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Sunday, Random Sunday: The Opposite of Contraction


When I read NSJ's piece on contraction, it got me to thinking. I admit, this is almost never a good thing. As you may know, my brain rarely stays on a single track and there were a lot of rabbit holes to dive into. Most of them were about why contraction is a horrible, horrible idea for the league in general. But sticking with just our Green and Gold (and potentially never Black) heroes, here are a few reasons why this specific team will never be contracted and most likely will never leave the Bay Area.

Star-divide

Exhibit A (Our Attitude)

I was born in Oakland. Not that it has anything to do with anything.

I have lived everywhere in Northern California. Hyperbolic as that statement is, I have resided at one point or another in Lemoore, Hanford, Castro Valley, San Lorenzo, San Leandro, San Francisco, Sacramento, Elk Grove, Pleasanton, San Jose, Santa Rosa and... Ah, who cares? All of this is to say that if there is one thing that binds all of us from this crazy little patch of the planet together it is that we are united in the belief that "quixotic" is a compliment. That is to say, we don't believe that dreams are impossible, even when they are improbable. I have witnessed this from Bakersfield to Windsor.

I believe this is reflected in everything from 924 Gilman (Yep, I saw Operation Ivy and Green Day before you heard of them. I have long since lost the shirt that proves it) to Facebook. From Google to Freight and Salvage. From Star Wars to the Transamerica Pyramid. In the Bay Area, and Nor Cal in general, we have dreams and we make them real. If we don't like the way something is, we make something the way it should be. If someone tells us we can't, we smile and work hard to prove them wrong.

Following the A's is really no different. We have a burgeoning groundswell of DIY media to prove it. From Athletics Nation to Athletics After Dark to Newballpark.org. Each of these outlets is a testament to the fact that there is a strong core fanbase here and it has a deep and nuanced interest in the team.

Exhibit B (Our Money)

In 2009, portfolio.com did a series of articles about potential expansion by US based professional sports leagues.The study combined the personal incomes of various metro regions, the cost of running a franchise in each of the sports and the number of existing franchises in each of these markets to come up with a score for a markets potential to support an additional franchise.

The key take away (best displayed in this chart) is that MLB requires the highest personal income ($86.7B) of all sports, soccer is the cheapest ($13.9B), the NFL and NHL were in the middle ($37.3B) and the NBA was not far behind ($36.4B). The second thing that jumped out at me was that the study found that MLB has 13 teams playing in 12 over extended markets. Care to guess which two team market is over extended? With a deficit of about $20B compared to the number of franchises and expected personal income required to support them?

If you guessed "the Bay Area" give yourself a pat on the back. But there is a catch and it was a bit confusing at first. The Bay Area had a personal income of over $370B in 2009. If you add up the expected personal income for two NFL teams, two MLB teams, one NBA team, one NHL team and one MLS team there would still be enough left over ($35B) for another MLS team, and almost enough for another NBA team.

The reason for the apparent error? Portfolio.com chose to count San Francisco/Oakland as one market (-$20.5B) and San Jose as another ($56B). When one combines the entire market, there is more than enough scratch to support all of the local sports franchises. On a related note, there is enough available personal income in New York to add five MLB teams, and enough in Los Angeles, Houston, Washington DC, and Chicago to add another team to each market.

Exhibit C (Our Numbers)

Back when MLB was in expansion (and Expos relocation) mode, they had a set criteria for markets worth exploring. It was really pretty simple. For a market to be considered it must have at least 2 million people, a largish media market that wouldn't completely infringe on other team's television rights, a strong corporate base to buy tickets/sponsorship packages and preferably a limited slate of pro sports franchises to compete with MLB for tickets.

With all of that said, they chose to move the Expos to a place that broke most of those guidelines rather than contract them and the Twins.

California, even with the recent economic struggles, is still home to more Fortune 500 companies than any other state except Texas. Both of those states have 57. The Bay Area is home to more than half of California's Fortune 500 companies.

Despite recent headlines about a mass exodus of people from California, the Bay Area still grew at about a 5% clip over the past decade. That is not as impressive as the growth in places like Charlotte, Atlanta, Houston, Dallas and Austin, but the demise of California has been greatly exaggerated. It is still the most populous state in the Union and the Bay Area is still the sixth largest metro region in the US.

