Post-Darvish Rumor Thread
by NateHST on Dec 20, 2011 12:57 AM PST
Email
PrintLet's face it, things have been boring since the A's traded Cahill for Jarrod Parker, Collin Cowgill, and Ryan Cook. The next big hump in the 2011-2012 MLB postseason, which was the announcement of which team posted the winning bid for Japanese phenom Yu Darvish, has come and gone. And much to the chagrin of most Athletics fans, that winning bid came from the Texas Rangers. The rich get richer, I guess?
How this affects the Oakland Athletics in coming days should be obvious. Any team that lost out on Darvish has one less impact target to choose from. Latos is already off the table. John Danks and Gavin Floyd are both viable options, but neither of them comes with the obvious luxury of having at least four more years of team control. From recent rumors, it sounds like the second place team in the Darvish bidding was Toronto, who already supposedly expressed real interest in Gio Gonzalez.
Per Slusser, Toronto's farm system is loaded, so trading for Gonzalez "makes the most sense right now." I definitely wouldn't be surprised, and I wouldn't be unhappy. Their farm system really is chock-full of talent. The other teams who have apparent interest in Gonzalez is Detroit (from whom the A's reportedly asked for Jacob Turner, Drew Smyly, and Nick Castellanos), Washington (who has reportedly discussed a four-for-one deal), New York (who are reluctant to include pitching prospects and Jesus Montero), and possibly Kansas City (who is reluctant to include top prospect Wil Myers in any deal).
Things should pick up fairly quickly.
425 comments
|
2 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Washington seems to have a good mix of talent to get it done....
A package could look like this:
1. Brad Peacock SP
2. Derek Norris C
then
3. Tom Milone or Sammy Solis (Milone would be the hope, but it might be difficult to convince Wash to throw in both Peacock and Milone since both are MLB ready)
4. Destin Hood OF or Steve Lombardozzi 2B/3B (Hood seemingly having more upside of the two)
AJ Cole would also be a nice get, but I’m assuming that Washington would be resistant to giving him up and Peacock might have just as much potential. Robbie Ray, is another young arm with very good potential that I would attempt to ask for as a 3rd piece.
Personally, I would love to see (and think the Nats would bite) a package of:
1. Brad Peacock SP
2. Derek Norris C
3. Robbie Ray SP
4. Destin Hood OF
Even though this is a steep price (in my book at least), you could see the Nats agreeing to this price b/c:
1. They are not giving up their Top 3 prospects, essentially (Harper, Rendon, Cole)
2. They will have Strasburg, Gonzalez and Zimmerman and yet also still have a strong arsenal of potential Ace prospects (Cole, Myers, Purke) and 2 potential near MLB ready, “innings-eaters” (Malone + Solis), so giving up Peacock and Ray is an easier pill to swallow,
3. Derek Norris is blocked by Wilson Ramos
4. Hood has good upside, but is still young and raw and they have a better high upside OF prospect in Brian Goodwin
Solis has a bum elbow
Steve Lombardozzi will make a great utility player. He could probably start at 2B… are we trading Weeks too?
I think a deal would have to be headlined by Peacock or Cole. If it’s Cole, you might get Milone. Hood looks like a LF only.
The monster at the end of this blog.
out there
At one time the Nat’s were thought to be in the hunt for Fielder. If they signed Fielder, would a deal were the A’s trade Gio to the Nat’s for Morse and Peacock (and more?), and then flip Morse to Texas for more prospects work? A lot has to happen, ie Fielder.
If they're willing to part with Cole, then why not try and get Rendon instead?
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 20, 2011 7:09 AM PST up reply actions
Rendon
The Nat’s can’t trade Rendon or any other player signed from the 2011 draft until one year has gone by, from the players signing date. Thus Rendon, Goodwin Meyer and Pucke are out.
Peacock and Rendon...
Let Rendon be a PTBNL.
I’d take those 2. We get a replacement for GIo in the rotation and a future possible stud 3B.
by Brett Narloch on Dec 20, 2011 7:16 AM PST up reply actions
Think that through
Rendon can’t be traded from Washington until late-July/August. Do you trust Washington to develop him through ST and the first half of 2012? What happens if he gets hurt? Or, do you ask the Nationals to bench him and not let him play (and develop) until he gets to Oakland?
The monster at the end of this blog.
Why does any team take a PTBNL?
Work out an agreement with the Nats. If he fails a physical then the A’s get 2 or 3 players from a pool of other top prospects.
Put some contingencies in an agreement to protect yourself. Be creative.
by Brett Narloch on Dec 20, 2011 8:42 AM PST up reply actions
Seriously... think about this
If the A’s had the option to take 2-3 other players if something happened to Rendon, then why not just take those guys now?
The PTBNL happens when the prospect a team wants can’t be traded (yet) or the value of the (typically) veteran player is up for debate. High end prospects can be and have been PTBNL… but typically they’re delayed by days, not weeks.
The monster at the end of this blog.
It can also be a timing issue, right?
The other team needs your player immediately, but you aren’t sure which player you want back. This gives them the player they need, and you time to decide who you want in return.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
I don't think they'd trade Rendon, but isn't there a mechanism built in
to the PTBNL system that prevents this? I thought PTBNL often came as a list of players, so that if one became injured or just flopped, then there are other options. In this case, if the A’s wanted Rendon, they could ask for Alex Meyer or Brian Goodwin to also be on that list.
So Washington’s sort of forced to develop them on a normal curve because they’re going to end up keeping two of them. Which two, though, remains to be seen.
How long did we hold Bonderman as a PTBNL?
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Ah, for some reason I was thinking that was a winter trade.
Now I remember, it was that July trade for Ted Lilly.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
add
They can be PTBN for up to six month, so I think Rendon signed in August. So in theory he could be a PTBN in a deal made in Feb. So not likely.
rent
In the past, as I recall, players have been rented to other organization. Mostly in single A ball, when some team need to fill a hole. I may not be getting this right. But if that is true, the A’s could make such a deal and then rent Rendon for the 6 months, so that he is in the A’s minors, with A’s coaching. Anyway, just a thought.
All the Nat’s top picks signed on August 15, 2011, so the first they can be traded as PTBN is Feb 15th 2012
grover, um...........
I’m not quite sure what you are responding to; whether you are being critical or what…. In the first 3 paragraphs, I was throwing out a couple of names based off what the A’s should roughly expect.
So, imo, Peacock and Norris are the likely 1 and 2 players in the package if Beane is even going to consider trading Gio Gonzalez this early in the offseason (note: he may back off later, but right now if he’s asking for Turner/Castellanos, then he’s at least asking for Peacock/Norris or Cole/Norris).
Then, grover, I threw out a couple of names that could slot in as the 3rd and 4th pieces but didn’t represent that as the package I would ask for (the package I said I would ask for included neither Solis nor Lombardozzi).
So could you clarify your response?
by infinitejest on Dec 20, 2011 1:15 PM PST up reply actions
How more clear do I need to be?
Solis is hurt. Cross him off the list. Lombardozzi is a utility guy; we don’t want the A’s trading Gio for bench help. They don’t even belong in the discussion that’s sure to follow.
Hood projects to LF. So he needs to hit to have value. Cole and Peacock are the top 2 SP prospects in Washington’s system.
I don’t feel like writing detailed analysis on a dozen different Washington prospects so I’m just highlighting a couple players.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Okay, thats fine....
Then respond NARROWLY to the package I proposed if you feel the need to weigh in…. which was:
1. Peacock
2. Norris
3. Ray
4. Hood
I’ll make it easy on you, by asking questions to which a short-hand answer will suffice:
1. We know that Beane wants a return to center on two B+/A- prospects (can be inferred from asking for Turner/Castellanos and Reds receiving Grandall/Alonzo for latos), do you agree that Peacock/Norris falls in line with that request? (Y/N)… (if NO, I disagree and am truly curious why)
2. We know that Beane also wants a B/B- player with some upside as the 3rd player (can be inferred by asking for Smyly- a strong B prospect- as a 3rd player from Detroit and SD receiving Boxberger, B-, as 3rd player). Is Robbie Ray a comparable third piece? (Y/N)
3. If Yes to the first 2 questions, is Dustin Hood a reasonable player to ask for as a 4th piece in this supposed 4 for 1 deal? or would the A’s merely get a C+, limited-upside prospect as filler…
And to respond to your other statements, I was aware that Solis got injured last year but if it is not serious and he checks out medically, you can’t say that he wouldn’t still be included as a 3rd/4th piece. (though I profess to not knowing the extent of his injury).
And, yes, Lombardozzi is likely to be a good utility player- but that might be all you can expect as the FOURTH piece in a deal and, to any event, I believe I read somewhere that he could potentially play 3rd so acquiring him might provide good short-term insurance in case Sizemore fails.
by infinitejest on Dec 20, 2011 2:09 PM PST up reply actions
You felt I was short with you
Maybe I hurt your feelings.
Ize Sorree.
I’d prefer Cole to Peacock. No alternative to Norris. Milone to Ray (giving the A’s a MLB ready arm). And Taylor to Hood. Peacock probably ends up a #3 SP, might reach #2; Ray currently has a similar profile. I think Cole could be an Ace.
Solis hasn’t been cleared medically and if this deal happens fast… why deal with the unknown? Even you’re asking for Hood, whom if he hits would be a slugging LF, as the 4th piece in your NARROW proposal. So again, why are we talking about Lombardozzi?
The monster at the end of this blog.
Ha, don't worry my psyche doesn't get easily bruised...
I just wanted a more direct response as to what package might work, if I’m off-base. But, at the time, I was under the impression Sickel’s had not posted the Nationals prospect rankings so I didn’t have firm grades to base my proposed package off of and made assumptions (now seemingly a little off in Sickels opinion) that Peacock and Norris would be B+’s. Now, with the help of firm grades, it’s easier to see that Beane would likely insist on Cole over Peacock.
by infinitejest on Dec 20, 2011 2:55 PM PST up reply actions
grover, I just saw that Sickels posted grades after posting....
