What Can Gio Get?
by dwishinsky on Dec 18, 2011 9:04 AM PST
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The Mat Latos trade should be interesting to A's fans because of our interest in dealing Gio Gonzalez, who NOW seems like the best pitcher available on the market (up until two days ago it didn't seem that Latos was available, so now it is official that Gio is again the best available pitcher barring some other surprise). This trade is significant as what San Diego got back for Latos was Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal and Brad Boxberger (along with Edinson Volquez) the former three representing the Reds' #3, #4 and #10 prospects respectively as of a few weeks ago'sBaseball America listing. Billy Beane who has been asking for a lot from teams looks like he might be able to get it if a club is serious about getting a starting pitcher. Though there was some debate here yesterday about who is better, Gio or Latos, the numbers aren't even close. While Gio has more innings pitched than Latos (535 1/3, to 429 2/3) the numbers don't stack up all that well for Gio:
| K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WAR | |
| Latos | 8.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 3.37 | 3.28 | 3.51 | 7.3 |
| Gonzalez | 8.6 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 3.93 | 4.06 | 3.98 | 7.3 |
Clearly Latos has been the better pitcher. The walks as have always been a problem for Gio continue to be a problem and are responsible for at least half a run of opponent offense per nine which is significant for offensively challenged teams like San Diego and Oakland (though presumed trade partners Detroit, New York and Texas may be able to cover that deficiency more readily for him). The numbers above however are colored by Gonzalez' miserable 2008 campaign, and while that did happen so should be counted - he posted a 7.68 ERA, 7.04 FIP and ugly 6.6 BB/9 and -0.6 WAR numbers - it is a clear outlier and looking at Gio's numbers from 2009-2011 seem a better comparison of where the two pitchers stack up today though Gonzalez still has a 501 1/2 innings pitched to 429 2/3 innings pitched advantage which also is significant, being able to accumulate innings is a skill in and of itself isn't it Rich Harden?)
| K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WAR | |
| Latos | 8.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 3.37 | 3.28 | 3.51 | 7.3 |
| Gonzalez | 8.6 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 3.68 | 3.86 | 3.90 | 7.9 |
The numbers still favor Latos though less dramatically particuarly in the HR/9, FIP and xFIP areas (though the WAR difference too is notable). Basically what this means is that while Gio is very good, he is slightly less the pitcher Latos is. Furthermore, there is as people brought up the contractual differences. Gonzalez is arbitration eligible this offseason and pegged to earn about $4.2M in arbitration versus Latos' MLB minimum for one more year. That is a significant difference in $/WAR or any other value metric. Lesson is: Latos is worth more than Gio. But just how much more? I have to assume the difference is not as great as many may suppose it is. The Padres got 3 Top 10 prospects from a relatively well stocked system, plus a pitcher who has in the past shown flashes of being brilliant (remember Volquez is who Texas sent to Cincinnati to get Josh Hamilton). Is the A's asking for two top tier prospects a la a Jacob Turner and Nick Castellanos from the Tigers that unreasonable now? Or the desire to get a Dellin Betances/Manny Banuelos plus Jesus Montero from the Yankees? Doesn't seem quite so crazy right now. Two key pitchers to watch who are also rumored to be on the trade market should they go before Gio can provide a better understanding of his value. While Latos represents the ceiling for what we could get and I'd be surprised if we reached it and shocked if we surpassed it, John Danks and Matt Garza represent the floor. If either of those guys goes, we can get a pretty good sense of what Gio is worth, granted things can always change. Injuries may make a team more likely to overpay to make a key and now very necessary addition, we can only wait and see...
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Surplus value
Friar Forecast has a good article up where he estimates Latos with a surplus value of around $40M on the remainder of his team control. Might be interesting to get an estimate on the surplus value of Gio Gonzalez on the remainder of his team controlled years from the A’s subject matter experts for comparison sake.
Using 2010 and 2011 stats and only looking at the three stats of (K/9, BB/9, GB/FB) I have the five most comparable pitchers (skill wise) with Gio Gonzalez being…
Gio Gonzales (8.23, 4.09, 1.40)
1) J.De la Rosa (8.22, 3.84, 1.55)
2) Felipe Paulino (8.37, 3.97, 1.13)
3) U.Jimenez (8.65, 3.73, 1.13)
4) R.Dempster (8.60, 3.62, 1.27)
5) F.Liriano (8.62, 3.64, 1.66)
with the added caveat that NL pitchers get to face pitchers.
I think a mid- $30 million in surplus is fair for Gio
Based on MLBTR’s $4.2 million estimate of Gio’s 2012 salary you can project a total cost of $29.4 million over the next 4 years. This assumes that Gio’s performance stays relatively the same in comparison to his last two seasons. If he average 3.25 Wins a season he’ll produce 13 Wins. At $5 million a Win… $65 million in value.
Knock him down to averaging 2.75 Wins a season = 11 Wins and $55 million in value.
Any improvement pushes Gio into the $40 million surplus range; although the increase salary associated with his arbitration status could significantly slow the rise in surplus value.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I agree with that assessment.
I think Gonzalez however would likely be signing a deal to buy out arbitration years with whomever he is traded to. Does anyone else think that is unlikely?
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I like this idea!
The new owners would then put their money up for a new stadium in Oakland and then, in the middle of construction, give Gio a 6-7 year 80-90 million dollar contract. Perfect!
by asyouwish33 on Dec 18, 2011 11:32 AM PST up reply actions
Good Idea except it needs to still be San Jose
If you want this team to create revenue for a large payroll.
Sounds great, until he blows up and turns into Rich Hill in year 4 of that contract
I don’t want anything to do with a long-term deal for Gio Gonzalez. The ability to go year to year is a good thing, particularly when it comes to pitchers (and PARTICULARLY when it comes to enigmatic pitchers with suspect control).
Besides, 6-7 years for any pitcher is basically crazy, unless he’s never had so much as a toothache in his life.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I was being sarcastic.
New owners wouldn’t do a damn thing.
Ah
Well played, sir.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Age is key factor
in vis-a-vis comparisons with Latos; using AL/NL stats also misleading. A’s still should ask for huge package. If Gio is to be traded for maximum value, the time to trade is here.
Agree now is the time
But are you arguing age is better in Gio’s favor or Latos’? Don’t really have much of a choice for AL/NL. While Latos benefits there for sure and they could account for the difs in K/9 and HR/9 I thin the most stark diff is BB/9 which is all on Gio.
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
Important to note...
That pitchers are less likely to decline at 30 than hitters. A lot of pitchers don’t reach their stride (if they stay injury-free) in their early to mid thirties.
My prediction
Gio for Martin Perez, Mike Olt and others. I think it happens after it’s confirmed that Blue Jays had the highest bid on Darvish.
A's asked for perez, olt for bailet weeks ago
Why would they settle for the same deal for gio? no thanks
by J.J. Miller on Dec 18, 2011 10:37 AM PST up reply actions
I think you're crossed up
IIRC the Perez/Olt package was in regards to Gonzalez.
The monster at the end of this blog.
this was from winter meetings
The Rangers met with Oakland officials on Tuesday and first brought up the possibility of trading for reliever Andrew Bailey. The A’s, sources said, asked for LHP Martin Perez, 3B Mike Olt and SS Leury Garcia. The Rangers quickly moved on.
by J.J. Miller on Dec 18, 2011 11:31 AM PST up reply actions
That guy messed up the story
If Perez/Olt/Garcia for Bailey scared off the Rangers then there’s no way a conversation over Gio would have had “more legs”. Gio is worth more than Bailey. He’s under team control longer and he’s a SP. If the A’s really asked for those 3 in return for Bailey, then they’re request for Gio would have had to be even higher.
The only way that happens is if the A’s are asking for Profar instead of Garcia!
The monster at the end of this blog.
Profar is on the table IMO
Profar+Perez+Olt?
Absolutely insane request.
The monster at the end of this blog.
This is what I'm wondering:
Would Gio and Bailey for Profar, Olt, and “TEX’s choice of Perez, Scheppers, or Erlin” be in the ballpark of a fair deal? (As folks know, I profess to having no clue about trade equity.)
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Bailey and Gio together to me seems like muddying the waters
Seems you get better value separating out the deals. Its like when car dealers try to cloud how much they’ll give you on your trade and the price of the new car instead of two separate transactions
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I tend to agree
but if Bailey and Gio netted us Profar, Perez, Olt, Ramirez, plus a few other lessers (I like Alfaro, Matt West). I would do it.
Just like eBay...
You sell the computer whole and get a “bleh” deal, but strip it of parts and you make out like a bandit.
by Flamethrower on Dec 18, 2011 6:31 PM PST up reply actions
Oops, that's right.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Erlin pitches for SD's farm system
And asking Texas to choose between Perez and Scheppers is basically saying you want Scheppers.
Which you shouldn’t want.
The monster at the end of this blog.
gio to padres
for alonso, darnell or gyorko, erlin
fair?
by J.J. Miller on Dec 18, 2011 12:06 PM PST up reply actions
I'm confused.
I agree they ARE looking to move Rizzo. So why would they say yes to a trade that includes: “alonso, darnell or gyorko, erlin”
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Fair? Maybe. Needs a little more from SD.
Stupid for the A’s? Absolutely.
Darnell has some potential. Alonso is pointless with Barton/Allen/Carter/Kila around. Erlin is… nice.
The monster at the end of this blog.
A's wanted grandal, alonso, 3rd prospect from reds
I’d say its a comparable to that padres idea. Especially since A’s see 3b as more of a priority . Plus Erlin was considered a top 100 prospect at least during the summer
by J.J. Miller on Dec 18, 2011 12:29 PM PST up reply actions
OK
3B should not be a priority right now. Sizemore can hold down the job cheaply for a while, allowing the A’s to draft an upgrade.
Yonder Alonso is a good prospect, he has value as a good prospect. But he’s absolutely pointless to the A’s given their situation. Alonso only makes sense for Oakland if you’re going to flip him. Erlin maxes out as a #3 SP. Most systems have a Robbie Erlin the A’s could grab.
