Crowdsource Analysis: Barton's Reverse Splits
by danmerqury on Jan 25, 2011 7:01 AM PST
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PrintA couple weeks ago, baseballgirl posted a story on Daric Barton's odd reverse platoon splits. In the comments, Danny mentioned that it could be interesting to see a PitchFX display between right-handed pitchers and left-handed ones, and how they differ in pitching to Daric. Here we go. (Click for a much bigger version.)
First off, a huge, HUGE thanks to vignette17 for grabbing the 6000+ pieces of data in these plots off of the MLB Gameday servers.
These plots show the location of every single pitch thrown to Daric Barton that was recorded by the PitchFX cameras in his entire career. Keep in mind that unlike the PitchFX plots I usually do, these don't show pitch movement, but pitch location, from the point of view of the catcher. But where do we go from here? I really have no idea what to think. Are those patterns normal? Is Barton just better than the average lefty at hitting LHP? Is it a small sample size mirage?
So I turn to you, the readers and commenters. What do you make of this? I'm stumped.
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This stuff makes my head spin this early in the morning
Actually late morning, early afternoon, late afternoon, early evening, and bedtime too. My guess is that it would probably make sense those times that I’m suffering from insomnia at 3:00 a.m., though.
It's hard to tell without knowing what he swung at
If we use location as a reasonable proxy for a scouting report on Barton, anywhere outside is the way to go to pitch to him, with a slight tendency towards up-and-away. (I suspect this is also the case for many lefties).
After that…. yeah. Not sure.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
Here we might find an answer
I don’t know if I find time to look deeper into it. But a short look and comparison with Matsui seems to suggest that he sees quite a bit more Fastballs, maybe a result of him getting into favorable counts. In the Swing and Take plots for these pitches it looks like he gets quite a couple of them down the middle (four-seamers) and inside (two-seamers).
I don’t know if that makes sense or is all the explanation for that.
Could the amount of fastballs also be relative to batting second, with Coco and Rajai on base ahead of him?
It seems to me that catchers tend to call more fastballs in those situations to help with throwing out basestealers.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
This is just a shot in the dark but
I wonder what his walk percentage is comparatively between right and left handers along with his spray chart. Perhaps he struggles against pitches on the lower and inner half of the plate BUT can see the ball better out of a left handers hand and is less likely to swing at a bad pitch in that location. That would make lefties throw him more to the outside of the plate where he could be a much better hitter.
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It's because he's awesome.
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by mikev on Jan 25, 2011 7:50 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
rec'd
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
hell hath no fury like a Cowboys fan scorned. -Leopold Bloom
by MissOakland on Jan 25, 2011 10:44 AM PST up reply actions
Could this be the first recorded case of too much sample size?
The diagonal pattern:
\ this way from righties; and
/ this way from lefties
I think arises from the fact that the most commonly-used breaking pitches (curves, sliders, and (batter-side grip) cutters) all generally break down and across the body of the pitcher (not to mention that pitchers simply throw across their bodies). In other words, all hitter’s distributions should look nearly identical, and the larger the sample, the more pronounced it will be.
It seems like it’d be hard to use this data without also seeing where/when Barton swung.
Look at this
Called pitches from LHP to Daric Barton
Called pitches from RHP to Daric Barton
Not only do these follow the same distribution as the chart above, but might explain something deeper:
LOOK AT HOW MANY MOTHER TRUCKING OUTSIDE STRIKES GET CALLED ON POOR DARIC FROM RHP! Something like that alone could skew the hell out of someone’s splits. Anyone care to look up what league average outside strike calls are to LHB from RHP?
by sleepingcobra on Jan 25, 2011 8:30 AM PST reply actions 6 recs
various inside pitches are called balls while being in zone
just part of our exciting umpiring world. Can’t know from this picture if other left handed hitters have same skew to strike zone.
Yeah, but inside ball calls are scattered around willy-nilly,
whereas outside strikes (and balls) are localized like an intense rash. Last year, at least, RHPs were pounding the sweet hell out of the outside on Barton, and were getting a ton of calls.
