On Being Injured, Aging, Decrepit, and Hurt
by designatedforassignment on Jan 18, 2011 8:01 PM PST
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Some people around have recently taken one too many deep whiffs of ether or let their dentist leave the nitrous tap open just a weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee bit too long and insist on sunshine pumping their delirium on the rest of us who would prefer to have some semblance of discerning reality from the Santas riding ponies in our mind . That being said, I would like to ask those who do not agree with the projections which say that the A's aren't very good if there has ever been a team with a health question at 19 of the 25 projected active roster spots that has made the playoffs? Lets look at the medicals:
C1 Kurt Suzuki: Kurt hurt his oblique last year and missed 19 games on the DL. Despite missing those games still managed to play 131 games last year, an insane number for a catcher on team not in contention who had missed significant time with a soft tissue injury. Soft tissue injuries increase the likelihood of future injury even after they have healed and it is very possible that playing 148, 147, and 131 games in an injury riddled year is catching up to him.
OUTLOOK: Moderate Risk
C2 Landon Powell: Powell has been a back up catcher for two years in the MLB when Suzuki was playing a ton of games and we were experimenting with Jake Fox, so knowing how hurt he has been by DL time isn't necissarily the best approach, but this is what we do know. There were many times in the past two years when Powell was unavailable to play because of soft tissue injuries to his hamstrings. There were also many games where he limped around the bases slower than hospital patients walk to the Xray machine. We also know that he has a rare form of liver disease called autoimmune hepatitis and has had both knees operated on for a total of at least 3 surgeries for his two legs.
OUTLOOK: MASSIVE RISK
1B Daric Barton Daric Barton is generally fine when staying away from swimming pools. Actually thats not true. Barton had a broken finger last year which didn't require DL time and had a hamstring problems that sent him to the DL in 2008. In the minors Barton battled an elbow injury for much of 2007. Plus, he does those splits which not only make my groin hurt every time I see them but also is likely to pull something eventually.
OUTLOOK: Moderate Risk
2B Mark Ellis:
Transactions/Injuries/Suspensions
May 22, 2010 Missed 28 games (hamstring). April 21, 2010 Hamstring, 15-day DL. April 20, 2010 Missed 7 games (hamstring). April 12, 2010 Hamstring, day-to-day. June 28, 2009 Missed 55 games (calf injury). May 20, 2009 Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (calf injury). April 29, 2009 Calf injury, 15-day DL. September 21, 2008 Right shoulder injury, 60-day DL. August 31, 2008 Right shoulder injury, day-to-day. August 30, 2008 Missed 2 games (right shoulder injury). August 28, 2008 Right shoulder injury, day-to-day. August 27, 2008 Missed 4 games (shoulder injury). August 23, 2008 Shoulder injury, day-to-day. July 25, 2008 Missed 2 games (right shoulder injury). July 22, 2008 Right shoulder injury, day-to-day. May 23, 2008 Missed 7 games (hamstring). May 15, 2008 Hamstring, day-to-day. June 2, 2007 Missed 3 games (knee injury). May 30, 2007 Knee injury, day-to-day. October 10, 2006 Did not make the ALCS roster. October 5, 2006 Broken finger, will miss the remainder of the playoffs. June 30, 2006 Missed 26 games (thumb injury). June 1, 2006 Thumb injury, 15-day DL. May 31, 2006 Thumb injury, day-to-day. May 23, 2006 Missed 2 games (shoulder injury). May 22, 2006 Shoulder injury, day-to-day. October 4, 2004 Missed entire 2004 season (shoulder injury). September 3, 2004 Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (shoulder injury). April 4, 2004 Shoulder injury, 15-day DL. August 26, 2003 Missed 1 game (hand injury). August 25, 2003 Hand injury, day-to-day.
Need I say more?
OUTLOOK: MASSIVE RISK
3B Kevin Kouzmanoff: Has longstanding back issues which has caused him to miss 5 or more games 3 times over his career and basically the last month of the season in 2010. Ask anyone with back problems (including a certain former 3bman of ours) if they get better or I could save you some time... they don't. Oh yeah he has also had DL time with a calf problem a couple of years ago.
OUTLOOK: MASSIVE RISK
SS Cliff Pennington In addition to a minor league career that was plagued by injuries more than zits plague a teenagers face, he only has one working shoulder and is already projected to miss time.
OUTLOOK: MASSIVE RISK
UT Adam Rosales No one knows if a broken ankle will recover to the point where he gets his range and speed back and already is scheduled to miss part of spring training.
OUTLOOK: High Risk
Transactions/Injuries/Suspensions
November 10, 2010 Missed the last 67 games of the regular season (right thumb injury). September 1, 2010 Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (right thumb injury). July 23, 2010 Right thumb injury, 15-day DL. May 27, 2010 Missed 2 games (personal reasons). May 25, 2010 Personal reasons, day-to-day. October 4, 2009 Missed the last 9 games of the regular season (illness). September 25, 2009 Illness, day-to-day. September 22, 2009 Missed 2 games (ankle injury). September 20, 2009 Ankle injury, day-to-day. September 18, 2009 Missed 1 game (knee injury). September 17, 2009 Knee injury, day-to-day. July 28, 2009 Missed 1 game (right knee injury). July 27, 2009 Right knee injury, day-to-day. September 29, 2008 Missed the last 3 games of the regular season (hip injury). September 26, 2008 Hip injury, day-to-day. August 12, 2008 Missed 1 game (hip injury). August 10, 2008 Hip injury, day-to-day. August 8, 2008 Missed 5 games (sprained left ankle). August 2, 2008 Sprained left ankle, day-to-day. July 2, 2008 Missed 2 games (bruised ribs). June 30, 2008 Bruised ribs, day-to-day. April 14, 2008 Missed 11 games (sprained right ankle). March 31, 2008 Sprained right ankle, day-to-day. April 23, 2007 Missed 1 game (ankle injury). April 22, 2007 Ankle injury, day-to-day. May 29, 2006 Missed 35 games (hamstring). April 21, 2006 Hamstring, 15-day DL. April 19, 2006 Hamstring, day-to-day. April 15, 2006 Missed 6 games (hamstring). April 8, 2006 Hamstring, day-to-day. October 2, 2005 Missed 11 games to the end of the regular season (foot injury). September 24, 2005 Shoulder injury, day-to-day. September 21, 2005 Missed 22 games (shoulder injury). August 29, 2005 Shoulder injury, day-to-day. August 24, 2005 Rib injury, day-to-day. August 24, 2005 Missed 1 game (rib injury). August 21, 2005 Missed 1 game (rib injury). August 20, 2005 Rib injury, day-to-day. May 20, 2005 Missed 1 game (foot injury). May 19, 2005 Foot injury, day-to-day. September 1, 2004 Missed 1 game (concussion).
Like Ellis, need I say more?
OUTLOOK: MASSIVE RISK
CF Coco Crisp Has played 120 games 1 in the last 5 years
OUTLOOK: MASSIVE RISK
RF Josh Willingham Has longstanding back problems that has cost him huge chunks of the season in the past coupled with missing the last 44 games of the season with knee surgery.
OUTLOOK: MASSIVE RISK
OF Ryan Sweeney Has two bad knees which forced him to miss much of the season with knee surgurey. Also has numerous day to day maladies from dives and crashing into the wall.
OUTLOOK: MASSIVE RISK
OF Conor Jackson Had Valley Fever, significant hamstring issues, and finished the season on the DL with a sports hernia.
OUTLOOK: MASSIVE RISK
DH Hediki Matsui Has two bum knees that have both required surgery. Also really old.
OUTLOOK: MASSIVE RISK
Pitching
Note: All risks are relative to other pitchers which means that low risk isn't really that low.\
SP: Trevor Cahill Was on the DL at the end of ST last year, non throwing arm
OUTLOOK: Low Risk
SP Gio Gonzalez Was on the DL at the end of ST 2009 but otherwise healthy
OUTLOOK: Low Risk
SP: Brett Anderson: Is going to have to have TJ eventually because thats what happens to people that get forearm strains. Also has other nagging injuries and has spent DL time in every professional season he has had.
OUTLOOK: MASSIVE RISK
SP: Dallas Braden: Suing the teams medical staff and cant feel his toes because of baseball injury.
OUTLOOK: MASSIVE RISK
SP Rich Harden: Dude once got hurt turning off an alarm clock. Enough said.
OUTLOOK: MASSIVE RISK
RP Andrew Bailey: Has history with TJS and elbow surgery to go along with back problems
OUTLOOK: MASSIVE RISK
RP Grant Balfour Has pitched over 60 games once. Has elbow and rib injury histories and is a TJS survivor but been mostly healthy for the last three years except for a DL stint last year.
OUTLOOK: High Risk
RP Brian Fuentes Has long standing back problems going back years and put him on the DL twice last year
OUTLOOK: MASSIVE RISK
RP Michael Wuertz Throws so many sliders his arm fell off.
OUTLOOK: MASSIVE RISK
RP Brad Ziegler No health problems besides a fractured skull from a line drive in his kids little league game.
OUTLOOK: Low Risk
RP Craig Breslow No significant health problems
OUTLOOK: Low Risk
RP: Joey Divine Hasn't pitched in two years.
OUTLOOK: MASSIVE RISK
So basically we have four low risk players compared to 19 high and MASSIVE risk players on the active roster. Just to field this team look at how much needs to break right for the A's. Whats worse is our AAA team doesn't have a lot of hot shot prospects to replace the wards of hospital stricken players. Do we really think this is a contending team?
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I'll have more later (mostly regarding a lot of the risk grades that I disagree with)
but I feel the need to plug Corey Dawkins’ amazing amazing Baseball Injury Tool.
by danmerqury on Jan 18, 2011 8:22 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
This link is great, this OP is not.
Every single team in MLB has injured players. This post doesn’t achieve anything because it doesnt do the same for our division rivals.
But thanks for that injury tool link, now I can go down the list and find out exactly where dfa is overreacting and/or just plain full of crap.
Sigh.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
by mikev on Jan 19, 2011 11:04 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
huh?
If you dont think the ENTIRE FORTUNES of the Rangers depend of Josh Hamilton you are delusional. If you don’t think Hamilton is also a MASSIVE injury risk you are also delusional.
You missed the entire point of DFA's post.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Yeah when a constantly negative poster writes a negative post
Confusion is bound to happen when its not in their “traditionally” negative manner. My bad.
Do you really divide the world into "negative" and "positive" people?
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 11:20 AM PST up reply actions
No, because I know internet personas and real life humans are vastly different entities.
I only know dfa as a poster on here, and most of what he writes negatively reflects on the Oakland A’s. He might be a non-stop awesome party animal in real life who would get me laid by a supermodel if we ever hung out in the real world, which would please me greatly and encourage me to laugh off his posts on here.
But we dont, and I cant.
by PL78 on Jan 19, 2011 3:33 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
If I could get people laid by supermodels you certainly would be the last person on earth I would use that skill for.
I am more than willing to praise moves by plenty of teams including the A’s when they are good. The A’s just clearly aren’t that smart anymore.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 3:40 PM PST up reply actions
So you base me as a person off what I write about baseball on here?
I’d shake your hand and say whats up if you ever introduced yourself to me, baseball analysis does not make a man.
No but sex with supermodels does
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 3:52 PM PST up reply actions
Unless it's Rupaul
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Crap. Now I'll see his face whenever I have sex with a supermodel
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 4:13 PM PST up reply actions
If I recall
Hamilton missed an entire month, won the MVP and his team went to the World Series. Can you go a little further into detail about what you mean?
"The world is your oyster, but you're allergic to shellfish" -Apathy and Other Small Victories
by IChaseFrisbees on Jan 19, 2011 11:23 AM PST up reply actions
hahahaha yeah this.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 11:27 AM PST up reply actions
I will
Josh Hamilton 2009: 89 games, several nagging DTD injuries, 1.3 WAR
Josh Hamilton 2010: 135 games, one DL-worthy injury, 8.0 WAR
Granted, it’s hard to separate out what was simply sucking and what was injury in 2009, but to say that a lot of the Rangers’ fortunes rely on him being healthy isn’t a stretch. And that’s not even including his eventual regression.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 19, 2011 12:39 PM PST up reply actions
Also
Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler have spent significant time on the DL, and on could argue that Cruz, Hamilton and Kinsler are the biggest power threats in Texas’ lineup. Is it likely that all three miss significant time? No. Is it possible? Yes. On the same note, I would give you whatever you desire, if Harden, Anderson, Braden, Ellis, Pennington, Rosales, Suzuki, Crisp, DeJesus, Barton, Devine, Sweeny, Jackson, Kouzmanoff, Wuertz, Balfour and Fuentes all miss significant time next year. The odds of so many of our players getting hurt again next year are very low. Just like the odds of some of the Giants starting pitchers getting hurt next year are high since none of their starters missed any time last year.
by Rygoslinglover on Jan 21, 2011 1:28 PM PST up reply actions
I would agree with a lot of the Rangers fortunes riding on him
I just wasn’t so sure that a WS team could be written off so entirely based on him.
"The world is your oyster, but you're allergic to shellfish" -Apathy and Other Small Victories
by IChaseFrisbees on Jan 20, 2011 8:42 AM PST up reply actions
Not that I think this'll happen
But if Hamilton is 3 WAR or something, and the Rangers lose the division by 4 games, then yes; Hamilton’s relative suckitude indirectly cost them a repeat WS appearance.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 20, 2011 9:01 AM PST up reply actions
Respectfully
I still think teams win or lose together. All of the other guys could have done small things to add up to 3 wins (I think? I’m not a stats guy), or the blame could just as easily be shifted to another player who underperforms, if Feliz implodes for instance, or Andrus fails miserably at the plate. Or if Kinsler rubs Beltre’s head and Beltre kills him and buries him in the outfield.
"The world is your oyster, but you're allergic to shellfish" -Apathy and Other Small Victories
by IChaseFrisbees on Jan 20, 2011 9:59 AM PST up reply actions
I do believe in synergistic/antangonistic effects in teams
I just don’t know to what extent they can be quantified, and magnitude of them.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 20, 2011 10:26 AM PST up reply actions
Yes, I do still think this is a contending team, in spite of the injuries
What about the Rangers?
Josh Hamilton: injured down the stretch last year, been an injury risk his entire career, now has pneumonia.
Ian Kinsler: dude’s got no legs.
Nelson Cruz: constant hamstring issues.
Brandon Webb: like Devine, guy hasn’t pitched in two years.
Ranger’s pitchers in general: always tiring during the dog-days of August in Arlington.
The Angels?
Kendry Morales: fluke accident, no doubt, but bad luck seems to beget bad luck in the injury dept.
Mike Napoli: painful shoulder problems in ’08. His back-up is possibly the worst catcher in the majors in Jeff Mathis, who also has a history of injuries.
Bobby Abreu: back issues.
Joel Pinero: oblique strain in ’10, out 6-8 weeks.
Maicer Izturis: forearm and shoulder trouble for a lot of ’10.
The A’s are definitely more at risk than some other teams, but we’re also not playing in a world where nobody else on other squads gets injured, either. Looking at the other two teams who we expect to compete against in the West this year, I’d say we don’t look hopeless.
These clothes are good enough to drink in, and so be these boots, too.
I think you could do this with a lot of teams.
Not sure if the A’s still have more questions than most (injured players make for easier/cheaper acquisitions though!), but I’d bet that every mlb has at least a significant portion of guys with injury histories. Those who say that baseball is not a contact sport forgot about 90mph baseballs, cleats, and rock hard dirt.
It’s not easy filling the shoes of fan favorite Bobby Crosby, but Cliff Pennington says he’s up to the challenge.
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 18, 2011 8:31 PM PST up reply actions
At least you get that BB uses injury history as the new 'undervalued' part of evaluating players
This apparent fact seems lost on many here on AN.
the A’s have a gigantic history of injured players because they use injury history as a (somewhat) reliable means of finding players who are undervalued by all the other metrics, now that sabremetrics has taken GM-world by storm.
It works sometimes: see Thomas, Frank.
It doesn’t always work: see Jackson, Coma
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 9:56 PM PST up reply actions
yeah but I'd say it's not anything new
The last decade has seen a few of these signings. I think it’s more that a lot of other FO’s have caught up, and it’s one of the things the A’s have left (and will continue to have left because rich teams sign healthy players).
It’s not easy filling the shoes of fan favorite Bobby Crosby, but Cliff Pennington says he’s up to the challenge.
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 19, 2011 7:23 PM PST up reply actions
New as compared to when 'Moneyball' was written is all
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 20, 2011 7:45 AM PST up reply actions
I respectfully disagree with your assesment of Kouzmanoff.
I do not think Eric Chavez is a fair comparison at all. Chavvy had two bulging discs (which has a much longer recovery), while Kouz just had a “sore back”. Not that it couldn’t be a significant problem, but I think it’s unfair to say that at this point it is a big problem.
I’m personally more worried about his hamstring.
It’s not easy filling the shoes of fan favorite Bobby Crosby, but Cliff Pennington says he’s up to the challenge.
The hammy is also a concern
I noted the back problem because he has had it in other years and they have a tendency to go downhill fast in addition to kouz citing it for his poor performance at the plate
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 18, 2011 11:04 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Kouz definitely concerns me.
He’s not a naturally gifted athlete to begin with, so these back problems have a potential to totally sap him of the narrow set of skills he relies on – his positioning and ability to quickly react and get to balls and get off a quick throw.
I’m not optimistic about him. Honestly, I would rather take a chance with a younger guy without his UZR pedigree (maybe even Brandon Wood if he’s available for next to nothing) just so that there is some semblance of upside at the position.
I doubt Kouz will ever get better than he was last year…and that is depressing.
I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!
Anyone who makes the Major Leagues
is a naturally gifted athlete.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 19, 2011 9:31 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
This a thousand times this.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 9:39 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Taj has a point though
From a scouting perspective, when you watch the throwing action of Kouz, or even his swing, he doesn’t look like a graceful, naturally athletic dude.
His swing and his across-the-diamond throws have a very muscular, robotic look to them.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Jan 19, 2011 5:25 PM PST up reply actions
Almost like Pete Rose.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
I agree, and when we are "down" on a player, it is because we are comparing him as a top 600 player, to a top 10 player
That said, I would say that the majority of professional athletes would have a difficult time keeping up with the AVERAGE construction worker pouring concrete on a bridge project in Fresno during the summer heat. And then repeating the physical stress by repeating it every day.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
I'd say they're naturally gifted
I wouldn’t say they’re all naturally gifted athletes. I mean, John Kruk played major league baseball.
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
This
Baseball players are athletes. But not all of them are “athletic” (defining athletic as ability to run fast, jump high, hit hard, etc.). David Wells was also a damn good pitcher. But athletes don’t spend most of their free time drinking and breaking hands in bar fights…just some of it ;)
It’s not easy filling the shoes of fan favorite Bobby Crosby, but Cliff Pennington says he’s up to the challenge.
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 19, 2011 7:27 PM PST up reply actions
I expect a pretty significant defensive regression with Kouz probably down to +5
and little offensive regression. James sees a 296 BABIP when his career is 287. I see his BABIP more along his career lines producing a -7.5 BRAA. I also think his ISO is going to be lower than James as well as think hes in line for a 305 wOBA. Also I think that the likelihood that he is better than this is probably lower than the likelihood that he collapses.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 9:47 AM PST up reply actions
Brandon Wood
Really? Kouz isn’t elite, but no need to replace him with an AAAA guy.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 19, 2011 12:48 PM PST up reply actions
I'd rather have Dan Johnson
just because it’s Dan Johnson.
It’s not easy filling the shoes of fan favorite Bobby Crosby, but Cliff Pennington says he’s up to the challenge.
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 19, 2011 7:28 PM PST up reply actions
This is
MASSIVELY DEPRESSING.
I didn't realize you were veganalyst! This makes it totally different! You're one of my favorite twitter/ANers. - Susan Slusser
Yeah
but we were getting all optimistic, so it’s SO GOOD that this was posted just in time.
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
hell hath no fury like a Cowboys fan scorned. -Leopold Bloom
by MissOakland on Jan 18, 2011 8:46 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Not me. I was never optimistic.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 18, 2011 8:47 PM PST up reply actions
_________________________________________
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
hell hath no fury like a Cowboys fan scorned. -Leopold Bloom
by MissOakland on Jan 18, 2011 11:42 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
You Did a Lot of Work
But I think this would be more helpful to quantify risk in a way that focuses on injury history and using a tool such as the one referred to by Danmerqury. Just comparing Chavez to Kouz should offer some insight which may mitigate how our roster is classified. Suffice to say that I don’t think it is as bleak a picture as painted in your post.
"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King
If by, "did a lot of work," you mean, "wrote a lot of words," then yeah, I agree.
This is a full step down from the quality of your more typical posts, DFA.
Take your silver mod tubescreamer, your dr. z, your nocaster, put them in a pile and burn them. if god gave you a thousand years, you still couldn't touch this. you can't f***ing keep time to this.
by Elvez on Jan 18, 2011 9:12 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs
I tried to employ the style of those I was mocking
So of course it’s not a quality post.
I’m working on a piece that’s legitimate though so don’t worry, your regularly scheduled programing will return shortly.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 18, 2011 10:36 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
...why?
I mean, if you were trying to be a sarcastic jerk, then sure, but why else? This place is toxic enough right now.
Here I am.
Stuck in the meta with you.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 18, 2011 10:47 PM PST up reply actions 4 recs
This is very funny
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 18, 2011 10:51 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
diiig the Stealer's Wheel reference
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 19, 2011 3:39 AM PST up reply actions
Funny. True story, just this morning I was thinking about commenting on your equanimity in the other theread
Thought of Stealer’s Wheel, but realized I’d have to change the ‘jokers to the right…’ and ‘stuck in the middle parts…’
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 19, 2011 7:38 AM PST up reply actions
It doesn't work-- no one is to the right of LCJ
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
well played
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 4:06 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Yep. That was my point. But LCJ has split, see below...
