Around the world: Getting to know international FA's
by YonYonson on Dec 3, 2011 7:01 AM PST
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PrintThis time of year is a little depressing for A's fans. It's like the MLB teams have all been released into a giant candy store. Many kids can (and do) start pawing at peanut butter cups, peanut brittle, chocolate bars and the like. The A's are only able to afford gumballs and hoping one of the other kids drops a piece of fudge on the ground.
The once-frugal Miami Marlins recently signed closer Heath Bell to a 3 year/$27 million deal, and have been linked to Albert Pujols and José Reyes, in preparation of their new stadium. The Nationals and Rangers have been rumored to be contenders to fork over large sums of money for Prince Fielder.
While the A's will possibly once again be dining on Smarties instead of M&Ms, they might be able to head around the corner to see what else is out there. Who knows?
Some (Major League-ready) options:
Cuban OF Yoenis Cespedes, 26
via mlb.mlb.com
Cespedes, aside from having the greatest beisbol-related YouTube video ever (seriously, watch it), fits a glaring A's need: outfield. Ryan Sweeney might appreciate the help. Cespedes has been compared to Bo Jackson (so keep him away from the football field), Cameron Maybin and Raul Mondesi.
ESPN's Jerry Crasnick recently wrote about the newest (likely) Cuban defector.
ESPN.com solicited opinions on Cespedes from three talent evaluators -- the first two who attended his workout -- and got the following responses:
• "Physically this guy is everything you would want in an athlete,'' said an American League scouting director. "Does he have home run strength? Yes. Does he have running speed? Yes. Is he explosive? Yes. He has a good first step, and it looks like he can field at an above-average level. The arm is good, not great. It's going to come down to his ability to hit for average, because that's going to allow some of that raw strength to come into play.''
• "He's physically comparable to a guy like Bo Jackson,'' said the NL scout. "He's a powerfully built kid and very athletic. He's an outstanding kid with some aptitude, so maybe he's a guy you hit on. I just want better odds for $50 million. You're betting more on the come at 26 years old than you want to. We have no guarantees with this stuff, and that's the problem. If I'm spending that kind of money, I need to have the odds reduced somehow, and it's impossible with these guys. With the Japanese players, I think you get a little better gauge. People see those guys play in a lot more games, and even the track record there is not that good. We're a lot more up in the air with this 'Cuban aura.'"
Finally, there was this email from a front-office man with a National League club:
• "He's a five-tool, high-ceiling guy with some concerns about his swing and miss,'' the executive said. "He's more likely to hit 30 homers than hit .300 and probably compares best to somebody like Cameron Maybin, but with more power if less range and speed. He's stronger and more stocky and may end up on an outfield corner in a few years, but for now he can play center field … For a club like the Yankees or Boston who can afford those investments [and are both predominately left-handed], he makes some sense.''
Financially, I don't think the A's would make a run at this guy, but you never know. MLB's Peter Gammons and Yahoo!'s Tim Brown have noted that Oakland has shown interest. Then again, that's like me publicizing that I've shown interest in Christina Hendricks. Billy Beane has said that no big signings will be made until the stadium situation is settled, and teams with bigger pockets (i.e. the Phillies, Yankees and Cubs) have also been liked to Cespedes. They could swoop in and sign Cespedes before the A's even get the chance to say hello.
Japanese RHP Yu Darvish, 25
via www.nasorb.com
Yu Darvish has been called the best pitcher to come from Japan since Daisuke Matsuzaka, and possibly even better. It is rumored that he could go through the posting process this offseason. It seems like every day, the possibility changes.
Currently pitching for the Hokkaido-Nippon Ham Fighters (No, they do not fight ham. Nippon Ham owns the team.), Yu has posted earned run averages below 2 for the past five seasons. He's also led Nippon Professional Baseball in strikeouts the past two years. Advanced stats here. Granted, this is in no way indicative of his potential success in Major League Baseball, where hitters are believed to be much better. Unlike many Japanese pitchers, Yu can throw has hard as 97 mph, but usually sits in the low 90s.
