What Draft Picks Will We Get?
by iglew on Dec 13, 2011 7:22 PM PST
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Print[UPDATE (Dec 18): This post is out of date. I made an error with the order in the sandwich round and I'm no longer current with recent signings (eg, Rollins). I am not updating my list because a similar effort at Twinkie Town, SBN's Twins' blog, is more thorough and more accurate. For a better assessment of likely draft order, I recommend that post.]
Over in another thread, there is some discussion of where the A's draft picks will be next year. I took a shot at trying to figure it out. As long as I'm doing so, I may as well write a post about it. This serves two purposes: First, it shares my work with the rest of AN. Second, it lets you help make sure I get it right.
In fact, I'm not at all sure I've got it right. With regard to the rules, I think I have them correct, but it's possible I've missed something. With regard to the signings so far, I'm not at all sure I've got all of them, but even if I have, there will no doubt be more soon.
So please chime in with any corrections or updates in the comments. I'll try to edit the main post where I can.
The Rules
1. Basic Draft.
For the basic draft, each team gets one pick per round. The order for picks in 2012 is the reverse of the order of final standings in 2011. Draft order for 2012 is as follows:
1 Astros, 2 Twins, 3 Mariners, 4 Orioles, 5 Royals, 6 Cubs, 7 Padres, 8 Pirates, 9 Marlins, 10 Rockies, 11 Athletics, 12 Mets, 13 White Sox, 14 Reds, 15 Indians, 16 Nationals, 17 Blue Jays, 18 Dodgers, 19 Angels, 20 Giants, 21 Braves, 22 Cardinals, 23 Red Sox, 24 Rays, 25 Diamondbacks, 26 Tigers, 27 Brewers, 28 Rangers, 29 Yankees, 30 Phillies
2. Compensation for Unsigned Players.
If a team fails to sign its first-round pick in 2011, it gets an extra first-round pick in 2012 at the same slot as the prior year. Last year the Blue Jays had the #21 overall pick. They chose Tyler Beede and failed to sign him. Therefore an extra pick for the Jays will be inserted in the first round at #21, and the nine teams picking 21st through 30th will be bumped down by one slot.
3. Compensation for Free Agents (old rules)
At the end of the year, all of the free agents coming available that year are ranked according to a formula used by the Elias Sports Bureau. The formula is intended to rank the players according to how good they are. (Exactly how good a player is is subjective. I think most would agree that the Elias formula has its failings, but it does at least approximate overall talent.)
From this list, a group from the top is designated "type A", and another group below that is designated "type B". When a type A free agent is signed by a new team (and also meets other conditions; notably, is offered arbitration) then the new team must give a draft pick to the old team. If the new team is in the top half of the draft order, that pick will be in the 2nd round; if the new team is in the bottom half of the draft order, it will be in the 1st round.
Note that this does not add an additional pick. The pick that was already there goes from one team to the other. For example, the Angels were slated to get the #19 pick in the first round. Because they signed Albert Pujols, that #19 pick will go to the Cardinals instead. The Cardinals get two first-round picks and the Angels get none; the rest of the round is unaffected.
Additionally, when a Type A or Type B free agent is signed by a new team (and meets the other conditions), the old team gets a "sandwich pick". Sandwich picks come in the "sandwich round", which is a group of picks inserted between the first and second round. Note that the sandwich pick for a Type A free agent is in addition to the compensation pick. For a Type B free agent, the sandwich pick is the only benefit, and it costs the old team nothing. The sandwich picks are collected in the order of the Elias ranking from best to worst, so the Type A picks will all come before the Type B picks. [EDIT: This is incorrect. The sandwich round does not go in Elias order. The A's are before the B's, and within each group they go in regular draft order.]
4. Compensation for Free Agents (new rules)
The rules listed above are from the old CBA. The new CBA scraps that system entirely at the end of the 2012 season. For the current off-season, the old system mostly applies, but with some modifications. The exact nature of the modifications has not been disclosed in full detail, but we have a pretty good idea of how it works. The gist of it is that several of the would-be Type A free agents have been reclassified. Six of them have been named "modified Type A" and five more have been named "modified Type B".
The modified Type B's are simple. They were on the bottom of the Type A list before, and now they're on the top of the Type B list. They are treated exactly like Type B free agents now.
For modified Type A's, if one of them is signed, the old team still gets its compensation and sandwich picks. However, the compensation pick is not taken away from the old team. Instead, the new team gets its compensation pick exactly where it otherwise would, and the old team still gets its pick directly after that, with the rest of the picks being bumped down a slot.
Remember that a Type A compensation pick is in the second round if the old team is in the top 15 of the draft order, or it is in the first round if the old team is in the bottom 15 of the draft order. (Note: One report suggested that a further modification changes this so that the compensation pick is moved to the second round only if the old team is in the top 10 of the draft order. I personally believe this to be a misinterpretation, but the evidence is not clear on the point. This will only make a difference if one of the two remaining modified Type A players (Michael Cuddyer, Ryan Madsen) is signed by one of the five team in the 11-15 range of the order (Athletics, Mets, White Sox, Reds, Indians), which probably won't happen.)
