Arizona Fall League: One Month In

by danmerqury on Nov 1, 2011 7:00 AM PDT

Major League Baseball is done for the time being, so why not check in with one of the biggest offseason leagues in organized baseball, the Arizona Fall League?

A quick refresher: The Arizona Fall League is run by MLB as a place for prospects to get extra playing time after the regular minor league season ends. Generally, the competition level in the AFL is somewhere around AA/AAA, although a small number of top prospects from the lower levels of the minors are usually present. This year, the A's sent eight players (and a manager) to play for the Phoenix Desert Dogs:

Ryan Ortiz, C (AA)
Dusty Coleman, SS (A+)
Michael Choice, OF (A+)
Grant Green, OF (AA)
Anthony Capra, LHP (AA)
Andrew Carignan, RHP (AAA/MLB)
Tyson Ross, RHP (AAA/MLB)
Murphy Smith, RHP (A+)

Clearly, the standout of the group is OF Michael Choice, as he demolished the Cal League in 2011 to the tune of a .918 OPS. The big question mark on Choice has always been that his high strikeout rate may indicate poor performance against a stronger competition level of pitching, so even in a one month small sample of AFL play, this is a great test for him. And he's passing with flying colors.

A+ Stockton (2011): .285/.376/.542
AFL Phoenix (2011): .333/.424/.745

A+ Stockton (2011): 24.7 K%
AFL Phoenix (2011): 15.5 K%

Choice is tied for the league lead in home runs, he's second in OPS, I could go on and on. I know it's a small sample, but considering this is the first taste of upper-level pitching he's seen, Choice deserves all the raves he's getting. It should be an interesting year to see in Midland next year.

As for the rest of the team, though, it's not nearly as rosy. Ryan Ortiz has been one of the only other positives, and he's been entirely powerless. Tyson Ross has nice peripherals, but he has 75 major league innings under his belt, and he should be dominating this competition level. Grant Green has been his usual uninspiring self, and everyone else...you don't even want to know.

Capra: 12.86 ERA, 7.0 IP, 7/7 K/BB
Carignan: 5.63 ERA, 8.0 IP, 12/5 K/BB
Ross: 4.91 ERA, 11.0 IP, 10/3 K/BB

Ortiz: .308/.417/.385
Coleman: .107/.194/.214
Green: .258/.306/.439

When the AFL announces the rosters for the Rising Stars Game on November 5th, get ready to hear Choice's name a whole lot more. As for everyone else, well, try again next spring?

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Comments

I wonder what's wrong with Ross

Since he came back from injury, he’s been really bad… Think he’s still hurt or is he gun shy?

When Grant Green gets on a hot streak, Beane needs to trade him. He can’t play defense and is a marginal hitter at best. Unless something miraculous happens, he’ll never be a major leaguer

by Screamer on Nov 1, 2011 9:48 AM PDT reply actions

Where do you hear Green can't play D?

The Goldstein on his podcast discussed Green and thought he would be competent in center. He’s probably better suited for a corner OF slot, but his hit tool probably will not be up to par there.

by echerrst on Nov 1, 2011 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions

didn't hi motion get tweaked between 2010 and 2011?

maybe he is readjusting to the new ways.

We yet enjoy little to be envied, but endure much to be pitied.-Thomas Dudley

by Future Ed on Nov 1, 2011 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions

I don't think he's actually hurt,

just that he never really had that time in AAA until this year, he was just dumped into the majors. He’s still got work to do.

by danmerqury on Nov 1, 2011 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions

In Ross's defense...

Isn’t the AFL an extreme hitter’s league? In which case, while I agree that he should be dominating, his peripherals are far more important than his ERA.
Is he, perhaps, working on something since his return from the injury? Maybe refining a pitch or adding a new one? It could explain why he walked so many people at Sac.

"The Lord has blessed us with birthday cake!"

by ozzman99 on Nov 1, 2011 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions

Thanks dan!

We yet enjoy little to be envied, but endure much to be pitied.-Thomas Dudley

by Future Ed on Nov 1, 2011 10:55 AM PDT reply actions

Oh wait, I guess they're announcing the pitchers in four player groups...

in 15 minute intervals.

by danmerqury on Nov 1, 2011 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions

so there's still hope for Capra?

by DDroney on Nov 1, 2011 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions

Not really

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Nov 1, 2011 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions

A suggestion

Anytime rate stats are presented we should know how many PA’s they represent. We know that AFL sample sizes are small, but how small?

How about a slash line like: 283/328/449 (322)

That way I know that it was 322 PA’s so the sample is about half a season and decent.

