Rangers Close To Signing Adrian Beltre? (Or Not?) (or they do!)
Update, 10:00 PM Tuesday: Rangers signed Beltre to a 6 year, $96 million dollar contract. - Zonis
It looks like the Rangers might be on the Frank Thomas, I mean, Verge of signing Adrian Beltre.
via MLBTradeRumors:
1/2/11, 6:52pm: Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes reports that the two sides are close to agreeing to a deal (link in Spanish). An agreement "appears imminent" according to one of Rojas' sources, while another tells him it will "probably" be a five-year contract with an option for 2016.
Update, 8:00am Monday: The Rangers may not be aware of this "agreement," as they don't seem to think there is one. -Nico
Getting Beltre would be a logistical problem for the Rangers, as it would require them to make Michael Young very mad by either shifting him to 1B or DH, but it would certainly improve their team quite a bit, making them even clearer favorites for the AL West. In some ways, it would have been better for the Angels to sign him, as the Angels would gain on us, but become equal or slightly less, whereas the Rangers just jump farther ahead. Then again, the Angels have a black hole at 3B equivalent to the A's black holes at Corner Outfield last year.
The good news is that the signing of Adrian Beltre may likely remove the Rangers from signing Vlad Guerrero or another DH if they move Young to DH and play Davis at 1B (good thing they traded Justin Smoak!), though its also possible that they could move Young to 1B and sign Guerrero or Jim Thome.
I really, really hope that talks fall apart, as Beltre remaining in the AL West is bad news since he refuses to play for the A's. I was really hoping that he would somehow end up with a 'mystery' team, such as the Cardinals, and go to the NL.
Speculate away on terms.
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At this point I figured it would be Rangers or Angels
But yeah, I’d prefer the Angels. Assuming Beltre is healthy and producing reasonably well, he’s probably a 2 win upgrade over Young if you take Young’s glove off the field.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 2, 2011 8:21 PM PST reply actions
He alone probably wipes out any gains the A's made...
But hey… we might sign Qualls!
I would prefer Beltre to land with Texas than the Angels.
Although he does represent a significant offensive boon, the loss of Lee and whomever he is replaced by, will likely hurt them more than Belre will help. That sentence was screwy. Anyway, I think Beltre would be scary in LA with the Angels’ pitching staff. I am not convinced Colby Lewis and CJ Wilson will replicate their 2010 seasons and there is a big drop-off in their staff after that. If Texas is paying him anything close to the 80-90 mil that is being reported, Oakland was likely out of the bidding weeks ago
I'm more concerned that RotoWorld seems to think that
we’re still after Okajima!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
This is better for us than the slegnA getting him
Texas has always been able to mash but their pitching is obviously not as good this coming season.
Defense = Better Pitching
Doesn’t Beltre make their pitching a lot better?. Left side IF defense would be pretty scary with Beltre + Andrus
by Colorado Fan on Jan 3, 2011 11:16 AM PST up reply actions
Brandon Webb must be happy.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 3, 2011 11:20 AM PST up reply actions
Brandon Webb
may or may not come back OK from his injuries.
I would not pin my hopes too much on him if I were a Ranger fan.
Luckily they don't have to.
They have more depth at starting pitcher than we do.
We’re pining our 5th starter hopes on McCarthy, Harden, Cramer, etc.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 3, 2011 11:27 AM PST up reply actions
I am banking on Colby Lewis
pirching closer to the old version but that may be wishful thinking.
I still think we have to upgrade the offense and maybe we have to give up some good pitching to get it done. Who knows?
Do we have anyone we can part with that won’t affect the ML pitching?
I don’t follow the minors much
In short, no.
None of the prospects we have could get anything significant. Or, perhaps more accurately, none of the prospects we have that could get something significant are prospects we could afford to part with. The ones that are… we’ve already traded away for Willingham and DeJesus.
The A’s basically need upgrades at 3rd, SS, CF, and C. Obviously, the latter 3 positions will be nearly impossible to upgrade. That leaves 3rd, but our last, realistic chance of upgrading that position is all but gone.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 3, 2011 11:58 AM PST up reply actions
Oh good, another Adrian Beltre fanpost.
That is all.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
This
I’m really starting to miss….The consistent Jack Cust strikes out too much and has a low BA fanposts….
by OnlybuyBeaneJerseys on Jan 2, 2011 9:38 PM PST up reply actions
Memorable walks
Cust definitely had some clutch base-on-balls — I’m going to miss those exciting at bats.
Philly Chicks
Dig Warning Track Power
Let's play two.
I will miss all the end of game strike outs
Off the top of my head I can think of 6
"Like I said, it’s like me giving you a high-five and chest bump after you hit for the cycle against the kid in the wheelchair." Vacafan on May 14, 2010
by adragon on Jan 3, 2011 10:49 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Jack Cust played in about 180 losing games for the A's
He would have ended about 1/10 of those (I’m assuming he got pulled periodically for pinch runners/defensive subs).
If he hadn’t struck out to end in about six of those, one might well wonder what the hell he was doing at the plate in those at-bats and why it was so different from what he did the rest of the time. (Well, except that 18 at-bats is a ridiculously small sample any way you look at it.)
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
by PaulThomas on Jan 4, 2011 1:50 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
You and your silly numbers
.
PxP: Self-promotion - How it works, Bunting, Pitch Counts, Managing, Run Expectancy, Streaks, Coors Effect, Cust vs. Matsui
I think your 1/10 is wrong
Since his OBP was so much better than the rest of the non-Barton team.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I wonder if this would be the most posts ever on AN about one
player who will likely not wind up in green and gold.
by Tyler Bleszinski on Jan 2, 2011 9:39 PM PST up reply actions
But he might!
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 3, 2011 3:08 AM PST up reply actions
see Raphael Furcal
"Like I said, it’s like me giving you a high-five and chest bump after you hit for the cycle against the kid in the wheelchair." Vacafan on May 14, 2010
by adragon on Jan 3, 2011 10:54 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I've now been able to convince myself that Beltre will be a non-factor
Due to injury and offensive regression…
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
Deep in my heart I know he won't sign with the A's
but I still have that small hope that I can’t let go of that he will….
"You need to get real!"
I know, it's hard
But I’m over it.
Good riddance to bad rubbish…
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Jan 3, 2011 12:12 AM PST up reply actions
it gets WAY easier
if you cast your mind back to 2006, and exactly who the M’s 3B was whilst we were destroying them to the tune of 17-2.
Silence s'il vous plait!! Vous ne voyez pas que je suis en train de se masturber?!?
by emperor nobody on Jan 3, 2011 12:23 AM PST up reply actions
I'm on board with the offensive regression, but why injury?
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 3, 2011 3:08 AM PST up reply actions
A hunch
I have absolutely nothing to point to as proof, just karma biting him in the ass…
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Jan 3, 2011 9:56 AM PST up reply actions
Wow...front and now back!
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 3, 2011 11:36 AM PST up reply actions
What exactly has he done wrong so far to incur bad karma?
Other than trying to get the best contract he can but every free agent tries to do that.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 3, 2011 11:38 AM PST up reply actions
He doesn't wear a cup
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 3, 2011 11:42 AM PST up reply actions
He's pissed me off
And, IMO, that’s enough.
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Jan 3, 2011 6:29 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
how about history
"Like I said, it’s like me giving you a high-five and chest bump after you hit for the cycle against the kid in the wheelchair." Vacafan on May 14, 2010
by adragon on Jan 3, 2011 10:56 PM PST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
One factor that concerns me
One of the reasons I think Beltre has such a big season in Boston is that he was surrounded by really good hitters. That would also be true in Texas, so the offensive dropoff that would almost certainly happen in Oakland or Anaheim might not happen with the Rangers – at least not right away.
paging PT...
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones."
-BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Jan 3, 2011 12:42 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz aren't good enough for you?
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 3, 2011 3:09 AM PST up reply actions
...
in Boston … he was surrounded by really good hitters. That would also be true in Texas
m*****f***ing c***s***ing peanut butter and jelly!! f*** f*** f***!!!
Ugh. I should have RTFC better.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 3, 2011 6:08 AM PST up reply actions
My eyes glaze over when I read about "lineup protection" too
Newsflash: MLB pitchers try to get each MLB hitter out every at bat.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Jan 3, 2011 10:58 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
I've seen a whole lot more announcers talk about it than I've seen it actually happen.
I didn't read the statement as about lineup "protection", but rather "production".
One of the big Cust defenses was that his numbers would have been even better had there been better people around him, yada yada yada.
"We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are."
~ Anais Nin
Really?
I seriously doubt anyone who believes that lineup protection doesn’t exist would make that argument for Cust.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Well, his RBIs would go up if he was hitting after better players
And his Rs would go up if he was hitting before better players
(incidentally, that’s why those are bad stats)
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
That's what I was getting at.
"We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are."
~ Anais Nin
I agree, what the hell is an IBB?
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
And, of course, IBBs are more likely when the person hitting after you is bad
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
apparently the Rangers and Boras/Beltré are talking
but nothing is imminent, according to T. R. Sullivan, who has quotes from Nolan Ryan in his article.
According to the article Beltré is seeking a contract for six years at $14-16 million per year. That seems to be just a summary of what we’ve already read about what he is seeking in a new contract. Nothing I’ve seen indicates that Boras/Beltré would accept less than $85 million total guaranteed, or less than five years guaranteed.
I doubt if anyone – including the A’s – has offered anything close to $85 million so far.
by OaklandSi on Jan 3, 2011 3:16 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
I Wish We Were Broke...
…like Texas!
"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King
They have a crazy-insane TV package with their regional sports channel.
They aren’t going to be hurting for money anymore.
by LoneStranger on Jan 3, 2011 11:43 AM PST up reply actions
The Rangers were never really broke.
Their former owner was very broke, and his sports ownership group was genuinely bankrupt. The bankruptcy of the Rangers was financial jiggery-pokery related to that. The team itself is just fine financially.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Yes.