The Rankings
Type A:
Albert Pujols (Y)
David Ortiz (N)
Prince Fielder (?)
C.J. Wilson (Y)
Jonathan Papelbon (Y)
Carlos Beltran (N*)
José Reyes (Y)
Jimmy Rollins (?)
Takashi Saito (N*)
Modified Type A:
Michael Cuddyer (?)
Kelly Johnson (N)
Josh Willingham (Y)
Heath Bell (Y)
Ryan Madson (?)
Francisco Rodriguez (N)
Modified Type B:
Ramón Hernández (Y)
Matt Capps (N)
Francisco Cordero (?)
Darren Oliver (?)
Octavio Dotel (Y)
Type B:
Jason Kubel (?)
Rod Barajas (Y)
Aramís Ramírez (Y)
Raúl Ibáñez (?)
Mark Ellis (Y)
Ryan Doumit (Y)
Mark Buehrle (Y)
Frank Francisco (Y)
Bruce Chen (N)
Jason Fraser (?)
David DeJésus (Y)
Edwin Jackson (?)
Magglio Ordóñez (?)
Derrek Lee (?)
Dan Wheeler (?)
Freddy García (N)
José Molina (Y)
Aaron Hill (N)
Aaron Harang (Y)
Clint Barmes (Y)
Carlos Peña (?)
Jon Rauch (Y)
Wilson Betemit (?)
I've labeled each player with Y, N or ?. Y indicates that the free agent has been signed with another team and will result in picks. N indicates that the player will not result in picks, either because he re-signed with the same team or because he was not offered arbitration (the latter group are marked N*). ? indicates that the player still might or might not result in picks.
Please keep me updated with any signings I may have missed, or correct any I have mislabeled.
Among the modified Type A's, Willingham's signing with the Twins gives us an additional pick directly ahead of the Twins' second-round pick. Bell's signing with the Marlins will add a pick for San Diego after our Willingham compensation pick but before our regular 2nd round pick. If Cuddyer and/or Madsen sign with a new team, each would add a pick that could be in the first round or the second depending on the team that signs him.
In the sandwich round, there are currently four picks ahead of our sandwich pick for Willingham, nine more before our sandwich pick for DeJésus, and four more after that. Additionally, there are three more possible picks before our Willingham pick, six more possible picks before our DeJésus pick, and six more possible picks after that.
The Draft Order
Based on the above data, I believe the A's picks fall in the draft order as follows:
[EDIT: The list below has the sandwich picks in the wrong order. I will correct when I have a chance. In the meantime, see comment below for a link to a better list on a Twins site.]
1-10. First-round picks before the A's.
11. A's first-round pick
12-31. First-round picks after the A's, including Toronto's compensation pick for Beede.
[Possible insert one or two compensation picks for modified Type A signed by bottom-half team. Either or both of these may be inserted in the second round instead.]
32-35 [-37]. Sandwich picks before our first one.
[possible insert up to three more sandwich picks]
36 [-41]. A's sandwich pick for Willingham.
37-45. Sandwich picks between our two.
[possible insert up to six more sandwich picks]
46 [-57]. A's sandwich pick for DeJésus.
47-50 [-61]. Sandwich picks after ours.
[possible insert up to six more sandwich picks]
51 [-68]. First second-round pick.
52 [-69]. A's compensation pick for Willingham.
53-62 [-79]. Nine more second-round pick plus Padres' compensation pick for Bell.
63 [-80]. A's second-round pick.
64... The rest of the second round and the rest of the draft.
(Updated Dec 13, ~9:30pm)
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Comments
Oops, now I see that Willingham to the Twins
is not yet final. I’ll leave the post as is for now; edit it if and when the signing is officially called off.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
I applaud you for trying to do the heavy lifting but...
the best way to figure out draft order this early in the offseason is kinda like the easiest way to catch a knuckleball.
Just wait until it stops rolling around by the backstop and then pick it up.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Good analogy.
I do feel a bit Mirabelli-ish right now.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Yep, you stole it from Uecker. I stole it too.
JJ Martin
The best way to catch a knuckleball is to wait until the ball stops rolling and then pick it up. ~Bob Uecker
Haha
This is impressive work, but unfortunately it’ll change plenty before now and the draft. At least you do not need to try and factor in the lottery this year.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 15, 2011 10:47 PM PST up reply actions
Unbelievable.
Wilson Betemit and Dan Wheeler are typed, and Coco isn’t? Elias is a joke.
by Rebuilding Season on Dec 14, 2011 11:44 AM PST up reply actions
+1!
"You're early, but hang around; we'll have a fight for you sooner or later."
-John "Blue Moon" Odom
Elias has determined this +1 should be +0.75
"He's listed as day to day, but then again, aren't we all?" — Vin Scully
by YonYonson on Dec 15, 2011 10:50 AM PST up reply actions 3 recs
Worst Case
At the very least we’ll have five picks in the top eighty.
And we could have five picks in the top sixty-two.
Which is much better than we’ve had in any draft for a long time.
