Good Designated Hitters Field Better Than You Think
by Nico on May 12, 2011 7:00 AM PDT
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PrintCount me amongst the fans excited about Chris Carter's potential for the years 2012-17. This is especially noteworthy because I have seen enough to conclude that the only position Carter can play well is DH. (Personally, I'd like to see the A's give up on him as a LFer or 1Bman and let him focus on being the best DH he can be.)
When you look at the "positional adjustment penalty" given to DHs -- Tom Tango assigns a whopping -17.5 run penalty just for being a DH, before he ever actually sees a pitch -- you can easily conclude that DHs aren't that valuable and that a guy like Carter, even if he can mash big league pitching, isn't going to be all that useful if he can't play in the field.
So when you see an article, perhaps one a lot like this one, that is about to espouse the virtues of a mashing DH, you might think it's going to talk about how important hitting is, and overlook how critical defense is. And yet I'm here to talk about defense too, and how Chris Carter, if he's a good enough DH, can help the A's in the coming years both at the plate and in the field.
As you look at the current A's lineup, you see a middle of the order that is, at best, "ok" and a bottom of the order that is offensively poor (in both senses of the phrase). The A's, however, do put a good defensive team on the field overall. The problem is that mostly the same guys who hit also play defense, and if you're Mark Ellis, Cliff Pennington, Kurt Suzuki, or Kevin Kouzmanoff, most of your value comes from your defense. So the current A's have put together a team of mostly excellent defensive players, flanked by two decent hitters who don't help you defensively: Josh Willingham and Hideki Matsui.
The problem is that you can't afford to have "defense only" players flanked by "defense only" players, because then you get what the A's have: A team that can field but can't hit. Yet you can't afford to just replace these guys with poor defenders who are better hitters, because then you get a team that can hit but can't field -- and if that sounds appealing right now, ask Marlins fans about infield defense or Twins fans about OF defense.
What you need is a really good hitter who can afford you the luxury of putting a couple "defense only" guys at key defensive positions -- but who doesn't hurt you defensively himself. There are two kinds of players who fit that description: Stars (like Albert Pujols, Robinson Cano, Carl Crawford, etc.), who cost a fortune, and DHs. The beauty of a good enough DH is that he can help afford you the luxury of an Ellis, or a Pennington.
I know the A's are legitimately high on Carter's potential as a hitter, and I am too. I see him as potentially a legitimate "masher," while I also see him as an inadequate defensive player. As one of the few "40-HR potential" guys the A's have had in a long time, but one who also has good plate discipline, Carter's ceiling as a hitter (and remember a ceiling isn't a "likely projection," it's a best case scenario) is to be similar to Ryan Howard or Prince Fielder. Other apt comparisons might be to David Ortiz and Travis Hafner, circa 2003-04: Basically someone who should be DHing, who at the plate can give you a .250/.350/.550 line, with 35-40 HRs to help you forget about his 100+ Ks. Carter may or may not reach that level as a hitter, but even if he doesn't he might come close.
He just won't help you in the field -- or rather, he WILL help you in the field if he allows you to put a good hitting lineup out there even when you include a couple light-hitting defensive whizzes.
I want you to close your eyes (ok that was a bad idea, now you're not reading...open them again and just do some visualizing) and imagine Ryan Howard, or Prince Fielder, or the in-their-prime versions of David Ortiz or Travis Hafner, as part of this lineup right now. For simplicity, I'll use Howard to represent that type of hitter:
Crisp - CF
Barton - 1B
Willingham - LF
Howard - DH
DeJesus/Jackson/Sweeney - RF
Suzuki - C
Kouzmanoff/LaRoche - 3B
Ellis - 2B
Pennington - SS
It's already starting to look a lot better, because the upgrade from Matsui to a true masher has made the lineup a lot more potent while keeping it just as strong defensively. Right now, the A's can't really afford Ellis' bat, or Kouzmanoff's bat, or Pennington's bat, because there's too many of them and not enough oomph around them.
So if Carter can develop into what Ortiz and Hafner became to their teams, for the 2012-17 A's, they will better be able to afford to put an Ellis (though it won't be Ellis himself) or Pennington in the lineup and keep the defense strong while still generating enough offense overall.
DH is the only position where you can do that, which is why I believe a really good DH is valuable, and I'm excited about the possibility that the A's could have one, one who is affordable and under contract control, arriving on the scene in the near future.
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I think we'd be at a major advantage getting to play 3 LF and 2 3B.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Nice write up Nico
It feels – as an A’s fan – like we are always trying to pull those little Jenga parts out. One wrong move, and everything’s gonna come crashing down. And then your little sister will scream “Jenga! Jenga! Jenga!” right in your face like an air raid siren, until your parents, eventually, peel her off the cold little ball of afraid that you’ve become. Maybe that’s just me.
Every plan is based on heapin helpings of hope, every forecast is fragile – any misstep puts us back 2 years or 5 years. In some ways I wish I could go back to my comfy old ignorance. I mean, I guess I could, but I’d have to stop coming here.
Hey! There’s your backhanded compliment for the day!
Being called a poet as a rock ’n’ roll musician is like being called a physicist as a baseball player. It might have some application but it’s pretty remote. - Richard Hell
In no way do I represent
Jenga, Hasbro, Parker Brothers, or the Parker sister Dot, who used to tease them all the time.
Being called a poet as a rock ’n’ roll musician is like being called a physicist as a baseball player. It might have some application but it’s pretty remote. - Richard Hell
by fridaynightfan on May 12, 2011 7:40 AM PDT up reply actions
So you're saying that you represent Milton Bradley?
by Pop N' Locktapus on May 12, 2011 8:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Hasbro owns all of them now.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I suspect that Milton is now owned by Hasbeen.
alaska A in northern idaho
by ak_A on May 12, 2011 7:04 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
agree 100%
Just let him DH only. Beane needs to understand that some players are not meant to catch a ball. Unless barton is traded or injured there is no place to play Carter. He is the only legit power hitter in the minors and proved he can hit the long ball so why not just place him at DH.
strictly speaking, DH is not a "position"
The “position” refers to the position a non-pitcher plays in the field. A "designated hitter’ is simply a player who is not playing a position, but has been designated to bat in place of another player (virtually always a pitcher).
some teams appear to prefer having a rotation of DHs in order to give some position players a break in the field while keeping their bat in the lineup. Others prefer to have a specific player be the DH most of the time (that’s often an older player who can still hit but can’t play regularly in the field anymore and stay healthy or be a good fielder.)
I hate to see a young player who has been described as athletic be relegated to only batting for the pitcher. The only position that he’s seemed to have much experience is 1B. He was supposed to have played left field in winter ball to get more experience and hopefully learn to play it adequately enough to be able to play there at least sometimes in the majors. However, his thumb injury prevented him from doing so – and is preventing him from doing so in AAA right now.
I would like to see him get healthy, and play regularly in LF and 1B at the AAA level, for at least most of this season. He also needs to hit regularly and well at that level while playing. If after that his bat looks major league ready, but he continues to be hopeless in the field, then I guess a more or less DH he’d be. But even DH’s play occasionally in the field, and they shouldn’t be as pathetic as Vlad was in Game 1 of the World Series.
