The False Pretense Of Moneyball
by Nico on Jun 16, 2011 7:00 AM PDT
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PrintFirst of all, let me clarify that I loved the book Moneyball. It was, and still is, one of my favorite books to read, as it is well-written, is about a passion of mine (baseball and the Oakland A's), and is about a great premise -- that a small market team, unable to compete in dollars with the "big boys," could compete instead by being ahead of the curve and identifying skills that were currently attainable for under market value.
That's all excellent. It just doesn't actually describe Billy Beane's Oakland A's.
The great A's teams of the early 2000s were built on the backs of six players, three pitchers and three position players. The three pitchers, Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito, were all drafted by the A's, and the three position players, Eric Chavez, Miguel Tejada, and Jason Giambi, were also all drafted/signed by the A's.
Certainly, the A's drafted well in the late 1990s; they also had good draft position as the result of not being very good. Regardless, Moneyball is not about being especially good at drafting. Which is good, because lately the A's have shown themselves to be anything but "especially good" at drafting and developing hitters. Overall, even when you factor in pitching and hitting together, you would have to conclude that the A's have been, at best, fine, and that other teams, some with similar payrolls and some with worse draft positions, have been better.
It is misleading to focus on Scott Hatteberg as an example of the A's "identifying and appreciating undervalued assets" just because they saw potential in him as a high-OBP 1Bman when he was being largely overlooked as a failed catcher without a lot of power.
The A's made a great call on Hatteberg, but the ability to find a treasure in someone else's trash is hardly a market the A's have cornered. Are the Texas Rangers not more of a shrewd "moneyball team" for having discovered the extremely high risk, extremely high upside jewel in Josh Hamilton...and the late-blooming slugger Nelson Cruz...and the low on batting average but strong on wOBA Mike Napoli...and having correctly assessed that they could convert two relievers, CJ Wilson and Alexi Ogando, into effective starting pitchers? That's impressive. Hitting a bullseye with Scott Hatteberg is not, in and of itself, the story of a little engine that could better than other engines.
The A's of the early 2000s were the product of a team that drafted and developed players well, and then supplemented its core with a key shrewd acquisition or two. Just like the A's of the late 2000s, the present, and sadly the foreseeable future, are a product of a team that has drafted and developed players poorly, and then supplemented its "lack of core" with more filler -- often in the form of over-the-hill veterans and slightly-above-average OFers.
Moneyball, the movie, is coming out in September, and given the state of the current team I hope its a comedy! But what it really is, quite seriously, is a good idea about a team that isn't really the Oakland A's and a General Manager that isn't really Billy Beane.
Every team hits on undervalued assets from time to time, and more often misses. Good players are cheapest when they're young, and to have good young players on a modest payroll you need to draft and develop well. It's the draft, stupid. I know, that's a lousy premise for a book or a movie.
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So what has happened to Beane's fire?
I’ve read the book. What happened to the table throwing, chair breaking, could not stand to lose GM we used to know? The overhaul of that 2002 team was the stuff of legend. (Freakin’ Twins). Can you imagine if he had pulled off the trade for Youkolis? Maybe it is bad luck, or the law of averages. But it seems like since the book came out, there have been more misses than hits. Just a lot of questionable moves in general. And I still have not forgiven Beane for blowing up the (2008?) A’s, when we were only 8 games out at the break.
by player20 on Jun 16, 2011 7:24 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
The problem
The problem is, I think, that teams have gotten a lot smarter and they come a lot closer to properly valuing players now. You won’’t find a Hatteberg for so cheap etc.
I don’t think Beane has gotten worse as a GM, I just think other GMs have gotten better.
As for the chair throwing and stuff, 1. I believe he always said that was exaggerated and 2. It probably has to do with the fact that he is older and probably calmer now.
Let’s not forget, with all the trouble with the offense, Beane has still been able to find a seemingly unending supply of quality starters and relievers, which seems to be the hardest thing to develop.
I don’t understand how he seems to get all the blame for the offense, yet none of the credit for the pitching.
WordUpThome: GWEN STEPHANIE IS CONFUSING AND MAKES ME UNCOMFORTABLE
He gets more blame than credit nowadays because the team loses more than it wins
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 7:45 AM PDT up reply actions
This
I was just typing out a response but this says it better. Other GMs are definitely much smarter than they used to be and I think in large part because of the publishing of Moneyball. Theo Epstein, Jon Daniels.
The team on the field would be different if Beane could ever figure out why his team seems to have ridiculous health issues. The A’s have tried to fix it but your best asset keeps dropping and dropping. If even two of the A’s starting pitchers remained healthy, I think the A’s would still be in the thick of a terrible division race.
That being said, the offense is terrible and continues to be that way and the team has most definitely failed in producing anything of substance in regards to a hitter since, well, I can’t remember the last one.
by Tyler Bleszinski on Jun 16, 2011 7:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Despite the injuries the pitching isn't really the problem. Outman and Moscoso haven't
allowed that many runs and they even won the Godfrey start. The problem is that the position players are among the worst in baseball. The team as a whole has an amazingly bad 2.3 WAR, and sucks in all phases of the game:
4 Wins Below Average Batting (29th in MLB)
1 Win Below Average Fielding (24th in MLB)
1 Win Below Average Baserunning (29th in MLB)
I don’t think it’s that other teams have caught up to Beane. He was never really ahead of them in the first place. As Nico said, most of the success of the early 2000s teams was due to six players.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 8:02 AM PDT up reply actions
I get your point, but how does:
most of the success of the early 2000s teams was due to six players.
Not apply to every team? It’s called a “core.” Right?
by sleepingcobra on Jun 16, 2011 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions
It applies to every good team, yes....and Beane wasn't ahead of the curve in
acquiring those players. The team acquired them using traditional methods like their being good hitters and pitchers. None was particularly undervalued when they were acquired by Alderson.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, in a sense Hudson was undervalued.
Undervalued by everyone, though. He was a surprise to turn out as well as he did. Not drafted at all out of high school, and went in the sixth round out of college. As opposed to Mulder and Zito, who were first-round picks, #2 and #9 over-all, respectively.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I guess you could argue that Beane didn't hold his height against him
whereas others did
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions
I remember Hudson's debut against the Padres.
First pitch he threw I said “Oh Shit”. I knew right away he was going to be a star. He looked like Andy Ashby with velocity. That late break and movement was deadly. It’s one of my fonder armchair scout memories. I felt the same when I saw Albert Pujols for the first time. I didn’t follow the minors at that time and didn’t know him from Adam. Saw him crush a homer and flick his bat at an outside slider for a solid single. He just had stud written all over him. I called it on Phil Nevin too.
"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me
http://marcel-oehler.marcellosendos.ch/comics/ch/1986/05/19860506.gif
"I Hate SF" - The Chosen One.
Btw, Guerreri was probably my favorite pitcher in the draft.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he turned out better than all of them.
"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me
http://marcel-oehler.marcellosendos.ch/comics/ch/1986/05/19860506.gif
"I Hate SF" - The Chosen One.
Part of the problem is that pitching is both the most expensive asset
and the most volatile. Good hitters are much less likely to get injured all the time — but if you flipped the A’s hitter and pitcher development, they’d be equally unwatchable.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Yeah
and therein lies the issue. If you have to pick one to get by with, which I believe Beane and company believe they HAVE to given their market circumstances, Billy is going to go for pitching every single time. The problem with having to rely on the draft is that the draft is such a gamble. Every single pick becomes a gamble which is why the A’s were trying to change their approach in Moneyball. It clearly didn’t work given the lack of great players the A’s have gotten through the draft.
But Beane has clearly put all his eggs in the pitching basket (with acquiring great defensive players to back them up being a clear focus too).
by Tyler Bleszinski on Jun 16, 2011 8:28 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm not seeing this great defense. A's Team UZR Rankings in MLB
2011 – 24th
2010 – 5th
2009 – 17th
2008 – 5th
2007 – 19th
2006 – 13th
2005 – 9th
2004 – 16th
2003 – 8th
2002 – 23rd
2001 – 10th
2000 – 26th
1999 – 27th
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 8:39 AM PDT up reply actions
I think the goal is to have that great infield defense
which is why Ellis is valued so much here. Why Barton keeps first base even though he’s got no power (that and he gets on base a lot). A lot of the A’s pitchers now are groundball pitchers, at least the young ones like Cahill and Anderson. And I do believe that the A’s had an incredible defense in 2010 which is a big part of the reason the team wound up near the top in ERA.
by Tyler Bleszinski on Jun 16, 2011 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions
If that's the goal, he's not succeeding, even in 2010.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Really
Fifth in UZR isn’t succeeding?
by Tyler Bleszinski on Jun 16, 2011 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions
It's not bad but it's not that great if that's your best year and your
goal is to have a “great” defense. I don’t think anyone’s going to forget Brooks, Belanger, Johnson and Powell because of the 2010 A’s.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Great defense is necessary when
a team lacks any hitting. If a team has great pitching but no defense AND not hitting, you might as well throw the pitching out the window. Those early teams could succeed because they had hitting to go along with the pitching, though our defense was passable.