I just wish it were a deeper draft, and I wish we had more than one pick in the first round.
I thought Ortiz accepted arb from the Red Sox and Aramis signed with the Brewers
Didn’t Betemit sign with the Pirates?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
Isn't there also a Draft Lottery after the 1st round?
Or does that start next year? I think it goes right before the supplemental picks 6 of them if I’m not mistaken and 6 after the second round.
That starts next year.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Should have mounted a campaign for him to go back to the Nationals
"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer
Slot
I can see the A’s or any team with multi picks in the early part of the draft, making a pre draft deal with a kid to sign for well below slot. With so many picks the A’s might pick a player they thought would go in the 4th or 5th round, and pay him a bit more than 4th or 5th round money but take him with a sandwich pick. Like what they did with the Moneyball catcher. The reason is to get more money, so that they can go over cap on other players.
MLB will give the A’s a set amount that they will able to spend on their top 10 rounds of the draft. My understanding is that if you do not sign a play with a pick, you lose the money avalible for that pick. So the best way to gain money to go over slot, is to go under on other slots. Picks after the 3rd round do not make much so there is more money to play with if you underpay a sandwich..
So for example with if DeJesus’ sandwich pick at say pick 50 with a slot of $1,000,000 you sign a kid that was going to go in the 4th round. A 4th round slot is about $175,000. So if you before the draft go to the kid and say “Your agent is telling you you are likely to go in the 4th round, we will draft you as a sandwich pick and give you $200,000. But you need to agree to it before we draft you.” If that happens the A’s get an extra $800,000 to sign other players in the first 10 rounds.
With so many picks the A’s can afford to under use one to help out the rest. In future years with less early picks it would be hard to do.
Why do we want 2 4th round picks instead of a sandwich and a 4th rounder?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 14, 2011 10:32 AM PST up reply actions
better players
If by dropping a sandwich pick to a 4th round player, the A’s can sign a better players at their other 4 picks, I am willing. For example say their is a player that falls out of the first round because he says want $2.0 million. He should have gone about pick 25, but fell for some reason. The slot for the last pick in the 1st round is say, $1.5 million. Many team will not pick this player, because they do not want to go over slot (MLB has a big penalty for going over). With the idea I suggested the A’s could pick this player at pick 60 and pay him money from the slot for pick 50 and pick 60 and still have enough to sign the 4th rounder they picked early. In effect the A’s are trading pick 50 and 60 for pick 25 and 130.
I hope this helps as to why it might be ok to do.
If this were to happen, I'd want the A's to take advantage by
Taking him with their next pick and then worrying about going under slot rather than going under slot and waiting for someone to fall.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Picks
All the sandwich picks are going to be about the same slot money, so it does not matter much which one the A’s use to pick the 4th or 5th round player. The important part is to set this up before the draft. If the A’s take a player at pick 11 and he wants $200,000 more than slot, there are only two ways this works. One is that the A’s tell the kid to pound sand. The second is to find money from the other draft picks. If the A’s do not sign a pick, the money goes away. So they will need to do something like this.
Another interesting thing about the new system is that after the 10 round, teams can spend up $99,999 on signing a player and not effect the cap system. Makes me think that the 11th and 12th round will be filled with kids getting way more money than kids drafted in 6-10 rounds
Not sure what you mean by "the money goes away".
My understanding of the “Signing Bonus Pool” is that it is a threshold limit telling teams how much of their own money they can spend on signing bonuses, with the specified penalties for exceeding that threshold.
I don’t interpret that as MLB actually giving them the money as an allowance to spend, which is what you seem to be suggesting here.
Have I interpreted this wrong?
The way I understand it, if a team fails to sign a pick, the total cap remains the same so that would just make more money available for the remaining picks in the top ten rounds.
I agree with you about the difference before and after round 10. If you really need to save money for guys higher in the draft, you might well want to achieve it by stiffing the guys in rounds 9 and 10, whereas you can still offer $100K to your guys in rounds 11 and 12.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Incorrect
If the A’s fail to sign their 3rd round pick (which was slotted as being worth $350,000) then their total allowed signing bonus pool drops by $350,000.
The monster at the end of this blog.
This is basically a non-issue AFAICT
Draft a 20th-round talent who’s a college senior, offer him five times the bonus he would have gotten if you hadn’t done that, and you just “signed” your pick for $5000.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Yep...
Are Sup picks protected, in case a team can’t sign their draftee, like 1st round picks?
The monster at the end of this blog.
Yes, at least assuming the system has not changed on this point
All picks (other than picks which are themselves the product of failing to sign a player) are protected through the third round.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I did some research
3rd round picks that don’t sign get re-couped the next year at the end of the 3rd round.
1st/1 Sup/2nd round picks get redos the next season 1 spot later. Meaning failure to sign the 33rd pick in the 2012 draft gives the A’s the 34th pick in the 2013 draft.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Yeah, that's right
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Also should have mentioned...
Teams get an extra year to make up for any non-signed picks in the the first 3 rounds.Make-up picks can now carry over up to 2 draft classes.
