Midseason Minor League Update: The Resurgence of Michael Taylor
by hero66 on Jun 29, 2011 5:24 PM PDT
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PrintRight now, it is looking like Michael Taylor is back.
His 2010 fall from grace has been well-documented, but it seems that he has finally gotten it together. After a startling power outage last season, Taylor has regained his stroke, as John Sickels noted today. With seven home runs this month, his 2011 line is up to .285/.348/.493. FWIW, that is similar to his line in Triple-A in 2009 with Lehigh Valley, 282/.359/.491. His GB% is down from 47.7% last season to 43.2% this year, and his FB% is up from 23.7% to 28.8%. While some had dismissed his early success this year as a BABIP fluke, the power surge has coincided with a regression to a much more reasonable .320 BABIP.
In short, Michael Taylor looks like he may be the hitter we thought we were getting when we acquired him for Brett Wallace. The A's had better hope so, as the future of the outfield looks pretty bleak and he can potentially be an answer in right field.
We haven't had an update on the rest of the minors in a little while, so as we approach the midway point of the season, I'll give a quick rundown of some of the notable statlines:
Grant Green, SS, AA Midland: .281/.338/.391, 4 homers, 63/22 K/BB in 312 PA (20 errors 68 G)
I was a little sour on Green coming into the year, and all my fears about him have been validated. Right now, it appears that his power from last season was a Cal League mirage, he's still striking out too much for somebody with his profile, and his defense still appears to be shaky at best. The shortstop job is pretty much there for the taking if he we're to finally improve on these things, but that's a big if.
Michael Choice, OF, A+ Stockton: .251/.356/.491, 16 homers, 88/41 K/BB in 334 PA (71 G)
Boy, Yasmani Grandal would look pretty good right now, wouldn't he? I wasn't a fan of the Choice pick and while his power/speed combo is compelling, he still is simply striking out way too much. His plate discipline has looked a lot better than I thought it would, but still, I think his upside in MLB is a line like this, so it's a little deflating to see him doing it in the Cal League instead.
Stephen Parker, 3B, AA Midland: .265/.340/.404, 8 homers, 68/33 K/BB in 321 PA (16 errors in 74 G)
I was fairly high on Parker before the year as his bat had drawn some good reviews, but like Green, his power has not made the transition from the Cal League to the Texas League. Also like Green, he has struggled defensively with 14 errors in 67 G at third, and has made six appearances at first this year. Not good.
Adrian Cardenas, 2B/3B/LF/DH/Chef/Ballboy/Drunk fan/PA Announcer/Usher, AAA Sacramento: .313/.387/.413, 3 homers, 24/30 K/BB in 294 PA (8 errors in 70 G, 26 G at DH)
Cardenas has been discussed ad nauseum on this site already. He is what he is at this point: a good hitter for average who has good patience and plate discipline but is without a defensive home at the moment.
Josh Donaldson, C/3B,, AAA Sacramento: .253/.316/.466, 12 homers, 57/24 K/BB in 275 PA (10 errors in 63 G including 42 at C and 16 at 3B)
I hear he might be better than you think. Donaldson also is what he is: A decent hitter with some pop and some versatility, having played C, 1st, and 3rd before. I wouldn't mind if he took Powell's place on the roster.
Eric Sogard, SS, AAA Sacramento: .294/.380/.404, 4 homers, 31/37 K/BB in 330 PA (17 errors in 71 G including 65 G at SS)
I'm sensing a theme of "meh" here. Another guy who "is what he is" at this point. He's got great discipline, but no power, and he's going to have to learn to play shortstop well if he wants an extended stay in the big leagues.
Fautino De Los Santos, RP, AAA Sacramento: 1.83 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 5.5 BB/9, 8.2 H/9 in 19 IP
Sadly, with Krol hurt, the pitching in the system right now is basically FDLS and AJ Griffin. While I'd like to see the walks go down, FDLS still has the makings of an elite reliever.
