Starting Pitcher Number Five
Brandon McCarthy goes for what will likely be his last start of the Spring today (at least in AZ, he may go against the Giants next Weds.) and it appears, at least according to all media accounts, that he is the front runner in the 5th starter race. Why, other than his age and experience, I'm not entirely sure, since he and Tyson Ross have had very similarly impressive springs.
Yes - Ross's K/BB ratio isn't quite at the level of McCarthy's (McCarthy has yet to surrender a single BB!) but otherwise, he's been equally as locked in this spring. McCarthy seems to have an edge in his ability to, or at least the coaching staffs willingness to let him pitch deeper into games; however, Ross has been equally, if not more efficient, averaging nearly 3 fewer pitches per IP than McCarthy this spring.
I suppose you could make the argument that the A's management is hesitant to move too fast with Ross, much like they did last year, based on his impressive spring alone. Perhaps they want to see him dominate at the AAA a little more before they bring him up. Maybe they want to keep him, at least early on, in an environment where they can keep his pitch count down early in the season without worrying about it impacting games so much. But if they are planning to award the 5th starter spot based purely the pitcher's ability to get major leaguers out, I think he's got to still be highly considered for the role.
What I hope they do not do, is put him in the bullpen as a long reliever. I'd rather see him kept stretched out for a starting role in Sacramento than have him biding his time on the bullpen bench and occasionally pitching every 5th or 6th day.
What is Tyson Ross's fate come April 1st? Will McCarthy's performance today even play into the decision, or has he already been anointed the #5 starter as many of the beat writers have implied?
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Or we could send McCarthy there to do whatever he wants instead
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 26, 2011 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions
I know this is the popular school of thought right now
but why? What has he done this spring to indicate that he needs more seasoning in minors? I’m not sure if his arbitration clock has already started based on his appearances last year, but he represents a significantly more important long term investment than McCarthy – why shouldn’t he be the one benefiting from major league exposure and playing time? With our bullpen, if he can only give us 5-6 innings on average as the 5th starter, that’s not the worst scenario in the world. It’s not as if he hasn’t faced his fair share of major league hitters between last year and this spring. He seems to be throwing strikes, and he’s throwing all three of his pitches consistently and effectively. What else does Beane/Geren need to see?
It is a nice dilemma to have, I’ll give you that. And I suppose I’d rather see him get seasoning at the AAA level than rushed into starting in the big leagues and face the prospect of failure before he’s been able to build up his confidence. But everything indicates he’s ready for the show.
Thank you
Why is right.
This seems to me yet another one of those stubborn baseball-isms, too conservative for reasons nobody really has a good answer for.
I’ve yet to find out accurately the difference in their respective options. Only that, to me, could explain it. Or i suppose it could be Ross is trying harder to just get outs anyway possible during the meaningless spring while McCarthy is “working on things.”
But if it’s not that latter factor, then again, i agree, why?
I would put it further. If Ross is supposedly going to break down someday due to his motion, why not get him up helping and gaining trade value before this impending demise instead of getting nothing from him on the field or in trade value?
Baseball has got to either stop this kind of non-reason or better explain why McCarthy all spring has been talked up as the obvious choice despite Ross pitching all along just as well (and after today better.) The reasons i here are flimsy at best.
by supersugarCrisp on Mar 25, 2011 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree with this 100%.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 26, 2011 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Both of these guys will get plenty of starts in the Majors this year
I would start Ross in AAA and call him up when the first starter goes down but I would not be disappointed if he is on the big league team. And remember, Cahill started last season in AAA, so whatever the decision is for 5th starter things can always change once the season gets going.
"Everybody in the building is standing except for people in a wheelchair." - Doug Woog
"It’s like the lost burrito of Atlantis." - jeepers
by Where's My Burrito? on Mar 25, 2011 11:41 AM PDT reply actions
that's a great point about Cahill
and for him it proved to be a very positive experience. I think Ross is in a similar place this year, having tasted life in the majors last year and having dealt with some troubles along the way. The one major difference would be that Ross has had an outstanding spring this year, whereas Cahill struggled last year during the spring, and was thus more likely to understand his being sent down.
