FanPost

2011 Athletics, Against The Odds

Here is a look at how the Athletics 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Athletics games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4861 which translates to an expected win total of 78.74 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Athletics game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5083 or 82.35 wins.  The Athletics actually went 74-88 on the season.  Vegas and especially my simulator failed to pick up in time on how bad the Athletics were this year.  Probably a combination of the offense and defense being overrated.  Either way, just a rather disappointing season.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Athletics were the largest favorite to win.

Rank Date Away SP Home SP Away Home Fave Fave Win Perc OAK Win Perc Sim OAK Win Perc Winning Team Away Runs Home Runs Total Runs
1 05-05-11 Jeanmar Gomez Brett Anderson CLE OAK OAK 62.825 62.825 70.257 CLE 4 3 7
2 04-02-11 Jason Vargas Brett Anderson SEA OAK OAK 62.687 62.687 59.076 SEA 5 2 7
3 06-28-2011 Javier Vazquez Gio Gonzalez FLA OAK OAK 62.617 62.617 68.042 OAK 0 1 1
4 05-19-2011 Nick Blackburn Tyson Ross MIN OAK OAK 62.477 62.477 65.354 MIN 11 1 12
5 09-06-11 Danny Duffy Gio Gonzalez KC OAK OAK 62.049 62.049 65.198 KC 7 4 11
6 05-18-2011 Carl Pavano Brandon McCarthy MIN OAK OAK 61.686 61.686 68.807 MIN 4 3 7
7 08-15-2011 Tommy Hunter Gio Gonzalez BAL OAK OAK 61.538 61.538 59.596 BAL 6 2 8
8 09-04-11 Blake Beavan Trevor Cahill SEA OAK OAK 61.464 61.464 64.518 OAK 5 8 13
9 06-14-2011 Danny Duffy Josh Outman KC OAK OAK 61.464 61.464 60.714 KC 7 4 11
10 05-27-2011 Chris Tillman Gio Gonzalez BAL OAK OAK 61.315 61.315 61.155 OAK 2 6 8
11 04-03-11 Doug Fister Gio Gonzalez SEA OAK OAK 60.784 60.784 60.025 OAK 1 7 8
12 04-17-2011 Brad Penny Trevor Cahill DET OAK OAK 60.239 60.239 59.972 OAK 1 5 6
13 05-15-2011 Mark Buehrle Trevor Cahill CHA OAK OAK 60.159 60.159 60.23 CHA 4 3 7
14 06-30-2011 Chris Volstad Trevor Cahill FLA OAK OAK 60.08 60.08 64.729 FLA 5 4 9
15 08-17-2011 Alfredo Simon Brandon McCarthy BAL OAK OAK 59.92 59.92 59.63 OAK 5 6 11
16 05-17-2011 Tyler Chatwood Gio Gonzalez LAA OAK OAK 59.677 59.677 65.527 OAK 0 14 14
17 09-28-2011 Gio Gonzalez Anthony Vasquez OAK SEA OAK 59.596 59.596 57.374 OAK 2 0 2
18 08-20-2011 Henderson Alvarez Gio Gonzalez TOR OAK OAK 58.592 58.592 62.912 OAK 1 5 6
