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Fun with WAR


The more I read about and understand WAR, the more interested I am in breaking it down a bit into a per game basis.  We know that Kurt Suzuki's WAR is 1.5, but he did miss some time.  So what is his WAR/game?  Over a full season of 130 games, it's 1.82.  I don't have the time or desire to do this for everyone in the bigs, especially because perhaps there is a better way of breaking down WAR so that it takes time missed into account.  Perhaps there's already another stat for that.  So I just did it for the A's starting rotation and starting lineup.  Keep in mind that the starting lineup I'm using is the current lineup.

All WAR and games played numbers come from www.fangraphs.com.

So here we go...

 

 

I guess it's not surprising that Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez, and Dallas Braden have the three best  WAR/game on the team.  It's also not surprising that Daric Barton and Coco Crisp have the best WAR/game of the hitters.  I'm not smart enough to know if you can use WAR/game to compare hitters to pitchers, but it seems reasonable given that WAR itself is supposed to make them comparable.


Now extrapolating these numbers over a full season (let's say 150 games) would give Crisp a WAR of 5.685, which is damn good.  If only he could stay healthy.  Anderson would come in with a WAR of 4.7495 in 35 starts, which isn't elite, but is good.  Gio's would be 4.  


I just wanted to mess around with the numbers, and I thought I'd share what I found.

What does everyone think?

UPDATE:  After the WAR/game number I added in what each player's WAR would be if extrapolated over the course of a full season.  I used 150 games for position players and 35 starts for pitchers.

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War is not fun.

Plus, there are two wars going on, and they can’t seem to reconcile which one is the real war. They’re pretty much the same as each other, and neither one seems to have the claim to be right.

I think Obama should pull the troops out of Baseball-Reference and out of Fangraphs, and we should retrench with our old Vorp technology until somebody figures out a war we can all agree on.

Bob Geren was born in a suburban apartment complex he built with his own two hands.

by QueenOfCansAndJars on Sep 8, 2010 9:52 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Youre forgetting StatCorner's WAR

which is what I use for pitchers.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

porque why

Pam liked my old sig better.

by mikev on Sep 8, 2010 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

it uses tRA

I like tRA a lot more than FIP

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

werd.

I do so wish they would pretty the site up just a tad though.

Pam liked my old sig better.

by mikev on Sep 8, 2010 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

what's your whiffle ball WAR?

"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes

by Future Ed on Sep 8, 2010 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

man, I remember VORP....

life was so much more fun. I dont like how there’s so many WARs, whats worse, none of them use a 3 year average for defense either. Its close, yet so far…

-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.

by PL78 on Sep 8, 2010 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

How? Just include the previous two years of UZR (or 1 1/2 years). Add the numbers up and you can get a UZR/150 or whatever.

If you’re asking “Why,” well, because 1 year of defensive stats not only doesn’t accurately measure a person’s true defensive talent, it probably doesn’t measure their actual 1 year production either.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

Real wars are declared by one government against another government

Since none of this currently exists, perhaps you’re using the wrong metric.

by LowcountryJoe on Sep 8, 2010 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

What Fangraphs doesn't cut it as a government these days? How the mighty have fallen.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

Is Fangraphs aware that someone is at war with it?

More likely, they’re aware that someone is at war with hyperlinks that just happen to be displayed on its home website but have no direct ties to Fangraphs.

by LowcountryJoe on Sep 8, 2010 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

I like the idea. Interesting to see which players were the most valuable without looking at injury time and whatnot.

One thing that could make this a little easier to digest is to extrapolate all the WAR/game figures out to 150 games, like you did with Coco. It keeps your same idea of equalizing all of the playing time for comparison, but it ends up with nicer numbers than “.0041”. It’d also make it easier to eyeball the numbers, as we already know what a good WAR is over a full season.

Also, yes, you can compare WAR from hitters to pitchers, but only because they’re measured in the same units—wins per season. If you break it down to WAR per game, then you’re dividing seasonal WAR for hitters by 150 (or so) and you’re dividing seasonal WAR for pitchers only by 30-ish. Doesn’t really work.

by danmerqury on Sep 8, 2010 9:59 AM PDT reply actions  

Also, it seems odd that Kouzmanoff ranks so highly in WAR,

but UZR thinks he’s the best defensive third baseman in the American League. Wow.

by danmerqury on Sep 8, 2010 10:02 AM PDT reply actions  

why is that odd?

There’s hardly any good defensive 3B in the AL other than Beltre & Longoria, and I’d assume they have a higher 3 year average than Kouz.

Why on earth would anyone use a single season UZR is beyond me, they make it crystal clear that you need 3 full seasons of data for it to be relevant. Fangraphs is really dumb for using single season UZR to calculate WAR.

-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.

by PL78 on Sep 8, 2010 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, it's odd because of how bad he's been with the bat.

Also, the 3-year thing isn’t a magic number or anything. First of all, it’s more like 2.5 years, but the only reason that figure exists is because that’s when the correlation reaches the level of a single season of wOBA or OPS. Doesn’t mean it’s a “good” number all of a sudden—players have flukey full seasons of wOBA all the time.

Also, it’s nice that WAR is based on a single season of data. Introducing a three-year rolling average could cloud things. What if a player got some great coaching over the offseason and legitimately became better at defense? What if he was slightly injured for a year, which sapped his range?

by danmerqury on Sep 8, 2010 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

I have no problems with batting being single year

But defense really needs to be 3 (or 2.5 as you said) rolling. Being injured and having it sap his range actually leans toward it being better for the rolling 3 year average. Its way more common for players to have flukey years on defense, but its a lot harder to have a flukey year with the bat.

-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.

by PL78 on Sep 8, 2010 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

The problem with rolling numbers is that you are trying to get figures for 1 year

not true talent. You want to know with WAR how someone played and not how they are likely to play. Maybe there should be a stat called potential WAR or pWAR that uses xBABIP regressed wOBA and uses UZR/3 years or regressed.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

There is

It’s called “CHONE.”

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

:shakes fist at nemesis:

oh.. not that Chone.

Pam liked my old sig better.

by mikev on Sep 8, 2010 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

lol thats fair.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

I would be fine with that answer

if it weren’t for the fact that when people quote WAR, very often they do so as if it’s true talent, not a one-year assessment. For example, in budget discussions when people take a guy’s current WAR to calculate how he supposedly ought to be paid in his next contract.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 8, 2010 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Fair point

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 8, 2010 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

this is a really good point

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

Really, Really you just said
Why on earth would anyone use a single season UZR is beyond me,

after making this claim

But….Rasmus is already awesome. He plays defense in CF better than anyone we have

Rasmus CF career (2 years) UZR/150 = 4.3

Coco Crips CF last two years UZR/150 = ~20 or Career 8.8

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

SSS for both

FWIW Rasmus passes the sight test with flying colors, and Crisp has played 115 games over the last 2 years. Crisp is probably better on defense, true, but Crisp is such a nonfactor due to injuries I cant take him seriously as a piece to rely on going forward. Rasmus is young and will only get better if only he gets played every day like he should. I mean, fangraphs said he had more trade value than David Wright, think about that.

I dont know why you dont like Rasmus, you are absolutely in the minority on that one. He’s awesome and everyone knows it, get over it.

-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.

by PL78 on Sep 8, 2010 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Wait, what the hell is the sight test?

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Sep 8, 2010 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Its when you watch a guy play defense and he looks like he knows what he's doing.

Sorry, its not very legit because it requires you to actually watch the game like a scout would and not via gameday or just numbers.

Rasmus passes it because he takes good routes the ball and has it in him to make spectacular plays every once in a while. He will play CF for at least 10 years in this league.

Failing the sight test: Eric Byrnes, who’s routes to the ball made me look away in anger, and Jack Cust, who has hands made on concrete and not much of an arm.

-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.

by PL78 on Sep 8, 2010 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Exactly

“Sight test” is inarguable, because it’s 100% personal.

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Sep 8, 2010 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

It doesn't make it useless though, especially in smaller samples

If you have just 5 games to determine how good a guy is at fielding, I’d take the scout’s eye over the numbers.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

But I'm not talking about a scout's eye, I'm saying one of us...

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Sep 8, 2010 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'd take the eye of a scout I respected over numbers at a much larger sample than

5 games, but that doesn’t mean

1) Numbers should get no consideration — i.e. I’d still consider them and ask the scout why he thought there might be differences

2) I’d take the eye of a random or even frequent poster to mean anything.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

This would be a good time for a reminder

that stats like UZR are also based on sight. But instead of being just your sight of the games you watch, it’s the sight of a whole bunch of other people watching a lot more games than you do.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 8, 2010 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

TY

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

This, btw, is part of what limits UZR, isn't it?

Won’t UZR be much more accurate when the human stringers are removed? (It still may not be perfect until positioning and a few other factors are implemented)

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure about that. There are differences between Dewan and UZR

even when both use the same BIS data…ie. the same human stringers.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 5:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well Dewan substitutes his own judgement for the BIS data in certain cases so its different

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Really? That seems useless unless you're a very strong believer

in his judgement, which I’ve no reason to be.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 6:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

This is why I never bother with +/-

What’s the point in an objective metric when Dewan is getting all involved in it? He might be making it better, but like you say, I have no reason to believe he’s actually make the numbers more accurate.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 6:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

This is a perfect explanation of where I stand.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 6:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

You realize that youre calling 5,500 innings of Crisps career a small sample size?

Do you care about the facts at all?

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

haha what?

YOU posted the 2 years totals, now you are using career totals to argue against me?

You are losing your damn mind man. I advise you go outside for a while, because one of us cares way too much about this. Like, really? Im being singled out for thinking Rasmus is a better defender than Crisp? On the scale of annoying this cannot be worse than the multitude of anti-Cust posters. There’s so much more to be annoyed about, this is still an OPINION site, I have my opinion and will post it. I dont care about your parameters (which now apparently change whenever you say so?).

-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.

by PL78 on Sep 8, 2010 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

You really have no reading comprehension:
Rasmus CF career (2 years) UZR/150 = 4.3

Coco Crips CF last two years UZR/150 = ~20 or Career 8.8

Im calling you out not for thinking that Coco is worse than Rasmus (though there is no evidence to suggest this is true). Im calling you out for saying that others shouldn’t do what you did which is use a season and a half of data on Rasmus to say that he is better than Crisp who over his career has been a spectacular CFer.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

Im calling you out not for thinking that Coco is worse than Rasmus (though there is no evidence to suggest this is true). Im calling you out for saying that others shouldn’t do what you did which is use a season and a half of data on Rasmus to say that he is better than Crisp who over his career has been a spectacular CFer.

lol okayyyyyyyyy then :)

-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.

by PL78 on Sep 9, 2010 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

Let's cut out the personal attacks, alright?
He’s awesome and everyone knows it, get over it.

by danmerqury on Sep 8, 2010 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

35 games started is too many for a pitcher

That’d be 175 games for a 5-man rotation even if they never missed a single start.