So I can see where your coming from now if your argument is that Peacock/Norris + is not a strong enough package. I would have expected that Norris and Peacock would be B+ prospects, but apparently that is not the case. I still think Peacock/Norris/Ray/Hood is ultimately a pretty good return (even if you accept Sickel’s grades as representative of each prospects true value) but I can see how that would not win the bid at the moment when Beane’s asking price is so high.
by infinitejest on Dec 20, 2011 2:36 PM PST up reply actions
Why cross Solis off the list because he's hurt?
Wouldn’t that make a good A’s target? Someone who can’t help you for a year but might be really good down the line and is “buy low”?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
As compelling a counter-argument as that is,
I’d gladly acquire a Brett Anderson right now if I were the A’s.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
You mean someone in the recovery stage? That's a possibility.
Acquiring someone before they’ve even seen Dr. Yocum? Horribly bad idea.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I'm not referring to Solis specifically (I don't know his situation)
I’m just saying that targeting an injured player could be a good idea right now.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
You weren't referring to Solis specifically?
After specifically naming Solis?
Interesting.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I didn't know he was pre-TJS, just that he was "injured"
Not so interesting.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Book
Is not “Infinite Jest” one of the books in the Robert Jordon series Wheel of Time. Or maybe Martin’s, Game of Thrones, A Clash of Kings and Infinite Jester
Just think HBO’s new series Infinite Jester produced by Martin with Sean Bean playing Billy Beane…..GM with a Sword, ….who wants moneyball when you can get Gold!!!!!!!!! or at least Green and Gold…..I could go on, but best to stop…
aaaahhhhh!
Brad! BRAD Peacock. Suddenly all of this makes so much more sense. I was wondering why we were spending all this time talking about someone who apparently can’t hit.
I like Cole a little bit more than Peacock. It's really hard to get a read on Peacock's numbers.
But I supposed they’re probably interchangeable. I like Milone a lot, but as I explained to grover yesterday, I have a real penchant for lefties with excellent control (his career K/BB rate in the minors is 5.54, and it was 9.69 this year in AAA). I don’t think they’d trade Milone and Peacock, as they’re both MLB-ready. Norris scares me some, and I have a feeling he would be end up a whipping boy for the same reasons Cust did. His plate discipline and powere are excellent though.
Who says no to:
AJ Cole
Derek Norris
Tom Milone
Robbie Ray/Destin Hood
Peacock made a mechanical adjustment prior to 2011 that seems to have made a significant difference
I think Washington would trade Milone and Peacock, I don’t see the A’s wanting both.
And I’d prefer to gamble on another Michael Taylor to Destin Hood.
The monster at the end of this blog.
What do you like about Taylor? He doesn't walk, strikes out a bunch, and it looks
like he hits for less power than Hood. Given the age difference, they’re basically on the same track.
Also, do you prefer Cole or Peacock?
Hood is probably a little safer
Taylor can play CF… at least he did in the Sally League. I think his upside is better than Hood and I like to maximize the upside when talking about lottery tickets. He is rawer than Hood and I wouldn’t foam at the mouth if Hood came over instead.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Cole over Peacock
Again, betting on the upside.
If Oakland is going to trade 4 years of a relatively known quantity in Gio then I want the payoff to be Fucking-A amazing.
The monster at the end of this blog.
So, if that's what the four-for-one deal looked like, would you do it?
Cole, Norris, Milone, Taylor?
I'd happily take that...
If it proves to be a pipe dream to get Turner, Castellanos and Smyly or if Toronto doesn’t want to step up with something greater. Getting another potential 1/2 pitcher in Cole (to pair with Parker); a top catcher prospect who gets on base, hits for power and is strong defensively (from what I’ve read); a potential mid-rotation starter in Malone; and a lottery ticket in Taylor— seems like a very strong package AND one that Washington could rationalize as necessary to take the next step to becoming a playoff contender in the short-term.
by infinitejest on Dec 20, 2011 3:10 PM PST up reply actions
Well... Hood got the B-
But yes. I think Cole/Norris/Milone/Taylor is the best, reasonable package Washington could offer. I wouldn’t argue with Peacock in place of Milone but I don’t see it happening.
I also take those 4 over Detroit’s Turner/Smyly/Castellanos (who doesn’t give me the warm fuzzies, not sure why) package. Haven’t been able to hack through the NY hype machine to figure their guys out but I haven’t seen anyone 2-3 guys they could include with Montero OR Banuelos to match. Montero AND Banuelos is a different story… I don’t much care for Middlebrooks, making it hard to see how Boston could top Washington. (I still like Brandon Jacobs but figure Bailey could land him.)
The monster at the end of this blog.
Iglesias and Pimentel?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
As 3rd and 4th pieces along with Bogaerts and Jacobs though?
I also like Ranaudo, Hassan, and Brentz — mostly cause they have names that are fun to say.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
That's #1, #5, #6, and #23 according to Sickels.
Plus, Boston fans get to keep having wet dreams about Middlebrooks. Cecchini might not stick at 3B but his bat should play just fine in the OF. Alcantara has a fuckin-A ceiling and Oakland is known to have liked him.
I mean
How much does he hit in the big leagues? Not being able to handle 3B means he’s going to have to hit pretty well. If he makes it, what’s his batting line?
The monster at the end of this blog.
I dunno. He only had 133 AB, but with 168 wRC+
in low-A. He has a low K-rate and a high BB-rate. His K:BB was 19:17 which is an excellent sign. He also has quite a pretty swing. Sort of Fred McGriff-ish with his little twirl at the end. Both videos below show some opposite field power. Sickels likes the offense, too.
Well!
If he has a pretty, twirly bat…
Boston’s guys gotta run a lot of green to make it. Do you think there’s enough upside to make the extra risk worthwhile?
The monster at the end of this blog.
I have a request
It occurs to me that your proposed Boston package includes B+/B/B/C+ prospects. I really like Jacobs, so for the sake of keeping a B+/B/B-/C+ pattern to compare with other teams, please replace Cecchini with a B- prospect. If that makes you want to swap out Alcantara for another C+ prospect that’s fine as well.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I thought it was fairly reasonable
since it’s better than asking Detroit for their #1, #2, and #5 ranked players. Boston’s B- players are unexciting, save for the ones they drafted in 2011. Sean Coyle was pretty damn good, and I’m pretty sure Oakland is known to have liked Brandon Workman.
Probably Coyle.
Balfour
Could see the A’s adding Balfour in with Gio. The Sox bullpen is much changed from last year. With Paplbone and Wheeler gone. Aceves and Bard might become starters (likely only one if the go Gio). Hill and Jenks got hurt.
If the A’s added Balfour and a few million to make his contract lower or maybe Fuentes and a few million, the A’s might get one more lower prospect and take some of the sting out of the four that the A’s are getting for Gio.
I don't think there's much value in the A's bullpen besides
Bailey and de los Santos right now. I would have no problem trading Balfour, but I don’t think he’d net anybody significant.
Hmm, this intrigues me.
I guess Profar is truly out now, but I still want a SS.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Profar's getting a lotta love from early top 100 lists
I’ve seen him as high as #4 and most have him in top 7. I think you’d be hard pressed to get Texas to give him up in a 1 for 1 with Gio…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 20, 2011 6:08 PM PST up reply actions
Cecchini and Balcom-Miller....
But if we could get Cecchini in addition to Jacobs and Bogaerts, I’d do that regardless of who else is involved.
by infinitejest on Dec 20, 2011 3:50 PM PST up reply actions
Rangers winning the Darvish bid kind of rained on our parade here
I think they would be much more likely to pull the trigger on Gio than the Blue Jays are now. What’s important is to keep in mind that trade doesn’t have to happen now. Teams might be more desperate by mid-season, and 2011 draftees could be included in trade proposals. If it does happen, it could be a “mystery team” situation. I feel like Yankees and Blue Jays have been mentioned so much in these Gio rumors that something would have happened by now if there was a proposal that would satisfy both sides. I like the Cardinals as a possibility, strong farm system and they are apparently quietly looking for pitching.
I love rebuilding.
I tend to think the opposite
Their bid was crazy high, and every indication coming out of Darvish’s camp is that he would be less likely to sign the higher the bid got. Plus, he’s got Nomura as an advisor, who may try to convince him that he can assume he’ll get that extra $50M+ himself if he waits one more year.
Therefore, I think the only way Texas actually signs Darvish is if they are willing to invest well over $100M between their bid and his contract.
Of course, I could be wrong and Texas could be willing to shell that money out, but I think Beane would be wise to try and extend trade talks as long as possible with the hopes that Texas fails to agree to a contract with Darvish and then are willing to pay heavily to get Gonzalez, or at least up another team’s package.
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 20, 2011 6:20 AM PST up reply actions
the Rangers must have calculated this
I’m sure the offer he gets will be north of $100M for 5 years.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 20, 2011 11:38 AM PST up reply actions
That's a whole lotta money they don't have right now
and now they’re talking about extending Napoli?
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 20, 2011 6:08 PM PST up reply actions
Don't they have a lot of money though?
They don’t have a ton of long-term commitments.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 20, 2011 6:11 PM PST up reply actions
According to Ken Rosenthal:
As it happened, ownership made an exception in approving the bid for Darvish. Those financial issues that I wrote about last week — the ones that I reported might steer the Rangers away from the Darvish bidding — were legitimate, sources say. But clearly, something changed.
Full Article
I can’t seem to find this article he wrote last week that he’s referring to, but I’m still looking and will post it as soon as I can find it…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 20, 2011 6:18 PM PST up reply actions
Aha!
