Why The 2011 A's Are Poised To Contend, Plain And Simple
by Nico on Jan 17, 2011 6:08 PM PST
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PrintFirst of all, it will probably take 90 wins to get into the playoffs but it probably won't take 95. The Rangers look to be neither great nor mediocre, but rather "quite good," with the biggest question marks currently being how well will Josh Hamilton recover from pneumonia, how healthy will the perennially injured Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler be, and how well will the worse of Colby Lewis and CJ Wilson pitch?
Good news on any of these fronts helps the Rangers a lot, but bad news on any could be derailing. Ultimately, you're looking at a team that experienced a big loss (Cliff Lee) and a big gain (Adrian Beltre), plus a small loss (Vlad Guerrero), a taem that on one hand won 90 games in 2010 but on the other hand played .500 ball against the American League. It's a good team and going into any season you should expect to need to win 90 games to earn a playoff berth. Can the A's reasonably hope to do that?
The 2010 A's won 81 games, and by their Pythag should have won more like 84 games. Let's not look at the players, new and old, one by one for a moment, but rather let's look at this, the four most basic components of the game:
The 2011 offense looks a lot better than the 2010 offense.
The 2011 bullpen looks better than the 2010 bullpen.
The 2011 defense looks about the same as the 2010 defense (I'll elaborate below).
The 2011 rotation looks about the same as the 2010 rotation.
The offense:
How much better does the offense look to be? Last season, Ryan Sweeney batted 3rd a lot and this year he figures to open the season as a 4th OFer. Kurt Suzuki and Kevin Kouzmanoff batted 3rd and 4th a lot and this year figure to bat 6th and 7th. Josh Willingham, David DeJesus, and Hideki Matsui, who would have been 3 of the team's top 5 hitters last year, have been added, and one of the other two, Daric Barton, is still here.
The bullpen:
Perhaps the A's money wasn't most wisely spent on relievers, but the fact that it has been spent there strengthens the bullpen, mostly by deepening it. Bailey has a darn good understudy in Devine, Wuertz and Balfour give the A's two legitimate set-up men from the right side, Breslow is still in the mix, and now Ziggy and Fuentes can often be used in the ROOGY/LOOGY roles for which they are best suited. And Harden. And Blevins (who can be stashed at AAA so that the first injury is not a big problem at all). Folks, this is an excellent bullpen even if you pick out 3 pitchers and assign them to be injured or ineffective.
The defense:
Sure, Kevin Kouzmanoff will almost certainly regress, at least in the eyes of the UZR rating that placed him on a pedestal, and Mark Ellis is a year older at an age where "a year older" usually matters, but by the same token Kurt Suzuki will probably rebound from a strangely bad defensive season, David DeJesus is an excellent addition to the OF, Coco Crisp may play in more games than he did last year, and Ryan Sweeney figures to be more of a factor.
But that's just to say, "some things will be better, some worse, and a lot will even out in the wash" -- it's not why I am optimistic that the A's defense will once again be a significant strength. I'm optimistic because defense isn't played by each individual's one-year UZR and subsequent regression/progression.
There are easy to field balls, medium ones, tough chances, and impossible ones. Now look around the diamond. When Brett Anderson is pitching and a bunch of ground balls are hit to the left side -- some one-hoppers to 3B, some bouncers between 3B and SS, some choppers up the middle, and so on -- how do you feel about Kouzmanoff's and Pennington's chances of making the play? How about when Trevor Cahill is pitching, and Mark Ellis and Daric Barton have to pursue a series of ground balls to the right side? The outfield, with DeJesus, Crisp, and Willingham/Sweeney (late innings) offers the same level of assurance: The A's are going to, as a team, field very well overall -- plays are going to get made, pitchers made to look good.
The rotation: Same core group (Anderson, Cahill, Gio, Braden), all with big league experience but not past their prime, with at least some depth in McCarthy, Harden, Outman, and Ross.
In summary, the A's, coming off an 81-win season that looks on paper like it was good for 84 if you changed nothing, figure to trot out a team with about the same starting pitching and defense, a better and deeper bullpen, and a much better lineup. Get psyched.
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Congrats Nico-you've made it through half off january. 15 more days to go
On a (semi) serious note, I’m thoroughly pumped for this season. I think if you made on mistake in your logic, its that our rotation is probably actually going to improve, as anderson will hopefully pitch a full year and gio will continue to mature, with cahill maybe slightly regressing and braden staying the same. its going to be a great year
www.kapayne.tumblr.com
The month is young, my friend.
I’m doing everything I can to cause disaster and I truly believe I can make January, 2011 the Januariest January of them all.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Simple and yet beautful
I already bought my 22 Game Pack last week. Getting super excited
"I was right and you were wrong." - Ray Fosse
If they don't contend
it’s your fault for posting this.
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
hell hath no fury like a Cowboys fan scorned. -Leopold Bloom
not only that
Cindi is gonna be pissed if the A’s don’t score more points than the other team!
"You're early, but hang around; we'll have a fight for you sooner or later."
-John "Blue Moon" Odom
That's why I wanted us to get a better third-platesman!
Not Adrian Beltran, though — she’s in my History class and I can’t see her playing for ANY team that hopes to be considered Hotties.
-Cindi
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
So shallow...
:q
"You're early, but hang around; we'll have a fight for you sooner or later."
-John "Blue Moon" Odom
why texas will be worse is simple
Josh Hamilton will not repeat last season, monster numbers… no shot he will replicate.
Vlad first half was monsterous as well. Not there anymore.
Cliff Lee HE GONE
CJ Wilson his arm will fall off due to massive amounts of innings pitched last season.
josh hamilton CAN repeat last year
if not improve if he can stay healthy. he’s that good
www.kapayne.tumblr.com
.359 batting average???
no chance. maybe near the 30 hr range… but not average
Josh Hamilton is incredibly talented,
and thus totally capable of repeating a great year. However, he is also coming back from a significant illness, in a body he abused for several years, trying to re-create a season that would be difficult for anyone to repeat anyway.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
i forgot about the pneumonia
that could seriously affect him. i think his general rates will go down but overall production go up since i dont think he’ll miss that much time again
www.kapayne.tumblr.com
I wouldn't put too much stock in the pneumonia, though
I personally had pneumonia and it took less than a month to be back at full strength. Of course, I never did what Hamilton did to his body, but I still think his health, with regards to this, will be ok by the middle of spring training at the latest, and he’ll be fine by opening day.
There have been recent examples of players not recovering as quickly
Brad Ziegler comes to mind.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 17, 2011 8:06 PM PST up reply actions
Also Swisher, when he had mono.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
mono fucks with everybody. Look at Roger Federer; wiped out
a huge part of his tennis season. Roddick, too. I’m just of the belief that with the season two and half-three months away, there is ample time for him to recover. And I hope he does. I’ll never wish ill health on anybody.
I think he'll recover
He may just not have his best season. Or he might, but he was ripe for a letdown anyway and starting out weak isn’t ideal. Don’t get me wrong, he’s still a great player; it’s just like Bailey having surgery but being “on track for Opening Day” — he’ll probably be ok but it’s another issue that’s “out there” for the team.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
It's not so much Mononucleosis that sets Hamilton back...
…It’s the walls he crashes into. He had rib injuries as a result of the fence getting in the way of his catches which led to rib injuries that put him down. He’ s not going to change the way he plays and thus puts his large frame in a vulnerable state. Cruz is unreliable to remain healthy and Vlad really protected Hamilton with his great first half last year. I don’t know but doubt Beltre will offer the same protection.
Pneumonia or Mono can knock you down especially if playing in extreme climates but overall the complications of each disease as bacteria are from viruses with regards to their potential effects on the body.
"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King
Roger Federer kissed Andy Roddick?
Interesting.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
when the score is Love-Love
ya gotta back it up!
by Kallus on Jan 17, 2011 9:47 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Why don't you offer him/her an alternative?
It would suck to be called naive and then not have any idea why. Wouldn’t you think?
Take your silver mod tubescreamer, your dr. z, your nocaster, put them in a pile and burn them. if god gave you a thousand years, you still couldn't touch this. you can't f***ing keep time to this.
A better argument would be his ridiculously high BABIP
""Expelliarmus!" said Eckstein, attempting to knock the bat out of Matt Kemp's hands, just before Kemp laced a single to center." -Ken Tremendous
by Cheezombie on Jan 17, 2011 10:36 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I Think I'm In Love, And I Can't Get Enough....
2011, the year optimism reigns supreme.
by AsFan72 on Jan 17, 2011 6:29 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Sigh
There’s nothing “more real” about saying that the starting pitching will be the same following a huge Cahill year. Or that the defense will be the same after huge Kz and Barton years.
I would expect regression from Braden and Cahill, hopefully but far from certainly balanced by a healthy Anderson and the upgrade from Sheets to not-Sheets. I would expect regression from the entire infield defensively, which will certainly not be made up by Willingham.
But clap louder and be condescending. I hope it works.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Haters gonna hate!
It’s coo’.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 17, 2011 6:35 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
-1
But clap louder and be condescending.
Seriously? I didn’t see any of that in Nico’s post.
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 17, 2011 6:41 PM PST up reply actions
You skipped the very first sentence?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
You're right
That first sentence was condescending.
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 17, 2011 7:25 PM PST up reply actions
Really? Interesting -- I've re-read it three times and still don't see it.
“I think people who think x are overthinking it by looking at y and not looking instead at z.”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
that's not what you said.
You claimed that your simpler view was “more real” than WAR and projections. Whatever the hell that means
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
"A better reflection of what we can expect."
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Yes, really.
It’s dismissive of their point. I agree with your point because I prefer to think that the predictors miss often and cannot possibly account for breakouts and prospects that pan and contribute. That and I just enjoy hoping that this team is going to be competive rather than predicting the worst. I still haven’t seen anyone seriously attempt to explain the value in being the realist/pessimist.
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 17, 2011 9:41 PM PST up reply actions
Honestly, I didn't think it was dismissive, just disagreeing of,
but I deleted it because I’d prefer the focus to be on the content and not on the meta.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
The value in being realistic
is not being broken hearted when the team goes 82-80 because you were deluded into thinking it was a 90 win team, and not wondering why Texas seems to always have a 3-4 game lead on us in the standings.
It’s looking back, when the A’s win the AL West this year because Barton gets even better, Anderson stays healthy and dominates, Cahill has a legit breakout season, and Carter learns to play LF competently and sets the AL on fire and saying “Shit, all these dudes outperformed their projections and we won 93 games. AWESOME!”
How that is any less legit than thinking the team is going to win the WS every year and then being crushed when they finish .500 and 10 games back, I have no idea. Whatever, I have already wasted far too much time on this shit tonight.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
With this team I won't have to be brokenhearted
There’s no way in hell, barring injuries to key plyers [a big if mind you], that this team doesn’t win 86 games and make the division interesting. And if those injuries do happen…well, that’s when my heartbreak will begin and there will be a satisfactory explanation for it. Until then, I choose not to be heartbroken from the outset to supposedly save myself from some false hope/heartbreak emotiona set-up.
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 17, 2011 10:00 PM PST up reply actions
I am curious to see if the value in doing this is a universal one amongst the pessimistic crowd.
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 17, 2011 10:22 PM PST up reply actions
I object to even being labeled a member of "the pessimistic crowd"
If I thought the A’s projected to win the division, I’d say that.
I am also a fan of Cal basketball— guess who I projected to win the Pac-10 in 2009-2010? That’s right, Cal. Somewhat at odds with the balance of prognosticators, who preferred Washington by roughly a 2-1 margin IIRC. And I got it right (though I actually overestimated slightly the number of games they’d win). Not exactly the typical actions of the Eeyore-like pessimist I seem to be portrayed as by some around here, eh?
Regardless of whether I was actually “right” to pick Cal, or just lucky, the point is that what I care about is attempting to get it right and not in chanting along with the liturgy.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
...
I object to even being labeled a member of “the pessimistic crowd”
I’m not sure what would be an appropriate label. You seem to be angry at the front office and quite convinced that the Athletics have less than a 20% chance of competing for the AL West title. On top of that you also seem to be hell bent on tempering the high(er) expectations that others wish to maintain for this upcoming season. I really was just seeking to understand where this comes from.
If I thought the A’s projected to win the division, I’d say that.
And had the team gotten Beltre [and not made the bullpen moves] do you feel that they’d be projected as the favs?
I am also a fan of Cal basketball— guess who I projected to win the Pac-10 in 2009-2010? That’s right, Cal.
I do not follow college basketball so much of this is lost on me. However, this seems to illustrate for me that your motive [for the lack of a better word] is to demonstrate to others how good you are at predicting things. If i’m correct, is this to be able to say, “I told you so.” or for others to marvel at how wise and smart you are? If I am not correct, please fill me in so I can see the value in this is for you.
Regardless of whether I was actually "right" to pick Cal, or just lucky, the point is that what I care about is attempting to get it right and not in chanting along with the liturgy.
And the real value from ‘getting it right’ is?
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 17, 2011 10:54 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
The amateur psychoanalysis is really getting tedious
I’m not playing along.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
So is the pessimism
And, through not answering, I have a pretty good idea why you’re doing it.
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 18, 2011 2:30 PM PST up reply actions
You can think whatever you want to
I can’t stop you. I mean, it’s completely made up, but who am I to interfere with your make-believe?
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I asked you...
…but who am I to interfere with your make-believe?
…to interfere if I had it wrong. I even wrote the word ‘please’. You seemed to want me to draw the conclusion that I did.
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 18, 2011 4:57 PM PST up reply actions
"If you are not a howling jackass, please deny it to me."
Whatever.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Do you ever wonder why sometimes we see
conversations where each person is determined to have the last word?
It’s bad enough when people draw conclusions based on what we do say. Now you’re going to draw conclusions based on the fact that Paul didn’t take your bait?
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
by iglew on Jan 18, 2011 2:59 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs
Yes, ignoring a comment is often misconstrued as
“I have no suitable rebuttal,” when oftentimes it’s just, “I don’t really care to engage in this anymore.”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
or sometimes it's
“Crap, I spent three hours on AN yesterday. I’d better not open this thread today or I’ll never get anything done.”
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
No, that's when you spend three more hours on AN.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 19, 2011 10:47 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
usually it is I don't have a substantial rebuttal.
if there was a substantial rebuttal then everyone would benefit from that rebutal
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 3:44 PM PST up reply actions
I think it's definitely a personality thing.
I’m the opposite. I’d much rather accept a late-season heartbreak in order to avoid five months of gloominess than accept five months of gloominess to avoid a late-season heartbreak.
Then again, I’d much rather wake up to a gray sky with drizzle in the air than a bright sunny day, so go figure. We all have our preferences.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
but it's not gloominess
gloominess would be thinking this is a 72 win team or the Pirates or Royals or something.
Saying this team is going to need some things to break right for them to win the division is hardly doom and gloom.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
But that's not what some folks are saying
I think the “optimists” are peeved because some “pessimists” are saying the franchise is doomed for the greater part of the next decade. Some are saying the team is devoted to mediocrity.
That’s what seems to upset people the most.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 17, 2011 10:58 PM PST up reply actions
Yea this
And we are constantly beat over the head with it. We can’t post anything without being told how wrong we are about something that no one can know for sure.
Rather, it's presented as a fact, with an error of +/_ x.
As if that is somehow different from a guess.
NO. IT. ISN'T.
Nobody tries to say that projections are fact.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Its not what they say, it is HOW they sat it.
by Tutu-late on Jan 18, 2011 9:35 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
omfg.
Every time someone talks about projections, do we need to have a little disclaimer that says “Okay kid, don’t forget that we’re talking about projections here, and it’s possible someone gets hurt or someone breaks out and overperforms these, or someone really sucks and underperforms them, but generally this is a reasonably good estimate of what might happen.”
Stop trying to hard to discredit projections. I can promise you a hell of a lot more time goes into them than someone just saying “Well, the bullpen is better, and the rotation should be better, and the offense is better, and the defense should be good again, OMFG WE’RE WINNING 90 GAMES!!!!”
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Then stop discrediting non-statistical preditions as witchcraft!
Just because time is invested does NOT make a statistical prediction any more valid.
You're right.
Time doesn’t make things more valid. Evidence does.
by danmerqury on Jan 18, 2011 10:39 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
And what is evidence?
IMO, evidence is just information. Some good, some bad. You yourself told me that UZR is not accurate because it depends on an uncertain amount of info. So, now statistical predictions come down to people picking and choosing which stats they wish to use. I admit that the STATS themselves are a fact(eg., a BA is that BA). The predictions are based on a non-consistant choice of stats are no more accurate than non-stat-based predictions. If stat-based predictions based on a set of agreed upon stats,( and only those stats), then they can be said to have somewhat of an advantage. The problem is that even those in the stat business can’t agree on which stats to us. So, how is this different than people who base their prediction on personal obsevations?