Yordy Cabrera, SS, Low-A Burlington: .254/.319/.418, 4 homers, 59/19 K/BB in 213 PA (53 G, 51 at SS)
A personal favorite, Cabrera got off to a pretty hot start but has cooled off considerably. Still, he is showing a varied skill set with 4 homers, 13 doubles, and surprisingly, 14 stolen bases. He showing good pop for a 20 year old in the Midwest League, and power is supposed to be his calling card. As they are with just about every notable hitting prospect in this system, the strikeouts appear to be a major issue. Still, he has good upside. I am shocked that he's playing short, though. I had thought it was a foregone conclusion that he'd be a 3rd baseman. That still may be the case, as he already has 18 errors through 51 games.
Rashun Dixon, OF, A+ Stockton: .255/.346/.407, 7 homers, 60/31 K/BB in 266 PA (64 G)
Still a toolshed, still needs to put the tools together, still just 20 years old in the Cal League.
Anthony Recker (barely knew her), C, AAA Sacramento: .310/.404/.550, 12 homers, 54/36 K/BB in 286 PA (67 G)
Definitely having an impressive year, but I think we should temper our expectations. He is 27 years old and this is his 3rd year in the PCL. However, they are great numbers, and there probably isn't a more frustrating player in baseball to watch hit than Kurt "swing for the downs on every pitch" Suzuki.
Randall Jai Miller, OF, AAA Sacramento: .286/.400/.630, 15 homers, 86/32 K/BB in 230 PA (55 G)
Another guy who's put up video game numbers, albeit at 26, and with an absurdly high BABIP and a ridiculous strikeout rate. I really don't think there's anything to get too excited about here.
AJ Griffin, SP, High-A Stockton: 2.23 ERA, 8.7 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 7.1 H/9 in 92 IP
With Krol and Thomson hurt all year, Griffin is the only good starting pitching prospect the A's have had this season. He tore up the Midwest League, which, as a 23 year-old, he should have done. But he's now had 6 great starts with Stockton, and given that he is still somewhat old for the level, I would like the see the A's promote him to Midland for the second half.
Other guys to watch:
Chad Lewis has gotten off to a good start for short-season Vermont, and John Sickels wrote him up a few days ago. Renato Nunez got a huge bonus and is off to a good start with the DSL A's. I asked Ben Badler about him on Twitter last night and he called his bat "intriguing", while noting that the glove at third needs work. Vicmal De La Cruz is also off to a good start for the DSL club. Aaron Shipman was taken in the 3rd round in last year's draft and has struggled to hit so far in 12 games (4 for the AZL club, 8 in short-season Vermont). The sample size doesn't mean much at this point, though, and he is still a possible 4-tool player. I liked the pick.
Overall, the system really isn't very good, which is not different than what we thought before the season. Green and Parker have disappointed, but if Taylor and Griffin keep it up they could impact the club in a big way as soon as next year.
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Great writeup, hero.
And oh man, how fantastic would it be if Taylor actually came back? He wasn’t hitting for power earlier in the year, but wow, he sure is now.
Agree, terrific writeup -- both entertaining and informative
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Thank you, sirs
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
http://www.domingobeisbol.com/
I know it's been said
but thanks man, great piece.
"-i never said half the things i said." --Yogi Berra
Monday night...
he crushed one off the right center fence against Reno. He was less then spectacular in the field but he certainly made good contact on that at bat.
"-i never said half the things i said." --Yogi Berra
shit, cardenas made 26 errors at DH?
no wonder the a’s don’t think he can play defense!
LOL good catch...fixed
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
http://www.domingobeisbol.com/
Royce Consigli has a 107 wRC+ as a 19 year old in Burlington
Neil Wagner struck everyone in the Texas League and was promoted to Sacramento.
Jermaine Mitchell is 26 but he has a 160 wRC+ in Midland and has major league tools supposedly
Daniel Straily has a 3.41 FIP at Stockton
Josh Whitaker is 22 but is putting up a 153 wRC+ at Burlington.
OK, it sucks overall, but there are a few guys worth following occasionally
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
Exactly
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 29, 2011 6:34 PM PDT up reply actions
I was told that it is redundant to specify.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
That was my view.