The likelihood of him signing with Oakland? I'd say 0. Especially after the Hisashi Iwakuma fiasco.
Japanese LHP Wei-Yin Chen, 26
via userdisk.webry.biglobe.ne.jp
To clarify, Chen is Taiwanese but playing NPB in Japan. The lefty can throw in the low 90s and apparently will come much cheaper than Yu, as Chen will not be subject to a posting fee.
For the 2011 season Chen’s fastball sat at 88 – 91. He has hit 95 MPH numerous times this season. His secondary pitch is an 80-82 MPH slider and he rounds out his arsenal with a forkball at 83-85. He occasionally mixes in a curve and a cutter.
Chen finished the 2011 season with 163 IP, 135 hits allowed, 93 K vs 36 BB+HBP. He averaged right 98 pitches per start and avoided the insane Yu Darvish like in-game pitch counts. Chen threw 120+ pitches only twice during the season.
Chen’s K rate declined in 2011, falling under 6 per 9. His previous career rates was right around 8 K per 9 IP. However, he off-set his K rate with a drastic reduction in HR allowed. In 2010 he allowed 21 HR in 188 IP. This season he held opponents to a total of 8 HR.
Should Yu not go through the posting process and stay in Japan, expect Chen to be one of the top Japanese pitchers on the free agent market.
Japanese RHP Hisashi Iwakuma, 30
via nbchardballtalk.files.wordpress.com
I'm guessing no. He'll be a free agent, though.
Japanese LHP Tsuyoshi Wada, 30
via www1.pictures.gi.zimbio.com
Tsuyoshi is another intriguing Japanese pitcher. Unlike Chen, he's more of a Dallas Braden soft-tossing lefty type. No word on whether or not he has geographic or facial hair-based tattoos. Wada in July reached the service time necessary to become a full-fledged free agent, meaning he also will not have to go through the posting process.
Via Fangraphs:
Wada reminds me of Dallas Braden (or rather, Braden reminds me of Wada), with his arsenal of a 86-87 mph fastball, a good circle change, and a solid slider. To use a cliche, Wada knows how to pitch. He’s had a strikeout rate in the 7-8 for most of his career despite a fastball that’s average even in NPB. I found game footage of Wada’s August 25th start against Orix. He didn’t have his best stuff, but it’s enough to give you an idea of what he throws.
So, how do you think Oakland's negotiations with Hisashi Iwakuma will affect other deals Beane might approach with Japanese free agents?
I'll be on the road all day today and unable to really participate until this evening. Have a safe weekend, everyone!
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Because Iwakuma had an agent who's an idiot and made Oakland look bad?
Or because no one wants to play in Oakland?
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 3, 2011 11:42 AM PST up reply actions
If you're a borderline starter, sure.
If you enjoy winning though you go elsewhere.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
Because Beane handled the Iwakuma situation like an idiot and make Oakland look bad
And because I’d rather play for a better team
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 3, 2011 5:53 PM PST up reply actions
There is absolutely no validity to this statement, IMO
Beane was put into a situation with an agent who had no business dealing with anyone in MLB.
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 4, 2011 9:19 AM PST up reply actions
Any reason to believe it was the agent's unreasonableness and not Beane's stupidity?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 4, 2011 11:18 AM PST up reply actions
Well, there was the agent publicly making stupid statements on Twitter
and in comparison Beane’s track record of being a very good GM.
But yeah, give the benefit of the doubt to the agent who is in over his head. Good call.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Yeah, I don't know why anyone would act like the agent was the good guy there
I think the A’s could have offered Iwakuma more than they seemed to but they took the opinion that the posting fee is essentially included in the overall price they’d pay. On top of that, it seemed like Iwakuma’s agent was demanding much more than Iwakuma should have received.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Because I have no doubt that Beane handled the situation very stupidly.