And the draft is reduced to 40 rounds.
Which makes me wonder… how do the new rules affect undrafted FA’s?
The monster at the end of this blog.
You mean can a player just not get drafted and then sign
for a $10M bonus?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 15, 2011 10:57 PM PST up reply actions
I'm 1000 percent certain that they were not dumb enough to leave a loophole that obvious
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I would certainly hope not
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 18, 2011 7:34 AM PST up reply actions
draft
If the A’s get a pick after their pick this year, next year if they do not sign the pick (33 for 34), Is it based on picks or is it based on rounds. So for example if the A’s pick 11th in the 2nd round this year, would they pick 12th next year or if the A’s with their 2nd round pick, that is pick pick 70 in this years draft would they get pick 71 next year? reason I ask this is that there are a ton of sandwich picks this year. with the change in the FA system next year there will be less. If the pick the A’s get for not signing a player just drops one it does not matter, but if the A’s get the 12th pick in the 2nd round in 2013 for not signing, that pick might be 10 picks better next year with half as many sandwich picks.
Sorry if I worded this question odd
Pretty sure it's the overall rank of the pick that matters
I.e. pick 63 this year would yield pick 64 next year.
I could be wrong.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Thanks, I wasn't aware of that.
Where did you hear about this? I don’t see it in MLB’s official summary anywhere.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Sorry
I do not recall and can’t find were it said that slot money goes away, if a team does not sign a player.
But as I wrote somewhere, MLB does not want teams signing their first pick for extra money and then not signing the next 9 picks. While teams and the league would not want it, Scott Boris would be all over the idea of having the A’s spend 8 million on the 11th pick in the draft. What does he care about the Kids drafted in rounds 2-10.
I found a column by Jonathan Mayo saying this.
It doesn’t name a source though. It sounds reasonable, and he’s generally reliable, so I believe it. Still, I like to know where things come from.
I wish they’d just release the full agreement already. I hate relying on journalists when I can read the document myself.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Hah
So it turns out that the reason that we haven’t seen the full text yet is that there isn’t one. It’s still being drafted.
No, you’re definitely not jumping to any conclusions, journalists…
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Hah indeed.
Maybe it’s deliberate. They summarize the memorandum of understanding to the public, then spend two weeks reading all the discussions on blogs like ours to hear clever fans discuss possible loopholes, then they can be sure those loopholes are plugged in the final draft.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Having actually negotiated collective bargaining agreements
I think this is what’s happening here, based on the experiences I’ve had with negotiations:
Most of the incumbent CBA is never brought up at the table. As negotiations go on, both sides are making proposals about all kinds of contract provisions — some of those proposals end up being reworked and finally agreed to. When a particular proposal is agreed to, each side’s spokesperson typically initials a sheet of paper with that propsal on it as a “tentative agreement”.
At the end of negotiations, both sides are usually withdrawing some of their proposals (often in tandem — that is, they’ll have an off-the-record conversation that goes something like, “Okay, we’ll withdraw our proposals A, B, and C if you withdraw your X, Y, and Z.”), narrowing down the outstanding issues. Eventually you get to a point where both sides are discussing wrapping everything up (this is usually off the record — that is, each side will contemplate moving off an official position at the table in concert with matched moves on other issues by the other side), and finally you get a single document with maybe 6 or 12 or more tentative agreements on it, that is the Final Tentative Agreement which both parties initial.
So at the end of the process you have each tentative that was signed along the way, and the final wrapup of the 6 or 12 or whatever outstanding issues. This is what was summarized on the MLBPA website.
That is what gets ratified by both parties.
After all that, you have to sit down and actually integrate all those changes/additions/deletions into the incumbent CBA, most of which just rolls over, unchanged.
All of which means that they could, if they wished, post the exact language of the tentative agreements on a website. That would answer pretty much all our questions.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
goes away
I read that if a team does not sign a pick, then their pool is reduced by the amount of that pick’s slot. The reason is so teams do not just sign their first two picks and not bother with rounds 3-10 while using the money saved in those rounds to go way over slot.
Hide
Another part of signing a sandwich pick a low money, is to not put that info out there until the A’s must. The agents (Boris) would just love the idea of making a team draft a bunch of junk in rounds 2-10 so that their agent in round one can get twice the money.
For those of you who read Moneyball….ok, like everyone….when the A’s signed Jeremy Brown and Steve Stanley, they both signed for about a third that other players around their picks signed for. The A’s wanted them, but they also wanted to save money on them and get the players to agree early. Pages 100-102 in Moneyball talkes about the early contract talk with those two players.
I can see the A’s and other teams with a few picks, going to players that they would like, that would likely go in that 4-6 area. We will give you top 4th round money, “but you say nothing and we sign you on the last day.” Thus keeping how low and how much saved until after the first few pick are all agreed to.
But aren't Jeremy Brown and Steve Stanley crappy?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 14, 2011 7:26 PM PST up reply actions
but a good read
Fun chapter to read.
But yes they ended up being crap.
My point was, that teams can get players to agree to deals before they draft the player. Thus setting up so that they can save money.