Found it:
The team’s payroll flexibility, sources say, is not as significant as many in the industry previously believed.
Link
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 20, 2011 6:21 PM PST up reply actions
Darvish would have to wait three years to get the "extra $50M"
That’s a lot of time/risk.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Wait, I thought he becomes a Free Agent next year?
If that’s not the case, ignore everything I wrote; he’s signing for sure then…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 21, 2011 9:14 PM PST up reply actions
I think Toronto's still probably heavily interested.
There were reports earlier that said they were trying to find a third team’s prospects involved to get the deal done. I also haven’t seen the Cardinals linked to Gonzalez at all, so while I would love to raid that system, I don’t really see it as a possibility right now.
Trades of players with value as high as Gio almost never happen midseason
The bigger the trade, the more each team is going to want to invest in making sure they’ve dotted every i and crossed every t. In the frenzy of the deadline, that’s difficult to do.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I Find This Pretty Crazy
Spending $50,000,000 just to be able to negotiate with Darvish is too much. Haven’t we seen what happens to many Japanese pitchers in the majors? Hideo Nomo, Dasisuke Matsuzaka, Kei Igawa….. They were all payed serious money but ended up not panning out. They had a few good years, and then fell apart. Look at what’s happened to Dice-K now. He signed a contract way over 100 million and has barely pitched the last few seasons.
Interestingly, this seems to be the case more with starters than with relievers.
What makes you think they didn't pan out?
Nomo and Dice-K probably paid for themselves.
Look at the Angels with Pujols. They just signed a TV deal worth $150 million per year, up $100 million from the previous deal. That revenue is twice as much as they’ll spend annually on Pujols and Wilson.
My point in telling that story is that the revenue they generate allows teams to get other players that also help the team.
by Brett Narloch on Dec 20, 2011 8:47 AM PST up reply actions
Dice-K: 10.6 WAR, $103M spent by Boston (51M posting, 52M contract)
yes, there’s the Japanese Fan Effect from signing him, but is it $50M worth of extra revenue? Who knows.
Granted, the Red Sox are in the position where they don’t need to really worry about maximizing $/WAR, so…
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Nobody should be maximizing $/WAR. They should either maximize shareholder value or Wins or World Series titles.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 9:12 AM PST up reply actions
So if you have a choice between a 5 WAR player making $1M and a 5 WAR player making $30M
You don’t care which you take?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
fine, i'll play devil's advocate
i’ll take the 5 war player making 30m.
he puts fans in the seats, barton’s 5 war season sure didn’t.
I'd take the first one whether I'm the Red Sox or the Rays because it would
maximize Shareholder Value other things being equal and would have no impact on Wins or World Series Titles. At no point in my decision making would I divide the annual salary by projected WAR.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 12:53 PM PST up reply actions
It would most certainly have an impact on Wins.
You’d have 29 million dollars LESS to use to try and buy more wins.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
I think underneath it all we're always talking about hookers.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
I'm still not clear on how much of the Japanese Fan Effect money
goes to the team. I know that some foreign broadcasting rights go through MLB directly, in which case it wouldn’t help the individual team, but I haven’t been able to make sense of which is which. Also, I think it makes a difference if you’re a team that also owns its own broadcaster, like the Yankees or Bluejays.
I’d love it if someone would address this question in detail. Like maybe Maury Brown.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
I find it pretty crazy that anyone would pay CJ Wilson $75 million.
Haven’t we seen what happens to many American pitchers in the majors? Barry Zito? Mike Hampton? Carl Pavano? They were all paid serious money but ended up not panning out. They had a few good years, and then fell apart. Look at what’s happened to Wayne Garland now. He signed a contract way over 1 million and has barely pitched the last few decades.
Interestingly, this seems to be the case more with people over 50 than under 50.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 9:05 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Isn't Garland playing in a cornfield in Iowa?
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
That's where the tall corn grows!
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 9:10 AM PST up reply actions
Signing Pitchers To Big Money
For an extended amount of years is usually a bad idea, whether they’re from Japan, the US or Tajikistan. It’s just too much of a risk. In any case, I think 50 million just to be able to negotiate a contract is an outrageous amount of money, but then again, it seems baseball players are always making outrageous amounts of money. I find it sick that a guy could be payed 25 million in one year just to play a professional sport. Free agency is a good thing, but it has really driven up salaries.
Needless to say, giving C.J. Wilson 75 million dollars over 5 years is really stupid and I hope he fails spectacularly. Maybe he might pitch like Scott Kazmir has pitched in the last two years.
by Sean Fortuna on Dec 21, 2011 2:19 AM PST up reply actions
Very Fine Line
That 50+Million goes to the club that owns the player. It is a similar style to what soccer clubs in the USA receive if a team in Europe (or wherever) wants to buy out a player.
Big Money is being handed out to every good MLB Player. Keep in mind: For every player like CJ Wilson, there are 1000’s of players who play professional baseball and never even come close to making it to the Show.
Back to CJ Wilson: It’s a huge risk. If he loses 1-3 MPH’s of the fastball, does he become Frank Tanana or Barry Zito? The one thing he has going for him…. He has only been a starting pitcher in the Bigs for 2 years (708 Innings in the past 7 years). Not too much wear and tear.
by Colorado Fan on Dec 21, 2011 8:07 AM PST up reply actions
There were far too many mentions of CJ Wilson in this post.
And yes as I understand it, if a player is bought from the MLS the money is equally distributed around the league……which sucks for the team that has lost the player, but I don’t make the rules.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
Really?
Alright; I thought that the money went to the player himself, but if it goes o the team, then that’s basically like compensation.
by Sean Fortuna on Dec 22, 2011 2:05 AM PST up reply actions
That's a good comparison.
There are no MLB pitchers from Tajikistan, but surely Scott Kashmir is as close as it gets.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Jeff Bronkey was born in Afghanistan. That's pretty close.
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 21, 2011 9:49 PM PST up reply actions
Yu Darvish will be better than any other Japanese pitcher we've ever seen here
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Unless someone has seen Masaichi Kaneda, Victor Starffin or Kazuhisa Inao
Probably no one posting has seen any of those guys but I like bringing up their names
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 12:56 PM PST up reply actions
Yup
Got to see the guy pitch at the WBC Championship in ‘09.
Consistently hitting 96 on the gun and great control, he looked good then and he’s probably gotten better since…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 21, 2011 10:07 AM PST up reply actions
Roy Oswalt wants 1-yr deal
apparently he wants to prove he’s all healed up to get a longer contract.
I wouldn’t mind the A’s picking him up – perhaps moving him at the trade deadline.
Oswalt 1-yr
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
Oswalt agreeing to 1 year deal impacts the A's and their talks for Gio
Oswalt gives teams yet another option to choose, thus potentially knocking down the A’s asking price.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Not unless we sign him first!
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 20, 2011 11:22 AM PST up reply actions
The A's are going to have to sign somebody
If they deal Gio and Bailey their projected payroll would be below $35 million. MLB raised a stink last year when the Marlins (another welfare receiving team) didn’t want to push their salary above $50 million. Think the A’s get away with a $35 million payroll if MLB is giving ’em $20-25 million?
Methinks not.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I think money will be spent on extension, but not on huge name FAs
This team is a rebuild mode for approx 2-3 years from now, but you never know, when ever one thinks your going to suck – you can always sneak up on some people
Lance "you sunk my" Blankenship
It depends on if the MLB looks at this as a 1 year thing due to the rebuild
I thought that the Marlins got reprimanded because it was becoming a yearly habit to keep the payroll below the amount of revenue sharing they received.
Although I do think the A’s could afford to spend some money on some reclamation projects in the rotation that could have value later.
Well, hey MLB you want us to raise payroll....
Then allow us to build a new friggin’ stadium in San Jose. Until then…. we’ll just sit here, collect welfare and use our Major League team as an extended tryout to see which cheap, young players stick against major league competition because you won’t let us be anything else….
by infinitejest on Dec 20, 2011 1:36 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I actually like that idea.
It’s an indirect way of spending money to support the rebuild. Use money to buy a top pitcher on a one-year deal, thus driving up the price in prospects for Gio. It’s like spending money to buy prospects. And like people have said, some of that money has to be spent to meet the salary cap matching anyway.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Oswalt is an injury risk waiting to happen
10 million – Ben Sheets – how did that work out at the deadline?
Crap, I would rather see Benny Back in an A’s Uni on an incentive contract then oswalt and his back
Lance "you sunk my" Blankenship
Min money spent? Thats crap and why baseball setup is horrible
How can mlb be pissed off a team isn’t spending enough money when the Yanks/Soxs/Angles/Rangers throw some much money out there….Beane and Wolf are the little guy looking up and the gap is widening especially without mlb releasing land for the A’s to build a stadium in hopes to generate some money in an attempt to compete with the big market clubs….
Go for it Beane, use the Marlins plan of action, lets just hope the result are the same in the future
Lance "you sunk my" Blankenship
OK but the Yanks/Soxs/Angles/Rangers are giving money to the A's to spend
on players. Should they not expect that the A’s will actually do that?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 12:58 PM PST up reply actions
i thought it was about appeasing the Player's Union?
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
Probably that too.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 1:03 PM PST up reply actions
The minimum is the money they receive in revenue sharing.
The rule says they have to spend that money on the team, not just pocket it. It’s not an unreasonable request.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
If the rule is that we have to spend it all on the team....
Why not just throw it all at Yoennis Cespedes, younger dominican players or the draft (albeit that is a little more difficult under the new draft rules)… or is there a more limiting sub-rule that revenue sharing must be spent on major league players instead of prospects and player development?
by infinitejest on Dec 20, 2011 1:42 PM PST up reply actions
They negotiated new limits on bonuses played to draft picks in the new CBA
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
I would love to sign Cespedes, but that seems to be a Darvish-like dream.