Because personal observations even more inherently flawed
At least stats take every game into consideration; personal observation takes only a small sampling of data combined with an infinite amount of random factors inside somebody’s head.
There is place for personal observation, but I find, out of personal experience, that my personal observations, even after a lifetime around the game of baseball, are just flat out wrong when I actually look into the subject. Therefore, I look for something more concrete.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 18, 2011 10:55 AM PST up reply actions
Gotta agree with dan here
I want to make that clear in case I get lumped in with the other side here. I am not quibbling with the the veracity of the stats, but rather how they are presented at times. I am not a fan of wild guess and unsubstantiated claims.
Though the longer-term pessimism is less supported by the stats… it is somewhat logical, but far from a foregone conclusion. And that is what I alluded to above.
Kindly show where I've ever done that.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
I agree with Mike on this
When the stat guys make predictions, they’re just making predictions like anyone else. I don’t understand why some people get all hypersensitive and say “OMG, you’re stating it as fact when it isn’t really fact”.
But here’s the thing. Even if the stat guys really are stating it as fact, so what? Suppose the conversation really does go like this:
Fan: Woo-hoo! A’s are going to be awesome! I really feel like we can win 90 games this season.
Stat guy: No, you are incorrect. The A’s project to be a 75-win team this year. They would have to be very lucky even to reach 500 again.
Even if that really is how it goes, why does that have to be a problem? Why can’t fan just let stat guy say what he says and not get all bent out of shape about it?
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
It's a problem because...
Even if that really is how it goes, why does that have to be a problem?
…because that’s not the way dialogue should go, stated in absolutes. The person on the receiving end of such bullshit ought to be able to write back, “FU…just watch this season and if you end up being wrong I’ll link to your stupid shit to let you, and everyone else know, what an asshole you were in stating this as an absolute and saying I was wrong. You were the one who ended up being wrong you f’ing jerk”.
But that kind of stuff won’t fly with the guidlines. However, that “you’re wrong” stuff is deliberately provacative and incindiary. I do get bent out of shape over this. A weakness on my part. I wonder how many people share that sentiment.
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 18, 2011 2:40 PM PST up reply actions
This post demonstrates, better than any I've ever seen,
my long-held belief that most people truly cannot tell the difference between being told they are wrong about something and being personally insulted. LCJ has just— in so many words— stated that the two are morally equivalent. Telling someone they are incorrect is indistinguishable from calling them a “fucking jerk.”
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
by PaulThomas on Jan 18, 2011 2:59 PM PST up reply actions 5 recs
I just got here and hella rec'ed it
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 18, 2011 3:17 PM PST up reply actions
And yet while holding this belief...
…you will still have this habit of telling people they are wrong or writing something else along the same lines. If you know many people are going to be insulted [and that is their problem, not really yours], I hold the belief that you are taking pleasure in getting a negative reaction from these people. That, as you would say, is ‘bad faith’.
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 18, 2011 3:33 PM PST up reply actions
WTF is the problem with telling somebody they are wrong???
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
On a fact? Nothing
On an opinion? A whole bunch. But I’’ve tried it below, myself, to see how it goes. In general, it is a pretty mean-spirited thing to communicate if you full well know the other person will be insulted. There’s a much better way to disagree with someone else’s opinion without outright telling them that they’re wrong. Do you see where I’m coming from.
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 18, 2011 3:55 PM PST up reply actions
Nothing at all
I actually get my jollies from calling people fat. They usually aren’t clinically obese or anything so it’s just my opinion, but if you can pinch an inch…
I have no idea what this is supposed to mean.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 18, 2011 4:48 PM PST up reply actions
Catch up with Kelloggs commercials...
I for one now know beyond a doubt that you’re younger than 40
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
There are easier ways to figure that out
Like my profile pic.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 18, 2011 9:33 PM PST up reply actions
Okay Tiger.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
So, with this knowledge, we're just supposed to never disagree?
Since we know people will be insulted, we should just accommodate them, and stop telling people they’re wrong?
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 18, 2011 3:37 PM PST up reply actions
No, I just don't care
If someone insists on taking offense at some fundamentally inoffensive thing I say, like telling them they’re wrong about something, that’s their problem. My goal is to inform people who want to be informed about an issue, which not uncommonly is a set of people which actually excludes the person to whom I am replying.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
In that case PT
You my friend are incorrect
Opinions, by definition can't be wrong.
by AsFan72 on Jan 18, 2011 4:17 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
"I think 1+1=3"
Wrong.
“[x] is my favorite player”
Can’t be wrong.
Opinions about objective things can be wrong.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
1+1=3 is static, definite.
This team is only going to win this many games because x,y and z happened in the past is an opinion based on an educated (sometimes extremely educated) guess.
Then we agree that the statement I was responding to is incorrect
Right?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I agree with this...
The problem is that how many games the A’s are going to win next year isn’t an objective thing. We don’t really know if the A’s will in fact be good next year because it’s not next year yet.
And in fact this argument won’t even be settled after the season is played because if the A’s are in fact good the fans will say “See I told you so!” to which the stat heads will say “Of course they were good players x y and over performed…” or something like that.
And if the A’s are bad the stat heads will all say “See I told you so!” to which the fans will say “Of course they were bad players x y and z underperformed…”
Congratulations, we all get to be right forever.
Now who wants to argue about health care?
by Max Hartman on Jan 18, 2011 4:28 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm not saying it is
I’m setting a spectrum.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Okay...
But I think this is essentially the root of the problem. How good the A’s are going to be next year is far from the objective end of the fact/opinion spectrum.
I don’t understand how anybody can be offended by a projection one way or the other and I don’t really understand what the point of telling somebody that there (reasonable) projection is a bunch of malarky. We simply do not know.
I’ve said it before: I think the Rangers are probably better than we are but I think we have a chance to catch them. And my sentiments are both informed by statistical analysis and clouded by pro-Athletics bias.
Sure
In fact you’ve seen projection-criticism from both sides in this kerfuffle, as well as criticism of projection-criticism from both sides.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I'd like to thank you for using the word 'kerfuffle'
since iglew hasn’t yet seen fit to do so.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 8:07 PM PST up reply actions
I was holding out for "foofaraw".
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
really?
My favorite player is still Barry Zito. Somehow I get the vibe I can be wrong.
by barryzitoforever on Jan 25, 2011 10:36 PM PST up reply actions
Yes you would be wrong
It is known as a fact that the Earth is a sphere. If someone erroneously believed it was flat — and regarded that as a deeply held opinion — it is a fact first and foremost.
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 18, 2011 4:49 PM PST up reply actions
The problem is....
…that telling someone that they are wrong because of an opinion that cannot definitively proven one way or another is pretty much the same as calling them a fucking jerk. I mean, you ever try and tell religious person that their god doesn’t exist?
Personally, I think people who feel inclined to tell people how wrong they are all the time are in my view “fucking jerks”, we should all live and let live, but I digress…
I don’t think the anonymity of internet message boards are all that good at creating environments where people can actually have a substantive dialogue about their opinions.
In real life I’m sure the overwhelming majority of us ANers could discuss our various views of the 2011 A’s prospects and we would all look each other in the eye and get along swimmingly. But put us behind a keyboard and we all become a bunch of fucking jerks.
by Max Hartman on Jan 18, 2011 4:59 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs
This!
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 18, 2011 5:01 PM PST up reply actions
Only because some
jerk may actually reach across the table and throttle the effing life out of you. People are funny that way.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
No.
Putting everyone behind a keyboard does not make people become a bunch of “fucking jerks”. Putting everyone behind a keyboard causes many people from different backgrounds to come together.
Different micro-cultures have different notions of what is rude and what is not. For many people, it is perfectly normal when you disagree with an opinion to say “no, you’re wrong”. It is not considered an insult at all, merely a way of engaging in conversation. For these people, being pressured not to share their views is what feels like a violation of “live and let live”.
Each subcommunity gets along just fine, regardless of differences of opinion, because there is general agreement about the proper way to express opinion. The Internet brings together people with different conventions, and offense is taken where it is not intended.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
by iglew on Jan 19, 2011 10:25 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
No
Internet < Phone < Video Chatting < Real Life
There are so many nuances and subtleties in real honest to goodness human interaction that are by definition lacking in our internet conversations. When people can’t see our body language or our facial expressions or hear our tone we are more likely to be misunderstood. We create social conventions in order to try an limit misunderstandings, but our conventions our limited.
You may be right that if you and I were standing face to face and you told me that I was “wrong” for my opinion you may demonstrate enough non-verbal cues that I won’t think I am being belittled or dismissed. On the internets you would probably have to be the most nuanced amazing blog writer to be able to pull of the same feat.
Facts are emails and blog posts are notoriously misunderstood, and if you are a person who has a hard time not offending people in real life it will probably be even harder for you to not look like a jerk on these e-mediums.
If you don’t want to come off like a jerk and you want to participate in conversations then I most definitely believe the onus is on you to do your best to communicate clearly and to be conscious of the fact that we have to be more careful when talking to each other online.
Also...
I’m not saying that everyone behind a keyboard is a fucking jerk, that was simply bravado to make a point. But again, this can serve as an example to show how limited and easily misunderstood we are in our e-communications.
The bottom line, for me, is that if people misunderstand an author’s meaning or context it is that author’s responsibility to try and communicate more effectively. This, of course, assumes a level of reasonability.
If the conversation went in that manner, there should be no problem.
When the response to Fan is: “You’re wrong. What stats are you using to come to this prediction? If you have no stats backing you up, then you bogus.”
This is where the problems start. Why can’t stat guy let fan say what he says without attacks? It works both ways.
No disagreement there. I concur.
I’m certainly no fan of the “you must provide evidence for everything you say” attitude. But I don’t see that happening here.
My fantasy conclusion to the exchange is:
Fan: Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong.
Stat guy: No, you’re wrong.
Fan: Cool. Pass me a beer.
Stat guy: Here you go.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
by iglew on Jan 18, 2011 2:51 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
YES!!!!
Even though I can only make a 6-7 games a year, I would love to raise a beer, or 12, with you guys.
So if Tutu's good luck
And he goes to 6-7 games that the A’s were going to lose, but because he’s good luck they win, and then like they totally win the division, that would be so cool! Oh I’m hella down for a beer!
iglew, thanks for the inspiration for my sig.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
just don't forget
“stat guys” are Fans too.
Empires may crumble, FIP statistics may lose their meaning, but only a Keetsa mattress puts years back on your life while you're sleeping.
by emperor nobody on Jan 18, 2011 3:57 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
But, don't we ALL like beer?
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
I actually hate beer
Vile substance. Cannot fathom why anyone who was not desperate for anything intoxicating would ever consume it.
This is not based on some general hatred of alcohol, BTW (I’m fine with vodka or wine).
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Well, beer and wine BOTH go with pizza.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
I don't think I've ever had pizza with wine.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 18, 2011 5:51 PM PST up reply actions
I have beer and the Mrs likes wine.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
You're obviously not married yet.
Beer is the nectar of the gods.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
Aw, MAN!
Now we can’t even enjoy a beer with discussions?
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
Oops, Freudian slip. " ...withOUT discussions"
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
Beer is not a vile substance
but if you don’t like it, that’s fine. But implying that someone who does enjoy it is desperate for something intoxicating is really not a very useful thing to say, Paul.
And I love vodka, and especially love wine…..but that doesn’t mean that if other folks don’t enjoy wine or vodka, that they are somehow desperate or lacking some integral part of having "taste’ if I didn’t happen to enjoy those particular spirits….
I really don’t understand the point you’re attempting to make.
"You're early, but hang around; we'll have a fight for you sooner or later."
-John "Blue Moon" Odom
I, for one, didn't take PT's remark this way.
My wife doesn’t like beer either. My alcoholic preference is Crown Royal, but that gets mighty expensive. PT can correct me, but I believe he was indicating that he would rather I buy him a glass of wine, instead of a beer. I took this more as an acceptance of my olive branch.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
I know other people that don't like beer either, Tutu
but I wouldn’t tell them there drink of choice was vile, either. WTF do I know anyway, right? Just saying…
And, yes, i absolutely love beer with a passion…! mikev.! Where art thou?
"You're early, but hang around; we'll have a fight for you sooner or later."
-John "Blue Moon" Odom
I really hope this post is not serious, because mine wasn't...
I’m not sabermetrically analyzing the relative merits of beer and wine…
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Just take a sip and go
“VORRRRRRRRRRRP!!!!!”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I was gonna defend you on this one
But you did a fine job all by yourself.
Good [insert deity or whatever], can’t anyone parse humor here?
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 9:06 PM PST up reply actions
I enjoy the taste of wine as well, PT.
My problem is that wine gives me horrible heartburn.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
For me, it's beer, and incessant trips to the bathroom
When I’d rather be comatose.
Candy is dandy but [real] likker is quicker
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 9:08 PM PST up reply actions
This is because we don't actually buy beer.
we just rent it.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
We may just rent the beer, but the heartburn we buy
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 9:16 PM PST up reply actions
...and buy, and buy, and....
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
I too hate beer.
Let’s re-align AN so instead of “fan-boy” vs “stat-guy” it’s beer lovers against beer haters.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
And there I was, just trying to smooth things over!
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
Of course Stat guys are fans, they are just wrong.
I’m more than wiiling to change the names if someone can help with suggestions.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
It amazes me how often many on this site ignore how frequently stat guys are right.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
I hope you know I said that in jest.
I am very much impressed with the effort and thought involved with the analysis put forth on this site. As a matter of fact, I am very thankful for the explanations extended to me by danmerqury, Rebuilding, and others.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
I'm gonna pretend to be a stat guy for a second....
Do you have any proof of this?
Please site examples.
No, but I AM extending a beer offer to my Stat guy co-fans.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
The CarGon trade comes to mind.
Stat guys were generally against it, non stat guys were generally more optimistic about it.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Yet.....
If someone says that Holliday didn’t work out in Oakland, they’ll give you an epic lesson on how incredible his 3.5 months actually were.
Holliday being good and that trade being bad are not mutually exclusive.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
I think every Holliday is good, as long as there is enough beer involved.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
Isn't His Performance.....
The dividend paid by such a transaction?
Depends
If you’re iglew, the fact that he contributed to wins in a bad season also matters a lot.
If you’re PT, the fact that he worsened the A’s draft position in a non-competing year matters a lot the other way.
If you’re in between, it still matters in one direction or the other.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I do like the wins in a losing season
but the no-smile and pointy-head pissed me off.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
A good reason to be against the use of forceps.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
Heh
I think it’s fair to say you’re the edge of the spectrum I was trying to build generally.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I have to admit that, if you are replying to me, I missing this.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
Nope, to iglew
The up button is key all the way over here.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Would you trade Cahill, Anderson, Gio, Braden, Suzuki, Barton, Pennington, Kouz, Dejesus, Crisp, Sweeney, and Willingham for Pujols?
You shouldn’t, because we’d have no team but one superstar. Even though he’d be really good, we’d be awful and only have him for one year.
There are limits to what you would pay for a really good player. One player doesn’t make a team.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
I'm guessing....
I probably shouldn’t answer yes to this?
All I'm getting at is that that trade was bad.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
I agree
and I’m not saying you’re wrong, but I really don’t know anyone other than the most casual of fans who said “Yay Supastah!” that thought it was a good deal. It had 1/2 year rental written all over it from the very beginning.
I'll admit it; I liked the trade at the time.
I thought CarGon was a little raw and I didn’t think he’d pan out as well as he did. Furthermore, I thought the A’s had a chance to contend and the decision to go all in wasn’t awful. Even if it was a rental, I thought we’d be able to flip him for a great prospect at the deadline (which we did, Brett Wallace.) The fact that Brett Wallace was flipped for Taylor who had a huge dropoff makes the trade worse in hindsight, but I don’t think the trade was completely indefensible.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 18, 2011 4:54 PM PST up reply actions
Wallace had a huge dropoff too, FWIW
Nothing wrong with that move.
I think the A’s did as well as they could in trying to patch the leak created by the first Holliday trade, but the leak was largely irreparable.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Well (and I'm gonna sound like a dick here)
but were you around the site at the time? I thought a lot of people were for it (including, yes, me!), but the PT’s, DFA’s of the world were absurdly against it.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Sorry, wasn't referring to you.
Stupid formatting!
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Well
Those are two different things.
1. The trade was an overpay, unless you really value win-now attempts and believe the A’s became pretty real favorites.
2. Holliday started slow
3. Holliday ended up performing quite well.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Hard for me to debate this topic.
