Trevor Cahill Interview: Part I
by Nico on Mar 23, 2011 4:30 PM PDT
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Introduction
In some ways, my favorite aspect of this interview is not in the exact content but rather in my apparently "beating the odds." When I first got down to the dugout, Susan Slusser said, "I heard you've got 10 minutes with Cahill," and when I said yes she replied, "I hope you brought a lot of questions." "He's not real chatty?" I asked. "Nope."
Then I saw Jane Lee, who said, "You have 10 minutes with Cahill? You'll only need 3." That bad, so bad that everyone felt compelled to warn me of the awkward doom that lay ahead?
Even Kristy Fick, who arranged the interview for me, seemed keen to know if I had prepared a lot of questions and I just said, "Yeah, I think I'll be fine," opting not to admit I had only scribbled 5 phrases like "FIP" and "White Rabbit" on the back of my press credential to remind me of topics I wanted to cover.
Well, the interview is 20 minutes long. 15 minutes in, I said, "I think I've used my allotted time with you," and Cahill said, "It doesn't matter," and we continued. I was the one who stopped the interview after 20 minutes when I saw that Kristy Fick was pacing a bit and I wanted to make sure I didn't overstay my welcome.
So to Sluss, Jane, Kristy, and others, I say, "Ha! Ye of little faith!" To Cahill, a genuinely nice, thoughtful, and articulate guy, I say thank you for being so generous with your time. And to AN, I just say that I hope you enjoy this two-part chat with the only baby-faced pterodactyl in all of baseball.
Part I, running today (after the jump), is all about Trevor Cahill, the pitcher. Part II, running tomorrow, is mostly about Trevor Cahill, the guy.
Nico: This is for Athletics Nation, and you're a strangely controversial figure on there because you keep outperforming what the predictive statistics say you should be able to do. Partly because you don't strike out a lot of guys, you put a lot of balls in play. So one of the things I was interested in trying to find out is, how aware you make yourself of the stats out there that say, "Here's what you need to do to continue that success. Do you look at the stats, like "Fielding Independent Pitching" --
Cahill: Naw. I don't know anybody that does, because it doesn't really affect how you're gonna pitch. I go out there. I'm trying to get a weak ground ball. I'm a sinker guy, not a strikeout guy, so my goal is to go keep it in the game, get a lot of early action. I'm not a guy -- like if I get 0-2 or something, I don't have Gio's curveball or Brett's slider, where I can just punch ‘em out. I'm trying to locate sinker and if he takes it for a strike, good, and if he swings hopefully he just hits a weak ground ball, or a chopper to shortstop or second base or something.
Nico: Do you feel that you have any influence over how hard the ground balls are hit off you?
Cahill: Yeah, definitely. If you make a good pitch, if you set a guy up, like if I throw a lot of fastballs and then throw a good changeup down in the zone, I'd like to think he's not gonna hit it as hard as if he's looking for a changeup and just gets on top of it, or vice-versa. So yeah, definitely. Obviously, sometimes, the weaker ground balls are gonna - they'll beat it out - but if you're going up against a big power guy you're gonna want to get a weak ground ball.
Nico: So, what would be the summary of the things you do to try to intentionally induce weak contact, versus solid contact?
Cahill: Basically, keep the ball low in the zone, on the corners, just like everybody else does, I guess. Change speeds - I change speeds a lot, like 2-0, if I threw him two fastballs at 90MPH, I might take off and throw an 85MPH sinker, and hopefully, he sees it and gets out in front of it a little bit and hits the ball to 2B.
Nico: Can you explain actually, for fans who don't know, what are the things you physically do when you throw the "BP (batting practice) fastball" -- you know, to add and subtract?
Cahill: I move my thumb up a little bit on the ball, and mostly I just don't try and throw it as hard -- just kinda throw like it was "bullpen": Just kinda throw it and let the movement work. It's not like I grip it a whole lot different...(laughs) I just don't throw it as hard.
Nico: So how do you keep the same arm speed? It has to always look the same to the hitter, right?
Cahill: Yeah, I think if I was throwing 80MPH or 78MPH it would look a lot different. But the difference between throwing -- I don't think they're gonna pick up 86MPH vs. if I throw a fastball 90MPH. It's just such a slick difference; they're having a hard enough time trying to hit a small ball and I don't think they're gonna notice the arm speed a whole lot.
Nico: It's probably important to remember that -- that the pitcher succeeds most of the time. I mean, when you're going out, trying to have confidence against a tough hitter. What are the things that you do to psych yourself up when you're in a bad situation?
Cahill: I just stay loose most of the time; I try to joke around. I'm not a guy that feeds off of my adrenaline, I'm a guy that changes speeds. So I'm not gonna be able to get super pumped up and if I start trying to throw too hard, I'm gonna do worse because I'll leave the ball up, my ball won't move as much. So I have to be as relaxed as possible, and just try to have fun.
Nico: They usually say that sinkerballers, if anything, are better when they're tired. Have you found that when you're really fresh, or when you're really tired, there's a difference?
Cahill: They say that. Sometimes, definitely as far as the strikeouts go, if I'm tired or it's late in the game, or it's just one of those days where you don't feel you have your velocity, sometimes I do well, I get lot of ground balls but I find I'm not striking a lot of guys out. It's usually when I feel crisp, that's when I feel I can really put a guy away, when I'm ahead in the count. It's certainly a good thing that you have your movement even when you're tired, so I guess that's one of the good things about being a sinkerballer.
Nico: One of things I think is kind of cool about your path is it seems like you're really comfortable experimenting with different pitches, and throwing a bullpen saying, "Hey let's try..." I mean, you've already gone knuckle-curve to slider to curve -- what are the things you're most focused on, in terms of your repertoire and your abilities going forward, if you want to sustain the success instead of stagnating?