19 09-17-2011 Rick Porcello Gio Gonzalez DET OAK OAK 58.592 58.592 53.99 OAK 3 5 8
20 04-14-2011 Phil Coke Gio Gonzalez DET OAK OAK 58.506 58.506 58.951 DET 3 0 3
21 04-30-2011 Colby Lewis Brett Anderson TEX OAK OAK 58.506 58.506 66.001 TEX 11 2 13
22 05-04-11 Josh Tomlin Trevor Cahill CLE OAK OAK 58.42 58.42 64.253 OAK 1 3 4
23 06-16-2011 Jeff Francis Gio Gonzalez KC OAK OAK 58.071 58.071 61.603 OAK 4 8 12
24 09-12-11 Joel Pineiro Gio Gonzalez LAA OAK OAK 57.717 57.717 62.638 OAK 3 6 9
25 09-02-11 Jason Vargas Guillermo Moscoso SEA OAK OAK 57.537 57.537 58.478 OAK 2 9 11
26 08-03-11 Gio Gonzalez Charles Furbush OAK SEA OAK 57.537 57.537 56.584 SEA 4 7 11
27 06-15-2011 Luke Hochevar Josh Outman KC OAK OAK 57.537 57.537 61.269 OAK 2 1 3
28 09-07-11 Bruce Chen Guillermo Moscoso KC OAK OAK 57.356 57.356 60.251 OAK 0 7 7
29 05-28-2011 Brad Bergesen Josh Outman BAL OAK OAK 57.173 57.173 52.867 OAK 2 4 6
30 07-29-2011 Francisco Liriano Gio Gonzalez MIN OAK OAK 57.173 57.173 55.862 MIN 9 5 14
31 08-16-2011 Brian Matusz Guillermo Moscoso BAL OAK OAK 57.173 57.173 53.372 OAK 3 4 7
32 07-31-2011 Carl Pavano Brandon McCarthy MIN OAK OAK 56.989 56.989 57.101 OAK 3 7 10
33 07-17-2011 Joel Pineiro Gio Gonzalez LAA OAK OAK 56.71 56.71 57.449 OAK 1 9 10
34 09-03-11 Michael Pineda Brandon McCarthy SEA OAK OAK 56.522 56.522 61.102 OAK 0 3 3
35 05-16-2011 Joel Pineiro Brett Anderson LAA OAK OAK 56.427 56.427 67.624 OAK 4 5 9
36 04-15-2011 Rick Porcello Brandon McCarthy DET OAK OAK 56.236 56.236 51.943 DET 8 4 12
37 07-30-2011 Nick Blackburn Guillermo Moscoso MIN OAK OAK 55.85 55.85 51.58 OAK 3 8 11
38 06-29-2011 Ricky Nolasco Guillermo Moscoso FLA OAK OAK 55.654 55.654 53.747 FLA 3 0 3
39 05-31-2011 Freddy Garcia Brett Anderson NYA OAK OAK 55.457 55.457 61.601 NYA 10 3 13
40 04-24-2011 Brett Anderson Doug Fister OAK SEA OAK 55.056 55.056 53.994 OAK 5 2 7
41 07-02-11 Joe Saunders Josh Outman ARI OAK OAK 54.853 54.853 58.519 ARI 4 2 6
42 07-28-2011 Wade Davis Rich Harden TB OAK OAK 54.649 54.649 54.146 TB 10 8 18
43 09-26-2011 Brandon McCarthy Jason Vargas OAK SEA OAK 54.233 54.233 53.8 SEA 2 4 6
44 07-06-11 Jason Vargas Guillermo Moscoso SEA OAK OAK 54.023 54.023 50.564 OAK 0 2 2
45 06-01-11 A.J. Burnett Gio Gonzalez NYA OAK OAK 53.38 53.38 54.101 NYA 4 2 6
46 04-26-2011 Brandon McCarthy Tyler Chatwood OAK LAA OAK 53.38 53.38 57.695 LAA 3 8 11
47 08-21-2011 Luis Perez Guillermo Moscoso TOR OAK OAK 53.38 53.38 55.123 TOR 1 0 1
