Is Clutchness Correlated With Any Offensive Traits?
by danmerqury on Apr 19, 2011 7:00 AM PDT
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PrintIt's long been a point of contention—are patient hitters like Jack Cust or Daric Barton less productive than their free-swinging brethren when it counts more? And to zoom out and get more general, are there any offensive traits that correlate with being clutch?
I decided to calculate correlations between a whole set of assorted offensive stats and clutchness, just to find out. To measure clutchness, I used WPA's clutch score, which compares a batter's context-dependent offensive production to his context-independent production, to see if he performed better when it meant more. Click to enlarge.
- Note that these correlation coefficients are miniscule. (1 is perfect correlation and 0 is completely uncorrelated.) Even the stats that do correlate with clutch are weak fits at best. This makes sense—clutch doesn't even correlate with itself from year to year, so why would other stats fare any better? That said, I ran the numbers for every qualified batter from 2006 to 2010, and these seven stats did seem to weakly correlate with clutch.
- Some interesting conclusions? Batters who hit more groundballs tend to be slightly more clutch, and the reverse is true for flyball hitters. Also, batters who strikeout more tend to be less clutch. These two factors most likely explain why isolated power is negatively correlated with clutch—power hitters generally strike out a lot and hit flyballs.
- I ran essentially every stat that Fangraphs carries, but these were the only ones that showed any vaguely consistent correlation. Some notable stats that didn't correlate with being clutch? Swing percentage, walk percentage, batting average, on-base percentage, and first-strike percentage. That first one is very interesting—patient hitters don't seem to be any more clutch than free swingers.
- The formula for WPA clutch score is WPA/pLI - WPA/LI. More here and here.
- But the bottom line? It's important to note that while these correlations may exist, they're tiny factors compared to context-independent production. In other words, the effect that these correlations may have are dwarfed by the effect of a slightly more talented hitter, clutch or not.
The Boston Red Sox are in town, starting a two-game set. John "Sling Blade" Lackey faces Brett Anderson at 7:05 PM.
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I think the biggest take-away from this is that...
So-called clutch hitters are probably just good hitters.
by Brett Narloch on Apr 19, 2011 7:11 AM PDT reply actions 3 recs
Yes
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Apr 19, 2011 8:01 AM PDT up reply actions
Seems to be no correlation here, interesting
Are your numbers r or r2 (square)?
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
My abstract non-linear answer
is that clutchness is not predictable through statistical correlations.
However, it may be predictable, in the few seconds right before something clutch happens, by a certain internal feel, which may be something felt to a certain extent by all observers of the event, or just those attuned to such a thing. I don’t know if it would be pure prediction, or also quantum effects from observers influencing an event. That’s for future scienticians to figure out :)
I know which way I believe, though, and until conclusively proven otherwise, I’m gonna believe in clutchness, but not in any useful predictive way that fans or front offices can use. Witches maybe. GM’s no.
"OK and now everybody who said 'game over' at some point
GO KNEEL IN THE CORNER!" - elcroata
Is anything ever felt by "all observers of the event"?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Apr 19, 2011 8:08 AM PDT up reply actions
That's a good question.
I think strong earthquakes, maybe.
However, for funsies, a subjective poll…
What were you feeling on Wednesday just before the big comeback against the White Sox?
"OK and now everybody who said 'game over' at some point
GO KNEEL IN THE CORNER!" - elcroata
by Gaijin_Suketto on Apr 19, 2011 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions
I was asleep
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Apr 19, 2011 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions
I felt it. You knew it.
Save it for the fast money round, Paddy.
by Leopold Bloom on Apr 19, 2011 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions
That we were fucked
And I was there.
"Hey anyone can join in...as long as they talk about me." - Mr. Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Apr 19, 2011 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Nope.
At least not the same thing in the same way.
Choosy Feebas choose Leopold Bloom nipples
Daring. Sensual. Invigorating. Squirrel.
BLOOM. For men.