Cahill: I think just obviously fastball command. I was just talking to the pitching coach (Ron Romanick) today about it, and we were talking about just getting my fastball command and letting all the other stuff come off that, because I feel if I have my command on my fastball down I give myself a fighting shot and then I can work on the other stuff. But first things first: Get the fastball working both sides of the plate and then obviously next I'd start working on my changeup, and then just kind of go from there. It's just one of those foundation things, you've got to get that down especially here in the spring. I mean we had a couple bullpen sessions where we just threw fastballs to one side of the plate and the next day we did fastball/changeup.
Nico: Are you interested in expanding your repertoire, or do you have the repertoire you think you want to have for your career?
Cahill: No, I mean today I was throwing (hesitates)...a different pitch and (laughs, knowing I want to know what pitch and that he almost said it) and just the pitching coach won't allow it. ("Really?") Yeah, it's one of those things -- guys always try to work on stuff, and I think sometimes I get carried away and it kind of takes away from me working on what I should be working on. It's one of those things also that's kinda fun and gives you something to look forward to, "Oh I can't wait to go try out my new pitch today."
Nico: Well, you don't want to be 47 and suddenly realize, "I had this great pitch that I never used."
Cahill: Yeah, I mean, that's the thing. I think maybe if I start getting in trouble I can start experimenting with a different curve ball or cutter, or different kind of slider, or whatever, but right now especially in spring training I'm just trying to get the fundamentals down: the fastball/changeup command, worked on my curveball last start, and just kind of go from there.
Stay Part II runs Thursday at 4:30pm...
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Awesome.
Can’t wait for the second part.
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
hell hath no fury like a Cowboys fan scorned. -Leopold Bloom
Great interview!
Good questions and Trevor didn’t give a single answer of the “go out there and give 110%” variety.
Liking this so far
And fairly interesting answers, especially in the wake of the expectations the others had for this going in, heh.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Actually, it's close to what I expected to hear
He’s aware of FIP, but he’s not really a strikeout pitcher, so what can you do?
Certainly there’s nothing wrong with what he’s attempting to do (command his fastball and keep it low in the strike zone).
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
What I meant there was more to do with the expected short answers and very brief interview SuSlu, etc. figured Nico would get
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Oh, yeah, I get what you're saying now
I thought you were referring to us (and I think a lot of people here were sort of hoping for some juicy stuff from this interview).
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Yeah, I didn't expect anything earth-shattering from him
But I still liked the answers as pertaining to what he’s trying to do out there.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I think this Inteview is quite juicy...
And would go so far as to say earth shattering. To hear other reporters say he doesn’t have too much to say and then get him to open up about what he is trying to do, his approach, his sincerity and honesty. I already loved this guy before reading this, but like someone else said, he just became my favorite player.
by barryzitoforever on Mar 24, 2011 7:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Thanks. I was pleasantly surprised,
and he certainly climbed my fan side’s “favorite player” ladder in the process.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Basically exactly what MO said.
I stopped working to read this. Great interview, Nico.
I'm here to talk about the past.
Terrific interview!
Great questions. I like how you approached it in a conversational style which probably contributed in your success in getting complete sentences out of him. Looking forward to the second part.
Great job, Nico
I’m really glad you asked him exactly how to “add and subtract” on the fastball. I’ve never heard a pitcher explain exactly how he does that. It’s interesting that he thinks the hitters won’t be able to tell the difference in arm speed between 86 and 90 mph.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Well, ideally you get the speed change solely through the different grip
That’s how a good changeup works— the weak velocity comes from throwing it off your weak fingers, not from slowing down your arm speed (which can tip the pitch to a hitter with a great eye, and most MLB hitters have great eyes).
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I was actually a little surprised by that answer
I didn’t expect a tutorial, but also didn’t expect, “I just don’t throw the ball as hard.”
My sense of how a circle change works
is that holding it in the palm of the hand and letting it slide off the ring finger and pinkie (rather than the index and middle fingers) moves the ball closer to the shoulder at the point of release, which effectively shortens the distance from the fulcrum to the end of the lever — thus, less velocity. This is especially effective for pitchers with really long fingers, like Pedro Martinez.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Great interview!
I love this stuff. Cahill gave some rather interesting answers. Can’t wait until tomorrow for the second part.
"Juuuuust a bit outside" - Harry Doyle
more interesting than expected
I like that you asked him about mechanics and working on new pitches. Seems like a perfectly intelligent kid – comes off much better in this interview than the typical post-game interview (probably cause your questions are better). Look forward to part II. cheers
He wants the press to underestimate him -- to lull them into a false sense of security!
Great job, Nico.
It's the fans that make the game fun. -- Rickey Henderson, July 26, 2009.
by Englishmajor on Mar 23, 2011 5:29 PM PDT reply actions 3 recs
cool, good interview, so far...
I don’t think pitchers need to look at advanced stats like SIERRA and FIP, but they should be aware of contact rates.
I am only pretty on the outside
dannycakes can also be called "hipsterbot," or "Gambit"
Coolest Shit Ever
I really liked the FIP question and his answer that he tries to get weak ground balls. I remember some of our heated arguments about whether it is possible to induce weak ground balls and I still think it is possible. And after reading this I am more confident than ever that Cahill can again outperform his FIP. We may not get to know because he could perfect another pitch or improve on his location and he will have a better FIP with similar success As last year and the naysayers will still say he was lucky last year.
by barryzitoforever on Mar 23, 2011 6:37 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
I don't want to be negative here, because it was a good interview
but I take what ballplayers say in situations like this with a huge grain of salt. There are things that are out of their hands, and self analysis like “pitch to contact” is one of those things I don’t take too seriously.
I am only pretty on the outside
dannycakes can also be called "hipsterbot," or "Gambit"
With the disclaimer that I don't want this to turn into a Cahill-BABIP debate...
I do find it interesting that he specifically mentions that he isn’t looking for the strikeout as often as I would guess that a pitcher with an 0-2 count would. Then again, as Future Ed says, there needs to be a huge grain of salt taken in these situations. After all, Cahill just finished an entire year of baseball inducing weak ground balls like they’re going out of style.
"Juuuuust a bit outside" - Harry Doyle
This, pretty much
Way, way too much selective memory going on. No slight to Cahill; I mean, it’s asking the impossible of someone to keep a running mental catalog of something like that.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I really liked the FIP question also.