48 09-13-2011 Jerome Williams Guillermo Moscoso LAA OAK OAK 53.38 53.38 59.662 LAA 6 3 9
49 05-01-11 Matt Harrison Gio Gonzalez TEX OAK OAK 53.271 53.271 57.321 OAK 2 7 9
50 05-03-11 Fausto Carmona Tyson Ross CLE OAK OAK 53.271 53.271 55.762 CLE 4 1 5
51 07-03-11 Ian Kennedy Gio Gonzalez ARI OAK OAK 53.162 53.162 58.057 OAK 2 7 9
52 05-13-2011 Phil Humber Brandon McCarthy CHA OAK OAK 53.162 53.162 64.903 CHA 4 3 7
53 09-05-11 Felipe Paulino Rich Harden KC OAK OAK 52.941 52.941 52.924 KC 11 6 17
54 08-01-11 Trevor Cahill Blake Beavan OAK SEA OAK 52.83 52.83 51.22 SEA 4 8 12
55 05-06-11 Gio Gonzalez Sean O'Sullivan OAK KC OAK 52.719 52.719 60.713 OAK 3 2 5
56 04-23-2011 Trevor Cahill Jason Vargas OAK SEA OAK 52.719 52.719 48.882 OAK 9 1 10
57 04-19-2011 John Lackey Brett Anderson BOS OAK OAK 52.494 52.494 62.648 OAK 0 5 5
58 05-08-11 Tyson Ross Jeff Francis OAK KC OAK 52.381 52.381 54.269 OAK 5 2 7
59 05-29-2011 Zach Britton Guillermo Moscoso BAL OAK OAK 52.038 52.038 51.117 OAK 4 6 10
60 05-02-11 Derek Holland Brandon McCarthy TEX OAK OAK 51.807 51.807 54.519 OAK 4 5 9
61 04-01-11 Felx Hernandez Trevor Cahill SEA OAK OAK 51.691 51.691 53.06 SEA 6 2 8
62 05-20-2011 Trevor Cahill Ryan Vogelsong OAK SF OAK 51.574 51.574 47.176 SF 1 2 3
63 05-30-2011 Bartolo Colon Trevor Cahill NYA OAK OAK 51.456 51.456 50.27 NYA 5 0 5
64 07-04-11 Michael Pineda Brandon McCarthy SEA OAK OAK 51.22 51.22 50.777 SEA 2 1 3
65 05-07-11 Brandon McCarthy Luke Hochevar OAK KC OAK 51.22 51.22 61.77 KC 3 4 7
66 04-29-2011 C.J. Wilson Trevor Cahill TEX OAK OAK 51.1 51.1 48.306 OAK 1 3 4
67 05-14-2011 Gavin Floyd Tyson Ross CHA OAK OAK 51.1 51.1 57.887 OAK 2 6 8
68 08-19-2011 Brett Cecil Rich Harden TOR OAK OAK 51.1 51.1 52.734 OAK 0 2 2
69 04-20-2011 Clay Buchholz Gio Gonzalez BOS OAK OAK 50.98 50.98 60.377 BOS 5 3 8
70 06-07-11 Guillermo Moscoso Chris Jakubauskas OAK BAL OAK 50.86 50.86 47.139 BAL 0 4 4
71 08-10-11 Gio Gonzalez Henderson Alvarez OAK TOR OAK 50.86 50.86 52.68 TOR 4 8 12
72 05-26-2011 Brett Anderson Joel Pineiro OAK LAA OAK 50.739 50.739 59.59 OAK 4 3 7
73 06-19-2011 Matt Cain Trevor Cahill SF OAK OAK 50.739 50.739 56.792 OAK 1 2 3
74 05-25-2011 Trevor Cahill Ervin Santana OAK LAA OAK 50.249 50.249 53.117 LAA 1 4 5
75 06-18-2011 Jonathan Sanchez Guillermo Moscoso SF OAK OAK 50 50 53.477 OAK 2 4 6
76 09-27-2011 Trevor Cahill Blake Beavan OAK SEA SEA 50.249 49.751 51.231 OAK 7 0 7