The A’s need to focus on the outfield and shortstop. If they’re going to acquire an arm they need to acquire a potential #1/2 SP.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Unless the A’s can grab a star 3B with their first pick, it is likely going to take at least 3 seasons to develop a drafted 3B. Which they should only do if he happens to be the most value at the #11, which is unlikely. Of the many 3B already drafted, Parker is the only one near major-league ready, and while I do like him, nobody is expecting him to knock Sizemore out of the position. I’m not ready to entrust Sizemore with the corner for the next 3 seasons.
So I gather I shouldn't be spooked by how bad Perez has been overall in the minors?
I assume scouts still just love him and say, “Ignore the numbers” — which is fine. The numbers do not scream out “You have to love this guy.”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Yeah, I'm with you
I have always wondered how there can be such a big disparity. Makes me worry…
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I mean sometimes guys just don't live up to their hype/stuff
He’s been hit hard, at times very hard, without good control, at every level — granted he’s young for those levels and maybe that’s all it is. But he’s establishing a pattern, so far, of simply not pitching very well.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Yeah
I’m usually never on board when someone says that he has the tools, he’ll eventually put it together. But in Perez’s case, he was EXTREMELY young, he was 19 in Double A. And when I hear lefty with plus-plus change you can’t help but think Johan or Hamels, so in his particular case, I take that upside despite the mediocre results thus far.
There's really no pattern of not pitching well
Perez’s only really lackluster year in minors was 2010, when he was 19 in AA and still k’ed more than a batter per inning. 2011 was very solid, 2009 was brilliant.
by John of Gaunt on Dec 18, 2011 12:45 PM PST up reply actions
Whoops - somehow I totally missed his time at Hickory
(I think all I saw for 2009 were his 5 starts at Frisco). That certainly helps his pedigree.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Perez has been pushed stupid fast by Texas
He doesn’t turn 21 until after next season starts.
The monster at the end of this blog.
It's sort of the same situation with Manny Banuelos.
Since hitting AA, their numbers haven’t been wonderful, but they’re both only 20 years old. Both have been rushed.
In comparison...
When Cahill and Anderson were 20 they each made 6 GS in AA near the end of the season.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Of course, when they were 21, they were inexplicably inserted into a big-league rotation...
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
by PaulThomas on Dec 18, 2011 7:25 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm willing to trust scouts for pitchers more than hitters
when they’re all unanimous in their effusive praise. Jarrod Parker comes to mind, actually.
Yes, I'm excited about Parker
because despite the numbers both scouts, and fans who have followed him, seem to believe he has “legit #1-#2 potential”.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Either that or you get Perez but he's borked with some crypto-injury
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I'm happy to omit Perez from that.
What about a trade built around Profar+Olt for Gio? Who needs to add to that?
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
oh nevermind
I just saw the discussion on this further down.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Agreed
I’m sure Billy would have been laughed at for such a proposal.
by asyouwish33 on Dec 18, 2011 11:47 AM PST up reply actions
If that's the As asking price for Bailey...
Then there’s no way they ever trade Bailey. That would be a foolish position to have.
by Brett Narloch on Dec 18, 2011 10:52 AM PST up reply actions
I think that was probably just the asking price at the deadline
They likely did not really want to move him midseason unless a desperate team caved and gave them everything.
But yes, an injury-prone RP is not gonna get you that kind of package.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 19, 2011 9:50 AM PST up reply actions
How about Gio and Bailey for Profar and Olt?
“Now” for “Then”!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Sign me up...
But I doubt it would happen.
by Brett Narloch on Dec 18, 2011 10:59 AM PST up reply actions
That's even better...
Maybe Texas will get desperate with the Angels spending and losing out on Darvish.
by Brett Narloch on Dec 18, 2011 11:05 AM PST up reply actions
Nah
Ain’t gonna happen.
I’ve just decided that Olt is not a logical target to acquire from Texas in a Gio deal.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Out of curiousity, why are you down on Olt?
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
His numbers in the Carolina League were OK
I’m a little worried about the swing and miss. Why did he miss half a season? I buy into Olt as a B grade prospect, don’t misunderstand.
Mainly, I don’t feel like 3B is a need for the A’s. I also think asking for Profar+Perez+Olt is a bit much for a Gio/Bailey combo. I think it would be easier to get a 2nd arm from Texas then to get Olt.
Any chance Texas prefers Olt to Leonys Martin? The A’s need OF help…
The monster at the end of this blog.
No...
Leonys is considered our CF of the future. Borbon hasn’t remotely seized his opportunities and Gentry is a fine 4th or 5th OF.
Olt’s question is his hit tool… he does have quite a bit of swing and miss in him… but he’s got a great eye at the plate too. He missed half a season with a broken collar bone.
Olt is blocked by Betlre for the next few years so it wouldn’t surprise me to see him traded (with the Rangers obviously wanting to get value for him). There’s been a lot of discussion among Rangers fans as to whether he should be moved off of 3B to a corner OF or 1B… but while his bat does well for 3B… it’s probably not strong enough for those positions. And a big part of his value is his glove at 3B.
He’s got good power and if he keeps developing will probably be a .270 type hitter with 25 HR potential and a good glove with moderate range and a good arm.
I think both Profar and Martin are non starters. Profar has that specialness around him as a 19 year old Sally MVP where he might be a top ten prospect in all of baseball and perhaps the best SS prospect as well. Another strong year next year in High A / AA could elevate him around top two or three prospects in baseball.
I think the Rangers will hold on to Profar until Elvis is resolved (three more years of team control and Boras as an agent) or unless it’s for a Kershaw / Felix deal where you can’t say no.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
I agree asking for Profar is a stretch
Strictly going off Victor Wang’s value chart I think a straight Gio for Profar discussion is possible.
I just don’t see Texas’ need for another SP as urgent enough to make that conversation happen.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Any interest in Rizzo for Olt?
I’d be willing to deal Rizzo for a potential 20-25 homers at 3rd. That would leave us in a position to trade Headley for more prospects. Gyorko could be traded or moved to left.
This is the other danger the A’s have to contend with. The Padres aren’t done trading, and they’re likely targeting the same players as the A’s. I figured this situation would happen. It’s why I’ve been advocating packaging Gio and Bailey for awhile now. Go for the big package and strike before the other guys. If the Padres nab more Texas players it dilutes the available package Gio and Bailey could net, making it unworkable.
"When you find your way. Then you see it disappear."
You know... another option might be
for the A’s to send one of Barton/Allen to Texas as part of a larger deal. Not sure which one would entice the Rangers more, so I’ll leave it open ended for now.
The monster at the end of this blog.
The Rangers gave Martin a $5M bonus less than a year ago, so I doubt they'd
be too keen to move him. That in addition to what this guy already said.
I haven't seen it? Just Jacobs and Brentz?
It’s plausible. Boston definitely has enough OF depth to make that move and still have viable backups. I may have cooled on Brentz some; he’s supposed to be a pretty poor defender, right?
But I’d probably do it, yeah. I like Jacobs quite a bit.
I'd do either
Olt has a “could be a GGer at 3B” reputation with very good plate discipline. Sounds to me like “a Sizemore who can really field.” Perez has tons of physical tools and has most certainly not put them together yet, but is an excellent prospect. I’d take either one, with Profar, to get a deal done.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Is stephen parker suddenly off the radar
I know his AA season wasnt great but they seemed fairly high on him.
I wouldnt mind a lesser deal for matt domonguez or james darnell, who are blocked.. Probably wouldnt have to give up much
by J.J. Miller on Dec 18, 2011 12:04 PM PST up reply actions
S. Parker is coming across to me like a "tweener"
At best, maybe he’s another Scott Sizemore but at worst he’s just another good prospect who didn’t put it together.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Sadly, he now looks like a Cal League mirage.
If he can put it together this year, he might still have a place, but 2011 was NOT a good year for him, prospect standing-wise.
He hit a lot better than Grant Green did.
Though, I guess 2011 wasn’t a good year for Grant Green either.
2011 wasn't a good year for just about any Oakland prospect not named Michael Choice
It wasn’t even that good of a year for him!
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Just curious - do you have any theory as to why this happened?
Do you lean towards “bad scouting” or “bad player development” or “bad luck” or something else?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I essentially don't believe in player development as a concept, so cross that one off the list
It’s some combination of bad scouting, bad risk-taking, bad medical practices and bad luck. As for which of those predominates, I can’t really say.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I definitely agree on "bad risk taking"
Nice to see the A’s gamble on Choice, Weeks more recently. For about a decade it seemed like they were in love with “high floor/low ceiling” draftees. I guess they figured they could supplement them with Rule 5 players whose upside was “LOOGY” or “5th OFer”.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
No, I'm saying it's the exact opposite
These supposedly “high ceiling” players they’ve been drafting recently suck. Stassi, Shipman, Brett Hunter— these guys are crap on a stick. Not to mention the parade of busts from the Latin arena.
By and large, the closer the A’s drafts have approximated what the scout-centric prospect hounds have wanted them to do, the more those drafts have been terrible at actually producing useful players.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Oh I see. I thought you were referring back to farther back.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I fear I didn't use the word "back" enough in that sentence.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Whoa! Care to explain?
I essentially don’t believe in player development as a concept,
You think players don’t do things to improve or that everybody’s about the same at getting players to improve?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 18, 2011 7:40 PM PST up reply actions
The latter
Players improve, or don’t, on their own all the time. I see no real evidence that teams can force it on them, though.
I’m less hardline about this for pitchers, who clearly can be taught new pitches, new mechanics, and other concrete things along those lines. But for hitters? I’m extremely skeptical.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Isn't this two years in a row now?
Where basically every prospect in the A’s system has gotten injured or worse? What the crap is going on?
by thelincolndude on Dec 19, 2011 9:21 AM PST up reply actions
"Yes," and, "if I knew I'd be giving Billy a call", respectively
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Vicmal de la Cruz did well, but he's so far away that it's not worth putting
any significant stock into him yet.