If the eggs actually hatch I made more than a mistake, I made some scientifically impossible crime.
I believe that you remember the "clutch" hits, because they're so exciting.
The bases clearing double in the playoffs or the walkoff homer make Marco Scutaro seem more clutch, because (obviously) it sticks in our minds as A’s fans.
If you look at his career, though, Scooter is a .259/.336/.375 hitter in so called “close/late” situations (BB-Ref). His overall career numbers? .266 /.336/.384
Almost identical. That’s not the end all/be all by any means, but — given enough at bats, guys pretty much hit the same most of the time.
The perception of clutch is, IMO, directly related to remembering certain events.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
by mikev on Apr 19, 2011 8:17 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Selective positive memory
I was a home run hitter!
[that one time…]
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
by elcroata on Apr 19, 2011 8:20 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Not so much selective
but, you’ve got no reason to remember a plain fly ball out, or a grounder to second, or whatever. It’s just another at bat.
The double to win the game, though? Of course you remember that one.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
I agree
I didn’t mean “selective” as an actively selective process where we get to decide what we want to remember and what not, but rather that a selection/survival is being made in our memory based on uniqueness and specialness of the event.
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
You wouldn't remember individual outs, no, but...
…even in live game threads there will be times when virtually everybody lets out a groan and posts stuff like, “OMG, not John Smith again. Wait for the pop out.”… followed by, “See? Called it.”. The outs tend to be something of a collective memory, if you will, and build up over time that so-and-so couldn’t come through if he bribed the pitcher.
I'm beginning to believe that Bud Selig wants to die of old age before he has to make a decision regarding Oakland vs San Jose.
True, we remember called third strikes more than fly outs
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Apr 19, 2011 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions
Sure.
but the thing is… pop outs are really common. Much more so than, say, a base hit, or a 2 run double.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
But remember the time Marco hit the walk off against Mariano?
I have no point, I just thought that was a great Scutaro memory.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
It was Easter Sunday
and my wife and daughter were sick. Ellis kept the inning alive with a hit, Kendall kept the inning alive with a walk. Scutaro got down 0-2, then fouled one off. Then he really turned on a pitch near his hands and hit it out and the A’s WON!!!! And I was yelling at the tv and jmping around while my family tried to sleep off the afternoon on the couch. I remember it like it was yesterday. But it was sadly in 2007. Maybe the last great Scutaro hit. I remember that one vividly, but can’t remember where i put my keys or my glasses.
by barryzitoforever on Apr 21, 2011 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions
To address the comment below this one
I really did feel like Scutaro could jack Rivera. I remember thinking “Scooty makes probably 1/40th of what Rivera makes, but that doesn’t mean he can’t beat him right now!” And I thought even when he was down 0-2, that he really just needed one good pitch. And then he hit it. Now how many times I thought something like that and my guy made an out, I cant really say. But on this particular day I really had the never say die attitude, even down 2 with my guy 0-2 against Rivera in the bottom of the 9th.
by barryzitoforever on Apr 21, 2011 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions
I cannot let G_S stand alone here.
Sometimes we know what’s going to happen before it happens. At least I do. And I’ve experienced it with others, so I’m going to assume they do, too.
I don’t know that it has anything necessarily to do with clutchiness. Similarly, I know it has absolutely nothing to do with statistics.
Save it for the fast money round, Paddy.
by Leopold Bloom on Apr 19, 2011 8:35 AM PDT up reply actions
mivev's point stands.
I think we confuse “really really really wanting something to happen” for “I knew that would happen” when the thing you really really really wanted to happen happens. When the thing you really really really wanted to happen doesn’t happen, I believe that data is quite literally omitted from our hearts’ Clutch Spreadsheets, much like how we don’t remember a pop fly, but remember a game winning home run.
by sleepingcobra on Apr 19, 2011 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
This.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Apr 19, 2011 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions
yeah, but what if one were so inclined to keep a real spreadsheet
of when one allowed oneself to ask/manipulate/hope/pray for an outcome, and what the outcome is?
