque conspiracy theory follows...
…Billy Beane is conspiring with Lew Wolff to make the team totally suck and drive away fans to prove to Commissioner Bud that Oakland is nonviable so that San Jose will be approved.
Fatal flaw in this theory: Commissioner Bud is a moron.
A hot dog at the ballgame beats roast beef at the Ritz.
~Humphrey Bogart
Other fatal flaw: It makes absolutely no sense.
You don’t need the team to suck to show that fans don’t come to Oakland under a myriad of situations, nor do you need a rocket scientist to conclude you’d draw better and make more money in a place with higher population, a new stadium, and a bigger corporate base.
“We want to move the team to San Jose.”
“Well that’s totally fine, or rather it would be if the team were 20 games under .500. But they’re only 12 games under, so no.”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
other fatal flaw
Buds says yes Oakland is no longer financially viable… Neither is “team X” lets just contract the two and then have 2 leagues with the same number of teams..
It is just as outlandish of a idea as saying this is plot to suck on purpose…
JD’s like, "you want some f*&#ing pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, b*#&hes!"- RCCook
LSB: "Oh s#*t, JD. You crazy!"
I should point out...
…that while I believe it is very possible that Wolff is purposely sabotaging Oakland in the form of poor marketing to try and leverage getting San Jose, I do not actually believe for a second that he and/or they are sabotaging the team on the field for the same reason. I was being semi-facetious. Shoot, if anything, they’d want a team timed to be good at the opening of a new park, similar to what Cleveland experienced when Jacobs Field opened.
A hot dog at the ballgame beats roast beef at the Ritz.
~Humphrey Bogart
The other reason that now is a great time to rebuild,
is that Texas is not only the top team in the division, they also have 4 of the top 50 mid-season prospects. They won’t be getting worse any time soon.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
according ot the Top 50 chat
would of had 2 more if Olt and Ramirez did not have to go onto the DL right before the list came out
JD’s like, "you want some f*&#ing pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, b*#&hes!"- RCCook
LSB: "Oh s#*t, JD. You crazy!"
anybody know why jermaine mitchell is suddenly only a DH? even at AA, he was playing DH almost exclusively for his last games there.
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
stm,
I want to apologize to you, LC, dan, mikev, and others for my obstinacy the other day. I had no call to speak to you guys that way. It isn’t usually in my nature to speak that way. Sorry, guys.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
don't even remember it. Not a big deal
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Aw, that whole "Kouz" issue
There was no call for me to get that involved in it. Really didn’t matter in the whole scheme of things.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
hahaha...whatever dude. that was a good convo by my standard. better than a lot of the nonsense that goes on here
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
Yeah, you guys couldn't see me getting heated over it.
I had just talked to the Dr that day, and not happy over the "knee replacement " prospect.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
well, i'm sorry about the knee but you don't need to apologize about anything. it does confirm that you're a good guy that it bothered you.
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
Thanks for understanding, guys.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
Your knee is NOT replacement level.
Seriously, I looked up the stats.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 10, 2011 7:42 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I need to take up drag racing.
It hurts like hell whenever I turn to change directions.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
;-(
Luckily, changing directions is overrated.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Like the odds of the A's offense changing directions?
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
i don't think wearing high heels and a dress would be easier on your knee
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
hehehe
That would cut down on the parties I would have to throw. ANd the bikini swim dates.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
uh-hhh...
I think I’ll just replace the knee. I really didn’t want to do it at 52 years of age, but I did get 22 years out of the arthroscopic surgery. That’s a pretty good return, right?
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
I'll say goodnight to you, stm.
and to everyone on AN as well. see you guys on Friday.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
The start of the second half,...
ANd our resurgence back to greatness! Life springs hope eternal!
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
ah, i thought i missed a tailgate announcement or something.
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
Eh. No worries. It's just banter on the intertoobnets.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
I hope the Mrs takes it this well.
When I told her that I would probably get the surgery next year, she told me I WILL get it this winter. She was tired of my moodiness.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
moneyball!
It’s “Moneyball” didn’t you read the book?
If batting average is overvalued, you get on-base-percentage, if on-base-percentage is overvalued you get slugging percentage. If slugging percentage is overvalued you get fielding. If fielding is overvalued, you go out and get guys who hit for a low average, don’t walk, have no power, and have no idea how to use a baseball glove.
Thanks Mr Bean!
"e" is currently overvalued, moran.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
However, if we could get Sean Bean to be GM,...
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
No one would trade with us!
He’s too devious looking
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
Damn, it was funny till you spelled his name wrong.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
quote from grant green following the futures game...
Green doubled in the eighth off the 25-foot wall in center, the deepest part of the ballpark.
“That wall is huge,” he said. “They ought to lower that thing, make me feel good about myself.”
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
Something really weird and random
After all this time, for some strange reason I thought Grant Green was black. So then I was wondering, who the hell is this white guy wearing an A’s hat?
Anyway, good job Grant.
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
I assumed he was green.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
(rimshot)
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
I thought the same thing for a long time,
until one day I saw a picture and went, “huh?”
Probably because the jazz musician with the same name is black.
I’ve noticed over the years that I’m far more likely to imagine a player is black and he turns out white than vice versa. Not sure why.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
REGGIE WILLITS!
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Whatchu talkin' about Willits?!?!
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 11, 2011 7:54 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes!
Did I mention that, or was I not the only one?
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
No, that doesn't sound like a white guy name
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Joba Chamberlain
also threw me off.
"If you wrote something for which someone sent you a check, if you cashed the check and it didn't bounce, and if you then paid the light bill with the money, I consider you talented." —Stephen King
I was sure he was an Ewok.
I also happen to think I was right.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Ewok, not Hutt?
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Maybe a little of both
His parents slept around more than occasionally.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
The Reggie Cleveland All-Stars
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 11, 2011 8:12 AM PDT up reply actions
Jerry Sands
i was shocked
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
http://www.domingobeisbol.com/
Hah I love the quote.
What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.
And he already told Jane Lee before the game that he knows he's not going to be a 20-homer guy in Oakland so he's fine hitting a bunch of doubles
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Aww...It's so cute when they think they'll still hit when they get to Oakland!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 10, 2011 8:22 PM PDT up reply actions 5 recs
What a surprise
BSPN highlights are all about a guy going 0-3 with a K rather than show anything from the MVP of the game.
Depressing Times.
It kills me that the Giants have five guys in the All-Star game, are riding high in first place with nightly sell-outs in a beautiful park as defending champs.
Meanwhile the A’s are in last, 12 games back, with zero players on the BA Top 50 mid-season prospect list.
I don’t think the A’s will make the playoffs for the next 4 years, minimum.
I’m thinking it’s time to deal Gio. He has four years of service after this year, but he’ll be a Super Two and go to arbitration all four times. His trade value will never be higher – he is healthy, pitching well, and cheap for the last time in his career. The Yankees covet a top-of-the-rotation lefty.
I’m thinking it’s time for a Haren 6-for-2 trade.
I would be willing to trade Gio and a reliever to the Yankees for Montero, Betances, Banuelos, Gary Sanchez, and two out of these three RHP’s: Warren/Stoneburner/Phelps.
I don’t Gio will be around when the A’s are a playoff team. That’s why I’m very willing to trade him away for some guys who will be. I also think it will be harder/more expensive to sign Gio to an extension than it was Anderson and Cahill, and therefore I’d rather trade him.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 10, 2011 7:53 PM PDT reply actions
I doubt you'd get both Montero and Betances for Gio
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 10, 2011 7:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Isn't Montero widely considered to be a future DH?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
That seems to be what I've read...
But it also worries me that he is repeating AAA this year and his OPS is .760 and his slugging has dropped 100 points from last year. However his stats from last year as a 20 YO in AAA were pretty impressive, so who knows.
What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.
Montero might be suffering from Daric Barton AAA Sulking Syndrome, though.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 10, 2011 8:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Ah, DBSS rears its ugly head again.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
hahahaha
"I think what baseball projects, and what classical music needs, is the sense that one goes to a live event not to experience greatness, but to experience the possibility of greatness.... Not every game is great but what we go for is the chance that this particular game might be.' —David Lang
by King Richard on Jul 11, 2011 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions
why will it be harder to sign gio to an extension than cahill and anderson?
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
Pitching better at this point then they were when they received extensions, I guess?
Or his stock is higher?
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
Apropos of nothing in particular,
has there been any word on Braden to suggest his future? Like, “start of 2012,” or “will never pitch again”?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
At the Ports game, I heard him mention he'll be back next year.
He sounded sure of it.
If you'll excuse me, all of you, I'm going to go tearily spill my heart out to my only friend, the water heater. --danmerqury
is that good or bad? Cust had more HR than 2B also
by asfansince1989 on Jul 11, 2011 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Jason Werth
On a positive note, at least we didn’t sign Jason Werth to a $175 million contract considering he’s hitting .214. Ouch!
It is desperate times when you think Barton had 2 bad years and one great because I sure didn’t see any “great” seasons by Barton in terms of 1st baseman comparisons.
By all objective measures he was legitimately very, very good in 2010
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
2010 was an exceptionally good year for Barton
This isn’t really questionable.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
the rest of the first baseman in the majors.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
HE DOESN'T HIT DINGERZ
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
DURRRR DURRR DURRRR
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
lol
What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.
hahaha
"I think what baseball projects, and what classical music needs, is the sense that one goes to a live event not to experience greatness, but to experience the possibility of greatness.... Not every game is great but what we go for is the chance that this particular game might be.' —David Lang
by King Richard on Jul 11, 2011 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions
The A's will make the playoffs next year if...
1. They continue to spend money on pitching. We know free agent hitters will avoid Oakland but pitchers looking for a one year deal should be interested.
2. Weeks, Sizemore, Suzuki, Pennington and one of these three (Carter, Taylor, Cardenes) give them at least average MLB production from their postions.
3. They trade for a decent hitter who doesn’t forget how to hit or they resign Willingham or Dejesus and he remembers how to hit.
4. They avoid significant injuries.
4. No one else in the division wins more than 90 games
Man, what happened to us having one of the best farm teams consistently every year?
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jul 10, 2011 8:35 PM PDT reply actions
WE PRODUCE THE BEST PRIESTS!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
ahaha Desme
My mannerism a prism/ And it should shine
Light it if you would/ Be so kind, right now'd
Be A' Good Time
by DaRubiesSLOKingsA's on Jul 10, 2011 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Don't feel bad, we aren't the first to get fucked by a priest
A Kouzmanoff for the rest of us!
by OptimistPrime on Jul 11, 2011 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
Oh, you DI'INT!!!!!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I was an altarboy
I am qualified to make this statement
A Kouzmanoff for the rest of us!
by OptimistPrime on Jul 11, 2011 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions
That explains a lot
A Kouzmanoff for the rest of us!
by OptimistPrime on Jul 11, 2011 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions
I have candy if you want to come over.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
what kind?
A Kouzmanoff for the rest of us!
by OptimistPrime on Jul 11, 2011 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions
Sheesh! I am still falling for that one!
A Kouzmanoff for the rest of us!
by OptimistPrime on Jul 11, 2011 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions
Couple things.
First off, we graduated a ton of talent. Anderson and Cahill were two of the best pitching prospects in all of the minors. Gio was up there as well. And secondly, last year basically every single prospect got hurt or sucked. All of them. It was ridiculous.
The consistent pattern with hitters over so many years now
leads me to believe there is a very real problem in the area of “player development”.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
remember when we had hitters like javier herrera, richie robnett and kevin mellilo? sigh...
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
suslu reported that on june 24...so he should be active or close. at least it was his wrist this time and not his knees
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
Out of morbid curiosity
Anyone know if it is possible to remove cartilage from ears and replace other cartilage? I doubt it, but think about it – would you sacrifice an ear, or both, to save your knee? Crazy Frankenstein stuff
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
Doesn't work.
There are different types of cartilage and they can’t easily replace each other.
Degradation of articular cartilage is the essence of arthritis, which millions of people suffer from, so you can bet that there is tons of research on articular cartilage repair. If something could be transplanted from a nose or ear, no doubt it would be a well-developed procedure by now.
There are some procedures involving autografts but they come from other bones, not noses or ears.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
You don't remember the famous attempt at Johnny Tom surgery?
Poor Johnny.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Also Cunningham and Mazzaro were considered high prospects.
But if you look at Sickels list of the A’s top prospects of 2009, 5 of the top 7 are with the A’s in the majors. Cunningham and Cardenas are the other two.
is cunningham's defense so bad that the padres can't use his bat? he's crushing it at aaa again
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
It's not THAT bad.
The Padres just scored 1 run in 3 games this weekend.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Also it stinks that this team is in the same position as the 49ers (and arguably the Raiders). While the A’s made these deals trying to rebuild, the 49ers have merely drafted high every season since 2003, and neither the draft picks nor free agent signings have done much.
A truly sad state of Bay Area sports for the past 4-5 years or so
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jul 10, 2011 8:38 PM PDT reply actions
Has anyone heard (or seen in person)
how Choice is thought to be doing in CF?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I saw choice play in college and he was great in the outfield
KId is a great athletic and really didnt get to use his speed much on basepath due to the team he was on
I think one thing that continues to never be brought up in these arguments...
is that the front office has to somehow put butts in the seats at the O.co. Trading Cahill, Gio, and the other mini-stars (Coco, DDJ…) and bringing up AAA guys means even more no names on the field every night. We’re barely pushing 8000 a game at home and many won’t come out if they can’t identify anyone on the field at all. Why do you think Matsui was signed when many here argued that Cust had more upside (even though I was never a Cust fan, the stats made sense)? To fill seats. There has to be at least some star power on the team or attendance will only get worse. Who knows what that will mean for our Omaha Athletics.
I do think Cahill is a goner, however, in a trade. not sure who else, but with Moscoso looking so good and that other guy (G something?) it seems like we could have 5 good starters through the rest of the year even without him.
This all makes me sad.I miss Eric Plunk
godfrey?
moscoso is living on borrowed time as a starter. he’s a flyball pitcher that hasn’t given up many home runs. i assume he will start giving up bombs at some point
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
This sounds similar to the knock on Cahill a year or two ago.
It was just a matter of time before those outs became hits.
that said, dude's had two straight legit starts
And with Ross getting lit in rehab, it isn’t the worst thing to give Moscoso a few more starts.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 11, 2011 7:46 AM PDT up reply actions
Especially when you consider that flyballs don't always translate into HRs in Oakland.
Oh, wait. That only pertains to our hitters.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
Well, we just have no HR hitters
When the Rangers come to town, they hit HR too because they have legit power hitters
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 11, 2011 7:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Thanks, you just ruined my failed attempt at a joke.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
What lineups has Moscoso faced?
I don’t remember the others, but the last game against the Mariners featured possibly the worst starting lineup I’ve ever seen in a game (and we’ve seen some pretty terrible ones from the A’s). Their current slash lines as of today:
270 / 317 / 324 – Ichiro
252 / 312 / 309 – Brendan Ryan
259 / 308 / 395 – Adam Kennedy
229 / 327 / 418 – Justin Smoak
304 / 364 / 536 – Dustin Ackley
199 / 250 / 376 – Carlos Peguero
187 / 218 / 227 – Franklin Gutierrez
217 / 217 / 435 – Josh Bard
183 / 231 / 244 – Chone Figgins
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
He shut out the Phillies in PHI for 7 IP.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Yeah, it was sort of a getaway day lineup
But, still has gotten better. I’m curious how he’ll do next outing.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 11, 2011 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions
What the hell happened to Guttierez? Hurt? SSS?
