Acquiring Power Isn't More Valuable When a Team Has None
by danmerqury on Dec 20, 2011 7:02 AM PST
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PrintThe A's are punchless. They haven't finished in the top half of teams in Isolated Power since 2003. I can count on two hands the number of times an Athletic has slugged .500 this century. But I keep reading things about team "balance", in that the A's should target a slugger for the sole reason that the team doesn't have one. There seems to be a fairly widespread misconception that if a team lacks power, acquiring a power hitter will provide a larger boost to the team than if they already had four 30 HR players. It's as if the value of power is dependent on the team's slugging percentage.
It's simply not true. The value of slugging percentage is linear. The difference in runs scored between a team with a SLG of .400 and .450 is the same as .600 and .650, all else equal.
I know this topic has been pretty much beaten to death in sabermetric circles, but there's no problem with re-testing those conclusions and bringing it to a different audience. So here we go.
Some background first: A few years ago, Tom Tango created wOBA, which is a stat that adds together all of the possible batting outcomes (singles, doubles, triples, walks, etc) and weights them appropriately to come up with a total picture of how valuable a player's offense is. The important thing here is that wOBA assumes that offensive value is linear, which means that if power is indeed non-linear, I can use wOBA as a baseline to hold everything constant except power. That way, I can find any possible deviation from the linear model.
First up, I took every team, broken up by season, from 2000-2011. This gave me 12 years and 360 data points to work with. After the jump is team runs scored vs. team wOBA.
What's important here is the trendline. The relationship between wOBA and runs scored says that if I multiply a team's wOBA by 5365 and subtract 999, I'll get the average amount of runs scored. For example, the 2011 A's had a wOBA of .302, which means that on average, that team will score 621 runs on the season. The 2011 A's actually scored 645, so they overperformed the estimate by 24 runs. For convenience, I'm going to use the term xRuns to mean the expected amount of runs predicted by this model.
Now, if it's true that acquiring power is worth more when a team has very little of it, I should see a pattern in how the data deviates from that linear trendline. The wOBA model assumes that power is worth the same amount at all levels. If the value of power is greater when a team's power is scarce, then the low power teams would be losing out on runs that the linear wOBA model predicts. If true, the teams that have a low amount of power should tend to underperform their wOBA estimate.
So I put Isolated Power on the x-axis and Runs minus xRuns on the y-axis to show how much a team over or underperformed the wOBA model. If power isn't linear, a pattern should emerge.
Nope. It's a uniform scattering of points, with no discernible pattern with respect to either variable.
Now, I should make it clear that acquiring a young slugger is rarely a bad thing. But acquiring a slugger simply for the sole purpose of getting a slugger, when you have the opportunity to get a better overall hitter? That's a bad move. There's no reason to covet someone like Mark Trumbo, who has tons of power but nothing else, adding up to a below-average hitter for a first baseman. Better sluggers don't necessarily make offense. Better hitters do.
- In case you're wondering about the linearity of any other aspect of hitting, here's the same exercise done for AVG, OBP, and SLG.
- And for the sake of completeness, the R2 values for the deviance charts with respect to AVG, OBP, SLG, and ISO are 0.010, 0.001, 0.002, and 0.000009, respectively. Zero, in other words.
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Adding anything to this roster is a waste of time
The A’s are not commited to winning so what’s the point of doing anything? We’ve seen this before — dumping 23-yr olds for 19-yr olds. Round and round it goes. Shuffle the roster a little to make themselves look busy.
A’s are obviously commited to looking bad all around to influence MLB to allow them to move. The victims are the current A’s fans. It’s a bore.
Bitter pill especially for us season ticket holders
by OaklandSi on Dec 20, 2011 7:42 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Yes, because no other fans care!
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DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Because it gets REALLY old hearing that season ticket holders are somehow more important
Cause, yeah, I guess fuck me since I can’t afford season tickets for my family of 4, and instead I go to less games and spend the same amount of money.
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DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
by mikev on Dec 20, 2011 8:13 AM PST up reply actions 3 recs
This issue always sets you off
Season Ticket holders are very important. If the residents of Orinda/Emeryville/Walnut Creek/Concord etc….that historically held season tickets and supported the team in the 80-90’s stuck around, i would argue that the state of the Oakland A franchise would be much different. I don’t think anyone questions your dedication to the Oakland A’s, but all the same, the population that supports a team with regular attendance is vastly more important to the livelihood of the team than those who occasionally go.
So you're saying that season ticket holders were important in the 80-90s but not now?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 9:46 AM PST up reply actions
yes
The east bay cities residents in those years supported the Oakland A’s with season ticket plans. If you did a comparison of season tickets in the areas I mentioned in 87-89 of those years versus those in the the early 2000’s (the winning years) there would be a huge drop off. I, and many others would argue that the East Bay stopped supporting the team.
I could afford season tickets.
I cannot afford to go to Oakland to the games (I live in Southern California). But there are thousands of fans who care about their team who can’t afford season tickets – they aren’t less so fans because they can’t. Some people have families, some people have to work two jobs, and many in this economy have no job at all. Shoving the “season ticket holders” deserve better line is appalling. Watching the game on tv or listening on the radio doesn’t make you less of a fan. Television deals allowed the Rangers to bid on Darvish and the Angels to get Pujols + Wilson, but you don’t hear fans who sit and watch every game say they the organization is more indebted to them. I AM WITH YOU MIKEV. Let’s stop the “I have season tickets so I matter more” garbage.
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by dwishinsky on Dec 20, 2011 3:10 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
and I will continue to disagree.
What’s very important is corporate money, suites, and sponsor dollars.
and your last sentence is bullshit. The casual fan is the most important thing a team can have. They KNOW that the 78 diehard fans who show up every game with flags and drums will be there. It’s the other 20,000 empty seats that they can’t fill that are the problem.
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DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
by mikev on Dec 20, 2011 9:49 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Yes but if you can fill the other 20,000 seats with season ticket holders
that’s better for the team than if you have to fight to sell each ticket individually.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 9:51 AM PST up reply actions
good luck with that.
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My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Here's a WSJ article from 2009 on the change in emphasis from corporate to individual season ticket holders
Wooing baseball’s hard-core fans reflects a major-league seat change. In the past, when attendance was rising, the clubs’ marketing departments focused on big-dollar sales, such as corporate suites and stadium-naming rights. But last year, attendance at ballparks fell 1% even before the economy crashed. Suddenly, clubs remembered that nobody matters more than loyal fans — people like Frances Ingemann, a retired linguistics professor who drives 50 miles from Lawrence, Kan., to every Royals home game.
“The season-ticket holder represents an annuity that is the life blood of the organization,” says Mark Fernandez, senior vice president of the Tampa Bay Rays, whose 2008 World Series appearance along with some new promotions have boosted that club’s season-ticket base.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 10:03 AM PST up reply actions
Wow, mad props to Frances Ingemann!
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 20, 2011 11:16 AM PST up reply actions
The retired linguistics professor demographic
is extremely important.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
What the hell are retired linguistics?
Is that what they are right before they become dead languages?
MexicAN AmericAN VegAN
so the die-hard fan is more important than the community based fan.
Ever read about the Montreal Expos?
those were the guys who couldn't draw for shit, played in a crap stadium, and eventually got moved by MLB
hmm…
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
that's a false dichotomy
Season ticket holders are important because they are steady income. If you have 5,000, you can book that income. If you have 20,000, you can book 4x that income. Attracting and keeping season ticket holders is usually a high priority for most teams.
Also, a larger season ticket base attracts casual fans because the better attendance is, the better the atmosphere is at the game.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 20, 2011 11:11 AM PST up reply actions
It is also the occasional fans, who can't come to every game, who make the TV contracts viable.
Those contracts are much more valuable than sellouts.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
OaklandSi's comment wasn't really against those who don't have season tickets.
It is just a bitter pill when you throw down a lot of money and drag yourself to game after game to watch a team whose management does not appreciate the money you are paying for season tickets or your commitment to the team. They are basically telling the current season ticket holders that they would like to replace them with new, shiny, richer season ticket holders in San Jose. It is a bitter pill especially when you come out to 81 games per year.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 20, 2011 10:08 AM PST up reply actions
This is pretty much the way I feel
I’m going to games to see my team win. If I’m watching at home and the team falls behind, I switch the station and do something else. But at the game, seeing a competitive team is far more important because I want to stay the entire game.
This isn’t a knock on mikev or folks who can’t afford season tickets. But it says to me that management doesn’t care what I do at all. I’ll continue to support the team after 2012, but screw paying a thousand bucks a year for crap.
It's not YOUR team though. It's a team that you like.
The team has thousands of other fans who care just as much as you do but understand that in order to put a competitive team on the field, there will be a few ugly years. I’m fine with sacrificing current wins for future wins, because there really isn’t a clear way to get current wins, and it’s not because I’m not as diehard a fan as you. We all like the Athletics about the same. It comes down to what the front office has to do to put a decent team on the field.
by NateHST on Dec 20, 2011 1:29 PM PST up reply actions 6 recs
This comment doesn't make any sense, Rich's comment was not directed at a rebuilding process.
It was directed at a constant motivated effort to alienate the current fans and facilitate a move to San Jose. I still love the A’s but I don’t know any season ticket holder who is happy about the management of this franchise.
there will be a few ugly years
Did you mean 5 ugly years followed by 5 more potentially even uglier years? Because we are 5 years into the ugliness, year 6 will be worse, year 7 will approximately be like year 6 although we could have Michael “The Savior” Choice turn out to be great, but likely we will trade him in the middle of year 8 for a haul of prospects and recycle, keeping costs down, signing FAs to 1-year contracts with team options, and generally never committing to making the team great again. That has been the Lew Wolff ownership. The team has enough common sense to know that committing the time, effort, energy, and money to go to that many games is hard to expect of any fan, but they continue along floating in this path of mediocrity and their “we can’t compete” refrain, all the well knowing that they are disrespecting fans.
I’m fine with sacrificing current wins for future wins, because there really isn’t a clear way to get current wins
Your premise is acceptable but it is not what is actually happening, not here, and not in Pittsburgh, and not in other places.
For the A’s, it’s just floating on year to year, sold as sacrificing the current team for a future lucrative move but really just keeping payroll and long term financial commitments to talented players consistently low and profits consistently high.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 20, 2011 2:30 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Considering the recent moves of the A's direct competition
What is the way to current wins, short of the no-chance-in-hell prospect of signing someone like Prince Fielder and hoping for the best? It’s the mediocrity that is killing this team; not drafting high enough, while simultaneously not finishing with a good enough record to compete.
Sure, the team could go all Marlins and sign everyone, but even adding 10-12 wins to this team makes it barely crack .500. Indeed, watching my team suck is bad, but it’s very clear the current MLB crop of players isn’t going to cut it right now.
"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer
by cuppingmaster on Dec 20, 2011 2:52 PM PST up reply actions
You're over-exaggerating basically everything.
The comment was in response to him saying that A’s ownership and management doesn’t care what he wants because they don’t want him as a fan. That’s what doesn’t make sense.
There are a lot of selfish comments on AN that have the same basic formula: Management does the opposite of what I want; therefore, management hates me; therefore, management hates all A’s fans; therefore, they want to drive away as many fans for their own greed (moving to San Jose, pocketing leftover payroll, etc.). And it’s all bullshit. Remember how Beane traded for a brand new outfield last season? The pitching was supposed to carry the team deep into the season, if not to the postseason. But Anderson and Braden and Ross succumbed to injuries, and Cahill didn’t replicate his 2010.