OK, but I don't really want the A's to save money. I want them to win games
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 14, 2011 8:11 PM PST up reply actions
Save money
…not save so much as re-alocate to a different player….and the winning may come in 3 or 4 years, if the A’s picked the right guys
It will be interesting to see whether any team does this successfully
i.e. better than the 2002 draft.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 14, 2011 8:30 PM PST up reply actions
This makes very little, if any, sense
Why not just draft the overslot player at the sandwich slot and the 4th rounder in the 4th round?
What possible advantage is there to doing it in the other order? All you’re doing is making it more possible for someone to “hate-draft” you (something that I suspect we will see more of under this system).
[For the non-Magic players in the audience, a hate-draft is where you take a player specifically to prevent other teams from drafting him, even though you cannot or will not make a serious effort to sign him.]
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Okay, on further reading, it looks like hate-drafting isn't a good idea because of the "lost slot money" issue
Still doesn’t make much sense though. Draft the good players first, and the mediocrities second, else you risk being “scooped” by another team.
In the Moneyball draft, notice that the first guys taken were the ones who were valued by other teams. The “only the A’s would want this dude” players were taken at the back end of that pile of extra draft picks.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
4th
Sorry, if this did not come across. Draft a 4th round type player with one of the sandwich picks and then draft another 4th round type player in the 4th round. In effect you get what was likely to be the best player that was going to be in the 4th round and save some slot money at the loss of one of the sandwich picks players.
The main reason for using the sandwich pick to do this is that the slot amount for each sandwich pick is a around a million dollars. The A’s still get a top 200 player with that pick
Where are you getting the slot amounts for each pick?
I’m obviously way behind on all this. The only good source I have is the MLB summary. Has the CBA itself been released yet?
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Ballpark
These are all ballpark numbers. In the back of BaseballAmerica Prospect Handbooks there is the three previous drafts top 200 and what they signed for and what the slot was. For example in 2010 the A’s signed Chad Lewis with the 125th pick (4th round) for $300,000 with a slot of $231,000.
While I do not think the new slot number have been released yet, one can get an idea of how fast MLB drops slot amounts over the first few rounds.
Won't we get penalized for going over slot by paying $2M for a sandwich?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 14, 2011 7:29 PM PST up reply actions
Penalized
A team only gets penalized if it goes over the amount set for the first ten rounds added together. So for example the A’s could go 2 million on the first sandwich pick but sign the next sandwich pick for $200,000. If MLB’s slot for the two picks is 1.4 million and .8 million, there is no penalty.
Really? How interesting. So you could pay your first rounder all ten rounds
of money (minus $90) and draft AN posters with the other nine rounds, signing them for $10 each?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 14, 2011 8:13 PM PST up reply actions
Correct.
But apparently if one of the AN posters refuses to accept $10 and goes to college instead, then the amount allotted to his slot is deducted from the team’s total cap.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
yes
I believe so….
but not sure AN poster help win games for the A’s
Unless it's Brad Ziegler
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 14, 2011 8:29 PM PST up reply actions
DRAFT SUSLU!!
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Huh?
Now you have two fourth-rounders instead of a sandwich pick and a fourth rounder.
That’s worse.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Why not skip said 3rd round draftee,
and actually get an even more decent player with our supplemental pick.
Maybe I’m dense, but I just don’t get this philosophy of “throw away an early pick in order to have more money to sign someone with a later pick”. The earlier pick is better, right?
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
I think the idea is to throw away a middle pick for an earlier pick
Basically saying, “Hey projected #8 draftee, we’ll spend X amount more money than everyone else on you if you reject the other teams and fall down to #11.” Obviously, “reject” meaning pulling the I-wanna-go-to-college/play-football/Gimme-mo’-$$ card.
I don’t really like it, as it seems that it would be taking a bigger risk on the two top picks. I think there would be more value in selecting a good 3rd pick (#45-50ish) than the marginal value upgrade that the top two picks would get. For example, I would rather have, say, a B+,B,B top 3 picks rather than A-,B+,C-.
Admittedly, I don’t promote/understand outside-the-box drafting techniques, and I already think some of these guys are getting ridiculous amounts of money. Furthermore, I believe the whole point of the new draft rules is to even the playing field and discourage “cheating the system.” I would love if the A’s can somehow maximize their drafts without incurring the penalties, but I have my doubts it will happen.
Grades
Given that it looks like the A’s will get picks 11, 36, 46, 52 and 63 or something like that. And if you grade those pick as B+, B, B, B, and C+. By underdrafting and spending the money on one or more of the other top picks, maybe you get an A-, B+, B+, C- and C+. Or maybe you have extra money to make make a risk pick in the 3-7 round and the A’s can offer the kid twice the cap amount.
