Winter Meetings Open Thread: Day 3
by baseballgirl on Dec 7, 2011 9:11 AM PST
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PrintFirst of all, in the "insult to injury" category, allow me to share the winner of the Ford Frick Award:
Tim McCarver, who has been a national analyst on television networks for three decades and simultaneously shined as part of broadcast teams with four big league clubs, was named on Wednesday the 2012 recipient of the Ford C. Frick Award, presented annually for excellence in baseball broadcasting by the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum.
I literally can't comment.
Back to the Winter Meetings. This made my heart stop last night:
Ken_Rosenthal
Sources: #Angels pursuing Pujols. Ongoing conversations. #MLB
Some former-A's news:
JaneMLB
RT @harding_at_mlb Rockies agree to send RHP Huston Street to Padres for Minor Leaguer.
Some current A's rumors:
susanslusser
#Phillies interest in Gio Gonzalez is confirmed. There also is some buzz about #Athletics reliever Craig Breslow.
What else is out there?
Discuss.
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Well, then, Frick McCarver.
JJ Martin
The best way to catch a knuckleball is to wait until the ball stops rolling and then pick it up. ~Bob Uecker
by JJ Martin on Dec 7, 2011 9:14 AM PST reply actions 10 recs
Wat.
Ken Rosenthal
Source: #Yankees win rights to Nakajima. Now must negotiate contract. #MLB
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
makes sense
Didn’t see it coming, though
"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer
by cuppingmaster on Dec 7, 2011 9:20 AM PST up reply actions
Sucks for him that he has no chance of starting though
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 11:22 AM PST up reply actions
When Jeter crumbles to dust, then Nakajima can start
"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer
by cuppingmaster on Dec 7, 2011 11:48 AM PST up reply actions
What about Nunez?
Nakajima had better hope Rodriguez and Jeter both crumble…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 11:49 AM PST up reply actions
Oops, forgot about him
In that case, I don’t know why they bid
"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer
by cuppingmaster on Dec 7, 2011 12:18 PM PST up reply actions
Maybe they're going to trade Nunez?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 12:22 PM PST up reply actions
Can't wait to see who they'll expect in return
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 12:24 PM PST up reply actions
Jair Jurrjens?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 12:27 PM PST up reply actions
lowballing them
Only Hayward + Jurrgens will complete this trade
"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer
by cuppingmaster on Dec 7, 2011 12:29 PM PST up reply actions
Heyward wouldn't make the Yankee OF would he?
He might still have options though
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 12:30 PM PST up reply actions
Phillies Interest...
Is it too much to ask for domonic brown + may/biddle+ random C prospect for Gonzalez and Breslow?
brown gets you about 60% of the way there
if we’re discussing Gio.
by BWH on Dec 7, 2011 9:22 AM PST up reply actions
Sorry meant to put comment below here:
so one of biddlle or may get the other 40%? … they are both B+ prospects
I think Billy would love Biddle, I'm not so sure about May
Biddle’s a 6’4" 1st round SP who put up a sub-3 ERA at A-ball as a 19 year old. Brown, Biddle and Worley for Gio. Still seems a bit light.
by BWH on Dec 7, 2011 9:27 AM PST up reply actions
IDK about light there...
That would be a great package as I would be thrilled but I would still be really happy if Worley replace by some C prospect
It's good, but not "back up the truck good"
Given how many teams are into Gio, I want this to be to us what the Teixeira trade was for Texas. 5-6 MLB quality guys.
by BWH on Dec 7, 2011 9:33 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah Billy just need to sit back and wait...
and kill it with this deal
You gotta think Billy's juices are flowing again
He’s had a couple of pretty frustrating years as a GM, hopefully he can dust off his skills and be revitalized by these discussions.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 7, 2011 10:47 AM PST up reply actions
To me not too much to ask at all
Brown’s season last year didn’t impress me. He’s not the super prospect he was last year.
by OnlybuyBeaneJerseys on Dec 7, 2011 10:19 AM PST up reply actions
so one of biddlle or may
get the other 40%? … they are both B+ prospects
In all seriousness, keep mentioning new teams, everyone
More suitors = Higer price.
by BWH on Dec 7, 2011 9:29 AM PST up reply actions
hahaha
that would be the steal of the century.
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 10:10 AM PST up reply actions
Now the DBacks are in it.
Arizona #Dbacks pushing hard with #Athletics trying to get Gio Gonzale
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
WTF?
They got ridiculous pitching depth in upper minors… what are they thinking? Maybe don’t trust their own prospects?
They're ready to win now
plus a bird in the hand equals two in the bush
by BWH on Dec 7, 2011 9:32 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah, I thought about bringing them up yesterday.
Currently, they only have four set starters (they’re also after Kuroda). They won the division last year, so they’re probably not willing to let all of their prospect SP depth go through its growing pains in the majors.
AZ would have to lead with Skaggs or Parker
and would have to feel lucky if they weren’t asked for both. They’re really weak on position prospects, though.
The monster at the end of this blog.
So,
Tigers, Reds, Yankees, Red Sox, Dbacks, Phillies, Marlins, Nats…
Am I missing anyone? Who doesn’t want Gio?
A’s love Cowgill, would think he would be discussed with Arizona.
by BWH on Dec 7, 2011 9:31 AM PST up reply actions
For Ziegler.
I’d expect him to be the third or fourth piece in a Gio deal.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Oh man
I don’t quite know the level of joy I’d experience if we got Harper and/or Strasburg.
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 7, 2011 10:45 AM PST up reply actions
I would assume that the idea is combining Gio with those pieces to finally field a competitive nats team
Don’t they have other guys in their system? They’ve sucked since the expos days, there’s gotta be some stash of talent there.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 7, 2011 10:48 AM PST up reply actions
The chances of getting one of those guys is approximately zero
"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer
by cuppingmaster on Dec 7, 2011 10:54 AM PST up reply actions
Some guy from USA Today says
Arizona is pushing hard for Gio.
No, we don’t want Joe Saunders.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Arizona has a lot of great arms in its minor league system.
No real top bats, though.
"You're all like big, fat failure turtles." - Edge
by Rated-R Superstar on Dec 7, 2011 9:33 AM PST up reply actions
I would wet my pants if we got Bauer somehow out of it...
but a Skaggs and Bradley package would be just as great but Bradley would have to be named later
But it still makes it tough
Especially for pitchers who you want to moniter work loads etc. It’s one thing when the guys is a throw in who you can choose between two to three players and another whne he is the main piece of the trade a lot can happen before July.
ogallalabob
I was hoping someone brought it up.
But at the same time I was hoping no one had so I could! Good man!
Brown doesn't entice me
In a Gonzalez deal – given his struggles last year, how do we know he’s not Michael Taylor part 2? Gio is too valuable to trade for anything less than a slam dunk prospect (or at least as slam dunk as prospects can get).
Jacob Turner + Austin Jackson – now we’re talking.
Oh, I Would Love Jackson
That would give us a centerfielder with a good bat, speed, and a sweet glove.
Doesnrt get on base, strikes out a ton
Slightly rich man’s version of rajai IMO
No way to Jackson
Rookie season had a historically high BABIP. Even this year it was high, considering how much he put the ball in the air…
I don’t see Jackson as being anything other than what he is right now, which is a 3 WAR CFer…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 10:13 AM PST up reply actions
which is likely as good
if not better than Brown – and certainly more proven. Jackson + Turner and a couple other prospects? Hell yes, that would be a very decent haul. I don’t care that Jackson isn’t an offensive force, he would give us a cheap above average CFer under team control for the next 4 years. We could move him if and when Green/Mitchell/Choice are ready, or move him. He’s essentially Coco Crisp but cheaper and with more upside and less injury prone.
I don’t think Detroit would move him though, since it seems Leyland is in love with him as evidence by his placing him in the leadoff role even though Jackson doesn’t fit that role by any standard other than his speed.
Brown has a wayyyy higher ceiling than that
Jackson’s value lies in his defense, at this point. Unless he can figure out how to strike out less, which I don’t see happening, he’s not gonna provide any offensive value going forward, IMO.
Either way, Phils are out on GIo and looks like the Tigers are too.
And if we’re trading Gio, who’s under team control for 4 years, than why would we trade for someone else who’s got 4 more years of control left? If the issue is finding a stopgap at CF, then resign Crisp or put Sweeney out there. I’d rather spend that money than receive such a player in a trade…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 11:55 AM PST up reply actions
Philly wasn't "in" 48 hours ago
They have enough to make a trade happen, but right now Beane is reaching for a mega-deal. Maybe he gets it. But if he doesn’t, he’ll be able to go back to Philly with lesser demands.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Why?
There’s no reason for him to deal Gio unless he gets a mega-deal.
He let Zito walk because he didn’t get the deal he wanted. Gio’s under control for 4 more years, he could still be worth a top prospect with only 1 year of control left if he continues to pitch the way he has been, as well as show the durability. Of course there’s always risk holding on to a pitcher, but there’s no reason to sell yourself short in this situation. We hold an incredible hand at this point.
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 12:13 PM PST up reply actions
Agreed
There’s no reason for Beane to lower his demand. There’s nothing that says he has to deal Gio – and even though his trade value is at an all time high after his season last year, it could potentially be even higher come the mid season mark in 2012 – especially if he has another all star caliber 1st half. Phillies are a bad trade partner because, even without Oswalt, their rotation is still LEAGUES above the competition’s. They don’t really need another SP, which is why they’re likely not going to offer the type of package Beane is looking for.
The fact that Phillies already have a great rotation doesn't make them
a bad trade partner. The fact that they were reportedly dangling Dom Brown makes them an excellent trade partner.
Yes it does
because Dominic Brown wouldn’t do it alone for the A’s, if you believe what Slusser and others are writing about the A’s looking for a Haren type return in exchange for Gio. Dominic Brown would be the rough equivalent to Carlos Gonzalez in that deal – but the Phillies aren’t about to throw in Brett Anderson, Chris Carter, and Aaron Cunningham type guys into the mix because they don’t have to. They don’t need Gio. Maybe they’d mix in Eveland and Greg Smith type prospects, but Beane isn’t likely to bite on a deal like that. And, Dominic Brown’s season last year concerns me.
Beane's not looking for teams to match up with Oakland,
he’s looking for whichever team is going to give up the most value. Brown’s a better prospect that Carlos Gonzalez was at the time of the trade, and May and Biddle are better than Anderson was.
When the A’s say they want a Haren-like return, it’s not specifically a B+ outfielder, a B LHP, plus throw-ins, etc. It’s in terms of value.
Biddle better than Anderson?
Biddle’s velocity drop and across-the-body mechanics makes me question that.
I realize Sickels’ gave him a B+ but I’m inclined to disagree.
The monster at the end of this blog.
No.
Anderson was easily better than what May and Biddle are, especially Biddle. Both kinda struggled at Single-A. May has a pretty K rate, but has an ugly BB rate and needed 3 seasons for A and A+ ball.
I do agree that Brown is better than Cargo was, giving a Brown/May package a similar value to Cargo/Anderson, leaning in Brown/May favor.
I'm pretty sure Anderson was also a chubby little fellow
when the A’s traded him. IIRC, he wasn’t in the best of shape. Anderson was a B prospect when the A’s acquired him. May and Biddle were both B+, according to Sickels. Even if you consider the velocity drop as grover mentioned, it’s not nearly as lopsided as you think.
You're mistaken
Dominic Brown was a Top 5 prospect in all o’ baseball a year ago. An “A” grade prospect, literally. He’s worth much, much more than Carlos Gonzalez was when the A’s dealt for him. Philly could also offer one of Jon Pettibone, Jesse Biddle, Brody Covin or Julio Rodriguez as the 2nd piece. Add 3B prospect Maikel Franco and I’d say you’re pretty close to matching the talent level that came from the Haren trade.
The monster at the end of this blog.
The reason to deal Gio now rather than later is that he might not really
be as good as he appeared in 2011. Or even if he is, he could get unlucky and seem worse. I don’t see his trade value getting even higher than it is now, but it could certainly go lower.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 12:21 PM PST up reply actions
basically, you're advocating sell high
Seems reasonable.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 7, 2011 12:35 PM PST up reply actions
Even if Gio has an excellent year....like say James Shields had last
year is he really going to be worth more than he is now? I guess it’s possible, but I’d not bet on it. YMMV
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 12:40 PM PST up reply actions
Possibly not, but the market might become more favorable towards the A's.
What a team might not be willing to give up now, can change. I see no hurry to trade Gio unless it is for exactly what BB wants.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
Once Wilson and Buerhle sign, teams will get more desperate
"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer
by cuppingmaster on Dec 7, 2011 12:43 PM PST up reply actions
Yes, it's probably a good idea to wait till then
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 12:44 PM PST up reply actions
I definitely agree to you don't trade him for less than you want
But once you get what you want you trade him. I wouldn’t hold on to him just to see if I could get more later.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 12:45 PM PST up reply actions
I agree with this.
At this point, BB holds the best cards, so he can afford to wait until his demands are met.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
exactly
teams, especially contending ones, are typically more desperate come the trade deadline when they’ve lost a couple of starters to injury or just need that one more pitcher too put them over the edge – If Gonzalez can repeat his first half from this past year, and that’s a BIG if, then those circumstances could mean even higher value
He may not be worth more, but we'll have him for one more year...
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 12:58 PM PST up reply actions
Yes, this would be normally be a very good thing, except
for the inevitable trade rumors, and stupid trade proposals from Yankee and Red Sox fans.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 1:09 PM PST up reply actions
My read is...
Beane is currently asking for more then he knows he can get. If someone happens to say “Yes” to his outlandish proposal… great!
But remember one of the reasons Beane gave as to why he didn’t make more deals last July: GMs were coming to him with take-it-or-leave it proposals. Beane has never negotiated in that style. He tends to focus on one guy and then the rest is hashed out. He’s currently pushing everyone for more than he expects to get so down the road he can come back and approach those same teams with offers that he already finds acceptable.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Dec 7, 2011 12:25 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, I can get behind this
I just hope he’s only asking for legit A prospects from other teams…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 12:26 PM PST up reply actions
If this is true he could end up overplaying his hand.
For example I’d have taken Molina for Bailey.
For Gio though I’d want an A/A-, a B and a high upside C+. I’d stick to Montero and Banuelos from the Yankees though I could live without Mason Williams.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 12:33 PM PST up reply actions
Kenny Williams fucked up. He sold low.
He should have gotten more for Santos.
Don’t think like KW.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Dec 7, 2011 12:42 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I dunno. There's a lotta closers about. Street only netted a PTBNL
I suspect we’ll see what Bailey goes for pretty soon.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 12:43 PM PST up reply actions
Only because the Pads picked up the vast majority of his salary
"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer
by cuppingmaster on Dec 7, 2011 12:44 PM PST up reply actions
Right Bailey's worth more than a PTBNL, but I'm not sure
he’s worth more than Molina
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 12:49 PM PST up reply actions
Molina who?
I must be missing something…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 12:59 PM PST up reply actions
Nestor Molina
who I do not believe is any relation to Bengie, Jose, Yadier, Gustavo or Izzy, but he might be.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 1:03 PM PST up reply actions
Néstor Molina is from Venezuela,
and the three catcher brothers are from Puerto Rico, so I doubt there’s any relation.
I don’t know Gustavo and Izzy.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
gustavo is from venezuela too, but still… trying to find their relation is like don quijote tilting at molinas.
by AV on Dec 7, 2011 4:17 PM PST up reply actions
Hmmm, I'd never heard of him
But he had sick control in the minors last year. Do want.
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 4:59 PM PST up reply actions
McCarver Should Not Have Won
And I do not want Pujols to play for the Halos. For me, the most likely possibility is Miami. As for Street… what minor leaguer? Because Street is a pretty decent closer.