I was chastised for it. Told that of course “Burlington” always means Iowa, and the other one is always called “Vermont” and it was stupid to suggest any extra words ever be wasted clarifying.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Man Jermaine Mitchell is having a great year
What are the scouting reports which discuss his major league tools? I know I have heard of him as a potential impact player over the past few years, and it sure does seem like he is finally producing.
On a related note – it sure does frustrate me when I see the same AAAA players at Sacramento… would be great to see Mitchell promoted to see if he can sustain success.
Here's what BA had to say in 2007
… the system’s fastest runner with 70 speed on the 20-80 scouting scale. Unlike many speedsters, he’s no slap hitter. He has powerful legs and a strong frame. He has the plate discipline to wait on his pitch and the swing plane to drive the ball to all fields.
…He’ll need experience and at-bats to adjust against better breaking balls, to translate his raw power into home runs and to hone his baserunning instincts.
…Mitchell could be a star if it all comes together, and his toolsy package makes him look like a fiffh-round steal.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 30, 2011 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions
yes....note the date
2007 – the guy is like 35 years old at AA – he better be hitting.
by oakballnack on Jun 30, 2011 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions
If he were really 35 it would pretty impressive to be hitting that well at AA
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 30, 2011 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions
Hey at least its very positive / optimistic
Someone to root for, and a potential solution for the future A’s OF, even if still unlikely. Not many of those stories in the A’s system at this point.
Lockard said he's on track for a AAA promotion soon and possibly a Sept callup this year
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 30, 2011 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions
He did? Awesome!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
So far, so good for JM...
Small sample size caveats apply, but he’s 3-for-8 with 3BB, 1K in his first two games with 4 SB, 0 CS.
Oakland Athletics * St. Bonaventure Bonnies * Green Bay Packers * Buffalo Sabres * New York Knicks
by RyanFromBonas on Jul 5, 2011 8:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Taylor's not quite out of the woods yet.
He’s currently striking out at the highest rate of his minor league career (20.9%) which on its own, isn’t bad or too alarming but when compared to his rate in his fantastic ‘09 season (14%), it’s a bit high. We should also bear in mind that his numbers this season in AAA, while comparable to his numbers in AAA in ‘09, aren’t that encouraging because it’s two years later, he’s 25, and this is his third season in AAA. You’d expect him to be putting up much better numbers than those numbers of two years ago if he were to regain the prospect status he had.
That said, it’s encouraging to see him hitting for power again after last year’s disastrous results. I wouldn’t get too excited just yet; as we all know, A’s hitting prospects always find a way to disappoint us.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Well yes, we're not read to declare him a superstar or anything
But last year was so terrible and he was so out of whack, so to see his numbers return to what they were previously is at least encouraging, like you said. The strikeouts are alarming, but he seems to be improving as the year goes on, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he improved that too.
Then again, I could have completely jinxed him by posting this. We’ll see.
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
http://www.domingobeisbol.com/
There is also the
“hand/wrist injuries take a year plus to recover to 100%” anecdote. I have no idea if its true or not, but it fits this scenario nicely.
May be a reason to buy low on Dominic Brown, if possible, as well.
I don't think we'll be ready to call him a superstar
until after we’ve traded him to some national league team for Keith Ginter, Milton Bradley, or Matt Holliday. That’s usually how it works….
by oakballnack on Jun 30, 2011 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions
The home runs are certainly nice to see,
But I’m going to be even harsher than lenscrafters was. Even with the recent power surge, we’re still talking a league average PCL performance for a corner OF (at best). Not only are the points being made about Taylor’s age & experience relevant, there is also the league difference to consider when looking at those slash lines (IL vs PCL). Bottom line, he still isn’t even sniffing the success of 2009 yet, when he put up a wRC+ of 173 in AA and 134 in AAA.
"As a rule we disbelieve all the facts and theories for which we have no use."
-Gustave Flaubert
by thinwhiteduke on Jun 30, 2011 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Well
I’m not saying that he’s for sure, 100% all the way back, just that he is getting there. Perhaps, like echerrst said, it really did just take a while for him to recover from his wrist injury, which wouldn’t be surprising. Everything is trending upward, and that’s all you can hope for right now.