The other issue, is that if a player does not sign, the cap amount for that pick comes off the amount of money a team can spend. So say for example pick # 11 says that they will not sign for less than cap amount plus $200,000. It will be very had to come up with that extra money. They only way, if the A’s draft the “best” player in each round, is to try to get each and every other pick from the 2nd through 10th round to take less. And try to pool enough to cover the $200,000. This will not be easy. All the agents will know the slot amounts, and be gunning for that amount. Picks from the 5th round on do not make much, so even if they take 30% less it might only be 10 grand. If the 11th pick does not sign, it will be very BAD! Also we do not want the A’s drafting the 15th best player at 11, so they are sure he will sign, that also would be BAD!
The other idea that might be big in this draft, is that there might be a ton of good players that fall, because teams do not think that they are signable with the slots as they progess though the draft. So in effect could the A’s get a B or B- player in the 5th round, because they can pay him 3rd round money and all the other team can only pay 5th round money?
With this new system, you have to think one or two teams will screw up and let players pass them by. Other years, the other teams could draft these players and just pay them well over slot. This year other teams just might not have the slot room to get this kid that drops. This year with the A’s having maybe 6 picks in the top 100, and more than they will likely have again in the near future. This may be a nice openning for them
This is starting to make sense to me.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 15, 2011 7:49 AM PST up reply actions
I think you overestimate how many players will fall.
First of all, although you’re right that agents will be gunning for the slot amount for every player, they also are aware that they can’t expect more than slot unless the team takes it out of someone else farther down or pays the MLB penalty for going over their designated cap. That will be a downward pressure on the signing price.
Second, the cap is not a hard limit. A team can always go over it; they just have to pay the penalty to the MLB. The penalty is rather steep, especially if they go over the cap by a lot, but the option is still there. In your example, if the A’s #11 pick insists on an extra $200,000 and the A’s can’t squeeze that extra out of any other pick in the top ten rounds, then the fallback response is to simply give in and give him the $200,000 and pay the MLB the $150,000 penalty.
The agent knows the team has this option and might push for it, but at the same time he knows that money beyond the cap costs the team 175% and the team will adjust accordingly. It will impact the market exactly like a tax, which is essentially what it is.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Pay
But I believe if a team goes over it’s cap number by more than 5%, then the team would pay the penalty and lose the following years first round pick. While $200,000 might not push the A’s over this year, with them have a larger cap do to the extra early picks. I would think in a year when a team has only it’s own picks, that 5% might be that $200,000.
I could see agents blackmailing teams over that 5%. and that future #1 pick
I was assuming the total for 10+ picks
would be well over $4 million.
In the new system, the total aggregate pool in the 10 slotted rounds will be $185 million.
That works out to a little over $6 million per team, so 5% of that would be $300,000.
(Also, what’s the highest total the A’s have ever spent on draft bonuses in a year? Have we ever even come close to $6 million?)
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Maybe in 2002 when they had a bizillion picks?
On another note, I completely didn’t realize that the A’s picked another right-handed Andrew Bailey in 2010:
35 1055 Andrew Bailey RHP Concord (W.Va.) W.Va.
He had 26 relief appearances in short-season this year. Maybe the master plan is to always have an Andrew Bailey in our pen.
Or to send that Andrew Bailey to Boston
"He's listed as day to day, but then again, aren't we all?" — Vin Scully
legal name
Maybe the A’s can change the legal name of a bunch of their AAA pitchers to Bailey and then trade one to Texas, and one to Boston and one to…….
Under this system, the players that "drop" will be the players for whom teams judge that the bonus demand is unusually out of sync with the talent level
In other words, the player you are likely to get for 3rd round money in the 5th round is a 5th (or perhaps, if you’re lucky, 4th) round talent who wants 3rd round money, not a 3rd round talent.
The current system is designed to incentivize teams not to sign such players at all. The intent is to strongarm players into accepting bonuses which are “in slot” with their talent level. (Why they didn’t just do hard slotting, I really don’t know. But regardless.)
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Current system is designed....
Every year there are players that drop in the draft for a number of reasons. Let us go back to the year 2005, when the A’s drafted Justin Smoak in the 16th round. As I recall there was a lot of talk on AN about why he did not sign. I do not want to relive that, but unlike other year when a “Yankees” could draft draft a guy at pick 145 and pay him $1,450,000 to sign (about 10 x the slot number) this year will make that very hard.
As you say, “why they didn’t just do a hard slotting”, there will likely be opportunities for teams that can find a way to save money.
I expect Boris or another agent to push the envelope
"If the 11th pick does not sign, it will be very BAD!"
I don’t think that’s true. If the 11th pick doesn’t sign doesn’t that just mean that the A’s get the 12th pick next year?
Also what would stop your theoretical 4th rounder that you pick with the suppl. pick from trying to extort more money the day after the draft? You agree ahead of time that you will pay 120% of the fourth round slot, but after the draft he “changes his mind” and now wants 90% of the suppl. slot. If you say no then he goes to college and probably gets picked in the fourth round next year. No big loss. He might as well try for a bigger payday, right?
In he meantime, you either pay him or lose the slot money. Either way you don’t have the extra money you thought you did.
12th
Sure, the A’s can put off signing that pick, and just get the 12th pick the next year. I do not think the if the A’s can not sign the 12th they would get a 13th in 2014. They would have less barganning power over the 12th pick because of that. Likely, the A’s want to sign the 11th pick and get going on the kids development.