This is a serious question: if the A’s had competed last season, do you think Beane would have abandoned ship at the trade deadline just to make the team look worse than it actually was? To drive away fans? To save money?
When the A’s have had the opportunity to make moves in order to put a competitive team on the field, they’ve done so. Unfortunately, like the Holliday deal, they have been short-sighted or impulsive buys. But they fucking did it, didn’t they?
I am not disagreeing with the idea that you have to rebuild at times to get a competitive team
unless of course you are a large market franchise.
I just disagree that is what is going on here.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 20, 2011 4:06 PM PST up reply actions
But one can argue we did a rebuild that just didnt wrok
Last year we were to compete, and in 2010 injuries, etc screwed us but we were an 85 win team via Pythag. Not terrible.
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It's not terrible but it's not working to keep fans either
It would be hard to draw fewer people even with a 60 win team
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 4:09 PM PST up reply actions
But would being an 80 win team for another five years
Keep the turnstiles turning? Probably not.
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No, that's why I don't think a complete rebuild with
a couple of 60 win seasons would result in any worse short term attendance than what they’re already doing and would have long term benefits
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 4:12 PM PST up reply actions
Ah yes
I don’t think itd be a big time attendance loss if we sucked terribly either.
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sure, one can argue that
The only thing is that a rebuild isn’t a one-year, let’s give it a shot kind of a thing. It’s building momentum, consistency etc. The hallmark of the teams of the past few years has been one-year contracts, not necessarily signifying any real rebuilding.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 20, 2011 4:09 PM PST up reply actions
How do you turn this team into something competitive for 2012?
You really can’t. There are too many holes.
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well... IF everyone has a career year
then MAYBE…….. of course that depends on who the everyone is
by heartstopper on Dec 23, 2011 2:51 PM PST up reply actions
It might look a lot better five years after the fact
if they hadn’t sacrificed prospects in an attempt to put a competitive team on the field in 2009 and 2011.
I agree.
The propensity to trade for and sign players who have one year on their contracts is pretty ridiculous.
I don’t know how you can build a consistent winner doing that.
I just think a lot of the incentive to do that is simply to clear the books every year, not incur financial commitments, and make profits. I do not think that most of these situations were genuinely going for it. The prospects traded for the 2011 “go for it” year for example all pretty much suck (Corey Brown, Vin Mazzaro, H-Rod is good but he is a reliever).
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 20, 2011 4:37 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah that was the danger
If we had been successful we couldnt have sustained it needed an all new outfield regardlesss
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I agree in theory
And when discussing 2009 in particular.
But the A’s gave up nothing of import to acquire DDJ and Willingham. Even if you’re in the midst of a rebuild taking advantage of those who incorrectly over-value your assets is a necessary practice. Don’t forget, the A’s receive 3 draft picks as an aftermath to those trades. Those draftees could end up better than the dregs Beane gave up.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Hey! Henry is no dreg!
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 5:59 PM PST up reply actions
yeah, he almost had a 1 WAR point in 65 IP. almost. so close.
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
I'm sure they will dearly miss you.
If I’m watching at home and the team falls behind, I switch the station and do something else.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Also it is a sunk cost
They don’t say, hey we signed this television contract with you but 30,000 people stopped watching after the sixth inning so you owe us money back.
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The fact is...
I want to see a competitive team on the field. If that means ugliness, well, I’ve already seen ugliness. The problem may, at this point, be Billy Beane. While having top draft picks certainly helps, you need more than that: you need smarts. I’m not seeing it from Beane any more. The Cahill trade really didn’t do anything except save money for the present and maybe, maybe, slide something extra into the future - but maybe not because a damaged prospect is a damaged prospect.
As for the importance of the season ticket fan: well, if folks are right and the A’s only give a shit about corporate sponsors and corporate boxes, then sure, what the hell, I really don’t matter and I might as well watch at home and save my money for something more important.
Nobody gives a damn what you do with your money.
But stop talking about it on AN like you’re a victim because you don’t want to spend your money watching a losing team.
by NateHST on Dec 20, 2011 3:27 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs
Thinking of flagging this
Sick of your personal attacks.
That's fine, but let's be clear: it isn't a personal attack.
We’ve asked you repeatedly (in this thread, I might add) to stop talking about whether or not you purchase season tickets. It doesn’t matter to anybody else. You are not a bigger or better fan because of the tickets, so don’t use them as proof that you are.
Just be an A’s fan like the rest of us, and leave money out of it.
by NateHST on Dec 20, 2011 3:55 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Yup
I am not going to ding someone’s fan card because they got laid off when the country has 10% unemployment.
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by dwishinsky on Dec 20, 2011 3:59 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
don't forget...
california’s is still hovering around 12 i believe. or is it down to 11 now
by heartstopper on Dec 23, 2011 2:54 PM PST up reply actions
There are two season ticket holders here
The other guy has been making those arguments.
But it says to me that management doesn’t care what I do at all. I’ll continue to support the team after 2012, but screw paying a thousand bucks a year for crap.
That's true
Screw paying a thousand bucks a year for crap.
And Management doesn’t care. But that’s not a knock against management. It’s just what’s happening in the world.
That's your read on it
But that’s not what I meant.
Okay. Well be aware that statements
like that, whether you intend them to or not, alienate a lot of people. Just be clearer I guess. I’m sure I’m not the only one who read it that way.
Obviously not
see above.
I will be more careful in the future.
mikev got on my case a long time ago about this
And he’s right.
But really, if no thought is given to winning until the team is in a venue where there are new season ticket holders, why should old season ticket holders continue? That’s not a knock against the A’s. It’s just a statement. I’d rather see the A’s win in San Jose (where I can’t attend) than lose in Oakland, or even muddle through.
I think too often these comments..
Whether well-intentioned and inadvertent tend to make it sound like “I am a season ticket holder, I want to watch this. I am not getting it. That is unfair” as if those who don’t have season tickets are fine with watching losing baseball because they arent monetarily invested and thereby are losing less.
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The thing is, by being a season ticket holder you basically sign on to take the bad with the good
People who have been STH for decades know and understand this, and in most cases have long since accepted it. They know there will be crappy years and they know there will be glorious ones mixed in between other average ones, but that’s fine with them. Of course, as long as they can afford it.
If a few losing seasons is enough to turn you off from being a STH, then stop being one and sign up again when the team’s better. Otherwise, live with it.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
by Flashfire on Dec 20, 2011 5:17 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
it's not just the typical cycles of good and bad
any smart baseball fan knows that’s how things go (unless your team is very wealthy). He is talking about something else here.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 20, 2011 5:34 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, it's not the standard cycle
The situation right now is that the team is bad and most likely will remain bad until the move. So the moment things improve, those of us who live too far away from San Jose will not be able to be season ticket holders. We’re like Moses. We can view the promised land but we cannot enter.
We're more like Moises
We can view the foul fly ball but Bartman is in the way.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Also...
One reason to remain a season ticket holder, through the bad times, is that you get great seats (granted at ridiculously unaffordable prices) for the playoffs. But now there’s pretty much no shot at the playoffs so by being season ticket holders, we’re no longer “reserving” those seats because by the time the seats become viable, we won’t be season ticket holders.
But nothing Billy Beane can do in the next three years will change that; no trade he makes now will change that. That’s life.
And I'll back you up Richwol1
When you sink a lot of money and time to see the product on the field: It is absolutely fair to have the sentiments you have expressed on this post.
Hishnik
Richwol1 doesn’t OWN the team. Baseball is entertainment. You don’t get a refund if the one game you go to every year is a win or a loss. You go because oyu like watching your team.
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Like the home opener against the Yankees?
Zito almost pissed me off as bad as all the Yankee fans around us.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
No, you go because you like watching the other team
(A joking reference to the notion that more than half the fans in attendance are rooting for NYY, BOS…)
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Watching a losing team isn't really the issue
you are right that being a season ticket holder doesn’t give you an extra right to want a winning team.
yes, sometimes teams win, sometimes teams lose. It’s actively not trying to build a consistent winner that is an issue. I think the reason they aren’t trying to build a consistent winner is because in large part that building a consistent winner is not really the road to the highest short or long term profits.
That to me is slighting the people who pay money expecting the team to try to put together a winning team in good faith; given that their time and financial commitment directly to the team and their pocketbook is greater, yes it is more of a slight.
And if you don’t live in the Bay Area, yes, Oakland or San Jose doesn’t matter as much (as compared to if you live in the east bay and attend dozens of games). It is a fallacy to suggest that everything affects every fan equally and there are not certain things that affect season ticket holders more than others.
And give me a break about can/can’t afford tickets. Who is really talking about that? That doesn’t apply at all to this conversation.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 20, 2011 4:17 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm from Illinois. Instead of buying season tickets, I buy
MLB.tv. Because that costs hundreds of dollars less, I’m less interested (or less slighted by, in your words, but it’s the same) on the product they put on the field?
Fuck that.
I agree with the FIP!
I suppose I am even LESS slighted because I will be spending money to see the A’s in Anaheim (35 miles away) and thereby giving it to the Angels and helping them pay for Pujols… hmmm..
(NateHST – are you familiar with the wonderful Michigan term FIP? Most FIPs aren’t)
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Looked it up.
I feel the same way towards most of Chicago. (I am not from Chicago). Most of the rest of Illinois is alright.
Is it specific towards Chicago residents
or just general? The urbandictionary definition mentioned Chicago specifically, so I don’t know.
Chicagoans
In usage at least. Though it is short for F’n Illinois People so… I suppose it is applicable on a case by case basis?
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Yeah, Chicago's a little intense for me.
It’s a beautiful city but it’s just a lot heavier than the rest of Illinois. Driving in Chicago is one of the most hectic places I’ve ever driven through, and I’ve driven through a lot of crazy cities.
Yeah I love Chicago.
Where in the state you from? I’ve been across 70 and 80 and 90 in the state
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Why are you guys A's fans?
One of you lives in Illinois, and the other in Los Angeles. What is it about the A’s that makes you A’s fans?
KOOOOOOOOOOOOOOUUUUUUUUUUUUZ!
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
Insider joke
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."-anonymous
"i guess i just like beer"-stm
I lived out east
When I was a kid, the A’s were the best team, so I liked them a bit. But had no real fav team till I became a teenager, spent all my money on the baseball sattelite package and would watch games late with my dad. Never liked the NL though I liked Scully, so I ended up watching a lot of A’s games cuz they were late. That was that!
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Little did you know...
…that one day you’d be rooting for a team managed by Bob Geren. Sigh. The choices we make in childhood.
I am happy with it
Went to Michigan State so I could wear my cap with my hoodies and t-shirts haha
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The shoes, Bobby Crosby's socks, Billy Beane,
the pause in Dan Haren’s windup, Zito’s curveball, that one diving catch Eric Byrnes made, the half season of Carlos Gonzalez’s swing, Nick Swisher.
Things like that.
Hell...
I go back to Wayne Gross and Mickey Kluttz.
You haven’t seen anything til you’ve seen Wayne Gross and Mickey Kluttz.
As a season ticket holder
(ITS A JOKE!!!) :D
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I don't know why poeple are upset about the number of season ticket holders.
I remember the late 70s, when 500-700 was a good show.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
A season ticket holder...
Why do it? You could show up at a game, buy a cheap ticket, and sit behind the dugout and shmooze with the coaches. I don’t think Finley hired enough ushers to check on your tickets so you could sit pretty much anywhere.