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Coming back from severe stomach gastritis
Probably weak and still not 100% (since they don’t really know what’s going on).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Appleby's?
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Cindi's "Omigod this is soooooo much better than Carri's!!!!" potato salad.
It wasn’t.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Valley Fever
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 11, 2011 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions
The Mariners have two players with OPS over 800.
One of them is a rookie who has played in only 20 games. The other is a starting pitcher who hit a single and a double in six at-bats.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Lonely old Gio...
Gio looks very lonely on the A’s homepage.
“Your Oakland A’s All Star”. As if we only are allotted 1.
I miss Eric Plunk
having not read through all the comments
and admittedly not read the post as throughly as I could’ve, I have to disagree with the doom and gloom perspective you provide Nico. Those mid-round picks you cite are part of the rebuilding process and all need to be seen through before we can judge the past few years of rebuilding. The pitching part of the rebuilding process has been ultra successful but we haven’t seen the fruits of the hitting rebuild and hopefully we will soon. As for this year, it’s certainly been disappointing but I don’t think anybody could’ve expected so many guys to perform below expectations. It’s really something I haven’t seen since watching the A’s. Dejesus, Barton, Ellis, Kouzmanoff, Matsui, Suzuki, etc. I can’t even fault Billy for that because how could he know all these guys would so woefully fail to achieve their career averages save for Barton who didn’t have much of a baseline to begin with. It’s an anomaly that I hope the A’s won’t have to suffer from ever again. Have faith A’s fans, the offense is worse than terrible and constantly losing games like today’s is can be draining to the point of feeling like giving up on this team. I’m not saying we should be expecting a second half comeback, but I have a hard time thinking a team with the best pitching staff in the league is too far away from mattering again.
What did i tell you...didn't I say they would win? Yeah that's right I did didn't ? Wait.. what? They LOST?!?!?
So...
Those mid-round picks you cite are part of the rebuilding process
No, they’re not…as explained in the post…which you say you didn’t really bother to read carefully…So…yeah.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
i don't agree with your reasoning
What did i tell you...didn't I say they would win? Yeah that's right I did didn't ? Wait.. what? They LOST?!?!?
whether you draft high or low
you’re trying to build for your future
What did i tell you...didn't I say they would win? Yeah that's right I did didn't ? Wait.. what? They LOST?!?!?
call it rebuilding or what not
it’s important to hit on those first round picks and the first few rounds in general so you have something just in case you lose a few guys through free agency or through trade which in the case of the A’s is something that will probably happen constantly.
What did i tell you...didn't I say they would win? Yeah that's right I did didn't ? Wait.. what? They LOST?!?!?
The point is that even if you aren't rebuilding, you will still draft somewhere.
Had the A’s never dealt Haren or Swisher or Blanton, they still would have had a “13th pick” and a “16th pick” and they’d still have these guys they drafted. That’s not reasoning, that’s just a fact.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
yes but I believe that drafting is just as important as anything
else you do during a rebuilding process. You may make trades or sign certain guys because you’re in the rebuilding mode, but you need to draft in order to really build that future foundation. You say that a team drafts every year but when do people care who you’ve drafted and what’s in your minor league system? When you need to restock at the ML level and that happens when you’re trying to rebuild.
What did i tell you...didn't I say they would win? Yeah that's right I did didn't ? Wait.. what? They LOST?!?!?
This entire comment has nothing to do with anything I'm saying.
If you want to engage me in conversation, read the post and read my comments, don’t just “say stuff you think to be true”. I fully agree with your first sentence, yet it not relevant to my point.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
in response to your comment about haren and swisher
we may not have those potential picks but we did have picks around #10 which we got because we had losing records in 2007,08, and 09. You make not think that’s great positioning in the draft but when we were winning, we drafted in the 20’s so I would consider those fairly decent. But I consider every draft pick important in the first few rounds because they all pertain to building for the future.
What did i tell you...didn't I say they would win? Yeah that's right I did didn't ? Wait.. what? They LOST?!?!?
and the first few rounds is when you can really make an impact
What did i tell you...didn't I say they would win? Yeah that's right I did didn't ? Wait.. what? They LOST?!?!?
who we drafted?
What did i tell you...didn't I say they would win? Yeah that's right I did didn't ? Wait.. what? They LOST?!?!?
I'm not a scout so I can't say what will be with grey and the others
but, and I know this sucks, we’re going to have to wait and see what they do. I’m not being sarcastic, it really does suck to wait and see but we have to. Even the scouts and billy have to do the same. Nobody knows what’s going to happen but these guys get paid major bucks to make the decisions and still trust Billy and his team to make the right decision more times than not.
What did i tell you...didn't I say they would win? Yeah that's right I did didn't ? Wait.. what? They LOST?!?!?
a lot of the gloom and doom around here and in nico's post is that our drafting and our player development has been terrible. i suspect this was another weak draft by our team
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
I can't suspect anything, I don't know enough about it to say
but I will add that I heard that this was a fairly deep draft talent pool so I might not be as worried that they missed in this draft compared to others
What did i tell you...didn't I say they would win? Yeah that's right I did didn't ? Wait.. what? They LOST?!?!?
this team has to draft incredibly well in every draft. a lot of the guys we drafted left experts/draft watchers scratching their heads
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
That used to be how the A's drafted during the early years of the Moneyball era
Draft guys that made people say, WTF? It worked out then. Maybe it’ll work out now? I doubt it, but we gotta have some kinda hope…
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
So picky
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
it's not all you have in all probability, but it's easier to believe hope is all you have
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
Hope Solo? Yesplz.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Then you clearly ignored the "Abandon all hope, ye who enter here" sign at the Coliseum gates
Get out the time-fracture wickets, Hobbes! We're gonna play Calvinball!
They are part of it...an inherent part of the rebuilding is supplement the talent acquired in trades with draft picks
However, I think the bigger flaw in the post is only examining the hitting. It just doesn’t make sense to me, if we are analyzing a process.
Gio and FDLS and Anderson are all clearly part of that process (even if we are excluding draft picks).
by Billy Frijoles on Jul 11, 2011 5:35 PM PDT up reply actions
I acknowledge the pitching and even mention those three by name
This post is about how many positions have been unattended to (or unsuccessfully attended to). Pitching is not one of them, thankfully.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I agree that current management failed over the last five years
But a lot of what looks like bad decision making in hindsight is bad luck, just like a lot of “brilliant” moves early in Beane’s career were just getting extremely lucky. Tim Hudson, for example, was a sixth round pick. He’s going to end up a near Hall of Famer. Hatteberg miraculously created a career for himself at the age of 32. Longshots came in for Beane early. Plus he had some high draft picks to work with like Mulder and Chavez. He also had some older successful longshots that he inherited like Tejada and Giambi.
For me, Beane is an average GM. He got hot early. He’s cold now. Overall, he’s a .500 kind of decision maker. He can’t make up for his mistakes like Sabean and spend a ton of money. And bad luck – like Chavez, a potential HOF’er, having his back blow out at the age of 28 – doesn’t help matters.
Can Beane succeed in rebuilding this franchise into a playoff contender in the next few years? I don’t think so. But I think he’s capable of turning it into a .500 kind of club. As they say in Sicily, the sun don’t shine on a dog’s ass all day long. Beane already has had his time in the sun.
So they should make half a movie about him.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
They are making a movie sort of about Michael Lewis' book
which was sort of about Billy Beane, but was mostly very entertaining b.s. That’s been Michael Lewis’ talent, taking real life material and adding a lot of sort of believable baloney to make a good story. He does it in book after book. It all began with Liar’s Poker, which was sort of about Wall Street and was mostly very entertaining b.s. They ought to put his books in the fiction section of the bookstore. They are a lot of fun to read just so long as you know you’re not reading factual material.
two people need to be traded
beane and wolf. they are not committed to winning. they are committed to running strictly as a business. only way to win is with spending money one some decent players and i do not think they will do that.
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
That would be a shame, because I think they're running a business about as well
as they’re running a team. Any profits they’re making, and any fans they’re keeping, are just what anyone could do by virtue of already having a big league team. It’s among the worst promoted/tended to products around.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
revenue sharing with no salary cap…. I think this allows them to run the team into the ground or not take on big contracts and still make a good profit.
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
by HUNGRY HUNTER on Jul 10, 2011 9:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Making a profit doesn't mean you're taking the money and spending it on hookers and blow.
Perhaps they’re using it for a down payment on a new stadium?
by LoneStranger on Jul 10, 2011 9:44 PM PDT up reply actions
I think they already have money for that and you can never have enough of blow and hookers. lol
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
by HUNGRY HUNTER on Jul 10, 2011 9:48 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm fairly certain they don't have $500m sitting around.
Of course, I don’t know for certain. But people who have money don’t make more of it by letting it sit under the mattress.
by LoneStranger on Jul 10, 2011 9:51 PM PDT up reply actions
well if he has 4 more bank accounts like this one where he left an atm receipt behind
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/06/30/100-million-atm-receipt_n_887993.html
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
by HUNGRY HUNTER on Jul 10, 2011 10:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Wow. That's dumb, whoever that guy is.
by LoneStranger on Jul 10, 2011 10:07 PM PDT up reply actions
that person probably has many many many times that amount.
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
by HUNGRY HUNTER on Jul 10, 2011 10:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Fuck the new stadium.
I want hookers and blow.
Maybe that will bring fans back to the Coliseum again. Players, too.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
by iglew on Jul 11, 2011 12:48 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yes, but it would allow anyone to do so.
By existing as owner and GM Wolff and Beane can do this. That’s not running a business well, it’s just running a business that if you do nothing will give you some profit.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Happy to see there are others that want Beane and Wolff gone
This team has been a joke for way too long.
it would be nice if they traded the
radio and tv announcers too. even that fill in stiglich is excessively lame. i had to turn off the game last week and we only down 2 because i simply couldn’t bear to listen to him any longer
by heartstopper on Jul 11, 2011 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions
You mean Bitker?
Stiglich is a writer. I don’t think he does radio.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Better keep emailing Bud Selig.
Nothing it going to change until we get a shovel in the ground somewhere for a new stadium.
tottally agree
it worked for the giant losers.
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
by HUNGRY HUNTER on Jul 10, 2011 9:44 PM PDT up reply actions
How many damn really good home-grown players or other player we really developed have we lost in the past decade or so?
Zito, Mulder, Hudson, CarGo and Street for Holliday, Tejada, Swisher, Giambi, Haren…
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jul 10, 2011 10:16 PM PDT reply actions
In all fairness, the only bad transactions were trading Hudson to Atlanta, and CarGo for Holliday. However, let’s not act like the A’s traded an absolute superstar in CarGo. Coors Field inflates his numbers quite a bit… just check his home and road splits. Anyways, A’s got Haren in return for Mulder, Gio, FDLS + Swingles in return for Swisher, and a pretty nice package (Brett Anderson, Chris Carter, CarGo, etc.,) in return for Haren.
As for Zito, Tejada, and Giambi, well… they all went on to sign ridiculous contracts 
FREE IAN KROL NAO.
Tejada went to the Orioles and made about as much as Kendall did with the A's
We made a conscious choice to spend money on Kendall, Crosby and Kotsay instead of Tejada, Hernandez and Long.
Kendall — 2.7 years, 4.8 WAR, $17M of value, $30M salary: 13M Surplus Value 6 years, 8.3 WAR, $28M of value, $13M salary: $15M Surplus Value
Crosby -
Kotsay — 4 years, 4.5 WAR, $14M of value, $26M salary: -$12M Surplus Value
Total A’s: -10M Surplus Value on $59M Salary over 12.7 years
Tejada — 6 years, 25.6 WAR, $94M of value, $72M salary: $22M Surplus Value
Hernandez — 2 years, 6 WAR, $19M of value, $7M salary: $12M Surplus Value
Long — 2 years, 1.6 WAR, $5M of value, $8M salary: -$3M Surplus Value
Total ex-A’s: $29M Surplus Value on $87M salary over 10 years
The choice to go with the Kendall, Kotsay and Crosby cost the A’s about $40M in Surplus Value, and about 1.5 Wins per year over 10 years.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 6:02 AM PDT up reply actions
mulder lasted not much more than a
season and a half before blowing out his arm. that was a good trade as it worked out
by heartstopper on Jul 11, 2011 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions
so how to divorce?
I often thought over the past 3 years of how to divorce my irrational fascination with the A’s.
It is true, like Beane is quoted as saying, that fans only worship the “laundry” (named players)? I thought I was following the back-story, the smart GM with the low payroll, fighting the underdog’s fight. Well, now we have a super-wealthy ownership group, owners/general managers who are more interested in real estate development than team development, and no real team icons/legends to follow (I’m discarding Matsui, as he hasn’t been the A’s icon).
What to do, what to do? Alternative teams – I tried that. But I kept peaking back at the A’s stats, and soon found my relationship rekindled after a typical teAse run 2 years ago. Alternative sports – umm, hockey isn’t there for me. Basketball and football are “locked out”. I guess soccer is the way to go then? How convenient that our ownership group also owns a soccer club here in San Jose…
Well, I’ve given the A’s all of $0 this season in ticket sales, since I’m out of the area. I guess I’ve given their website a few eyeballs, however much revenue that helps them bring in. I’m in the bay area quite a bit, but would never go out of my way to see the A’s, in their current situation, in their current ballpark. Sorry, it’s just not a draw.
Hey, Chavez is injured again. Had a nice statline prior to that.
Hey, Haren is about to give us a few more L’s this season.
Hey, Beltre is an overpriced 800 ops’ing player in a hitter’s park. Glad we didn’t pay for that.
by rollierollieOxenfree on Jul 10, 2011 11:02 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Sorry to hear that.
I guess we’ll see you when they’re winning.
Cheers,
True fan.
by asyouwish33 on Jul 10, 2011 11:39 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
in another 5 years?
try being a Cubs fan if you’re looking for worshipping a perennial heart-breaker.
by rollierollieOxenfree on Jul 11, 2011 5:12 PM PDT up reply actions
If that happens to the A's
so be it. It would be torture, but I’d still be here.
because the rebuild hasnt paid off yet, i still think we can be good. give carter some more time, i still believe he will find it. having jemile at 2nd is exciting. pennington continues to show improvement. ive been liking sizemore at 3rd. i dont know if this has already been looked into, but is moving grant green to 3rd a legit possibility. i know he is still at AA, but its encouraging that he was the futures game mvp today. and our OF has quite a bit of depth.
too much optimism? i hope not.
at least the a’s are still in oakland for now.
Funny. I would have expected an owner to have more capital.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
hm. i’m at a serious crossroads: do some of the made-the-account-today hacks copy my style to put me down, is it mere coincidence, or is it more of a there but for the grace of god typeset i?
It's not a coincidence.