As for the deal with Gio… I think there’s a good possibility that the A’s will make a deal that includes Gio and Brown. Brown could be a mistake, but I’m willing to give him a chance, even if I don’t want to give up Gio. Still, why not include Worley in that package? I’ve kind of warmed up to that idea; we have depth at pitcher (Opening Day Starters: Cahill, McCarthy, Braden, Moscoso, -—), and Anderson won’t return for a while. Outman and Ross are good, but a lot of those guys are injury-prone, and Moscoso may not repeat his 2011 performance. Worley could be a low cost guy, and you can never get enough pitching, especially when that’s your team’s strength. Why not?
Danny Knobler of CBS tweeted this:
A’s asking teams for high-end, low-price return for Gio. Preference is for players with zero or little big-league experience.
3 minutes ago via Twitter for iPad
"You're all like big, fat failure turtles." - Edge
by Rated-R Superstar on Dec 7, 2011 9:35 AM PST reply actions
I'm not really sure.
Good, cheap guys? (Aren’t prospects cheap anyway in terms of cost?)
"You're all like big, fat failure turtles." - Edge
by Rated-R Superstar on Dec 7, 2011 9:37 AM PST up reply actions
rookie or a few years with upside
low cost == league minimum, several years.
Yeah, I'm with you there
Not necessarily a guy with lots of service time, but at least 1 bat who can come in and start immediately.
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 10:14 AM PST up reply actions
That doesn't make sense.
If we want a good player who can play right now, we may as well keep Gio. He’s a great player who can play right now.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
In the interview I saw, Beane is looking at putting together a good, young club at the new ball park.
Players with one or less years in the bigs or those still in the minors are what he is looking for. He is not interested in winning now as much as winning when they go to the new park.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
Shocker.
@Jon_Heyman
Yankees win bidding for nakajima. About $2M
1 minute ago via Mobile Web
"You're all like big, fat failure turtles." - Edge
by Rated-R Superstar on Dec 7, 2011 9:35 AM PST reply actions
Lets see Myer, Turner, Alonso, Montero, Brown, Morrison, Stanton
At lease A’s are demanding high price centerpieces, not good that we have a team not willing to give in yet
As much as I hate selling off our players like this...
This is actually pretty exciting stuff given the frenzy of interest and possiblity of overpay
I think that's the only way a deal gets done
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 10:14 AM PST up reply actions
So basically 2 B+ prospects, a B a B-/C+ and a couple of low upside throw ins?
That would be a good deal, but I wouldn’t jump for joy about it. I’d rather have an A/A- prospect and not so many guys.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 11:28 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I agree if the A/A- prospect has had a full season in AA or AAA
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 11:56 AM PST up reply actions
But then he'd be too old in 2015
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 12:20 PM PST up reply actions
huh?
Even if he were to play a full year in 2012, he’d still be under team control through 2017. How’s that too old?
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 12:27 PM PST up reply actions
Well it's not of course.
Not to mention we’ll be big market by then and don’t care about team control as much.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 12:29 PM PST up reply actions
Carlos Gonzalez was a B+ (Sickels said A- if his plate discipline was better)
Anderson was a B, Cunningham was a B-, Carter was a C+. Smith and Eveland were not ranked.
Hmmm....that's different from what I remember but my memory sucks in old age
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 2:57 PM PST up reply actions
I remember Anderson being A-/B+
Or was that after a year in the A’s system? Also, I though Carter was closer to B than he was to C.
That was after they both spent 2008 in Stockton.
Anderson posted a FIP of 2.81, and Carter hit .259/.360/.569 with 39 homeruns.
In a way, I really want to keep Cahill and sign him to an extension
Because playing in San Jose, with Cahill on the mound at a stadium located on Cahill St. would be awesome.
Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.
I mean to make sure he's here if/when the A's are in San Jose
for pure irony factor
Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.
oh gotcha...
nah get a good defense and hope for a recovery year… and deal him like Gonzalez
Side Note: HOF lost all respect from me.
First shunning Bill King for year after year after after being the #1 fan vote recipient…
Now putting in Tim McCarver, one of the universally recognized WORST announcers in sports? Sigh… next year will be Joe Buck, just watch.
Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.
Linky?
Where do you see Our Beloved Bill King being the #1 fan vote recipient ?
by As Fan in the Bronx on Dec 7, 2011 2:35 PM PST up reply actions
Does anyone actually, really care about the Ford Frick Award?
I mean, if Tim McCarver is winning over Bill King, then clearly there’s a flawed voting system, not worthy of our time or recognition.
Is the ballot run by the same dude who voted Michael Young 2011 MVP?
Hats for bats. Keep bats warm.
Yes Just a rant but by frustration....
McCarver winning the Frick award is bogus!!!! McCarver is the worst broadcaster. Him and Madden are in the same category of spewing non-sensical sentences on air. Congratulations to McCarver and Joe Buck for winning my Idiot Broadcaster of the Year three years in a row!!!
On Gio I really hope they don’t ship him. I’m sick of watching this team not compete. I have been a fan for years and I’m starting to wonder if this team is worth watching or rooting or buying for. I mean I’m seriously thinking about getting four A’s jerseys to show my colors but I recently had an epiphany that I’m rooting for a team that DOES NOT WANT TO WIN!!!!! PERIOD!!!! Please some body tell me its going to be alright….:’(
by KingsAs49erSharks on Dec 7, 2011 10:46 AM PST reply actions
This team doesn't win with Gio
Why keep him and stink rather than roll the dice on prospects and hope to land a big fish?
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 7, 2011 10:59 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
show me the way to San Jose
when the A’s get a new stadium and the increased fan interest that inevitably comes with being the new place to see and be seen, they’ll have the ability to attract good players once again. Be patient. I know it’s difficult. I just want to watch the young guys this year – no CoJax or other sucky free agents.
There is absolute ZERO chance the Slegna sign Pujols
Even a lot if their own fan base realizes this. They’ll talk like their interested in some big names, do nothing, and when the backlash starts they’ll panic and make a stupid trade, just like last year.
by dashman33 on Dec 7, 2011 11:01 AM PST via mobile reply actions
they did make crawford a huge offer, didn't they?
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 7, 2011 11:06 AM PST up reply actions
I believe they were going to?
For some reason my memory says they were just late with an offer or something? But yeah, they offered a big deal. Here’s a link that should show that.
Ironically Crawford was just as bad as Wells last year. I'd rather have him going forward though.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 11:30 AM PST up reply actions
Well they've already improved their team by upgrading big time at catcher.
No more making jokes about Jeff Mathis unfortunately…
He could still go back there if the Jays non-tender him
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 11:30 AM PST up reply actions
That's true. Maybe they'll trade him to the Rangers...
And he’ll be completely awesome like Napoli. Sure there’s no evidence that that could happen…but I’m still annoyed with that trade. Should I get over it, yeah.
makes more sense than Wilson for them, IMO
"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer
by cuppingmaster on Dec 7, 2011 11:48 AM PST up reply actions
Tigers?
Would Jacob Turner and Nick Castellanos be enough for Gio?
It would be a start.
The Tigers apparently didn’t like the idea of giving up more than Turner, though.
It would be enough for me
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 11:31 AM PST up reply actions
Me too
…but the Tigers board doesn’t think they’d offer either Turner/Castellanos or Turner/Boesch.
I think I’d be willing to go for Montero and chump change. That would give us a middle of the order thumper and we could stop worrying about 1b.
Neither of these deals impress me
WIth the Tigers or the Yankees.
Why are we resigning ourselves to the fact that Gio gets traded this offseason?
In my opinion, Beane should have a very short list of teams that have enough talent to even be able to consider a trade for Gio right now. I’d say maybe 5 teams total have enough depth in their system to make a trade with Oakland right now.
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 12:18 PM PST up reply actions
and Texas and KC
are apparently not interested – Tampa Bay has been quiet. Texas might be more interested come next week, however, if Wilson signs with the Marlins or the Angels.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Texas come back with a reactionary move
Oh man, a deal fronted by Profar would be so sweet.
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 12:29 PM PST up reply actions
They seem to be satisfied with Feliz. Not sure why they'd need another
starter. Feliz is probably better than Wilson anyway.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 12:47 PM PST up reply actions
I agree Feliz could be a very good starter
But calling a guy who hasn’t made a big league start yet, nor pitched over 70 innings the last 2 years better than a pitcher coming off of a 5.9 WAR season is hyperbole.
Also, I really want Feliz to be terrible as a starter.
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 1:02 PM PST up reply actions
I suspect Feliz will do better in the projections -- ZiPS and PECOTA
than Wilson, but we’ll see. I doubt Wilson projects anywhere near 5.9 WAR.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 1:05 PM PST up reply actions
Granted, it was his first shot at starting at such a high level of competition
But Feliz struggled pretty mightily last spring when they were stretching him out as a starter. He could be another Jonathan Pappelban.
ZiPS has Feliz at a 3.00 ERA as a reliever and Wilson at 3.80 as a starter
so it’s pretty close and Wilson may be slightly ahead.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 8:12 PM PST up reply actions
At some point, ZiPS doesn't have the answer to everything...
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 10:34 PM PST up reply actions
OK, if we're allowed to make random predictions based on
our gut and baseball expertise, I’m picking Feliz to have a better year in 2012 and a much better career than Wilson.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 10:41 PM PST up reply actions
Touche
I’m just not huge on ZiPs like you are, in certain cases like this. I find it hard for a prediction system to have solid accuracy for future performance from a reliever turned starter, when we have no idea how the last 2 years have affected him, both in terms of durability and pitch selection.
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 10:43 PM PST up reply actions
So your alternative is........
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 10:57 PM PST up reply actions
Guessing
It’s just as accurate in this instance.
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 11:23 PM PST up reply actions
Not unless you're a mighty good guesser
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 8:29 AM PST up reply actions
I disagree with you in principle but not in practice
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 9:00 AM PST up reply actions
I am Guessing
I would guess that is what Beane has is a very short list of teams and players. But, he also wants there to be a precieved demand of that Gio is the best and possibly only real ace available and that everyone wants him. If he can get one of those select teams to believe that it going take a block buster deal and there is a chance that one of your rivals could end up with him just maybe he gets his asking price. The one way to get the Yankees to go higher is if the Red Sox are involved (If they believe they are the only game in town it is easier to back away leave him in oakland then to try and explain to your fans how another team was able to get him and you were not). The one way to get a NL team to go higher is the belief that the Phillies are making a serious bid.
ogallalabob
You're a tough cooke
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 12:17 PM PST up reply actions
I would want one of the three B lefties they have. Preferably Smyly, IMO.
If you add a throw-in, that’s pretty similar to the Haren deal. It might be better.
yuck? really?
Turner projects as a #3 starter at best – he has slightly above average stuff. Gio is a potential #1/#2 starter and has proven that now in the big leagues. I can’t imagine Beane settling for Turner alone, let alone Turner and Boesch (who is basically a Ryan Sweeney +)
I wouldn't call Turner a #3 at best....most likely non injury maybe but he does supposedly have more upside
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 12:17 PM PST up reply actions
That's what the guys at Project Prospect
and Sickels seemed to think he would project as. His stuff isn’t nearly as impressive as Gio’s, and though his control in the minors has been better than Gio’s was, his K rate isn’t near what Gio’s was.
Sickels gave him a straight A grade and called him "a durable workhorse number two"
That doesn’t sound like a #3 upside. I’ve no idea who or what Project Prospect is.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 12:26 PM PST up reply actions
projectprospect.com
is a good alternative prospect site. But yeah, Sickels loves Turner. This guy seems to be just making up stuff.
Turner's not even 21 and he's done very well or dominated every level he's played at.
Well enough for the Tigers to give him a taste, though Detroit is notorious for rushing prospects.
I've seen him compared to Porcello for that very reason
and he apparently has similar stuff and groundball tendencies, though his K rate will likely be higher based on his performance in the minors.
And Porcello was an uber-prospect. They don't always turn into Roy Halladay.
It didn’t help him that Detroit rushed the absolute hell out of him. Either way, Porcello’s fWAR from 2009-2011 have been 2.0, 2.0, and 2.7. He’s not exactly a slouch.
Angel Pagan to the Giants for Torres and Ramon Ramirez
Amazingly, I actually like this move for the Giants. Pagan had all the right metrics last year to suggest a bounceback 2012 (K rate down, BB rate up, LD rate up). Ramon Ramirez also had a much improved 2011 (much better FIP, etc.) but the I’m ok with trading him for a decent bat.
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 7, 2011 11:27 AM PST reply actions
Sort of an unrealistic proposal
But what if the A’s were to ask for AJ Burnett in a Gio Gonzalez deal and agree to take on a significant portion of Burnett’s salary? I think there are a few benefits to this:
(warning: links do not appear to open a new tab…I don’t know how to do that)
- Potentially be able to get exactly the prospects that they want from the Yankees. According to John Harper, the A’s asked for Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos or Dellin Betances, and Mason Williams. Now Harper calls the deal “laughable” but if the A’s were willing to take on Burnett and his contract, the Yankees might have to consider the deal. I’m not a prospect maven, but a Montero, Banuelos, Williams package looks awfully nice.
- Burnett fits nicely into the rotation and gets a chance to rebuild his value in the spacious Oakland Coliseum. Come the trade deadline or next offseason, the A’s may be able to flip Burnett again for a couple of prospects (especially if they agree to continue paying his contract).
I don’t know how plausible this idea is mostly because 1. I don’t know if Burnett has enough negative trade value to convince the Yankees to add talent to their package and 2. The salary relief of offloading Burnett to the A’s may not be as attractive to the Yankees as it would be to other teams as payroll space isn’t as big of an issue. Still if the A’s can swing a Gonzalez for Montero, Banuelos, Williams and Burnett package, I think they should explore the possibility.
I think that the Yankees still view Burnett as an actual trade chip, and not something they need to dump
Even if it is wrong.
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 7, 2011 11:34 AM PST up reply actions
I think Burnett could still be pretty good. He was somewhat unlucky last year
3.86 xFIP and 3.89 SIERA aren’t bad
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 11:36 AM PST up reply actions
I'm all for this, but I doubt the Yankees are that concerned with Burnett's contract
I think they’re probably interested in getting something back of value for him. I propose throwing in Sweeney or someone like that.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 11:34 AM PST up reply actions
This begs the question, however;
How much of an upgrade over Burnett is Gonzalez? If you’re the Yankees, are you willing to give up that many top prospects for a one run improvement in FIP? Because, as someone else mentioned, I don’t think Burnett’s salary is an issue for the Yankees. You’re talking about a team that eats bad contracts like Pacman eats power pellets.
I doubt Gio projects to have a 1 run better ERA than Burnett
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 12:19 PM PST up reply actions
really?
I would think that’s pretty much a given
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 7, 2011 1:32 PM PST up reply actions
ZiPS has Gio at 4.30, Burnett at 4.50
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 2:54 PM PST up reply actions
interesting
I guess you also gotta take into account the fact that Gio doesn’t have a real injury history, and Burnett isn’t guaranteed to pitch a game.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 7, 2011 3:20 PM PST up reply actions
I really don't see what Beane asked for
as being “laughable”. What exactly are people thinking Beane is going to ask for? Those two are probably NYY’s most attractive pieces, and behind them the talent drops off a decent amount IMO. Also, anyone else think Montero is being somewhat overrated at this point? I believe in his bat, although maybe not quite to the point that some do, but am I wrong in thinking that in another couple-few years he’s going to be another one dimensional player, limited to DH/1B, because of his lacking defense?