My guess is that even if the data showed a significant correlation between the mojo and the outcome, that most people would knee-jerk react by believing the data was cooked in the first place. Am I wrong to think that?
"OK and now everybody who said 'game over' at some point
GO KNEEL IN THE CORNER!" - elcroata
by Gaijin_Suketto on Apr 19, 2011 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions
You're definitely not wrong to think that
You just aren’t going to convince anybody on AN that doesn’t already agree with you.
"Juuuuust a bit outside" - Harry Doyle
by ArunisArun on Apr 19, 2011 2:49 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Those are all big,
but I believe there’s more to it than that.
"OK and now everybody who said 'game over' at some point
GO KNEEL IN THE CORNER!" - elcroata
by Gaijin_Suketto on Apr 19, 2011 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't know how to do a study...
I guess there have been plenty of studies of people trying to predict which card will come out next, and if anyone IS capable of predicting the future, at least they have not gone public with this information in a big way. Imagine if someone could verifiably predict even 1 minute in advance. The science community would totally go ape shit trying to understand it and explain it. That dude’s normal life would be over. It would be tests for the rest of his life. Why would someone want that? I remeber early in the 2000s watching Barry Bonds just stand up out of his stance about the time the pitcher released the ball. I remember Tony Gwynn talking about it, saying, “he knows that is not a good pitch before it leaves the pitcher’s hand.” With all the steriod controversy we seem to be ignoring the fact that Bonds pitch selection was mind bogglingly good for a while. What if subconciously he could predict just 2 seconds into the future. He’d be the greatest hitter of all time….wait a minute…
by barryzitoforever on Apr 28, 2011 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions
intellectual laziness on my part, I will admit
pop-quantum physics… the idea that a certain event, say the smashing of an atom, might behave differently depending on if the event was observed or not, or possibly depending on who and/or what was observing it.
Extrapolate in a non-scientific way, add some Star Trek, and presto… the idea that our “reality” does not travel on a path, but along a near-infinite interconnected set of possibilities. People for thousands of years have believed that certain possibilities can be made more likely to happen through prayer, ritual, and trance. I share that belief. If others don’t, that’s okay too. More bandwidth for my energies, is the way I see it :)
"OK and now everybody who said 'game over' at some point
GO KNEEL IN THE CORNER!" - elcroata
by Gaijin_Suketto on Apr 19, 2011 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Ever read Cryptozoic?
I don’t want to spoil things here, but that took me a half-day to wrap my head around.
by LoneStranger on Apr 19, 2011 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions
I just wanted to say
that I really appreciate the clarity of your post. I really like that you have articulated your ability to believe the statistics and believe in the unquantifiable (even the ineffable) at the same time, without feeling the need to convince anyone else. I definitely feel this way sometimes, despite my scientific bent, and I guess I feel like it doesn’t hurt anyone if I wish really hard for the A’s to make a comeback.
I just would prefer if Geren tried more of the “make good decisions” and less of the “hope really hard that the A’s win”.
by el generico on Apr 19, 2011 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions
what about Pascal's wager.
where do you stand on that bit of meta-physics?
Prayer may or may not work, but I’ll be damned if I don’t try something, at least..
by MobiusKlein on Apr 19, 2011 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Pascal's wager is a bet without enough data to be worth placing.
A true gambler would need more information about this “God” thing. However, that’s a Commander Data answer.
My answer is that everything that exists or ever has or will exist IS God, or at least an incarnation of God, so do what thou wilt, knowing that whomsoever you fuck over is God, and whomsoever you help out is also God, so try to stay on the positive side of that balance, or at least really close to the middle.