It’s what happens when you adopt as your personal style one that screams out “ignorant noob”.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I think the answer to your final question, Nico,
— ie, “How did the A’s fail at this so completely?” — lies in the assumption the underlies both your post and most of the comments. There seems to be universal agreement among A’s fans, both sabermetrically inclined and traditional, that there is a certain amount of time required to do a proper “rebuild”. That is, you have to suck for X years in order to be good again (with X varying depending on your budget). But since the A’s have now sucked for five years and still aren’t any better, everyone concludes that they must have done it wrong. Thus we get all the complaints about how Beane hasn’t committed to a real rebuild, and if only he had we would be good by now.
I don’t think it works that way. To say that a low-budget team requires four years of sucking to be a good team again is sort of like saying that a .250 hitter requires three at-bats of striking out in order to get a hit again. Yes, that’s how it works out on average, but it’s a function of the probability of an attempted rebuild working out. It’s not as if those extra years of sucking actually contribute toward making the team better in any way.
People like to point to Tampa Bay and say, “See, that’s how it’s done. They were terrible for ten years and then they became great.” Sure they did, but the one did not cause the other. They weren’t being terrible on purpose as an investment in the future. They tried and whiffed, tried and whiffed, tried and whiffed, tried and whiffed, and then one year they tried again and that time it actually came together for them.
I’m not saying there’s no difference between smart rebuilding and stupid rebuilding. Of course there is. But to me this notion of the A’s still being bad now because they didn’t commit to a rebuild reeks of rationalization or mythology. We want to believe that penance will bring on redemption. We embrace the idea of higher draft position because it justifies our desired belief that years of want will somehow nourish years of plenty.
I don’t think it works that way. I think you always try to make your team better, and sometimes you succeed and sometimes you fail. For several years the A’s managed to rebuild a fresh new team without any down years at all. Now recently we’ve had down years with nothing to show for it. That’s how it works.
We are in a five-year rebuild slump, and it sucks, but I don’t think it’s because we haven’t been sufficiently committed to the rebuild. I think it’s because we’ve tried and failed. And then tried and failed again. And again. The conclusion I draw from this is not that we should therefore suck on purpose for a few years in order to get our rebuild mojo back. I think we should continue to try to get better, continue to try to do it intelligently, and one of these times it will actually work out.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
by iglew on Jul 11, 2011 1:40 AM PDT reply actions 13 recs
best comment of the entire thread, oh frosty one
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 11, 2011 7:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Being terrible on purpose and committing to a rebuild are different things
Those saying that the club hasn’t truly committed to a rebuild, I don’t think, are in turn saying “Hey, lets suck an awful lot on purpose so we can draft high”, at least I’m not.
For me, it’s about the rosters spots, opportunities and in some cases players lost because of an annual, misguided desire to “compete now”. When you’re truly focusing on re-establishing a core of talent, with a focus on a strong run of success a couple of years down the road (how I would define a rebuild) every one year rent a player, every prospect traded for a guy who doesn’t stay, every mid-season sell off is an unneeded hurdle in that process.
On one hand, Beane trades away Blanton, Haren and Swisher for buddles of prospects because it would seem the club isn’t going to compete for the foreseeable future. These are good, logical rebuild type moves. Mixing those though with the Holliday deal, this years corner outfielders when they aren’t locked up, and the annual “can we catch lightning in a bottle again with an aged slugger” (or in the case of 2009, 2 of them) thing leaves you with a team that’s in a weird state of limbo.
They’re rebuilding, while also trying to contend, and ultimately failing miserably at both, and that is what’s making them so hard to watch right now. They are a team with no identity heading in no logical direction.
I can handle a terrible team if it’s showing signs of a solid future.
by AsFan72 on Jul 11, 2011 8:34 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
"misguided desire to 'compete now'"
is exactly what I’m talking about. I’m saying the attempts to compete now were perfectly reasonable. Unfortunately they failed, but postponing it and trying the next year instead wouldn’t have been any likelier to succeed.
I’m saying that the team is not in a “weird state of limbo”. The perception of one comes from the idea of a set rebuild cycle, which I’m saying is a false idea built upon large exaggerations of small factors. I think rebuilding while also trying to contend is perfectly feasible, and it is not the combination of the two which is causing the A’s to fail at both.
I think that the rebuilding mythology is less about actually improving the future and more about making fans feel better about having a bad team.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Sure it would have...
If not for the attempts to compete now, we’d not have made the Holliday trade, that already makes the team better. We also don’t waste roster spots and playing time on Giambi, Garciaparra, M. Sweeney, Kennedy, Matsui, Cabrera, etc and we likely also would have cut bait on Chavez and Ellis years ago. Opening up more opportunities for someone else to succeed doesn’t guarantee future success, but it certainly makes it more likely.
Re-building AND competing in this environment is just something I don’t think is feasible. For example, Chris Carter should have been the full-time DH coming out of spring training this year (well, really since he got it going late last season). His momentum has been halted by the teams attempt this year to compete, one piece of which is the signing of Matsui. You have an aged veteran blocking the progression of a possible piece of the future solely because there was a thought they could challenge for the West this year. Carter lost 3 months of MLB level at-bats (and still only gets them intermittently) because of the roster spot taken by Hideki Matsui. The same applies to Weeks and anyone else in the minors that’s deserved a look at the MLB level.
Making moves to compete, which likely aren’t going to help you compete anyone, at the cost of either experience for players, or the loss of the player totally, is misguided.
I think your last sentence is backwards, if anything, I think a lot of the poor deals made in recent years are a result of Billy (or Forst, or Ownership) trying to make fans feel better about their team.
“You guys think we’re not trying, look, you’ve heard of this guy, and we signed him”, whether it was the most beneficial move for the club or not.
Carter was also out of the lineup due to injury.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions
Agreed. With our small market team and lack of high picks
we’re not rebuilding. That’s the Warriors mentality. Be good enough to get the heat off your back, but don’t actively invest into the roster to make us good enough. I think Billy and Co. try harder, but without the results words and intents mean absolutely zilch.
They need to suck hard like it was 1997 or something. Just do it cause there’s no hope to compete this year and in the next couple years.
"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."
"He's chicken curry right now. He'll become beef curry a little later on."
-Keith Smart
"You guys think we’re not trying, look, you’ve heard of this guy, and we signed him", whether it was the most beneficial move for the club or not.
Yep, the definition of a Band-Aid move to stop the gushing wound.
"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."
"He's chicken curry right now. He'll become beef curry a little later on."
-Keith Smart
The counter-argument would be:
Eric Chavez was the 10th overall pick.
Mark Mulder was the 2nd overall pick.
Barry Zito was the 9th overall pick.
Part of the backbone of the 2000-2004 run was sucking in the late 90s. Sucking bad enough to draft within the top 10. There is a difference in talent between drafting top 10 and drafting at No. 20ish overall.
The A’s traded for Holliday before the 2009 season. They finished 75-87 that year. That gave them the 10th overall pick in the 2010 draft, who became Michael Choice, who is not currently considered one of the top 50 prospects in the game.
Now, let’s revise the past in a way that would be very favorable to the present:
*The A’s do not trade for Holliday before the 2009 season. They keep CarGo in AAA that year.
*Knowing that they will not contend in ‘09, they leave Anderson and Cahill in AAA, preserving a year of their service time, making them better trade assets, cheaper in the long term, etc.
*They fill out the holes in the major league roster with replacement-level dreck.
*That replacement-level dreck leads to their highest draft pick since Mulder. In 2009, the Nationals finished with 103 losses, the Pirates with 99, and the Royals with 97, so those would’ve been the “marks to beat.”
*They land a top-3 overall pick that year: Bryce Harper(!), Jameson Taillon, or Manny Machado.
So, to me, that would have been the beginnings of a complete rebuild.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 11, 2011 8:36 AM PDT up reply actions
But not all teams that draft high draft well.
A hot dog at the ballgame beats roast beef at the Ritz.
~Humphrey Bogart
by UncleLeo on Jul 11, 2011 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
The teams that draft high and don't draft well...
Often aren’t taking best player available – they are weaseling out with pre-draft slot agreements.
Career WAR produced from the top 5 slots in the draft is very good. Career WAR when we sort by the highest signing bonuses (which is a great proxy for perceived talent) is also very good.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 11, 2011 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Sometimes this is true...
…the Pirates were a prime example.
A hot dog at the ballgame beats roast beef at the Ritz.
~Humphrey Bogart
No but why piss away the opportunity when we're already getting nothing when they play the game?
"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."
"He's chicken curry right now. He'll become beef curry a little later on."
-Keith Smart
I'm not entirely sure that keeping Gonzalez, Anderson and Cahill in AAA would have cost
the team enough wins to draft Machado. The Orioles lost 98 games that year and the Indians drafted 5th losing 97 and took Pomeranz.
By fWAR in 2009, Holliday had 3 WAR for the A’s, Anderson 3.7 and Cahill 0.6. Even is you forgo all of those you’re still only losing 7 more games. I’m not sure that drafting Matt Harvey or Barrett Loux would have been all that much better than drafting Choice, nor am I sure that they wouldn’t have taken Choice over those guys anyway. On top of that, if Anderson was really as great in AAA as he likely would have been given his good MLB performance, he probably would have been brought up mid year anyway.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions
My intuitive sense is that the total value of draft position
is overrated. Obviously it helps some, but I think it dwindles quickly after the first round, and that first round isn’t nearly enough to explain the difference between a good team and a bad team. I hope to investigate this more scientifically some day, but I’ve already got two big unfinished projects going, so I’m not sure when I’ll get to it.
As for the rest, I’m saying that even if you do the rebuild correctly as you recommend there’s a significant chance it fizzles and the team still does poorly. There’s also a significant chance that the 2009 run at the playoffs exactly as done doesn’t fizzle, Holliday is an all-star, Giambi and Nomar still have something left, Travis Buck has a break-out year, Crosby doesn’t completely suck, etc. In which case it we make the playoffs and roll our dice in the post-season crap shoot.
It’s always a gamble. I don’t feel your Bryce Harper-based plan for 2012 is that much surer than the actual one for 2009. Not enough difference to warrant three years of suck.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
The difference is that we could've had our Bryce Harper or someone of similar ilk.
Right now we have _______.
"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."
"He's chicken curry right now. He'll become beef curry a little later on."
-Keith Smart
Good post.
If I had to venture a guess, I think the frustration most fans feel is that there doesn’t even seem to be a light at the end of the tunnel. I mean, if we at least had some really cool prospects in the lower minors that we could drool over we’d at least feel better. We’d feel like we have something to look forward to. We don’t seem to have even that.
A hot dog at the ballgame beats roast beef at the Ritz.
~Humphrey Bogart
So first of all, great points, well taken.
I would say we failed to be fully committed to the rebuild with the Holliday trade, which was a “don’t stay the course” blunder, but otherwise yes.
My question, in response, posed in the OP, is how five years in we have failed to acquire a “likely solution” at 1B, 2B, SS, or 3B? I’ll accept Taylor as a “likely solution” in the COF that just hasn’t worked out, but players like Cunningham, Sweeney, and Donaldson had little perceived upside and were more believed to be good bets to make it and be “decent” — and filler is exactly what you don’t seek in a rebuild.
Those “good try” failures are few and far between. 5 years IS a long time to fail only with one COF, a DH (Carter), and … who?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Good tries at getting a starting player
C Powell, Suzuki
1B Barton
2B Weeks
SS Green, Pennington
3B Cardenas
LF
CF Gonzalez
RF Choice
DH Carter
Other than Carlos and maybe Vernon I’m not seeing a high-ceiling prospect in the bunch.
They would have needed all of these guys to pan out as 3 WAR players to get a 90+ win team. If half of them panned out and the other half failed, then you’ve probably got around a .500 team. What we have now is something much less than that.
The bad thing to me is that there’s almost no way to get a 100 win team out of those guys even if everything went perfectly.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions
This is my beef
Where were the players who might be great? Gamble on high upside and lose, fine. Keep going for spray hitting 1Bmen and “good at many things but not great at anything” OFers (Cunningham) and you’re not rebuilding so much as “staying mediocre”.
You left out Taylor, Cunningham, and Donaldson btw.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I left out Taylor since we traded Carlos for him
I left out the other 2 because I don’t want to remember them
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions
We acquired players with high ceilings
Some of them have since not reached those ceilings. All these hitters had high ceilings when drafted/acquired:
Barton, Weeks, Green, Gonzalez, Choice, Carter
Barton didn’t develop the expected power. Weeks still has a solid ceiling but is held back by injury concerns. Green still has a relatively high ceiling even if it is as a 2B. I need not comment on Gonzalez. Choice is looking good and is exactly the kind of high risk/high upside player we are all clamoring for. Carter is also high risk/high reward.
As far as prospects go, I think we have an ok track record. We have been better at pitching but not bad overall. You can’t complain about the hitters without acknowledging the pitching. We aren’t going to always do everything well.
Again, our expectations are too high. Aside from the Holliday trade, it is hard to point to outright mistakes the organization has made. And I am still not convinced Gonzalez would OPS above .730 in Oakland.
Which of the guys you mentioned as having "high ceilings" do you think can be an MVP
if everything falls into place for him?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions
I think Choice and Carter can be MVP type candidates
Choice more than Carter. Jose Bautista was a high strikeout guy, who suddenly turned into a monster. I think if Choice can correct the hitch in his swing, make better contact, he has the potential to be a 40 home run guy.
You cannot teach power, especially in the post-PED days. The hit tool may or may not develop, but power is difficult. I also think power is the most important “scouting attribute” for MVP material.
Choice yes, Carter no
It’s hard to be an MVP as a DH unless you’re one of the top 3-4 hitters in the entire league. Carter ain’t that good.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
but... its not unfathomable that CC could stick at 1b for a year or two
Likely? Probably not, but possible. I mean we’re spitballing dream scenarios right now.
Ya it seems a lot less likely now than it did 2 years ago
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions
It even seems less likely now
than it was just before I saw him try get to a ball 5 feet to his right.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
If I can name one we are doing ok
I don’t think we are that far off from other teams. And again, you can’t ignore all our Cy Young candidates in the analysis.
Barton had a 5 WAR season as a 24 year old but you don't think that he had a high ceiling?
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not considering his reverting to suckiness this year, of course.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
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DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
I would actually have to say "no"
He pretty much matched or exceeded any reasonable ceiling you could have had for him, in regards to OBP and defense, in 2010. And his lack of power was always going to keep his ceiling down. A high ceiling 1Bman is Hosmer, Teixeira (with Texas), Votto, etc.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I think he's basically a 2-3 WAR player who had a great year for him.
I also don’t think that 5 WAR is that high of a ceiling. A real “high ceiling” is like 7-10 WAR. Here’s a list of 7+ WAR players since 2000:
Josh Hamilton
Evan Longoria
Ben Zobrist
Albert Pujols
Joey Votto
Carl Crawford
Ryan Zimmerman
Chase Utley
Joe Mauer
Hanley Ramirez
Derek Jeter
Lance Berkman
Carlos Beltran
Chipper Jones
Grady Sizemore
Mark Teixeira
David Wright
Alex Rodriguez
Magglio Ordonez
Curtis Granderson
Matt Holliday
Alfonso Soriano
Andruw Jones
Derrek Lee
Barry Bonds
Scott Rolen
JD Drew
Jim Edmonds
Todd Helton
Ichiro Suzuki
Gary Sheffield
Brett Boone
Marcus Giles
Vladimir Guerrero
Jeff Kent
Brian Giles
Jim Thome
Jason Giambi
Luis Gonzalez
Sammy Sosa
Larry Walker
Rich Aurilia
Shawn Green
Barton in no way has as high a ceiling as the other 1B on this list because of his lack of power, and it’s very hard for a 1B to luck into a Rich Aurilia fluke year because of the massive positional adjustment
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
So you don't think a guy has a high ceiling unless he is MVP caliber.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
He should have the potential to be an MVP if everything goes right for him
If I squint I can see Carlos Gonzalez of Chris Carter getting 7+ WAR if everything goes right for them.