So you're saying we can DH for Pennington...
… and have a pitcher hit?
Now I think we’re getting somewhere! Then we just use our Pinch Hitters for pitchers like in the NL and don’t have to replace the DH because he’s actually representing the SS.
=P
by The Next Big 3 on May 12, 2011 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions
I would be really excited if that ever happened.
If an AL team with a solid bench had like Micah Owings pitching or something and a position player putting up, say, Mark Ellis’ 2011 numbers, it might even make sense.
But it would make even more sense
to trade the Micah Owings-like pitcher to some NL team and get back another pitcher who has approximately equal over all value because he’s a slightly better pitcher than Owings but without the hitting.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Sorta OT:
Anyone know where I can get a nice compilation of weekly minor league stats? Already know about
I want to start doing minor league updates like grover used to cuz I have started to get interested in following our fledglings, but don’t really have the time to go and compile stats over the course of a week (probably what grover actually did).
I basically want to be a lazy man’s grover.
by Pop N' Locktapus on May 12, 2011 9:13 AM PDT reply actions
does
anyone have any news on when Carter may be returning to the Rivercats lineup?
Ray Fosse thinks Pete Rose is a prick......
Two in a row
That’s now two very well written front page articles in a row that I do not necessarily agree with.
I have no problem with your projections of Carter as a hitter, even though some might find it optimistic to be talking about his ceiling without mentioning his floor. But, the fact is that we don’t know, and we might just as well hope for the best.
I also have no problem with turning him into DH at his young age. From what we have seen, the combination of positional penalty for LF, combined with his poor fielding, might even be greater than the one for DH.
But, I do not necessarily agree with the basic premise – that having Carter in the lineup (in the shape and form that you envision him) allows you to have poor hitting/great fielding rest of the lineup.
I would contest that having such a slugger as a DH would improve a team of great fielders and poor hitters by just as much as it would an equally successful team of poor fielders and great hitters.
People tend to think that a baseball team must be balanced to win and I have so far found no evidence to support it. This assumption comes in all shapes and forms, but most often in recent years was – “we need home run hitters, because we don’t have any”. It seems to be based on the assumption that a marginal value of a certain quality of a baseball player decreases if there is an arbitrary amount of that quality already present on the team.
Or in other words, that a great hitter will not really help a good hitting team, but he will help a poor hitting team (assuming he replaces equally worthless player on both teams). Or that a great starter will help a team with poor rotation much more than he would a team with already 3 great starters (again, assuming the quality of the guy he replaces in either rotation is the same).
I see no logic in such thinking, and no evidence either. The need for a HR hitter assumption was somewhat put to rest in a simulation I did some time ago. As for the other ones, I know of no studies that would support such a claim.
So, while I agree that a great hitting DH like Carter would make A’s both better and more fun to watch, I do not see how that would be in any way tied with having good defenders and poor hitters on the team. I argue that if Ellis and Pennington, for example, were to be replaced with players of equal worth, but whose expertise lays in hitting but not fielding, that adding Carter would have exactly the same positive impact as it would on the current state of the A’s.
Still a great article, though.
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
by elcroata on May 12, 2011 9:48 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs
I agree there's no evidence for it,
but I wouldn’t say there’s no logic. If the various types of baseball skills have diminishing returns the more of them you have on the team, then the premise would logically follow. That doesn’t seem to be the case, but it’s not a fundamentally implausible hypothesis.
It is true if the “certain quality of a baseball player” is positional skills, eg, adding a competent catcher to a team with none is more advantageous to adding him to a team that already has two good catchers. Or your own sentence about great starters becomes true if you replace “3” with “5”.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
That's a different argument entirely, and one that nobody was actually making.
I think the point Nico was trying to make was that you can live with Mark Ellis “hitting” .185/.215/.266 and playing good/great defense at second base, and Cliff Pennington “hitting” .229/.277/.349 and playing good defense at shortstop when you have a theoretical Chris Carter at DH hitting 40 bombs a year.
elcroata is saying that it doesn’t matter. Value is value, and it wouldn’t matter if Theoretical Carter was hitting 40 bombs and instead of Ellis/Pennington in the middle infield, they were replaced with their (theoretical) polar opposites, who hit well and were poor fielders. Carter still adds X value to the team, regardless of the players around him.
I mean, it’s not like Beane would be saying “No thanks, we don’t need Hanley Ramirez to replace Cliff Pennington at shortstop, we have Chris Carter at DH so we’re going to live with Pennington.” That makes no sense.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
As mikev said, this is a different argument
And the assumptions you discuss, namely:
It is true if the "certain quality of a baseball player" is positional skills, eg, adding a competent catcher to a team with none is more advantageous to adding him to a team that already has two good catchers. Or your own sentence about great starters becomes true if you replace "3" with "5".
are clearly out of the boundaries of what I wrote. I explicitly, even redundantly wrote:
Or in other words, that a great hitter will not really help a good hitting team, but he will help a poor hitting team (assuming he replaces equally worthless player on both teams). Or that a great starter will help a team with poor rotation much more than he would a team with already 3 great starters (again, assuming the quality of the guy he replaces in either rotation is the same).
An additional good starter for a rotation of 5 great ones, or a third catcher where there are already two good ones will not be replacing the player of the same quality as he would on a team with poor catchers or starters, so that doesn’t really count.
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
I don't disagree with your point.
On the point in dispute between you and Nico, I’m totally on your side. I was just quibbling with you calling it illogical as well as wrong. I’m saying it is wrong but not illogical.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
you don't agree that the games last night being rained out was a good thing?
troll!
"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey
by JJ on May 12, 2011 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Professional wrestling is truly like ballet.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Unless it's WWE, and then it's just anything but wrestling now.
Seriously. Vince McMahon won’t let them say the words “wrestle” or “wrestling” anymore. TNA is trying to take advantage by renaming their TNA Impact show to Impact Wrestling to attract those who are becoming disenfranchised with WWE.
by LoneStranger on May 13, 2011 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions
This, exactly.
There’s no evidence for the need for balance. Having Carter be a force at DH doesn’t change anything regarding the rest of the team. An all hit no field lineup + Carter wouldn’t necessarily win more than a no hit all field lineup + Carter, ceteris paribus.
A run is a run is a run. Offensive runs aren’t worth more because you have none. And the same for defensive runs.
Ceteris paribus
I think I love you
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
Heh.
Or, to put it in economic terms: The marginal gain from an offensive run is linear at any realistic point. Sure, if you scored 0.2 runs per game, adding another run would mean a lot more than for a team who scored 15 runs per game. But in any realistic sense, it’s linear. And the same goes for defense.
Honest question
Ok, so runs are linearly valuable towards wins on offense or defense, but is run creation/prevention ability linearly related to runs? In other words, is there significant diminishing returns on fielding ability?
For example, consider one player’s effect on runs allowed when put on two different teams, one with great defenders and one with horrible defenders. Let’s assume that a player’s ability to prevent hits stays constant. On a team with horrible defenders, if he allows an extra hit, that hit will have a run value X. On a team with horrible defenders, that hit will have a run value of X – epsilon where epsilon is the extra ability of the team defense to prevent that hit from resulting in a run.
