The Art Of Stealing Home
by Nico on May 14, 2011 8:07 AM PDT
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Stealing home is a lot like stealing six garments from a department store: It seems like a better idea until you get caught. Whether last night's attempt by Coco Crisp was a good idea or a bad idea, those of you who have bemoaned the A's approach of "trying to draw walks" have to admit that at the very least, the A's weren't waiting around.
And while Crisp's attempt would have made more sense had the batter been Kevin Kouzmanoff or Cliff Pennington than Conor Jackson, batting against a LHP fastball pitcher who has scuffled all season, let's not forget that Jackson is only one of the A's better hitters, not one of the league's better hitters. It wasn't Evan Longoria at the plate, or Robinson Cano, or Adrian Gonzalez. It was Conor Jackson.
But this particular post isn't about whether Coco's derring-do was done at the right time. What follows is my analysis of how to steal home if you're going to do it. (Next week I'll offer Mike Leake tips about how to shoplift if you're determined to avoid paying for your shirts.)
There are two ways a steal of home attempt can be successful. One is that the element of surprise flusters the pitcher so much that in his haste to react he balks or throws the pitch away. Unfortunately for Crisp, the A's wound up relying on this in order to tie the game in the 8th inning last night, and Matt Thornton did not comply.
The other way an attempt can succeed is that the runner can literally beat the pitch to home plate, and here is where Coco failed. In order for this to happen, you need to get about a 40 foot walking lead off the bag at 3B and be literally halfway to the plate by the time the pitcher commits to his windup, and/or you need to gauge correctly that the pitcher's windup is so slow that by the time he commits to it he cannot deliver the pitch fast enough to stop you from beating the "throw".
Last night, Coco got about a 25-30 foot lead, and only about a step towards a "walking lead" by the time Thornton actually started the windup. Then Thornton's windup was not especially deliberate. That combination allowed Thornton to deliver the pitch well ahead of Coco's arrival to the plate, meaning that Crisp's avenue for success relied on the pitch being wild, or at least outside to where A.J. Pierzynski would have to reach all the way across the plate to make the tag.
What I would have liked to see, more than anything, last night was that if Crisp was going to go for it -- and let's face it, the A's have struggled enough to score runs this season that you have to at least applaud the chutzpah behind just flat out going for it -- the "going for it" should have included bouncing out to a 40 foot walking lead and banking on the fact that Thornton wasn't paying enough real attention to him to step off or put on a play at 3B.
That precocious and "dangerous" lead is part of the derring-do, and is the part that ups your odds of success tremendously -- because now you have a chance to flat out beat the pitch home even if it isn't wild, even if the pitcher doesn't balk.
My main criticism of the attempt last night wasn't the timing; it was just the execution. Mike Leake: Bad idea, badly executed. Coco Crisp: Cool idea, just a bit poorly executed.
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Coco tweeted basically the same thing
You:
“going for it” should have included bouncing out to a 40 foot walking lead and banking on the fact that Thornton wasn’t paying enough real attention to him to step off or put on a play at 3B.
Coco:
@Coco_Crisp
Covelli Crisp
close but no cigar… Dag nab it! If don’t hesitate I’m in there easy smh. I’m so upset! But i would do it again just without hesitating
"Hey anyone can join in...as long as they talk about me." - Mr. Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
There you go.
My criticism, there, is that when you hesitate, you then need to stop. Try it the next pitch.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
and this tweet from him later...
@Coco_Crisp
Covelli Crisp
i should have bounced out to a 40 foot walking lead and banked on the fact that Thorton
wasn’t paying enough real attention to me to step off or put on a play at 3B. Dag Nab it!
I got nothin'
by OptimistPrime on May 14, 2011 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
still later
@Coco_Crisp
Covelli Crisp
It wasn’t the timing; it was just the execution. Gotta love #Nico. No homo.
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
Coco is one of my favorite players
I like seeing him fired up about this.
by Oaktown Shutout on May 14, 2011 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions
It seems just a probability thing to me.