The only way I can see Barton doing that is if everything goes right for him and he adds power.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah
Last year you basically saw the best Barton will probably ever be.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Probably, but he could still be a 3-4 WAR player in his prime if he turns it around
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions
And by a lot
If you consider him probably to be a “.360 OBP +/- .030” hitter, where he peaked in 2010 and valleyed in 2011, he’s really a gap to gap .270/.360/.400 hitter, and while that’s a decent player it’s certainly not a guy with a high ceiling, just a guy who might be really good in a career year both at the plate and in the field.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I would kill for a .270/.360/.400 hitter in the lineup right now with plus defense.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Well, sure, nobody's arguing that Barton can't be useful.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions
a 7 WAR DH? I doubt that very much.
and I think last year was the best season CarGo will ever have as well at 6.6 WAR, and converting from CF to LF is going to hurt his value.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
You can be a 7 WAR DH if you're a great hitter. It's about as hard
as being a 6.5 WAR 1B, no?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions
it would have to be like 60 BRAA or so, I think.
assuming the guy DHs every day and has a 0 defensive value (and we’ll say 0 baserunning as well, so average):
7 war would be 70 RAA, with the 20 run replacement value and -17.5 positional adjustment for DH, you’re looking at 67.5 batting runs to have a 7 WAR DH, so basically a hall of fame caliber hitter.
For the record, Albert Pujols has eclipsed 67.5 BRAA 3 times, and eclipsed 65 BRAA 3 more times. So Pujols at his best would be a 7 WAR DH.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Since 2000, players with more than 67 BRAA
Barry Bonds
Sammy Sosa
Jason Giambi
Luis Gonzalez
Jim Thome
Alex Rodriguez
Albert Pujols
So yeah, it’s really hard
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Which brings me back to doubting that Carter will ever be a 7 WAR dh :)
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Yes you have to squint really hard
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions
great research, WC. Rec'd.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 11, 2011 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions
We have failed to acquire a likely solution
because most guys don’t turn into stars. Your looking at our past five years with hindsight, thinking, “Why didn’t we try someone good, instead of dreck like Pennington, Buck, Baisley, Sulentic, Cardenas, Desme, Cunningham, Hairston, Rosales, Patterson, Fox, Kouzmanoff, DeJesus, Willingham?” Yes, all those guys were busts, but they might not have been. Many of the guys who do turn out good seem just as improbable before they actually do break out and become the guys that make us say, “why didn’t we sign that guy?” or “why did we give up on that guy?”
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I don't think he's saying that. I think he's saying that none of these guys had the potential
to be more than “slightly above average” even at their best.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions
Exactly.
Plus it does NOT take hindsight to know that most of the guys you mentioned weren’t going to be part of anything special. Pretty much Buck and Desme are the exceptions.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I think that would be giving too much credit to
our ability to accurately project upside.
Also, if a bunch of guys are “slightly above average” that’s a good team. Particularly when combined with another guy who is still very good even when he underperforms, like say, Matt Holliday.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
No, it's hard to predict who will hit their upside
It’s not nearly as difficult to predict who has it.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
So basically your complaint is we haven't
put enough of our investment in high-risk, high-reward guys in years other than 2009.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
It's probably one of the things the A's need to do more of in taking chances, yes
Often they try to play it safe too much and pay for it. I know this has come up in the recent past in comparing to teams like the Yankees or Red Sox who can afford to go after proven – and exceptionally good – commodities, but the A’s are in a position where they probably ought to roll the dice more often and hope you come up big. What’s the alternative? More crappy offense?
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I think their strategy has been to get strong pitching and hitting that could
be “good enough” in an above average year with 9 Hattebergs. I don’t think it’s that bad a strategy, except that the pitching is overrated due to the park and the 9 Hatteberg strategy gets you 9 crappy hitters.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Mmm, more or less, I think you're right
What’s especially bad this year is EVERYONE is having a crappy year with the bat.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I'd rather have 9 Polancos than 9 Hattebergs
nevermoor made a great lineup of cheap players who can defend, run the bases and with enough OBP to make a very good team without power.
9 Hattebergs not only can’t hit, they can’t field or run
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions
Right.
When you deal your best trade chips, you have a chance to acquire players with high upside, even who are likely to succeed. I’d rather get 3 “toolsy but likely bust” guys, or 1 Hosmer/Stanton “should be great” guy, than 10 Cunningham, Barton, Sweeney type guys whose significant limitations are known long before they succeed or fail.
We got one, C. Gonzalez, and ironically he’s the one we turned around and dealt. Carter is half of another, but can’t field. The only real one we’ve gotten and stuck with, in 5 years, is Taylor.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I just want one Stanton.
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My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
I want him just so I can use the headline
“Stanton Deliver!” with a caption of Edward James Olmos.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
We took Simmons, Doolittle and Brown instead. Interesting
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm pretty sure Desme was picked ahead of Stanton, too.
Doesn’t Corey Brown count as toolsy, though? I assume the complaint against Brown is like with CarGon, that we gave up on him too soon and traded him away in a misguided attempt to “win now”.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
2 picks ahead :(
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My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
"I love the game, but I aspire to higher things."
Put a Milo on him!
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Seriously, wasn't Stanton expected to
go to college instead?
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I have no idea.
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My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
To be fair, I'm not sure they have a complete menu of options when the A's go for prospect haul
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by cuppingmaster on Jul 11, 2011 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions
What counts as "high upside"?
Do you think we gave up too early on Travis Buck, or do you not count him as a high-upside guy?
Would you say “toolsy but likely bust” describes any of these? Javier Herrera, Richie Robnett, Jermaine Mitchell, Sean Doolittle, Matt Sulentic, Rashun Dixon, Shane Peterson, Aaron Shipman.
Seems to me that the problem with “toolsy but likely bust” is the likely bust part.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Agreed
We’ve tried and failed. Still hope for Dixon though. Don’t tell me otherwise.
Several here have high hopes for Peterson and Shipman, too.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I thought that went without saying.
Very true though.
I was referring to guys we get back in "rebuilding" trades
In your list, IIRC definitely Herrera, Mitchell, Dixon would qualify and maybe Robnett too. I just wish we had gotten more guys like that in our trades (and hadn’t then dealt them away for a bald non-smiler).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I think Barton was considered high upside
when we acquired him. He was very young then, and there was still reason to believe he could develop power.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Only by A's standards was Barton a "high upside" 1Bman
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
He was ranked the number 48 overall prospect in 2008.
The A’s are hardly the only organization that thought highly of Barton. He ranked 32, and 28 earlier in his career as well.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Baseball America had his #32 in 2005.
We traded for him in December 2004.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Interesting. I mean, sure, if he could have become a 15-20 HR hitter
I just wonder what scouts thought so and why, because ever since I’ve seen him I sure don’t see that potential.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Well, there's a big difference between
what you can see a guy doing at age 26 and what you think he might be able to do when looking at him at age 22.
If you don’t understand why the two would ever be different, that explains a lot.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Never said I don't understand why the two would ever be different
(but thanks for being patronizing). There’s just nothing about him that suggests “He’ll probably hit for power.” Not his build, not his swing, nothing.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
You're welcome.
With all the usual patrons absent, I figured you must miss it!
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Barton was 27th overall for position players in terms of WAR last season.
Even if that’s his ceiling, it’s a pretty high ceiling.
I wonder how much being a catching prospect affected those rankings, or if he was always expected to move off the position
Get out the time-fracture wickets, Hobbes! We're gonna play Calvinball!
Well, as iglew pointed out he was ranked 32 the year after we acquired him,
and I’m pretty sure he was already off catcher at that point. At any rate, 32 is pretty damn high, so if the A’s truly misjudged him, so did a ton of other people.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
To my knowledge he never played a single inning as a catcher in the A's org
And I’m sure most people expected his power to increase as he climbed levels.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Eh.
I think people clearly expected him to gain power, considering he was ranked so highly. My point is that it’s not fair to fault the A’s for coveting Barton, when he was clearly highly thought of.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
I'd call Herrera and Robnett "toolsy but bust" I think it's too early
on Shipman, Dixon and Mitchell have a sliver of a chance and the others were never toolsy
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions
At this point I'm wondering who you think we should have traded for
Haren, Swisher, Blanton, and Holliday have probable been our only real trade chips. And Blanton is pushing it.
I think we all agree the Haren haul was very good. We got a #2 starter with the potential to be #1, a potential superstar in Cargo, and a guy in Carter who was a top 50 prospect a couple times. For Swisher, we got a number 2 starter and a projected #1 who just happened to get hurt. For Blanton, a 3 or 4 starter, we got a guy in Cardenas who was a top 80 prospect twice.
The Cargo for Holliday trade was obviously misguided, but the deal to St Louis for Wallace and Co. wasn’t a bad one by any means, and it was probably the best offer we could have gotten. Most of us wanted Wallace in the draft and were happy to get him in this deal — he was a top-40 prospect twice and had some hope of sticking at third. Billy then flipped him for Taylor, who was even more highly regarded. He was a top 20 or top 30 prospect, depending on the publication.
That most of these guys have gotten hurt or inexplicably failed is not really the fault of Beane, I don’t think, it’s just plain bad luck. Like iglew said above, he tried, but just failed.
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
http://www.domingobeisbol.com/
Anything I say will be subject to "hindsight"
because we now know a lot about how all the prospects did or didn’t develop. I’m just surprised that we never so much as obtained a player thought to be an “heir apparent” at 2B, SS, or 3B, especially when SS and 3B were, at the time, long time holes both in the majors and minors. Not that we did well anywhere else on the diamond either.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'm not sure
That we were in a position to receive one of these mythical “elite, heir apparent” stars at those positions.
I mean, what elite 2B, SS, and 3Bman have come up since we began rebuilding? That teams were willing to trade for guys like Swisher or Holliday or Haren?
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
http://www.domingobeisbol.com/
Well, I suppose we could have traded for
a guy like Adrian Cardenas. Or drafted a guy like Grant Green.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
So why arent these guys developing?
That’s where we come back to possibility that the team employs a substandard coaching staff throughout the org, and a substandard medical staff. I think we to consider those as real possibilities.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 11, 2011 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes but if you have a bunch of guys who are "slightly above average" at their very
best, you have a good team only in that one or two years when everybody is at their very best and you’re a non-contender most of the time
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions
Also, as another argument in support of Nico's point...
The A’s are very good at acquiring above replacement level filler. They find unheralded bullpen arms, and Rajai Davis on the waiver wire, etc.
My point is, they should always draft high-ceiling, toolsy guys even if they are more likely to bust, because the A’s aren’t really at risk of trotting out a position that’s woefully undermanned.
The A’s are always pretty good at having mediocrity throughout the 40-man roster. Some teams have a few stars and then a horrible, sub-replacement level dropoff at other spots.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 11, 2011 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Sometimes you get lucky
The Giants got Huff, Ross, Torres – out of nowhere and parlayed that to the WS.
I think the A’s are in a similar mindset to the Giants. The A’s have 1/2 of the pieces in place (pitching) and just need to get a little lucky on a few guys on the offensive side.
Yes but that's a recipe for mediocrity with an occasional year when everything comes
together and you contend. It’s not a recipe for contending 5-8 years in a row like we did from 1999-2004 or 2006
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions
agreed
it’s one’s personal preference on how to run a franchise. I prefer having a chance, perhaps small, that things come together and something great happens. I think this is a better way to slowly build a brand.
I think the boom and bust philosophy may help create elite teams, however, it hurts your fan base b/c your average fan will not follow the team in the bust years.
definitely proven true with the Marlins, right?
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 11, 2011 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions
But Huff, Ross, and Torres all had great upside.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I don't think anyone thought so at the time they were acquired, given how little they cost
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Huh?
a journeyman, a waiver claim to block San Diego from upgrading, and a career minor leaguer?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Sorry, I'm not good at sarcasm.
I was trying to use them as an illustration for the argument above where Nico is saying we can’t make the playoffs without high upside guys.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
OK, you can also make it if you're really really good at picking up guys
off the scrap heap or if you get really really lucky. Better?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes.
It’s a gamble either way.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I think in general, I'd rather have the Royals talent than the Giants'
ability to pick up future Huffs, Torres’s and Ross’s
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions
Some guys also just hit better in the NL.
I really think the NL and AL are apples and oranges. I know I’m in the minority there, and I’ve been accused of having a strong AL bias.
So a waiver wire claim that latches on in the right situation, in the right park, might do a lot better than he would do in an A’s uni.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 11, 2011 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm fascinated by the nearly clockwork pattern
of guys like DeJesus underperforming when they join the A’s. Absolutely, there have been exceptions (Adam Kennedy comes to mind), but it’s mind-boggling how reliably guys who could easily do “better, worse, or the same” as they just did, do worse or a lot worse.
And it’s not just “park effect”:
DeJesus: .213/.279/.299
Crisp: .234/.272/.339
Matsui: .211/.289/.328
Suzuki: .200/.294/.311
These are their ROAD stats in 2011. Willingham is less dramatic, though still under his career numbers:
Willingham: .250/.336/.406
WTF?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Well, matsui and suzuki kind of suck now anyway.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Yes, but not because of hitting in Oakland
In other words, it’s not “park effect” it’s “oh now we have to suck” effect.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
basically.
Suzuki is being run into the ground and was simply an average hitter at best in the first place.
Matsui is old. It wasn’t a big gamble to think that he might finally fall off the cliff offensively at age 37.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Road stats don't entirely dismiss a home park's effect, though
Part of the reason that splits are drastic in colo is that the ball literally moves different there. So when their hitters go on road, they have to recalibrate how a curve and slider break, etc.
Maybe oak has something akin to that. Like, you suck at hitting in Oakland, your stats suck, so you start pressing everywhere, even on the road.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 11, 2011 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions
IIRC, el croata demonstrated that the pitch that moves differently in Colorado is actually the fastball
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
I don't agree.
Outside of 2011, there have been very few guys who have significantly underachieved. We’ve just had bad offensive players. And frankly, a lot of guys have overachieved, which is frankly kinda a bad thing cause I think it was a reason for our cutting the rebuild short and going for it numerous times.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
For some reason, A's fans expect to win
We really shouldn’t. We have a terrible stadium, a tiny 2 county territory, extremely low attendance and a low budget (which is actually not bad considering the attendance).
Despite this, we did well from 1999-2006 largely due to hitting the jackpot on some draft picks and some craftiness on Beane’s part. This became the rule but it really should be the exception.