As, despite being a staunch “stats shcmats” guy, I wasn’t a fan of the trade from the get go. Was never a big Street fan, but saw heaps of potential in Gonzales and the time simply wasn’t right for a “win now” stab. Holliday, Giambi, Garciaparra, could have done without them all as I felt it only held back the rebuild.
I didn't like trading Gonzalez at the time,
because even though a lot of stats (e.g. walk rate) predicted trouble, I believed he was “5-tool star” in the making.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I don't think that is supported by facts
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 18, 2011 6:48 PM PST up reply actions
Can you quantify this?
Just kidding. I do agree that they are much more often correct than not.
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 18, 2011 4:52 PM PST up reply actions
A number with a known error bar is absolutely different than a guess.
by danmerqury on Jan 18, 2011 9:39 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
You're right, it's an educated guess.
It’s as much of a guess as it is a fact, but by many, it’s treated as absolute divine mandate.
Who does that? Tell me please.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
But only in degrees.
A guess from an amateur such as myself, would be lees accurate than a guess from a professional scout. However, the professional scout is given less credence here, as if he is an amateur.
I completely agree
problem is i never see stats with errors associated with them. which is why most are just a pseudoscience at best.
"If people don't know who he is, they'd better turn on the television and check him out."
... almost all reputable stats have known error bars
If you want to know what they are, ask. It is ridiculous to demand that everyone insert pages of disclaimers every time they cite a statistic. There’s a body of knowledge here and people who cite baseball stats are usually going to assume some degree of familiarity with it.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I have never seen any...
fangraphs, BP, tango… i have never seen any error involved. I actually disagree with you, you SHOULD, for the most part, add the uncertainty, otherwise your “stats” will be meaningless. This is just a view coming from a chemistry/physics background.
"If people don't know who he is, they'd better turn on the television and check him out."
Which stats are you looking at?
Sure, some of them have no error. Batting Average, OBP, Slugging are completely factual; they tell exactly what occured. Projections always have margins of error attached to them though.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 19, 2011 9:38 AM PST up reply actions
Fangraphs, etc
do indeed discuss methodology if you dig for it. But it’s not right there handy. They know full well that when they put out the numbers a bunch of yahoos are going to point to the site to say, “Ha ha, this guy is a 3.5 and that guy is only 2.9, so therefore I’m right.”
They could surely take greater care to prevent misuse of their numbers but they don’t, because they know what their main audience is.
This is hardly limited to baseball statistics. You see the same thing with political polling, product surveys, etc, etc.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
This.
The data workup/error bars DO exist. But for all of their greatness, Fangraphs doesn’t exactly put it in an accessible place.
I would also add that I don't think
their error bars really capture all of the room for error. The bars just represent the mathematical uncertainty, not the various assumptions implicit in what they choose to measure.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
to be fair their entire glossary section is shit
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 3:49 PM PST up reply actions
I second that emotion
When someone provides me a link to the actual methodology, there it is and it’s complete, but you can’t get there from the glossary which is just… wrong
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 23, 2011 9:14 AM PST up reply actions
care to prove i link
i’d love to see it
"If people don't know who he is, they'd better turn on the television and check him out."
bullshit.
There is not ONE person worth their salt that will tell you projections are the be all end all.
This notion is absolute crap.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
by mikev on Jan 18, 2011 9:30 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
bullshit+
There is a post in this very thread titled “The A’s are 6-7 games worse than the Rangers”.
Not “Our best guess based on statistical analysis is the A’s may win 6-7 fewer games than the Rangers”.
A blanket statement, issued as fact.
There in lies the problem with how the majority of stats are presented here. Because it’s basis is in numbers it’s presented, treated and often accepted as fact.
There are at least 5-6 posters I’ve come across that ABSOLUTELY treat projections as the end all be all.
by AsFan72 on Jan 18, 2011 9:40 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Name them please.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Just the very wording suggests that it's an estimate
“6-7 games worse” implies a projection system, and all projection systems can be outperformed, underperformed, etc.
Again, nobody in the history of educated discussion as ever considered projections to be absolute irrefutable fact, and impossible to change by any means.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 18, 2011 9:48 AM PST up reply actions
So ridiculous
Every time anyone takes any kind of shortcut (the 6-7 games thing is obviously referencing the figure I gave, which is hedged around with exactly the kind of disclaimers you purport to prefer), they get attacked for making “blanket statements” and “claiming projections are fact.” Never mind that, you know, WC was summarizing a post in order to criticize the responses to it— no, clearly it was some sinister plot to pass off a projection as fact!
It’s easy enough to see what’s going on here— you’re throwing rocks at the real discussion hoping to break it up because you can’t or won’t put the effort in to follow it. Your complaint is bad faith nonsense.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Same here on all accounts
I do try to root my optimism in some reasonable reality so that I can understand my heartbreak and not feel cheated, but I certainly will always hope for more than I expect when I’m a fan of something. And by fan of something I mean something that I have zero control over. [Like the weather; I will hope for a drizzling gray cool morning the day after it was 100F.]
"Juuuuust a bit outside" - Harry Doyle
by ArunisArun on Jan 18, 2011 12:57 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Expectations
I think expectations play a much bigger role in optimism/pessimism etc. I look at the team think what I think theyre capable of doing and hope they reach/exceed that goal. But thinking we have a problem here or there is hardly pessimistic.
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan at tvprookiecardretirementplan.wordpress.com !
This isn't Vegas
And most of us don’t have much at stake when it comes to baseball. We like to hope our team will win and tend to be optimistic in our projections by nature. We understand that a lot has to break right for a small market team to actually win anything- that a team like the A’s can not compete with the likes of the Angles if it came down to simple economics. And while we value statistical analysis, we also tend to be optimistic in its application. That’s not to say that anyone expected Cahill to post a 2.97 ERA, or for Barton to be a 4.9 WAR guy, but we wouldn’t completely write it off as lunacy either.
Most of us don’t see baseball as black and white. Statements like “Ryan Garko is better than Aubry Huff,” something I remember PT saying before last year, mean less to us. And although you can argue the point until the cows come home (and that’s not a “trade for Blanton” request) the fact remains that anything can happen.
For me, it's not so much that I don't have anything at stake,
it’s that it makes no difference to what I’m going to do. If I think the A’s are a sucky team that will probably finish 72-90, then I’m going to root for the A’s to win as many games as possible. If I think the A’s are an awesome team that will probably finish 90-72, then I’m going to root for the A’s to win as many games as possible.
There’s really no reason why I need to know exactly how good they project to be, because I’m not going to be basing any decisions on it anyway. It’s not like I’m the one deciding whether to spend $80 million on Adrian Beltre.
I’m a curious person by nature, so I have a mild interest in the various projection discussions, but ultimately, it really doesn’t matter to me how good the A’s project to be. I’m going to root for them the same regardless.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I don't actually think there are many, if any, pessimist on AN
The folks that have the most depressing comments generally have legitimate concerns, and likely are speaking in terms of what seems to have the greatest probability of actually occuring.
"Juuuuust a bit outside" - Harry Doyle
by ArunisArun on Jan 18, 2011 10:54 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Really?
The prospects for this franchise winning a title in the near future are as poor as they’ve ever been within my memory
I mean, there are concerns and then there’s overt pessimism. Saying that this team is as bad as any in the past 20 years? Well, judge for yourself I guess.
Y'know, you're misreading that statement.
It doesn’t actually say the A’s are a bad team.
What it says is that they have as poor a prospect of winning a title in the near future as at any time in the last 20 years.
Paul has never expressed the view that the A’s are a bad team. PT, and others, have been frightened of the really soul-destroying prospect that the A’s have entered the dread “mediocre hell”: too good to get the best prospects, not good enough to compete, not rich enough to buy their way out of trouble.
I think the “good news” here is the A’s have a lot of cost-controlled and extended guys they can use to trade their way out of trouble (and into a new bunch of prospects) if this window is not open, as PT believes it is not, I’m sure after 1-2 years Billy won’t hesitate to blow it up…
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 4:16 PM PST up reply actions
When I read this, what I see is
frightened of … too good
Our souls are destroyed by the dreaded possibility that we aren’t sucky enough.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Some bad writing there, you are correct
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 23, 2011 9:16 AM PST up reply actions
Well, of course not.
Your view of things agrees with his view of things.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 17, 2011 6:58 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
That's true, it is.
That’s probably why I had forgotten about how that first sentence came off.
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 17, 2011 7:27 PM PST up reply actions
I agree more with your assessment of the situation,
Lenscrafters, than with Nico’s. Still, I don’t think Nico’s post is condescending at all. He’s just offering an alternative view and backing it up with some reasons.
The only condescending thing I saw in this thread was where you said “sigh”, which came across as snarky to me, though perhaps you didn’t mean it that way.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I didn't say, "sigh".
That was nevermoor, and I took it to mean a sigh of resignation to the fact that Nico’s post elicits tired, old, controversial arguments and would almost surely incite the same old, recent shitstorms. I don’t think it’s snarky, but of course, I agree with nevermoor more often than not, so perhaps my worldview is clouding my judgment.
As to whether or not Nico’s first sentence is condescending or not, I recommend you read it again:
Honestly, I think those who feel down on the A’s short-term chances to contend are overthinking it, putting too much stock in WAR and projections, but too little in a simpler — yet more real — view.
Now read this sentence, and for good measure, read it as if, oh I don’t know, PaulThomas is the one saying it:
Honestly, I think those who feeldownup on the A’s short-term chances to contend areoverthinking itnot thinking at all, putting too much stock inWAR and projectionssimplistic, not analytical, unsubstantiated arguments, but too little in asimpler — yet more real — view.scientific, stats-centric — in other words, real — way of thinking.
I think the comparison is apt. If neither sentences bother you, then I tip my hat to you because clearly you are above the rest of us and our pettiness. But I’m inclined to think that the second sentence will ignite a flame war with quite a few people — many of whom probably don’t think there’s anything wrong with Nico’s sentence.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 17, 2011 9:40 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
You know that altered sentence you just posted
Because of my world view on this topic, it’s like I read far more condescension coming from the pessimists side of the divide. Honestly, that’s how I read it and how I feel on the matter. And because of this, it’s like I’m thinking, “Hey, you’re doing it to a much greater degree. Why can’t you handle it if that’s the way you want to dish?”
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 17, 2011 9:48 PM PST up reply actions
Oops, my bad.
Apologies to both your and Nevermoor for misattributing the “sigh”.
I do indeed find both of your sentences inoffensive. I don’t doubt your prediction that the second one would also stir up a shit-storm, but it would be a stupid shit-storm.
Of course, this isn’t even theoretical. Over on the Fuentes thread, Paul Thomas — who is generally considered to be on the “opposite” side from Nico — is being similarly attacked for condescension. I think it’s just as stupid whichever side is doing it.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
My bad.
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 17, 2011 7:27 PM PST up reply actions
No worries
I’m impressed by your ability to take a second look, and not a huge deal in the first place. Lenscrafters, above, has it exactly right as a sigh of resignation, nothing more. I think this one ended pretty darn well, in no small part thanks to you.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
so are you going to be rooting for these things to happend
so you can be right?
The A's are a fairly quiet team, and then there's Ben Sheets. Sheets, as a kid, must have been thrown out of every library in Baton Rouge. ~ Scott Ostler
I'm optimistic, but worried we might not have a shortstop, enough backup outfielders, and our pitching will regress.
But fuck it, I’m pumped.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
I think we'll be fine
Penny will come back early enough that it will be okay to have Tolleson/Sogard cover for him
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
hell hath no fury like a Cowboys fan scorned. -Leopold Bloom
You're worried we might not have enough backup OFers?
We have Sweeney, then Conor Jackson, just on the big league roster. SS will be a real issue, but only for a couple weeks.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
It looks like OF and 1B will be fine
The rest of the infield worries me. A healthy Rosales would go a long way though- fingers crossed.
Our starting CF is injury prone, our backup CF is injury prone, and Conor Jackson sucks.
So, yes.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
I'm also going on the basic A's premise that "we need lots of backups".
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Outfield is easier to backup than infield
After being denounced for thinking we needed infield depth and then having Pennington and Rosie not be ready for the start of spring training perhaps. I too am with you in the “need lots of backups” world! I think it is a necessity for competitive teams looking to win divisions. That being said, I think the outfield is a bit easier to manage because both Rosales (when he is healthy) and Tolleson have outfield experience. It is a lot easier to shove someone into left field than to find someone who can play shortstop.
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan at tvprookiecardretirementplan.wordpress.com !
I: agree with parts,
but sticking Rosales/Tolleson in the OF as backups would be disastrous; their bats are a huge dropoff from what we’re putting out there now.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Can't DDJ play CF?
Then fish out some MiL crap and stick it in the corner. We did that on a regular basis with the matts last year…
Well that's....really really bad.
But we might be stuck with it at points.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Pennington stated in a recent interview...
…that his L shoulder only bothers him when batting R handed. I don’t see why he couldn’t start the season just batting from the L side until his L shoulder feels strong enough to lead the swing from the R side. It’s interesting to me. Would Geren go so far as to prevent him from batting both ways? I would frankly be more concerned about using his fielding as a gauge for returning to play, especially on dives up the middle or in the hole.
"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King
I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest that having a guy attempt to learn how to hit from the left side against lefthanders,
at the major league level, having not done so at least in his professional career and possibly in his entire life, is probably not a wise experiment to inflict on his team.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
It's baseball, PT
There is no reason why seeing pitches from the same side in spring training is a big deal. If he has questions, he can ask his first baseman for advice, looking at how well he hits lefties.
I watched a game in the 70s as a kid in Oakland where, a batter against our A’s turned around during an at bat and “went against the odds”. Just don’t get stuck on the limitations of these guys.
Nevertheless, I agree it’s highly unlikely and Geren would probably pinch hit during the season. Spring training is fair play. We will never know until Geren and Penny have that discussion if it ever comes to that.
"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King
Do you have any examples of people who just decided to become switch hitters at the MLB level, having never done it in the past, and it proving feasible?
Because I’m skeptical that ambidexterity could be taught so quickly.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 17, 2011 11:38 PM PST up reply actions
Being a switch hitter isn't entirely about ambidexterity.
It’s not like throwing where throwing with one’s dextrous hand is profoundly more natural than throwing with the other. With hitting both arms are heavily involved, albeit in different and unequal ways.
That’s why there are plenty of right-handed guys who choose to learn to hit left-handed, but no right-handed guys who learn to pitch left-handed.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Zito is ambidextrous to begin with.
That is, not right-handed. It does make sense that an ambidextrous person would learn to pitch left-handed.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Really? Didn't know that
I’d only heard that he does everything else that requires dexterity like writing and playing the guitar right handed
Well, now I'm not sure, but
But he refers to himself as ambidextrous here.
If you are ambidextrous enough to choose, there are solid practical reasons to choose right hand for guitar and writing but choose left hand for pitching.
It’s also worth noting that those who study how the brain works with regard to this sort of thing perceive the dichotomy as right-handed vs not-right-handed, rather than right-handed vs left-handed. That is, the brain patterns of ambidextrous people and left-handed people are similar to each other but different from right-handed people. Thus left-handed and ambidextrous tend to go together, and not just due to cultural pressure.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Well he certainly has the stereotypical persona of a left hander
I’ve no knowledge on the subject but it would be safe to assume that even ambidextrous people have a preferred side, just that they are more adept with the other side than normal right or left handed people.
He's a switch hitter
What’s the big deal about taking a few extra at bats from the L side while his shoulder heals? We are only talking about spring training. There’s nothing that says he has to. I never implied he had to learn something new.
"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King
Oh, so he is a switch hitter.
Forgive me, I thought he was only right handed.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 18, 2011 9:32 AM PST up reply actions
Because it would be pointless and he would probably suck trying to hit lefties as a LHB.
Since he’s never done it before.
It’s a much better option to just have Sogard or Tolleson play until he’s fully healthy.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
The probability is low, I agree
But you never know with some players and maybe he approaches the subject with Geren, overall I doubt it would happen.
"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King
It's more likely that he reinjures himself than that he is noticeably better, as a left-handed hitter,
than Sogard or Tolleson would be.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
My advice was going to be to give Pennington regular days off early in the season,
make those days off be against LHPs, and give Rosales those games. Well, so much for that.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
He may have said that but he hasn't done anything in the field yet
I had a similar surgery (albeit a bit more extensive) 2 weeks after him and know exactly what he’s talking about. He just got cleared to start taking dry swings which is a good sign but the field will be more testing. The follow through on a RH swing probably won’t take too long to stretch out but diving for a ball in the hole could be sketchy for a while.
because playing baseball with a shoulder that's not ready is just not a good idea
even if I thought he would hit LHP batting lefty.
let the man heal all the way, then bring him back.