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 20, 2011 7:48 AM PST up reply actions
If the blogs leadership continues to make things toxic, why should I sit on the sidelines and have people insult me without hitting back?
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 12:27 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs
I'd posit that the leadership is not the only group to blame
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 19, 2011 12:49 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs
Because escalation only contributes to the problem?
You don’t NEED to have the last word.
by danmerqury on Jan 19, 2011 1:18 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
No one will insult you if you don't set yourself up for it.
And I am getting pretty tired of the complaints about the blog leadership who do a wonderful job and exersize restraint that I wish I had.
Thank you!
-The blog leadership
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Kiss up!
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
Well in that case, ignore my latest email.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
What have I done specifically that sets myself up for it?
because I think this comment is horse shit.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 3:07 PM PST up reply actions
You're too serious
and you take offense to just about everything. Someone posts something with no ill-intent and you take offense and fight back with complete indignation and then the floodgates open and people start attacking you. Remember what you learned about dealing with bullies in elementary school and apply it here.
This thread is a perfect example. I wouldn’t have said anything if you didn’t insult the moderators and martyr yourself.
by DrDoom on Jan 19, 2011 3:53 PM PST up reply actions 4 recs
I have sat back all offseason getting insulted because the evidence suggest that we will not contend next year
Im tired of it. This week both EN and Nico have gone out of their way to insult people that look at stats and I decided to take action.
What lessons are there to learn with school yard bullies? Take off your glasses before you pulverize them?
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 3:58 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
If what you're alluding to is the "common wisdom" that the way to deal with bullies is to ignore them and hope they go away,
normally, that’s a terrible idea. The notion that bullies are really just desperate for attention is sixties-era milquetoast pabulum, repeated by the powers that be as a way of avoiding responsibility for dealing with it (if the kid can make bullying stop by himself, I don’t have to do anything about it!).
The correct way to deal with bullies is to kick them in the nuts.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
by PaulThomas on Jan 19, 2011 3:59 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Unless they're girls of course
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 4:03 PM PST up reply actions
I always found that if you just attack them while they underestimate you it works well
something about Bill Russels elbow
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 4:08 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Im not "tough" I just pick my spots
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 10:09 AM PST up reply actions
I was refering to not letting them get to you
Don’t ignore it and by all means give as good as you get. But we all know the kid who was too sensitive and therefore fun to mess with (heck it was me for a few years). Roll with the punches a bit more and everyone moves on. No one here bears malice towards you.
Watching dfa get super defensive when Nico tried to inject levity into a needlessly tense situation was like watching a train wreck. I couldn’t believe it, but it kind of made me want to grab some popcorn and see what crazy stuff was about to happen and maybe even stoke the fires a bit for my own amusement. For the record I thought what Nico did was the right move and showed humor and maturity… the response… not so much.
by DrDoom on Jan 20, 2011 10:01 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
There is a huge difference in responsibilities between Nico and I
I am not the administrator of the blog. I don’t get paid to write here. I have no position of authority or ability to sanction other users. Nico has all of those things because he wants them.
As such Nico should be required to act in a way that is different that mine, because I don’t set the direction or tone of the blog. If I go out and pick a fight with a user, am too aggressive, or use or promote language that is disrespectful to a group of people, it doesn’t set the same kind of precedent that it does when Nico does. Furthermore, there has been a longstanding history of Nico being disrespectful towards my requests that he not promote attitudes against certain types of posters, or to stop using language that I believe is disrespectful to certain groups of people that are discriminated against in society.
I don’t have this responsibility. Nico does. Usually it is well placed, but when he makes light of legitimate requests that he stop bad behavior, he does a disservice to himself and the blog by continuing to fuel disrespectful rancor around here.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 10:19 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Nico does act differently than you
Walking into a shitstorm and making a harmless joke to hopefully derail things is a wise move that works 99% of the time. The fact that you took it the way you did is something I don’t think anyone expected.
But who cares… I just thought I would give me two cents on how you could avoid these entanglements. You don’t have to agree or listen. I really am just trying to help…. mostly.
News flash.
Nico doesn’t set the direction or the tone of the blog either. He probably wishes he could.
For better or for worse, AN is the product of the entire community. A lot of people have been asking the mods to “fix” the tone of the blog. As if we could. AN is the community. The blog goes as the community goes. Short of a gigantic ban-fest, Nico can’t change that.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I also don't think you can expect the guy who runs the site to completely check his own personality...
…at the door when posting here. I never liked the thought that just because someone in a position of authority has a certain opinion it equals the site itself being expected to follow suit or something like that.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Thank you for this.
I understand that I play a different role than when I was just a commenter, but I also think I have established a pretty long-standing tradition now of being a blogfather who frequently joins conversations like any other user. Blez wasn’t quite that way — he was never profilic in the threads. So it’s a little different style; by now, if nothing else, everyone ought to be used to it!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Mostly used to it or
mostly you realize that in less than 48 hours I’m going to be devouring your huge rack?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Oh. Maybe you're not...invited...how awkward...
No, some Facebook-generated party I got invited to join, even though I’m not on Facebook. I thought you were bringing thingies on a thingy wrapped in thingy.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Rack-of-Lynn?
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
I do get the POV some have that by holding certain opinions it may suggest to others...
…that, I don’t know, they’re more likely to curry favor with you and/or the other mods by agreeing with it.
I’ve never felt that just because you aren’t deep into stats, it’s like those who are aren’t welcome here or aren’t equal. I think you’ve tried to show the opposite in part by bringing Dan up to the front page, but in general I just haven’t had the sense that only certain opinions are welcome here.
Just because things get out of hand sometimes with the stats vs. non-stats stuff doesn’t mean those sides can’t coexist. There’s generally mocking and ridicule on all sides depending on who the person is.
It just feels sometimes like you ought to put a disclaimer in your own sig that says “My views do not necessarily represent those of AN as a whole…really.”
Maybe this is because I ran into the same issues when I was briefly in a position of power here. It’s one of the reasons I stopped doing it. I was tired of being expected by some to check my opinions at the door, censor myself, or participate less in debates.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
(And Dan rocks, anyway. Not suggesting the only reason he's on the front is to appease anyone)
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Yeah. I figure people could also just realize
that my opinions, ideas, and analyses, when stated as a fan, are just that and nothing more. I’ve certainly never suggested otherwise.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Trust me, it's appreciated
I even kinda sorta appreciate the realism of “the others” sometimes.
I have to trust that SOMEBODY appreciates me,
or I would just sob uncontrollably all the time. (Not just when I beg for dates.)
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Oh come on. You are appreciated; that doesn't mean that Im not going to tell you when you are screwing up.
Furthermore, much of the rancor that exists can be solved if when people make requests of you to not use a certain type of language, or when people are upset about the direction of the blog, if you acknowledged that those people care about the blog and clearly feel a way for a reason that you would take into account in the future. I can’t think of a single nonbaseball disagreement we have had that wouldn’t be solved if you took that approach rather than trivializing, making fun of, and or dismissing when people express such views.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 21, 2011 4:28 PM PST up reply actions
Youre taking criticism of your time as a mod as something it wasn't.
The problem wasn’t that you had an opinion or that you expressed it. Its that you often IMO stepped over the line that you created for others. Its a hypocrisy issue rather than a you have a opinion issue. Its the same problem that I have with Nico from time to time; he acts in ways that are over the line he created for others by baiting, and attacking people. Im probably one of the most aggressive posters around and this is the first time that I have gone out and intentionally written part of a post that I know would go after a subsection of this blog. Nico does it all the time.
As for Dan, hes great, you are right and I enjoy his work. But he doesn’t play the game that the majority of the stats posters do. Hes into a different kind of stats, physics and pitch f(x) and stuff. Not the chess game that the rest of us are. Furthermore, a large part of the reason why dan was picked is because he is probably the most nonstat person who qualifies as a stats person in that he participates in non stats sections of the blog almost at the same rate that he does the stats part.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 21, 2011 4:25 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Here's your problem:
gone out and intentionally written part of a post that I know would go after a subsection of this blog. Nico does it all the time.
Incorrect. It takes a certain narcissism to interpret things like, “Here’s what I think people who focus on WAR are missing…” as “He’s taking a dig at ME!” No, not a dig. No, not talking to or about you (any “you”).
I know I’ll never convince you, or several others, of this so I no longer try — I just write and hope somebody likes what I write and that somebody else finds it interesting to discuss.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'm not talking about that one instance Nico
I could give you five or more examples of posts you have started in the manner that you decried in this post. This is the first statperson driven post on an that I can ever recall doing the same. You don’t seem to like it so much when the shoe is on the other foot
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 22, 2011 10:26 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
And what I'm saying is that many of those examples
are where you perceived something to be personal and mocking when it was not aimed at you or at being more than playing. Example: Trevor Cahill, FIPbuster!
The difference with your first paragraph is two-fold. One, it’s way more extreme and over-the-top in scope, and two, it is intentional — which you sometimes attribute to me when it isn’t the case. (How do I know it was intentional this time? Because you have said so.)
But if it’s important to you to hear me say this, hear it now: For any and all times I have upset you with something that felt to you like it was personal, mocking or insensitive, I’m sorry and I’ll try to do better. (And I’ll almost certainly fail.)
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Thank you...
But if it’s important to you to hear me say this, hear it now: For any and all times I have upset you with something that felt to you like it was personal, mocking or insensitive, I’m sorry and I’ll try to do better. (And I’ll almost certainly fail.)
99% of the time this is all many of us that feel this way are asking for.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 23, 2011 1:06 AM PST up reply actions
wtf does that mean?
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 24, 2011 6:44 PM PST up reply actions
Hmm, I think you've got a point there, yeah
Whether I meant to step over a line or not, I believe it happened enough to be an issue.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Im not expecting him to check his opinion at the door, just to stop attacking and allowing attacks against a certain kind of poster
and to take requests that he doesn’t lead the blog in that direction seriously
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 21, 2011 4:14 PM PST up reply actions
Ban-fest, you say?
What about a ban-draft?
We could do it like the hotties list.
Bob Geren was born in a suburban apartment complex he built with his own two hands.
by QueenOfCansAndJars on Jan 20, 2011 5:28 PM PST up reply actions
you are vastly underselling the ability of those who write on the front page to set the tone of the blog
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 21, 2011 4:12 PM PST up reply actions
yeah, this is post is just childish and disappointing.
both the tone and the content. its one you’ll look back on and wish you hadn’t (if you aren’t already).
when you decide to put together something quantifying how high the injury risks are and how the a’s are equipped to deal with those risks, and comparing that info to other teams, im sure youll have plenty of interested readers.
by NRC on Jan 19, 2011 1:32 PM PST up reply actions 4 recs
Maybe in the next piece we'll learn:
- the mean and median speeds at which hospital patients limp towards xray machines.
- why being limber enough to do the slits is actually a problem.
- if it was Wuertz’s throwing arm that fell off.
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 19, 2011 3:37 AM PST up reply actions
Doing the slits looks pretty dangerous to me
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 3:49 AM PST up reply actions 3 recs
ha
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 19, 2011 3:57 AM PST up reply actions
RIP Ari-Up!
Sucks she died, but it rules that A’s fans continually have the best taste in music out of any MLB team’s fanbase*.
*Note: no research or analysis was done other than seeing/referencing random obscure bands on this site.
-1
I appreciate the general idea of the post and I share your view that A’s are precariously teetering on the edge of total injury devastation, BUT it really serves no function to adopt a “style” that diminishes the quality of your analysis just to mock people that have disagreed with you in the past. Again, I agree with your tone and the point of this post, but it could have been written much more effectively if you hadn’t fallen for that trap.
I Don't believe A's fans should be ripping each other
I think it’s interesting to think about how to quantify injuries because I do this all the time. If I need to rip somebody, it will be a Giants/Red Sox/ Yankees fan.
"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King
Elvez's point is perfectly legit. To be honest this fanpost's content kinda sucks and isn't up to my standards of quality
specifically because I was trying to imitate a particular style of prevalent posts around here.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 9:49 AM PST up reply actions
and then you wonder why people take shots at you?
Just get your own site and get it over with already.
I mean, he has just as much a right to post here and give his opinion as you do
Yours are not any more important than his, and in ways his are often more worth paying attention to because of the amount of thought and research he puts into things.
And that’s coming from someone who often disagrees with him.
If he’s down on the A’s, I’m pretty sure he’s got good reasons for it. We don’t all have to agree with them.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
by Flashfire on Jan 19, 2011 3:45 PM PST up reply actions 4 recs
This means a lot... thanks flashfire
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 3:59 PM PST up reply actions
You're welcome
I’ve not posted much over the past week because I’ve been busy with some other things, so I’ve missed most of the meta.
On one hand I’ve kind of had my fill of it lately and I wish it would stop. On the other there’s a part of me that knows it probably won’t ever fully end, so if people engage in it I need to know when to just back off it and find something else to do.
Fights are going to happen one way or the other because personalities and opinions clash. We all want the A’s to succeed, but we all have different opinions on what they need to do to make it happen or how good the actual roster is at this time.
Right now I’m kind of split 50/50 on it and I’m not quite sure what to make of the roster until we see them play together. I’m leaning toward it being a lot better than them doing nothing at this point, but I’m concerned about the injury risks.
Either way, I’m rambling. I just think sometimes people need to understand that AN is what it is, for better or worse. Saying “Leave and go make your own place because you’re too negative” is ridiculous, though.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Its funny that I never said dfa should leave
I said he should get his own blog. There’s a difference but this is the worst thread in AN history, so anything goes!
"Get your own blog" is basically one step removed from "Stop posting the things you do here"
Which is basically one step removed from “Leave.”
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Because you needed the explanation
Last of the Ninth - Photography
by Flashfire on Jan 19, 2011 4:49 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Please stop acting like a child throwing a temper tantrum
Check that. Please stop BEING a child throwing a temper tantrum.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
You're calling PL's behavior a temper tantrum?
Come on.
by sleepingcobra on Jan 19, 2011 4:53 PM PST up reply actions
bro-hug?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
always
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 4:21 PM PST up reply actions
Rec'd
If you don’t like the fanpost, don’t comment on it— that way it will be more likely to die a natural death. Or else flag it as spam and ask the mods to delete it, which I frequently do with poorly-written or slapdash posts.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
On the bright side
There are a lot of them so we can cover for a few injuries at once.
I think this analysis would be equally depressing for a lot of teams, but health is certainly a huge factor. I am extremely worried about Anderson and what another injury to him would mean for the team. Besides him I don’t think there is any other one player whose absence would have a huge impact… Maybe Crisp due to his defense.
We have no depth
When BA and Braden each miss 15 starts who are you going to pitch? Brett Tomko?
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 18, 2011 10:54 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
McCarthy, Harden, Outman, Cramer, Ross
Would be the first choices…
Too bad we DFA’s Mortensen though.
Hurt and Sucks, Hurt and Sucks, Hurt, Healthy and Not Very Good, and Hurt
really fking inspiring.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 9:50 AM PST up reply actions
So you agree Cramer is healthy!
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 9:59 AM PST up reply actions
sure
Toreallba, low
Moreland, low
Kinsler, massive
Andrus, low
Beltre, moderate
Murphy, moderate
Hamilton, massive
Cruz, high
Wilson, moderate
Lewis, moderate
Holland, Massive
Webb, Massive
Hunter, Moderate
Feliz low
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 11:37 AM PST up reply actions
So Cruz is high
And Kouz is massive… that seems fair. Of their 5 top hitters, 3 are massive, 1 high and 1 moderate by your estimation. Plenty of risk there. Injuries are likely to decide the division and while I always said the A’s are step behind, nothing about this thread makes me think we don’t have a reasonable shot at the division on a much smaller budget. It’s not perfect but I think Beane has done an ok job.
What about the bullpen/backup starters?
That is fair criticism.
Kouz should probably be moved down.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 21, 2011 2:34 PM PST up reply actions
I don't think it's quite as bad as you do, but it's still pretty bad
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
I think GP/GS would be much better stats to use
If a guy like Kouz (who has played 140+ games the last four years) grades the same as Harden, your metric is seriously flawed.
Plus, this analysis doesn’t weight for skill of players or replacements. Harden’s injury risk is much less important to the 2011 than Kouz’s. Ultimately, I don’t think that this analysis yields valuable results and does not stop the A’s being a playoff team.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Jan 18, 2011 8:58 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
This is basically what I was thinking.
A lot of the grades seem overly harsh. If you’re going to give everybody “MASSIVE RISK”, you’re going to need a grade that’s two or three grades higher for Harden.
And besides that, there is absolutely no way that Barton should be “Moderate”, while Cahill and Gio are “Low”. They throw baseballs 90+ mph 100 times a day for a living. By default, they should be “Moderate”, at the lowest.
Regarding pitchers vs. batters: See dfa's note right under his pitchers header
"Juuuuust a bit outside" - Harry Doyle
by ArunisArun on Jan 18, 2011 10:37 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
It's not meant to be that serious
But I put massive risk for anyone that ended the year with a substantial injury history. I expect the starting INF to miss about a 120 games to injury and the OF to miss about 80 in adition to regular days off.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 18, 2011 10:42 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
What is serious is that the discussion has now moved from...
…stating this team isn’t very good because of supposed historical/likely production issues to shifting the focus on health concerns to justify being Debbie Downer about this team’s chances.
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 19, 2011 3:42 AM PST up reply actions
Why aren't both a real issue?
They aren’t that good AND have a huge likelihood of under-performing their projections
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 12:28 PM PST up reply actions
What the fuck is your point?
I mean I know the last thing this place needs is more meta, but I’m sorry.
You’re offended by all the anti-pessimism then go out of your way to insult the shit out of anybody who’s optimistic in your open? The hypocrisy is stunning.
It wasn’t a good idea when Nico did it, and it’s even worse here.
As usual, I appreciate the work you put into this but I don’t get it. If your point was that we have a lot of injuries and that might make it tough for us to contend, well, we knew that. You’re not wrong. But if you went out of your way to try to crush any hopes anybody had for success this season, you’re a fucking jackass. And I mean that.
You wonder why people question your fanhood, but then post something outlining reasons why we won’t contend. Incredible.
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
by hero66 on Jan 18, 2011 9:12 PM PST reply actions 11 recs
Wait. It was a bad idea when I wrote a piece about why the team might be pretty good?
Please not to lump me in with this fanpost.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
It was not nearly as bad as this
But the open of yours wasn’t exactly endearing to stat people either.
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
Wait. It was a bad idea when I wrote a piece about why the team might be pretty bad?
Please not to lump me in with that frontpage post
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 18, 2011 10:45 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I've got to agree here.
The opening paragraph is…a bad decision. Very.
by danmerqury on Jan 18, 2011 9:21 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
I agree about the opening
I don’t agree with the last two paragraphs, which are certainly flag worthy.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I flagged this.
This point could have been made without so many personal attacks.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 18, 2011 9:45 PM PST up reply actions
Then you should have also flagged DFA's post
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
DFA didn't call anyone a f**king jack**s directly.
DFA wrote one paragraph alluding to the attitude of some people; you directly insulted one person.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 18, 2011 10:14 PM PST up reply actions
It was an if, then statement
He is only calling him a jackass if he accepts the premise… My experience tells me that you can say whatever you want around here if you wordsmith your way around it like this. DFA is one of the best at it.
Well, I'm going to keep flagging such things as they jump out at me
If, then statements where it seems like the “If” is a given that result in the “then” being a direct insult seem like a direct insult to me. If the mods disagree, I’m sure they’ll let me know.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 19, 2011 9:33 AM PST up reply actions
The mods are pretty good at parsing "intent"
and not allowing clever personal insults if they’re clearly intended to insult.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
That's just using the letter of the law to get around CGVs.
I find that even more irritating, even if I agree with the general premise of what hero88 was trying to say.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
His entire post is a CGV.
I haven’t seen that much baiting since last year’s fly fishing convention.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
I've actually learned things in here.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 11:57 AM PST up reply actions
um fly fishing uses a lure, at least call it live bait
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 12:10 PM PST up reply actions
I know.
I made the assumption that it wouldn’t be taken literally. Apparently, that’s beyond what I can safely assume.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
It was a joke. Relax I thought it what you wrote was funny
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 1:32 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
+1 [I'm no coward]
True, it’s also flag-worthy at the same time. But if DFA routinely gets a free pass for using the term “dick” to label people he disagrees with…well…
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 19, 2011 3:50 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I disagree with him all the time and I don't recall him ever calling me that
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 3:51 AM PST up reply actions
i have used the term dick 58 out of 12616 comments on AN
many of them refer to personnel decisions or myself so basically 0.237% of the time is routinely?
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 11:54 AM PST up reply actions
It may not be "routinely" but it's probably a lot higher than average
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 11:55 AM PST up reply actions
eh basically Ive called i think maybe 10 people on this boad dicks at various points.
its not a lot and it is significantly under the number of times that other people call me an asshole.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 11:57 AM PST up reply actions
Meta!
Please help me! I’m drowning in meta again.
Here we go, with the realistic, statistical-minded folks playing their designated roles as skeptics and the cheerful optimistics playing their designated roles and then we all have the same argument over and over again.
I know it’s going to shock some of you, but I find both viewpoints worth reading, or I wouldn’t still be here. But I am tired of the dreary, personality-driven nonsense and bile that I must endure once I enter the comment thread (or even before that) because Bobby doesn’t like Jimmy or they’re replaying the same argument from last year.
But never mind all that. Let us wallow in the muck. Let us debate introductory sentences, and whether they’re mean or beyond the pale. Sigh…
by bear88 on Jan 18, 2011 9:30 PM PST reply actions 4 recs
Folks, can we just all unite and agree to hate bear88?
BURN HIM!!!!!!!!!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 18, 2011 9:31 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
You really shouldn't joke about something so serious, Nico.
by danmerqury on Jan 18, 2011 9:32 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
NEEDS MOAR ACTUAL BASEBALL GAMES!!!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Baysball?
