After a dramatic week, and somehow pulling off a split in the four game series against the Angels, I'm sure everyone on the A's is hoping for a smooth, uneventful beatdown of the approximately last place Orioles (they are in a virtual tie with Toronto). You might point out that the A's are in last place as well, and with a worse record than Baltimore, but the Pythagorean records tell a much different story -- the Orioles have been significantly outscored this season while the A's have actually slightly outscored their opponents. Could that gap between the Oakland's expected record and their true record be due to Geren's mismanagement? (and maybe a little bit from that 14-0 blowout last week)

Links

• Probable pitchers
• Score your last GOG
• I've got scores compiled up through GOG #10, or we could get paris7 to post the more up-to-date list.

GOG 2011 #18 -- Migratory Birds Visit Oakland

Long questions ahead...

UPDATE -- scores and results added!

1. Predict the series outcome. [3 points] 3-0 Oakland!
2. After half the Oakland starting staff bit the dust last week, Outman and Moscoso came to the rescue with a pair of quality starts. According to Bill James' Game Score, Moscoso (66) narrowly beat Outman (62). Which of these two pitchers throws more innings against the Orioles? Who allows fewer earned runs? Who strikes out more hitters? [1 point each] Outman for all
3. So far this season, Chris Tillman has been stingy with the home runs, giving up only 2 in 43.2 innings (0.41 HR/9). You might think this is because he is an extreme groundballer, but actually he is a flyball pitcher (39% career GB%) who happens to be sporting a totally ridiculous and unsustainable 2.9 HR/FB percentage (i.e. only 3 percent of the flyballs he allowed this year have gone over the fence). So I'm hoping for a lot of regression from Tillman. On the other hand, he'll be throwing a night game in Oakland. Do the A's hit any home runs off Tillman? [1 point] no, of course not
4. Some people are disappointed with Matt Wieters because he's not hitting like Jose Bautista, but he has quietly been one of the more valuable catchers in baseball, with solid hitting and excellent defense (to the extent that we know how to measure catcher defense). Predict Wieters' PA, H, RBI [2 points each]. Does he allow any passed balls? [1 point] 8 PA, 3 H, 0 RBI, no passed balls
5. How many innings pitched and earned runs for Fuentes? How about for Balfour? [2 points each, 8 possible] Finally, does Andrew Bailey make an appearance in the series? [1 point] 2 IP, 0 ER for Fuentes; 2 IP, 0 ER for Balfour; Bailey does pitch
6. Fangraphs recently added Mitchel Lichtman's Ultimate Base Running (UBR) stat. So far, the Oakland team leader is Mark Ellis, who has been worth +0.4 runs on the basepaths. Team stolen base leader (by a huge margin) Coco Crisp has a UBR of only +0.1 runs, probably because he has been caught stealing five times. How many Oakland stolen bases for the series? How many Athletics get caught stealing? [2 points each] 3 SB, 0 CS
7. Daric Barton's complete lack of power (.063 ISO -- that's below Juan Pierre's career mark!!) has been a major drag on his value this season. On top of it, he's sporting an unlucky .254 BABIP (especially unlucky because his line drive percentage is a solid 19%) which is dragging down his batting average. Predict Barton's H, BB, and XBH. [2 points each] 3 H, 2 BB, 0 XBH

The series starts tonight at 7:05. Post your guesses!

Results

Here are the standings, through GOG #18...