His plate discipline is still great
but the power looks suspect, yeah.
If his glove was better I’d still be pretty high on him, as you can do a lot for a team as a league-average hitting, good-glove 3B (see: Polanco, Placido). However, most reports I’ve read have it as mediocre.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
For this reason, wouldn't Olt be a decent grab?
Great 3B defense, very good plate discipline, question-marks as a hitter otherwise.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
As an archetype, yeah
However, it’s very rare that in-division trades actually make sense for both teams. Simply as a matter of basic microeconomics, it should normally be possible for one team or the other to get a better deal outside the division.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Call me old fashioned
but I just don’t like the idea of division rivals making significant trades like this. The A’s season is already toast next year, and probably for a couple of seasons after, so I’m not so against sending Gio to Texas. Plus I’d rather see Texas succeed than Anaheim, but that is really neither here nor there. Tthe reality is we would be trading a guy away so he can directly beat us several times a season. Even throwing that aside, if you are Texas, do you really want to send away players who could be responsible for helping your divisional opponent build their next good team?
"As a rule we disbelieve all the facts and theories for which we have no use."
-Gustave Flaubert
by thinwhiteduke on Dec 19, 2011 4:20 PM PST up reply actions
I sort of think of it the opposite way
Since the season is going to blow anyway, might as well get guys (and subtract them from a division rival) who would have helped them, and now will help us.
"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer
by cuppingmaster on Dec 20, 2011 7:03 AM PST up reply actions
Latos
How does his supposed attitude issues and shoulder factor into his value?
Plus pitching in the NL, weaker league
Attitude, I would think no; shoulder, I would think yes.
For a pitcher, health in the shoulder or elbow area has to be a factor.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
He appears to have put those shoulder problems in the past...
Cincy had a picture perfect trade…
by Brett Narloch on Dec 18, 2011 10:58 AM PST up reply actions
Latos was pitching at the end of September
Pitchers are time bombs regardless. I don’t think the shoulder is significant enough to drive down the price for the talent.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Unless you believe that "the best predictor of future health problems...is past health problems."
But on the flip side, the truly best predictor of future health problems is, “Pitches a baseball.”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
He's been largely healthy
Does his past history highlight the risk more? Sure. But given his age it goes from a 1 in 10 chance of a blow out to a 13 in 100 chance.
All numbers in this post being made up, of course.
Makes you hold the rabbit foot a little tighter, it doesn’t justify significantly lowering the value of the package Cincy sent to SD.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I think the Padres got an excellent return, personally
I too am not a huge fan of Alonso, but he is a good prospect and a very tradeable chip if you want to flip him.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
BTW, speaking of trades (but not Gio),
it irritates me that OAK and SD just aren’t good trade partners as SD now has two guys I’d love to grab: Grandal, whom the Padres could most certainly flip, and Jaff Decker. But even if the Padres said, “Yeah we’d like to flip Grandal,” there’s just no match between the two organizations that I can see.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
And pawned off Hairston after Hairston on them while they weren't looking.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'd say they are good trade partners
If they have interest in garza, why not gio?
A’s are also looking for a 3b, so darnell or gyorko could fit.
Maybe im overrating him a bit but Ryan Ortiz is he a much worse catching prospect than Grandal?
by J.J. Miller on Dec 18, 2011 11:36 AM PST up reply actions
They're not good partners unless the Padres are in "win now" mode
In which case they wouldn’t be dealing a frontline SP for prospects. If they were willing to deal prospects for Gio, why not just hang onto Latos and forego receiving prospects for him?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Then their interest in garza is more confusing
by J.J. Miller on Dec 18, 2011 11:45 AM PST up reply actions
I would doubt their interest in Garza.
Doesn’t make any sense to me.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Why trade Latos if you want to package prospects for Garza?
Trade Latos for Garza + if thats the case. Can’t believe that rumor. Rizzo could go to Chicago but it’d be for Cubs prospects.
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Ortiz.
To answer your question: Yes, Yasmani Grandal is a significantly better catching prospect than Ryan Ortiz.
Grandal was a first-rounder chosen 12th overall whom many thought should have gone a little earlier, who has more or less continued to live up to expectations. Ryan Ortiz was a sixth-rounder who has turned out better than expected but still isn’t all that.
General baseball fans who follow prospects know who Grandal is. If you’re not already a fan of the A’s, you probably haven’t even heard of Ortiz.
I don’t mean to denigrate Ortiz (I think it’s fine to have high hopes for him) nor do I mean to imply that Yasmani Grandal is super awesome (personally, I like him and wanted him, but there are other better catcher prospects out there). I’m just saying that Ryan Ortiz is probably somewhere in the #11-20 range in a weak farm system, while Grandal was a top 10 in a strong farm system. Not the same caliber.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
"whom many thought..."
Why “whom”? I’m always guided by use “whom” when you would use “him”, use “who” when you would use “he”.
And I would definitely not say “many thought him should have gone…”
Care to explain?
My explanation is I screwed up.
I should have used “who” there.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Don't worry we all flagged you
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by dwishinsky on Dec 19, 2011 9:47 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
I think it's "youm"
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 19, 2011 9:52 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm flagging you too
“You think”? you know grammar or you don’t
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{flagged for poor capitalization}
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Flagged
For using those weird brackets instead of traditional American brackets
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Flagged for implicitly bringing politics onto AN
through suggested patriotism.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Flagged for saying politics and thereby making patriotism political when really it is an issue of morality
Something we have too little of at AN!
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Flagged for leaving the 't' out in 'mortality'
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Rec'd
(and flagged).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Flagged for refusal to make it green
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Even Cindi and me together can't make it green.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'd be higher on Ortiz if he didn't have the same issues that every other A's prospect has, viz., injuries
He has the same basic problem as Stassi (shoulder injuries + catchers = not a good combo), though at least he can actually hit a baseball.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Brewers win Aoki bid with $2.5M?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I guess the deal was A-ok?
"You know, a long time ago being crazy meant something. Nowadays everybody's crazy."
-Charles Manson
by kaweahkaweah on Dec 18, 2011 12:05 PM PST up reply actions
hmm, kinda thought we should have tried for him
no power, but a good contact hitter. Would have adjusted well in Oakland’s spacious confines.
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
So, since I actually hated that package that San Diego received for Latos, I want somebody's opinion.
How does the Grandal/Alonso/Volquez/Boxberger package compare to the deal Oakland supposedly asked for from Detroit (the Turner/Castellanos/Smyly package)?
It's hard to compare because Cincy's package
Was headlined by two position players and the hypothetical Tigers package is really about pitching. If you like ceilings, I guess Turner has the best chance to be a superstar, but the Latos package has a pretty high floor.
by John of Gaunt on Dec 18, 2011 12:55 PM PST up reply actions
Strictly by letter grade...
I’d guess Boxberger is a C+/B-
Alonso and Grandal were B+ last year and I doubt that dropped for this year.
Turner = A-
Castellanos= B+
Smyly= B
If you call Boxberger a B- then you could argue that the Cincy package and the A’s request are roughly equal. If Boxberger is a C+ then the A’s are asking for more.
I’m not overly enamored with Castellanos; I could live without him if Detroit had another solid position player prospect. But I’m not sure if they do.
The monster at the end of this blog.
The Padres got Volquez as well, though
Editor of JaguarsBlog
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by CaliforniaJag on Dec 18, 2011 1:55 PM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
Volquez is a wild card
Including him saves Cincy a couple million, money they need elsewhere. So how much was he a salary dump vs. being pursued by SD as a worthwhile trade chip?
The monster at the end of this blog.
I don't see why the Reds needed to save $2M so badly. They need all the pitching
they can get. They’re using Bronson Arroyo for gosh’s sake
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 18, 2011 3:41 PM PST up reply actions
this
plus if he was salary dump cinci couldve just non tendered him. he’s a better fourth piece than a low minors flier, imo, with the potential to be flipped for a few nice prospects, and two cheap years in which to figure it out.
Nice summary.
I’d think Gio would be traded before Danks and Garza. He seems more desirable.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
Wow! They really are!
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 18, 2011 7:42 PM PST up reply actions
Maybe that's why Brett Wallace was traded away?
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30174/brett-wallace
"He's listed as day to day, but then again, aren't we all?" — Vin Scully
x-mas sale
All A’s players with any tools must GO! 50% off what they are worth. Hurry as the supply is (very) limited.
50 % of what they're worth?
Appreciate the humor of your remark, but from what other teams are saying, Gio and Bailey seem to be selling for face value, if not more. A’s are looking for some fleece this winter.
"Now what will it take to put you in a Gio today?"
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Deep in December
it’s nice to remember,
although you know the snow will follow.
Deep in December
it’s nice to remember
without a hurt the heart is hollow.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Billy Beane as El Gallo:
There is a curious paradox
That no one can explain.
Who understands the secret
Of the reaping of the grain?
Who understands why playoffs are born
Out of rebuilding’s laboring pain?
Or why the team must die a bit
Before it grows again?
I do not know the answer.
I merely know it’s true.
I traded Cahill for that reason
And probably Gio, too.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Could we somehow get Jacob Turner AND Jesus Montero?
Guess that’s more for fantasy leagues
Montero is kinda "eh" to me...
He seems like he’ll be a good hitter, but also play terrible defense – if he can even play anywhere. Sure, he’ll probably be a better hitter than Carter, Allen, Kia, and Barton… but if we’re going to trade Gio, I’d look to get back someone who fits in better with the A’s.
by Brett Narloch on Dec 19, 2011 6:49 AM PST up reply actions
Neither team needs a closer, so Bailey probably wouldn't be able to do it.
They’d have to flip prospects—the Yankees would have to decide they’d rather have Smyly and Castellanos than Montero, which seems unlikely, or the Tigers that they preferred Manny Banuelos over Turner, which seems even more unlikely. Teams don’t swap top prospects like that too often.
