The Future of the A's 1B/OF/DH
by A'sFanDFW on Dec 16, 2011 2:27 PM PST
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PrintSo I guess we're not going to win the World Series in 2012. Sorry for the spoiler alert. That doesn't mean I'm going to stop being an A's fan. In fact, I'm excited about 2012. We're not going to win, but for long-term A's fans, there is a glimmer of hope. We get to see who we're going to be rooting for over the next six years.
For me, this is doubly exciting. My favorite player is and always has been Rickey Henderson. Unfortunately for me, I haven't really had another favorite since he retired. I'm hoping that somewhere in this next crop of guys that there's a guy I can follow. We really need several of Brandon Allen, Chris Carter, Collin Cowgill, Kila Ka'aihue, Jai Miller, and Michael Taylor to pan out for us to be competitive in 2013-2016. Who knows, maybe this is the core of the next great run.
Unfortunately, I'm not a minor league talent evaluator, so I'm stuck with Fangraphs wRC+. I live in Fort Worth, TX, so I have no idea what these guys looked like in Sacramento or wherever Cowgill, Allen, and Kila have been playing. Instead, let's look at their respective wRC+ over the last three years in the minors. I have excluded all major league experience for each of these guys and only included their performance in the minors.
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | ||||
| PA | wRC+ | PA | wRC+ | PA | wRC+ | |
| Allen | 502 | 138 | 469 | 140 | 420 | 141 |
| Carter | 651 | 165 | 551 | 125 | 372 | 124 |
| Cowgill | 260 | 116 | 577 | 127 | 456 | 155 |
| Ka'aihue | 555 | 120 | 416 | 173 | 388 | 103 |
| Miller | 386 | 124 | 333 | 103 | 475 | 134 |
| Taylor | 491 | 162 | 523 | 94 | 400 | 103 |
A few observations on these stats. For the most part, these stats were accumulated in AAA. Cowgill, however, progressed up the ladder from high A ball to AA to AAA in each season.
The three best seasons among these guys are from Kila (173 wRC+ in 2010), Chris Carter (165 wRC+ in 2009) and Michael Taylor (162 wRC+ in 2009). The problem with Taylor is that he also put up the two worst seasons. Kila and Jai tied Taylor's second worst season with very average 103 wRC+ seasons. Let's face it - I only included Jai Miller in the discussion so that I wouldn't have to answer the question of why I didn't put in the guy that hit 30+ bombs in AAA in 2011. Not only is his strikeout rate ridiculous, he simply doesn't have the numbers to compete with any of the other guys except Michael Taylor. To me, that says that Taylor and Jai have alot to prove before they jump any of these other guys.
You may be asking yourself, "Where is Daric Barton in this discussion?" Great question. Daric Barton does not belong in this discussion whatsoever. He is one injury plagued season removed from a 5 WAR 2010. He does not belong in a conversation with six players who have a combined -1.2 career WAR. Period. Our outfield will also have Swingles somewhere in the mix. He would probably provide the most WAR next year, if given the chance. However, I would prefer to see us win one fewer game and figure out who among the youth movement is actually worth keeping on the field.
I personally would love to see Chris Carter turn out to be the power hitting DH of the future. It's not like we have any other guys that can really hit but can't play the field that we should be giving those AB's to anyway.. Since we know he can't field, we might as well see if he can hit at the Major League level. I also want to see if Brandon Allen can be as good as all of the quotes everyone made up. I'm also kinda hoping that this Cowgill guy is our starting center fielder next year. It remains to be seen what we're going to get out of the crop that's a couple years younger than these 25-26 year olds. Parker, Green, and Choice all have shown some promise, but I really have no idea how they'll develop.
None of these guys will ever be Rickey Henderson. But maybe someone can be my new favorite active player.
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Here's what I'd do: Barton at 1B, Allen in LF, Cowgill & Sweeney platoon in CF, Taylor in RF, Carter at DH.
If Mitchell comes back healthy, he takes Sweeney’s spot as the platoon in CF. Whoever is performing better between Taylor and Sweeney takes the RF spot. Kila starts in Sacramento and replaces Carter or Barton if they decide to suck.
by NateHST on Dec 16, 2011 2:45 PM PST reply actions 5 recs
I'd really rather Cowgill play full time in CF
Sweeney is fine as a backup, but I’d rather watch Cowgill work through some struggles than watch the failed attempt that OldBob did at platooning last year.