Moneyball had a built-in excuse
…which was that eventually everything that is undervalued will become properly valued, and there will be nowhere for the “moneyball” GM to turn. At least that’s the excuse. In reality, the “undervalued” assets were, by and large, not undervalued. The college pitcher with great control (Simmons) turned out to be a dud. The college hitters with amazing patience turned out to be unable to hit major league (and in some cases, minor league) pitching. The focus on statistics over scouting meant that Grady Fuson as forced out of a job for recommending Jeremy Bonderman, who was promptly traded to Detroit. Even Beane realized that didn’t work, and Fuson is back with the A’s.
In the book, other GMs scoff at Beane’s “genius,” saying the A’s got lucky with the Big Three and if any of them had the Big Three, their teams would be in contention as well. Well, throw in Giambi and Tejada and they’re right. (And Wash’s brilliance as a teacher of fielding).
What the book showed, and what we do know, is that Beane remains a master of the deal. He can take a Grade C prospect and through trades, wind up with a major leaguer. But the good GMs all do that.
Of course, the college pitcher you mention blew out his shoulder
And we will never know if he was going to be good if he stayed healthy. If Mulder or Zito blew out their shoulder before throwing a major league pitch they would be failed college pitchers silly Beane drafted too. And that’s the point that needs to be stressed out more frequently – A’s need to be healthier. Whether it’s luck or something else, this team will never compete if it keeps losing regulars and prospects to injuries like it has over the past five years.
Not in love with FIP
And you’d have to use xFIP to have validity anyway. I’m going more by what people here were saying about Simmons, which is that he’d have gotten hit very hard in the majors. By the time he went down, nobody was feeling particularly sorry (in terms of losing Simmons as a major league pitcher, I mean).
I'm not entire sure about that
We somehow got Eveland, DiNardo & Smith to have passable seasons. Put a mashing offense behind those 3 and they look a lot better than they are.
The team has ridiculous health issues for a reason:
Billy has found a new ‘undervalued’ metric to work with, which is players with recent serious injuries and/or health problems. IIRC, the first time he tried it was with the Big Hurt, and it worked out great (though most forget that the first half of his season was awful).
Since then, he has traded for or acquired Crisp, DeJesus, Willingham, Conor Jackson, Brandon McCarthy, Ben Sheets, Rich Harden just in the last two years – all after they had lost significant playing time due to injuries or illness.
The team has also held on to numerous pitchers who tried to come back from TJ surgery or other serious problems, like Duke, Outman, FDLS etc.
Even when these players don’t get reinjured, they are often very rusty and take a long time to get back to their personal ceilings (for example, both DeJesus and Jackson).
It’s a crapshoot at best, trying to use injury history to get a bargain. Obviously he must still feel it’s working, but I don’t see it working real well.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jun 16, 2011 9:03 AM PDT up reply actions
It would be a very novel concept
If the team just dumped pitchers who had TJ, especially younger pitchers. League is full of TJ-ed pitchers and recovery rate is near 100%.
It's not just the players you mention though
I mean we’re talking Braden and Anderson too. Two guys who were supposed to be anchors to the rotation in 2011. Throw in Tyson Ross too. It’s just baffling.
Maybe there was something to that PED era and the fact that the A’s didn’t seem to have the same kind of injury rate. Or maybe that’s just me looking for a reason why the new crop seem to get injured all the time.
by Tyler Bleszinski on Jun 16, 2011 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions
Not necessarily baffling
It has been suggested that pitchers no longer use their legs as they once did, that the focus is on arms. And arms and shoulders get hurt (along with other parts of the body if the focus isn’t on leg strength). Everyone knows Tyson Ross will eventually have arm problems.
On the other hand, here we are in mid-June, and (knock on wood) there has not been a single significant injury to any of the A’s position players.
The weird thing is that Ross had an oblique injury
I’m waiting on his elbow/shoulder explosion
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Yeah
Ross essentially pitches while standing upright.
by Tyler Bleszinski on Jun 16, 2011 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions
Side comment...
Anybody else think that Anderson’s current treatment is just putting off the inevitable and that he will eventually need TJ surgery anyway?
Pro-rated at 500 at-bats a year that means that for two years out of the fourteen I played, I never even touched the ball. ~Norm Cash, on his 1,081 career strikeouts
The other side of it
I was told that Roy Halladay kept having health issues year after year, so eventually Toronto sent him down to relearn his pitching motion. I’d hope the A’s would consider that rather than wait for his elbow to eventually give.
Yes if he keeps throwing so many sliders
If he changes his approach I think he could stay health. The question is can he be effective without throwing 30%+ sliders….
If he doesn't come back with mid 90s velo
Then yes. You don’t just throw 95 one year and never touch it the next if you have nothing wrong with you.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jun 16, 2011 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions
He was going hard after Youkilis and Jason Bay in 2003.
If both those guys get here, our history includes a ton more winning, for sure.
I honestly think we’d be in much better shape if we gave Matt Holliday 8/160. Beane’s strength is not signing FA’s, but if we got a superstar and then built around him, we’d be in fantastic shape.
PUJOLS!
Who is with me? Um yeah, everyone except Beane, Wolff and Pujols I’m sure.
by Tyler Bleszinski on Jun 16, 2011 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Seriously. $40M per season.
Wanna bet me he’d turn it down and take $30M from somewhere else?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Agreed
I have no problem allocating 75% of the payroll to one of the top 5 hitters in the game. Holliday was perfect but Pujols is perfect-er.
and he plays third now.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
We have Scott Sizemore though
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions
If there was a $10 mil difference... he might come
Then again, no way in hell would Wolff/Fisher ever offer that. They’ll offer him $15 mil for a one-year contract after his upcoming 10-year contract is up.
"If you wrote something for which someone sent you a check, if you cashed the check and it didn't bounce, and if you then paid the light bill with the money, I consider you talented." —Stephen King
You think so?
10 years, 400 million dollars to play in a shithole and there are massive stadium issues so who knows if a new one is coming
10 years, 300 million dollars to play in a nice stadium where you’re in front of a packed house every day, etc.
I don’t think it matters that much.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Which is the best team that would want Pujols?
Angels? Rangers? Cubs? Which of those would give him $300 million?
If I’m the Yankees I trade Teixeira and go after him of course.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions
I think he stays in StL actually.
Although it would be kinda funny to see him to go the Cubs
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
My friend is a die-hard Cardinals fan
I would really hate to see what he does if Pujols goes to the Cubs.
"If you wrote something for which someone sent you a check, if you cashed the check and it didn't bounce, and if you then paid the light bill with the money, I consider you talented." —Stephen King
The only thing offering Pujols 40 million a season would do.
Is drive up his price somewhere else.
"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me
http://marcel-oehler.marcellosendos.ch/comics/ch/1986/05/19860506.gif
"I Hate SF" - The Chosen One.
Beane and Wolff aren't even going to try
They can’t convince Furcal and Beltre to come here. There’s no way they’re going to even attempt to sign Pujols. The A’s could literally offer Pujols $50 million a season, rename the Overstock.com Coliseum Albert Pujols Park, get Tom Hanks to promise him a role in the next WWII miniseries he does for HBO, have MC Hammer write a new tune about Pujols, have Tupac tell him who murdered him from the grave, promise him a night with Angelina Jolie and I still don’t think he’d come.
by Tyler Bleszinski on Jun 16, 2011 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
What if it was a night with Angelina Jolie AND Christina Hendricks, though?
Don’t tell me that wouldn’t be a clincher.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Hell after Moneyball is released
Beane might be able to pull that off.
by Tyler Bleszinski on Jun 16, 2011 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions
{changes name to Albert Pujols}
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
The way Beane has been making deals lately
The most he might be able to offer the real Pujols is a one-night stand with Alyssa Milano.
"If you wrote something for which someone sent you a check, if you cashed the check and it didn't bounce, and if you then paid the light bill with the money, I consider you talented." —Stephen King
is it bad if I'd take that too?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
I'd take that.