Iwakuma had every reason to believe that on the open market he was worth something like Kuroda …… something like $4 yrs/$48M. He was going to make something like $5M in Japan. If he just stayed there for a year he would likely make something like 3yrs/$36M for the following 3 years. He was expecting something like 4 yrs/$41M — 1 yr at $5M plus 3yrs/$36M.
The Twins knew this and bid something like $7M for a posting fee. Then their total cost would have been something like 4 yrs/$48M….which is about what Iwakuma is worth….even according to Beane who was willing to pay a total of $48M or so for 4 yrs including the posting fee.
Beane stupidly bid $19M or whatever it was and expected Iwakuma to get paid like Kei Igawa….something like 4 yrs/$20M. Why the hell would Iwakuma take a 4 yr/$20M deal when he could just wait a year and get 4yrs/$41M?
If anyone thinks Beane was anything was totally idiotic here, I’d like to see an explanation of why?
It’s not a question of giving anyone the benefit of the doubt. Beane was demonstrably stupid.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 4, 2011 6:53 PM PST up reply actions
All of these figures are conjecture
From what I remember, the Twins claimed they never even submitted a bid.
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 4, 2011 7:31 PM PST up reply actions
wait it actually looks like WC's numbers may be correct
• General manager Bill Smith revealed during a recent interview with Patrick Reusse and Phil Mackey on 1500-ESPN that the Twins finished runner-up in the bidding for Japanese starting pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma, which took place about four weeks before they won the bidding for infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka. According to Smith the Twins bid $7.7 million for Iwakuma, which was nowhere near the A’s winning bid of $19.1 million. And ultimately he didn’t sign.
I attribute my comment above to alcohol and the fact that the polemical language in WC’s comment was off-putting.
Also, there’s this:
Based on Iwakuma’s reported asking price the Twins likely would have balked at his demands too
Sounds like Iwakuma was unlikely to come to MLB in any circumstance, so it’s like, whatever.
by BWH on Dec 4, 2011 8:33 PM PST up reply actions
This Moneyball driven Beane worship is making me cranky
the polemical language in WC’s comment was off-putting.
To wit:
Beane was put into a situation with an agent who had no business dealing with anyone in MLB.
and this:
Well, there was the agent publicly making stupid statements on Twitter
and in comparison Beane’s track record of being a very good GM.
But yeah, give the benefit of the doubt to the agent who is in over his head. Good call.
Both of these statements were aggressively attacking the agent without any research or facts….just the notion that Beane must be right because he’s awesome.
The facts tell a very different story.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 4, 2011 10:23 PM PST up reply actions
Is it really necessary that either side was wrong or stupid in this case?
I mean, there was a negotiation, one guy said you’re worth X, the other guy said no I’m worth Y, they disagreed and went their separate ways. No harm on either side. I mean, you can say Beane has made mistakes in the past, but I don’t know how this is one of them. He merely offered somebody what that person was worth to him.
Ok, have I never criticized Beane on here?
Of course I have, and in some instances, I’ve been pretty disappointed in his dealings with Free Agents, the draft, etc. However, I don’t believe he had any wrongdoing in these negotiations based on exactly what happened.
We won the bid for, yeah, a fairly high amount. Whether it was too much or not is irrelevant, it was what it was based on what Oakland thought was the amount it would take to win a bid. Then, while negotiations were still ongoing, Iwakuma’s agent made comments saying he and his client were disrespected and so on (the transcript is still up in older threads). At that point, the agent has lost all credibility, IMO, and I no longer want to work with him. And unless Beane was being completely insincere, he stated he really would have wanted Iwakuma, he was merely paying what he was worth, while factoring in a posting fee. Can you blame him for not wanting to pay more for what is essentially a wild card when it comes to performance in the Majors?