When you combine these two facts it isn't hard to see that the large population and large corporate presence make the Bay Area, even as a two team market, far superior to any other option. Especially when you add in the other important factors like media market infringement and competition from other pro sports.

Wrapping it All Up

Do the A's need a new stadium? Yes, but considering Exhibit A I am pretty sure they will get one. Is the Bay Area a stretched market? Yes, but considering Exhibits B and C it isn't stretched to the point where it makes sense for the A's to leave. Are there real places for the A's to move? Sure, but not that don't already have MLB or are more stretched than the Bay Area and there are several existing markets that have much worse situations.

Does contraction, or relocation, make sense? Nope.

Comment 89 comments  |  5 recs  | 

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Excellent POV

It’s good to get grounded in reality, and MLB does enjoy the anti trust exemption, which seems like another great incentive NOT to contract.

Isn’t it about time to hear something about the ballpark from Selig?

"It's better to live rich than die rich" -- The Fat Lady

by geogrman on Jan 2, 2011 8:25 AM PST reply actions  

Yep

Bud should be speaking soon. With the NFL labor situation, the A’s would have a huge leg up on private sources of funding. If he let’s this linger, the A’s will have to compete with the 49ers and Raiders for things like naming rights and corporate ticket/sponsorship deals. I have a feeling we are about to hear something within a month or two.

by jeffro on Jan 2, 2011 12:07 PM PST via mobile up reply actions  

Hadn't considered the NFL situation

Acting now would be the most prudent thing to do especially considering either Oakland or SJ will need massive private funding that is likely to harder to come by once the Niners and/or Raiders stadiums get going after the labor situation stabilizes in the NFL.

by athletics68 on Jan 2, 2011 3:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Very interesting data on total personal income needed to support teams etc.

One caveat I’d make is that, just as you noted with San Jose + SF/Oak, there are lots of other contiguous but separately-counted metro areas that exist: actually, Sacramento isn’t so far away that folks who support the A’s won’t come to an occasional game.traffic jams are our limitng factor, just as in LA.
In other areas, though, New Englanders are quite willing to go 100 miles weekly (through snow, even) in order to watch the Pats, and even further to watch the occasional Sox game, so the Boston metro totals are much lower than the actual market totals. I think this could well be the case in the Carolinas, too, although I don’t know for sure…

"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins

by justANotherAsFan on Jan 2, 2011 8:35 AM PST reply actions  

There are a lot of caveats, for sure

In the cases you mentioned, there are a couple that are sort of notable:
1. NFL teams have a much larger radius from which to draw regular fans. I suspect that is reflected in the TPI needed within a given metro to support the NFL. Or, to put it another way, the 49ers and Raiders draw from Fresno to Sacramento every Sunday and a portion of the cost of having a team in our metro is borne by those fans. Conversely, a baseball team draws from a much tighter radius (because of the frequency of games) and the metro has a much larger portion of the cost to bear.
2. The author of the articles used Census MSAs to define a market. I would have used the CSA in areas like Boston and Charlotte. In Boston and the Bay Area that changes things significantly. In Charlotte it really doesn’t.

by jeffro on Jan 2, 2011 9:40 AM PST up reply actions  

Love it.

"Not in your wildest alcoholic nightmare would you ever imagine such events unfolding!" Bill King

by Buck Turgidson on Jan 2, 2011 9:59 AM PST reply actions  

Rec'd for awesomeness

Moving out of the region and contraction, in my mind, have always been red herrings. Just leverage to disingenuously ratchet up the anxiety level of fans and cities in order to extract a bigger, better deal.