Except Yankee and Red Sox games, when the Coliseum became Yankee Stadium or Fenway West. and A’s fans were few and far between. I think that’s when I started to turn against my old home town team, the Yankees. It was the awful New York fans and their arrogance. Which is why, so many years later, I will NEVER forgive Jeremy Giambi.
SLIDE!
Slide, be-otch, SLIDE!
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
you and so many others
me included. the bozo!!! who taught him the basics?
by heartstopper on Dec 23, 2011 2:59 PM PST up reply actions
This afternoon my boss was
reminiscing about watching the Seattle Rainiers play when he was a kid in the 1950s. He mentioned some player and was trying to remember some of the others. So I called up the 1955 Rainiers on Baseball Reference and showed him the entire roster with all their stats, and he was totally blissed out with the memories.
The Internet is awesome.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
also the Oakland Oaks
when I get depressed I do the same thing with the 1948 through 1950 Oakland Oaks playing out on San Pablo Avenue in Emeryville. Teams of joyous memories always result.
by robertmelvin on Dec 20, 2011 7:17 PM PST up reply actions
That is not exactly what I said but I agree that this point has been beaten to death and is not worth discussing any longer
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 20, 2011 4:40 PM PST up reply actions
Speaking of beaten to death
How about those 2012 A’s!?
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by dwishinsky on Dec 20, 2011 4:42 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
How am I supposed to interpret this as something other than money spent = better fandom?
That to me is slighting the people who pay money expecting the team to try to put together a winning team in good faith; given that their time and financial commitment directly to the team and their pocketbook is greater, yes it is more of a slight.
The problem is the mentality is wrong
They’re not paying money to get that in return. They’re paying money to go see baseball games, get tickets for a bit less, and reap a few side benefits of being a regular – whether it’s becoming more familiar with a few players, getting something special here and there, whatever.
I’m sure most teams have an end goal of winning more games than they lose and, probably, hoisting a World Series trophy. That doesn’t mean they’re going to be able to improve the team every single year. At times, it’s even going to mean multiple bad seasons. Some people have trouble accepting that.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
The difficulty now is...
Season ticket holders in Oakland who live too far away from San Jose are only going to get the bad. Not the bad and good.
The other side of the coin is this: there is no way out. Rebuilding is necessary and the team needs to move.
And it will benefit those in San Jose who have been STH
If someone in Oakland can afford to be a STH, most of them should be able to afford at least going to some games in San Jose. Personal opinion.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Time and distance
To get to a 7:05 start time, given rush hour traffic, it will probably take over two hours to head down I-880 from Berkeley and points north. It’s not the money, necessarily.
San Jose people have had to deal with traffic getting to games for ages, too
Last of the Ninth - Photography
ANd we might pick up STHers from south of San Jose, who haven't bought them because of the current drive.
Like Morgan Hill/Gilroy
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
For all the fans added, old ones lost.
Thats true of any business moving. Makes no diff in the end if you ask me.
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Yep. That's what I was trying to say
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
The Cahill trade I feel makes us better today perhaps...
But that is neither here nor there.
I’m not saying season ticket holders aren’t important. It is that they are no more important than the thousands of fans who watch on tv, or the kids in school who never go to a baseball game but wear a cap proudly.
Money doesn’t buy one’s level of fandom. Passion does.
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by dwishinsky on Dec 20, 2011 3:29 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Then again, Cahill could have another crap season or replicate his 2nd half from 2011.
and Parker could outpitch him this season alone.
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DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
And that's the crapshoot no matter what
Hell, Cowgill might bat .350 with 20 HR and a skyrocketing fWAR.
When the San Francisco Giants, years ago, traded Gaylord Perry for Sudden San McDowell, they thought it was an even trade. Many people did. But McDowell was out of the game within a season or two, and Gaylord Perry played for another five decades (that’s hyperbole but you get the point).
It’s possible that Beane looked at Cahill, saw someone who may not pull it together and figured that all things being equal, and given the A’s pitching coaches, Parker could very well be closer to a front-line pitcher than Cahill - and that Cowgill might start the season in center field. That’s probably what I’ll choose to believe at some point in the next couple of months because it’s the only way to think about this trade and feel good about it.
OMG I hope he does that.
Because it would be even COOLER when I get a “More Cowgill” shirt.
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My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
by mikev on Dec 20, 2011 3:41 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
That is true of any trade.
So one can say that any trade ever is a bad terrible move. Or brilliant. Which means you are arguing with everyone based upon nothing. Right?
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And you're arguing the reverse based on nothing as well
What we’re doing is weighing both sides and making determinations. Otherwise the A’s can trade Cahill for Jason Varitek, and Varitek could have five good seasons and be the oldest brilliant catcher in history, while Cahill loses it all and winds up in AA.
..but nobody would trade Cahill for Varitek
assuming Varitek wasn’t a free agent.
Because you are using this trade...
As the basis for the nonsensical “management doesn’t care” “Billy Beane is terrible” argument.
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Why wouldn't you think that
It’s possible that Beane looked at Cahill, saw someone who may not pull it together and figured that all things being equal, and given the A’s pitching coaches, Parker could very well be closer to a front-line pitcher than Cahill – and that Cowgill might start the season in center field. That’s probably what I’ll choose to believe at some point in the next couple of months because it’s the only way to think about this trade and feel good about it.
I mean, I have a hard time believing that Beane wanted Parker, Cowgill, and Cook so badly that he not only agreed to give up an ace but also threw in breslow.
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My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
based on may 2011 on.............
cahill is NOT an ace. that will be determined in time. but based on career to date the jury is still out
by heartstopper on Dec 23, 2011 3:04 PM PST up reply actions
If that's really their strategy then I hope they aren't allowed to move. Deliberate sucking should not be rewarded
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 7:45 AM PST up reply actions
what if it nets us the first pick?
"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer
by cuppingmaster on Dec 20, 2011 7:49 AM PST up reply actions
It won't matter. We'll suck anyway since one player can't make a good team by himself
So we’d have to suck for like 5-6 years and not miss on any #1 picks. Then the first guy becomes a FA and it’s a never ending cycle of suckiness.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 7:51 AM PST up reply actions
Well, in this case, sucking is defined as trading established guys for some high-upside talent
So, get more and younger guys, and some high drafting. I don’t see why that’s a worse plan than trying to overpay for middle-tier FA to compete with the Angels and Rangers.
"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer
by cuppingmaster on Dec 20, 2011 8:02 AM PST up reply actions
Well I'm all for that, but that's not what BlueMoon is complaining about.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 8:03 AM PST up reply actions
I'm not sure if that is the motivation for sucking
Looking at our competition and the composition of the current team, whether the A’s want to move or not, this tends to make sense.
"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer
by cuppingmaster on Dec 20, 2011 8:11 AM PST up reply actions
Yes I'm all for rebuilding in the current situation, but I'm not for sucking just to facilitate a move
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 8:11 AM PST up reply actions
I don't think that's what's going on here
Besides, they A’s don’t need to suck to show that they are not competitive in this environment. The signings of Pujols, Wilson, and Darvish (soon) only serve to help their case.
"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer
by cuppingmaster on Dec 20, 2011 8:14 AM PST up reply actions
Well if they didn't suck it would be because Billy Beane is a handsome
boy genius who knows how to uncover undervalued assets. In either case they need more revenue
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 8:15 AM PST up reply actions
How far are you willing to go, as a fan, to get that?
Myself, I’m fine with sitting through a rebuild that may have the ancillary benefit of strengthening a case for San Jose.
"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer
by cuppingmaster on Dec 20, 2011 8:23 AM PST up reply actions
Not even that.
I’m simply rational enough to understand that expecting to compete for the division/postseason/world series EVERY SINGLE YEAR is simply not going to happen.
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My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
I think it could happen with a higher revenue base
The Braves and Cardinals have largely done it
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 8:30 AM PST up reply actions
Be interesting to see what happens with the Cards now that they don't have the best hitter in the game.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Yes that change can't be good, although the Braves
are still competitive without maybe the greatest pitcher of all time and two other hall of famers in the rotation
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 8:48 AM PST up reply actions
Expanding the Wild Card
means that it will be easier for teams to put themselves in the running for the postseason, but much harder for teams to build for a WS title, since the playoffs really are largely a crapshoot.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
It's strange.
People continue to harp on that, as if the A’s are simply tanking because they want to move. It just serves as fodder for anti-Wolff folks, or anti-SJ folks.
What many don’t realize is that this team absolutely DOES need to rebuild, the stadium situation has nothing to do with it.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
If the A's trade Gio for Bryce Harper
Then I’m willing to wait.
But, as with Cahill, they trade him for a more or less equal pitching prospect, all things considered, plus doo-dah, then Beane isn’t really building a team for the future. He’s saving money for the owners.
Or maybe it's because he's the general manager of an MLB baseball
team, he calls the shots, and he really liked Parker and Cowgill. I highly doubt the owners came to him and said, “This sub-$50M payroll is way too high. Go make a redundant trade.”
So he traded Cahill for Cahill, and got Parker and Cowgill for free?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
He got Cowgill and the reliever for Breslow
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
You're setting an unrealistic goal
That Gio would be traded for him is lunacy. In fact, Selig might go all David Stern and veto that on its face.
Besides, Cahill is a cool guy and all, but whether he will have future success was a topic of significant consternation for A’s fans. It’s not like we traded a CYA winner for Parker.
"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer
by cuppingmaster on Dec 20, 2011 1:36 PM PST up reply actions
It was hyperbole but the overall premise that the team is basically treading water, staying in place, and saving money, is pretty apparent
Many people on this site derided the Cahill trade because the piece we got was an SP who could perform at Cahill’s level if things break right.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 20, 2011 2:32 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, that's pretty much it
And it was hyperbole.
But the Cahill trade was about treading water. What I do not want to see is more of the same with Gio Gonzalez.
Realistically, what I expect to see on the field for the A’s in 2012 are young guys being given a chance and a handful of older guys who can help make the team competitive on a daily basis. The pttching staff, mid-season, even without Gio, should be decent. This will be a make or break year for Carter and Taylor, possibly for Allen as well. Which means either the A’s will be surprisingly good for the first half before fading, or they’ll suck down the line. But if the A’s are going to trade Gio, let it be for real talent and not simply to save money.
by richwol1 on Dec 20, 2011 3:32 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Or it is about trading an overvalued fourth starter
While people still think he is something more to get a very high quality potential arm, because no one on earth thinks we can compete with the Angels or Rangers this year.
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And if you keep trading your best pieces for lateral/marginal improvements, you're not gonna compete with the Angels or Rangers any year in the future either.
It continually amazes me how often people miss the point of rebuilding.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 20, 2011 8:01 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Thats making the assumption
Cahill is a “best piece”. He was a best piece because most of the pieces were below average whereas he was at average.
I get the point of rebuilding that’s why you go for a high ceiling guy versus a fourth starter innings-eater. We differ on whether or not the move was a good one, not the point of rebuilding, thank you.
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In that case you disagree that Cowgill and
Cook are low ceiling guys who are major league ready and not high ceiling guys who may or may not be major league ready. I don’t see that at all.
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 21, 2011 10:06 PM PST up reply actions
I think Cowgill has the ability to being an average to above average player
So moderate ceiling? Haha
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"But if the A’s are going to trade Gio, let it be for real talent and not simply to save money."