Also, I can disregard something like: 323/382/590 (44)

Cardenas!!!! WoooooooooooooHOOOOOOOOO

by Mattel on Nov 1, 2011 11:54 AM PDT reply actions

lets just say, its encouraging that Michael Choice is not striking out more.

We yet enjoy little to be envied, but endure much to be pitied.-Thomas Dudley

by Future Ed on Nov 1, 2011 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions

Ah, that's a great idea.

Sadly, the only place I could find AFL stats was the official MLB page, which, unbelievably stupidly, doesn’t list PA. Or sacrifice hits. So I can fake PA by adding AB to BB, but I’ll be off by a few, because of sacrifice hits.

But anyway, Michael Choice has 62 PA (plus a few for sacrifices) so far in the AFL, and K rate reaches a split-half 0.7 correlation at 150 PA, according to Pizza Cutter. So is Choice’s 62 PAs really all that telling? Not necessarily, but it’s a good bet. He has a little less than half the PAs required for stability, and his K rate is dramatically less. Regress the AFL number appropriately and you’re still looking at 20% or so, which is nice to see.

by danmerqury on Nov 1, 2011 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Its the AFL let 'em rip! No sacrifices allowed!

Haha

Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!

by dwishinsky on Nov 1, 2011 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions

You can almost always figure out PA because the OBP is calculated out to three digits. Multiply his OBP by a list of feasible plate appearances (in this case, I started with 70 and worked my way on up) to get the number of times on base. The one that’s closest to an integer (usually within .03) is the one that represents his PAs. In that case, if he’s been at the plate 73 times, he’d theoretically have been on base 31.025 times, so he must have 3 sac hits of some sort.

Adopted father of Chris Lincecum, without whom (quite literally) Timmy would not exist.

by speckops on Nov 6, 2011 7:40 PM PST up reply actions

Assuming we build our team around Choice

When can we expect to be competitive? I’d say within 2 years at the earliest.

I say we trade Gio, Cahill, and Bailey for any prospects that will be ready in 2 years or less.

by ErikFanClubPres on Nov 1, 2011 12:42 PM PDT reply actions

Pretty sure Gio and Cahill will be a lot better in +2 years and they will still be around..

So why would you trade them and not just have them here with you..Choice?

"We drank, we fought! He made his ancestor proud!"

by inspyro on Nov 1, 2011 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions

Sure,

But we still have empty spots all over the diamond.

I have complete confidence in Beane’s ability to find quality starting pitching. If we can get a starting pitching prospect, and say an infield prospect for gio or cahill, why shouldn’t we?

by ErikFanClubPres on Nov 1, 2011 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions

Too soon to assume that

If it were me I’d be building toward 2013. You potentially have a rotation of Gonzo, Anderson, Cahill, McCarthy (they should sign him now imo), and Braden. That’s potentially crazy good.

There’s a ton of prospects/youngsters that need to be sorted out in 2012 like Allen, Carter, Barton, Ka’aihue, Taylor, Miller, that cover the gaps in OF/1B. If just two of those guys work out then you plug in Choice and the team is looking pretty good. I say, let them all play and take your lumps in the W/L column.

The left side of the infield is not great, but not going to kill you either.

But the stadium situation is the big wild card…

Cardenas!!!! WoooooooooooooHOOOOOOOOO

by Mattel on Nov 1, 2011 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions

Does Gio go by "Gonzo" now?

I associate that nickname with other Gonzalezes but not with him.

Being wrong about something you’ve worked on is a blessing, not a curse, and people are so invested in being right that that gets lost. —Graham MacAree

by iglew on Nov 1, 2011 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions

Agree except you should add Sonny Gray to the

potential rotation. He could be a stud and probably will be up at some point in 2013, I would think.

by drink on Nov 1, 2011 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions

Glass half full

Yay! We have one guy who looks like a star at this level.

People on AN are always saying that they’d rather have one superstar and a bunch of scrubs than a whole bunch of guys who are OK. Well, there you go.

Being wrong about something you’ve worked on is a blessing, not a curse, and people are so invested in being right that that gets lost. —Graham MacAree

by iglew on Nov 1, 2011 1:11 PM PDT reply actions

Grant Green better start getting on base more, or he's gonna make us all miss T-Long.

Choice’s performance is encouraging, but I won’t get overly encouraged until he:

A. Doesn’t quit baseball to join the priesthood, and
B. Carries over this performance to Midland next year.

"The Lord has blessed us with birthday cake!"

by ozzman99 on Nov 1, 2011 1:31 PM PDT reply actions

Change that "encouraged" to "excited" when you read that, please.

Thanks.

"The Lord has blessed us with birthday cake!"

by ozzman99 on Nov 1, 2011 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions

Can we change "Midland" to "Sacramento," too?

