So The Thing About Rich Harden...
by Nico on Oct 15, 2011 9:21 AM PDT
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Printis that he actually didn't pitch very well in 2011. This was easy to overlook, since not only was Harden a "low-risk bargain" at $1M, but during many stretches he dazzled with his fastball-changeup combo that, when the changeup is moving every which way, makes him unhittable at that moment or for that stretch of innings. It gave Rich the appearance of someone who is probably unhittable most of the time.
But by any measure, Harden was not in fact effective overall.
Starting with the most basic statistic, despite calling "pitcher-friendly" Oakland his home Harden posted a 5.12 ERA for the season. Ouch.
Continuing on, he gave up a rather mind-numbing 17 HRs in his 82.2 IP. They weren't cheapies, either, often coming on hanging changeups that right-handed batters deposited 20 rows deep into the bleachers.
If you like FIP, you probably won't care for Harden's: 4.69 (xFIP 3.68). Essentially, he walked quite a few, struck out a lot, gave up a truckload of HRs, and wasn't especially effective in between.
Innings eater? Not. Harden made 15 starts and in only 7 of them did he pitch as many as 6 IP. More typically, Harden was good for about 5.0 (twice), 5.1 (twice), or 5.2 (once). Except in the first half of the season when he didn't pitch at all.
What you had, in Rich Harden, was a pitcher who would generally go about 5.1 IP and strike out 6, but would also walk a couple, give up 3 ER (including a HR), and leave the bullpen to figure out the other 11 outs. Not terribly helpful and quite easy to replace.
Is he worth a flier for $1M? Quite possibly. However, the premise is that he never seems to be healthy, but when he is "Oh my, the guy can still dazzle." Or can he?
In other news, the Mets have named Bob Geren as their new bench coach. Asked about the job, Geren was (probably) quoted as singing, "If I can sniff my finger there, I can sniff my finger anywhere..." Comparative IQs of Geren and the Mets' actual bench were not made immediately available.
Tigers-Claw People at 5:00 PDT today, Max "Shur-zir" against Derek Holland, with the CPs leading the series 3-2.
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Another Nico classic
I love the (probably) Geren acceptance quote and am glad he found a kindred soul in the Met’s bench.
"-i never said half the things i said." --Yogi Berra
"You know, the Mets lost but I thought the bench was really sturdy.
Sure it was full of splinters, but I think that’s coincidence more than anything. I’m really proud of this bench and proud to be in charge of it. It’s a shame our team is 0-42 now but I think we’ll turn it around soon."
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
sadly, Harden did not dazzle even when reasonably healthy
as for Geren’s new job, Alderson must’ve owed Beane a favor…
Hopefully if Alderson becomes the next Commissioner,
he won’t hold it against the A’s that they Gerened him.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'm fine with Harden not being around again
Also, I’m very glad Geren is completely gone.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Any thoughts
on how effective he might be in a middle relief role?
Business man by day, fearless couch guardian by night.
It seems problematic that his worst inning is consistently his first one.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I find it unlikely he maintains his HR/FB ratio.
It was the highest of his career, in Oakland, in a time where HRs are becoming more and more rare. Both SIERA and xFIP thought he was a good pitcher that got unlucky with the amount of HRs he allowed.
""Expelliarmus!" said Eckstein, attempting to knock the bat out of Matt Kemp's hands, just before Kemp laced a single to center." -Ken Tremendous
That HR by Willy Mo Pena might have been the hardest hit ball I've ever seen.
Business man by day, fearless couch guardian by night.
Cool
""Expelliarmus!" said Eckstein, attempting to knock the bat out of Matt Kemp's hands, just before Kemp laced a single to center." -Ken Tremendous
He did obliterate it
But Wily Mo is not a man who has ever been cheated on a swing.
Al Davis 1929-2011 Just rest in peace, baby
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
Follow me on Twitter @FernandoRGallo
That was amazing
Then again, I’m pretty much in the Wily Mo fan club.
"He's listed as day to day, but then again, aren't we all?" — Vin Scully
I'd say, "sorry SIERA and xFIP, but you're mistaken."