It’s interesting to hear that Cahill is attributing his sucess to manipulating his grip and working the zone to induce weak contact.
A serious question:
Isn’t grip one of the most important things in producing movement on a baseball?
I am only pretty on the outside
dannycakes can also be called "hipsterbot," or "Gambit"
He's correct, too --
Changing speeds effectively, and hitting spots, are two excellent ways to induce weaker contact. (As is "late movement," which he is fortunate to naturally generate.)
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
But remember Nico, we have to wait until 2015
To really have definitive evidence if he is “lucky” or “talented”.
That seems hasty.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I've yet to see any tangible evidence (either way) on either of those points
If there’s a study I’m not aware of, I’d love to see it. I’m not aware that they’ve ever been seriously analyzed.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Isn't "hitting spots" a way to pitch to the "hole" in a player's swing
and therefore induce weak contact?
And doesn’t changing speeds disrupt a hitter’s timing so his bat is through the hitting zone too fast or too slow and therefore helps to induce weaker contact?
I think the pitching coaches for all teams keep data that tell at which spot a hitter is most likely to make weak contact and also tell at which spot a hitter is most likely to hit a ground ball to short stop. I am pretty sure the pitching coach goes over these charts with the pitchers on a regular basis.
by gratefuldude on Mar 23, 2011 11:27 PM PDT up reply actions
I suppose
but no one can do that with such precision.
From Nico’s recount of his conversation with Mike Gallego, it doesn’t seem like the A’s or any other team has the kind of proprietary data.
I am only pretty on the outside
dannycakes can also be called "hipsterbot," or "Gambit"
At the Twins Jersey Day in 1977..
I remember we got to sit in the usually closed right field bleachers because it was one of the biggest crowds in the history of Met Stadium. And under those bleachers was the White Sox bullpen. While the relievers were supposed to be warming up, they were instead throwing at a chainlink fence trying to hit a paper cup one of them had stuck into it. They walked off the distance so it was about a pitcher’s mound away. And I watched in awe as they threw 90 MPH balls right at me and hit the cup more often than they missed. If there is a baseball sized hole in a player’s swing, I guarantee a major league pitcher can hit it.
by barryzitoforever on Mar 24, 2011 7:51 PM PDT up reply actions
A hitter can prevent that from happening by the simple expedient of lining up slightly closer to,
or further from, the plate. (Or he can deliberately look to put a swing on a pitch in that area, perhaps by weakening plate coverage elsewhere.)
A hitter’s strike zone is not a static entity like a carnival bull’s eye.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I'm not saying it's an implausible speculation (though I'm dubious, given the near-complete absence of long-term outliers in the BABIP data), just that it is, in fact, speculation
and thus that making straight-out declarative claims about it is not supportable, unless backed by evidence I’m unaware of.
The problem with the “hitting spots” argument is that there are plenty of guys with pretty great control who show no signs of limiting BABIP. As for speed-changing, I just don’t know of any data on it at all.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Agreed
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 24, 2011 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Well, there's the data about knuckleballs
which does seem to indicate that a pitch that flits around randomly does lead to lower BABIP. It’s possible that changing speeds or movement accomplish something similar, but it might be harder to classify a particular pitcher as a slopballer than it is to classify someone as a knuckleballer.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Knuckleballs actually take different paths based on, in part, what happens to them in the air
Much less true of spinning pitches like “BP fastballs.”
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I think he will outperform his FIP again
If Kouz/Penny/Ellis/Barton are his INF for 90% of his innings. Easily.
Well, yeah, every pitcher on the A's should outperform his FIP by a third of a run or so
Less than that and you’re actually unlucky (or else shouldn’t be in the majors).
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Well I was thinking he'd outperform it by a run or more
There’s not a lot going against him doing the same thing he did last year.
Well, there is the whole "it would be utterly historically unique" thing going against him
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I don't know about "historically unique"
But I’m pretty sure it was one of the best if not the best D in baseball last year. I don’t see a really great reason it won’t be great again this year. So if some of the credit for him outperforming by a run or more goes to the D, I’m ok with that. Cahill himself is a high caliber defender also.
by barryzitoforever on Mar 24, 2011 7:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Most things in sports that are great in one season are not great in the next
(They’re often good, but that’s a lot easier of a standard to meet.)
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I think it's worth pointing this out again:
Cahill had more assists (per 9 innings) than any other qualifying starter last year. That means just about one thing: he fielded a whole truckload of comebackers in 2010. If that’s not “desirable contact,” I don’t know what is. And while none of us can know how much of that is luck and how much a repeatable skill – I think anyone with perfunctory logic skills would be remiss to say that Cahill simply doesn’t induce weaker contact than the average pitcher, especially if he keeps getting so many more comebackers than everyone else.
Until Hit F/X hits the open market – there isn’t an existing public stat that judges the strength of balls hit (beyond the flimsy “LD%”). FIP, xFIP, tRA (or tERA) and SIERA remain incomplete in their evaluation of pitchers – especially groundball pitchers.
by sleepingcobra on Mar 24, 2011 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Wait a minute
Are you telling me that’s 4 Gold Gloves we should have had last year (Along with Kouz+Ellis+Barton)????
What, and rob "Lowd Jeeetah" of anotha gohld gluv?"
:q
"You're early, but hang around; we'll have a fight for you sooner or later."
-John "Blue Moon" Odom
I'm not sure Ellis was that good last year
He’s starting to show signs of aging. (Then again, I’m not certain of exactly who counts as playing the position in the AL at present. Like, does Zobrist count?)
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
He was second out of all MLB 2B in UZR & UZR/150
Behind Utley on both, and edging Orlando Hudson. There’s a sound argument for him winning the gold glove in 2010
If you look at all the defensive stats
I think you’ll find Pennington was robbed at SS too.
by barryzitoforever on Mar 24, 2011 8:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Honestly, I thought he was great a lot of the time,
but the sheer number of “unforced errors” (errors on truly routine throws, for example) precludes him being GG caliber. I imagine Pennington himself would say that.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
So he can't have the gold glove because of the arm that didn't have the glove on it?
by barryzitoforever on Mar 24, 2011 8:13 PM PDT up reply actions
In fairness, had he put a glove on that arm
his throws would likely have been even worse.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Nope
Because even if that’s what it’s called, it’s about the entirety of someone’s defense.