Rec’d.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 20, 2011 7:59 PM PST up reply actions
oh... but just think of how many draft picks could be had in the future for that #1
when he is traded in a few years
by heartstopper on Dec 23, 2011 3:05 PM PST up reply actions
absolutely right.
There is no point in doing anything with this team right now, no hope for any progress in the near term.
We’re just running in place. I have no idea why we even fired Geren, he was the perfect captain of a ship to nowhere.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 20, 2011 9:52 AM PST up reply actions
Perfectly Said
I know no one cares whether I care anymore but I don’t care….and I don’t care.
Everything looks nicer when you win. The girls are prettier. The cigars taste better. The trees are greener. Billy Martin
by Steve in Napa on Dec 20, 2011 10:25 AM PST up reply actions
This entire subthread is based on a false premise.
Not just a false premise, but a premise that is the exact opposite of what’s really going on.
Blue Moon complained:
We’ve seen this before — dumping 23-yr olds for 19-yr olds. Round and round it goes.
In fact, that is not what the A’s have been doing for the past decade. In fact, we don’t see very much of that at all. If you look at the A’s actual trade record for the past ten years, you see something entirely different.
Fans today are bitter about us trading away players in their prime in order to get younger prospects, but the last time we did that was before the 2008 season, four years ago. In 2009-2011 no player was sacrificed for the sake of rebuilding. No established player more significant than Mark Ellis or Rajai Davis was traded away during those years. In 2009, we famously did the exact opposite of what Blue Moon complains about: we gave away talented young players in order to receive a star veteran in the form of Matt Holliday. Disgruntled fans — consistent only in their determination to complain, not in the logic of their position — bitch about that, too.
Even in 2008, when we really did trade away the team’s current stars (Haren, Swisher, Blanton), it was not done in the spirit of a true rebuild. Half the players received were near-major-league ready players ready to join the team either immediately or within a year (Gio, Anderson, Sweeney, etc).
Go back more years and you see more of the same. In 2006 and 2007 we traded away no one of consequence. 2006 was like 2009 in that we actually did the reverse, giving up Ethier for Milton Bradley, similar to the Holliday trade. And 2005 was like 2008 in that we gave away stars (Mulder, Hudson) but the central pieces were guys who were ready to jump right in or at least were expected to (Haren, Meyer).
The reality is that the true rebuild — that is, when a team sacrifices a couple years to being really really bad in order to rebuild the farm system from the bottom up — the practice which some in this debate are attacking as unfair to season ticket holders and other fans, while others in this debate defend as a necessary practice for a MLB team in a small market — is something that the A’s don’t actually do.
It seems some A’s fans are spoiled and have no sense of what it really means to rebuild, and what it really means to be a sucky team during a rebuild. Look at where the A’s finished in the standings for the past five years: 19th, 18th, 21st, 13th, and 20th. That’s out of 30 teams. That’s a sub-par team but it’s not a cellar dweller. In no time during this period did the A’s fall below the two-thirds mark. In 2010 we finished at 500. And yet this is being represented as five years of utter hell. You want to see real suck, look at some other teams’ records.
And do you want to know why the A’s never been that bad and never committed to a true rebuild? It’s for exactly the reasons that today’s fans are complaining that the team is neglecting. It’s because the A’s were determined to try to put a decent team on the field year after year, because the A’s aren’t willing to ever plumb the depths of being really really bad, because the A’s are desperately afraid of losing those season ticket holders who might bolt if the team ever did a true rebuild. That’s why we gave up Carlos Gonzalez for Matt Holliday. That’s why we gave up Andre Ethier for Milton Bradley. That’s why when we do trade away a star like Mulder or Haren we make sure to get a bunch of players who are safe bets to start in the majors soon rather than a bunch of toolsy youngsters with superstar upside.
The A’s aren’t trying to lose in order to secure a new stadium. It’s the other way around. The A’s are trying to get a new stadium so that they can afford to lose. The A’s need to lose. They need to rebuild the team properly. It is the prospect of a new stadium in San Jose that can free the ownership from the death grip of spoiled fans who have a tantrum any time the team has less than 75 wins.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
by iglew on Dec 20, 2011 3:17 PM PST up reply actions 15 recs
You there. With the logic and the facts.
Stop.
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My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
by mikev on Dec 20, 2011 3:18 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Rec'd
Well said, iglew.
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Dec 20, 2011 3:24 PM PST up reply actions
The irony is that I'm actually not a big fan of the rebuild.
Out of everyone here, I probably lean more than anyone in the direction of preferring a team that muddles along at about 500 year after year, as opposed to being ultra-sucky for a couple years in order to make a run at a championship after that. From my point of view, the new stadium is actually a bad thing because it allows the A’s to stop doing the perpetual-reload scheme that I prefer.
My little rant isn’t because I actually want to rebuild, just that I hate seeing such a big debate about something based on complete falsehood..
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
I see your point
I’m actually more okay with a full rebuild than I let on. I was around during the really suck years of the late ‘70s and mid-’80s. The turnaround was very fast in both cases, and very spectacular.
I’d have rather seen the A’s dump DeJesus, Willingham and Crisp during mid-season 2011 so we could watch Taylor, Carter, Miller, Recker etc. get a shot. I’m okay with hardly any veteran outfielder this coming year, and with a place holder third baseman. I dont’ want to see the A’s sign Crisp or Conor Jackson.
My argument against the Cahill trade is not that the A’s gave up something for nothing. It’s that they gave up a pitcher for a pitcher, when the team really needs future stars. I’d have been happy if the centerpiece had been a 19 year old top rated prospect in single-A ball.
Which one is better?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 3:56 PM PST up reply actions
I ask you another question
Which one is better when you need them to be better?
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We can't know that
We have a pitcher that’s made the transition to the majors, and one who hasn’t. We have a healthy pitcher and one who has had injury. We have two pitchers with potentially unequal skills.
Can you say for a fact that in four years Parker will be better than Cahill?
You miss the point
What good does Cahill do us in 2012? He doesn’t close the gap between the Angels and Rangers. Doesn’t make us a .500 team even. We are several pieces away from that.
Parker could not work out sure, but if he does he gives us important value when we need it. When he could be the diff b/w playoffs or not.
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Seems to me that we're talking about making a difference
You’re talking about a few inches on a team that needs to move a mile.
I'm saying the team does need to move a mile
So why invest in today’s inches when we are investing in tomorrow’s miles?
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You mean tomorrow's 40 miles?
"You can attract a hitter but you can't make him hit" -Lou Wolff
by Geronimo Berroa on Dec 20, 2011 4:30 PM PST up reply actions
I'd rather invest in tomorrow's miles
Honestly, I’m fine with trading Cahill. I’m fine with trading Gio. But the A’s can find pitchers who get the job done with the snap of their fingers (i.e. Moscoso, for chrissake). There will always be good pitchers on the A’s because the system is geared toward good pitching. Also, with the end of PEDs, pitching has become an easier commodity to develop anyway.
I’d rather see these guys go for good hitters; guys who will make a difference in four years. Parker may be better than Cahill, but the A’s have developed Parkers almost every year.
Pitching is always valuable
Dont want the opposite problem of all bats no pitchers.
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Like the Rangers before 2006?
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
At the very least, good pitching can keep you in games
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
Well also having a surplus of pitching is great for the deadline
Can’t hurt to have a lot of good pitchers ever.
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I actually think the equation has changed
…and I think most GMs understand this, which is why it’s virtually impossible these days to pry a good hitting prospect away from a team, but you can get a Parker or Wheeler if you try.
Even if Parker turns into an ace and Cahill continues to pitch at a number 3 level
you’re still not getting the game changing WAR needed to close the gap between us and Texas and Anaheim. It’s not an issue with Parker; it’s an issue with how little of a chance Cowgill/Cook has to provide that game changing WAR. Why do you think the A’s are desperately holding out for prices no team’s willing to pay for Gio and Bailey? That’s what Rich meant about the team moving “a few inches” when we “need to move a mile”.
A lot of people, not just you, don’t seem to understand this point.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 20, 2011 8:13 PM PST up reply actions
So running with this...
If/when Gio gets traded would you want the return to be built entirely of 4 high upside guys, even if they might be a minimum of 3 years away
OR
A mix of 1-2 high upside prospects 3 years away with 2 B grade guys closer to the bigs?
The monster at the end of this blog.
I'd need more info, but in most cases, I think the A's have no choice but to prefer the first.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 20, 2011 8:40 PM PST up reply actions
Hey, the ONE thing the A's DO have is Choice.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Welp
Boston: None played higher than Low-A in 2011
Bogaerts: B+ (Low-A)
Jacobs: B (Low-A)
Cecchini: B (SS)
Alcantara: C+ (GCL/SS)
VS.
Washington
Cole: B+ (Low-A)
Norris: B (AA)
Milone: B- (MLB)
Taylor: C+ (Low-A)
Bogaerts projects to shift to 3B. Jacoby is a COF. Cecchini may or may not stick at 3B. Alcantara is just a long ways away. None of these guys makes it to Oakland sooner than September, 2013 and even that calls for an almost Trout like breakthrough.
Cole has #1/2 potential. Norris is expected to be starter worthy behind the plate and could be ready in a year. Milone has an 87 MPH fastball but filthy numbers two years running. Taylor can play CF and has 25-25 potential.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I'd pick the Red Sox option here
Bogaerts as a 3B >> Cole as a P
Jacobs as a Low A B prospect has a higher upside than Norris as a AA B prospect
Cecchini as a B prospect in SS has a massively higher upside than a B- guy in AAA/MLB
Alcantara also has a bigger upside than Taylor.
I don’t see how it’s even a question that you pick the Red Sox option unless you really value 74 win seasons.
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 9:34 PM PST up reply actions
I don't think you're factoring how far away the Red Sox prospects are.
From Sickels’ 2008 book:
A-
Andy LaRoche
Cameron Maybin
Jed Lowrie
B+
Jeff Clement
Brandon Wood
Taylor Teagarden
Reid Brignac
Daris Barton
Lars Anderson
Matt LaPorta
LaPorta was John’s 19th highest rated hitter heading into 2008 and all the names above his on this list were rated higher.
The ‘08 book was the first one I grabbed but I wouldn’t be surprised if others showed a similar pattern. Even when you can pick and choose, the rate of failure is extremely high. What happens to Boston’s young bats when they face a pitcher who can hit his spots and spin a breaking ball?
Jacobs is an A-ball COF, Norris a AA Catcher. The position difference matters.
I think the double greater than sign exaggerates Bogaerts’ advantage.
Cecchini does have more upside but a lot can happen in the 3 years it’s going to take for him to potentially be ready for the Show.
I’m just saying you can’t just focus on potential; certainty has it’s place and it’s not next to the 74 Win column.
The monster at the end of this blog.
The problem is that the "close to ready" guys in the Nationals package are just as risky in my view.
Norris has been struggling with his contact issues for the last two years. Sure, he gets on base and hits for power now. But will those skills translate against major league pitchers who don’t make as many mistakes and realize that the guy usually can’t hurt them if they pound the zone? Even if he makes it, he doesn’t look to be much better than the league average catcher Suzuki is. To me, his most likely outcome is Kelly Shoppach.
Milone is great at throwing strikes, but he’s not going to strike out that many guys in the majors and he can’t get groundballs. Is he going to be able to throw as many strikes as he does now, against major league hitters without them hitting a ton of homers? Keep in mind that he pitched in three of the most pitcher-friendly, homer-unfriendly environments the last three years. Of course, that might make him do ok here, but even in Oakland he’s probably just an average guy at best.