My question is, is that epsilon big enough to be significant? It seems logical to me that there would be diminishing returns on fielding ability, but is it a significant amount?
Offense, yes. Defense, for the most part, yes.
wOBA, for example, is linear. The difference between a .200/.180 wOBA is the same as the difference between a .420/.400.
Defense is a little tricker, because if you’re a Gold Glove-quality CF, you’re going to play one way when flanked by Gold Glove LF and RFers, and a different way if you have Carter and Adam Dunn next to you. So there’s a bit of fuzz involved in the numbers.
That's not really what he's saying though
What he’s saying is that preventing a single is more valuable to a bad fielding/good hitting team because that runner is more likely to come around to score.
Which is true, but the nature of such a team is that the run environment is more liberal, which means that even though a single might be more valuable in run terms, those runs are devalued to some extent. And, of course, the situation is also true for a hitter: getting a single is more valuable, in run terms, for a very good hitting team, because the guy is more likely to eventually be batted around to score.
I don’t just want to wave my hands and say this all cancels out in the end, because there might be a very subtle effect there somewhere, but I am confident in saying that it would be in the neighborhood of a few tenths of a win a year at most.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Yep
That’s what I was saying and what you’re saying matches my gut feeling too. It’d definitely a secondary effect at most. However, a few tenths of a win per year gets close to a significant amount when making roster decisions about a single player. If a player’s defensive skill has to be discounted that much, that could definitely affect roster decisions.
Admittedly, I’m not sure it’d be even a few tenths of a win when just looking at one position, so it might not make a difference at all.
This article is NOT about balance.
It’s not. It’s about how to get enough hitting within the parameters of a small market team, i.e., a team that can only afford or get “flawed” (not complete) players.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Coli strategery?
It seems like the strategy for the last few years has been to play to the strengths of thesadium, i.e. Run prevention when assembling a team. Which has led to a lot of low scoring games, on both sides of the boxscore. Wouldn’t a plus offensive dh have a greater impact, in this context, where you priority with positional players is good defense over all else?
by ilikeike on May 12, 2011 2:12 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
seems like it would, but this is the "marginal run" argument
Marginal runs mean more when you score less.
by Billy Frijoles on May 12, 2011 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions
I think it's a subtle difference
Because we’d be saying that there is a different meaning to a defensive run saved (or of a player with a high probability of saving runs) when you play half your games at the coliseum, so that Nico’s argument about a plus DH allowing you to focus on defenders allows one to embrace a coliseum strategy more wholeheartedly.
by ilikeike on May 12, 2011 7:50 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I guess what you’re saying is that if you have written off your offense, basically, in an effort to keep the other team scoring as little as possible, the one place where you can keep that strategy and not give a crap about defense is DH. Which is what Nico is saying as well…
And sure, when you are keeping teams to 2-3 runs or less day in and day out, having one guy in the lineup who hits 35-40 bombs and generally mashes can be a huge difference maker, especially when they don’t compromise your ability to keep the other team’s scoring down. Without that guy you will lose a lot of games 2-1 or 3-0 or something like that (which we are doing now).
by Billy Frijoles on May 12, 2011 11:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Good points, elcroata -- what I'm saying, though, I think,
is that the A’s can’t afford “great hitter/great defender” and so it becomes choices of “great hitter, can’t field” or “can’t hit, great hitter” from the pool of what a team like the A’s can afford. And if you have a great hitter who doesn’t have to field, then you can go with the “can’t hit, great hitter” and still end up with a decent lineup in the end.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
But that's still about balance.
And if you have a great hitter who doesn’t have to field, then you can go with the "can’t hit, great hitter" and still end up with a decent lineup in the end.
What Carter brings to the table is irrelevant. If you have to choose between great hitter/bad fielder or bad hitter/great fielder, you choose the one with the higher total value, regardless of your existing lineup. You don’t need a decent lineup…you need overall production. It doesn’t matter if it comes from offense or defense.
I see what you're saying
Perhaps it’s a matter of what’s available to the A’s — if they are able to get good pitchers (because pitchers actually want to come to Oakland), and can find or produce light hitting, excellent fielding players — they are going to be fine pitching-wise and defensively, and the question becomes, “Can they produce enough offensively without in turn compromising the defensive part?”
Now maybe that’s not actually the case. Maybe they can find or produce a Dan Uggla just as well as they can find or produce an Ellis or a Pennington, I don’t know.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Continuing on, is it possible one of the differences is that the
“hit well don’t field so good” players, like Uggla, who are of equal value to “field well don’t hit so good” players, like Ellis/Pennington, are simply more expensive? Perhaps that’s why the A’s routinely end up with the latter. Or maybe it relates to their need to take care of the pitching strength in the process.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Definitely the case.
It’s why we’re stuck with the field well bad hit players like Ellis. Bats are sexy. So good field bad hit becomes undervalued. It’s what Beane’s been doing for the last few years.
And the reason it's undervalued
is because there are a whole bunch of fans out there who care less about whether the teams wins games than they do about being entertained by seeing a lot of bombs. Perhaps we have fewer of those than other markets have, but we definitely have some. They’re the ones you see here saying things like, “Our team is boring! Billy needs to give up some pitchers and get someone who can hit!”
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Or maybe they're saying that because they do care about winning, and they see that the current formula isn't- and hasn't been- working.
And yeah, I know there’s more to it than that, but maybe some of these fans think, “Well, if we’re going to suck or be average anyway (which has been the case for four years), can we at least be exciting?” (which has not been the case for four years, save for the occasional pitching gem, which are too often wasted anyway.)
I'm here to talk about the past.
Yep.
In some way, I agree with those fans, in that I’d love to have a Pujols-type superstar, but at the same time, I’d rather Beane just pursue the most talented team possible, even if it’s a lineup full of boring guys who hit .100/.500/.100.
Not sure that's the only reason
Sure, a bunch of fans probably care to be entertained more than winning. However, I think you’re also giving fans too much credit. I think most fans equate more dingerzzz to more wins and just don’t grasp the importance of fielding.
I think you see that kind of mentality with the talk of Beltre being a bust in Seattle. Casual fans don’t look at his defensive contributions, so they think he wasn’t helping the team win.
But then, I think my point stands --
that the A’s flat out can’t afford “great hit, great field” guys, and can afford “great field, no hit” guys better than “great hit, no field” guys, which has the added benefit of supporting the pitching to be the best it can be — but leaves the team with bad hitting.
And that the one way to solve this without the “give and take” of getting worse somewhere to get better somewhere is to fortify the “fielding 8” with a DH who mashes and is defense neutral because of the “position” he plays — thus better allowing you the luxury of those good fielders, which is kind of the premise of my post.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Yay!!!
{continues going door to door to seek converts}
“Have you heard the truth about Chris Carter?”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
"Trogdor died for our sins!"