You’re right, though – it’s not as though these two guys won’t both get their opportunities this year.
I agree that Ross will get starts no matter where he begins the season, but I object to McCarthy getting starts
while we have other options
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 26, 2011 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions
FWIW
McCarthy is getting lit up right now by perhaps our biggest division rivals, the Angels. 5 ER on 7 hits through 4 innings. Something tells me, however, he may not be showing them his entire repertoire of pitches – with 30 pitches thrown thus far, he’s thrown 28 for strikes, and 2 for balls. That’s a pretty ridiculous strike to ball ratio, and it means he’s also serving up some pretty hittable stuff to a team that is known to be aggressive at the plate, so maybe this not totally unintentional.
How many times was the ball put into play?
I don’t think there’s pitch fx during spring training, so every ball that’s hit is calleda strike.
by ilikeike on Mar 25, 2011 7:26 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I also think that data is way off right now
I think there was a game where after about 6 IP it showed one of the pitchers with something like “28 pitches, 28 strikes.”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
The way it works from what I've gathered is as follows
1) Any strikeout = 3 pitches all strikes
2) Any walk = 4 pitches all balls
3) Any hit = 1 pitch, 1 strike
Therefore you could have a guy go to three 3-2 counts, with four foul-offs per batter, but eventually strike everyone out and instead of saying 9 balls, 21 strikes, 28 pitches. It’d read 9 pitches, 9 strikes.
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Well that's an excellent mirror for how pitchers are actually throwing.
Well done, gameday.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
yeah - why even have gameday available then?!
it’s totally misleading. The live box score would be far more useful in that case.
Not that either Billy or Bob have asked me,
but I would go with McCarthy in the fifth spot based on his age, contract, and most importantly, the hope that, since he is currently healthy, he can fulfill the promise of his pedigree.
I would put Ross in AAA, so that he can gain experience as a starter (using three pitches) and be ready if (when?) one of the first five go down.
That leaves Cramer for the long relief/spot start role, which fits his age and “non-prospect” status.
"We've come a long way, and I'm not talking about Virginia Slims, either." - Art Howe
WTF does age and contract have to do with winning?
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 26, 2011 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions
agreed
allotting playing time by those standards amounts to a losing season in most cases. Brian Sabean finally started to wise up to that and it earned him a world championship.
by oakballnack on Mar 26, 2011 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions
My answer is in a reply to myself rather than to you.
Not helping my credibility there.
"We've come a long way, and I'm not talking about Virginia Slims, either." - Art Howe
I should have been more clear.
I don’t think Ross is better than McCarthy at this moment due to lack of a strong third pitch. I do think that can change with more starting experience. I did not care for his use out of the bullpen last year; I believe he and the team would have been better served with him starting games in the minors all year.
"We've come a long way, and I'm not talking about Virginia Slims, either." - Art Howe
That's a better argument, but does McCarthy have a strong third pitch?
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 26, 2011 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions
McCarthy has a very strong curveball, and he throws three types of fast ball
he can cut it, sink it using the two-seamer, and he will (less these days) throw a straight four seam fastball. So I guess you could say he has 4 pitches. I don’t think any one of them are above 50 on the traditional 20-80 scale. I think he throws a change, but it’s not really a strong offering.
by oakballnack on Mar 27, 2011 12:08 AM PDT up reply actions
My vote:
McCarthy, #5 starter, Ross in AAA as “#6 starter,” Cramer, Moscoso, or my Aunt Bertha as the “innings eater who never pitches” long reliever.
Stuff changes fast and a lot — this is only for April 1st, not forever.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Fair enough
But assuming it’s not about the options:
1. Either could be pulled up when the expected injuries happen.
2. Both will get their work in either way (assuming neither is wasted as long man.)
3. Both are young. So what if Ross is a bit younger, he did already get his feet wet last year, so it’s not like he’s that green.
4. Alluding to my point from earlier in this thread, “I would put it further. If Ross is supposedly going to break down someday due to his motion, why not get him up helping and gaining trade value before this impending demise instead of getting nothing from him on the field or in trade value?”