He hung a ton of changeups; that’s why he gave up so many HRs. They weren’t cheap, they were bombs caused by mistakes left out on a tee.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
according to hittracker
9 of the HR would have bee out of 30 parks
3 20-29
3 10-19
2 would only make it out of 1 park.
We yet enjoy little to be envied, but endure much to be pitied.-Thomas Dudley
just counted them, I could be wrong
We yet enjoy little to be envied, but endure much to be pitied.-Thomas Dudley
Plenty of pitchers leave mistakes and get away with them.
I’d say it just so happens that they seemed make good contact on more of the mistakes than normal. In any given year the leaders in HR/FB regress the following year. I’m not sure anyone has ever maintained a ratio north of 15%, that’s pretty absurd.
""Expelliarmus!" said Eckstein, attempting to knock the bat out of Matt Kemp's hands, just before Kemp laced a single to center." -Ken Tremendous
The top 3 HR/FB rates for "Qualified" SP on Fangraphs cumulatively since 2002 are
Brett Myers 14.2% (1623.1 IP)
Brandon Webb 13.2% (1319.2)
Cory Lidle 12.8% (951.1)
Harden’s last 3 years he’s had a 15.1%, 12.5% and 15.6%. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that he could continue to hover around the 13% number.
That said, I agree with you that SIERA and xFIP liked him and he’s worth a flyer similar to the one he got in 2011. It’s not like he’s blocking anyone good. He doesn’t pitch enough to do that. I wouldn’t give him any more than $3M or so though.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 16, 2011 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions
The 2 years prior were in HR friendly environments
It’s pretty tough to maintain a ratio that high in Oakland. Oakland pitchers consistently lead the league in HR/FB ratio. I’d also bet that those pitchers you mentioned have had lower ratios the past few seasons due to the significant decline of the HR.
Before this season I was planning to make a thread about how the predicted regression of A’s pitchers might be a little overblown because their HR/FB ratio as a team was uncharacteristically high for Oakland in 2010. Unfortunately I never got around to it, but the team’s ratio did in fact regress to normal levels.
""Expelliarmus!" said Eckstein, attempting to knock the bat out of Matt Kemp's hands, just before Kemp laced a single to center." -Ken Tremendous
Err, well only one of them has been pitching as of late..
""Expelliarmus!" said Eckstein, attempting to knock the bat out of Matt Kemp's hands, just before Kemp laced a single to center." -Ken Tremendous
And interestingly
those 3 pitchers do have one thing in common, they’ve been playing in HR friendly parks.
""Expelliarmus!" said Eckstein, attempting to knock the bat out of Matt Kemp's hands, just before Kemp laced a single to center." -Ken Tremendous
It's interesting cause those guys are all groundball heavy pitchers, whereas Harden is not.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Oct 16, 2011 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions
For some reason extreme flyball pitchers tend to have lower HR/FB ratios
Matt Cain for example
""Expelliarmus!" said Eckstein, attempting to knock the bat out of Matt Kemp's hands, just before Kemp laced a single to center." -Ken Tremendous
Yes, Harden will probably not give up a HR every 5 IP next year
That doesn’t mean he’ll give up one every 30 IP, nor that he actually pitched well and just got really unlucky with so many balls flying out of the yard. That latter notion is what’s absurd.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
It's not absurd at all.
There’s a huge luck component involved in whether fly balls turn into home runs.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Oct 16, 2011 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions
one common denominator -
the ball was hit pretty damn hard. Regardless of the outcome, not generally a good thing.
slide! jeremy slide!
Nope.
This line of thinking (the home runs Harden gave up were very hard hit and therefore weren’t fluky but likely to repeat) seems to be prevalent in this thread so let’s examine it.
Harden’s home runs travelled an average distance of 394.7 feet.
Home runs this year travelled an average distance of 393.7 feet.
Harden’s home runs travelled at an average of 104.5 MPH off the bat.
Home runs this year travelled at an average of 103.5 MPH off the bat.
Harden’s home runs were hit 1 MPH harder and travelled 1 foot farther than that of the average homer in the league. That’s not significant at all.