"You can attract a hitter but you can't make him hit" -Lou Wolff
by Geronimo Berroa on Jun 16, 2011 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Not sure I like that match-up.
Those two sound like they’d be more interested in each other than me.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
This is a problem why?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
I'd like to see Tom Hanks play Albert Pujols in a miniseries with a theme song
written by MC Hammer
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions
Well, they couldn't afford Sharks tickets.
And let’s face it, no one wants to watch the 49ers or Raiders.
What if they bought him a house in Texas, so he could establish residency there and avoid state income tax?
They did however, try.
I’m sure they will do their due diligence on him, see what it would take. If he says $500M then the phone call ends. If he says $300M then Lew would really need to sit down with Bud and figure out the stadium thing.
If Pujols goes to the Giants though, we are getting contracted.
If he goes to the Giants or Angels...
that would be very, very tough to stomach.
"If you wrote something for which someone sent you a check, if you cashed the check and it didn't bounce, and if you then paid the light bill with the money, I consider you talented." —Stephen King
It would be character building for sure
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions
Pujols will wind up with
Chicago, New York, Los Angeles or Boston. It’s MLB these days and one of the things that makes the sport really tough to stomach at times.
by Tyler Bleszinski on Jun 16, 2011 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Philly is kinda paying Ryan Howard obscene amounts of money
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Haha, I forgot about Ryan Howard.
But either way, they’d probably have to move a contract or 2 to get Pujols. If it wasn’t for Howard, I wouldn’t put it past them. But I get the feeling he’s too popular to trade.
I don't see it
I think the Cubs are lining up for it and the Angels, gag, are in need of a shot of marketing here in So Cal.
by Tyler Bleszinski on Jun 16, 2011 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions
Cubs have Soriano, Zambrano & other dumb contracts.
Unless Mark Cuban buys them, not happening, they aren’t exactly in a mind blowingly great ballpark either.
I predict he stays in StL.
Pro-rated at 500 at-bats a year that means that for two years out of the fourteen I played, I never even touched the ball. ~Norm Cash, on his 1,081 career strikeouts
I hear they need a solid 4th qtr guy.
Pro-rated at 500 at-bats a year that means that for two years out of the fourteen I played, I never even touched the ball. ~Norm Cash, on his 1,081 career strikeouts
On a tangent...
Isn’t it funny that the Miami NBA team can spend a ton on players but the Miami MLB team is broke? You’d think baseball would be far more popular than basketball, especially there.
Totally agree.
Pro-rated at 500 at-bats a year that means that for two years out of the fourteen I played, I never even touched the ball. ~Norm Cash, on his 1,081 career strikeouts
I think that has more to do with the owner
Jeffrey Loria hates spending money.
"If you wrote something for which someone sent you a check, if you cashed the check and it didn't bounce, and if you then paid the light bill with the money, I consider you talented." —Stephen King
Yeah.
Charlie Finley alienated a lot of fans and potentials fans even with a great team.
Pro-rated at 500 at-bats a year that means that for two years out of the fourteen I played, I never even touched the ball. ~Norm Cash, on his 1,081 career strikeouts
And a donkey
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions
I got to pet that donkey on the nose once.
Pro-rated at 500 at-bats a year that means that for two years out of the fourteen I played, I never even touched the ball. ~Norm Cash, on his 1,081 career strikeouts
Did you wash your hand ever again?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions
Only waited six months. It wasn't that special.
Pro-rated at 500 at-bats a year that means that for two years out of the fourteen I played, I never even touched the ball. ~Norm Cash, on his 1,081 career strikeouts
NY and Boston
already have high-dollar, top-rate first basemen. The Dodgers are a financial disaster, as are the Cubs… so it’ll be interesting.
"If you wrote something for which someone sent you a check, if you cashed the check and it didn't bounce, and if you then paid the light bill with the money, I consider you talented." —Stephen King
Though NY could have Pujols as the DH?
"If you wrote something for which someone sent you a check, if you cashed the check and it didn't bounce, and if you then paid the light bill with the money, I consider you talented." —Stephen King
Maybe this creates an opportunity for the A's, though.
As other teams go after Pujols, they may look to dump salaries or move an already serviceable 1B to make room for him. Maybe the A’s can get a decent player plus a good prospect out of it.
Moscoso, Cramer and Godfrey for Teixiera, straight up
NYY needs pitching, no?
"If you wrote something for which someone sent you a check, if you cashed the check and it didn't bounce, and if you then paid the light bill with the money, I consider you talented." —Stephen King
If we offered all six there's no way they could turn that down
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions
We'd have to take Posada to even it out
"If you wrote something for which someone sent you a check, if you cashed the check and it didn't bounce, and if you then paid the light bill with the money, I consider you talented." —Stephen King
I think you are reaching
If anywhere, he’s going to a Texas team, as that is MLB’s new hyped area.
NYY: Teixiera
BOS: Ade-Gon
LAD: bankrupt
He’s simply not going to those places.
LAA and Cubs
And the Yankees would find a place for him. As the Yankees don’t give a crap. They’ll sign anyone and figure it out later.
by Tyler Bleszinski on Jun 16, 2011 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah
and I’m pretty sure that if the Angels don’t make the playoffs this year, they will bring in Pujols. This market is a star-driven market and with the Dodgers in a state of disarray, the Angels could take control over LA for years to come. They could DH Pujols or Morales.
by Tyler Bleszinski on Jun 16, 2011 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions
I highly doubt Pujols is going to sign on somewhere to be a DH.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Then make Morales DH since he's coming off an injury
any way.
by Tyler Bleszinski on Jun 16, 2011 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions
I think if we got a new stadium and offered him 10/$300MM he would take it.
I also don’t think many teams could afford that deal. We could though, we have the 4th most wealthy owners in MLB.
If the A's want to turn this franchise around,
they’ll need to act like the 4th wealthiest owners at least once. Pujols would be a great time.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Did you miss the part where they wasted their money on Vernon Wells?
The Angels arent as rich as you think.
..and
Scot Kazmir, who they just outright released and still owe $14M.
by sf drift king on Jun 16, 2011 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions
How would they afford him?
They have close to $80 million tied up in 7 players next year. And that doesnt include Abreu’s $9 million vesting option. Add in their FA (Weaver, Kendrick, Morales) and I dont see how they can take on a $20+ million a year player.
Why buy good luggage? You only use it when you travel. - Yogi Berra
by SoCal As Fan on Jun 16, 2011 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions
If they had any brains they'd find a way, but I thought that
about Carl Crawford and they got Wells instead.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions
I think by getting Wells,
they have really f’d themselves for the next 2 years. IF they sign Pujos, you can pretty much bet that Weaver and Kendrick will leave as FA, especially Weaver. He is going to command a huge pay day if his season keeps rolling along like it has.
Why buy good luggage? You only use it when you travel. - Yogi Berra
by SoCal As Fan on Jun 16, 2011 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes, that may be one of the worst trades in recent years
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions
Sadly, they made one of the best trades in recent years
(for them), when they got Haren for crap plus a prospect. Still hating AZ for that trade.
"Never overlook an orchid while searching for a rose" - Buck Showalter
by Philip Christy on Jun 16, 2011 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions
We should have offered twice the crap and prospects
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions
The Yanks dont give a crap
The players union and the league might. With all this talk of realignment and creating parity, I would not be surprised if Pujols was asked to not sign with one of the one of the perennially “A-list” teams if he received an offer.
My sleeper pick: The Orioles.
Why would the Players Union ever ask him to take less money?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions
They wouldnt.
But if he received the same offer from say, the Orioles, then they would lean on him to sign there.
Pujols is not going to make this decision based on the union
He’s going to go where he gets the most money and he can make even more money with endorsements and everything else playing in NY or LA.
by Tyler Bleszinski on Jun 16, 2011 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions
Plus, I don't think he'd go to a crappy team unless he thought they had a bright future very soon.
Maybe the Nats, though?
So we're out then?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions
"Look, Albert, check out this Moose Costco kid"
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Royals would be a fun choice. Homecoming and all that.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions
Astros.
So he can keep hitting bombs off the wall like he did when he broke Brad Lidge.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Actually someone said this above
But in reality I think he either winds up back in St. Louis (he is pretty well entrenched there) or in New York with the Yankees or possibly even the Mets.
by Tyler Bleszinski on Jun 16, 2011 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions
Mets! Wow!