I’m happy they’re not messing with his mechanics ‘cause there’s no proof that’d work and then you get zilch. And i don’t “want” to trade Ross. But, if the truth of the matter is Ross does have mechanics that very possibly lead to injury, why, with Ross pitching so well, would you not start getting something from him before he gets hurt? Put his skills out there so in case you sense the injury risk getting worse you can trade him for more since he’s then done something good at the major league level.
Sure, it could be they start him and he doesn’t pitch well, losing confidence and trade value. Same goes for McCarthy though. I doubt his age makes that much difference. Many young people are way more mature than myself, for example.
But, again, Ross has been in the league before already. He has a good head on his shoulders. He is showing he’s ready and he does have these motion issues.
I don’t buy it, obviously.
Ross for #5! Go A’s!
by supersugarCrisp on Mar 25, 2011 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions
If I hear that Ross's changeup and control are looking "ready for prime time,"
I’m with you. But if (as I suspect), he’s still a “work-in-progress” with a great arm, then I think he’s better served opening the season at AAA.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Which leads one to wonder..
…how much both McCarthy and Ross were respectively working on pitches vs trying their hardest, no matter how, to just get outs.
If one (McCarthy) was working on things while the other (Ross) was just trying to get outs anyway possible, only then does it make sense to me that McCarthy all this time has been thought of so clearly the option to go with.
But, i see no evidence of that. And as you say, Ross has been working on the change and control. Looks like despite pitching while working on those things, he’s still done quite well. So, either those things have improved or he’s just that good despite them not improving much. Either way…
To my eyes they’re both trying to make a name for themselves, earn a spot. They’re both likely mixing working on stuff while attempting to pitch as well as possible.
If McCarthy has been moved around by teams, which he has, then he clearly too has pitches and “things” to work on. Why do we only hear about Ross this way?
Right now Ross is pitching just as well, and arguably better than McCarthy.
I suppose i can buy that experience tells the higher ups that McCarthy’s mix is more regular season friendly (i.e. better hitters, going longer in games etc.) But to me it just seems like baseball-speak that Ross’s pitches somehow aren’t as far along as McCarthy’s while McC is no sure thing at all either.
Or, just say (the A’s) that it isn’t really an open comp. Be more straight (so Ross doesn’t get pissed) with Ross and be clear so and so is what he’s there to work on.
My inclination is that the A’s have been all along set that somehow McCarthy fits the profile (through his being slightly more experienced at the MLB level) and Ross fits the profile of being young enough to put back down without upsetting him more than McCarthy would be upset…or something like that.
I would prefer the pitcher who can help us now the most since everything (assuming options again) else is equal.
Then on top of that there’s this whole issue of Ross supposedly being a huge future injury risk, which leads me to think we should “get him while he’s hot” and get performance and trade value before we get neither.
by supersugarCrisp on Mar 25, 2011 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions
I look at the fact that McCarthy has been pitching in regular games every 5 days,
while Ross has had more minor league games or shorter stints. It leads me to believe the A’s think Ross could use some more seasoning no matter how good he looks now, and that if healthy McCarthy is a good bet. Now watch Ross win it.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Yeah
Today’s outing by McCarthy takes away the easy choice. Now there’s more to weigh for management.
Now there’s a clear “winner” in straight up numbers, Ross. So, even if they feel those numbers don’t mean anything (and they probably don’t) it looks bad to Ross if he’s not chosen.
I guess i’m cool with either one, but feel Ross is more electric, higher upside. And he seems ready to me.
But that’s why they make the big bucks and i sit here in the basement.
by supersugarCrisp on Mar 25, 2011 6:00 PM PDT up reply actions
You yourself acknowledge that the stats dont mean anything
So I don’t think anything “looks bad” if Ross isn’t chosen. Jemile Weeks leads out team in batting average hitting .435 does it “look bad” when we give the backup gig to Eric Sogard (MLB experience: 9 plate appearances)?
I think Ross has pitched well this spring, outside of today McCarthy has too. Ross imploded last season starting off strong and then quickly unraveling. When McCarthy is completely competent why rush Ross when you don’t have to? Let him continue to grow at Sacramento and come to the Majors a more complete pitcher. We should take advantage of the luxury we have.