Beane no longer has an advantage over other GMs (if he ever really had one). We will continue to struggle to sign key Free Agents and even quality coaches and personnel. The other 3 teams in our division do not have this issue and also have larger budgets. It only takes one of them being competent to keep us out of the playoffs.
That we believe we can compete at all is a testament to our faith in Billy Beane. For all the naysayers, without him, we have no reason to ever expect to win on a consistant basis. And it is possible that we shouldn’t expect to win with him either.
We can complain about these minor details all we want, but without a fundamental change, we really should realize this is just who the A’s are as an organization. Reaching .500 in any given year should be quite an accomplishment.
Thus we get all the complaints about how Beane hasn’t committed to a real rebuild, and if only he had we would be good by now.
Results aren’t the end-all-be-all. At least not for me. It’s the hope that we could get better. What we’ve got now is a roster that completely sucks that we’re most likely going to piss away the good years our pitchers have. We also have no hope for any minor leaguers to come to the rescue. We don’t necessarily need to be pennant winners by now, but right now we’re in limbo both in terms of roster accumulation and with the search for a new home.
So the A’s have tried and failed over and over expecting different results. Has any one suggested the A’s brass maybe insane?
"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."
"He's chicken curry right now. He'll become beef curry a little later on."
-Keith Smart
Also you have to keep in mind context.
You say we should go for it every year, but when we went for Holliday that crippled us down the line and is partly a reason why we are here in this situation. Going for it needs to be weighted by context. At that point Billy chose poorly.
"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."
"He's chicken curry right now. He'll become beef curry a little later on."
-Keith Smart
Not every year,
but take advantages of good opportunities whenever they arise, yes.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
How?
Extemely poor management by both the owners & Beane. I’d take the 1979 A’s over this bunch anyday. Why? At least most of ‘em weren’t injured & when Billy Martin took over from the also ran former coach, he klcked some butt & taught them to play baseball.
Frankly, I see no hope for this team. Management could care less about spending $ to get decent players. The farm system has few if any prospects. As someone once said, “you can’t put in what God left out.”
I’ve been an A’s fan since 1968 when I started going to the Coliseum, but this franchise is dead as a door nail. We can only look forward to 10 more years of loosing seasons w/ the current bunch in charge as well as Bud Selig’s wish to extinguish the team. Me? I’d revoke the Yankee’s franchise & have a salary cap for all teams as well as revenue sharing.
Let’s face it. The A’s are dead & all of their rebuilding has been a total failure w/ the exception of pitching. They couldn’t hit water if they fell outta a boat!
It ain't over till the fat lady sings...but she is on a diet now!
Warner Bros. to delay release of MoneyBall until 2016
At Brad Pitt’s demand, Warner Bros. will delay the release of MoneyBall until around 2016 — or at least until it’s cool to be Billy Beane again.
by BlueMoon on Jul 11, 2011 6:26 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Im still going to get my royalty checks, right?
A Kouzmanoff for the rest of us!
by OptimistPrime on Jul 11, 2011 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions
I have one for you. Come on over. Door's unlocked.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
what happened to the candy!?
A Kouzmanoff for the rest of us!
by OptimistPrime on Jul 11, 2011 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions
When you unfold the royalty check there's candy.
Just get over here, quick. I’m very horny busy today.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Would you, could you, in a boat?
Would you, could you, with a goat?
by LoneStranger on Jul 11, 2011 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Rather than blow up the team; LET"S JUST BRING EVERYONE BACK AGAIN NEXT YEAR!!!
maybe 2011 was a wash and we’ll take a mulligan.
Bring back DeJesus, and Willingham. Call up Taylor and leave Sweeney as 4th OF.
Maybe Barton will bounce back in 2012 and Suzuki will find some rejuvenation if we send him home in September?
Every man for himself...
Sadly, it's not a horrible idea.
It’s unlikely we can produce a 2012 OF likely to better than bringing those guys back, and our draft pick from this year’s record will be in the bag.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
We could probably get slightly worse production for a lot less money though
Right now we’re paying Crisp, DeJesus, Matsui, Jackson and Willingham $24 million for 4.5 WAR annualized.
I bet we could get 2 WAR out Taylor, Miller, Sweeney, Mitchell and Carter for like $1.5M
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Yup
And I would rather see the later. If we aren’t going to win, why rent players and waste money?
I’d like to see a team of young athletic guys. Let them have some fun and form some chemistry and see if you find lightning in a bottle. I think it is about the only chance we have.
I am also a fan of the Marlins model of winning Championships. Go super cheap and crappy and then bring up all our prospects at once… let them get good for about 2 years and then spend like crazy to fill the holes and win it all. Then sell everything. Rinse and repeat.
Maybe, but their fans don't seem to agree with you. Their attendance is terrible.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions
How was it when they were winning?
I would guess they, like the A’s, can’t expect a good turnout no matter what they do. At least they have 2 titles to show for their efforts.
I think, like the A's, they're hurt by a perception that they can't, or won't, hold on to their
best players when they get expensive, so it’s better not to get too attached to a team. It’s hard to build a fanbase that way.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions
At SABR, one of the things Cameron was talking about
And how he’s sort of come full-circle on it, is how rebuilding can actually be pretty bad for a team off the field. He cited the Indians (until recently), how they sold everyone away after 2007 and just kept Sizemore and fans stopped coming. It’s only their unexpected resurgence, a strong showing from Asdrubal Cabrera, and Hafner and Sizemore playing like it’s 2007 that has helped them. I took that to mean as rebuilding that fails (like here), in many ways creates its own downward spiral.
Based on that and some of my own feelings, it seems hard to advocate for getting rid of everyone when we’re just exacerbating the problem you referenced above.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 11, 2011 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions
I can see not wanting to pay a lot for players if the team is going to
be crappy anyway. I think what drives fans away is letting players go even when you’re winning, like the Marlins did after 1997 or the A’s did with Giambi and Tejada.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions
In our case
And with many other teams it is not something you can avoid. At some point if you have budget constraints, you will have to let players go. If you wait until the last possible moment to do so, you will likely not be fielding the most competitive team.
So while rebuilding is bad for attendance, it is moot because it is going to happen anyways. Might as well do it on your own terms.
It was the coup de grace for the Expos
The team has made many overtures they don’t want to completely tank a season, hence the premature rebuild.
how was SABR this year?
You went to the one in Long Beach? I’d love to hear about it.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 11, 2011 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions
It might even be a tough sell, regardless.
A Miami night, in August, sitting in a stadium, with no chance of seeing frontal nudity, or any of the 5,438 nightclubs? Much like Oakland, the casual fan is a tough sell there, I bet.
Nick Swisher is handsome.
So...what can we even get in return for trades?
The sad part about this is that I just don’t see us getting many good players back if we gut the team. Anderson, Cahill, and Gio, of course, could net us a lot…but they’re also all really good. Everyone else…eh. Willingham and Coco? Are we better off with the picks if we keep them, or can we actually get something better in a trade? Weeks ’ain’t going anywhere. Maybe we can trade some of our bullpen/other starters…they have some value. Bailey should net us something good (slide Devine in his place). Same with Ziggy. Maybe McCarthy as well? Harden has no value, and Morosco doesn’t have a long enough track record. I mean…in my mind, we should ship most of the offense out for anything, promote players like Taylor, etc., and grit our teeth as the offense presumably gets even worse as we chase Houston for the #1 pick. But…I see no really good options.
We probably need to aim for prospects that are far off
Low A guys mostly. We aren’t going to get a high ceiling AAA player for Willingham. But perhaps a high ceiling, high risk, 19 year old somewhere.
i think McCarthy is on his way out
why else would he already be named SP for fridays game when everyone else except maybe Gio is available unless he is being showcased
by heartstopper on Jul 11, 2011 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions
Because Cahill pitched Sunday
and McCarthy is the #3 starter behind Gio and Cahill. Moscoso’s not even eligible (10 days in minors), they don’t have to call Outman up (and make a roster move) until they need him to pitch, Ross is hurt. It’s basically the single most logical pitcher to throw Friday.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Especially if you believe that Cahill is better on 5 days rest than 4 days
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions
This is about Twitter, isn't it?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
i loved when mrs mccarthy called mr mccarthy an asshat. that's an all time great tweet.
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
I would say
that is is the worst offensive team the A’s have had in years, but it looks just as bad as the last 5 or so. The look defeated when they take the field and when they come off it.
At this point, it would be nice to see a couple signings (spend some damn money Lew) of top free agents.
Baja been here
TBH
A lot of guys who look promising are still in the minors, which is strange, since the last couple of years were supposed to be rebuilding years, where you could stock up your team and farm system.
time for change at the top
but we all know that ain’t gonna happen
Trade Sabean/jk...Overthrow the Ydorks...
If Barton had 2010 again
Kouz hit like he did before, Willingham, DeJesus, Matsui hit like they had prior to Oakland, Braden stayed healthy, Anderson stayed healthy, Bailey stayed healthy, this team would look a hell of a lot better. Yeah, we totally suck right now, but were the guys we got to play like they have in the past, this team would have been contending.
A Kouzmanoff for the rest of us!
Basically we need everyone to have a career year at the same time to be a contender for one year
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Even if we got production out of two or three of our hitters
we would at least be 500
A Kouzmanoff for the rest of us!
by OptimistPrime on Jul 11, 2011 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions
Not sure about that. We're now on a 69 win pace. We'd need 12 more wins to get to 81
Even if you add 2 Wins more from 3 more player that’s only 6 Wins or 75 Wins.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Sorry, I meant 500 as of now
A Kouzmanoff for the rest of us!
by OptimistPrime on Jul 11, 2011 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Isn't that the same thing?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions
The Giants are still contenders. They're in first place.
On paper, they look like contenders next year, too.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 11, 2011 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions
so is ours.
it’s just we aren’t getting a shitload of lucky breaks so we’re not like 27-12 in one run games.
err I mean WE DON’T HAVE GRITTY GAMERS WHO DO THE LITTLE THINGS AND PLAY THE RIGHT WAY AND KNOW HOW TO WIN
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
mikev - I'm with you
Lucky breaks (Giants) vs immense sucktitude from every hitter (A’s).
That said, Boche’s BP management >>>>> Geren’s BP management, it’s not the difference between the A’s and Giants W-L totals, but its a starting point.
Pythag somewhat agrees as well:
A’s Pythag = 43-49
G’s Pythag = 47-45
and this was a lot closer a week ago.
But seriously mikev
We play in a much more difficult league.
No free out every time through the lineup.
Having to face the Yankees & Red Sox & Rays.
NL baseball is weaker by design, we’d certainly be a heck of lot better if we were in the NL West, but ew gross, NL baseball.
The "anchor" of their future position players, Buster Posey, also turned out to be just as good as they hoped. Ours haven't.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
And they drafted him 5th overall. Part of my point.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 11, 2011 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Or just their regular output.
Dejesus, Matsui, Barton all sucking terribly at the same time did not bode well for us this year. Career years weren’t necessary.
by asyouwish33 on Jul 11, 2011 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Or even Little League players, really.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Everyone agreed the team wasn't bad
Even the notorious pessimists had us pegged as at least a .500 team. Some of us thought we were an 87-88 win team. On paper this was true. The projection systems all had us above .500.
The team just laid an egg. Geren had something to do with this. As did Fuentes. It just spiraled out of control from there.
How does Gerald Perry still have a job? I would like us to go without a hitting coach just to see if it matters.
on paper, assuming there were zero injuries and every player on the roster performed to their full projection
which basically never ever ever happens for any team. ever.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Nope
Projections factor in expected injuries. We also had solid backups everywhere. Still do mostly.
The time to do that was these past 5 years. How did the A's fail at this so completely?
The answer is easy:
Billy Beane
The solution is hopeless.
Even if the last 5 years should expose Billy Beane as getting right once in his looks at numbers alongside getting lucky with pitchers, it won’t change anything. Beane isn’t going anywhere, and he is failing.
I cannot think of any job you can work at where creating a product that finishes last or near last in the market year after year won’t get you fired.
Unless that job is A’s GM and your first name is Billy and last name is Beane.
Honestly this is an epic fail and the point, that we’re no better off than we were, and 5 years of rebuilding has only made the team worse is dead on. It’s time for Beane to take responsibility and step down.
I only wish he would.
ANYONE could replace Beane and not get worse results! It wouldn’t be humanly possible to get worse results. Grabbing any person off the street and making them the new GM, baseball fan or no, would not be able to have any worse results than what Beane has done these last 5 years.
It’s stunningly amazing that nothing is changing and that people still think Beane as a miracle worker. His record should have ensured his firing. Unfortunately, I believe due to his contract it is impossible?
I’m a sad and disappointed A’s fan. At this point any change would be welcome and couldn’t but help to improve things.
I think it is safe to say there are few who would classify BB as a miracle worker
good trades, bad trades, a few stellar trades, a few big bad stinkers, but the days of miracle worker have diminished
A Kouzmanoff for the rest of us!
by OptimistPrime on Jul 11, 2011 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions
He took chances
and many of them have failed. Cargon was clear dud. The Willingham/Matsui/Dejesus signing looked good on paper but the players have to perform and have not. Somehow, when you bring in guys and they cannot perform to the backside of their baseball cards – it seems like it must have something to do with the culture of the organization. Beane sets the tone for the culture so I would hold him accountable for that.
I too am a hugely despondent fan. I find myself watching the uniforms and not looking at the players inside them now. When we are at the plate, if I sneeze then look up, it is always 2 outs with 2 strikes on whoever is batting. Disgusting performance from our positional players. Carter looks lost – so we need to keep that in mind when we sing the “bring up the kids” song. Weekes is another story though.
Baja been here
BABIP is murdering us this year
Rosales: .091 Career: .277
Suzuki: .235 Career: .272
Matsui: .236 Career: .299
Kouzmanoff: .239 Career: .284
DeJesus: .248 Career: .316
Ellis: .249 Career: .291
Barton: .260 Career: .294
Pennington: .274 Career: .298
In fact the only guys who are hitting as expected are Willingham and Sweeney. Sizemore appears to be the only one who is getting lucky, but he’s a rookie so we dont know where he will land. Weeks is pretty high too, but that’s his style, an he’s only at .340 which isnt that big a deal.
Its pretty rare to get screwed this badly by BABIP. Very few teams could survive this.
What could explain this?
My eyes say poor contact, though they also have seen a lot of line drives at people. Hitter BABIP can be controlled by the hitter to a greater extent than pitcher BABIP. There is a very good chance that the reason for this is not luck, but rather systemic bad hitting.
The operative word is "weak"
Barton’s long drives are usually catchable fly balls and his searing line drives are often “soft drives”. Pennington is played with 7 infielders on defense. And so on.
Watch the A’s take batting practice sometime and then watch the other team, and you’ll know why the A’s have such a low BABIP. They simply don’t hit enough balls hard or force the defense to spread out enough.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
What you are implying that these hitters are always bad though
Their career BABIP says its not the case. Why is this year so different? Are all our hitters weaker, is it a strength/conditioning thing?
Billy Beane is the only reason we expect to win
As I stated above. We have no reason for our perpetual optimism.