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
http://www.domingobeisbol.com/
Well, it's better than the alternative.
Which would be if he’s still hitting like crap in AAA, like he was last year.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
The K rate has improved a lot though since earlier in the year.
I’m not sure where you can find minor league splits by month (now that minorleaguesplits.com is gone), but the last time I had checked his K rate (probably a few weeks ago) it was at 27%.
"I think what baseball projects, and what classical music needs, is the sense that one goes to a live event not to experience greatness, but to experience the possibility of greatness.... Not every game is great but what we go for is the chance that this particular game might be.' —David Lang
by King Richard on Jun 30, 2011 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions
30% in April, 29% in May and 21% in June
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 30, 2011 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions
The bottom line seems to be that he's swinging the bat well right now,
compared to swinging it really badly before. So how good that is remains unknown, but it’s certainly good.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
thanks man
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
http://www.domingobeisbol.com/
As lenscrafters noted in the game thread
12th rounder Xavier Macklin is off to a good start in a SSS in Vermont. I asked Lockard about him and twitter:
haven’t seen him play but he had huge power numbers in college and is supposed to be a good athlete
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
http://www.domingobeisbol.com/
I am curious to see how the new metal bats effect the college player evaluation pre-draft
This year seemed to have an uncanny amount of college pitchers with unbelievable numbers which had the media prospect-rankers salivating. It was supposedly one of the best pitching drafts for top end talent. That said, there are a few studies which show the dramatic fall off for offensive production throughout NCAA baseball this year:
Kettering Study Here
Highlights:
midway through the 2011 season, batting averages have dropped almost to pre-aluminum values. This is very significant. Using the new BBCOR bats, players are not putting the ball into play nearly as frequently as they did last year.
midway through the 2011 season, the number of home runs per game has dropped almost to pre-aluminum values (the lowest number of home runs per game since 1974). This is very significant. Using the new BBCOR bats, players are not hitting home runs with anywhere near the frequency that they did last year.
Does the bat change cause scouts to perceive pitching in the 2011 draft to be the “best ever.” With the A’s taking, a huge percentage of NCAA hitters in the first rounds actually give them additional value when compared to previous drafts? It will be interesting to follow.
I should note
there are some good ERA, HR/game, Runs/game graphs in the study.
That's a very interesting point
But I think that the perception of the pitching had much more to do with their repertoires than their numbers, though good numbers certainly didn’t hurt anybody’s stock.
I don’t have time to read through the entire study right now, but I’ll take a look at it in a little while.
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
http://www.domingobeisbol.com/
Well some pitchers are starting the road back
Arnold Leon struggled through a third of an inning in Arizona the other day while Ian Krol breezed through an easy inning there today. I think Matt Thomson has been pitching out of the Bees bullpen for a while now to build up his arm strength.
I’m also interested to see how Wilfredo Solano handles the move to U.S. this season. It’s only been a handful of games but at least it looks like he’s not been overwhelmed so far.
Speaking of pitchers coming back, what's up with Ynoa?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Last I heard he was listed on the AZL roster and working on a throwing program
It’s been almost a full year now since the TJ surgery which means he’s probably getting close to coming back. But as A’s fans know all too well it’s pretty common for guys to pick up minor arm injuries when they get close to returning and start stretching out their arms. I’d say it’s around 50/50 that we see him throw professional innings this season but that’s not really based on anything concrete.
This is all great info
thanks
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
http://www.domingobeisbol.com/
Great, thx.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
My guess is that he's fat...
fat (in the wallet)… and happy, and we may never see more than a blip on the low minor league radar.
I have enough money to live like a king in my country before the age of 20… and it hurts to throw… remind me what my motivation is again???
He is a dick
house
See what I did there?
Da greatness of Da Rooster - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
He's mighty mighty?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 1, 2011 8:08 AM PDT up reply actions
Just lettin it all hang out
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
http://www.domingobeisbol.com/
Now you just made it dirty
Not that there’s anything wrong with that
Da greatness of Da Rooster - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
Thomsen is on the DL
He pitched once or twice out of the pen before getting hurt again. Apparently the A’s are keeping him in the pen for now due to health concerns.