And that’s precisely what I want to avoid. Getting a bunch of prospects who mostly turn out to be average big leaguers is just as bad as getting a bunch of guys who bust. Either way, you end up rebuilding again 4 years from now.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 20, 2011 10:21 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I think you under-rate Milone a bit
But you’re larger point is valid. While I’m more inclined to find a league average (or slightly better) SP making the league minimum to be of great value Milone does have limited upside.
And I think Sickels is right, Mike Napoli is helping make Derek Norris look sexy! He deserves credit for improving his defense to the point where he’s a viable option to start but a .210 batting average gives pause.
I think ultimately Boston would balk at allowing so much young upside leave the system; in which case finding a cheap, league average SP might be a necessity.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I agree that certainty has its place, but I don't
think it has much of a place on a team rebuilding from scratch. Sure if I’m the Yankees and I could find a 2.5 WAR starting pitcher who’s got lots of certainty I’d value him.
Secondly, risk is a two way street. These guys could easily surprise to the upside as to the downside. Sickels is pretty conservative with grading of low level guys.
I understand the risk of failure is high. That’s exactly why you need more high upside prospects — so that at least a few pan out. I don’t care if 75% of them fail. If we can get three 5+ WAR players out of say….12 high upside prospects we will have done very well and we’ll have half the core of a pretty good team.
I don’t see how exchanging say 6 guys with a 25% chance of being all-stars for 6 guys with a 100% chance of being second division starters or role players helps you build a championship team in 2015.
I also understand that the risk of failure statistically may be more than 75%, maybe it’s 90%. That’s where your scouting and player development skills come into play. You need to beat the odds to be a champion, even if you have the higher revenue stream from a new stadium.
Just saying the odds are low and therefore we shouldn’t try isn’t going to win any titles.
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 21, 2011 7:55 AM PST up reply actions
I tried to read your reply but couldn't follow
Too many numbers, not enough caffeine.
Just didn’t like the implication that acquiring B grade guys from the upper minors leads to 74 Win seasons.
Anywho… I think the general theme of mostly ignoring immediate big league production is the correct one and will adjust my wishlists accordingly.
The monster at the end of this blog.
this comes back to scouting
And the above conversation really doesn’t tell us what we need to know about either package.
To me, if you’re talking about undervalued skills, you need to look at scouts. A few years ago, Michael Lewis pointed out to me in an interview that there is no statistical chart on the failure or success rate of major league scouts (or, if you want to add them in, statistical analyzers). Seems to me that if the A’s were to undertake a study, or pay for one, then certain scouts (and statistical experts) would probably stand out, and it’s those guys the A’s should target immediately. Then you get your percentage of success raised. Nobody is doing this, and scouting/analyzing is still an arcane field.
I thought about doing something like you suggest
But it’s a mess of data to go through and I’ve been feeling lazy.
The monster at the end of this blog.
LAZY? That's a lot of work.
I can’t even comprehend the effort required to do this.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
The A's would have to pay someone
The only way such a study would be effective is if it was undertaken by one club (i.e. the Oakland A’s) and the results kept confidential. In fact, given that the A’s would be raiding other teams, you wouldn’t even want members of your own staff to know the existence of the study.
For all we know, the Rays have already done this, which is why their scouting is so good.
I dont think you can do a study
It isn’t just one scout who does the whole thing. So much is how the entire baseball operations team works together.
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Wow, if you're giving me that much from the first group, I'll take it every day and twice on Sundays.
Although I don’t know much about Raul Alcantara. Everyone says he has a high ceiling, but his secondary pitches don’t seem to show the raw potential to develop into plus offerings that define someone with ace upside. This Sox prospect site says he has a high ceiling but also calls him a potential #3 starter which is slightly puzzling.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 20, 2011 9:35 PM PST up reply actions
His description sounds more like a 3rd starter than an ace
Maybe they think that’s a high ceiling.
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 9:41 PM PST up reply actions
Alcantara is 19
I’ve never understood how you could place a hard cap on a kid’s breaking ball.
The monster at the end of this blog.
That's a good general rule for most pitching prospects, but if you're going to convince me a pitching prospect currently has ace upside,
he needs to show more raw ability right now. Alcantara doesn’t throw particularly hard, and his middling K rates in age appropriate leagues confirm the current mediocre state of his secondary offerings.
Regardless, even if you give me nothing besides the top 3, I’d still take it over the Washington package.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 20, 2011 9:51 PM PST up reply actions
You might, but Beane's history says he'd prefer the Nats' package
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 9:57 PM PST up reply actions
Cole's season does show signs of Ace potential
Boston’s is the sexy option… although I’m not too sure how keen they’d be to let the A’s run wild through their low minor rosters.
The monster at the end of this blog.
The gap between us and Texas in 3-4 years is very different than it is today
Pujols ages, C.J. Wilson is an unknown commodity. Its impossible to determine at this point. But we certainly do not need to close any gaps in 2012, they are “uncloseable” so to speak. So it does no good to have Cahill, and even if Parker is a 1.0 WAR improvement it makes no difference at all next year.
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
That's not what he's saying
Cowgill and Cook do nothing to close the gap now and can’t be expected to help close the gap later. If the A’s had gotten some A-ball prospects in lieu of Cowgill and Cook they wouldn’t help close the gap now but might be able to close the gap later.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Dec 20, 2011 10:15 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I am fine with that though.
To me Cowgill fills a present need in the sense that we do need people playing right now and is hopefully a useful backup piece then. Cook is just a who knows. I don’t value relievers highly. But to me, having Parker later, closes the gap more then than having Cahill now has any function.
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
You hate Cahill, which is obvious but besides the point
The A’s can spend money to fill present need. Long term need requires significant investment, either in cash (which the A’s don’t have) or prospects. Cowgill prevents the A’s from acquiring the prospects necessary for long term growth.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I agree the deal could've been better
I really don’t hate Cahill. I hate the idea that he is a #2 starter. I was a very big fan of his signing the long-term deal, because that to me was great value for an innings-eater which is something I see as overlooked in its high level of value.
That said, I don’t see Cowgill as preventing us from acquiring prospects, and I also think he could actually turn out to be a useful piece. But I agree some higher upside lower level guys likely would’ve sweetened the pot.
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Cowgill's presence prevented Oakland
from acquiring young, low level talent in the AZ trade. How can you not see what’s already happened?
The monster at the end of this blog.
I get what you're saying
I am not as down on Cowgill as you are, but you are right there is an opportunity cost.
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
If the A's compromised a large part of Cahill's value just to get a body in the outfield for next season,
that’s such a horrible use of resources that I can’t even find words strong enough to condemn it. I sure hope they traded for Cowgill because they’re convinced that he can provide significant value when they’re ready to compete.
There’s plenty of cheap outfielders left that they could sign. There’ll be plenty of cheap, backup quality outfielders available when they’re ready to compete. Shit, sign grover and throw him out there before you throw away another valuable piece for something so easily attained.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 20, 2011 10:46 PM PST up reply actions
I'm both mildly offended and humbly pleased by this comment
It implies I’d be a horrible choice and would hurt the A’s… but I’m too focused on the half million league minimum salary and the groupies to care.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I think what I meant wasn't clear
I think that Cowgill does provide current value, however I think that Cowgill also has the potential for upside. So I think he fits two goals at once possibly.
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
I think we have seen the best we will see out of Cahill
That is correct.
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
What numbers in the lottery should I bet tomorrow?
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
That I don't know
I’d ask you the same but I already know they won’t be right.
The monster at the end of this blog.
We can't all be you I guess.
What a shame.
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
are you talking about
starting the season 6-0 or going 0-9 following the six wins?
by heartstopper on Dec 23, 2011 3:17 PM PST up reply actions
If the goal is to just get whatever point nth% WAR improvement, whether now or in the future,
sure, go crazy trading your most valuable commodities for whatever incremental improvement you can find. But that’s just aimless trading with no end goal. I use the Bailey for Reddick (or any other random 3rd or 4th outfielder) example a lot, not as an insult to the guy who originally proposed it, but because it’s a perfect example of this line of thinking.
I can’t predict what’s going to happen 4 minutes from now, let alone 4 years from now, but that doesn’t mean we can’t make an educated guess. All it takes is a quick look and Texas’s resources and minor league system to get a sense of that.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 20, 2011 10:32 PM PST up reply actions
The point is this
What is the value of having Cahill on the 2012, 2013, 2014 A’s at how much he is being paid? Is that worthwhile or is it better to deal him now, get pieces that can be useful later etc?
I’m not saying let’s make uneducated guesses. Texas could very well NOT be as good as they are now. Who looked at Boston and said that Crawford would flop miserably and they’d lose out the wild card? Look how quickly the White Sox fortunes changed. Shoot one can say that about us too. This time last year didn’t look like we were going to be selling off Gio/Cahill. But the point is, we aren’t going to be a competitive team in 2012 unless a ton of things go wrong for all three of the other teams and an educated guess says that won’t happen, so why hold assets that aren’t beneficial?
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
If you think my point is that I didn't want to trade Cahill and rebuild because I'm worried about being competitive in 2012, then clearly I wasted my time here.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 21, 2011 12:40 AM PST up reply actions
You continue to miss my point that I don't see it as an incremental change.
While you miss my point though, I’m not really being an asshole about it. I guess until now, maybe that’ll be missed.
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
I see it as an incremental change
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 21, 2011 10:03 PM PST up reply actions
I'm not at all surprised they're selling off Gio and Cahill
It’s what would have inevitably happened if the team didn’t look like a contender in 2012 and even in the 2010-11 offseason they didn’t look like a 2012 contender unless a couple of things happened:
1) The pitching staff was dominant and healthy (could have conceivably happened but I thought it was overrated coming into 2011)
2) They won a lot of close games and won 88+ games in 2011 (could have conceivably happened but didn’t)
3) Carter or someone like that took a big step forward and combined with Barton to be a good middle of the order combo
4) Pennington, Kouzmanoff, Ellis/Weeks, Sweeney, Suzuki were 3+ WAR players
Then you fill a couple of OF holes with FA and you’re all set to contend in 2012. Needless to say that didn’t happen and there was always a pretty strong chance it wouldn’t happen
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 21, 2011 7:30 AM PST up reply actions
Also...
Given the A’s low payroll, and continued low payroll, the idea of using Cahill’s salary as a determining factor here strikes me as shilling for ownership. Other arguments - that Parker has more upside, that Cowgill is an undiscovered gem, etc. - at least have real baseball heft, whether accurate or not. But just as people here don’t care whether I spend my thousand dollars for seats, I don’t care whether John Fisher spends an extra million or two on player salary.
If the A’s can’t afford Cahill at his current contract, they should immediately sell the team, San Jose or no San Jose. The argument is bogus.
I don't know
(throws up hands in despair, breaks down sobbing)
tko bira, masturbira -- elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 4:02 PM PST up reply actions
The Cahill trade looks to me like
the Mulder, Hudson, and Haren trades in spirit, albeit at a smaller scale.