Get out the time-fracture wickets, Hobbes! We're gonna play Calvinball!
Oswalt's performance in his one year with the A's is not all that important in this consideration.
Sure, if he performs well, you can flip him at the deadline for something, but even if he’s hurt the whole year, you still prevent another team this offseason from signing him and pulling out of the hunt for Gio. Signing him has a positive effect for the A’s no matter how he plays.
Get out the time-fracture wickets, Hobbes! We're gonna play Calvinball!
Plus, if he's good, you can eat his salary and trade him midseason, thus "buying" more prospects
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Somewhere Roy Oswalt laughs
Not the direction the team is going….Roy will be on a contender, last I checked the A’s look like a AAA team
Lance "you sunk my" Blankenship
If he's not getting a lot of attention and is trying to rebuild his value
There are worse places to do it than in Oakland. I think he’d also realize that the A’s would have no problem dealing him to a contender at the break if he has a good first half.
I think Oswalt would probably prefer to go a team that is contending but I haven’t heard much about what the market is like for him.
I seem to remember stuff about oswalt wanting to be around a certain area
texas maybe, or something midwest?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Could the A's be interested in Kuroda if not Oswalt? From Tim Brown:
I heard Monday morning that Kuroda was close to agreeing to a new contract and it wouldn’t be with the Dodgers. The Seattle Mariners said it wasn’t them, and the Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies, Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, among others, answered similarly: "Not us."
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
I'll start paying attention when 20 are eliminated.
[Goes back to regularly scheduled snoozing]
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Dec 20, 2011 1:51 PM PST up reply actions
What, the "among others" throw-in isn't enough for you?
Get out the time-fracture wickets, Hobbes! We're gonna play Calvinball!
Signing Kuroda or Oswalt makes too much sense
Instead we’re gonna let Parker start the season in the bigs…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 20, 2011 6:10 PM PST up reply actions
I would 99.99 percent think NO
Too much money and totally goes against what Beane is doing
Team is gonna have to spend some money though, yes?
Payroll without any new additions, if Gio and Bailey are traded, will sit under $40M…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 20, 2011 6:11 PM PST up reply actions
For those who are still curious about the Washington rumors, Sickels just posted his 2012
list for Nationals prospects. Peacock and Cole both received B’s (both borderline B+), Norris a straight B, and Milone, Hood, and Ray as B-. If Beane’s firm on at least one A-/B+ guy as a requisite for discussions, it looks like a hard sell for Washington.
Guess that means Harper.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Shucks
Just going on the grading system… Cole/Norris/Milone/Hood would net the A’s 2 B prospects and 2 B- prospects. That’s still a solid haul with the potential in Cole and Hood to improve their stock in a year. So there is upside in that mix.
The monster at the end of this blog.
WOW!
I’m just gonna say it “too soon”
1) Bryce Harper, OF, Grade A: 80 power, 80 arm, 80 hype, 80 arrogance…but produces the numbers to back that hype and arrogance up. He is not just a power masher; he’s got great instincts, and I have seen him make adjustments within at-bats more rapidly than most major leaguers can. Even Christopher Hitchens would believe in Harper.
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
I think there's a special exception to the "don't make tasteless jokes about the recently deceased"
for Christopher Hitchens, because he obviously wouldn’t have given a fraction of a shit about people doing it…
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
by PaulThomas on Dec 21, 2011 4:01 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
i'm sure rizzo would be fired over that
The owners goal is to generate fan interest (i live in DC and attend some games). They need players that will create the kind of buzz that can increase ticket sales. Winning is one way and big names is another.
The area absolutely exploded over Stephen Strausburg. Attendance was way up and you could see the ticket surge on nights he was scheduled to pitch. Bryce Harper is their other ace in the hole.
While Gio would certainly help them win, but to guarantee more fans, they need star power.
They can’t wait for Harper to be ready and if he was traded, it would hurt their image with casual fans.
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
They had help from ESPN and MLB with Strasburg
They were showing highlights of his damn minor league starts and slobbering all over him.
They’ve done no such thing with Harper, aside from call him out for being full of himself.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
ESPN?
I feel like they’ve shown a ton of video highlights of him…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 20, 2011 6:12 PM PST up reply actions
Sickels notes, in the comments section, that Cole will likely be adjusted to a B+.....
before grades are finalized. Probably just needs to do more background checking on improvements in stamina questions, etc. before he gave a firm B+.
by infinitejest on Dec 20, 2011 3:18 PM PST up reply actions
cole
I’m about 90% sure he’s going to get a B+ when all is said and done. I got some mixed reports about his changeup and some velocity fluctuations but overall I love the guy. I want to do some comparisons with other guys in the same grade range and see who I like better
by John Sickels on Dec 20, 2011 3:34 PM PST up reply actions
THE MYTH AND THE LEGEND.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Yeah, but he probably doesn't live in his mom's basement, like a few others around here.☺
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
The dream of all ANer statmen!
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
Holy crap, that's sure not my dream.
Be careful what you wish for, kids.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
John Sickels is the Soviet Russia of analysts?
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
FORMER Soviet Russia.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
In Soviet Russia, Sickels evaluates YOU!
And in America too!
Last of the Ninth - Photography
by Flashfire on Dec 21, 2011 5:36 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I was wondering why there wasn't more talk about BOS wanting him
Their rotation is hardly solid.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
But their prospects are nothing to e-mail home about either
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 6:45 PM PST up reply actions
True.
I’d be interested in some combo of Ryan Lavarnway, Jose Iglesias, Drake Britton, and Brandon “Hey, I’m the next Joe Blanton” Workman. In other words, they may have to empty out their system more than they’re willing to, but there’s a package to be made that I think would be doable.
That being said, I’ll be more excited about a Gio deal if it includes a “star potential” OFer or at least a true “A or A-” starting pitching prospect.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Iglesias had a 54 wRC+ last season in AAA. I realize he's young, but sweet holy hell,
nobody’s glove is good enough to overcome that. Britton BB/9 and HR/9 ballooned to 5.07 and 1.11 respectively. Lavarnway is alright but he’s basically an un-hyped version of Jesus Montero. Workman’s alright, but he’s not what you’d want as the second best piece of a deal.
I get the feeling that I’m a bit higher on Boston’s system than a lot of AN’ers, but that’s a bad deal.
I tried explaining that below...
But I just now learned how to use the “reply” feature.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I have. I buy it every year.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
But until you do buy it, check his site first. As well as BP and BA and
whoever else you trust with your prospect analysis.
AN is literally the only online site I read.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
But how many offline sites are you reading
Al Davis 1929-2011 Just rest in peace, baby
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
Follow me on Twitter @FernandoRGallo
I'm not particularly keen to deal Gio at all
If BOS doesn’t have the prospect combo to get a deal done, that’s fine. I guess those guys looked better a year ago than they do now.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
They do have some very good prospects. One excellent one in Bogaerts.
Like I said, I’m higher on Boston’s system than most people. But I think there is definitely a deal to be done if they’re willing to part with Bogaerts.
I can't tell if it's just prejudice based on physique,
but I’m having a hard time thinking of someone who resembles Joe Blanton any less in my mind than Brandon Workman.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I was just looking at (based on Sickels' description),
“#3-#4 starter, innings eater, throws strikes, hittable…” Reminded me of Blanton, sans the 7-course meals.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
If only there was a place where you could read about prospects on SB Nation
Or you could have read the part of this thread where NateHST and I talk about what kind of package Boston could put together.
You just offered to trade Gio for 1 B prospect, 2 B- prospects and a C prospect.
The monster at the end of this blog.
It's a sneaky little bastard sometimes.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Yankees still looking for a SP
Unwilling to part with Montero, Betances, or Banueles?
I think we can still be trade partners with them:
1) Mason Williams, OF (Projected Sickles grade: B+)
2) Gary Sanchez, C (Projected Sickles grade: B+)
3) David Phelps, RHP (Projected SIckles Grade: B-)
4) Ravel Santana, CF (Projected Sickles Grade: B-) – INTL signing…not sure how that works in trades….need to be PTBNL??
I would be more than happy with that package as Phelps is most MLB ready, Williams, Sanchez, and Santana all need at least another 2-3 years in the minors (Sanchez being the closest to ready)
Thoughts?
C'mon Beane! Close off the bottom deck and reopen the top!
You're looking for a peanut butter and jelly sandwich?
Great. I’m just unwilling to part with peanut butter, jelly, or bread. Let’s talk!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Really just projections based on sickles August review of his 2011 pre season grades
Sanchez and Phelps I kept at B+ and B-, respectively. Ravel Santana had a great year but, as Waddell mentioned below, got injured at the end of the year.
Mason Williams is highly regarded. B+ surely is aggressive, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Sickels moved him up to the B/B+ range.
C'mon Beane! Close off the bottom deck and reopen the top!
Big gap between B and B+
I think your prediction is too aggressive.
And the Yanks seem willing to part with one of Montero/Banueles… just not both.
(Betances will end up in the pen, don’t want.)
The monster at the end of this blog.
Agreed
I think Mason Williams is a solid second target behind one of those two, Montero or Banueles.
C'mon Beane! Close off the bottom deck and reopen the top!
I think most of the Yankees prospects have decent upsides, but they all have such
large warts. They scare me. And the Yankees prospect hype machine scares me just as much. I would much rather do business with Toronto.
This
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 21, 2011 1:25 AM PST up reply actions
Why do you think he'll end up in the pen? Does he not have a plus FB and Curve?
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 21, 2011 7:16 AM PST up reply actions
He has good stuff but awful control and has had mediocre results.