Well, and often some offense too.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
No metric is ever going to be "complete"
Asking for a “complete” metric is like asking someone to disprove the existence of God.
The metrics we have are sufficiently close to complete (and we know this because of how good they are at predicting performance) to know that Cahill is in serious trouble if he does not improve his strikeout, walk and/or home run rates.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I have to disagree with you here.
What we’re really talking about is the size of a baseball vs. the size of a baseball bat – and the league’s aggregate ability to make those two things connect with one another. This is why it’s so important to have Hit F/X (and Field F/X) data to draw any kind of decisive conclusion about pitchers who “outperform” their FIPs (or pitchers who don’t, for that matter).
If I were to propose that some strike out pitchers happen to make batters miss the ball by a 1/8" more than other strike out pitchers – no one would really bat an eye; it would merely be obvious. Why, then, is an eye batted if the same principle is applied to contact itself. Why couldn’t Cahill “induce” weaker contact (or have the ability to make batters almost miss by 1/8" more than other pitchers) if it’s a given that strike out pitchers can do the same?
It’s for this reason I’ve always had reservations about DIPS. Not reservations in regard to the need to remove defense and luck from raw pitching statistics – I love that – but in regard to the lack of batted ball velocities and trajectories. “The metrics we have are sufficiently close to complete” – didn’t Einstein say this about God and dice?
Surely there is quite a bit more to be gleaned from this subject other than the Three True Outcomes and LD%. With Hit F/X (and Field F/X), it will instead be changed to Infinity Outcomes and pitchers will have a convenient and highly-informative probability wave on the backs of their baseball cards.
And DIPS will go the way of the land line.
by sleepingcobra on Mar 24, 2011 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think you are 100% right on here.
In theory, DIPS was an improvement in that it gave more accurate predictive data. In practice, it is turning out to be the “little knowledge” that is a “dangerous thing.”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Einstein definitely didn't say that God's dice are sufficiently close to complete...
(Also, the quote you’re alluding to was pretty clearly wrong… so relying on it is not exactly wise, IMO.)
Pitch F/x is cool and all but it’s actually done little for evaluating pitchers’ skill level (with the exception of finally getting reliable, non-inflated velocity data). It’s basically a curiosity. I really doubt that Field F/x is the holy grail of statistics.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Hit F/X will greatly fine tune our understanding of pitching. Period.
The Einstein bit was a vague allusion attempting to juxtapose his inability to accept the Copenhagen Interpretation of quantum mechanics and yours for accepting that Hit F/X is basically going to make present day DIPS obsolete. I know – that’s a pretty big jumble. Let’s just forget that part.
The point remains: what good is looking at only three outcomes when you can know the exact velocity and trajectory of every single batted ball? It’s going to make a far superior evaluative and predictive statistic – and it’s going to explain what is and isn’t luck across the league.
by sleepingcobra on Mar 24, 2011 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions
More information often does not help
We already know the exact velocity and trajectory of every single pitch, yet we have little understanding of exactly WHY Justin Duchscherer is better than Daniel Cabrera. Which he clearly is.
Often, more data simply confuses an issue. The key is having the right data.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
And FIP is NOT that.
It’s better than ERA, but it’s not the right data. Just because something is better than something else doesn’t make it good, or sufficient.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Okay
We know that FIP is not perfect; it has already been improved upon. It is possible that it will be further improved upon when we get more data (though I find that prospect to be less certain than sleepingcobra evidently does).
But… claiming that “not perfect” equals “dangerous” is just ludicrous. I will make use of it, and I will (in the long run) outpredict you at evaluating the future skill of pitchers if you don’t.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I don't understand why you think knowing the velocity and trajectory of every batted ball wouldn't significantly magnify our understanding of pitching.
And we (the public) do not have access to Hit F/X data.
by sleepingcobra on Mar 24, 2011 6:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Knowing the velocity and trajectory of every particle in the universe wouldn't significantly magnify my understanding of pitching
In theory, I suppose I could know the entire past and future history of the universe (not just the outcome of some baseball games…), but in practice, I’d never have anything close to the ability to process the data.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
More data just means that it's going to take longer to analyze it
To figure out what a meaningful use of said data is. This isn’t some Heisenberg-ian problem, here.
The methods we have now in terms of FIP, SIERA, and the like are pretty formulaic; the new Hit f/x data are going to require much more powerful analytical tools. It may indeed be that there is so much noise that it’s not going to be appreciably better to have it than DIPS stats, but we can’t conclude that yet.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Mar 25, 2011 7:24 AM PDT up reply actions
When Einstein talked about God's dice, was he really referring to his balls?
by barryzitoforever on Mar 24, 2011 8:15 PM PDT up reply actions
My batted balls are not in play.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'd recommend you check out the 2011 THT Annual.
Great section on FieldFX on it, including an essay running through the possibilities for creating a better UZR out of it. No more zones.
I bet he was trying the throw a knuckleball
If Pennington manages 17 HRs, I’ll vow to consume an article of clothing to achieve a humorous effect --Joey C.
matsuzaka teaching him the gyroball? braden teaching him the screwball?
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
Beltre the busted ball?
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Could also be a splitter or something weird like a palmball
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
could be side armed or submarine too
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Mar 23, 2011 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Backhand Eephus?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UdYBEJzy-F0&feature=related
Work as if everything depends on you and Pray knowing that everything depends on God. - Michael Taylor
by supermarc589 on Mar 23, 2011 8:39 PM PDT up reply actions
that was freakin awesome!
"Just remember it could be worse.... You could have to eat all your meals at Sizzler."- Mr. Bed
by Gaijin_Suketto on Mar 24, 2011 7:05 AM PDT up reply actions
kaz tadno
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones."