Is it spring yet?
by eastcoasta'sfan on Jan 18, 2011 9:52 AM PST up reply actions
Isn't there two Ts in butt?
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 17, 2011 6:42 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
HA
Yeah I keep the stickers on my A's hat and don't bend the bill. So what, big whoop, wanna fight about it?
by MudkipzGetHYPHY on Jan 17, 2011 8:17 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
already have spring training tickets!
It’s not easy filling the shoes of fan favorite Bobby Crosby, but Cliff Pennington says he’s up to the challenge.
Im very close to getting tickets, can't decide on a date yet.
Love your sig line. Is that a Jane Lee quote?
Can't remember exactly where I heard it, but yeah it was something like that.
And I live 4 miles from the Pads/M’s park, so I’m catching the A’s when they come up there. It’d be nice to catch a regular season A’s game that easy, though…
It’s not easy filling the shoes of fan favorite Bobby Crosby, but Cliff Pennington says he’s up to the challenge.
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 18, 2011 9:13 AM PST up reply actions
Recommended with enthusiasm!
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
88 wins.
"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me
http://marcel-oehler.marcellosendos.ch/comics/ch/1986/05/19860506.gif
That seems reasonable
Just as 87-88 is reasonable for Texas. Even last year, with so much rolling right they won only 90.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
How much "rolled right" for Texas last year?
Derek Holland didn’t improve much, Elvis Andrus hit like the second coming of Neifi Perez, Kinsler spent his usual month on the disabled list, and the first base position was almost unimaginably bad given the number of solid prospects they had at the spot. Oh, and Bengie Molina was an actual upgrade at catcher.
I don’t really get why people think Texas was lucky last year. They weren’t. They had a good team which had some ups and downs. Nothing remotely out of the ordinary.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I don't think they were super lucky
Lewis, Wilson, and Hamilton were better even than most could have predicted but on the flip side they used the DL a lot. Mostly, they played .500 ball against the league and then beat up on the NL for two weeks. I think they ended up right around how good they were: An 88-90 win team that hit the high end thanks to the huge win streak. This year? Maybe an 86-88 win team.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Is there any evidence-- like, at all-- that having a winning streak in a team's season has anything to do with how good the team is
I’m unaware of any. As far as I can tell, it’s irrelevant.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I mean they were playing a series of weaker teams in that stretch
And not even the same schedule everyone else played, so it didn’t just “even out in the end.”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Strength of schedule may have had a minor impact on the margin by which they won the division,
but I cannot bridge the gap from that to “the fact that they happened to win a lot of games against weak teams means they were worse than they seemed.” At best, it means that maybe they were really a true 89-win team rather than 90. A slightly easier ride in 1/10 of a season’s schedule just doesn’t make that much of a difference.
And who cares exactly which games on their schedule they won? This isn’t the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. We’re not trying to seed teams based on “resume wins” and record against the RPI top 50.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Of course it can make a difference
Not 9 games difference, but strength of schedule can easily be responsible for a few games. The thing is that we shouldn’t blame it for last year’s record or shouldn’t start to try and shave off the win gap to make us look like we have a better shot.
Texas had some above average performances (Hamilton, starting rotation, etc) and some below average ones (Andrus, catchers, etc.)
The same goes for the A’s. We can’t add up increases and decreases in WAR (especially fractions), come up with some random win totals and say “Jeez Texas still has us by 2 wins or so, they’ve won the division.” The best we can do is look at our improvements/losses and Texas’ improvement/losses and say “Well I think we’ve improved quite a bit, while Texas has stayed the same or just a bit better. We should have a shot and hope for health and good performances.”
It’s the same reason why it’s stupid to pay attention to the standings in April: We can’t know the outcome of this season until a good part of it has played out.
Once again, looking at "improvements and losses" is the wrong way to go about this
You need to start from scratch. All the serious projectors (PECOTA, Xeifrank’s system, etc.) approach it that way. The alternative compounds measurement errors from the previous season.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
You're saying exactly what I'm saying --
I’m saying Texas was probably in fact an 88-90 win team that won 90.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I thought you were saying they were 86-88
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
This coming season, not last season.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
You think they got worse?
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
You think they got better? They didn't do much except Beltre, they had several players who had career years, they're subject to the same laws of regression as the A's
Texas paid at least $80M/5 years as much to deny the A’s and Angles access to Beltre as to improve themselves. Clearly the team most hurt by not getting Beltre is neither the A’s nor the Rangers, since both had viable 3B starters before bidding for Beltre. Only the angles would have been improved by Beltre’s full WAR value or more… He improves their defense by a couple of wins all by himself, so yes, that’s improved. Does that cover all the regression they’re due? Young vs. Guerrero (remember, we’re talking projections here, not how things worked out) is not an improvement.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 4:28 PM PST up reply actions
I don't know that they got much better
But I can’t think of anything that happened or might happen that will cause them to get worse.
By adding Beltre, they get upgrades at 3rd and 1st, and like Paul pointed out above, Andrus was pretty awful, and Kinsler was hurt. Hamilton missed a month, too. Most people believe Holland will improve. Catcher and centerfield were both pretty bad for them last year.
Now I doubt Guerrero will be nearly as good as he was, and I could definitely see regression in the rotation. But I think, if anything, right now they’re the same as 2010. I could be wrong, though, which is why I asked Nico why he thinks they got worse, or will be worse.
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
Yes, I think they'll be slightly worse,
with my best guess as to why starting with CJ Wilson falling from the mountain top and leaving the rotation too thin for comfort.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
You don't think they can make that up, though?
With Holland or Feliz in the rotation, or with improvement offensively?
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
Basically I think their rotation is 3 deep:
Lewis, Wilson, Holland. Holland may or may not be fully ready and fully healthy in 2011, but if I’m guessing I’ll guess he is.
But if/when one of Lewis/Wilson really stumbles, they’re 2 deep. And a bunch of starts from Hunter, Webb, and an ineffective pitcher or a replacement pitcher, will take its toll.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Yet I still think they're a good team
86-88 win teams are good.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
You can apply the same issues to the A's staff.
I’m not sure why you think Wilson/Lewis are more in danger of regressing or “stumbling” than certain A’s starters.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 18, 2011 5:19 PM PST up reply actions
I don't think the A's are risk free
What’s different about Wilson than Cahill, Gio, and other regression candidates around the league, is that Wilson went from pitching 73.2 IP in relief for 6 months to starting for 7 months and throwing 228.1 IP.
It’s not about the Verducci effect, which doesn’t even apply to pitchers his age. It’s about how his arm will respond, even healthy — I could see him just not having the life on his pitches over a long 2011 season.
He also led the league in BBs, so if his BABIP comes up too far he won’t be all that great even if he feels terrific.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'd be interested, by the way, in seeing analysis
over the last, say, 20 years on what effect, if any, it has on World Series starters who wind up pitching for an extra month after the long season. Do they tend to do any worse the following season? Get hurt with any more frequency? I’ve always wondered about that.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Fair points.
Certainly Wilson’s substantial increase in workload has a chance of adversely affecting his health or performance next year.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 18, 2011 5:43 PM PST up reply actions
Of course not
But that they killed the NL for a few weeks but were otherwise .500 is a fact. Does it mean they are closer to a .500 team or the team that kicked some NL ass? Don’t know.
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 17, 2011 11:52 PM PST up reply actions
I agree with Nico
Texas wasn’t super lucky. But they also weren’t super good. Let’s not make them into some sort of juggernaut here. I think their offense is very strong and legit, especially in that postage stamp of a baseball field. But I am still not sold on their pitching. They’re good but we can keep up.
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan at tvprookiecardretirementplan.wordpress.com !
Precisely.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
They certainly aren't any better than last year
I expect itching regression and no more Cliff Lee. They will have better defense from Beltre but his offense isn’t that different from what Vlad gave them. Maybe they get more production from 1B and C, but that is far from a foregone conclusion.
If they were an 88-90 win team last year, I think they will be no better this year, and quite possibly worse. That puts them well within striking distance of our 85-87 win team.
.
Athletics Nation: Too Much Information
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 18, 2011 9:49 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Lee's impact on the Rangers is overrated
Lee was good for Texas no doubt, but last year he far from carried them. He pitched in 15 games for them, thats it. They were 6-9 in those games. So realistically, the Rangers did what they did in spite of having Lee not because of it. So, I think the “Rangers will be worse because of no Lee” argument only represents opportunity cost lost not actually them losing anything.
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
92 wins!
Optimistic beyond words! All we needed last year was a little more offense (check) bullpen depth (check) and outfield depth. Oh, depth in general. Great offseason, can’t wait for Spring Training!
"I'm not bad, I'm just drawn that way." -Jessica Rabbit
by A'sfansince1970 on Jan 17, 2011 7:42 PM PST via mobile reply actions
I'm getting super pumped for the season
As much as I appreciate the stats and projections, xFIP, UZR, etc., the game is still not played on paper and the one thing I have always loved about the A’s are the intangibles.
More than any other team I’ve seen the A’s bring these intangibles, whether it be Gio maturing and learning how to stay in control both physically and emotionally, or wether it be Daric Barton learning to jump in feet first.
The work ethic these guys have cannot be shown on fangraphs, and I’m sure they are all just as excited as we are and are working as hard as ever to go as far as we all hope they do.
Work as if everything depends on you and Pray knowing that everything depends on God. - Michael Taylor
This promotes numerous fallacies
First off, starting a projection by attempting to measure changes from the prior year’s performance compounds whatever oddities were contained in that performance. Without question, the correct way to do this stuff is to start from scratch and figure out what production the team is likely to get from each position.
Second, the statements about the defense are little more than semantic game-playing. A +30 run defense (what I have the A’s projected at on a player-by-player analysis) and a +45 run defense (what they posted last year) are both describable as “fielding very well”. “Plays are going to get made” by both of them. This is garbling a difference of a win and a half with verbal handwaving and extremely blunt rounding-off.
As for the rotation, a more objective observer just described it thus:
So we’ve got one excellent starting pitcher, one a tick better than average…and two guys who could be anything from fringe Cy Young candidates to slight liabilities depending on where their careers go from here (Gonzalez is 25, Cahill is 22).
Projecting these four pitchers to continue their progress is an iffy proposition. The idea that position players peak in their mid-to-late 20s is a commonly-accepted concept in baseball circles. But pitchers are more unpredictable, with injuries and sudden, dramatic changes in performance more common. You can’t project a neat bell curve for hitters topping out at age 27; you can’t even begin to try for pitchers.
The only parts of the team that can be fairly projected to improve are the hitting and the bullpen (which had a lot of pitchers post career-worst numbers or miss the season last year). The defense is going to be worse for the simple reason that almost every defense that is as good as the 2010 A’s defense was is going to be worse the next season. Projecting the pitching to post similar run-prevention numbers as last season, when it— as a staff, so let’s not pretend that this is some unique skill of particular pitchers— posted the highest ERA-FIP differential in the majors is foolhardy.
Where it all comes out is somewhat fuzzy, but middling assumptions for Oakland and Texas seem to have the A’s 6 or 7 games worse. That is very bad— it’s essentially a full standard deviation’s worth of luck. When you take that and then consider the fact that there are two other teams in the division with nonzero chances to win the division (people are sleeping on the Angels, which is odd since they have at least three of the top ten players in the division), the A’s probably aren’t better than one in six or one in seven to reach the postseason this year. That’s AFTER making four win-now moves ranging from “okay” to “inept” in the amount the team spent for them.
I can’t get excited about this. Sorry. The prospects for this franchise winning a title in the near future are as poor as they’ve ever been within my memory, which extends back to basically 1989. I’m not going to pretend to be happy about this situation, regardless of how much I get mocked for it.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
by PaulThomas on Jan 17, 2011 7:53 PM PST reply actions 10 recs
No need to mock
Your self-indulgent misery is so stultifying that we’ll just ignore you
by itsgemme on Jan 17, 2011 7:57 PM PST up reply actions 16 recs
That a response like this gets 4 recs is absolute crap.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
by mikev on Jan 17, 2011 8:50 PM PST up reply actions 4 recs
Seriously.
If you want to rec a counterpoint to PT, rec richwol’s down there. Not this one.
by danmerqury on Jan 17, 2011 8:53 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Are you kidding me? 15 recs?
PaulThomas comes in and devotes a serious amount of time/thought to counter-arguing a post, all out of honest feelings about the team, and a counter response telling him basically to shove it gets 15 recs? I don’t care if you agree with PT’s reasoning or not, but this gets 15 recs? It should get 15 flags. This is a joke.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 18, 2011 9:36 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed. It's simply people being PT haters, and it's a fucking joke.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
this
when i first saw the post i almost flagged it as a CGV and now its got 15 recs.
I did flag it. All 15 people who recced that should be ashamed.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
AN: Be Civil, except to PT
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Jan 18, 2011 10:39 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
It's like the opposite of the Lookout Landing CGs!
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
There's 8 flags to go with the 15 recs
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Recs by a touchdown
what quarter is it?
Bob Geren was born in a suburban apartment complex he built with his own two hands.
by QueenOfCansAndJars on Jan 18, 2011 12:14 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
+1
"You know, a long time ago being crazy meant something. Nowadays everybody's crazy."
-Charles Manson
by kaweahkaweah on Jan 18, 2011 12:58 PM PST up reply actions
He shouldn't go out of his way to make it so easy to hate him.
It’s basically a sport unto itself around here.
He doesn't do this.
He disagrees with people, states his opinions, and does so in an honest way.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 18, 2011 4:33 PM PST up reply actions
It got several flags, too.
(Even before you posted this.)
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Its also really fucking cowardly. If you are going to stab someone do it to their face
PT spends far more time and puts far more thought into his posts than the vast majority of posters here, it is utterly disgusting that people wouldn’t even say it to his face but would rec something like that in the most chicken shit cowardly way that Ive seen on here.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 18, 2011 4:29 PM PST up reply actions
Great. Now I have to drive all the way over to his house?
{knock knock knock knock}
“Hey — you suck!”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
This is a very classless comment
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 18, 2011 6:50 PM PST up reply actions
You really don't get humor sometimes.
Try not taking things so seriously.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
You really don't get when someone is serious and your humor is insulting.
Try pretending to actually give what they have to say some credence
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 18, 2011 7:11 PM PST up reply actions
It doesn't give any less credence to the serious point
to reply to “say it to his face” with the image of driving over to someone’s house to reply to an internet comment.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
yes it does. its dismisive.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 18, 2011 7:18 PM PST up reply actions
I don't agree, but whatevs.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Now I'm just laughing....this is ridiculous!
Jeebus………
"You're early, but hang around; we'll have a fight for you sooner or later."
-John "Blue Moon" Odom
mrod, can you see why I just want to have a beer with everyone just to lighten things up a bit?
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
Craft beer, please, out of the bottle
The darker the better. Specialty Winter Ales, Porters and/or Stouts. [/Raise the bottle; can I get a clink?]
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 18, 2011 7:43 PM PST up reply actions
Clank clank!
Now that I’ve toasted, what the hell is Craft beer? My mind went straight to cheezwiz
As I understand it...
…a craft beer is one that is not mass produced [thinking Coors, Miller, Bud, many of the very popular imports from Mexico , Canada, or Europe that are staples on the beer shelves]. I’m not sure where that cutoff is to be considered mass produced, though, but seasonal beers from big breweries can also be considered ‘craft’ beers and brews from small or obsure breweries would seem to fit the label.
That and the beer bottles recognize the snoberry involved with this and deliberately clink rather than clank.
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 19, 2011 2:41 AM PST up reply actions
My foty be clankin dog
But I really was hoping for Craft macaroni and beer. Mmm, creamy!
Oh, I'm all for it man..
I’m getting a kick out of all of this stuff. Drink up bitches!
"You're early, but hang around; we'll have a fight for you sooner or later."
-John "Blue Moon" Odom
I don't think so.
It was a successful attempt at humor from my POV. You should know by now that Nico often tries to diffuse tense moments by injecting humor. It’s clear to me that’s what he’s attempted here.
And what’s the alternative to trying to diffuse through humor in this instance? There’s a pretty mean-spirited comment floating up there in reply to [and directed at] PT. It’s been properly called out by friends of PT and perhaps others that wanted to express the mean-spirited nature of this comment. But on the other hand it has also garnered at least 15 recommendations [that is a lot] from foes of PT. As the blogfather, what in the heck is one to do? I think injecting humor to try and diffuse things is a solid decision.