With 2 outs and count 0-1, say Connor might be say an expected .250 hitting in that count. CoCo needs to make it only 1 in 4 times for it to be break even; doesn’t seem unreasonable to me at all that he gives it a go.
I was more upset that Geren pinch-hit
Jackson for Sweeney with 2 outs, instead of pinch-hitting Jackson for Barton with one out. (and yes, if he wants Barton to work his way out of his batting issues, how about dropping him way down in the order?)
But all that said, I think Coco would have made it had he not hesitated. You could see that little stutter step clearly from the value deck.
by OaklandSi on May 14, 2011 8:48 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
On the pinch hitting,
for his career Barton hits LHPs as well or better than he hits RHPs, whereas in both the majors and minors Sweeney has struggled a lot to hit LHPs. So I understand the reasoning there.
Plus, Barton may be scuffling but it’s been a bit deceiving: Last night’s 0 for 4 was a good example in that he hit two balls right on the screws with nothing to show for it. Not that he’s hitting well, but he has hit in pretty poor luck too that has made a bad start look worse.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on May 14, 2011 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
for their whole careers, yes that's true
how have they fared vs. left-handed pitchers lately? also, it wouldn’t have come up as an issue if Barton had been hitting lower in the order.
Another thing about stealing home
It’s dangerous to do it on your own. I stole home a number of times, but on this one occasion it turned out to be a pretty risky play – and I don’t mean it in a run-expectancy sense.
We had a thing where if I were on third and there were two outs and the pitcher went to a wind-up, I would give a sign to our third base coach, showing whether I felt confident about making it. So, I did, as the third baseman was not holding me real tight and the pitcher had a nice, long wind-up.
The third-base coach then flashed the steal-home sign, for which we back then did not require a return sign from a batter. I danced off and broke for home as soon as the pitcher’s left foot moved. I had him beaten easily, I remember thinking, for when I managed to accelerate to full speed and cover more than half a distance to home, his body was only starting the forward part of the motion.
I also remember seeing my batter faking the swing, which I thought to be a great idea – this way he was keeping the catcher honest and would not let him come forward to catch the ball. And as long as the catcher would be in the catcher’s box at the time that the ball enters his glove, they had no chance of getting me, as I was preparing for the slide on the inside part of the third-base line.
Andrej, our #2 hitter, made a really good fake. He cocked, then twisted his hips as he thrust the bat towards the ball, waiting for the last possible moment to check his swing.
Only – he never checked his swing.
As I was probably less than 10 feet from him, he turned on a fastball inside. I was just beginning my slide – feet first, I never slid head first to home – and I started lowering my head in the process. The ball hissed its way through and it cut the air at the very place where my head was just couple of tenths of a second before. Had he hit it just a bit lower, I wouldn’t be writing about it today.
Ironically, it was probably the hardest hit ball of his bat in weeks.
We then forbid all spontaneous home steals during the pitch*, and made it like suicide squeeze – the sign was only on if the batter would send the return sign, assuring everyone that he understood what play was on.
* There is also a third way to steal home – on a return ball from the catcher to the pitcher, especially with the lefthander on the mound. If the catcher pays no attention and the pitcher receives the ball with his back somewhat turned to the third base – it’s a risky but possible play.
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
This in terms of last night...
Yes. I agree with all of this. The communication issue is not just for safety, too, it improves the chances of success.
It didn’t look like CoJack knew it was on. Then when he figured it out, he just gave up the whole batter’s box to Pierzynski, allowing him to lean in and catch Coco without much trouble. If CJ even just squares to bunt, there’s a better chance. If he takes a check-swing and hits Pierzynski, it’s interference and we all smile cuz nobody likes AJ anyways.
One other thing that crossed my mind— if Sweeney’s in there, he could see Coco coming and do one of the above things to keep Pierzysnki back.
by leftfieldfan on May 14, 2011 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions
I really didn't have a problem with it.
Cup’s points are well taken about the situation, but everything broke right for the White sox and he was barely out. that’s life
Put a bird on it
Same lineup as yesterday replacing Matsui with Willingham
Barton 2nd and Ellis in there.