-BB 07/27/05
Nico...
….you are so fantastically talented at interviewing. This is so good…nice work!
"Oh who am I kidding? The A's and Giants could stage a pillow fight, and I'd still care who wins." -67Marquez
by baseballgirl on Mar 23, 2011 7:20 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Aww, thanks. (And thanks, everyone, who has had kind words.)
The key to a good interview, IMO, is listening. The best questions cannot be prepared; they come from paying attention to what doors are being opened, and what stories emerged to be told.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Mar 23, 2011 7:48 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Good interview
but I think that the type of questions asked about FIP and such are misplaced. If in 1998 someone interviewed a player with a flukey high BABIP who never walked about the value of OBP he would probably say that walks are for people that aren’t that good. Well they aren’t and the value of OBP shouldn’t be measured by what a player thinks. It should be measured based on the statistical evidence that ties OBP to runs. Huge amounts of statistical data shows FIP to be an excellent judge of pitching success regardless of whether or not Trevor Cahill believes in it or not.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Mar 23, 2011 7:29 PM PDT reply actions
It can still be an interesting question to pose to Cahill
even if I don’t take his response as the gospel on the subject of pitching statistics. I thought the question did lead in well to his elaboration on how he tries to get batters out. I guess changing speeds and pitching down in the zone aren’t exactly big secrets, but I liked the contrast that he drew between himself, Anderson, and Gio.
Not sure what you mean -- the question is whether or not he pays attention to it,
(as part of how he figures out what he should do differently, or better, going forward), not whether he thinks it’s useful or accurate.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Well, I think FIP etc
is as useful for a pitcher to look at as ERA. Its meaningless to the practitioner.
I am only pretty on the outside
dannycakes can also be called "hipsterbot," or "Gambit"
Unless you look and say,
“If I don’t start striking more guys out I can’t sustain this, so I need to focus on a better putaway pitch.” I think it can be useful, potentially — though I tend to agree with Cahill that he’s not a strikeout period by nature and is better off focusing on inducing weak ground balls.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Yeah, but strikeout rate is a much better measure of how many people you strike out
I am only pretty on the outside
dannycakes can also be called "hipsterbot," or "Gambit"
No, you could just face one person and strike him out.
Your strikeout rate would be excellent yet you only struck out one guy, ever. That’s why I much prefer to look at UZR.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Fair enough, but
I assume Cahill knows that walks are bad, K’s are good, and giving HRs are bad. It’s just that he doesn’t care what mathematical relationship they have.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Mar 23, 2011 8:36 PM PDT up reply actions
I think DFA's point is that just because Cahill doesn't care doesn't mean we shouldn't, or rather, that it doesn't matter.
I find his comments interesting, like colin said, in the sense that it lead to his explanation about changing speeds and location — even though part of that could just be post facto reasoning to explain away luck. Ultimately, I place as much stock in his comments about disregarding/being ignorant of FIP as I do in, say, Jeff Francoeur’s comments about OBP.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Mar 23, 2011 8:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Sure, and neither do I
But neither is NOT knowing/caring an indictment of Cahill as a pitcher.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Mar 23, 2011 9:13 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't think anyone is saying that it is.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Mar 23, 2011 9:14 PM PDT up reply actions
I read it as more fatalistic than dismissive (like, he gets the stat, but what's to be done about it?)
If anything, it’s more of a negative insofar as he doesn’t foresee his peripherals improving much.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Didn't Cahill say that he was aware of FIP
but didn’t really pay too much attention to the stat? Sorry if that’s not what he actually said, it’s late and I’m tired (work) but I thought that’s what he was implying in his answer to Nico’s question regarding FIP.
Nico, this is a great interview so far…very proud of you and representing “The Nation!” Cheers & Go A’s!
"You're early, but hang around; we'll have a fight for you sooner or later."
-John "Blue Moon" Odom
Nico turns 3 mins into 20
Sounds almost biblical, like the loaves and the fishes. Excellent interview, but the one thing I was looking forward to was if the defense plays differently behind him because of his excellent range and fielding ability. It was discussed in one of the many Cahill debates a few weeks ago. Is this covered in part deux?
It's covered
here, with Mike Gallego, actually. Part Deux is largely non-baseball related stuff.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Oh, wow. How did I miss that?
I have been wondering the answer to that question since it was discussed and somehow missed the post. Thanks for the link and TWO well done interviews.
Thanks, Nico!
I always look forward to your interviews. I know they aren’t easy, and you were well prepared, Good job, love.
Thanks. And I always look forward to your rack.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Mar 23, 2011 8:03 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
O'lamb...!
"You're early, but hang around; we'll have a fight for you sooner or later."
-John "Blue Moon" Odom
Lamb, really?
Tastes like chicken.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Great interview Nico, looking forward to the rest
if Dallas can have his own personal catcher, then maybe Trevor can have his own personal interviewer.
Ooh -- I could travel with him and help translate from English to English!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I've always wondered about the difference in midset between
intentional ground ball pitchers like Cahill and strike out pitchers like say Harden typically is. Obviously the question about FIP (skill verse luck) can’t be answered yet, but I suspect that given Cahill’s arsenal of pitches he has more skill than typical . Great interview.
He sure says "like" a lot.
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
he is from Southern California...
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Mar 23, 2011 9:18 PM PDT up reply actions
and is only a few years removed from his teen years
I am only pretty on the outside
dannycakes can also be called "hipsterbot," or "Gambit"
I'm only a few decades removed from my teen years. I guess that's why I say it.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 24, 2011 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions
Nice, Nico!
Looking forward to the second part.
These clothes are good enough to drink in, and so be these boots, too.
Really interesting
From your interview, you get a nice perspective of how a pitcher strategizes. I remember thinking (when I was younger) that pitchers just try to throw it as hard as they can. This reinforces that – on every pitch – they’re thinking, plotting, planning. Nice work. Thank you!
Hey dad, I got this guy's autograph, Rollie
Fingers. Who's he?
Really?