“He just hurt his thumb, you moran.” {slam}
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Well, balance is important once you get to the extreme point of literally having no one decent to DH
It’s just that almost no one gets so far as to have to put a good-field-no-hit player at DH. Either the team has a pretty good hitter who doesn’t field well to put there, or the team completely sucks and no one cares.
Even the A’s have Willingham, who will never be mistaken for any kind of fielding genius.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I'm having trouble seeing the downside to Carter learning to play LF in AAA. You can always make him a DH
when he gets to the majors if he continues to be horrible there.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on May 12, 2011 10:54 AM PDT reply actions
The other side of the argument, which I don't completely subscribe to,
is that, if the A’s brass has ruled out Carter being compentent in LF, he should go ahead and get used to being a DH, especially if you’re of the thought that some players struggle to adjust to DHing.
"We've come a long way, and I'm not talking about Virginia Slims, either." - Art Howe
Then obviously they haven't ruled him out as a left fielder.
And he’s blocked by Barton at first.
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
I just want to see
somebody wearing green and gold to hit the damn ball, hit it hard and hit it often, That is all.
slide! jeremy slide!
That hasn't worked so far.
Kouz, for example, hits the ball hard, but it is right at a fielder, so he achieves nothing from it.
Life insurance s..cks. I'm now worth more dead than alive.
I swear you are actually Kouzmanoff. Or related to him.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
Dh is on average one of the priciest positions at around 7.5M
Well above the average cost of an OF. By slipping him into the higher paid slot they could then theoretically afford to step up the ladder and pay for an above average OF.
great point.
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
Age
Is the price difference between DH and OF related to DHs being older, and thus beyond their pre-arby years? Or are you talking about free agent values?
I don't know why the average salary is so high
It could be because mashers are more high profile, it could be because of the general unwillingness to use youngins as you point out, or it could just be the fact that there’s a lot more position players on the fringe that are fairly cheap and a lot more versatile. My speculation however is that it’s just because DH is position that demands consistent offensive production and offense costs more than defense.
Defective and/or extraneous players
It makes sense that the A’s are saddled with many defective players considering the “small market” status and the limited payroll that goes along with that. A first baseman with good OBA but little power, a “swingles hitting” outfielder with great D, a hitting challenged SS with good range and a gun, etc. etc.
Looking at what the A’s can do to trade for a “defectiveless” player that will kick-start the pitiful offense I have the following proposal for your perusal and comment. The proposal is intended to get the trade done -to “make an offer that can’t be refused”.
The A’s send Brett Anderson (I know, one of the new big 3 and perhaps the nastiest stuff among the starters, unfortunately will have to pitch against Texas as much as any other team in the league, seems fragile), Chris Carter (big name prospect, big guy, no position, attractive to other teams), Adrein Cardenas (consistent at every minor league level and hot now), Kevin Kouzmanoff, and Grant Balfour to the Mets for David Wright.
We’d replace Anderson with Banwart or Godfrey or Harden (if ever healthy). We replace Balfour with Devine or Magnuson.
The Mets would get a #1 starter, a stopgap at 3B (Kouz), a starting 2B (Cardenas), a power hitting OF/1B with the potential the fans and press in NY would demand (Carter) and the set-up man they desperately need.
We would get a toolsy 3B under contract for a while who would solve the gaping hole at the 3 spot in our lineup.
Do you think the offense would improve enough to offset the decline in pitching?
Everything looks nicer when you win. The girls are prettier. The cigars taste better. The trees are greener. Billy Martin
Waaaaayyyy too much for Wright
That deal can be done by sending Ross and Cardenas.
Holliday deal required 3 players, 1 of them a star prospect (Cargo, that at the moment didn’t have the trade value Anderson has now), 1 injury prone closer (compared to Balfour) and 1 throw in (compared to Kouzmanoff) and Holliday had at the moment way higher value than Wright now.
The need it team is the Mets. They need prospects to rebuild the team, specially starting pitching. Ross can be a solid #3 or #4, and Cardenas a good solution in 3B in the meantime they got an offensive 3B, and Cardenas can be relegated as utility. Both sides win.
Holliday was under contract for 1 year. Wright is under contract for 2 more after this one.
That said, Anderson/Carter/Cardenas/Balfour/Kouz is overpaying, and that is considering Kouz has zero value and will almost assuredly be nontendered if he even makes it through the season.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
I can't see why Anderson for Wright can't be done.
Throw in Kouz in case they don’t have a 3B in waiting, but seriously, that is a fair as hell deal….probably favoring the Mets a little. They need COST controlled good pitchers, BA is that. They don’t need big contracts, and need to clear payroll and rebuild.
Because the pitching staff would turn into Cahill, Gio, McCarthy, Ross, and Cramer.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Yeah, it looks like Braden's injury has really hampered Billy's ability to trade a starter
(assuming he had any thoughts to do so in the first place). I wonder how that injury will change the trading deadline outcomes this season.
You are aware of the fact that there are other teams in the league
That can all almost certainly match offer of Ross and Cardenas in their sleep, and that at least 10 of those teams would be active in the Wright sweepstakes?
How many teams can match talented young SP under team control for years?
This isn’t Vin Mazzarro.
I see your larger point, but Ross is a stud.
by Billy Frijoles on May 12, 2011 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Ross never cracked any top 100 lists in minors that I know of
And his major league numbers so far are pretty pedestrian. I would say he has more trade value than Mazzaro because his raw stuff is better, but most teams can dig a comparable pitcher somewhere.
Ross is not a stud.
His K rates are unimpressive, but the knocks on him are the exact same ones as Cahill had last year, so who knows, he may improve too…
the knocks on ross are totally different.
yes, he needs to get his k-rate up and walk rate down to be more successful sustainably. ross’s issue has nothing to do with an unsustainable era given an un-godly low babip.
ross hasn’t given up a home run this year and is stranding more runners on base this year than his careers suggests he will. i’d say he’s pitching on borrowed time given that his ld% and fb rate haven’t deviated much from last year but his home run rate has plummeted.
just my view.
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
From what I've read, his mechanics don't treat him favorably either.
His “inverted M” has caused concerns as to his longevity at this level.
Life insurance s..cks. I'm now worth more dead than alive.
I wouldn't trade anyone off the major league roster, just because a deal to acquire Wright
is a deal to “Win Now”. I would be willing to give up one of Green, Weeks, Choice or Carter in addition to two of Cardenas, Parker, Fautino and Stassi. In surplus value terms, it’s still an overpay but I want to upgrade by 3-4 WAR enough to do that.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on May 12, 2011 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'd trade most of our hitters from the Major League roster to acquire Wright....
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
Hee, I doubt the Mets would want any of those.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on May 12, 2011 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions
this, unfortunately
"Hey anyone can join in...as long as they talk about me." - Mr. Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on May 12, 2011 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions
It's a terrible idea
I would trade Anderson for a 5 WAR improvement hitter that’s under team control at least as long as he is. That would be, uhm, Longoria I guess and maybe there are few other players in the league who fit that criteria but I can’t think of them right now.
Wright would be a 3 WAR yearly improvement in the absolute best case scenario and he has only 2 1/2 years left on the contract. Not to mention that you are dumping Carter and some useful complimentary pieces too. I think that trade would have a potential to make Holliday deal a ringing success, and that’s if we assume Wright hits for .900 OPS and plays close to average defense.