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 18, 2011 7:36 PM PST up reply actions
Thanks, but truth be told it wasn't even that complicated or calculated --
I just thought it was a funny image.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
What should be done? Every person that wrote or rec'ed that comment should be given a strike.
and Nico should take what people that disagree with him say seriously and not be a dick.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 18, 2011 8:00 PM PST up reply actions
Should we also take the comment about stabbing seriously AND literally?
By the way, are you calling Nico a dick here?
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 18, 2011 8:07 PM PST up reply actions
Over react much?
I feel like I’m witnessing a descent into madness here. It’s laughable!
by jdub69 on Jan 18, 2011 10:36 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Fascist!
Bob Geren was born in a suburban apartment complex he built with his own two hands.
by QueenOfCansAndJars on Jan 19, 2011 6:36 AM PST up reply actions
Oh come on, man.
It was a joke, obviously. And not insulting in the slightest (because it was a joke).
He finds it offensive
because it’s a joke. He’s trying to talk seriously but Nico wants to joke about it.
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
Well in that case I was dead serious.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Dead serious? What happened?
Did you get knifed as well? Was there at least the common courtesy to have it done in your face and possibly to your facial area? If not, then I think he should get a strike for that.
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 19, 2011 2:49 AM PST up reply actions
Heck, I re-read it
and I laughed — and I never find the crap I say funny.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Eh, PT can fend for himself.
All it really says is that Paul comes off as a prick sometimes. Even when he has no intention of being a prick. Even his most ardent of detractors will never accuse him of sloppiness.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
Whcih is a shame.
There’s a lot to be said for a sloppy prick, depending of course, on the owner.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
How do you not get
that people are sick of his tone, sick of the robotic nature of the analysis? His crap drains the joy out of most every signing, most every moment. Everything is reducible to some number that we must genuflect before.
It is a bloodless sort of fandom that many here find incredibly tedious and gloomy.
by RLangford on Jan 20, 2011 12:08 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
So what?
He’s not relentlessly negative, which is the only CGV you could fine him under. Everything he posts is thoughtful, well reasoned, and shows how much he reads here. You may not agree with his points, which is perfectly fine, but nobody should be allowed to just tell him to go shove it, and it certainly shouldn’t be this highly recommended. itsgemme’s post was a personal attack, which is a clear CGV, and contributes much more to a hostile posting environment than PT’s vitriol, if you will.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 20, 2011 10:13 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Optimism
The other side of that:
The bullpen is that much stronger than last year, and if Cahill or Braden falters, Geren can make a quicker hook. The team, with Matsui, Willingham and De Jesus, has a much stronger line-up and I suspect we’ll see better seasons from both Suzuki and Kouzmanoff. Also, improvement from Barton as well.
Texas is weaker — both Wilson and Lewis outperformed their capabilities last year, and unlike the A’s, who have both Anderson and Gio as potential stoppers, there’s nobody else in Texas to play that roll.
The A’s, most importantly I think, have Chris Carter. He won’t start the season in the majors but my gut feeling is that he’s a monster hitter, as he showed in the final two weeks of last season, and he can make a huge difference.
Here’s the deal: instead of looking at the season as a whole, look at the season in terms of holding steady and staying close til September - and then all bets are off. And I don’t think there’s anyone here who doesn’t think the A’s can hold steady til September. If Texas doesn’t get off to an outrageous start, and if the A’s hang tough - then fuck pythagoreans, fuck UZR, fuck FIP, fuck xFIP, fuck all of that …. down the stretch if our guys are pitching lights out, and a couple of hitters are on a roll, the A’s can outperform their pythagorean, they can outperform their FIP, their xFIP and all of that.
The season needs to be played, and the A’s may not have quite the horses as the Rangers, but it’s pretty damn close. Hell, who would’ve predicted the Giants last year winning the World Series? Or even Texas getting there as well?
by richwol1 on Jan 17, 2011 8:16 PM PST up reply actions 15 recs
I predicted Texas making the playoffs and wasn't terribly surprised that they made the WS
I was surprised that they lost to the Giants but I probably shouldn’t have been. I underrated the Giants all year.
If your point is that anything can happen, sure it’s true.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 17, 2011 9:00 PM PST up reply actions
You could be underrating the Athletics in 2011 as well.
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 17, 2011 9:51 PM PST up reply actions
Am I missing something here? You don't even seem to be disagreeing with me.
You’ve basically said “the A’s can win the division if they get really lucky.” Isn’t a one in six or one in seven chance of winning, the same thing as saying the A’s can win the division if they get really lucky?
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
What you seem to be missing is that you would not have written that post.
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 17, 2011 10:09 PM PST up reply actions
You really nailed it on the head
I can’t reasonably disagree with much, if anything, that you said in your analysis Paul. I value your willingness to stand by an unpopular, but educated position. I also think AN would be noticebly worse off without you.
But if I could change one thing that you keep bringing up (and of course I can’t) it is your position that the franchise’s future doesn’t look good. Not because you’re necessarily wrong, but because all of that real variance that exists within a single season seems downright predictable when compared to everything that can happen in a few seasons with the off-seasons mixed in.
I need to be able to look towards 2012 and dream in case we fall out of this race this summer (which of course we won’t!)
"Juuuuust a bit outside" - Harry Doyle
by ArunisArun on Jan 18, 2011 1:35 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Why is bring up the fact that we are doomed (which we are) any worse than sunshine pumping that is applauded by so many?
one (PT) is far closer to reality.
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 18, 2011 4:25 PM PST up reply actions
I was trying to make clear that it's not any worse (or at least no more destructive to constructive debate)
That’s why I was stated that it was just a preference of mine.
"Juuuuust a bit outside" - Harry Doyle
by ArunisArun on Jan 18, 2011 5:08 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
and the sunshine pumpers make me want to vomit. but no one is trying to bully them
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 18, 2011 6:40 PM PST up reply actions
I would guess your perspective in general
makes you want to vomit a lot.
What does "doomed" mean to you?
From my perspective it looks kindof like this:
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 18, 2011 5:08 PM PST up reply actions
Doomed?
Do you ever pause in between taking yourself and your analysis so seriously to consider the possibility that you might be wrong?
The self-certainty and overwhelming seriousness with which you cling to your hopelessness is mind-blowing.
I don't think it's one in six, or one in seven....
There are two factors going on here - if we discount Seattle and the Angels’ chances. The first is whether Oakland can either improve sufficiently to get to 88-90 wins; and the second is whether Texas can get to that same level. While it appears on the surface that Texas has a better shot than the A’s, that’s really based on its rotation pulling another rabbit out of a hat. Um….up til 2010, that has never happened. The pitchers have wound up wilting in the August Texas sun. Every year, until 2010.
On the other hand, the A’s, playing in a cooler climate, have frequently gone the other direction in August and September.
The odds are far greater than one in six or one in seven. Yeah, Texas appears to be the favorite, but not so much that an A’s win would be all that much of an upset.
Why would you discount Seattle's and (especially) Anaheim's chances?
Also, the reason Texas’s pitching has sucked has not been because their pitchers “wilted in the sun,” or whatever. It’s been because they were bad pitchers. They sucked. This is a team that had Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla as the GOOD part of the rotation for prolonged parts of this decade.
I’m not sure why people (not just you, I’ve seen this argument or similar ones several times this offseason) are having such a hard time coming to grips with the rather simple hypothesis that Texas’s pitching improved because they got rid of a bunch of bad pitchers and replaced them with good ones.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Stay Miserable
Your challenge of Billy Beane’s attempt to improve this team is audacious. I don’t think you will be mocked for your stance, I think it’s just easy to get locked into thinking about a team’s limitations so much one can lose sight of how they can reach their potential.
First off, we won’t be able to really judge how good or bad this team will be until maybe June. We will have a better idea about injuries at that time and which areas will the team need to improve upon.
I love to see how many people call Cahill “lucky” based on last year’s numbers and just expect him to regress. Never mind he’s pitching half of his games in a great park that suits his style let alone other pitchers on the staff. Without getting too deep, BB has done a great job of alleviating a lot stress on our starters by improving the pen. Will Geren take advantage of the fact he doesn’t have to let his young yet experienced staff take it on the chin or bring in relief, we’ll see.
I expect our defense to improve especially on the left side compared with last year. Many have been critical of Kouz’s D, but why? He’s not hurt. Penny was criticized for his high error totals but many of those early season errors were corrected as the season progressed. His range was better than most had anticipated and many errors came off of balls other SS couldn’t get. Once again, if it’s Kouz’s range one is worried about, I wouldn’t fret over it. He’s got great backup.
As long as Ellis stays healthy, his range may not be what it was but he sat out a season’s worth of wear and tear when he suffered the SLAP lesion from his collision with Crosby. He is fairly durable when other’s aren’t whacking him.
The outfield will be interesting and I can’t comment on the range of Dejesus or WIllingham, hopefully Crisp won’t wear himself out or his welcome in Oakland if Geren gets Sweeney to offer CF relief fairly often. Still, the addition of these two players to our lineup will pay dividends by moving our 3-5 hitters from last season to more appropriate places in the lineup. No matter how much you expect our overall defense to regress, they play in a park that will give more chances to get outs that otherwise would be out range and their digression will be incremental if at all.
However you measure two standard deviations of luck, I am not sure, but this team is young except for one infielder, and a couple of relievers. Injuries/durability tend to wear down older teams than younger ones. Hopefully, a new medical staff will be underutilized and issues such as Anderson’s forearm or Crisp’s body will not be issues. Anyway, I hope you will be pleasantly surprised by our season.
"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King
by Gerard on Jan 17, 2011 10:04 PM PST up reply actions 5 recs
How in the world could our defense improve on the left side?
I haven’t heard anyone be critical of Kouz’s D. They say he will probably regress, but he was the absolute best defender in the league last year; who’s criticizing him? Penny was also possibly the best, but probably 2nd behind Alexei Ramirez. You think we’ll go from being the best left side of the infield defensively to…the bestest left side of the infield?
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 17, 2011 11:45 PM PST up reply actions
Why don't you and Nico predict our win total
And we will see who is closer. Nico’s analysis is no more or less flawed than yours. Before last year Texas was seen as lacking the pitching to compete. They could very easily return to that status quo. Their rotation is pretty weak and their bullpen lacks depth. They’ve always had a great offense but now everyone wants on the bandwagon because of CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis?
We are probably a step behind Texas but are within striking distance. Given where we started I am satisfied with that and I am looking forward to seeing how it all plays out.
Fine by me...
I’m sure there will be a post in a month or so when teams’ roster moves have shaken out.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
we can look back on all this arguing and laugh when you both project the a's to win 86-88 games.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones."
-BB 07/27/05
I have a feeling this will be the case
They are probably within a few games of each other. Though PT may think Texas is better. I think Nico just sees it with rosier colored glasses. As do I.
I've got the A's at 84 currently
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I want to try this dickish method of absolute pronouncements and see how well it works
I’ve got the A’s at 84 currently
You are wrong! The Athletics had a Pythag showing 84 wins last year alone. It is ridiculous to hold the position that the Athletics have not improved from last year somewhat significantly. Therefore, projecting the team’s wins at an equal amount as last year is asinine.
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 18, 2011 3:46 PM PST up reply actions
157-5
come on, our bullpen is unbeatable!!
Empires may crumble, FIP statistics may lose their meaning, but only a Keetsa mattress puts years back on your life while you're sleeping.
by emperor nobody on Jan 18, 2011 3:54 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
There is the 'Geren Factor', apparently.
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 18, 2011 7:44 PM PST up reply actions
The Pythagorean record puts us at 175-0 though
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 18, 2011 9:35 PM PST up reply actions
True!
We must not forget about the post season.
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 19, 2011 2:31 AM PST up reply actions
Where did the two extra wins come from?
Bob Geren was born in a suburban apartment complex he built with his own two hands.
by QueenOfCansAndJars on Jan 19, 2011 6:37 AM PST up reply actions
Man, I just want to have a beer!
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
As stated before
It’s erroneous to base this year on improvements from (or decreased performance from) last year, rather than start from scratch with the projected team in 2011.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
If you're going to say someone is wrong, better be right yourself ;-)
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I...really don't see what the big deal is.
Seems like a perfectly good post to me, as far as tone. What if you were arguing with somebody who you believed to be absolutely, uncategorically wrong?
Wait...
Seems like a perfectly good post to me
…my post just a little above this one? Come on! It’s unnecessarily dickish it did not [and probably should not] have been written that way. It is provacative. The gist of it may have been correct [or it may not have been; depending on one’s perspective] but putting it this was was deliberately asking for disharmony at the site.
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 18, 2011 5:13 PM PST up reply actions
In your eyes, yes.
I thought it was condescending, but I wouldn’t take it as a personal attack.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 18, 2011 5:15 PM PST up reply actions
84 sounds about right to me, too.
But I’m not gloomy about it.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I'm feeling more 86-87ish at the moment
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Not really; I seem to be projecting the Rangers a good deal higher than he is, too
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I hate to bring this up, but...
The only people who were surprised by Colby Lewis’s 2010 are those that ignore Japanese baseball. His 2008 & 2009 were amazing over there.
Personally, I expect that his true MLB talent is likely lower than 2010 indicated, but I don’t think it’s by much.
"Juuuuust a bit outside" - Harry Doyle
by ArunisArun on Jan 18, 2011 1:43 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
and now some people expect him to suck, because hey he's colby lewis!
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones."
-BB 07/27/05
I don't disagree
He is a solid pitcher and did about what I expected. Still, his stats are that of a #2 or #3 pitcher. CJ Wilson is also a good pitcher, but with him, it is his health I am concerned about.
In the end they are two guys who will probably post ERAs in the high 3s. They are followed by 3 other guys who will be lucky to sniff a 4 ERA. It is not a good staff…
I do agree that their pitching staff is the weakest link of the team
But this is not an early 2000’s staff IMO.
It would be dangerous to ignore the prospect of Feliz starting and they have good arms in the minors too.
"Juuuuust a bit outside" - Harry Doyle
by ArunisArun on Jan 18, 2011 11:02 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Japanese baseball success rarely equates to American baseball success.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 18, 2011 9:39 AM PST up reply actions
I certainly wouldn't refute that
I guess what I’m saying is that when Lewis outperformed his projections (which reflected rough translation from NPB to MLB) I wouldn’t assume that he outperformed his true talent level. I haven’t done the research, but the number of pitchers that have gone 1st round pick to below average MLBer to stellar NPBer back to MLB has to be tiny if not nonexistent. Because of that I think it’s reasonable to put less weight on what he was projected to do (and therefore consider expected regression) and more weight on what he actually did. And what he actually did didn’t strike me as lucky.
"Juuuuust a bit outside" - Harry Doyle
by ArunisArun on Jan 18, 2011 11:11 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
If you take out the "back to MLB" it happens pretty often
AAAA guys go over to the NPB and find great success fairly regularly; see Murton, Matt.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 18, 2011 11:14 AM PST up reply actions
Don Nomura disagrees
"Ain't no man can avoid being born average, but there ain't no man got to be common." - Satchel Paige
since WAR is FIP based
isnt their ERA-FIP differential irrelevant to their production last year? and wont regressing the defense normalize their luck?
Not necessarily
Defense is a part of luck (as far as pitchers are concerned), but only a part. Having a bunch of line drives seared right at defenders, for example, is also luck, despite the fact that the plays are not actually that difficult to execute for the fielders.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
that makes sense
how much worse do you think the rotation will be this year?
Well, I've got them at around 10.5 WAR, but that's luck-neutral and I think they were 15 runs or so luckier than average
so, around 3 wins worse, excluding the effect of defense.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
if your memory extends back to 1989...
The prospects for this franchise winning a title in the near future are as poor as they’ve ever been within my memory, which extends back to basically 1989.
what about 1993-1998?? the a’s were pretty much terrible for a six year stretch, do you really think they had a better chance of winning a title than the current team?
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones."
-BB 07/27/05
Who couldn't feel confident when Todd Stottlemyre toed the rubber
And you had big bad scary Geronimo Berroa as your big bat?
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan at tvprookiecardretirementplan.wordpress.com !
Hey Now!
When you've played this game for 10 years and gone to bat 7,000 times and gotten 2,000 hits do you know what that really means? It means you've gone 0-5,000. -Reginald Martinez "Reggie" Jackson
by Geronimo Berroa on Jan 18, 2011 8:15 AM PST up reply actions
stop messing with my youth.... I loved the Chief
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 18, 2011 4:32 PM PST up reply actions
I used to always mix up his name as a kid with Yogi Berra
Me: We’ve got some bats, we’ve still got Yogi Berra!
Dad: I keep telling you this: Yogi Berra is an old man!