32 is more accurate.

Also, this is what I was talking about on the other thread. The A’s pitching this season has consisted of one “#1-when-healthy”, 2 #2s, a #3 and a #5 (two actually). But the #1-when-healthy hasn’t really been healthy much. Dunno about you all but a rotation of 2 #2s, a #3 and two #5s qualifies as “disappointing” to me.

Add in the massively disappointing bullpen, and it has not actually been a good year for A’s pitching at all. That doesn’t mean next year can’t be, it just means this year hasn’t been.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 10:22 AM PDT reply actions  

So we can take a little bit off of each pitcher's extrapolated WAR...

It’s still pretty close to what I’ve got up there.

I guess it’s only disappointing if you were expecting them to be awesome. I thought they’d be good and they are good. So I guess I’m satisfied.

by Brett Narloch on Sep 8, 2010 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

You can't really be satisfied with the Anderson injury

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

Of course not.

But I didn’t think Braden or Cahill would be as good as they are either.

by Brett Narloch on Sep 8, 2010 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

Ah the power of low expectations....

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

They're not "good"

The starters are average. The bullpen has been really poor. Combine the two and it’s a well-below-average performance.

It’s being propped up by the gloves of the position players.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Does it really matter, though?

The gloves of the position players aren’t going anywhere.

by danmerqury on Sep 8, 2010 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Yeah, it does

It means it’s much harder to improve the team. It simply isn’t the case that a crap-defense “big bat” will be the savior of the team. Pat Burrell is not riding in on a white horse to save this roster.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hmm.

Didn’t think of that.

by danmerqury on Sep 8, 2010 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

The problem is that people think that replacing Kouz will help the team because of the bat sucks

when really getting a good bat is completely offset by the fact that Cahill turns into a pumpkin when all those grounders to third get through.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

All those grounders?

or just enough of them to turn a solid pitcher into something as space-taking as a pumpkin?

by LowcountryJoe on Sep 8, 2010 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

It wouldn't surprise me that much if Cahill got a lot worse next year.

He could be worse than Mazzaro. I’m not predicting that, but it’s easily possible.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

4.67

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ouch. In Oakland?

That’s like replacement level. Even I’m not THAT bearish on the guy.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

He/she just asked me to throw an ERA out there.

If I had to strategically make an over/under number with a guy who is bullish on Cahill, I’d probably use 4.05.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 5:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Once we know what our defensive alignment will be for next year...

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Sep 8, 2010 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

A good wager would be for one person to take his end of 2010 ERA and another to take his xFIP (or whatever DIPS metric you want to use)

Then split the difference.

Right now his ERA is 2.72. His xFIP is 4.23. Middle ground is 3.48. You take under, let WC take the over.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 5:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

Would anyone take the under on 3.48?

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 6:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Just to make it fun, let’s say 3.50 ERA for 2011 Cahill… I’ll take the under. Pride bet.

by Colorado Fan on Sep 9, 2010 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

Ill take the over on that one

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 9, 2010 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

Banco

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 9, 2010 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

banco?

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 9, 2010 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

"banco" means he wants to bet

the maximum amount that the bank will allow.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 9, 2010 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

Very good!

Wasn’t sure anyone would get that.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 9, 2010 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Comes from some casino game, right?

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 9, 2010 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

Baccarat Chemin-de-Fer

See, e.g.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 9, 2010 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't think he will be worse than Mazzaro

but I also see his peripherals improving to offset his worsening luck.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

The issue I have, though

Is that I don’t believe Kouzmanoff can come close to replicating this year’s UZR ever again. His UZR/ 150 is sitting at 15.3 right now, which is just ridiculously good. I think he’s more the defender BBR thinks he is.

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Sep 8, 2010 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

Nobody has said Pat Burrell is the savior of the team. Nobody has said that a crap-defense "big bat" will save the team.

adding Crawford or Werth at a COF spot next year would be a gigantic megaupgrade.

You really need to stop trying so hard to be a pessimist about this team.

Pam liked my old sig better.

by mikev on Sep 8, 2010 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

I really don't think PT is trying very hard at all

Pessimism comes naturally for some of us.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

I share his pessimism (some might say realism) about this...

rebuilding-going for it cycle. There is very little outside help the A’s can get, especially if you think, like I do, that there’s no way in hell Crawford, Werth, or Beltre are coming to Oakland. They’re pretty much the only people who could help from outside the organization, unless the A’s really screw someone over on a trade.

The internal help was cause for optmism a year ago, but that has now since gone away.

So the pessimism comes from the fact that the A’s will have to get very lucky with a trade, really lucky during the next couple of seasons on the field, or really lucky with the Rangers or Angels imploding for the A’s to make the playoffs before the valuable pieces have to be sold again.

by Brett Narloch on Sep 8, 2010 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't actually think I'm naturally pessimistic about sports

I picked Cal basketball to win the Pac-10 last year in the face of a high percentage of pundits who chose Washington, for instance.

I was optimistic about the A’s entering this season, before the farm system imploded and Anderson got a bunch of recurring, nasty injuries.

I’m just very morose about this particular set of players.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure it's fair to say the farm system "imploded"

A handful of prospects having disappointing seasons (many from guys who are hardly old) is bothersome, but it’s not like everybody had serious injuries (a few, but not too many). I’m not too worried about some of the guys just yet.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Please name one top 15 prospect thats had a good season. It didn't just implode, it got hit by a nuclear bunker buster.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

Grant Green.

And….that’s all I got.

by danmerqury on Sep 8, 2010 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

who has shown he probably cant play short stop

Doesn’t count.

the correct answer is Josh Donaldson is better than they thought.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

That seems odd to me.

Out of college, he was known as a solid SS glove. And Baseball America rated him as our best defensive infielder.

How often does a plus defender find out he can’t cut it at that position in the pros?

by danmerqury on Sep 8, 2010 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

Um well we didn't have any good INFs

also there were a lot of concerns about him not being able to stick. Law was the most adamant about him moving off SS IIRC

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hmm.

Good to know. If he can’t make it at SS, what is he, then? 2B? 3B?

by danmerqury on Sep 8, 2010 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

probably 2B since his arm is lame.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

I could live with that, I suppose.

2B isn’t so bad. And aside from Cardenas (maybe, unless he’s at 3B?), we don’t have a lot of non-disappointing 2B prospects. I’m looking at you, Jemile Weeks.

by danmerqury on Sep 8, 2010 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

we don't have nondisappointing prospects anywhere.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's really a shame, especially about Taylor.

For him to fizzle in AAA like this…is very very bad. The AFL move is a good one for him, I think. As far as the rest, Corey Brown has been alright, I guess.

by danmerqury on Sep 8, 2010 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

Taylor's six-six, so he's big enough.

He’ll do fine in the Arena Football League,

as long as Jon Bon Jovi gets enough scrilla together to start it up again.

Bob Geren was born in a suburban apartment complex he built with his own two hands.

by QueenOfCansAndJars on Sep 8, 2010 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

There's talk of moving him to the outfield

though I could see a double-switch, with him going to 2B and Weeks shifting to the outfield, as well.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Law has been adamant about him moving off SS since college and Law isn't one for changing his opinions often

I’d be more worried if there is a consensus saying he won’t stick at short which there isn’t

by DeJay on Sep 9, 2010 4:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

Exactly

I can’t stand Keith Law

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Sep 9, 2010 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Josh Donaldson's park and luck neutral stats make me very excited for his prospects in the bigs...

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Sep 8, 2010 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think looking at "luck-neutral" hitter stats

can be salutary when you’re trying to dial back expectations on someone, but I’m much less optimistic about extrapolating better performance out of a supposedly “unlucky” player. The facts are that having good “luck” in the minors, vis a vis BABIP in particular, is indicative to some degree of being a better prospect, and that most prospects don’t succeed.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not saying he's the .950+ player his neutral stats would indicate

It just helps to realize that his AVG. + OBP this year aren’t indicative of what we’ll see moving forward most likely.
I think he has the chance to be a good hitting catcher, which to me would mean OPSing around .800 or so…

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Sep 8, 2010 5:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

Whoever gave you that information

Hates you, lied to you and hopes you get shunned by polite society.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 8, 2010 5:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

So you hate Josh Donaldson?

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Nope

I just hate that DFA’s comment is so completely inaccurate.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 8, 2010 6:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

In what way shape or form?

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

You don't know if Green can or can't play SS based on his 2010 play

Accurate information on that subject isn’t readily available to the public. Your implication suggests otherwise.

And Donaldson is still having issues with his defense, has been hurt and has an unimpressive batting line. Doesn’t exactly match the line you gave.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 8, 2010 7:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

Donaldson's defensive reports have been better this year and Ill take an unlucky 803 OPS from a catcher any day

Further, Green entered 2010 with defensive questions and has not ameliorated them at all

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 7:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Every major scouting publication

leaned in favor of Green sticking at SS prior to the 2010 season. Yes, there were questions raised but ultimately folks figured he could stay at short. Unless you stole some Cal League scout’s notebook I don’t see how you could have reliable info to say otherwise at this time.

Did you steal some scout’s notebook? ‘Cause I’d be down with buying you a six-pack for a look.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 8, 2010 7:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Law said he was likely to move last year

so youre using hyperbole for sure

Hes had error problems in college and in the minors like big error problems and no one has said he has average range at best. At best average range plus cant field what you can get to =/= SS

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 8:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

I forgot.

Didn’t we decide that Keith Law is a “fourth analyst”? Or does that only apply when he’s not saying things that helps reinforce your bias against a prospect you don’t like?

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Sep 8, 2010 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

He is. But hes ESPNs draft scout

so saying that every major publication said that Green would stick there is not accurate. Grover’s statement is hyperbole.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

You're right

I should have said every major publication worth spending money on when I made my earlier statement.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 8, 2010 9:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

On the flip side

saying a guy can’t stick at shortstop because one dude (who just so happens to be a fourth analyst) says he can’t is….not so accurate either.

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Sep 8, 2010 10:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

Im not saying it based on Law.

Im saying it because in a year of the minors he hasn’t fixed huge consistency problems which everyone assumed would be fixed when they made the assessments that grover is referring to.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 9, 2010 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

You're making a horribly bad assumption

You’re assuming that he’s going to get dinged because he hasn’t shown consistency before he turns 23. The typical scouting mantra is to give a guy a bit more time than that.

Green had a sore shoulder this year. How much did that exasperate any throwing problems he had? Is there an issue with his range? There are some defensive metrics that suggest there could be, however those numbers are highly unreliable and the folks who watch prospects for a living want/need/crave Mark-1 eyeball scouting reports before making an judgements.