Anderson for Wright straight up would be a fair trade, I think.
Not talking in terms of improvement to us, but generally that seems like a win-win deal. Throw in Kouz so they have a 3B, if they want. Or low minors prospect.
by Billy Frijoles on May 12, 2011 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Cahill, Gio, McCarthy, Ross, and Outman/Cramer?
That ain’t taking us to the playoffs.
"Hey anyone can join in...as long as they talk about me." - Mr. Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on May 12, 2011 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Someone would almost certainly win that trade
Depending on Anderson’s health.
Anderson is almost certainly a better value than Wright
In terms of wins, they’re similar (Anderson’s a little more volatile because of his injury history, but he’s also under team control for more years).
The problem is that Wright is making much more money.
And even in spite of this, I bet 90% of people on the street would say the A’s were ripping the Mets off, because “who’s Brett Anderson?” It’s a non-starter as an idea.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I think the main problem with Carter as DH
other than he might not hit that well (that is the main problem actually), is “good hitters who are too old to field” is a category of player that tends to be available to the A’s relatively cheaply in FA. If that spot is taken, it’s harder to upgrade the team. Putting Carter at DH would tend to improve the team’s fielding, but would hurt the offense. If he hits like Ryan Howard, that’s great, but if not we’re stuck with a bad offense that is very difficult to improve for the foreseeable future. I would be very hesitant to put any youngish player with working legs and who is not obese at DH.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
The reason they're relatively cheap in FA is because they're not that good anymore.
That said, I’m 100% in the “play Carter in LF every damn day until he figures it out” camp.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Beane keeps thinking about that Frank Thomas 2006 signing...
Piazza, Giambi, Cust, and now Matsui
Every man for himself...
I wouldn't put Cust in the same category as Giambi or Piazza. The jury's still out on Matsui.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on May 12, 2011 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions
And, to be fair to Piazza, he was starting to come around when that freak play at 3rd, knocked him out for the season.
Life insurance s..cks. I'm now worth more dead than alive.
But those Ryan Howard types do earn some money
Whether it’s Matsui money, or Frank Thomas 2006 money. So, if that is where you think Carter is going to be after this year, there’s no sense overpaying for something you have for free right now. If he sucks, then send him down and find the next aging star to sign.
While I agree with what mikev said below, it seems like the A’s are well-positioned to have Carter DH with occasional outfield duties in 2012 and beyond. After watching what Willingham can and cannot do out there and also having watched Carter last year and in ST, asking for regular OF time is probably a stretch. If his bat is ready in 2012, I think Carter’s up and DHing.
"Hey anyone can join in...as long as they talk about me." - Mr. Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on May 12, 2011 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions
well,
LFs cost money too, and I think it’s easier to find a decent DH than a decent outfielder.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
if I was making odds, I would say that Willingham is likely to be re-signed come season end (or sooner)
"Hey anyone can join in...as long as they talk about me." - Mr. Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on May 12, 2011 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Carter's not a decent outfielder
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
and he never will be.
His ceiling is sub-Custian out there.
"OK and now everybody who said 'game over' at some point
GO KNEEL IN THE CORNER!" - elcroata
by Gaijin_Suketto on May 13, 2011 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions
wow. that is a low ceiling
my neck hurts.
by Billy Frijoles on May 13, 2011 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions
Once upon a time
There was this guy who was considered a defensive washout in the low minors, but, man, could he mash.
He grew up to be Eric Chavez. Let’s not forget the influence of a good set of coaches
by As Fan in the Bronx on May 12, 2011 1:16 PM PDT reply actions
If only Jack Cust had access to those coaches, he'd be a Gold Glover!
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on May 12, 2011 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Th difference is that Carter was bad at 1st base in AAA, not the low minors.
Life insurance s..cks. I'm now worth more dead than alive.
was he not even adequate at 1B? I thought he was ok but admittedly I know nothing about this.
by Billy Frijoles on May 12, 2011 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions
He pretty much shouldn't be allowed to wear a glove
This is his seventh year in the minors and he doesn’t even have a position that he can play adequately. Anyone who thinks he’s all of a sudden going to learn how to catch a ball or take a route is fooling themselves. He’s already spent well over twice the time in the minors as Chavez did (687 games compared to Chavez’s 282) and is three years older than when Chavez became a full time major leaguer.
How long has he played in the OF?
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
http://www.domingobeisbol.com/
by hero66 on May 12, 2011 3:24 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
You do have a point in that he hasn't played many games out there
But have you seen him in the field? He failed at 3B in a terrible way early on (80 games), by all accounts is not a good 1Bman, and was utterly lost in the OF. You could actually see the confidence melting away.
That little boy that nobody liked grew up to be...Roy Cohn
And now you know the rest of the story.
by Glorious Mundy on May 12, 2011 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
For Cahill + Anderson + Barton, I'm sure
"Hey anyone can join in...as long as they talk about me." - Mr. Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on May 12, 2011 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions
What about for Green, Choice and Carter?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on May 12, 2011 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm not sure they'd do it
"Hey anyone can join in...as long as they talk about me." - Mr. Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on May 12, 2011 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions
I wouldn't if I were Arizona
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on May 12, 2011 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Arizona gave Haren away for a half eaten sandwich.
Just sayin….
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
which was one of that guy's last acts as GM
"Hey anyone can join in...as long as they talk about me." - Mr. Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on May 12, 2011 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Upton's splits are scary
I’m not sure he’d hit at the Coliseum. I’d rather wait until a more hitter friendly Cisco field opens and then sign him.
The A's are a fairly quiet team, and then there's Ben Sheets. Sheets, as a kid, must have been thrown out of every library in Baton Rouge. ~ Scott Ostler
I'm pretty sure Upton can hit the ball out of anywhere
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
http://www.domingobeisbol.com/
by hero66 on May 12, 2011 3:26 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
it would be fun to see him try.
The A's are a fairly quiet team, and then there's Ben Sheets. Sheets, as a kid, must have been thrown out of every library in Baton Rouge. ~ Scott Ostler
My conclusion is that a solid proportion of A's fanbase
Would not only do insane trades just to have an elite hitter on the team again, but probably sell their bodies to GMs to make it happen. It’s like a form of PTSD
I would only rent my body to a GM, not sell it
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on May 12, 2011 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Some of them would get a higher price for their bodies than others.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
To paraphrase Bill James:
You can put a guy in left field a few times and call him a left fielder, just like you can send a monkey into space a few times and call him an astronaut, but really, Chris Carter is no more a left fielder than he is an astronaut.
On another note
I don’t know how many of you play Strat-o-Matic, but it’s awesome. They rate players defensively from a 1-5 scale so the best players at their position are 1s and the worst are 5s. For example, for 2010 some left fielder rankings:
Carl Crawford was a 1.
Jose Tabata was a 2.
Jason Bay was a 3.
Luke Scott was a 4.
Manny Ramirez was a 5.
