To trade Bailey

Ever since Taj Adib did his interesting FanPost on breaking up the current A's roster, I have been thinking about Bailey's value.  Since the post came up, it looks as if the Phillies are about to sign Papelbon. I thought it would be interest to see people's thoughts.

I thought it was interesting that the Phillies would pay for 4 years at 50 million and lose their first round pick.  I assume they will still offer Madson arbitration and thus get back two picks, so that is a possitive. But just say that the A's had traded Bailey to the Phillies instead.  The Phillies would get the two picks for Madson, but not lose their own pick.  Bailey is likely to get 18 million over the next three years, or about an $18 million savings over what they are paying Papelbon.  18 million might be more than half of what they would need to sign a Rollins or sign one of the type B outfields DeJesus or Kubal or maybe Sizemore if Cleveland does not offer Arbitration. Not going to happen but would they trade Domonic Brown to save that much money and kepp their own pick (pick 30)?

So taking this model and looking at other teams like the Jays and the Red Sox.  So for example the Jays are thinking about Madson they would have to give up the 17th pick in the first round next year and still pay him.  Say Madson would can get 30 million over 3 years,  What is Bailey worth to the Jays at 12 million saved an not giving up pick 17? Is Anthony Gose too much for Bailey or not enough, or if the A's threw in a Rosales do they get a 2nd prospect.  I am not up on prospect value. But if I am the Jays I would much rather have Bailey than Madsen.

One can look at the Red Sox in the same vain.  If they sign a Type A, they lose pick 22 (I think I am getting the picks correct).  Would they be interest in a Bailey and Fuentes offer.  Fix their pen at money of Madson. Maybe a Kalish or a Reddick and some nice A ball pitchers? Enough?

While there are other closers on the market and some are likely not to be offered arbitration, does a team want 35+ year old closers like Cordero (age 36) or Nathan (age 37).  And while there maybe no comp pick, the relievers are not that cheap. They are likely asking more that what Bailey will make.

It will be interest to see what the A's do with Bailey over the winter, .......if they do anything.

Thanks for the time