If Pennington manages 17 HRs, I’ll vow to consume an article of clothing to achieve a humorous effect --Joey C.

by cityplANner on Jan 2, 2011 10:50 AM PST reply actions  

A’s should still make the Angels bid against themselves

by TBRMKane on Jan 2, 2011 11:26 AM PST up reply actions  

You don't think that's what Texas is trying to do?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 2, 2011 11:40 AM PST up reply actions  

If Boras leaked this it could be a hint

Or an indication that Beltre’s real number is 5/80 (same average as 6/96)

"Not in your wildest alcoholic nightmare would you ever imagine such events unfolding!" Bill King

by Buck Turgidson on Jan 2, 2011 11:45 AM PST up reply actions  

Or 4/64

Or 3/48!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 2, 2011 11:54 AM PST up reply actions  

I do

But if Texas wants to pay. Shit ton for Beltre and then keep Michael Young at 3rd, thus taking most of the value away from Beltre, I am all for it.

by jeffro on Jan 2, 2011 12:02 PM PST via mobile up reply actions  

Which would also deplete the improvement which Beltre is on that team.

Young is not a huge improvement over Mitch Moreland or a cheap FA like Branyan and Beltre isn’t a massive improvement over Young.

Expensive small upgrades FTW.

by Blicks on Jan 2, 2011 4:22 PM PST up reply actions  

Well, the upgrade is ultimately Beltre over Moreland,

which is significant — for 2011. It certainly would make them better in 2011, just as it would certainly make them worse soon after.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 2, 2011 5:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Beltre -- a 1 WAR player in Texas?

Maybe by year 5 or 6, long after Anderson, Cahill, and Gio are gone.

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Jan 2, 2011 5:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes it's not likely in the next couple of years

It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 2, 2011 7:45 PM PST up reply actions  

Define "soon after"

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Jan 2, 2011 5:20 PM PST up reply actions  

"soon after":

A phrase used to connote “in a time in the not distant future,” imminent.

Now that’s douchey!

All seriousness aside, I think by 2013 that deal would be a drain not a boon. But I’m just so sick of Beltre, and have concluded that whoever ends up with him will probably be cursed in a way not seen since Babe Ruth in Boston and some goat in Chicago.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 2, 2011 5:33 PM PST up reply actions  

Now that it looks like he probably will be joining the Rangers...

I will join you in wishing for that to happen.

Fck Beltre!

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Jan 2, 2011 5:36 PM PST up reply actions  

I really do quite hate him.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 2, 2011 5:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Uh, Beltre is around a 2 win upgrade over Young. And this is just counting defense.

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Jan 2, 2011 5:32 PM PST up reply actions  

Doesn't Young end up losing a ton of value

by moving to 1st or DH though?

"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"

www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html

by hero66 on Jan 2, 2011 7:53 PM PST up reply actions  

The way he's played 3B lately, maybe not!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 2, 2011 8:44 PM PST up reply actions  

Young sucks at defense, to the tune of about -8 runs per year at third.

But even the worse defenders at third do quite a bit better at first, in general. It’s very likely he’s a league average defender at first.

I think, as a first baseman, he’s league average. That’s probably one win he has on Moreland. I think Beltre is probably a conservative 2 win upgrade on Young. He may, in fact, be more, but it depends on what Beltre shows up offensively. For their careers, he and Young have been roughly equal with the bat. But Young got to play in Texas his entire career while Beltre has played in pretty extreme pitcher parks his career, except for last year. It wouldn’t surprise me if Texas Beltre produces vastly more with the bat as well. Like I said, he may actually produce closer to his Boston numbers than Seattle numbers since the Rangers ballpark is pretty much built for a hitter of his type.

All in all, it seems like Texas stands to gain 3 wins by signing Beltre. That may not seem like much for the money they’re spending. But you have to consider it also denies the Angels and the A’s the wins they would have stood to gain if they signed Beltre. And as the A’s were at least 3 wins behind Texas before Beltre, they’re now looking at a difference of 6 or so wins. That’s huge.

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Jan 2, 2011 9:05 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh yeah, forgot to mention, Young would lose a huge amount of value if he were to DH.

But I don’t think Texas would be dumb enough to put him there, not with plenty of DH types still on the market.

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Jan 2, 2011 9:12 PM PST up reply actions  

What I'm wondering is

Doesn’t the positional adjustment alone cause him to lose value?

"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"

www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html

by hero66 on Jan 3, 2011 8:47 PM PST up reply actions  

Only if he doesn't make up for it by being a that much better fielder

than his now inferior competition

It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 4, 2011 5:15 AM PST up reply actions  

Hm.