Like the ones above, most of the rankings in the game seem to make sense, but every once in a while you’ll see one that just doesn’t seem right. I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw Carter’s ranking last year: LF4. Not only is he the most obvious “5” I have ever seen in my life, there’s a good argument he should be the game’s first 6.
I play OOTP.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Strat-o-Matic is the best game ever
Give it a try if you haven’t, mikev.
Is Strat-O-Matic online now,
or do you still have to play with dice and cards?
"OK and now everybody who said 'game over' at some point
GO KNEEL IN THE CORNER!" - elcroata
by Gaijin_Suketto on May 13, 2011 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions
First year player
Most first year players get a 4 ranking in strato if they only play a handful of games unless you play for a New York team.
How severe is his thumb injury? I haven't heard anything about him recently.
Also what’s going on with Taylor and Doolittle, any word?
Chris Carter is the next Hank Aaron right?
by streetisclosedin08 on May 12, 2011 2:41 PM PDT reply actions
The thing is...
In 2012 we only have 1B, C and SS set. Literally every other position is vacant. We can fill 2B with Weeks or Cardenas and DH with Carter, but 3B/LF/CF/RF are still wide open. I for one, am really really interested to see how Billy will create this lineup because there are zero hints and zero guys worthy of being resigned right now. Maybe Beane will push a few guys up a few levels and maybe put Parker & Green into the mix? Who knows? No one…
Lew Wolff will be on the Monty and JD show @ 8AM
If you have twitter or facebook you can suggest questions for the guys.
http://www.facebook.com/sportsradio957/posts/145447222195064
The A's are a fairly quiet team, and then there's Ben Sheets. Sheets, as a kid, must have been thrown out of every library in Baton Rouge. ~ Scott Ostler
BUYING HIGH. ALWAYS A GOOD IDEA.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
by mikev on May 12, 2011 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Will you marry me, because Im pretty sure I love you.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on May 12, 2011 9:09 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Think it through dfa
You’re at a love HIGH right now.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Its a sign of how fed up I am of this crap we trot out daily.
we should be in 1st place by 5 games by now had we had, yknow like ONE player who hit well.
What happens when Beltran hits like crap for 30 games
like Willingham, Matsui, and DDJ — the hitters we acquired this offseason
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
We blame it on BB!
How dare he trade for another has-been!
Life insurance s..cks. I'm now worth more dead than alive.
NO! WE'D BE BUYING HIGH!
WAIT TILL HE GOES 0 FOR 4 WITH 4 Ks!!!!
WHY AM I YELLING???
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
CAP ON! {clap}
cap off! {clap clap}
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
You must use a lot of makeup, because you don't look anything like that old lady in the TV ads.
The thing that is the most annoying to me about keyboards, is that only the letters are consistent. I just wish the delete button, etc., could be in the same place on all computers.
Life insurance s..cks. I'm now worth more dead than alive.
Damn, now I have to go watch the music video for "Private Eyes" again
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
As much as I'd love to have him on the team,
Wouldn’t that be acquiring a player in a position that’s already a strength? Our OF is crowded enough. And I know that when you get a guy like Beltran, you make room for him, no question, but…it’d be a lot more efficient, and more of an upgrade, to find an infielder.
I wouldn't call OF a "strength."
I’d call it “crowded with bats that suck less than our other bats, in the sort of way that one root canal sucks less than two root canals.”
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
You know, Beltran was a classic Beane pickup and for the life of me I couldn't understand why the A's didn't pursue him in the offseason
by Billy Frijoles on May 12, 2011 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Good point, I don't really know
Given that we heard about so many of the players he was pursuing, I expected that something might have leaked about Beltran if he was. But you’re right, I don’t know.
by Billy Frijoles on May 12, 2011 5:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Think it's safe to say the A's weren't pursuing Beltran and his $18.5m contract...
coming off microfracture and ineffectiveness. Seriously doubt Beane would do a deal for him without the Mets eating at least two-thirds of the contract, probably more like 75%. No real incentive for the Mets unless they get a stud back, and that definitely wasn’t happening with the A’s.
by AgitationStation on May 12, 2011 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions
NTC?
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on May 12, 2011 9:09 PM PDT up reply actions
yes, a possiblity
I think the Mets would have eaten part of the contract, just to rid themselves of that albatross. And I think that Beltran would waive an NTC if the team straight up told him they didn’t want him anymore.
But…if that is the case, why didn’t any other team get him?
So I probably am wrong about this, chances are he checked in on Beltran and the price was too steep or it was a non-starter.
by Billy Frijoles on May 12, 2011 11:44 PM PDT up reply actions
With what?
I imagine the Mets would love to get Grant Green to replace Reyes, but do we really want to trade him for a rental? He does have a pretty high bust chance because of his fielding, but if he can figure it out, and just play average defense, he’s got a chance to be really valuable too. And the A’s have been superb over the years at turning guys into plus fielders.
Other than Green, and the four starters, who could the Mets possibly want? If Beltran is willing to be traded, as he said before the year, the Mets should easily be able to beat just about anything reasonable we can offer. Maybe Beane could use his personal connections to sell them on somebody, but I doubt it.
by AgitationStation on May 12, 2011 6:24 PM PDT up reply actions
The Mets might want, say, Pennington and Ross, no?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Lots of reports the last couple days that Ross is untouchable.
Olney just reported it. Beane also just spoke on the record to Gammons about how vital it is for small market teams to develop cheap pitching. I don’t think Ross is going anywhere. If they were willing to trade Ross, yeah, I think the Mets might do that straight up without even including Pennington. I imagine AN would spontaneously combust 10 minutes after the deal was announced too.
by AgitationStation on May 12, 2011 6:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh I agree Ross isn't going anywhwere. I'm just suggesting the A's do have other pieces the Mets would want.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Was including Ross when I wrote "Green and the four starters"
Not that I’d expect McCarthy to be traded either (though I suppose he might have some trade value).
by AgitationStation on May 12, 2011 6:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Not if the A's offer to take all of Beltran's remaining 9 million dollar salary.
Beltran’s trade value is limited because of his no trade clause and his salary, regardless of his performance. The Mets can choose either to assume a large portion of his remaining salary and get a better return or they can ask the recipient team to assume most if not all of the salary and not get a good return. As baseball fans, obviously we’d think our teams would be stupid not to prefer the former option. But team finances are complex and there’s lots going on behind the scenes that we don’t know about. Depending on how bad their financial woes actually are, the Mets may actually prefer the latter option.
In which case, the Mets will be hard pressed to find a team that can assume all of Beltran’s contract while also being a team that he agrees to waive his no trade clause for. Such a team would have a lot of leverage in negotiating with the Mets and probably would not have to give up much of a return at all, in terms of talent.
I’m not saying the A’s are the favorites to be such a team. But it’s possible. Just a cursory look at how the A’s spent in the offseason….the A’s were willing to offer Beltre and Iwakuma a combined 16-17 million for this year. 8.75 million of that instead went to Fuentes and Balfour. So certainly, the A’s have shown that they still have room in the previously planned budget to assume most if not all of Beltran’s remaining salary. Not only that, but Iwakuma and Beltre’s contracts would’ve obviously been multi-year commitments. Beltran’s commitment is just for half a season. I don’t want to get presumptuous but it looks like if Lew Wolff wants to loosen the purse strings, he can. He was certainly willing just a couple of months ago.