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions
Fielder to the Nats? They're getting
pretty good.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions
They could sell him on the Mouse Tacos kid.
by LoneStranger on Jun 16, 2011 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions
Shit, the A's could get Aramark to do that.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Sell them, or use it to sway players to come here?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Sell them. Under a different name, of course.
What happens in the meat grinder stays in the meat grinder.
Lee was an outlier
Most dudes will just take the most money and run.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jun 16, 2011 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Right, but Albert has the rings, the money, the MVPs etc already
He’s not Teixiera. He simply doesn’t need to be in NY, the press here is so brutal.
But New York is the greatest city in the world, no?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions
Actually, the last offer might make him come.
Probably wouldn’t sign with us, though.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jun 16, 2011 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
You too Blez?
They couldn’t convince them to come here because… THEY GOT MORE MONEY ELSEWHERE
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I can't believe that you still don't get this.
It’s been explained roughly a zillion times.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
don't get me started about that 2008 team
we were only 4.5 games out and 9 games over .500 when the trading began.. and sent the season in a tailspin. Beane decided to blow up that team to start the rebuild and “restock the farm system”. All that to arrive at this point in 2011: one of the worst teams in the league that still can’t hit.
by sf drift king on Jun 16, 2011 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions
And has a low-rated farm system.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Read the book will skip the movie
Time to turn the page for this fan.
it's interesting, I read Moneyball when it first was published
I have always seen it as primarily a business book, not a baseball book. That is, it told the story of how a business in an unequal field can compete by getting ahead of the curve in identifying underexploited resources before others could. The A’s were the case study. Obviously, for this model to keep working you would need to keep ahead of everyone else in identifying new underexploited resources.
The A’s of the early 2000’s were the product, as Nico wrote, of great drafting and developing of players plus adding smart pieces through trades and free agent signings. That is a winning formula for most MLB teams.
Yeah and they admittedly tried an experiment
of drafting nearly exclusively college kids. It clearly didn’t work outside of getting slam dunk guys like Huston Street. You can see what the A’s are trying now and that’s outpacing other teams on the international market, being more willing to add guys who can steal bases, treasuring great defense over offensive ability.
I’m just not sure it’s working, especially if you can’t keep a young pitching group healthy.
by Tyler Bleszinski on Jun 16, 2011 7:54 AM PDT up reply actions
Yep
I gave the book to the CEO of the company I worked for at the time. It was an awesome business book, more than anything else. Though, the Chad Bradford stuff was awesome.
Although Olivo has had a better career than Bradford
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 8:05 AM PDT up reply actions
Right
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 8:11 AM PDT up reply actions
Maybe, but Bradford did have a 2.1 WAR season in 2002
While it took Olivo a few teams and a few years to make any impact at all. I’d say that trade was still a positive for us.
Probably a reasonable trade for both teams, but certainly nothing to laugh at Kenny Williams for
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 8:40 AM PDT up reply actions
If they really wanted to write about Moneyball how about writing about Gene Michael
who identified high OBP players in the early 1990s to turn the Yankees from the laughingstock who had to trade Rickey Henderson to the large market A’s in 1989, who ranked 11th in the AL in attendance in 1992 and couldn’t compete with the Mets in their own city into the most valuable franchise in American sports.
Michael, exploiting the underappreciated OBP statistic, brought in Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Paul O’Neill, Wade Boggs, and Jorge Posada to completely revamp the pitiful Yankees.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
The Yankees' advantage is in not paying much of a price for being wrong
As long as they have enough successes, they can accumulate a huge pile of failures and just ditch them when it’s clear they’re not working out. A Knoblauch or Brown would seriously screw up a franchise like the A’s. The Yankees can just ignore the money they’ve wasted and move on.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Yes, now. But Michael didn't spend his way to success. That's more of a Cashman thing.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 8:12 AM PDT up reply actions
Another example: Drew Henson
“Oh, he’s not the superstar 3B of the future? No problem — let’s get ARod.”
But yes, that was Cashman’s doing.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Drew Henson
has failed as the “of the future” prospect in two high-profile positions: Yankees 3B and Cowboys QB. That… is impressive.
"If you wrote something for which someone sent you a check, if you cashed the check and it didn't bounce, and if you then paid the light bill with the money, I consider you talented." —Stephen King
Yeah, I always wondered wy the Yankees of the late 90's were never pointed to as the model for the early 2000's A's.
Usually the Yankees get too much credit for things. I’m surprised the media missed their chance here. The only explanation I can think of is that the writers who understand OBP and advanced metrics aren’t so slavishly hypnotized by the Yankees, and the writers who ARE Yankees shills don’t understand anything beyond BA, ERA, and W-L.
Funny story
Brian Sabean’s wikipedia credits him with being responsibility for the Yanks signing Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, J.T. Snow, Jorge Posada and Andy Pettitte. Is that even true??? lol
I don't doubt it
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions
wasn't steinbrenner banned from baseball at that time?
which explains how they could get away with it?
Put a bird on it
Yes. They reverted to Bankeedom when he returned
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Nico, your post is spot on, and I think you're being charitable when you say
The A’s made a great call on Hatteberg, but the ability to find a treasure in someone else’s trash is hardly a market the A’s have cornered.
Hatteberg was hardly a great player or even a good player. He was adequate in 2002 and bad in 2003-2005. Probably every World Series winner and loser of the past 20 years has a better “treasure in someone else’s trash” story than Hatteberg.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
This is true
Even though I could argue that the Giants are made up entirely of those players, along with Posey & Belt.
It's a shame that Eric Walker has been largely forgotten
He was the guy who inspired Sandy Alderson and Billy Beane.
The Forgotten Man Of Moneyball, Part 1
The Forgotten Man Of Moneyball, Part 2
A couple of years ago, Walker had this to say.
Re-reading “Winning Baseball” now, after 15 long years and a lot of advances in the field, I am pleased to see that it holds up remarkably well. Throughout the text, I placed in boxed, emphasized text such summary keystone statements as I wanted readers to remember. They were, many of them, quite iconoclastic at the time, though most will today sound quite familiar to anybody who’s been paying attention to baseball over the past decade. Things like:
Winning a seven-game major-league baseball series is much more a matter of luck than inherent ability.
There is a definite relation between runs scored and runs allowed over a stretch of games and games won during that stretch.
Young pitchers’ arms are easily damaged by extended outings.
Virtually all tactical ploys—the sacrifice bunt, the stolen base, the hit-and-run—operate on average to reduce run scoring.
From Double-A on up, minor-league stats mean just as much as major-league stats.
Trade all players by age 29.
No free agents!
And most important of all, on the subject of roster construction:
NOT ALL GIANTS—
JUST NO MIDGETS.
A couple of those things aren't really valid
1) Why not get Barry Bonds, Greg Maddux or Randy Johnson as free agents?
2) Why trade Barry Bonds, Greg Maddux or Randy Johnson by age 29?
3) What difference does it make whether you have a “stars and scrubs” lineup or a “no midget” lineup? In fact isn’t a “stars and scrubs” lineup more stable and easier to upgrade?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 8:24 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes, the "no midgets" lineup is where we are now
And look where it has gotten us.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jun 16, 2011 8:34 AM PDT up reply actions
We have an "all midgets" lineup now
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 8:41 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well, now
But we were built to be a league average offense. We are far from that due to players horribly off from their projections.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jun 16, 2011 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions
They're not that far off their PECOTA projections
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions
I think the idea is that it's very hard to identify the few who'll improve after that age
and for a small team, too big a risk to sign a 30-year-old. And I’d guess that he’s probably imagining that other GMs are too dumb to know this, so you can rip them off by trading a 30-year-old for genuinely good (but undervalued) minor-leaguers.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Branch Rickey was famous for the "better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late" philosophy
But even he didn’t apply it to Stan Musial.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions
It should be "Trade all all average or slightly above average players at 29 but keep the few special players as they are a rare commodity and not easily ever replaced."
"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me
http://marcel-oehler.marcellosendos.ch/comics/ch/1986/05/19860506.gif
"I Hate SF" - The Chosen One.
he's not forgotten
he posts all the time at McCovey Chronicles.
May 29, 2010: Steven Revetria becomes Giants General Manager. The rest is history.
"118 elements, and still no stanfurdium"- carp, paraphrased
Bandwagons are fun- that's why people get on them in the first place.
by natteringnabob on Jun 16, 2011 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions
I quoted his book, The Sinister First Baseman (which is impossible to get anymore)
In a series of 6 AN articles years ago:
http://www.athleticsnation.com/2005/11/21/24051/567
Love the guy
"Oh who am I kidding? The A's and Giants could stage a pillow fight, and I'd still care who wins." -67Marquez
by baseballgirl on Jun 16, 2011 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions
That's a pretty interesting article you wrote
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Funny thing is
Billy doesn’t follow all of these ideas (notably “Trade all players by age 29” and “No free agents!”). With a few exceptions, I think we’d be better off if he did.
