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The A's had a great rotation in 2011, but perhaps greater than anything was the depth. In a season that started out with a rotation of Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Dallas Braden and Brandon McCarthy. Three of those guys faced major injuries that caused them to miss a good chunk of the season (in Braden's case nearly the entire season). Braden was the first to fall and the first call for a replacement went to Tyson Ross. It made sense. Ross, had come off a great spring where he posted an 0.59 ERA over 15 1/3 innings, with a somewhat low 5.9 K/9 and good 2.3 BB/9 and no HRs allowed despite the thin Arizona air. While the sample size was small virtually everyone who saw him agreed that he was tough to leave off the Opening Day roster and also would be seen very shortly in Oakland. Braden's injury opened the door for Ross (though Ross technically was called up when Michael Wuertz went on the DL it was Braden's injury that allowed Ross to move into the rotation).

On April 22nd, Ross made his first start of the year in Seattle in a shaky outing. But over his next four starts he looked great going 26 2/3 innings of 18 K to 5 BB with only a lone dinger ball holding hitters to a .250/.287/.302 slash line while posting a 1.69 ERA. Then on a day game at the then still named Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, he got the start against the Twins, allowed a single to Denard Span, then three pitches into his at-bat against Trevor Plouffe came off the mound with a left oblique strain. Span would eventually score, the A's would lose that game 11-1 earning Ross adding an insult-to-a-literal-injury loss to Ross' 2011 campaign.

Star-divide

Oblique strains are tough injuries for any player, but particularly pitchers. They stick around, really effect mechanics, and the results from the pitchers recovering oftentimes aren't so hot for the remainder of the season. That was certainly the case with Ross. When he finally did return from the DL he was jettisoned to Sacramento to recover and as the likes of Graham Godfrey, Guillermo Moscoso and Josh Outman made starts in Oakland he was with the River Cats where he would stay the remainder of the year, failing even to earn a September call up when rosters expanded. On the year in Sacramento he'd make 9 starts, with a 7.61 ERA the belies a still pretty bad 4.92 FIP striking out 8.4 per nine but walking a high 5.4 per nine. Hitters teed off him with a .385 BABIP which seemingly cannot be fully attributable to just poor luck. His 36 2/3 innings in Sacramento really stood in stark contrast to his 36 innings in Oakland that featured a 2.75 ERA and 3.14 FIP aided by an OK 6.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 but stellar 0.3 HR/9.

Ross was added to the Phoenix Desert Dogs roster in the Arizona Fall league and the AFL brought him no respite as he logged 16 2/3 innings of 7.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 but 1.6 HR/9 ball with a 5.94 ERA facing mostly AA and A competition.

For now when the A's talk about the depth of their rotation the Cal-alum Ross is very much an afterthought. His mechanics still portend injury issues in the future and he has shown no ability to get it all together. For a guy who made the Opening Day roster in 2010 out of nowhere this has been a meteoric fall for the lanky righty.

Does Ross have any future in the A's rotation? At this point the rotation appears set with Gonzalez, Cahill, McCarthy, Moscoso. Braden is expected to be back at some point very early in the year so if there are no changes to that (and that is a very big if as I expect Gio to be traded during the winter meetings) it seems there still out to be a fight for that last rotation position. It'll be interesting to see who emerges amid all the talk of the outfield, there is a potential hole or two in the rotation now as we are staring currently at Graham Godfrey and Josh Outman chasing that roster spot, but more holes potentially being created with the trading of our valuable trade chips. It is incredible how in just one year such a big source of depth suddenly seems so shallow. But it is this very lack of depth that seemingly gives Ross another opportunity. We just may not have seen the end of him.

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Mechanically speaking, he should be a starter

However, based on stuff, he’s more suited for the ’pen

by TBRMKane on Dec 4, 2011 11:40 AM PST reply actions  

Mechanically speaking, he should pitch as many innings as possible until his arm explodes.

That, or he needs to completely rework his throwing motion and learn how to pitch all over again.

Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR

by mikev on Dec 4, 2011 11:50 AM PST up reply actions  

irony

It’s funny that I – someone who couldn’t pitch in HS baseball throw in a healthier way than a professional

by dwishinsky on Dec 4, 2011 12:46 PM PST via iPhone app up reply actions  

Not really that ironic.

I’m a terrible athlete, but I throw in a healthier way than virtually all professional baseball pitchers. That’s because they throw at ~80-90 mph while I throw at ~15mph.

Throwing a baseball really hard is unhealthy for the arm, almost by definition.

Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis

by iglew on Dec 4, 2011 3:29 PM PST up reply actions  

true

I just meant in terms of needing to relearn how to throw.

by dwishinsky on Dec 4, 2011 4:04 PM PST via iPhone app up reply actions  

The thing is, these guys don't always have a Mark Prior injury pattern

It doesn’t look like Ross can pitch a healthy, dominant season or two, then fall off a cliff and drop out of baseball due to injuries. It looks more like his terrible mechanics will give him a series of persistent injuries and DL stints. And maybe he’ll still end up blowing out his arm and dropping out of the game.

Send him to Dr. Mike Marshall, I say.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Dec 4, 2011 6:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Either way, I think counting on him is a mistake.

anything he adds has to be considered a bonus

Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR

by mikev on Dec 4, 2011 6:52 PM PST up reply actions  

This is the opposite of what is true.

If he could develop his change-up, his stuff could be front-of-the-rotation good. His raw stuff is already good enough to be a second or third starter. The problem is that since his mechanics are so atrocious, the A’s can’t afford to put 200 innings worth of stress on his arm. Thus, they should limit his innings by putting him in the bullpen—unless you want to go the mikev route and get as many possible innings as you can until his arm breaks.

by NateHST on Dec 4, 2011 1:33 PM PST up reply actions  

He's still young enough.

I say either let him keep starting at AAA, or throw him in the MLB bullpen as the long man—who will eventually take a spot in the rotation due to injury/trade.

Business man by day, fearless couch guardian by night.

by Hoegaarden on Dec 4, 2011 2:08 PM PST up reply actions  

Cool!

A game where the A’s won? I didn’t even know those existed.
Still, a sweet play after some standard 2011 A’s defense.

by Sean Fortuna on Dec 7, 2011 7:30 AM PST up reply actions  

Rotation Depth

Seems like I just read something (Jane Lee maybe?) saying that Dallas Braden’s recovery was going well, that he’d be back on his regular throwing program after the first of the year, and that, barring any setbacks, it was likely he’d be ready to go at the start of the season. Let’s hope so! If that’s the case and no one gets dealt, we could expect to start the year with Gonzalez, Cahill, Moscoso, McCarthy and Braden in the rotation, with Outman, Godfrey and Ross—probably in that order—ready to step in if anyone gets dealt or goes down. So, considering what happened last year, let’s hope Ross can get it back together, since he could be needed at some point – and next on the depth chart would probably be Travis Banwart, who had a 4.63 ERA in 25 starts at Sacramento last year.

by wcmori on Dec 4, 2011 2:59 PM PST reply actions  

I'd lay money on Gio being dealt before opening day

I don’t want to see it but the writing is on the wall

by DeJay on Dec 4, 2011 3:41 PM PST up reply actions  

I'd say that's a safe bet

I thought I’d heard Braden would be just a few weeks behind so could start in April but maybe not break with the big league club right on an early Opening Day.

by dwishinsky on Dec 4, 2011 4:06 PM PST via iPhone app up reply actions  

I disagree.

I feel it’s about 50-50 for Gio being dealt, but I’d lean slightly on the side of not.

But I do think Bailey is almost certainly dealt before Opening Day.

Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis

by iglew on Dec 4, 2011 5:21 PM PST up reply actions  

That's my gut too

More like 50-50 Gio or Cahill is dealt (50-50 neither is dealt), and Bailey is as good as gone.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Dec 4, 2011 5:48 PM PST up reply actions  

Yep

If the A’s can get a Haren like haul (some modern version of Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, Chris Carter and two usable, stop gappish, pieces like Dana Eveland and Greg Smith) for Gio Gonzales and a bullpen arm… They’d be stupid not too. And hopefully they wouldn’t ruin it this time by trading the new version of Carlos Gonzalez for a rent a player like Matt Holliday.

I feel like it would take less to pry Cahill away. But not much less.

Bailey is as good as the next closer for some other team that is willing to give up two prospects.

by jeffro on Dec 5, 2011 6:19 AM PST up reply actions  

Which is why Gio less likely

Beane & Co. know they have Gio & Cahill under club-friendly terms for the next several years, and won’t take anything less than a big haul for them.

Some teams will need time to decide if they’re “win now” mode is activated in light of winter meeting signings. I hope we get some fish to bite, but we could easily make the same request next year – provided Gio & Cahill perform.

It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.

by ru155 on Dec 5, 2011 8:19 AM PST up reply actions  

I agree

The A’s have a lot of leverage and it isn’t like they need to trade either. I hope they don’t trade either because I like ’em both.

by jeffro on Dec 5, 2011 10:10 AM PST up reply actions  

I wouldn't mind seeing Cahill walk.

Heyman tweets that the Royals (is this a bizarro offseason or what, buyers in KC and Miami!?) are interested in Gio. They certainly have the farm system from which to deal.

by dwishinsky on Dec 5, 2011 11:15 AM PST up reply actions  

How is Gio under "club friendly" terms?

He is at the whim of the arbitration process. Which while friendlier than free-agency can get unfriendly too.

by dwishinsky on Dec 5, 2011 10:19 AM PST up reply actions  

It would take a Haren-like haul

for the A’s to consider moving Gio. Not sure how many teams are capable of giving that back in return so I’m not as convinced Gio is gone. Bailey is pretty much a foregone conclusion.

by Tyler Bleszinski on Dec 5, 2011 9:59 AM PST up reply actions  

Bailey is a sure thing

I think Gio is 80/20 gone. If Cahill somehow is dealt that drops but I don’t see folks as being so high on Cahill (and rightfully so)

by dwishinsky on Dec 4, 2011 10:38 PM PST via iPhone app up reply actions  

Friday is an early deadline.

Cordero, K-Rod, Madson, and Capps are still on the FA market. Once 2 or 3 of them sign, it won’t be long. I expect him to be dealt after Friday, but probably before New Year’s.

by BWH on Dec 5, 2011 1:55 PM PST up reply actions  

I agree.

Bailey will definitely be traded, but probably not this week.

Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis

by iglew on Dec 5, 2011 2:00 PM PST up reply actions  

I think Ross does have a future in the A's rotation

First of all, you almost always need 7-8 starting pitchers to get through a season. dwishinsky mentions 4 SPs who are “sure things” but likely, one of the current “sure things” will be traded. So really, from Gio, Cahill, McCarthy, Moscoso you probably have 3 SPs with Braden on the way, but McCarthy and Braden have big injury histories.

Basically, if Ross can get back to his “start of 2010” form and is healthy, he’s going to be one of your best 5 at some point in 2012.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Dec 4, 2011 4:45 PM PST reply actions  

McCarthy, Ross and Braden are all injury prone

If the A’s keep all three they’re likely to total 1-2 pitchers. I don’t expect Anderson back before the All Star Break, and realistically, it may be another year before he’s pitching anywhere near back to form.

by OaklandSi on Dec 4, 2011 6:25 PM PST up reply actions  

The only one with any possible trade value is McCarthy, and even that's probably not much

They more or less have to keep all 3

I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min

by WaddellCanseco on Dec 4, 2011 7:07 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm still inclined to try to re-sign McCarthy long (ish) term

Something like 3 years, $20M, perhaps with some kind of injury-related buyout clause after the second year.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Dec 5, 2011 3:54 PM PST up reply actions  

Seconded. He was worth that entire dollar value in 2011 according to Fangraphs.

