Kevin Kouzmanoff's Odd Transformation
Hey Athletics Nation. I'm a columnist over at Beyond the Box Score and today I wrote up an article looking at Kevin Kouzmanoff's transformation from all-bat prospect to all-glove MLB third baseman. I thought I would share it with you guys considering that he's likely to be your third baseman next season. Hope you guys enjoy it, and thanks for reading.
Here's a link to the original post: LINK!!!
And here's the content... thanks:
When Kevin Kouzmanoff was making his way through the minor leagues, he was generally turning heads with good power and hitting ability. With the bat as his blatant calling card, you just didn't really hear anything about the glove. In his 2006 book, John Sickels noted concern about his durability and age, but added that, "he is a legitimate hitter who could hit .280 in the majors with good pop."
He was already 21 at the beginning of his career but made it Triple-A by the time that he was 24, when that Sickels blurb was written. And frankly, it's easy to see why Kouzmanoff's offensive potential excited people. Kouzmanoff made it to the majors in 2007 and never returned, leaving his career minor league line at a sparkling .332/.395/.556, including OPS marks over 1.000 in both Double-A and Triple-A. With monster power numbers, a reasonable strikeout/walk ratio and a high BABIP, Kouzmanoff looked precisely like the kind of player that could have an extended career as a solid regular.
And in the end, he has been a solid everyday third baseman. Over the past four seasons, he's put up between 2.5 and 2.9 WAR in each season, with his mark improving slightly each year. But what's fascinating isn't his WAR-sistency. Rather, it's the fact that he's compiled a good deal of that value from developing into an elite defensive third baseman as his offensive game has deteriorated
After the Padres traded Josh Barfield for Kouzmanoff, they made him their regular third baseman in 2007 and he impressed. His .275/.329/.457 line wouldn't seem to be impressive from a distance, but he was actually 10% above the league average after factoring in Petco Park's effects. He would have been more valuable, but his glove graded out as 4 runs below average according to UZR.
But over the next few years, Kouzmanoff went through an incredible transformation that couldn't be described as anything but gradual, and you can see it in almost all of his numbers.
ISO: .182, .173, .164, .149
BABIP: .304, .297, .285, .270
wOBA: .339, .316, .312, .296
Basically, this is a quick and easy explanation of Kouzmanoff's offensive break down. Now, it's worth noting that Kouzmanoff basically moved from the NL's most pitcher-friendly park, San Diego, to the AL's most pitcher-friendly park in Oakland, but all that does is make his career .258/.302/.425 line look somewhat better than it otherwise would. But pretty much any hitter that loses 35 points each in both isolated power and BABIP is going to lose most of his value, and Kouzmanoff was no different.
But where Kouzmanoff was different, though, was on defense. Rather than watch his overall value plummet along with his offensive value, Kouzmanoff has not only made up for his offensive decline with defensive improvement. He's actually made himself better overall. It's almost as if he decided that he wanted to be a different kind of player, but necessarily a better player.
After putting up that -3.8 UZR in 2007, he followed that up with a +2.3 UZR in 2008 and a +7.5 UZR in 2009. After the 2009 season, he finally started to get some attention as a quality glove after leading all MLB third baseman in fielding percentage. Apparently that caught the eye of Billy Beane, who acquired Kouzmanoff to take over at third in Oakland.
And despite putting up a career-worst .247/.283(!!!)/.396 line, Kouzmanoff actually put up the best WAR of his career. How, you ask? Why, with a +16 UZR. This is the same guy that was considered an average-at-best defender just three years before. And now he's putting up better UZR marks than Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Scott Rolen and Adrian Beltre.
I don't know what the precedent is for this kind of thing, where we literally watch a player maintain his value by offsetting offensive decline with defensive improvement. But this struck me as a pretty unique situation. I'd love to hear if anyone else has seen something like this.
Oh, and another funny fact? The only guy that put up a better UZR at third base in 2010 was Chase Headley. As in the guy that pushed the Padres to deal Kouzmanoff to Oakland in the first place.
22 comments
|
2 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
That ridiculous UZR will drop this year...
as will Kouz’s value. We don’t want him.
At one point in my life I liked Dave Kingman more than Rickey Henderson. I was stupid.
That ridiculous UZR will drop this year...
and he will hit better. 2.5+ WAR 3B aren’t easy to come by. We will keep him until something better comes along.
Buy some class, act like you've been there before.
Hit better? We'll see about that.
At one point in my life I liked Dave Kingman more than Rickey Henderson. I was stupid.
by the_rozeboom on Jan 25, 2011 9:29 AM PST up reply actions
I expect him to hit better.