Keep in mind that Chris Carter destroyed the Texas League. For hitters like Carter and Choice, the real test doesn’t come until AAA.

by Spass30 on Nov 1, 2011 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions

Fair enough.

"The Lord has blessed us with birthday cake!"

by ozzman99 on Nov 1, 2011 8:47 PM PDT up reply actions

A made me laugh out loud

the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust

by stm72 on Nov 1, 2011 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions

Once bitten, twice shy.

"The Lord has blessed us with birthday cake!"

by ozzman99 on Nov 1, 2011 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions

great white

the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust

by stm72 on Nov 1, 2011 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions

I can almost smell the Aqua Net.

"The Lord has blessed us with birthday cake!"

by ozzman99 on Nov 1, 2011 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions

and the manslaughter

We yet enjoy little to be envied, but endure much to be pitied.-Thomas Dudley

by Future Ed on Nov 1, 2011 7:35 PM PDT up reply actions

And there we go.

MLBazFallLeague Arizona Fall League
West outfielders: #Athletics Michael Choice, #Padres Jaff Decker, #BlueJays Anthony Gose #AFLRisingStars

http://twitter.com/#!/MLBazFallLeague/status/131479441263173634

by danmerqury on Nov 1, 2011 2:20 PM PDT reply actions

Doubtful Prospects

I feel somewhat embarrassed about the A’s between-seasons performance. Michael Choice is the only notable one, and he gets lost among the better prospects from other clubs playing in the AFL – and the Phoenix Desert Dogs, where all A’s players are, is next to last among the six teams of the AFL, with a .333 winning percentage.
However, I am even more concerned about the players in the Caribbean Leagues. In the Venezuelan League of Professional Baseball, where the A’s were represented by RHP Guillermo Moscoso, 1B Chris Carter, RHP Jeiler Castillo (A), 3B Leonardo Gil (A+), OF Douglas Landaeta, 3B Jeff Baisley, OF Jonesy Zarraga (19 y.o.). After three weeks of play, they do not even appear in lineups! Granted, the Venezuelan League is, probably, a AAA level, but at least Moscoso and Carter could have figured there, but I could not find them. The only one appearing among batting leaders with a .122 AVG or higher is Jeff Baisley, 29 y.o.
In the Dominican Baseball League I noticed C Eliezer Mesa (A+), 1B Brandon Allen (MLB), RHP Graham Godfrey (AAA/MLB), LHP Jordan Norberto (AAA), RHP Jose Guzman (A+) – all with lackluster results – only RHP Jonathan Ortiz (AA) showed an acceptable ERA.
In the Pacific Coast Mexican League I found 2B Adam Rosales (AAA/MLB), RHP Andres Avila (AZL) and LHP Carlos Hernandez (AAA), all with sub-par stats.
These results are dismal and do not forebode any progress next year, on the strength of absent capable prospects. Caribbean baseball takes a lot of energy and the teams demand a lot from players associated with American baseball. Thus, from what I observed in the past, players who excel there in Winter, often end up playing at the MLB level next year. However, there is little the A’s can expect from their current crop of minor-leagers.

by Questor on Nov 1, 2011 3:41 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

Moscoso

My understanding is that the A’s asked Moscoso to hold off on pitching in Venezuela until at least December, at which point they’ll revisit the question.

I don’t read Spanish well, but I’m pretty sure that’s what Manolo Hernández-Douen (a veteran Spanish-language baseball writer in SF) is saying here:

[…]

Y la parte feliz de la conversación con el alto mando de los Atléticos, en este caso representada por David Forst, asistente al gerente general Billy Beane, es que la organización de Oakland se lo agradece plenamente.

"Me dijo que con el trabajo que he hecho puedo repetir el año que viene [como abridor], puedo estar en la rotación", expresó satisfecho Moscoso. "Voy a comenzar con otra cara. Va a ser [en los Entrenamientos de Primavera] como para mantener el puesto.

"Quieren que descanse lo más que pueda, que siga trabajando con los pitcheos rompientes", indicó Moscoso en sus declaraciones a Béisbol por Gotas.

"Con respecto a Venezuela, tengo que esperar hasta diciembre, para pedir de nuevo el permiso cuando salga de la fatiga extrema a ver si me lo dan", reveló el nativo de Maracay. "Todo depende de como esté [entonces] el equipo en Venezuela, pero sí se los voy a pedir."

[…]

Link to full post

(There are several posts about Moscoso in the narrow column that goes down the right. They’re in reverse order so if you search Moscoso, it’s the first hit.)

Here is another story reporting the same thing, which I believe is sourced from the blog. (I like this story because it refers to the A’s as “los paquidermos de la bahía”.)