"I think what baseball projects, and what classical music needs, is the sense that one goes to a live event not to experience greatness, but to experience the possibility of greatness.... Not every game is great but what we go for is the chance that this particular game might be.' —David Lang

by King Richard on Dec 5, 2011 4:10 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes, please.

I like McCarthy’s numbers and his intangibles.

Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis

by iglew on Dec 5, 2011 11:17 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't really have a better use for $20M than that if it has to be spent on the major league roster.

He could be traded at some point for prospects conceivably.

I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min

by WaddellCanseco on Dec 6, 2011 10:42 PM PST up reply actions  

I Would Go For That

He pitched very well and was the most consistent guy on the staff. He also kept going deep into ballgames. Maybe slightly less money – 3 years, 18 million, perhaps?

by Sean Fortuna on Dec 7, 2011 7:31 AM PST up reply actions  

I wonder how soon the A's think Sonny Gray will be ready for the majors

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Dec 4, 2011 6:31 PM PST reply actions  

Based on past instances with Street, Buck, Cahill, Anderson,

he could start eating up service time too soon just because he looks good in spring training. Hopefully the mantra of, “We want to be good when the new stadium opens” will help keep his development at a more logical pace. Still, he could be legitimately ready for the 2013 season if he picks up in AA-AAA next season where he left off in 2011.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Dec 4, 2011 6:38 PM PST up reply actions  

I guess what I'm specifically wondering...

is whether the A’s are counting him as a plan B for this year in case of (re)injury, trades, etc. If they trade Gio or Cahill, which means Moscoso is back in the rotation, what do they do if/when Braden goes on the DL? Are they thinking that Gray will be part of the mix by the middle of the season? Or are they building a plan in which he’s an absolute last, desperate measure?

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Dec 5, 2011 10:37 AM PST up reply actions  

I think you leave Gray in AA/AAA regardless

There are plenty of guys of the Graham Godfrey variety to stick in in a pinch. We aren’t goign to be competing for any crowns next year.

by dwishinsky on Dec 5, 2011 11:16 AM PST up reply actions  

FWIW someone named Frankie Piliere said that Gray would "absolutely" be ready for the

big league rotation at some point in 2012, and maybe even at the start of the year, in an interview with Lockard. Piliere is described in the article as “Scout’s National Baseball Expert”, whatever that means.

I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min

by WaddellCanseco on Dec 4, 2011 7:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Piliere's the guy who said the A's were leaning towards drafting Zack Cox in 2010.

So I made a fanpost about it and then he said they weren’t and it made me look bad.

by NateHST on Dec 4, 2011 9:08 PM PST up reply actions  

I'd say that makes him look bad more than you.

I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min

by WaddellCanseco on Dec 5, 2011 8:24 AM PST up reply actions  

I think the lingering injury may be the problem

Maybe with some rest, he’ll show us in March what he was

But sometimes players get hurt and just can’t come back from it. Hope not; too much talent

by Screamer on Dec 5, 2011 8:02 AM PST reply actions  

I'd Like To See Him On The Team

Be it bullpen or rotation. If Gio’s gone by next year, he may get a chance at being in the rotation.

by Sean Fortuna on Dec 5, 2011 8:10 AM PST reply actions  

I can't believe you're all forgetting about Rich Harden!

The A’s will resign him, and he will be teh awesome this time around!

Hi ho.

by danh on Dec 6, 2011 1:04 PM PST reply actions  

This comment should read, at the bottom,

“by danh on Dec 6, 20xx”

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Dec 6, 2011 7:58 PM PST up reply actions  

Well, Harden's Interesting

He can be electric, and has some nasty stuff, but he’s inconsistent, wild, allows a lot of homers and racks up high pitch counts which prevents him from going deep into ballgames. Maybe he could be a low-cost long reliever?

by Sean Fortuna on Dec 7, 2011 7:35 AM PST up reply actions  

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