I'd see Montero as being more of a piece
that the A’s could spin for another high value position player prospect – preferably a 3B or OFer – the way they did with Wallace. He’s a yet ANOTHER bat without a position, and we have a glut of 1B/DH guys in the upper levels of our system as it is. Unless the A’s see him sticking at Catcher….
I like Montero more than you seem to. I think he'd be the A's best player and could be a
perennial 4 WAR 1B.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 12:18 PM PST up reply actions
This is, of course, assuming he can actually play 1B
Seems like most of what I have read is that he’s a DH in a few years.
"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer
by cuppingmaster on Dec 7, 2011 12:20 PM PST up reply actions
I think that's because he'd be a worse defender than Teixeira.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 12:23 PM PST up reply actions
but Carter could possibly be a
perennial 2-4 WAR 1B too, couldn’t he? I guess I’d just rather allocate that value elsewhere on the field, such as in the places where our system is barren – like the left side of the infield and the OF.
Yes, if we can be picky about positions I would prefer a non 1B.
But I wouldn’t take a worse projected player to fill a position
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 12:37 PM PST up reply actions
If he learns to play there passably, sure
But there are real concerns about that. And whether he can stick anywhere in the lineup, to be honest. Hopefully this year we’ll find out.
"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer
by cuppingmaster on Dec 7, 2011 12:39 PM PST up reply actions
Unless he's blocked by Conor Jackson
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 12:40 PM PST up reply actions
ughhhh
"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer
by cuppingmaster on Dec 7, 2011 12:41 PM PST up reply actions
To make links open in a separate window:
If you’re using the link button that AN provides, just check the box that says “Open in New Window?”.
If you’re typing out the code, insert target="new" somewhere inside the brackets for the <A HREF … > code.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Gio not likely to be traded at Winter Meetings?
Afterwards, perhaps then?
Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.
Didn't Billy Beane already leave the Winter Meetings?
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 7, 2011 11:36 AM PST up reply actions
this is par for the course, right?
I mean, Slusser has noted that Beane generally prefers to finalize any deals after the meetings because he isn’t as comfortable working in that setting. And besides, as Rebuilding Season mentioned, he left on Tuesday night, and Forst is probably only laying ground work for potential deals and solidifying/improving offers that have already been made.
I have no idea what this means but it does sound reasonable
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 1:10 PM PST up reply actions
im against it
Don’t sell low. Unless the D’backs trade for the 2010 Cahill, which I doubt they will.
https://twitter.com/#!/Ken_Rosenthal/status/144502344250441728
Sorry not sure what happened there
Seems to happen a lot when I try to post links here.
The exclamation mark in twitter links breaks the link code.
Just paste the link in, then highlight it, then click the link button and paste it again.
Thank you sir
Just saw this after I attempted it again.
The equals sign also breaks the automatic coding for links,
as in URLs for SF Gate stories.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
https://twitter.com/#!/Ken_Rosenthal/status/144502344250441728
MLB Network saying Marlins out of running for Pujols now
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
which means they'll likely push big for Wilson, right?
which probably means they’re unwilling to trade for Gio – especially since they’ll likely not want to part with Morrison and company.
I thought they weren't big fans
but it stands to reason that the 2nd place bidder in the Pujols race is going to be in on Fielder. That is, unless the Cubs make him an offer he can’t resist first.
Tom Verducci on MLB Network jsut said they offered CJ Wilson a 6 year deal
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
I think he's probably waiting for the Angels
offer him a similar if not better deal – he’s a SoCal boy and has gone on the record as saying he’d love to play on the West Coast. I think MLB trade rumors said the Angels had a 4 year deal with an option on the table.
Family Guy:
mash – v. – to reduce to a soft pulpy state by beating or pressure
inter – v. – to deposit a dead body in a tomb
"That’s ******* scary." - The Copper & Blue, on Sharks prospect Brandon Mashinter
by SwisherThresher on Dec 7, 2011 1:18 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
To be fair, I did like McCarver as a Met broadcaster in the 1980s. Sort of sad to see the
game and, well, the world, pass him by.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 1:20 PM PST up reply actions
Grew up in Jersey
And thought he was great with the Mets. As usual, Joe Pos summed him up pretty well:
http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2011/10/baseball-on-fox.html
And I loved McCarver. Absolutely loved the guy. Every at-bat, it seemed, he taught me baseball. It was that way for a long time. I honestly believe that McCarver was one of the great pioneers in baseball commentary, the John Madden of his sport in many ways. He was the first I knew who could really break down what the pitcher was trying to do, why he was trying to do it, how the hitter was trying to counter it, and so on. He broke down the game in a way I can never remember any other color commentator doing it. And he was a good story teller too. If I’m listing the greatest color commentators in baseball history, he’s right up at the top.
…
McCarver can still wow you now and again. There was a moment on Sunday when he picked up that Yadier Molina had called a full-count pitch verbally against Nelson Cruz, and McCarver brilliantly deduced that Edwin Jackson was going to throw a slider and it probably was not going to be in the strike zone. Sure enough, Jackson threw a slider out of the strike zone. McCarver still understands the pitcher-catcher relationship better than just about anybody in the business.
Yes, I highlighted the positives, but he still does have occasional moments like the above and everyone dwells on the negatives.
I consider myself lucky to have grown up listening to him in NY and Jon Miller doing Orioles games when I spent time at my grandparents in Maryland during the summers.
by ChuckBudd on Dec 7, 2011 7:43 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Kudos to Posnanski.
The negative reaction to McCarver winning the award shows the split between the short memory of today’s fans and the long memory of the people voting the award.
In the distant past, McCarver was very good; now, he sucks. The baseball blogosphere sees only the now.
Does the Frick award celebrate current achievement or lifetime achievement? Given that BIll King is a candidate, I assume it’s the latter.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
that’s why death is important. as soon as someone dies, we all go back to remembering the positives. in other words, let tim mccarver die. until then… i’m gonna keep in mind 5-letter words and candidates who were loved and made meanigfull contributions to baseball throughout their career.
by AV on Dec 8, 2011 9:34 AM PST up reply actions
Alternately, he could have retired...
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
When McCarver was good (I'll take JoPo's word for it), he was working in New York
That’s why he won the award. Bill King’s transcendent excellence was, and apparently will remain, our little secret.
by Glorious Mundy on Dec 8, 2011 9:38 AM PST up reply actions
i agree. the ford c frick award doesn't mean bill king was great. he truly was. the only ones that need to recognize his greatness is us and we do. enuff for me
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
If guessing that Edwin Jackson is going to throw a pitch out of the strike zone is enough to get you into the HOF...
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
by Nick on Dec 8, 2011 6:31 AM PST up reply actions 3 recs
Olney says the Marlins want to trade Hanley Ramirez and use the money on Fielder
I’d take a chance on Hanley but I’m not sure what they want in return. If it could be something around Cahill it might be worth it
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
Sure, if it makes him happy.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 2:59 PM PST up reply actions
yes. seems like 90% of MLB teams would want Hanley
And at least 20 are interested in Gio and/or Bailey per Susan Slusser’s tweet yesterday (that she talked to scouts from 20 teams who expressed interest)
There are a lot of possibilities…
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 7, 2011 1:36 PM PST up reply actions
How about...
St. Louis receives: Hanley Ramirez
Marlins receive: Gio Gonzalez
Oakland receives: Carlos Martinez or Tyrell Jenkins, Oscar Taveras, and Matt Carpenter
I don't know enough about other teams minor league systems to intelligently comment on this from the A's perspective
But, we’d probably have to throw in some prospect (like a C prospect) in the deal to give to the Marlins, only because Hanley Ramirez for Gio Gonzalez straight up might be a tough sell.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 7, 2011 3:12 PM PST up reply actions
Three years of Hanley for four years of Gio.
Also, Hanley declined a bit the last two years, so there may be some concern he’s not as good as he was.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Gonzalez is younger, cheaper, and under team control for an extra year.
In the past year, Hanley was benched for not hustling and had shoulder surgery. Somebody might want to throw in a reliever for St. Louis’ sake.
Obviously, Hanley is a stud, but isn't he going to try even less hard if he's with the A's?
I mean, the guy is grumping about moving to 3rd base for a team that’s shaping up to make a World Series run. How is he going to react when he’s back playing in another crappy stadium with a losing team? Plus, where does Cliff Pennington go? We might still have to move Hanley to 3rd, anyway.
At this point, he sounds like an all-star Milton Bradley infielder, but no where near as weird or excitable. I don’t think I’d trade Gio Gonzalez for that, especially considering we might get some very good not-clubhouse-cancer prospects in return from elsewhere.
Hats for bats. Keep bats warm.
changing leagues
doesn’t matter as much as it used to I guess but it will be a pretty big adjustment for him.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 7, 2011 2:34 PM PST up reply actions
I don't think it's either/or
They could probably still drop the $21M annually on Pujols.
They were looking to sign CJ or Buerhle anyways, I think.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 7, 2011 2:49 PM PST up reply actions
They supposedly haven't taken that offer off the table
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 2:52 PM PST up reply actions
I kind of like what they're doing.
Although, I don’t ever see a 10 year contract as a good thing. I wouldn’t want to be hamstrung by that in the latter years of the deal. I mean it is Pujols but at some point it seems like it could get to be too much money than even he is worth, right?
I wouldn't care if I were hamstrung or hung by testicles if I had a couple
of World Series titles in the first few years
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 2:58 PM PST up reply actions
That's an excellent point.
It sure would be nice to have a couple of World Series titles. But the Phillies with all that starting pitching didn’t win it last year. The Yankees with all the money they throw around don’t win it every year either. Pujols, Reyes and Buerhle certainly would help.
True and all the teams with no talent and lots of financial flexibility didn't win either
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 3:13 PM PST up reply actions
I'm glad Buerhle got 4 years
I’ve always liked the guy, and I hope he plays long enough to make the HOF…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 5:03 PM PST up reply actions
It's certainly possible. 161 Wins by Age 32 means he'll need to win 15 games/yr
for 6 years to get to 250. He has 46.6 rWAR, so he’ll need about 4 WAR/yr for those 6 years to get to 70, which would put him in Schilling, Glavine, Sutton, and Mussina territory. Not much of a peak and a decent but unspectacular postseason resume, so he’d have to be a career candidate.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 8:20 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, my thoughts exactly
He does have a no-hitter and perfect game to his name, which certainly helps.
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 10:36 PM PST up reply actions
Slusser says another AL Team in on Gio
So I guess that makes 13?
Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.
Evan Grant
is saying the Rangers, and it has more legs then the Bailey rumors ever did.
http://rangersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2011/12/rangers-discuss-gio-gonzalez.html
Not sure if this is what
SuSlu was referring too…if I had to pick a teams farm system to invade, Texas would definitely be near the top of the list.
Yeah, but I'd rather we invade their farm system through a Bailey trade.
I don’t want to see Gio pitching against us. But they do have some pretty good prospects we could get in return from what I hear everyone on hear saying.
interestingly
The reports seems to say that Beane wants to trade Bailey before Gio. I guess that is because Beane knows there’s enough interest there for him, and a good closer is expendable. But the specific Bailey rumors have kind of died down.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 7, 2011 3:16 PM PST up reply actions
Probably has to do with the scarcity of closer jobs
Eventually they all fill up, if teams don’t like the price on Bailey they’ll grab the next guy on their list. Once you’ve got a closer you’re not likely to spend much for an upgrade. There will always be more rotations slots in the league than quality starting pitchers, so a guy like Gio will always have a number suitors.
Nah.
With closers getting $10M per year and more on the FA market, a guy with multiple years of cheap team control left like Bailey has value.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Yea he definitely has value
But if Boston or Texas decide to try a lesser player in the closer role they’re not likely to stay in the hunt for Bailey. At least not until mid-season when these lesser closers start blowing a bunch of saves.
Would he close in Texas?
Didn’t they just sign Joe Nathan? I thought he would end up closing for them. I don’t see why they would give up much for him if they were only using him as a reliever. Not that they should care if he closes or not.
Joe Nathan wasn't anything special last year.
He posted a total of 0.0 fWAR. Bailey would close unless Nathan proved himself healthy, and even then it’d probably be a coin flip.
What was the injury he had the year before?
I recall him being out for the year or something in 2010? Could he have just still been trying to recover? Or do you think he’s really declined to be down to almost nothing? Replacement level WAR? Either way I don’t see Bailey on the team anymore and as long as we get something good in return I don’t care where he goes.
Nathan was working back from injury last year
but he’s 37. I wouldn’t put too much stock in a full recovery.
Yup
I dunno if Texas is willing to give him up or not, but the kid’s going to be a star…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 5:04 PM PST up reply actions
Let's be real -- All The Teams want him. Everyone. On the planet.
"This must be heaven," he says.
"No. It's Oakland."
because he's dreamy!
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
I hope the A's can trade Cahill also, why not. Get two Dan Haren deals plus trade Bailey.
Team will have plenty of potential in a few years.
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
yes, sir. except my favorite player Mark Ellis
oh wait, too late for that.
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
by HUNGRY HUNTER on Dec 7, 2011 3:00 PM PST up reply actions
Apparently, a man fell into the pool at the winter meetings...
by LongLiveLangerhans on Dec 7, 2011 2:57 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
like this lady
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ic2xhxi8UK0&feature=related
epic fail lmao
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
by HUNGRY HUNTER on Dec 7, 2011 3:03 PM PST up reply actions
funny as heck, good thing the hot stove was not on.
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
by HUNGRY HUNTER on Dec 7, 2011 3:11 PM PST up reply actions
they showed it on Intentional Talk
Got Heeeem segment
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
blockbuster trades, not the only way to make a splash.
by AV on Dec 7, 2011 4:21 PM PST up reply actions
Daric's looking kinda old, isn't he?
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
by Nick on Dec 7, 2011 6:17 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
OH!
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 7:28 PM PST up reply actions
There's no way in hell they'd trade Lawrie, right?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
D'Arnaud, Gose, and someone else?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
He could be a character in Skyrim!
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
And Magnusson and Farquhar
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 8:24 PM PST up reply actions
Was just thinking about this
And while I seriously doubt it, that would be fuckin fantastical!
that clarifies it.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
So you don't root for Brett Anderson either after the picture he posted online either?
or do you just not understand that 20 year old kids do dumb shit. A LOT.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
by mikev on Dec 7, 2011 3:48 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
He's closer to AJ Pierzynski than Brett Anderson
in my mind
by BWH on Dec 7, 2011 3:54 PM PST up reply actions
Some wierd thing on twitter with a bunch of money in his hands
and a skank on each arm.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
At least the skanks weren't duct taped to him
by Glorious Mundy on Dec 7, 2011 3:58 PM PST up reply actions
That's a popular drinking game.
I really don’t see the big deal.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
I'm joking, of course
I don’t care about this at all. Must admit that I hadn’t heard about the the tape-yourself-to-40 craze sweeping the nation, however.
by Glorious Mundy on Dec 7, 2011 4:02 PM PST up reply actions
"Edward 40-hands"
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
How dare you! They were nice ladies!
"You can attract a hitter but you can't make him hit" -Lou Wolff
by Geronimo Berroa on Dec 7, 2011 4:01 PM PST up reply actions
That Brett Anderson picture doesn't compare
Lawrie has multiple pictures and talk about him being difficult to deal with.
Anderson put a picture he thought was funny online. Once.
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 5:06 PM PST up reply actions
plus he had a bunch of attitude problems in the Brewers' minor league system
that were said to have been a factor in their decision to move him.
Think Bryce Harper. Just does a lot of stuff that kinda makes you roll your eyes.
by BWH on Dec 7, 2011 3:48 PM PST up reply actions
Sigh, fine.