Had this as part of a fanpost, but it belongs in here
BILLY BEANE’s TRADE HISTORY IN WAR SINCE 2007
Nick Swisher (1.3) for Fautino de los Santos*, Gio Gonzalez* & Ryan Sweeney* (12.4) +11.1
Scott Hairston & Aaron Cunningham (0.7) for Kevin Kouzmanoff* & Eric Sogard* (3.2) +2.5
Jason Perry (n/a) for Jack Hannahan (2.5) +2.5
Justin Sellers & Richie Robnett (n/a) for Michael Wuertz* (2.3) +2.3
Joe Dillon (0.2) for Adam Kennedy (1.8) +1.6
Aaron Miles (n/a) for Adam Rosales* & Willy Taveras (1.4) +1.4
Jason Kendall (-0.1) for Jerry Blevins* & Rob Bowen (1.1) +1.2
Mark Kotsay (0.8) for Jamie Richmond & Joey Devine* (2.0) +1.2
David Purcey* (-0.1) for Scott Sizemore* (1.0) +1.1
Sam Demel* (0.1) for Conor Jackson* (1.0) +0.9
Jake Fox (-0.7) for Ross Wolf (0.0) +0.7
Kirk Saarloos (-0.4) for David Shafer (n/a) +0.4
Justin Marks* & Vin Mazzaro* (-0.1) for David DeJesus* (0.2) +0.3
Eric Patterson (-0.2) for Fabian Williamson (n/a) +0.2
Raj Davis* (-0.1) for Trystan Magnusen* & Danny Farquar (0.0) +0.1
Clayton Mortensen* (-0.1) for Ethan Hollinsworth* (n/a) +0.1
Matt Murton (0.1) for Corey Wimberly (n/a) -0.1
Danny Putnam (n/a) for Chad Reineke (-0.1) -0.1
Gregorio Petit (n/a) for Edwar Ramirez (-0.1) -0.1
Matt Spencer*, Ronny Morla* & Jeff Gray* (-0.1) for Jake Fox & Aaron Miles (-0.3) -0.2
Corey Brown* & Henry Rodriguez* (0.4) for Josh Willingham* (0.2) -0.2
Brett Wallace* (0.4) for Michael Taylor* (n/a) -0.4
Marcus MacBeth* & Ben Jukich (0.2) for Chris Denorfia (-0.3) -0.5
Craig Italiano, Sean Gallagher & Ryan Webb (0.1) for Scott Hairston (-0.5) -0.6
Jack Hannahan (0.6) for Justin Souza* (n/a) -0.6
Orlando Cabrera (0.8) for Tyler Ladendorf* (n/a) -0.8
Milton Bradley (1.8) for Andrew Brown (0.8) -1.0
Matt Holliday* (13.0 or 2.6) for Shane Peterson*, Brett Wallace & Clayton Mortensen (0.0) either -13.0 or -2.6 depending whether you take Holliday’s half season or entire career with STL
John Baker* (3.0) for Jason Stokes (n/a) -3.0
Dan Haren & Connor Robertson (15.0) for Brett Anderson*, Chris Carter*, Aaron Cunningham, Dana Eveland, Carlos Gonzalez & Greg Smith (11.2) -3.8
Joe Blanton* (6.1) for Adrian Cardenas*, Matt Spencer & Josh Outman* (2.1) -4.0
Chad Gaudin & Rich Harden (4.0) for Josh Donaldson*, Sean Gallagher, Matt Murton & Eric Patterson (-0.5) -4.5
Marco Scutaro (7.4) for Graham Godfrey* & Kristian Bell (0.1) -7.3
Carlos Gonzalez*, Greg Smith & Huston Street* (13.9) for Matt Holliday (3.0) -10.9
*means players still with team
ADDED: 44.5 WAR
GAVE UP: 57.6 WAR (or more depending on how you view Holliday)
POINTS OF INTEREST:
-We are in danger of not winning the Haren or Blanton deals when we thought we hosed them.
-Harden & Scutaro really killed us aka sucked here and were stars once traded, we might get some of that back with Sizemore though.
-Hannahan was a lot better than we thought.
-We won out when comparing the The Swisher deal vs the Cargo deal.
These points really show how backwards common thought is around here. We lost the Haren deal and the Swisher deal cancels out and bests the Cargo one. Most teams have these kinds of deals though, Nico’s post lacks comparisons around the rest of the league, sure we have no top 50 prospects on that one list, but Michael Choice is flat out better than a lot of guys that made it, and NY prospects are continuously overrated, Montero is just another Joba, yknow? Probably will be okay, but nowhere near the monster as advertised. Choice belonged on that list, not high up, but still. Things are bad yes, but bad in a weird way. We still have the best pitching staff in MLB and that won’t be radically different next year, even if we trade Cahill. Pitching in Oakland = Hitting in Texas. We can get good years from just about anyone here. We categorically must trade our most valuable pitchers for young, everyday starters. Differing from the “anyone can hit in Texas” thing, Texas did get their actual guy who hits everywhere, Hamilton this way, by trading their best pitcher, and we need to find ours via this method.
Where we were really screwed was not getting Adrian Beltre, who spurned us because of our relic of a park. Again, it all comes back to this….
by PL78 on Jul 11, 2011 9:44 AM PDT reply actions 5 recs
Though the Haren, Swisher, & Blanton deal
have some work left to do… Brett Anderson, Carter, FDLS, Gio, Sweeney all still have years left with the A’s.
Great post though. Rec’d.
You would like to think BA+Carter can add 3.8 WAR to this...but neither are a lock.
Outman could in theory add 4 more WAR, and there’s Cardenas too, but again no lock.
The Swisher trade was the best trade Beane has made since the Mulder one, not the Haren one….sure if we kept Cargo and he gave us a few 3-4 WAR years we’d be in business, but no one really can say he’d be the animal he’s become in the friendly confines of Denver, in fact, the odds of him being that good here are extremely remote. The Swish trade is the gift that keeps on giving…
Very well done.
Not sure how to view the Holiday trade. I mean, we traded for one of the best hitters in the NL to complement our quality pitching. The only problem is we didn’t account for Holiday’s apathy in Oakland. The biggest trade that hurt us, it seems, was the Scutaro trade, but we know that was for financial reasons. You look at some of those trades, and Billy still looks like a very smart GM. Namely, Wuertz for Robnett or getting Devine for Kotsay.
by asyouwish33 on Jul 11, 2011 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions
This is just it.
I think what Beane is exceptionally good at is finding “slightly above average” players who are viewed by others as “not very good”. Scott Sizemore is a perfect example, as was Scutaro, as is Wuertz.
The problem is that what he’s bad at is identifying “really good players” when it’s not utterly obvious and so the A’s are constantly trying to win with a combination of slightly above average “jewels” and players who are no better.
You can’t win with Sizemore, Scutaro, and Wuertz unless you have a couple really good players around them.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Stars and Scrubs approach
As opposed to the “all scrubs” approach we have right now
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 11, 2011 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Uhh, we are going to the playoffs in 09 if Scutaro has a 4.5 WAR year at SS for us instead of the Jays.
There’s no way we trade Holliday if we had Scooter kicking butt instead of O-Cab sucking.
The year we finished 22 games back? ok.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Yep, team dynamics change with the addition of a great player over a bad one.
The human element! You might think its meaningless but it really isnt.
You mean like when they added Matt Holliday to replace Emil Brown from 2008 to 2009
and finished 22 games back?
Like that?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
I could give some allowance for intangibles
but the A’s won 75 games in 2009, and the Angels won 97. Even with the A’s’ Pythag projections characterizing them as a .500 club, how on earth does Marco Scutaro make up 22 games in the standings? I can believe the “human element” is meaningful without thinking it would have gotten the A’s remotely close to the playoffs in 2009. BTW, the Red Sox won 95 that season for the WC.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Not tradng Holliday adds more wins too.
As does being in contention and buying instead of selling. The Angels pythag was 92 wins and under this scenario we are a better team, so we win more games against the Angels so the gap gets closer and closer.
Heh.
You had valid points until you wrote “the human thing”
then I couldnt let myself carry on.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
I've posted here many times that my views on baseball change by the day.
Its called “being open minded and willing to explore all possibilities”. You should try it out.
Or here’s a more basic example that lies in a bunch of gameday threads, here:
A poor AB =
“BOO YOU STRICKED OUT I HATE YOU AND FIND YOU STUPID AND WANT YOU OFF MY TEAM”
A HR in the very next AB, a mere 20 minutes later:
“YAY YOU CRUSHED A HR I LOVE YOU AND WANT TO BE YOUR BEST FRIEND FOREVERRRR!”
Understand?
Whatever, I'm not gonna start anything here.
I’m just pointing out that your opinion changes conveniently based on your argument, and if you’re gonna do that, you should cut back on the snark.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Trying!
Another thing I learned very recently was to never complain about the ASG, I wrote that post but then guess what, most of the guys I was outraged about not being selected made the team anyway. I will never care about the initial ASG selections ever again.
As an A's fan, good choice.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
At that point
I think you blame the drafting. We draft the Penningtons and the Bucks for years and that hurts your star power. People will use the excuse that we don’t have a first five pick, but Heyward was drafted number 14 and Trout was drafted 25th. It doesn’t take a top five pick to get a star player, it takes good scouting.
Exactly
The heart and soul of winning without huge payroll is your drafting and your player development. Period. Everything else (trades, signings) supports it.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
It's curious to me that
in this era of sabermetrics when clutch and BABIP and streakiness and anything else that can’t be reliably projected counts as “luck”, that failing to pick Mike Trout first when every GM and every mock draft had ~20 guys ahead of him on their draft boards is a lack of “good scouting”.
Is anyone willing to consider that maybe the Angels just got lucky with Mike Trout?
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
by iglew on Jul 11, 2011 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
but then if they do that they can't rip the front office and ownership
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
ohhhh how I love you.
I’ve always felt the same way. You also have to consider how lucky they are that someone they might have had higher on their board who might not have turned out, say Grant Green, got drafted earlier on.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Sure.
My annoyance is that the A’s aren’t doing anything differently. They aren’t cutting edge anymore. Why only have 15-18 amateur scouts in the entire nation? Don’t they all make about 50-75k apiece? You could double your amateur scouting department for a million bucks a year. Yet no team does it.
I find it unconscionable that hundreds of players are ranked against each other withou having seen some of them play at all, and having seen the rest play only once or twice.
The braves saw heyward 15 times. He was in their backyard. No one else saw him nearly as much, and the complaint was that “all he does is walk”.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 11, 2011 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Totally with you on this
Brandon Mccarthy’s been great when healthy this year, but wouldn’t his million bucks have been better used on hiring 10 more scouts?
John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson
Certainly the scouts would be a better investment than Fuentes in my book.
McCarthy I love. Signing a pre free agency pitcher who was non tendered is a great move in my opinion. The team will control McCarthy on the cheap next yr too.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 12, 2011 7:38 PM PDT up reply actions
You would be a fool
to not include luck into the equation. Trout was shooting up the draft boards after his senior season, but of course he wasn’t a top 10 pick. Grant Green, on the other hand, was a top 5 pick going into his junior year, but failed to impress, thus dropping to the A’s. Luckily, the A’s have 49 other rounds, and multiple years to pick at least one high ceiling star. Unfortunately, it hasn’t happened.
The A's have picked plenty of high-ceiling guys in the later rounds.
Unfortunately, the high-ceiling guys who are still around after round 2 almost never reach those ceilings.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
There's an element of luck in any success story. There's also an element of skill.
The Angels have a player acquisition philosophy based on upside. So yes, they sometimes pick up Scott Kazmir, Brandon Wood or Vernon Wells who don’t work out, but they also sometimes pick up Mike Trout, Torii Hunter, or Kendrys Morales who do or probably will.
The difference between them and the A’s is that if Kazmir, Wood and Wells had worked out, they’d be All-Stars. When Pennington, Weeks and Willingham succeed, they’re average or slightly above.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 12, 2011 5:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Part of it is they have a budget to take risks on high-risk high-reward players.
If we had Kazmir and Wells sucking and sucking payroll, it would be crippling.
by Billy Frijoles on Jul 12, 2011 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions
This is Beane's argument. I'm not so sure the "low ceiling" strategy isn't equally crippling
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 12, 2011 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
This is why I want to draft and sign overslot toolsy hs kids in the later rounds.
You can do that for ten million per year and still run a major league budget of 40 to 50 million. That’s my current model.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 12, 2011 7:40 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm all for this. I'm not sure how much Bud will like it.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 13, 2011 8:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Well,
for one, I don’t think the Torii Hunter comparison is apt. Everyone knew he was good, but the A’s can’t (won’te) spend money on a guy like that.
In regards to Pennington, he was rumored to go as high as #2 overall the year he was drafted. He obviously has a pretty low ceiling now, but I wonder what it was like when he was first drafted?
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Pennington was ranked #27 by BA in 2005 in their list of Top 200 Draft Prospects
I don’t think the Torii Hunter comparison is apt. Everyone knew he was good, but the A’s can’t (won’te) spend money on a guy like that.
Not spending money on guys everyone knows is good is part of the problem
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 13, 2011 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions
Good post, although I don't entirely agree with the analysis.
Reasons for trades vary, so while Haren and Blanton have put up good numbers, we weren’t likely to keep/afford them so I think they count as a win. I’m on the “grade trades at the time of the trade” side of things, so I think those were obvious wins when we made them, and were the right moves. The unpredictable nature of prospects might make them less good than we had hoped, but they were still wins.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
PL, not to create more work, but if you have already done so, can you do pre-2007?
Just want to see.
Esp re: Mulder trade, the much maligned (and defended) Bradley-Ethier deal, and the Damon, Dye, Guillen, midseason acquisitions.
by Billy Frijoles on Jul 12, 2011 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Rebuilding
Nico – as you defined the timeframe, post Haren/Blanton/Swisher deals, you eliminated an important piece of the puzzle. Once you trade your main assets, as listed above, for prospects, you are going to have a void of MLB prospects. Stated another way. how were the A’s supposed to further rebuild, while only holding mid-level prospects? The rebuild were specifically those 3 trades and anything after that was an attempt to move forward with the assets acquired earlier.
The veterans they could have traded away included: Chavez (hurt), Duke (hurt), Ellis, etc – players that did not have significant trade value. Even the Holiday for Gonzalez trade would not have counted in the rebuild mode, because Carlos was acquired pre-timeframe.
There was still Suzuki and Street
Street had 3 years of contract control left and certainly could have been dealt for a good INF prospect to further the “stay the course” rebuild. Suzuki had a lot of trade value two years ago.
So if you consider that we could be sitting, right now, with C. Gonzalez, plus the prospects you could have gotten for Street and Suzuki, now you’re talking about a real core of exciting young prospects to augment Weeks, Sizemore, C. Gonzalez, any of our other current 3 starting OFers, and the pitching staff.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
This is why I am very open to dealing Gio right now.
Gio is at his career peak value right now. He has a great track record of health, he has pitched very well at the major league level, and he is the cheapest he will ever be.
Suzuki’s career peak value is in the rear view window. He’s regressed offensively and defensively, and his cheapest years are behind him. Whatever he could fetch on the open market now is less than it would’ve been two years ago.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 11, 2011 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions
The (relative) cheapness is what makes me think
the Yankees aren’t a natural trading partner for Gio. Sure, any team can appreciate a cost-controlled player but it’s worth more to some teams than to others. It’s worth less to the Yankees than to any other team, so why should we expect them to make a better offer than other candidates?