There are very few significant upgrades available without expending lots of both talent and money. The team’s biggest hole (third base) will be hard to upgrade. You can try to get a 3-4 win upgrade like David Wright, but that would cost a huge amount of resources in both talent and money. With someone like Beltran though, you would only be expending money, if this scenario plays out.
As such, I hope the A’s are willing to get creative and perhaps even be willing to take a few risks or a few short term losses in order to reach the promised land.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on May 12, 2011 7:32 PM PDT up reply actions
I hope they are too
but there’s more like $13m left on that contract, and the Mets haven’t been dumping any money yet…last season, the offseason, or so far this season. And their big money contracts other than Beltran are pretty damn movable. The Wilpons haven’t stepped a toe out of line since the Madoff mess broke, and the commissioner’s office has publicly backed them. As far as the difference between Beltre/Iwakuma and Balfour/Fuentes, the A’s added McCarthy for a million, bonused Cahill a million, and judging by what they offered him, never appeared to be serious about Iwakuma. $5-6m difference. There is also the question of DDJ, the A’s highest paid player, and the guy who Beltran would almost certainly displace. Will the A’s be content to eat a bunch of that contract to get rid of him?
Bottom line, and because, as you note we know so little, there is a counterpoint for every point you or I could make. But the fact is, this ownership group hasn’t yet shown any sort of desire to make big moves which take away from the bottom line. I’d believe that the A’s would eat all, or even a large part of that contract only if I saw it.
by AgitationStation on May 12, 2011 8:39 PM PDT up reply actions
ftr
wasn’t questioning the $16-17 logic, just meant there is a plausible alternative as well. That came off douchey. sorry.
by AgitationStation on May 12, 2011 8:42 PM PDT up reply actions
You're right that a move like this isn't typical of the front office.
I’ll fully admit that it’s a huge longshot that we see Beltran in an A’s uniform this year.
One correction: Beltran will have roughly 6 million left on his contract by the deadline. Still hefty, but not your 13 million figure.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on May 13, 2011 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions
FTR, fangraphs has an article today talking about Beltran's trade value.
They estimate that the cost would only be a couple of C prospects even if the Mets assume “a few million” left of that salary. Even my pessimistic view of Beltran’s trade value might have overestimated it.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on May 13, 2011 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions
With all due respect, this seems like over-analysis.
It sounds to me like you’re saying “I’d rather have Ryan Howard at DH (for league minimum) than Matsui (for 4.5 mil)”. Who wouldn’t?
I also don’t think that would affect the rest of our team composition in and of itself. And, I think our strategy of GB-pitchers plus great defenders is pretty sound, given that we play in a park with real grass and moist, cool air.
My alternative would be, instead of carrying 2 3B, how about carrying 2 DHs? WITH one necessary qualifier: Each of our DHs must be undervalued because they only mash against either LH or RH. Like, ridiculous splits. The central idea being that we get the DH position to produce every day, with guys that cost less combined than it would for a DH that can do that himself, the real cost being the roster spot. It’s a cost we can afford to pay, I think, because of the youth of our great defenders, and the super-store of relievers that we can burn option years on, if that’s what it takes to keep fresh arms at the ready. I mean, we have Kouz riding the bench right now anyway, so we wouldn’t even notice the difference.
That said, it seems like we’ve invested too much PR in Matsui to just dump him this year, but what do you think about optimizing our DH output that way?
va-ma-NOS! at-LET-i-COS!
Not a good plan
Unless you want to carry one less reliever or have one guy who sucks in the field. Plus, no one has those kinds of splits. You’re better off just acquiring the best DH possible.
"Hey anyone can join in...as long as they talk about me." - Mr. Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on May 12, 2011 7:01 PM PDT up reply actions
I'd happily carry 1 less reliever if it got us a significant gain at DH.
There are multiple ways around having 1 less roster spot, it requires young players with option years (which we have). One of those "DH"s could even be our 5th OF, like CoJax, who, this year has a .420 wOBA vs. LHP (approx.). Add another player, like, for example, Garrett Jones, who has a career .400 wOBA vs. RHP (approx.). That’s a player we could trade for without giving up too much, as opposed to truly valuable/versatile guys.
va-ma-NOS! at-LET-i-COS!
Two guys who can't field is a poor way to build a bench
You only have 4 reserves, one of whom has to be a catcher. You pretty much can’t pinch hit or pinch run or platoon anywhere else if you platoon at DH.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
But in my example, CoJax can field, pinch hit, or whatever on the days
he wasn’t in as DH. Vice-versa with Garrett Jones. Not to mention I think pinch-hitting is largely unsuccessful as a rule, whereas this could address our biggest need. You only need 1 fast guy on the bench to pinch-run (super-utility guy). How many games would you actually do it twice, compared to how many games we are trotting out an unproductive DH?
va-ma-NOS! at-LET-i-COS!
Also Landon Powell could be one of the "DH"s in this scenario.
The problem is this year we’ve over-committed the DH position to Matsui.
va-ma-NOS! at-LET-i-COS!
You're putting way, way, WAY too much weight on small, unregressed platoon splits
Read the chapter on splits in “The Book.” The advantage to be gained from this method is far less than you’re making it out to be.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
You are correct. Actually, I stumbled upon the link on FanGraphs last night
while looking for the most extreme splits amongst MLB regulars, trying to back up my point. Very interesting. A bit counter-intuitive, but I guess that’s why everyone leaps to that same conclusion. Still, after following their example with Granderson:
Original (observed) numbers: .358 wOBA (.380 wOBA vs RHP / .270 wOBA vs LHP)
[Recommend to all to read the article and check the math that led them to…]
Applying this to his 2010 CHONE projection of .359 wOBA, we’d forecast his 2010 wOBA against RHP as .374, and against LHP as .311.
Clearly I had only scratched the surface, but even looking at one example only, the end result is a projection for a .374/.311 split – not AS drastic as it appeared, but still pretty significant. If I can find any examples of players who still could be candidates for under-valuation using these formulas, I’ll put a proper post together. It seems possible that there could be something there. To be continued.?
va-ma-NOS! at-LET-i-COS!
I'm saying the David Ortiz' and Travis Hafner's
allow you to put a good defensive team on the field but still maintain a good offense, whereas the Dan Ugglas and Andre Ethiers don’t. So for the A’s, a mashing DH is essential, not “unimportant because DHs aren’t that important,” whereas for another team, like the Rangers or White Sox, this may not be nearly as much the case.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Look at the team right now.
Matsui is supposed to be the “mashing DH” but in reality he’s keeping Geren from putting out the best team — which would have WIllingham DH and Coco/Sweeney/Jackson/DDJ rotating in the outfield.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Yeah, that's what I'm trying to get at, thanks. Every day it seems we have
bats on the bench that we can’t get in the game except as unnecessary PHs. How does that make sense with this team? I’d rather take the hits where we can afford to, as in the limited bench spots, one of which is currently occupied by Kouz, who can’t pinch-hit, pinch-run either, and we don’t need him as a defensive replacement as bad as we need another bat. Then we could have the 4 best bats/ 3 best OFs every day by matchup.
va-ma-NOS! at-LET-i-COS!