For further comparison,
Cahill: 395.4 ft, 103.4 MPH
Gio: 396.3 ft, 102.7 MPH
Gio’s and Cahill’s homers were both hit a little farther than Harden’s but no one seems to be complaining about them. This could simply be a case where one example (e.g. the oft cited Wily Mo Pena homer) becomes the basis of an extrapolation error. People remember how hard that homer was hit and, consciously or unconsciously, assume that all Harden’s homers were hit as hard as that one.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Oct 17, 2011 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
he is totally worth a flyer on
I hope the A’ give him another deal like they did
We yet enjoy little to be envied, but endure much to be pitied.-Thomas Dudley
You think he can be gotten for that?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 16, 2011 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, I'll go as high as 1/5.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Oct 16, 2011 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't know from those things, but this sounds about right.
We yet enjoy little to be envied, but endure much to be pitied.-Thomas Dudley
well, now that the Reds have denied the A's permission to interview Bryan Price
(according to a tweet by Carl Steward @stewardsfolly) who do the A’s get to fill in for one year?
We wait a couple weeks for Curt Young.
by dashman33 on Oct 15, 2011 4:38 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Isn't this going to be La Russa's last year
If so… could the A’s somehow trade for Dave Duncan? Maybe one of the 37 first basemen Oakland has in the system? Haha.
"He's listed as day to day, but then again, aren't we all?" — Vin Scully
LaRussa wins MOY, and possibly the pennant and possibly the WS
There is no way he leaves with two of those three
We yet enjoy little to be envied, but endure much to be pitied.-Thomas Dudley
Perfect job for Bob
I think he can coach a bench
Do you know the way to San Jose?
by eastcoasta'sfan on Oct 15, 2011 2:26 PM PDT reply actions
But will he bench a coach?
Or trot him out there in the wrong situations, a la Brian Fuentes?
Al Davis 1929-2011 Just rest in peace, baby
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
Follow me on Twitter @FernandoRGallo
The first thing about Rich Harden is
YOU DON’T TALK ABOUT RICH HARDEN.
The second thing about Rich Harden is: YOU DON’T TALK ABOUT RICH HARDEN.
The third thing is, you struggle with your control and give up a lot of home runs.
Al Davis 1929-2011 Just rest in peace, baby
"Da greatness of Da Rooster" - RLangford
Follow me on Twitter @FernandoRGallo
by darooster on Oct 15, 2011 4:35 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I think Geren is well suited for any job in baseball that is not major league manager
We yet enjoy little to be envied, but endure much to be pitied.-Thomas Dudley
I think the stats don't tell the whole story
Down the stretch it seemed like he pitched relatively well until the third time trough the lineup. Which is when he would give up the HRs (or he would get shelled in the first then settle down) I think if he could pick up a third pitch, like a cutter he would be more than serviceable.
When You Think About It,
Harden’s actually part of a category of pitchers: guys can be electric and who have great pure stuff, but can’t get it together. The Harden of years past is gone; he can look great sometimes, with his fastball-changeup combo, but he’s wild and gives up lots of homeruns.
As for Bob Geren; well, I was hoping the Sox would pick him up, but alas, tis not to be.
Exactly.
He is, ultimately, a two-pitch pitcher and it’s very hard to succeed as a SP with two pitches.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
If a 3.3 BB/9 constitutes "wild", then many pitchers would be very wild, including our own Cahill and Gonzalez this year.
And almost none of them struck out nearly 10 batters an inning like Harden did.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Oct 16, 2011 4:06 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
reply fail to Jason James
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Oct 16, 2011 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Well,
I don’t just mean wild as in walks, I also mean it as in leaving pitches hanging, hits & homeruns allowed, wild pitches, hit batters, etc.
But yes, when you look at the stats, Cahill and Gio were wild, too.
League average BB/9 is around 3.1.
Forget about comparing him to Cahill and Gio, Harden’s walks were right in line with league average.
Nothing out of his hit rate (87 in 82 IP), WP (4), and HB (2) is at a higher rate than average. He throws more than the average number of changeups but I’ve seen nothing to suggest that he hangs changeups at a higher rate than other pitchers. Obviously, his home runs allowed is high, but along with hits, I’ve never seen that defined under “wildness”. I think you’re reaching here.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Oct 17, 2011 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions
When I first saw the title of this post......I thought we were going somewhere else with it...
There is no A in OFFENSE!!
You! Back in your cage!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
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