I just don’t understand how you can say you’re displaying the facts and what I’m saying is wrong because, apparently, I love Beane and think he’s god’s greatest gift to baseball. Any numbers being thrown around, besides the posting fee that was confirmed, are pretty much coming from the agent, and came from a place of anger, while there was still time to get a deal done.
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 5, 2011 9:30 AM PST up reply actions
You could call it conjecture....or you could check out whether it's true
According to Hardball Talk
the A’s were offering a four-year, $15.25 million deal, and were using Kei Igawa and Colby Lewis as comps, while Nomura was using Hiroki Kuroda (three-years, $35.3 million)
We’ll see what Iwakuma gets this year and whether he’d have been better off taking the A’s deal.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 4, 2011 10:19 PM PST up reply actions
His deal this year has absolutely nothing to do with what he would have gotten last year.
and if you don’t realize that, you don’t really understand the posting process and how the contracts go very well.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Even if it's true that Beane's offer was not remotely realistic,
that still doesn’t necessarily make it stupid. It cost us nothing, right?
Sounds to me like it’s the posting system that’s stupid. You can put in a crazy high bid for the posting fee, then a crazy low one for the salary. If the guy really does want to play in the U.S. that badly, then you get him at a price that suits you. If he doesn’t then you’ve made sure no one else gets him. The only downside is potential loss of goodwill from certain players and agents, but have we really established the amount and value of that, if any?
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
If I'm an American, Dominican, Mexican, Cuban FA I want no part of Beane.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
I don't think the Iwakuma negotiations will be a hindrance for the A's
I think most people coming from the NPB to MLB realize that the real bad guy is the posting process itself. The fact that the A’s and Iwakuma couldn’t come to an agreement shouldn’t be seen as a reason for international free agents to stay away from Oakland.
I do think the experience could lead the A’s to stay away from guys who are going through the posting process.
Interesting, but related, side note - I was just reading this AM about the changes to the rules for International FA - set to change next "draft" year.
Couldn’t find a link to the article I read in my app – but the gist of it is this – this will be the last year for unfettered signing and the rules change next year. Going forward teams will be limited to $$ spent based on their records with winning teams spending less and penalized for going over the set limit. This is supposed to level the playing field and might lead to a formalized draft. This is Fangraphs take and a summary from SB Nation - scroll down to IFA Concerns.
AN Tailgate = Euphemism for food porn.
Yeah I was wondering what the deal with Japanese and Cuban international free agents would be in relation to the new CBA
You would assume they are not included in the international free agent budget because one of them would easily demand the bonus limit ten fold but I haven’t seen any confirmation of this
I wish I could find that MLB story - because I think this was addressed...just do not recall the details.
Something like if the players come from an established league system like Japan and Cuba they were not subject to the rules. But don’t take my word for it! If I can find it – I will post it.
AN Tailgate = Euphemism for food porn.
Those players are essentially treated like MLB free agents
They’re not subject to the limits once they’re over a certain age.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Nice write-up
But this?!
dining on Smarties instead of M&Ms
Smarties were rocking the chocolate world since way before the M&Ms even had the faintest plan of ever existing. Unless you are talking about that sorry excuse for a candy that is called “Smarties” in the States…
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
Wait, there's a kind of "Smarties" that don't suck?
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I like the U.S. type of Smarties.
I like M&Ms, too. M&Ms are maybe a little better than (U.S.) Smarties, but I wouldn’t say they are Oakland-vs-rich teams better.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
I could see
One or two having to be done to hit the unofficial salary floor going forward. I think Cespedes would be a possibility, as the OF need is there.
His swing reminds me of Vlad a bit.
maybe, but the pirates and the marlins had no problem having a dramatically low salary
It’s not like MLB doesn’t know what’s going on with the A’s stadium situation, I’m sure they could just go with the youth movement and cut payroll in half.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 5, 2011 10:48 AM PST up reply actions
The Marlins did get in trouble for the year
where their payroll dipped below the revenue sharing amount. In the revenue sharing language (part of the CBA) there is a requirement that the money be used to improve the product on the field. I forget the exact language, but it has been interpreted to mean payroll.