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
KC Royals
Would they make good trade partners? (please say yes). Gio would fit in quite nicely as the ACE of their young staff.
by Colorado Fan on Jul 11, 2011 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions
I doubt it
They aren’t in “buy” mode yet. Soon, but not quite yet.
I'm not sure it would be a buy-sell trade anyway.
If they have blocked positions that are positions of strength for them, I could see that maybe working. Similar idea for Tampa Bay.
A KC trade would make more sense in the off-season, though.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Cincinnati seems like a good fit
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by CaliforniaJag on Jul 12, 2011 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Agreed, I think Gio & Cahill must be traded for everyday players, with Bailey added to the mix to get better players too
Go with Anderson as the ace with Ross, Outman, Moscoso and potentially Braden in the mix, looking to stretch out FDLS and letting AJ Griffin try and break camp in spring and then throwing as much money as we can at any two or three of these free agents:
Mark Buehrle (33)
Kyle Davies (28)
Justin Duchscherer (34)
Jeff Francis (30)
Freddy Garcia (36)
Rich Harden (30)
Livan Hernandez (37)
Edwin Jackson (28)
Kenshin Kawakami (37)
Hiroki Kuroda (37)
Jason Marquis (33)
Kevin Millwood (37)
Sergio Mitre (31)
Brad Penny (34)
Oliver Perez (30)
Joel Pineiro (33)
Javier Vazquez (35)
Chien-Ming Wang (32)
Brandon Webb (33)
Dontrelle Willis (30)
C.J. Wilson (31)
Chris Young (33)
If we can get mashers for Gio, TC + Bailey, we wont need those 3 to win the division if we are scoring 4-5 runs a game….in theory.
So we'll be good in 18 years! Awesome!
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions
So we have the best farm system in baseball all of a sudden?
by Slide Giambi on Jul 11, 2011 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions
KC moved to Oakland AGAIN!
What about territorial rights!
Rick Tittle just said the A's bats must have dutch elm disease because that wood is rotten
At least there’s some humor to be had amongst the abject failure of this team
This is utterly depressing
but true, I’m afraid.
"You know, a long time ago being crazy meant something. Nowadays everybody's crazy."
-Charles Manson
What's more depressing?
Selig saying nothing new on the San Jose issue.
What a joke that process is
I’ve been overwhelmed and I’ve been underwhelmed. Can I ever just be whelmed?
...why?
Hundreds of fans – including this youngster – lined up to get autographs and have their pictures taken with Selig.
http://mlb.socialhub.awarenessnetworks.com/main/content/?id=6336619910899259954&partnerId=aw-6336619910899259954-996
Last of the Ninth - Photography
"Grandpa, who is that little boy and that old man in that picture?"
“Oh, that’s the picture of me and the guy who ruined baseball.”
by LoneStranger on Jul 11, 2011 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions
this thread is so frickin’ complete and awesome. it’s rad when we can read a rehash of every single A’s roster issue but with 99% less flamewar than when it originally appeared.
Shut up, no one cares what you said because you didn't capitalize your sentences.
by LoneStranger on Jul 11, 2011 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions
Yet he capitalizes his initials
This kind of stuff bugs me everyday every day often. (In joke alert)
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
ohsnap.gif
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DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
No its just the matrix of domination setting in.
Cross sectioning of suck includes failing at drafting, failing at trading and failing at luring in FA’s.
"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."
"He's chicken curry right now. He'll become beef curry a little later on."
-Keith Smart
Huh. Anybody else just hear on 95.7 the "breaking news" about Derek Jeter?
apparently he’s paying off the dude’s student loans that caught his 3000th hit and gave it back to him, and the Yankees are giving the kid an entry level job.
Ok, so that’s pretty cool.
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Moral of the story
Best way to get paid for catching a historic baseball is to give it away for free.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
basically, yeah.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
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DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Plus, Jeter is now going to introduce the guy to all his Yankee teammates
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
"Orange you glad you caught that ball?"
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
He'd still probably come out with more money in the end if he'd sold it
But this is a better story, no question. It at least takes care of his debt and gives him a chance to move up in the organization, which could be worth more than the money attached to it.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Kind of ironic for the Yankees to be rewarding someone who's not all about the money
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Isn't entry level with the Yankees like $3M/year?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions
if so, I'm dropping everything and applying every day.
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And in even worse news...
I turn on True Blood last night, and am greeted with an ad on HBO, Jeter 3000, coming soon.
So either they’ve made a documentary about his pursuit of 3000, or there’s a very feminine baseball playing robot coming our way.
There's a difference?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Reading all these comments
After reading all these posts, I’ve come to two conclusions.
First, that iglew is probably right in that any team in the A’s position must keep trying, and hoping that it all comes together as it has for any of the currently successful twenty teams in a similar financial position to the A’s. The wealthier ten teams, of course, have it easy by being able to buy the best players as they reach free agency, and the top three teams (Boston, NYY, the Phillies) have it easiest of all.
Second, that the A’s have fundamental flaws in their projection systems and the hitting philosophy within the organization. From everything I’ve read, the A’s rely on the same data and analysis that people here on AN rely upon, with supplemental input from scouts. The only conclusion I can reach is that the analysis is wrong, the projections are flawed, and the scouts aren’t very good when it comes to position players. This reliance on statistics not only applies to the players, but to the organizational philosophy of coaching and hitting, and possibly fielding as well.
Creation of a team by statistical analysis lies at the heart of Billy Beane’s work, and that of his disciples, Paul DePodesta, David Forst, and J.P. Ricciardi. Two of the disciples failed as General Managers, and if Forst is being given a lot of authority today, then a third is failing as well. It may be that the analysis regarding pitching is triumphant, or it could be that Rick Peterson’s genius lives on today in minor league instruction, or that the A’s scouts are better at projecting future success when it comes to pitchers than position players.
Or maybe, as some have suggested, that’s all hyperbole, and the only reason the A’s develop great pitchers is because their stadium makes mediocre pitchers great, and success breeds confidence, which breeds success, and turns mid-rotation guys like Cahill and Gio into near-elite #1s in their own right. (Maybe someone needs to do a statistical analysis of the role of confidence in the success of failure of baseball players, or maybe not).
The problem here, of course, is that so many statistical folks here at AN will poo-poo the idea that when it comes to the real world and projection, their system simply doesn’t work well enough for any team to have success using it, and maybe it’s best confined mostly to what happens just in the major leagues. Or, of course, that successful projection analysis is impossible in most cases simply because the human factor is too strong for anyone under the age of 25.
The other conclusion...
…is that the A’s SAY they’re relying on this statistical analysis, but in fact they’re relying on a small group of underpaid scouts.
How did you get those 2 conclusions from this thread? I don't see where anyone's brought
up either the paramount importance of statistical analysis nor scout salaries
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions
People here are complaining about the A's make-up based on statistical analysis
If it’s true the A’s use statistical analysis, then what conclusions can we draw?
How are people supposed to support their opinions if not with statistics?
Just saying “Kendall sucked and was overpaid” isn’t persuasive unless you have numbers to support it. It’s got nothing to do with the scouting budget or how the A’s analyze players.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions
It may be that the analysis regarding pitching is triumphant, or it could be that Rick Peterson’s genius lives on today in minor league instruction, or that the A’s scouts are better at projecting future success when it comes to pitchers than position players.
we’re assuming they’re going for pitching and position players at the same clip. maybe they’ve decided that great pitching is more within reach than the other. like someone i used to know who only bought white wine. not because she liked it better than red, but because for 15 bucks the quality of white wine you get is closer to the top than what you’d get with red. (her fallacy or not is not at issue.) so maybe the A’s have done a similar cost or efficiency decision. wasn’t the theory of this season that iron-clad pitching would be the foundation that an offense of imperfect fits with here-n-there production could capitalize on?
by AV on Jul 11, 2011 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions
The irony is that I'd probably say that pitching is much more difficult to project than hitting overall
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 11, 2011 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions
They might think it's easier to teach, or at least that they're better at teaching it
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
And again...
Getting to the heart of the position player issue …. if the A’s are relying on statistical analysis to a greater degree than other teams for projection purposes, and if the team is failing on a consistent basis when it comes to position players, then what does this say?
What if they aren't? What if they're relying on scouts who are watching the players with their own eyes
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Well, that's the other explanation
But from everything I’ve read, isn’t statistical analysis what made Beane a star, and made stars of DePodesta and Ricciardi? Isn’t that why people were calling Forst a genius?
Are you suggesting it was all a joke, a put-on, and what we’re really seeing is a pretty standard by-the-books old fashioned organization, and Moneyball was a hype?
Nope, but you seem pretty hell bent on proving "stats are wrong"
or else you wouldn’t be asking questions like you asked up above.
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When in doubt
Answer a question with an attack. Force the other guy to get defensive.
dude the first post you made here was attacking, get over it.
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Attacking what? Statistical analysis. I asked a question
Apparently people here would rather believe that Billy Beane is an evil person than seriously examine one of the potential ways this team was created.
I’ve heard projection analysis here called a law, like physics. No, it’s a bunch of baseball fans and statisticians trying to come to grips with how to compare players with one another, and how to figure out how a player’s career will pan out. I’m wondering if maybe it’s a limited mode - something iglew brings up in relation to PECOTA.
I also should note that the stat guys here on AN a couple of years ago were raving about the next great thing, based on projections. His name was Conor Jackson, and he was near the top of Billy Beane’s wish list.
Yeah, then he got Valley Fever
stupid projections not thinking a guy would get a debilitating illness
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I believe it was a valid question to ask. Just no one has an answer for it. Unless someone knows Billy.
"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."
"He's chicken curry right now. He'll become beef curry a little later on."
-Keith Smart
But people have thoughts
I think what cuppingmaster and Nick said about pitching was interesting.
Were people raving about Conor Jackson?
People were raving about trading a AAA reliever for a high upside flyer. I hate Conor Jackson and I’d rave about a trade like that today, just cause we can pop relief pitchers out like crazy.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
yeah, they were
At that time, Conor Jackson and Carlos Quentin were in the D-Backs system and a lot of the trade talk here centered around the two of them, Jackson in particular.
Notice that mikev’s response isn’t about possible wrong projections, it’s about Valley Fever. The projections weren’t wrong but no one could predict injury or illness.
Oh, so we're talking far before we traded for him then?
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
um.
Conor Jackson’s ZIPS projection for 2011: .221/.313/.326
Conor Jackson’s for realsies, 2011: .243/.320/.317
I’d say that the projections were pretty damn close. You?
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I'm talking about when he was in the D-Backs organization
The projections went down because he didn’t pan out in Arizona. By the time Beane got him, he was pretty much washed up and his future was part of the “throw a bunch of players against the wall and see how they stick” philosophy.
The question is whether he would have panned out if the Valley Fever hadn’t happened, or whether those projections, WAY BACK WHEN, were wrong. We can never know. What we do know, though, is that Daric Barton pretty much fell apart in 2008 and again in 2011, and no projection system predicted the latter, and few predicted the former.
Well
Jackson had a 3 WAR 2008 and was getting better, and was only 26. Forget projections, would you reasonably expect a 26 year old to continue to improve or at least repeat his performance? I know I would.
Same with Barton. A 25 year old coming off a fantastic season, is that someone you expect to come back and hit .212?
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Jackson was drafted 19th overall by the Dbacks.
He was ranked as the 18th overall prospect in 2006 by BA, which values tools. Likewise, Barton was ranked as the number 48 prospect in 2006, and got was as high as 28 before that. It’s hardly projections that thought these guys would be good, there were lots of scouts and teams who agreed. Prospects are unpredictable by nature.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
I think everyone here is seeking explanations
How about this one?
Notice that there are hardly any position player injuries this year, once the season started? I mean, Mark Ellis and Josh Willingham were both on the DL for pretty much the minimum amount of time.
Maybe the new training regimens keep players healthy at the expense of their power and reflexes.
Or maybe I’m grasping at straws here. mikev, this make any sense?
Better luck, perhaps?
I dunno. Coco Crisp doesn’t break his finger sliding into second base this year, Bobby Crosby doesn’t bulldoze Mark Ellis, Chavez isn’t perpetually injured, etc
This is off the cuff without really doing a bunch of research, but it seemed like a lot of the players had “fluke” injuries, as opposed to something like pulling a hamstring over and over again
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DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
However, I do think that Beane is no longer the best GM in the game.
I think the A’s front office is, oh I dunno, Top 10 maybe, but the fact that more teams have gotten numbers friendly has worked against them and they no longer have the “edge” that they did before, as it were.
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DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
That's Beane's explanation
Based on what he told Michael Lewis years ago: the moment all value inequalities become public, there will be no Moneyball and the A’s won’t have any edge.
Still, it doesn’t explain the wretched position player situation in the A’s organization.
indeed.
i wish I had the answer. if I did I wouldn’t be here posting about it on the internet, I’d have a sweet job working for the a’s.
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DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
But what if the Red Sox offered you twice the salary
to do the same job for them? Would you still work for the A’s?
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
probably not. I love California.
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No, not really.
But from everything I’ve read, isn’t statistical analysis what made Beane a star, and made stars of DePodesta and Ricciardi?
Unless one popular semi-fictional book by Michael Lewis counts as “everything I’ve read”.
The notion that Beane is all about the stats is a gross caricature, embraced by both adherents and detractors. Sure, he was an early adopter, but it was never his be-all and end-all, and plenty of other GMs quickly followed him.
In my opinion what made Beane great (and why he’s less great now) is not that he had better information about what players to seek out, but simply that he was an effective and aggressive dealer. That talent comes largely from his charisma and personal skills, not his stat-headiness.
He deals a lot less now, and almost never chases after the 3-way and 4-way deals that he used to be famous for.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
by iglew on Jul 11, 2011 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
you're on fire today.
Although we can never really be sure what he chases.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
I am Eric Byrnes' hair.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
That's all pretty speculative, though
Remember the recent quote from Beane about how he liked Weeks in college because he was an energy guy who was always cheering and clapping, and the team needed someone like that?
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Of course it's speculative
The fact is that Beane’s reputation rests on the statiistical analysis meme.
I don't think that's a fact at all.
I think it’s a Moneyball-generated myth, and it’s popular both with stat-loving fans who take pride in rooting for the underdog “smart” team that beats the odds and with the traditionalist Joe Morgan types who want to blame statistics for all his mistakes.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
No, it's a fact that Beane's reputation rests on the meme
The meme itself may be a Moneyball-generated myth, but the reputation rests on it.
Weird, I thought Beane's reputation rested on whether or not he did a good job.
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Reputation among certain groups, yes.
Those people are wrong.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I think AN is gonig overboard with how bad it is
When all is said and done, this year we have had an offense severely handicapped by BABIP and therefore is underperfoming. We still have the best staff top to bottom in the game. If we had some BABIP luck fall our way, like, with two players, we’d be singing a different tune.
As for the system sucking, um, all of our first picks in the draft from 04-08 (minus Simmons, who looks like he will get here eventually) are with the team. I’m pretty sure very few other clubs have had that success. There’s plenty of things Beane has done right. The worst thing he did this season was not offer Beltre a 7/130 deal, which we all know cant happen.
all of KCs 1st rounders from 05-09
are on the ML team… or were as of last time we played them
by heartstopper on Jul 11, 2011 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions
03-09 even
I answered elsewhere.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Yay, optimism!