"OK and now everybody who said 'game over' at some point
GO KNEEL IN THE CORNER!" - elcroata
by Gaijin_Suketto on Apr 19, 2011 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions
I guess I differ
I don’t believe I can make any possibilities more likely to happen through my beliefs. I do happen to believe every once in a while I can see the future a couple seconds before it happens. Maybe this is selective memory, but maybe we can analyze more data than we always understand and see an outcome which is hard to predict with normal methods. For example I would bet quite a bit of money that in the next few weeks silver will go over $50/oz. In fact I have made that bet with my pocketbook.
by barryzitoforever on Apr 21, 2011 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions
The problem is that your definition of finding clutchness is hard to disprove
"Hey anyone can join in...as long as they talk about me." - Mr. Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Apr 19, 2011 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't think that's a problem. At least not for him.
Choosy Feebas choose Leopold Bloom nipples
Daring. Sensual. Invigorating. Squirrel.
BLOOM. For men.
If the eggs actually hatch I made more than a mistake, I made some scientifically impossible crime.
by DMOAS on Apr 19, 2011 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well, for me it is hard to disprove
"Hey anyone can join in...as long as they talk about me." - Mr. Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Apr 19, 2011 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Not really
A higher batting average, all else held equal, will make the rest of your offensive stats better, including clutchness. So you would not expect any unusual lift from batting average. Sure, a higher batting average will make your clutch stats better – but only as much as would be expected from a higher batting average.
These results really shouldn’t surprise any AN regular. The main predictor of what you will do next is the entire body of work you’ve shown to date. Anyone out there think Jed Lowrie will finish the year over .500? What about .400? Or .300?
That’s not to take away from what LB and GS say above. We all have our beliefs, and expectation is one of the great joys of being a fan. But we shouldn’t expect our beliefs to actually be borne out in a consistent and measurable way . . . unless we believe the data.
It would be interesting to see how far down the skill ladder these results go. As a little league manager, I do believe that some kids are truly clutch – they care a lot more when the game is on the line and don’t melt under pressure. I don’t admire the kids for caring more when the game is on the line – it’s on the line in the first inning, too – but it’s nice that they don’t melt.
It's BASEBALL season!
by eastcoasta'sfan on Apr 19, 2011 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions
For statistical understanding,
would you amend the post to say how many stats had basically no correlation? ( 0.099 > stat > -0.099 ) or whatever your cutoff value was.
That way we have some sense of if even the listed stats have any predictive value. If it’s all chance, we would still expect to see a few stats with a correlation just by luck.
My guess
The stats above do not have meaningful predictive value – they are small numbers and weak fits. They may in part be the result of normal variation in the data and in part the result of factors that weren’t accounted for in the analysis.
It's BASEBALL season!
by eastcoasta'sfan on Apr 19, 2011 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions
agreed
Having the # of total stats helps to show that.
EG,
if you have 100 stats, and only one shows a correlation, it’s very possible that correlation is spurious.
For the record, I didn't just use a straight cutoff value.
I found the correlation for each stat for each of the five years, and threw it out if it wasn’t at all consistent from year to year. So, say, if one stat correlated at 0.3 one year and -0.2 the other year, I would have thrown it out, compared to a stat that correlated 0.1 consistently over the years. And the stats I threw out?
BB%
BB/K
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
Speed Score
BABIP
wOBA
wRC+
LD%
IFFB%
O-Swing%
Z-Swing%
Swing%
Zone%
F-Strike%
SwStr%
so there is some valid (but small) correlations
But mostly about not striking out – eg in zone & out of zone contact rates.
That does make some sense.
danm and other true statheads, correct me, but . . .
I don’t think you can actually say what Mobius said based on the data.
You (Mobius) said there are some valid but small correlations
I think the data lets you say,
“there might be some valid correlations. we can’t rule them out. but we can say that any that do in fact exist are small, and we would caution you against drawing the conclusion that there are any at all. The data does not support that well.
Any relationships are weak and are almost as likely to be spurious as they are to be real. The data supports best the notion that there are no significant and meaningful correlations between nonclutch and clutch statistics.
In plain english, there is no such thing as a clutch hitter – only good or bad hitters."