John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson
We can't look at things that Geren fucked up and assume that it doesn't work in general.
Mitchell and Sweeney are both awful against LHP. Cowgill’s playing in Venezuela so I can’t see his splits for last season on MiLB (is there any other place you can find MiLB splits?), but his splits in Arizona show a significant difference.
NateHST has the plan...
Barring injury (it’s the A’s… we know they’ll happen) and/or extreme suckitude in ST, this plan needs to be tried first.
At one point in my life I liked Dave Kingman more than Rickey Henderson. I was stupid.
by the_rozeboom on Dec 17, 2011 10:08 AM PST up reply actions
I hear the Siberian League is a pitchers heaven... cold bats don't get hits.
At one point in my life I liked Dave Kingman more than Rickey Henderson. I was stupid.
by the_rozeboom on Dec 17, 2011 10:49 AM PST up reply actions
You know... I rec'd just a couple days ago
And I still think you’re probably right.
But there might be a wild card in play…
The monster at the end of this blog.
Is Barton going to be ready to start the season?
If not, then Kila at 1B, Allen in LF, Cowgill in CF, Sweeney in RF and Carter at DH.
Taylor belongs in AAA till he shows that he can hit there.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 18, 2011 7:49 AM PST up reply actions
Think A's are set on Sweeney in RF & Cowgill in CF
I’m pretty sure I recently saw either Beane or Forst saying Sweeney was set to be the starting right fielder because the situation with his knees didn’t make him a good option in center. It looks to me from everything I’ve seen and heard that the A’s are set on having Sweeney in right and Cowgill in center, with God knows who in left – at this point, I’d guess they’d most likely give Taylor a shot. But I’d expect they’ll probably pick up another left field option in trade or as a late (cheap) free agent signing – probably someone like Endy Chavez, Rick Ankiel, Willie Harris or whoever else is still left out there and doesn’t mind watching the playoffs on TV come October…
They could something at 1B/LF like
rotate Barton, Allen, and Taylor a bit, knowing that Barton needs a few days off in April/May, and that picking out a few “tough LHPs/tough RHPs” to sit Allen and Taylor might give them a better chance to gain confidence.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Taylor actually posted a pretty significant reverse split last season.
vs LHP: .229/.292/.406 in 96 AB
vs. RHP: .289/.384/.474 in 253 AB
Small sample size caveat applies, but his K/BB ratio was a lot worse against LHP, too.
Interesting; didn't know that, wonder if it means anything
How about previous years?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I don't know where to find minor league splits from previous years.
MiLB.com only posts the current season’s data, AFAIK.
Barton always seems to have strong reverse splits as well
but Allen sure seems like a much more typical lefty who’d be well-suited to a platoon situation…if not with Taylor, with Chris Carter perhaps?
I'll call him Christ Carter only if he hits 30+ HR next year
Enter arbitrary sig line here
by theoriginalrods on Dec 16, 2011 3:07 PM PST reply actions
Duly noted
and changed. That was not a subliminal message that Mr. Carter is in fact the Messiah or any link to the upcoming Christmas holiday, just a spelling error
John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson
Just giving you a hard time- I'm not religious at all
Enter arbitrary sig line here
by theoriginalrods on Dec 16, 2011 3:27 PM PST up reply actions
Besides, everyone knows that Tim Tebow is the Messiah
"Hello and welcome to another wonderful and frightening night of A's baseball." - Gaijin_Suketto
by EddieVegas_NRAF on Dec 18, 2011 9:09 AM PST up reply actions
we had the messiah last season
and he had his worst big league season.
Slegna must die!
by Athletics fan and runner on Dec 19, 2011 4:28 AM PST up reply actions
I don't get why so many don't want Sweeney to start in the OF.
Of the players we have left from 2011, he is 1st in OBP, 2nd in BA, and 3rd in wOBA. They,(the FO), took it easy on him last year, due to the recovery from knee surgery, and he should be able to go full-tilt in ST. He is an above average defender w/a great arm, and gets on base.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
He was an above average defender BEFORE he had surgery. It remains to be seen how good he still is.
And he’s an average hitter at best. He should only be starting on a team that’s as bad as Oakland.
True, but that is the same for any of the OFers.
If you don’t play him, you won’t know. Platooning him isn’t the answer.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
Sweeney has over 1,600 major league at-bats to his name.