He’s had one year (besides 23.1 innings in 2007 in rookie ball) where he’s been able to keep his BB/9 below 4.00, and that was the only time he’s been remotely dominant. I suppose his overall minor league numbers are comparable to Gio Gonzalez’s, so you could make the case that he’s worth it, but it’s still very risky.
I think successful big league SP need at least 3 pitches
And like NateHST said, his control ain’t been the greatest.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Sandy Koufax disagrees that you need at least 3 pitches
I doubt most MLB starters have 3 plus pitches. In fact it would be mathematically very unlikely. The control thing may doom him but then again it might not.
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 21, 2011 10:12 AM PST up reply actions
well if you have a plus FB and plus curve, you have the best combo already.
You can learn a halfway decent changeup and throw it situationally, or add a different type of fb, etc.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 21, 2011 10:17 AM PST up reply actions
I didn't say 3 PLUS pitches
I said 3 pitches. The third pitch can be average.
And Sandy Koufax was pitching in the Show at 19.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Basically you need to be able to get through the lineup 3 times.
How you do that isn’t as important as whether you can do it. One way is to have 3 at least average pitches but it’s not the only way. In any case the control thing may stop him from being able to do it.
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 21, 2011 10:41 AM PST up reply actions
I don't think Betances has the control to get by with just 2 pitches
The monster at the end of this blog.
Do you have any idea how Betances is pronounced?
I’ve been following him for a few years and still not sure how to properly pronounce his last name…
It's a Hispanic name, so I would assume
standard Spanish pronunciation, ie “beh-TAHN-sess”.
It’s a variation of Betanzos, which is a region of Galicia, in northwestern Spain.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Right, the control is a definite problem
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 21, 2011 9:41 PM PST up reply actions
Sickels called Williams a B- or maybe a B in August
Phelps was a B- before getting hurt
Santana suffered a horrific ankle injury and may not be back in time for ST
I want Montero and Banuelos for Gio, thanks.
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 9:54 PM PST up reply actions
Did not realize Phelps and Santana suffered injuries, appreciate the update.
I read this article:
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2011/12/01/sweeny-meet-yankees-phenom-mason-williams/
Scouts think very highly of Mason Williams. “Williams could actually be better than Montero because of his potential as a Gold Glove centerfielder”.
C'mon Beane! Close off the bottom deck and reopen the top!
Where exactly does Montero fit? Sure we can stick him at DH as his bat is at the elite level, but his value sinks a tad as he probably won’t stick anywhere in the field.
Mason williams could be the lower tier minor league outfield prospect that Beane covets.
C'mon Beane! Close off the bottom deck and reopen the top!
I'd stick him at 1B
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 21, 2011 7:14 AM PST up reply actions
I'd trade Suzuki...
And play Montero at C (50 games), 1B platoon w/ Allen (50 Games) & DH (50 games). Do what the Rangers have been doing with Napoli. Keeping him fresh to play C in meaningful games (PLAYOFFS?).
Powell, Donaldson can eat up the other 112 games.
by Colorado Fan on Dec 21, 2011 8:15 AM PST up reply actions
Well... why trade Suzuki?
If Montero is only going to catch 50 games than I’d rather have Suzuki behind the plate the other 112 times than waste two roster spots on Powell and Donaldson.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I'm trying to lower the payroll
So the Dominican Republic will unite with Oakland for Ultimate Exclusivity Rights (UER) :)
by Colorado Fan on Dec 21, 2011 11:33 AM PST up reply actions
Thing is though, I could see Sickels giving Montero a B grade based on this year's performance
I’d rather stick with someone who’s shown signs of improvement, not struggling repeating a level and will probably not last at C much longer…
Personally, I don’t want to deal with the NYY anyway, but if we had to, I’d take Betances, Banuelos and maybe Williams and someone else…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 21, 2011 12:19 AM PST up reply actions
Doubt it.
Sickels was saying Montero was “bored” at the AAA level…
With the Yankees: 996 OPS (69 PA)
by Colorado Fan on Dec 21, 2011 8:17 AM PST up reply actions
He also had a .400 BABIP and posted an ISO higher than he's ever posted before.
It’s possible that he was just waiting until he made it to the majors to show off his true potential, but I tend to doubt it. And if that’s true, he’s probably an idiot. I think the Fans projection for him on FanGraphs is probably fair: .284/.347/.490 with 22 HR, which would be excellent as a 22-year old with room to improve.
There’s still reason to worry about his defensive home, but it’s worth noting that Sickels gave him an A before 2011 knowing full well of his defensive woes.
Which
Would make him an A-/B+ Prospect no doubt.
by Colorado Fan on Dec 21, 2011 11:34 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah, because being "bored" explains performance
all I know is, if I was frustrated or bored I would try even harder, not act lazily.
I realize that saying Montero will be a B grade prospect now may not be how the experts view him, but personally, that’s were I see him.
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 21, 2011 10:10 AM PST up reply actions
Hey now
I’m just going off of what other Professional Scouts are saying. We are dealing with human beings and all. Could get a little frustrating to be a prospect in the NYY Farm system seeing that Posada lasted as long as he did.
by Colorado Fan on Dec 21, 2011 11:36 AM PST up reply actions
I wasn't directing that at you
More that these scouts are using that as an excuse because they still like him going forward, and because they’ve got to continue to hype the next “great Yankee.”
I’d rather they own up and just say he had a bad year but they think he’ll be more of the player we saw in 2010 than 2011.
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 21, 2011 9:33 PM PST up reply actions
Hah, yeah, that's how I feel about it.
If you’re in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and you see Jorge Posada struggling through a season with a .235 batting average, I’d see it as an opportunity and not a punishment. That’s why I mentioned below that if it’s actually true that he was just “bored,” he sounds like an idiot.
An Idiot?
You’ve never been behind someone in something/anything, knowing damn well you are the best person for the position. It’s Frustration. Not boredom. Not idiocy.
by Colorado Fan on Dec 21, 2011 6:51 PM PST up reply actions
He wasn't kept in AAA as long as he was because Posada was keeping him down.
He was kept in AAA because an .843 OPS isn’t that great for a top prospect.
OK
My point is this… He’s not a “B” prospect. Not even close.
by Colorado Fan on Dec 22, 2011 11:51 AM PST up reply actions
If he was in the A's organization
I think he would be.
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 22, 2011 12:50 PM PST up reply actions
There are no A's in A's
:-(
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
I should add I've been rather bearish on Montero for awhile
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 21, 2011 12:21 AM PST up reply actions
I don't blame you for being bearish on Montero.
The theory I’ve read most often is that he was just bored (which is a poor excuse for his performance) in AAA—not that it was bad, but it wasn’t good enough to warrant his hype. And there’s no way Montero gets a B from Sickels.
Montero might get taken down a notch
But not all the way down to B status.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I forgot he was A/A- last year
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 21, 2011 10:06 AM PST up reply actions
Blue Jay package...
Would this get it done?
Marisnick B+
Snydergaard B+
McGuire B+
Hechavarria C+
Sure, that could work
But I’d also argue it’s more than Cincy gave up to acquire Latos and I’m not sure Gio justifies a larger return.
The monster at the end of this blog.
It's more only if you think Volquez is a negative
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 21, 2011 10:09 AM PST up reply actions
And this deal has two B+, and 2 C+. Seems pretty similar, no?
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 21, 2011 10:15 AM PST up reply actions
Ah, I see. Sorry I had read the part below and didn't parse the difference correctly
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 21, 2011 10:42 AM PST up reply actions
I think the Blue Jays hesitate on that one...
Maybe keep Marisnick and Syndergaard. Replace McGuire with a C+. Drop Hechavarria too and replace him too.
Marisnick B+
Syndergaard B+
Krecht C+
Sierra C+
I’d be happy with that.
by Maverick10126 on Dec 21, 2011 9:15 AM PST up reply actions
I think I would too...
If the A’s could get 2 of McGuire, Hechavarria, Krecht, or Sierra I’d be happy.
by Brett Narloch on Dec 21, 2011 9:19 AM PST up reply actions
McGuire is ranked higher, but Krecht and Sierra seem to fit what Beane is looking for...
High up-side OFs.
by Brett Narloch on Dec 21, 2011 9:20 AM PST up reply actions
They certainly fit what I'm looking for. Beane may well prefer McGuire
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 21, 2011 10:10 AM PST up reply actions
Forget Deck and the shortstop.
I’d ask for Moises Sierra and Matt Dean as a PTBNL.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 21, 2011 9:23 AM PST up reply actions
MLBtraderumors did an update on Gio....
Just saying the Nationals are making a strong push for Gio and the A’s are looking at Peacock and Norris as two of the players in a 4 for 1 deal.
I dunno, it's an ok package in my mind (assuming the other 2 guys are B-/C+ guys), but not as impressive as I'd hoped
I’d like to see a 3rd team get involved and see what Beane could do…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 21, 2011 10:12 AM PST up reply actions
Just don't see it
Unless we wait till late JAN and add some PTBNL’s
Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.
Yea but it also says Toronto and Boston are 'heavily in the mix'
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
but the Nats
are the only one’s desperately going after Gio.
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
uh
According to Ladson, Brad Peacock and Derek Norris are two of the players the Athletics are looking at in a possible four-for-one deal. Nothing is imminent yet, as the Blue Jays and Red Sox are also “heavily in the mix.”
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Jays, Yes! Sox, Okay..... Nats... no... unless its Harper (and it won't be)
Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.
It really doesn't. I'd want at least one potential star here, and I'm not seeing one.
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 21, 2011 10:42 AM PST up reply actions
Have to say I agree. Honestly, if the Nationals are making trading for Gio a "top priority"
Beane should just ask for Harper.
"I think what baseball projects, and what classical music needs, is the sense that one goes to a live event not to experience greatness, but to experience the possibility of greatness.... Not every game is great but what we go for is the chance that this particular game might be.' —David Lang
by King Richard on Dec 21, 2011 10:44 AM PST up reply actions
Peacock looks interesting....