It appears this ship might have sailed. Matt Thomsen, we hardly knew you….
Hes on a rehab assignment in Arizona now.
I think he will come out of the pen but he will have a chance to start later in the year or next year.
by Rio on Jul 1, 2011 4:10 AM PDT up reply actions
Melissa Lockard tweeted to me that the plan was the bullpen for this year
Although I suppose that could change. He started off injured and only came back for a week or so before getting hurt again so I think there is a lot of concern about his health prospects at this point.
Looks like there was some interesting outfield defense being played in the AZL tonight
A’s prospects managed to hit 7 triples in the game, including two each for recent draftees Bobby Crocker (CF, 4th Round) and Nick Rickles (C, 14th Round)
Why the heck is Bobby Crocker, a high-round college draftee, playing in the AZL?
Is is that crucial that we give Jeff Bercume ABs in Vermont?
Well he was considered still raw coming out of college
It was also mentioned that he a big frame but hadn’t shown much power yet which kind of suggested a Sweeney-like swing that could be sapping his natural power. Maybe the A’s wanted to get him into a developmental setting and start to rework his swing right of the bat.
Honestly, I don’t think which short-season stop a player starts at really means much of anything for a draftees long-term development. Every player is different so I don’t think there is any hard and fast rule on where draftees should start their career.
In this specific instance, it doesn't mean much
But I do believe that the A’s hold prospects back too long in general, and the Crocker case does fit in with this wider trend. And while it doesn’t mean a ton, short-season play does lead directly into the first full-season assignment, so there is a connection there.
For example, if Crocker was performing well in the NY-Penn league, then an assignment to Stockton in 2012 would seem like a natural progression. However, hammering a bunch of 19 year olds in the AZL who can barely locate their fastballs, let alone breaking balls, doesn’t mean much of anything. And you can’t reasonably assume that he could perform capably in the California League based on results in the rookie league. Which means a probable 2012 slot at Burlington, a la Thompson, Whitaker, and Kirby-Jones, three other guys who are too old for their league and wasting their time.
Ehh, I tend to be a bit more patient
Skipping from SS ball to High-A would seem like an aggressive promotion even for someone with success in the NY-Penn league and decidedly abnormal for most non-first round picks. I think starting their first full season in Burlington is fine for college draftees and a reasonable progression. From there, let their performance determine where they go.
For first round and some supplemental picks I could see a really aggressive plan like that, but it seems really unrealistic to treat later draft picks. I guess I’m just more concerned with prospects experience level and development rather than age.
It gives them a chance to work on him more closely than in Vermont.
It is also possible for him and other college draftees in Rookie ball to get a couple weeks of instruction there and then head out to A-ball affiliates. This practice isn’t unusual at all.
by Rio on Jul 1, 2011 4:17 AM PDT up reply actions
Could Crocker be on the move?
He’s still listed on the AZL roster but he hasn’t played since June 30th. Through only 7 games Crocker put up a line of .407/.448/.704. Obviously numbers generally don’t mean much over 7 games but it could be an indication that he is overqualified for the AZL. Of course he could have some minor injury and is just being rested.
AJ Griffin
Just promoted to Midland. The strikeouts are good to see.
He had a big K game at AAA too in a spot start
At age 23, why they are taking it slow with him seems silly to me. Should have left him at AAA for 2 months then bring him to the A’s.
They haven't taken things slow with him at all in terms of promotions
The only reason this seems to be coming up is because of his age. He didn’t start in the minors out of high school so yes, he’s a little older at this stage.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I sure am glad you're not in charge of our minor leagues
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
http://www.domingobeisbol.com/
Yeah because wasting everyones time is so fun
Dude was undermatched for wayyyy too long. This move should have happened a month ago.
Enjoy your island
He hasn’t been as dominant as you seem to imply. Not thatbit changes the argument.
Eh, FIP's of 2.08 at Vancouver last year, 2.33 in Burlington and 2.48 at Stockton this year.