We traded away a guy in his prime, but instead of getting young prospects with high upside, we got near-ready guys who are within a year of starting in the MLB.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Definitely like the Hudson deal, where they got back a cheaper Mulder in
Meyer and two major league role players. Mulder netted the cheaper Hudson in Haren, a major league role player in Calero and an A ball prospect in Barton.
tko bira, masturbira -- elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 4:04 PM PST up reply actions
don't forget
mulder didn’t have much success after being traded due to his injuries.
by heartstopper on Dec 23, 2011 3:20 PM PST up reply actions
I'm not sure I buy the notion (be it pitchers or position players)
that the A’s don’t want “major league ready talent” right now. A guy who is thought to be “major league ready” can be started in AAA, brought up mid-year to begin his service clock in 2013, get his “growing pains” out of the way in 2013 and blossom in 2014-17. Perfect timing. It’s getting guys who already have a couple years of service time accrued that’s problematic.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
There's no harm in being "major league ready" but it's a lot harder to get
multiple future starters for one major league player if you trade that way. You’re going to get the Colin Cowgills and Ryan Sweeneys and not the Daric Bartons, Fautino do los Santos’s and Brett Andersons.
The Rangers trade of Teixeira to the Braves was so good because they took 2 advanced prospects in Matt Harrison and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (2 B prospects by Sickels in AA)who have turned into somewhat useful players and two high upside low level guys — Elvis Andrus (B+ in A+) and Neftali Feliz (C+ in Rookie Ball), who have turned into All-Stars.
Instead of Andrus they could have taken the more advanced B+ guy (Eric Campbell).
Instead of Feliz they could have taken the more advanced C+ guys (Anthony Lerew in AAA, Jo-Jo Reyes in AA, Kevin Gunderson in AA, Kala Ka’aihue in AA, Kris Medlen in A+)
You pay for “proximity to the majors” by getting a less talented guy.
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 6:26 PM PST up reply actions
Being almost ready for the Show isn't the problem
Being a nearly ready for the Show 4th OFer is the problem.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Yes if they were going to get 2 C+ guys why not Kyle Winkler and Chris Owings?
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 6:49 PM PST up reply actions
these are all rebuilding trades.
The difference of course is with Haren and Cahill you had cost control for years. The Rays don’t trade their young cost controlled assets, they keep them and develop more. We trade them with regularity and are trying to trade Gio now (who was the result of the Swisher trade, another young star under contract for a few years at a reasonable price). These are “rebuilding” trades. That is why Blue Moon has seen this cycle before Swisher→wait a few years→Wow Gio is pretty good, now trade him for prospects, wait a few years, and…
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 20, 2011 6:30 PM PST up reply actions
Wow. And wow. What an awesome comment!
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 3:55 PM PST up reply actions
That is false.
Brandon Allen’s 18th deck shot at Yankee Stadium just landed this morning.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Not quite true.
There was an unexplained crater, that it is assumed to have been cause by that HR.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
Was it Chris Crater?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
My sense (or at least my own experience)
is that the anger isn’t that the A’s are truly rebuilding and will suck for a while, but rather that it took them so long to do it that now we have to endure several terrible years following 5 really mediocre ones.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
That, too
Though the larger problem is they had periods where they probably should have begun the rebuilding process but thought they’d be good enough to compete for the division and failed miserably to actually do so.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
They were in better shape before they made the Holliday trade.
They have been slow to renew the process.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
I agree with everything except this.
And do you want to know why the A’s never been that bad and never committed to a true rebuild? It’s for exactly the reasons that today’s fans are complaining that the team is neglecting. It’s because the A’s were determined to try to put a decent team on the field year after year, because the A’s aren’t willing to ever plumb the depths of being really really bad, because the A’s are desperately afraid of losing those season ticket holders who might bolt if
the team ever did a true rebuild.
I don’t know why Season ticket holders would revolt over watching good young players turn into stars. They are typically pretty knowledgeable baseball fans, so something about appeasing the season ticket base with window dressing rings hollow. The window dressing doesn’t really work. Hell everyone on this blog knew that DeJesus and Willingham weren’t our ticket to a world series title, and we all knew that most of our OF would be gone.
This is the line that we are fed, I don’t believe it is true. I believe it is to save money and tread water until San Jose. I believe building a consistent winner in Oakland is not something management really wanted, because it could seriously affect plans to move to San Jose and the long-term vision and profits of the franchise management. The “win now” moves have the bonus of making it look like you are committing to winning, but trading for one year of Holliday has the bonus of being able to flip him and continue the cycle. Trading for Willingham and DeJesus didn’t really cost any prospects of note.
I guess it is just the “why” part of it that I think there is a little bit more to that.
Very solid comment though, and rec’d. Overall, yes, they never did commit to a rebuild.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 20, 2011 5:30 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I keep wondering about 2009
It was such an odd choice: trading away CarGon and bringing in Holliday, then the other vets, when the pitching staff was utterly young and inexperienced. (Then, of course, there was also a lousy manager to contend with as well). Trading Street for another young player or two would have worked fine. Letting CarGon play the outfield and keeping Anderson and Cahill in the minors for another half-season would have worked fine.
If Beane and company blamed the moves on keeping season ticket holders happy, then that’s a load of crap. We had seen bad teams, and expected to see a bad team. In fact, had Beane kept Holliday all year and gotten the two drafts picks, that would have made sense. But he compounded his mistake by trading Holliday for Wallace and then flipping Wallace for Taylor.
I dunno.
Had Taylor picked up where he left off at the time of the trade, we’d be pretty happy with how Beane recovered from his gaffe. The gaffe was making the Holliday trade in the first place, after spouting earlier how important it was to “stay the course” on the rebuilding. He should have listened to himself.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I think in 2009 they thought they were good enough
to have a crap shoot at the playoffs. In retrospect, it didn’t work out, but I think that was the plan. I think they took a shot on 2009 because they didn’t want to keep dragging out the perpetual reload. Instead they took a gamble and lost.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Plus they thought that if they were out of contention in July they could trade
Holliday for a similar package that they traded for him. That part was not true
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 9:35 PM PST up reply actions
Oh come on: Holliday, Taylor
Only their mothers can tell them apart!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Gonzalez v Taylor
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 9:56 PM PST up reply actions
They also saw weakness in the division
As we’ve seen, things can change quickly. The current situation is a case in point – suddenly it looks like LA and Texas are going to be impossible to beat for the foreseeable future. They saw an opening, thought they had just enough bullets to go for it, and took a shot. I thought it was a good gamble at the time but it just didn’t work out. Shit like that happens.
by thelincolndude on Dec 20, 2011 9:47 PM PST up reply actions
Hindsight is not analysis
Taylor was a B+, borderline A- hitting prospect at the time. That’s worth so much more than two sandwich picks, it’s not even funny.
It is not a “mistake” to make a percentage play that works out poorly in hindsight. (Now, the trade for Holliday… that wasn’t dumb in hindsight, it was dumb as soon as it happened. Though I have to say that very few people here thought so at the time!)
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Would it have been, if the FO made a serious run at signing him long term, and succeeded?
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
Agreed on the Holliday trade PT
I never understood that move for the A’s. Why haven’t you been posting at Minorleagueball recently?
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Dec 21, 2011 9:23 PM PST up reply actions
I mostly go there for (relatively) objective analysis of A's prospects
and the last couple of years, the A’s “prospects” have been so awful that it’s not even worth bothering; I want them to succeed and even I can’t get to yes, no matter how hard I squint at the numbers.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
When you say Taylor was a B+, borderline A-, whose opinion are you using?
Transactions analysis is a lot more than looking up Sickels’ or some other guy’s rating on the internet and checking with BTFS what that player is worth.
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 21, 2011 10:02 PM PST up reply actions
It was a consensus rating
Sickels, BA, BP and milb.com all rated him in (loosely) the #20-30 overall range.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
You're right on the point that
demand is more elastic with the per-game ticket buyers than the season ticket holders, so while I think it’s true the organization was afraid to rebuild for fear of losing sales if the team got really bad, I shouldn’t have emphasized the season-ticket holders over other fans in that context.
I don’t agree with the rest, though. Particularly the implication that the A’s would actually prefer not to win in Oakland for fear it would slow down the move to San Jose.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
But the A's tried winning in Oakland.
Lest you forget, they reached the ALCS in ‘06. Where were the fans? Attendance was awful that year. If you really buy into some theory that all Wolff cares about is moving to San Jose, than the ’06 season cemented in his mind the notion that Oakland simply won’t support the A’s, win or lose.
"The Lord has blessed us with birthday cake!"
The attendance was pretty good when they were winning consistently
2006 attendance was bad but sustained competitive teams builds a fan base. One great year helps.
It was pretty obvious during that season that we were going to lose a lot of core pieces at the end of the year and our best players were not going to stay (Zito, Thomas, etc.)
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 21, 2011 9:41 AM PST up reply actions
nothing wrong with Z going
glas he did in retrospect.
by heartstopper on Dec 23, 2011 3:23 PM PST up reply actions
I meant "one great year helps" but it doesn't really last unless it's reinforced
the cycle of trading away your best players and bringing in players on one year contracts will never motivate a fan base. Part of the Giants’ appeal was the attachment to the individual players.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 21, 2011 9:42 AM PST up reply actions
Very cool post...
Rather than adding any hitters to this year’s squad, I’d like to see Carter and Allen get 500 ABs.
Isn't this "linear" relationship somewhat a circular argument, since wOBA is based on linear weights?
You’re testing that wOBA is in fact based on linear weights, which in fact it is.
Doesn’t Custom Base Runs show that the value of 2B, 3B and HR is noticeably higher for very low OBA (say under .200) and very high OBA (say over .400). Isn’t the idea that linear weights “works” based on an assumption that major league players generally have an OBA between .300 and .400?
Taken to a ridiculous extreme, a HR is worth 1 Run if it is the only baserunner in the game, but it is worth more than that if it is the only hit in the game, half of the other players walk and half of them strike out.
It seems like the people who are arguing that intuitively power is more valuable for high OBA teams are right if the OBA is either really close to .000 or really close to .500. The reason linear weights works pretty well is that no real major league team fits those descriptions.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
Sorry that should say "noticeably different" not "noticeably higher"
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 7:42 AM PST up reply actions
Not quite.
I’m testing if runs scored can be more accurately modeled in a non-linear fashion, wrt ISO. Obviously it’s non-linear at the extremes, but is the portion of the curve that matters (wOBA between .280 and .380) linear?
I thought you were testing "Expected Runs" as predicted by wOBA. Is that not true?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 9:30 AM PST up reply actions
Nope.
I was using that as a baseline to hold everything except ISO constant, so I could test for the presence of any non-linearity in runs scored with respect to ISO.
Ah sorry. I see now. I should read carefully and appreciate before typing.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 9:39 AM PST up reply actions
Thanks!
BTW the portion of the Custom Base Runs charts between .280 and .380 aren’t exactly linear. They are still slightly curved, but it’s almost flat.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 9:50 AM PST up reply actions
yea whatever
Whether or not power is more important, blah blah blah, the bottom line though is that you need something. If not power, than speed, if not speed, then on-base percentage, if not on-base percentage than slugging percentage. Or… you could be the A’s and get rid of all their useful players and replace them with a bunch of .220 hitters with no power and no speed.
by BrianJ12 on Dec 20, 2011 7:45 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
I agree it's somewhat of a nitpicky response to say that "we don't need power, we need good hitters"
In general good hitters have power and powerful hitters are good. Looking for exceptions like Mark Trumbo and Ichiro Suzuki to me isn’t that productive and can be annoying.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 7:48 AM PST up reply actions
Looking at it another way, a horny guy could say, "Man I need a supermodel right now!"
A stathead might respond, “No what you need is an attractive woman who wants you. A supermodel could be a lesbian or married or an Amazon”. It’s nitpicky.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 7:56 AM PST up reply actions
For every dilemma, there is a Croatian proverb
In this case – tko bira, masturbira
Basically, it warns of dangers of being to choosy when horny…
by elcroata on Dec 20, 2011 2:02 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
None of us speak Croation to ensure he is feeding us legit proverbs ;) haha
Isn’t that right elcroata?