Just to be nice, we’ll take Brett Lawrie and Bryce Harper.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I watched him hit a ball in Las Vegas
last season that was deep, down the line in left and after he hit it he flicked his bat and began walking to first. The ball then hit the wall just below the foul pole and he then decided it was time to run. Definitely rubbed me the wrong way, especially considering I had just read about his make-up issues, but I still wouldn’t mind the dude mashing the ball for Oakland.
Manny Ramirez did that.
He turned out OK.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Sure
Manny was also actually playing in the MLB, not in a minor league game against a career minor league pitcher. Just not a fan of this style of play. I appreciate players with insane skill that can go about it in a humble manner. I would love him in Oakland regardless considering his talent, just thought it was a relevant story to share.
Isn't this the guy who pissed the A's off with his home run celebration, leading to a benches-clearing brawl?
by Glorious Mundy on Dec 7, 2011 3:56 PM PST up reply actions
Don't remember the brawl
but I do remember him pissing off both the A’s and the Red Sox with his antics.
by BWH on Dec 7, 2011 4:06 PM PST up reply actions
I don't want Lawrie anyway
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 5:04 PM PST up reply actions
Wait. I really don't like the guy....
…but I’d like to have him playing 3B and batting cleanup for my team.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Aside from personal opinion of him as a person
I’m also not sold on him as a player.
I dunno what happened in 2011, but I don’t see that player going forward. I expect him to be closer to the hitter we saw in 2009-2010, and slightly worse, IMO…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 10:39 PM PST up reply actions
And what basis do you have for this prediction?
He’s had sparkling scouting reports from pretty much everybody. Keep in mind how young he was for those levels. I would take Lawrie every single time.
I never claimed they were rational
Just a hunch he’s not going to be the player he was last year. Playing in Las Vegas does funny things to players, they come up having put up ridiculous numbers and then keep it up for a little bit. Then BOOM! they are an average player who I don’t like anymore.
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 8, 2011 8:39 AM PST up reply actions
what are they going to offer for him?
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
by HUNGRY HUNTER on Dec 7, 2011 5:27 PM PST up reply actions
Tweets from SuSlu:
David Forst confirms significant interest in #Athletics’ top players.
Forst said #Athletics continue to look for best young players available in any potential deal, and not position-specific.
#Athletics aren’t going to make any moves tonight. They always wait until after meetings to make any major deals.
Forst confirmed what I wrote earlier today: #Athletics happy to hang onto top players if the right deals aren’t available this offseason.
Forst: “There is no mandate to trade guys.” He notes none of players other teams are calling on are in the final year of deals. #Athletics
One of Gio Gonzalez’s assets is that he is a super-2. He is under team control for four more years. And he never misses a start. #Athletics
Joe Stiglich added:
#Athletics have one spot open on 40-man, so they’ll definitely consider taking someone in Rule 5 draft, Forst says.
"You're all like big, fat failure turtles." - Edge
by Rated-R Superstar on Dec 7, 2011 4:30 PM PST reply actions
Tim McCarver Be a Man
and step aside and give the Ford C. Frick Award to a man who really deserves it Bill King. The fact that Bill King is being ignored by “big media” is an absolute travesty.
If Tim McCarver steps aside and gives it to Bill King I promise I will vote for Tim McCarver like 20 times next year and tell all my friends to do the same thing.
Cloudiness Surrounds Gio's Future
There’s some misunderstanding surrounding #Athletics and Gio. They don’t feel the need to move him. They’re happy to keep him if no match.
"You can attract a hitter but you can't make him hit" -Lou Wolff
This seems to me that someone is saying Gio isn't too happy with Oakland right now...
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 6:15 PM PST up reply actions
I don't hear that at all
I read it as all this talk of interest in Gio makes it seem like he’s 100% to be traded. The tweet says that is not the case.
by BWH on Dec 7, 2011 6:19 PM PST up reply actions
I would guess that someone from the FO has had a conversation with him at some point about the possibility of being traded.
Even if it’s just in a general context.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 7, 2011 6:27 PM PST up reply actions
There's "buzz" around Craig Breslow?
Why? Did he bump into a bee hive? People think Breslow is good?
MexicAN AmericAN VegAN
Yeah, there's not much not to like.
He’s decent, reliable, and figures to be affordable in terms of salary and prospects.
Plus he's a rocket scientist
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 8:25 PM PST up reply actions
He's a good pitcher, but I would also characterize him
as a good example for relievers generally being “fungible”. It’s not that hard to find a reliever who is a bit inconsistent from year to year, but is quite decent overall. In fact, the A’s got Breslow from the scrap heap and if they lost him I have little doubt they could replace him adequately.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Oh, and I should add that I tend not to view relievers as "fungible" as many others do
I think a good, deep bullpen is quite valuable. But it’s all relative, and middle relievers need to be awfully good in order to be “impact” players.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
fungible ≠ valueless
Ever since it was quoted somewhere that relievers are fungible, people have been misinterpreting that as meaning they are worthless. They’re not.
In economics, a good is considered fungible if an equal amount of the same good is functionally equivalent. Cash, for instance, is fungible, because this dollar bill is just as good as that dollar bill. If someone takes you dollar bill and gives you back someone else’s, you’re no worse off. In contrast, if someone takes your jacket and gives you back someone else’s, then you may have a problem (or a windfall).
The talk about relievers being fungible simply suggests that you needn’t be afraid of trading them away, because you can always get them back when you need them (in the form of someone else who is functionally equivalent). That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t get value for one when you do trade him — just as you’ll have to give up value when you get one back — only that you can do the transaction easily.
This also makes relievers a good thing to collect when you want to make a trade but there’s nothing in particular you need right now. I believe that’s what Beane did with Rajai Davis. When Toronto wanted Rajai, Beane was willing to let him go but didn’t have anything in particular he wanted back, so he took the trade in relievers. Later, when he needed a third-baseman, he swapped one of the relievers for Scott Sizemore.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
by iglew on Dec 8, 2011 12:38 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
I guess my point was that you wouldn't expect teams to give up value
for something that was easy to replace. I do see Breslow as easy to replace, yet I also could see a team offering something of value to get him. Which is a bit paradoxical, IMO.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I don't disagree with any of this.
But I also can easily see a scenario where a GM says “Oh, and could you throw in that Breslow guy?”.
Absolutely.
I think he can simultaneously be fungible, and of value in a trade. You just need to throw in enough bottles of Tinactin.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Sorry, but...
…I just cannot get past the McCarver thing. Ugh!
A hot dog at the ballgame beats roast beef at the Ritz.
~Humphrey Bogart
it seems that Mr. Lawyerball
is about to sign with the slegnA. Good, all the more reason to hate both.
Plus it has ample potential to be a bad signing
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
It's very good.
My standard for “ridiculous,” though is “Halladay/Lee/Hamels”.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
that Oswalt fellow made for a pretty serviceable "4th starter"
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Ah, The Four Aces...
… and Joe Blanton
"He's listed as day to day, but then again, aren't we all?" — Vin Scully
I love that picture so much
"He's listed as day to day, but then again, aren't we all?" — Vin Scully
Is Oswalt a FHOF? He seems similarly qualified as Buehrle but with back issues
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 9:56 PM PST up reply actions
He sounds like a magazine.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
You mean that thing that holds the bullets?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 7, 2011 10:08 PM PST up reply actions
I'd think he needs to play 5 more years
And if he doesn’t get the deal he wants I could see him signing a 1 year deal with a contender this year and hanging it up after.
I remember even when he was 25 that he was saying he’d quit on his terms, that he didn’t think he’d pitch to 35…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 10:41 PM PST up reply actions
I'd MUCH rather see them sign Wilson
instead of Pujols.
"He's listed as day to day, but then again, aren't we all?" — Vin Scully
I know Wilson's a jerk, but that seems a little harsh.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
"Spending your SS on Wilson doesn't mean jack"
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Hey does anyone know what's going on with Justin Duchscherer?
He signed with Baltimore and never pitched. Is he out of baseball now? How’s his depression issue going? Anybody heard anything on him?
He had problems with his hip, which had been operated on.
I’m pretty sure it was the injury that kept him off the field, not any recurrence of the depression.
The Orioles released him in August.
It’d be interesting if someone would track him down for an interview. Is he still hoping to return some day, or has he accepted the idea of retiring from baseball.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
As much as I love Gio -
and I am crazy about the guy – it really seems like he’s getting overrated right now. Without some significant leap in getting his control problems corrected (which he’s shown no inclination to do at any point in his career, and he’s 26 now), I don’t think it’s that likely that he gets any better than he is now. There’s also always the possibility that things get away from him for a year and really blow up his career.
So, yeah, I know the A’s would be nuts not to take the best offer when so many teams are interested and likely to overbid on him. But it really, really sucks to be an A’s fan at times like this.
Ahem
I would say that the dip from over 5 BB/9 to just above 4 BB/9 between 2009 and 2010 is a pretty solid correction.
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 7, 2011 10:46 PM PST up reply actions
It's better
But he was still 93rd out of 94th in BB/9 among qualified pitchers in 2011, right between James McDonald and Charlie Morton. Not a good place to be. Also second from the bottom in 2010.
by thelincolndude on Dec 7, 2011 10:53 PM PST up reply actions
Darvish being posted today
I wish we had the kind of cash for him. He’s got a cool background. He’s a good pitcher. And he’s just a really good guy. He’s Bill Brasky.
Nope.
When the A’s are ready to compete, Pujols won’t be worth anything close to what they’re paying him.
Does this mean Morales is available?
by Brett Narloch on Dec 8, 2011 7:25 AM PST up reply actions
I'm ready now.....
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 8:18 AM PST up reply actions
How did Man U lose to Basel?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 8:37 AM PST up reply actions
Well, because
Fuck Man U.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
I think I'm going to become a Grasshopper fan.....just because
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 8:40 AM PST up reply actions
I still can't get myself to "pick" an EPL team, just like that.
A good amount of people I know are getting into soccer now, and I always hear these discussions about who they should pick to follow and root for, etc…
It just seems really strange to me to do that. If an EPL match is on, I’ll watch it just because, but I don’t have any sort of connection to any of the squads so it seems, I dunno, fake I guess to just pick one and start rooting for them.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
I'm there with you on that one. I do root for teams that play
a style I like though
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 8:57 AM PST up reply actions
I'm been following Norwich City for 3 or 4 years
I chose them for a fundamentally silly reason — I played a season as Norwich City on FIFA 09 back when they were in the Championship, so they became my IRL team, as well. I stuck with them when they were relegated to League 1, to the extent that you can follow a League 1 team from the US, and have obviously enjoyed their back-to-back promotions and their season so far back in the EPL. It helps that they’re a fun team to watch, are generally likable, and have a great young manager. They’re one of those “everyone’s 2nd-favorite team” type of clubs.
The main reason for an A’s fan to support them, of course, is the kit:
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
I do like the kit
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 9:02 AM PST up reply actions
I may end up investing in a Simeon Jackson jersey
I only wish he’d trade his #10 for Grant Holt’s #9.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Isn't 10 more prestigious?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 9:13 AM PST up reply actions
Traditionally it refers to your position/role on the team
Holt is the team’s target man. Jackson is actually a very good player, a consistent starter on the Canadian National Team, who scored a series of late-game goals at the end of last season that won them their promotion.
I just want to be able to have a yellow-and-green Norwich City jersey with “Jackson 9” on the back.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Yes. That would be very cool.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 9:23 AM PST up reply actions
COYS
Of the million or so reasons why one should root for Spurs, a) Billy Beane and Rick Tittle are fans b) they played at Buck Shaw against the Earthquakes last year where I met both ‘Arry Redknap and Luka Modric c) they have a mutual cooperation agreement with the Quakes – shared resources and such – they are like our sister team d) they’re not the Gooners / ManU / City / Chelsea / Liverpool e) their glory (Glory Glory Nights) years were in the early 70s which roughly coincided with A’s WS run f) they have their own “Stadium Issues” g) they play by far the most attractive soccer in the EPL right now. As Chris Ryan stated recently, “Watching Spurs score a team goal is one of the great pleasures in sports right now.”
To Dare Is To Do
by SantaCruzSurfer on Dec 8, 2011 10:34 AM PST up reply actions
Spurs are my favorite among the Big Howevermany
for the reasons you state, especially the style of play. Evidently English fans find them very irritating because a lot of the London press fawn on them endlessly (IIRC OldhamA feels this way about them, but I could be misremembering).
For Americans, I’d add that they’re on ESPN and Fox Soccer a good deal, so you’d actually get to see them; and if you like watching US players their GK is Brad Friedel.
I have to admit I’ve really enjoyed watching Arsenal this year, too, mainly because RVP is so fantastic.
Didn’t the Quakes have a relationship with Norwich City in the past? That might have been the previous Quakes team, though, the one that skipped town and became Houston Dynamo. IIRC Darren Huckerby was the main bridge between the two teams — he seems to be the consensus Favorite Retired Canary, and was very popular with SJ, too.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
what is a huckerby?!?!
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
RvP is a man with his hair on fire
He has, what, now 32 goals for the calendar year. I believe the record is 36, and Arsenal has 5 matches to go.
by SantaCruzSurfer on Dec 8, 2011 1:01 PM PST up reply actions
If Oldham hates Spurs, that's enough for me.
SPURS!
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
I actually LIKE them already
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
Well you are a soulless monster so you'll fit right in.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
Spurs it is!
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Oldham is bitter
because he’s a Wigan and Rovers fan (wtf?). How is that even possible? Its like saying, “I’m a PIrates fan AND a Orioles fan.”
by SantaCruzSurfer on Dec 8, 2011 1:11 PM PST up reply actions
The Panthers have been very successful.
So have Blackburn Rovers. So have Wigan Warriors.
So have the A’s, apparently although I’ve never seen it.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
Seriously, though
What are you going to do when Rovers and Wigan are battling it out to avoid relegation (on May 5)?
by SantaCruzSurfer on Dec 8, 2011 1:24 PM PST up reply actions
Blackburn Rovers and Wigan Warriors could never play each other.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
Ah
I got it. Wigan THE RUGBY TEAM. Sorry. Million pardons.
by SantaCruzSurfer on Dec 8, 2011 1:27 PM PST up reply actions
Hope you dont take this the wrong way
But I am finding all this abuse (and the energy and passion going into it) aimed at Steve Kean to be very amusing. :)
by SantaCruzSurfer on Dec 8, 2011 1:29 PM PST up reply actions
I will only be amused when he's found face down
in the River Darwen.
The man is a weasel.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
It's kind of weird how the players are sticking up for him, though
They may be bumbling, but it doesn’t seem as if they’ve quit on him.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
i can see the impulse to want to follow someone, but if you have no relevant connections, it’s absolutely silly to pick a team ahead of time. just watch the games and see where your allegiances start to fall. doesn’t matter if it’s macedonia v tanzania or city v united, i will find myself body-englishing to one side or the other soon enough.
on the other hand, why pick just one? the “pride” of having your team win is so far removed, does it really matter to you personally if you pick aresnal, chelsea, or united and they win? just watch ALL those games. and even if you’re rooting for someone, it doesn’t mean they’re the only ones you can root for.
i think i just described in the 1st ¶ my process for picking barça over madrid in la liga, and in the 2nd, what i do with serie A and the EPL.
by AV on Dec 8, 2011 9:54 AM PST up reply actions
I mostly started following Barca because.. Ronaldinho.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
and I have a #9 Real Madrid jersey that I wear for playing outdoor because
Ronaldo.
Not whiny bitch Portugal Ronaldo.
The real Ronaldo.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Don't be mean. He has a glandular problem or something.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Compromise: let's just agree he ate too many sweetbreads and Rocky Mountain oysters
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
who do you think i am, ESPN? i know my 7s from my 9s!
by AV on Dec 8, 2011 12:34 PM PST up reply actions
In cases like that, I pick the one
with uniform colors I like.