Hee
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions
To be fair, I'd say the A's of the 2000's have been at least as successful in the draft as the A's of the 80's and 90's.
They have done FAR better in drafting pitching. As for hitters, name a good hitter Alderson drafted that never had PED issues. Beane’s problem has been hanging on to the few good hitters he’s drafted. But at least he drafted a few. Alderson never drafted a pitcher who was worth anything.
Did Grieve or Chavez have PED issues?
Which good hitters did Beane draft — Swisher, Ethier and Buck?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions
Ok, Gireve had what, 2 good years? And I'll give you Chavez.
And yes, to who Beane drafted. Also, Teahen. That’s 4 more hitters for Beane than pitchers for Alderson.
The wasteland of young A's pitching in the 80s and 90s was truly amazing
The A’s didn’t develop a single pitcher of note between Curt Young and Tim Hudson — that was about 16 years of utter futility. The only exception was Steve Ontiveros, who was constantly hurt, and, arguably, Kevin Tapani, who got traded as a minor-leaguer for Bob Welch.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Codiroli, Mooneyham (from Angels' org, but brought up by A's), Conroy (from Cards, same thing),
Heimueller, Krueger, Otto, Slusarski, van Poppel, Dressendorfer (good but arm fell off), Wengert, Wasdin, Warren…who am I forgetting? Karsay was another guy they traded for as a minor leaguer, and who was good but injured all the time.
The A’s can take some credit for Eric Plunk (yay! a passable setup guy!) but got very little out of Jose Rijo — still, they didn’t draft either of those guys, or Tim Birtsas, FWIW.
Greg Cadaret? 30 IP or whatever by Steve Chittren? It’s astonishing that they became such a dominant franchise for 5 years without ever drafting and developing a single important pitcher, other than Ontiveros, and that’s a stretch due to his health problems.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
#shakesfist
van Poppel
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
And Don Peters and Zancanaro, too!
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Yeah, but he wasn't really any good
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
The problem with the movie Moneyball...
…is that they are using a story that I don’t think was the point of the book. On the surface, sure, how do the A’s compete with a small market team in the world of the Yankees, etc., but to me, the real story of Moneyball, and the one that intrigued me above all else, was the idea that 150 years of baseball research was—how do I put this—wrong.
All of the things we grew up with and took for granted; Player X is so awesome because he’s “clutch” and can choose when to get timely hits, defense doesn’t matter, a long-time scout can look at a high school player and just “know” that he’s going to be the next big thing, it is better for a player to sacrifice bunt than to take his at-bat, on-base percentage doesn’t matter—show me the hits—all of it, is wrong.
That’s what Moneyball sat on its ear. It challenged the likes of Joe Morgan; Morgan hated the book with a passion eclipsing anything I’ve ever seen, and it wasn’t really because of Billy Beane. It was because the book rendered him, at best, useless, and at worse, dead wrong. It pointed out all of the flaws in his nightly commentary, and it gave “average” people a chance to follow the game knowledgeably; we didn’t need old baseball players to tell us who was good, and who would help the team.
Moneyball changed baseball, and that has very little to do with the A’s. A nebulous plot for a movie, to be sure, which is why the movie was made in a different direction. But why I love the book, and love what has happened to baseball over the last ten years, has everything to do with the simple challenge: Everything you thought you knew about baseball is wrong. I was willing to embrace it; most of AN was willing to take a closer look; obviously many people in baseball were not. It was a revolution, and I wish there was a way to portray that on screen.
"Oh who am I kidding? The A's and Giants could stage a pillow fight, and I'd still care who wins." -67Marquez
by baseballgirl on Jun 16, 2011 9:21 AM PDT reply actions 4 recs
You got all of that
from a 30 second clip?
Why buy good luggage? You only use it when you travel. - Yogi Berra
by SoCal As Fan on Jun 16, 2011 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions
This is a splendidly written comment
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Yup. Hell, people on this site still have massive problem with this:
was the idea that 150 years of baseball research was—how do I put this—wrong.
insert random “I know because I watch the games” comment here
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Not quite true
I’ve never seen anyone dispute the value of statistics. The dispute is over the dogmas that have arisen over conclusions drawn by those statistics.
Actually, there are quite a few who dispute the value of statistics,
but you’re right that the larger group is opposed only to the dogmatism.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
It's hard to gauge a movie based on a 2 minute trailer
But, I distinctly remember a part where Beane says “we’ll make history if we win with this team” and another reference to 150 years of baseball scouting being wrong. Just based on that, the subplot of “old baseball analytics sucked” seems alive and well in the movie, it’s just (as you mentioned) a difficult abstraction to portray in a movie.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jun 16, 2011 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions
It simply isn't true that 100 years of scouting were wrong. Lots of people valued OBP
and defense like Branch Rickey and Earl Weaver and Whitey Herzog….and Gene Michael.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
no one quantified though
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jun 16, 2011 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions
No one wrote a book about it, you mean.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
heh, true
how about “a book for normal people” rather than Bill James-ish stuff.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jun 16, 2011 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Tom Boswell wrote a lot about the O's under Weaver
but it was all very old-school “they’re hard-nosed and play the game the right way” kind of stuff, from what I recall.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
For the sake of accuracy,
didn’t the Reds bring Hamilton out of obscurity?
That was a pretty awful trade, considering who the Reds have now.
An offense with Hamilton, Votto AND Bruce? Disgusting. Volquez isnt great either.
Add in Stubbs in CF. That is a great looking team.
With Bailey, Leake and Wood, they would have had enough arms to fill the rotation without Volquez
Volquez 2008: 4.2 WAR. Hamilton 2008: 4.1 WAR
That was a fair trade for both, and really I’ll trade a 23 year old ace potential SP for a 27 year old CF every day of the week.
Hindsight makes it look a LOT better for Texas, obviously
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Even at the time it's better to have the position player than a pitcher.
It made me think that the Reds knew something about Hamilton that they weren’t telling. Hindsight tells me that they didn’t.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah I agree with this
Position players are inherently more valuable than a guy who only plays 30 games a year. See: this current team, for the best example of this. You put all your eggs in Brett Andersons basket, you only get at best, 20-25 good to excellent starts every year. Hamilton helps you every game.
Their value was nearly identical the year after they were traded for each other.
If my choice is a 4 WAR SP that’s 23 or a 4 WAR CF that’s 27, I’m taking the SP and it’s a fairly easy choice.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
I'd take the CF and it would be a fairly easy choice.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions
This is one example where UZR really downplays a position player.
Hamilton’s UZR was awful that year, but seeing as you need 3 years of data, that 4.1 WAR becomes an outlier like Ryan Sweeney’s one, but in reverse.
Its a really silly argument to judge a position player vs a pitcher based off WAR. They are kind of different.
You need 3 years of data to determine true talent level
but that doesn’t change the fact that he wasn’t good that year.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
So Willingham was really awesome that one time?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Apparently.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Wait, are you saying Josh Hamilton's 2008 wasn't good?
Because that is simply false. A 900 OPS over a full season is always considered very excellent.
Oh
well maybe, but he still led MLB in total bases, I think that is more valuable than 28 starts of 5-9 IP with 0-4 runs given up….wouldnt mind reading an article about this actually.
I understand and don't really have a position on this yet.
But I think Mike makes a really good point about age.
I'm strongly against age.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions
Not necessarily with starters, though
It’s a good question: who’s more likely to give you 4 or 5 years of healthy starting: a 23-year old with 1.5 seasons of health in the majors, or a 27-year old with 5 seasons?
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
A stat that measures value of players
hmmmm.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
*A flawed stat
Never forget that UZR really makes WAR wacky sometimes. Ryan Sweeney is not that good at baseball.
And he has a low WAR to prove it
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions
Except when he had that UZR-skewed 4.2 WAR.
His 09 simply was not in the same class as Hamiltons 08. Defense will never ever have the same impact as leading the league in total bases.
Well he was good that one year, just
not before that or since.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions
I think you're saying he couldn't be
expected to keep up that 4 WAR level of play, and I don’t think anyone did expect that. He hasn’t.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions
I think this is true.
You still need one run to win.
by LoneStranger on Jun 16, 2011 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions
But you're almost always going to score at least 1 run per game.