I’m curious to see if umps just sort of as a rule call all kindsa crazy outside strikes on LHB (from RHP), or if umps just hate Barton because he does the splits and has no power.
by sleepingcobra on Jan 25, 2011 9:49 AM PST up reply actions
I remember reading that it is usual for LHB to have a shifted zone
Has to do with the umpire looking over the catchers right shoulder and having trouble calling the left part. Since the inside of the batter generally is called hard vs loose on the outside you see a shift for lefties but no one for righties.
The question is if his zone is still larger than the normal LHB zone.
upper & lower right corners are green
and yes, outer middle is red.
by MobiusKlein on Jan 25, 2011 11:00 AM PST up reply actions
This is an excellent chart
And an excellent fanpost. Just the kind of
High quality content I expect from AN. Now you know what I’d like to do with it? SHOW it to Daric. I don’t know how to do that, but if there is that much a skew towards the outside called strike, Daric ought to know that is coming and hack at those pitches with 2 strikes. Also I would like the umpires to see a chart like this. It looks like As a whole they are screwing Barton to some extent. This is just one more reason to believe Barton might be due for a monster year. If he’s already got a great eye and can adjust to this data, his number might go from awesome to what did Nico call it? Monster numbers? Beastly? Something like that.
by barryzitoforever on Jan 25, 2011 9:44 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
As for the umpires, I'd be more concerned if its only Daric that seems to be getting this zone
If its indicative of the league, then c’est la vie. Consistency is more important; adapting to an Umpire’s zone is a skill. Cliff Lee gets talked about a lot for this skill; if he’s not getting the curveball low early in the game, he stops throwing it, instead of pounding it and getting frustrated when the calls don’t come.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 25, 2011 9:48 AM PST up reply actions
The crappy LHB zone seems to be league-wide.
I remember those now.
Until we get robot umps, Daric needs to adapt to it.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 25, 2011 10:00 AM PST up reply actions
He also takes a lot more pitches in general from RHB
There are a ton more plots in the second graph.
That said, this does shed some light on the situation. It looks like he gets a better zone from LHP, and pitch recognition is a big part of Daric’s game. We all saw how frustrated Barton would get with his zone at times, and how opposing radio announcers would comment that he’s not big enough to get the Pujols zone, meat. That said, it looks like the scouting reports tell pitchers to pitch him down and away, and for some reason RHP are more effective in doing that. RHP breaking stuff would tend to start away and break back into the zone, and Left Handed stuff starts in on Daric and breaks away from the zone. Perhaps Barton is still getting used to seeing stuff get called on the late break, since you don’t see that kind of offspeed command/control much in the minors.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 25, 2011 9:46 AM PST up reply actions
This is an unfair comparison, but nevertheless hilarious:
Every pitch not swung at by Daric Barton in 2010:
Every pitch not swung at by Kevin Kouzmanoff in 2010:
Aside from the sheer volume of pitches Barton doesn’t swing at (and that Kouz does, and I don’t even care that Kouz missed a month), Daric Barton clearly has a gameplan at the plate. That’s why I’m a fan. I like watching hitters who actually know what they’re doing up there. In this case, in a very general sense, Barton spits on low and away pitches routinely.
Kevin Kouzmanoff’s chart is painful. It’s like, literally random. It’s like he literally randomly just didn’t swing at the occasional pitch, when the mood struck.
by sleepingcobra on Jan 25, 2011 11:01 AM PST up reply actions 6 recs
Rec'd
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 25, 2011 11:32 AM PST up reply actions
I'd prefer it be random, personally, rather than having an identifiable weakness that could be exploited.
For instance, here’s Bobby crosby for 09 and 10:
Crosby clearly can’t handle stuff down and away. As a right hander with low OBP, he can’t argue the Daric Barton lefty strike zone; he just can’t hit offspeed stuff down and away. Particularly changeups: in 09 and 10 he swung at 60% of changeups and whiffed at 17.5%, compared to 48/5 for fastballs, and 44/14 for sliders.
Barton needs to figure out what to do with this data. They’re going to keep pounding him down there, and umpires will keep calling it.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 25, 2011 12:18 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Is it a weakness though?
It seems to me that most pitchers pitch hitters low and away. When I looked at a few other LHB with higher walk rates, they tend to show more called strikes in the lower left hand quadrant. Both Mauer and Gardner have lower z-swing %’s. I would imagine that Barton, like Mauer and Gardner, know that a high percentage of the pitches thrown to them are low and outside, but they choose to lay off those (when possible) to swing at a better pitch to hit.