It's BASEBALL season!
by eastcoasta'sfan on Apr 19, 2011 5:48 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thanks
I’m having a little trouble following the graphic because I’m not too understanding of some of the stats themselves, but the explanations helped a bit.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
So who are the good hitters on our team?
I would say Ellis, Dejesus, Barton, Sweeney if we are going by the Clutch point of view with the non power hitter thing
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I should have included Crisp and possibly Connor Jackson in there too
I think we have a lot of potential on offense just wish we had more power
Join my Quest to bring Back Faith and Family Values in America!!! http://faithandvalues.blogspot.com/
dan, My understanding of your work( well done, by the way), is that there is no difference(statistically) between a 3-run play that happens in the 7th inning, and the one that wins the game in the bottom of the 9th.
Did I get it right?
Life insurance s..cks. I'm now worth more dead than alive.
More like there is an equal chance of success (or failure) in a high leverage situation
As there is any other time.
"Hey anyone can join in...as long as they talk about me." - Mr. Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Apr 19, 2011 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions
Sorry, that is what I meant, that the odds were the same.
Thus, a solo HR early in a game that ends up 1-0, is just as “clutch” as a GS to overcome a 3-run deficit in the 10th. To me, this shows just how important each AB and how precious outs truly are.
Life insurance s..cks. I'm now worth more dead than alive.
Couldn't agree more
Look at that game we lost in extra innings the other night. We gave up something like 6 runs in the 10th and then scored 3. We didn’t need anyone to be clutch, we just needed an extra run in the first nine innings or a pitcher to be average in the tenth. Either of those would have gotten a W. And the best way to get those things is to have generally good players, which is what we have.
I don’t care if we have a single walk-off HR this year if we end up winning 93 games.
John 3:16
I don't think WPA treats them the same. I think it treats the GW HR in the 10th as more
clutch than the GW HR in the 1st
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Apr 19, 2011 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Yep
WPA looks at the odds of winning before and after an event.
1 run HR in the first might take you from 50% ish to 55 or 60%ish
A GW 3 run HR in the bottom of the ninth probably takes you from 5%ish to 100%. Big big WPA difference.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Mainly because of how vital the one play is to the outcome of the game in the latter stages, yes?
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Right.
A 1-0 lead with 8 innings to play is good, but in all of the games where it has happened, the team with the run has only won X% of the time (I’m guessing 55-60%). Since WPA starts at 50/50 each game, that isn’t a lot of WPA (Win Probability Added).
A 4-3 lead after 9 innings is called a win (100%). A 1-3 deficit in the bottom of the ninth is a loss nearly always (I’m guessing 95% of the time). So turning that 5% chance at winning to 100% is a lot of WPA.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Are WPA and WPA Clutch Score the same thing?
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
No
WPA Clutch is the context-rich performance minus the context-neutral performance. So that 3 run walkoff HR is nearly a whole win by itself in context-rich, but HRs are good context neutral. A 3 run walkoff double is about the same WPA, but doubles are less good context neutral, so the double is more clutch.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Yeah, just googled it
Thanks, though.
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
What you're saying may be true, as far as the value during the game, but not as to the value of the individual play itself..
If, you were able to analyze the 1st inning HR after the 1-0 game outcome, wouldn’t it rate just as valuable? In terms of “clutchness”, the odds of success are the same
Life insurance s..cks. I'm now worth more dead than alive.
It'd be more valuable in that case
But 1-0 games are quite uncommon overall, especially 1-0 games where the only run comes in the first inning. The longer that game stays 0-0, the more weight that first run carries.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I thought the point of dan's research was that the odds of the outcome late in the game wasn't significantly different from earlier in the game. wasn't
Therefore, the fourth run in a 4-3 game is the most important, no matter when it happens.
Life insurance s..cks. I'm now worth more dead than alive.
You're talking about different measurements.
WPA is simply a measurement of changes in odds of winning over the course of a game.
“Clutch skill” would be someone who concentrated their production into important situations year after year.