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
Close enough to Russian that I'll vouch for him
Reminds me of the song Onanist by the Russian band DDT.
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Dec 20, 2011 3:30 PM PST up reply actions
New sigline!
tko bira, masturbira -- elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 3:58 PM PST up reply actions
It's a proverb, though.
When you attribute it, it looks like you’re saying it’s original with EC.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Fixed
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 4:08 PM PST up reply actions
Pretty much just like it looks.
The letter “i” always sounds like “ee”. The “a” and “u” sound like “ah” and “oo”.
No surprises with the consonants here.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Just like "Petco" without the "Pe"
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
That's a classic market inefficiency.
A horny guy may think he needs a supermodel, but he would get more bang for his buck with a regular woman. A supermodel may have more total value, but a much higher proportion of her value is locked in her look-at-pictures-of-her component, whereas a non-supermodel’s value is weighted more toward her tactile and emotional-support components. Therefore, a horny guy with limited resources can use them more efficiently if he slots the supermodel for the role of visual stimulation and pursues an actual relationship with a normal woman.
Most men understand this instinctively, which is why it is typically the younger or less experienced horny guys who think a supermodel is what they actually want in real life, as opposed to just in fantasy leagues.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
I seem to remember that this was discussed somewhere else
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Dec 20, 2011 3:36 PM PST up reply actions
Wasn't this Kinda Like One Thing Beane Said?
He said he valued players who got on base regularly and hit for contact, more then sluggers like Bonds.
Bad example.
Bonds got on base more than anybody, like, ever.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Yes I hope he never actually said that. What he might have said was that high OBP, low SLG
hitters with no other tools were more valuable than their pricing in the marketplace.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 8:34 AM PST up reply actions
Well,
To quote the exact article,
“Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane thinks solid hitters like Scott Hatteberg are more valuable than homerun kings.”
But yeah, Bonds was a bad example, since he got on base at an insane clip. Just take a look at his 2004 season: 232 walks, .609 OBP. I must have “misremembered” the article.
Boy, looking at Bonds’ stats from the 1980’s and 1990’s really shows that even though steroids turned him into a homerun monster, he had incredible ability as a mustached man who regularly hit for a .400 OBP clip.
by Sean Fortuna on Dec 21, 2011 2:28 AM PST up reply actions
If Beane really thinks Hatteberg is more valuable than anyone who's in the top 100 HR
hitters in MLB history he’s an idiot. I’m not a big fan of Beane but he’s not that stupid.
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 21, 2011 7:20 AM PST up reply actions
Which article is this?
Who are you quoting?
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
I Read It In A Times Almanac
2006, by Jeremy Caplan.
by Sean Fortuna on Dec 22, 2011 2:06 AM PST up reply actions
I agree, dan, that a power hitter isn't necessary to turn the team around.
However, the rebuild needs to be balanced. We need all types of good hitters, including power hitters, Swingle hitters, etc. I know it’s early, but so far, it’s been a “meh” rebuild.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
Yes, "meh"
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 9:09 AM PST up reply actions
That's exactly what I'm arguing against.
We don’t need all types of good hitters. There’s no “balance” to strive for. Just go for the best hitters, period.
If we have the choice between two equally good hitters, where one is a power hitter, why not pick the one that you don't have in stock?
I’m not saying to pick a power hitter, just because we don’t have one.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
I guess if you thought power would be more entertaining...
But I think it would be a better idea to look at every other thing first. Speed, defense, health, age, contract status. I dunno… attitude? If players have the exact same wOBA then why does it matter?
Are you saying there is no difference between Pojols and any other hitter with the same wOBA?
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
I'm not sure I understand what you're getting at.
A player with Pujols’ wOBA would be just as good offensively as Pujols, but they might do it differently. For example Tris Speaker had a higher average but lower slugging and was roughly just as good offensively.
If we ahve to choose between two equally good hitters, why not choose the cheaper one?
Or the younger one?
"The Lord has blessed us with birthday cake!"
When was the last time we had two good hitters to choose from???
The monster at the end of this blog.
Travis Buck, and Eric Patterson?
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
At this point, I think you and dan should fight it out in a battle to the death.
"The Lord has blessed us with birthday cake!"
Kouz earned more money
I win.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
Playing a little fast and loose with the word "earned," aren't you?
"The Lord has blessed us with birthday cake!"
No different than every other worker in this world.
They agreed to pay him.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
You leave hookers out of this
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
We're all hookers.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
No, the fact that we all have STDs
and low self-esteem doesn’t make us hookers. Though the sex with anonymous people for pay might.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
and...?
I destroyed my body in the construction industry. Whats the diff?
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
Hmm...
Woman who accepts money in exchange for sexual services…Guy who destroys his body in the construction industry.
Really can’t pinpoint any differences, sorry.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
But
By definition “the best hitters” are guys who hit for power.
If you look at leaders for RC+ on Fangraphs, they’re all slugging .500 or better.
The only guy in the top 20 who didn’t slug .500 is Reyes, and he slugged .493.
I get your point that we don’t need guys who only offer us ISO without getting on base. But it’s disingenuous to suggest the better hitters aren’t the guys collecting XBH.
That's not the point he's making.
Those guys hit for power because they’re good.
They’re not good because they hit for power.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
I thought he was making the point that hitting for power was only one component
of being good, and not a necessary component.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 9:44 AM PST up reply actions
This, exactly.
Power is great, don’t get me wrong, but a .350 wOBA guy with no power is more valuable than a .340 guy with it.
But DavidS's point is that the best hitters all have power so your point, while
mathematically accurate isn’t particularly relevant to the actual population of good hitters that exist in MLB today.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 9:47 AM PST up reply actions
Perhaps.
This was mostly academic, to be sure. But the Trumbo example still holds. Below average wOBA (by 1B standards) with a .223 ISO.
So if a hitter is good he probably has power unless he's Ichiro but if
he has power he is also probably good unless he’s Mark Trumbo or Mark Reynolds or Vernon Wells?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 9:57 AM PST up reply actions
Willy Mo Pena!
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
I guess I should have said
Just go for the best hitters we can get, period. I’d love a Pujols-level .320/.450/.600 like the next guy, but that’s not happening.
Elcroata did a post on this a few months back that really drove this point home
Of course, as you mention below, it’s largely academic because in practice there aren’t that many good hitters that don’t hit for some power.
Even Jemile Weeks had a solid SLG.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 20, 2011 11:14 AM PST up reply actions
Having a sold SLG doesn't necessarily indicate power.
Getting lots of singles will fatten up your SLG.
"The Lord has blessed us with birthday cake!"
Agreed.
However, Weeks’ ISO would have been the 26th lowest in MLB if he had enough AB’s to qualify for a batting title, yet his SLG was much better than anyone in the bottom 30 (except for Kotchman). I guess my point is really that for this particular discussion, I think ISO is a better metric than SLG.
"The Lord has blessed us with birthday cake!"
Yep, that's why I chose ISO here.
To separate out the batting average portion of slugging percentage.
Some questions
Are there differences in the correlations between team runs and OBA before and after the steroid era?
Can you calculate the ratio of team OBA/ERA vs wins and compare that to the Pythagorean theorem?
Do the ratio calculations address team balance more so than the Pythagorean theorem?
Nope.
Broke the data set into 2000-2005 and 2006-2011. R2 for the first group is 0.913. Second group is 0.915.
But I don’t have any pitching stats in the data set unfortunately.
Are you saying the steroid era ended in 2005?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 9:32 AM PST up reply actions
Not if your data set is from 2000 to 2011. 1990 to 2000 might be different than
2000 to 2011 though. The correlation between wRC+ and OBP was higher in the 1990s than the correlation between wRC+ and SLG, while the reverse was true in the 2000s
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 9:42 AM PST up reply actions
The correlation is the same but I would assume that the runs were greater durring the steriod age?
Is this telling us that the ratio of Runs/ERA is what is important?
I'm posting this with the new Android app
Yay! Mmmm, they need to make it so you can flip the comment screen horizontal.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
by Flashfire on Dec 20, 2011 9:44 AM PST via Android app reply actions
Would also be nice if the display could go horizontal.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
by Flashfire on Dec 20, 2011 9:45 AM PST via Android app up reply actions
Back to the CPU
The app displays posts well and shows the threading reasonably, too. It also works nicely for finding unread comments. I like. Just asked Blez about the lack of horizontal design.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Yes
It has a semi-transparent button at the bottom you can tap to cycle through unread posts, plus more at the top to let you refresh for new comments.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I see there's also a Twitter-app-like way you can slide the top of the AN page down slightly to refresh the topics for new comments and such.
Doesn’t look like it tells you which posts have new ones based on that, though.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
what about how power, or having it on your team
is probably the central factor in drawing casual fans easily enamored of the spectacle of home runs, and how the factor of those extra fans in the stands on a consistent basis provides for the other players in a lineup possibly performing better at their strengths given the added excitement “jazz” quotient of playing to a packed house, or at least a more packed house? I’ve heard players — and not just slugger types either — say that again and again, that the bigger the crowd, the more intense the home field atmosphere gets and the better they feel they play as a result.
Can we make a metric for that? Or do we have to wait until Larry Baer finds Jesus for that too? I am just asking.
Death seed
blind man's greed
poets starve and children bleed
nothing he's got
he really needs
21st Century schizoid man.
by emperor nobody on Dec 20, 2011 10:19 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
People care about winzzzzz
If a team isn’t winning, then power isn’t a bad plan for drawing fans to the spectacle. But, it’s still gotta be of the non-Trumbo types.
"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer
by cuppingmaster on Dec 20, 2011 10:35 AM PST up reply actions
I actually think people are more excited by balls in play than by HR.
The ‘80s Cards had very little power and drew lots of casual fans and won lots of games. Two of the most popular players here over the past 40 years were Ozzie Smith and Lou Brock, neither of whom had much power. Ditto the 1960s Dodgers drew very well and their most famous hitter was probably Maury Wills. And I don’t think I need to tell anyone here that the most popular player in Oakland A’s history was Rickey Henderson. This idea that casual fans dig the long ball is something I only started hearing about in the 1990s
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 12:48 PM PST up reply actions
You bet we do!
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 1:04 PM PST up reply actions
you should note that in practice this isn't actually true
as the new slugger is likely to be replacing someone who slugged less on a team of .400 than he would be replacing on a team that slugged .600
the only way your conclusion (and by this i mean your title) is true is if he replaces the same crappy player on both teams, which shouldn’t be considered the norm.
i.e. if he replaces a team average player (.400 slugging vs .600 slugging) on both teams the effect on runs scored will be greater on the crappy team. if he replaces a crappy player (.200 slugging) on both teams then, yes his effect is the same on both teams
as a note, your analysis of linear runs being added etc i agree with, but you skip a step from that to your “conclusion” (title)
I like power
I like a baseball team with some power. So many games are won with one crack of the bat - one mistake by a pitcher in a pitcher’s duel. I know it doesn’t pencil out in a stat graph-metrix overthink. There is also a psychological effect of having power bats that does influence the outcome of games.
Just my opinion.
I think that goes back to, with the rare exception, powerful hitters are good hitters
Having a power hitter may influence you to intentionally walk him in a tight game (but walks also show up on stat sheets). It might also influence you to try to pitch around him, or make you nervous and make a bad pitch that gets knocked out…but all that is reflected in wOBA.