Or if I have some vague indirect connection to a city.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
If everyone followed that idea Blackburn Rovers would have the most fans in the world as we have the best kit and colours.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
I recall Alan Shearer playing for Blackburn Rovers.
but that’s all I remember
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Obviously you don't pay much attention to the Premier League.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
duh
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
It's significantly harder to follow when you're unwilling to pay $$
for Fox Soccer, GOL TV, Setanta, etc
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
why pay twice?
(what? ISP doesn’t stand for international sportstream procurer?)
by AV on Dec 8, 2011 2:43 PM PST up reply actions
Can you get ESPN 3 on your ISP?
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Yeah. I watch some of the games on that.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
I'm lucky that FSC is on my basic digital FIOS package
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
I'm not a huge fan of your kits
But I love your crest.
by Glorious Mundy on Dec 8, 2011 1:50 PM PST up reply actions
United were confusing them with Barca...
At one point in my life I liked Dave Kingman more than Rickey Henderson. I was stupid.
Well, only comfort is that Pujols will be pretty much lonely in that lineup
Unless the Angels add more bats through free agency. Trumbo will need to be traded or be moved to another position, Hunter is aging quickly as well as Abreu, with Wells being a marginal player for 2 years already and they only have 1 impact player on Triple A (Trout).
Pujols might make them contenders, but I still see the Rangers as favorites again for next year.
10 years and $250M?
That’s an awful lot and an awful long time for a 32-year-old. I think the Cardinals made the smartest move by not matching that.
That rug really tied the room together...
by Streams Of Whiskey on Dec 8, 2011 7:35 AM PST reply actions
Probably true, but sad nonetheless. Pujols should have had a statue next to Musial's here.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 8:20 AM PST up reply actions
Agreed.
That rug really tied the room together...
by Streams Of Whiskey on Dec 8, 2011 8:36 AM PST up reply actions
yeah. He shoulda stayed a lifetime Cardinal...but can you fault him for going for the 10/250?
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 8, 2011 10:04 AM PST up reply actions
I can
When he turns down 10/275
Link
Add to that the fact that he wouldn’t have to pay income taxes, and, damn, he turned down a lot more money to sign with the slegnA
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 8, 2011 10:22 AM PST up reply actions
He would have saved state income tax only on
home games. You still pay state tax to the state where you play for away games.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Wow, I really didn't know that
But still, that’s a ton of money saved right there…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 8, 2011 5:23 PM PST up reply actions
Pujols
That rug really tied the room together...
by Streams Of Whiskey on Dec 8, 2011 7:39 AM PST reply actions
This Sucks
I wish Albert hadn’t gone to the Angels, and I don’t look forward to facing him, but two things stem from this:
1) 260 million dollars is a crazy amount of money, and giving a 32 year-old, no matter who, is risky. This could sting the Halos in the waning years of his contract.
2) Now that Albert owns 1st base in Anaheim, does this mean there’s a chance to get Morales? I think, at least to the Angels, he’s less valuable then Trumbo, who I envision moving to the outfield. The thing is, the A’s may not go for it, with Barton, Allen, Carter and Ka’aihue all in the picture.
Sorry
" – and giving a 32 year-old, no matter who, a 10 year-contact is risky."
Of course, if that’s the case, the money will hurt ’em too.
I'm confused by all this obsession with the waning years of contracts.
If the Angels win a World Series or two in the first five years of the deal, why would they care about the last five? They weren’t going to be a World Series contender without Pujols and now they are. Granted their lineup isn’t going to be great until Trout shows up but still.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 8:23 AM PST up reply actions
It matters to the A's because they probably won't be in a position to compete...
Until Pujols is in those waning years.
by Brett Narloch on Dec 8, 2011 8:25 AM PST up reply actions
Well that sucks. I want to compete now!
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 8:26 AM PST up reply actions
I'm hoping this is the sort of contract that ends up ham stringing the Angles....
Much like Arod did for Texas. A guy can hope can’t he?
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
Well sure a guy can do anything he wants.....even illegal things as long as doesn't get caught
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 8:35 AM PST up reply actions
Well....
Albert looks like a fomidable guy in a bar fight. Guess I’ll have to pass!
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
Yes, in this scenario he's allowed to do illegal things too
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 8:39 AM PST up reply actions
Pujols Is Great
But he can’t singlehandedly make the Angels a championship team. He needs lineup protection which he doesn’t have right now, and might not get for a few years. If his production steadily decreases, the Halos’ lineup will rapidly worsen, and they will lose money.
In fact, I’ll make a prediction: the Angels will not win a WS with Pujols at first.
What about with Pujols at DH?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 8:34 AM PST up reply actions
He's An Excellent Defensive 1st Baseman
I think it would be a mistake to put him at DH, and I don;t think the Angels will do that.
They will when he's 36.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
His OBA dropped to .366 last year
He’s a very good hitter at a .366 OBA, but not worth $20 million a year at 1B or DH at that level. Maybe it was just an injury-related blip, but his walks dropped a lot — I don’t think it was a BABIP blip or anything.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
.366 OBA is pretty good for a guy with a broken arm
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 9:23 AM PST up reply actions
And one working leg, yeah
but the thing that gets me is his BB numbers. Even with the injuries, his BABIP dropped only 20 points (.297 to .277), which is nothing, really. But his BB% went from 14.7% to 9.4%, which is a lot.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
I'm curious to see how his body holds up next year
Pujols seems to keep getting these more minor injuries year after year. Will those eventually amount to something more severe?
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 8, 2011 10:24 AM PST up reply actions
I think they kind of have to at some point
He’s performed at such a high level that even a few small drop-offs — a small drop in BB rate, a small drop in HR as % of fly balls, a few more GIDPs due to slowing down, missing 10 or 15 games a year because of minor, nagging injuries — could wear into his WAR pretty noticeably.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
that's the thing, those last few years will be fine if you have him DH'ing
An overpay? Of course. But he won’t be bringing down your team.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 8, 2011 10:06 AM PST up reply actions
Rule 5 draft.
Took nobody, lost nobody in the major league portion.
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My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Ha! That's the guy we got for Eric Patterson.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Somebody's going to pay CJ Wilson more than $20M/year? That's way crazier than giving Pujols $250M over 10
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 8:24 AM PST up reply actions
Wow
How nice is it to wake up hoping for some juicy A’s rumors, and the first thing I see is!!!
“Angels to sign Albert Pujols”
“Angels to sign CJ Wilson”
FFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCCCCCCCCCCKKKKKKKKKKKKKK!!!!!!!!!!!!!
FUCK THE ANGELS!
"You can attract a hitter but you can't make him hit" -Lou Wolff
by Geronimo Berroa on Dec 8, 2011 8:08 AM PST reply actions 5 recs
I'm thinking this
Or they make sure to win the Darvish bid (assuming they have the resources available?). I’m drooling at the thought of digging through their system for prospects in a trade for Gio AND Bailey…
Let's hope so!
"You can attract a hitter but you can't make him hit" -Lou Wolff
by Geronimo Berroa on Dec 8, 2011 8:12 AM PST up reply actions
Bailey
Would the Rangers still want Bailey after signing Joe Nathan to close?
Writer at FakeTeams
Writer at MLB Daily Dish
They've Showed Interest
But it would get crazy, with Nathan, Gonzalez, Uehara and Bailey in the same bullpen, even if Feliz’s transition from reliever to starter goes smoothly.
I don't think Uehara is there to stay. He wasn't even on the World Series roster.
His FB tendencies aren’t Texas friendly.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 8:25 AM PST up reply actions
Yes... who wouldn't want Bailey in their bullpen?
It’s just a matter of how much they might be willing to part with for him. Whatever it was… it might be going up now.
by Brett Narloch on Dec 8, 2011 8:26 AM PST up reply actions
Is there any way we can get a
“Winter Meetings Open Thread: Day 4” thread?
Something tells me its about to get a little crazy in here….
Sure, I'll do it
oh.. wait.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
I think they'll regret that a lot more than the Pujols deal
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 8:25 AM PST up reply actions
a lot of regret going on down there when one includes the vernon wells deal
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
Wow, what a day for Anaheim
The West is gone for a looooong time between Anaheim and Texas now.
Bring back Hammer.
There's always that extra wild card spot....
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
The extra wild card spot
merely guarantees that the Red Sox and Yankees will be in the postseason every year.
You mean the AL East runner-up spot?
"He's listed as day to day, but then again, aren't we all?" — Vin Scully
by YonYonson on Dec 8, 2011 8:37 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I wonder if St. Louis will make any reactionary moves or just start selling.
They could potentially call up Matt Adams and acquire Hanley Ramirez (I mentioned a three-way trade involving Oakland, St. Louis, and Miami earlier in the thread), and not lose too much ground. Especially considering Milwaukee will lose Fielder, that’s not an awful idea.
They'd have to give up Miller and possibly Martinez for Hanley. I'm not sure they're up for that.
I’d think they’ll look at Fielder first
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 8:33 AM PST up reply actions
I doubt they'd have to give up both, let alone Miller.
For two consecutive years, Hanley’s dealt with “character” issues—being benched for not hustling, showing up late, shit like that—and last year he also had surgery on his left shoulder. He also had a terrible year. He’s also due $15M, $15.5M, and $16M over the next three years, so he’s not as great a bargain as he has been in the past. I don’t think his value is as high as some people think.
Considering he's better than 90% of other team's shortstops
I’d say his value is pretty damn high, down year or not…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 8, 2011 10:25 AM PST up reply actions
He might not be, though.
There are eight shortstops that posted fWAR of higher than 4.0 last season. He’s not heads and tails above the rest of the class like he was a couple years ago. And like I said, he’s coming off surgery.
Apparantly Melissa Lockard
is saying she has heard from a source that Bailey could be on his way to LAA for Trumbo + prospects??
https://twitter.com/#!/oakclubhouse/status/144809335061626880
Not sure how much inside info she has
but its spreading like wildfire on the Twit right now.
God, I hope not.
That rug really tied the room together...
by Streams Of Whiskey on Dec 8, 2011 8:30 AM PST up reply actions
Slusser just refuted it here:
I just spoke to an #Angels source who isn’t hearing Trumbo to #Athletics at all, and said they might not pursue Bailey right now.
Bring back Hammer.
Ok good
I wasn’t overly excited about this. If he could play OF, and take a few more walks, that would be one thing.
He can play 3B supposedly, but somehow couldn't beat out Alberto Callaspo
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 8:35 AM PST up reply actions
Losing a starting position competition judged by Mike Scioscia isn't necessarily an indication of anything, however (q.v. Mathis/Napoli)
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
I want to see Vernon Wells keep Trout in the minors
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 9:12 AM PST up reply actions
Did they decide to send him down?
He spent the rest of the season with the slegnA once they brought him up.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Where would he play though? They've got Bourjos, Hunter and Wells
They still have Abreu, Morales and Trumbo for DH. I think the only way Trout makes the team is if they send back Bourjos for getting off to a crappy start. Would they really keep him as a reserve?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 9:22 AM PST up reply actions
The team makes some odd decisions
I think he was clearly rushed — they had a rash of injuries IIRC so having him fill in made sense, but he’s 19, he had a lot of trouble hitting in the majors, and he probably could have used some time in AAA. But that doesn’t mean the slegnA will do that.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
SWEET WE NEED MOAR 1B!
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
We could move Barton to C and Trumbo to 3B
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 8:32 AM PST up reply actions
idea!
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Do not want Trumbo...
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 8, 2011 10:26 AM PST up reply actions
Yo trumbo, tú trumbas, él/ella/usted trumba.
Nosotros trumbamos, vosotros trumbáis, ellos/ustedes trumban.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
hmm...I might take him in exchange for Bailey. Although I would HATE to see Bailey closing against us.
I still can’t stand to see Haren in an Angels uni…
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 8, 2011 12:29 PM PST up reply actions
any time you have a chance to trade your all star closer for a 1B with a sub .300 OBP....
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Yeah, but just think of the upside!
We know Bailey isn’t going to get any better. ☺
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
I should have said as a piece of another deal.
He’ll improve, he was just a rookie last year. He showed some pretty good qualities.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 8, 2011 12:44 PM PST up reply actions
OK let me put it this way
if the return on one of the 3 best trade chips is going to be Mark Trumbo, I dont’ want any part of it.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
This
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 8, 2011 5:24 PM PST up reply actions
Could you have hated them any more than you did before?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 8:38 AM PST up reply actions
But now they're turning into Yankees West
That’s worse.
Yes, I want the A's to be Yankees West
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 8:43 AM PST up reply actions
I didn't think so, but that's what I'm feeling now
I hate me some Angels…
"I was right and you were wrong." - Ray Fosse
CJ wilson on the rangers was at least somewhat cancelled out by love of Wash
Now, pure unadulterated hatred.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 8, 2011 10:11 AM PST up reply actions
How insane is the Angels' payroll?
With the Wells contract, weren’t they expected to be maxed out? And now they just added something like $40,000,000 to the payroll just for next year alone?
"I think what baseball projects, and what classical music needs, is the sense that one goes to a live event not to experience greatness, but to experience the possibility of greatness.... Not every game is great but what we go for is the chance that this particular game might be.' —David Lang
Maybe Moreno's expecting that massive inflation will make the US dollar worthless soon
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 8:43 AM PST up reply actions
He's gonna raise beer prices.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Pujols and Wilson are sure to be booed roundly then
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 8:56 AM PST up reply actions
IK, R? wasn’t THIS what the wells laugher was supposed to save us from?
by AV on Dec 8, 2011 9:57 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah, it's gonna be outrageous
Wow, bravo to Cot’s for already updating this info.
Link
So, let’s take a quick look, shall we?
Pujols: $25M
Wells: $21M
Hunter: $18M
Wilson: $15M
Weaver: $14M
Santana: $11M
Haren: $13M
Abreu: $9M
That’s $126M for 8 players! That’s insane. Then factor in arbitration raises for Kendrick, Callaspo and their other contracts, their payroll is way over $150M.
And the only guy they’re losing next offseason in Hunter, so it’s still gonna be around there next year.
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 8, 2011 10:33 AM PST up reply actions
Just this year, though.
There’s gonna be a lot of Pu-jerseys under Xmas trees in SoCal this year. But you can only buy so many of those for one person, right?
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Dec 8, 2011 11:30 AM PST up reply actions
He'd have to sell 250,000 jerseys at $100/pop
or some equivalent of cheaper merchandise…seems crazy.
But their season ticket sales reps are probably really busy right now. I’m sure that revenues in some way will offset this for a little while.
The main thing (obviously) is this gets them a lot closer to the world series title…
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 8, 2011 12:42 PM PST up reply actions
He'd have to sell more than that
Probably at least twice that, considering it costs you more than $0 to make a jersey…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 8, 2011 5:25 PM PST up reply actions
yeah I was just trying to keep it simple.
Assuming a $50 profit on each jersey then 500,000. $75 profit, 375,000.
Any way you slice it, a shitload.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 8, 2011 5:47 PM PST up reply actions
oh yeah
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 8, 2011 6:08 PM PST up reply actions
Immediate reaction to the Angels' moves
Okay, fine.
Trade everyone. The A’s aren’t going to be competing for years, and aren’t even trying to do so at the moment. So let’s suck, hard, and hope for some high draft picks in the next few years.
The A’s won’t be finishing higher than third in a long while anyway, and that’s not the team’s goal.
I hope Beane trades wisely, but I can’t sustain much interest in all of this. The Angels are now Yankees West, which is particularly loathsome. The Rangers are much better than the A’s have a chance of being even if the team was trying to be good. The A’s are just a boring, second-division team, and nothing is going to happen until the team moves out of Oakland.