I got definitely the opposite vibe— like, “I do what I do, and either it works or it doesn’t.” You can fiddle with what you do (like experimenting with new pitches) but who knows whether it’ll work? And the most important things (staying low in the zone, command of fastball, etc.) are also kind of the most banal ones.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I had a slightly different take
Cahill may be a relaxed guy, but that’s obviously how he tries to come across. He knows what he’s not, but also seems baseball-curious, i.e. his adoption of new pitches, experimentations. That suggests a willingness to adjust and adapt.
Excellent work Nico
Cahill, mostly due to his age (he comes off very young in this interview) definitely had that knock as a tough int because he was a little shy and young, but you got him to open up. Kudos.
Excellent work Nico
Can’t wait to read part 2
by Tyler Bleszinski on Mar 23, 2011 11:56 PM PDT reply actions
considerably more studied and relevant questions than my Korach conference
where the big revelation is how many Grateful Dead shows KK has been to.
Can’t wait for part two, you’re really good at this sh*t, N…no wonder he talked to you for double the time he usually does with press.
Empires may crumble, FIP statistics may lose their meaning, but only a Keetsa mattress puts years back on your life while you're sleeping.
Seconded!
Also, how many Dead shows did KK attend in his lifetime so far, EN?
"You're early, but hang around; we'll have a fight for you sooner or later."
-John "Blue Moon" Odom
12
I think he said his first was in like 1974 but I don’t remember.
Empires may crumble, FIP statistics may lose their meaning, but only a Keetsa mattress puts years back on your life while you're sleeping.
by emperor nobody on Mar 24, 2011 1:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Neither do I!
Actually, my first show was Dylan & The Dead in July of 87’. Friggin epic first show, mate!
"You're early, but hang around; we'll have a fight for you sooner or later."
-John "Blue Moon" Odom
Great stuff.
Despite what you might think about the content, to have exclusive interviews with players, coaches, management, ownership, and other media personnel on this site is pretty cool. I don’t know if it’s common with other sports blogs or not (this is the only one I’ve ever read), but I kind of doubt it.
Really enjoyed it
Nice work – as per usual.
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
Further Proof
…of how excellent AN is. Work of this quality is hard to find.
Nice work Nico.
Let's play two.
Geez, Nico, sell me and Jane out, why don't you?
Sheesh!
That’s OK, Trevor knows he can be a challenging interview when he’s in quiet mode. But I’m going to watch what I tell Nico from now on, that’s for sure.
And for the record: Trevor is MUCH better than when he first came up. He was so shy and interviewing him was just painful, for us and for him. Now he’s more comfortable, and when he gets going, he can even be pretty funny. He’s not Dallas, but he’s not bad.
Thanks for weighing in, Susan.
You’ll always be our champion, so no worries. Cheers!
"You're early, but hang around; we'll have a fight for you sooner or later."
-John "Blue Moon" Odom
We still lof you
WAY more than Nico.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Yo Mikey!
Can’t wait for this rain to let up so we can fire up the grill on opening day bro!
"You're early, but hang around; we'll have a fight for you sooner or later."
-John "Blue Moon" Odom
I'm counting down!
What’s up with group tickets?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Hey, you two are way prettier than I am
You have to give me something.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
On a serious note, obviously the reason he gives shorter answers for the beat writers
is that you have to ask questions like, “How’d your curve ball feel today?” — that’s why I like doing features once/year instead of post-mortems once/day.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I don't know....you're kind pretty yourself
but in general, you probably better not repeating conversations you have about players with the beat writers. There are some players who might really take offense to the reporters suggesting they’re a crappy interview, even if we were kidding. (We were kidding, Trevor!) And you don’t want to get a beat writer frozen out for basically an off-the-record comment.
It does make me wonder what else I told you. Just assume that unless you ask specifically to make use of our talks, it’s not for public consumption. I’d never blog that anyone is a bad interview, but you basically just did it for me, which could have been problematic.
by slusser on Mar 24, 2011 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
This may be an appropriate time for one of Nico's famous after-the-fact ninja edits.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
I took the remarks as Trevor being shy.
This shouldn’t pose a problem.
Non-stat guy: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Non-stat guy: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
I like the humor with which you're handling this
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 24, 2011 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions
I actually hadn't thought about it reflecting on the player,
so point well taken. Not that I think it reflects badly on him, but I hadn’t thought about it one way or the other. I just found it odd that before I interviewed someone, everyone I ran into seemed to forecast certain doom.
Had it been one person, I would have been like “whatever,” but I literally only saw three people and they all seemed to go out of their way to comment. So it became part of my “experience.”
But if next year, when you see me you give me the silent treatment or run the other way I’ll understand. To be honest, it’s what women usually do.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Dude, stop digging
I literally only saw three people and they all seemed to go out of their way to comment
Digging?
I have no idea what you mean here. That’s exactly what happened. I didn’t even tell anyone I was interviewing Cahill, and then the only people I saw all brought it up to me by way of specific comments about what I should expect. That’s just a narrative of what happened. It was very odd to me.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Digging the hole you're already in
I don’t doubt that’s what happened, spelling it out here is only further betraying the writers’ trust. Not only did these writers say that Cahill was terrible interviewee, they felt so strongly about it that they went out of their way to volunteer this criticism!
Can you quote me the part where the writers said he was a terrible interviewee?
by LoneStranger on Mar 24, 2011 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions
No, it's a little more to do with you reading into it
They didn’t say Cahill’s a terrible interviewee, just that he’s usually a very short answer kind of guy so you need a lot of questions if you’re looking to fill a certain length of time up. That could mean he’s a difficult interview if you’re hoping for longer responses, but they’re not specifically calling him a terrible interviewee.
Small but important distinction.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Not only did I not say the writers said he was a terrible interviewee,
it’s not even what I thought they meant. I thought they were saying he gave very short answers / was shy, and that it was a “fait a compli” that my interview would be short. Which is neither a criticism of Cahill, them, me, or anyone. You’re creating something that doesn’t exist.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I didn't create anything; I'm not the one who brought it up
Perhaps I’m mistaken, but this reads pretty clearly to me as you relaying a criticism of Cahill’s interviewee skills:
That bad, so bad that everyone felt compelled to warn me of the awkward doom that lay ahead?