Without going into all the gory details, the basic idea is that Hicks’ creditors (ie, Monarch, a predatory hedge fund that had bought up most of Hicks’ debts) were trying to get their hands on whatever Hicks assets they could get, including the Rangers. More precisely, they wanted the sale of the Rangers to yield the maximum possible return to creditors, whether that meant selling to the highest (but non-MLB-approved) bidder or even breaking up the team.
But of course MLB doesn’t want any outsiders interfering in MLB business. Therefore MLB wanted to give the Rangers a loan (“interim financing”) with which to pay off all Rangers creditors, so that only MLB had any claim on the Rangers. The separate bankruptcy was to keep the baseball club separate from the rest of Hicks’ empire. MLB had to get approval from the bankruptcy court in order to make the loan, and they won that fight.
The point is that the loan was a protective move by MLB, not a bailout for an ailing club. The Rangers were always a healthy asset, and now that they have been successfully sold, that interim financing will be settled. (I imagine it was already settled in the course of the sale to Greenberg/Ryan, but I don’t know if that information is public.)
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
There have been...
I doubt if anyone – including the A’s – has offered anything close to $85 million so far.
…some AN members who either have or have come damned close. I’m not sure if they’re using their own checkbooks though. ;)
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 3, 2011 4:46 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Yes, and there also have been some AN members who want to open the checkbooks even more for Cliff Lee.
Whose checkbooks are they using?
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 3, 2011 11:31 AM PST up reply actions
in a quirky coincidence Iam using Scott Boras...lol
shhh, don’t tell him
"Like I said, it’s like me giving you a high-five and chest bump after you hit for the cycle against the kid in the wheelchair." Vacafan on May 14, 2010
by adragon on Jan 3, 2011 11:01 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
yes another false report
Lets see a article about the Angels not going to up their bid then a rumor comes out the rangers are close to a deal. Sounds like Boras is starting the rumors again to drive up the price. If Young is traded then A/s fans should worry but not until that time.
When did Beltre refuse to play for the A's?
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jan 3, 2011 5:17 AM PST reply actions
He refused to play for the A's for the amount of money the A's offered
Would indeed be a more accurate statement
by totoum on Jan 3, 2011 5:32 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
It was him
ignoring the first offer he received, which was also much lower than he was hoping for. I don’t think he can be faulted for that, and as for the improvements the A’s have made on that offer it seems that none of them topped the 70 mil that the Angels offered him.
And as for last year, I’m not sure what we offered him, but if it was 1-2 years rather than 3-4 you also can’t fault him for preferring to play in Boston with a dangerous lineup and twice the fanbase that could be offered in Oakland.
"The world is your oyster, but you're allergic to shellfish" -Apathy and Other Small Victories
by IChaseFrisbees on Jan 3, 2011 9:14 AM PST up reply actions
Well the years were what he really wanted
And it looks like he’s going to get them, so it worked out for him. That’s good enough for me, I think he less shunned Oakland and more hoped to have a monster season on a good team and cash in for better than 3/24.
A contract that would expire when he’s 34 (that’s where our 3/24 would have left him, right?) I can see being less appealing than one that carries him into his age 36 season. At 34 I doubt he would get anything other than 1 year deals until he retired, but that’s just my opinion, I have no evidence or support for that. He’s gotten himself what I imagine he thinks is more security and better money for those 2 years than 1 year deals would have given him.
"The world is your oyster, but you're allergic to shellfish" -Apathy and Other Small Victories
by IChaseFrisbees on Jan 3, 2011 2:44 PM PST up reply actions
Draft Pick Random FYI
The A’s 2nd-round pick is currently the No. 65 overall in the 2011 draft. This is a good link to check out, maybe even bookmark.
Nine free agents with compensation attached to them remain. If all nine signed with different teams than they ended with last year, the A’s second-round pick falls down to No. 74.
Type B:
Aaron Heilman
Kevin Gregg
Trevor Hoffman
Felipe Lopez
Adam LaRoche
Type A:
Beltre, Pavano, Soriano, Balfour
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
Forgot Qualls, type B.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jan 3, 2011 6:02 AM PST up reply actions
Spot feels better now
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 3, 2011 6:09 AM PST up reply actions
Better them than the slegnA
I’m betting on regression from their current crop of pitchers, and Beltre roughly makes up for that if they add him in plus maybe one win. Subtract Lee, and a non-career year from a DH, and it’s not looking bad for us.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
I think it might have been Nico
But someone had a post defending Lewis, claiming that after his seasons and Japan and last year we shouldn’t be doubting him anymore. I’m in that boat, he seems legit, it just takes some people longer (Cliff Lee, right?)
"The world is your oyster, but you're allergic to shellfish" -Apathy and Other Small Victories
by IChaseFrisbees on Jan 3, 2011 9:16 AM PST up reply actions
yeah maybe
CJ Wilson is target #1 for regression, IMO. Never pitched 100 innings before, then pitched 200+ last year. Through either regression or injury, I’m thinking he’s less of a factor in 2011 for them.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 3, 2011 9:38 AM PST up reply actions
And IIRC (yes, I could check, but I won't at the moment)
his peripherals made him look a bit like a LH Cahill in 2010.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
I agree with this
I think Lewis is for real, perhaps a bit of regression but not much.
Wilson, though, I have my doubts about. IIRC, he petered out at the end of the year too…
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Jan 3, 2011 10:04 AM PST up reply actions
Agree
on all counts. Wilson will be far from a sure thing this season.
"The world is your oyster, but you're allergic to shellfish" -Apathy and Other Small Victories
by IChaseFrisbees on Jan 3, 2011 10:15 AM PST up reply actions
This ignores the fact that our own pitchers are an even higher risk for regression.
Wilson’s stats were very much in line with his peripherals. The Rangers also have a very talented crop of young starting pitchers that are ready/close to ready. Lee is their biggest loss, but they’ve already made up for it by having non replacement level players at first and catcher, unlike last year. There are also plenty of DH options left on the market (like Thome) who are looking more and more cheap as many teams already have acquired a DH.
You can rationalize that Beltre isn’t a significant addition for the Rangers, if well, you have them having a lot of things going wrong for them, like you do here. Otherwise, there is no use pretending: it’s far worse for the team already of you by 3 wins to acquire a 3 win upgrade, than it is for a team 3 wins behind you to acquire that upgrade.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 3, 2011 11:20 AM PST up reply actions
Right, but his ERA was pretty much in line with his FIP.
I’m not saying I don’t expect any regression, just that it won’t be as much as we hoped for. And if you think Wilson is going to regress a lot because of xFIP, you can’t be too happy about the gulf between quite a few of the A’s pitchers’ ERA and xFIP.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 3, 2011 11:37 AM PST up reply actions
When counting the defense and ballpark for both teams
I think Wilson’s a bigger candidate for regression than Cahill based solely on xFIP on ERA. I haven’t done a full study, but off the cuff, that seems right to me. IOW, Cahill’s ERA will likely be lower than his xFIP because of the defense behind him.
Wait….does xFIP have a ballpark adjustment? I don’t think so…..
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
I think the Rangers are likely to have a better defense than the A's next year, to be honest.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 3, 2011 12:32 PM PST up reply actions
(assuming Beltre signs)
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 3, 2011 12:32 PM PST up reply actions
Really?
The A’s UZR was 20 runs better than the Rangers. Even assuming Beltre signs and the A’s have a hefty dose of regression…I don’t see how that can work.
Michael Young was terrible though (-5.4)
Say Beltre has a Kouz 2010 year and Barton falls 5 runs… that’s almost all of it right there. Neither of those things are crazy.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 3, 2011 1:45 PM PST up reply actions
see below
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Of course its worse to go to a division rival
No one is debating that. What I do think, is that the A’s infield defense is staying intact, and despite its own regression, is going to be above-average. The Rangers’ was worse by about 18 runs or so last year. Even if you assume that a lot of that difference was due to Michael Young’s suckiness (and Beltre would replace him to Kouz’s level at least), the A’s still play in a much more pitcher-friendly park for 81 games. That’s where I think the gulf between ERA and xFIP becomes much less ballyhooed than some believe.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 3, 2011 12:15 PM PST up reply actions
Right, I'm only disputing your assertion that it's better for the Rangers to get him than the Angels.
Wow, the Rangers were only 20 runs worse than us defensively? Damn, that really sucks (for us) considering that Beltre over Young is pretty much 20 runs improvement already and that guys like Andrus had only an average defensive year last year (according to UZR) and that pretty much every A’s fielder had career years with the glove….
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 3, 2011 12:26 PM PST up reply actions
Well, if you agree with this
Haren + Weaver + Santana > Cahill + Anderson + Gio > Wilson + Lewis + Hunter/Holland (in 2011)
Not sure if you do, though… anyways, that’s why it bothers me more that the slegnA would get him as opposed to Texas. I sort of also assume that Napoli will actually play next year, and figure on 4 WAR from Morales…
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 3, 2011 12:44 PM PST up reply actions
I do agree with that although I'd argue that Texas and Oakland's pitching staff is probably pretty close.
But do you agree that Texas, overall, is currently better than Oakland and Oakland is currently as good if not better than Anaheim? If so, then I think it’s hard to make a case that it’s better for Beltre to become a Ranger than an Angel.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
One could argue that we are relying on something to go wrong with the Rangers anyways
And this doesn’t change that. We need their pitching to suck or Hamilton, Cruz & Kinsler to get hurt again to be able to compete…
The difference between being 3 games worse than the Rangers than 6 games worse is not negligible.
It’s the difference between, say, hoping for a “realistic” amount of things to go wrong instead of hoping for nearly everything to go wrong.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
I expect...
The Kansas City Royals to sweep in and sign him to a 6 year/$115M contract after furious bidding breaks out between the Rangers, Royals, Angels, Astros, Marlins, Mets, Giants and Hiroshima Carp.
In other news
Adrian Beltre has fired Scott Boras as his agent and hired superagent DON NOMURA!