I've got the plan!
A’s ship Gio to NY for Manny and Montero because the Yankees will start to worry about their place in the AL East. Jays still need a bat, so Oakland flips Montero to Toronto for Marisnick and… well, lots of options to choose from.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Would the Jays openly help the Yankees get Gio?
I guess you could keep it quiet, and then just hope that the Jays bite on Montero.
by Brett Narloch on Dec 19, 2011 8:28 AM PST up reply actions
Jays aren't helping Gio to the Yankees
Manny and Montero is a good haul in its own right. The question is, would the Jays like to add Montero to their line-up? I think they’d be interested.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Right... the A's woud just have to be ok with keeping Manny and Montero...
If something can’t be worked out with Toronto.
by Brett Narloch on Dec 19, 2011 8:39 AM PST up reply actions
I want Marisnick
I also want Toronto to dethrone Boston/New York. They could have a nasty rotation if they added Gio + Darvish
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Would you take Gose and Carlos Perez from Toronto for Gio?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Probably not.
I really like Marisnick. He’d be a necessity for me in any deal with Toronto. Of course that said, I’m sure they could come up with a Marisnick free offer that’d be good, but yours is not one I’d bite on
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Marisnick and Perez then?
Seems like Perez could be a jewel.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
They have a lot more to offer for Gio than Carlos Perez.
More likely the A’s would be asking for Marisnick or Gose, one of their B+ arms, and two or three mid-level prospects.
Not sure Gose is a better bet than Perez overall
Perez is noted (by Sickels) as “one of the best catching prospects in the lower minors,” while Gose has lots of potential - including bust potential. FWIW, in the 2011 book Sickels has Gose as a B, Perez as a B.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
That was last year.
But then he went and posted a 94 wRC+ with mediocre defense in single A, while Gose posted a 124 wRC+ with stellar defense in AA. And Gose is actually a month younger than Perez.
Gose stayed at B, Perez got knocked down to a C+.
Ah. My info is indeed a year old.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
If you need information regarding prospects,
just google the team with “top prospects 2012” after it. BP, BA, and Sickels have all posted lists for over half the teams within the past month or so. Check FanGraphs, too.
BP might get to Oakland this week
BA not ’til January. Sickels will probably be in January as well.
The monster at the end of this blog.
True, but this year's list is more likely to inspire dread than any other emotion
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I know. I'm being uber-lazy
I’m on Winter Break and my brain has been turned to the “off” position.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Throw in a reliever or low level pitching prospect
And I think I’d be down
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a lot of cash, but they keep their talent pool healthy
I’m pretty jealous. the Jays, but not getting Gio, will preserve a healthy farm system that will feed them for the next 5-7 years. I think they’re entering their playoff contender phase, and they should cap it off by signing Fielder.
That will push the Red Sox and Yankees to spend more or sacrifice what little remains of their farm systems in costly trades to win for another year.
having 3 teams competitive in the East really rocks their boat. Not to mention the Angels and Rangers as perennial contenders for that WC slot leaves fewer seats at the table (yes, i know there is the 1-game WC slots, but those don’t bring 3-7 games of playoff dollars).
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
You don't consider the Rays contenders?
If you do, could be 4 legit contenders in the East.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
good question
their rotation is there, but I wonder if they have the bats to keep up with the rest of the division.
I’d put them in the dark-horse category as one notch below the Yankees/Sox/Jays.
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
I'm still not ready to put the Jays in the top tier of that division yet.
Yes, there’s a decent shot they’ll compete. But it’s not a certainty.
by Brett Narloch on Dec 19, 2011 9:08 AM PST up reply actions
if you see my note - top tier status is reliant on signing Fielder
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
I dont think getting
Darvish takes them out of the Gio race. In essence they just paid a high price for an elite prospect. And they won’t be able to get Fielder because that would be like 350 million spent on two guys, so trading for Gio and tapping their prospect well which they just bolstered by adding Darvish could be something they do. Romero, Morrow, Gio, Darvish would be pretty sick.
By the way, I know Darvish will start in the majors, but like Dice K he will be listed on the BA list, and so as a technicality he is a “prospect”.
I suppose he's a favorite for Rookie of the Year, too....
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
According to Sickles... the Rangers have 16 players ranked "B-" or better...
Will the A’s have 5?
But the more I look at their system, the more I'd rather the A's look somewhere else.
If Detroit agrees to Turner, Castellanos, and Smyly… i think i prefer that one to anything the Rangers offer that doesn’t include Profar.
by Brett Narloch on Dec 19, 2011 7:37 AM PST up reply actions
+1
Turner, Castellanos, and Smyly is what I want. It’s a good haul. Hopefully the Tigers will come around.
We get a possible everyday 3B out of the deal... and a future 1 or 2 pitcher...
A rotation of Anderson, Parker, and Turner would look pretty good in a couple of years.
If Castellanos works out he’d be the everyday 3B.
Perhaps Bailey can net an OF prospect.
by Brett Narloch on Dec 19, 2011 8:48 AM PST up reply actions
Yes... forgot about him.
Of course that leaves the team heavy on pitching and light on hitting, which is par for the course. But, with Castellanos, Choice, and Weeks being at the top of the lineup and if Carter and/or Allen come along, you’ve got the makings of a decent if not above-average offense… especially if Green can also handle CF. There are a lot of “ifs” in there… but such is the case with all prospects.
by Brett Narloch on Dec 19, 2011 9:06 AM PST up reply actions
There's also a chance we draft a stud in the 2012-13 drafts,
a scenario made more likely by the fact that we appear poised to suck ferret spleen this season.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
When was the last time we drafted this high?
2010? With Choice?
by Maverick10126 on Dec 19, 2011 12:12 PM PST up reply actions
Answered my own question...
Looks like we took Choice with the 10th overall pick. This year we have the 11th overall. So hopefully we’ll be able to get someone comparable.
by Maverick10126 on Dec 19, 2011 12:48 PM PST up reply actions
I'm not sure why anyone would look at Green at this point and see anything approaching a future starter
I mean, even assuming his glove plays in center (unknown, but I’m not holding my breath)… he just doesn’t look like a good hitter.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Not sure I'd even go above 3 at this point
Maybe 4 if I had a big glass of Chris Carter Kool-Aid (OH YEAH!).
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
by PaulThomas on Dec 19, 2011 8:00 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah...
I think the A’s have the 11th pick in 2012… and most likely a higher (better) one next year.
And another big wild card might be a new stadium… which could attract big free agents.
RE: Prince Fielder
how many teams have fallen out of that race? It seems like the original contenders for Fielder are skipping town:
Miami Marlins
Chicago Cubs (possibly misinformation)
St. Louis Cards
Washington Nats
Tex Rangers
Slegna
Rockies (were they in?)
Remaining Active:
Seattle Mariners
Toronto Blue Jays
Seems like a very small market remains for big spending clubs.
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
I think Washington is disingenuous with their disinterest
Though I could be wrong…
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Michael Morse
31 HR/.360 OBP/ .550 SLG
Whether you believe he can mantain (where did that power come from?) is the internal question the nationals are not bothering to ask themselves.
I did see Washington as a likely landing place for Fielder or Pujols, but they’ve publicly pulled back. Owners probably put off by the 10 yr / $250 million price tag
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
I dont think that 10/250 tag applies anymore given the long list of suitors
Also Washington’s outfield is pretty empty, you can move him in there. Move him around with days off/etc. Morse has played all over.
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true, but he's been a terrible defender = why he is at 1B
also agree about the 10/250 mark, which is why i commented in the first place. I wonder what it would take to get Fielder at this point (quietly crosses fingers A’s make a super-secret bid).
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
But if he is a legit bat throw him in LF big deal you know?
I dunno. I wonder if Fielder even goes the route of betting the farm and signing a one-year deal… it’ll be interesting to see.
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i can't see Fielder pulling a Beltre
His value is already very high, he has been consistent and is entering his prime. The pressure is on Boras to come up with a team, or at least get Fielder a package, maybe 8 yr / $185.
I agree about Morse – toss him wherever, but the GM comments have been that “they already have a 1B” and are only concerned with adding a front of the rotation starter.
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
I don't either but you have to think if theres a situation where the Yankees could get in
Or maybe a Mets or Dodgers with new ownership? His price skyrockets. It is an OUT THERE idea, but you have to wonder if that might be better long term (though HUGE risk) than signing a 6 year
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only the dodgers
make sense w/ new ownership. Mets & Yanks have 1B on lockdown, and the Yanks have enough DH support that their focus will be on pitching.
I think he has to get 8 years from someone.
I think this weak market is what prompted the Mariners to join the fray. They saw a well dry up on Fielder and they’re sitting there holding a sippy cup full of tap water.
Honestly, does it make sense for the A’s to offer Prince 8 years/$200 ? Provided we get the SJ green light, i think it makes sense.
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
The Yankees could deal Teixiera
They’ve dealt big names before to get other big names (Soriano), Javier Vazquez, etc. Wouldn’t be the first time, can’t imagine it’d be the last.
The Mets I think are far from locked down at first.
I still think Fielder will sign a decent deal, I just wonder, really terrible time for him to hit the market. Perfect storm of crap.
If you lock him up for 8 years yeah, why not? But I think we’d be better off addressing other parts of the team with such a big contract. Beltre to me made sense as third has been a black hole for so long. But right now, I’d invest in a top quality outfielder before 1B if we had tons of $ to spend on a long-term deal (of course no one stands out).
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The Mets have Ike Davis coming back, who was really damn good
last year. Plus, they still have Lucas Duda and Daniel Murphy, who are capable, if not good. I don’t know why any team would sacrifice prospects to get Teixeira at $22.5M per year for five years when they could just sign Fielder at similar cost and keep the prospects.
mets have cheap options
so they’ll spend where the biggest holes are.