He’s been pretty dominant. That said, I don’t really agree with PL78’s assertion that he was way to advanced for these levels. He’s not a phenom or top prospect, he has no real draft pedigree. He seems right on track, and If he continues to improve, he could potentially see the majors at age 24. Hell, a 13th round draftee making it to the majors at all is impressive.
by NateHST on Jul 2, 2011 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Instead of saying anything more, I'll speak in images
Last of the Ninth - Photography
by Flashfire on Jun 30, 2011 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Peter Griffin
Still languishing in the minors at Class-A Quahog
Da greatness of Da Rooster - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
Our farm system is Gawd Awful
Our most exciting prospects are already 26? My god we seem to turn a heralded amateur into a professional amateur with the best of them. Aside from Taylor I don’t see alot of better days on the horizon.
Hopefully this year’s upcoming fire sale will yield some decent prospects.
"The Few, The Proud, The A's Fan" - UncleLeo
It's the new approach
Stalling players in the Farm so they can produce with the Big Club ages 27-33
by Colorado Fan on Jul 2, 2011 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions
Choice
His plate discipline has been much better the last 15-20 games or so. He struck out 5 times in a game and since then he has done something that has worked. I have been watching the “last 10 games” section on his minor league player page and for a while now it has been around a 20% K rate, 15% walk rate and over 1.000 OPS. There is a chance something has actually changed for the better, but for now it is a SSS. I actually think he could be close to a call up to Midland.
Nunez and De La Cruz have been impressive as 17 year olds in the DSL… De La Cruz has a BB/K ratio above 1 and while Nunez strikes out too much he doe shave 3 HRs already. These guys could be the real deal.
And for what it’s worth, Green claimed he was injured and that may have lead to the power outage. We should see if he picks it up as the year goes on.
I think it's time for Beane to recognize that Eric Kubota has not performed up to par as Scouting Director.
I know that Kubota has a lot of respect in the industry and there’s basically no chance of him leaving under anything but his own volition, but Oakland has struggled in the draft since 2003 and international talent acquisition has basically been nonexistent up until a couple years ago. Obviously, the A’s have to rely more heavily than most teams on their ability to identify and retain amateur talent, and compared to the rest of the majors, they’ve faded into the middle of the pack (or worse) in that category. That’s just not acceptable if the goal is fielding a playoff-caliber roster.
Sonny Gray may or may not pan out, but the A’s had three top-15 picks from 2008-2010 and it looks like maybe one of those guys (Weeks) is capable of contributing at the major league level – and even then, his ceiling is probably a 4 WAR player. Not bad, but not what you’re looking for when you’ve got that kind of opportunity in the draft.
Actually, it’s interesting that the A’s have had fair success with second round picks over the last eight years – Cahill, Suzuki, Ross, Andre Ethier, maybe Cabrera – maybe more so than with first round picks. I think that has a lot to do with the A’s conservatism in the first round, something that has been a problem for a long time. And it’s not getting any better, looking at the extremely college-heavy 2011 draft “bounty.”
RE: college heavy draft bounty
Take a look at the study I referenced above. I wonder if there was good value in all the college hitters taken this year.
If Weeks turns out to be a 4 WAR player
I think that would be a fine return on the #12 pick. If you think that’s “not what you’re looking for” then I think your expectations are too high.
I also think you’re too quick to write off Grant Green. He doesn’t look great right now, but neither did Weeks one year ago.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
4 WAR ceiling is not a 4 WAR player. It's more like a 2-3 WAR player.
See Cliff Pennington and Ryan Sweeney.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 30, 2011 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions
Green's got bigger problems than Weeks
Their Midland offensive numbers are comparable, but Green is not going to be able to hang defensively at SS or even 2B in the majors. That’s the difference between Weeks and Green, and it’s a dealbreaker.
Also, I said that Weeks’s ceiling is 4 WAR – we shouldn’t expect that number year-in and year-out. I think he’ll be a 2.5-3 WAR guy on average. Also note that research on Fangraphs indicated that teams drafting in the 11-15 range in the first round have averaged $17 million of production (based on WAR) from that pick during the years they control that player; taking those 2008-2010 picks with that expectation (I’m putting Choice at no. 10 in this group as well because the 2010 draft was so weak) – do you think that we’ll get $51 million worth of value from Weeks, Green and Choice?