He will hit out of the 6-7 spot, which is much better suited for him. Plus he couldn’t hit much worse than he did last year anyways.
Good points.
At one point in my life I liked Dave Kingman more than Rickey Henderson. I was stupid.
by the_rozeboom on Jan 25, 2011 9:42 AM PST up reply actions
I'm not expecting a very big change offensively
Maybe .255/.300/.415, but I believe in his defense enough that I think he’ll put up another 2.5-3 WAR season, and should be able to continue that (wherever he may be playing) for another 3-4 seasons. There’s also that outside chance we get a nice BABIP fueled .270 average with 20 HR’s, and that I wouldn’t mind in 2011 no doubt. He is what he is, a pretty average 3B with the potential to be a little above average, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. It definitely wouldn’t be a bad thing if we had another bat or two at other positions on the diamond.
I can't really explain why his glove has become so much better
since I didn’t pay too much attention to him in San Diego. I can tell you he has fantastic range though; the Oakland foul territory helps a lot as he’s able to chase down a ton of stuff in foul territory that would simply be in the stands in other parks.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 25, 2011 9:36 AM PST reply actions
As we all know, the 3B foul territory was heaven for Chavy...
Hey, I just realized that if Chavez plays for the Dodgers (it’s a long-shot but the tryout seemed to go well…), he would actually play in Chavez Ravine. I know, I’m an idiot…
At one point in my life I liked Dave Kingman more than Rickey Henderson. I was stupid.
by the_rozeboom on Jan 25, 2011 9:48 AM PST up reply actions
Hmm, so it appears I was wrong before.
UZR DOES count infield foul hits, but not outfield foul hits. Interesting.
Yes, I totally knew this when I wrote that and did not at all just happen to assume correctly.
I am the smartest.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 25, 2011 10:03 AM PST up reply actions
Why would that be?
Are they assuming it’s much harder to make an out on an infield foul ball than an outfield foul ball?
All flash no substance hair twirler.
I think it's more the fact that OF foul territory is really, really small.
And the smaller the zone, the worse the sample size issues, and so on and so forth.
Nice Post
Kouzmanoff should pleasantly surprise many of his detractors and his maturity as a player will pay off this season. Last year Pennington had his detractors at SS and he played solidly, occasionally spectacularly in the field.
"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King
That reminds me
I seem to recall a time not to long ago where the dominant thought was that the Oakland infield defense was a product of Ron Washington’s defensive coaching and that it would nevee recover from his leaving Oakland. Can we let go of that myth now that we had the best defensive first baseman in the game, the second best defensive third baseman, and one of the better defensive SS and 2nd basemen- all without Wash?
by mikedaviswhereareyou on Jan 25, 2011 1:23 PM PST up reply actions
Interesting.
I hadn’t even thought about that. Either Wash isn’t as big as others thought or, more likely, the A’s coaching staff is fine at developing infielders as Wash is.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 25, 2011 2:34 PM PST up reply actions
Daric Barton credits much of his defensive abilities to Wash's instruction
apparently Wash is a good enough teacher that even players who didn’t have years of training with him could benefit greatly.
will improve but how much
It does takes a year to adjust leagues for some players and he will have better hitters around him than last year but I don’t see a big improvement. His power numbers should go up to over 20 but not more than 25. His average will go up but I don’t see it above the 260 mark. His OBA is the concern. If he can show a better eye and improve his walk toatal then he will be the better hitter.
Wouldn't his ISO and BABIP fall in Oakland just because of park factors?
Why expect them to return to San Diego levels?
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
Huh?
Does Oakland negatively impact hitters MORE than San Diego? From Statcorner:
San Diego
wOBA*: 0.323 bRAA: -9.4
Oakland
wOBA*: 0.331 bRAA: 1.6
I’d think he’d be more likely to EXCEED San Diego levels than simply return to them, but I’d at least expect a return to those levels. I’d predict a wOBA between .320 and .330 for Kouz in 2011.
Contributor for Big Cat Country
Follow me on Twitter if you feel like it.
Formerly Gallagher's Watermelons and Player To Be Named Later
by CaliforniaJag on Jan 25, 2011 2:45 PM PST up reply actions
Oakland is tougher on RHB for HR and 1B than San Diego per statcorner
HR — SD 95, Oak 77
3B — SD 94, Oak 94
2B — SD 72, Oak 90
1B — SD 97, Oak 95
wOBA — SD 92, Oak 93
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 25, 2011 5:16 PM PST up reply actions

by 



