Just because there is no measurable clutch skill does not mean there are not clutch situations. It just means WPA is a poor way to evaluate a team’s talent.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Ok,
The problem for me, was that I didn’t bring WPA into the discussion. I was just remarking that, when analyzing after the game, the winning run was clutch, no matter when it was scored. I wasn’t trying to infer that the odds of scoring that winning run earlier was equal to later.
Life insurance s..cks. I'm now worth more dead than alive.
...and, the odds a certain player to get that "clutch hit" doesn't change just because of the point of the game
Life insurance s..cks. I'm now worth more dead than alive.
See I don't think that's true though
I fundamentally believe in the leverage index (as, at least, a storytelling device). “Clutch” situations are situations where the odds of winning can change dramatically. They are not retroactively determined.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Apr 19, 2011 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
this
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Apr 19, 2011 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Sure, but it sounds like we're talking about two different things here
If you’re already up 2-0 and it’s in the second inning, let’s say you hit a 2-run homer. Since you’re already up 2-0 at that point and stretching the lead, your probability of winning is only going to increase from somewhere over 50% to even higher. It’s still not 100% at that point, but the importance of the extra runs goes up as the other team makes the game closer later on.
Flip it around and say you’re down 3-0 going to the second (you being the home team, in this case) and you put up 4 there. You’re going from a sub-50% probability of winning to over 50%, but while that probability increases the more innings go by, the weight of the runs aren’t as much when they’re earlier and I don’t think that changes just because the score stays the same.
If you’re down 3-2 in the 9th your win probability is fairly low. Say you hit that same 2-run homer. This time it’s ending the game, flipping your win probability to 100%, and the weight of it is much, much higher because it was at the end of the game.
Whenever you drive runs in, it’s a “clutch” situation. The weight of it just depends on when they happen. If you ever look at those win probability charts that track moments of each game and highlight the ones that flip it around one way or the other, you’ll also see a bar graph at the bottom. Low and green means they’re not very important. High and red means they’re critical situations to the outcome of the game.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
This last part is right on
Those bars are measuring the potential change. So if you’re up 20 – 0 you’re at like 99%+ to win, so hitting a HR doesn’t matter in the last, but neither does striking out. Thus there would be essentially no bar.
Bases loaded bottom of the ninth down by 3 two outs, however, a strikeout sends you to zero and a HR sends you to 100, so the bar is at maximum.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Here's a perfect example
Those three red ones were the Suzuki/Sweeney/Pennington ABs in the 9th.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I thought dan's point was that the odds of any one player being successful doesn't change just because of the situation.
Life insurance s..cks. I'm now worth more dead than alive.
Sure, but we've kind of started going into different territory with other situations
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Of course, the one player who seems to defy the norm is...
SCOTT BROSIUS!!!
Life insurance s..cks. I'm now worth more dead than alive.
That's true
Players who have clutch hits are no more likely to exceed their normal production going forward than players who do not.
Doesn’t mean their hits weren’t clutch at the time.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I agree.
Shouldn’t the effect that a particular play has on a game be determined after the game?
Life insurance s..cks. I'm now worth more dead than alive.
No
Here’s an example:
A’s down 2-1 in the bottom of the eigth. Willingham homers. Bullpen gives up 7 runs in the ninth. A’s lose 9-2.
Was Willingham’s HR not clutch?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Like the A's bullpen would give up 7 in an inning....
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Not really
They all happen independently of other game events, so you can only measure the weight of it at the time relative to the place the game’s at.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I do have another question though.
I Kouz drives in the go-ahead run in the 2nd, and Willingham drives in the winning run in the 9th, aren’t they both of the same value?
Life insurance s..cks. I'm now worth more dead than alive.
Nope
The leverage of the earlier run wouldn’t be the same, even though it’s still important. Look at the graph from the Giants game below. They got 5 in the first but none of those are any higher than about a 2 in leverage because at that point there’s still so much time left in the game.