He’s way more of a known talent than anybody else in the conversation.
The post acknowledges that Sweeney would probably win you an extra game or two starting over these guys
But the poster wants to see what the young guys can do instead.
Either way I am not against Sweeney starting. It’s just that if we are having sweeney start, it means that our team is that bad that Sweeney has to start. Says more about the quality of the rest of the players.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 16, 2011 5:52 PM PST up reply actions
Because we're looking to audition young guys, in the hope that they're better than Sweeney.
If we were looking to compete this year? Sweeney would be a decent position-filler.
Yes, but he is also only two injury(actually, 1 injury spread over two seasons) years away from a 4+WAR year.
I hardly see cause to reject him abilities in 2012. I would like to see if he can return to a 3-4 WAR player.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
He probably can achieve a solid level of production.
But what helps us more? Winning an extra 1-2 games in 2012, or discovering who might be long-term fits for the franchise in a position for years to come? For example, Ellis always played well for this team, no question. But his injury is the best thing that happened last year, we got a chance to see Weeks get extended time and perform well. Now we know our 2B for the next 5 years (maybe more). That is the calculation here; many people don’t want to waste ABs on a relatively known quantity, even if he is better than our unknowns. The unknowns carry intrigue, the possibility of being exceptional and exciting the fan base.
Look, if all these guys are abysmal in the spring, Sweeney will be starting by default. It would take something exceptional for all 3 spots filled without Sweeney. Everyone is just hoping that Allen, Cowgill, Taylor, et al earn a spot (which would mean they had a great spring). If they are freakin terrible in the spring, they are starting in AAA.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 16, 2011 6:13 PM PST up reply actions
Ryan is the same age as Barton.
They both started here at a young age. At 26, Ryan is only 1 year older than both Cowgill, and Taylor, as well as BRANDON. ALLEN. Sweeney can still be a part of this team going forward.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
Or, is all this just about DINGERZ!
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
he totally can.
It’s more about grass is greener than Dingerz. Sweeney is old reliable, but people want flashy, new!
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 16, 2011 6:45 PM PST up reply actions
I want Sweeney to suddenly become awesome.
That would qualify as new.
And I don’t think it’s significantly less likely than one of the “new” guys becoming awesome.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
This is all I'm saying.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
btw I would love it if someone beat out Barton for the 1B job as well.
by Billy Frijoles on Dec 16, 2011 6:45 PM PST up reply actions
He's heading for 3rd base.
Right, mikev?
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
AWWWWWW YEAH.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
I know this has been discussed before... but remind me:
Why don’t the A’s give Barton a try at third?
At one point in my life I liked Dave Kingman more than Rickey Henderson. I was stupid.
by the_rozeboom on Dec 17, 2011 10:52 AM PST up reply actions
I would too somewhat but I don't think they exist within the system
As it currently is I feel his is the best option for 1B and toss Allen in LF until he is a complete bust lottery ticket.
Yeah, but if he comes close to putting up the numbers he did in 2010
Then there is no reason to replace him. Hopefully his struggles were because of the injury and not because he’s just wildly inconsistent.
So, he is in the same situation as Sweeney.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
Not even close.
At his best, Sweeney is a league average hitter with plus defense. At his best, Barton is a plus hitter with plus defense. We’re talking a gap of 15-20 runs here.
Sorry, I meant that his struggles were from injuries.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
That's the hope.
He might just not have it together. I would love for him to produce like he did before. And like everyone else I just don’t know if he will.
He's never been a 3-4 WAR player.
That 4.2 WAR season? He was a league-average batter that year. The huge value came from his +20.6 (!!!) UZR score, which, frankly, is ridiculous. Remember that UZR doesn’t necessarily reflect actual fielding, and because Ryan had such an off-the-charts score, the correct thing to do would be to regress it properly.
The lone exception I can think of is Brett Gardner in LF, but since he’s put up a +30 UZR/150 every single year in the bigs, the proper amount of regression is very small.
I was regressing him.
I didn’t say he could be a 4-5 WAR, I said a 3-4. At his young age, we don’t know if it was a fluke or not. I’m just saying he should be given a shot this year. And not as a platoon player only.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
Yeah, he's relatively young, but he's had over 1,600 at-bats and all he's got to show
is a wRC+ of 95. If he can’t be consistently good on defense, he’s basically a 4th OF.