I think it'll be pretty close. That's about 11-12 WAR
Weeks might do that by himself.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 30, 2011 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions
He's going to need to stay a lot healthier than he's been the last few years
If he can do that, he should be able to pull in those numbers. I’m pessimistic on the health front, though.
Green not able to hang on at 2B or 3B?
I think if he would be that bad, he wouldn’t be still playing there in AA. The errors are still high but if it is the only major problem in hs defense, it might be coachable.
by Rio on Jul 1, 2011 4:21 AM PDT up reply actions
Some scouts have said that maybe he could handle center
I think he’s playing short now because all the other options we have in the system are terrible.
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
http://www.domingobeisbol.com/
Green
but Green is not going to be able to hang defensively at SS or even 2B in the majors. That’s the difference between Weeks and Green, and it’s a dealbreaker.
The Kevin Goldstein and Jason [insert name here] discussed Green as a SS, and while they are hesitant to stay he can stick, they say it is possible he can stick. They also mentioned that 2B and/or 3B he could play. I am curious as to why you think he cannot stick at 2B?
His problems come from footwork and consistency.
He has the adequate range for a 2B (and even SS), but he’s just going to commit tons and tons of errors at either position from failing to set himself properly and throw to 1B or 2B. And I don’t think we’re talking about the kind of footwork issues that can be corrected through throwing. The problems are more Knoblauchian than that. Granted, I’ve only seen him play live one (and that was in college), and I’m not a scout, but what I’ve read reinforced what I saw. I think the OF is his eventual destination.
When I saw Sonny Gray's stats,
what jumped out at me was his high BB rate (39 BBs in 107.2 IP in 2011, 48 BBs in 108.2 IP in 2010). Not the kind of numbers you’d expect to see from a 1st round pick.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
The walk rate is a little troubling
But the stuff is there, and if there’s one part of the A’s farm system that I do believe in, it’s Gil Patterson and the A’s minor league pitching coaches. If it’s possible to iron out the mechanics of Gray’s delivery and improve his control, they will probably get it done.
Tim Hudson (another short right hander) is an example of a guy who had high walk rates in college and in the low minors, and who eventually managed to correct it enough to be successful.
Well I love the comps to Huddy, one of my favorite A's pitchers of all time.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
the worst year in the farm
Ughh! Not much to be proud of and no trade wothy prospects. The problem is that a bunch of average players like the A’s already have. Cardenas is another DeJesus without power.
DeJesus has power?
Tell him to use it!
by Pop N' Locktapus on Jun 30, 2011 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions
You've convinced me
Call up taylor, trade dejesus for minor league roster depth.
We’re not getting any comp picks for his sorry ass anyways.
by Billy Frijoles on Jun 30, 2011 11:03 AM PDT reply actions
FG ran an article about him a few days ago.
He’s actually been a bit above average against RHP this year. But against LHP, his OPS is less than half of his career numbers against LHP. His BABIP is also about 70 points lower than his career. Selling him now would be selling stupidly low, and if he has a decent year next year, it probably wouldn’t be hard to collect compensation picks for him.
He's a FA after this year though.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 30, 2011 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions
and therein lies the rub.
So we only have 2 choices:
Keep him for the rest of the year and hope he gains some semblance of a stroke and gains type A or even type B free agent status, or
trade him for some crappy return.
since the first one blocks taylor I would vote for crappy return.
by Billy Frijoles on Jun 30, 2011 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Why do we need Taylor up though?
He clearly hasn’t mastered AAA yet.
My best case – DDJ goes on a tear, gets Type A, and nets the A’s two draft picks.
If he stayed Type B then we are more likely to get compensation picks for him
If he was Type A then teams would be reluctant to give up their 1st rounder for him and DeJesus would be more inclined to accept the arbitration offer.
WHO MADE AN OUT?????????
I’m a bit of a perfectionist.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Damn De La Cruz struck out!
But it is somewhat interesting that as a 17 year old he’s put up a line of .329/.468/.507 through 24 games with a 16/12 BB/K rate. It’s a terribly small sample in a league miles away from the majors but it’s nice to see one of our international signings performing well right off the bat.