It’s hard to get revved up about a process that deliberately doesn’t include your team as anything but a seller of relatively young big league talent.
by bear88 on Dec 8, 2011 8:45 AM PST reply actions 2 recs
I'm in total shock
For the first time in years I don’t have that “well MAYBE we can get lucky this year” feeling. sadness.
I’m going to put Major League I and II in my netflix gueue.
jaggin around
Eh, the maybe-we-get-lucky is still there.
Every year some guys who were supposed to be good suck, and some guys who were supposed to suck are good.
Wishing for Chris Carter to miraculously become awesome is more fun than wishing for the A’s to miraculously sign Pujols … and no less implausible.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Don't bother.
I’m afraid I already pushed him off the ledge. He was blocking my spot.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
by alox on Dec 8, 2011 8:48 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Angels Bandwagon
Is going to implode with these signings. Young OC girls for CJ Wilson. Movie Stars for Albert. Could the Angels get any more annoying???
CJ Wilson is a prick of the highest order, so no doubt he has a ton of girls after him.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
He's a handsome devil, too.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
One thought on Pujols
Signing 32-year-old players to really long-term deals is a lot riskier now than it used to be.
I would happily pay Pujols $25 million a year for the next five years. But after that, he’s unlikely to be a particularly special player, because baseball does seem determined – in its way – to bring back the effects of the aging process on even the best players. That doesn’t help the A’s during those next five years, of course.
OK
I’ll be back in 2016…
Somthing to think about: Don’t underestimate the power of technology in the drug world. What form of “cream” will be available in from 2017-2021?
This is the new moneyball (and always was the old moneyball)
We just gotta roid up everyone and go for it.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 8, 2011 10:13 AM PST up reply actions
Any change at all that Beane is playing liars poker?
Perhaps shopping promising players to put pressure on the other owners to approve the move to SJ? In other words, if you don’t let us make the move, you’re going to be paying us to suck for a very long time.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
How is that a lie?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 8:56 AM PST up reply actions
"chance"....
cold fingers.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
Well on to the good news of today...
Bauer came up in discussion for CAHILL according to Buster Olney (could be pulling out of his ass but I’ll take the glimmer of hope)
Also, Twins, Rockies and Indians are interested in Willingham… how does the compensation for Willingham work again?
Is Bauer any better than Cahill?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 8:59 AM PST up reply actions
What makes you so sure?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 9:00 AM PST up reply actions
Alright good question:
First of all, Bauer was the best pitching prospect in a loaded draft for pitching in my opinion. 203/36 K/BB ratio in 136 innings. Struck out 43 in 25 innings between high A and Double A.
Cahill is a guy who may or may not consistently produce at a level I think Bauer will get to. Bauer is just a better prospect with more strikeouts and better control.
Well if you like him that much then I can see your viewpoint.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 9:08 AM PST up reply actions
As far as I'm concerned, Bauer is the holy grail of pitching prospects in the minors right now.
His numbers at UCLA were absolutely insane, and in his brief sample size in A+ and AA last year, he had a 43/12 K/BB ratio in just 25.2 innings. As a 20 year old.
"I think what baseball projects, and what classical music needs, is the sense that one goes to a live event not to experience greatness, but to experience the possibility of greatness.... Not every game is great but what we go for is the chance that this particular game might be.' —David Lang
My point exactly...
that’s why this rumor has to be BS unfortunately… or maybe Billy asked and they hung up the phone
OK, rank the following as prospects when they were in the minors
Trevor Bauer
Julio Teheran
Neftali Feliz
David Price
Tommy Hanson
Clayton Kershaw
Stephen Strasburg
Danny Hultzen
Dylan Bundy
Gerrit Cole
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 9:12 AM PST up reply actions
I would but I got finals to study for...
If I had to rank players in front of Bauer they would be 1 player: Kershaw (lefty) (hindsight haha), but I wouldn’t any of the other in front of him. Strasburgh was always viewed as an injury risk biomechanically, other players have control issues which is a red flag for me
Also as I already said...
I think the best draft prospect was Bauer over Cole and Hultzen
Oooh, I like doing this sort of thing.
Strasburg
Hanson
Kershaw
Price
Bauer
Feliz
Teheran
Hultzen
Cole
Bundy
"I think what baseball projects, and what classical music needs, is the sense that one goes to a live event not to experience greatness, but to experience the possibility of greatness.... Not every game is great but what we go for is the chance that this particular game might be.' —David Lang
Not a fan of "Married With Children," eh?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
We should shop Anderson too. Y'know while we're in the process of decimating our rotation.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
I'm sure we will later in the year
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 9:01 AM PST up reply actions
Why? They get to watch the A's 81 times per year. I wish I could have one
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 9:03 AM PST up reply actions
You'd want to watch this A's team 81 times a year?
You’re a glutton for punishment.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
I prefer to administer punishment
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 9:06 AM PST up reply actions
you know, it'll still be fun to go to games.
Although I think my heckling will get even more of a mean streak.
The bitter old man in me will come out.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 8, 2011 10:18 AM PST up reply actions
This could be another haul from the D'Backs system
Please let this happen.
Deal Cahill and give Gio a long term extension…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 8, 2011 10:36 AM PST up reply actions
I'm hoping the Cubs sign Fielder
Because I’m going to be watching the Cubs at this rate for the next few years till SJ…
Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.
I don't think they're one player away from contending though
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 9:05 AM PST up reply actions
Well, when you live a couple hundred yards from the stadium
its easy to get to games
Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.
Yes that is awesome for sure.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 8, 2011 9:24 AM PST up reply actions
WTF A's might bid on Darvish?
Well, personally, I WANT them to get Darvish, even though he will cost a fortune.
Why?
Because I can see Darvish being a huge revenue generator.
Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.
Yep.
Darvish has a lot of value, and the A’s need players who have a lot of value. If they only give up money to get it, it’s going to to help the team.
"I think what baseball projects, and what classical music needs, is the sense that one goes to a live event not to experience greatness, but to experience the possibility of greatness.... Not every game is great but what we go for is the chance that this particular game might be.' —David Lang
Think about it
If the A’s somehow got Darvish, and then open the season in Japan with Darvish? Dude, they’d have an instant cult following, and the whole story line of Darvish vs Ichiro would be… epic.
Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.
Agreed.
The other interesting thing is that reading the mlbtraderumors story carefully, it seems that there are actually only three teams likely to submit a bid: A’s, Blue Jays, Yankees.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/rangers-jays-yankees-expected-to-bid-on-darvish.html
"I think what baseball projects, and what classical music needs, is the sense that one goes to a live event not to experience greatness, but to experience the possibility of greatness.... Not every game is great but what we go for is the chance that this particular game might be.' —David Lang
Well, actually I wouldn't say that the story suggest the A's are likely to bid...
"I think what baseball projects, and what classical music needs, is the sense that one goes to a live event not to experience greatness, but to experience the possibility of greatness.... Not every game is great but what we go for is the chance that this particular game might be.' —David Lang
Maybe we're going to do the
ridiculous-overbid-so-that-no-one-else-can-get-him-either trick again?
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
(for those interested, the speculation came from Slusser's convo with Forst)
Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.
Plus we would get to work with Nomura again!
yayyyyyy!!!!!
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 8, 2011 10:36 AM PST up reply actions
All of this talk about Gio as a potential #1 or #2 blows my mind
This is getting ridiculous, don’t you think?
B-R best comparables to Gio Gonzalez through age-25:
- Randy Wolf
- Darryl Kile
- Ernie Broglio
- George Van Haltren
- Scott Bankhead
- Vinegar Bend Mizell
- Joe Sparma
- Shawn Estes
- Jack Morris
- Odalis Perez
Lot of #1/#2’s on that list, huh? Well, unless you think Gio’s gonna throw 293 innings in a year like Morris or 253 innings like Kile, I guess.
He’s a short lefty who throws super hard and walks a ton of batters while feasting off a beautiful pitcher’s park. Looks like more of a #3/fringe-#2 to me, with the potential for serious collapse. Gio Gonzalez led the league in walks last year. He’s hardly a “safe” asset going forward, which is exactly why Billy Beane is trying to get value for him now.
As a fun little exercise, go compare Gio Gonzalez’s age-25 season with Oliver Perez’s age-25 season. You know what, no, I’ll do it for you!
Gio Gonzalez 2011 – 32 GS, 202 IP, 3.12 ERA, 130 ERA+, 197:91 K:BB, 17 HR, 8.8 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 7.8 H/9.
Oliver Perez 2007 – 29 GS, 177 IP, 3.56 ERA, 121 ERA+, 174:79 K:BB, 22 HR, 8.8 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 7.8 H/9.
Pretty haunting, isn’t it? Now, yes, Gio Gonzalez is far better at inducing ground balls than Ollie ever was. Gio’s GB% in ‘11 was 47.5%, while Perez’s was 32.8% in ‘07. However, my main point is that if you’re going to call Gio “a potential #1/#2”, you have to realize that that’s a dream scenario with maybe a 5% chance of happening. More likely than that, and mysteriously hasn’t been considered, is that Gio’s control problems don’t age gracefully – because, let’s face it, few pitchers with control problems age gracefully – and he completely busts, never performing up to his 2011 standards.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 12:51 PM PST reply actions
Why the hell is a Dbacks fan coming here to try and talk down Gios value?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Because an A's fan just went on the SnakePit and posted
About a possible Bauer/Cowgill/Pollock/Holmberg/Miley for Cahill/Breslow trade (that I wouldn’t accept if we got Gio and Cahill)? Because SBN offers the ability to go from site to site on purpose? Because I want to see if you have any reasons to value him so highly that I don’t know? Discussion? Boredom?
Chill.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 1:11 PM PST up reply actions
I'm perfectly chilled.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Hi, Dan
First off, I’d like to thank you for introducing me to the name Vinegar Bend Mizell. Tis awesome.
Now… who the fuck are you talking to? I know there’s been a lot of comments made on this subject at AN but I really haven’t seen anyone pimping Gio as a #1/#2 SP. Oliver Perez showed a lot of… inconsistency throughout his career, both prior to and after 2007. He never put together back-to-back seasons like Gio has in 2010 and 2011.
Here’s an argument I made on Gio’s trade value elsewhere…
Less than a year ago the Rays traded Matt Garza to the Chicago Cubs along with two non-prospects (Zach Rosscrop and Fernando Perez) for Chris Archer, Hak-Ju Lee, Robinson Chirinos, Sam Fuld and Brandon Guyer.
Or, to put it another way… (BA Cubs Rank/Sickels Grade)
Archer (1/B+)
Lee (4/B)
Guyer (10/B-)
Chirinos (16/C+)
Fuld (NR/NR)
Gio Gonzalez is almost 2 years younger than Garza, has 4 years of team control (vs. the 3 Garza had at the time of the deal) is cheaper and has out-performed Garza according to bWAR ( 9.2 vs. 5.8) and fWAR ( 6.7 vs. 4.7) over the last 2 years vs. Garza’s last 2 seasons in Tampa.
And when you actually look at Gio’s Home/Road splits over the past two seasons you see that his X-FIP, K/9, BB/9 and similair stats are almost identical.
You want to come over here and talk tough? OK.
Next time bring something to the table to back it up.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Glad to help
The olden days were great days.
As for your next point: anybody saying they even reasonably expect a possible Haren package for Gio? Seems like the implication is that Gio is of similar caliber to Haren. I guess it sounded like I was venting on your site because of your site, but it’s mostly the absurdity of the rumor mill (and a horrifying fear that Arizona actually makes a trade like that). I really didn’t mean to offend anybody, I’m just bored, done with my final exam today, and have found that Twitter isn’t keeping up with me.
That aside, comparing Gio to Garza doesn’t hold up to me. Garza hasn’t walked over four batters per nine innings since 2006 with the Twins. Gio hasn’t walked under four batters per nine innings… ever. Their levels of volatility are incredibly different because they’re completely different kinds of pitchers. I’ll take the guy whose control seems to be under control vs. the guy with the stuff but varying levels of an idea of where it’s going. Further, the Garza trade was kind of terrible for Chicago (even though they lucked out on it with his 5-fWAR year) to begin with, but I guess the market can repeat it’s mistakes, with how imperfect it is. Finally, though, Garza was facing a level of competition that was dramatically superior to what Gio has faced, which obviously impacts peripheral rates and FIP.
Perhaps most importantly, Garza had shown an established career tendency to out-perform his peripherals prior to his trade (and had well-established levels of production, period). Gonzalez has only shown that over the last two years (and only been good for two years), and his career averages in ERA/FIP/xFIP are all very close together. If you think Gio’s anything more than a #3, you have to buy into the trend from the last two years being true and all of the trends from the previous data being false. Again, it’s just a lot more risky.
Finally, Oakland is hardly the only pitcher-friendly stadium in that division (Anaheim and Seattle both big, with Texas really the only one that isn’t). He gets help in a lot of places, although admittedly having the likes of Chris Carter patrolling the outfield is something he’s weathered, which is impressive.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 1:35 PM PST up reply actions
Huh?
Chris Carter has played TWENTY TWO games in the outfield for Oakland.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
I know?
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 2:09 PM PST up reply actions
It's just a factor that would inflate his ERA relative to his FIP
It’s clearly a small one, based on the season he just had, but it is one.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 2:10 PM PST up reply actions
I can appreciate a reasoned argument
I’m even inclined to agree with your concern over Gio’s BB/9 numbers. However, in his defence, he’s also struck out more batter per 9 than Garza has. The numbers are the numbers, Dan. I didn’t make them up. You may feel that the Garza trade was a Chicago overpay… but by 2 different variances of WAR Gio Gonzalez was a better SP than Garza at the time of that deal. You complain about Gio only having two good seasons… they’re also the only two full seasons he’s pitched.
Haren is/was a better pitcher than either Gio or Cahill. However, both of the current A’s offer more control to their potential new teams than Haren did, giving them a modest boost in value. You should also keep in mind that the A’s FO (and Oakland-centric press) can paint an easily descriptive picture by saying they’re trying for a “Haren-like deal”. Saying the a’s are trying to find a “Matt Garza-like deal” doesn’t afford the same frame of reference to Oakland fans.
So while I agree that “Haren-like deal” is misplaced, I feel that using the Garza trade as a frame of reference is valid. And looking at your farm system (vis Sickels) the D’backs don’t have the capital to aquire either Cahill or Gio with including one of your Big 4.
The monster at the end of this blog.
and that one needs to be Bauer.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
I wouldn't trade Bauer for Gio straight-up.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 2:19 PM PST up reply actions
I get that the numbers show he was better than Garza pre-trade
But post-trade, I’d be more worried about acquiring Gonzalez than acquiring Garza. Gio has only pitched two full seasons because he was bad enough before then that he wasn’t allowed to pitch any other full seasons. He doesn’t have the established track record of success Garza had. His pitching style lends itself to higher risk of complete combustion than Garza.
Finally, of course, the difference between an A- and B+ prospect is greater than the difference between a B+ and B prospect, etc., as per Victor Wang’s research. So even if we’re using the Garza trade model, B+, B, B-, C+, C < A/A-, collection of B-‘s and C+’s. I still believe that Matt Davidson is being underrated and is a straight B guy (I’d also have Chafin lower, but he can’t be dealt yet so it’s irrelevant), but that’s obviously just my opinion. I also think a deal could involve someone like Gerardo Parra or Josh Collmenter, but it seems that Oakland has little interest in players who have lost prospect status.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 2:19 PM PST up reply actions
Gio first pitched full seasons in his age 24 and 25 seasons.
Garza first pitched full seasons in…. his age 24 and 25 seasons.
So what established track record are you talking about, exactly?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
The one Garza had before he was traded to the Cubs last year?