77 07-05-11 Felx Hernandez Trevor Cahill SEA OAK SEA 50.617 49.383 51.594 SEA 4 2 6
78 07-16-2011 Ervin Santana Rich Harden LAA OAK LAA 50.617 49.383 51.09 OAK 3 4 7
79 07-01-11 Josh Collmenter Rich Harden ARI OAK ARI 50.739 49.261 52.656 OAK 4 5 9
80 04-09-11 Gio Gonzalez Nick Blackburn OAK MIN MIN 50.739 49.261 52.348 OAK 1 0 1
81 09-01-11 Gio Gonzalez Fausto Carmona OAK CLE CLE 50.86 49.14 50.096 OAK 7 0 7
82 04-08-11 Brett Anderson Carl Pavano OAK MIN MIN 50.98 49.02 53.981 MIN 1 2 3
83 06-06-11 Gio Gonzalez Brian Matusz OAK BAL BAL 51.338 48.662 52.534 BAL 4 2 6
84 06-09-11 Trevor Cahill Mark Buehrle OAK CHA CHA 51.338 48.662 45.651 CHA 4 9 13
85 04-13-2011 Brett Anderson John Danks OAK CHA CHA 51.574 48.426 54.641 OAK 7 4 11
86 06-22-2011 Gio Gonzalez R.A. Dickey OAK NYN NYN 51.807 48.193 50.961 NYN 2 3 5
87 08-13-2011 Colby Lewis Trevor Cahill TEX OAK TEX 51.807 48.193 51.792 TEX 7 1 8
88 05-10-11 Brett Anderson Colby Lewis OAK TEX TEX 51.923 48.077 59.365 TEX 7 2 9
89 09-15-2011 Max Scherzer Brandon McCarthy DET OAK DET 51.923 48.077 55.168 OAK 1 6 7
90 06-11-11 Gio Gonzalez John Danks OAK CHA CHA 52.153 47.847 52.022 CHA 2 3 5
91 05-22-2011 Gio Gonzalez Jonathan Sanchez OAK SF SF 52.267 47.733 43.879 SF 4 5 9
92 07-16-2011 Jered Weaver Trevor Cahill LAA OAK LAA 52.719 47.281 48.703 LAA 4 2 6
93 08-18-2011 Ricky Romero Trevor Cahill TOR OAK TOR 52.719 47.281 54.944 TOR 7 0 7
94 04-06-11 Tyson Ross Jesse Litsch OAK TOR TOR 52.83 47.17 54.385 TOR 3 5 8
95 08-30-2011 Trevor Cahill Jeanmar Gomez OAK CLE CLE 52.941 47.059 47.06 CLE 2 6 8
96 07-25-2011 Jeremy Hellickson Guillermo Moscoso TB OAK TB 53.38 46.62 50.641 OAK 5 7 12
97 09-16-2011 Doug Fister Trevor Cahill DET OAK DET 53.38 46.62 46.716 DET 3 1 4
98 04-05-11 Dallas Braden Jo-Jo Reyes OAK TOR TOR 53.488 46.512 51.814 TOR 6 7 13
99 04-07-11 Trevor Cahill Ricky Romero OAK TOR TOR 53.488 46.512 50.168 OAK 2 1 3
100 04-11-11 Dallas Braden Mark Buehrle OAK CHA CHA 53.488 46.512 49.068 OAK 2 1 3
101 07-15-2011 Dan Haren Brandon McCarthy LAA OAK LAA 53.596 46.404 53.517 OAK 3 5 8
102 09-25-2011 Rich Harden Joel Pineiro OAK LAA LAA 53.704 46.296 44.908 OAK 6 5 11
103 04-16-2011 Justin Verlander Dallas Braden DET OAK DET 53.811 46.189 49.84 OAK 2 6 8
104 07-27-2011 James Shields Trevor Cahill TB OAK TB 53.917 46.083 49.845 OAK 4 13 17
105 04-12-11 Trevor Cahill Edwin Jackson OAK CHA CHA 54.023 45.977 49.878 CHA 5 6 11