He is currently asking for “Vernon Wells type money”.
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Jan 3, 2011 10:06 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I hope
he enjoys getting dominated by Anderson, Cahill, Gio and Co.
by Dub_TC on Jan 3, 2011 8:37 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
I hope
A’s pitchers do a better job against him this year than they did last year.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I tend to believe the Rangers' side of this rumor more
in that nothing is imminent. I’ve said it before, but Boras wants to drum up as much noise and rumblings of AL West interest for Beltre as he possibly can in order to get the highest possible contract. Texas was really the last (non-Seattle) team in the AL West that didn’t have an “omg Beltre has offer, could sign super soon!” rumor linked to them, so it was only a matter of time.
Beltre may end up signing with the Rangers, but I would be surprised if he does so any time soon.
Thar she blows!

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
by Nick on Jan 3, 2011 9:07 AM PST reply actions 3 recs
recc-ed.
The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus
by The Dogfather on Jan 3, 2011 6:06 PM PST up reply actions
AN = Ahab.
The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus
by The Dogfather on Jan 3, 2011 9:58 PM PST up reply actions
Beltre = the white whale
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I think those are the Angels fans.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
The perception differences here will be interesting...
Beltre will probably hit much better in Texas than in Oakland, so when all is said and done, many A’s fans will whine that Beane should’ve offered more money to get Beltre because he hit really well over the course of his contract.
We know that WAR will be the key stat as it takes into account park adjustments (I think). So the stat heads won’t be fooled. It’ll be the media and the casual fans who will be mad that Beane let another big free agent slip away.
If the A’s do end up signing him, those same fans will talk about how terrible the deal is because Beltre will probably only hit 100 HRs over a 5 year period for Oakland, though, again, stat heads won’t be fooled.
I think that Beltre could approach Hall of Fame status if he plays 5 years in Texas. I’m not saying he’d get in – mostly because the voters don’t take WAR into account, but he would really help himself.
I'd be surprised if Beltre gets serious HOF consideration even with five excellent years in Texas
Last of the Ninth - Photography
According to fangraphs.com he has accumulated a WAR of 50.8...
If he gets just 3.5 WAR per season, that’s 68.3 for his career. And if he’s still getting 3.5 WAR his career won’t be over.
I tend to agree that he won’t seriously be considered, but that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be.
by Brett Narloch on Jan 3, 2011 9:34 AM PST up reply actions
Andruw Jones is at 70.5 right now
He is someone who should be considered far more than Beltre, IMO.
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Jan 3, 2011 10:13 AM PST up reply actions
As should Jim Edmonds at 68.1 and Scott Rolen at 71.6
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 3, 2011 11:33 AM PST up reply actions
Agreed
I think Rolen will, but Edmonds won’t…
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Jan 3, 2011 6:39 PM PST up reply actions
Anyone out there know why Gaylor Perry hasn't cracked the HOF door?
To my mind, he would be 1st ballot candidate.
Well, there is the whole "known cheat" thing
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
none of them in the HOF, nope, no sir...
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
There are guys with 30 career WAR in the Hall of Fame too
What’s your point? I fully support keeping cheaters out of the HoF (though I don’t support keeping steroid users out as I don’t consider that to be “cheating” in the context of post-1990 baseball).
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Luckily there are plenty of BBWAA members
willing to anoint themselves judges and certified lab techs of the Steroid Age and will dole out votes according to the facts that they have observed with their intuition. Sigh.
by mk on Jan 4, 2011 6:03 PM PST up reply actions
Doctoring the ball and/or throwing illegal pitches is part of the game
always has been part of the game, and always will be part of the game.
That is, frankly, something that stats don’t show you. /joemorgan
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
It never ceases to amaze me how tolerant certain baseball people are of cheating
Run the equivalent of that gag (let’s say, stacking your deck) at a Magic tournament (I use the example only because I’m familiar with it) and you’re looking at a ban from organized play for at least a year and maybe as many as four years.
Needless to say I approve of the latter approach.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I suspect it comes from the competitive
“anything it takes to win” mentality that causes people to respect what they are supposed to abhor.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Magic players do not, IMO respect cheats
It’s clearly a cultural thing. And the culture is created by enforcement, or lack thereof. When rules are enforced, norms against breaking them develop. When they are not enforced, they are ridiculed and ignored by all but a handful of unusually high-integrity players.
Magic has its own Hall of Fame for great players, selected through a similar method to the baseball HoF (a poll requiring a supermajority of writers about the game). Those writers had the opportunity to place Mike Long, a player who was once caught deck-stacking and banned from organized play for a period of time, in the Hall. They chose not to, in the face of results which otherwise clearly called for it.
And they were right, too. He didn’t deserve to be there.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Let's talk about something fun... how about magic?

"We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are."
~ Anais Nin
yet you don't consider using illegal drugs cheating
so, there ya go.
I’ll stick with the Joe Morgan defense here.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
But you don't think steroids is cheating?
Really?!
And why? Because you suspect pretty much everyone was doing them?
IMO, you have no argument here. Cheating is cheating, and steroids are cheating.
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Jan 5, 2011 9:25 AM PST up reply actions
Steroids were not actually banned
Baseball did nothing to enforce the rule. To all practical purposes, it was not in the rulebook.
It’s incredibly unfair, particularly to people with respect for sportsmanship, to claim to have rules that you do not enforce.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Hasn't the trump card to that always been that even if it wasn't illegal in baseball...
…it was illegal in general? It may have left a loophole open to people who found ways to get the stuff, but it was still cheating in the overall sense to me.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Amphetamines.
Trump card trumped.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I think those are two pretty different situations entirely
Greenies were all but supplied to players from what I understand, no regard held for any legalities, issues of right or wrong and so on.
Players have pretty much always had to seek someone out for steroids, and I think the effects of them have been much more serious than anything greenies ever provided.
Greenies were used for an extra kick, for endurance, so someone could recover a little faster and play instead of having to rest a day when fatigued. Doing that cycle consistently is not a very good idea at all, but steroids got into deeper stuff than that with the bulking up and so on.
I’d say greenies were definitely cheating as well, especially if you were dealing with people who refused to take them just like the people who refused to take steroids, but just because the sport has a history of ignoring certain illegal substances doesn’t mean none of it’s cheating.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Steroids were all but supplied in lockerrooms like the A's in the early 2000s
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 8, 2011 6:40 PM PST up reply actions
Just read the HOF criteria: "candidates and voting shall be based upon the individual's record, ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character and contribution to the game."
I can understand why other past committee members who declined to vote for Gaylord Perry in the past may have had a problem with the meaning of integrity, sportsmanship, and character.We all know what Perry contributed to the game.
ironically, his fame is precisely because of the 10-to-1 spitter to regular pitch ratio
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 4, 2011 2:27 PM PST up reply actions
But in 5 years they might take it into account!
I could be wrong, but I consider Felix’s Cy Young this year to be a sign that the times are changing. I bet Matt Cain is flipping his shit right now about that…
"The world is your oyster, but you're allergic to shellfish" -Apathy and Other Small Victories
by IChaseFrisbees on Jan 3, 2011 9:19 AM PST up reply actions
Is that a big factor with Beltre
Is he mostly concerned about his stats and being able to make the hall of fame. He knows his stats will go down in Oakland or even LA but in Texas he should have good stats.
Well I mean he did sign with Seattle
And Safeco has always been a pitcher’s park…
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Jan 3, 2011 10:25 AM PST up reply actions
highest bid for the M's
This time he might be thinking hall of fame or world series to sign with. If the A’s over paid he would sign with Oakland but he might be thinking making it to the hall of fame since Boras compares him to Mike Schmidt.
No, I'm not saying that's what he's thinking about...
I think he’s thinking about $$$$.
by Brett Narloch on Jan 3, 2011 12:25 PM PST up reply actions
It's too early to tell.
Even if you assume this is Beltre’s last contract, it’ll still be at least 10 years before he gets onto a Hall of Fame ballot. By then, a lot of things will be different. Current trends indicate that voters are taking advanced metrics more and more into consideration. It wouldn’t surprise me if 10 years from now, BBWA members are actually valuing players appropriately, defense included. And I’m pretty sure WAR and UZR will be replaced by even more refined metrics.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 3, 2011 10:06 PM PST up reply actions
Angels Fan Here
Really hoping we get Beltre (assuming the starting pitching is what we think it is and Morales returns healthy, I think he’s the difference between winning the division and 3rd place), but I’m not optimistic. A month or so ago I compared Beltre’s WAR to HOF 3B-men. I can’t remember the exact figures, but I seem to recall that if he continued at his career average for another 5 years, he’d have a higher WAR than about half of the 3B-men already enshrined in the Hall. As it stands now, he’s already ahead of a few of them.
Thank you arrogance
I don’t mean to be so cynic, but I think I might be in the right when it comes to this argument, so here it goes. Who cares about Adrian Beltre? Apparently a lot of A’s fans. I would just like to personally thank Beltre’s arrogance for preventing the A’s from making a stupid mistake, which seems to be the du jour management model with the consistent signing of injury prone players to an injury plagued team. But, let’s get back to Beltre. Beltre, at 31, had his second, SECOND, most productive season at the age of 31. This second most productive season amassed 28 HRS, a far cry from his 48 HR campaign for the Dodgers years back. These 28 HRs came in a right handed hitter friendly ballpark, in the middle of a formidable lineup, though the BoSox were ramshakled with injuries to key players. Clearly, if the team was searching for power, this would have been a worst case scenario, especially when looking at the low homer totals that he posted in Seattle. One could argue that he would be a defensive upgrade over Kooz, but this would be slight, and this isn’t including the good clubhouse guy I suspect Kooz to be. Beltre proved that he was not a transcendent player in Seattle, in similar conditions, chances are very high he would not have been for the A’s.