Beltre going to the Rangers would pretty much render everything the A’s did this offseason moot. It would also very possibly screw over the A’s chances for the rest of the Anderson, Gio, Cahill years. Beltre’s type as a hitter plays very well at the Rangers ballpark so it’s very possible he puts up a few years like the one he had this year with the Red Sox and/or his offensive decline comes slower.

I don’t know what the Rangers budget situation is like so I don’t know how a deal like this, with the numbers being reported rumored, would affect it in the future. But it’s quite clear the A’s can’t and shouldn’t match a deal like this one. Unfortunately, it’s quite like a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation. Very depressing.

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Jan 2, 2011 1:47 PM PST up reply actions  

It's the exact same deal you've said the A's

basically can’t afford not to offer (5/80), just for 6 years instead of 5. If it’s essential that the A’s offer 5/80, and your division rival is about to ink him, why not go $16M/year for one more year? It’s just one year!

XOXOXO,

Scott.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 2, 2011 2:25 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm not sure if you're being deliberately obtuse, or if you're just trying to be a douche...

We were talking about the difference between 5/75 and 5/80 before.

If you don’t see how that difference is significantly smaller than the difference between 5/80 and 6/96, then your grasp of baseball economics is far weaker than I thought.

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Jan 2, 2011 2:57 PM PST up reply actions  

I took it as a joke

hence the “xoxoxo, scott”

by jeffro on Jan 2, 2011 2:58 PM PST up reply actions  

I took it as a reference

to this conversation.

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Jan 2, 2011 3:14 PM PST up reply actions  

You're both right!

It was a joking reference to that conversation. Which I believe qualifies me as “being deliberately obdouche.”

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 2, 2011 3:56 PM PST up reply actions  

*

""Expelliarmus!" said Eckstein, attempting to knock the bat out of Matt Kemp's hands, just before Kemp laced a single to center." -Ken Tremendous

by Cheezombie on Jan 2, 2011 11:22 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

NAAAAAAAAH.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 2, 2011 8:44 PM PST up reply actions  

We've passed the Baseball Equinox.

The start of the next season is now closer than the end of last season.

by LoneStranger on Jan 2, 2011 11:04 AM PST reply actions   3 recs

(renews mlbtv)

alaska A currently residing in northern Idaho.

by ak_A on Jan 2, 2011 11:42 AM PST up reply actions  

Yay!

It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 2, 2011 12:12 PM PST up reply actions  

My dream expansion scenario now:

AL – Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Brooklyn Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, Florida Marlins

NL – Boston Beaneaters, New York Mets, New York Highlanders, Washington Nationals, Atlanta Braves, Montreal Expos, Pittsburgh Pirates, Philadelphia Phillies

Central – Minnesota Twins, Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, St Louis Cardinals, Texas Rangers, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals

Pacific – Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants, Oak/SJ Athletics, Los Angeles Dodgers, Anaheim Angels, San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies

We expand to existing markets but each metro area still has one fewer team than the study says it can support. Expanding to large markets makes TV packages more valuable and increases competitive balance.

It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 2, 2011 12:19 PM PST reply actions  

There's no way in hell that the Mets and Yankees let in 2 other teams in their market.

They would absolutely refuse any revenue sharing in the CBA. And that’s if the even have the extra cash to make it worth it. The A’s and all the small market teams would get screwed.

So are those leagues or divisions? How would they work for any interleague/postseason?

by Furyan on Jan 2, 2011 1:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Was there a way in hell that the Expos moved to Washington?

Not sure what you mean by “revenue sharing in the CBA”.

It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 2, 2011 5:13 PM PST up reply actions  

There's a missing ingredient, I think.

Your exhibits B & C are good, but incomplete. For example, you say…

…there is enough available personal income in New York to add five MLB teams, and enough in Los Angeles, Houston, Washington DC, and Chicago to add another team to each market.
The raw numbers of people and money may indicate so, but I’m not so sure about places like Houston and DC. DC has always been a weak-drawing area going back to the origin of the AL, and I still think their long-term success is questionable. Houston’s never really been a hotbed of baseball, either.