You’re rushing to a conclusion when you don’t have necessary information and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the conclusion looks an awful lot like your pre-conceived notions on the player.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 9, 2010 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

Im hardly making bad assumptions
Green had a sore shoulder this year.

So being hurt is good now?

Look at Beckham in TB, eveyone said he could stick at SS and that his consistency would improve. It hasn’t. Therefore he got dinged.

No one has ever said Green has the kind of range that would allow him to have high error totals because hes getting to a lot of balls that are hard to get to.

Hes 23 in A+, hes not a 19 yo Latin American prospect or a HS draftee. Improved consistency isn’t something that you can take for granted and right now he doesn’t have MLB level consistency at SS. Furthermore if he cant play SS a huge amount of his value is lost.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 9, 2010 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

He had a sore shoulder

It got better.

No surgery involved.

Unless you have medical reports that say otherwise it seems unlikely that the problem will recur and hinder his throwing in the future.

And you’ve made it perfectly clear that you have little if any idea about what folks have said about Green’s range in the past. The key now is to wait and see what folks are going to say about his range in High-A and how things look for the future.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 9, 2010 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

How 's this for hyperbole...

BA’s 2010 Prospect Handbook says he has good range at SS, solid arm and reliable hands. They also said his defense could use refinement.

Sickels didn’t say anything in particular about his range did say “He can definitely play shortstop at the major league level”.

As for the errors, experience should help in that regard although admittedly that is not a guarantee.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 8, 2010 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

How's this for hyperbole
[the farm system] didn’t just implode, it got hit by a nuclear bunker buster.
probably 2B since [Grant Green’s] arm is lame.

by LowcountryJoe on Sep 9, 2010 3:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

PG said he had adequate range but when they revamped the site they put it behind a pay wall

As for the errors, hes gotten a full year of MiLB experience and it hasn’t improved at all, and had the problem in college. If I don’t get to discount his ability to learn consistency now, when do I get to start?

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 9, 2010 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'd say after the second year

The first professional year may or may not mean a whole lot in the long run and part of that first year IS about learning that consistency, I’d think.

If he goes through 2011 with the same problems, then I’d put more stock in the criticisms in general. Right now he’s just completing his first full year in the organization and working with people on improving as he adjusts to the pro game.

Last of the Ninth - Photography

by Flashfire on Sep 9, 2010 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

He's 22 years old

And he hasn’t quite finished his first full season of pro ball. Yet here you are proclaiming this is as good as he’s going to get and there’s no more room for improvement with the glove. That’s a foolish position to take considering the lack of current scouting reports.

And since you’re being a stickler on point… I don’t give a damn what PG said about Green 2 years ago. You said that no one even gave Green average marks for his range. Baseball America, possibly the most widely read prospect resource in the world, said he had “good range” in their 2010 Handbook.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 9, 2010 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

Im proclaiming he probably cant stick

nor am I saying he cant improve. Im saying that hes running out of time and his current level of consistency isn’t ML quality.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 9, 2010 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

He's 22 years old

Not a lot of 22 year old baseball players have ML quality consistency.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 9, 2010 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

Im saying that his offensive season was offset by his defensive season.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 9, 2010 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

Calling Green's season a disappointment is ridiulous

The jury was out whether he would stay at short coming into the season and the jury is still out. Law still thinks he won’t stick and Callis still thinks he will. I don’t think much has changed on that front. On the other hand he has had an excellent season with the bat and easily cemented himself as a top 50 MLB prospect. I don’t see how that can be considered a disappointment in anyones book.

by DeJay on Sep 9, 2010 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions  

Are you concerned about the 113/36 K/BB ratio?

I like Green, but both those scare me a bit.

A's Fan in Sweden

by travdog6 on Sep 9, 2010 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

Dude had a 3:1 k/BB ratio which is a huge red flag

and hit in Stockton. He didn’t play good defense and yes he will probably be a top 50 spec because of the dearth of SS prospects and graduations. I would give him the same grade or slightly less this year as last year which is disappointing.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 9, 2010 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

My whole point is that them all having one bad season is NOT imploding

It sucks, to be sure, but it’s still just one season. A lot of the guys had injuries that shouldn’t affect them next year. Very few had the catastrophic injury.

If a prospect has a few good years followed by one bad year, it’s no reason to write him off. Just because that happened…a lot.. .well, that strikes me more as a freak coincidence than anything else.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 5:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

Freak coincidence, but a bad freak coincidence....like

all prospects getting hit by lightning.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's bad, but it's not like all (or some) of those guys can't or won't bounce back next year

I just think it looks worse because so many had down years.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 6:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

How sure are we that Ellis will be back next year?

I thought that was a wide open question.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 8, 2010 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

Why? To sabremetricians, it's wide open. To the A's it might not be

His hitting, yes. But that’s the Kouz prob again. His defense? I can’t tell for sure because prior to this year I just didn’t get to see enough A’s games to know for sure what his range was, but I admit, a few times I’ve said to myself “Ellie would have gotten that”, except it was Ellie… He still turns a slick DP, and many many ML 2nd basemen don’t. We’ve all seen how well this infield works, and we know BB likes him. I think they try to get him to take less than the option and try not to insult him too badly in the process, and…

He’s back…

"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins

by justANotherAsFan on Sep 8, 2010 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

That was not a rhetorical question. I really want to know.

I haven’t followed all the hints and press releases from the A’s, so maybe I’ve missed something.

Seriously: Do we think the A’s will bring back Ellis in 2011, either by exercising the option or by declining it and negotiating a new contract?

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 8, 2010 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, there's the "bring back the same 25 guys" comment

Which of course was not meant literally, but I get the feeling Ellis is part of that.

Still, his offense is declining to the point where I don’t think there’s going to be much of a market for him. Seems more likely they decline the option and sign him to a $3M deal (with a 2012 option or something).

I think a better indication will come once Sacramento’s season is over. If Sogard is up and getting a couple weeks of playing time, he might be the chosen stopgap until Weeks or someone else is ready/healthy.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not expecting much from Weeks at this point. He's not even waited

till he gets to Oakland before getting hurt every year. He was no better than a B prospect to begin with.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Actually,

what galls me about the A’s training staff is not its failure to keep major leaguers (many of whom were acquired precisely because they were cheap because they couldn’t stay healthy) healthy, it’s the utter failure to keep supposedly robust young minor leaguers healthy. Other than Grant Green, who will undoubtedly suffer some stupid calf strain or something next year, you have to go back to Huston Street to find a first-round pick who did not spend large parts of at least one minor-league season on the disabled list.

Just think about that. The A’s had, in that time, 10 first-round picks. One of them did not spend half a season or more on the DL. One! And it was Huston Street, who barely spent any time in the minors at all.

There is something systematically unhealthy about the way the A’s minors are run. Players with no injury history whatsoever come in and immediately start falling victim to injury after injury the instant the A’s lay hands on them. Quite frankly, if baseball allowed it, they’d be well-served to contract out their minor leagues to the Marlins, or something, and scrap the in-house development process completely at this point.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 9:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think its been part of the drafting phillosphy to ignore injuries in college though

Weeks was hurt a bunch at Miami

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 9:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Interesting that you suggest the Marlins

The Fish had 11 1st round picks in the same time frame. Not counting the 6 weeks Matt Dominguez missed due to mono…

Only Chris Volstad, Chris Coghlan and Jacob Marceaux have spent less than a month on the DL during any particular season. Coghlan though played most of a season with a hernia injury that required him to have surgery once they finally shut him down. Kyle Skipworth would have spent more than the month he missed with a hyper-extended elbow if the minor league staff had shut him down when he originally injured himself. Instead he played on for weeks.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 8, 2010 10:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

sorry. I thought it was rhetorical

I’ve got no idea what they will do, but I think he’s one of Billy’s faves and I go with that as my gut. (Along with the same 25 guys comment) Whether he’s enough of a fave for Billy to just blow the extra $2.5-3Mill (I can’t remember the exact number and I’ve got too many replies to get to …) in order not to insult the guy by declining his option, I dunno.

I think w/r/t the infield, “Don’t Rock The Boat” is probably their entrance song. They really are very good defensively, and there’s a lot of baseball ‘wisdom’ about 2B/SS chemistry. It seems like Penny and Ellie do have chemistry.

How many Mendoza’s the A’s can afford and still compete seems to be the problem.

"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins

by justANotherAsFan on Sep 8, 2010 6:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Paul, please provide the metrics you are using to pronounce the staff 'well-below-average'

If you mean that, then would you take a league average pitching staff (that doesn’t play half its games in the Coliseum) and put it in front of our defense and expect better results?

Say, for example, which staff you’d be willing to trade our ‘well-below-average’ pitching staff for? Complete staff trade. Of course, youth is part of the hope that the staff will get better still, but ignore that and just use the stats: whose staff would you trade for, straight up, that is league average as a whole so far, using only the metrics you’re using to pronounce us ‘well-below-average’, and why.

I think your pessimism about this team’s near-term chances are well-founded, but only because: 1) BB will not ‘overpay’ to get an elite FA to come here (it just isn’t the moneyball way), and 2) in order to acquire those needed bats by trade, he would have to weaken the pitching staff…

I think you’ve let your pessimism about the future translate to undervaluing what we do actually have.

If the stats you’re using are predictive, yes, it’s possible that each and every one of our pitchers will be expected to look worse if they stop pitching half their games in the Coliseum, and we have very few flamethrowers (which is not the only way a pitcher can be ‘good’) except Bailey and HotRod.

Because, bottom line: all the ‘dumb’-but-actual stats which measure defense as a whole, such as total runs allowed, put Oakland #1 as a defensive whole, and some of that must be pitching…

"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins

by justANotherAsFan on Sep 8, 2010 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

tRA dude.... its a mighty good stat

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ok, fine, tRA.

But the problem with every stat that tries to quantify defense-independent pitching quality, is that it is dependent on defensive stats, which must be subtracted. The creators of those very defense stats recognize that there are issues with them- i’ve read through innumerable discussions on fangraphs re UZR, UZR+ etc etc, and they just aren’t good enough yet for real-time evaluation of a defender. I suppose you could make the case that they’re better for evaluating a defense as a whole, but correct me if I am misreading this:

bq.If you aggregate the tRA outcomes (K, BB, HBP, HR, + batted balls), and apply run/out values, you end up with expected runs (xR) and expected outs (xO). We can easily convert this to runs per nine innings by taking xR/xO*27. That’s tRA. Note that it is not on the familiar ERA scale, as I believe a defensive neutral statistic should expect defenders to have a league average error rate. League average tRA is typically in the high 4s.

So, let’s look at team tRA: OK, I can’t find it, not on fangraphs.

"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins

by justANotherAsFan on Sep 8, 2010 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

tERA.

It’s on Fangraphs, and it’s on an ERA scale.

by danmerqury on Sep 8, 2010 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Is it given by team?