As far as the potential signging to the Rangers, which I suspect is legit, since we haven’t heard anything about Beltre for a while, who cares. He automatically becomes a nuisance to the clubhouse, as this would potentially ask Michael Young, the longest tenured Ranger, to move to first base, unless Beltre was put there. I would figure, that there would be a lot of fake smiles that only winning could alleviate, but these smiles could become sour quick with egos festering beneath. Sure, Beltre could make the offense better, but would he really provide more than a young Moreland at 1b? And would this be in the best interest of the Rangers long term? More importantly, the Rangers now shift to their usual position of offensive team first, rather than balanced team. They really needed another pitcher, which they could go after for a trade during the regular season. But they are putting a lof of eggs in one basket, with reliance on Brandon Webb to make a miraculous comeback, this is an NL pitcher moving to the AL, even though its the West, after a 2 year injury hiatus, Colby Lewis having another fantastic season relative to his ability, and C.J. Wilson having contiued success after comming out of the bullpen and pitching more innings than he ever has. Also, they need Josh Hamilton to be injury free and Guerrero to have continued success at his old age.
Thank you Adrian Beltre’s arrogance. You’ve been more helpful than harmful…I hope.
by MrKuiper on Jan 3, 2011 10:53 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Why would Beltre play 1B, for anyone, especially the Rangers?
He’s one of the best defensive 3B around, and Young is mediocre at best.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
I believe he's saying
that Moreland would be benched and Young moved there, keeping Young’s WAR and replacing Moreland’s with Beltre’s.
"The world is your oyster, but you're allergic to shellfish" -Apathy and Other Small Victories
by IChaseFrisbees on Jan 3, 2011 2:46 PM PST up reply actions
Did they resign Guerrero?
I have abandonment issues. Thanks Lew.
by OptimistPrime on Jan 3, 2011 3:06 PM PST up reply actions
I'm enjoying the hysterical rationalizations (and expect many more to come).
Beltre is arrogant! Beltre’s not a good clubhouse guy! Beltre won’t help the Rangers! The Rangers will be dumb enough to play Beltre at first!
Whatever helps you to sleep at night.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 3, 2011 11:25 AM PST up reply actions
He did say "I hope"
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 3, 2011 11:35 AM PST up reply actions
I always enjoyed John Steinbeck's The Grapes of Wrath discussion I had with a japanese student
When asking about the title “Angry Grapes”,What made the Grapes so angry?
THEY HAVE TO AVOID BEING STOMPED INTO WINE
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
That sounds like a billion-dollar iPhone app
I want royalties!
by mk on Jan 4, 2011 6:05 PM PST up reply actions
Not sure if this is a rhetorical question, but I can't resist
quoting one of my favorite lyrics. The immediate source of Steinbeck’s title is the first verse of Julia Ward Howe’s Battle Hymn of the Republic:
Mine eyes have seen the glory of the coming of the Lord:
He is trampling out the vintage where the grapes of wrath are stored;
He hath loosed the fateful lightning of His terrible swift sword:
His truth is marching on.
The source for the metaphor is the Bible. Quoting Isaiah 63:1-4*.
Who is this coming from Edom,
from Bozrah, with his garments stained crimson?
Who is this, robed in splendor,
striding forward in the greatness of his strength?
"It is I, speaking in righteousness,
mighty to save."
Why are your garments red,
like those of one treading the winepress?
"I have trodden the winepress alone;
from the nations no one was with me.
I trampled them in my anger
and trod them down in my wrath;
their blood spattered my garments,
and I stained all my clothing.
For the day of vengeance was in my heart,
and the year of my redemption has come.
There are other passages alluding to grapes of wrath, including Revelation 14:10. I’ve read that Steinbeck had Revelation in mind, but I believe Howe was thinking of Isaiah. The “terrible swift sword” also comes from Isaiah (27:1).
*I’m normally a KJV guy, but that’s New International Version, which is a better fit for the lyrics. I’m not sure what version Howe was working with for her lyrics. Definitely not KJV, but not NIV either, which didn’t exist yet.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I could tell you stories 'bout the wrath of grapes.

The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus
by The Dogfather on Jan 4, 2011 4:11 PM PST up reply actions
I think he was more alluding to the translationese in the title
which is somewhat akin to taking a book entitled “Out of Sight, Out of Mind” and translating the title as “Blind Idiot.”
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Ah, I get it now.
Thanks.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I would say that Beltre would be bigger than a "slight" upgrade
His defense is consistently in the top 4-5, and I’m under the impression that Kouz over performed last year. I expect a defensive regression from him. From 2007-2010 Beltre beat Kouz in UZR even with Kouz’s monstrous 2010.
A far as the homers go, seeing as Seattle and Oakland both have pitchers parks I would expect to get the same kind of production he offered there, which may not be better than Kouz. But Kouzmanoff is really bad at getting on base. Beltre has been shaky in the OBP department, but all in all he’s had ups and downs whereas Kouz has had only downs, and it’s important to not let all this unhappiness about a lack of pop in Oakland cause us to forget the value of OBP. The most important thing is not making outs IMO.
As far as your nuisance to the clubhouse/sour feelings argument goes, I respectfully offer that you don’t have the grounds to make that claim. His Boston teammates seemed to like him even with the head thing. And yes, I expect winning would replace any sour feelings, and they would be doing a lot of it with Beltre. Even with doubts about the pitching Beltre’s defense would offset some of that, and they’re still the team that went to the WS last year.
I also don’t think Michael Young would be displeased about a move from third to first, where he would undoubtedly produce more defensively. Who would rather be known as an average third baseman rather than an above average 1b?
They don’t exactly need Hamilton injury free seeing as he won the MVP missing a month last year (and they went to the WS). Ramirez and Thome are both still on the market to replace Guerrero if need be as well.
According to other posters the Rangers also have plenty of young arms in the minors who could potentially contribute this year, so I’m not even sure they’re “relying” on Webb as much as they’re hoping to be pleasantly surprised if he produces.
So all in all, I respectfully disagree with your assessment of Beltre’s value in Texas.
I’m still on the fence about how badly the A’s need him and how much he would offer the team at what cost, but I am quite sure I would rather have him go to Anaheim than Texas.
"The world is your oyster, but you're allergic to shellfish" -Apathy and Other Small Victories
by IChaseFrisbees on Jan 3, 2011 2:39 PM PST up reply actions
First, props on your nicely drawn out argument. Here is the counter argument, not sure if that should be hyphenated or not.
I don’t believe that the differences in UZR and OBP are extremely important, as none of these stats account for the time of the game that the event happens, that being critical moments, which may be undefinable in its own right, as its up to interpretation. Of course, this is an entirely different argument.
As for the club house distraction, I was only pointing out that I believe Kevin already has nice chemistry with the current players and that Adrian would most likely be a downgrade to this mixture. Adrian Beltre is a player looking for big time money, but he is not a transcendent player. He would be thrust into that role on the team, because of his contract, and would not be able to fullfill that role. I once read a statement that the big money player on your team should also be worth attracting fans and commanding respect in the locker room, assuming the leadership position. Beltre would fail on all of these fronts, and his prior history tends to that view than the opposite. When he went to the Red Sox, you could make a list with all of your fingers, if you have a full set of hands, of players that were above Beltre in this pecking order, that served purposes throughtout the entirety of the team and not soley on the field. If the A’s are to pay a boat load of money, it needs to be for the transcendent type of player, someone who shows those type of qualities.
As far as Michael Young, he would be crazy if he wasn’t extremely displeased. Yahoo sports is reporting that he would be moved to DH and they would most likely shed Guerrero. He would play 1b from time to time and could possibly be traded, as well. The fact is, here is a player that has been in an organization his whole life. He has been productive. He was eventually moved for a younger guy. He initially wasn’t to happy about this. Now he will be moved again. It would only be natural for someone who has been a top employee to be ticked off when they have been moved for someone younger and an FA, especially when you’ve been a good soldier. I just don’t believe that it would sit well with him deep down inside, especially since he is a team leader.
As far as Hamilton, the Rangers do need him healthy. Cruz has proven to be injury prone and Hamilton is the only hitter who really can strike fear into opposing teams, another factor in baseball that can’t be mathematically quantified. Jumping to Guerrero, who is currently unsigned, Ramirez would be a horrible fit. Talk about a cancer to the clubhouse. On top of that, no roids and no more production. I don’t know what to say about Thome, but I just don’t see him being an option for some reason, just a gut feeling.
Finally, young arms are young arms. You really don’t know what they can bring till they are in the big leagues. Rarely can you rely on them for a full season. Holland was supposed to be one of the first, and he hasn’t been really all that special. Then there is the pitching in Texas factor, for whatever thats worth.
Maybe Beltre could be nice for a year, but he has more potential to be a long term burden to the Rangers and would be a disaster for the Athletics.
So…praise be to Adrian Beltre and his agent believing he is worth 80-90 million dollars.
Thank you and I also appreciate your insight!
To the first point, I believe OBP and UZR are the best way of measuring those strengths because there isn’t a feasible way to measure “clutchness” of a walk or defensive play. In the lack of a better option to measure production over the length of a season, I would rather base my decisions on OBP and UZR rather than nothing, unless you can propose a better way to measure value and therefore make decisions on who to keep and who to sign.
If you prefer to just go with WAR, Beltre has a higher average as well as several single seasons far greater than Kouz has shown (I’ll concede he’s had more time to do it and everyone thinks they’re flukes, but last year and 2004 still happened and could happen again. Kouz could have one as well, but until he proves that it’s possible I’ll take the man who’s done it.)
As for clubhouse distraction, I didn’t see that you considered how he would affect the A’s clubhouse, I only saw your estimation of what would happen to that of the Rangers. I respectfully disagree with the statement you brought up: I believe big money players should help you win ballgames. If you have the choice between 2 similarly gifted players, one who is an asshole and one who is Stan Musial, you go with the man channeling Stan. If you have only 1 option and he’s a dick, you sign him if he helps you win ballgames. I believe that many owners and GM’s would agree with me here, as evidenced by A-rod, Barry Bonds, and in other sports T.O., Ocho-Cinco etc.