Barton:
Mauer:
Gardner:
I feel like Gardner's chart veers towards Up and away
And Mauer doesn’t have near the blotch of Red down and away that Barton does. Chalk this up to Mauer being known and getting a better zone if you want, but the point is that, regardless of what Barton thinks, he’s taking down and away and it’s getting called on him a lot. Just being right, unfortunately, isn’t good enough until Robot umps come. Barton’s hole isn’t so glaring that he’s not a good player with it, but it is something he could work on to improve his game.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 25, 2011 2:11 PM PST up reply actions
I don't like what you're extrapolating from this.
Hitting is all about playing to one’s strength. It gets said so often it’s cliched, but it’s the absolute truth: “wait for your pitch.” Good hitters hithitters’ pitches – not pitchers’ pitches.
I can’t quite get a bead on what it is you think you’re looking at. Crosby’s chart looks more like Kouzmanoff’s than Barton’s (with a slight shift down and away, but, really, it’s not even close). Remember, those are pitches not swung at. A more or less even distribution over the whole field indicates a lack of plate discipline -- a lack of an ability to recognize which pitch is going where -- and Crosby’s/Kouzmanoff’s On Base Percentages agree.
All those pitches Barton doesn’t swing at low and away are a good thing. Low and away is usually one of the hardest pitches to handle – and by not swinging at them it just means that Barton’s good at recognizing and laying of that pitch. He’s not swinging at pitcher’s pitches. He’s waiting for his pitch and, in doing so, had a pretty damn decent season at the plate last year (better than Kouzmanoff and Crosby put together, by my estimation).
What these charts are saying bears this theory out.
by sleepingcobra on Jan 25, 2011 2:48 PM PST up reply actions
So we prefer Barton just keep taking pitches that will keep getting called on?
Weak contract is usually better than a K looking.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 25, 2011 3:57 PM PST up reply actions
A whole shit ton of those pitches are called balls -
Pitches that Kouzmanoff or Crosby would have flailed at and missed – or rolled over on and served weakly to the shortstop.
by sleepingcobra on Jan 25, 2011 4:04 PM PST up reply actions
Is it?
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 25, 2011 4:07 PM PST up reply actions
That's a little overbroad
Weak contract is usually better than a K looking.
I would argue that it isn’t better when there is less than 2 strikes, or when there are two strikes and a runner on first with less than 2 outs. You could probably make a case that most often it is better not to swing at a pitch you can’t hit hard and take it for a strike.
hahaha
swing soup for Kouz.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 25, 2011 12:48 PM PST up reply actions
Damn it, Kouz.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 25, 2011 1:39 PM PST up reply actions
You are awesome.
Good shit.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Probably too late with my answer
This is a common pattern for all left handers. I explained a bit why that is so here, but the skinny is that catcher handedness being always right makes calling the strike zone a non-symmetrical affair.
.
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I have no idea what this means
but I do like who it’s about. Good work :) haha
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
hell hath no fury like a Cowboys fan scorned. -Leopold Bloom
Lefties seem to be pounding the zone a bit more than righties
It stands to reason that they might be a bit more aggressive against a young left handed hitter. Someone earlier showed that Barton’s damage against lefties is on fastballs almost exclusively.
Couple this with the called strikes against righties and we might have our answer.
Also the called strike chart
Shows a lot less inside pitches than the total pitches chart… This could just be a format thing or a trick of the chart, but it would appear that Barton attacks the inside part of the zone. I would think that lefty pitchers would throw a good amount of fastballs inside to set up breaking stuff away… but I am not sure if they would do this more than righties.
Barton has very little power on the outer half so the fact that righties are being incentivized by the umpires to pitch out there would make it hard for him to do too much damage against them.
For Barton to have success he needs to get a fair strike zone (OBP) and inside pitches to turn on (SLG). He gets that more against lefties.
Or he could move closer to the plate vs righties
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 25, 2011 11:33 AM PST up reply actions
I love these kinds of posts. Thanks Dan!
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 25, 2011 11:33 AM PST reply actions
This is a great post.