For the A’s we have a bunch of potentially-serviceable 1st/LF/DHs, and signing Fielder to the spot would finally lock down that position. Our entire team is full of holes, and hopefully dealing Gio brings back some MLB-ready talent that fits.
plenty of good FA OFs for 2013, but Fielder is one of the best sluggers to anchor a rising team around.
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
If I'm Fielder, I might just sign a 3/$60-70M deal ow
And then hit the market again and ask for a 8-10 year deal then.
"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer
by cuppingmaster on Dec 20, 2011 7:11 AM PST up reply actions
So let us talk deal
Say the Nat’s sign Fielder, and trade Morse, Peacock and Norris (or what ever group after Morse) to the A’s for Gio. Then the A’s send Morse to the Rangers for Ott (or whatever player or players)
Chicago Cubs
So, I was doing a pretty elementary search by looking up the teams that gave up the most runs last year: Baltimore (860), Twins (804), Astros (796), Colorado (774), Royals (762), Blue Jays (761), Cleveland (760), Cubs (756)…………
Now, one doesn’t need to look at this list to know that these are the top teams that need pitching help, among others. But I was thinking, what team haven’t we mentioned that may try to compete next year? What team could really use the arm of Gio to compete right away with a few other upgrades…and what team has the assets to make that happen?
And it seems like the Cubs could be active for a SP. I was looking at their farm (and I know their farm system dominated US once before) and I actually liked what I saw.
I was wondering if the following is feasible:
Gio Gonzalez to the Cubs for
OF, Brett Jackson (Cubs #1 Prospect, Top 70 Overall) Wellington Castillo ©, and Josh Vitters, 3B.
My mannerism a prism/ And it should shine
Light it if you would/ Be so kind, right now'd
Be A' Good Time
by DaRubiesSLOKingsA's on Dec 19, 2011 9:33 AM PST reply actions
Can we get a player who's copyrighted?
I don’t want to sued over a trade.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Beane's high watermark
kinda makes me think this would not be enough to move him. While it would be an OF & 3B, their bats have not been lighting it up. I think after Taylor & Carter, Beane needs a guaranteed hitter.
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
Castillo and Vitters both don't interest me at all
Castillo is compared to Miguel Olivo if he even makes it, and while he has poor plate discipline it’s stellar compared to Vitters’.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
yeah Wellington Castillo is gonna be tough to get after he obtained that copyright!
haha I don’t know how that happened
My mannerism a prism/ And it should shine
Light it if you would/ Be so kind, right now'd
Be A' Good Time
by DaRubiesSLOKingsA's on Dec 19, 2011 10:46 AM PST up reply actions
Cubs are probably sellers, not buyers.
And that deal is unexciting. Castillo’s okay, but Oakland already has an okay catcher. Vitters sucks.
damn everyone seems to hate Vitters
I remember hearing great things about him like 2 years back
My mannerism a prism/ And it should shine
Light it if you would/ Be so kind, right now'd
Be A' Good Time
by DaRubiesSLOKingsA's on Dec 19, 2011 1:17 PM PST up reply actions
He has a really plate approach, which kills his value.
He’s had one really good year sandwiched between some awful ones and some mediocre ones.
Really what?
"Life is tough .... It's even tougher if you're stupid." - John Wayne
Nate chose to follow the adage about what to do when you have nothing nice to say
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Has anyone considered Alvarez from pitt?
He hasnt really done much early in his career, pitt has shown interest in gio before. After trading for megehee where does alavrez fit in?
alvarez + cf sterling marte would be a nice return
if Turner, Castellanos, Smyly
is true, then we probably would want more. Plus Alvarez has done bubkus so far and is a below average defensive 3b. That said, I do like the idea of buying really low on him, but we’d need more, taillon is probably off limits.
Buying low on Alvarez is fine, but I wouldn't involve Gio in that.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
It depends. Is Netflix going to raise their fees again?
by Brett Narloch on Dec 19, 2011 10:54 AM PST up reply actions
Could be a good buy low situation if they are....
by Maverick10126 on Dec 19, 2011 10:56 AM PST up reply actions
Will Game of Thrones come with it?
If not, that’s a deal-breaker.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Why would the Pirates start giving up prospects?
That might make sense three or four years from now when Taillon, Cole, Heredia, etc. start winning games in Pittsburgh. But right now? They’re still the Pirates.
If the Mariners get Fielder
Then maybe: Smoak, Franklin and Pimentel. Pimentel is super young and needs work but this would be a good haul, though I expect a young pitcher to come back in whatever trade involves Gio.
Baja been here
Any deal with Seattle will probably require Paxton or Walker and a couple mid-level guys.
Plus, that’s a poor return for Gonzalez. Smoak’s not very good, so he basically just slots in with Carter, Ka’Aihue, and Allen. Franklin’s nice. Pimentel’s chance of success is way too low.
BA has their Toronoto rankings out...
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/12/19/2646640/ba-top-10-prospect-blue-jays
1. Travis d’Arnaud, c
2. Anthony Gose, of
3. Jake Marisnick, of
4. Daniel Norris, lhp
5. Justin Nicolino, lhp
6. Aaron Sanchez, rhp
7. Noah Syndergaard, rhp
8. Deck McGuire, rhp
9. Drew Hutchison, rhp
10. Asher Wojciechowski, rhp
Yeah... that's right... i said Toronoto.
by Brett Narloch on Dec 19, 2011 1:24 PM PST up reply actions
The city in Onotorio.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Oh get oot.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Thoughts on this one?
A’s Get: Arencibia, Marisnick, Nicolino, Syndergaard
Jays Get: Gio
A’s Get: Middlebrooks, Brentz
Sox Get: Suzuki, Bailey
I don't know if the Sox would trade for a catcher
They have Salty, Shoppach, and Lavarnway. Seems like they’re pretty set at that position.
by thelincolndude on Dec 19, 2011 1:36 PM PST up reply actions
This sets up a future lineup like this:
C- Arencibia
1B- Barton/Allen/Carter
2B- Weeks
3B- Middlebrooks
SS- ?
LF- Choice
CF- Marisnick
RF- Brentz
DH- Allen/Carter
SP- Anderson
SP- Parker
SP- Nicolino
SP- Gray
SP- Syndergaard
by Brett Narloch on Dec 19, 2011 1:38 PM PST up reply actions
I might be selling low on Gio
But I think we settle for either Syndergaard or Nicolino. Not both. Marisnick definitely has to be in the deal though. Not really a fan of Arencibia. I think the return of Gio should be a bit higher than Cahill though. So…
A’s get:
Syndergaard/Nicolino
Marisnick
2 toolsy high school OF types. Big power potential.
Maybe Jacob Anderson and Dwight Smith Jr.
by Maverick10126 on Dec 19, 2011 2:12 PM PST up reply actions
Why do the Red Sox want a Catcher?
They have Saltalamacchia and just signed Shoppach to back-up.
Not interested in Arencbia. And Toronto has so many arms to choose from I don’t have a favorite.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Suzuki had a slightly worse year than Salty last year...
And has a much better track record.
I’m only interested in Arencibia in so much as he could end up being decent. He’d probably lead the team in HRs next year. But I certainly don’t consider him to be a major piece to the puzzle. I just thought the A’s would want a replacement for Suzuki.
by Brett Narloch on Dec 19, 2011 1:48 PM PST up reply actions
And what does Boston do with Saltalamacchia?
Bailey to Boston has traction.
Adding Suzuki to the mix stalls you.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I'd like to unload Suzuki as well...
I just don’t think Boston makes sense. I like the rest of the trade though. Does anyone think we throw in Balfour in a deal or is he valuable enough on his own?
by Maverick10126 on Dec 19, 2011 1:55 PM PST up reply actions
Best chance to unload Suzuki was to the Angels
Chance missed.
The Astros don’t make sense. The Mets are iffy. The Rays just signed a Molina clone…
The monster at the end of this blog.
What about the Dodgers?
They always seem to do stupid stuff and acquire more players than they need?
by Maverick10126 on Dec 19, 2011 2:16 PM PST up reply actions
I suggested them mostly as a joke...
Mostly…
But they always seem to make weird moves that leave me scratching my head wondering where they are going to play all their players.
by Maverick10126 on Dec 19, 2011 2:23 PM PST up reply actions
Perhaps Oakland could take Salt. back...
And forget Arencibia and get a different prospect instead.
by Brett Narloch on Dec 19, 2011 2:10 PM PST up reply actions
No.
You’re tripping yourself up to find a reason for the Red Sox to want a player they don’t want or need.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Maybe just Bailey for Middlebrooks straight up
by Maverick10126 on Dec 19, 2011 2:27 PM PST up reply actions
If we're talking 3B prospects, Olt's probably a better prospect than Middlebrooks.
The Rangers declined because the A’s asked for Olt and Perez, which is ridiculous. Olt and a throw-in is more reasonable, but like I’ve said before, I doubt Beane’s going to be reasonable dealing with Texas.
I think our best trading partners are
Toronto or Detroit for Gio
Boston for Bailey
Texas has some great players but I don’t know if I like the match considering that it’s Texas. The fact that we play them so much always factors in.
by Maverick10126 on Dec 19, 2011 2:35 PM PST up reply actions
I still like Detroit the best...
headlined by Turner.
by Brett Narloch on Dec 19, 2011 2:37 PM PST up reply actions
I like the detroit package as well
So we’d be getting a top pitcher, 3b, and back of the rotation guy. We’d still want to try to go out and get another OF. Can Bailey by himself get a good OF. Maybe Jacobs from Boston?
by Maverick10126 on Dec 19, 2011 2:41 PM PST up reply actions
If Toronto gets Darvish...
…they aren’t likely to be looking any longer at Gio. I think the Marlins and Royals are now who we should be focusing on. Miami seems to be going all in this year, and as has been mentioned many times, Gio would be a local boy for them. KC still has a very deep system, Moore likes power arms, and I think he believes that they can compete next year if they are able to add a couple of solid SP.