I meant "awkward doom" in the nice way.
Seriously, though, again that refers to “He’s shy; it will be a short interview.” Which says absolutely nothing against Cahill, them, you, me, or anyone.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Basically, chatting is chatting and an interview is an interview
There are lots of things I might say to you chatting I’d never want to appear on the site, so you need to make sure if you use it that it’s OK.
If we’d both told you someone was a real jackass, would you write that? I assume you would not, so I think you do understand that there is a trust factor involved when you are putting someone’s words out in a public forum.
I am not allowed to use off-the-record comments. I would consider all non-interviews to be off the record unless I checked first.
It won’t happen, because Trevor is a good guy, but believe me, I have covered plenty of players who would have been ticked at us for suggesting, however jokingly, that they are poor interviews. And that would not be good for us – this is our jobs you’re talking about, and people we have to talk to every day. You need to take care when you’re dealing with things like that. You cannot come in for one day and risk getting the regulars in deep water with people they have to cover.
I didn’t think I’d have to spell that out, but it’s apparent that I do. I love you, Nico, but you whiffed on that one and I will have to be more circumspect with what I tell you in the future, I’m sorry to say.
Nothing personal, and I know you don’t know all the etiquette, but this is simple common sense. Of course all those things weren’t meant for publication.
And as a tip
Here’s how you’d do it safely: Three people warned me that he was quiet, or one person said X and another said Y.
You easily could have done this without mentioning names and possibly dropping reporters into a big problem.
With that further explanation, I also see more clearly what you mean
And it’s completely relevant and valid, absolutely.
With what I was saying above, I wasn’t trying to sound like I was speaking for anyone, just rather explaining how it read to me without getting into the right or wrong of what was written.
It’s an important distinction for people to be aware of, however, in terms of traditional media vs. non-traditional. There are definitely things that have to be handled carefully.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Gotcha. That makes a lot of sense.
I work in a highly “confidential oriented” job of my own — counseling (as well as teaching in the same school) — but in my particular job the rule happens to be opposite, which is that people say “off the record” or “confidentially” when they want to tell me something not to be shared, rather than telling me when something can be shared. My apologies.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
totally accepted
you remain high on my list, even if Bloomie is funnier.
Thank you, and he is.
FWIW, my preference would be that instead of feeling the need to be circumspect in the future, that you simply accept this contract:
“I, Nico, being of unsound mind and increasingly aching body, hereby agree not to repeat, by oral or written word, or even by fax, semaphore, innuendo, or psychic message, any future comments Susan Slusser, Jane Lee, or any similar persons in a similar capacity, may make to me in conversation, as said comments will be presumed to be confidential.”
And AN has a “search” function, so you know it’s true.
I don’t go down to spring training to upset people; I actually go down to say “hi” to the people I like, and to stay out of the way the rest of the time.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Me happy and relieved
Thank you, Sluss.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
See, it's the same way for me
Otherwise I’m content to be the photo guy.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Yeah, but nobody's Dallas
I’m just kind of glad the interviews I’ve done with Ziegler (about 30 minutes) and Cramer (about 45) came out so well, but those were definitely not your run-of-the-mill kinds of things. Instead, they were much more in-depth. But, they both speak very well – as I’m sure you know – and I wanted to sort of summarize and go a little deeper into Cramer’s journey for people here.
It’s fun. I don’t think I’d enjoy the day-to-day interviews as much, though. There are probably only so many ways you can ask someone about each game, but that daily side is to be expected.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I was wondering if maybe Cahill feels a little less talkative around women
I’d guess women throw themselves at him all the time, but probably not always while holding microphones. I could imagine he might feel slightly more talkative with a guy.
by barryzitoforever on Mar 25, 2011 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions
I was wearing a dress and high heels, so that's probably not it.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Good interview
I think Cahill saying he doesn’t care about FIP because it wouldn’t affect the way he pitches is a perfect attitude for a pitcher to have. If FIP tells Cahill that he should strike more guys out and allow fewer balls in play, that’s about as useful as telling Cust that he should strike out less and put more balls in play.
Anyway, here are some of my thoughts on Cahill and BABIP…
Here are some BABIP figures from 2010:
Non-OAK AL pitchers: 5904 hits on 25292 ground balls, for a .233 BABIP.
Non-Cahill Oakland pitchers: 358 hits on 1659 ground balls, for a .216 BABIP
Trevor Chaill: 51 hits on 333 ground balls, for .153 BABIP
Overall, Oakland pitchers allowed 55 fewer hits on ground balls than they would given a non-OAK AL average BABIP (.233). That seems just about right in line with the +48 UZR that the A’s got from their infield.
Trevor Cahill, all by himself, allowed 27 fewer hits on ground balls than he would have with a league average BABIP on GBs. So nearly half of Oakland’s hits saved on ground balls came with Cahill on the mound, despite Cahill accounting for only 17% of the ground balls induced by AL pitchers. If Cahill had the same BABIP on GBs as the rest of the A’s staff, he would have allowed 21 more hits than he actually did (72, up from 51).
The A’s had an excellent infield defense, but it wasn’t nearly excellent enough to explain Cahill’s microscopic BABIP on grounders.
There are three possible explanations:
1) The A’s infield defense was pretty good when other A’s pitchers were on the mound, but was insanely good when Cahill was pitching. We know that pitchers on the same team receive differing levels of offensive support, so it’s likely that pitchers on the same team also receive differing levels of defensive support.
2) The average ground ball induced by Cahill was easier to field than a typical ground ball. Whether by virtue of weaker contact or balls simply being hit straight at fielders, some grounders are easier to field than others.
3) Cahill is a very good fielder, and he helped turn some grounders into outs that other pitchers would have let go for hits.
I would guess that each of these explanations has some truth to it. The A’s defense likely played better with Cahill on the mound, Cahill likely induced easily fieldable grounders, and Cahill is likely a good fielder.