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 2:30 PM PST up reply actions
You are so confusing.
Gio, age 23: 98 IP, 1.1 WAR. Garza, age 23: 83 IP, 1.4 WAR
Gio, age 24: 200 IP, 3.2 WAR. Garza, age 24: 184 IP, 2.9 WAR
Gio, age 25: 200 IP, 3.5 WAR. Garza, age 25: 200 IP, 3.1 WAR
So what you are saying is that Garza’s age 26 season in which he had 200 IP and 1.6 WAR is what makes him “established” even though Gio outperformed him and has not pitched his age 26 season yet.
I mean, saying Gio “wasn’t good enough” to pitch before he was 23? Neither was Garza.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Here's what I'm saying:
Garza pre-trade: 725.1 IP, 107 ERA+
Gio now: 535.1 IP, 106 ERA+
Garza had three sub-4 ERA figures in four straight seasons, with just one of them seeing him work less than 180 innings. Gio has sub-4 ERA figures in just two straight seasons. What I’m trying to say isn’t all that complex. When the Cubs acquired Garza, they had a solid idea of his floor. Does anybody have a solid idea of Gonzalez’s floor for the next couple of years? Because his control could go way awry like so many pitchers of his type, whereas Garza has always has solid control figures.
Also, Garza had a 3.69 ERA in his age-23 season. Gio most certainly did not.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 2:55 PM PST up reply actions
The difference for me is the innings
And the long-term track record of success across four seasons.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 2:55 PM PST up reply actions
Ok, so if Gio has a 1.5 WAR season this year, then he's got an established track record like Garza.
got it.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
The thing I don't understand
is where you’re getting this information that says BB/9 ratios for pitchers with bad BB/9 are more likely to get worse than better AND that this is also more likely than bad K/9 ratios getting worse or HR/9 ratios getting worse, etc.
This is all based on the assumption that pitchers who walk more batters are more volatile than pitchers of similar quality who achieve their value in a different way. Which is an interesting hypothesis, but until I see some evidence for it, I have no reason to believe it.
"I think what baseball projects, and what classical music needs, is the sense that one goes to a live event not to experience greatness, but to experience the possibility of greatness.... Not every game is great but what we go for is the chance that this particular game might be.' —David Lang
Good idea
Let’s see what we come up with. Pitchers with high ERA+ figures and similarly-high walk rates from ages 24-25 (all pitchers to come up in the search are included, just to make sure I’m not cherrypicking):
Totally going to make a SnakePit post out of this sometime….
First ring of comparables, min 3.8 BB/9, min 125 ERA+
- Carlos Zambrano: ERA+ dropped below 120 for each of the age-26 through age-28 seasons after being above 130 at both age-24 and age-25 (better than Gio). Good age-29 year, now awful.
- Ubaldo Jimenez: Good at age-24 and age-25, elite at age-26, crap at age-27. Inconclusive, though, because age-27 was, of course, this year.
- Juan Guzman: So-so at age-26, awful at ages 27 and 28, elite at age 29, crap at 30, “meh” at 31, good at 32, gone from the game.
Second ring of comparables: min BB/9 3.6, min ERA+ 120
- Jim Maloney: Had just two more great years, at age-26 and age-29. Solid at 27, awful at 28. Also a product of a different era (pitched mostly in the ‘60s), and there’s a strong argument to be made that this case is all but irrelevant.
- Richard Dotson: ERA never sank below 4 again despite it being below 3.6 at both age-24 and age-25. ERA+ never rose above 111 again, despite it being higher than that 111 figure at both age-24 and age-25.
- Jose Rijo: Here’s your pro-Gio case. Rijo kicked ass over the next four years (# of years of control remaining for Gonzalez), with a 149 ERA+ in 845 innings. Granted, his 2.75 ERA and 141 ERA+ combined between ages 24 and 25 were superior to Gio in the first place, but he maintained his performance. Point for the pro-walking-people-and-still-being-successful folks.
Third ring of comparables: min BB/9 of 3.4, min ERA+ of 115.
- Kerry Wood: Tee-hee. He was getting torched by age-28, but for obvious, unrelated, and useless-for-this-comparison reasons.
- Mark Gubicza: He’d fallen into the abyss of awfulness by age-27. Seems like injuries may have been at play? Was brutally-worked.
- Kris Benson: Yeeeeeeeeeah….
- Tom Brewer: ERA+ figures were more mid-rotation guy than TOR guy, pitched during the 50’s, didn’t sustain peak of age-24 season. Still, a pretty dismiss-able example.
- Wilson Alvarez: Alvarez’s peak was more 23-24 than 24-25 (of course, he still made the list because of his age-24/25 stats), and he only posted an ERA below four once after his age-25 season. Was more of a fringe-#3.
- Clay Buchholz: Weird comparison. ’10 was obviously far beyond levels of Gonzalez, ’11 was obvious regression. Also, only has pitched through age-26 season, so hard to draw anything here.
The only guy that really figured it out among this wild group after that age-24/25 peak was Rijo. Sure, a lot of the examples here are awful comparisons, but it’s not a crazy hypothesis.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 6:56 PM PST up reply actions
4.68 ERA, 92 ERA+ in 2011?
That was pretty crappy.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 7:44 PM PST up reply actions
What about CJ Wilson?
He’s a very good comp with Gio in that they were fighting for the league lead in BBs last year and are both power lefties who are hard to hit but can get wild.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Wilson had one year as a starter
With a BB/9 over 4. It was below 3 this year. Wilson figured out his issues far quicker than Gonzalez, who, well, hasn’t actually figured them out yet.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 9, 2011 12:05 PM PST up reply actions
Finally getting his BB/9 below 3.9 at the age of 30, in his 7th ML season
was “figur[ing] out his issues quicker” than Gio? How exactly does that work?
Now look, their track records haven’t been identical: Wilson had better BB numbers in the minors than Gio, and he also spent his first 5 seasons in the bullpen, and after a couple years as a reliever with BB/9 of 3.4 and 3.7 his control worsened. In fact, his age 26-29 seasons were:
4.3
5.2
3.9
and, in his first season as a starter, 4.1
And then, at the age of 30, in his 7th Major League season, he got his BB/9 down to 3.0.
So Wilson is a really good example of a lefty with control problems who has “aged gracefully”.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Second year as a starter?
Can we at least try to compare apples to apples?
Here’s another way to put it: in seven big-league seasons, C.J. Wilson has had a BB/9 greater than 4 just three times; Gio Gonzalez has yet to post a BB/9 less than four. Does it really make that much of a difference?
If it does, fine, but then there really shouldn’t be a comparison at all here because Wilson didn’t start at the ages Gio has started at in the big leagues. Their track records aren’t just “not identical,” they’re completely different.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 9, 2011 1:11 PM PST up reply actions
I agree they're different
There’s not much point in quibbling over what “quicker” means, but he spent 3 years as a reliever with bad control, then switched to starting and led the league in BBs, then finally at 30 got his act together. At least for a year. Maybe the BBs will reappear next season. Who knows?
2nd year as a starter isn’t apples-to-apples in this case, either, Dan. Not when for Gio that was as a 24 or 25 year old, and for Wilson as a 30 year old.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Of course it's not apples-to-apples
It’s why I didn’t bring up Wilson in the first place and why I would have never thought to compare them without it being suggested to me. I’m just trying to find the best way to correlate the two of them since that was basically what was asked of me.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 9, 2011 1:43 PM PST up reply actions
FWIW, the pitcher Gio most reminds me of is Sid Fernandez
I’m a little surprised he’s not on Gio’s comp list.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Fernandez's BB/9
Were significantly lower. 3.9 at age-24, 3.4 age age-25. Fernandez-lite, maybe, but that “lite” is a very volatile one.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 9, 2011 1:49 PM PST up reply actions
He had a one year head start, it's true
but he pitched in the NL, and during a good period for pitching, which might have made it easier to get him to throw the ball over the damn plate. When I say Gio reminds me of El Sid, I mean stylistically, as a pitcher — throws a bit across his body, 3/4 arm delivery. Both with excellent curveballs. Gio actually throws harder than Sid did, but Sid had a very deceptive delivery that hitters had a tough time with.
Oh, and the reason LA got rid of Sid originally was that he had absolutely no idea where the ball was going when he was in the minors.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Oh, and Gio's BB/9 at age 24 was 4.1, which is not significantly higher than SF's 3.9 at the same age
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
You're knocking Gio for not being big league ready his age 22 season?
The A’s called him up for good in June of his age 23 season.
Matt Garza only made 10 appearances when he was 22. He also only pitched a partial season when he was 23. Matt Garza was older when he got traded by Tampa to Chicago… it’s an unusual move to penalize Gio for being younger. That’s an attribute that tends to make a player MORE valuable in a trade scenario.
The difference between an A- vs B+ prospect might be greater… but AZ doesn’t have any B grade prospects. You think Davidson is underrated? Take it up with Sickels! We’re all referencing the same grading system and we could all bitch about a couple grades. Davidson is a B- and I think he ends up at 1B or a COF. AZ has 2 available A- prospects and 7 B- guys. There is no reason why Oakland should have to settle for a bulk package of B- prospects. It’s unrealistic.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I'm not penalizing Gio for being younger
I’m penalizing him compared to Garza for being more risky. That doesn’t seem so egregious, does it?
And fine, Arizona’s only grade B is Chafin. If you don’t want to include Parra or the the like to get creative, that’s fine, but in no way does that mean that one of the Bauer, Archie, Skaggs, Parker group is any less unrealistic.
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by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 4:46 PM PST up reply actions
Tell that to your gm and front office
Who have been discussing a cahill trade for over a week. A’s arent forced to trade cahill or gio, its teams approaching them. In gio’s case at least 10-12 showing varying amounts of interest despite being more risky as you say.
Whether you are worried about giving up one of your super duper epic 4 top pitching prospects, it doesnt matter because that’s the high price A’s have required from other teams by demanding a montero, alonso, turner, martin perez, etc.
Get real if you think a cahill or gio will be traded for a bunch of B-/C+ prospects
Of course teams are interested
The rest of the market sucks and everyone’s looking for options. Hiroki Kuroda’s super old and might be hard to reel in, while Joe Saunders is flat-out horrible. Oakland can demand whatever they want, and they should, but that doesn’t made any of the demands reasonable.
Gio certainly won’t be moved for B-/C+ guys, but it doesn’t seem egregious for Cahill if you ask me. His 2011 was rather unspectacular, and the peripherals indicate that that’s his real level of talent. He’s a #3 starter who gets grounders and pitches to contact – certainly useful, but why trade elite prospect talent for a non-elite pitcher? I think he’s probably safer than Gonzalez, but he’s also not someone who will anchor a rotation. He’s an innings-chewer in the middle of a rotation who’ll put up a 4-ish ERA year-to-year.
You can disagree all you want, but I think the same “get real” attitude can be applied if you think you’re going to get Bauer or Skaggs plus three or four other prospects for either of these guys (even if you throw in the super-valuable Breslow as you did on the SnakePit). There’s a reason the near-unanimous reaction to that offer was negative. There probably isn’t a match unless someone who already has some big-league experience – like Parra or Collmenter – gets tossed in. Someone more valuable than the depth prospect tier for Arizona and someone less valuable than the Bauer, Archie, Skaggs, Parker group.
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by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 6:24 PM PST up reply actions
According to the research you link
Getting Gio w/o parting with Parker or Skaggs is ridiculous.
The monster at the end of this blog.
And I argue that he should be attainable w/ the rest of AZ's farm where?
Perhaps when I said this:
Gio certainly won’t be moved for B-/C+ guys
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by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 7:16 PM PST up reply actions
But your stance from the beginning has been...
No Parker, no Skaggs for either A’s pitcher. Moreover, you’ve said that for the A’s to demand either arm would be unreasonable.
Which does not jive with the numbers.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Because I think it is.
Arizona has three elite pitching prospects who are knocking on the door of the major leagues. We also have a slew of back-end guys like Miley (who had a nifty 4.15 ERA as a starter in 2011), Corbin, and Brewer to help. We ought to be able to expect at least one of them to produce significant innings in 2012, no? Add Kennedy, Hudson, and Collmenter to the mix, alongside that mix of prospects, and I don’t think it’s egregious to expect one guy from the three big names to perform up to the level of Gonzalez – even if they all combine to eventually have less value than three Gonzalez’s would – and one guy from the lesser names to be a worthwhile back-end innings eater. So giving up one of those three guys diminishes the chances of getting that production for minimum salary and instead paying $4MM for a pitcher who we should expect to be fairly volatile. It’s not that it’s unreasonable in general terms, it’s kind of unreasonable considering that Arizona is already incredibly likely to replicate Gonzalez’s performance (the 4.2-4.3ish ERA ZiPS projects) with what it already has, so why move what it has to get Gonzalez?
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by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 7:29 PM PST up reply actions
Well.. you're wrong
Now if you don’t want the Diamondbacks to give up one of your elite prospects to acquire Gio or Cahill that’s fine. You don’t like that idea. It’s an emotional argument but an honest expression of opinion. I won’t try to change your mind.
But the numbers say that a deal would require AZ to give up one of their best and brightest. The facts support one of Skaggs or Parker coming to the A’s for either Oakland SP.
The monster at the end of this blog.
The facts?
No, your projections do. And that’s fine. But calling them facts is blatantly untrue.
Projections with statistical modeling and projections with historical examples each offer different outlooks. Both outlooks need to be considered, and I agree with your outlook from a pure numbers perspective. But history shouldn’t be ignored.
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by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 8:18 PM PST up reply actions
Your historical outlook cherry picks examples from the last 50 years
9 guys from 5 decades? Pretty certain that’s not a relevant sample size.
My projections are, if anything, pro-AZ. Facts the wrong word? OK… we’ll use data.
The data says the only way a fair trade could be made is if one of Skaggs or Parker came to Oakland.
Now, I’ve been to the Snake Pit and I’ve seen the crap people have been posting about how little AZ should have to give up to acquire one of the A’s pitchers. I don’t go over there and raise a ruckus… even though I got the data on my side… because I don’t feel like being rude. If you want to discuss what a reasonable trade package would look like for one of the A’s cheap young arm’s then I’d be more than willing to have that talk with you.
Hell, you want to come over and say you hope a deal doesn’t work out because you don’t want to lose any of your top prospects then that’s cool too!
But to come over here with an attitude and take potshots at our guys? Players we as fans have an affinity to and would kinda like to see stick around and maybe win some freakin’ games for us?! Not cool.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Cherry picking?
I’m pretty sure cherry picking involves actively choosing a particular guy or two with only subjective connections, not using a freaking B-R Play Index search to find comparables using completely reasonable bounds that coincide with your hypothesis.
I know some of the SnakePit offers are egregious.
I admitted that my initial post was perhaps a bit rash and might have had an over-aggressive tone. But spare me the “potshots” stuff, please? I haven’t said anything like “Gio totally sucks and why anybody would want him on their team is beyond me!” I’ve tried to develop a reasonable sense of what he’s capable of doing. I’d hardly call that insulting, but who knows, I could be wrong – I have been many times before and will be many times in the future.
And really, when we’ve moved past all of that, I think there’s been some pretty informative discourse, which is exactly what I was hoping for.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 9, 2011 12:11 PM PST up reply actions
Why should we trust the B-Ref comparables list?
I have no idea what it uses to compare. Does it work? What does it use? Does it over/undervalue certain attributes? I have no idea.
Because I set the bounds for the Play Index search
And they’re both included in my comment AND they can be easily looked up by clicking on the links?