On the flip side, St Louis doesn’t score as well in people and money numbers as other cities, but it IS a hotbed of baseball and they have a large and thriving fanbase that actually attends games.

In spite of the combined attendance numbers for the A’s and that other team whose name I forget in the early 2000s, I still don’t think of the bay area as a great baseball area, either. Though it has improved since the 1970s. Maybe this is what you were saying in your Exhibit A, but it didn’t come across that way to me.

I do believe that the bay area can now handle two teams… with a new A’s stadium… but it will always be the #4 two-team market in terms of being strong enough to allow both teams to do what they need to compete at the highest levels continuously.

"We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are."
~ Anais Nin

by UncleLeo on Jan 2, 2011 3:25 PM PST reply actions  

Its the difference between looking at total population versus baseball market population.

Only a subset of the total population has an interest in baseball and only a smaller subset of that has a strong interest. You could look at a population of a billion people with trillions of dollars, but if 0% of that population cares about baseball, it may not be the best place to move to.

Choosy Feebas choose Leopold Bloom nipples

Daring. Sensual. Invigorating. Squirrel.
BLOOM. For men.

If the eggs actually hatch I made more than a mistake, I made some scientifically impossible crime.

by DMOAS on Jan 2, 2011 4:28 PM PST up reply actions  

"If they can put a man on the moon,

why can’t they put them all there?"

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 2, 2011 5:03 PM PST up reply actions  

The moon is too small

Put a team on Mars and a team could have a whole planet to themselves.

by Charley Thompson on Jan 3, 2011 5:18 PM PST up reply actions  

(conquers Mars)

It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 4, 2011 5:15 AM PST up reply actions  

Exactly what I meant, but more concise.

"We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are."
~ Anais Nin

by UncleLeo on Jan 2, 2011 4:56 PM PST up reply actions  

On the other hand baseball has done pretty well in Atlanta and Houston which were supposed

to be Football, College Football, High School Football, and NASCAR markets.

It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 2, 2011 5:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah

I should have said, “There is no way any of those other markets could/should/would add another team.”

Especially the way MLB works. If it was Premier League soccer or something…

by jeffro on Jan 2, 2011 6:54 PM PST up reply actions  

Reposted from Flashfire's comment in the other thread:

http://espndeportes.espn.go.com/news/story?id=1200125&s=bei&type=story

A rough translation of the second and third paragraphs:

    Two media of Dominican Republic reported Sunday on the negotiations. The newspaper The Caribbean reported that Beltré and Texas would complete in the next days a pact for six years and $90 million dollars, while the place Piodeportes.com said that the contract was a fact and would report $96 million to Beltré.

    "Still they continue speaking, they have not completed the details, but an agreement seems imminent", the source said of ESPNdeportes.com. Another source indicated that the contract probably will be for five years and an option for the 2016.

Obviously, this means that Chad Qualls is more necessary than ever.

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Jan 2, 2011 5:27 PM PST reply actions  

For all you know, in April Chad Qualls will run over to tag Beltre on the head,

causing Beltre to frantically jerk to try to avoid him, pulling a hamstring that he reaggravates constantly throughout the rest of the season and the remainder of his career. Chad Qualls is the secret weapon that will help the A’s return to glory in the AL West.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 2, 2011 5:37 PM PST up reply actions  

been there

  We heard this before so don’t fall for it. Texas might be going after Beltre but if they do watch Young get traded at the same time. Boras loves to plant rumors and this happens right after the Angels have no one bidding against them. Sounds fishy to me.

by Arcman on Jan 2, 2011 6:57 PM PST up reply actions  

We've heard before that a signing is "imminent"? News to me.

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Jan 2, 2011 7:09 PM PST up reply actions  

We actually have.

Remember when RotoWorld said he was “likely to sign with the A’s by the end of the week”? Of course, it’s RotoWorld, so…about as reliable as a Don Nomura salary comp.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 2, 2011 8:45 PM PST up reply actions  

Meh, that was just Jayson Stark speculating because the deadline to tender contracts was near.

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Jan 2, 2011 9:07 PM PST up reply actions  

Well I got excited.