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

I may be extra slow, but I went to 'teams'

and then to ‘pitching’, and it isn’t there, where I can compare teams, not on ANY of the subtabs under pitching. So, where?

"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins

by justANotherAsFan on Sep 8, 2010 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hmm.

Looks like it’s not.

by danmerqury on Sep 8, 2010 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

statcorner has team tRA sort of, they split it up by Rotation and Bullpen

The A’s rotation has a 4.40 tRA (6 runs above average) and the pen 4.70 (8 runs below average). The hitters are at 15 runs below average. So that means it’s the defense that’s keeping this team afloat.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

I like Statcorner's site since its fully in tRA

but tRA is actually independent of defensive stats since its an aggregate of every batted ball profiles result compared to expected runs matrix therefore it has to have average defense.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

yes, but

I think tRA is probably the best we currently have, but, because it is context-(and fielding)-independent it is not actually measuring performance. Nor was it actually designed to do so, according to it’s maker: StatCorner: tRA Primer it is measuring the various results of a PA against the average result and it is then regressed to the mean in a specific order.

It’s worth remembering that the A’s pitchers are aware they are pitching in front of the A’s defense. They often seem to be trying to induce a double-play grounder with men on base. Why not, if they have confidence in the D? So, this makes them not-so-good as pitchers?

"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins

by justANotherAsFan on Sep 8, 2010 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Whose defense is so bad that a ground ball pitcher wouldn't try to

induce grounders? Even in 2009 the A’s tried to induce grounders from what I can tell — at least Cahill and Anderson did. I don’t see any evidence that having “confidence in the D” has anything to do with a pitcher’s approach. Can you point me to something?

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 5:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

extra high FIP vs. ERA for most of the staff, vs. extra low BABIP for most of the staff

With Cahill an extreme outlier.

Will that do?

I mean, BABIP is only supposed to vary about .007 per SD, the A’s are at .280 as a staff which is 3 SD off the top of my head…

"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins

by justANotherAsFan on Sep 8, 2010 6:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Doesn't that just mean they have a good defense?

Where does it show that ground ball pitchers with a crappy defense don’t try to induce ground balls?

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

This doesn't really make sense

Trades are done in the anticipation of future value. They also have a lot to do with player salaries. Neither of those has much to do with performance this season. It’s kind of an ill-posed problem.

Also, am I just trading the five starters, or am I trading the pitchers in the minor leagues too? Does Jeremy Hellickson come with the Rays rotation?

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

I had a reply but it's lost somewhere further down the thread.

I’m a dweeb sometimes, posting-wise. My pRA is below replacement value.

My question was poorly phrased: if the A’s pitching staff performance is ‘well-below-average’, and the expected skills of these pitchers are also not so hot, based on the predictive stats (which haven’t been proven to me to be all that much more predictive than the dumb stats, actually), then there must be better staffs out there once you subtract the defense.

Name a league-average staff, based on the same stats that you are using to call the A’s staff ‘well-below-average’, and I’ll go study them, to try to get a handle on your assertion.

If you are using any of the following metrics, I’d remind you that they were all invented to attempt to provide better predictive value than ERA for the purposes of evaluating trades (especially fantasy trades). They aren’t actually designed to provide a true evaluation of current performance: FIP, xFIP, tRA.

If you’re using any of wPA, etc, in my opinion they are all tainted by issues with UZR. I don’t think we’re there yet…

"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins

by justANotherAsFan on Sep 8, 2010 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

This is incorrect
They aren’t actually designed to provide a true evaluation of current performance: FIP, xFIP, tRA.

At least Dave Cameron disagrees with you:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pitcher-win-values-explained-part-two

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Sep 8, 2010 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

they were all designed to provide better methods of 'valuing' performance than ERA

Try ‘Sabremetrics Library’. I had to go there, because I couldn’t get a definitional page for xFIP on fangraphs:

Expanding on FIP, xFIP realizes that some pitchers may be incredibly (un)lucky on their Home Run per Fly ball (HR/FB) rates in a given year, while starting pitchers should expect that rate to be around 10.6%. Theoretically, this should be a better predictor of a pitcher’s future ERA.

i.e., it predicts more accurately, as does FIP: predicts, doesn’t describe.

tRA:

Building on FIP, tRA includes batted ball types, namely line drives, ground balls, and the different types of fly balls. By assigning expected run and out values, tRA correlates better with following-year Runs Allowed per nine innings than any of the other advanced metrics.

Again, it is a tool designed to predict. It is not a tool designed to describe…

All three are used to attempt to untangle defense from a pitcher’s known dumb-stat results, in an attempt to value the pitcher for predictive purposes: to wit, to attempt to divine what sort of ERA he might be expected to have next year…

"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins

by justANotherAsFan on Sep 8, 2010 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

Okay, I still don't understand what you're asking for, like, at all

I know I’m citing the Rays for this no matter what, so… the Rays. Study them. They’re better than Oakland. Yet not particularly great.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

OK... what don't you understand? You say our pitching has been below average

Based on this artificial stat, tRA, that attempts to separate pitching from defense.

Looks like the best tRA total (for both rotation and pen) in the AL I’ve looked at so far is on the Chicago WhiteSox. So, therefore, if they had our defense (and by extension our hitting), they’d be unstoppable!

So, therefore, if we had their pitching, and our hitting and defense, WE’d be unstoppable!

Which leads to the somewhat illogical conclusion that it’s not our hitting that is the problem (since the poor hitting is sort of closely correlated with the great fielding, given that there are so few great hitters who are also good fielders)…

Instead it is our ‘well-below-average’ pitching that is holding us back.

Actually, since the team totals for RAA are calculated in runs, not wins, I think we are, by tRA stats, very close to average. That does correlate with reality.

For funzies, you should look at the Mariners’ hitting at StatCorner. We think we are terrible (and we are), but, wow…

"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins

by justANotherAsFan on Sep 8, 2010 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think that's correct

Trade the A’s pitching for the White Sox pitching and I believe that Oakland would be a playoff team, based on incredible run prevention.

And yes, the A’s are not nearly the worst-hitting team in the majors.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

Let's git 'er dun, then!

Think Ken Williams would bite?

"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins

by justANotherAsFan on Sep 8, 2010 6:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

Beane's head off maybe

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 6:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't think so

He’s (Kenny Wms’) not the brightest bulb in the closet…

"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins

by justANotherAsFan on Sep 8, 2010 6:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Count the ring

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

A lot of good ideas came out of

Moneyball, but also some bad ones. On the worst, I think, is the “Kenny Williams is stupid” mantra.

It’s just Lewis’s spin for the sake of the story and not anything Beane ever would opine, it’s inaccurate, it’s mean, and it has been counterproductive.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 8, 2010 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

yep.

"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins

by justANotherAsFan on Sep 8, 2010 6:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

Here's another ironic thought for you

I think, based on recent performance, that it’s just possible Billy lost his Mojo because he outed his sabremetric secret (OBP) qand had to come up whith another one (Injuries).

I also think it’s just as possible that many clubs were doing the same things, but Billy had to ‘spill the Beanes’. Meaning: not the smartest GM ever, more like the dumbest GM ever. After all, if you had a super secret way to evaluate ballplayers and you were a small market team and it was working for you, and some cotton pickin’ journalist figured it out and approached you, would you cooperate with him?

I wouldn’t either…

"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins

by justANotherAsFan on Sep 8, 2010 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

"you" (meaning Beane) have no morals

But, does he have a genius rep amongst all GM’s?

theo is Beane with money.

How do the Twins do it? They are every bit as ‘small market’ as us, although they’ve now got the new stadium. Which we would have too, if we supported the team’s success at a league average rate: wPA (for weighted Park Attendance) has to be the lowest in the majors…

"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins

by justANotherAsFan on Sep 8, 2010 7:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Weighted park attendence?

More like wUTGAPMTPCFNR (weighted unwillingness to give away public money to private corporations for no return).

I admit that I don’t expect that stat to catch on in the near future.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 9:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

I say it every time I hear my alarm clock

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin

by Helloooo 1st on Sep 8, 2010 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

It was hardly "super-secret".

I don’t think Lewis gave away much that wasn’t already getting away.


“Baseball secrets are the most fleeting of all. I hope you and I have exchanged something more permanent.”

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 8, 2010 7:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

not to the average fans

So I guess you’re right- the GMs all knew what he was doing, so what’s the harm, right?

I tend to think the smart GMs knew.

Now the dumb ones know, too.

Any edge is helpful, when you haven’t got league average money to play with…

"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins

by justANotherAsFan on Sep 8, 2010 7:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

It wasn't super-secret

Believe it or not, Theo Epstein and Andrew Friedman did not have to read Moneyball to realize how offense works. The A’s were already shifting away from a bunch of John Jaha/Olmedo Saenz types by the time it came out.

To the extent there was any super-secret tech in that book, it related to the A’s’ ability to properly evaluate defense using UZR-equivalents.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 8:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

People are forgetting that "this year"

had a lot of Ben Sheets getting the crap kicked out of him, and a lot of bullsh*t giveaway innings pitched by people like Bonser and Bowers and Edwar Ramirez.

Hopefully, next year, there won’t be so many garbage innings to pitch, nor any seriously subpar starters in the rotation (like an ailing Ben Sheets)

Bob Geren was born in a suburban apartment complex he built with his own two hands.

by QueenOfCansAndJars on Sep 8, 2010 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

There are always garbage innings getting eaten by garbage. This is the nature of baseball.

Every team has them and saying we should ignore the A’s doesn’t make their pitchers more valuable relative to the league in real life, but rather is just a lie that some tell themselves to make them feel better.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

Damn, there's some serious a-hole-ness going on these days.

It’s too bad, because some people are really missing the whole idea of “Baseball” and the fun/joy it brings to a lot of AN posters.

Your personal “lie” is saying that the A’s Starting Pitching staff is “average” or “disappointing”… When, if you actually look and watch 162 games of A’s Baseball, you will see the youngest Starting Pitching Staff doing really, really well against talented baseball players. Heaven forbid that their FIP or tERA doesn’t match up with their actual ERA and/or WHIP. You could (and maybe you would enjoy) critique every single player this way if you really dig deep enough. What a nightmare (if you ask me).

Hopefully next year there won’t be as much “garbage” as this year. I could actually see this happening with players maturing an addition year (Anderson, Cahill, Gio, Braden, Mazzaro, Henry Rodriguez), and with post-TJ guys like Devine, Outman, and FDLS improving the depth of the bullpen.

by Colorado Fan on Sep 8, 2010 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

15 posts in and already someone is instigating meta-bullshit

I’m going to start keeping track of this disruptive behavior for future statthreads, because it seems important.

Thankfully, you don’t actually get to impose your own idea of what “the whole idea of baseball” is on other people.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

When you do collect that data,

I hope you’ll also try to identify what phrases are likely to trigger it.