I’m not sure what that is.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 18, 2011 9:46 PM PST up reply actions
This made me laugh Dan....
then I re-read it and I am assuming that you are just joking….or at least hoping that you are joking..
You really shouldn’t joke about something so serious, Nico.
There is no A in OFFENSE!!
by wacchampions on Jan 19, 2011 10:09 AM PST up reply actions
Well you should have mentioned something before I drowned you.
You need to learn to speak before you sink.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
but wasn't it you who turned Nico into a newt?
wait, that was a goat.
Is it spring yet?
by eastcoasta'sfan on Jan 20, 2011 6:28 AM PST up reply actions
I think I may be part of the problem
But I am tired of the dreary, personality-driven nonsense and bile that I must endure
And I’ve been thinking I need a break from this place and the personality-driven bullshit that I frequently become a part of. And with that…
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 19, 2011 4:12 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I like this post
and I also support AN banning posters from bringing up old posts in order to somehow “win” an false-argument over another poster. As well as bad language.
I will fall in line with anything that changes the vibe with what it is now, to something more positive. AN kind of is horrible to look at right now, and its 200% to do with “dreary, personality-driven nonsense and bile that I must endure once I enter the comment thread (or even before that) because Bobby doesn’t like Jimmy or they’re replaying the same argument from last year.”.
some people don't like when others dig up examples of them consistently lying.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 4:00 PM PST up reply actions
Maybe it's time for AN to vote some people off the island
cull the herd a little bit…
We can do it like the hotties poll.
Bob Geren was born in a suburban apartment complex he built with his own two hands.
by QueenOfCansAndJars on Jan 19, 2011 9:03 PM PST up reply actions
That's actually not a bad idea.
Those Greek city-states knew what they were doing.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I love bear88
Waffle House is good for two things: 1 – coffee; 2 – finding cheap whores -- Jennifer
by Leopold Bloom on Jan 19, 2011 11:51 PM PST up reply actions
Damn. I've been away
And I’ve lost my special place in your heart.
I once tore both my achilles tendons away from my growth plate in my feet during a cross country season.
It healed in three months and i have had hardly any recurring problems. So i think it is possible to put serious injuries behind you and hopefully this year some of them will do that. Now i understand that some of these players(coco, marky mark, etc.) are always injured but i dont see any harm in a glass half full approach. Of course i could be completely wrong.
Did I miss the part where you are a world class athelete an expected to preform great physical feats?
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 18, 2011 10:47 PM PST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
woah woah.
There is no reason to insult me or be rude here. I did not call you a ******* or say anything rude whatsoever, so why dont you take it easy. All I am trying to do is give an opinion and hear some positive feedback on if other people agree/disagree with anything i said. I did not know i had to be an world class athlete to share my opinion on a fan website. And people wonder why a lot of people stay away from commenting.
by Twan54321 on Jan 19, 2011 12:42 AM PST up reply actions 7 recs
Great point Twany
In fact, if you have ever heard Mike Moore speak, he was in a serious car accident in his teens, and had both knees utterly destroyed, to the point where it affected his overall growth as well. He went on to be dominant in the bigs and he never had another surgery.
I severely tore my left shoulder, shoving it 7 inches down off the clavicle 8 years ago. I went into surgery the next day, where they pull it back into place, drilled a 7 inch screw into my collarbone to hold it in place and hand braided the tendons to help them fuse back together. Am I a world class athlete? Well, I will let you be the judge of the level, but since then I moved to the North Shore of Oahu and learned how to become a big wave surfer, surfing up to 25 ft waves, and hit a fastball on a pro field yesterday over 300’. My shoulder has never given me a problem since, so I think you make a valid point and deserve to have it addressed in a civil and serious manner.
I have abandonment issues. Thanks Lew.
by OptimistPrime on Jan 19, 2011 4:56 AM PST up reply actions
Thank you for your honest reply.
I did not know Mike Moore had such an extensive injury before even playing proffessional baseball. Good for him for not letting it get in the way of his career and being able to perform at a very high level. BTW im curious, how is the big wave surfing? I have surfed a little bit but only on small 5-6 footers. What is it like being 25 feet up on a wave?
And my shoulder hurts every time i throw a baseball faster than 80 (which i use to do regularlyh) after dislocating it making a throw to second
and I have lost most of the spotty control I use to have. Whats your point?
Neither of us are professional athletes.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 11:45 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
No, you don't have to be to share your opinion. However, unless you are a world class athlete expected to preform at world class levels your "I healed" anecdote isn't applicable.
A normal person or even a casual athlete’s level of success with medical treatment will be radically different than a pro athletes specifically because you don’t routinely do things that are suppose to break human bodies.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 9:59 AM PST up reply actions
This is all I read into it.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Jan 19, 2011 10:20 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Exactly.
Instead of:
“I’m glad you were able to recover, but I doubt you were competing at the same kind of levels as professional baseball players. They ask completely different things of their bodies, and far more frequently.”
You got:
“Did I miss the part where you are a world class athlete an expected to preform great physical feats?”
And we wonder about how the “toxic atmosphere” around here gets perpetuated…
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on Jan 19, 2011 1:07 PM PST up reply actions 8 recs
It was a pretty rediculous statement
It’s like saying I hit sliders just fine in babe Ruth league so it’s really not that hard and crosby should be able to hit that pitch. It professional fling baseball at the highest level in the world not being a regular person.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 1:37 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Please explain how an individual's physical talents have anything to do with their body's ability to recover from injury?
Mantle was a tremendous talent, with huge successes. He did not, however, recover from those injuries. Instead, he succeeded in spite of the injuries.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
My shoulder prevented me from playing baseball after highschool
But doesn’t effect my normal life at all.
Therefore I have recovered, but not in the baseball sense.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
However, there MANY TJ surgeries performed with some recovering to continue MLB careers, and some that don't.
They are all at the same basic talent level. Their talent had nothing to do with their ability to recover, or not.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
Health is a talent.
Just like hand I coordination.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 3:09 PM PST up reply actions
My hand I coordination was at an all-time high around age 12
I spent a lot of time in my hand that year…
I think you mean to say
“Health is a skill”
Talent, is something you are born with. Skill is something you can learn. Yes, usually one must be talented to be highly skilled – but, I think one can learn to stay healthy. I think it’s a skill set. I think the majority of modern major leaguers are very poor at it. You could make the argument that some athletes, based on their genetic make up, are less likely to become injured, and I suppose you could then refer to THAT as talent. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think you’re really talking about what Will Carrol refers to “the skill of health.”
Yeah, it's right there next to the part where you know everything about everything.
Take your silver mod tubescreamer, your dr. z, your nocaster, put them in a pile and burn them. if god gave you a thousand years, you still couldn't touch this. you can't f***ing keep time to this.
by Elvez on Jan 19, 2011 8:58 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Well considering that that the poster isn't a professional athlete, it is clear I didn't miss it.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 10:12 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Actually, I find the fact that dfa has not recently been still advocating blowing the team up somewhat of a hopeful reading of the tea leaves
Or is that positive spin on my part?
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 10:01 PM PST reply actions
This off season has been so bad it should be a fireable offense
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 18, 2011 10:48 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Funny how guys who play on the team
seem to feel that this team has a chance to go all the way.
I have abandonment issues. Thanks Lew.
by OptimistPrime on Jan 19, 2011 4:57 AM PST up reply actions
With rare exceptions, baseball players are not particularly well educated
Because the best of ’em are often drafted out of high school, and over-thinking has a real negative impact on performance.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Christ
You’re really really reaching for outrage here.
I also wouldn’t care if the players were pessimistic.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Misread your tone then
my bad
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Right, because they're really going to come out and tell the media "this team is a dung-pile, we're all really just going through the motions"...
We have no idea what they really think, assuming they think about it at all.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
yeah there is. Im working on that post. My computer died on me tho, so its been much slower going than usual
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 3:10 PM PST up reply actions
i thought this thread would be about eric chavez...
in related news gil meche retired due to injuries and walked away from $12.4 million…
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones."
-BB 07/27/05
If he can walk he can pitch.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 18, 2011 11:29 PM PST up reply actions
I had no idea
Nolan Ryan posted on AN.
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
hell hath no fury like a Cowboys fan scorned. -Leopold Bloom
by MissOakland on Jan 18, 2011 11:45 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Hee
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 3:32 AM PST up reply actions
and the Royals rejoice!
now watch them sign Chavez ;-)
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
damn you DFA!!!
I read this and when I got up to get another beverage I simultaneously stubbed my toe and tweaked my back and now I’m on the DL. So much for my chances of competing with Kouzmanoff for 3B ABs… oh wtf it’s all good, I can’t hit a slider anyway.
Empires may crumble, FIP statistics may lose their meaning, but only a Keetsa mattress puts years back on your life while you're sleeping.
by emperor nobody on Jan 18, 2011 10:28 PM PST reply actions
Neither can Kouz.
oh wait…
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
it's all so clear to me now
you’re actually bobby crosby
Is it spring yet?
by eastcoasta'sfan on Jan 20, 2011 6:30 AM PST up reply actions
My thoughts
The A’s are more talented than last year and should be better than last year, but they do have some definite injury risks.
We have to hope the most important people last and anyone who is called on to play when the inevitable injuries happen don’t stink too much.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
This is a measured statement
I guess the problem with it is that with regard to so many critical components with this team the answer is Hope! and not: we are just better. Hope may sell tickets but it doesn’t win baseball games
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 18, 2011 11:00 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Yeah, but in the end all most of us can do as fans is hope for the best and debate what we choose to
I just lean toward the optimistic side more often than not.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
To each their own
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 18, 2011 11:20 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
If you agree that the best projections put most teams within +/- 9 (or so) games of their actual win total
Then “hope” is all we or 27 or so other teams have. The pool of “just better” players is vanishingly small, especially those who are cost-controlled to a certain extent and have a clean bill of health.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 19, 2011 1:13 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Flagged this, because it isn't over-the-top agressive in tone, and accepts the A's situation instead of blaming it all oon poor management
Well, no, actually, I rec’d it.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 20, 2011 8:04 AM PST up reply actions
All of these injury concerns are considered by any decent projection system
What this means to me is that we have a high variability roster. If we get the average amount of expected health, then we likely don’t make the playoffs*. If we get worse, then we might be back below .500. But if all we do is get better than expected health, then are projection might catch the Rangers.
I realize that I’m stating the obvious here, but my point is that we have a $68m roster that realistically projects somewhere between 83-86 wins but is more capable than the average team of outperforming (or underperforming) it’s mean projection because of factors like health. This is important and valuable for a team that has a mean projection somewhere between 5-7 wins below its main competition**.
for simplicity I am assuming that all other things are equal
*my stated win projections are just educated guesses
"Juuuuust a bit outside" - Harry Doyle
by ArunisArun on Jan 18, 2011 11:03 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Auto-format fail
The bold line should have one asterisk and not be bold.
The line below with one asterisk should have two asterisks.
Also, I just caught an are where there should obviously be an our.
"Juuuuust a bit outside" - Harry Doyle
by ArunisArun on Jan 18, 2011 11:07 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I agree with most of this
However playing time and health related poor performanceis one of the leastunderstood concepts in projections. Many systems just produce rate stats and then have playing time asigned to them by people. Also there is no actual way to project recovery from injury with projection systems that we currently have. For example it will think a guy with tjs who missed a year will perform the same as the guy with the torn labrum all else being equal.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 18, 2011 11:16 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
If the Indians from Major League can contend
with a dead guy on their spring training invitee list, then the A’s can contend with some bumps and bruises.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 18, 2011 11:32 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Aren't we all at MASSIVE RISK!?
We are all day to day, right?
Odds of injury from fireworks: 19,556 to 1
Odds of injury from shaving: 6,585 to 1
Odds of injury from using a chain saw: 4,464 to 1
Odds of injury from mowing the lawn: 3,623 to 1
Odds of fatally slipping in bath or shower: 2,232 to 1
Odds of drowning in a bathtub: 685,000 to 1
Odds of being killed on a 5-mile bus trip: 500,000,000 to 1
Odds of being killed sometime in the next year in any sort of transportation accident: 77 to 1
Odds of being killed in any sort of non-transportation accident: 69 to 1
Odds of being struck by lightning: 576,000 to 1
Odds of being killed by lightning: 2,320,000 to 1
Odds of being murdered: 18,000 to 1
Odds of getting away with murder: 2 to 1
Odds of being the victim of serious crime in your lifetime: 20 to 1
Odds of dating a supermodel: 88,000 to 1
Odds of being considered possessed by Satan: 7,000 to 1
Sure, seeing Rosy hobbling around in a walking boot as he recovers from surgery is disheartening, but spend 5 minutes with the guy and watch him work with Walt Horn on rehabbing his foot and it reminds me that you can’t quantify heart. It’s made me realize there is a 6th tool. Shooty Babbitt had it. 25th round pick, no stand out tools, but the man would play with his arms torn off. Rosy is the same way. And after chatting with Walt, 34 years with the A’s, and having seen just about everyone come through the A’s system, no one really escapes the injury bug. All baseball teams, all players, are on equal footing, we are fragile and play with varying degrees of injury or pain.
I have abandonment issues. Thanks Lew.
by OptimistPrime on Jan 18, 2011 11:42 PM PST reply actions 4 recs
my Pastor was preaching a sermon once
and was making a point about being prepared to die and said “What if you walked out this door after service and got hit by a bus?” All I could picture was someone walking out the front door and having a bus fly through our giant parking lot, hitting them cartoon style.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
don't say things like that!
you are describing an injury that has not yet happened to the A’s.
you are tempting fate.
Is it spring yet?
by eastcoasta'sfan on Jan 20, 2011 6:31 AM PST up reply actions
knowing the A's luck a Bus will drive through the infield and hit Cahill.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
glad he is doing well but he is still expected to miss some of the spring.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 11:40 AM PST up reply actions
MASSIVE RISK
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 19, 2011 7:45 AM PST up reply actions
Actually, now that Cable is gone,
I’d say the other coaches have a much smaller chance of injury
"It takes no talent to give great effort." - Chris Petersen
by pfeifer on Jan 19, 2011 8:13 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I believe that every team could claim the same problem, dfa. The difference is that you have assigned arbitrary assessments to the injuries.
Yankees Tickets Updated: Wednesday January 19, 7:40 AM
GO
Injuries By Team Angels Astros Athletics Blue Jays Braves Brewers Cardinals Cubs Diamondbacks Dodgers Giants Indians Mariners Marlins Mets Nationals Orioles Padres Phillies Pirates Rangers Rays Reds Red Sox Rockies Royals Tigers Twins White Sox Yankees
New York Yankees
Stats Schedule Roster Injuries Transactions Salaries
Date Player Status Injury
10/20/2010 Mark Teixeira Day-to-Day Strained right hamstring
09/18/2010 Mark Teixeira Day-to-Day Broken right toe, bruised right thumb
09/13/2010 Nick Swisher Day-to-Day Bruised left knee
09/13/2010 Brett Gardner Day-to-Day Sore right wrist
09/05/2010 Austin Kearns Day-to-Day Sore thumb
09/02/2010 Nick Swisher Day-to-Day Sore left knee
08/28/2010 Mark Teixeira Day-to-Day Bruised right thumb
08/25/2010 Nick Swisher Day-to-Day Sore left knee
08/21/2010 Alex Rodriguez 15-Day DL Left calf strain
08/16/2010 Nick Swisher Day-to-Day Left game – right forearm tightness
08/16/2010 Lance Berkman 15-Day DL Sprained right ankle
08/08/2010 A.J. Burnett Day-to-Day Back spasms
08/07/2010 Alex Rodriguez Day-to-Day Left leg contusion
07/27/2010 Jorge Posada Day-to-Day Sore left knee
07/23/2010 Nick Swisher Day-to-Day Sore left Achilles
07/19/2010 Andy Pettitte 15-Day DL Strained left groin – out 4-6 weeks
07/17/2010 A.J. Burnett Day-to-Day Cuts on right hand
07/08/2010 Damaso Marte 60-Day DL Inflamed left shoulder
07/04/2010 Jorge Posada Day-to-Day Left game – left hand injury
06/30/2010 Brett Gardner Day-to-Day Bruised wrist
06/19/2010 Derek Jeter Day-to-Day Bruised right heel
06/13/2010 Marcus Thames 15-Day DL Strained hamstring
06/10/2010 Alex Rodriguez Day-to-Day Left game – right groin tightness
06/05/2010 Marcus Thames Day-to-Day Stiff neck
06/05/2010 Sergio Mitre 15-Day DL Oblique strain
06/01/2010 Mark Teixeira Day-to-Day Bruised left foot
05/31/2010 Derek Jeter Day-to-Day Left game – Hamstring tightness
05/21/2010 Javier Vazquez Day-to-Day Bruised right index finger
05/19/2010 Marcus Thames Day-to-Day Left game – Sprained ankle
05/17/2010 Jorge Posada 15-Day DL Fractured right foot – out 3-4 weeks
05/12/2010 Nick Swisher Day-to-Day Sore left biceps
05/09/2010 Alfredo Aceves 60-Day DL Bulging disk in lower back
05/08/2010 Nick Johnson 60-Day DL Sore right wrist
05/07/2010 Robinson Cano Day-to-Day Sore left knee
05/06/2010 Andy Pettitte Day-to-Day Left elbow stiffness
05/03/2010 Jorge Posada Day-to-Day Left game – right calf tightness
05/02/2010 Curtis Granderson 15-Day DL Strained left groin
04/30/2010 Lance Berkman Day-to-Day Left groin strain
04/28/2010 Jorge Posada Day-to-Day Left game – right knee contusion
04/14/2010 Chan Ho Park 15-Day DL Strained right hamstring
04/02/2010 Nick Johnson Day-to-Day Sore right knee
04/01/2010 Francisco Cervelli Day-to-Day Strained left hamstring
Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/teams/new-york-yankees/injuries.html#ixzz1BVFjLQeR
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
Four DL stints for the enitre 2011 team? Thats way better than what the A's have. Also the Yankees are more talented in general
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 10:03 AM PST up reply actions
Actually, they had 11 DL stints in 2010. Level of talent has nothing to do with a discussion of injuries.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
It does to an extent.
If your team is more talented you can withstand injuries. If your bench is more talented you have better players filling in as well.
by Billy Frijoles on Jan 19, 2011 10:08 AM PST up reply actions
Yes the '89 A's had lots of injuries but they still hung in there because the pitching
was superb. The fact that there was a big dropoff from Canseco to whomever didn’t matter that much because they still had Stewart, Moore, Parker, etc.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 10:11 AM PST up reply actions
No it doesn't, because his premise is not in the quality of replacement, rather in the risk of an individual player's injury.
For that matter, Texas used the DL 25 times in 2010, compared to the A’s using it 23 times. I believe that some teams use the DL for personnel management, instead of injury management.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
It absolutely does. If you are a true talent 95 win team and you lose 5 wins to injury you are still at true talent 90 win team and probably going to make the playoffs
if you are a true talent 84 win team and you lose 5 wins to injury your 1/5 playoff chances disappear faster than Usain Bolt and you are likely to finish under 500
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 10:21 AM PST up reply actions
the idea that there are true-talent 95 win teams is debatable
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 19, 2011 12:56 PM PST up reply actions
Boston looks pretty good to me
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 4:16 PM PST up reply actions
The thing is, you don't actually 'lose wins to injury' per se. You can rarely point to any game and say: 'If [starting player] was in there, they'd have won that game"
Even a sub-par replacement doesn’t necessarily cause the team to do more poorly during any one player’s stay on the DL. It does seem to matter, yes, I’ll grant you when there are multiple starting players out at the same time.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 20, 2011 8:19 AM PST up reply actions
Qua?
If Im understanding you correctly this is blatantly factually inaccurate.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 10:21 AM PST up reply actions
I'm back. How so? re: 'blatantly factually inaccurate'. It's a semantic point you're not getting. You want to talk about WAR, I guess. I want to talk about games won or lost.
Which game can you point to and say: “if Brett Anderson had pitched today, or if Coco had been in CF, we’d have won this game”. The team lost the game because it lost, not because of who was on the field. Certainly, I can remember expecting “a real pitchers’ duel” when looking at the matchup before a game, and then both pitchers (both actual aces, not phony ones) get lit up. Or just one does. And there were several games the A’s took the field with absolutely the most pathetic lineup I could imagine, and still won.
On the other hand, there was a game where in a critical situation with (can’t remember, 2 on or bases loaded), Matt Carson made a disastrously ill-advised dive for a ball he should have just cut off, and the runs all scored. In that game, his poor play did in fact determine the outcome. (Still, even in that game, had he hypothetically done the right thing, it wouldn’t have necessarily led to the A’s winning, but his wrong play did, because the A’s never caught up).
Statistically, you can point to true talent level and say, the A’s have no business winning right now with all these replacement level players on the field, and yet, they might still win a game or two. Statistically, you can say their odds of winning go down with a sub-par replacement on the field, but you can’t say the team “lost such and such a game to injury”.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 21, 2011 8:15 AM PST up reply actions
well
I get what your trying to say, but I think it’s safe to assume that if Brett Anderson gets injured and Bobby Cramer fills in for 6 starts in the rotation while Anderson is out, the A’s are less likely to win those games than if Anderson were pitching them, simply because, by all accounts and statistical history we have on the two of them, Anderson would likely give up fewer runs. I know there are a number of variables in there including defense, park, but at it’s most fundamental, Anderson is less likely, statistically speaking, to suck!
by oakballnack on Jan 21, 2011 10:04 AM PST up reply actions
I meant to say
isn’t that just about the same as saying they lost those games “to injury”? Really you can color it what ever shade of pink you want, but if Anderson hadn’t been injured necessitating his replacement with Cramer, then the A’s would have been more likely to win.
I do think, however, that one of the differences this year is that If Anderson does go down, you potentially have 1)Outman 2)Harden/McCarthy 3)Ross 4)Cramer 5) Simmons available to fill in – assuming they aren’t all injured as well…which is QUITE an assumption.
by oakballnack on Jan 21, 2011 10:10 AM PST up reply actions
whereas last year
you only had Cramer.