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 18, 2011 4:35 PM PST up reply actions
Yes, because back then even though the MLB team sucked, they had a plan for not sucking
Right now, I can’t figure out what the plan is.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Could you figure out the plan in 1993?
or do you just recognize it retrospectively now?
You not knowing what the plan is does not equal non-existence of a plan.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
In 1993, I was a nine-year-old reading the occasional boxscore in the paper
so, no, certainly no knowledge of a plan back then.
I’m aware of the truth of your second sentence, but when a whole ton of really smart outside analysts have gone from “the A’s clearly have a plan” to “I think this is part of a plan” to “is this some kind of plan?” to “wow, if this is a plan, I sure can’t figure out what the goal is” in a few years’ time, that’s a problem.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Either that or
it’s a super-cool SECRET plan!
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
i bet you $10 that this 2011 a's team is closer to one day winning a world series than the 1993-1998 teams
you owe me $10
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones."
-BB 07/27/05
Well, seing as the 1993-98 teams were at least 13-18 years away I'd say you got yo self $10
Assuming a spit handshake of course
i accept paypal
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones."
-BB 07/27/05
What I don't understand here is that you are doing several things at once, some of which seem mutually exclusive:
1) Reminding everyone that one must project based on career history of each player from scratch and not just add and subtract WAR for (say, the A’s and Rangers) based on their post-season changes as if the players will all replicate their 2010 seasons in 2011. Very good point.
2) Projecting the A’s to regress toward the norm, but, so far as I can tell, exempting the Rangers from the same requirement. Several key players on the Rangers had career years: Josh Hamilton had one other great season, but it was not nearly as good as last year. He would project, in the standard 5-4-3 etc. to not have a 6.6 offensive WAR season in 2011, for sure. He is injury prone. With any luck at all, he’ll go back to drugs (just kidding). Nelson Cruz is even moreso a candidate for regression. He’s not 25 like Daric Barton, who also had a career year- he’s going to be 31 during the season. Etc…
I’m not asking you to lay out projected WAR for the whole roster of both teams, especially since you prefer to use other ways of evaluating bullpens, but I’m sure you’ve done the work. A shorthand way of looking at whether or not the A’s and Rangers are within a few wins on paper of each other is to do exactly what you recommend not doing, which is to add and subtract, while regressing, to try to figure out how close the teams are. You say you’ve done the work, and you think the shorthand method results in bullshit analysis, but you’re not sharing how you stack up each position. So why even bother discussing it with those of us who are too lazy, stat/analysis challenged to do our own work, if you’re not going to share your projections beyond, the Rangers are 6-7 games better than the A’s?
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 4:49 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Kouz is an example of a lot of the double standards
He has been above 2.5 WAR for 3 years and yet because of the composition of the WAR, everyone expects him to be worse next year. His defense can’t continue to improve or stay steady but his offense cannot reverse its downward trend. For him its ok to look at 1 year and not 3, but in other cases we are wrong to do such an analysis.
I completely understand the statistical argument that Kouz could be a 2 WAR player next year. But there is a perfectly valid argument to him being a 3 WAR player.
Huh?
Pretty much every “stathead” thinks his offense will regress positively and his defense will regress negatively. There was a whole argument about it in a recent thread. Someone brought up that his defense will regress and his offense will stay bad; they were rebutted pretty quickly by a lot of people. There is no double standard.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 18, 2011 5:12 PM PST up reply actions
I agree.
The only debate was to the degree of each regression. Many thought that his defensive regression to the negative, would more than offset his positive offensive regression. I disagreed, but not on the reality of regression.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
Maybe I am misremembering
but weren’t a lot of people calling him a 2 WAR player on the decline? Admittedly I dont read every thread and comment so I may have missed the discussion you are referring to. I was harkening back to the Beltre discussions and the potential WAR upgrade.
Thejd and I were those people
You don't need a religion, you have the A's. - My girlfriend
by designatedforassignment on Jan 19, 2011 3:53 PM PST up reply actions
I see it the same way
but, so far as I can tell, exempting the Rangers from the same requirement.
+1
"It boils down to this. You guys aren’t fans of our management and look through that prism." ~ DrDoom
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 18, 2011 5:16 PM PST up reply actions
How long do you want my posts to be? :-)
If there’s a projection thread, I’ll gladly try my hand at one for each team. (It will, most certainly, incorporate heavy regression on Josh Hamilton.)
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I for one have less problem with a long post than with a short one without details
I remain ignorant to some degree and wish to gobble up the details I am too ignorant/lazy/unmotivated to derive myself…
Never ask a parasite if you are serving too much food…
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 8:25 PM PST up reply actions
I tend to think that once it runs over a page, it's time to break the thing up
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I've never had that much food.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Have I mentioned my fantastic new solution for people who want to eat lots of food and not get fat?
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
No. Pray tell, please?
Let me guess:
Intentionally introduce a tapeworm?
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 9:19 PM PST up reply actions
To another tapeworm?
Tapeworm love!!!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Is your last name Mrx or something.
Nico Something, right?
Vy a duck? Vy not a goat?
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 9:26 PM PST up reply actions
preview
Marx
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 9:26 PM PST up reply actions
You actually had it right the first time
My full name is Nico Mrx.
As you might guess, I get a lot of mail for “Mr. X”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
That sounds cool
I get a lot of mail addressed to Mr. King, but that seems weird. Shouldn’t it be to ‘His Majesty, the King’?
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 9:32 PM PST up reply actions
Its good to be king!
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
Precisely
It’s like natural bulimia!
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Wo0n't this lead to 'park effects' in the discussion?
“No, I know what the scale says, but it’s not me- that damned tapeworm is gaining all the weight…”
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 9:24 PM PST up reply actions
That's "pork effects," but yes.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Thank you for the improvement
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 9:25 PM PST up reply actions
"The prospects for this franchise winning a title in the near future are as poor as they’ve ever been within my memory"
No… Just no.
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
Point: A's are 6-7 games worse than the Rangers and the Angels are good too
Counterpoint: Jane you ignorant slut. Fuck your negativity. A’s rule!
I’m not seeing a lot of light here. Just a lot of heat, and the first line of this post set the tone.
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 17, 2011 8:45 PM PST reply actions 5 recs
I agree
That line seems more than slightly provocative considering some of the banter going on in other threads.
OK, I'll edit it (and get slammed for that)
since that wasn’t the intention. Stay tuned…
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Revisionist history, FTW!
I love January.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'm not seeing the point of this entire post other than as a counterpoint to PT's position
Is there a point to it I’m missing?
It's because he derived his torque from the buttocks -- cityplANner
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 17, 2011 8:58 PM PST up reply actions
It's not a counterpoint to some individual's position
It’s a counterpoint to the notion that the A’s haven’t improved enough to put themselves in position to contend in 2011, which many commenters over the past couple weeks have suggested to be the case.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
It's like they want the A's to suck just so they can be right.
It’s a baffling way to live.
by AsFan72 on Jan 18, 2011 6:24 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
More lies-- man, you're really on a roll here
What’s next, accuse anyone who projects the Rangers to win of supporting terrorism
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Actually that's called an opinion...
And it’s posed in a non-absolute way. Notice the “it’s like,” which ya know, means “it’s similar to.”
it was an opinion up until he said..."so they can be right."
when you assign false motive, it transitions to an attack in my view.
but i’ve been up since 3:30am, so what do i know.
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
You obviously know what time it is.
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
Or at the very least....
What time it was when he got up.
YES! Have you been reading some of my comments?
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
IMHO( backed by statistics), my beer comments are by FAR the most lucid
Fan: "Yeah, whatever. You’re wrong." Stat guy: "No, you’re wrong." Fan: "Cool. Pass me a beer." Stat guy: "Here you go." Sigh, if only it was this easy.
[[grapples with bizarre mental image of Elvis Andrus doing militant "jihad" training in Northern Pakistan]]
Empires may crumble, FIP statistics may lose their meaning, but only a Keetsa mattress puts years back on your life while you're sleeping.
by emperor nobody on Jan 18, 2011 4:06 PM PST up reply actions
you're not doing anything dirty to that bizarre mental image, are you?
Bob Geren was born in a suburban apartment complex he built with his own two hands.
by QueenOfCansAndJars on Jan 18, 2011 5:39 PM PST up reply actions
"grappling"
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I agree with all of this...
And I really, really dislike the Rangers Starting Rotation. It reminds me of their rotations before 2010… We used to laugh at those rotations, but we are going to accept the following as “above average”? Wilson, Lewis, Webb, Holland, Hunter??? That is a horrible starting rotation!
Pitching wins championships!
Holland definitely has a chance to be good,
but he also missed time in 2010 with an arm injury. I was wrong about Lewis and Wilson not being good in 2010 but that doesn’t mean I’ll be wrong about it in 2011 — one of them will likely fall considerably, while one likely continues to be as good. And when you add it all up, you could wind up with 2 good starting pitchers and a bullpen Ron Washington seems passionately devoted to using as poorly as possible. And that’s before injuries.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Plus
I remember that Interleague stretch the Rangers had last year. From June 8th – June 27th, they went 16-2. They faced Seattle x 3, Milwaukee x 3, Florida x3, Pitt x 3, and Houston x 6… That was an incredibly lucky stretch of luck to play the teams they did. Meanwhile, we played 6 vs. the Giants, got swept by the Reds (a good team), split with the Giants (a good team), 1-2 @ The Cubs, 1-2 @ STL, and 3-0 vs. PITt…
Those schedules were very different and it was a major factor in the AL West. It gave the Rangers some breathing room. MLB should really do something to equal up the interleague action year-in, year-out.
by Colorado Fan on Jan 17, 2011 9:50 PM PST up reply actions
It would certainly be nice if they got rid of the dimwitted "6 games against the same opposing franchise every season" thing
That really hurts strength of schedule balance.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I am always suspicious of analyses like these,
which say “here is how we scored last year” and then assign extra wins for everything that has gotten better and add to it. I think it’s always easy to point the things that could improve while never noticing the things that will get worse. Almost definition, the improvements are more identifiable: they got fixed precisely because we knew what they were and how to address them. But we don’t really know all the things that are going to go wrong.
I think if this sort of analysis were applied to every team, you’d find that on average all teams improved by ~4 games, which is logically impossible. I’ll start trusting analyses like these when part of the equation is to take away four games as a sort of Murphy’s Law factor — so that you have to “improve” just to stay even.
(Nevertheless, I love the post, Nico. I liked it even better with the lead-in; not sure why so many people found it offensive.)
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I get your suspicions, which are well-founded,
but I think in this case — using the lineup as an example - it’s just clearly better overall. Sure, some things are worse (like Ellis is still the 2Bman but is a year older as a hitter) but the lineup that had Suzuki/Kouz in the #3#4 slots now has them in the #6-#7 slots with actually good hitters (Barton-Matsui-Willingham-DeJesus) in the heart of the order. I don’t see how any objective analysis would say the offense doesn’t project to be better.
If you look at 4 categories that pretty much cover all the important areas, and see that two have improved and two haven’t gotten worse, then I think it’s reasonable to assert that overall the team has, in fact, gotten better.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Autoformatting is the devil's way of using the internet to destroy my life.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Serious question
Does SBN comment auto-formatting improve a single user’s experience?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I do avail myself of it frequently,
mostly for italics and bold, but occasionally for other things. But even for me, the many times when it is a small time-saver are probably outweighed by the few times when it is a large hassle.
Even if it does have some small positives, it’s definitely a gigantic net bad. Especially since, as DFA and I have discussed, the people who understand it well enough to make use of it are exactly the same people who need it the least because they could type in the HTML codes almost as easily.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Yeah
And you’ve really taken the time to understand exactly why/how it works which is (1) not documented anywhere; (2) admirable; and (3) more time than most people put in.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I have entertained thoughts of documenting it,
but whenever I think it through, it tends to lead me to the conclusion that we really need is just to get rid of it.
If ever I did write up something, the theme would not be so much “how to make use of SBN’s helpful auto-formatting” as “how to avoid being screwed by SBN’s stupid auto-formatting”.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Two of the four categories have "gotten worse"
or, to put it more accurately, project worse this year than they actually produced last year.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
And there is the key difference
Believing in last years results and believing in projections. A bit of both will be true. Cahill seems to be the root of all this. If his ERA is closer to 3, it bodes well for Nico. If it’s over 4, PT may be more accurate. Though more Brett Anderson and less Ben Sheets make me lean towards Nico’s assumption regardless.
I will enjoy seeing what actually happens.
the rotation produced 12 WAR last season
isnt that about what it projects to in 2011?
That's FIP-based WAR, though
It’s only indirectly connected to runs scored and allowed.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
i dont fully understand what that means
is it wrong to project the team by adding pitching WAR to fielding WAR to batting WAR (to 48)?
No, that's fine
What I meant is that the pitching is going to be “worse” because it’s going to lose the element of non-fielding-based luck, over and above the projected worsening of the fielding. But that won’t show up in pitching WAR.
The starters’ own FIP-based WAR is also reasonably likely to be worse next year (keep in mind that the A’s starting staff was actually healthier than normal last season; it’s the position players that were outrageously injury-prone), though I don’t think there’s a large difference (1-2 wins).
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
got it, thanks
ive been projecting about the same amount of lost time from the front four as last year (~20 starts), but perhaps thats overly optimistic given each individual starter’s risk of season ending injury.
Given that every one of the six nominal starting candidates has hit the DL at some point in the last two seasons,
and four of six have missed huge chunks of time, I’d say losing only 20 starts would be pretty favorable.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
This is true. However, the SP projects worse because the outstanding D gave better results than FIP, xFIP etc projected for last year, too.
The link you provided showed a pretty mixed projection from 2009 to 2010 for the SP. In every case their ERA’s outperformed their 2009 projections. Generally, those same pitchers had better (or very similar) FIPs and xFIPs for 2010 than they did for 2009- which means that even ruling out the defense, the pitchers improved in 2010. However, the pitchers far outperformed their FIP and xFIP in 2010- the difference is defense and luck. The projected regression will be mitigated by some amount due to the A’s defense.
It’s all about the defense. I fully expect the A’s infield defensive numbers (UZR, WAR) will look worse at the end of 2011. What I hope is that the inherent noise in UZR will mean that although the numbers will look worse, the actual run prevention will not be worse. If the actual defensive performance of the infield is similar to 2010, regardless of the metrics, then the pitchers can be expected to outperform their projections- though they might not outperform their 2010 ERA’s, for sure.
Bottom line, the two categories that project worse are really one category, defense, and the metrics we currently have are very noisy with regard to measuring that performance…
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 8:55 AM PST up reply actions
Defense, luck and park
Especially with xFIP. Because of the Coliseum, A’s pitchers HR/FB should be lower than average.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
True, that-- park, too.
Point still stands: SP projects worse but just using the raw projections doesn’t take park and defense into account and will project worse than a truly cognizant fan would expect.
Until those who denigrate the A’s chances explain that even when defense and park are taken into account, the A’s still project poorly, well, I can hope…
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 12:44 PM PST up reply actions
The difference between ERA and FIP was about 90 runs
Of that roughly half was defense and another chunk, maybe 30 or so, was due to the park; the rest has to be either currently undetectable cryptic skill, or luck.
I’d expect a similar performance from the A’s pitchers to yield about 30 extra runs if they did it next year. Of course they won’t, because of roster turnover and skill changes, but it’s worth noting.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I like this answer. 45 runs to the defense, 30 to the park, luck/cryptic skill 15.
I’m fine with that.
I’m also fine with the idea that including regression of defense and I suppose regression of luck would lead to roughly 30 more runs on the same performance. This dovetails nicely with my unquantified observation that approximately a gazillion close plays defensively at first were ‘bang-bang’ and that most went the A’s way in 2010. (I would assume that the mean of luck would be 0? Although I know of some who feel that luck is a commodity- that having been unusually lucky at some point, a person can expect to be unusually unlucky going forward, having overused his share…)
so, A’s defense and pitching if the pitching stays the same, yields -3 wins compared to this year. Now, what about the offense?
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 8:35 PM PST up reply actions
dont forget, youre just talking about the rotation
the bullpen was a 0.9 WAR disaster last year. between the additions and (hopefully) improved health, it projects to be, what, 3 wins better?
fwiw, a 3.9 WAR would’ve ranked 9th in baseball last season. the padres led the majors with 7.8.
Yes, everyone agrees the bullpen is going to be better
See above. The question is about whether the starters can be projected at the same level as last season.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I don’t see how any objective analysis would say the offense doesn’t project to be better.
I don’t see any objective analysis that does.
It’s not your two improvements people disagree on (the bullpen, too, is quite likely to be better if at too high a price). It’s the other two.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I'm lost here?
Are you saying with your second sentence that all objective analysis projects the offense to be worse this year? In combination with the first sentence it certainly appears to.