Plus the Dominican is an extreme pitchers' league no?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 1, 2011 8:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Anthony Recker (barely knew her)
STILL FUNNY
Da greatness of Da Rooster - RLangford
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
by darooster on Jul 1, 2011 4:50 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
AJ Kirby-Jones
June stats:
.366/.453/.683; 6hr, 13bb, 13k (82 ab)
In his last 10 games he has 7 walks and 1 strikeout… that is impressive for a guy who most of us expected to strikeout at least 30% of the time.
He was awful in April and May so something clearly clicked for him. I’d be curious to hear what happened. Then the organization could apply that to others… That works right?
Wasn't he injured earlier? Maybe he's just getting healthy and spring trained?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 1, 2011 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Does anybody know why Hollingsworth (AA Mid) hasn't played for weeks now but is still on active roster?
Also why is Capra going to extended spring?
Any word on what we got back?
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Jul 1, 2011 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions
AJ Griffin and Ryan Ortiz are making their debut in Midland tonight
Probably the two guys having the best years of our prospects making what many consider the toughest jump in the minors.
Excited to see this.
Maybe we can push out Kurt.
Any word on how good Ortiz is on D?
by Pop N' Locktapus on Jul 1, 2011 6:37 PM PDT up reply actions
I haven't heard too much about his defense
I seem to remember that when he was drafted there were fairly positive reports on his defense but I think they were more along the lines of “he won’t have to be moved off the position” rather than “he’ll be a good defensive catcher”. I haven’t heard any reports since he turned pro but he has had some issues with passed balls.
Griffin's Night is done
Not bad for his first “real” start at Midland. 5 2/3 innings with 3ER. Only gave up 4 hits, but 2 of em were homers: a solo, and a 2-run shot after a walk. Still, he had a 5K/1BB, and held Mike Trout to a 1/3 night.
As of now Ortiz is 1/2 with a double.
by Pop N' Locktapus on Jul 1, 2011 6:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Choice is on a pretty good streak right now
He now has a homer in each of his last 4 games to bring him up to 21 for the season. As for his strikeout issues there has been some positive signs in his month-by-month numbers. Obviously when you look at monthly splits you’re dealing with small sample sizes so any trends should be taken with a grain of salt.
April: 35.8% K-rate
May: 32.5% K-rate
June: 23.1% K-rate
Grandal looks like a good prospect and as a catcher is probably more highly rated than Choice but I don’t think the difference is that great. Everybody is concerned about Choice’s K-rate and 29.3% for the season is high but it’s not that much worse than the 27.7% Grandal posted in the Cal league while being a year older. Grandal had a considerably higher BB-rate than Choice, but Choice provides more power. Grandal is probably the better prospect right now but I don’t think it’s all that unlikely that Choice could end up as the better player.
by OkayJay81 on Jul 5, 2011 9:43 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Good points
I’m still skeptical, but Choice is certainly improving.
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
http://www.domingobeisbol.com/
Plenty of reasons for skepticism for sure
Just pointing out that there are a lot of reasons for optimism as well. Still a long way to go before we find out what type of player Michael Choice is going to be.
Well I think it's clear what type of player he probably will be
It’s an overused comp but I see a lot of Mike Cameron in him, at least offensively. It’s whether or not he realizes that potential.
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
http://www.domingobeisbol.com/
Yea, "type" was probably not the word I should have used
I meant to say we don’t know what caliber of player Choice will be. I agree that we probably have a pretty good idea of the ways he will succeed or fail.
Rashun Dixon hit 2 homers tonight
On fire in his last ten: .364/.450/.727, 4 HR, 5/6 K/BB.
Season line up to .261/.349/.432, 10 HR, 64/34 K/BB
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
http://www.domingobeisbol.com/
Right now Michael Taylor is having a resurgence to the tune of a .194 batting average over his last ten games
.265/.339/.446 on the season.
we should trade him to colorado. he seems to hit well at altitude.
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
holy crap
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
http://www.domingobeisbol.com/
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