I will now stop replying to my own comments :P
by oakballnack on Jan 21, 2011 10:13 AM PST up reply actions
nothing wrong with it - I do it all the time
Just don’t argue with yourself.
Oh. You just did…
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 21, 2011 10:14 AM PST up reply actions
And by the way, we wouldn't even be having this discussion if I hadn't been unfairly accused of being 'blatantly factually inaccurate', OK, so let dfa defend himself...
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 21, 2011 10:14 AM PST up reply actions
True. Of course. But the name for that event is not 'wins lost to injury'.
It is: team currently has a lower expected win value with Anderson replaced by Cramer, or something of the sort.
How many injuries the team has at any one time seems to make a big difference, too.
By the way, Cramer’s numbers in his brief stint were not that bad. it’s mostly that people do not expect him to be able to keep them up, since he was playing at such a low level so late in his career.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 21, 2011 10:12 AM PST up reply actions
right
I have serious doubts about Cramers ability to work his magic the 2nd time arround. Remember when DiNardo put together a string of good starts? didn’t last too long.
by oakballnack on Jan 21, 2011 10:14 AM PST up reply actions
I don't even want to remember DiNardo, for what it's worth...
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 21, 2011 10:15 AM PST up reply actions
You have a good point in that the timing of injuries has a huge impact on the effects
Which is another reason that projections can’t account for injuries very well, especially when it comes to pitchers.
For instance, if some starters miss time but their absences somehow don’t overlap the negative effects will be much less pronounced than if all five were to go down at once. In other words, if Harden’s 10 healthy starts correlate with Anderson’s 10 missed starts all is well.
I fail to see the point of this
If the absence of a player causes a team to win 9 games instead of 10, that absence cost the team a game, even if it did not literally result in one particular game where a particular play made or not made inescapably determined the outcome. Those plays are rare enough in baseball to begin with.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Well, it's not just about replacement
It’s also about, even if you have a terrible replacement, is the rest of your team talented enough to win games despite having a terrible replacement player for your star?
by Billy Frijoles on Jan 19, 2011 10:22 AM PST up reply actions
Reading what I said helps. How many of those players will be back? Im counting four
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 10:13 AM PST up reply actions
Reading what I said also helps.
Predicting future injuries based on past record, only makes sense if the players actually have control of the injuries.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
I don't understand the part about players having control of their injuries. What does that mean?
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 10:23 AM PST up reply actions
Spontaneous can not be included as some sort of injury tendency.
They are totally random, and happen to healthy players as well as those who are “injury” prone. Coco breaking his pinky is not evidence of a propensity towards injuries.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
So you mean freak injuries shouldn't count. Agreed
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 10:33 AM PST up reply actions
Bottles up!
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
I disagree
Bone strength is in no sense constant from person to person. Some players have a habit of suffering “freak” injuries.
Obviously they’re less predictive than something like a pulled groin, but less predictive =/= not predictive.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I guess Samuel L Jackson would agree with you
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 4:16 PM PST up reply actions
I read what you wrote which was this
I believe that every team could claim the same problem, dfa. The difference is that you have assigned arbitrary assessments to the injuries
Which doesn’t fking say anything about control of injuries past record or the fact that youre claiming things that you didn’t say.
Are some injuries freak? Yes. Morales isn’t going to get piled on again and break his leg, but health absolutely is a skill that some players have and others don’t. Furthermore, past injuries both are good predictors of future injuries and make them more likely to occur.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 10:24 AM PST up reply actions
This quote is not what you suggested I was reading wrong.
You were pointing out that you were looking at 2011, and my response was that I had posted 11 DL stints in 2010.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
No my response was that 7 of those stints came from players who weren't on the team.
please read.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 11:41 AM PST up reply actions
true
I think the broken finger from getting beaned really shouldn’t count against a guy in making him more “injury prone”.
Chronic injuries are what we should be focusing on. Back problems, etc.
by Billy Frijoles on Jan 19, 2011 10:24 AM PST up reply actions
And soft tissue injuries
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 10:25 AM PST up reply actions
soft tissue injuries are a huge problem
getting hit with pitches isn’t
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 11:41 AM PST up reply actions
I think there's more to it than that
I think I understand you, and I think you’re correct in saying that there are ways that pitchers control injury. Think about Harden, Prior and Wood, I read an article (I think it was about Tim Lincecum specifically, but it talked about biomechanics, I think the word was, in general) that seemed to imply that the the types of motions they had made them more prone to injury, whereas Lincecum’s motion utilizes friendly biomechanics and motions that the body has evolved to handle
more naturally, and thus reduces his injury risk.
Also combined with workout regimen (I think about Halladay here, from what I’ve read his workout regimen is phenomenal and he gets injured relatively infrequently, especially over the last 5 years). I think it’s pretty obvious that if you don’t work hard to stay in shape and go the extra mile, playing so much baseball will catch up to you, so that’s something that can be controlled.
But I also believe there are intangibles in everyone’s body function and structure, and I do believe that there are players more likely to be injured than others regardless of mechanics or the factors they control, but based on how their bodies work. For every Tejada, Ripken etc. there are a hundred guys who work their butt off to stay in shape and still wind up missing games. I don’t think that the “iron men” had some secret that nobody else has ever had about how exactly to eat, condition and control movements and biomechanics in order to avoid injury; I think they were also blessed with a tremendous amount of grit, but also just physical gifts in addition to their talent.
So from that I draw that playing baseball is hard on a body, and bodies have different levels of durability. Certainly using injury history seems a crude way to try to analyze these levels of durability, but it seems to be the only one available to the laymen (talking about myself here, maybe others have better ways!)
Also, reading down I think that “freak injuries” should not be used to skew the statistics exactly, if you’re calculating how often someone gets injured or trying to predict how likely they are to be. But as was said below, If a player is going to slide headfirst often or run into the wall often than they will be more likely to suffer freak injuries.
For instance, a quick Google search told me that Crisp broke his index finger in 2006, again sliding into third. I’m not saying twice is a trend, nor am I saying he shouldn’t slide headfirst just because it turned out poorly a couple times, but I am saying that IMO the fact that it happened the same way both times is significant enough to be considered.
Thanks for your time!
"The world is your oyster, but you're allergic to shellfish" -Apathy and Other Small Victories
by IChaseFrisbees on Jan 20, 2011 10:22 AM PST up reply actions
yeah, what a shock, right?
We had terrible injuries last year and still were competitive with a horrible piece of shit lineup.
Every at-bat was like having to shoot a free throw to win the game and having to pick shaq, duncan, dwight howard, deandre jordan, or andris biedrins. Every fucking at bat.
So I’m still optimistic that we can be a contending team this year.
by Billy Frijoles on Jan 19, 2011 10:11 AM PST up reply actions
Wait we were competitive last year? Did I miss something? I thought we finished 9 games back?
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 10:15 AM PST up reply actions
we were competitive
We didn’t finish strong but we were within striking distance.
And by competitive I also mean game-to-game competitiveness, i.e. it wasn’t like watching a true losing squad, like the Indians, Pirates, Royals, Mariners, etc., that really put a team on the field that you knew was going to lose. I actually cared about listening to the games on the radio because I felt we had a chance.
Also much of the season we were in first or less than 9 games back. It wasn’t like we were 9 back all season long, hence the competitiveness.
Don’t get me wrong, the Rangers were the class of the division, but we fielded a competitive team with our shit ton of injuries and crap lineup. We actually have improved our lineup now (plus much more bullpen depth) so I think we are in a better position.
I guess it’s sort of a yes, I acknowledge that what you say is true, but it has been true for years, so well, Kyli’s right, basically.
by Billy Frijoles on Jan 19, 2011 10:20 AM PST up reply actions
The "game to game competitiveness" was good and the defense kept the team in
games. That should be true again if Pennington, Kouzmanoff and Ellis stay healthy
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 10:24 AM PST up reply actions
The last time that we were 5 games back was in June.
Also we were all of two games over 500 at that point. To say we were competitive is revisionist history.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 11:22 AM PST up reply actions
No its really not.
Our chances for winning the division were in the 5% range in july.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 12:10 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
or, it's an opinion that you disagree with.
wah wah wah wah wah % MASSIVE INJURY wah wah wah.
Does that make you feel better?
by Billy Frijoles on Jan 19, 2011 1:22 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
It's not an opinion
It’s BP’s playoff odds tool
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 1:41 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Did you mean that it would be funnier if all of us were in a coma?
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
by Tutu-late on Jan 19, 2011 1:56 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I consider the subject line ending to be a comma
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 3:37 PM PST up reply actions
illuminate me... im still apparently missing it
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 4:01 PM PST up reply actions
He wants the comma before "tool"
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 4:01 PM PST up reply actions
oh ok... thats kinda mean though
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 4:09 PM PST up reply actions
Yes but it made me chuckle
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 4:13 PM PST up reply actions
Im a retaliator not an instigator.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 4:46 PM PST up reply actions
than what?
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 4:54 PM PST up reply actions
Maybe he just loosened his belt?
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
The A's are built to withstand injury better than the Rangers and Angels
No one player is so good we suffer a huge dropoff without them and we have at least 1 capable bakcup everywhere and more than 1 in many cases. If The Rangers lose Hamilton, or Lewis or Wilson they would have a serious problem on their hands. If we lose Barton or Anderson or Braden… it hurts, but not nearly as bad.
And the Rangers are, in my opinion, more likely to have a substantial injury to a player or players they cannot afford to lose.
The dropoff from Anderson/Braden to Cramer is pretty big
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 10:01 AM PST up reply actions
thats just not accurate. I mean our starters aren't even talented enough to win the division, how are we going to do that with a rotation of
Cahill Gio Cramer Mcarthy and Brett Tomko when Anderson Braden Ross and Harden are all hurt and Outman isn’t back?
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 10:06 AM PST up reply actions
If that happens we won't win.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 10:09 AM PST up reply actions
if that happens well win 70 games or so
your definition of winning seems to be vague :-P
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 10:16 AM PST up reply actions
You got me. I should have said "win the division"
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 10:20 AM PST up reply actions
Not if, when
Apparently. Projecting 5 starters down at once is a bit harsh, even for these guys. But while we’re at it, we’re in big trouble when Bailey, Wuertz, Balfour, Breslow, Fuentes, Devine, Ziegler, and Ross get stuck in that clown car. Damn clowns always scared me.
five? Im only projecting two down in Braden and Anderson.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 12:11 PM PST up reply actions
Only two of those are actually starters
Ross Harden and Outman are already hurt.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 12:21 PM PST up reply actions
As far as I know Ross and Harden are heading into ST healthy
And Outman should be close to 100% health-wise. It’s fair to allow more time for him to regain his control though. Ross should start at AAA and be an emergency starter until he blows his arm out (damn whack ass delivery) and Harden is a big question mark, I’ll give you that. I really hope we get to see how he handles the pen though some of us have been clamoring for his PENmanship for years.
Rich Harden is always hurt.
It’s just a matter of whether or not the medical staff has figured it out yet.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
I'm surprised he came back actually
he seemed pretty hurt when he left
and yet he was still worth 3 Wins despite spending a majority of his games on a hospital bed.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 11:25 AM PST up reply actions
I think Brett Anderson has a far greater risk of injury than any of the rangers pitchers except Webb.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 11:26 AM PST up reply actions
Yea I will give you that
Anderson is my top concern and would represent our largest drop off. His value/risk is similar to that of Kinsler and perhaps Cruz, but less than Hamilton.
And his replacement would be better than the replacement for Wilson or Lewis.
not true. the rangers have much better rotational replacements than we do.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 11:42 AM PST up reply actions
ZiPS has Cramer at an 80 ERA+, Ross 78 and Outman 86
Rangers have Hunter 96, Feldman 97, Beltre 92 and Harrison 91. Not to mention Kirkman 89. I’m really surprised how much better this group is projected.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 11:51 AM PST up reply actions
Also they have my favorite Scheppers as well as Main
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 12:24 PM PST up reply actions
Maun is not that good
Scheppers is not a starter. Also he’s also known for being a huge injury risk.
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
I think he will start and start well
of course ill concede the huge injury risk though
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 4:57 PM PST up reply actions
He sucked as a starter last season
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
I think he will do better this year.
Its just what I think.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 5:56 PM PST up reply actions
Eh?
Wasn’t Main dealt to the Giants for Molina?
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
he was
the comparison being made needs a little tidying up.
hunter is the rangers fifth starter so he shouldnt be involved. main is on the giants (and has 4 awful starts above A ball). scheppers is a reliever. harrison is terrible.
its mccarthy, ross, and outman for the a’s, and feldman, beltre, and kirman for the rangers. six fairly equivalent guys, each with their merits.
martin perez scares me though.
Holland scares me
I loved that guy in the minors. I mean, I thought he was essentially on a par with Cahill and only a hair below Anderson in skill level.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
...
Reading comprehension is awesome. Try it sometime!
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I wish I could understand that
But then I’ll have to try reading comprehension in which case you win. Can’t have that.
PS, I’m just joking. Apparently I need to point that out…
I've been misquoted or misattributed too many times to find jokes about it funny, I'm afraid
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
i was watching the start where he was injured.
all of a sudden his delivery looked awkward and his velocity dropped into the 80s. of course he came back and threw well in the playoffs, but i think hes the biggest health risk of the young pitchers in either rotation. the upside is clearly there though.
Cramer is 31 and has made FOUR starts in the big leagues
why on earth do people think he’ll be anything at all?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Which makes you moniker all the more ironic
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 3:55 PM PST up reply actions
They do have Izturis and Rivera
Manny and Vlad are still available
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 11:18 AM PST up reply actions
why haven't the angels signed vlad to DH?
by Billy Frijoles on Jan 19, 2011 11:49 AM PST up reply actions
They might be thinking of Napoli there I guess
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 11:51 AM PST up reply actions
Eh?
Last year they won 90 games with Kinsler, Cruz and Hamilton missing a month apiece. David Murphy is the best outfield backup on either team, and they can easily replace any injury to an infielder by slotting Young in at the position.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Ok this is nearing the point of ridiculousness
I am just as guilty as some on here for jumping on one side of the sunshine/shitstorm bandwagon and maybe not putting in quite enough effort to find that more realistic middle-ground, but it’s starting to get out of control around here. There is so much back and forth bickering and cheap shots, and the sad thing is we all root for the SAME FUCKING TEAM!! Looking at certain threads lately you would think half of the posters were slegnA fans, and there was a pissing match going on between A’s fans and fans of division rivals.
It’s becoming more and more difficult for some to come on this site and post because chances are there is somebody who doesn’t share their opinion, and those people are sure as fuck gonna let you know about it. It would be nice to find a happy-medium where we can all just be fans of the A’s, and not be on an hourly mission to rain on someone’s parade and make every attempt possible to prove them wrong. I’m not sitting here saying this is how the entire AN population is because we all know that’s not the case, however it’s becoming increasingly more saturated with negativity in one way or another around here lately and I really don’t think it’s worth it.
It’s obvious there is a split crowd here on AN when it comes to this teams’ chances in the immediate/distant future. That’s ok, opinions are like assholes, everybody’s got em. Expressing an opinion and arguing it with passion is one thing. However these back and forth pissing matches, overly heated arguments, and borderline personal attack reactions around here lately aren’t going to sway people one way or the other. Most of us here are hardcore A’s fans in one way or another so I completely understand the passion, but at this point can’t we all just agree to disagree and let the fucking season play out?
Spring training starts next month. We’re likely looking at the team that we will be entering ST with barring an unexpected trade. I think we can all agree that the A’s will be fielding at least a “winning” team, with at least a decent chance for a really good season. There’s also a decent chance we suffer a rash of injuries from our injury-prone players, lots of regression and underperformance from others and end up with a sub-.500 ballclub. The beauty of this game is that nobody, ever, is going to be able to predict what is going to happen from day to day throughout the season. There are just too many factors involved. I am perfectly happy knowing we improved the team from 2010, and stand a fighting chance within the division in 2011. Even if Texas does look like the legitimate favorites. Regardless of what happens between now and October, it is completely out of our hands so let’s just say fuck it, sit back and enjoy the ride.
by JPShark on Jan 19, 2011 9:39 AM PST reply actions 6 recs
On DeJesus
The entries on his list make it seem long, but he’s really not as injury prone as he appears. DDJ does have his tweaks and bruises every year, but I’ve never thought, “Man, he sure spends a lot of time not playing.”
Aside from his season ending injury last year, (in which he was attempting to make an exceptional catch against the wall at Yankee Stadium; his thumb was bent in a crease there), he was on his way to a healthy and productive 2010.
He’s spent generally less time on the DL from year-to-year. I don’t see any reason why that trend won’t continue.
I had to rec this
Mostly because it was an easy-to-read posts, easy-to-understand categories (low, hi, massive) and made me laugh.
Because of the varied recovery times of our players, potential acquisitions, and potential other injuries, I could see our opening day roster look quite different.
Also I think Carter is going to make the roster one way or another. And I would put his risk at very low. Or pretty much nil if he is a DH.
Anyways, this whole post was pretty funny, and you do make a point that we really have not focused on, so yeah, rec’d.
Still optimistic about the team, and happy we have a new medical staff and trainer!
by Billy Frijoles on Jan 19, 2011 10:06 AM PST reply actions
I can't see Carter making the team
He would take Conor Jackson’s spot if anything, and Beane seems intent on filling that spot with Conor Jackson.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 19, 2011 10:09 AM PST up reply actions
Ya I don't see Carter starting the season on the bench. He might end up there if they contend.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 10:10 AM PST up reply actions
Perhaps the only possible person who would be a WORSE choice to fill the spot than Chris Carter...
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Worried most about IF depth
Granted, if 2 SP’s went down, that would be devastating, especially given that the #5 slot is unsettled. But I’m most concerned about IF depth. Given Rosales’ injury, if any of the starters is out for a sustained period, it’s going to get ugly. Sogard or Tolleson coming off the bench for a game or two is fine, but as a starter?
Tolleson's DFA so Sogard's our starting SS at this minute
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 10:34 AM PST up reply actions
I wouldn't be surprised to see a decent utility SS added before spring training
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
This makes more sense than a sideways move at 3rd base.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
Why not wait until then to DFA Tolleson?
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 19, 2011 11:23 AM PST up reply actions
I have no idea
Didn’t see that DFA coming.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
but you did see this one
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 3:11 PM PST up reply actions
Why would they if they don't think it's very good?
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 11:20 AM PST up reply actions
Pt did say they were an 84 win team a while back.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 19, 2011 11:24 AM PST up reply actions
thats what I have their true talent as.
I think the risk of a 75 Win team is just as great or greater than the risk of a 93 Win team.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 11:43 AM PST up reply actions
What's the 93 win scenario? I'm not seeing it.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 11:56 AM PST up reply actions
Everyone is healthy and breaks out (non herepes category)?
Anderson puts up 4 WAR
Cahill Puts up 3 WAR
Gio Puts up 3 WAR
Braden puts up 3 WAR
Blackhole 5th starter is 1 WAR
Bullpen puts up 8 WAR
22 WAR for pitchers
Suzuki 3
Barton 4
Ellis 2.5
Pennington 2.5
Kouz 2
DDJ 3
Willingham 3
Coco 3
Matsui 2
Bench 4
Which gets you to a 95 win team
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 12:08 PM PST up reply actions 5 recs
I'm rec'ing this for all those who said that you can't be optimistic if you want to be
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 12:20 PM PST up reply actions
if you squint hard enough its sorta realistic.
I just expect 5-7 of those players to miss significant time.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 12:22 PM PST up reply actions
Why though?
We changed our medical team. I just don’t see how this roster is any different to when we were a successful team. Pretty much all of Beane’s teams have had the potential to win 90+ if they don’t get hurt. You can say you expect 5-7 players to miss significant time, but the Rangers and Angels are hanging by even thinner strings.
Look at the injury histories.
I expect Coco Ellis Pentington Anderson Braden and Harden to miss significant amount of time Kouz, DDJ, Willingham, Bailey, and 2 other relief pitchers to miss some time.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 3:16 PM PST up reply actions
I guess thats true
We will stink if all those players miss lots of time. That is indeed the worst case scenario. I have no idea why you would think the worst case scenario would actually happen though.
sigh.
Because every player on that list except Kouz has missed a good amount of time recently?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Because it did last year?
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 3:25 PM PST up reply actions
But I thought we were supposed to make predictions independent from previous years?
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
if something happens in the past it is more likely to happen in the future.
like the sun rising in the east
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 4:23 PM PST up reply actions
Cool! Like Kouz' 16+UZR!
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
And Jimmie Foxx hitting 50+ HR for the A's!
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 4:38 PM PST up reply actions
See? Things ARE looking up for the A's
Lets have a beer( or wine, or vodka, or…)
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
Or just beer
There’s been enough whine around here lately as it is
it does make it more likely that it will happen in the future
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 4:47 PM PST up reply actions
So I can now anticipate a great fielding 32rd baseman
AND 50+ hrs!!! I’m stoked!
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
Sorry, the excitement got to me. Of course I meant 3rd baseman.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
I have no idea wiskey tango foxtrot you are talking about
please make some semblance of sense.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 4:55 PM PST up reply actions
Its more likely that Kouz will have another 16+UZR, and Foxx is going to hit 50+ HRs for us.
2011 is looking up!
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
fox is dead and more likely does not equal will
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 4:58 PM PST up reply actions
Aw, man! What a bummer!
Wait a minute! Since Braden threw ONE No Hitter, he is more likely to throw MORE! COOL! I’m still stoked about 2011!
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
You think that's the worst case scenario?
Friend, you have not spent nearly enough time thinking about worst case scenarios.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
STOP BEING SO DAMN PESSIMISTIC ABOUT BARTON.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Did you see below where I listed him as the only good thing on the team?