Once I get excited, everything’s official as far as I’m concerned.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 2, 2011 9:09 PM PST up reply actions  

Nice post Jeffro, I really liked the financial info you posted.

A couple of adds to the convo, not really in response to any specific point:

1. I agree that the Bay Area can and should be a good two-team market. I think the two-team market is far easier to accommodate than taking LA, Chicago, or NY to a three-team market, even ignoring T-rights for the moment. The big reason I feel that way is that there isn’t a third type of league. One thing that helps sustain two-team markets, IMO, is that they are all split AL and NL. This means that they have different visiting teams (typically), slightly different rules, etc. Some fans in two-team markets support both for this reason. It also ensures that the casual transplanted fan who goes to 3 games a year will get to see their Red Sox/Yanks/Mets/Phillies/etc. every year at one of the two parks. But when you bring the third team into the market, it offers no new angle that isn’t already tapped in the market.

2. If the A’s land a new stadium locally – which I desperately hope they will – I think contraction completely goes off the table forever. Let’s say I currently believe there’s a 1% chance that the A’s will be contracted in 15-20 years. That 1% chance is based upon the risk that all the following happen: a.) Team is unable to build a park; b.) Wolff/Fisher immediately want to sell, and cannot find a legitimate buyer; c.) MLB buys the franchise; d.) attendance slips to sub-12,000, and e.) all of those same four things happen in Tampa Bay over the next 15 years. If the A’s get their new stadium, that means there’s only one franchise that’s in stadium limbo remaining – the Rays. And even if they remain in limbo, it almost doesn’t matter. The league can make them their new traveling bandshow, Expos 2 – games in Monterrey, Mexico; games in Puerto Rico; playing new domestic cities off of each other in the rights to earn the Rays if they relocated. The league can play that game successfully with one franchise; if they had to do it with two, I doubt they would.

3. I don’t think the A’s will be contracted and I don’t want them to be. But, I had a front-page post deadline, and it was a interesting topic to explore on a slow A’s news day. I’m glad so many people have followed up because I’ve learned some good info in this post and in the comments from others, thank you.

The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.

by notsellingjeans on Jan 2, 2011 6:09 PM PST reply actions  

point 2

That’s how I read your original post – that if the A’s don’t get a new stadium, they would be a target for contraction, so if they do get a new stadium (Hey Bud – please, for the love of all that is good, decide something soon), contraction would never happen.

Now there's nothing left to say, so let's go drink beer.

by doctorK on Jan 2, 2011 7:55 PM PST up reply actions  

I liked your post

I am not taking umbrage with it.

by jeffro on Jan 3, 2011 6:57 AM PST up reply actions  

OT: Dish Network

(Sorry if this has been discussed in other threads.) But I have Dish Network and I was wondering if there was anyone in the know if they will bring back CSNCA. I am pregnant with twins and will most likely be on bed rest at the end of my pregnancy and I want to have some ammo in talking to my husband about changing providers if there is no chance that CSNCA is coming back to Dish.

by A's Fan KT on Jan 2, 2011 7:11 PM PST reply actions  

I didn't mean to highjack your thread.

I’m just concerned that I won’t be able to see the A’s play this year. But if you guys don’t know I understand.

by A's Fan KT on Jan 2, 2011 8:02 PM PST up reply actions  

Best wishes and take care of yourself, A's Fan K T

Let others take care of you too. i can tell you will take care of yourself with your concern about CSNCA.

by LibrariAN on Jan 2, 2011 8:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Also remember, if your husband isn't open to changing providers

you can always change husbands. I mean, a good baseball team and sports channel are hard to find.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 2, 2011 9:06 PM PST up reply actions  

Hee Hee!

I will settle for radio. But I would like to see the A’s play. How does MLB.TV work?

by A's Fan KT on Jan 2, 2011 9:40 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm a long time subscriber to MLB.TV.