I’m still hopeful that we can finish the season 81-81. That would be awesome.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
We likely don't lure the best scouts and front office talent either
Same reasons as with the players. Again, we have no advantages to speak of. Why should we do better than other teams at anything?
Wait, are we really similar to 20 team financially?
Did not know that.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
This is just false
As I explained above to Nico, the players we acquired were highly regarded by everyone, not just us. Talyor, Wallace, Carter, Cardenas, Anderson, etc were all at least top 80 prospects. Green was a good draft pick at a position of need. As was Weeks. Choice seems to be panning out better than I’d hoped, and he wasn’t an overdraft.
There is no “projection system” that has caused them to fail, what’s caused them to fail is pure bad luck. Players have gotten hurt or just suddenly began to suck for no apparent reason.
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
http://www.domingobeisbol.com/
So it's just a question of waiting for prospects to pan out
ESTRAGON:
(giving up again). Nothing to be done.
VLADIMIR:
(advancing with short, stiff strides, legs wide apart). I’m beginning to come round to that opinion. All my life I’ve tried to put it from me, saying Vladimir, be reasonable, you haven’t yet tried everything. And I resumed the struggle. (He broods, musing on the struggle. Turning to Estragon.) So there you are again.
by richwol1 on Jul 11, 2011 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
What do you suggest?
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
http://www.domingobeisbol.com/
Stadium Article
I wish it wasn’t on facebook so I could read it.
24 is my age 22 is my gauge
by catfishunterSthompson on Jul 11, 2011 12:40 PM PDT reply actions
which stadium article?
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 11, 2011 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions
This one it was in the blue part at the top of the post
24 is my age 22 is my gauge
by catfishunterSthompson on Jul 11, 2011 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions
and when one clicks on your link... it takes one to facebook
some help
by heartstopper on Jul 11, 2011 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions
blocked
my work doesn’t allow social networking.
24 is my age 22 is my gauge
by catfishunterSthompson on Jul 11, 2011 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions
here you go, AN version: http://www.athleticsnation.com/2011/7/6/2263700/attendance-and-hitting#71448531
by AV on Jul 11, 2011 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Thank you
Thank you so much
24 is my age 22 is my gauge
by catfishunterSthompson on Jul 11, 2011 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah sorry about that man
I was trying not to just repost that cuz I initially posted it as a longwinded comment in that fanpost’s thread… I shoulda linked to the AN version for non FB’ers, my badz.
"If we start getting into that sh*t, we might as well get out the plastic sheeting and have an orgy." --Gaijin Suketto
by emperor nobody on Jul 11, 2011 4:51 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
It's all good
It was a very interesting read. While it is sad that Oakland struggles to draw a consistent decently sized crowd, your article reminded me of the pride I have to be one of those faithful fans who live and breath every pitch.
24 is my age 22 is my gauge
by catfishunterSthompson on Jul 12, 2011 8:40 AM PDT up reply actions
what's facebook?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
probably a drug
24 is my age 22 is my gauge
by catfishunterSthompson on Jul 11, 2011 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Damn kids and their damn fads.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
even though theres a blockbuster about to be released
it pretty much proves the failure of Moneyball. for the first time in years, i’ve begin to doubt Beane. it might be time to wash out the FO, owners and all.
It's lonely being the only Warriors fan at UMass :(
No, it's proof of the power of marketing
When the book came out, a lot of people in MLB said things like, “If I had the Big Three, I’d look like a genius too.”
it doesnt so much prove success as
it proves misguidance. advanced analytics within sports is such a swing or miss when it comes to building a team mathematically, especially within baseball and basketball. but as we’ve seen over the past five years is that there is so much more to building a winner than Moneyball.
for instance, remember the year Frank Thomas led the charge with 39 homers and we made the ALCS? There was a moneyball team at its finest. But more importantly, it was a team that gelled perfectly with chemistry. If you remember, correctly, the thing about the A’s that year that was well publicized was their incredible clubhouse unity. Dismembering that team has always been the biggest headscratcher for me.
also, if moneyball was such a sure-fire method, than there was no explanation for trading CarGo. he ran a rookie contract that could have been milked for two seasons, hiking his trade value, and thereafter traded for much, much, more, or, more logically, extended so that we have a superstar.
It's lonely being the only Warriors fan at UMass :(
Analytics and money wins championships.
Dallas mavs.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 11, 2011 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions
analytics, money, and chemistry win championships
the dallas mavs were hardly analytics.
It's lonely being the only Warriors fan at UMass :(
by j-spliff415 on Jul 12, 2011 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions
the Mavs are probably the most analytical team
Cuban loves this stuff and has hired numerous people, including the guy from 82games.com (i believe)
Yes true
Roland beech is his name, iirc. He’s the first quant guy in all of pro sports to sit on the bench as an assistant.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 12, 2011 7:42 PM PDT up reply actions
O/T
I like this picture. Full impulse to first, captain!
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
We have a guy in single-A Vermont named
Zhi-Fang Pan. I am choosing to be excited only for the nickname possibilities. So there’s that, you know, looking on the bright side.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=pan—-001zhi
"Yields falsehood when preceded by its quotation,"
yields falsehood when preceded by its quotation.
Aaron Shipman seems to have great strike-zone judgment, too
79 PAs, 11 Ks and 19 BBs. No power yet to speak of, but he’s 19 and doing pretty well (for someone not named Mike Trout…)
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
I'm excited about Shipman and Lewis
I think they could be the next Ryan Sweeney and Kevin Kouzmanoff. Why did I say that?
Does Trout's arby clock start now?
What if he doesnt play again in the bigs until 2013? Are the Angels actually run worse than us?
Beane >> Reagins
But, when you add money, it’s hard to separate lucky from good.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 11, 2011 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Really?
Are the Angels actually run worse than us?
They acquired Scott Kazmir and Vernon Wells on purpose.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
You're saying Beane's never spent big chunks of his budget on bad players?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Depends
Chavez contract was deserved 6/60+
Dye contract was nice at the time 3/30+
Kendall was well overpaid 12 mil/yr
Holliday was a superstar 10/yr
Kotsay 3/29 mil good defender — overpaid
We’ve had our misses.
We never traded for Wells or Kazmir though
E-Lo only cost us money. Both those guys were traded for players much better than them.
No, but they had much lower upside than Wells or Kazmir
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 12, 2011 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions
Pirates paid a lot of Kendall's salary IIRC
by Billy Frijoles on Jul 12, 2011 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions
No they didn't but they did take back Redman and Rhodes
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 12, 2011 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Pittsburgh did pay part of Kendall's salary.
The trade was arranged so that the A’s paid $1 million each toward Rhodes and Redman’s salary in the current year (ie, 2005) and the Pirates paid the $5 million of Kendall’s salary but only in the final year of the contract (ie, 2007). Apparently that was a better fit for each team’s yearly budget.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Why does Ryan Sweeney not play everyday?
This guy’s average is close to 300 the last three years and yet he rarely plays. He is often referred to as the fourth outfielder. He is by far the best hitter on the team. What did he do to piss off Beane brain?
Not sure about Beane but he pissed me off by not being a very good hitter or healthy player
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 11, 2011 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions
My take on the situation is:
1) the Yankees and the Red Sox have gotten smarter and no longer are willing to throw top tier prospects away for end of the year rentals( or even begginging of the year rentals) and there few if any teams willing to deal a top 30 prospect.
2) The A’s have lacked any real great bargaining chips. Their pitchers have been too young to trade and their hitters have been stone cold. When is the last time they have really had a hitter who was going to be a FA who was hot? This year is par for the course a lot of guys that you could deal but no one you could go to a contender and say " you can throw this guy in the middle of the order and he will get you a championship"
3) It is hard to blame Beane totally for Holliday, the guy hit everywhere but here. If he hit here like he has in St Louis the team would be competitive.
4) I disagree with the assertion that the draft picks should not be included talking about rebuilding or the results of rebuilding. (though it really does not help Beane his drafting is not really inspiring) I would like to see the A’s take a little more of a gamble with their picks. It seems like they settle for a lot of college mid infielders who are ok but but not a lot of upside. It also appears more and more smale market teams might be better off completely tearing down the team and playing for a topo 3-4 pick. But regardless there should be a lot of factors going into a pick and it is one thing to play safe with the pick if that is all the team need to be competitive but to really rebuild I really believe they should have taken more chances. How much better would we be with Trout instead of Grant Greeen?
5. The team is not that bad, if we can get are staff healthy and find a league average offense we could be competitive and going into the season I thought we would be around league average with the new outfield and that Barton would be one of the better hitters….
ogallalabob
Red Sox gave up two very highly touted prospects for Gonzalez.
The difference is they have the money to re-sign the rental player.
Also the Padres had a player who is probably one of the top 5 hitters in the game.
Beane does not have that bargainning chip. Boston also was not really renting him, pretty much locked him up long term. The only players they would want long term are some of are starting pitching which would not be a good move.
ogallalabob
MATT HOLLIDAY IS NOT SMILING AT THE HOME RUN DERBY
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
He had a half a little smile during an interview
and I almost fainted.
If you'll excuse me, all of you, I'm going to go tearily spill my heart out to my only friend, the water heater. --danmerqury
there’s an open thread for the derby. look fanposts.
by AV on Jul 11, 2011 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions
We need a new FP post. This one is over 1,000 and it's not updating unread posts correctly now.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
http://www.athleticsnation.com/2011/7/11/2270824/open-thread-home-run-derby-all-star-festivities
If you'll excuse me, all of you, I'm going to go tearily spill my heart out to my only friend, the water heater. --danmerqury
Thanks BB...nice work.
The BB Era is officially over…was fun while it lasted. In reality it’s just plain luck that is involved…we got the Big 3 and had some excellent role players for a few years so we won. Over. See ya. Who knows where we go now. Prob the same result till they all finally sell.
None of this would have happened if Selig had sold to a group of owners led by Reggie. No way I see Reg putting up with this weak ass shit. BB I used to think you were a genius…nah…just got lucky with some moves and it panned out for a while.
We would have been better off with Wash also..another bone head move by the Genius. I am so over this guy…..whatever.
Oaktown Rules
Wash chose Texas over Oakland.
Beane never decided against him. Wash made that decision for him.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
well, did we really have to interview Wash and Geren to figure that out?
We should have just offered the job to Wash right at the outset. They both were known quantities in our system.
by Billy Frijoles on Jul 12, 2011 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes, or course they were.
But think it through. Suppose Wash prefers Texas over Oakland. Suppose Billy knows that, or if he didn’t already know it, Wash tells him so in the interview.
What would be the point in offering Wash the A’s job first? It just puts him in a position where he has to answer, “Well, if I don’t get the Texas job then I’d say yes, but until I hear back from them I can’t give you a definite answer.”
Therefore there is no reason to offer him the job until Texas makes their choice. Or if you do offer him the job then you don’t announce it publicly.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
being an A's fan must be tough duty these days
they are bad, and it’s a boring, no quick fix kind of bad. They are doing the right thing, though. Sizemore, Weeks, and Carter for Kouz, Ellis, and Barton is a decent first step. Next they need to dump Matsui and get what they can for DDJ and Willingham. Give Taylor a try, and whoever else is kicking around that looks like a maybe for 2012. Conor Jackson if you must. And bring in someone else’s AAAA slugger if you can. Kila Ka’aihue or somebody. Keep Coco. He is a capable CF. And Ryan Sweeney is fine as a reserve outfielder.
The problem is player development. Beane is still very good at spotting pitching talent and plugging holes with cheap, slightly below average field players, But he’s had 10+ years to build a minor league system, and it just hasn’t happened. I think they need to move on at this point. Or else delegate a big part of the FO duties to a GMDM type.
Thank you for posting this Nico.
The conversation ended up being a few hours of good entertainment for me. Much appreciated.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jul 12, 2011 11:00 AM PDT reply actions
I never posted in the A's forum
I like to support the East Bay teams. But most of them are so bad that it was hard to even watch them.
I have never been a big fan of Billy Bean. Mulder, Zito and Hudson never played well in the big games. This theme continues. Whenever they played with the big boys, they just lose and lose ugly excpet for the Giants series. But Giants play down to every team. The difference is they found a way to win.
At least last year and previous teams were not supposed to competitive. Now Angels, Rangers and Mariners are improving. But I don’t see any dominating pitcher on the staff that can carry the team. I can expect to see this team dwelling on the cellar for years to come.
Trade Coco and Fuentes
Assuming that Willingham can actually turn in a stellar second half; offer his arbitration and get 2 draft picks in return. Same with DDJ. I doubt if both of these guys are going to return to the A’s on a 1 year basis. Matsui has been playing in the outfield regularly. Dump him off too. Bailey / Device/ Balfour are probably untouchable for the moment, but please listen on every one else. Clearly I don’t see us competing till 2014. For the past 5 years the season end by the time we reach the All star break.
My (still unpopular) opinion.
It’s not fair to judge a GM at the beginning of the year, and then change that opinion mid season. Either own up and say you misjudged the team, or give the front office credit for putting a possible contender on the field, but getting unlucky. It’s not to rejudge based on what is likely luck, in my humble opinion.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
by travdog6 on Jul 13, 2011 12:24 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Well, if the front office believed the club could win a championship, and were obsessed with it,
maybe the team would have better luck.
You can’t get lucky if you’re down on yourself.
"I heard the reason Geren never played Powell was so he could have someone around to fetch him a cushion."- UrgentMirth
by Gaijin_Suketto on Jul 13, 2011 8:12 AM PDT up reply actions
Billy Beane needs a wingman
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
agree to a certain degree
I do believe the A’s were unlucky (injuries/production). If things broke righrt they could have had a chance to contend in the division, though they clearly were not a favorite at any point to win the division. Even though a person might concede that they had a chance at the start of the season, as a fan you would like to see them get to the point where they are the prohibitive favorite and able to spend and attract a top FA and even retain their top players.
I also think it’s fair to reavaluate the GM, Scouting and the franchise over the last several years to decide what they did right, what they did wrong, what next year looks like and what they should be trying to do. They should have more knowledge and insight then the average fan and spend a lot more time on these issues thne the average fan and if the decisions of drafting, trading and developing the team if these areas always appear to marginal to poor then second guessing is to be expected. At some point when all of the franchise top positional prospects fail to develop (traded for and drafted) then it might be more to it then just unlucky.
ogallalabob
Favorite
though they clearly were not a favorite at any point to win the division
Of the 44 “experts” at ESPN who made predictions before the season, 11 picked the A’s to win the division, and 2 picked them to win the wild card.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
25% of those people thought the A's would win the West?
Doesn’t look like they were a favorite, no.
I doubt even most people on AN figured the A’s would win the West.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Ahhh, neverunderestimate the power of the homer
The fan homer, that is.
Just checked the preseason GOG and by my count 25 ANers picked the A’s to win the AL West and 17 picked Texas. I didn’t see anyone pick the other two teams. I saw one say the A’s would be the Wild Card team.
It was pretty much neck-and-neck for about the first 20 people, then it went heavy toward the A’s.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
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