But he’s not as interesting as some of the other names in other packages.
by Maverick10126 on Dec 21, 2011 10:45 AM PST up reply actions
ACCUSATION!
Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.
by Zonis on Dec 21, 2011 11:55 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
"Mwahaha! My plan to frame Peacock is working!"
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Damn, I wish Rendon could be dealt already, and was available in a deal
That would overwhelmingly make me go for a Washington package…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 21, 2011 9:35 PM PST up reply actions
Without a true A or A- probably available
I would demand Norris, Cole, and Peacock, along with Lombardazzizizizizi. And I’d take that deal.
Still doesn't address the need for future OF help though
by Maverick10126 on Dec 21, 2011 10:51 AM PST up reply actions
True
But I’m not dealing for need. If someone else is offering a deal equal in value with OFs involved, I would take that. But overall, I’m taking the most talent ed package possible.
Just not sure where another 2B fits...
Speaking of 2B, shouldn’t we be trying to unload Cardenas somewhere. I’d like to start seeing some prospect for prospect trades as well.
by Maverick10126 on Dec 21, 2011 10:58 AM PST up reply actions
nowhere currently
until Jemile Weeks inevitably gets hurt. And honestly, I wouldn’t rule him out of SS and 3b. Don’t get me wrong, he is a distant fourth piece in that deal, but I as of very recently used to live in DC and got to see him play a few times. And I just liked watching him play.
Cardenas may be a utility guy at best now
I wouldn’t be surprised to see him work some SS in Spring Training and come up if and when Rosales struggles again…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 21, 2011 9:38 PM PST up reply actions
my impression
is that the Nats don’t have the horses but are flailing about trying to make it work. Jays/Sox are the real contenders.
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
Haven't heard too much from the Tigers lately...
Is it safe to assume Gio is down to 3 teams? Boston, Toronto and Washington?
by Maverick10126 on Dec 21, 2011 10:53 AM PST up reply actions
Trading Gio is a weird thing. Why not wait until they are definitely going to lose him before trading him?
At this point our team is gonna suck, we will get a high draft pick, we have Choice and Gray coming in 2013, having Gio on our team in 2013 might actually be better than re-stocking with prospect gambles.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 21, 2011 11:36 AM PST up reply actions
New Stadium = 2016
Gio gone = 2015… and you just paid Gio 30M in non-competitive years. If I was an owner of the Athletics (cough, Beane, cough), I’d trade Gio and keep Dallas Braden to mentor the young pitching staff.
by Colorado Fan on Dec 21, 2011 11:41 AM PST up reply actions
Gio's money during those years
Although wouldn’t Gio still be here in 2015. He has 4 years of club control left doesn’t he?
by Maverick10126 on Dec 21, 2011 11:54 AM PST up reply actions
$30M over 4 years is a bargain for a frontline starter.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 21, 2011 1:07 PM PST up reply actions
Plus Gio is a Super2
If he performs like he has (and as he’s predicted by teams looking to trade for him), he’s gonna get paid something like:
2012: 3M
2013: 6M
2014: 8M
2015: 12M
by Colorado Fan on Dec 21, 2011 6:56 PM PST up reply actions
They value his good looks in jeans
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 21, 2011 10:43 AM PST up reply actions
While we're considering the Rangers' packages.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
I'd take that...
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 21, 2011 9:39 PM PST up reply actions
I don't think Beane would, especially since the gap between that option and what the A's
asked for was Martin Perez and Leury Garcia.
I meant to start
Olt and at least one other prospect, of course…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 22, 2011 11:43 AM PST up reply actions
Realistic proposals involving Washington
Figure Harper and the 2011 draft class aren’t in the discussion then the max 4 player package Oakland could ask for (based on Sickels grading system and upside) would be:
Cole (B+)
Peacock (B)
Norris (B)
Hood (B-)
I would argue that that is a slightly better package than SD got for Latos (B+/B+/B-/C+ with Volquez). But I’m not sure how willing any GM would be to part with his top 2 SP prospects.
Remove Cole from the equation and it looks something like this:
Peacock (B)
Norris (B)
Hood (B-)
Milone (B-)
You can substitute a different B- prospect for Milone, but aside from Solis (elbow) and Ray (mixed scouting reports) there isn’t much in the way of upside plays. I’d argue that this deal would be roughly equal to what SD acquired. But it also lacks the upside that Oakland NEEDS to be seeking.
So put Cole back in the mix:
Cole (B+)
Norris (B)
Hood (B-)
Taylor (C+)
Taylor is probably the highest ceiling C+ in Washington’s system. I’d also say this package is slightly less than what SD acquired.
Best case scenario (Realistic Division):
Cole (B+)
Peacock (B)
Hood (B-)
Taylor (C+)
Cole projects to a possible #1/2 SP. Peacock is a #3, maybe a #2 with a little luck. Hood maxes out as a power hitting LF with average defense. Hood could be a 20-20 CF.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Dec 21, 2011 12:26 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
If you're right about these packages...
Then I’m ok with the trade.
These all seem pretty good. A rotation of Anderson, Parker, Cole, Peacock, and Ross/Braden/??? in the next year or 2 looks pretty solid to me.
A trade like these – pitching heavy – would then narrow down Bailey’s target, which would be a hitter. Olt?
by Brett Narloch on Dec 21, 2011 12:39 PM PST up reply actions
Cole won't be ready until mid-2014 at the earliest
More like 2015. He needs to build his stamina.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I like this deal....
Gives a nice solid rotation going forward with a couple of high upside OF’s. We still have Bailey drawing interest that we can hopefully use to get another hitter for the system.
by Maverick10126 on Dec 21, 2011 12:40 PM PST up reply actions
Great write up grover!
I’d love to see you do something similar for Toronto and Boston.
by Maverick10126 on Dec 21, 2011 12:43 PM PST up reply actions
A's add in another piece along with gio
Sweeney
balfour
donaldson
cardenas
do a 6 for 2 deal
by J.J. Miller on Dec 21, 2011 12:44 PM PST up reply actions
Harper and Strasburg, obviously.
"I think what baseball projects, and what classical music needs, is the sense that one goes to a live event not to experience greatness, but to experience the possibility of greatness.... Not every game is great but what we go for is the chance that this particular game might be.' —David Lang
by King Richard on Dec 21, 2011 12:50 PM PST up reply actions
OK... I'll part with Sweeney but if they ask for Cardenas as well the whole deal is off!
The monster at the end of this blog.
That's ridiculous! Sweeney alone is worth Harper/Strasburg PLUS!
"I think what baseball projects, and what classical music needs, is the sense that one goes to a live event not to experience greatness, but to experience the possibility of greatness.... Not every game is great but what we go for is the chance that this particular game might be.' —David Lang
by King Richard on Dec 21, 2011 12:56 PM PST up reply actions
Seriously, though... if they're going to try compete for the division in 2012...
They may want to have Balfour or Sweeney around.
by Brett Narloch on Dec 21, 2011 12:54 PM PST up reply actions
I think what grover wrote up is the best we can get out of Washington...
With those trade chips we’re not going to get any 2 additional players that will really be worth anything. Might as well take them to another team and see if they have low level prospects we’d be interested in.
by Maverick10126 on Dec 21, 2011 12:50 PM PST up reply actions
Do the Nats need bullpen help?
Balfour could be a good throw-in to sweeten a deal.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 21, 2011 1:09 PM PST up reply actions
This is an excellent summary of the trade situation with the Nationals
and my take on it is that the A’s shouldn’t trade Gio to the Nationals. Even the though Washington might be the team with the most desire to trade for Gio, and thus the most potential for overpay, to me it seems clear that the A’s need to put their best bets in position players. Counting on pitchers to be both healthy and good in 2015 is a dangerous bet. Not only are pitchers extremely risky assets, they also tend to get worse, not better. Particularly Peacock seems to be the type of player the A’s should not make the centerpiece of the deal, as it’s not unreasonable to assume that his best years will probably be 2013-2014.
The fact is, although this haul might be the best haul, I don’t think it is the right haul. And because the A’s hold all the marbles with Gio, I think they should either use Washington as leverage to get the most from Toronto or perhaps Boston/Detroit, or they should wait until someone is ready to overpay with a B+/A-/A position player prospect.
Or ask for Harper.
"I think what baseball projects, and what classical music needs, is the sense that one goes to a live event not to experience greatness, but to experience the possibility of greatness.... Not every game is great but what we go for is the chance that this particular game might be.' —David Lang
by King Richard on Dec 21, 2011 12:54 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
We do hold all the marbles with Gio...
But I don’t believe in those marbles as much as everyone else. Gio could turn into a Pumpkin…or into Zito. Either way, the walk rate has the potential to blow up in his face one day.
by Maverick10126 on Dec 21, 2011 12:59 PM PST up reply actions
But it could...
I know I’m looking at a glass half empty situation here. But all of Zito’s problem cropped up once his fastball lost a few ticks. All his other pitches stopped being as effective and his control problems were exposed. Gio reminds me so much of Zito. It’d be a shame for that to happen and for us to have lost all value Gio has today.
by Maverick10126 on Dec 21, 2011 1:08 PM PST up reply actions
if gio lost a couple of ticks, he'd still be throwing harder than zito basically ever did.
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
Couldn't agree more
I’m jiggy with “strictly BPA” for the draft but not for rebuilding trades. In rebuilding trades I’d go maybe 85% “BPA,” but also feel free to lean towards position players to mitigate risk. I don’t want to see Cahill and Gio net only top pitching prospects, and not top hitting prospects, because the chance of a total flame out is just too high.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
20-20 CF for Hood...
that would be pretty damn awesome.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 21, 2011 1:11 PM PST up reply actions
I'd never heard of Hood until today
Gotta say, I’m very intrigued, his stat line last year makes me think of what we were hoping for Rashun Dixon…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 21, 2011 9:42 PM PST up reply actions
Good writeup.