Even the A’s offense, as abysmal as it is, scores in most games. So once you’ve got that first run up, it doesn’t matter if you score another or prevent another.
But you still need that first run.
You can prevent runs for 30 innings, but unless you get that first run, you’ll never win.
by LoneStranger on Jun 16, 2011 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions
flip side
if you don’t prevent runs, you can’t win by scoring that first run.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
I'm not saying it's a 10:1 value or anything.
I imagine it’s something along the lines of 1.1:1 or something small. I have no clue how to begin evaluating it.
by LoneStranger on Jun 16, 2011 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions
But the opposing team also
still needs that first run.
So for them a run scored is more important than a run prevented, too. And thus it evens out.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
One guy hits a solo home run in the top of the 9th.
Another guy brings back a potential game tying home run in the bottom of the 9th.
Which is more valuable?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Sounds like a trick question
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions
Not at all.
One play is a run produced. One play is a run saved.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
I still don't trust it
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions
dude I'm really not smart enough to come up with a trick question.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
so, how does that work on a full season? I really don't
know. Bases loaded, out fielder dives,makes great catch saves at least one run. Next inning outfielder dives makes a great catch, but noone is on base, does he still save a run? Can’t predict the rest of the inning, or does it wait until the inning ends?
by theblackpearl on Jun 16, 2011 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions
Would WPA address that?
Or WPA/LI with leverage built into it?
I really have no idea how you would measure it
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
It's not actual runs, but it's theoretical.
Just like how when a batter hits a double (with no one on), modern metrics give him credit for a fraction of a run. He didn’t get an RBI, and he didn’t come around to score, but on average, a double is worth a certain fraction of a run, and if you add all those up, you can say that the batter contributed 30 runs above average with the bat.
Defense works the same way. If a left fielder makes a catch that is really hard to make, he just saved a fraction of a run, depending on the difficulty of the catch. And over the season, you can tally those fractions up.
A good homerun hitter hits 30+ HR a year
Even the best defender only robs maybe 5 HR a year. Plus, offense is way WAY more consistent.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jun 16, 2011 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions
True, but a good defender can also take away other hits, and prevent runners from advancing.
It’s not just about HR’s.
Tell that to the chicks who dig long balls.
by LoneStranger on Jun 16, 2011 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions
the upper limit on defensive runs saved is like 20 per season
Jose Bautista amassed that in offensive runs in the first month or so. No one ever, or will ever, get to 6-7 WAR with only 2 offensive WAR.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jun 16, 2011 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions
True. But that's not really the point.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
No one's saying the best hitter = the best fielder in terms of total production.
Because like you said below, Bautista already equals the best fielder over a whole season.
But a batter that hits for 10 BRAA is equal to a fielder that accumulates 10 FRAA.
Yeah, it is
but that belies the problem that unless you’re talking about a DH, you have to live with both the offense and defense in one player. Given that constraint, you’re probably better off having more guys like Jack Cust rather than a lineup full of Jack Hannahans.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jun 16, 2011 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Nope.
Not only does UZR take 3 years to stabilize, but it also doesn’t necessarily measure true defense in a small sample.
zomg either you trust it or you don't!
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
What do you mean by "true defense"?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions
How many runs you'd save per season if you played forever
true-talent, as it were.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jun 16, 2011 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Then you definitely need a decent sample, but that's
true with offense also. But I think it’s valid even with one play. Bob got to a ball that 42% of his peers would have gotten to and that play saves .1 runs on average.
That to me is equally valid as saying Bob hit a single and on average that leads to .3 runs.
Both actually happened. Well not really, but they did in the sample world I’ve just created.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes, but UZR is messy.
Between the zones and the way it’s calculated, it’s not perfect, which is why in a small sample, it’s not just representative of his true talent, but it also might not be representative of how he played in that small sample.
So in my example, Bob didn't really make that
play? Or the ball is in between the 42% zone and the 22% zone and the stringer has to make a judgement call? Or the BIS zone differs from the STATS zone so it’s 42% in BIS and 33% in STATS?
Even with all these complications, the play still happened and the calculation is valid.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions
You mean where he says that the calculation
depends on the judgement of stringers?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Wait...that's exactly the point behind WAR.
So you CAN compare pitchers to position players. They’re on the same scale.
Prince Fielder just broke the scale. We may need another one.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'd take the CF
The age of a pitcher doesn’t matter. Some pitchers are great at 23 but burn out by 27 Ipaging Scott Kazmir or Jeremy Bonderman). Some pitchers don’t peak til after 30 (paging Jamie Moyer).
But Hamilton was in his peak years at the time.
Yes, and pitchers can get hurt anytime. Some guy figured that a
starting pitcher has a 39% chance of a DL stint in any given year
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions
and some guys can have a good season at age 27 and never be good again
or get hurt
Point being, you can somewhat reasonably assume that a 23 year old is likely to keep improving — assuming no injuries blah blah blah — while a 27 year old is, as you said, basically at his peak for the next few years.
Given two guys with equal performance, I’ll take the one who is 4 years younger.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
What about Hamiltons unique background though?
He’s always been the second coming of Mickey Mantle and his first year with the Reds really proved that he was going to be legit.
I dunno I’d rather have a 900 OPS CF over 156 G than 25 QSs….but I think its an interesting thing to try and quantify.
To be honest, his background would have turned me off just as much.
I mean, granted it’s a great story and he’s defying all sorts of odds making it back and being awesome and all — but forget about the MVP seasons he has had since coming back and put yourself in 2006 for a second:
“Hey, you remember that dude Hamilton who was the first pick like 7 years ago? So, he’s been a junkie and an alcoholic and hasn’t played in 4 years, but he’s trying to come back and he hurt his knee. You wanna get him?”
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
You mean would I have traded Edinson Volquez for him?
In a second. Would I sign him to a big FA contract after his arb years are up? Not unless I’m the Yankees.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions
No, I mean before that.
Even bothering to give him a chance. 99% of people wouldn’t bother.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Why not bother? It doesn't cost anything to give him
a chance.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions
I think he is the poster boy for a good Rule 5 pick
Already major league ready (i.e. not needing a bunch of minor league time), immensely skilled, and you lose $25,000 when you return him. These are the guys to roll the dice with, not Mike Neu and Ben Copeland.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
What about Ryan Goleski?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
I guess he was a reasonable prospect at the time,
certainly better than Neu or Copeland ever were, but I never saw him play to have much of an opinion about him.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Sickels gave him a C+ in 2006
So yeah, a reasonable prospect but nothing more
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions
No
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions
That's lame, to draft a C+ guy
when you can go “high risk, high upside” with someone you can put on the roster now. Same with Soria, who could have been hidden in the back of the bullpen like J. Santana was.
The Rule 5 is best used for upside, yet the A’s have consistently drafted low ceiling, low risk (and suck).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'm pretty sure our entire drafting premise, pro or amateur is
“avoid suck.”
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jun 16, 2011 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions
And somehow, they've failed at that
"If you wrote something for which someone sent you a check, if you cashed the check and it didn't bounce, and if you then paid the light bill with the money, I consider you talented." —Stephen King
Very good point
Taking a high upside/high risk Rule V draft pick makes a lot of sense because you can always return him.
{Unless you lose the receipt}
Maybe the A’s draft knowing they are careless with receipts.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
A new explanation
Why Beane kept Geren for over four years.
100% agree Nico
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions
I agree Hamilton was the perfect pick
But it was impossible to know he was ML ready. He had played at A- ball the previous year. He made it to AA in 2001 where he put up a .180/.221/.236/.457 line.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
And if he wasn't ML ready you cut him during ST
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions
It definitely isn't something that's happened.
But throwing up a 922 OPS in your rookie year after all that hype really surprised the hell out of me that they would trade a pitcher for him.
Another article I’d like to see: every time a pitcher has been traded for a hitter, who won out. I mean do we feel we won the DDJ/Mazzaro trade? We do, dont we? I have this weird feeling that this happens quite often. Just how often do pitchers who are traded for hitters outperform the hitters?
DDJ and Mazzaro both suck, so not really.
{insert MikeV’s repeated comments about we should have gone after Matt Kemp instead}
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Maybe the Dodgers wanted more than Mazzaro and Marks
for Kemp
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't recall what I proposed but I would have gone after just Kemp
and not Willingham + DDJ.