There aren’t that many bad hitters that hit 30 bombs, almost none.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 20, 2011 12:12 PM PST up reply actions
See what I said to richwol1 below.
Any psychological effect would also show up in the data. It doesn’t.
How about correlating late inning home runs with winning games?
I’m not clear on a way to do that.
You could comb through game logs, pulling any game that had a HR in innings 7-9.
But that wouldn’t tell you much of anything. Of course a team will have a higher winning percentage if they hit a HR in innings 7-9. Just like they’d have a higher winning percentage among all games with a home run, or all games where the pitcher struck out 9, etc etc etc.
I think you're looking more for the probability of two events occurring in succession
Cuz your argument is that you need more than one event to win the game. 2 or 3 hits.
But the point is, if you get the runs early you don’t need this home run late.
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And a win in April is as important as a win in September
I understand that argument but I think, in the context of any given game, you want to be in position to win the game in the late innings if you have to.
But then you'd want a power guy everywhere in your lineup and one on your bench.
What good is it if you have the one big power hitter and he is up 4th, and the game is on the line with 7-8-9 due up?
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..then you're screwed
What can I say? Obviously the stars have to have some alignment.
But then why have one power bat, that sacrifices the runs you score in advance of that situation?
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
Because each game isn't a statistic
It’s a tiny sample size. You can’t project that a team will score runs early, or score enough runs to get a big enough lead early enough. Each game is different.
But that is exactly my point
You want to invest in a strategy that may come to fruition very rarely. Where a big power bat is needed. I am saying, that every game is a tiny sample size, so over the course of 162 I want to do what best helps my team. That is why power from one dude isn’t as important.
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
Yes to all this, but....
It seems to me that one difference between having a power hitter at the plate and someone who walks a lot and gets loads of singles is that when you’re down two runs, and it’s the top of the ninth, one swing can win the game. In the long term, looking at years of statistics, that simple fact may not matter, but in that single situation, it seems pretty obvious that you can buck those odds to a greater degree if the guy’s a power hitter. Also, when you’ve got a power hitter up, the pitcher is less likely to groove the ball, and worst case scenario, the guy walks.
The times when these things happen are pretty infrequent, I’ll admit, but over the course of a season you could be talking about five to ten games where this situation is relevant, and those games could make a huge difference in the final outcome of a season.
If you're down two runs in the top of the 9th
and no one’s on base, Trumbo is definitely NOT the guy you want up! And a hitter like Trumbo manages to combine good power with very few BBs. Sort of like how Dave Kingman used to be.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Also, you might be down by 3 or more runs because that one guy didn't get on base and ended the inning
"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer
by cuppingmaster on Dec 20, 2011 1:38 PM PST up reply actions
There's an argument for having someone on the bench with high ISO
so they can pinch hit in those kinds of situations: late game, runners on, need an XBH to tie or go ahead. But that’s not the kind of thing a bad team like the A’s can afford to worry about.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Yes, but...
I didn’t base the data off of a theoretical construct. I’m looking at actual runs scored. If what you’re saying has an effect…it’d show up. It doesn’t.
Same, but I hate a lot of the comments.
by NateHST on Dec 20, 2011 1:58 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Why would you hate a lot of the comments?
As dan said at the beginning.
I know this topic has been pretty much beaten to death in sabermetric circles, but there’s no problem with re-testing those conclusions and bringing it to a different audience. So here we go.
This is somewhat new to a few of us, and I, for one, am trying to get a handle on it. This doesn’t mean mean I am stupid, or annoying.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
The comments have nothing to do with the great subject matter
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I miss understood Nate's comment, then.
I thought he was showing a dislike for those who had tried to stick with the discussion, but disagreed.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
Yeah. I don't know how the topic on the value of power devolved into
another shit-fest about how much the A’s hate A’s fans, but it definitely happened. Again.
I hate both of you.
Because you are A’s fans.
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
You damned A's Fans... I hate you All!!
But, I <3 the A’s!
"You can attract a hitter but you can't make him hit" -Lou Wolff
by Geronimo Berroa on Dec 20, 2011 4:05 PM PST up reply actions
One would presume yes...
And, It would be Linear.
Nice Article Btw… I dig it even though I stopped paying attention to math when it started having letters with the numbers.
I’ll say this about “Power”. When the A’s have a runner on a 2nd and a base hit drives him in, I get off my ass and fist pump the shit out of the air no differently than if the Ball was jacked out of the yard.
All this belief that power is just found at the 7-11 and you can go in, swipe your pay pass, and BOOM you’ve got power is laughable. Just give me RUNS and I’m happy.
"You can attract a hitter but you can't make him hit" -Lou Wolff
by Geronimo Berroa on Dec 20, 2011 4:11 PM PST up reply actions
Sorry, Nate.
I still like KOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUZ!
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
Good post, dan.
Sometimes, it’s nice to see this sort of thing displayed graphically.
Get out the time-fracture wickets, Hobbes! We're gonna play Calvinball!
Lost in the nonsense...
that are the comments, which sadly afflict your awesome work too often. This is a great piece that talks about what matters, how to win baseball games.
Thank you Dan!
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
Truth. I don't know how many times I've gotten into this argument and tried to use the
“Nine Bartons” argument to explain my point (a couple days ago being the most recent). I’ll just link them this instead.
Versus the 9 Rob Deers
(or would it be Rob Deer)? Haha
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
Poor Bob Moose
tko bira, masturbira -- elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 4:00 PM PST up reply actions
Would the 9 Mike Rouse
Become 9 Mike Rice?
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
Would 9 Lance Berkmans be
9 Lance Berkmen?
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Just one i
It’s only Ausmii if the singular is Ausmius.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
So when I said me and my friend had Taurii when I was a teen I was wrong
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
Not if her name was really Taurii
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 4:10 PM PST up reply actions
HA!
No, it was a reference to our magnificent 1992 Ford Tauruses (I guess)
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
AWESOME factory hotrods!
Yamaha built the engines, right?
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
I think so.
Fastest car I’ve ever own to this day. Kept up with everything but a Camaro off a light. And I had mine in 1999-2000.
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
I was thinking of putting one of the SHO engines into my '64 Falcon Ranchero.
At 2400 lbs, it would have flown.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
Awesome!
Those things were amazing. Ford always had the great engines, the transmissions were terrible (why I had to get rid of it)
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I had read that I could mount it in front of a C-4 trans.
I’ve now decided to use the GXP running gear from a Pontiac Solstice. 265 HP/265 ft lbs/ 35+mpg
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
No problem. It may be a year or twu.
It’s at the bare metal stage. The Mustang II/ big brake front end is installed.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
Cool!
I’ve always wanted to be able to fix up cars and such. I can change headlights and thats about the extent of my automotive prowess, so much for being from Detroit in that respect. Haha
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I grew up repairing Studebakers, just to get to school.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
Stuudebakers?
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Cool stuff.
Either it was a classic car, or you grew up in Cuba.
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Oh, yeah!
My dad owns 3 Avantis. I had one that came stock with a T-10 4-speed, and a Paxton supercharger
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
Awesome. Nowadays can you even work on cars the same way with all the computer stuff?
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Some of it.
There are aftermarket companies who have come up with ways to get around the factory computer defaults.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
Student Bakers?
"You can attract a hitter but you can't make him hit" -Lou Wolff
by Geronimo Berroa on Dec 20, 2011 4:32 PM PST up reply actions
With the front bench seat...
8 cyl engine… my god what a lovely car. Somewhere I read they were going to become collector cars in like the 2020s haha
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Correct.
At least you could afford a car. When I was young I had to ride bi.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Many of us experimented with that in college.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Unless it's a 4th declension noun
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 4:10 PM PST up reply actions
True, but then the plural is just Ausmūs
Still wouldn’t be ii.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
I don't even know what declension is...
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Consider yourself blessed
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 4:15 PM PST up reply actions
Would 9 Elvis Andrus be
9 Elvis Andri?
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
by iglew on Dec 20, 2011 4:07 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Would 12 Hunter Pence
be a Hunter Shilling?
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
I think 9 Justin Morneau really would be 9 Justin Morneaux.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
This is very good
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 20, 2011 4:19 PM PST up reply actions
nice
My mannerism a prism/ And it should shine
Light it if you would/ Be so kind, right now'd
Be A' Good Time
by DaRubiesSLOKingsA's on Dec 20, 2011 4:19 PM PST up reply actions
~~
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
by iglew on Dec 20, 2011 4:21 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Would 9 Jemile Weeks be
2 Jemile Months?
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Would 9 Bartons be
the worst synchronized swimming team ever?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
really, if you followed directions from a trusted
and highly paid counselor, say myself for example, this so called “break” from AN duties would be that much more meaningful in practice. Just like the late what-ever leader of NKorea I would hate to read in AN that you met your demise from the huge physical and mental strain.
ack-A
Häägëñ Dääs
If Tim Tebow has a serious thought
is it a Christian Ponder?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
I'd like to see a match-up of
the Nine Berkmen against the Nine Kotchmen.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Is any other mod seeing hidden comments in this thread?
I’m showing one by dwishinsky and one by NateHST as hidden. Is that intentional?
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
I clicked unhide on them, appears fixed right?
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They're all showing unhidden for me now.
I wasn’t sure if maybe you hid them on purposes, but I didn’t see why. Maybe someone did it by accident?
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
It is quite possible when tabbing I accidentally did?
Was it me? (oops) Ironic given it was a comment by me and one in response to me haha.
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тко бира, мастурбира?
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Back in the past...
Remember months ago, when we looked at OBP and wins? Wasn’t there a positive correlation there? I think it was in a similar debate re: need for power/HRs. And the correlation between wins and home runs wasn’t there but I thought OBP and wins had a relatively strong one. Why then would the runs/OBP one strong at all? I have to assume runs/wins is strong, so by extension why a disconnect?
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The runs/OBP correlation isn't very strong at all.
R of 0.3 for 2011. wOBA/runs is very strong, but OBP/runs isn’t.
But then why was it that Wins and OBP was strong?
That seems strange.
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Wait a sec, how are you getting R of 0.3 correlating runs/OBP.
I’m getting R of .92, R-sq of .85.
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Dec 22, 2011 12:27 PM PST up reply actions
Tom Tango. so catchy.
I would consider that as a great alias the next time I make dinner reservations with a hot date…..“Tom Tango, table for two, Tom Tango please.”
ack-A
Häägëñ Dääs
Too bad that plan will never get to be tested. ;-(
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
"oh....ack_A, I had no idea of your real name you gave the hostess
Tom Tango….how romantic!"
ack-A
Häägëñ Dääs
Unrealistic
That’s not how trannies really talk.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Or twh/ss
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
When Suzuki is up with a runner in scoring position,
he thinks of something after hitting post? No wonder he sucks.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Somewhere, in some musical that I've forgotten,
there is a lyric that rhymes “species” with “he/she’s”. I think it’s Sondheim, but I’m not sure.
If anyone can identify the lyric and show, I would be very grateful. I’ve been trying to remember this for about two years now.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Alternate challenge:
Write a limerick that rhymes he/she’s, species, and Mitsubishis.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
There once was a species of he/shes,
who only drove used Mitsubishis
A tranny named Annie
said “Got a new tranny —
and not the car part!” Holy feces.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
If Billy B doesn't read this post thoroughly
he is not earning his salary and bonus money when the Profit Sharing check arrives.
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