In this case, I’ll bet it wouldn’t have happened if DFA hadn’t insinuated that to enjoy Oakland pitching this year is “a lie that some tell themselves to make them feel better”.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 8, 2010 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

He did no such thing.

He insinuated that ignoring the “garbage innings” thrown by A’s pitchers such as Sheets, Bonser, Bowers, Ramirez, etc is a lie to make the A’s pitching look better.

It is.

Pam liked my old sig better.

by mikev on Sep 8, 2010 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

dude.

“…but rather is just a lie that some tell themselves to make them feel better.”

Anyone reading that (except PT, DFA, and defenders of PT/DFA) would substitute “some” for “QueenOfCansAndJars”. You are a defender, which is why you try not to see such things.

by Colorado Fan on Sep 8, 2010 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's not a lie.

There were a lot of garbage innings pitched in a lot of lopsided games.

Better teams than the A’s lost less lopsided games, therefore giving less innings to quad-A long relievers in blowouts.

Anyway, you boys seem to like to argue, so don’t let me stop you. Call me if anyone needs an ambulance.

Bob Geren was born in a suburban apartment complex he built with his own two hands.

by QueenOfCansAndJars on Sep 8, 2010 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

Are you an ambulance driver?

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 6:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

My roommate is!

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Sep 8, 2010 7:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hardly. I call out PT and DFA on shit just as much as I call out anyone else.

However since they’re either usually A) Correct, or B) Able to talk about what they are saying coherently, it’s generally not a common occurance.

You have no idea how “anyone” reading what DFA posted would subsitute “some” for “QueenOfCansAndJars.” You want to attack DFA, so you see it that way yourself.

Pam liked my old sig better.

by mikev on Sep 8, 2010 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

Doesn’t matter to me. Those guys go off with snarky remarks like this all the time… 99.9% of their shit I usually ignore. This one got to me because I’ve been on the end of one of those “lie” remarks before. I enjoy most of what these guys say about baseball, but now I’m almost convinced that PT/DFA are in the same basement together, laughing and prodding each other to take digs at anyone who gets in their way, i.e. doesn’t look at the “facts” before making an off cuff remark on a blog about a bunch of men playing a kids game.

by Colorado Fan on Sep 9, 2010 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

I don't think that's flag-worthy

but I do think it’s utterly laughable. Anyone who pays close attention will know that DFA and I frequently disagree about things and I challenge anyone to find a single instance of either of us “prodding” the other to “take digs” at someone.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 9, 2010 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

As for the prodding to take digs part, obviously we won't see them here...

…if the two of you are in the same basement talking to each other about it!

Last of the Ninth - Photography

by Flashfire on Sep 9, 2010 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

That's true

It’s actually a problem on online poker sites, where outside-of-game collusion among players gives them an unfair advantage.

They have software to detect suspicious betting patterns. In this case, I think we’ll have to rely on the good old-fashioned maxim “don’t be friggin’ ridiculous.”

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 9, 2010 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

This can't possibly be true

DFA insists he doesn’t live in his mom’s basement anymore.

Pam liked my old sig better.

by mikev on Sep 9, 2010 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

Under this construction PT lives in my mom's basement and I believer there is a very good joke waiting to be told there.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 9, 2010 5:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

awesome

Member 207
1 Flag

Kind of a bummer, actually.

by Colorado Fan on Sep 9, 2010 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

It was your depiction of PT and DFA

as kids in a basement plotting to make digs at others on AN.

Personally, I thought it was no big deal, but it does border on “personal attack”.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 9, 2010 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

isn’t this like a running joke or something

by Colorado Fan on Sep 10, 2010 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

you being a dick and then saying it is way different from a friendly saying it.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 10, 2010 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

one that you know about

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 9, 2010 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

yeah Im pretty sure Ive flagged Colorado Fan more than once in the past.

Its a part of my let the system work campaign.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 9, 2010 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

yeah

I’m actually bummed it’s only 1 flag. I hope it’s more, but I don’t really say much ‘round here anymore. I just can’t deal with people being holier than thou on this blog. These keyboard bullies are too much.

by Colorado Fan on Sep 9, 2010 4:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

people being holier than thou on this blog

You mean people who say things like this?

some people are really missing the whole idea of "Baseball" and the fun/joy it brings to a lot of AN posters

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 9, 2010 11:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Really, Mike, I'm only interested in the data, not the intent.

In this context, I don’t give a hoot what he meant to say nor how readers ought to have interpreted it. All I’m interested in is knowing what phrases correlate with prompting outbursts that turn into the ugly and boring arguments that you and I both hate to see. Once we know what phrases tend to trigger those, we can avoid using them.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 8, 2010 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

I would like at this juncture to strongly horrifically unfair characterization of my post

I never ever ever said or would say

that to enjoy Oakland pitching this year is "a lie that some tell themselves to make them feel better

What gives people pleasure is their own business and I will not tell anyone how to feel.

What I did say is that eliminating garbage innings and garbage pitchers from one team and the comparing it to the rest of the league without doing the same to them and calling it above league average is a lie. I stand behind that.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Correction noted.

I didn’t mean to put words in your mouth, and I guess in my skimming I missed the significance of the garbage innings stuff. I just saw the word “lie” and speculated it may be connected to the outburst that followed.

As I noted above, I’m really only interested in phrase correlation here, in order to give us all a tool that will help us avoid future tedious arguments.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 8, 2010 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

I can't tell you how tired I am of the "stat people don't watch the games" meme.

It drives me crazy.

Just because someone suggests that, for instance, Cahill’s performance this season has been severely aided by luck and by an excellent defense and that, as the numbers show, he’s been more around average than around great this year, does not mean that they don’t watch the games.

"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau

by King Richard on Sep 8, 2010 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yes, they watch the games

I don’t mean to drive you crazy…

But I really don’t believe that the stat-heads here on AN have ever played the game at a level that allows them to see why someone is overachieving their FIP, for example. They say “Luck”. I say there is more to it than that, like movement on pitches. As a pitcher, you want to make a ball look like a strike. And make a strike look like a ball. A hitter as .001 seconds to make that decision, and there in lies the difference between an average pitcher and an elite pitcher. There is more to this game than luck.

There is an actual Human Element to the game, and I really don’t see a lot of “Human-ness” around this particular “Diary”. I guess I could just stay away, but what fun is that.

by Colorado Fan on Sep 8, 2010 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Right because those of us who have played the game never had to play in a freezing cold windy ass Daily City and have rockets off the bat get turned into outs

or had a bad hop at SS.

No one who has ever played the game is ever superstitious about their luck.

Noooooooooooooooooooooo, Never

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

Daly City

And It’s a tough place to play baseball.

by Colorado Fan on Sep 8, 2010 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

so is the Coliseum

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

Have you played in the majors?

No, I’m guessing?

Then you don’t understand the dynamics behind FIP on some personal-experience level, either.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

turn it green

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 5:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm pretty sure all sides are in agreement about
… have ever played the game at a level that allows them to see …

I think we all acknowledge that those who have participated in the game learn to see the game differently.

I think the real disagreement is whether that additional sight is more accurate or less. Individuals who have played the game tend to be more superstitious, for example. Are they correct in believing their various rituals help them to get better results? Some believe they are incorrect, and think similarly about other less obviously incorrect beliefs of players; and therefore these individuals deliberately seek to remove common player perceptions from their analyses. That is intentional.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 8, 2010 4:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

There is a such thing as being too close to the situation

Some saying about a forest and trees, too.

This is not to say that players never have any insight we don’t, but that they don’t necessarily know better.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 5:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

They most probably know better if they're open minded about considering

all the facts and then overlaying their personal experience over that.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 5:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

True

However, considering that baseball takes a population which is not preselected for intelligence, then actually incents them to discount learning in favor of physical fitness, it’s not surprising that relatively few players meet this definition.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 9:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

you forgot Meloan! :-P

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Wait, did he have TJ also?

HFS.

Pam liked my old sig better.

by mikev on Sep 8, 2010 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

HFS?

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

Heilige ficken scheiße

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 8, 2010 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

Don't forget Arnold Leon : /

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

Leon had TJS too?!?

Piss f*ck sh*t

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Sep 8, 2010 7:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

Guess how many of John Sickels' top 16 A's prospects have sustained serious injuries this season?

Give up?

The answer is nine, including six of the post-Desme top 10.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 9:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

Jesus H Christ

That is disgusting.
Let me guess:
1. Weeks
2. Figueoroa
3. Leon
4. Ross
5. Ynoa
6. Doolittle
Who are the other 3?

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Sep 9, 2010 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

Cardenas, Taylor, and Donaldson

Cardenas and Taylor both started the season very slowly because of spring injuries. Donaldson missed virtually the entire month of August and currently has under 100 games played on the season.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 9, 2010 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

Oh yeah

I almost put Cardenas and Donaldson down, but then didn’t cuz I was trying to do it off the top of my head and couldn’t recall their injuries.
And who knows if Taylor has even recovered yet.
Ugh.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, this is absolutely unacceptable.

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Sep 9, 2010 9:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hey, think of it this way

When you’ve had as many guys undergo TJS as the A’s have, surely someone has to come back and not suck, right?

Okay, I’m clutching at straws here.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

In fact we could develop an expertise in TJ rehabilitation such that all pitchers

will want to have the procedure right after they sign. Free agents will willingly sign with the A’s for the opportunity to participate in this system.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 6:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ok, I don't mean this question to be disrespectful

But do you know just how good our defense has been?
If you do, using defensive metrics, just how much the defense has bailed out the pitching, for the most part. This is why our team FIPs and tERAs have such severe differentials to our ERAs and WHIPS, etc.
Just, for a minute, imagine we didn’t have one of the best defensive CFs, 1Bman, SS, 2Bman, and 3Bman.
Replace them with league average or worse, and I think you would be just as frustrated with the performance of the starting pitching this year…

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Sep 8, 2010 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

I believe that Defensive Stats are being overrated by Sabre-heads

…especially in the past 5-10 years. How is that working for Z in Seattle? How’s it working for Beane in Oakland?

- I believe in good scouting reports putting defenders in a fielding position to make them successful.

- I believe that a “good defender” probably makes a play more often than a “average defender” about 1-2 times/week. At the end of the day, rarely do those plays keep a team from winning, or save a team from losing.

- Out of the 27 outs a team can get on any given night, those same plays are being made routinely by other players who hold MLB petigrees.

Hide your bad defenders in LF/RF. If you have an average 2B and a below average 2B, put the guy with a better bat in the lineup, because they’ll both make the plays they are supposed to make.

by Colorado Fan on Sep 8, 2010 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Where does this come from?
I believe that a "good defender" probably makes a play more often than a "average defender" about 1-2 times/week. At the end of the day, rarely do those plays keep a team from winning, or save a team from losing.