Granted, this was during the offseason when the Dodgers were having major financial issues (of course, they still are now, but Kemp remembered he was awesome)
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Whatever it was it was probably a good deal
for the A’s, since you probably weren’t talking about Gio, Trevor or Brett and everyone else sucks
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions
I dunno. The only things I remember were wanting to move Kouz and Rajai
Mazzaro, etc.
Of course, this was the offseason. It would have been slightly in our favor, but it was saving LA money and giving them a CF and 3B along with prospects.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
You could have made them an offer they
couldn’t refuse like Green, Sweeney and Barton and it still would have been a good deal
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions
Sure, but they actually had holes on their roster that Rajai and Kouz
could have filled, plus saved them money, plus added Mazzaro/Ross/whatever
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Why not try to acquire undervalued assets like
Scott Hatteberg and Chad Bradford instead and get books and movies made about you? Wouldn’t that be the smarter thing to do?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions
moneyball
sorry nico, i have to disagree with you on a few things. the book, and the club, still stand as examples of trying to find undervalued commodities that are correlated with winning. back in the late 90’s, it was OBP. now, the focus has shifted towards defense and run prevention. at all times, one of the most expensive commodities is pitching. in those senses, billy beane has been consistent.
examples quoted in the book – chad bradford and scott hatteberg, were apt and poignant to those ends. their performance was undervalued by the market for reasons that were not rational.
at the end of the day, i believe that billy beane’s biggest mistake was in focusing on finding ‘value’ in injury prone individuals – that has been a recurring theme that has bit the team on the @ss. but aside from that, one of the grand themes of the book has held true – luck is one of the biggest factors in baseball. whether its in the draft or injuries or “clutch hits”, luck plays a huge part. the A’s had good luck with injuries and the draft in the first half of the 2000s, thereafter not so much. simplistic, maybe. but i can’t bring myself to think that after 4 years of breaking DL records, the club hasn’t done its best to prevent injuries.
by SingaporeA on Jun 16, 2011 9:47 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
It was totally rational not to value Bradford or Hatteberg
Bradford was coming off of major back surgery and Hatteberg was Daric Barton when Barton was still a poor defensive catcher. Most teams have identified two “hidden gems” at that level: Good (not great) players thought to be mediocre players.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
And in the cases of Bradford and Hatteberg they really were mediocre players
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions
I think Hatteberg was better than that,
but not good enough to make him the centerpiece of unique GM brilliance.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
He totalled 3.7 WAR in 4 years with the A's. How do you spin that as anything better than mediocre.
If anything he really sucked.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions
If anything
He was adequate for two years and sucked for two years. Sometimes the way stats are used can cloud the actual output of a player.
by asyouwish33 on Jun 16, 2011 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions
He was adequate in 2002, and sucked for 3 years. I'm not sure which
other year can be reasonably described as “adequate”
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions
Ah the Pickin' Machine
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions
good point
but nobody claimed that BB was unique in finding some good players and get good years from them. they were hardly mediocre. not stars, but certainly decent parts of the team. ultimately, they were good value given the price of a win.
then again, even back then, value had to be tempered with the luck that these players with injury histories didn’t go down again.
Question:
Has anyone actually seen the movie? Or are we all passing judgement on the movie based on a 50 second clip?
Why buy good luggage? You only use it when you travel. - Yogi Berra
I thought we were passing judgment on the book
by OaklandSi on Jun 16, 2011 10:18 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I hated the TV show, but only because it will probably star Tony Danza
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
The graphic novel didn't really work for me
"If you wrote something for which someone sent you a check, if you cashed the check and it didn't bounce, and if you then paid the light bill with the money, I consider you talented." —Stephen King
You don't like Tony Danza?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions
Those 2 facial expressions
are his meal ticket
Why buy good luggage? You only use it when you travel. - Yogi Berra
by SoCal As Fan on Jun 16, 2011 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions
not really
look at BBG’s comment
The problem with the movie Moneyball…
…is that they are using a story that I don’t think was the point of the book. On the surface, sure, how do the A’s compete with a small market team in the world of the Yankees, etc., but to me, the real story of Moneyball, and the one that intrigued me above all else, was the idea that 150 years of baseball research was—how do I put this—wrong.
She is already saying the movie has the wrong premise. But watching the full trailer, I dont think that is the case.
Why buy good luggage? You only use it when you travel. - Yogi Berra
by SoCal As Fan on Jun 16, 2011 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions
Youth... the undervalued commodity
Our teams from the late 90s onward were very young and healthy. Their talent was top notch between Gaimbi, Tejada, yes Chavez, and our Big 3.
One of the few paradigms that Beane deals from today is getting undervalued players coming off of injury.
The focus should have never gotten away from drafting and developing talent.
I think we are screwed for a long time.
"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King
by Gerard on Jun 16, 2011 9:56 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
"Phone home..."
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Scott Hatteberg
has to be pinching himself, I mean they made a movie and Scott F-ing Hatteberg is one of the main people in the story for Chrissakes.
"If we start getting into that sh*t, we might as well get out the plastic sheeting and have an orgy." --Gaijin Suketto
by emperor nobody on Jun 16, 2011 10:37 AM PDT reply actions
I bet they do.
I’m really hoping for one of those credit styles where they describe what happened to the people in real life after the time frame of the movie.
by LoneStranger on Jun 16, 2011 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions
Miguel Olivo and Carlos Pena did
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions
What would be awesome is to learn that Jeremy Brown
now works at Macy’s selling jeans.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Hee
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions
He'd most likely be on So You Think You Can Dance.
Cause you kind of have to be a star to dance with them.
by LoneStranger on Jun 16, 2011 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions
Who on DWTS is actually a star, though?
They’re mostly has-beens.
Oh, and last night the wife was watching SYTYCD. There’s this one judge, who was wearing a red dress, that made me want to cut her voice box out with a rusty spoon.
Most of them are stars to some extent.
Not all of them are necessarily mainstream/cross-all-borders stars, but are stars in their niche. I think that’s one of the points of the show; get stars from all over and the fans from those niches will tune in.
by LoneStranger on Jun 16, 2011 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions
Jiffyland
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jun 16, 2011 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Political Train-wreck?
She’s listed as a “Teenage Activist.” I think she brings both Palin supporters and naysayers. I don’t think they cared which, or even thought that she’d last until near the end. Reading Wikipedia, wow, she apparently was continually voted through by the fans.Sounds like they picked a good niche.
by LoneStranger on Jun 16, 2011 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions
Oh, and she was a political tabloid star. :)
by LoneStranger on Jun 16, 2011 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions
I'll grant you that she has name recognition. But she is hardly a star at anything.
The same can be said for Paris Hilton, or the Kardashians… there are plenty of people who are famous simply for being famous.
Aren't Hilton and the Kardashians reality show stars?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Yea, well, you're using a different term for star....
“Someone who is respected and admired for something they can do” whereas the show uses “Someone who people will recognize and hopefully give a shit about one way or another.”
by LoneStranger on Jun 16, 2011 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Being famous simply for being famous
is exactly what being a “star” is.
There are plenty of very talented people who are not stars, plenty of untalented people who are.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Yea. Pretty much.
But it would say things like “Scott Hatteberg later sucked and now works in the Athletics front office.”
by LoneStranger on Jun 16, 2011 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Loaded for me
And the coliseum was packed that night against the Royals. I guess winning does help.
by asyouwish33 on Jun 16, 2011 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions
not working for me either
but i think it might be my work blocking some things.. thanks i’ll check it out when i get home
-Dan
Can't find it on YT but that link you posted worked on my CPU.
Gives me chills watching it. Packed house, even Mt. Davis.
"You can attract a hitter but you can't make him hit" -Lou Wolff
by Geronimo Berroa on Jun 16, 2011 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions
I did notice in the video that there was Howe, Quade, Washington, and I don’t know when Francona was here, but that was a lot of decent managers that Billy could have picked from.
by Slide Giambi on Jun 16, 2011 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions
Francona was 2003
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions
Try this link instead
your link wasn’t working for me either, but this one did.
Still remember watching that one at a divy Port Angeles hotel as my then GF, now wife were on our way to backpacking in the Olympics. Fortunately, ESPN was carrying the game and the hotel carried ESPN. We got there just in time to catch the eighth and ninth inning.
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Jun 16, 2011 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions
Your link isn't working. For me at least.