Marlin trade: Yelich/Fernandez/Realmuto/one of their B- lefty SP
Royal trade: Cuthbert/Odorizzi/Colon/maybe a bullpen arm (They have made it clear they will not trade Myers)
"As a rule we disbelieve all the facts and theories for which we have no use."
-Gustave Flaubert
by thinwhiteduke on Dec 19, 2011 3:00 PM PST up reply actions
Bah, never mind on Fernadez
I don’t think he can be traded yet. Marlins may not have enough interesting pieces to be a match. Not high enough on Matt Dominguez, he looks a lot like Hannahan 2.0.
"As a rule we disbelieve all the facts and theories for which we have no use."
-Gustave Flaubert
by thinwhiteduke on Dec 19, 2011 3:06 PM PST up reply actions
Gio to Miami never really got going anywhere.
They just don’t seem to have the type of parts we’d be looking for. And the players we want they won’t give up.
by Maverick10126 on Dec 19, 2011 3:07 PM PST up reply actions
They probably could offer a fair deal if they sacrificed depth.
But right now, whoever loses Darvish between Toronto and Texas will probably go hard after Gonzalez. Hopefully hard enough to overpay.
if a 3B is not a significant upgrade over Sizemore it's obviously not worth going after.
Sizemore was pretty decent last year, has great minor league stats, and was learning the position at the major league level…I think he is a better option than most.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 19, 2011 3:10 PM PST up reply actions
If 3B isn't going to be a priority
then a Tigers deal takes a huge hit. Turner is obviously a great centerpiece but if we aren’t targeting a 3B then the deal doesn’t look nearly as appealing without Castellanos. They don’t have the OF that Toronto has.
by Maverick10126 on Dec 19, 2011 3:18 PM PST up reply actions
I like that idea
But I don’t seem them moving Weeks. They seem to be banking on Green sticking in CF.
by Maverick10126 on Dec 19, 2011 3:21 PM PST up reply actions
I don't see having too many good players for 2B/3B/CF
as being the team’s biggest concern right now
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
True, we never seem to have a problem of having too many players
by Maverick10126 on Dec 19, 2011 3:30 PM PST up reply actions
good correction
We have way too many 1B/DH types that all suck.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 19, 2011 3:56 PM PST up reply actions
Banking on anyone is stupid
Listed above are 4 players, from whom we should be so lucky as to get 3 good ones.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Or even one
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 19, 2011 10:22 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, I'm ok with giving Sizemore a full season of AB's
He showed enough last year to warrant that, plus this is a lost season anyway. I don’t think Sizemore projects to be anything more than league avg, however. I think at 3B we should focus on a guy with some significant upside who is a couple of years away. Cheslor Cuthbert, for example, would hopefully be an upgrade when we are ready to compete again.
"As a rule we disbelieve all the facts and theories for which we have no use."
-Gustave Flaubert
by thinwhiteduke on Dec 19, 2011 3:18 PM PST up reply actions
seems like Toronto gives up a lot there.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 19, 2011 2:12 PM PST up reply actions
Anthopoulos probably laughs Beane off the phone...
I don’t think he was even asking for that much in preliminary trade discussions. I remember a rumor saying that Oakland wanted two of Toronto’s top five prospects, and a couple mid-level guys—which isn’t that unreasonable. But all four of those guys have been in somebody’s top Toronto prospects.
If a deal were hashed out with Toronto, I think it would look something an outfielder, a good pitching prospect, and two or three B-/C+ guys. So Gose/Marisnick, Nicolino/Syndergaard/McGuire/Hutchinson, and then haggle over the other couple players. That’s comparable to the Latos trade in terms of talent, but with a prospect instead of Edinson Volquez.
So how about a package of
Marisnick
Syndergaard
Anderson
Smith
3,4,14,15 according to Sickels.
by Maverick10126 on Dec 19, 2011 2:32 PM PST up reply actions
I'm pretty sure Anderson and Smith can't be traded, since they were drafted in 2011.
I like Jimenez, Sanchez, Crouse, and Knecht. Any two of those plus the B+ OF and SP would get a quick approval from me.
Depending on how long these trade talks drag out...
Couldn’t they be traded? Either way, it doesn’t matter. I was just throwing their names out. I think all the guys you mentioned fit the bill too. Toolsy power hitting OF high schoolers should be the target as the throw in.
by Maverick10126 on Dec 19, 2011 2:55 PM PST up reply actions
They'd have to drag out until January and then they'd still have to be PTBNL.
They couldn’t come to Oakland until the middle of the season. I like Crouse a lot. His numbers last year were nearly identical to Boston’s Brandon Jacobs. If Oakland could get him as the fourth piece of a deal, I’d be ecstatic.
I'm sure I posted this before, but my first thought about this is
Gio to J.P.: Hey, I heard I’m going to be traded to Toronto. That’s awesome! We’ll be playing on the same team again!
J.P. to Gio: Hey, I heard I’m going to be traded to Oakland. That’s awesome! We’ll be playing on the same team again!
[pause]
Both: D’oh!
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Washington going hard after Gio, says MLBTR/Ken Rosenthal
What does Washington have to offer? I think we can assume that Harper and Strasberg are off the table, so skip those pipe dreams.
Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.
A's asked marlins foe stanton, it doesnt hurt to ask
Not sure what nats have among top prospects after harper.
Here's how that works*
Marlins GM**: Hi, Billy. We’re interested in Gio. What are you looking for in return?
Beane: Is Stanton available?
Marlins GM: No.
Beane: Morrison?
Marlins GM: No.
Beane: Hmm, doesn’t sound promising.
While the Marlins have spoken to the A’s about a possible trade for lefty Gio Gonzalez, Oakland’s demands for the Hialeah product — specifically, some sort of package containing either Logan Morrison or Mike Stanton — have been flatly rejected.
The A’s have demanded a package containing Logan Morrison or Mike Stanton for Gonzalez
Other reporters who read the Miami Herald and MLBTR:
sources said that the A’s asked for budding star Mike Stanton
MLB Trade Rumors again:
The Athletics did indeed ask the Marlins for Mike Stanton
Everybody on the Internet:
As everyone knows, Beane asked for Stanton.
(No criticism of you, J.J. — just an observation about how quickly an insignificant comment can turn into a fundamental data point in the echo chamber of the Internet.)
(*The first quote my fictional speculation of something that could reasonably have prompted the report that follows. The last quote is a net paraphrase of dozens of comments on numerous sites. The rest are direct quotes, with Knobler’s just being ust one representative sample)
(**I did look up the name of the Marlins GM (Michael Hill), but there was no point in using it, since no one else remembers who he is either.)
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
For the record
I don’t see any good reason why Morrison would not be available. I also see no compelling reason for the A’s to go after him. And I think all can agree, Stanton isn’t going anywhere.
"As a rule we disbelieve all the facts and theories for which we have no use."
-Gustave Flaubert
by thinwhiteduke on Dec 19, 2011 6:24 PM PST up reply actions
Wondering the same thing...
They got some pitchers, but otherwise a kinda weak system other than of course possessing the best prospect in baseball
Yeah, I'd think any deal would have to revolve around several pitchers in return...
Solis, Cole, but who else? I hope Beane isn’t targeting Derek Norris. Too many question marks for him to be a centerpiece to a deal.
"As a rule we disbelieve all the facts and theories for which we have no use."
-Gustave Flaubert
by thinwhiteduke on Dec 19, 2011 5:43 PM PST up reply actions
Just noticed
Apparently Solis may have an injury. He was scheduled to see Dr. Lewis Yocum, but no update from that story a few days back. Pass on Solis now, and pass on the Nats being able to come up with a realistic return.
"As a rule we disbelieve all the facts and theories for which we have no use."
-Gustave Flaubert
by thinwhiteduke on Dec 19, 2011 6:50 PM PST up reply actions
If I had to guess...
A’s will probably insist on one of Brad Peacock/A.J. Cole. (Maybe both?) They also have an OF named Michael Taylor that I find interesting. Biggest issue is the most of their highest rated prospects are untouchable (Harper) or from the 2011 draft class. C Derek Norris is an enigma. Lots of K’s, lots of walks, lots of power and is projected to stay behind the plate.
If you hear the name Steve Lombardozzi come up resign yourself to violent impulses against the A’s FO. If Michael Morse is part of the deal act on those impulses.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I don't know what to make of Peacock. His minor league numbers are all over the place.
I like AJ Cole. Destin Hood is their only decent OF prospect. They’ll likely have to send over several of their best non-2011 drafted pitchers if they want a deal.
No fastball. Complete and total junkballer.
No thanks. Not unless he comes with Cole.
Taylor has some upside but his name might make him a non-starter for the A’s.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Shit.
I don’t care if he’s a junkballer if his K/BB ratio is 9.69 like it was in AAA last year. FG has his fastball at a hair under 88 MPH, which isn’t too bad for a LH starter.
Still fine with me. BTW, I have a real soft spot for LHP with excellent control.
Even more so if they wear their socks up.
I only like soft tossing lefties when the A's draft 'em
I don’t like it when they trade for them.
The monster at the end of this blog.
mlb ready back end throw in like smith/eveland
of course would he be any better than the outman/ross/godfrey/banwart group also waiting for chances?
I'd rate Milone a step above Smith/Eveland
He’s walked 43 guys in 332 IP over the past 2 seasons. neither Smith or Eveland ever featured that kind of control.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Rosenthal says the Nationals are pushing hard for Gio.
Link. I’m not really sure if Washington has enough to do it, considering their best talent is either untouchable (Harper) or un-tradable (Purke, Rendon, Meyer). AJ Cole, Samual Solis and Robbie Ray are interesting arms, and Destin Hood is an interesting, but raw outfielder.
Besides, I hope Beane waits until after the Darvish announcement because I think the teams left out could get a little desperate and overpay.
Baseball America's Nationals Top 10
1. Bryce Harper, of
2. Anthony Rendon, 3b
3. Brad Peacock, rhp
4. A.J. Cole, rhp
5. Brian Goodwin, of
6. Alex Meyer, rhp
7. Matt Purke, lhp
8. Sammy Solis, lhp
9. Derek Norris, c
10. Steve Lombardozzi, 2b/ss
Harper is a non-starter & Rendon is not tradeable yet.