Same situation with Kouzmanoff getting a go-ahead RBI in the 2nd compared to the winning run at the end.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Compare to the Giants game yesterday
Giants went up by a ton early and the rest of the game was academic at that point.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
What I get from it is that the players who seem most clutchy often
1. Have high batting averages
2. Hit more ground balls (which produces higher batting averages)
3. Make more contact
Basically, guys like Pedro Feliz and Kevin Kouzmanoff are “good RBI guys” while also being “bad hitters,” and guys like Placido Polanco always have the kinds of ABs that will tend to produce “clutch hits!!!!”, while guys like Jack Cust and Carlos Pena get over-criticized because we remember the strickouts and forget the walks.
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I didn't get that at all. I got...no type of hitter is more likely to win you the game than another
type of equally good hitter. I think it shows that Feliz and Kouzmanoff aren’t good RBI hitters because they’re not good hitters. Cust and Pena are better hitters and are therefore good RBI hitters. It says nothing about being over-criticized
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by WaddellCanseco on Apr 19, 2011 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don't think that's how it goes
I think the same mechanism that helps Feliz and Kouz get decent RBI numbers helps give them the perception of being more clutchy, simply because the one thing they do well is “get hits reasonably often.”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
wait
Kouz gets hits reasonably often? Since when?
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His SD days.
I’ll bet he was regarded by Padres’ fans as a pretty clutch hitter relative to what he actually was.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
My orange/black fan acquiantances seemed to regard him as a "Giant killer" for what it's worth
by Glorious Mundy on Apr 19, 2011 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, yes
But he was a better player, then.
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by cuppingmaster on Apr 19, 2011 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Sounds like you're commenting on perception of clutchiness and not clutchiness itself
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by WaddellCanseco on Apr 19, 2011 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Exactly. I'm commenting on POC vs. CI
saying that CI is pretty static but that POC is very different for different types of hitters. So while they’re close to “one and the same” for some hitters, they diverge for others.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
This is too strong
With a runner on third, two outs, and a tie game in the bottom of the ninth, I’d rather have a Freddy Sanchez .300 slap hitter than a .400 OBP .225 hitter.
But, of course, with better hitters you might avoid the situation entirely so it isn’t worth setting a lineup for.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Yeah, there are situations where you probably do want a certain type of hitter up compared to another
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Yep. Even if the hitter is worse over all.
They’re just rare.
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Or a Double Winner!
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by WaddellCanseco on Apr 19, 2011 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
A wash? Today?!
It’s not even Sunday!
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Your post was good too. I forgot to comment over there.
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by Gaijin_Suketto on Apr 19, 2011 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions
This was a good post, of course.
I like that you’re trying to find some value somewhere for “clutchiness”
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by Gaijin_Suketto on Apr 19, 2011 12:14 PM PDT reply actions
If clutchness is correlated with offensuve traits
The A’s lack a lot of them often it seems
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by Athletic on Apr 19, 2011 5:57 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
I'd read "Baseball between the Numbers" Study
Which found that there is some correlation between high walks/low strikeouts and “clutchness,” as defined by WPA – WPA/LI. That seems to corroborate what you are finding. However, another way to explain it would be that players with better bat control (and thus, few strikeouts, small O-swing %, etc.) do better in the “clutch” stat as defined above because they can swing for a single if a single is needed, swing for a double if a double is needed, slap a grounder to the right side on an 0-2 slider if there’s a runner on 2nd and none out, etc. That would probably be more an example of good situational hitting than clutchness as we typically think of it.
Another potential explanation for this correlation is that good relievers are brought in during situations with high leverage (well…when Geren isn’t managing), and guys with good bat control are better equipped to hit good pitches than the Pat Burrells and Jeff Francoeurs of the world.
All those stats suggest clutchiness correlates with hitting grounders (as opposed to Ks or FBs)
I wonder how much of that is due to specialized infield configurations that are more likely to occur in high leverage situations—holding runners on or playing the infield in. Groundballs that would normally be outs can become hits in these situations, whereas FBs and Ks are the same in both contexts.
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