106 05-09-11 Trevor Cahill C.J. Wilson OAK TEX TEX 54.233 45.767 41.112 OAK 7 2 9
107 08-29-2011 Brandon McCarthy David Huff OAK CLE CLE 54.442 45.558 46.731 CLE 1 2 3
108 07-20-2011 Brandon McCarthy Duane Below OAK DET DET 54.649 45.351 45.254 OAK 7 5 12
109 04-10-11 Brandon McCarthy Scott Baker OAK MIN MIN 54.853 45.147 46.236 OAK 5 3 8
110 08-14-2011 Matt Harrison Rich Harden TEX OAK TEX 54.853 45.147 44.316 TEX 7 6 13
111 08-12-11 C.J. Wilson Brandon McCarthy TEX OAK TEX 55.056 44.944 45.792 TEX 9 1 10
112 06-05-11 Brett Anderson John Lackey OAK BOS BOS 55.257 44.743 56.287 BOS 3 6 9
113 04-22-2011 Tyson Ross Michael Pineda OAK SEA SEA 55.457 44.543 46.96 SEA 0 4 4
114 07-07-11 Rich Harden Derek Holland OAK TEX TEX 55.654 44.346 36.526 TEX 0 6 6
115 08-11-11 Guillermo Moscoso Brad Mills OAK TOR TOR 56.616 43.384 44.072 OAK 10 3 13
116 06-23-2011 Graham Godfrey Chris Capuano OAK NYN NYN 56.616 43.384 42.019 NYN 1 4 5
117 08-31-2011 Rich Harden Ubaldo Jimenez OAK CLE CLE 56.616 43.384 38.286 CLE 3 4 7
118 07-26-2011 David Price Brandon McCarthy TB OAK TB 56.989 43.011 51.217 OAK 1 6 7
119 06-08-11 Josh Outman Zach Britton OAK BAL BAL 57.173 42.827 42.918 BAL 2 3 5
120 06-21-2011 Josh Outman Dillon Gee OAK NYN NYN 57.173 42.827 42.185 OAK 7 3 10
121 07-19-2011 Guillermo Moscoso Rick Porcello OAK DET DET 57.173 42.827 38.698 DET 3 8 11
122 09-24-2011 Guillermo Moscoso Jerome Williams OAK LAA LAA 57.447 42.553 48.12 LAA 2 4 6
123 08-09-11 Rich Harden Brett Cecil OAK TOR TOR 57.537 42.463 42.332 OAK 4 1 5
124 06-10-11 Graham Godfrey Edwin Jackson OAK CHA CHA 57.537 42.463 41.737 OAK 7 5 12
125 06-12-11 Guillermo Moscoso Phil Humber OAK CHA CHA 57.627 42.373 39.83 CHA 4 5 9
126 04-21-2011 Brandon McCarthy Felx Hernandez OAK SEA SEA 57.717 42.283 44.832 SEA 0 1 1
127 09-22-2011 Colby Lewis Trevor Cahill TEX OAK TEX 57.806 42.194 48.39 OAK 3 4 7
128 07-10-11 Trevor Cahill Matt Harrison OAK TEX TEX 58.159 41.841 44.792 TEX 0 2 2
129 05-21-2011 Brett Anderson Tim Lincecum OAK SF SF 58.159 41.841 46.486 SF 0 3 3
130 06-17-2011 Tim Lincecum Graham Godfrey SF OAK SF 58.506 41.494 51.537 OAK 2 5 7
131 09-14-2011 Jered Weaver Rich Harden LAA OAK LAA 58.763 41.237 47.682 LAA 4 1 5
132 04-25-2011 Gio Gonzalez Jered Weaver OAK LAA LAA 58.932 41.068 42.55 LAA 0 5 5
133 08-26-2011 Gio Gonzalez Tim Wakefield OAK BOS BOS 59.1 40.9 45.894 OAK 15 5 20
134 08-06-11 Brandon McCarthy Alex Cobb OAK TB TB 59.432 40.568 46.53 OAK 8 0 8