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 1:44 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
4 WAR is pessimistic. I'm expecting upwards of 8.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
I have an 8. Do I hear a 9? Going once...
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
Let's not get carried away.
Barton can’t pitch.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
MOVE THE RUBBER TO THIRD BASE THEN
GEEZ
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Jan 19, 2011 2:11 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
shit. I didn't think of that.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Now THIS is the way to go! Let's go Oakland, LETS GO!
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
This actually gives me hope.
You’re not projecting any significant breakouts (except for the bench, which seems kind of high) and instead, you’re regressing a lot of players from what they produced last year. It indicates to me that our true talent is actually closer than we think when compared to the Rangers.
But of course, the injury issues are indeed what tempers my hopes.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 19, 2011 12:52 PM PST up reply actions
The parallels between Oakland and Texas are actually many
Relying on breakout SP not to heavily regress: Cahill / Wilson
Relying on breakout SP to continue to be good: Gio / Lewis
Relying on oft-injured pieces to be healthy: Anderson-Crisp / Cruz-Kinsler
The A’s may have the edge in “depth when injuries hit” (e.g., Sweeney) but the Rangers have the edge in “talent before” (e.g Hamilton).
The way I see it, if the two teams come out dead even in these key areas, Texas will win more games than the A’s will. But if just these pieces favor the A’s, Oakland can in fact win more games.
It’s like flipping a coin 8 times and needing 5 heads to win. Sure, you’d prefer to be the one who wins if it comes out 4 and 4, but at the same time, you have every reason to think you might actually prevail, without some bizarre occurrence that no one should really expect to happen.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Quick question for all
If Brett Anderson starts 32 games and Josh Hamilton plays 50 games, what team will win more games this year?
Quick who is the pitcher most likely to not start 32 games?
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 3:13 PM PST up reply actions
thats just not accurate
its plenty likely Anderson blows out his arm in the first 10 games this year, which is why i didn’t support his extension.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 3:18 PM PST up reply actions
Hamilton's past life is huge
Why is he “sick” like, constantly? Oh yeah, his internal organs were massively damaged from recreational drug use.
Bottom line is: Hamilton is what turns Texas from an ok team to a contender, yet he’s always hurting and/or “sick”. BA just has an arm problem that I’m sure our new trainers and pitching coach can work with to help him achieve max potential without getting injured.
Anderson's past arm problem is huge
Why is he "hurt" like, constantly? Oh yeah, his ligaments were massively damaged from pitching use.
Bottom line is: Anderson is what turns Oakland from an bad team to a ok one, yet he’s always hurting and/or "sick". Hamilton just has an illness that I’m sure our their trainers and hitting coach can work with to help him achieve max potential without getting injured.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 3:28 PM PST up reply actions
Plus Hamilton will probably miss some time...
When he gets in trouble during spring training for doing a body shot out of my belly button.
Can't you wait till July for that?
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 3:56 PM PST up reply actions
Seriously?
He made 30 starts in ‘09 for 175 innings, ’08 was 105 innings in 20 games (minors) and ’07 he threw 120 in 23 games (minors). His arm seemed fine after June. Where’s your data coming from?
minor league injury reports
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 4:02 PM PST up reply actions
He missed time in 08 with a finger issue and a blister issue
in 07 he missed time with as the results of a car accident
Forearm strains are a type of forearm tear larger ones require tommy john ligament replacement surgery.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 4:25 PM PST up reply actions
So a blister and a car accident?
Not exactly chronic issues are they. As for the forearm “strain”, I think you need to do a little more research. Tendinitis (as I’ve heard Anderson’s issue deemed) is merely inflammation of the tendon. No tear is necessary or probable. In a worst case scenario the tendon is torn and requires surgery but this is far from definite.
From Slusser:
The contrast MRI showed no structural damage, no tears, just inflammation
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/athletics/detail?entry_id=65105#ixzz1BX5ixpWW
the finger issue wasn't just a blister it was a ligament problem
also that article is from the june not the july injury.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 5:06 PM PST up reply actions
Pretty sure it is "the July injury"
I think he went down in April/May the first time. Anyway, I’m not sure why I’m arguing- of all the pitchers not named Harden he seems to be the most fragile. He’s also young and got the best stuff on the staff so let’s hope he’s not Harden 2.0
Not to mention, blisters are very definitely chronic issues
Beckett has dealt with finger blisters for like three years straight now. He misses four or five starts a season now because they get so nasty he can’t pitch with them until they heal for a while.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Effects of a car accident can be chronic, too.
Just ask Duchscherer.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Ugh, really?
What an immature post to write. You are looking borderline delusional with this, especially if Anderson reels off 5 30+ start seasons.
Somebody said,
I will fall in line with anything that changes the vibe with what it is now, to something more positive.
Falling in line starts with you.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Borderline delusional?
You’d better check yourself real fast, buddy.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
How would predicting that someone with arm problems will get reinjured make me look delusional?
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 4:26 PM PST up reply actions
I think it's more that you assume everybody with an injury history is destined for immediate re-injury
Know one will argue that injuries happen and that an abnormal amount have happened under the A’s medical staff.
just people that are always hurt.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 5:06 PM PST up reply actions
The problem is that the Rangers players are better even with their injury risk.
Also they have the farm and the financial resources to go out and get a outstanding player at the deadline.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 3:17 PM PST up reply actions
It doesn't sound like there's all that much disagreement overall
on the outlook. Just a difference on how it should be spun….er communicated.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 4:00 PM PST up reply actions
exactly
My outlook is that with our attendenace, location, budget, TV ratings, radio reception, and competition we are lucky not to be the worst team in baseball.
To be expected to be over .500 and fighting for the playoffs is downright impressive. And the fact that we have management that has done well enough to make me expect that every year is amazing.
Do you seriously think Ryan Sweeney is better than David Murphy, or are you just forgetting about Murphy?
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Sweeney is capable of a 4 WAR season or so I have read
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 4:37 PM PST up reply actions
Murphy is healthy.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 4:47 PM PST up reply actions
But Sweeney has a cooler nickname. Swingles!!
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
which does not improve his ability to play baseball nor does this comment improve the discussion of fourth outfielders
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 4:55 PM PST up reply actions
NOW you're trying to get serious in this thread?
I thought the whole point of this thread was a joke on your part.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
no. my point was to immitate several posters that have gotten to zealous and show that they are wishcasting
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 5:07 PM PST up reply actions
So, you weren't poking fun at them?
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
never mind my head hurts from slaming it into this brick wall
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 5:12 PM PST up reply actions
Read your post opening statement:
“Some people around have recently taken one too many deep whiffs of ether or let their dentist leave the nitrous tap open just a weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee bit too long and insist on sunshine pumping their delirium on the rest of us who would prefer to have some semblance of discerning reality from the Santas riding ponies in our mind .”
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
My "Sweeney" remark was just to lighten things up a bit.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
just let things be dense.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 5:16 PM PST up reply actions
No problemo!
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
it was suppose to be a swipe and some posters and channeling hunter s thompson.
the first part clearly worked better than the second.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 5:16 PM PST up reply actions
I'm just wondering whether his evaluation is based on a head-to-head evaluation
or whether he’s forgotten about the details of the Rangers’ roster.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I can't decide what I think of Murphy,
but my point — which admittedly I didn’t really make the first time — is that the dropoff isn’t as big for the A’s as for Texas. Obviously, that’s not entirely a good thing because it means our best starting OFers aren’t as good to begin with.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Why isn't the drop off as big?
Murphy and Sweeney with Sweeney’s health is probably not in our favor
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 6:11 PM PST up reply actions
Because Hamilton is more betterer than Murphy
than (insert any A’s OFer here) is betterer than Sweeney.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
oooooh ok this make sense now
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 6:23 PM PST up reply actions
Ah, I see what you're getting at now
Okay, I can dig that.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
It's the great value of being mediocre to begin with!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
It actually was encouraging for me too. I didn't have to lie tooo much to get there.
I just think we are going to underperform that drastically
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 3:35 PM PST up reply actions
I think a 95-win season is more likely to involve a 6-7 win outburst from Gio or Anderson, personally
This one has pretty much everyone at half a win above projections, which is absurdly unlikely.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
yeah that is what i did but your option is probably more likely
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 4:48 PM PST up reply actions
Positives of the A's team
the are conveniently located and if you go in for season tickets with a coworker it really isn’t too big a hit on your wallet. Also their dollar dogs are so disgusting you have to eat like 5 of them because you can. They have great public transportation options.
Also Daric Barton.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 12:14 PM PST up reply actions
I dare PL to write about the negatives of this A's team.
Hey, I can do it too!
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Whats the point of that?
To add to the the massive amounts of negative posts we already have? Its getting old and I have every right to complain about it. Look, something is fishy here. I don’t think I’m breaking new ground in saying PT+dfa are not fans of this current roster or farm system, but guess what? I cant find anyone else who thinks that. There’s not a snowballs chance in hell I will believe two amateur message board analysts over the large majority of professional critics and scouts out there. My point is that literally no one else feels this way about the team, and why the hell do two posters opinions matter so much?
by PL78 on Jan 19, 2011 2:44 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
It's about objectivity. They are saying what they see.
There are a lot of people that agree with them. I’m hoping to be wrong, but I don’t think we’re a playoff team. If things go our way, ya it’s definitely possible, and I (and DFA, PT, and the others who aren’t so high on this team) would be stoked.
Look, I don’t come to this site for the rah rah A’s mentality. It’s a part of the site, and I respect that, but what I love about AN is the differing perspectives on baseball. Let people give their perspectives.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
You think they're the only two people who might have issues with the roster?
You think they’re the only two people who can see that there might be some holes others are overlooking, whether intentionally or not?
You have a massive bone to pick with them, it’s obvious. It’s because you can’t stomach their opinions.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I dare you to stop contributing to the toxicity people cite as one of the things they're getting tired of here
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I double dare him.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 19, 2011 3:06 PM PST up reply actions
haha
Yeah, its totally me that’s responsible. I’m a self-admitted idiot who loves the A’s and knows a few things about baseball. I’d be respected on almost every other team site except this one.
I’d love if AN shut down from Jan 1-first day of ST. People here are just arguing over the craziest shit right now. I’m not even involved in half of these train wreck posts that are running right now. PT & dfa go out of their way to argue with everyone, PT even admitted it. While its cool dfa replied to my challenge and posted the WAR totals that most (read: every) analyst is predicting, I dont see the point in half the things being written here right now. All I do know is that we all need it to be Feb 20 or so really badly.
please list one analyst in the sabermetric community that thinks the A's win 95 games.
Dan Szymborski the guy who created ZIPs
Without a big step forward by a few of the young hitters, I can’t see the A’s really doing all that much better than .500.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 3:22 PM PST up reply actions
Try linking someone with a more current projection.
This was written before any of the A’s offseason additions.
You mean DeJesus, Willingham, Balfour and Fuentes?
That does sound significant.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 3:58 PM PST up reply actions
Minus Cust and Blevins
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 4:03 PM PST up reply actions
and with a worse 5th starter
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 4:03 PM PST up reply actions
Matsui cancels out Cust. Blevins is still there.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 4:06 PM PST up reply actions
Blevins won't be in the pen
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 4:19 PM PST up reply actions
In that case no one will ever get hurt which is awesome!
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 4:22 PM PST up reply actions
Fuentes will be
And Blevins will be if your prediction of everybody falling out of bed hurt actually happens
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
I think the bullpen will be more healthy but I don't think they are going to have three lefties in the pen
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 5:08 PM PST up reply actions
But do you really think
That losing Blevins because you added Fuentes and Balfour is some sort of loss?
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
yes the marginal production of the replacement is much much lower
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 5:37 PM PST up reply actions
Harden and McCarthy project better than whoever they had then
Unless you mean Iwakuma
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 4:07 PM PST up reply actions
Worse fifth starter?
Mazzaro was 0.0 WAR last year according to fangraphs.
by Glorious Mundy on Jan 19, 2011 4:08 PM PST up reply actions
Like Daniel Simpson Day's GPA
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 4:11 PM PST up reply actions
Daniel Simpson Day had no grade point average. All courses imcomplete.
You’re thinking of Sen. Blutarsky.
"We've come a long way, and I'm not talking about Virginia Slims, either." - Art Howe
He's the flip-flopper from the purple state, right?
(pauses to fill mouth with mashed potatoes and shoot them out like popping a zit)
I think I voted for him once!
Bob Geren was born in a suburban apartment complex he built with his own two hands.
by QueenOfCansAndJars on Jan 20, 2011 9:30 AM PST up reply actions
Sorry Senator
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 20, 2011 10:34 AM PST up reply actions
Seriously?
Cust is now Matsui. Blevins is still Blevins unless is at AAA and someone better is replacing him.
And whether you mean replacing Sheets or Mazzaro, I don’t think we can do much worse with the options we have available.
I think Blevins is better than the righty that replaces him
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 4:19 PM PST up reply actions
Even with the same players it probably would have improved
just through regression
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 4:22 PM PST up reply actions
most of the same players are still around
We have more options now to prevent absolute scrubs pitching due to injury… that is worth a win or two I think.
Im not justifying that.
Im saying that the additions didn’t do much for us
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 4:27 PM PST up reply actions
not by much
If the spring performances are that different, then Blevins will make the team. And Blevins was 0 WAR last year so…
Would you rather I conclude 85.5 wins?
You don't get bonus points for hubris.
I’d be respected on almost every other team site except this one.
Yeah to my knowledge constant lying/misrepresentation of facts doesn't earn respect anywhere.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 3:29 PM PST up reply actions
I dont do any of those things though
But if you say its so and write it enough times, eventually it becomes true, right?
You absolutely have
But you don’t like it when people bring up old posts so I’m not going to go dig a bunch of stuff up for you.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Sometimes I just wish that we didn't have usernames.
If we had a system where we were all anonymous posters (but user bans were still possible) it would eliminate a lot of drama. Admittedly, it would result in people not getting credit for good stuff, but it would stop a lot of the bickering.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 19, 2011 5:04 PM PST up reply actions
I just wish you could block off reply to
I’m trying to figure out between Flashfire & dfa who is more hellish to try and have a convo with on here, neither of them ever take the high road and they both constantly have to have the almighty “last word”.
Considering that Flash and I don't get along very well on here
(we get a long fine in real life) doesn’t that say something about your particular brand of posting?
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 5:15 PM PST up reply actions
Speaking of real life
I wish my weekends weren’t always tied up with work. I’d love to get out to more AN Days or even the cookouts at Nico’s and do more food stuff.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
me too.
Im really looking forward to saturday, I hope you are coming.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 5:17 PM PST up reply actions
Something's going on on Saturday?
Unfortunately I work until about 6 or 7 on weekends, and I live adjacent to Sacramento now.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
yeah there is something at OPs house
you know its like a solar eclipse, those times when Nico and I get a long really well and enjoy talking about baseball with eachother :-P
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 5:21 PM PST up reply actions
i still have to decide what to cook!
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 5:34 PM PST up reply actions
we need apps right?
ive got a sweet potato bacon blue cheese thing if OP lets me use the oven
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 5:38 PM PST up reply actions
Now I'm hungry
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 5:56 PM PST up reply actions
take a look at
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 5:58 PM PST up reply actions
made them this weekend with the gf.
we ate them all immediately
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 6:05 PM PST up reply actions
They do look good
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 6:20 PM PST up reply actions
Ahhh
Yeah, it has to be offline! Maybe it’s just a different environment compared to words on screens.
But the working weekends thing really eliminates the ability to have a normal social life in certain ways. When I’m available it’s a work night for others or a day when most people are working as it is, stuff like that. Been this way for a few years now.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
"I'd love it if AN shut down from Jan 1-first day of ST."
This baffles me. If you really feel that way, why do you visit during that time frame?
"We've come a long way, and I'm not talking about Virginia Slims, either." - Art Howe
I did not know it was this bad during this time.
Its all arguing all the time and really boring. Cant wait for gameday threads to come back, those are my faves!
Seriously
Every one of us has the power to create a personal shut down of AN from Jan 1 to spring training. Just remove AN from your bookmark list and don’t come here. Then when spring training comes you can come back.
Some people do exactly that. If you don’t enjoy the offseason squabbling, you can be one of them.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I don't use bookmarks.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
You use deodorant though, right?
Bob Geren was born in a suburban apartment complex he built with his own two hands.
by QueenOfCansAndJars on Jan 20, 2011 5:31 PM PST up reply actions
I avoid it as much as I can.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I think you have some unrealistic thoughts about yourself and your importance to AN and the world in general
It seems you have a problem with them daring to say they aren’t sold on this roster being as good as others seem to think. At the very least, the injury concerns are as valid as it gets and the farm system still has problems.
Look, I’m a little tired of the back-and-forth that goes on so often too, but you’re as guilty of it as anyone. You’re completely baiting things over and over again here.
If you want to see the mood of the place change, look in the mirror and start with yourself. Stop demanding people respect you, too. You haven’t really done anything to warrant it.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
by Flashfire on Jan 19, 2011 3:50 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
No, you are totally wrong.
1. I don’t really care about what faceless posters Ive never met think of me.
2. I don’t demand respect. I don’t want it. It was brought up to me that dfa relentlessly calling me a liar has tinted other peoples views of my posts, which sucks, but what can you do? I have not ever lied about anything. I posted that we won the Iwakuma bid, which we did. People didnt like it and said it was tantamount to lying because it hadn’t happened yet, but it happened because I knew it would. Everyone acted like I made a serious post announcing that we had traded for Albert Pujols, which would indeed be a lie. Me as liar = AN overreacting to something that isnt important.
3. I do agree that this site needs to be cleaned up, but apparently I cannot even do that or else you will bring up posts from 2009 that say I like Raj Davis because he had a good year and how its “lies” or some such bullshit. After I get bored with this terrible thread (that should be deleted) I will try and not sink to certain levels other posted have dragged this site to. I really think swearing should be completely banned to the point where it wont let you post if you have one of the half dozen or so universally recognized “bad words”. I will try though, you have my word (which doesnt mean anything to you, but whatever I will anyway.
I'm pretty sure I'm not wrong, thanks
1. You say one thing but your act here proves differently each and every time. You absolutely show you care about it quite a bit.
2. You seem to have a big need for respect since you brought it up again here today, and you’ve complained about it before when you didn’t get posts of yours promoted to the front page, like it should have been a given. You’re greatly revising the whole Iwakuma thing, by the way, and I see no need to rehash it again.
3. I don’t really give a damn what you said about who you liked a couple years ago, for what it’s worth. But, here’s the part you need to understand: if you think it’s fine to just come around and call for threads or posts to be deleted and not have to deal with some of the backlash, or if you think you can just write off the opinions of PT and DFA as relentless negativity especially when they’ve explained why they’re down on the roster (and I trust they have), you’re sorely mistaken. As for your word, sorry. It really doesn’t mean anything to me at all. You’ve claimed you’d do better before and you haven’t changed a thing about how you carry yourself here. It’s always someone else’s fault, not yours. It’s always “after I get tired of this,” like you’re above everyone else. Yet you always end up instigating again.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
So why did you write this?
If you want to see the mood of the place change, look in the mirror and start with yourself.
If you yourself cannot believe it to be true?
Probably because you've proven up to this point that you don't think you're the one with the problem
You are not a victim here, so stop acting like one.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Oh, but I clearly am.
Ive been called all sorts of insults on here. 100% of them were fallacies and completely low-rent out of line comments made by losers of arguments. I know how it works. I still have no idea why you keep replying, I’m done with talking to you. You tell me to shape up and then when I agree to you tell me I cant and you wont ever respect me. That is completely pathetic, over-the-top and unnecessary.
Sadder than you constantly singling me out because you don't like my responses to dfa?
You are sad with a capital S.
For someone so fixed on others needing the last word, you sure talk about it a lot
Seems that’s more a concern of yours than mine or DFA’s.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
do you find it ironic that you inist on complaining that someone else needs to have the last word after posting snide replies to get exactely that?
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 5:14 PM PST up reply actions
Don't worry
When he finally gets tired of participating in the worst thread in the history of AN, we’ll never see him stoop to our level again.
Or something.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Im not even referring to the lie that you told with regard to Iwakuma.
Im more referring to the Rasmus lie, but hey there are so many to choose from.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 4:51 PM PST up reply actions
You said he was benched because he asked to get traded.
That wasn’t true. He was benched because he was late.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 4:56 PM PST up reply actions
That is absolutely nothing to decimate a posters respectabilty over.
Its not a lie, it was a guess that was wrong. I’m not a professional reporter here and It doesn’t really matter at all in the grand scheme of things.
You are constantly out of line with posts like that. Do you always have to have the last word too? Buy some class man, act like you’ve been there before.
You repeatedly lie and thats somehow my fault? Or you could just stop.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 5:09 PM PST up reply actions
No, I dont lie ever.
You repeatedly are a dick to the large majority of posters. You could stop that and everything would be a lot better around here.
Then why does everyone say you do?
Also I think you confuse a small handful and large majority.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 5:18 PM PST up reply actions
i can think of a bunch of well respected posters who share that belief
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 5:22 PM PST up reply actions
No, I'm not doing this.
I am categorically not a fucking liar and I refuse to participate in my own witch hunt. Plus, you lie as much as I do: Josh Donaldson is much WORSE than I think!
I never lie.
I might be wrong but I don’t lie on here.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 5:35 PM PST up reply actions
You are totally AD
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
I think you and I are the only 2 people who know what that means.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
I just assumed he meant to type ADD
but got distracted before he could finish typing.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Haha yes
Am I wrong?
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
No, I called him out on it before too. He pretended not to know what I meant.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Normally it means "the year of our Lord," but somehow I get the sense that that's not what's being referenced here...
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
AD was a poster on another A's site who had basically the exact same mannerisms
posting style, etc.
Like, literally identical.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Yes
There is absolutely zero chance it isn’t him.
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
That whole
“I wish we could ban people for bringing up old posts” thing sealed it.