The “changes his mind” factor is always there. Not much the A’s can do about it. Likely it would reflect badly on the agent and the A’s can put future pressure on him. Also, if this kid thinks he is getting drafted in the 4th, and his agent is telling him, that he will get drafted in the 4th, he is likely happy to get drafted in the 1st (sandwich) and make a little more in his bonus. He also looks good to the A’s, as a team player and is likely to last longer in the organization, if he was the sandwich pick and a stand up guy.
But he's still a 4th round talent and not likely to amount to much anyway, no?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 16, 2011 8:46 AM PST up reply actions
I've read several places
that this is a weak draft. The 12th pick next year is probably worth more talentwise than the 11th pick this year and it will be had at the same slot price as this year’s (or possibly a small bump for inflation). Paying the same price for better talent is something the team shouldn’t consider a disadvantage.
I don’t think too many agents are worried about what reflects badly on them. They try to get the most money they can for their client (and for their commission), that’s their job.
If being a nice guy was important to the organization then Breslow wouldn’t have just been traded away.
Agents
Sure agents try to get the most money they can, but if it gets around that the agent does not keep his word, the agent will likely sometime in the future get a payback by a team. In this case, if a play says he will sign for an amount and then “changes his mind”. If he was 4th round updrafted as a sandwich, likely the A’s tell the kid to “go pound sand”. As you said, the can just redaft the following year on slot lower. The kid has to wait a year, and have the rep of a kid that is not as good as his word. While the kid likely will not get drafted by the A’s (not sure if they can redraft him), the agent is going to have to work with the A’s again. Payback might cost the agent much more than hiscut of what a 4th round signing bonus.
As for week draft, it might be a good idea to not sign some picks, and get better player with the pick next year. At the very least, holding it over the agent and the player, to keep down a bonus.
As for team player and nice guy, if this player is not a sure thing, he likely want the team to think well of him. I would think that if it came down to two players that are the same skill wise, that could be cut, a team is more likely to keep the kid that helped them out in the past.
Agents don't collect commissions on draft bonuses
Keep in mind, they cannot technically be “hired” until after a player turns pro. Hiring an agent instantly voids your amateur status in any sport for NCAA purposes.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Really? I didn't know that they didn't get commissions on draft bonuses
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 18, 2011 7:32 AM PST up reply actions
This, basically
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Indians
If the Indians were to make a late push for Willingham, could we potentially get the #14 pick in the draft?
15
I think the first 15 are protected, just like past seasons.
The only hope is the the Red Sox or Blue Jays get back in it.
Maybe as part of the Gio trade to the Jays, Beane tells them, if they sign Willingham, he will give them half a million.
Twinkitown!
Here’s a good list on draft order from Twinkietown:
http://www.twinkietown.com/2011/12/14/2637484/updated-2012-mlb-rule-4-draft-order-december-14th
By this list (which is obviously still provisional as we wait to see where certain free agents go), Oakland has picks at:
11
33
47
64
75
That’s not going to get a lot of elite talent in a weak draft. With the new rules I almost wouldn’t worry about drafting in the lower rounds and try to spend the vast majority of our money on those first five picks.
Either they know something I don't or vice versa.
They’re putting the sandwich picks in a different order. For example, they list our sandwich pick for Wilingham before the Cardinals’ pick for Pujols. I thought sandwich picks went in Elias order.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Oops. I just looked it up.
They’re right and I’m wrong. Sandwich picks go in reverse-standing order, not Elias order. (Not sure yet how this affects the modified A’s and modified B’s. Are they grouped with regular A’s and B’s or separately?)
This will jiggle the picks around a little. I’ll need to edit the post, but no time right now.
(Or maybe we should all just switch to the Twinkitown list now instead….)
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
BA
Baseball America’s web also has a list in the askBA…..not sure if is different
They say the A's have Picks #11 and 41, not 33
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 15, 2011 12:24 PM PST up reply actions
11 is their regular draft spot, isn't it?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Yep. And they don't have the sandwich pick for Willingham down, yet, so that needs updating.
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Dec 15, 2011 12:51 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, I just took another look at his list
and it’s better than mine. I would use that one as a reference instead.
The one thing to note is that his “TBD” sections he lists all the sandwich picks for players who haven’t signed yet in a clump at the end of the section, when in fact if they happen they’ll be up with the others of the type group.
Also, he’s assuming compensation picks for modified Type A’s get bumped to the second round only for 1-10 rather than 1-15, which I believe is incorrect.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
still researching this iglew...
will let you know as soon as i do.
If only I had shaved with the Gillette fusion ProGlide today.
I could have used that microcomb.
Thanks for putting this together iglew! So we get the pick right before the Twins in the 2nd round? That’s not too bad.
It looks like the 2011 slot recommendations were equal to those of 2010
Based on those recommendations, and using the TwinkieTown draft order, I can estimate the A’s draft pool allotment through the first 5 rounds.