At first it was miserable, but it is getting better and better each year. Its at the point where the picture quality is very good and the feed is reliable, and I think MLB.TV is well worth the money ($119 for the year for the most expensive package I think). It helps to have a laptop if getting MLB.TV, sitting at a desktop for three hours a couple times a week gets annoying. But other than that, it is pretty simple and reliable. Once you subscribe you just go to the list of games on MLB.com and you can watch the home or away teams feed, or listen to the radio.
My favorite part, if you happen to have a PS3, is that it can stream through your PS3 to the big screen. The quality is good and its not such a small screen. You could also connect your laptop to a TV through a HDMI or VGA cable, if you have one.

What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.

by winchester5 on Jan 2, 2011 10:46 PM PST up reply actions  

Is there an option for local games yet?

"We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are."
~ Anais Nin

by UncleLeo on Jan 2, 2011 11:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Not as of last year.

What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.

by winchester5 on Jan 3, 2011 1:40 AM PST up reply actions  

That holds me back.

I would get most of the A’s games as I live in Iowa, but Iowa is the black-hole of MLB broadcasting and 6 team’s games are blacked out here. I have a hard time justifying paying the fee when as much as up to 20% of the games being played on a given day are unavailable.

"We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are."
~ Anais Nin

by UncleLeo on Jan 3, 2011 8:40 AM PST up reply actions  

Yeah that is a lot of blackouts, I wouldn't be happy paying all that to miss that many games.

What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.

by winchester5 on Jan 3, 2011 12:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Thanks!

So can you get the game live locally? If you can then that’s what I will end up doing. Don’t want to have to wait to watch it 90 mins after the game is over.

by A's Fan KT on Jan 2, 2011 11:27 PM PST up reply actions  

Well I've lived in NJ my whole life, so I've never had a problem watching A's games completely live, but I know for me Yankee and Mets games are blacked out.

The blackout restrictions I guess you would have to check out in your area, but I suppose if you don’t get CSNCA it shouldn’t be blacked out, however I’m not too sure how that stuff works.

What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.

by winchester5 on Jan 3, 2011 1:45 AM PST up reply actions  

Except the Saturday afternoon games

It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 3, 2011 6:13 AM PST up reply actions  

God damn FOX is right.

What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.

by winchester5 on Jan 3, 2011 12:11 PM PST up reply actions  

And MLB

MLB could really be pushing for something different

by jeffro on Jan 3, 2011 4:07 PM PST up reply actions  

Thanks again.

I am going to hope that DISH gets CSNCA back and push for changing providers if they don’t.

by A's Fan KT on Jan 3, 2011 9:57 AM PST up reply actions  

Call them and complain

Each time I’ve done so they’ve given me $10/month off my bill. Last time I did so I talked to their corporate PR guy who told me they were close to a deal.

I wont hold my breath though. If we’re not back on by March I’ll be changing.

by BigJ7489 on Jan 4, 2011 10:57 AM PST up reply actions  

It's funny because DISH did this to themselves.

They told Comcast the fees were too much. The FCC took a look and decided that the fees were appropriate. DISH decided to drop the channel.

by LoneStranger on Jan 4, 2011 11:16 AM PST up reply actions  

Any time Op Ivy and 924 Gilman Street get named drop on AN, I'm all for it

During a contract holdout with Oakland in the early 1990s, Henderson said, "If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego."

by Man Bear Pig on Jan 2, 2011 10:17 PM PST via mobile reply actions  

Contraction

Contraction is a non issue. Two HUGE reasons. Contract and the the Senators of the States that lose the teams will get the ball rolling to kill the anti trust exemption that the owners love.

Two, the baseball players have the strongest union in the nation and will never allow contraction.

by Charley Thompson on Jan 3, 2011 5:09 PM PST reply actions  

Young at first base?

The only problem with this is that Young does not want to play first base. Young does not want to switch positions again. Ain’t gonna happen.

by Charley Thompson on Jan 3, 2011 8:04 PM PST reply actions  

"Young at first base?"

That was supposed to be a reply to n above comment

by Charley Thompson on Jan 3, 2011 8:13 PM PST up reply actions  

Those crazy little things

called facts

"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"

www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html

by hero66 on Jan 3, 2011 8:48 PM PST up reply actions  

These things..called facts...I just..can't handle them.

It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 4, 2011 5:16 AM PST up reply actions  

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