Or do you mean the most comparable pitchers through age-25 list? If you want to ignore that, fine, but you still can’t toss out the Play Index searches.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 9, 2011 1:14 PM PST up reply actions
And if my sample isn't good enough for you
Then would you please provide one? Because some historical context is very necessary here rather than just projecting that Gonzalez will age like any other average big-league player. That assumption seems absolutely egregious to me.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 9, 2011 1:15 PM PST up reply actions
The problem you'll have downgrading Cahill is he's got a very team friendly contract
$29 million guaranteed for the next 4 years, even if Cahill does nothing more than maintain his 2.5 WAR seasons means $50 million in production and $21 million in surplus value. Two option years have to be worth $5 million (???) in surplus value apiece, meaning Cahill’s worth $31 million in trade?
The monster at the end of this blog.
But the point of acquiring someone like Cahill for us
Is to front-load our value because we see an opening now. Cahill doesn’t really do that.
I’d give up one of Parker or Skaggs straight-up for Cahill in a heartbeat, and would consider chipping in Corbin or someone like that. But I’d rather stick with the minimum-salary guys if you’re spreading out your value over several years in either case.
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by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 7:31 PM PST up reply actions
It might be a risk and you may not be in favor of it
but the market for Gio Gonzalez is very hot, especially now that Buehrle and Wilson are signed.
Young, all-star, cost-controlled pitchers are not traded very often, there’s no comparable free agent pitcher available, so that alone will drive the price up.
Arizona probably doesn’t want this to be a one-season wonder. They know they need pitching to repeat for the division. The Giants with Pagan and a healthy Buster Posey are better.
The problem is that of those 4 pitchers, how many are even projected to be better than Gonzalez? Better than Cahill? Their ceilings are probably where those two are now (with the exception of Bauer), and then there’s the risk that you have with any prospect that they bust.
Add it all up together, there’s no reason to trade with AZ unless one of the A- guys is involved. As JJ said, with a dozen teams in the mix, no point in settling if you’re the A’s.
The worst outcome is you have these guys pitching for the A’s in 2012, which isn’t really that bad of an outcome.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 8, 2011 5:54 PM PST up reply actions
I don't want to repeat myself
But the market is “hot” because teams are looking for alternatives. As far as I can tell, people are gauging the cost because the free agent options are so miserable. Doesn’t mean that someone is inevitably going to overpay.
Giants with Pagan and Buster Posey are better? Torres > Pagan IMO, and Beltran is replaced by the wonderful Melky Cabrera. With Barry Zito now a permanent rotation fixture, Aubrey Huff an everyday player because Bochy sez, Crawford at shortstop, and Brian Wilson getting nothing but older… yeah, the Giants aren’t going to be very good in 2012. They somehow found a way to make their offense worse, primarily by letting Beltran go.
As for ceilings, here’s what BA says:
Archie: “Like fellow 2011 first-rounder Trevor Bauer, Bradley has No. 1-starter potential…”
Skaggs: “Originally projected as a No. 3 starter, Skaggs has revised that outlook and now looks like he can pitch at the front of a rotation.”
Parker: “He’s yet another Diamondbacks pitching prospect with frontline potential.”
So…. all of them at least equal to Gonzalez in upside and better than Cahill?
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by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 6:32 PM PST up reply actions
Trevor Cahill turns 24 prior to the start of next season
Gio Gonzalez improved after his age 23 season, didn’t he? Matt Garza showed improvement. Dan Hudson sure did, didn’t he! So to simply assume that Cahill is as good as he’s going to get seems silly. You want to hold BA’s ceiling projections as Gospel? In 2009 BA said Cahill “could end up as a top-of-the-rotation starter”. ’Course, Oakland called him up about two months after the book was published… and let me tell you, there was some complaining about that on AN!
The monster at the end of this blog.
Not really the question I was answering.
They project to be better than Cahill has been. At least that’s how I interpreted it.
Bottom line is this: when you speed up your timetable, you sacrifice ultimate estimated value to do so. It’s the natural give-and-take. In Arizona’s case, I don’t see why we need to do that when our core pieces (Upton, Kennedy, Hudson, Young, Parra) are locked up for a long time. We aren’t the Brewers about to lose Prince Fielder. It just doesn’t make sense for us to pay that much for him.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 7:13 PM PST up reply actions
You are assuming that Cahill is as good as he gets
Which may be the case… but if you’re going to use BA’s projections for your completely unproven arms then it’s only fair to apply the same source’s projection to Cahill.
The monster at the end of this blog.
When answering a question that was framed that way (at least as I saw it)
Then yes, that’s the assumption I made.
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by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 7:17 PM PST up reply actions
Prospects are risky
Trevor Cahill was a top 10 prospect in baseball a few years ago. Projecting a prospect better than what Cahill offers is damn hard. Prospects are simply too risky to make that proclamation.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
The Hell you aren't
Tampa trade Garza after he spent 3 full seasons with them. Gio hasn’t pitched three full seasons. That means whomever acquires Gio gets to have him longer!
I’ll use Mr. Wang’s research to show you how wrong you are about this whole “value” discussion. Heading into the 2011 season Chris Archer was Sickels’ 22nd best pitching prospect, a $15.9 million value. Lee was his 47th best hitting prospect, a $23.4 million value. Guyer and Chirinos, both over the age of 23, held about $6 million in value. That’s approximately $45 million in “value”.
Per Sickels, the Diamondbacks have 6 B- prospects they could deal. If AZ traded Corbin, Pollock, Davidson, Shaw, Eaton and Holmberg that would equal approximately $31.5 million in “value”. Even if you’re worried about Gio than Garza you’d have a tough time justifying a $13.5 million difference. Gio is younger, left-handed and has 1 more year of service time to his new team. And why would the A’s want a relief pitcher like Bryan Shaw? Take Shaw out of the equation, and using Victor Wang’s research, AZ is faced with an $18-19 million deficit to match the Tampa/Chicago deal.
But yes… you’ve argued that Chicago overpaid for Garza.
So let’s project Gio’s production and cost for the next 4 years. MLBTR projects Gio’s salary at $4.2 million in 2012. Using the traditional 40/60/80 percentage split for arbitration hearings (and a bit o’ math) we can determine that our “arbiter” based Gio’s 2012 salary on a $10.5 million salary. (40% of $10.5 million = $4.2 million). And as I see no reason to assume a full half WAR reduction each year for Gio’s age 26-29 seasons I’m going to drop his production by .25 WAR instead. So after 4 years Gio’s salary has increased from $4.2 to $6.3 to $8.4 to $10.5 million and his production has leveled off to 3.25/3.0/2.75/2.5 WAR. At $5 million a Win, Gio will produce 11.5 Wins or $57.5 million in production. His cost will be $29.4 million. Leaving his new team with $28.1 million in surplus value.
Now, I’ve set the bar as favorable as I can for any non-Oakland team. A fair offer will compensate the A’s for that $28 million in surplus value. I don’t like Shaw and I don’t like Davidson. Flat out don’t like ‘em. I only want 1 of Pollock/Eaton. Now you tell me where you’re going to come up with a fair trade package.
Even if you include Corbin and Holmberg, you’re well short.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I fully realize
That the B-/C+ guys won’t make it work. And when sifting through Gio surplus value calculations, I wound up somewhere in the $24-29MM range, so we’re close. I think our difference relates to whether or not the 40/60/80 model is even half-useful. Heck, this whole ordeal came up because Joe Saunders would make $8.5MM in arbitration if we go that route, which is certainly not 80% of his value. And with Gio’s shiny ERA’s beating out his peripheral values, I think it’s quite possible he gets paid quite handsomely too. My salary scale for him went 4/6.5/9/11.5 (third year should be higher than Saunders, since he’s clearly better), which brings overall salary to $31MM, knocking your surplus value calculation to a more comfortable position within my range. I get how valuable Gio is.
But if we’re going to have someone whose value is spaced out over a long period of time, I’d rather it be a collection of minimum-salary guys with one or two hopefully breaking out than having someone who is more expensive and safer with a diminished group of minimum-salary prospect types. Arizona’s budget is small enough as it is, if we’re going to win on a $70MM budget (with escalating values for guys like Kennedy, Hudson, Parra, Upton, Young, Hernandez, et al), we need wins to be cheaper than $5MM.
Also, on a completely unrelated note, Bryan Shaw is going to be really good. I’d rather have him than Hernandez right now. That’s just me, though. :-)
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by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 7:40 PM PST up reply actions
The 40/60/80 split stays the same
The salary comp is what changes. So instead of $10.5 million you might jump up to a $20 million salary.
I get that you want to go a different route. Again, I’m not trying to convince you that AZ needs to trade for Gio.
But if there IS a discussion on trading for Gio this is the hard data you need to use to make an objective argument. Matt Garza was traded for a talent package equivalent to $45 million in vlaue. Gio has out-pitched Garza over a comparable 2 year stretch. I could easily argue that Gio is worth a similar package, but I’ve even gone as far as cutting his expected surplus value to $28 million. (Cahill’s potentially worth more.) And unless the A’s allow the Diamondbacks to give them enough players to fill out half a minor league roster the only way AZ can offer Oakland a “fair” package is to include one of their blue chip pitching prospects.
Those are the facts… buyer beware.
The monster at the end of this blog.
A worthwhile point
That I just thought of this morning. That Victor Wang research was from 2008… back when wins were generally valued at $4MM a pop on the market. Since we’ve been using $5MM a pop when valuing Gio and Cahill going forward, I think it’s safe to say that those valuations should be adjusted by at least 25%, probably more considering that all we have is surplus value when that 25% mark-up applies to all value contributed. Further, since the arbitration system relies so heavily on historical precedents, I think it’s reasonable to say that arbitration prices won’t rice in accordance to baseball inflation.
Which makes a 25% value mark-up the minimum of what we should be looking at. And holy crap, does that make the Chicago/Garza trade look awful. :-P
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 9, 2011 12:16 PM PST up reply actions
I think comps of Gio and Garza are very fair
Both have great stuff and can dominate, can be maddeningly inconsistent, are often very good, and have been healthy. This actually supports your point some, in that I am describing a “weak #2 / strong #3” more than I am describing a “#1-#2” but I don’t see why it’s that obvious which is the better pitcher of the two.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
But the peripherals
Show two entirely different pitchers. Before 2011, Garza simply didn’t strike people out like his stuff indicated it should. Gonzalez has never had that problem, but he’s had significant control problems, which Garza hasn’t. Completely different styles.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 6:33 PM PST up reply actions
Well, according the comparables I put up above
There’s, what a one-in-nine change he sustains/improves? The Rijo example?
Anything’s possible of course – anybody who would argue otherwise clearly doesn’t follow baseball, and I’ve never come close to insinuating this – but I don’t feel particularly comfortable projecting Gonzalez out as an elite pitcher given the odds.
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by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 7:22 PM PST up reply actions
I vaguely guessed at which of the examples were worth cutting out entirely
And I feel that Rijo is the only real example that suggests Gonzalez could truly improve. Many of the others had good seasons, but were incredibly inconsistent and had significant down years.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 7:45 PM PST up reply actions
Srsly: Vinegar Bend Mizell FTW.
I just looked him up. “Vinegar Bend” is the name of the town place in Alabama where he came from, so they nicknamed him that. He later became a Congressman (from North Carolina) for a few years in the 1970s.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
I've always favored Colonel "Bosco" Snover, but Vinegar Bend Mizell is a good one, too
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
The Gonzalez/Perez comparison is ridiculous
I could go through plenty of starting pitchers in the last 20 years who have had similar age-25 seasons and then fell off a cliff, for one reason of another.
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 8, 2011 5:28 PM PST up reply actions
I'll refer you and the commenter below
To here.
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by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 6:57 PM PST up reply actions
Again, ignoring the fact that Gio Gonzalez posted back-to-back seasons
far superior to anything Oliver Perez ever accomplished.
Pitchers don’t come with guarantees, but you’re screaming that the sky is falling.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Which is why none of the players listed there
Are Oliver Perez.
Of course they don’t, but that doesn’t mean you can ignore the odds and just make a play for upside. I’m just trying to look at the odds here, and Gio’s aren’t exactly phenomenal.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 7:14 PM PST up reply actions
You still deserve a couple knocks for cherry picking Oliver Perez
The monster at the end of this blog.
One example came to mind
And even in the post he was first mentioned, I listed ten other career comparables through age-25 according to B-R.
At no point have I ever had my argument “LOL LOOK AT OLLIE PEREZ!!!” Fine, I found a classic worst-case-scenario with Perez, but I also found a classic best-case-scenario with Rijo.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 7:24 PM PST up reply actions
And that comparables list can change after next season
You came in claiming that Gio had been “feasting” in a pitcher’s park. False.
You bring up Victor Wang’s research and it clearly shows how Arizona would need to use one of their Big 4 to land one of the A’s SP.
You’re argument has been weak from the start.
The monster at the end of this blog.
He's a good pitcher
If I instead say that he’s “benefiting” from being in a pitcher’s park, is that agreeable?
My argument has mostly been that Gio is being overrated. Saying that I wouldn’t trade one of the big 4 is my opinion, and you’ll note that what it would take to acquire Gio is not mentioned once in my initial post of this thread. I feel I’ve established my argument as fairly accurate.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 7:43 PM PST up reply actions
He hasn't benefitted from being in a pitcher's park though
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 8, 2011 8:08 PM PST up reply actions
If you're going by B-R WAR
He is, with that huge ERA split. Also, his in-division road schedule is hardly full of hitter’s havens. He had one game last year at Arlington, with two apiece at Safeco and Angels Stadium. There’s a case to be made that he’s benefiting from several pitcher’s parks, and Arizona’s small confines will be harsher to him.
Again, you and Fangraphs certainly have a case. But it’s not like that’s an objective, indisputable statement.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 8:19 PM PST up reply actions
ERA is not predictive of future performance
That’s one of things we used to beat into the heads of newbies.
(sigh)
I miss those days.
The monster at the end of this blog.
My head still hurts.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
So then why were you the first to bring up B-R WAR?
As a way of valuing Gonzalez when it relies solely on it?
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 9, 2011 12:13 PM PST up reply actions
B-R's pitcher WAR does not rely solely on ERA.
Yes, it takes actual runs allowed as its starting point, rather than FIP like FanGraphs does, but to equate that with relying solely on ERA is ridiculous.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
ERA+, goodness.
I understand what the metric uses.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 9, 2011 2:37 PM PST up reply actions
Oliver Perez is cherry picking, pure and simple.
You’re purposefully picking data to fit your narrative, not the other way around.
I do want to say
That I am sorry for how this was initially introduced. It’d have been a lot more constructive – though it has been in many ways regardless, if you ask me – if I’d have taken a chill pill about seeing the words “trade” and “Bauer” next to each other when that idea is crazy and not been so sarcastic. If I tried to say that there wasn’t some element of baiting here, I’d be a total hypocrite and a pretty huge jackass.
Nonetheless, the baseball discussion part has been (/still is) a blast. :-)
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 9, 2011 1:48 PM PST up reply actions
Seems to be
That it’s going to be Jarrod Parker for Trevor Cahill as the primary part of the move.
Collin Cowgill rumored as going to the A’s, some other parts from Oakland may be going back to Arizona as well.
From Ken Rosenthal:
Sources: #Dbacks close on Cahill. RHP Jarrod Parker, OF Collin Cowgill in play for #Athletics. Could be others coming from A’s. #MLB
From D-backs beat reporter Nick Piecoro:
Hearing talks have advanced between Dbacks-A’s regarding RHP Trevor Cahill. RHP Jarrod Parker thought to be involved.
MLBTR says something like “a prospect,” but MLBTR is criminally unreliable in stuff like this.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 9, 2011 1:57 PM PST up reply actions
MLBTR deserves credit for titling itself honestly.
It deals in “rumors”, and it does that very well. The rumors are frequently out of line with reality, however.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
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