#11: 1.791 M
#33: 936,000
#47: 739,800
#64: 570,600
#75: 485,100
#106: 299,700
#137: 195,300
#168: 144,900
Total through 5th Round:
$5,162,400
Again, that’s using last year’s recommendations. 2012 could be different.
The monster at the end of this blog.
That wouldn't nab a Buster...
Giants paid $6.2 million just for Buster Posey.
But I’m willing to throw our entire budget to get one elite bat. We haven’t managed to draft one of those in a very long time.
Wasn't Trevor Cahill a 2nd round pick when Beane drafted him?
"You're early, but hang around; we'll have a fight for you sooner or later."
-John "Blue Moon" Odom
Is there any word on the actual quality of this year's draft class? Strong or weak?
I tend to not pay attention to it until a couple weeks before when teams actually start being linked to players.
College class looks thin
HS class has potential.
Who ranks where will change in the next few months.
The monster at the end of this blog.
weak or strong
The other question to ask after, if the draft is weak or strong, is if the new system will be put to the test with less kids signing. If a HS kid says he will not sign for under $500,000, he better not get picked after the 3rd round starts. In other years, teams and agents play a game of chichen on the last day the player can sign. This year team may just hand the kid a number and say that is it, we do not have a dime left. So what % will just not sign.
weak
Baseball America had, “After a banner year for college talent in 2011, next year’s crop has more question marks”…..so I am think weak.
But if the top 150 picks are ok, at least the A’s get 7 of those.
Thinner
It’s much less deep than last year, and has no consensus elite talent like Strasburg, Harper, Rendon.
Some pitchers that will make the top five this year wouldn’t have made the top 15 last year.
Wasn't Rendon the 6th guy picked?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 15, 2011 10:56 PM PST up reply actions
So Yoenis Cespedes is going for Domincan residency to get into the MLB
What stops American kids from establishing residency elsewhere and then entering as international free agents?
Their U.S. citizenship.
The essence of the draft is an agreement among the teams to respect draft rights. That is, as an MLB team, you agree that you won’t sign a contract with a player who was drafted by some other team. This is in the CBA, and players and teams agree to abide by it. (But only MLB teams, so that’s why a player who is drafted in the MLB draft can say no to the MLB and go play in Japan or for an Independent League team instead.)
The CBA rules for the draft specify that it covers all residents of Canada, the United States, and U.S. territories. (An earlier version excluded Canada and Puerto Rico, which is why neither Matt Stairs nor Pudge Rodriguez was drafted.)
Cespedes is establishing residency in the D.R. for an entirely different reason. Since the 1960s, the United States government has enforced some form of trade embargo against Cuba, with the result that there are significant legal restrictions on American companies doing business with Cubans. Accordingly, a Cuban player cannot be signed by MLB until he has established residency in some other country. A few establish residency in the United States; most establish residency in some other foreign country, whence they become international free agents.
I suppose it’s possible that if a young American baseball player were to renounce his United States citizenship and become a citizen of some other country, he could thereby exclude himself from the draft. But while many Cubans are eager to defect, for an American to want to defect is improbable, to say the least.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Interesting, thanks.
Lots of good info there. I had assumed that Cuban players established residency elsewhere solely to avoid the draft. I’m actually surprised that some American kid hasn’t tried this given the amount of money at stake. Also, I’ve tried to imagine many times how bittersweet it must be for some kids to get to live their baseball dreams, but be forced to give up any control of where they live for 10 years of their life (minors + service time to free agency).
by thelincolndude on Dec 20, 2011 7:28 AM PST up reply actions
I'm not positive that "defecting" from America would even work.
The language about the draft says U.S. resident. Now if his parents really did leave the country when he was 10, then sure. But if an 18-year-old top prospect fresh out of high school then goes off and rents an apartment in Mexico just to dodge the MLB draft, I wouldn’t be surprised if MLB sees that a transparent gesture and declares him draft-eligible anyway.
It also could adversely affect him with the fans.
As for giving up control of where they live, to a large extent that happens to American minor leaguers, too, who can get bounced all around the country. Many people travel to foreign lands for their career, and some enjoy it. I imagine that’s true with baseball players, too: some enjoy the travel and some don’t. Whether one is the sort who welcomes the travel is one more ingredient that goes into who has the drive for an MLB career and who doesn’t, I suppose. Also, many of the Latin players go home and play in the winter leagues during the off-season.
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
I was actually specifically talking about American players
They have almost no control over where they’ll spend the first 10 years of their baseball careers (and that’s assuming they’re lucky enough to have an MLB career). At least Latin American players can choose the franchise they sign with. They’re still subject to trades and years of bouncing between minor league affiliates, but at least initially they have a choice.
It’s just way, way different in the other major sports. With the NBA or NFL you’re locked in for, what, 4 years?
by thelincolndude on Dec 20, 2011 9:31 PM PST up reply actions
NBA & NFL
Both the NFL and the NBA do not have minor leagues. And there is something to be said about the risk for a MLB team drafting a player. They go 40 or 50 rounds, while to NFL goes 7 and the NBA is 2 rounds. While all are major sports, they are very different in many ways.
NBA has D-League right?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
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