I’ve already explained my obsession with Milone, and in your second proposal, I think they’d the Nationals would be hesitant to trade two MLB-ready pitchers for Gonzalez. I know he’s better than both of them, but it’s sacrificing very valuable and necessary depth.
I’d prefer Cole over Peacock anyway.
Cole (B+)
Norris (B)
Milone (B-)
Taylor or Hood (C+ or B-, respectively)
I see the reports mention Oakland likes Peacock in the deal, so what I said is probably moot. Either way, I still think Toronto and an OF/SP package (Marisnick/Gose, Syndergaard/Hutchinson/Nicolino/McGuire) is the best way to go.
The reports just say Peacock and Norris are in the discussion
Which, of course, they would be!
Doing a write up on toronto is going to take some time. Lots of variations.
The monster at the end of this blog.
grover... I haven't posted in quite a while but I always enjoy reading your posts..
I read today where Jon Heyman is saying that anyone other than Harper and Strasburg are available including Cole (A.J. Cole), Peacock, Norris, Hood and Perez.
I am not sure how high Perez is on their prospect list or if Taylor is better.
Question I have is would Hood or Perez be the level of OF we would need or just fill in?
http://jon-heyman.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/33714192/33983141
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
Eury Perez is fast but has less power than Ryan Sweeney.
Destin Hood and Michael Taylor represent a lot more upside. Hood’s a bit more polished but according to grover, Taylor has a higher ceiling (I don’t know much about him). Although, neither of them are world-beaters right now. If you want require an outfielder as a significant piece of the Gonzalez deal, you probably want Jake Marisnick or Anthony Gose from Toronto, or Brandon Jacobs from Boston.
Or maybe Mason Williams from NYY (Sickels said he'd be a B- or B, probably).
He’s far away and doesn’t have much power yet, either. He’s probably closer to Hood or Taylor than Gose or Marisnick.
Thanks
I would enjoy reading a post by you that has the best packages we (The A’s) could get from Toronto, NYY, Boston and the Nationals… and any other team that is really in this race to trade for Gio.
I would think that we would trade for a top pitching prospect (or as near that as possible) and OF with power and two others possibly for 3B or even another, younger, starting pitcher.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
agree.....I think Beane is just Baiting Toronto to throw something out there huge
by causing the Washington Nats rumors…..Toronto is were we want to trade Gio
Lance "you sunk my" Blankenship
I've come to believe in Boston too if Bogaerts is involved.
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 21, 2011 9:36 PM PST up reply actions
Sure, no prob
Especially since I got sooo many rec’s on this last post…
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Dec 21, 2011 7:25 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I think I'd want Goodwin in any trade with Washington
I don’t think I’d make any deal short of Cole, Peacock, Goodwin and one of Hood/Taylor/Norris. None of these guys really excite me and therefore I’d want more “value” than I would from another organization.
BTW do you think Hood can really play CF?
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 21, 2011 9:36 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, I think if a deal looks "objectively good" but doesn't excite you,
it’s not enough for Gio. For Cahill, sure. But for Gio, a cost-controlled pitcher for 4 years, still fairly cheap, coming off two solid seasons, you need to get the deal that excites you, not one you squint at and go, “…Yeah that works.”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'm with you there.
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 21, 2011 10:10 PM PST up reply actions
Is there a limit to the # of 25/40 man roster moves you can make in a month?
‘Cos here’s an idea – Beane should pick the team from the stands every game.
Admittedly we might struggle to field a team on some away trips, but I don’t think it’ll matter in the long run.
This plan would allow him to trade EVERYONE away and protect the service time of the newly acquired players.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
Rickey would be in the 1st row...."pick me Billy - I can still play"
and he can probably still play better then most of our roster come next season
Lance "you sunk my" Blankenship
Well Boston is still interested in both Gio and Bailey so...
What if they give this up:
Bogaerts (B+/A-)
Lavarnaway (B)
Middlebrooks (B)
Jacobs (B)
Workman (B-)
Doubt Billy would do it, but is that a legit value package?
I'd rather have Cecchini than Middlebrooks, and I'd do it without Workman and Lavarnaway if
they added a high ceiling guy like Alcantara. I think your deal is too much value for the Red Sox to give up for Gio, and too little upside for a team rebuilding from scratch like Oakland.
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 21, 2011 9:40 PM PST up reply actions
Is it possible that the A's best avenue is just to simplify with BOS
and work a one-for-one with Bailey, and deal Gio to WAS or TOR? Of Bogaerts, Lavarnaway, Middlebrooks, Cecchini, Jacobs, could Bailey command one of them in return? BOS might be more apt to trade “a good then for a good now” considering they missed the playoffs entirely last season.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Out of all the guys on the Red Sox, Jays or Nats I'd want Boegarts -- not including
Harper or Strasburg. I don’t think Bailey alone gets you him. The secondary pieces are a lot more interchangeable for me.
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 21, 2011 10:09 PM PST up reply actions
I know Beane won't go after him
but I still really like Reddick and wish we could get him from the Sox. I think he’s gonna end up being a really solid 3-4 WAR OF for awhile.
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 21, 2011 10:17 PM PST up reply actions
I wouldn't trade
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 22, 2011 11:47 AM PST up reply actions
Gio for a 3-4 win guy. Bailey, sure.
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 22, 2011 11:47 AM PST up reply actions
As a piece of the pie, not the whole thing
I’m saying I hope Beane has asked about Reddick in discussions, because a package including him, Bogaerts and possibly Middlebrooks would be incredible.
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 22, 2011 12:51 PM PST up reply actions
I agree with WC.
The Boston guy I want is Bogaerts, and Bailey alone is not enough for him.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
I wonder what is - Bailey & Balfour?
Suddenly a vulnerable bullpen becomes a very strong one (with Melancon as well) even if Bard moves to the rotation, and especially if he doesn’t.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Generally speaking,
I don’t think you get a top prospect by adding lesser bits to the veteran side of a trade.
That tends to work for adding extra prospects to get a veteran, but not the other way around.
I’d do your trade, though. I’d try to put a second guy on the other side, but it wouldn’t have to be anyone good. So Bailey+Balfour → Bogaerts and some junky C prospect (preferably one whose name starts with B!).
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Bryce Brentz!
A “C” prospect with a “B” name.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'm sold.
Bailey and Balfour to Boston for Bogaerts and Bryce Brentz.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
(and a big bag of balls)
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Is that is Bryce Brentz's scouting report?
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
I think we'd get more value trading the 2 separately
In order to deal both together, I’m assuming Beane has gotta be asking for an A/A- guy to headline the deal…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 21, 2011 9:44 PM PST up reply actions
going forward
Do the A’s need to be concerned with the 40-man roster size, this season and next season? While they lose players with this new infusion of players? In effect the A’s will likely be trading Gio, Cahill and Bailey for 9 players. While likely most will not need to be protected on the 40 this winter, while added to the players that will need to be added from the minors that have grown. I would hate to see guys lost in the rule 5 or cut. It may be that a few of the young players are good for a while, but all three players from the Cahill deal had to be added to the 40 man.
Hmm.
Gordon Edes is reporting Red Sox very much involved on Gio Gonzalez, so it may be OAK now choosing between BOS and WASH offers.
Is it bad if I still prefer a deal with Toronto?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
No because Edes might be unaware of them
They’re in Canada after all
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 22, 2011 11:48 AM PST up reply actions
I'm still hoping for Toronto too
Get out the time-fracture wickets, Hobbes! We're gonna play Calvinball!
by UrgentMirth on Dec 22, 2011 11:55 AM PST up reply actions
Is it bad that I still want Profar?
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
"Pro far pro good."
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
is it bad
Is it bad to not believe any sportswriter? Hard to feel confident that any team is out, until the deal is made. spin, spin spin…………
spin the black circles
Rosenthal has been on so far this offseason
He’s broken a ton of stuff so far this year and I’ve yet to see him make too many mistakes, or make any definitive statements that are wrong, as Buster so often tends to do.
“Heard this.”
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 22, 2011 12:52 PM PST up reply actions
If we trade Gio to the Nats
We better be getting Cole, Peacock, and Norris (plus 1 or 2 others). If Cahill got an A- prospect, there’s got to at least be some qauntity of B/B+ in the Gio deal if there is no A-/A prospect.
You know you are big-time when people chant your name while you pee. - 67MARQUEZ
Damn straight. Also I'd insist that Goodwin be one of the others.
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 22, 2011 12:20 PM PST up reply actions
It's not going to happen. The rumors about a trade being close and happening today
wouldn’t be flying if they were going to wait until January to name Goodwin as a PTBNL.
How about another Michael Taylor?
That’d be great to have to two Michael Taylor’s in the OF someday….as long as they both can actually play of course.
by Maverick10126 on Dec 22, 2011 12:25 PM PST up reply actions
Keith Law tweet says it's
those three plus Milone. Link
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Just feels like this will happen today
Haren Trade = Dec 14th
Hudson Trade = Dec 17th
Cliff Lee/Michael Taylor Trade = Dec 17th
Mulder Trade = Dec 18th
Swisher Trade = Jan 3rd
Beane usually takes X-Mas Vacation sooner than this… I sense Fireworks.
by Colorado Fan on Dec 22, 2011 12:29 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
So independent of what we're hoping for,
what do folks think the most likely deal is if it’s Gio—>WAS and if it’s Gio—>BOS?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
We haven't heard any names thrown around in a Gio-to-Boston scenario, so I don't even know
where to begin speculating in that situation. I would hope for Bogaerts, Jacobs, and some combination of two B-/C+ prospects (I threw out the names Coyle and Alcantara yesterday, which would still be fine with me). I’m sure they would discuss Middlebrooks, too. In all likelihood, Boston ends up with Bailey instead.