Cutting payroll in half would put the A’s under the revenue sharing amount. I think somewhere around 2/3 would be OK, though. I’d need to know the exact salary and revenue sharing numbers to say for sure.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Interesting
What exactly does “get in trouble” mean? They had to give some of the revenue sharing money back? If so, that still might not be that big of a deal.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 5, 2011 11:07 AM PST up reply actions
The revenue sharing terms are part of the (old) CBA.
The promise to spend all their revenue sharing on payroll is essentially a promise to the player’s union. The Union threatened to sue the Marlins over it. After years of lawyering over it they came up with a settlement. I don’t think the full terms were made public, but the Marlins agreed to have their spending monitored with specific promises to significantly increase spending over the next few years. The team’s recent big-money signings seem to be directly tied to that.
The agreement was in the 2009-2010 off-season. Here is a NY Times story that covers it pretty well.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Yes, he's a very good writer
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 3, 2011 5:55 PM PST up reply actions
Yes, Yon... Great stuff.
At one point in my life I liked Dave Kingman more than Rickey Henderson. I was stupid.
by the_rozeboom on Dec 3, 2011 10:23 PM PST up reply actions
Thanks everyone
Sorry, I’ve been driving/hanging around San Diego all day. I appreciate the comments, and I’m on kind of a trial basis until Nico gets back from his sabbatical.
"He's listed as day to day, but then again, aren't we all?" — Vin Scully
If you're actually willing to commit to a regular front-page gig,
I am 100% in favor of you signing on, regardless of anyone else’s sabbatical.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
For the record, the agreement we made was
“Sub for me for two months and then we’ll have the conversation that goes, ‘So now what…?’” Basically, we decided to enter it to it as a two-way trial. So given that we want YY to write (I certainly do, personally), the question will be whether he wants to (or can) make that commitment.
YY told me he wasn’t as sure about doing game threads, and LB has said he’s more of a “game thread guy” than a “writer guy”. My prediction following the “two-month trial”? I smell a platoon! Gary Roenicke/John Lowenstein FTW!!!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
YonYon-Bloomie platoon!
Woo!
Seriously, running game threads and doing front-page articles are two really different things. It makes perfect sense that some people would want to do one but not the other.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
There is also 19 year old Jorge Soler
He is an outfielder from Cuba who is thought to have a higher upside than Cespedes but further away. This is a guy I hope the A’s would be interested in. They were in on Chapman and interested in Cespedes. He will be cheaper than both were/are and could pay dividends. I freely admit, however, that I am always pulled into the allure of these Cuban players.
"I don't mean to sound bitter, cold or cruel, but I am, so that's how it comes out" -RIP Bill Hicks
by Johnny Carcinogen on Dec 4, 2011 2:18 AM PST reply actions
Sure but I'm not seeing much of a downside in bidding on Soler. If he sucks they're out the
few million that they would have otherwise spent on the next Brian Fuentes, Grant Balfour, Josh Willingham, Hideki Matsui or Coco Crisp.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 4, 2011 11:20 AM PST up reply actions
One of those names is not like the other.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
One?
To me that looks like two good and one bad. Neither of the good ones were great, but both were worth the money, Crisp for two years and Willingham for one year. Of the bad ones, two of the three were two year contracts, so it remains to be seen if in 2012 they can redeem themselves or turn out even worse.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
You have obviously missed that "Coco Crisp"
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
... is the only one that can be spelled without an "A"
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
Willingham was acquired via trade, the others were FAs.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
iglew, you gotta dust off the sesame street skills.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 5, 2011 10:50 AM PST up reply actions
<hangs head in shame>
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
There's a couple more interesting names
Soler, for one. SS Hiroyuki Nakajima. Regardless, I think the international market is where the A’s need to be most aggressive this year. Get as much talent as you can. Bet risky because we know the A’s won’t be good if they play it safe.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
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