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OK
But just for clarity, i said the #s “probably” don’t mean anything, and there is my admittedly somewhat outside the box point about Ross being a high future injury risk and we should start getting something from him asap instead of wasting him (again, if he indeed is ready) only to have him get hurt.
But overall, i’m ready to concede that it’s likely small potato’s in the grand scheme of things.
And i have nothing against McCarthy. I do really like Ross’s stuff/upside though.
by supersugarCrisp on Mar 25, 2011 6:32 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm with you on not wasting Ross
By “probably don’t mean anything” I assume you mean they “could mean something” right? Regardless, though I am with you on not wasting Ross and I too love his upside. But I don’t think we pitch the crap out of him waiting for the inevitable injury, because I see it as a waste if we rush him to the majors, he just gets shelled and then gets injured, or we rush him, he gets shelled his career falls off track and he ends up being continually subpar nibbling instead of being aggressive and never gets injured but is never very good. I don’t think you develop a player well if you treat him like some ticking time bomb, ultimately everyone can get an injury at any time.
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
OK
It’s not that i think the A’s should (’ve now, McCarthy named #5) pitch Ross into the ground.
#5’s don’t have to pitch as deep into games. The A’s ‘pen and strong rest of rotation should make innings a non issue. Absolutely, keep Ross’s pitches down (wherever he is) if that’s what he needs.
All i’m saying is if Ross indeed has motion issues that could lead to injury, and he’s right now pitching lights out (we don’t know he’s doing so in meaningful games, but he sure just did in ST games) why not go with it?
He could fall back, but that wouldn’t be the end of the world (i don’t see him as emotionally fragile, likely to “lose confidence” too much, and he’s already gone through half a season in the bigs.)
What if Ross is ready is basically what i’m asking. If he is, then that combined with his injury risk makes it the sooner the better to both glean his readiness into wins at the major league level AND start others noticing that so his trade value is heightened (which then gives you the option of sensing the likelihood of these foreseen arm problems coming on and moving him for much more, a win win situation or set of options.)
by supersugarCrisp on Mar 26, 2011 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't think it's accurate to say "#5s don't have to pitch as deep into games."
I do, however, think it’s accurate to say that they generally don’t.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
if they had to
then they would. I think it’s more accurate to say “they’re not expected to pitch deep into games.”
by oakballnack on Mar 27, 2011 12:10 AM PDT up reply actions
Rule #1: Conclude NOTHING from any one spring training start.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Who is?
The point is only that after today’s statistical input, the OVERALL #s for spring now weigh in Ross’s favor. That’s all.
by supersugarCrisp on Mar 25, 2011 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Again, so what?
The “overall numbers” mean nothing, as today’s start illustrates. The “overall numbers” are an average of early spring training starts (utterly meaningless), later ones (a little less meaningless), skewed by any one outlier (like today).
Seriously, ignore all the numbers and look at things like sums95 lists.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Oh
I hear that. But then why even have the “competition” in the first place?
How does one judge the little things these guys are working on in spring? How well they pitch has to come into play a bit.
If Ross is getting good hitters out, consistently, then maybe his arsenal is more ready than some think. And again, what is so great about McCarthy?
And, just to make sure folks know, i do not and have not ever suggested Ross as longman.
by supersugarCrisp on Mar 26, 2011 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions
You focus mostly on process.
Velocity, control, command of secondary pitches, and so on. The “competition” is to see who is more ready to pitch in the big league rotation in April, but the answer may be “The guy with worse numbers.”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Yup.
My major questions for McCarthy are…
- Control
- Velocity
- Ability to get ground outs via the sinker.
If he has all 3, he has to be the starter. There is absolutely no reason to have Ross as the long man since Cramer can do it. I think that McCarthy has done enough to be the 5th starter and Ross will come up whenever one of our pitchers go down.
I'd love to know what he was throwing today
if he had gone back to the 4-seamer just to get his final spring work in – if he was just throwing the cutter. Whatever it was, it wasn’t effective against the angels, at least not the 2nd time through the lineup. Maybe HE should be the long man, with Ross starting. Ross seemed pretty effective almost a full 3 times through the lineup yesterday, and facing a comparable offense to Anaheim.