135 09-20-2011 Derek Holland Rich Harden TEX OAK TEX 59.759 40.241 40.97 TEX 7 2 9
136 08-02-11 Rich Harden Felx Hernandez OAK SEA SEA 60.08 39.92 41.235 SEA 2 4 6
137 07-08-11 Gio Gonzalez C.J. Wilson OAK TEX TEX 60.239 39.761 37.477 TEX 5 8 13
138 06-24-2011 Guillermo Moscoso Vance Worley OAK PHI PHI 60.239 39.761 39.652 PHI 0 1 1
139 07-22-2011 Trevor Cahill Phil Hughes OAK NYA NYA 61.014 38.986 38.142 NYA 7 17 24
140 07-24-2011 Gio Gonzalez Bartolo Colon OAK NYA NYA 61.538 38.462 41.125 NYA 5 7 12
141 04-27-2011 Tyson Ross Dan Haren OAK LAA LAA 61.686 38.314 40.356 OAK 2 1 3
142 09-09-11 Brandon McCarthy Colby Lewis OAK TEX TEX 61.905 38.095 42.431 TEX 4 13 17
143 09-21-2011 C.J. Wilson Brandon McCarthy TEX OAK TEX 62.121 37.879 43.46 TEX 3 2 5
144 08-05-11 Guillermo Moscoso Jeff Niemann OAK TB TB 62.193 37.807 37.616 TB 4 8 12
145 07-09-11 Brandon McCarthy Colby Lewis OAK TEX TEX 62.617 37.383 51.227 TEX 6 7 13
146 09-18-2011 Justin Verlander Guillermo Moscoso DET OAK DET 62.617 37.383 42.76 DET 3 0 3
147 08-07-11 Trevor Cahill David Price OAK TB TB 62.687 37.313 40.956 OAK 5 4 9
148 09-10-11 Trevor Cahill Alexi Ogando OAK TEX TEX 62.756 37.244 36.613 OAK 8 7 15
149 09-23-2011 Gio Gonzalez Jered Weaver OAK LAA LAA 63.57 36.43 44.87 OAK 3 1 4
150 07-23-2011 Rich Harden A.J. Burnett OAK NYA NYA 63.834 36.166 35.504 OAK 4 3 7
151 06-03-11 Josh Outman Clay Buchholz OAK BOS BOS 64.476 35.524 41.067 BOS 6 8 14
152 06-04-11 Trevor Cahill Josh Beckett OAK BOS BOS 64.476 35.524 39.091 BOS 8 9 17
153 06-25-2011 Trevor Cahill Cole Hamels OAK PHI PHI 64.476 35.524 33.255 OAK 4 1 5
154 05-23-2011 Josh Outman Jered Weaver OAK LAA LAA 64.851 35.149 40.082 LAA 1 4 5
155 05-24-2011 Guillermo Moscoso Dan Haren OAK LAA LAA 65.398 34.602 39.205 OAK 6 1 7
156 08-23-2011 Brandon McCarthy Bartolo Colon OAK NYA NYA 65.812 34.188 38.004 OAK 6 5 11
157 09-11-11 Rich Harden C.J. Wilson OAK TEX TEX 66.102 33.898 29.677 TEX 1 8 9
158 08-25-2011 Rich Harden Phil Hughes OAK NYA NYA 66.667 33.333 33.071 NYA 9 22 31
159 06-26-2011 Josh Outman Roy Halladay OAK PHI PHI 67.532 32.468 32.269 PHI 1 3 4
160 08-24-2011 Trevor Cahill C.C. Sabathia OAK NYA NYA 70.674 29.326 28.883 OAK 6 4 10
161 08-27-2011 Graham Godfrey Erik Bedard OAK BOS BOS 71.056 28.944 28.904 BOS 0 4 4
162 08-27-2011 Guillermo Moscoso Jon Lester OAK BOS BOS 71.631 28.369 31.057 BOS 3 9 12
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