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
Baseball moves too fast to get caught up is positions taken over certain things.
Literally every poster ever has been wrong in their views at some point. I’m no different. Anyone who posts “Yeah but in 2009 you said this” isnt helping move the threads in the right direction.
Buy some class, act like you've been there before.
Even the bit about being an actor!
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Flagged.
You can’t call people “dumbass.” (“Cupholder,” on the other hand, is completely appropriate.)
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
argh
I get it, but I dont like my profession being called “a bit”.
I still do not understand whats going on here, guess AN is strictly a “meta baseball” site now?
Buy some class, act like you've been there before.
You may have misunderstood the use of "bit" there, actually
I read it to mean “part,” as in “I missed that bit of the conversation.”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
That's how I read it.
I didn’t see anything offensive about “bit” at all, and I was surprised that PL reacted to it that way.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Maybe he assumed it meant a "bit part"
Still no reason for the reaction being what it was.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
So, PL78:AD::windyfelix:oaktoon ?
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
huh.
Waffle House is good for two things: 1 – coffee; 2 – finding cheap whores -- Jennifer
by Leopold Bloom on Jan 20, 2011 4:31 PM PST up reply actions
Wo, wait a second, the A's have injury risks?
No shit. I guess what I see are the measures taken to add depth. Let’s take a look:
1B- Same risk as last year (backup is Carter)
2B- Same risk as last year (since the lost 2004 season he’s had no less than 410 PAs)
SS- Same risk as last year (but probably needs more days off early on due to the shoulder thing. Expect a full recovery after slow start)
3B- Same risk as last year (never had less than 534 AB’s in a season)
C- Same risk as last year (hopefully Zukes gets a few more days off)
OF- Sweeney moves from starter to 4th OF, Jackson to 5th. They both move up when Coco goes down- come on, I’m not that unrealistic.
DH- Matsui is much higher injury risk than Cust ever was. Luckily he shouldn’t spend any time in the field and Carter is a capable replacement if he goes down
I expect a move soon in response to Rosales’s slow progress. A capable left side of the infield replacement should be tops on the priority list.
SP- Same risk as last year but I like Billy’s approach to the 5th starter role. Counting on any one of those guys would be foolish but as a group they seem to offer some security. Having Outman and Ross in addition to the new acquisitions is a plus and removing Sheets and his 10M allows for more flexibility.
This isn't accuratre
2b is worse because of age (one year older) and more injuries las year
SS is worse because cliff is already missing a part of the season
3b is worse because of injuries last year and a year older
C Zukes got hurt last year increasing future risk.
OF We imported two injury prone OFers to go with our hella injury prone OFers and have more hurt back ups than last year.
DH Carter is a bad DH right now
SP Anderson is more hurt than last year as is Braden. Anderson looks like he will need tjs.
its much worse than last year.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 12:21 PM PST up reply actions
You're wrong
I just kinda wanted to get that out of the way…
2b- the age is a valid concern as is his injury history. But it was last year too, and 34 isn’t exactly over the hill. What’s the expected drop-off from age 33 to 34? (I’m genuinely curious)
SS- Cliff may miss a few games due to the shoulder but this is known going into the season. As I mentioned, a backup to SS/2B/3B would be on the top of my to-do list. That being said, I’d be willing to bet that you didn’t have him penciled in for 156 games and a 3.7 WAR last year. And to provide statistical credibility to my optimism, Bill James has him projected for a very similar year including 150 games.
C- Dude’s overused, plain and simple. But come on, he’s had one small DL stint in three years of being abused and it’s not like it’s his knees or arm. Shits bound to happen to a catcher and frankly I’m amazed at his durability. Hopefully he gets adequate rest this year but regardless his injury should be a non-factor.
OF- Yeah, you’re not a pessimist, my bad.
DH- This is Carter’s natural “position.” He can’t field but man can he hit. Some seasoning will do him good and I hope he’s able to continue the OF project in Sac. but there are worse back up DH options out there. At any rate it’s not a huge drop-off and I expect him to man the position by 2012.
SP- I just disagree. Anderson’s elbow may be an issue but unless I missed something the whole TJS thing is conjecture at best. Please include your sources. The mere fact the Sheets is gone should be an upgrade and there’s undeniable depth going into ST that was nonexistent last year.
RP- I failed to include the pen initially because it’s obviously much deeper than it’s been in resent memory, but maybe I should have
"Cliff may miss a few games"
I’m sorry, have you WATCHED this team in the past five seasons? Any time they make an estimate of a player’s recovery time, it’s safe to multiply it 2-5 times to represent reality.
Also, Bill James (more accurately, the computer with the Bill James license) doesn’t know doodly squat about a player having offseason shoulder surgery.
Re: Anderson, a five-second google search of “forearm strain tommy john surgery” will instantly make obvious the close connection between those two events.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Of course they are connected
But the real question is if the tendon issue is isolated or if there’s more structural damage which could implicate the ulnar collateral ligament. It’s hard to diagnose and I’m fully aware of the A’s lack of diagnostic tools, but if he got some outside help over the off season he should be on a program. I’m worried, but I’m not writing him off.
I'm not writing him off either, but I'm sure as hell discounting what I expect to get from him to account for the injury threat
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
It logically cannot be worse
because 50 games of Josh Willingham will be better than 50 games of Matt Watson.
You realize that im talking about injury right?
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 3:23 PM PST up reply actions
Josh WIllingham will not play fifty games, though
Duh
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
I think Willingham will probably play 125 games
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 5:10 PM PST up reply actions
125 games of Willingham
Is an unbelievably incredible upgrade over 125 games of Gross, Carson, Watson, etc
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
I think hes a 1 Win upgrade over sweeney
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 5:41 PM PST up reply actions
I do not
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
You mean more than 1 or less than 1
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 5:57 PM PST up reply actions
More
Easily more. Mostly because I don’t put nearly as much stock into UZR as people apparently do here.
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
So you think Willingham is more than a 2.5 WAR player or that
Sweeney is worse than 1.5?
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 5:59 PM PST up reply actions
What I think is that
Willingham is a very very good hitter and is an adequate defender.
Sweeney is an ok hitter at best and a good defender if his knees hold up.
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
I think Willingham is a very very good hitter and a bad defender if his knees hold up
and Sweeney is a slightly better than average hitter that is a very good defender if his knees old up.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 6:05 PM PST up reply actions
I'm translating this as:
hero66:
Sweeney: Offense 0 BRAA + Defense 5 FRAA = 2.5 WAR
Willingham: 15 BRAA + 0 FRAA = 3.5 WAR
dfa:
Sweeney: 5 BRAA + 10 FRAA = 3.5 WAR
Willingham: 15 BRAA – 5 FRAA = 3.0 WAR
But having both is better than playing a Matt or Gabe
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 6:11 PM PST up reply actions
Sort of
Sweeney 2.5 BRAA 5 FRAA -7.5 positional + replacement = 2 WAR
Willingham 20 BRAA – 5 FRAA – 7.5 positional replacement = 2.75 WAR
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 6:22 PM PST up reply actions
Oops I forgot positional adjustment
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 6:29 PM PST up reply actions
So...
First, thanks DFA for all of the work you do. A lot of it is over my head, but I do appreciate the work that you and other more stat-oriented people put in.
I hope this post doesn’t come across the wrong way, but I’m curious… is anyone, for any team, good (and not too expensive or too injury prone)? I almost feel like any player ever discussed here is too old, too injury prone, too expensive, too young/unproven or just not good enough.
If all MLB players were in a pool, with their current health and contract status intact, who would you take first? Pujols would surely be gone after this year. Halladay is most likely too old, to expensive. Hamilton has a massive injury risk.
"Ain't no man can avoid being born average, but there ain't no man got to be common." - Satchel Paige
With the current contract you'd have to take Longoria
If you ignore contract status there’s an argument for Pujols, Hanley or Mauer
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 11:52 AM PST up reply actions
Longoria hands down.
Failcour is going to make more money than he will next year. Its astonishing.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 12:17 PM PST up reply actions
I did not know that.
Jeez.
"Ain't no man can avoid being born average, but there ain't no man got to be common." - Satchel Paige
It's Longoria, and it's not even close.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
As mentioned in earlier threads
Longoria’s skillset and contract are so good for a team that I’d trade our entire farm system for him.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 19, 2011 12:50 PM PST up reply actions
Wouldn't be enough.
I’d trade our entire farm system for him.
There have been a few pieces about it. Longoria is giving Tampa something stupid like $160M in surplus value, depending on what you want to assume his WAR each year will be for the rest of his contract.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Am I getting the point of this thread?
Things I have learned here:
1. The older players will regress.
2. The younger players will regress.
3. All players will miss at least as much time to injury as they did last year.
4. My time would have been better spent over at the Angel’s forums.
by chrisatsac on Jan 19, 2011 1:17 PM PST reply actions 3 recs
Can't we all just... get along?
Seriously though, I realize that injuries, the stadium situation, and having a depleted farm system are all conspiring to make it difficult for the A’s to be a successful team in the near future. I know this, and I imagine most of the community knows this, too.
But, I don’t want to be f*****g reminded of it all the time. You wouldn’t walk up to an MS patient and hand them a brochure about cemetery plots, right? So, why would you do the baseball-fan equivalent of it? The A’s and any time I spend doing A’s-related stuff is supposed to be a nice diversion, not a reminder of my team’s bleak outlook.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
You're right
We should all post our reasons the A’s will win 110 games.
I’ll start:
and I’m done.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I never said I'm living in nitrous-town
I just don’t get the dour nature of conversation recently.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 19, 2011 2:34 PM PST up reply actions
It's kind of bizarre, isn't it?
Upgrade in LF, upgrade in RF, improved bullpen, and even upgrade at DH (thanks to the aggregate numbers Chavy helped to produce), with no significant losses.
I mean it’s fine to think the team projects to win low 80s instead of high 80s, or whatever, but this level of despair for the team’s prospects now and later, when many respected analysts (like me, for example!) are bullish on the A’s chances to compete this year? Seems extreme.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
The way I look at it...
We are not worse off in any one position than we were last year. OF, DH, and bullpen is upgraded. Bench depth is slightly upgraded. Ben Sheets and his batting practice curveball are not dragging us down. Sure, several of the players were injured last year, but we still were .500 even with the injuries. We are no more likely to have worse luck with injuries this year, than we are to have much better luck with injuries this year.
Facts.
You could even add in the impact 15 starts from BA vs 32 starts from BA makes.
But apparently he is only going to start 5 games this year, bummer.
No respected analyst is bullish on the A's
please show me one that is that has any idea what a projection system is.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 3:24 PM PST up reply actions
You are. You think they can win 84 games.
95 even.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 3:31 PM PST up reply actions
84 wins is not contending
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 3:33 PM PST up reply actions
Unless you win your first 84 games of course.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 3:37 PM PST up reply actions
ehh when you lose the next 78 that has to really suck
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 3:39 PM PST up reply actions
Yes and the Mets lost a World Series with fewer as well.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 4:05 PM PST up reply actions
it was 83
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 4:06 PM PST up reply actions
See, I think 84 wins IS contending
84 total wins won’t get you into the playoffs, but if you start with an “84-win team on paper,” you’re well within the range, and have the talent, to contend.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
thats too tautological for my tastes
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 6:11 PM PST up reply actions
If 84 wins doesn't get you into the playoffs, how does having an 84 win
team on paper mean you have the talent to make the playoffs? You mean if you get career years from everyone or something?
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 6:14 PM PST up reply actions
No, because the difference between 84 wins and 90 wins
is actually not that great. Having an 84 win team on paper is like having a team in the “76-92” range.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
OK but to win 92 you need everyone to perform to the top of their
capability — ie. have career years
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 6:19 PM PST up reply actions
Sure, but who says that you need 92 wins?
Texas had 90 wins last year and a couple things falling their way. The discussion about their team now seems to be if they stayed at 90 or are more like a 88-86 win team.
You're right that if the Rangers are really an 87 Win team
then 84 is within the 3 game error bar and both teams are contenders. I personally doubt that 88 Wins gives you the division title, but that’s partly because it rarely does and partly because I think the Rangers are better than that.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 20, 2011 5:01 AM PST up reply actions
And within that 76-92 range
If you are trending towards the upper half, you can make a trade to get better which Beane has always been willing to do. So I would say we have a 50% chance of being 84 wins or better and if that is the case, I think there is a good chance we do something to add a win or two down the stretch.
I actually think we are an 87 win team, so applying the same logic, we are pretty darn competitive in my mind.
No you cant considering our farm is bottom 10 in baseball
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 10:23 AM PST up reply actions
So? You can still trade Green, Carter, Choice, Cabrera
and Krol to get something.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 20, 2011 10:36 AM PST up reply actions
I think Green Carter and Choice take a huge hit next year
and Cabrera and Krol arent headliners
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 10:45 AM PST up reply actions
Still have plenty enough to make a trade
It really looks like you are being provocatively pessimistic just for the heck of it. I understand a lot of it but presuming an inability to make trades or excessive sorrow over the loss of Corey Brown seems a bit melodramatic. You have a reasonable argument but you are drifting into sensationalism now and its weakening your point.
No im on record of disliking Green from the time he was picked on
and I am not the only one with questions about the glove
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 11:43 AM PST up reply actions
So what if he ends up at 2nd or 3rd?
Is that such a bad thing?
I don't think he can play 3b
but yes it takes him down a .5 Win a year.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 11:51 AM PST up reply actions
What does that have to do with anything?
We can make trades. Corey Brown is meh. I didn’t mention Green (who has trade value regardless of what you say… but we don’t even have to trade him).
Ask the 2010 Gnats
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 20, 2011 9:04 AM PST up reply actions
respected is debatable
But the talking heads on ESPN, and the MLB network have been positive on the moves. I know that means little around here though.
I actually wonder who would be considered respectable by everyone here. Personally I am looking forward to some updated projection models.
Though really the problem isn’t the projections (everyone is between 84 and 87 so far), it is the reaction to those mid-80s projections… some people are satisfied and others want more. I am both, but question our ability to have gotten all that much more.
Ya, 84 to 87 seems to be on the fringe of contention. It probably won't win
anything but it also means somewhat meaningful games at least in August.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 4:10 PM PST up reply actions
Are you insinuating
That we can only project the team to be good if a projection system agrees?
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
you can do whatever you want, that doesn't mean you are a respected analyst though.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 5:11 PM PST up reply actions
I don't think you answered my question
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
maybe i missunderstood the question
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 5:36 PM PST up reply actions
I'm simply asking
If we can only predict the A’s to be good if CHONE and ZiPS and other systems do the same.
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
unless you have a good reason why those are wrong... yes
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 5:41 PM PST up reply actions
See, that seems like insanity to me
But to each their own and thanks for answering
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
why do you think you should be able to just throw them away?
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 5:50 PM PST up reply actions
I didn't say that
But I absolutely don’t think they are the be all end all either
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
nor did i
but i said unless you can find something specifically wrong with them then you should look at them
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 5:54 PM PST up reply actions
I do look at them
You keep assuming that I completely disregard projections. They are useful, I will concede that.
What I won’t concede is that we aren’t allowed to disagree with them.
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
Why would you disagree with them without a
good reason?
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 5:58 PM PST up reply actions
I might have missed something...
but can someone actually present any evidence that a projection system says the A’s won’t be good?
ZIPs hates our rotation. Chone wasn't high on us before it went down.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 6:01 PM PST up reply actions
I only looked real quick, but coul not find the projections...
However, any projections system that has the A’s rotation—a rotation that was best in the AL last year, has it’s top 4 starters returning, and they are all young—projected anything less than very good, is a projections system that should be disregarded based solely on that regard.
Projections are one thing.
Palpable results are another entirely.
So if a projection system disagrees
with your pre-existing notions it should be disregarded based solely on that regard?
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 6:19 PM PST up reply actions
Actual results are hardly pre-existing notions.
There is no logical reason to expect a team who is the best in the league at a given aspect of the game to somehow regress to become bad at said aspect, while that group has stayed intact, is young, and is currently healthy. I’m not saying they will be the best again, but they will not regress to below average.
they weren't though
they were best in the league in defense.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 6:27 PM PST up reply actions
They were greatly helped by defense.
However, A’s starters led the league in fewest runs given up. That is a solid fact. Projections are theoretical. Projections might say their peripheral stats should have had them getting worse results than they did. But despite the peripherals, they were the best. You can’t say they weren’t that good because they shouldn’t have been that good.
They were that good.
no run provention was THAT GOOD
our starters were meh
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 6:42 PM PST up reply actions
The same defense that we have now.
And Zips projects ERA+ not FIP+, so defense is taken into it. Still he thinks with our defense that the rotation is below average.
Projection systems are well aware of
actual results. Where I try to find flaws in them is:
1) Durability/existing injuries
2) Tools
3) Where they wildly disagree with each other
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 6:32 PM PST up reply actions
this this this
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 6:41 PM PST up reply actions
the A's rotation was averagish last year
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 6:23 PM PST up reply actions
Sigh-- guess it's time to beat the dead horse for the 45000th time
The A’s did not have the best rotation in the AL last year. Not even close. More like 6th best. The best rotation in the league was probably Minnesota, though it’s hard to tell with precision because their new park seems to be very suppressive of home runs.
The A’s rotation had a very low ERA because they play in a moderate-to-extreme pitcher’s park and had the best defense in the league behind them.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Doesn't this show the excellent ability of BB to build a team that projects to succeed in a given stadium?
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
The team didn't succeed in the stadium... they went 81-81
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I thought they were 47-34. Looks like success to me.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
you are allowed to disagree with anything
but don’t expect me to respect you if the reason is
I cant hear you!!!!!!!!!!!!
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 6:01 PM PST up reply actions
I'm sorta forgetting where I said that is my reason
But assumptions seem to be your thing so whatever.
My reason is fairly simple, I think they players are better than they project. I don’t think Cahill will generate average results. His stuff is good and getting better and the defense behind him is still good.
I think Gio Gonzalez is very good. He got a lot better last year, and believe he can continue to get the walks down. His fastball-curveball combo is excellent.
We both agree BA is a good pitcher when healthy. You like to think he’ll be headed for TJS. I like to think that his making 13 starts to close out the season without issue is a good sign and that’ll he’ll be fine.
Same thing with Braden. He was able to pitch through the issues last year, and while it’s definitely possible they could get worse, I think the fact that he was able to string several successful starts together to close out the year was a positive sign.
I think we can both agree our bullpen will be pretty good.
I also think we can agree our offense was awful last year aside from Barto nand Cust. Barton was already great last year and is still young. Matsui/Cust is a wash. But WIllingham and DeJesus are lightyears better than the garbage we rolled out in the outfield last season, and I don’t know that WAR adequately shows that.
We lost 36 games by two runs of fewer last year. We scored two runs or fewer in 44. I think the offensive upgrades in the outfield, as well as some improvement from Kouz and Suzuki will give us a much better chance to win games, especially those where our pitchers struggle. I also expect fewer losses against shitty pitchers because we’re not trotting out a lineup if shitty hitters minus Barton and Cust.
Obviously health is the key to all of this. You prefer to predict catastrophe in that department, and I don’t think that’s the case. I already addressed Braden and Anderson, but Dejesus missed tons of time last year because he ran into a wall, and Crisp did because he slid into a base. Willingham has consistent injury problems, but I think 120-130 games out of him will be a significant enough upgrade.
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
I buy this
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 6:32 PM PST up reply actions
I never said thats what your reason was. I said if it was that I would treat your thoughts in a certain way.
Ive said previously that I think you can squint your way to 95 Wins if everyone is healthy and improves.
I think Kouz will be a full win lower next year not better.
I think Pennington will be two wins lower next year
I think Crisp will be hurt and not play as well by a half to 3/4 a win
I think Barton is 4 WAR rather than 5
I think Willingham is hurt a lot and while better with the bat will field poorly making him a small upgrade.
I think DDJ is a 3 WAR player
I think the 5th spot won’t produce any positive WAR and the fill in for whoever goes down in the rotation will produce negative WAR
I expect Matsui to be worse than Cust
I expect Rosales to drop .5 WAR
I buy Gio Breaking out to 4 WAR
I buy that the Bullpen will be better to the tune of 4 WAR
I just don’t see a huge improvement. I see a lot worse health and some serious regression.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 6:40 PM PST up reply actions
Even if you're predicting 84 or so wins
it’s an improvement and a pretty good year for a team with pretty meager resources and no big stars.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 6:43 PM PST up reply actions
not really. I think it was an abysmal offseaon
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 6:45 PM PST up reply actions
Yes, and you thought it was even before they lost out on Beltre
Why, exactly?
I think your expectations must have been unrealistically high.
We could have landed an offensive star? It seems, in light of Boras’ comments that it really is true that top-tier free agents don’t really want to come here, and massively overpaying for top-tier talent just isn’t a typical Billy Beane move, and when it was done, once, it was incredibly bad business, as PT has pointed out many times.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 20, 2011 9:28 AM PST up reply actions
Don't believe everything you read
Boras would like the A’s to offer bigger salaries, so he says they have to.
BFD.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
abysmal relative to what?
For the Red Sox it would be abysmal. For the A’s it isn’t bad. We didn’t have a realistic opportunity to do much better. Beltre would have been great. Who else would have been a huge upgrade? Who else was gettable in a trade?
Or did you want them to go back into full rebuild mode?
The overton window has closed for this team because of the offseason
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 10:24 AM PST up reply actions
details?
You can’t just say abysmal and leave it at that
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 20, 2011 10:27 AM PST up reply actions
im writing it in a post
do you know what an overton window is?
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 10:30 AM PST up reply actions
In politics, I do. Baseball, no
You appear to be using it to describe the A’s window of contention, and saying it has closed because of this offseason, but you haven’t given the details of exactly how it has closed. What needs weren’t addressed? Or were addressed too inadequately to do any good? I know you were in favor recently (December?) of just blowing the team up.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 20, 2011 10:57 AM PST up reply actions
It has closed because the A's got too many rentals
and didn’t sign anyone so there isn’t enough talent to contend before this core gets too expensive
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 11:01 AM PST up reply actions
As far as I know the only thing they lost for those renatls was a 2nd round pick
Now the Holliday thing, that was bad.