I understand that the rules of statistics and the meaning of fielding-independent pitching analysis make Nico’s assertion that the SP will ‘be the same’ a debatable point. Which I debated a while back by showing that statistical analysis of the 2009 season also showed the SP was likely to get worse (much worse) in 2010, which it did not, and that the same analysis shows a not-too-huge regression to be likely in 2011. To counter the statistical likelihood of the starting pitching regressing, we have only the assertion that young pitchers do often continue to improve, and that the A’s defense masks a lot of faults.
Which leaves defense: I have no doubt at all that at the end of the season, evaluated purely by UZR, the A’s infield defense will have a smaller +WAR at the end of 2011 than it did at the end of 2010. I’m not so sure about the outfield, since Crisp’s likely lower UZR and Willingham’s suspect D have to be balanced against all the AAAA dreck that played there last year. What Nico implicitly is asserting is that defensive metrics and projections do not equal defense, and from this he cheerily asserts that the D will be just as good overall as it was in 2010.
So, about the second sentence, are you also asserting the offense will be worse?
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 8:17 AM PST up reply actions
No, sorry if I was unclear
The title is a quote (without marks) from Nico, I’m making the point that this isn’t really relevant, since no one projects the offense to be worse.
I think projections would tell you:
Better Offense (actually having hitters in the COF)
Better Pen (regression from oddly bad years plus new talent)
Worse SP (regression from oddly good years plus injury risk)
Worse Defense (regression from oddly good years in the IF, plus Willingham)
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
What about the oddly bad years UZRwise by the outfield?
Rajai, Sweeney and Gross have all scored lower than what everybody thought to see and lower than their true talent. The infield scored better than everybody thought to see and better than their true talent. So the point of worse defense next year is still highly debatable.
Why should Kouz actually field worse in 2011 than he did in 2010?
UZR will regress, not Kouzmanoff. Same with Barton.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Barton was the best defensive 1B in baseball last year
That means he is likely to regress this year.
But if your point is that it might be the measurement rather than the talent it’s certainly possible. 1 year UZR is a messy number. For a less messy number, the A’s pitching staff led the league in ERA – FIP differential, and therefore you’d expect them to regress there.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
See my comment above -- basically saying what you're saying
in the first sentence of your second paragraph.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
He's likely to regress because his UZR was unusually high
not because he was the best defensive first baseman. I’m sure that’s what you meant, but its not the same thing.
Sure
But to be the best defensive first baseman is an illustration of how high it was, so I’m not sure there’s really a difference.
Either way, you’re right that it’s the high UZR, not the award, which suggests regression.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
But being the best first baseman or having a high UZR are connected differently to regression
If he has a high UZR, then yes he will probably regress. But if he’s the best defensive firstbaseman through collective agreement or by a history of the best UZR, does that mean he’ll regress?
It’s like saying that since Adam Dunn couldn’t field a ball for crap last year, he’s due to get better defensively this year.
I meant to use his award as a way to highlight his good year
If he had a track record of awards (like Pujols does) it would be something different. Either way, he had his best defensive season ever, and is therefore likely (but not certain) to do worse.
Can we agree on that?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
NO WE CAN NOT.
BECAUSE HE IS AWESOME.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
by mikev on Jan 18, 2011 2:50 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Yes, we can
I see where you’re coming from, but I wanted to point that out.
What’s funny is that even if he does regress a lot next year, he still has a very good chance of still being the best defensive first baseman in the AL. The only other starter with a positive UZR was Lyle Overbay with a 0.1. That’s either amazing or sad.
Entirely possible
And as I said you are right about what points to regression.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Well hypthetically it could make sense
Maybe fewer balls are hit to him by pure coincidence next year. Perhaps Kouz makes more mistakes next year. Because there are fewer opportunities, a few Kouz errors or misreads off the bat could vastly affect his value.
And yeah, some of it is likely UZR noise.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
arent defensive regression and SP regression the same thing in this case?
the rotation only put up 12 WAR last year, because WAR is fielding independent.
if you regress the defense, you’re backing out the luck that resulted in the large FIP-ERA difference.
Maybe
But Gio/Cahill could also backslide on their control. And park/defense does not fully explain the difference (especially for Cahill)
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
right, it doesnt fully explain the difference
theres also luck.
but we’re already accounting for that luck by regressing defensive numbers by approximately 33% (~1.5 wins according to PT).
as a result, projected BABIPs normalize, and the FIP-ERA differential shrinks to what youd project based on the a’s elite defense and effects of the coli.
But you aren't double counting and they are not the same thing
A pitcher’s ERA is:
1. Skill
2. Defense
3. Park
4. Luck
I expect both defense and luck to contribute less this year than last year, so I count them both.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Can you qualify this statement, because I see many who share the same opinion?
“Which leaves defense: I have no doubt at all that at the end of the season, evaluated purely by UZR, the A’s infield defense will have a smaller +WAR at the end of 2011 than it did at the end of 2010. "
I am not convinced this is the case. To what degree will our defense be worse? We have picked up pitchers with effective K/BB ratios, we haven’t lost any of our starters, our young staff should continue to improve and do well.
As a said earlier, I don’t see a digression from the left side and as long as the right side, especially Ellis gets enough off days, he shouldn’t wear out, Barton played at gold glove quality (although I don’t like referencing that to qualify his play).
Truly, How much will this infield regress given the fact that Suzuki had what I would call an off year defensively? Is it enough to put the A’s at a disadvantage compared with the rest of the division.
"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King
Kevin Kouzmanoff is not likely to repeat a +16 UZR
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Correct. He is, however, likely to field about the same
Why wouldn’t he? His age certainly doesn’t suggest he should decline.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Because he just had a great year
There’s a lot of random factors involved, as have been discussed, and looking at that number suggests that a lot of things just happened to go Kouz’ way for one reason or another. Every time he reached into his glove after a hard dive, the ball rolled into his hand at exactly the right seam; the bad hops went towards his glove rather than away, etc. He’ll still be great, just not nutso amazing like last year.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 18, 2011 11:05 AM PST up reply actions
But.... there are two things to consider with defense
1) The player’s skill level, i.e. does he have the physical skills/talent to make the plays? I believe Kouz will not regress much this year vs. last year in this regard. I think this is Nico’s point.
2) What opportunities are the players given to make plays on defense? We don’t know whether Kouz, Penny, Ellis, and Barton will receive the same amount & same type of opportunities to make defensive plays as they did in 2010. Since both the home park and the starting staff is basically the same, I would expect the A’s fielders to have plenty of opportunities to make plays on defense which will contribute to their strong defense. It’s these variations in opportunities that can cause year-to-year fluctuations in WAR.
Ultimately, a defensive player can only make plays on the balls hit to them. If fewer balls are hit to Kouz then his WAR will decrease in 2011. That said, another player’s WAR might increase by the increase in chances.
You don't think his WAR will decrease at all just based on luck/randomness?
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 18, 2011 11:58 AM PST up reply actions
Maybe.
But his decrease in WAR might shift to another player. For example, if fewer balls are hit Kouz’ way, then his WAR will definitely decrease. But if those balls are hit to Pennington instead of Kouz, Penny’s WAR might increase by the same amount that Kouz’ decreased. I just don’t see the A’s overall defense (fielders & pitchers) declining significantly during 2011 as a whole. Individual players = yes. Team = no IMO.
by Flash G on Jan 18, 2011 12:20 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
I think this is a very good point
rec’d
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
Yes, Nico, we know you hate UZR.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Aren't Kouz' UZR predictions also skewed because of sample size?
Beltre, after 13 years, averages 15UZR/150. IF Kouz puts up two more 15UZRs in the next two years, then the 2010 figure becomes more legitimate, correct? We will just have to wait and see.
The sad thing is I so clearly don't convey that sentiment in what I say.
Repeating that misconception doesn’t make it any more true.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
There are two different concepts at play here.
True talent and actual production.
Kouz’s true talent, or what you’re saying, his actual ability to field, likely stays the same. His actual production however, is likely to change, hence why everyone is talking about regression.
Defensive production fluctuates immensely from season to season, much moreso than offense. That is why current projection systems find it so hard to predict, or don’t bother predicting it at all. The best we can do thus far is just regressing to the mean.
My favorite example is the comparison between ‘09 and ’10 Mariners. The ’09 Mariners produced around 85 defensive runs, an absolutely staggering amount. The ’10 Mariners returned the same group, added Chone Figgins, a highly talented defensive player, and managed only 15 defensive runs. That’s a loss of about 7 wins, a huge margin. Why did this happen? Is it because every position player on the Mariners suddenly declined defensively? Not likely. Regression is just a bitch.
Generally, this is why building a team with players who derive most of their value on defensive WAR is less preferable than building a team based on offensive WAR. Offensive production is much more stable and correlates much better with true talent than defensive production. Of course, offense is also much more expensive, which is why the A’s are currently hoping for more of last year than what the ’10 Mariners unfortunately encountered with regards to their defensive production.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 18, 2011 12:39 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I remain unconvinced that actual defensive production varies as hugely as defensive metrics do.
Until we can get Hit/FX or whatever it will be, where all sorts of aspects of the batted ball, the fielder’s range, accuracy of throw, speed of baserunner etc are all evaluated properly, we are going to have metrics that rely at least a bit on judgment calls by observers. (Just imagine if, on your TV set you could see a grid overlaid on the field for all those UZR zones, just as Football can show you where the team needs to get to to make a 1st down. We don’t have even that right now, so I just can’t imagine that those defensive scores for range alone are all that accurate, let alone for speed/trajectory/etc of the batted ball…).
That said, there were a just amazing number of extremely close plays at first that seemed to always go Barton’s way. If half of them don’t in 2011, it changes absolutely nothing about the A’s defensive skills or maybe even their performance, but it will affect not only their defensive ‘runs saved’ metrics, but also the number of baserunners!
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 1:21 PM PST up reply actions
That's fine.
It’s perfectly likely that most of the fluctuation is related to issues with defensive metrics and not actual production.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 18, 2011 1:40 PM PST up reply actions
This is the entirety of my point about the A's defense, Kouz' defense, etc.
The fluctuation is with “the metric in a relatively small sample” — which even UZR’s biggest supporters agree is an issue when looking at one year’s data.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I don't think that was my point.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 18, 2011 1:46 PM PST up reply actions
The metric, in small sample, fluctuates more than the actual result
Which suggests that the result next year may be very similar even if the number associated with it isn’t.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
The problem is that if you believe that,
you have to believe that he basically produces his true talent every year. In which case, he was actually just +5 last year, will be +5 this year, +5 next year, and so on until his true talent declines, which is similar to what everyone else is saying anyways. You wouldn’t be able say that his “actual result” next year would be likely the same as last year’s +16.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 18, 2011 1:59 PM PST up reply actions
No I'm saying his actual UZR/150 level might be a +10
and that this year’s sample got it high. Not meaning that he’s exactly a +10 every single year, but about that.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
The only difference between this and the comment you're replying to
is that you’re using +10 and I’m using +5 as his actual level.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jan 18, 2011 4:35 PM PST up reply actions
That is true. However, it is also true that throwing out his +15 entirely to arrive at a true talent of +5 is just as likely to be unnecessarily pessimistic as projecting him as a true talent +10
I just wish that all of us were more willing to do that to the players some of us covet on other teams.
“We don’t have any stars, therefore we can’t compete” (note, please, I am not directing this at you, but rather at whoever said this above somewhere).
To which I might reply: “first basemen who put up a +4.9 WAR at age 25 without even hitting many homers just might be budding stars”.
And always, I will be reminded that Barton had a career year and is likely to regress. True, that.
Also true that half of the guys we constantly rosterbate about are just as likely to regress.
it is possible that we have a genius-defense infield… It’s hard to prove it, but it really is possible.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 8:46 PM PST up reply actions
just as likely as proojecting him as a true talent +10 is unrealistically optimistic
I should have said.
Preview. Oh well…
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 8:47 PM PST up reply actions
Fielding, like hitting, would still fluctuate no matter how accurately it could be measured.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
You mean a .300 hitter won't get
three-tenths of a hit on every at-bat?
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
This is an interesting direction.
Fan: “I think he is a pretty good hitter”
Statguy: " No, he isn’t. He fails 7/10 BAs"
No
I mean “a .300 hitter” won’t hit .300 every season even if he is a 10-sided die that gets hits whenever 1, 2, or 3 are rolled. Similarly, an outfielder with some fixed range won’t catch every ball within that range.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
The reason they will regress is because, just going by statistical variation, last year appeared to be an outlier.
I’ll use the Kouz as an example. His UZR in his MLB career is as follows, from year to year: -1.1., -3.8, 2.3, 7.5, 16.1. That jump is so huge that it’s hard to think that he’ll not only retain it, but actually improve. I think Kouz is a great fielder, but 16 UZR is Brooks Robinson territory.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 18, 2011 10:53 AM PST up reply actions
Also, I like Barton a lot but I don't think he's going to keep hold of the fielding bible title.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
GTFO with that. He's awesome and you can just quit.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
by mikev on Jan 18, 2011 11:02 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
SOMEBODY NEEDS MORE BASEMENT TIME!!!
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
BUT 1B IS A POWER POSITION!
BARTON DOESN’T HIT ENOUGH HOMERZ!!!
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
:bertstare:
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
:ernielaugh:
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I'm pretty baffled
How you can chide Nico for condescension and then proceed to post a string of comments that is sarcastic, condescending nonsense.
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
I don't see how your argument fits the comment you replied to.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
If he's mocking anti-stat people
or anti-pessimism people or whatever we’re calling it, then it does.
If he’s just joking around, a definite possibility which I failed to acknowledge before I posted that, then it doesn’t.
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
www.domingobeisbol.com/Domingo/Home.html
mikev is not insulting me
his “sense of humor” is very much in play (as both I and iglew acknowledge).
But fair enough if you didn’t see that.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
well, I think your use of quotes around his sense of humor is condescending
;)
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 8:49 PM PST up reply actions
If your emoticon winks at me one more time,
I’m filing sexual harassment charges.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
fair enough
but it was winking at nevermoor
Don’t project your wishes on me. Oh, wait, we did talk about goats a few times, didn’t we.
Well, whatever…
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 8:55 PM PST up reply actions
How come your emoticon never winks at me?
{sobs quietly}
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Awww.
;)
PS, can we has real emoticons?
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 9:04 PM PST up reply actions
Oh stop! {blushes}
…
Why’d you stop?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
just following the hawt comments around
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 9:11 PM PST up reply actions
Why not?
You aren’t supposed to think, are you? Aren’t you just supposed to apply the stats? (sarchasm…)
I thought he played just about as well as I’ve ever seen a first baseman play, and was thrilled it showed up in the stats.
Are you saying he’s not that good, or just as I argued above: that not all those very close plays will go his way next year?
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 1:23 PM PST up reply actions
I'm saying that he had a really good year, and is therefore projected to have a less good year next year
Certainly not with the confidence with which you would project a veteran, but that’s how regression works. Kind of like how you would project Kz to hit better.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
In a numerical fashion, yes.
however in terms of improvement %, 2009-2010 was worse than 2009-2010. It may be that he is just figuring out the position.
He's been playing third base his entire career. You think he's just figuring it out now?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
That wasn't what I was saying, and you should know that.
I was pointing out that the numerical difference looks outlier, while the percentage difference doesn’t. Besides, didn’t Chavez improve in a dramatic fashion after he came tp the show?
it's a counting stat.
That’s like saying a guy who increased from 4 homers to 8 is the same as a guy who went from 20 homers to 40.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Now this is a better response. This comment addresses the issue, and not some sarcastic BS.
In response, I would like to know your prediction of Bautista’s 2011 performance. It seems Jose’s 2010 is expected to continue into ‘11, while Kouz’ won’t.
I have no idea. I don't do projections.
I’d be pretty surprised if he has another 50 homer, 7 WAR season though, yes.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
You completely misundstand me here.
I am only making the point that the defensive measurements at the end of the year will likely not show that the A’s infield defense performed as well in 2011 as in 2010.
I take UZR with a grain of salt as one should for any individual player. It is very much influenced by number of chances, by stuff we don’t understand yet about UZR, by the possibility of bias/error on the part of the observers it relies on to grade plays. By extension, the WARs of players (WAR uses UZR as part of value) need to be taken with a bit of a grain of salt, also.
I was not making any statement whatsoever about the actual performance of the A’s infield defense itself. I haven’t seen any study that proves that players’ defensive performances are any more or less inconsistent than their batting so I won’t hazard a guess as to whether the A’s will play just as well, worse or better as a whole in the field.