So unless the Nats are sending over the top 4 arms in their system, I wouldn’t be too keen on a deal.
"As a rule we disbelieve all the facts and theories for which we have no use."
-Gustave Flaubert
by thinwhiteduke on Dec 19, 2011 5:48 PM PST up reply actions
Obviously Harper projects to be a starting player someday...
He is a non-starter in the sense that if Beane asks about him, RIzzo should pull the cord of his horribly outdated rotary phone out of the wall.
"As a rule we disbelieve all the facts and theories for which we have no use."
-Gustave Flaubert
by thinwhiteduke on Dec 19, 2011 5:51 PM PST up reply actions
so, I just looked up Brian Peacock's numbers
If the drop off in quality is that dramatic after Rendon I don’t get how the Nationals could be “pushing hard” in any way.
Can't the Nats trade Rendon as a PTBNL as of January?
Granted, he couldn’t be named till mid-season 2012.
You know you are big-time when people chant your name while you pee. - 67MARQUEZ
by bakerbeachboy on Dec 19, 2011 5:58 PM PST up reply actions
Whether they can or can't I don't see any reason why they would
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 19, 2011 10:17 PM PST up reply actions
Wouldn't seem likely at all...
…but since Harper is obviously not remotely a possibility I would hope that Rendon would/could be the centerpiece of any deal with the Nats.
You know you are big-time when people chant your name while you pee. - 67MARQUEZ
by bakerbeachboy on Dec 20, 2011 2:06 AM PST up reply actions
I am going to say right now that if Beane does somehow get Harper
I will shit myself.
Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.
I will not shit myself
But I will go around for a full day shouting to every new person I see, "FucXing “A” deal, man!" And I might be willing to shit on Zonis, too, although I don’t really know him well enough (or, at all). However, I am going to go out on a limb and say that it is more likely that Zonis simply accidentally shits himself tomorrow than we get Harper.
"As a rule we disbelieve all the facts and theories for which we have no use."
-Gustave Flaubert
by thinwhiteduke on Dec 19, 2011 6:01 PM PST up reply actions
See,ms like any nats non harper prospects are questionable
Woiuld anyone want drew storen as a potential bailey replacement? And maybe risk returning FDLS to sp?
NO. Last thing we need to worry about right now is who our next closer will be.
Plus Storen already has two years of service time. We need guys with zero service time.
"As a rule we disbelieve all the facts and theories for which we have no use."
-Gustave Flaubert
by thinwhiteduke on Dec 19, 2011 6:08 PM PST up reply actions
Based on what I'm reading here...
Once you get past Harper and Rendon, the Nationals have nothing to offer other than younger pitchers plus sketchy prospects. In that circumstance, Mr. Beane, DO NOT TRADE GIO GONZALEZ. PLEASE…..PLEASE.
What I'd rather see...
..is the season start to play out and then watch which contenders need a top starting pitcher and are willing to give up their future to strengthen their present.
Teams don't really get desperate like that until the trade deadline.
During that time, Gonzalez could decide to pitch like Rich Hill or get injured. Or he could improve. It’s a risk. If a team like Toronto, Washington, Boston, Detroit, or whoever else decides to pay top dollar now (what he’s actually worth, or slightly more), then it’s not a bad decision to move him.
Can't See the Return
I just don’t see anybody in the Nats system I want enough to trade Gio for them.
I mean: Harper, Rendon, Strasburg, Espinosa, Zimmerman.
But the Nats won’t trade any of those guys.
So…I don’t want some pile of Peacock and Norris in return. I want at least a couple of first rounders. I want the A’s to trade Gio straight up for Profar. Throw in anybody but Jarrod Parker/Choice/Gray to get that done.
There is no danger of Zonis shitting himself, though. Zero probability that Harper will be traded.
So, if Gio can net Profar straight-up, why is there a zero probability that he couldn't net Harper.
I don’t think Harper will be traded, but the folks at Sickels website ranked Harper #1 and Profar #4. If Gonzalez for Profar can be done, so can Gonzalez for Harper. Neither deal really makes sense for not-Oakland, but it’s conceivable.
Sometimes there is a sizeable difference b/w 1 and 4
This is one of those times.
"As a rule we disbelieve all the facts and theories for which we have no use."
-Gustave Flaubert
by thinwhiteduke on Dec 19, 2011 6:38 PM PST up reply actions
Sometimes there is a sizable difference in the hype between #1 and #4, too.
Profar had a 143 wRC+ in A-ball, compared to Harper’s 168 wRC+ at the same level. But Profar was four months younger and has excellent defense at a much harder position. The fact that Washington moved Harper up to AA has no bearing on Profar’s value.
Look, I’m not saying Harper’s acquirable, but I don’t think Profar should be considered touchable either. The gap between the Harper’s value and Profar’s value is there, but it probably isn’t as great as it appears at face value.
I personally believe a Gio for Profar deal was a big stretch anway.
As for, “The gap between the Harper’s value and Profar’s value is there, but it probably isn’t as great as it appears at face value.” – that is possible. But perception often becomes a sort of reality, and the perception right now is that Harper’s ceiling is something very, very special. Harper will not be traded to the A’s – if for no other reason than that there is so much hype surrounding him that the Washington fans and the media would crucify Rizzo if he did.
"As a rule we disbelieve all the facts and theories for which we have no use."
-Gustave Flaubert
by thinwhiteduke on Dec 19, 2011 7:03 PM PST up reply actions
Unless its a quantity over quality deal with nats
i’d do 6 for 1, A’s throw in sweeney or one of their many aging AAA prospects.
I dont see how any nats offers top their yankees/tigers/reds demands previously. Beane should wait it out on the darvish news or if marlins make morrison, yelich + available. I’d even prefer some padres deal
I don't think the Padres would be willing to meet the asking price for Gio.
But if were talking for sh**’s and giggles, I could see us parting with Rizzo, Darnell and Will Venable. Even though you have a ton of 1st base types, none have the upside of a Rizzo. Darnell should be a decent offensive 3rd basemen. Venable is a very athletic/toolsy, and he’s hit .272/.336/.435 on the road. He can play all 3 OF positions but is an excellent defensive RF. If you want Volquez, feel free to swap him out for any of the names.
"When you find your way. Then you see it disappear."
I was on the Cedar Fire in 2003
I’d take back my actions that week if the A’s traded Gio for the pile of crap you just suggested.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Will Venable has 2+ seasons in the bigs and is 30 years old
The A’s have absolutely no need for Rizzo and Darnell is maybe an upgrade over Sizemore. Or we can have Volquez as an alternative!
So Rizzo individually is not crap but when you smother him in shit…
The monster at the end of this blog.
I disagree you have no need for Rizzo.
You may have a lot of players manning first, but most of them are retreads and rejects from the island of misfit toys. I wouldn’t let any of them stop you from upgrading. Venable is older, but he didn’t start playing until he was 22.
I’ll give you Sizemore and Darnell. That’s probably a wash. But including Headley, which would even things out IMO, is the point we’d realistically bow out of the conversation. We could get him, there’s just no need for us to pay a heavy price.
"When you find your way. Then you see it disappear."
Feel free to disagree
Doesn’t change the fact that the A’s have more options at 1B then they can find at bats for. Rizzo is a fine prospect but do you realize he’s actually had more big league PA than Chris Carter has? Daric Barton’s worth a $1 million flier to see if he can again approach his 5 Win 2010 season.
And I got news for you… I like Headley but he’s not what the A’s are looking for in return for Gio. They want players they can control for the next 6 years. The A’s are looking for pitching, for outfielders and probably a SS. They’d take a Castellanos or Norris as they’re high-rated position prospects at premium spots.
None of that describes any of the players you brought up.
The monster at the end of this blog.
he did preface the comment with
I don’t think the Padres would be willing to meet the asking price for Gio.
But if were talking for sh**’s and giggles
I mean, it was admittedly just a stab in the dark.
Why would the Padres want Gio after trading Latos? Wouldn’t they have just kept Latos if they wanted a good, cheap, young SP?
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 20, 2011 12:48 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, no thanks. The A's want minor league talent. The farther away and the higher the ceiling,
the better. Considering reports have the A’s asking for two of Toronto’s top five, or an A-, a B+, and a B from Detroit, a deal with San Diego (I’m not sure why they’d trade one guy and then re-acquire of essentially the same value) would probably require Liriano, one of Erlin/Wieland/Sampson, and then at least two B-/C+ guys.
If the Padres wanted Gio,
I’d be asking for Grandal and Jaff Decker as part of the return. Would you bite?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
It's just that we're both in the same rebuilding boat.
That’s certainly a fair offer, but were not in a position to be trading away prospects. I’d just wish you luck in peeling away talent from the Tigers or Nats.
"When you find your way. Then you see it disappear."
Exactly - I don't see OAK and SD as being good trade partners for precisely that reason.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
OT: SF QB has missed 2 TD's with awful throws so far
I need points
It's hard to see how the A's and Nats can come to a deal...
Don’t really want any of the immediately available position players in the top 10.
They have a lot of pitching to offer though.
AJ Cole is a fringe Top-50 prospect. They would have to sacrifice some arms, but they probably could work something out. Like I said before, I’d be surprised (and disappointed) if they did something before the Yu Darvish sweepstakes winner is announced. Things will probably get crazy for the losers.
What do you know about Christian Yelich in the Marlins organization?
by Brett Narloch on Dec 19, 2011 7:06 PM PST up reply actions
What John Sickels writes about him.
He’s a pure hitter and has the chance to be a good defender in the OF. I don’t know if he can play CF or not. They’ve kept him in LF most of the time. He’s the type of OF the A’s should target, but the gap between him and other Marlins prospects is even larger than the gap between Harper and other Nationals prospects. I don’t think Miami has a good chance at making the best offer.