They also lost Henry Rodriguez, Corey
Brown, Vince Mazzaro, and Justin Marks
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 20, 2011 11:09 AM PST up reply actions
True
But none of those guys would have any bearing on the future of the organization. Seriously, can you imaging DFA or PT defending holding on to any one of these guys?
Id prefer holding on to Brown and Marks
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 11:18 AM PST up reply actions
Tolleson and Mortenson too
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 11:17 AM PST up reply actions
Tolleson and Mortensen? Really?
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 20, 2011 11:19 AM PST up reply actions
yes
The losses of Mortenson, Tolleson, and Marks cripple the future of A’s baseball.
Hee
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 20, 2011 11:22 AM PST up reply actions
will you be saying that when Sogard is the starting SS?
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 11:22 AM PST up reply actions
Green is the starting SS...at least until
people come around to your point of view that he can’t actually play there
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 20, 2011 11:25 AM PST up reply actions
its baseball america's view
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 11:28 AM PST up reply actions
Yes their sources seem to have raised
a bunch of questions. There’s still Pennington of course
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 20, 2011 11:31 AM PST up reply actions
who i expect to miss much of the season
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 11:33 AM PST up reply actions
Whoa. In that case they we're doomed.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 20, 2011 11:35 AM PST up reply actions
First off, Tolleson might very well end up back in green and gold
But assuming he follows the lucrative contract that Boston or NY will surely offer, the drop from him to Sogard for the few games that Penny misses will not break the season. And this is assuming that there isn’t some sort of move to address the SS/3B issue, and that Rosales and Penny miss significant time.
I doubt Sogard will be the opening day
SS. They’ll pick up some adequate defender off the scrap heap in ST
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 20, 2011 11:33 AM PST up reply actions
which requires someone going on the 60 Day DL YAY
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 11:44 AM PST up reply actions
So you do or you don't think there's going to be massive injuries?
Your argument is getting more and more convoluted. I don’t get it.
I do.
but if we are going to be contenders we better not.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 11:51 AM PST up reply actions
I do.
but if we are going to be contenders we better not.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 11:51 AM PST up reply actions
To be fair, there are multiple players that we know for a fact can be put on the 60-day DL if needed
Outman, Figueroa, etc.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I wouldn't take anyone seriously unless they had a good reason to think whatever
it was they thought and were able to clearly articulate it. A projection system is one unbiased source with a verifiable track record. It’s obviously got flaws — e.g. it doesn’t project playing time — but those can be dealt with separately. If you’re going to ignore the projection systems you need something equally valid to bank upon if you want to be taken seriously.
You need to show the qualifications, process, criteria and track record of your source if that source isn’t already accepted.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 5:21 PM PST up reply actions
My question really didn't pertain to the
respected analyst discussion. I’m not arguing that analysts > projection systems.
I’m wondering what makes projection systems so great and why we can’t accurately project the team to do well if a projection system disagrees.
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
You can, you just need a good reason if you want to be taken seriously
The projection systems have a track record of some success so it’s hard to just ignore them completely.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 5:55 PM PST up reply actions
The "upgrades" are inadequate, arguably overpriced short-term rentals
By this logic it would be impossible to ever be unhappy with a rental.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I am a fan of short term rentals
Especially if they are likely to be type A free agents and only cost $6M for 2-3 WAR.
The A’s get by on cost-controlled youngsters and short term rentals… it’s what we do so we should all get used to it.
Short term FAs are fine
Trading cost-controlled youngsters for short term rentals, though, is a different issue.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I really think we are overvaluing the guys we gave up
Except for Mazzaro, none would even sniff our top 10 prospects (if they all qualified) and our system is generally regarded is weak.
I did kind of think Mazzaro was a lot to give up for a 1 year rental. But I think DDJ is going to be a type A so I understand it.
I like the DDJ deal
I don’t hate the Willingham deal, but it certainly wasn’t great
Structurally, though, a team that relies on hitting with young prospects needs to hold onto as many as they can if they want to stay successful.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
none of the A's short term rentals are likely to be type A'
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 10:24 AM PST up reply actions
So they might not net picks
But I don’t see how they negatively impact the future.
Can you explain this for me?
I am serious… I’ve been assuming Willingham and DDJ have at least 50/50 chances at being type A free agents. If they have no chance, it would adversely affect my opinion of the deals.
I also think Crisp has a good chance. Anyone else look at the 2012 Free Agent CF crop? Crisp and DDJ may be the best two if Sizemore isn’t healthy. I absolutely think we will retain 1 or both of them and their being type A will make this easier since they aren’t so good that teams will scramble to give up a pick to get them.
I hardly think it matters. The A's need to resign one, probably both, anyways.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 20, 2011 11:31 AM PST up reply actions
Not Willingham I hope.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 20, 2011 11:33 AM PST up reply actions
I haven't watched a lot of him in the outfield
How bad do you think he’ll be out there?
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 20, 2011 11:36 AM PST up reply actions
Below average but not Custian. The more worrying thing
is that he has health issues and is getting up there in years.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 20, 2011 11:38 AM PST up reply actions
if he's decent offensively and non-horrible defensively
3 years would be okay.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 20, 2011 11:42 AM PST up reply actions
with his injury history?
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 11:44 AM PST up reply actions
if he plays 140+ games then try and sign him
If he’s another Coco, then fuck it.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 20, 2011 11:54 AM PST up reply actions
if im going to sign someone with a rediculous injury history itll be Seizmore
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 11:55 AM PST up reply actions
Seems like his injuries have been more serious than Willingham's
But yeah, huge upside if he’s in one piece.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 20, 2011 12:15 PM PST up reply actions
bad knees and backs? both seem to have it
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 1:27 PM PST up reply actions
Its not based on the FA class
it is based on the total population of OFers
DDJ and Willingham were hurt last year, which negatively impacts their counting stats. Furthermore, at least from my understanding they aren’t park adjusted so both players will suffer.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 11:42 AM PST up reply actions
There's a good chance that this Type A stuff
won’t even matter. The current CBA expires after the 2011 season. The draft-picks-when-you-lose-a-Type-A-free-agent scheme hasn’t worked very well. It’s entirely possible it will not be in place for 2012 under the new CBA.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Wouldn't it make sense to phase that in later?
A few people would be upset to have the rug pulled out after this season. I think they will chance it but have it come into effect a year or two later.
How is it pulling the rug out?
The CBA expires after 2011. Everyone knows that. They should plan accordingly.
(That said, I honestly don’t know how much, if any, of the rule is grandfathered in for the following years. If someone wants to read the CBA and report back, I’d be interested. I’ve been meaning to, but it’s low on my priority list.)
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
You don't understand
People are being optimistic, and we just can’t allow that nonsense to continue here.
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
You're right
We must suppress all negative speech to indulge your preferences not to be mugged by reality. Eliminate all ungood thinking immediately!
No, thanks. If someone posts an analysis which I believe to be flawed in certain fundamental respects, and I’ve got the time (and don’t think it’s too poorly thought out or rant-y to bother with— a category which, sorry DFA, includes the OP here), I’m going to critique it. If that critique happens to remind you that the A’s aren’t in great shape, tough. You’re free to stick to DLDs, gamethreads, and CT threads if you choose to. If you decide to enter into serious discussion threads, then don’t be surprised when the discussion is serious and not sugarcoated.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Serious discussion =/= doom and gloom
I agree: this discussion is not really thought out anyway (although DFA cops to it being tongue-in-creek). That said, reality does not have to mug me for me to know that it indeed exists. I’m not exactly one to be lilting in talking about the A’s to begin with.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 20, 2011 12:18 AM PST up reply actions
Serious discussion does equal doom and gloom with this team
thats why all the fp articles about how great the offseason was are so silly
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 10:30 AM PST up reply actions
It's not a serious discussion when the only "real" solution is to be the Rays West
by punting several seasons in a row, amassing several high first-round picks, and then hope the team is good in 5-6 years.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 20, 2011 10:44 AM PST up reply actions
that wasn't the only solution. they could have gone big this offseason, but they didn't
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 10:46 AM PST up reply actions
water under the bridge now
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 20, 2011 10:49 AM PST up reply actions
well the failure to sieze this offseason the collapse of the farm and the holliday trade ruined this overton window.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 10:50 AM PST up reply actions
I'm pretty sure you're misusing the term "overton window"
Although I’d love to hear how you connect a political theory that relates to the way the range of acceptable policy positions can be changed by purposefully advocating extreme positions relates to the temporal window in which an MLB franchise on a small budget can reasonably hope to compete for a title.
Presumably there’s a metaphor in there, but I’m not seeing it.
by Glorious Mundy on Jan 20, 2011 10:54 AM PST up reply actions
I know what an overton window is.
There is a time and place where you have a core that needs a big expensive free agent acquisition to make the team a contender, when at other times you shouldn’t consider an expensive free agent. There is a time when you should pillage your farm, because you window of contention is open.
The metaphor is that there are options when building a team that should not be considered most of the time that were acceptable and advisable right now because this team is going to get expensive real fast.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 10:58 AM PST up reply actions
blowing up the team is currently outside of the Overton Window
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 20, 2011 11:01 AM PST up reply actions
yes it is.
we really cant blow up the team now anyway, too many people that would bid on our parts have made other plans this offseason.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 11:04 AM PST up reply actions
well, obviously not now
But what do we do if we’re, say, 86-76 (second place, ostensibly) at the conclusion of the season? Still blow up?
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 20, 2011 11:16 AM PST up reply actions
You've also lost your whole starting OF at that point
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 20, 2011 11:18 AM PST up reply actions
yup
and your 2nd and 3rd basement DH and 5th starter.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 11:19 AM PST up reply actions
Where's Kouzmanoff going after 2011?
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 20, 2011 11:20 AM PST up reply actions
isn't this his last arby year?
either way i expect him to be bad enough that we won’t want to tender him
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 11:23 AM PST up reply actions
How can he be worse than Conor Jackson?
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 20, 2011 11:24 AM PST up reply actions
fair enough.
so just add a black hole at 3b
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 11:29 AM PST up reply actions
yup
and your 2nd and 3rd basement DH and 5th starter.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 11:19 AM PST up reply actions
Those that remain healthy this year (I know, I know)
I assume will be re-signed, considering the crappy FA options available in 2012. If I had make an order of who I think will re-sign (assuming the above):
DeJesus > Willingham > Crisp
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 20, 2011 11:34 AM PST up reply actions
Crisp could come back on a one year deal
They certainly don’t have anyone else.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 20, 2011 11:39 AM PST up reply actions
I assume Coco will be the first injury of those three
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 20, 2011 11:43 AM PST up reply actions
What if we re-sign them?
Or re-sign 2 and pick up another? What if Carter breaks out? What if Taylor re-discovers himself?
I hate this idea that after this season there’s absolutely nothing that can happen to salvage the future outside of blowing the team up. That is absolutely incorrect.
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
What do you mean
By “gone big”, other than sign Beltre?
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
And now John Shea has been abducted by the cult!
More detailed “print only” column in today’s Chronicle, but basically He too has succumbed to the madness!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
If you read the article he doesn't say that he thinks that the are the pick to win
further he acknowledges that being the pick to win isn’t a good predictor (mostly because many of these journalists have no idea what a projection system is).
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 10:55 AM PST up reply actions
The print article is actually better written but it's not yet available online.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
what is print?
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 10:58 AM PST up reply actions
John Shea isn't exactly the strongest authority to appeal to
I actually prefer your views to his when he does A’s analysis.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Id agree with this
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 11:19 AM PST up reply actions
the rancor could be eating an Ewok and that would have made it 10x awesomer
Yeah I keep the stickers on my A's hat and don't bend the bill. So what, big whoop, wanna fight about it?
by MudkipzGetHYPHY on Jan 20, 2011 7:50 PM PST up reply actions
I tore my labrum a year and a half ago
playing water polo. Now it is only the NCAA level, however for this sport it almost as high as it gets, and I don’t consider myself a World Class athlete, however nor do i consider Bengie Molina or Pablo Sandoval to be such athletes either
I was back in the pool after 3 months and have 0 lingering injuries, and I feel as though water polo, since it involves swimming, uses the shoulder just as much as baseball and puts a lot of strain on it.
Basically my point is this, not everyone is going to have lingering injuries, and you could come up with a list of injuries like this for every MLB team. The MASSIVE or low risk labels are opinions that we will never all agree on.
My 2 cents on the whole argument is that these people are that. They are people, not stat producing robots. I’m sure Trevor Cahill knows about his FIP-ERA difference and takes notice and tries to work on it. I’m sure the team knows that they are expected to regress defensively, and work on these things to prevent them from falling into the trends.
I don’t see any enjoyment of viewing the game as “Player X has stat Y and therefore will produce result Z over the season and our team will finish N”
Show me some stats that projected the Giants to win the WS last year, because I’m sure they did not have an outlook much brighter than ours, with Huff, Uribe, Posey, etc, coming out of nowhere to take them to the series.
Work as if everything depends on you and Pray knowing that everything depends on God. - Michael Taylor
by supermarc589 on Jan 19, 2011 4:58 PM PST reply actions 3 recs
So anything can happen and all attempts to project are useless?
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 5:22 PM PST up reply actions
That's a really gross mischaracterization of his last 3 paragraphs
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
OK I re-read them. Here's my take away from them:
1) Baseball players are people and try hard to improve
2) Projecting based on stats is not fun
3) Anything can
What am I missing?
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 6:17 PM PST up reply actions
Oops 3) Anything can happen and did last year
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 6:18 PM PST up reply actions
I never said attempts to project are useless
I myself enjoy reading all different forms of projections and previews, and find a lot of entertainment value in them.
However, when it comes down to it, MLB teams, players, and scouts have more information available to them, and I can almost guarantee that the players have seen and know all the statistics and I’m sure that all players do everything they can to change some projected regressions.
I’m sure injured players change their routines in order to get more time on the field, and with a new medical staff what is wrong with believing in some changes which should lead to a healthier team?
If all the statisticians know exactly what is going to happen, why did I buy season tickets and why do we watch the games?
According to the pessimists, the A’s season will go as follows:
ST:
Bailey is out for a longer time than expected.
Devine has setbacks.
Harden’s arm falls off.
Pennington has a setback.
First Half:
Cahill regresses and posts a ERA more reflective of his FIP.
Kouz forgets how to field grounders.
We play with 8 players because Rosales and Pennington are out, and thus Kouz’s defensive statistics go way down.
Suzuki hits .245
Second Half:
Josh Hamilton is hitting .500 and wins the triple crown with a .512 BA, 74 HR, and 200 RBI.
Matsui sets the single season record for GIDP.
Cust finishes second in MVP voting
Anderson get TJ surgery.
Ellis breaks both legs in a freak accident.
Gio leads the team in wins with 9.
The A’s finish 4th in the AL West with a 22-140 record.
Hey, at least with my 22 game pack I could potentially be an eye-witness at all the A’s victories in 2011.
Work as if everything depends on you and Pray knowing that everything depends on God. - Michael Taylor
by supermarc589 on Jan 19, 2011 9:24 PM PST up reply actions
So your point is that you find projections relating to baseball unreliable
and in the specific case of projections that are less favorable to the A’s than you would like you find them annoying?
Now have I missed anything?
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 19, 2011 10:50 PM PST up reply actions
I never said that they are unreliable
Rather they are not end all’s to the discussion that some people seem to be making them out to be.
I feel like you must feel pretty damn secure on your opinion if you’re going to start a thread openly mocking other opinions, and while sabermetrics show good details on things, it’s important to take the intangibles into account as well. I’ve played sports my whole life and the one thing I’ve learned is that you can’t quantify intangibles.
That’s all I’m saying. I appreciate the stats and believe they have good predictive value, but they are not 100%.
Work as if everything depends on you and Pray knowing that everything depends on God. - Michael Taylor
by supermarc589 on Jan 20, 2011 12:51 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Well at least well get the number 1 pick
Rendon looks much better at 3b than Kouz
you might be able to compete in 2012 with that
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 10:32 AM PST up reply actions
OPTIMISM!
Work as if everything depends on you and Pray knowing that everything depends on God. - Michael Taylor
by supermarc589 on Jan 20, 2011 1:20 PM PST up reply actions
actually thats impossible. Rendon is 2011 we would have the 2012 #1pick
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 1:28 PM PST up reply actions
MOM IM HAVING A TALK WITH MY FRIENDS
YOUR PURSE ISNT IN HERE GOSH GO AWAY
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 19, 2011 5:58 PM PST up reply actions
Powell stole a base last year.
A moment second, perhaps, only to Braden’s perfect game. I just hope that both are healthy enough to repeat.
As for everyone else, isn’t it clear enough that the Rangers have the goods to bring home another pennant, but that they are by no means guaranteed to be able to do so based on pitching and possible injuries to key players? If they can’t do this, we all can hope that enough of our guys stay healthy enough, and play well enough, to slip by them.
dfa’s post reminds me that we should expect to have plenty of guys missing some action, some of the time, but we also have decent replacement-plus depth at most of the vulnerable spots – barring 3B and C, and if more than 2 OFs go down for a long count.
I don’t think we can out-skill the Rangers, but let’s be there ready to land first place when they tank! If that is BB’s strategy, it is no worse than anything I can come up with.
"Honestly, the more I teach, the more I find myself in favor of medication. I don't think kids should take any, though." - Nico
I think "hope to luck into a division title" and "short-term rentals of costly players" are, or should be for a well-run team, mutually exclusive strategies
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
This seems a fair enough point. Which of the rentals do you refer to here?
I have been taking it that Willingham and DeJesus are reasonable signings (based on real availability on the market), and that one or the other may have a longer future with the team, but that Matsui, Balfour, and Fuentes are high-risk, low-gain, costly additions (possible exception of Balfour, here)? Or do I have this wrong?
"Honestly, the more I teach, the more I find myself in favor of medication. I don't think kids should take any, though." - Nico
I'm not a fan of the Willingham deal in particular
I don’t like him as an extension candidate, I thought the talent given up for him was probably greater (over the long haul) than what the A’s got in return, and I’m concerned that compensation draft picks might disappear, voiding a lot of Willingham’s nominal value.
It made sense as an all-in, go-for-it-now move but the A’s then followed it up by screwing around instead of making a competitive offer to Beltre, which is the exact opposite of an all-in move. Then they followed THAT up by committing a whole bunch of money to some nominal upgrades to the bullpen, as if that was the only way the team could have been improved. There’s no apparent strategy to it.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Yes, I saw some comments you made about the potential disappearance of the compensation picks.
Personally, unless I had pretty good evidence (I’m talking as my imaginary-GM self, here) that the picks would disappear, I think I would still have to count those as part of a deal. Lots of players across the league will lose value if this happens (and very few of them will be A’s), whereas coming down on the wrong side of the prediction could be disastrous.
I don’t like the whole compensation pick thing, anyway, and hope it disappears. Now that these “agreements not to tender” are popping up all over the place, it seems ridiculous. And in any case, it is not really doing much in producing parity, if that was the idea for it in the first place. Oops, I think I’m OT….
"Honestly, the more I teach, the more I find myself in favor of medication. I don't think kids should take any, though." - Nico
As I've said, I don't think either the union or the owners are happy with the results of comp picks right now
I think the union opts to get rid of them and the owners institute slotting for draft picks.
The purpose of comp picks was never to promote “parity,” it was to suppress the prices of free agents (which is why the union was opposed to it from the get-go). But that’s not working with all these teams signing “no-type-A clauses.”
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
"disappear"
I think you’ve got it backwards. It’s not a question of compensation picks being taken away. Under current rules there is nothing in place to make them happen after 2011. You should be looking for evidence that the new CBA will provide for them again, not evidence that it won’t.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Oh, you with your evidence of absence and absence of evidence and looking for what doesn't exist and existing for what can't ever be seen!
"Honestly, the more I teach, the more I find myself in favor of medication. I don't think kids should take any, though." - Nico
How much would it have cost to sign Beltre?
He obviously didn’t want to play in Oakland. It would have been necessary to make a way over market offer to get him. 100 Mill? More? I think the general consensus around here was that at that point, the negatives of signing Beltre outweighed the positives. (I was all for signing Beltre at the time for what it’s worth… I was asking to pay the man.)
If the Balfour and Fuentes deals are overpays, not a huge deal in the end. Not albatross type contracts. There was obviously money to spend. Iwakuma didn’t want it, Beltre didn’t want it… since the A’s don’t comment on FA’s, we don’t know who else didn’t want it.
In a game of inches, and a season where one win may or may not mean a division title, “nominal” upgrades can be very important.
Even when lacking a distinct strategy, bobbing and weaving through the free agent market with a sub-standard stadium and terrible attendance to make nominal improvements is nothing to be ashamed of. You have to play the cards you’re dealt in this game.
Beltre was way, way overpaid
And just plain does not want to come to Oakland, ever.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
Still waiting to hear the first shred of evidence to support this claim
which is pretty impressive, actually, because I’ve seen the claim made ten or twenty times now. Always without any justification, just like this.
Beltre would have had to have not merely liked Oakland more, but been implacably opposed to “coming to Texas, ever,” for signing the A’s offer instead of the Rangers’ offer to have not been patently insane.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Boras did mention in that Ken Rosenthal article that no one wants to play in that old stadium in front of no fans
That does seem like it played a significant factor in Beltre not wanting to play in Oakland.
Will we ever see a quote from Beltre that Oakland sucks? No, probably not, but his actions as well as his agents words seem to indicate that’s what he thinks.
by Billy Frijoles on Jan 21, 2011 10:13 AM PST up reply actions
His actions "seem to indicate" only that he was not willing to take a pay cut
AND trade off an extra year of his services just so he could have the fabulous opportunity to play in the Coliseum.