And is one of those things that gets us thinking maybe we havn’t even seen the best that Barton can be. And he wasn’t too shabby last year either.
Could be OK. They traded Francisco. Maybe Feliz will stay in the pen.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 25, 2011 12:55 PM PST up reply actions
That's the first thought I had
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 25, 2011 3:26 PM PST up reply actions
Great Post but...
A lot of detail. I guess the devil is in the detail. I always wanted to be a scout, but man if I had to look at charts like that all day I don’t know….LOL!
I guess what you can infer is that Barton for the most part get’s pounded inside by lefties and is pitched away by righties. But conventional wisdom would tell you that the scouting report on Barton is to go in with a lefty pitcher and away with a righty because he’s a good opposite field hitter.
So with that being said, where does he fit in the batting order?
Byron
Barton's place in the Batting order?
So what do you think the projected lineup is?
Me thinks:
CF Coco
LF DDJ
RF Willingham
DH Matsui
C Suzuki
1B Barton
3B Kouz
2B Eliis
SS Pennington
Byron
Barton will bat 2nd or 3rd
My preference is 2nd since he has a higher OBP than DeJesus who I would want 3rd. I also think the amount of pitches barton takes will give Coco or anyone else on base more opportunities to steal.
Yes
That does make a lot more sense. I wonder if Geren wants an RBI guy hitting in the third spot though? But you are most likely correct….
Byron
by DoomandGloom on Jan 25, 2011 1:12 PM PST up reply actions
What constitutes an RBI guy?
Dejesus has a very good contact rate, puts a lot of balls in play, and hits for a high average. He has only moderate power but that’s pretty good considering it’s the A’s. Seems like a pretty good RBI guy to me.
Barton is way to good to bat 6th
At least that’s what I hope.
by barryzitoforever on Jan 25, 2011 7:32 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I favor:
Crisp – CF
Barton – 1B
Matsui – DH
Willingham – LF
DeJesus – RF
Suzuki – C
Koumanoff – 3B
Ellis – 2B
Pennington – SS
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Looks great to me.
Best hitters in 1, 2, and 4, and the next tier is slotted in 3 and 5, with the more powerful one in 3. That’s basically a textbook lineup.
Well I like it anyway.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Wouldn't you rather have DDJ batting second?
Seems like you’d have a little more athleticism higher in the order. My impression is that DDJ is the faster, more athletic player. Someone who could score from first on a Matsui double.
"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me
http://marcel-oehler.marcellosendos.ch/comics/ch/1986/05/19860506.gif
I like Barton's OBP in the #2 hole,
and DDJ’s batting average in the #5 hole. Basically, “get on” bats ahead of “get ’em in”. To me, the issue of who can score more often on a certain kind of double is overshadowed by the more fundamental issue of who gets on more, period.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Ugh...unfortunately, I can totally see Bob doing something like that.
Maybe Kouz 5th instead of Suzuki as well.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 25, 2011 7:38 PM PST up reply actions
Somebody had it earlier when they threw up a mock lineup.
A few of the spots are arguably interchangeable.
1 Crisp
2/3 Barton/DeJesus
4/5 Willingham/Matsui
6/7 Kouzmanoff/Suzuki
8 Ellis
9 Pennington
reverse splits?
i thought he had found a new way to stretch for the throws at 1st base.
Hilarious!
LOL! Barton is great at stretching to increase the likelihood of an out, but you really went there!
Byron
by DoomandGloom on Jan 25, 2011 1:03 PM PST up reply actions
Wait.
Which one’s the Milky Way?
-Cindi
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Late for the prom
I wanted to post this to the original article but I’m a newbie so I had to wait …
The last article on Barton’s splits neglected to mention one important comp, which is Ichiro. Career splits:
Vs. RHP .327/.374/.802
Vs. LHP .340/.380/.814
Granted, these are awesome numbers on both sides, but perhaps Daric’s approach is similar to the way Ichiro keeps his hands back so long, lets the ball get very deep, and rarely spins his hips for a ‘power’ swing.
Funny that Sweeney doesn't hit LHPs well at ALL,
considering those principles apply a lot to him too.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Thanks for following up on this, Dan
And thanks for the new data source, Sleepingcobra. Why don’t you post cool shit like this on Scout? ;)
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