FanPost

A Look At Jai Miller

UPDATE: A few people pointed out that the graphs I have are actually graphs with MLB performance. These are kind of useless because Miller has very little playing time in the majors. For now, I'll leave them, but I'm going to try to find minor league graphs. If anyone has a website with good minor league graphs, could you please post it (fan graphs.com doesn't work; they only have his MLB graphs)? Thanks!

It doesn't take a genius to realize that the the A's outfield is pretty messed up; none of our three starting OF'ers in 2011 will return next year - that could be a good thing or a bad thing, depending on your point of view - and the A's aren;t looking like they'll sign any free agent outfielders, so it'll be up to Ryan Sweeney and a bunch of youngsters to handle the OF situation next season. On of those rookies is Jai Miller.

Miller has never been an outstanding prospect; when you hear people talk about Oakland minor league outfielders, they're usually referring to Michael Taylor or Michael Choice. In my opinion, Miller hasn't gotten the recognition he deserves, because he could turn out to be a seriously good player.

First, let's take a look at his minor league stats:

Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB
2003 18 2 Teams 2 Lgs Rk-A- FLA 57 214 189 22 39 7 1 1 21 10 4 18 60 .206 .282 .270 .552 51 4 3 1 3 0
2003 18 Marlins GULF Rk FLA 46 166 146 17 29 4 1 1 15 9 3 15 45 .199 .279 .260 .539 38 4 2 1 2 0
2003 18 Jamestown NYPL A- FLA 11 48 43 5 10 3 0 0 6 1 1 3 15 .233 .292 .302 .594 13 0 1 0 1 0
2004 19 Greensboro SALL A FLA 113 433 390 51 80 15 3 12 49 11 4 32 163 .205 .273 .351 .625 137 10 5 5 1 0
2005 20 Greensboro SALL A FLA 115 479 415 69 86 14 2 13 34 16 11 57 139 .207 .305 .345 .650 143 5 3 1 3 1
2006 21 Jupiter FLOR A+ FLA 111 401 344 40 72 16 2 0 24 24 10 45 115 .209 .308 .267 .576 92 5 5 5 2 1
2007 22 Carolina SOUL AA FLA 129 473 406 54 106 26 2 14 58 12 5 55 127 .261 .354 .438 .792 178 10 5 4 3 3
2008 23 Albuquerque PCL AAA FLA 117 498 434 67 116 22 5 19 56 20 6 52 133 .267 .349 .472 .821 205 5 5 2 5 3
2009 24 New Orleans PCL AAA FLA 102 390 343 55 99 24 2 16 52 6 3 38 106 .289 .360 .510 .870 175 4 3 1 5 2
2010 25 2 Teams 1 Lg AAA KCR,OAK 94 387 345 47 87 24 2 18 57 5 3 38 132 .252 .326 .490 .815 169 7 1 0 3 0
2010 25 Omaha PCL AAA KCR 84 350 311 45 83 24 2 18 56 2 3 35 113 .267 .340 .531 .871 165 7 1 0 3 0
2010 25 Sacramento PCL AAA OAK 10 37 34 2 4 0 0 0 1 3 0 3 19 .118 .189 .118 .307 4 0 0 0 0 0
2011 26 Sacramento PCL AAA OAK 110 475 410 81 113 24 4 32 88 16 0 54 179 .276 .368 .588 .956 241 4 8 0 3 1
9 Seasons 948 3750 3276 486 798 172 23 125 439 120 46 389 1154 .244 .328 .425 .753 1391 54 38 19 28 11
AAA (4 seasons) AAA 423 1750 1532 250 415 94 13 85 253 47 12 182 550 .271 .351 .516 .867 790 20 17 3 16 6
A (2 seasons) A 228 912 805 120 166 29 5 25 83 27 15 89 302 .206 .290 .348 .638 280 15 8 6 4 1
AA (1 season) AA 129 473 406 54 106 26 2 14 58 12 5 55 127 .261 .354 .438 .792 178 10 5 4 3 3
Rk (1 season) Rk 46 166 146 17 29 4 1 1 15 9 3 15 45 .199 .279 .260 .539 38 4 2 1 2 0
A- (1 season) A- 11 48 43 5 10 3 0 0 6 1 1 3 15 .233 .292 .302 .594 13 0 1 0 1 0
A+ (1 season) A+ 111 401 344 40 72 16 2 0 24 24 10 45 115 .209 .308 .267 .576 92 5 5 5 2 1

He's been hanging around in the minors for quite some time, now; since 2003, in fact. He's spent almost all of his minor league career in the Marlins' system, and 2011 was the first year that he played a full season in Sacramento. Looking at his stats, he seems to be a guy who has power and can drive in runs; however, his average is low, his strikeout rate is high, and he has a low OBP. Doesn't take a lot of walks, either. He hits a fair amount of doubles and some triples; his speed is nothing to write home about.

From 2004-2006, he played in over 100 games each year, but had an average around the Mendoza Line. He also had 417 strikeouts compared to 134 walks in 1313 plate appearances. He didn't hit a lot of homers; in fact, in 2006, he had 0 homers coupled with 24 RBI and a .209 average.

The season I want to look at specifically is 2011: Not only did he hit .276, he had 88 RBI, and, more surprisingly, 32 homeruns. How does a guy who has never hit 20 homeruns in a year suddenly hit 32? Is it just that he's a big, strong guy?

Jai Miller GB/FB/LD : Season Stats Graph

Here's a graph showing his flyball/groundball/line drive rate since 2008. It's pretty clear that he's a flyball hitter; his percentages of flyballs peaked this year, while his line drive rate decreased. About 68% of balls hit were flyballs, 14 were line drives, and 28% were groundballs. A high flyball ratio can lead to homers, so this may help us understand Miller.

Jai Miller `K/PA` * 100 : Season Stats Graph

This graph shows his strikeout percentage. Not much to be said here: his strikeout numbers are off the charts, definitely in the "poor" zone. He's a free swinger, and he strikes out a lot. Not overly concerned about this.

And, well, that's all I've got to say. Miller is a power hitter who strikes out a lot, doesn't walk much, and can hit absolute bombs. His 2nd homerun in the majors was an opposite field shot in Safeco Field, no small feat. To sum everything up: I like him. All of the young guys will get plenty of playing time in 2012, and Miller will be among them. He's a good kid with power, and could be a good young player in the MLB.

More graphs can be found here:

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=5715&position=OF&page=0&type=full

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