And what about a great defender vs a horrible defender? Why ignore the work people are doing to actually count the plays made and balls not caught or fielded?

Why not keep an open mind and look at actual information before forming beliefs?

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

He's actually right

Making one more defensive play a week is what separates Delmon Young from Ryan Sweeney as a fielder.

It’s also worth about 2 wins a season. He’s right about the quantity of plays, just wrong about their impact on player value.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not saying there isn't a pair of players that are separated by one play per week

I’m saying that one should not assume this without looking at actual information. It’s much more likely that there are players over a range of effectiveness than just “good” and “bad”. Since you reckon that the difference between Sweeney and Delmon is 2 wins, there might be others who are separated by 1 win, 0.5 wins or some other number. It’s also instructive to know which players are how good.

Simply making an assumption that you can guesstimate the quality and importance of defense of any particular player better than a system that is based on a whole bunch of guys doing that for every play and scrubbing the data at the end before presenting it seems to not be of an open mind.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

I totally agree

I just had this discussion over at minorleagueball regarding none other than Delmon Young himself. It’s a tangent in a thread about power and low strikeouts.

Humans are good at process evaluations of defense, but very poor at outcome evaluations of defense. Arguably, it’s the opposite for pitching and hitting.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'd definitely underrate funny looking hitters -- Stan Musial, Hank Aaron

Boy did they have ugly swings. Now that Dane Iorg. His swing was sure pretty.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

This is why being a hitting (or pitching) coach at a lower level would be...well...weird

How in the hell can anybody really know when to fix a guy’s swing? Some guys look like they don’t have a clue and hit their way to the majors. Others do everything by the book and can’t hack it.

Any high school coach would tell Craig Counsell to stop batting like a dumbass, yet he’s had a 15-year career (though I think he stopped with the silly stance).

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 6:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think you have to let them hit a wall, if for no other reason

they’ll become teachable.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 6:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

You're using your fandom to diminish the years of work by brilliant baseball minds

And it’s just plain incorrect.
Reason it’s not working for Z?
Because his defense, for the most part, has been average, and his hitters suck.
Beane?
It’s because the hitters suck, our defense has kept us around.
It’s really difficult to have a discussion here with you when you’re not willing to understand the purpose advanced metrics serve.

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Sep 8, 2010 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

OK

Sorry, I just don’t believe strongly defensive statistics. I probably never will, and it makes WAR a meaningless stat for me. I believe the A’s are strong defensively, but to take away what the pitchers have done this year and to give a ton of credit to the Defense of our Infield… Well, that is just plain difficult to comprehend considering I can’t think of another pitching staff I would rather have over the next 5 years (w/ our payroll).

by Colorado Fan on Sep 8, 2010 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not saying our pitching staff os untalented

And I will watch with excitement as they continue to develop.
They can get a lot better, is all I’m saying…

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Sep 8, 2010 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

And they should

Which will probably make our defenders look better, too. Just sayin.

by Colorado Fan on Sep 8, 2010 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

You have a right to your opinion, but "just plain difficult to comprehend"

doesn’t sound like you’re open to being convinced otherwise by additional information.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 5:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

It really bugs me that "hard to understand" has become a synonym for "untrue" or "unreliable."

It’s amazing that people even believe in any science at all sometimes.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Have you talked to people in America? They don't believe in science.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 6:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Then I really don't understand why everybody got all worked up over health care

If I felt the way some do (“I don’t understand it so I don’t trust it!”), I’d never, ever go to a doctor.

Note: This is not a political health care policy post.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

She blinded me with that stuff.

It was poetry in motion.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 8, 2010 6:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

I must be in the minority

Most of the stats people here are pretty good with the numbers. I’m not. I’d love to be able to come up with a stat or run these studies or even put together the awesome graphs that some post. But just because I can’t do all the math doesn’t mean I reject it all. I still favor logical, rational thought. I still respect the ability of the numbers to represent reality.

But most importantly, I can still understand what the numbers are telling me. I don’t need to be able to do the calculations. It’s the same way I trust physics when everything I learned in my junior year of high school has long been replaced by baseball stats and lines from The West Wing.

I wish more people could find the middle ground. Nobody expects someone to be a math expert.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 6:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

Which is good, because almost no one is an expert in math

or anything else. A lay person should be able to accept findings that they themselves cannot reproduce. Otherwise no one would take pills or drive cars.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yet how come when it comes to baseball stats

People lose their minds over math that isn’t even THAT complicated.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

When you ask people to accept something

on faith rather than from understanding it, then they need to decide whom they consider to be a more reliable authority. They might choose to “just accept” Tom Tango’s word or Joe Morgan’s, and from their point of view it’s not obvious which one it should be.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 8, 2010 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's not obvious from my point of view either

So I ask questions and read things. I don’t hide behind “my eyes tell me all your fancy cipherin’ is hogwash, so I’m gonna wash my hogs with it”.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 6:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

I believe it was Richard Dawkins who said that the huge amount of college degrees we've given out in the last few decades

have outpaced the number of people who have the capability for critical, rational, scientific thought. As a result, we’re getting a lot of people who have very high educations who are lacking in terms of logical thought. It’s a really interesting idea.

by danmerqury on Sep 8, 2010 6:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

So is Dawkins one of the people with advanced

degrees who’s not capable of critical, rational or scientific thought?

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 6:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

I really like Dawkins' bio stuff but his religion stuff is pretty terrible.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 6:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think it's true, too (though I know Dawkins is a very controversial, polarizing figure).

Mainly because I grade the papers of adult college students who do not have critical thinking skills.

Pretty good article that talks about it mostly in the context of writing.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 6:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

College degrees are really about

credentialing, not about education per se. Otherwise, students would be giving grades to the schools, not vice versa.

The real harm in giving out too many degrees is not the damage it does to education, but rather the erosion of the credentialing signal, forcing institutions to look for higher degrees as credentials instead, which diverts further resources into unproductive schooling and ultimately will break the credentialing system altogether.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 8, 2010 6:43 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

I agree with this.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 6:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

OMG!

Someone agrees with me about higher education! and that someone is DFA!

The apocalypse is surely at hand!

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 8, 2010 6:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

I also agree

The credential is supposed to be a sign of some level of expertise, but it’s really not.

I’ve found that even an MA isn’t worth very much. People want more than that now.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 7:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think it's not a sign of

any absolute level of expertise. Its value is as a signal that separates one group from another. If all students achieved the level of expertise or if none did, then it has no worth.

Too many people getting degrees is a problem regardless of whether all those people have achieved any particular level of education.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 8, 2010 10:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

As a third year undergrad, I will request that this be turned green.

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Sep 8, 2010 10:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Third years unite!

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin

by Helloooo 1st on Sep 8, 2010 11:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

College is a prisoner's dilemma

You are better off going to college than not going to college. But when everyone goes to college, then many of them will end up worse off than they would have been without going to college, because they’ll be working the same crap jobs (or be unemployed) and also be in debt.

I have no idea what the solution to this is.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 11:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

More promotion and encouragement to attend trade schools

A lot of people who go to college don’t really belong in college. It’s not that they’re dumb, but they have specific skills and talents that make them more suited for something else (this is why I think “professional sports” should be a major in college, so the “student-athletes” don’t have to take BS geology classes. They can instead get an education in what they’re good at.).

If we focused more on finding out what someone is good at then teaching them how to do that, there’d be fewer people wasting years in college when they could spend maybe a year on an inexpensive specialized school/training program.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 9, 2010 7:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

Weak

The problem with this is that every time it’s done, shockingly, it turns out that the children of rich/socially superior/racially dominant parents turn out to be “good at” things like philosophy, and children of poor/socially inferior/racially oppressed parents turn out to be “good at” things like manual labor.

There’s a good reason why progressive-minded education people hate tracking. It’s usually a thinly disguised weapon of class warfare.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 9, 2010 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

I agree with this

I got the benefit of having parents who were active that basically demanded that schools overlook the fact that I did no homework and got shitty grades and put me in honors classes.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 9, 2010 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

That's true,

but when “doing something right” relies heavily on people in power not abusing that power, and there are no effective checks on such abuses, I am not interested.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 11, 2010 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

I know it was just an example

but as someone who taught “BS geology classes” to student-athletes at a Division I school, I have to respond. I’m intrigued by your idea of simply letting student-athletes major in being athletes, but taking geology classes is not the problem. Yes, people take them because they see them as “easier” than physics/chemistry/math, but they still require critical thinking and understanding, even if we don’t make people in the introductory class use calculus.

by el generico on Sep 14, 2010 2:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

Well, the solution to the classic

prisoner’s dilemma is to stop thinking like an economist and think in terms of a code of honor. Cultures that do the latter consistently fare better at the prisoner’s dilemma, and this fact is only paradoxical if you think like an economist.

As for the college problem, I think a good start would be to cut out the subsidies. The education industry is heavily subsidized, based on the notion that education is one of the best things a society can have and it is therefore worthy of public funding. This notion is correct, but the problem is that the subsidy doesn’t actually buy more of the stuff. Like most subsidies it only causes a temporary instability in the local market, and once the market adjusts you have no more actual education than you had before but the price has gone up to match the subsidy, the market signal is lost in the noise, and if you’re the poor fuck who actually wanted an education even without the bribe you just got priced out of it.

Like most subsidies that are least effective in achieving their supposed goals and most effective in keeping themselves alive, the education subsidy is disguised. It comes mostly in the form of loan guarantees. If I go to a bank for a business loan, they’ll want to know what my business plan is: if it looks like it’s going to create enough money to pay them back, they’ll offer the loan; if it doesn’t they won’t. Without loan guarantees, the same thing would happen for student loans. If I want something practical that’s going to get me a job, I can get a loan; if I want to study Byzantine history, the bank will say, “That’s very nice for you, but we don’t care to finance it.” This is not only good for the banks, but it’s an excellent market signal to colleges and students for how to target their education at whatever is most economically useful, which is, after all, the basis of the subsidy’s original inspiration that education is one of the best things a society can have and therefore a public interest. The banks will make it their business to be aware of what is most likely to pay them back and will communicate it to the student. So if some 20-year-old went to law school with the idea that it’s a good way to get rich, as opposed to a genuine interest in law, the bank would have set him straight and told him he’s looking at 15-year-old data and if he gets on the train now, all he gets is a chance to buy high and ride it down in the inevitable decline.

But I don’t see any end to student loan guarantees until the bubble bursts and it creates another gigantic bailout, and possibly even then. No politician can come out against education funding because then he looks like he’s against education (even though he’s really not). If you’re just a buffoon like me, you can embrace it and loudly proclaim you’re opposed to education (even you’re really not) just to make the point, but it’s no way to get elected.