That's the impression I get...
Who has a realistic shot – wants Gio and has the goods?
1) Toronto
2) Texas
3) Yankees
4) Tigers
5) Royals
6) Atlanta
7) St. Louis
(In no particular order.)
I still see a package with Detroit most likely. Even though their best prospect is a pitcher… anytime you can get an A-ranked prospect, I think position drops on the priority list.
by Brett Narloch on Dec 19, 2011 7:19 PM PST up reply actions
I haven't seen Atlanta or St. Louis linked to Gonzalez at all. Do you have links?
It makes sense for St. Louis a lot more than Atlanta. Atlanta already has good MLB pitchers and MLB-ready pitchers.
If Toronto misses on Darvish, I think they’ll probably win. They could get Darvish and win Gio if they wanted. Plus, they’re the farm system I’d most like to raid (aside from St. Louis). I like Detroit’s package but I think Toronto or Texas could beat it quite easily if they wanted.
I haven't seen St. Louis linked to Gio...
But they’re not in sell mode, have the pieces to make it happen, have a title to defend, and a lot of cash they thought would be tied up with Pujols. I’m just speculating.
I also haven’t seen Atlanta linked. Just speculating.
by Brett Narloch on Dec 19, 2011 7:28 PM PST up reply actions
swing and a miss for the blue birds
now we shall see.
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
Rosenthal
Which isn’t to say Toronto would ignore Gio, just that Garza has his attractions as well.
The monster at the end of this blog.
That's why Beane might be wise to wait
Sometimes it’s better to be the last option, even if there are only 2-3 teams left looking than it is to compete with other decent options. As late as spring training, you know some contender’s #1 or #2 starter will go down.
The way I think Beane is playing is the way I’d want him to: Figure out what you want to ask for Gio and then don’t budge until/unless you get it.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
The flip side is that...
the 2 or 3 teams left might not have enough. In that case, my hope would be for the Nats to start strong and trade their tops picks to the A’s for Gio when those players can actually be traded.
by Brett Narloch on Dec 19, 2011 9:13 PM PST up reply actions
Right, but it seems like there are enough teams looking for starting pitching
(and when is that not the case?) that from amongst Toronto, Detroit, NYY and so on, there will be suitors for Gio who can give the A’s the kind of package they want. And once Darvish and Garza are off the market, those same deals might not look so bad.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I haven't heard Detroit linked to Garza...
Hopefully they accept a package around Turner
by Brett Narloch on Dec 19, 2011 9:35 PM PST up reply actions
For some reason, that's the deal I'm expecting
Which of course means Gio will go anywhere but DET.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
If Toronto trades for Garza, they're out on Gio
Maybe maybe Toronto adding Garza pushes the Yankees into bidding harder after Gio but Cashman has been fighting to keep his prospects. Detroit is light in position prospects other than Castellanos. Cincy is out. KC is only interested if they can keep Myers and Montgomery. Lamb had TJ, Starling is ineligible and a lot of their tools guys are still in SS ball or lower.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Turner, Castellanos, plus...
That sounds good to me…
by Brett Narloch on Dec 19, 2011 9:47 PM PST up reply actions
That's what I'd like
Or hang onto Gio and see who suddenly needs what, when.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
That's where I'm at in this process...
Turner is an “A” prospect… Castellanos is a “B+”… give me a Smyly or Flynn… and I’m happy.
by Brett Narloch on Dec 19, 2011 9:50 PM PST up reply actions
Turner is an A-
Castellanos is a good prospect. you can’t have Flynn, he’s a 2011 draftee.
The monster at the end of this blog.
re: "Detroit is light in position prospects other than Castellanos,"
What do you think of Daniel Fields (DET)? Pretty intriguing shortstop prospect from Sickels’ writeup.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Sickels lists him as a SS one place and an OFer another place,
so I’m actually not sure where Fields…fields.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Daniel Fields is a CF
Lousy repeat year in Lakeland. Has tools but incredibly raw. WTF was Detroit thinking starting him in High-A his first season? Definitely not ready for AA but a move out of the Florida League might do him wonders.
The monster at the end of this blog.
That's pretty much Sickels' take
That DET was loco to put him in high-A but that he responded pretty well considering, and that he’s a good “high risk/high reward” prospect. Seems like a good target for OAK if they could get him added to a deal.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Castellanos doesn't fill a need
He’s not a bad prospect by any means. Fields may be high upside but he’s also in need of a full rebuild. Adding Smyly might be asking too much, especially if the market slows a bit on Gio.
The monster at the end of this blog.
If Castellanos can hit a baseball, he fills a need
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 19, 2011 10:22 PM PST up reply actions
Ok...
Blue Jays ready?
Damn
Blue Jays want Garza more. Rangers won’t budge on Profar now since they’re not desperate.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
I hope Darvish accidentally gets a claw to the spleen from one of his teammates.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
You want his teammates to claw his spleen, or you want him to receive the claw embedded
in the spleen of one of his teammates?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 19, 2011 10:21 PM PST up reply actions
Sure.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Wouldn't it be easier just to tell him to rub Beltre's head before every pitch?
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
Yu Darvish
So after paying 51 million to talk to him, how much will Darvish get 10 million a year or more? I think he was making 8 million a year in Japan.
To be honest, I don't understand why Darvish would want to be posted
Why not wait a year? Then, sign with a team and not have to worry about the whole posting bid cutting into his offer…
Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.
more
I thought he still had to wait two or three years
He's got more than a year left in Japan if he were to stay
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
After 2014 is my understanding
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 19, 2011 10:19 PM PST up reply actions
Or the desire to get a Dellin Betances/Manny Banuelos plus Jesus Montero from the Yankees? Doesn’t seem quite so crazy right now.
I’ll tell you this. I will be absolutely shocked if the Yankees deal Montero in a trade for Gonzalez. More shocked than if Jeter decides to switch to be a starting pitcher.
Not even sure if the Yankees would give both Manny/Dellin.
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
"Every day is a great day for hockey."
link to what?
The quote is from dwishinsky’s main FanPost up above. The rest I assume is Brandon’s opinion. Brandon is one of the front-pagers at Pinstripe Alley.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Well I certainly wouldn't trade Montero for Gio, but we're still hoping the Yankees will
Plus we want more. Much more.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 19, 2011 10:21 PM PST up reply actions
Which is why I will be shocked if the Yankees get Gio. I’ve given up on it completely. The Yankees won’t even give Montero, better yet more.
Hopefully no one here is expecting a Gio to Yankees deal anytime soon, unless the Yankees get a major steal.
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
"Every day is a great day for hockey."
The problem I have with NYY is that, because Montero currently has no longterm defensive home,
he’s not enough for me. After Montero, I hate Dellin Betances, and the most of the rest I think are overhyped simply for being Yankees prospects. I think Montero and Banuelos is reasonable, but I also know most NYY fans would like to take a shit on my face for saying that.
Yeah, this is especially ugly
Betances: 6.06 BB+HBP/9
Banuelos: 5.48 BB+HBP/9
Montero lifetime AAA OPS: .843
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
I think Yankee fans
are overrating all of their top prospects, more then the Yankee FO is. Montero could be a great hitter, but he could just as easily become an .800 OPS DH. He will probably never hold any positive value at a defensive position, and I think it’s very possible his bat has been overhyped. I’m sorry but his 60 AB’s at the end of the season for the Yankees doesn’t make up for the fact that he had quite the underwhelming season (bored or not) at AAA. He’s still just a prospect.
Then you have Manuelos and Betances with their huge walk rates. I understand how much younger Banuelos is, but are two guys who can barely command their pitches, in the minor leagues, really THAT good to where it’s considered laughable when Beane brings Montero plus one of them up? I personally think it’s a product of the east coast hype machine, and sportswriters speculating on what a conversation between Cashman and Beane might sound like. I’m sorry but if asking for Montero plus one of Betances/Banuelos gets Beane laughed at then he needs to tell Cash and the Yanks to GTFO and enjoy finding a spot for all 3 of ARod, Tex and Montero in a couple years. Oh yeah, and enjoy that “lights out” rotation they’ll be sporting come opening day.
by JPShark on Dec 20, 2011 7:04 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
See now this is where the Yankees are going to disagree. They love their homegrown players and aren’t trading them unless they get someone like Felix. It’s why I see the Yankees just signing Kuroda and calling it an offseason.
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
"Every day is a great day for hockey."
I'll stick with the Rivercats
Its so very annoying that every Rivercat that does well with the A’s is traded cause the A’s owners dont want to spend $. In the meantime they send good minor leaguers to the Rivercats with these tradesthat lead to them consistently winning their division. When was the last A’s division win? I ’ll stick with the Rivercats. I can get a good close seat to watch a team committed to winning.
Hmm, let's test this theory.
I’m not sure exactly how you define “does well”, but just glancing at the hitting stats for guys who spent a significant amount of time on the team, I get this:
2011:
Brandon Allen = not traded
Jai Miller = not traded
Kevin Kouzmanoff = traded for cash
Anthony Recker = not traded
2010:
Matt Carson = traded for cash
Steve Tolleson = traded
Chris Carter = not traded
Dallas McPherson = not traded
2009:
Tommy Everidge = not traded
Aaron Cunningham = traded (after promotion)
Brett Wallace = traded
Eric Munson = not traded
2008:
Danny Putnam = traded
Jeff Baisley = not traded
Wes Bankston = not traded
Brooks Conrad = not traded
Yeah, you’re right. That really is annoying. It sure sucked losing promising guys like Kevin Kouzmanoff and Matt Carson.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Pile of Peacock
The Nats rumors aren’t going away, so it kind of does look like we’re going to get a pile of Peacock and Norris and no first rounders and no A- players and no impact bats. Instead we’ll get depth at catcher – a position where we already have depth. And more pitching depth – by trading away another good, cost-controlled pitcher.
So, piling up the surplus value and yet I don’t see this team getting better if that’s the trade they’ll make.
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