I agree that I would prefer a transcendent type of player (to use your words), but not to the point that I would sacrifice potential W’s. Chemistry is important, but I do not believe that Beltre would be so bad for the clubhouse as to literally take away his on the field value, or enough of it to make him unsignable.
I agree that this move would not sit well with Michael Young based on his initial displeasure with the idea of moving. However, I would argue that competitive drive is a motivating factor for top caliber players, and that Young is competitive enough to do what’s best for the team. By agreeing to move to DH, he’s telling me that he recognizes:
1 the huge value Beltre’s defense would offer over his own
2 the benefit the team would gain with his versatility at the DH spot (think about Vad in the postseason last year)
3 his value to the team once his glove is removed from the 3b picture
Let us also keep in mind that he has moved twice for the benefit of the team, not once: the first from second to short when A-rod left, and the second time to third for Andrus (I read that somewhere, I think on MLBTR so I’m taking their word for it’s truth), so this is a man with a history of doing what’s best for team success. And after tasting the fruits of his sacrifice last year I can’t imagine him being so upset that it would ruin chemistry or impact his relations with the team (unless they start losing.)
I agree that Ramirez would be a bad fit, but I think this segment of our discussion is moot seeing as Young will almost undoubtedly be DH’ing if they sign Beltre (judging from recent MLBTR reports). I still maintain that they would LIKE the health of Hamilton (and Cruz for that matter, what team wouldn’t?), but I think you’re drastically downplaying the offensive contributions of Kinsler, Beltre, Young, Burbon (possibly, who knows?) and Andrus. Excluding Burbon, those are all studs.
I agree with your opinions about young pitching, and my only reply is that I believe it is too early to make judgments about the quality of the Texas staff. We don’t know how Rhodes will do, if Feliz will start and if so how he’ll do, whether Wilson will regress, whether Webb will be healthy, and whether the minor league arms will be productive (or if they’ll even be needed; the Texas staff could turn out to be insanely solid.) It’s too early to tell, and thus IMHO too early to say that Texas wasted their money on Beltre because of a lack of pitching that will prevent them from making another deep run.
The Yankees looked pretty good even with a thin rotation last year, and the Rangers offense looks better than theirs IMO.
Beltre “nice for a year” could very well be a WS title for the A’s, and who knows what that could do for the team’s funding, the stay in Oakland movement, stadium talks, future fan support, contract extensions, you name it. 15 million a year would be a burden on the A’s, but we dealt with Chavez and Crosby (on top of one another) and look how we’ve emerged. A WS title in 2011 and competitiveness in 2012 followed by 3 years of Beltre burden? I’ll take that any day.
If this is a tl;dr scenerio:
1 Stats are the best tools we have to make decisions, and Beltre’s are better than those of Kouz (even if they don’t take into account “when in the game they happen”)
2 Even if Beltre is bad for chemistry (not saying one way or the other) paying players is about wins first, personality second
3 Young has shifted twice before for the benefit of the team and reaped the benefits of his sacrifices
4 The offense with Hamilton and Cruz missing time is good enough that they should not suffer so far as to miss the division or playoffs entirely
5 The combined value of Beltre’s glove over Young’s and Young at DH over Vlad are significant
6 It’s too early to say yay or nay about the Texas pitching, and further it does not look so bleak as to make signing Beltre a gamble or a bad decision
7 The Texas offense with Beltre could be good enough to win through the pitching inconsistencyies
8 The A’s with Beltre look so good for the first 2 years that the next 3 are a sacrifice I would make.
I appreciate you taking the time to read my post and respond!
"The world is your oyster, but you're allergic to shellfish" -Apathy and Other Small Victories
by IChaseFrisbees on Jan 4, 2011 10:35 AM PST up reply actions
Aaaaand I mistyped inconsistencies when trying to change it from "inconsistency"
"The world is your oyster, but you're allergic to shellfish" -Apathy and Other Small Victories
by IChaseFrisbees on Jan 4, 2011 10:36 AM PST up reply actions
[ note that Young is
receptive to moving to DH to accomodate Beltre. ]
by LoneStranger on Jan 4, 2011 10:54 AM PST up reply actions
A tribute to Big Frank
Awesome job on the very detailed rebuttal. After reading the post I have to take my time and sort each argument into its own little box and take some time to digest the info.
I can see the argument for statistics in the case of obtaining a player like Scott Hatteberg. It is a great starting point to help identify potential talent from a scrap heap of players, but I believe that is where it ultimately finds its use. The statistics never tell you stuff such as which batter can make a pitcher use secondary pitches early in a game, who sets up better for whom, etc. etc. Yes, baseball does have a grand sense of individualness to it, a batter faces a pitcher, the focal point is on two players in an essential duel, a third wheel being the catcher, God being the umpire, so it is quite natural for us to look at the stats. But underlying all of these stats are other greater elements at work, at least in my opinion, that have equal if not more measure.
I think the best example I could give in this particular case is Adrian Beltre V. Frank Thomas. You said that a great season, though potentially non-existant, from Adrian Beltre could lead to a WS for the Athletics, which would then trickle into many grander events. First off, Beltre would have to have a monster season, much more monstrous than last, a la Frank Thomas in 2006. Beltre would be inserted into the line up as the percieved best hitter, biggest threat, baserunning not withstanding. But Thomas and Beltre have dynamic differences. For starters, Frank Thomas, though comming off two mediocre years, scares people. You feel his force when he comes up to the plate, at least thats how I felt watching him that season. You almost expect a homerun. He has physical size that is intimidating. Beyond that, this is a player who is a two time league MVP, an all-time great hitter, and someone who has been a leader. I believe it can’t be stated enough, and I think you and many A’s fans would agree, that Frank Thomas was a huge influence for someone like Milton Bradley, who had a fine season that year. This is why I believe chemistry is equal to the vacuumed statistical output of a player. Bradley’s playing ability could be argued to be amplified by someone like Thomas, which leads to the spill in of a Nick Swicher type who further enhances the growing synergy. There is no way that Adrian Beltre would bring any of that to the team, at all. It is mere hope that his statistics, standing alone, will help in the production of more wins.
Yes, there is no doubt that you pay people to play and help generate wins, but when you start shelling out a ton of yang, you better expect some yin in return. The Rangers sure didn’t get that with Arod, the Giants only got steroid induced home runs, though they were top of the line steriod induced homeruns, and T-O and Ochocinco create too much stress to help a team win a title. In fact, all of the examples, in which case I think you could find better ones, have failed to become winners, unless you count A-Rod, who only became a winner when he became the secondary star of a team, Jeter and established leaders being above him.
Jeter is a big money player because of all that he brings to a team, though I feel ashamed using him as my example, like I’m some east coast biased floozie. Beltre is not a big money player and if one were to make him one, this being they believe he is one, they are simply putting a ski mask on and fleecing their own self. The Rangers could be similar to the Yankees of last year as you say, but that Yankee team had some serious flaws offensively as well. Yes, the Rangers may be better off offensively, but they may be worse off. Isn’t there something to be said about the unpredicatble nature of a Vladimir Guerrero at back. Personally, Guerrero is much more imposing than Beltre, and a lot of that comes from that predictable crazy see ball hit ball nature with unpredictable results.
I concede to you that there are many values a signing of Beltre could bring to the Rangers, but not to the A’s. On the other hand, 90 to 100 million should bring you that and much more. I believe a teams best interest isn’t shopping for bargains, but shopping for great deals, which I believe Beltre is not.
by MrKuiper on Jan 4, 2011 2:37 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Well sir
I have nothing to say in rebuttal, and I guess we’ll just have to agree to disagree on the matter of Beltre’s “intangibles” as it were, as well as his clubhouse demeanor and influence on chemistry, the works.
If he goes to the Rangers I do fully expect them to win the division is all I can say.
"The world is your oyster, but you're allergic to shellfish" -Apathy and Other Small Victories
by IChaseFrisbees on Jan 4, 2011 4:38 PM PST up reply actions
Just saw on ESPN
Desportes is reporting the deal is “around 6 years-ish, 15 million dollars a year-ish”
That’s 6/90 (ish). Seems like more than I’d like the A’s to pay.
Something clever
5+ an option or 6 years
is my guess. If this is true, i’m completely ok with the A’s not signing him. I understand that this makes Texas that much stronger, but I think we are clearly better then the Angels and at least in the conversation for the AL West. I would have been ok with like 5/75 or maybe 5/70 with a $13-14mm option, but 6/90 is a pretty clear overpay IMO. With our payroll restrictions, there had to be a limit and if these rumors are true I am glad Beane stuck to those limits.
But unfortunately this means the A's are no closer to winning the West...
And DeJesus, Crisp, Ellis, and few others will probably be gone…
by Brett Narloch on Jan 3, 2011 12:41 PM PST up reply actions
Last year the Rangers won the West
but I thought we were pretty darn competitive against them
I have abandonment issues. Thanks Lew.
by OptimistPrime on Jan 3, 2011 3:01 PM PST up reply actions
Last year the Rangers were a .500 team against the American League.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Except in the playoffs
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 3, 2011 7:01 PM PST up reply actions
They were pretty sucky after like June IIRC
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
And not that great before
They did their main damage in the interleague / 12-game winning streak stretch in June. Not that they didn’t deserve their success and not that they weren’t clearly the best team in the division, but they were basically a .500 team outside of the interleague stretch of their schedule.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
And this is where the WAR projections can get interesting
so much comes down to how you play within division.
Not that WAR and other projection systems are incorrect, but a couple of bounces our way while playing the Rangers and there’s a 3 or 4 game swing right there…
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Jan 3, 2011 9:32 PM PST up reply actions
There's a reason they don't play seasons on paper.
So the heck much can happen; no one really has any idea what to expect. You’ll have to forgive me for not immediately writing off the next five seasons if the Rangers sign Beltre.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Yup
Me too
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Jan 4, 2011 1:32 AM PST up reply actions
And that reason is TV revenue.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
It's true.