… Uh, sorry for the soapbox speech, and apologies if I got too political. Please help cover my ass here, guys, and refrain from injecting anything partisan.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 9, 2010 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

I get what you're saying

But then, don’t you just end up with the problem that PT mentioned above? Those with the money can go to a proper school and be schooled in whatever they choose that’s not manual labor, and those without will end up with sort of manual labor jobs? It completely ignores the fact that there are people for whom subsidies work because it propels them into a place where they can actually excel because they have the basic tools necessary to perform well.

Like I said, I agree that degree dilution is a problem. I’m just not sure that giving fewer of them in this way is the way to go. Personally, I think the opposite (full public subsidy, no private model) is better. The private model allows for schools to fit all points of student intellectual ability yet still provide a degree that is functionally the same. You’d be better off saying that “these certain skills/achievements get you into college and nothing else” and then everyone else is left to fend for themselves. Eventually, employers would realize that “everyone else” is good for most things and the degreed would take whatever positions they could be honestly challenged in.

!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam

by cuppingmaster on Sep 9, 2010 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, there's no easy answer.

If I had one, I’d be out there trying to get it implemented.

But with regard to your complaint, sure: rich people can buy their way into better colleges, just like they can buy their way into better houses and better cars. It’s the nature of being rich.

To whatever extent there is a legitimate public interest in redistributing wealth, just do it directly and get the job done. Don’t bury it in some market-distorting subsidy.

To say that subsidies really work for some people doesn’t tell us much. If there’s a poor student ready to embark on a smart path of self-improvement, sure, giving him money will help him do that. If there’s another poor student ready to do something wasteful or stupid, giving him money will help him do that, too.

I still think your idea of what the education dollar buys needs more clarity. Where it buys knowledge that increases earning power, a free market is going to tend to work in favor of that and the best policy will focus on clearing out the various entrenched-interest obstacles.

But to a large extent the dollar isn’t buying value at all; like conspicuous consumption, it is a signaling device that one is already rich. If a poor kid gets into Harvard, that has great economic value to him. But the largest part of that economic value has nothing to do with superior education at all; rather, it is that attending Harvard puts him in a position to make friends with a lot of rich kids and thus get his foot in the plutocratic door. Fill up Harvard with only poor kids and that value disappears. (Or replace poor/rich with stupid/smart, and the exact same logic applies.)

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 9, 2010 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

Stop thinking like an economist?

Which type of economist — macro or micro? Most rational people think like micro economists: at least while they’re making decisions about which tradeoffs and choices to make.

I cannot see how anything you write after the first paragraph seems to support that first paragraph. Maybe I’m missing something but it seems all micro economist related. And, to break it down even futher, many people do, in fact, have a code of honor…and how their code of honor is viewed in other people’s eyes does matter for something and does bring utility (or causes disutility when their code of honor is not thought highly off)

by LowcountryJoe on Sep 9, 2010 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't really think that's true

nor do I think the literature supports it. I’m firmly in the “bounded rationality” school of microeconomics.

That being said, I agree that the balance of iglew’s post sounds very odd coming after a paragraph containing “stop thinking like an economist.” The idea of replacing subsidies with direct transfers is very much an “economist” sort of idea.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 9, 2010 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

The first paragraph was unrelated

to the rest of the comment. I suppose I should have posted them as separate comments to avoid confusion. My bad.

To follow up on the prisoner’s dilemma, I was making a David Gauthier like point that straightforward utility-maximizing isn’t necessarily rational. This suggests that to whatever extent the choice of going to college really is a prisoner’s dilemma, then a solution would be for all of the students to adopt a different way of analyzing the problem, whether you want to call it “moral” or “superrational” or whatever.

That economists (and by “economists” we mean people who think about things like the prisoner’s dilemma) fare poorly at prisoner’s dilemma games is a popular factoid among my statistician friends. I’ll try to find out if there’s a real cite for that or if it’s just popular myth.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 9, 2010 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Nothing about utility maximization is straight forward

That’s because everyone’s preferences are different AND because utility maximization often involves balancing short term and long term objectives; many times those conflicting with one another especially with regards to consuming now, postponing for higher consumption later.

by LowcountryJoe on Sep 9, 2010 3:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

This statement
Most rational people think like micro economists

I think is more a statement of how you choose to define “rational” than an observation of human behavior.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 9, 2010 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

I choose to define most people as rational...

…only because I try to see their choices from their point-of-view and not the way I think they should see a point-of-view. Sometimes I slip up and forget this. But when I’m viewing it in what I believe to be the correct manner, people make choices that they feel best benefit them.

Do you honestly feel that the vast majority of people make irrational choices and behave irractionally, the vast majority of the time?

by LowcountryJoe on Sep 9, 2010 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

You know that the whole reason that many economic models don't work is that people don't think like micro economist right?

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 9, 2010 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not aware of any microeconomic models

other than the small numbers of ones related to pricing and demand of various market scenarios. Most of what I know from micro is it’s largely theory based and sometimes uses mathematics to demonstate how theories play out in their practical applications. If you know something different about micro, please share.

Now, macro is an entriely different animal largely dominated by a different kind of economic thinker; more of the planning and controlling sort.

by LowcountryJoe on Sep 10, 2010 8:09 AM PDT up reply actions  

The problem with your type of micro knowledge and the libertarian philosophy that you compliment it with

is that most theoretical micro economics doesn’t work that well unless you assume rational actors. It how things like stickey pricing and well the labor market as a whole really confounded classical theoretical economics till they changed some of the assumptions.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 10, 2010 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

{blinks}

Pam liked my old sig better.

by mikev on Sep 10, 2010 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

basically classical econ only works because of the assumption of rational actors

and that classical econ isn’t that great of a real world approximate.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 10, 2010 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's part of why I find behavioral economics so fascinating.

It’s the study of how the classical theoretical models break down in the real world. That’s very, very interesting to me.

by danmerqury on Sep 10, 2010 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

Isn't all of science about

how theoretical models break down in the world?

Seems to me that that’s the essence of the scientific process. Or if it’s not, it certainly should be.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 10, 2010 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

Not all of it.

That’s the essence of applied scientific fields, and much of engineering.

by danmerqury on Sep 10, 2010 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

Oh, OK.

I guess I don’t think of engineering as “science”. To me, engineering is what science has already figured out so it’s just a matter of doing it, not studying it anymore. For me, “science” means the studying part.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 10, 2010 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

Also:


Science!

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 10, 2010 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

There are plenty of people

who have attempted to use microeconomic models to analyze legal transactions as part of the law and economics movement. That’s how I’ve mostly run into this.

Models that just assume rational behavior from everyone are unable to explain the presence of various inefficiencies in what “should” otherwise be extremely efficient marketplaces (like standard form contracts among highly-competitive goods sellers). Models which assume that “rational” behavior is the exception rather than the rule do better.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 10, 2010 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

Standard form contracts among highly-competitive goods

Homogenous goods in which there are multiple supliers?

It makes perfect sense to me why a standard form would need to be changed frequently. In that type of market, suppliers would have to compete on service, warranties, and guarantees to differentiate from another supplier. And those items become the bulk of the standard language terms of a contract, no?

We probably won’t see eye-to-eye on this and will go ‘round and ’round and I don’t want to do that. So I’ll stop and give you and DFA the last words.

I do find it interesting that neither you or DFA touched my earlier question found at the end of this post. Very interesting.

by LowcountryJoe on Sep 10, 2010 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

I thought that question was purely semantic.

I don’t see how any answer to it is meaningful.

If I say, “yes, I think most people behave irrationally most of the time” then that’s just telling you about how I choose to define rationality.

If I say, “no, I think most people behave rationally most of the time” then that’s just telling you about how I choose to define rationality.

What is it you’re trying to draw out of us here?

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 10, 2010 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

There's a lot of semantic things that get posted here

And I’m sure that you’ve willingly and even gladly responded to it without calling attention to it.

What is it you’re trying to draw out of us here?

I didn’t pose the question to you. However, since you asked: what I wanted to draw out was whether or not the person answering believes that their fellow man makes decent choices a majority of the time. A possible follow-up to that would be to ask [providing the answer is no] if whether or not it would be a better idea to limit people’s choices because of a (percieved) problem that exists because there’s too many people making choices that are not decent. I would be interested to see how that question would be answered.

by LowcountryJoe on Sep 10, 2010 8:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

I didn't mean to criticize.

You had asked why people didn’t answer the question, so I was responding to that.

(By the way, did you get the email I sent you a few weeks ago? I never heard back. No need to answer, I just wondered if you even got it.)

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 11, 2010 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

the answer is most people behave irrationally

but no it isn’t the vast majority of the time.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 10, 2010 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

irrational is not the correct word...

it’s that economic actors are looking to preserve something that they value more highly or too highly. generally it’s protecting their job at all costs or pursuing riches at all costs.

by stm72 on Sep 10, 2010 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

But they do behave irrationally much of the time.

If they didn’t, advertising would be a far more boring place.

by danmerqury on Sep 10, 2010 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

you lost me for a sec...but i gotcha

again, irrational is a normative concept. it’s not an absolute.

again it has to do with an individual maximizing something even if its intangible to you or me.

it’s because you can de-average the average that advertising works or can work. it’s why the internet is an advertising paradise.

by stm72 on Sep 10, 2010 6:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

maybe i should say it this way...

there are two parts to advertising…targeting and the creative part. the latter is uninteristing to me. targeting and roi is when i get excited.

by stm72 on Sep 10, 2010 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

typically that's behaving emotionally, not irrationally.

And I believe there’s a difference between the two concepts much of the time.

by LowcountryJoe on Sep 10, 2010 8:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

In the economic sense?

Anything that doesn’t bring you a maximal amount of money, capital, or utility IS irrational. Economically.

by danmerqury on Sep 10, 2010 8:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

Just utility -- everthing has to boil down to it

Because it cannot be all of what you mentioned.

This is why some people can give money away to charity [certainly not a money maximizing situation] yet it brings them much utility. But that’s probably because getting something named after them means more than the money they gave up to get the perk.

So, Dan, how many people (percentage wise) do not maximize their utility? I’d even suggest that the crack addict maximizes their utility when the smoke rock. Sure, I think it’s irrartional and so do many in society [and I think it hurts the addict’s long-term interests and utility] but the crack addict is placing their preference on the here and the now because the fix/the high is utility maximizing for them. Does it make them wrong? That’s the moral question but one cannot say that they’re not maximizing utility unless you are inside their private thoughts…one has to assume that they’re maximizing utility [just not your preference set and personal utility maximizers].

by LowcountryJoe on Sep 10, 2010 9:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

correct. people do things for prestige and ego all the time.

but this is not an intellectual or an academic discussion. we were talking, as i understand it above, about how the real world befuddles economists. and it’s because people do not behave in ways that academicians can’t explain or don’t understand. so they call it irrationality.

by stm72 on Sep 11, 2010 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

Im using it in the economic sense.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 10, 2010 6:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

right but nonpecuniary benefits are included in analysis of whats rational

people act in ways that undermine their utility on a regular basis as economics defines it. Youre examples aren’t even close to how economics defines it so if you are trying to use a classical economics definition you aren’t using it correctly.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 10, 2010 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

i'm not trying to define it in a classical sense.

if i didn’t say it above, i’ll say it now. academic economics is bs.

by stm72 on Sep 11, 2010 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

oh of course it is.

but the way that you are defining it is subsumed by the way that the field does.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 11, 2010 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

Right

And, yet, the standard-form contracts that appear in practice disproportionately disclaim warranties and service guarantees.