Again. The A’s offer was not competitive. It wasn’t even close to what the Rangers put on the table.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
by PaulThomas on Jan 21, 2011 3:28 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
He turned down several offers over a period of two years.
Then the second time around, he got to a price range that’s absurd. Why people think missing the opportunity to grossly overpay a barely better than average hitter until he’s 38 is some huge travesty is beyond me.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
So Paul...
After we didn’t sign Beltre, what should we have done with the money?
I get that Beltre is far and away your number one factor in explaining your beef with the team. But let’s move past that and assume it just wasn’t meant to be. What should the team have done instead of the bullpen signings (and I’m not a huge fan of them either… I just see no better option beyond hoarding the money for trades that may never materialize)? Pavano? Manny? All-in trade for Bautista?
Thing about Beltre is that
after making the “best offer so far” (but only because it was the only one) at 5/64, and then countering the Angels offer with another “best offer so far” (6/78), and then watching the Rangers make an offer (6/96) that Oakland would have to have made a poor decision to match or exceed, the A’s moved on.
Now that we know it would have taken more than $96M to sign Beltre, I’m not seeing how the A’s are hopelessly incompetent because they didn’t sign him. Because they didn’t make a good enough failed offer? And we don’t know even know that — we heard about “multiple offers” one week and never got the details.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'm not at all sure 5/85 isn't a better deal than what he got
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
But you'd have to BE sure the deal was better, most likely, because he really didn't want to play in front of small crowds- Both he and Boras mentioned this
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 20, 2011 11:11 AM PST up reply actions
Which is to say, since 5/85 is not CLEARLY better, you'd have to offer a deal that IS clearly better
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 20, 2011 11:12 AM PST up reply actions
You're overvaluing their comments, I think
But either way, Beltre probably makes $5M more on my deal than Texas’. Add an option 6th year on the same PA terms for $11M and it’s a clearly better offer.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
this
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 11:20 AM PST up reply actions
Cost of living is higher for a middle class person but at the top
end it’s more or less the same
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 20, 2011 11:23 AM PST up reply actions
In that income bracket there are plenty of ways to shelter income from taxes
I’d be interested in a full analysis of the point, but I think you’re overestimating the real difference.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I really doubt athletes can shelter that much income
It’s not like they can set up dummy subsidiaries and off-shore corporations. I work in finance and the amount of income sheltered from taxes is grossly overestimated.
agreed
I don’t do corporate stuff, but my impression is that the layperson’s impression of what one can do with (legal) tax sheltering is greatly exaggerated.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
But I also wonder if you're overestimating the
ability of professional athletes to intelligently shelter their income from taxes. As a group, they are not well known for financial savvy, nor even for entrusting their money to someone who is.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
That would seem to me where Boras comes in
But it’s entirely possible that I’m just wrong.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I know Boras does
marketing and endorsements, but I don’t think he manages clients’ money after they get it.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Not himself, but I'd be shocked if he didn't have professional relationships
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Does that rule of thumb ("you'd have to offer a deal that IS clearly better") not apply to most negotiations for all teams?
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 20, 2011 11:27 AM PST up reply actions
I'm assuming you're talking about the recent article?
Where exactly did Beltre and Boras mention that?
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 20, 2011 11:17 AM PST up reply actions
Yes. For Boras. For Beltre, it goes way back to an article about how much he loved playing at Fenway, "in front of big crowds"
I’m not in the mood to go trying to find the articles, but the fanpost and link to Boras’ comments are on the front page of AN still, I think.
The other was an SB Nation article way back when it seemed the A’s had offered 5 years, to get rid of the Red Sox who were considered maybe to still be after retaining him(when we didn’t know about the AGon trade, CC, etc.)
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 21, 2011 8:52 AM PST up reply actions
The Rangers did NOT offer Beltre 6/$96M; please do not claim that they did so
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Absent the ability to land Beltre or another high-level free agent, the A's should have blown up the team and rebuilt again
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Absolutely...
And that is precisely my point. We would have had to have been crazy to pay Beltre enough to get him to come to Oakland. We didn’t “screw around” with Beltre… we did what was reasonable.
I like having access to both viewpoints
I need some optimism to keep up hope for the season, believing that the playoffs are at least a viable possibility. But I also need some balanced skepticism, so that if the season comes crashing down, I can have the perspective to see that it was a bit of longshot anyways.
But the tension and animosity is getting to be too much…
Am I the only one bothered by the DFA's misspelling of Hideki Matsui?
Sorry, but as someone of Japanese descent, I felt I had to speak up for our new DH.
I misspell everything. Sorry bout that.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 10:26 AM PST up reply actions
It's true. DFA is an equal-opportunity misspeller.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
See, here's the thing...
… it seems like we all agree that the A’s are in the neighborhood of an 80-85 win team on paper, assuming nothing goes wrong. Some folks tend to say “Great, that means we have a shot at 95 wins” and some folks (as DFA has illustrated) say “we didn’t cover ourselves enough, and it is more likely that the win total will end up in the 70’s”
Think back to the really successful teams of the early ‘00s – what did they all have in common? The makeup of the team at the start of the season was not the same as the makeup of the team at the end. In fact, most of those teams started out abysmally and eventually recovered. It is very likely that the A’s will see a significant number of injuries. However, isn’t it also as likely that Beane/Forst will attempt to compensate for those injuries (in some cases) with trades?
The whole point of getting to 80-85 wins on paper at the start of the season is so that you have a chance to compete. If you are at least in the ballpark, you can make adjustments as the season goes on to either maintain or increase your team’s chances of winning. Beane has said several times that he uses the first third of the season to figure out what he has, and the second third to go get what he is missing.
You can argue that you don’t trust Beane and Forst to fill the gaps – that they aren’t capable of finding and getting the players that would truly help the team, but at the very least, don’t you have to give them some credit for even being in that position?
You cant trust them to fill the gaps with a bottom 10 farm system
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 10:27 AM PST up reply actions
True. It IS a last-place farm system in pitching, but it's about middle in position players. No other farm system has that big a discrepancy...
So, they still have some ability to trade at the deadline.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 20, 2011 10:30 AM PST up reply actions
not really. Green's value is likely to drop a lot since it will become more apparent he cant play D (even BA thinks so)
and you aren’t going to see huge rebounds in value from undervalued players like Cardenas. Carter’s value is probably constant and Taylor is going to be too old even if he recovers to headline a trade.
You would have to project Dixon breaks out so that you can trade him, but with our lack of OF depth you really have to keep him.
Who is worth anything that you would trade?
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 10:35 AM PST up reply actions
Carter, Choice, Green, Cabrera and Krol
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 20, 2011 10:38 AM PST up reply actions
Who wants Green when he cant play SS?
Who wants Choice when he Ks in 30% of his AB next year?
Who wants Carter when he cant play defense?
Cabrera and Krol aren’t headliners for anyone good
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 10:48 AM PST up reply actions
Well yes, no one will want them if they suck
I was thinking of Cabrera and Krol as second pieces
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 20, 2011 11:02 AM PST up reply actions
I expect them to all continue to do what they did
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 11:04 AM PST up reply actions
In that case they're all B-ish prospects. That's worth something.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 20, 2011 11:07 AM PST up reply actions
I'm just going by rankings. Sickels IIRC. You can be pessimistic about every A's prospect
But it doesn’t mean the GM’s all will
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 20, 2011 10:53 AM PST up reply actions
Basically, Sickles overrates the type of prospects that the A's have compared to the league
if Sickles is down on a prospect thats on the A’s and fits the undervalued framework, you cant expect that he has less trade value than Sickles value.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 11:00 AM PST up reply actions
Right. OK, Anything A's is actually worse than even the projections.
Why exactly does Sickels have a bias that overrates A’s prospects vs. the league?
Speaking of projections, fangraphs did sort of awesome with the A’s and Angles last year. Exact, in fact. Their projection for the 2010 wS winner? Same as the Angles…
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 20, 2011 11:05 AM PST up reply actions
No. Im not saying the will perform worse
Im saying their trade value is worse. BA’s list is more along the lines of what the industry believes, even if it is a worse list for performance value, it is a better judge of trade value.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 11:12 AM PST up reply actions
I'm not sure what you mean by "performance value" but I've not found
BA’s track record to be worse than Sickels’s in terms of identifying the best players retrospectively.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 20, 2011 11:14 AM PST up reply actions
Got it.
Anyway, fangraphs did project the 2010 Giants to win 80, so there’s some hope. (Yeah, right)
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 20, 2011 11:14 AM PST up reply actions
no they didn't
people that read fangraphs said that.
Please get this correct in the future.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 11:21 AM PST up reply actions
I have been trying to have a pleasant discussion with you
But I’ve gotta go out- no, not because of what you said.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 20, 2011 11:26 AM PST up reply actions
I thought we were having one.
Its just really bad to attribute something to someone who didn’t write/say that. When ever someone says Fangraphs Says… you should be suspicious because fangraphs is a website and doesn’t say anything, except with displaying data, and their writers have differing levels of quality.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 11:32 AM PST up reply actions
no they didn't
people that read fangraphs said that.
Please get this correct in the future.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 11:21 AM PST up reply actions
geez, sorry. I just google ti, got there, thought it was official and just a distillation
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 20, 2011 11:24 AM PST up reply actions
my network is being weird and double posting.
sorry
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 11:30 AM PST up reply actions
How do you know how other teams perceive our players?
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
we need baseball. Really, really badly.
Waffle House is good for two things: 1 – coffee; 2 – finding cheap whores -- Jennifer
Seriously, all of this shit will stop as soon as we have baseball.
I’m tempted to say the meta gets worse every year, but maybe it’s because I don’t really remember the meta- from last off-season…
Hang in there, all of you. Baseball will be back soon.
Waffle House is good for two things: 1 – coffee; 2 – finding cheap whores -- Jennifer
I think the confusion from this post comes from perspective....
This is a good post in the fact that it gets us thinking about just how much are season rests on health. I also enjoy the pessimism from certain fans which facilitates discussion.
I not totally sold on this post because of the difficulty in finding relativity. For example I would think the average baseball player plays around 145 games. They are all human and will have the random occasional injuries through out the year.
And they should be about moderate.
Kouzmanoff for example was giving Massive risk. But throughout his career he’s averaged about 145 games. I would say that’s average or even above average. Also I think even players that get hurt a lot still add value, if they are able to play a few games. Coco for example provided 2.2 WAR last year in a high season. I wouldn’t exactly call that a Massive failure.
I think if we have a scale it would be easier to judge-
Using this scale-
Massive-Justin Duchscherer types-Multiple surgeries, missed a whole year in the last two years. Made only a couple starts the year prior.
High-Milton Bradley types (Pre being arrested) over his 10 year career he’s still average 100 games a year.
Moderate-McGwire types-Going to give you some 150 game seasons. Some seasons of 20 games. Just the regular wear and tear of baseball.
Low-Alex Rodriguez types-Plays almost every games. Seasons of 162. Lows of 130 games. You’re confident he’s going to be on the field.
Very Low-Tejada/Cal/Ziot-162 games, or 35 starts-Rare players. (Zito barring being on the bench)
Going back to our team with that scaling: (This is off the top of my head sorry if there are gross inaccuracies)
Using historical games played, taking into account age, and recentness of injuries. I will give my own assessment of.
1b-Barton-Low expect ~140 games
2b. Ellis-High expect ~95 games
SS-Penny-moderate expect ~130 (starting on DL)
3b~Kouzmanoff-Low expect 140 games.
OF-DeJesus-Moderate expect 125 games.
OF-Crisp-High expect-70 games.
OF-Willingham-High expect 80 games.
Bench
Sweeney-High expect him to be available ~80 games
Rosey-Moderate-Expect 130 available-
Conor Jackson-Expect 80 Games available.
Pitching (who are harder because their history is shorter)
Anderson-Moderate-expect 25 starts
Cahill-Low-Expect 30+ starts
Gio-Low-expect 30+Start
Dallas-High/Moderate-expect 20 starts
McCarthy/Harden-High-expect 15 starts
Ziggy-Low-~Available all seasons.
Bailey-Moderate/High available to relieve 110 games
Fuentes-Low~All season available
Weurtz-High-Available 80 games
Balfour-Moderate-Available most of the season.
Breslow-Low available all season
McCarthy/Harden-High Expect 90 game availability.
by OnlybuyBeaneJerseys on Jan 20, 2011 1:21 AM PST reply actions
Oh and to clarify...
When I say expect. I don’t really mean expect. I can’t predict the future. It’s not as much the number of games expected, as it’s the number of games value.
For example: Brett Anderson. I thought 50 percent chance he’s out for the season with TJ after 15 starts. 50 Percent makes it through the season. ie 25 starts.
Harden/McCarty were together out of Laziness. Sorry I have a final next week and a masters thesis to write.
I missed Matsui. Lets say moderate-130 games
by OnlybuyBeaneJerseys on Jan 20, 2011 3:58 AM PST up reply actions
These seem perfectly reasonable as a first guess
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 20, 2011 5:03 AM PST up reply actions
Thanks if you have any improvements.
Or changes. Please help.
by OnlybuyBeaneJerseys on Jan 20, 2011 7:18 AM PST up reply actions
I'd switch Anderson and Braden
I expect around 25 from Braden and either nearly all his starts, or less than 15 from Anderson.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 20, 2011 7:27 AM PST up reply actions
Hey look, the Yankees just signed Andruw Jones, who is a billion times better than Conor Jackson,
for over a million fewer dollars than Conor Jackson.
Boy, this offseason is going swell, folks!
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I think Dan is the only one here who has a woody for Conor Jackson
Rather have Andruw Jones for money only or Willingham for the dudes we gave up for him?
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 20, 2011 2:34 PM PST up reply actions
Jones by far. Willingham costs dudes and like 4m more
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 2:39 PM PST up reply actions
Not just Dan.
I also have a woody for Conor Jackson.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Even I think he should have been nontendered.
I like the guy, and I think there’s a significant nonzero chance he turns out decent, but there’s no way in hell that was worth 3+ mil.
I agree with this
Jackson has a reasonable chance at being an OK player. He’s not a good fit at all for the current A’s team and especially not at 3MM.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Why would Beane sign Conor Jackson?
(a) Beane is stupid.
(b) Beane is being swayed by undue personal attachment.
(c) Beane knows that Jackson is better than we think he is.
I’m hoping that the correct answer turns out to be (c).
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
kudos on not getting the auto correct copyright c
I am only pretty on the outside
dannycakes can also be called "hipsterbot"
Wait, so he's not getting double what Jackson got?
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 20, 2011 2:57 PM PST up reply actions
shocker i know right?
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 20, 2011 2:58 PM PST up reply actions
Only to some of us.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 20, 2011 3:02 PM PST up reply actions
No, though he clearly should be
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
BUT CONOR JACKSON PLAYS GOLD GLOVE CALIBER DEFENSE
at multiple positions!!! And he’s the only survivor of “valley fever” to ever come to terms on a multimillion dollar contract post fever. AMAZING.
Who’s this Andruw Jones?
Andruw Jones has been completely falling apart for the last 3 seasons.
Getting pissed about him, Connor Jackson and a million bucks - that is -- acting like it’s yet more proof that this off season is a complete failure is borderline hyperbole.
by sleepingcobra on Jan 21, 2011 7:54 AM PST up reply actions
.....and what exactly has Jackson been doing the past 3 seasons?
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 21, 2011 9:13 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah lenscrafters, I'm trying to say Connor Jackson is awesome.
Read my post again:
Lamenting a $1,000,000 difference between two beat-up clunkers as more proof of a bad offseason is unreasonable – bordering on hyperbolic. There’s no two ways around it.
by sleepingcobra on Jan 21, 2011 10:32 AM PST up reply actions
No, I'm not saying that you're saying Jackson is awesome.
The obvious conclusion from your stance of the two players as “beat up clunkers” is that neither should have any significant money spent on them at all. The fact that the A’s did, on Jackson, is indeed a tick in the “this offseason was bad” column, not the fact that Jones cost 1 million less than Jackson. That’s a tick in the “front office can’t read the market for shit” column.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 21, 2011 11:32 AM PST up reply actions
What the hell is 'significant money?'
Is it $3MM? Is it $2MM? 1? The league minimum is fast approaching $0.5MM. What is the ‘significant money’ benchmark?
I agree that Connor Jackson is probably making around $1M more than he’s worth, if the generally accepted WAR-to-dollar ratio is accurate. But slightly (we can all agree that twice the league minimum is “slightly,” right?) overpaying a beat up 5th OF who has a nonzero chance to provide average value if he’s healthy and given enough playing time doesn’t even remotely fall in either of the Kool Aid categories PT and now you are putting it in.
by sleepingcobra on Jan 21, 2011 12:58 PM PST up reply actions
"Significant" is, of course, all relative.
I find paying a “beat up 5th OF” 3 million dollars to be a despicable use of resources for a team with our financial restraints. Especially considering that 3 million was the difference between our per year offer to Beltre and Texas’s. And considering that he would have likely had trouble finding a major league deal at all if he was non-tendered. So yes, it’s quite significant in that context.
And I would like to know what you mean by “nonzero chance to be average”. Jackson’s only had one year out of his entire career in which he provided average or higher value. That was 3 years and a cacophony of injuries ago. ZiPS has him projected for an abysmal 74 OPS+. And since he’s very unlikely to be a better than league average fielder, and he (presumably) will have the playing time of a 5th outfielder, I’m not sure where else he’s going to derive this “average” value from. If you’re using “nonzero chance to be average” in the same way that, oh I don’t know, Neifi Perez has a “nonzero chance of being average”, then I guess that makes sense.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 21, 2011 4:23 PM PST up reply actions
'Nonzero' is likewise relative.
Before I address that, though, you can’t count the whole $3MM as ‘significant.’ A player making the minimum in his place would be pulling down a cool half-mil, so really it’s a 2.5 million investment above what the team would be legally obligated to pay a spray-painted corpse sitting on the bench. Then you have to consider what actual value he’ll provide. Let’s just go way out on a limb and say he’ll be barely above replacement value in 2011 and pull a 0.5 WAR out of his ass. If you’re willing to accept that 1 WAR is worth $4MM, then Connor will be worth about 2 million bucks. Like I said before, I agree that he’s being overpaid about a million bucks – but we’re all reasonable people, and we can agree that it’s probably just as likely that his eyeballs explode in spring training as it is that he gets tons of playing time and stays sort of healthy and kicks ass to the tune of 1 full, shitty WAR. Honestly I can only arrive at the conclusion that counting this as more proof of Billy Beane being batshit insane is a bunch of twisty-twirly anti-front-office hooey.
Now what about the non-zero remark? We’re looking at 3 possible explanations for Connor Jackson, really:
1) Beane and co. rightly feel that the payoff is worth the risk. They’ve projected that he’s got average-to-above average upside, can play pretty ok D and can hit kind of well, and that recovering from Valley Fever is sort of unprecedented in MLB and isn’t accounted for in CHONE or whatever and that, at the end of the day, as a 3 million dollar 5th OF he’ll do just fine and the team has protection if Sweeney goes down and they’ll more or less get their investment back.
2) Beane is so vain he’s trying to shield his pride from the fact that he traded a reliever who xFIPped 3.71 last year for a useless pile of junk.
3) Beane and co. are intentionally trying to put a losing product on the field as a part of a fastidiously hidden, big ass conspiracy.
4) Beane and co. just just flat out dumb.
If you and I and Paul Thomas were playing guitar together around the campfire and drinking red wine and being reasonable, I bet we’d all agree that the answer is somewhere between 1 and 2, and not 3 and 4, where the vitriol behind the team signing Connor Jackson lays.
by sleepingcobra on Jan 21, 2011 7:29 PM PST up reply actions
By the way, I rescind my "Kool Aid" comment at the end.
I started reading more of this thread and, considering the tone here, I just wanted to let you know I’m trying to be playful – not antagonistic in a mean way.
by sleepingcobra on Jan 21, 2011 1:19 PM PST up reply actions
Andruw Jones has been an above-average player, albeit in part-time roles, in the last two seasons
Conor Jackson has been cover-your-eyes horrible.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
If Jackson can recover from his post-fever slump
He can be an above average player, in a full time role. Seems like a million-dollar risk to me.
by sleepingcobra on Jan 21, 2011 3:56 PM PST up reply actions
With the possible exception of iglew, I can't remember a single comment on AN supporting the decision to tender CoJax
And, of course, even Rajai was a millionX better than Jackson and cost a lot less. Conor Jackson is the walking dead.
One wasted roster spot, on a team that can’t afford that.
Still, the A’s mostly addressed, in one fashion or another, most of their most glaring black holes.
You are certain you could have addressed the same needs but in a better- and more efficient- way, and have offered an actual path that might have gotten that done (since your path involved trades and a hypothetical offer that Beltre and Boras would have accepted, you can’t be certain it would have worked).
It really still comes down to Beltre, and the baseball world is littered with the skeletons of former GM’s who ‘went big’ and it didn’t pan out, and that risk calculation is one that I’m glad I’m not charged with making…
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 21, 2011 9:12 AM PST up reply actions
We can pick on Beane's decision regarding the 25th man on the roster
But this is almost a red herring.
Yeah, CoJack sucks, but the rest of the team is markedly improved.
And I’m ok with Beane gambling a little bit on upside.
by Billy Frijoles on Jan 21, 2011 10:23 AM PST up reply actions
This is good
@Ken_Rosenthal
Ken Rosenthal
Sources: #Angels trade Napoli to #BlueJays, pending physical. #MLB
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
For Vernon Wells
Possibly the funniest thing ever
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
Apparently the Jays get Juan Rivera (who KILLS us every time) as well.
EPIC Halos Heaven thread there, just de-bloody-licious.
No more Napoli, they are stuck with Johnny Mathis forever!!!!!!!
Empires may crumble, FIP statistics may lose their meaning, but only a Keetsa mattress puts years back on your life while you're sleeping.
by emperor nobody on Jan 21, 2011 4:35 PM PST up reply actions
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