Prior to games being on TV, baseball was in fact played on paper. My grandpa used to tell me great stories of the World Series between the Parchments and the Papyrus Rippers. He said he attended games 1, 2, and 7. Of course he also said he was a possessed frog and that he could fly. He couldn’t.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
6ish. Could be anywhere from a 5.5- to 6.5-year contract in that scenario, really
The ole’ “middle of the season” free agency.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jan 3, 2011 4:25 PM PST up reply actions
They are going to regret that contract.
Really, he would hit .240 in the coliseum. 6 years, in the absence of Steroids he most likely deteriorates in years 35, 36, 37 and 38 of that contract while receive 15 million per.
As if we need evidence to say stupid things Beltre....
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
about* Beltre
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
he is saying that because there are no more steroids we can't depend on Beltre maintaining high levels of production as he gets older
He is not claiming he used roids in the past. Just that 10 years ago, with roids, that contract wouldn’t look so bad.
by Billy Frijoles on Jan 4, 2011 2:34 PM PST up reply actions
I like it
I’m glad the A’s didn’t sign Beltre. It’s too big a gamble to put so much of a team’s payroll toward one player; and when you figure in Beltre’s age, I think the A’s will be better off in the long run. This may be enough to help the Rangers reach the WS for a 2nd straight year, but not winning the division would not surprise me, as stranger things have happened in the past 10 years. I like that the A’s have built their team around a core of young, talented players—especially pitching. Texas’ pitching depth does not impress me, and while the A’s have stocked their ML roster with youngins, Texas has been trading away the best of their talented AAA team. Texas is a pulled hamstring, inflamed labrum, irritated groin away from coming back to the pack.
if the A's don't get him
I suppose, ideally, I’d like the White Sox to swoop in and sign him, then trade Gordon Beckham to us for Cardenas and Outman.
Too bad we don't have Matt Spencer anymore
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 3, 2011 7:01 PM PST up reply actions
Hmmm...
I remain unconvinced Beckham will be more than a 2-3 WAR guy for the next 3-5 years.
You, or someone else convince me.
Go.
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Jan 3, 2011 9:35 PM PST up reply actions
I'm unconvinced
Kouz will be more than a 2-3 war player over the next few years either…Beckham is cheaper and under team control for longer.
Is his defense as good?
If they’re both worth the same number of WAR, but he gets his with the bat while Kouz gets his with the glove I’ll take Kouz.
"The world is your oyster, but you're allergic to shellfish" -Apathy and Other Small Victories
by IChaseFrisbees on Jan 5, 2011 8:06 PM PST up reply actions
Michael Young agrees to change positions
so Ranger can sign Beltre
http://rangersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2011/01/michael-young-agrees-to-change.html
Things appear to be lining up here...
Young’s stated willingness to DH really removes the biggest barrier to the Rangers signing Beltre.
And while I have never been a fan of signing him to a huge, long contract, I will agree that him signing with the Rangers is the worst outcome for the A’s, at least for the next couple of years.
The only redeeming feature of a Beltre-to-the-Rangers scenerio is that it would leave the Rangers as the only team apparently superior to the A’s within the division. And the Rangers still have plenty of question marks regarding pitching.
I'd like to see the A's spend the money they saved on Beltre
to get closer to the Rangers’ talent level. If not Blanton, maybe Pavano if the deal’s reasonable. Not sure who else is both available, costs basically only money to acquire, and fits the A’s needs. But the cash is there for Oakland, even if not the Beltre.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Sign Soriano
Move Bailey to set up. Any predictions on what Soriano will get?
by gambler on Jan 3, 2011 10:09 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
A lot of saves?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
If all that happens it sounds half bad
Much better than moving Young to first and getting Thome to DH.
.
PxP: Self-promotion - How it works, Bunting, Pitch Counts, Managing, Run Expectancy, Streaks, Coors Effect, Cust vs. Matsui
Worst. Beltre Thread. Ever.
Choosy Feebas choose Leopold Bloom nipples
Daring. Sensual. Invigorating. Squirrel.
BLOOM. For men.
If the eggs actually hatch I made more than a mistake, I made some scientifically impossible crime.
by DMOAS on Jan 3, 2011 9:26 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
Really?
I thought it ranked no lower than a solid 38th.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I kinda liked it
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 4, 2011 5:14 AM PST up reply actions
Rangers and Beltre close on a 6 year
$90-100mm dollar deal that could be finalized today according to Yahoo’s Tim Brown and SI’s Jon Heyman.
http://twitter.com/TBrownYahoo/status/22325046190022656
http://twitter.com/SI_JonHeyman/status/22321611663212544
http://twitter.com/SI_JonHeyman/status/22324445695709186
stupid is stupid does
That much money and more years?? They better win now because hamilton and cruz will be gone with that contract is still going. The win now mentality is with Texas. The good thing is they still have little pitching and 1 pitching injury will doom them.
Sounds now like it could be
5 years + a vesting option, but either way you slice it it’s an overpay. I’m guessing it ends up 5/80ish with a $15-16mm option. I’m glad the A’s didn’t commit this type of money to him, but it’s gonna be tough for us to hang with Texas at least the next couple seasons. I expect their pitching to regress some, but their offense is leaps and bounds better and their defense is right there with us now. We need one more bat IMO.
....and are those not the only things the team needs protecting from?
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 4, 2011 12:27 PM PST up reply actions
After the next couple of years, the current A's team is either incredibly expensive or gone
Don’t kid yourself. The Rangers may have shot themselves in the foot with this, but the bullet hit Oakland on the rebound.
The people that should be jumping for joy are Mariners fans.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
by PaulThomas on Jan 4, 2011 1:59 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
lol.
PT -—>
<—— also PT
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
by mikev on Jan 4, 2011 3:05 PM PST up reply actions 4 recs
I, for one, am fully ready to write the A's off until 2023.
Now let the games begin!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Should we ever meet in person, I owe you a drink of your choice for the great laugh this gave me.
"We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are."
~ Anais Nin
Heh.
Awww, I was kinda hoping you would come here rambling about how this is even more postulating from Boras ;)
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 4, 2011 12:27 PM PST up reply actions
Holy crap!
Way to way overbid!
The “Bidding” was at 70 million, and they jump up 20-30 million more?
"So, the A's new organizational philosophy involves adding Viking relievers? God save us all."
"Berserkers: the new market inefficiency."
-LonestarBall
The Rangers had money to spend and they recognized the importance of not only acquiring as many marginals wins as possible
but also denying AL West rivals those wins. Hence, overpay.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 4, 2011 12:03 PM PST up reply actions
Right
They seem to grasp the situation in a way that the Angels and A’s don’t. This is not about a deal that makes independent fiscal sense. Half the contract (okay, probably more like a quarter, but the point stands) is really a bribe to prevent Beltre from playing for other teams in the division.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
That the Rangers could afford to do this in no way means the A's/Angels don't grasp the situation. they can grasp all they want, but they can't compete.
It already appears to be the case that even without buying Beltre at an even more inflated overpay (at whatever $-years figure the rangers would drop out) the Angels are losing roughly $10M/year. So they’d have had to commit to (possibly) losing another, say, $20+M/year to beat the Rangers. Easy for you to do, I assume, maybe not so much for Moreno.
In the case of the A’s, they’ve already upped their payroll significantly, and upping it another $20+M/year with no likely increase in revenue (unless you believe the fans will magically flood the turnstiles just because of Adrian Beltre and a consistently winning team, and also magically become a ‘big market team’) just doesn’t make business sense.
As soon as it became apparent the Rangers were in on this game, it was over. They have $80M/year just in TV revenue to play with.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 5, 2011 8:23 AM PST up reply actions
I'd love to know how the numbers work with the Angels...
Because, as I have witnessed, their fans are incredibly fairweather.
No one was at the stadium near the end of last year. No one.
Seeing as they didn’t sign Crawford or Beltre, I suspect this year they could lose even more money as less fans show up to the park. Would they have lost less or perhaps even made money if they had made either of these signings?
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Jan 5, 2011 9:31 AM PST up reply actions
No way the A's shouldve signed him at that cost.
Seriously, that makes the Jayson Werth deal look good.
Yeah
Although I don’t believe they’ve outbid by $20-30M.
I suspect someone put in a bid that is competitive to this…
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Jan 4, 2011 9:47 AM PST up reply actions
whatever happened
i’m glad that if they’re getting him, it’s for a price that most of us felt was too high.
still wish we were talking about the cardinals though.
by mk on Jan 4, 2011 9:49 AM PST up reply actions
Heh.
This is Boras’s giant “Eff you” to anyone who thought that he misread the market, that he’ll come crawling back, that Beltre had no suitors, etc
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 4, 2011 12:05 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
He misread the market.
Texas is just dumb enough to fix his blunder for him. I bet he’s wiping sweat off his brow.
by LoneStranger on Jan 4, 2011 12:29 PM PST up reply actions
Funny how often Boras "misreads" the market only to consistently land the biggest contracts for his clients, usually out of nowhere, like he just did again.
And if the market for Beltre was three division rivals, it’s very hard to make the argument that he misread anything.
I think it’s more likely that we’re all just stupider than Boras.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 4, 2011 12:34 PM PST up reply actions
Could just be
Texas needs a win after losing out on Cliff Lee when they offered more money than NYY. Guess all that oil money hits home and they go and blow it on ten gallon hats and ballplayers like they’re going out of style.
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
actually
only other way i see it, is that the Rangers wanted to have such a large gap between their offer and the rivals to ensure the A’s/Angels wouldn’t try and find a way to meet it and spur an unlikely bidding war.
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
I don't think we're all stupider
He just lands the best free agents and therefore swings the biggest stick as their representation. Boras also had a stroke of luck in that Lee did not sign with Texas and they still wanted to make a big splash. Several things have gone right from the Beltre perspective the two weeks or so.
So, I’m not sure Boras could have done much for Bobby Crosby.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 4, 2011 12:45 PM PST up reply actions
Betting that Lee wouldn't land in Texas was a rather safe bet.