Also, unless he’s throwing in the mid-low 80’s I don’t really care about velocity with McCarthy, especially if he has gone to primarily the cutter and sinker as reported. He was never a guy to light up the radar guns, and he certainly has average velocity at best for a RHP, so as long as he’s getting plenty of movement on his cutter and sinker and is able to throw strikes consistently (which he has throughout his career) then I’m happy enough…as long as Ross is in Sac, and not the bullpen.
My major questions for McCarthy are...
— Why have you sucked since 2005
— What makes any more likely to succeed than Andy LaRoche
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 26, 2011 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Indeed, I'd give Andy LaRoche a MUCH higher
probability for success based on health alone.
by oakballnack on Mar 26, 2011 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't like Cramer in long relief....
I have to admit. I know it’s an unpopular sentiment around here, but I don’t particularly like Cramer pitching in any role…for our big league team, at least. I think the novelty of his DiNardo-like deception will, if it hasn’t already, wear off. I think it’s pointless to have a team with such a good pitching staff and then carelessly mis-staff the last spot on said staff with a sub-par arm, just because he lost out in the 5th starter race. I see Cramer as insurance, should we need a 8th or 9th starting pitcher, not much else.
Agreed
Soft tossers get figured out before too long unless they’re Greg Maddux or the old man in Philly. Cramer ain’t no Greg Maddux or Jamie Moyer.
by supersugarCrisp on Mar 25, 2011 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Maddux was not a soft tosser and he had lots of strikeouts
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 26, 2011 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Good point
I suppose i meant finesse sort. And early in his career Maddux wasn’t even so much that, just later, which i remember, admittedly, moreso.
by supersugarCrisp on Mar 26, 2011 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Except long-relief is one of the few places you DON'T want to go with
“best player available.” Ross is far better than Cramer — and it’s for precisely that reason I don’t want Ross wasting away in a mop-up role.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Agreed Nico
Wasn’t implying either McCarthy or Ross be long man. Just agreeing with Oakballnack that Cramer doesn’t instill confidence longterm in any role.
by supersugarCrisp on Mar 25, 2011 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions
yes
and because I want him stretched out and starting, preferably in Oakland, but if not, in Sac, should we need him.
As far as a suitable long man – I’d prefer they go with someone like De Los Santos (they may want to limit him to 2 IP per appearance, max, though), but Cramer should be serviceable until Outman is ready to fill the spot.
Apparently De Los Santos looked really far from ready to pitch in the big leagues.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Aren't "2 IP per appearance" and "suitable long man" contradictory?
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
hence the
“,though” at the end of the parenthetic disclaimer.
I’m not sure what their approach would be with him. Since he was a starter for most of his career prior to his TJS, it might not be that much of a stretch for him to occasionally throw 3+ innings. I don’t know what the A’s have in mind for him, however, as far as workload is concerned.
by oakballnack on Mar 27, 2011 12:13 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm with you despite Cramer being a guy I look to root for
I don’t get why Fernando Cabrera or Yadel Marti were given up on so fast. I think they’d be nice additions to the pen and with Fuentes and Breslow I don’t think we need another lefty out there (Blevins)
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
Marti and Cabrera were intriguing
possibilities for that long relief role. Marti only had one halfway bad outing, and Cabrera, despite being knocked around a couple of times, had some very good shut down type outings. I think guys like Anthony Capra, Travis Banwart and Brad Kilby (assuming he recovers fully from his shoulder/lat ailments) might also make some appearances in that role this season. Let’s sign Pedro Martinez for another come back half-season out of the pen!
I really hope we don't see Anthony Capra or Travis Banwart in the major leagues.
That would mean a boatload of injuries.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 26, 2011 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Long/Middle Relievers
form such a transient group of players, so historically fraught with injuries and inconsistency, that no, baring transactions, I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or more of those guys make a couple of appearances in mop-up/long relief. If they ever make it to the majors, it will be in that capacity, believe me – I’m with you in my low regard for the state of A’s pitching in the upper levels of our system.
by oakballnack on Mar 26, 2011 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions

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