Going forward, we can continue to project the A’s infield defense to be very good. We can also project Cahill to continue to be a good fielder. But even with these projections, we’d still expect Cahill’s BABIP to increase significantly.
The tougher question is whether Cahill has an ability to induce easily fielded grounder, or whether he was simply lucky to do so in 2010. Again, it’s likely that there’s some truth to both the luck and skill arguments—though it was likely mostly luck. We know that pitchers can have some effect on BABIP, but it takes a large sample of performance to be able to determine which pitchers differ significantly from MLB average on BIP. For any deviation from average in a small sample, we have to heavily regress back towards average—our best guess is that most of the deviation was due to luck, rather than skill.
One interesting thing to note, in light of the interview Cahill did with AN, is that there’s a pretty big split for BABIP by ball-strike count. Last year, batters had a .286 BABIP when behind in the count, .291 when the count was even, and .304 when they were ahead. Part of this is selective sampling (good pitchers and bad hitters make up a disproportionate amount of the instances of batters being behind in the count), but part of it is the batter being forced to swing at pitches he wouldn’t normally swing at.
Cahill allowed a .255 when batters were ahead in the count, compared to a .188 BABIP when he was ahead in the count. Both numbers are well below league average, but Cahill’s BABIP when ahead in the count is far lower than one would expect. Perhaps, in lieu of having a strikeout pitch, Cahill is exceptionally good at setting hitters up to make weak contact on low sinkers?
The problem with this theory is that a high strikeout rate is positively correlated with lower BABIPs. Pitchers who get more Ks also tend to have lower BABIPs, and this goes beyond the fact that pitchers with high-K rates also tend to be flyball pitchers (and FBs have a lower BABIP than GBs). So the above theory about Cahill would have to be specifically attributed to him, rather than to the type of pitcher he is.
Cahill’s 2011 BABIP should be expected to be very similar to the overall BABIP allowed by Oakland pitchers, and Oakland should be expected to have one of the lowest BABIPs in the league. He should benefit from being a good fielder, by pitching to the strength of the defense (lotsa grounders), and by likely having a small ability to induce easier fielded grounders. He should be hurt by being a low-K pitcher who induces a lot GBs, as those types tend to have higher BABIPs.
To summarize, and put an end to the longwindedness, Cahill’s 2011 ERA won’t be as good as his 2010 ERA, but it should still be better than his 2010 FIP. That’s a good pitcher, and one who still has room for growth given his prospect pedigree.
PS: I agree with Slusser that it was inappropriate to sell them out like that.
by Danny on Mar 24, 2011 11:01 AM PDT reply actions 6 recs
Love this comment (until the P.S.)
“Selling them out” by saying, playfully, “Ye of little faith”? Come on.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Ya I wouldn't have done that either......but nice interview anyway.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 24, 2011 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions
Rec'd
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 24, 2011 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions
The problem I see with a "get ahead in the count so that you will limit BABIP" strategy
is that getting ahead in the count usually requires throwing a higher-than-normal proportion of early strikes, and hitters tend to do better against early strikes when they swing at them. Hitter BABIP on first-pitch contact was .302 last year, compared to .297 overall. Throwing more first pitch strikes is also going to mean throwing more first pitches that are within the section of the zone that the hitter is ready to jump on on the first pitch.
I know some guys (Bannister, eg) have talked about “getting ahead to limit BABIP” as a strategy, but I’ve yet to see anything to make me think it’s a winning one.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I just see getting ahead in the count as more beneficial in all cases
But yeah, that might mean offering a couple better pitches than you’d be prone to do otherwise, especially if you’re thinking “If I get ahead here then I can…” when you’re out there.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I think the best way to limit BABIP is to miss the sweet spot on bats,
“horizontally” (off the end of the bat and on the hands) and/or “vertically” (balls topped or undercut). HOW to accomplish this is complex, but “late movement,” changing speeds, hitting spots on both sides of the plate, and pitching in favorable counts are pretty good places to start.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Okay
Late movement is a physical chimera. Like, it literally doesn’t exist. It’s like a “rising fastball”— a visual illusion.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
It's in quotes to acknowledge that.
Hitters absolutely do perceive late movement, which matters. What the ball is actually doing is kind of irrelevant.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Okay, but if you're trying to postulate a physical explanation for low BABIP,
relying on something which is entirely a visual illusion in the mind of a hitter carries no water.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Entirely false.
What drives hitting results is what the hitter experiences. If you prefer to call it “harder for the hitter to track” then call it that. Whatever you want to call it, some pitches appear to the hitter to move late more than others and it affects the batter a lot.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
See, I don't see any evidence for this at all
All I see is evidence that hitters who are good hitters have better BABIP, against everyone. It would be almost impossible to get a legitimate measure of how easy or hard a time a hitter has against a particular opposing pitcher because they just don’t face each other often enough.
If there really are these pitchers with “hard to track” pitches, who are they and why are they not pitching in major league baseball?
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
This doesn't look right to me
Last year, batters had a .286 BABIP when behind in the count, .291 when the count was even, and .304 when they were ahead
Isn’t 280-320 considered the “mean” or “natural” babip?
Well, first off, the quoted statistic is for hitters, so, no; hitters range from .250-.350 routinely
Second, a .005 or .010 difference in league-wide BABIP in a certain situation is actually very significant, though it would not be for a player (where it’s small enough to be swamped by random variation).
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Very good interview!
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 24, 2011 11:46 AM PDT reply actions
Excellent interview
Getting someone monosyllabic to open up and be honest and not say the same taped responses…that’s a gift. Congratulations, Nico.
The answer to that first question about FIP wasn’t about how Cahill ignores FIP. What he said was, “Naw. I don’t know anybody that does, because it doesn’t really affect how you’re gonna pitch.”
To repeat: “I don’t know anybody that does that.” You pitch to your skills, and more importantly, you pitch to get people out. Trying to improve those kind of statistics would, I think, hurt any pitcher because it would take him off his game. That’s something for analysts or fans, not for the athletes themselves.
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