From Washington, it’s probably similar to what was posted directly above me. Norris should definitely be involved, and there is no alternative. Cole or Peacock. Hood or Taylor. And maybe Ray or Milone?
How's Middlebrooks defense?
He seems to have some trouble taking walks, and last thing we need is another Kouzmanoff type at the hot corner…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 22, 2011 12:54 PM PST up reply actions
Is this unrealistic?
(it’s what I’d hope for too, but well…)
Cole (B+)
Peacock (B)
Norris (B)
Hood (B-)
You know you are big-time when people chant your name while you pee. - 67MARQUEZ
woops
meant to be reply to Nico above
You know you are big-time when people chant your name while you pee. - 67MARQUEZ
by bakerbeachboy on Dec 22, 2011 12:52 PM PST up reply actions
Rosenthal's saying Boston's trying to get Gio and Bailey
in a “monster deal.” That would be a damn interesting looking deal. He also said the Rays are in on Bailey.
Woah, wonder what the package would be... Boston's Top 10 List?
Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.
as an outsider observer
hard for me to think of what deal the Red Sox could offer for Bailey and Gonzalez that would likely be more enticing than grabbing a top arm or two, if possible, from Washington. I might be in the minority, but I’m not too enamored with the Red Sox system right now, and there simply aren’t many arms available that are enticing (Barnes can’t be moved and I have high doubts they’d agree to PTBNL). I guess if you are solely looking for positional assets, then Boston has a slight advantage, but even then, it’s not like Washington doesn’t have some solid positional pieces to balance out with their better arm options.
I guess this assumes
that the rumors of the Nationals willing to pony up a couple top propsects are true.
I just think it makes more sense to shop them separately.
Assuming guys like Bogaerts and Cecchini make it into the deal...I'd rather do that than anything plausible from Washington.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 22, 2011 12:52 PM PST up reply actions
Same. The WAS packages all leave me feeling underwhelmed.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
out of curiousity
since I don’t follow the A’s on a regular basis and you guys have long threads here, why was the rumored WAS package underwhelming? If the rumors are true and a guy like Cole is available, that’s a better arm than anyone the Red Sox could pony up.
Personally I'm more keen to get a "potential future star" position player at this point,
having gotten nothing of the kind in the Cahill deal. If all your best prospects are pitchers, the odds of a total flameout is just too high. And If we’re targeting a top young pitcher, I’d just as soon go after Turner in a package from DET, where you might also get Castellanos in the deal.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
fair enough
if the focus is positional assets, then Washington is behind Boston as Rendon can’t be moved until late and there’s no way, I think, that any team would agree to a PTBNL situation like that (with his medical history) (though I’m not nearly as high on Bogaerts as others – the above Edes article seems to suggest that Xander wasn’t available in a Gio deal, though).
bleh
accidentally hit enter … though I still think it’d be more prudent to deal Gonzalez to Boston by himself, and package Bailey in another deal, unless, the market is really that thin on teams loooking at Bailey.
Good question. Here's the answer:
In recent history — ie, the last 10 years or so — the A’s have always had plenty of good pitching. But even with great pitching, the team has sucked for much of that time due to terrible hitting.
As a result, A’s fans are really hungry for hitting, but it’s hard to get us excited about pitching. As an outside observer, you probably value good pitching prospects as much as good hitting prospects. A few here do that as well, but the A’s fanbase as a whole tends to crave hitters more than pitchers.
That’s why we’re not as excited about the Washington package as you think we ought to be.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
We have sucked for the last 10 years or so?
by Colorado Fan on Dec 22, 2011 1:26 PM PST up reply actions
No. We have had great pitching for the last 10 years.
The team has sucked for much of that time.
I’m pretty sure I said it right the first time.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
OK
Guess I see the last 10 years in a different light.
by Colorado Fan on Dec 22, 2011 1:37 PM PST up reply actions
Absolutely
I like those 2 quite a bit. Them and Reddick and one of their B pitchers and I’m in…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 22, 2011 12:56 PM PST up reply actions
A puppy dies every time an A's fan thinks Reddick is worth acquiring.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 22, 2011 12:59 PM PST up reply actions
I'd love to hear why he's not
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 22, 2011 1:03 PM PST up reply actions
No one thinks he's more than a 3rd/4th outfielder....hit .243/.300/.449 in 184 AAA games
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 22, 2011 1:06 PM PST up reply actions
I have to agree and shouldn't have included his name in one of my lists
He’s a “solid player,” potentially, but as such is exactly what the A’s DON’T want — a Sweeney type who is only good enough if your team isn’t. Reddick’s ceiling is pretty low and the A’s need some players who at least have a chance to be great.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
He's defensively superb
Put up a 1.9 fWAR in 87 games with Boston last year. Included a .335 wOBA with a somewhat lucky but feasible .318 BABIP. I’ve yet to see consensus that he’s a 4th OFer.
Sickels even said this in August of this year:
230/.333/.508 with 33 walks, 39 strikeouts in 191 at-bats for Pawtucket, .338/.385/.554 with 13 walks, 31 strikeouts in 139 at-bats for the Boston Red Sox. He’s made definite progress with the strike zone, and he always had the bat speed/power to succeed.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/8/10/2352455/boston-red-sox-2011-top-20-pre-season-prospects-in-review
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 22, 2011 1:15 PM PST up reply actions
C'mon now. You're going to have to do a lot better than unregressed half season UZR/WAR numbers.
And is that Sickels quote supposed to be a ringing endorsement?
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 22, 2011 1:26 PM PST up reply actions
Agreed.
There isn’t anybody in WAS (aside from the obvious untradeables) that really gets me excited. A large quantity of B’s is okay, I guess, but I’d prefer an A-.
I'd argue
that AJ Cole is more enticing than anyone the Red Sox could offer. This assumes that Cole is available, but the rumors seem to suggest it.
What Nico says above about position players over pitchers is the same as my thoughts.
The hitters in the system are basically all awful, aside from Michael Choice.
I think guys like Bogaerts and Cecchini have similar chances of reaching star level production as someone like Cole.
Maybe more so considering the risks of tinstapp….and like Nico said, the A’s are starving for some potential star level position players.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 22, 2011 1:04 PM PST up reply actions
no doubt
I have to be the first to admit I’m not as high on Bogaerts as others and feel that he’s been overhyped this off-season. and I’ve also seen AJ Cole plenty and am very enamored with his potential.
That's the thing --
if we were in the position of TEX a few years ago, where the biggest need anyway was pitching, then fine. But on a team so bereft of position player talent, with basically two good trade chips in Cahill and Gio, I’m not down with trading both and only getting top pitching prospects back.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Bogaerts is plenty more enticing
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 22, 2011 1:04 PM PST up reply actions
Brandon McCarthy
@BMcCarthy32
Day 1 of Spring Training is going to be a meet and greet party with all of us in name tags it seems.
"He's listed as day to day, but then again, aren't we all?" — Vin Scully
by YonYonson on Dec 22, 2011 12:49 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
I can't wait for McCarthy to post of picture of the 2012 pitching staff
A picture of himself with 4 other pitchers drawn in?
by Maverick10126 on Dec 22, 2011 12:53 PM PST up reply actions
Haha
Once all the madness is over, someone should suggest this to him via twitter…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
by stranahanahan on Dec 22, 2011 12:56 PM PST up reply actions
That would be awesome.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
total side note
since you bring up amazing name, greatest sports name, IMO, was Majestic Mapp (granted, collegiate sports – IIRC, his brother’s name was better – Scientific Mapp). God Shammgod was pretty good.
Yes, but because of this factor I'm ready to deal Gio straight up
for Pat Urckfitz, and he’s a “C” level prospect with Houston.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'm definitely more intrigued by what Boston can offer...
especially if it’s Bogaerts and Jacobs (along with others)…just found THIS article on Bogaerts.
You know you are big-time when people chant your name while you pee. - 67MARQUEZ
by bakerbeachboy on Dec 22, 2011 1:06 PM PST up reply actions
Ridikkulus!
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Danny Espinosa and Ian Desmond?
But we already have crappy middle infielders!
Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.
Seriously?
Some believe it’s possible shortstop Ian Desmond or even second baseman Danny Espinosa could be "in play.’’
Heyman goes on to say it’s tough to see them parting with Espinosa, so Desmond? You’ve got to be joking. He was marginally better than Cliff last year, and substantially worse the year before. The only thing he has going for him is the “former top prospect” label.
http://jon-heyman.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/33714192/33993498
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
Keith Law
@keithlaw
Gio to Nats for Cole, Norris, Peacock, and Milone. Love this for Oakland.
"He's listed as day to day, but then again, aren't we all?" — Vin Scully
That's a haul
But I was really hoping for some better offensive prospects : (
Bailey for a deal including Brandon Jacobs?
Don't know how I feel about this
Other than I was correct to delay the Community Prospect List to January.
Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.
Definitely that.
Half of our top ten is going to be brand new guys.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Can we get a 3rd baseman within the next 400 years?
Just wondering
We need to trade with Colorado for Alex White
so we can have three Clue characters in our prospect poll.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Wow
Hmmm… at least we got Cole and Peacock?
Disappointed no Hood or that other guy whose name I can’t remember but is an OFer and WC liked a lot…
"Minutes from the last save opportunity...Balfour got 3 outs..."- Nico
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Athletics Nation
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Baseball Nation Recent Stories
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Get a grip: Reds’ Todd Frazier loses bat, still connects for home run (Video)
- Eric Hosmer redefines the Baltimore chop with infield double (Video)
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