"You can attract a hitter but you can't make him hit" -Lou Wolff
by Geronimo Berroa on Jun 16, 2011 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions
No, you must have the highlight video called, "The 2011 A's in the Field"
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Here's another link
(gotta disable AdBlock to get the videos to load, at least on Firefox)
by whiteshoes40 on Jun 16, 2011 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions
Sweetest Video Ever
"You can attract a hitter but you can't make him hit" -Lou Wolff
by Geronimo Berroa on Jun 16, 2011 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions
The A's record speaks for itself
Give Beane credit for recognizing the value of on-base percentage and slugging percentage, while other GM’s where focusing on batting average and homeruns. That did give the A’s a few years of advantage vs other teams. But other teams quickly caught up, and that apparently was the entire arsenal of Beane’s insight and bag of tricks. His shift to focusing on defense was just stupid. Defense is nice, but it doesn’t lead to wins when you sacrifice offense (on a massive scale) to achieve it.
Now the stupid continual process of trading veteran stars for multiple young pitchers, and then hiring aged over-the-hill hitters who are attempting to make their “last stand” has caught up with them. It’s a stupid strategy, and now everybody knows it.
I just don't think it's accurate that the A's success was due to
“recognizing the value of on-base percentage and slugging percentage, while other GM’s where focusing on batting average and homeruns.” Giambi, Chavez, and Tejada hit plenty of homeruns; they were drafted/signed as great hitters, period and any team would have signed them knowing what they would become
Hatteberg was no more than a good complementary piece if you have a few stars around him. Bradford was exactly what the A’s knew was overvalued: a middle reliever.
The A’s drafted and developed three star pitchers and three star position players. That’s why they were great. And they have not shown the ability to do that over time. Since the Moneyball years, the best hitter they’ve developed is Nick Swisher and he’s “fine” — most teams in that time have developed a hitter better than Swisher.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Absolutely 100% agree
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions
We talk about how other GM's caught up to Beane in signing FA's, but that Beane hasn't done well in the draft.
Isn’t it possible that other GM’s have figured him out there too? Maybe the guys he wants to draft are getting taken before he can grab them.
Personally, I think he should forget about the guys he wants and concentrate on the guys other teams want. Draft them, develop them for a year or two, and then trade them for guys you want. This has the added advantage of letting you evaluate players with some minor league experience, so they’re less risky than draft picks. And since the A’s are good at developing pitchers, concentrate on drafting the best pitchers you can find in the early rounds of the draft. Draft hitters later on just to fill out rosters, then trade the pitchers down the line for hitters.
I haven’t heard anyone ask why Billy still employs the scouts that scout hitters. When the draft happens, Billy probably hasn’t seen more than a couple guys in person, if any. If they have a top ten pick, he may have seen them, if not he relies only on his scouts. If he is not getting results, why are those scouts still in charge?
by Slide Giambi on Jun 16, 2011 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions
First, when I read the book, I did not think this was really a baseball book. I thought it was a more statistics and financial management book. Second, the thing that kind of drives me nuts is that “people” think that Billy was the one that decided to write the book, and he was the one that said I need a movie made about myself. He didn’t ask to be put on a pedestal, he didn’t commision the book. Lewis, lives in the area, and he writes books on subjetcs where he sees people are doing things differently than the what the market dictates. If you read the Big Short, it reminds me of moneyball in the sense that there were a few people doing things diffrent than everyone else, and he wanted to know why. I don’t think when Billy told lewis he could sit in on the season that he was going to cause some cosmic shift in baseball and everyone would now think he was a genius.
Finally, I hate how people think that Moneyball equals on base percentage.
Moneyball doesn't equal on base percentage. It equals taking a lot of pitches and still not getting on base.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions
The book originally wasn't supposed to focus on Beane.
It’s just that when Lewis started doing his interviews and research, he found that there was a compelling story there that would help the flow of the book.
by LoneStranger on Jun 16, 2011 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions
You mean you want to relive the Game 5 losses over and over again?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions
I want to go to the bar in Boston and shadow Hudson.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Or locked him in his hotel room
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions
I want to have kept Giambi and Tejada and sacrificed Hatteberg, Crosby and Kendall
and Kotsay
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Hee
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Great write-up, btw.
Pro-rated at 500 at-bats a year that means that for two years out of the fourteen I played, I never even touched the ball. ~Norm Cash, on his 1,081 career strikeouts
Michael Lewis is a wonderful writer, and I love his books.
But I think people need to better recognize that fact vs fiction is not a strictly black-and-white thing. No, Moneyball is not a fictional novel — it is indeed based on real life — but there’s a whole lot of “story” there. Lewis loves story. To read Moneyball as an accurate and complete picture of the A’s and MLB marketplace at the time I think is a mistake.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Does it paint a more flattering picture of Beane's abilities and importance than is warranted
by his actual job performance?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't think it's more or less flattering,
it just emphasizes certain things heavily while ignoring others that are also very important.
I do think it is more unflattering than warranted to several characters who are contrasted with Beane (eg, Williams).
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Well, this'll be fun
@susanslusser
Susan Slusser
Matsui will play right field when he gets interleague starts next week. #Athletics
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
FIRE BOB MELVIN
I thought RF was the hardest position for him to decide on each day. Now he’s making the decision a week ahead of time?
The players write the lineup
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm not sure I like this players' manager concept
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jun 16, 2011 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions
This is going to be worse than Vlad being in RF in the WS
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jun 16, 2011 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions
Actually, it could be
At least Cust can move. Matsui is practically a thinner Powell in terms of speed.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jun 16, 2011 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions
Is there such a thing as a thicker Powell?
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
It's the hardest position for him to figure out because you put the worst player there.
And….look at this team.
by LoneStranger on Jun 16, 2011 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Is this considered "communicating"?
"You can attract a hitter but you can't make him hit" -Lou Wolff
by Geronimo Berroa on Jun 16, 2011 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Someone has kids!
The thingamajigger is up and away!!!
And Another
@JaneMLB
Jane Lee
Melvin says Rosales will get a start at third base on Saturday against #Giants’
Sanchez.
"You can attract a hitter but you can't make him hit" -Lou Wolff
by Geronimo Berroa on Jun 16, 2011 11:54 AM PDT reply actions
Anyone else not getting the audio stream of the game yet?
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
I don't know if I disagree about Beane...
But I disagree if part of your argument is that good teams draft well. I think “drafting well” and signing young elite foreign players is COMPLETELY OVERRATED. Not that it isn’t awesome when my team doesn’t, but I think relying on that as a strategy for producing a team seems to me to more of a crapshoot than anything else- considerably more than looking for market inefficiencies in free agent players. Everybody says “But oh, look at the Rays!” and I think that is easy to say now, but I doubt that will be consistently true for the next 5, 10, or 15 years. Every good baseball team can retroactively say they drafted well, the problem is that there is no consistency in the draft. The baseball draft is easily the most crapshoot of a draft of any of the big three professional sports (I don’t know anything about hockey). I don’t know of any team, front office, person, or system that is able to consistently and especially historically consistently produce great draft results. I think focusing your energy, time, and money as a general manager can produce more wins over the long run if you are smart about valuing what you can quantify and hoping and praying that every now and then you hit the lottery on the draft- or someone needs to develop and actual method of evaluating prospects that yields actual quantifiable results.
I don't think it's something the A's can magically do (I wish they could)
I just think it’s something they have to do to succeed, and it’s what they did the last time they succeeded.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Well, it works even better if your replace "draft better"
with “win more games”. I mean, if you want to talk about effective but unimplementable strategies.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I think they've got lucky in the draft before.
But I agree, I think they need to get lucky again.
by Max Hartman on Jun 17, 2011 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions
I'd say the Braves have been able to consistently produce good draft results without having
high draft position….at least for the past 20 years or so.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 16, 2011 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions
How many picks have the Braves or any other team made in the last 20 years?
Seriously I don’t know, probably between 500-700? It’s often hard to predict the future success of a hitter after 500-700 at bats- how much of what they did was attributable to skill, how much to luck. I think over any 20 year period one out of the 30 teams will have “drafted best” but I don’t know if this is indicative of a “system” or just statistical noise.
I know a lot of statistically minded people think that an important strategy with regards to the draft is to stockpile compensatory picks- and sure this will work for some teams some times. But also buying more lottery tickets will sometimes make you rich. I don’t think spending money on the lottery is sound economic advice, just as I don’t think lots of draft picks (by itself) will over time result in a consistently successful baseball team. I think drafts, probably in all sports but mostly in baseball, are over rated because there is so much luck involved. I’m not saying it’s bad, I just don’t think teams should count on it. I think getting a lottery ticket when a free agent skips town is pretty much a shitty deal.
by Max Hartman on Jun 17, 2011 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions
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