I guess one day these fuckers will start hitting.
I wouldn't count on it. I'm getting to the point where I'm ready to replace:
Ellis with Weeks
Barton with Carter
and trade the farm for Wright and Beltran (if we can convince him to come).
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on May 14, 2011 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions
Barton's track record suggests he's going to turn it around.
Ellis? Not so much.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
It does? I see a .337 wOBA by ZiPS and a .269 TAv by PECOTA. I see Bruce Bochte
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on May 14, 2011 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Bruce Bochte was a good player.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
That's not fair at all for Barton.
Because that projection is taking into account his horrible age-22 season in 2008, where he wOBA’d .302.
Love the Atlanta unis
worn today in honor of a CRG.
Also, Jair ’s looking good…
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
Totally awesome
Also nice to see Phillies honoring the Stars
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
I really wish they would do more of this
I also wish the Nationals would have taken the name “Grays.” Nationals is such a bland name, and Grays has so much more history.
Put a bird on it
So do I
of all the fantastic stuff Posnanski writes about, it’s the Buck O’Neil stories that I love to read the most. It would be nice to see a bit more recognition by MLB
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
Love the analogy Nico
Bad situations end up making the best stories…
7th grade; My friend and next door neighbor Steven Hurd had a great plan; we would go to the Westminster Mall, enter the Sears, go to the top floor, grab a couple of Boogie Boards, put them in the elevator going down. Then, we would run down the stairs, get them out of the elevator and make for the door.
We got about 5 steps out the door. 5 minutes later we were in the security office with our parents on the way. There is nothing like pissed off parents to really punctuate a bad choice.
I got nothin'
So you are both Brad Pitt *and* Mike Leake?
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
The subtle differences between USA and Europe
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
I've been to neither
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on May 14, 2011 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions
I lived in Westminster for a bit as a kid
I got nothin'
by OptimistPrime on May 14, 2011 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Good analysis
Though according to the analysis in the Trib today, Omar Vizquel thought Crisp might try to go and was holding him on a bit so he couldn’t get the huge lead he needed.
http://www.mercurynews.com/athletics/ci_18062648
But I like the shoplifting analogy — and I really want the inside Mike Leake scoop. At $10 shirt, the savings are unbelievable!
what's amazing
is that the play was as close as it was at the plate. worth the risk, considering the odds of a hit, error, or wild pitch in that situation. but Jackson should have been clued in (somehow) to improve the odds.
on the other hand, DeJesus stretching a two-out double into a triple—that one I’m not so sure about, as much as I love watching the guy run.
So, you guys decided yet?
Watching the A’s game or the Eurovision song contest tonight?
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
neither, since I am blacked out of games and
I think I would rather pock my eyes out out with bananas than watch the song contest
Put a bird on it
Even if you use mlb.tv?
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
I live in SF
which is in the A’s broadcast area
and my cable package does not get the A’s station
Put a bird on it
The radio team denegrates the team before every game
If you subscribe to MLB.com, you can hear VP say what he really thinks prior to every game.
Today’s highlight….just a few minutes ago…paraphrasing
“I see the crowd is in the 10’s”
“I’ll bet the 880 is backed up getting to the game”
“Can’t wait for another Ellis 0-for”
Then…….he totally transforms himself when he thinks he first goes on air.
This kind of attitude really sucks.
And if anything, I like that
It shows at least someone feels the same frustrations a lot of us do, but at least when on the air it’s kept out.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Sometimes the mic is hot before the pregame, sometimes not
It is funny though. I didn’t hear that convo above, but he’ll like talk to his wife on his cell phone, then chat it up with the production guys. I’m going to make a point to listen to the pre-pregame more often.
"Hey anyone can join in...as long as they talk about me." - Mr. Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on May 14, 2011 11:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Drumb beat on bailey
Andrew Bailey threw 18 pitches in an extended spring training game in Arizona this morning and he used all his pitches and averaged 92-94 mph on his fastball.
Put a bird on it
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