I can agree with this.
But he also hasn’t had consistent playing time since mid-2010.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
...because he's had surgeries on both his knees,
which doesn’t bode well since he depends on (mostly) range to be a 3-4 WAR player rather than a 1-2 WAR player. We all see his value, but even healthy Sweeney has limited upside. What do you really think he can show us with a full season this year that he hasn’t shown in the previous four years?
I thought he only had surgery on the rt knee.
He can show us that he is healed, and can play without problems. The rest will take care of itself.
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
You're right. Surgery on his right knee.
But his left knee has tendonitis and also gave him problems last year.
I didn't realize it was that high.
Nor, did I realize that Brett Gardner was that much of a beast defensively. I thought he was good…but hot damn.
The Dennis Green factor.
He Is Who We Thought He Is. A fourth outfielder. Also, he only had one of the knees operated on. The other one is still likely to break.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
Is there a player named Micheal Choice in the A's minor system? Is he ready?
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
He probably starts at Midland this year with maybe a Rivercat playoff run to end the season
I have a hard time seeing him in Oakland before the middle of 2013
So the Rivercats are in the playoffs? Awesome!
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 18, 2011 7:51 AM PST up reply actions
Well, they almost always are...
I love rebuilding.
by John of Gaunt on Dec 18, 2011 1:53 PM PST up reply actions
Read an A's front office type somewhere
say that Green or Choice could get a call-up if they go nuts in the minors this year. Not worried about the former.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
You folks would hate this...
But I’d start Barton in AAA and give him a month to see if he’s come all the way back. Meanwhile, I’d platoon Allen and Carter at 1B/DH, start Cowgill, Sweeney and the late signing in the outfield, with the back-ups being whoever performs best in spring training amongst Mitchell, Miller, Taylor and whoever.
That would be April. By May, if Barton is back to his 2010 form, then he returns to 1B. If Allen has been hitting, he goes into the outfield, and the rest of the outfield/DH line-up is determined by what happened in April.
I wouldn’t worry about Sweeney. I’d play him every day. When the deadline comes up, he should be a target and maybe the A’s could get a good prospect or two back.
I hope everyone realizes...
..that the moment Sweeney is traded, he’ll develop a power stroke.
And pretty inlikely
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Barton doesn't need to prove he can hack in in AAA, though.
He needs to prove he can hack it in the bigs.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Why not give him a month in MLB to see if he's come all the way back?
It’s not like it’s hurting our contention chances if we give him a month in Oakland and he sucks.
I still don't understand how Sweeney can be thought of as having trade value.
I’m not even convinced he wouldn’t clear waivers if he was DFAed.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
An average defensive CFer who can hit .280?
That would be an upgrade for some teams.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Ooh! Like the San Jose A's?
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."-anonymous
"i guess i just like beer"-stm
No, silly.
We have COWGILL. Moo!!!!!! {breathes under water} Moo!!!!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
He is going to remind me of the cartoon series, "Jane and the Dragon"
The Dragon loves listening to the farmer’s cows. “They make the best sound. It starts with an”Mmmm" and ends with an “Oooooh” Mmmmoooooh!"
"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."-anonymous
"i guess i just like beer"-stm
Moo + Omega 3 = COWGILL!!!!!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Mωωω!
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Do you think if we brought that to the ballpark on a big sign
that Cowgill would understand?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I don't think any team outside of Oakland views him as a legit centerfielder.
The question is whether or not you’d claim Gabe Gross on waivers, or let him pass, then sign him. If I had to bet, I think most teams would prefer to gamble that you could get him for close to nothing.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
The only thing Barton has to prove
is that he’s healthy and that he’s the same player he was in 2010. I think he can do both of those in Spring Training.
John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson
Reply Fail to richwol1
John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson
On a positive note, everyone gets to start in 1st place
I just hope they try to win, instead of constantly making bad choices. It could happen. Just can’t wait till football this Sunday. The sad part about trying to have a favorite player on the A’s is you can’t for long. Even Rickey went to New York for a while. So till they trade Outman, he’s the man. I had Chris Carter’s first home run almost hit me last time I was able to go to a game, so I look forward to watching his progress. I hope Doolittle is around for a while. One of his home runs almost hit me last time I went to see the Ports in Stockton. Good to see him in the bigs.
AFC West Assassins...
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