I'm not ready to give up on Matsui yet
But, this problem is also “too much depth.” One of those guys needs to be traded away for something.
"Hey anyone can join in...as long as they talk about me." - Mr. Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on May 12, 2011 8:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Except Sweeney is the only OF we have under contract for 2012, so the others
wouldn’t net us much, certainly not a 3B we’d be happy with. Sweeney probably has the most trade value, but can we risk having to replace him?
va-ma-NOS! at-LET-i-COS!
+/-, which has eyes on every play, has Willingham at a whopping -1 so far
UZR is worthless six weeks into the season (not that +/- isn’t). +/- also has Wilingham as perfectly average, 0, for his career. Total Zone has him positive. UZR has him -7.3 for his career. Not the season, the career. He’s’ fine out in LF. Matsui is a better hitter than DDJ, Crisp, Sweeney, or Jackson. He needs to get going, no doubt, but the evidence that the team is better off without him is lacking.
by AgitationStation on May 12, 2011 8:55 PM PDT up reply actions
oops...total zone has him -14.9, UZR has him -5.8. +/- has him 0.
He’s positive in RF in total zone, well negative in LF.
by AgitationStation on May 12, 2011 8:59 PM PDT up reply actions
I literally have no idea where you are coming up with this, but park-adjusted UZR has him -23.5 for his career
Just a wee bit different from what you’re claiming.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Agreed, but isn't that just saying Matsui is insufficient (I'd agree there too)?
Question is how do we address that issue, even next year, if Carter is hurt, slumping, or whatever? Without overpaying, that is.
va-ma-NOS! at-LET-i-COS!
On an unrelated note, Blevins is getting lit up in AAA tonight.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
Joey Devine just pitched another perfect inning, striking out 1.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on May 12, 2011 7:42 PM PDT up reply actions
needs more stamina
But he is not long for a callup
"Hey anyone can join in...as long as they talk about me." - Mr. Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on May 12, 2011 7:55 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes, because a guy who can dominate big league hitters every other day is useless to us!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Exactly!
Nothing wrong with Magnuson, but is ti really so important to get another long reliever up here when there’s a dominant though limited arm in AAA? Breslow is perfectly fine as the long guy. Even if Devine builds up a bit, do we really want Geren pitching him days in a row very often?
by AgitationStation on May 12, 2011 8:46 PM PDT up reply actions
how appropriate
"Hey anyone can join in...as long as they talk about me." - Mr. Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on May 12, 2011 7:55 PM PDT up reply actions
Nice write up
I totally agree with you. At this point, it’s time to have Carter hit and solely focus on hitting. It’s not like he’s still a 21 year old prospect. He’s 24 and turns 25 in December. Let him be the player that he is and that is a power hitting DH. Next season when Matsui is off the books, it’s time to bring Carter up for good.
I think it would really help his psyche too
Doesn’t have to struggle trying to become a LF to get called up and just focus on what he does best.
Cardenas 4 for 4 with a 2B and a HR today.
Yummy.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
LF or DH though?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
LF
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
:facepalm:
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
article
on oaklandathletics.com talking about our prospects. Article hints Carter struggled at the plate b/c of the position change to LF and when he comes back they may put him back at 1b so he gets comfortable
Ray Fosse thinks Pete Rose is a prick......
Cardenas can DH, but heaven forbid that Carter would DH. Heh?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
yeah thats strange
cardenas was not mentioned in the article…taylor was though and he is close to being back with cats
Ray Fosse thinks Pete Rose is a prick......
That Q&A depresses me
Carter’s injury sounds troubling, and Doolittle is starting to sound like a lost cause (and a shocking waste of a 40-man spot).
by Glorious Mundy on May 13, 2011 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions
think
bb may have a closed door meeting with Ellis and say" so sorry to hear you strained your mvnfhdhfbng and will be out the rest of the year."
Ray Fosse thinks Pete Rose is a prick......
I think the bigger issue here is Veteran leadership
Lately Billy has been signed Vets to fill the DH role, because older players typically are not plus defenders.
I can’t remember a team were Billy has not tried to bring in a new veteran player, whether it’s David Justice, the Big Hurt, Nomar, Piazza, ect… the list goes on and on. And I seem to recall BB commenting that he likes having veteran players in the clubhouse, especially with
Bringing up a guy like Carter to DH diverges from Billie’s norm. Where is he going to plug in the gritty vet? As outsiders we probably all scoff at his tendancy to do this. But I don’t see Carter coming up to DH next year, especially if Ellis is on his way out.
You can bet that Billy will bring in another Vet or two and more than likely the vet will go into the DH role, better to do that in my opinion than to resign Ben Sheets or to try to plug a guy who’s past his prime in another role.
by Oaktown Shutout on May 13, 2011 10:47 AM PDT reply actions
especially with....
especially with a clubhouse full of young players (was how that was supposed to read).
by Oaktown Shutout on May 13, 2011 10:48 AM PDT reply actions
Here's something that will blow your mind:
Eric Hosmer’s first HR was THROWN BACK by the Yankees crowd. He could have traded it for merchandise that will be worth tons in ten years or so and instead he gets nothing because Yankees fans don’t know about any teams other than their own.
Did you head to any of those games?
"Hey anyone can join in...as long as they talk about me." - Mr. Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on May 13, 2011 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Another way of interpreting that is
that Yankees fans are so passionate about the principle of snubbing the opposing team that they cannot be bought by the prospect of financial gain.
But that doesn’t fit with the anti-Yankee stereotype, does it?
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Yankee fans have told me the Royals are going to be crap forever, like, this year.
They dont respect any team, even when they are mind-numbingly wrong about them.
If he's as good as advertised he'll end up playing for them eventually.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
Why does everyone just assume we're set at first?
I like Barton but I’m still not convinced he’s our long term answer at first. While he’s better than Carter defensively at first (although not as good as some make him out to be) I saw enough of Carter before his call up last year to know the guy is at least serviceable at the position. Don’t forget Howard wasn’t very good when he came up either and he’s turned into a pretty decent first baseman.
Let's just put it this way.
First base is low on the list of needed improvements.
by LoneStranger on May 13, 2011 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions
So what are we comparing?
Given the hypothetical of us having a Ryan Howard, so between:
Crisp – CF
Barton – 1B
Willingham – LF
Howard – DH
DeJesus/Jackson/Sweeney – RF
Suzuki – C
Kouzmanoff/LaRoche – 3B
Ellis – 2B
Pennington – SS
and this theoretical lineup where we can put someone else at 2B/3B that will help offset the delta between Matsui and Howard?
Crisp – CF
Barton – 1B
Willingham – LF
Matsui – DH
DeJesus/Jackson/Sweeney – RF
Suzuki – C
?? – 3B
?? – 2B
Pennington – SS
Chris Carter
He’ll be our Edgar Martinez.
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