I do know that in 2011 Barton saved many many opposing baserunners with bang-bang plays at first where he just beat the runner. Maybe that will continue, maybe it won’t. It could be luck, and it wouldn’t change his true talent one whit, just the outcome…
I believe the true talent of the A’s infield, CF and some pitchers’ D is very high.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 1:00 PM PST up reply actions
Urban likes the A's chances
New piece out on the recent signings. Here
And trust Beane. The man knows what he’s doing, and the Balfour and Fuentes moves are further evidence that he’s doing it well — with one eye on the present and another on whatever variables might come Oakland’s way in the next six months.
Projected payroll of $68 mil room to take on additional contracts in July.
Did someone say Psyched!
we're doomed
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones."
-BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Jan 18, 2011 2:18 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
The payroll will no doubt be higher than Urban thinks.
He missed the open Arby cases of Braden and Willingham. My guess for the payroll is more like 72 million (assumes 5 mill for Fuentes). And Ziggy got a lot more than I expected, so there is chance that I am quite a bit on the low side.
I got $62.5 Million with everyone but Fuentes and Breslow
With Fuentes it’ll be the 68 that Urban said, plus whatever Breslow gets. I have to imagine that Urban didn’t think Willingham, Kouz, etc. would get as big of raises that they got.
$3.3M to Conor Jackson
Apparently his stellar performance last season was worth a raise!
Just incomprehensible. I’m shaking my head, really.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
True, but I don't think any arbitration panel would give him less than he got last year
So this is the best they could do. It’s expensive for a 5th OF, but we might as well give him a chance….
He better not bat 3rd like last year though…
It wouldn't have surprised me at all if he got less than last year; the minimum is $2.5M, but I think the A's could have forced it down to $2.8M or so
Apparently they actually think he’s worth more than that. Why, God only knows.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Yeah, that's just crazy
Billy and his man crushes…
I saw todays contract numbers now
I am now at 66 million without Breslow and Fuentes but with minimum salary for all the other 40 men roster guys. Don’t know where the differene between us comes from.
Oh that's where it is. I didn't add in all of the 40-man because I didn't think they got paid the minimum unless they actually were in the MLB for the season
I was under the impression that SAC pays Taylor, etc. until he actually gets called up. Anyone know?
If that’s the case, then you’re right. It would be in the low 70’s, which is very surprising.
Players who are in the minors are generally paid a prorated salary of around $60,000
The exception is guys who have never been in the minors AND are in their first year on a 40-man roster (in this case, that would be Adrian Cardenas, Sean Doolittle, and a couple others I’m forgetting), who can be paid as little as about $30,000.
All of this is calculated on a daily basis, so if a guy spends 90 days each in majors and minors, he’ll be paid in the neighborhood of $230,000 for the year.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
? Did you mean
… never been in theminors[majors] AND …
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Yes
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Good Post Nico
Plain and simple. I like it.
Texas is worse than 2010 and the A’s are better.
How much, we will have to wait and see.
Would like to see another bat though.
what is the point of writing such an optimistic story, we can't know what will happen
CHAOS THEORY
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones."
-BB 07/27/05
if you're going to be this way, there isn't much I can say anymore
You obviously don’t know what Chaos Theory is or you’d know that in it, James Gleick theorizes that the entire Universe adheres to a precise and repeating pattern that takes place over millions and trillions of epochs, not even years but epochs. His essential supposition is that we see events and everything that happens as unprecedented and for the most part an exercise in unorganizably chaotic randomness because we just don’t live anywhere near long enough as individuals or as a collective species to see the repetitive, and therefore predictable, pattern of it all.
If you weren’t just attacking me here and in the other thread for the fun and pure perverse pleasure of it, you’d get that Chaos Theory is actually a lot closer to the statistically-oriented segment of AN than it is to the camp that tends to reject the Moneyball paradigm and its attendant statistical formulae. Hence my remark quoting F. Scott Fitzgerald in the other thread, where he said the sign of true genius is to be able to hold two opposing thoughts in one’s head at the same time. While I probably fall into the camp that just wants to smell the freshly-mown grass and hear the crack of the bat, I also feel an innate trust of Gleick’s thesis having read the book and absorbed what I could of it without a background in the quantum physics and string theory which form the basis of his calculations and his Theory.
This next part may seem inobvious because of where I may seem to sit within the stats-heart balance so often hotly debated here, but I also feel a great deal of pride in the fact that the Athletics franchise has (for not the first and likely not the last time) succeeded in changing the baseball universe forever, this time within the last ten years with these statistical categories that once were on the fringes of the sport but now form a basis that many clubs feel they cannot be without if they are to compete effectively in MLB. When I watch a game now and OBP and OPS are emphasized where once only batting average and RBIs dwelt, I feel proud that this team, of all of them, pioneered this now-essential element of analysis.
What does become obvious, though, is that I need a break from this place, what with my dad in and out of the hospital dying and me moving and whatnot, there’s just too much going on for me to feel able to brook being attacked like this for what amounts to the opposite of what I really think. What’s most troubling is how people who profess to want to be scientific can launch into these kinds of anti-intellectual attacks when they themselves haven’t bothered to attempt a fundamental understanding of the concepts — in this case Chaos Theory — allegedly being discussed. Then they want to turn around and insist upon the absolute efficacy of “the numbers” in determining (in this case baseball) reality, and get tangibly and viscerally offended when they meet with a healthy resistance. In this I refer not in particular to Mr. X here but in general to the unpleasantries displayed in the other Brian Fuentes thread, some of them from me although I really did try to couch my remarks in the least confrontational way possible. Maybe I’m just an asshole. Maybe this is what we get for signing ex-Angels players. I do not know or profess to understand.
I just don’t understand and that lack of comprehension makes participation often feel like a chore and not the joy it is supposed to be. Too often here I am beginning to feel that we forget that this is supposed to be entertainment, a celebration of all the myriad things there are to love about the A’s franchise and it just becomes a toxic environment when it should first and foremost be a supportive community where, when we disagree, we can show respect towards each other at least to the degree where we can work out our differences in the light of that communal spirit of dignity and openness.
Should I just give up? Somehow I think I know what your answer will be before I ask the question… maybe I’m more like you than I’d want to admit and I was born knowing, or at least in my delusion I think I was and can therefore feel available, as you apparently do, to make what I would deem a monkey-minded mockery of tremendously complex and in-depth material like that found in Gleick’s (some feel world-changing) writings. Perhaps I deserve it, having been mocking towards PT and others in my own way with the puppy pictures and so forth.
To clarify once and for all so there can be no equivocation, my issue with PT is never that he fails to command the stats aspect in an effective and knowledgeable way — much the opposite, I would posit that among all of us here he is probably the very most commanding of the material — but that his tone and timbre get so derisive around the content of his predictions and what he feels is right that they as a whole begin to lose perspective and detract from the overall feeling of fun and pleasure I and others feel ought to be the central element of our experience here. I’d imagine that some, if not many, feel I am guilty of much the same as this, as in this long-winded post right here.
Anyway, I apologize for the length of this and I’ll shut up now and leave you to rip me to shreds. Enjoy.
Empires may crumble, FIP statistics may lose their meaning, but only a Keetsa mattress puts years back on your life while you're sleeping.
by emperor nobody on Jan 18, 2011 5:57 AM PST up reply actions 8 recs
(pays extra on utility bill after reading this)
alaska A currently residing in northern Idaho.
by ak_A on Jan 18, 2011 6:27 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
recced!
"You know, a long time ago being crazy meant something. Nowadays everybody's crazy."
-Charles Manson
by kaweahkaweah on Jan 18, 2011 6:43 AM PST up reply actions
I'm not sure Gleick is properly applying chaos theory to what it really means mathematically
Anyway, let’s just say that the entropy of AN (like the rest of the universe) is increasing
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
needs moar bacon
by cuppingmaster on Jan 18, 2011 7:11 AM PST up reply actions
I rec'd your post, e n, because it was honest even if there was at the beginning some rancor
I couldn’t agree more about the tone and tenor of so many comments lately detracting from the overall joy I first felt when I found this site only a year ago.
I almost think it would be wise of most of us to try to ignore who said whatever in response to us and just try to reply to the comments themselves…
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Jan 18, 2011 7:46 AM PST up reply actions
I kinda wish the byline was at the top of each comment
to make it easier to ignore in advance
Bob Geren was born in a suburban apartment complex he built with his own two hands.
by QueenOfCansAndJars on Jan 18, 2011 10:56 AM PST up reply actions
So...um, you do know that chaos theory doesn't apply here, right?
Chaos theory is a mathematical field that deals with deterministic systems. Meaning, a system that has no randomness, that is completely defined from the initial conditions. Baseball is not that. It’s probabilistic, not deterministic.
Please correct me if I'm wrong (and I most certainly am)
Isn’t randomness (in the context of baseball) just the parts that we don’t have enough information to predict? IOW, if we knew all of the contributing factors that went into each pitch and their affect on that pitch then we would be able think of that pitch as a deterministic system. And therefore a baseball game is just a series of deterministic events.
(Again, if you have the time please correct me)
"Juuuuust a bit outside" - Harry Doyle
by ArunisArun on Jan 18, 2011 11:26 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
The problem is that projecting something like a season of baseball relies on much more than just the initial conditions.
In order to be called a deterministic system, something needs to behave according to the initial conditions, and the initial conditions only. A ball placed at the top of a hill is deterministic, in that if we had a perfectly accurate contour map of the hill (down to every pebble) and we knew exactly where the ball was placed (with perfect precision), we could calculate exactly where the ball would end up at the bottom. But a baseball season isn’t like that. In other words, if a baseball season was a deterministic system, we could project with 100% certainty every event that would happen in the 2011 MLB season, assuming we could gather all the data beforehand (and I mean everything: the grain of the wood on the bats, the gusts of wind that pick up in the sixth inning in the end of May, etc).
But a season isn’t that. There’s just too many things in the season that are pure random chance. Even if we zoom way in and look at one pitch—a ball’s flight after being struck with a bat is deterministic, but the whole pitch, when you include the pitcher, batter, and fielder with all of the mindgames that go on, is not.
by danmerqury on Jan 18, 2011 11:50 AM PST up reply actions 3 recs
First of all, thank you for explaining
So, if I’m taking the right thing out of this, it is that people, and their minds, are not deterministic, right?
"Juuuuust a bit outside" - Harry Doyle
by ArunisArun on Jan 18, 2011 12:08 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I meant that Gleick and Bill James are kind of cousins
Obviously one does not apply directly to the other, but they both seem to imagine — at least to me and I get that this analogy is subject to interpretation by those far more versed in these mathematical concepts than I — that given the best possible sample sizes and duration-of-sample we’d as humans be able to “know what is gonna happen” before it does at some far distant point in time, when (as in Gleick’s hypothesis) we would live long enough (immortality? it’d have to be that, crazy as that sounds) to see the whole pattern and be able to predict exactly how that river would carve out that canyon over how many epochs and so forth.
In Bill James it’s that we would evolve higher-and-higher resolution as per statistical models and be able to get such a high resolution on what players’ past performances mean that we’d eventually know for certain what players are worth what real value before the season started or whatever. And then we’d win a lot of money in Las Vegas and Pete Rose would have us on speed dial.
Maybe someone should combine these two theories and write about them under the pseudonym Bill James Gleick.
Empires may crumble, FIP statistics may lose their meaning, but only a Keetsa mattress puts years back on your life while you're sleeping.
by emperor nobody on Jan 18, 2011 2:45 PM PST up reply actions
It is seriously freaking me out that you keep acting as if
James Gleick invented chaos theory. Lorenz and Mandelbrot are turning in their graves.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
don't freak out
he didn’t invent it, of course not. His book is how it reached me so I guess I tend to attribute it to him, but I get that it didn’t start with him.
Empires may crumble, FIP statistics may lose their meaning, but only a Keetsa mattress puts years back on your life while you're sleeping.
by emperor nobody on Jan 18, 2011 3:26 PM PST up reply actions
I echo your sentiments
I too have had interactions that I felt soured when the discussion didn’t need to go that direction, especially with fellow A’s fans. I hope your dad’s health improves and if not then that he isn’t suffering too much. Hang in there.
"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King
I love the sentiment here
"Juuuuust a bit outside" - Harry Doyle
by ArunisArun on Jan 18, 2011 11:28 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Whoa, what??
James Gleick is the theorist now?
James Gleick is a journalist who wrote a best-selling book about science. He didn’t theorize anything.
To talk about Gleick’s thesis is sort of like talking about Michael Lewis’s on-base percentage.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
it's what it says that's important
I think Michael Lewis could start at 3B for us, by the way LOL
Empires may crumble, FIP statistics may lose their meaning, but only a Keetsa mattress puts years back on your life while you're sleeping.
by emperor nobody on Jan 18, 2011 3:27 PM PST up reply actions
I kinda felt the warmth of the sun the other day..
It was 61 in Sacramento, which is unseasonably warm for this time of year. I kinda caught a momentary spring fever. Spring Training is just around the corner. A’s made a lot of bold moves in the offseason. They didn’t just let their quality free agents go this year. Lew Wolf is feelin the pressure to put a winning product on the field. The Gnats win the WS, and now the pressure is on the A’s to start producing. I think the fact that Wolf spent money at ALL is a miracle. He is the cheapest owner in all of baseball. The A’s are making a playoff push with all the talent they have acquired. There is just enough offense and a pitching staff and defense that will shut many offenses down. If the team were to stand pat going into the season, the A’s would have an embarrassment of riches in the bullpen. Remember Joey Devine is reportedly healthy, and Rich Harden is ready to take a setup role if he cant win that 5th starter spot. Harden is a “Max Effort” player. He puts all his effort into every pitch. That has caused him to break down in the past. As a setup man or reliever, he might be able to stay healthy and still be dominant for 1-2 innings. Our rotation is young and powerful. We have pitchers who are just reaching their prime. They were very solid last season, and there is no reason to believe they wont be very good this year. But now, they might pitch with the lead more often, and when they are done the bullpen will seal the deal more often. I can see this A’s team wining 95-100 games. My only wish is that the A’s would have found a way to replace Kousmanoff. His hitting fell off the table last year and his defense will decline sooner than later. Hopefully the A’s can address this by perhaps trading an arm or 2 in the bullpen where they are SO deep. If we can get a hitter who plays good “D” at 3rd, the A’s will be SET going into spring training! WOW, when was the last time you could realistically say THAT about the A’s ? GO A’s !!!
Another year, another chance to hope for the team !!
Predict Carter will lead A's in HRs in 2011
If no more trades are made, I could see Chris Carter working his way into a role where he leads the A’s in HRs this season. His power is legit. He could force A’s into making a spot for him.
Carter = 21 dingers in 105 games played
low average, but walks keep the OBP up
Bob Geren was born in a suburban apartment complex he built with his own two hands.
by QueenOfCansAndJars on Jan 18, 2011 10:53 AM PST up reply actions
Shift + A
so I don’t know if this has been posted but Big League Stew linked you: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/D12-Elderly-Pirates-fans-are-putting-the-pressu;_ylt=AtlF9aVmdlpZBkIb88sGSturO4d4?urn=mlb-309053
"You ain't got nothin to say, it was perfect" -Dallas Braden, 05/09/10
hell hath no fury like a Cowboys fan scorned. -Leopold Bloom
Oh cool -- thanks for mentioning.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
2011
This season will hopefully bring some butts in the seats.
"Holy Toledo"-Bill King
by A's fan since birth on Jan 19, 2011 1:06 AM PST reply actions
1000 more per game, straight from Japan
Bob Geren was born in a suburban apartment complex he built with his own two hands.
by QueenOfCansAndJars on Jan 19, 2011 6:39 AM PST up reply actions
I can guarantee two things for the upcoming season, they are indisputable!
The amount of porn and Asian media members in the clubhouse will increase. If that’s not a net improvement over last season, I don’t know what is!
Often wrong but never in doubt
"The whole thing was a piece of theatre. Billy had told Art how and where to stand during a game so that the players would... take strength from his countenance, because when Art sat on the bench... he looked like a prisoner of war."
-Moneyball
A's in 2011
I’m only cautiously optimistic as long as Bob Geren is still the A’s manager ! While, on paper, the additions of DeJesus, Willingham, Balfour and Fuentes among others, looks tempting, let’s see if they are still in a pennant race, either leading the division or only within three games by the All-Star break and not seven to nine games back as has been their MO since Geren took the helm !
I know they’ve been decimated by injuries the last few seasons. But, they’ve also made some terrible pickups (see Matt Holiday, Jack Cust and Orlando Cabrera ) . So, while, I’ll always be a die-hard A’s fan I also can’t jump for joy \about this season until I see some legitimate results !
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