Ah, I wonder what ole Crosby is up to nowadays…I bet Japan’s looking real nice for him right about now.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 4, 2011 12:48 PM PST up reply actions
Eh, I mean, it wasn't Yankees or no one else
Lee staying in Texas was reasonably credible until a few days before Philly came along. Anyway, my point is that Boras only reps people who are really good at baseball, and therefore never loses.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 4, 2011 12:57 PM PST up reply actions
And yet quite a few of us assumed he would lose big with Beltre...
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
I want to lose and be paid 5/70
And be paid lots of money to likely suck at age 37
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 4, 2011 1:14 PM PST up reply actions
Maybe Eric Byrnes' softball team needs a SS.
"We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are."
~ Anais Nin
Ed will only allow it if he's guaranteed a starting role
by mk on Jan 4, 2011 10:41 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah... that might be a problem.
"We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are."
~ Anais Nin
Only because Crosby
couldn’t afford him.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
I wish I could misread the market like that :(
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
How's that 4 years, $50M offer looking right now?
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Yeeeeaaaahh....
I’m just going to pretend assume that the people who said that we could get Beltre for that deal (and the ones who were talking 3/48, 2/26, whatever other nonsense was out there) were just joking.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
I feel pleased with my six-year fanpost now, too.
He may end up not end up justifying it over the life of the deal, but the market did indeed reveal that 6 years, $90 was possible.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jan 4, 2011 4:49 PM PST up reply actions
I really hope we never actually offered that
That’s a dial-tone worthy offer.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 4, 2011 2:29 PM PST up reply actions
In this case it is precisely what "we" (well, some of "us", that is to say, some members of AN) suggested offering
If you actually meant the Oakland Athletics, no, there’s no evidence they ever offered something that insultingly low.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
6/76 is the latest figure
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
As much as I dislike the guy...
…I have to tip my hat to Boros… again. The guy is good. Sigh.
"We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are."
~ Anais Nin
This one really shocks me the most
I mean, how the hell he got that figure astonishes me…
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Jan 5, 2011 9:33 AM PST up reply actions
cool.
They can have him. He is insecure hitting in a pitcher’s park anyways.
The Kouz is fine. Plus Carter will become our power threat.
by Billy Frijoles on Jan 4, 2011 2:38 PM PST up reply actions
Ok so no Adrian Beltre...
Anyone have any good info on Ian Stewarts defense at 3B? Would Colorado even be looking to move him?? He’s really the only 3B that might be available (aside from Wright) that I could get excited about the A’s aquiring. I followed his bat pretty closely coming up through the minor leagues, but don’t recall much regarding his defense at 3B and it’s hard to tell from his UZR #‘s as he hasn’t played enough to accumulate a large sample size. Could Kouzmanoff and a relief arm get it done? They could then use Kouz at 3B and slide Jose Lopez over to 2B. I’m not very good at setting up trades with good value for both teams…
I think I would prefer Kouz
I’m hoping for an offensive bounceback and expecting a defensive regression, but the defense will still be top 10. IIRC he’s been in the top half of 3bmen by WAR every year of his career, even with bad OBP and such. At least he’s consistent.
"The world is your oyster, but you're allergic to shellfish" -Apathy and Other Small Victories
by IChaseFrisbees on Jan 4, 2011 9:17 AM PST up reply actions
I'm ok with Kouzmanoff
being the 3B in 2011, but I honestly don’t expect much of a bounceback from him. He’ll probably end up with somewhat better offensive numbers (maybe .260/.300/.420), but his defensive numbers will more then likely take a hit leaving us with close to the same production we got last year. Not a horrible thing, but I really think we need another hitter in this lineup and Stewart would be a good bet to come in and give us a .335-.350 wOBA compared to Kouz’s .300-.315. I’m sure there would be a drop off in defense, but i’m just thinking (hoping) that the upgrade on offense will be greater then the downgrade on defense. I’m also a fan of Stewart’s offensive upside.
The A's need to throw a mid level prospect at Chris Davis
The guy can flat out take a huge swing and miss and sometime connect – Chris Davis would be a great buy low right now. With Moreland and maybe Young locked at 1B/DH or even more so if Vladdy comes back to Texas – Chris Davis could be bought for maybe a mid level prospect or a Zig or Wuertz. The guy has potential to be a Adam Dunn type power (not he BBs) – Strike out machine to sat the least, but if bought at a cheap price, he could be a nice fit as 3B platoon with Kouz and fill on on days off
Lance "you sunk my" Blankenship
He's a terrible 3Bman
His potential offensive value would absolutely be outweighed by terrible defense.
Obviously, errors are a poor way to measure D, but a guy with a .911 fielding percentage over 199 games at 3rd is just terrible.
You want a guy who makes errors literally 10% of the time on your infield when Cahill’s pitching?
All I can say about stats is…
SCOTT BROSIUS!!
by stranahanahan on Jan 4, 2011 10:52 AM PST up reply actions
If you want to set up a fair trade, Rule #1 is "don't make it involve two guys who play the same position."
The odds that each team will prefer to have the other team’s player are so minute that it’s a possibility not really worth worrying about.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I think its alright to include a player that plays the same position
as long as you adhere to the rule that the player you are putting in there is a replacement for the other team, not a centerpiece. For example, the Grienke trade, where the Royals got Escobar, but gave the Brewers (though who knows why they wanted him) Betencourt to replace him. But, Betencourt was NOT the centerpiece, he was ancillary.
"So, the A's new organizational philosophy involves adding Viking relievers? God save us all."
"Berserkers: the new market inefficiency."
-LonestarBall
More to the point is if the two players are at
a different stage in development.
I think it’s pretty common when a contender team trades with a rebuilding team for a star position player, they’ll give up a younger guy who can fill the same spot for the rebuilding team’s future.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
My reasoning for including Kouzmanoff
is that the Rockies had interest in Kouzmanoff earlier in the offseason, and with Colorado losing Stewart they would need a replacement. I figured since they are looking for relief help, and Kouzmanoff would be a solid replacement for Stewart, a package including Kouz and a reliever ready to step straight into their bullpen and contribute might be something they could be interested in.
IMHO
Chris Davis = Dan Johnson type of guy. If he’s not hitting in Texas what makes you think he’ll hit in Oakland?
I guess I’d be okay with Stewart but I wouldn’t bend over for him, I especially wouldn’t deal good prospects when Kouz is already worth 2.5 WAR.
Just my opinions, and maybe I’m putting too much stock into WAR because Kouz’s numbers do look really bad. But if it’s accurate than he’s a decent player, right?
"The world is your oyster, but you're allergic to shellfish" -Apathy and Other Small Victories
Yes
In fact, Kouz being decent is one of the arguments that some had for not pursuing Beltre at all.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 4, 2011 11:00 AM PST up reply actions
I think Kouz being decent is certainly a reason to not get all worried that we didn't sign Beltre.
It’s certainly a reason to pursue him though.
by LoneStranger on Jan 4, 2011 11:11 AM PST up reply actions
Well said
"The world is your oyster, but you're allergic to shellfish" -Apathy and Other Small Victories
by IChaseFrisbees on Jan 4, 2011 11:42 AM PST up reply actions
I just heard an ESPN news flash on the radio
It said Texas has not officially signed any deal with Texas yet but that Michael Young was quoted as saying that he wouldn’t mind a move to 1st base if he needed to.
Whatever, I’m just over it and I’m ready to move on to other things…..
Have fun in that Texs heat bitch!
"You're early, but hang around; we'll have a fight for you sooner or later."
-John "Blue Moon" Odom
Not bitter on Beltre
If the rumors swirling out of Texas are true, it is better, in my opinion, that the A’s passed on the money trying to sign Adrian Beltre. Also, I believe Beltre is better off ending up in Texas instead of Los Angeles for the Angels, who have superior pitching than Texas. Beltre does more damage to the A’s in LA than in Texas. If Kouzmanoff can return to his power days in San Diego, then he is within range of Beltre, who I don’t think would have thorougly thrived in Oakland over five years. Beltre is a good player, but I have trouble paying him the money Texas apparently is willing to pay. I have opinions about other areas of need for the A’s and how to improve, but I’ll refrain.
i'd also like to believe
that Kouz will improve with time in the coliseum. He switched leagues and parks, so perhaps he’ll take a more targeted approach at the plate.
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
Bad off-season in terms of game-thread rebuses.
It was bad enough to miss out on Ewok-Uma. Now we won’t have bell-tray either.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
there's always
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 4, 2011 2:54 PM PST up reply actions
If we keep Kouz
we can still use that really long GIF. That’s a plus.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
W.A.R. Vs Reality Question
In the days since it became pretty clear that Oakland was “out” on Beltre I’ve seen a ton of posts with comments like “Well, the shift in W.A.R. just made all of Beane’s moves pointless”, “Hello third place”,“The West belongs to Texas”, etc. etc.
To the statological out there, are there numbers available that show the success rate of such projections?
The 87 Twins, 90 Reds, 03 Marlins (I think I got the year right) and of course 2010 Giants jump out as teams that were far from being projected as World Champions (and likely not even playoff teams) yet walked away with the crown.
Over a 162 (not to mention as many as 20 playoff games) so many things can happen to change the course of a season, I just can’t get too worked up over “the enemy” picking up one guy.
Injuries, a little luck, regressions and break throughs are what shape an MLB season and I think the moves Beane has made this year have done enough to give the team a fighting chance, and when I head out to the ballyard, that’s really all I can ask for.
Sorry I guess that was 1/4 question, 3/4 fanboy rant, but seriously, does anyone know the success rate of projections?
by AsFan72 on Jan 4, 2011 4:13 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Can't answer your question, but I 3/4 love you.
On my list of “improvements that have made us dumber,” WAR is up there. Your second and third to last paragraphs say it all.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Really?
I thought we should just anoint the Rangers division champs for the next few years and just be done with it.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Oh we can.