Being wrong about something you’ve worked on is a blessing, not a curse, and people are so invested in being right that that gets lost. —Graham MacAree

by iglew on Nov 1, 2011 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions

From Google Translate at least

And the happy part of the conversation with the high command of the Athletics, in this case represented by David Forst, assistant general manager Billy Beane, is that the Oakland organization fully appreciates it.

“He told me the work I’ve done I can repeat next year [as a starter], I can be in the rotation,” Moscoso said content. "I’ll start with another face.’s Going to be [in Spring Training] to keep the job.

“They want to rest as much as possible, to continue working with breaking pitches,” Moscoso said in their statements by Baseball Drops.

“With regard to Venezuela, I have to wait until December to ask for permission again when you leave the extreme fatigue to see if they give me,” revealed the native of Maracay. “It all depends on how it is [then] the team in Venezuela, but they are going to ask.”

Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!

by dwishinsky on Nov 1, 2011 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions

i’ll clean up the last ¶ for clarity on the pronouns.

“in regards to venezuela, i have to wait until december to ask again for permission, once i get out of extreme fatigue, to see if they give it to me,” said the maracay native. “everything depends on how the team in venezuela is [at that time], but yes, i’m going to ask them.”

by AV on Nov 1, 2011 5:50 PM PDT up reply actions

I can't wait to see what face he starts with next year.

"The Lord has blessed us with birthday cake!"

by ozzman99 on Nov 1, 2011 8:50 PM PDT up reply actions

Jiaro Garcia's?

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Nov 2, 2011 6:44 AM PDT up reply actions

Moscoso P.S.

Moscoso is a big star for Caracas. There’s no way the Leones just benched him. If he’s not pitching you can be sure it’s because someone told him not to.

Being wrong about something you’ve worked on is a blessing, not a curse, and people are so invested in being right that that gets lost. —Graham MacAree

by iglew on Nov 1, 2011 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions

los paquidermos de la bahía

That is awesome. I want that on a t-shirt.

by Glorious Mundy on Nov 1, 2011 8:14 PM PDT up reply actions

Or at the very least

in the headline of a game thread.

Being wrong about something you’ve worked on is a blessing, not a curse, and people are so invested in being right that that gets lost. —Graham MacAree

by iglew on Nov 1, 2011 9:00 PM PDT up reply actions

Anyone in SoCal want to catch an AFL game before they wrap up?

November 12th or 13th? Anyone up to drive out to AZ possibly? (I’m 50/50 on it at this point)

Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!

by dwishinsky on Nov 1, 2011 4:35 PM PDT reply actions

I like Grant Green.

So he’s probably screwed.

"This must be heaven," he says.
"No. It's Oakland."

by Kyli on Nov 1, 2011 5:26 PM PDT reply actions

You'll be able to see Choice play in the AFL Rising Stars game Saturday on MLB Network

Last of the Ninth - Photography

by Flashfire on Nov 1, 2011 11:03 PM PDT reply actions

Smack me with a brick, Captain Beef Jerky!

Color my pillow yellow and call me a monkey! I said call me a monkey, you dimple-wearing, slouching bagger! No knock-kneed simple-pieman’s gonna keep me greening for him! Not on a Sunday, I’ll give you that!

by Leopold Bloom on Nov 2, 2011 1:50 AM PDT reply actions

Given the existence

as uttered forth in the public works of Puncher and Wattmann of a personal God quaquaquaqua

Being wrong about something you’ve worked on is a blessing, not a curse, and people are so invested in being right that that gets lost. —Graham MacAree

by iglew on Nov 2, 2011 2:58 AM PDT up reply actions

he would like to canoodle her too some part of the time for he is downright fond of his number one but O he's fair mashed on peaches number two

by Leopold Bloom on Nov 2, 2011 5:40 AM PDT up reply actions

Moscoso

Happy to hear that Mosco is resting (as he should during the Winter break) instead of being shelved! And, considering that the Caracas team is always in the Championship mix, it speaks highly of their relationship with the A’s that they are allowing an A’s player special privileges.

Does anyone have any news/analysis – anything encouraging – on any other A’s organization players during Winter games anywhere? It seems to me that MLB reports are somewhat skewed. In particular, I noticed that Andrew Carignan seemed to be striking out about two per inning – has anyone heard about any hope for his future? He must have some kind of stuff to have such a high strikout rate – unless he is just wild and all over the plate, so hitters do not know whether to get ready to hit or to bail out . . .
I can’t understand the rankings in Scouting Book: #45/46 for Grant Green and Chris Carter, and #101 for Michael Choice! Do they rate by performance, or by Minor League level?
Any comments would be appreciated!

by Questor on Nov 2, 2011 7:55 AM PDT reply actions