I’m targeting 2023, and just hoping they deal Barton, Bailey, Anderson, Cahill, and Gio this year to get some really good A-ball players who can be dealt in a few years for even better A-ball players who might be ready when we have any hope of being good again. If that fails, then I think we should rebuild.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 4, 2011 5:45 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
JeansBait
I won’t bite.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jan 4, 2011 5:49 PM PST up reply actions
It's fairly sad when the guy who runs the blog is also being a troll on it.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
by mikev on Jan 4, 2011 6:17 PM PST up reply actions 4 recs
It's January. Deal with it.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Classy response.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
It's January. Deal with it.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
It's January. Deal with it.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
You just said that to yourself, you idiot.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
It's January. Deal with it.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Oh, goody!
I’m now not the only one who answers my answer to my answer…
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 5, 2011 8:30 AM PST up reply actions
A troll with a persecution complex
Clearly this is only a stupid comment because it’s the off-season U GUYZ
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Is it a complex if trolls really are persecuted?
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
For example, I'm Jewish
and my people have definitely been persecuted (trolls, I mean).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Well, before this deal the Rangers were at about 50% to win the division
and they just improved by ~2-3 games on the whole rest of the group, so probably more like 67% now.
They went from being plurality favorites to being heavy favorites. They’re now probably the third-most-likely team to make the playoffs next year after Boston and Philly.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
CAIRO had us at about 25% before.
We’re probably comfortable below 20% now.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Sounds about right to me, good insights.
I’m clinging to an extremely small silver lining that a.) the Rangers certainly didn’t get a discount, and b.) they had to give up their first-round draft pick.
I think Texas is now about even talent-wise with the Yankees and Rays, but I would agree with your assessment that the Rangers are nonetheless the third-most likely to make the playoffs, because the Yanks and Rays have to fight each other and the AL’s best paper team.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jan 5, 2011 1:16 AM PST up reply actions
Two thoughts from the Beltre signing news:
He looks incredibly smart for taking that one-year Boston deal. You could probably count on one hand how many free-agent gambles in history have ever worked out as well as that one for the player/agent.
Once again, it would be disingenuous to say that the A’s “made a terrific offer for a good free agent, and were turned down.”
The A’s didn’t come close to beating this offer. Just like they didn’t really beat any of Beltre’s offers last year, or Scutaro/Furcal…
I still think that we have yet to see the A’s dramatically “overpay”/outbid everyone else and be turned down. When they offer something absurdly high – Ben Sheets – they get their man. It has yet to be proven otherwise.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
A Peter Gammons claim:
A’s were @ 6/$76m @ one point on Beltre, so Angels were 3d highest birders in division
Per his Twitter.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Woah -- isn't that exactly what I endorsed?
If that’s accurate, then good for Billy: He made a totally good and fair offer and refused to get into a “way overpay” bidding war.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
6/76
I think I posted it. I know I thought it, and can even tell you what bush on the Cal campus, near Tolman Hall, Poochini was sniffing at the time.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Clearly you derive far more happiness from the contents of Steve Fisher's bank account than I do
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I think you may be confusing him with John Forbes.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Highly unclear whether that's any improvement on 5/70
In any case, it’s blown out of the water by what we’re hearing from Texas.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I agree it's not an improvement on 5/70 --
At the time I wrote it, the Angels had withdrawn their offer and no new offer was on the table.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
If the Rangers or A's have a ~3 year contention window
and hypothetically Beltre is only good for the first half of the contract while totally sucking for the second – can’t a 6/96 deal really be looked at like paying Beltre $32MM/year to contend during the contention window?
If so, the question becomes: what is it worth (to you? to ownership? forget not our symbiotic relationship) to take real shots at the playoffs? To jam a stick in the contention window and shoot cannons out of it at your neighbors? Is it worth paying twice the going rate?
You bet your sweet ass it is, AN.
And the even larger question, to me, ever-so-humbly, is: are we rooting for a team who is making serious grabs at the division at the expense of ending up in the red occasionally – or are we rooting for a front office who likes to pretend they’re cracking the DaVinci Code every year and billionaire ownership who loves nothing more than to perpetuate their bullshit bag lady narrative every off season, all the while the team stumbles along haplessly in the perpetual hell that is 2nd place.
The bigger question is.....
What does this do to Texas in a couple of years? Do they have the resources to carry a Yankee or Phillies type payroll? With Cruz and Hamilton coming up due in a couple of years, this type of a deal could end up being an albatross for the club.
$96 over 6? That’s insane, I don’t blame Oakland or Anaheim for not wanting any part of that nonsense.
Suggesting the A's spend any amount it takes to get him is also insane
Especially with the “You should look at it more like $32 million a year for the next three years” angle.
It’s not like the guy is Albert Pujols. He may be a key toward just getting to the playoffs at all. It’s not like he’s the final piece to a World Series winner. He’d be nice to have, but not for that amount of money or years.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Scott Boras and I have a lot in common.
The key difference being that I apparently have 30 fewer blackmail photos in my possession.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Lol
He doesn’t need dirty photos. He could blackmail every team in the division with nothing more than the threat of signing with some other team in the division. Sooner or later someone was going to crack.
It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which the agent and player have more leverage. All this talk about pulling offers, lowering amounts, etc etc was Pollyanna homer rubbish from the get-go.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Easy to say in hindsight
5/64 ($12.8 mil a year) was a fair offer, one that also represented a major risk for Oakland. Anything much above that would have been stupid (for the A’s), as the overall upgrade over Kouz (in the short term) isn’t likely to be that great, and in the long-term Beltre is likely to under-perform. People over-rely on WAR projections at their own risk.
As for the way the market played out, kudos to Boras and Beltre for being patient and getting 6/96 ($16 mil a year). Whether that was mostly attributable to skill, or whether it was Boras getting lucky and pulling a rabbit out of his ass thanks to Texas not re-signing Lee, is an open question. Even without Texas at the table, Belte’s probably would have gotten the Angel’s to overpay (although to a lesser degree), but that was never a valid reason for the A’s to overpay.
I’m glad to see Beltre break Texas’ bank and not ours, and have little doubt that they’ll regret the second half of the deal (and possibly the first half too, as it’s a decent bet their pitching will regresses).
by andyinfremont on Jan 6, 2011 12:52 PM PST up reply actions
Believe it or not, this Beltre contract only pushes their payroll into 60 million range for this year.
This is with all their recent signings (Webb, Rhodes, Torrealba, etc) included.
And with that TV deal kicking in in a few years, the Rangers seems to be in fine financial shape for the long term.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
It'll be more than that.
If you’re using Cot’s, you also need to include arbitration for Hamilton, Cruz and Wilson, which won’t come cheaply. Then add about $6 million for the other 15 players or so at the ML minimum. It’ll be more like $75-80 Million, which is still surprisingly cheap. They’ll be up to the Mariner’s level in the next couple of years if they sign Hamilton and Co. to extensions.
Ah yes, you're right.
Of course, with that 75-80 million the Rangers probably still have room to add a legit DH like Thome. But don’t tell them that…
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Thome, Branyan, or Nick Johnson would be ideal for them now.
They need a left-handed part-time DH, because Young will get probably half his at-bats there and half while being the super-utility IF.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jan 5, 2011 1:22 AM PST up reply actions
I don't think that Cruz and Hamilton are really the kinds of players you give massive long-term deals to in the first place
They’re too old and have too checkered of pasts for that. Both of them seem like year to year guys, and maybe if they’re still healthy and effective at the time of free agency you go something like 4/$80M with them. Odds are one will have faded somewhat by the time it becomes an issue.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Lol there are plenty of ill-advised massive contracts out there
The question is if the Rangers’ FO will be desperate or pressured enough to commit to it. They may even extend Hamilton before arbitration in order to avoid the massive raise he’ll get after his career year.
This billionaire stuff gets to me every time.
Fisher is an investor in the A’s. Wolff (and beane, in a minor role) is the ‘owner’- and he’s not a billionaire, and further, his wealth is tied to real estate, which hasn’t exactly done well lately, if you haven’t noticed. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if we were to get a peak under the mounds of confusing accounting that is any MLB team, that we would find that some percent of net A’s revenue each year gets paid out to Fisher as a return on his investment, leaving Wolff with even less operating cash than we might think.
It may be worth it to you, as a fan, but there are very few teams who are willing (or able) to consistently operate in the red. So, if your Texas-envy leaves you feeling shafted, I’d offer a solution: root for one of the big-market teams with 2-3 million paying fans through the turnstiles each year, or root for a new stadium, because with their current situation the A’s just. Can NOT. Compete. Against a team that is willing and able to overpay at twice the market rate.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 5, 2011 8:46 AM PST up reply actions
Your distinction between "owner" and "investor" is just semantics.
The team is owned by an ownership group. That group is a partnership. Wolff is the managing partner. There are several partners who own shares of varying sizes. Exact ownership percentages are not public information but it is estimated that Fisher owns about 75%. Wolff owns much of the rest, but minor shares are held by Beane, Crowley, and Wolff’s son. (Steve Schott also had a share at the time of the sale, but he may have divested by now.)
So sure, you can call Fisher and “investor”, but what does that mean? He really does own most of the team.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Thank you for posting this
I found it very informative!
I also agree with just ANotherAsFan as far as his last sentiment goes, root for a new stadium so that we can end all the BS. I don’t know how best to manage the team in the interim, but if the stadium got done it would undoubtedly make things easier on everyone involved, be them managing partners, financially backing partners, the GM, what have you.
"The world is your oyster, but you're allergic to shellfish" -Apathy and Other Small Victories
by IChaseFrisbees on Jan 5, 2011 8:10 PM PST up reply actions
Boras extracts too much money from the Rangers
In other news, climate scientists have produced what they say is “the most accurate computer model (for) predicting which direction the sun will rise from to date.” Read on to find out which direction it says!
NEW THREAD OPEN ON THE FRONT PAGE
Because 512 Beltre threads isn’t enough.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

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