The reason for this is that the “salient” term to the unsophisticated user is the price and time of delivery and a handful of other things, and the non-salient terms (so the research seems to show) don’t impact the person’s view of the bargain. He behaves “rationally” with respect to the salient terms, but irrationally overall. And there are various theories on when things are salient and why, but that’s the basic gist of it.

I didn’t answer your question because it’s literally the case that people are behaving “rationally” and “irrationally”, in some sense, at the same time. The transaction costs involved in behaving like a rational microeconomist are very high and people are not normally willing to pay them.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 10, 2010 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

I like this comment and agree with it

However there’s a point of contention that I have about how I think this will pan out.

I think that a new signaling will emerge and when it’s realized for what it is, it will be marketed and a new focus will develop. It could be that the new thing to look at will be the discipline one studied above all else. Or maybe employers will begin requesting transcrips along with résumés. Heck some say that right-brain functions will be the key to earnings going forward. If that’s the case maybe employers are going to want to see a portfolio of what you shared on the Internet or your own blog.

Higher education wont stand pat and allow themselves to become irrelevent, though. They’ll make changes to their credentialing system before it breaks. Something will emerge.

by LowcountryJoe on Sep 9, 2010 4:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think a lot of businesses already

have plenty of signals they’re using. The problem — which perhaps really isn’t a problem; certainly not from the employer’s viewpoint — is that the students don’t know what they are, so they’re chasing after yesterday’s targets.

Some employers do pay attention to blogs, and probably not in the way people think they do. (That is, crazy weird stuff may well be more useful than something that looks like a resume.)

The majority of skills most favored in today’s economy are “female” skills, which is why today’s economy is already female-dominated, even though the lagging culture hasn’t yet accepted and adjusted to this, except cryptically.

But I’ve already given one soapbox today, so I’ll stop now.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 9, 2010 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

um its called liberal arts

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 6:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hundreds of years ago there were probably people saying "I just don't believe our world revolves around the sun. I probably never will."

It’s clear you just don’t WANT to acknowledge any points people here are making.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Advanced metrics said

Seattle’s D was gonna be awesome and ours wasnt

"The A's have to be setting some record this year for simultaneously maximizing team quality and player anonymity. I guess that’s sort of their thing though." - Luke in MN

by hero66 on Sep 8, 2010 9:26 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

Huh? which metric said seattle was going to be awesome and we weren't

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 9:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

Didn't UZR rank like everyone as god on defense?

Besides, you know, Jose Lopez.

And weren’t our guys, um, less than spectacular?

"The A's have to be setting some record this year for simultaneously maximizing team quality and player anonymity. I guess that’s sort of their thing though." - Luke in MN

by hero66 on Sep 10, 2010 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

not really

they are 10th in team defense in the MLB this year so its not like they aren’t good

Ichiro and Guti are having down years by only being very good rather than great.

but their INF hasn’t been good they moved Figgins and Wilson has been hurt

LF was not good from anyone.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 10, 2010 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

Clarification on Wilson.

I’m pretty sure what DFA means to say is that JACK Wilson, who is an excellent defender, has been hurt, and as a result of that injury the M’s have instead been playing JOSH Wilson, who is a mediocre-to-bad defender.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 10, 2010 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

About LF

Is Saunders bad? I ask because he was playing in CF twice this last series, which makes me assume he must be a pretty good defender in the corner, right?

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 10, 2010 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think he was slightly negative in the corner

so not bad just not good and SSS

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 10, 2010 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

By "advanced metrics"

you mean “lazy sportswriters who predict every team to be the same this year as it was last year”?

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 9:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

No, but you're welcome to continue making assumptions

"The A's have to be setting some record this year for simultaneously maximizing team quality and player anonymity. I guess that’s sort of their thing though." - Luke in MN

by hero66 on Sep 10, 2010 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

And what if those assertions are completely unsubstantiated by fact?

I mean, I can believe really, really hard that bullets travel 30 mph, but I’d be wrong.

by danmerqury on Sep 8, 2010 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

Defensive Stats = Fact?

by Colorado Fan on Sep 8, 2010 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

well considering that UZR correlates very very strongly with Runs Allowed I would say its a hell of a lot closer.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

No.

But this

I believe that a "good defender" probably makes a play more often than a "average defender" about 1-2 times/week. At the end of the day, rarely do those plays keep a team from winning, or save a team from losing.

isn’t substantiated by anything. And defense saves games all of the time. Look at Braden’s last start.

by danmerqury on Sep 8, 2010 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yes, it is a fact that balls were hit and that people observed them and

entered their observations into a system which spews out numbers. That much is fact. It’s fine to say that these numbers aren’t very precise and even less predictive, but it’s not fine to say that there aren’t facts underlying them.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

Pretty freaking well.
How is that working for Z in Seattle? How’s it working for Beane in Oakland?

Have you seen our team ERA? Don’t you think some of that is the defense?

A's Fan in Sweden

by travdog6 on Sep 8, 2010 5:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Also, this
I believe that a "good defender" probably makes a play more often than a "average defender" about 1-2 times/week. At the end of the day, rarely do those plays keep a team from winning, or save a team from losing.

Think about that in terms of a hitter. If a good hitter only succeeds 1-2 times a week more than an average hitter, he’ll have (conservatively) 30 more hits on the year than the average player. That could be somewhere between a .20 and .40 point differential in BA (as well as a boost to OBP and slugging).

A's Fan in Sweden

by travdog6 on Sep 8, 2010 5:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

Some starters make 34 starts because they take the hill every fifth day...

…as their teams’ skip the #5 starter when there’s an extra off day.

by LowcountryJoe on Sep 8, 2010 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

The A’s pitching this season… qualifies as "disappointing" to me.

Leading the AL in runs allowed is disappointing?

Nick Swisher is handsome.

by ChrisCEIT on Sep 8, 2010 5:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

It is if you have very high standards.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

No

The A’s run prevention is not disappointing. The A’s pitching is disappointing.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 6:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Who has pitched worse than you would've thought?

For it to be disappointing, someone isn’t meeting your expectations, right?

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

Can't be Cahill

PT thought he sucked at the end of last season.

Gio has only impressed.

Anderson has been hurt… that’s disappointing.

I don’t recall anyone thinking Mazzaro was going to break out.

Braden threw a perfect game and bitched out A-Rod all while being a solid SP.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 8, 2010 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Anderson, Mazzaro, Bailey, Wuertz, Ziegler, Duchscherer, Sheets, Devine

all produced well below the amount of WAR I’d have hoped for.

That enough for ya?

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Time out

You expected anything out of Devine and Duke?

That counts as a fail on your part.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 8, 2010 6:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

Or Sheets.

Anderson has been hurt, but to me “disappointing” in a sports context means “wasn’t as good as expected.” He’s been very good, but in limited time. Bailey has been a little worse than last year, but that should be expected. Wuertz was hurt, too. Mazzaro has been pretty okayish considering how bad he was last year.

Really, of that list, Ziegler is the only guy who I think has performed a lot worse than one might expect without injuries playing a part.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 6:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

But PT didn't include an injury modifier

He simply said they all produced a lower WAR than he expected.

Your injury point is valid but it doesn’t mitigate the expectation.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 8, 2010 6:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

Of course

But is it fair to call the pitching disappointing if a guy didn’t pitch? I dunno, seems like it’s avoiding the real meat of the discussion: Who hasn’t pitched very well. A guy who doesn’t pitch at all really shouldn’t be part of it.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ouch.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

OOOOOOOOOOh SNAP

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 9, 2010 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

i wasn't knocking anyone and didn't mean to. labor law and labor economics is firmly rooted (or the other way around) in developmental economics....

which by definition is not solely based on things like return on capital, efficiency of production, etc… there is a strong commitment to equitable distribution of profits and ensuring that development works for everyone.

it’s more complicated than just looking at legal rights or property rights, etc…

i wasn’t trying to snap at anyone.

by stm72 on Sep 9, 2010 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

I know, Im a union organizer.

It was just a good comeback to grover.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 9, 2010 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

owners of capital have never had a problem getting their fair share.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 9, 2010 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

For as long as they can stay in business

And as long as their equity losses as shareholders don’t get to unbearable. But all of that, including the losses are fair because the market rewards and punishes. Do things that will delight your cutomers and clients and you probably won’t be punished.

Now, what about those consumers?

by LowcountryJoe on Sep 10, 2010 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Consumers get screwed pretty much all the time by owners of capital

You realize that if workers got their fair share they would make wages equivelent to their productivity in economic models. Since the 70s real wages have remained stagnant and productivity has like quadrupled right?

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 10, 2010 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

There is room for debate about exactly

why productivity has quadrupled. It doesn’t immediately follow that the workers must be doing more. Indeed, in a lot of places productivity has increased precisely because workers are doing less, because they’re being replaced by robots or rendered completely unnecessary by various technologies.

Whether they therefore deserve higher wages is a social, moral and political question, on which economic observations about productivity increase have no bearing.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 10, 2010 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

no its an economic question

in an economically efficient micro economic system wages = productivity. Thats how the model works.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 10, 2010 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

Then I must not be understanding

use of the term “productivity” in this context.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 10, 2010 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

im using the economics term

basically in micro econ models workers earn the value of what they produce. Which does not happen at all in real life.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 10, 2010 6:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

They actually (theoretically) earn the marginal product of their labor,

not the average product. So, the sum of the wages should be quite a bit lower than their production.

by Pero on Sep 10, 2010 7:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

right. I was trying to use lay terms to explain it

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 10, 2010 10:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

And by doing so you've muddled things.

Pero’s statement makes sense to me. I still can’t tell what you mean. Are you talking about labor productivity or total productivity? If the latter, then it includes technology, which need not increase wages. If the former, then it hasn’t quadrupled since the 1970s.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 11, 2010 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

didn't mean that

The marginal product of labor increased dramatically since 1970 and wages have not.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 11, 2010 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

purely theoretically, you are correct.

but capital is not infinite and labor is not always mobile, therefore capital tends to do better. it also makes sense that capital should earn an entrepreneurial return while labor should earn less than marginal productivity because it less risky.

i know you’re gonna disagree

by stm72 on Sep 10, 2010 7:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Either way it still is way off from the way productivity gains have been distributed over the last 40 years

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 10, 2010 10:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

not really

it works the same way.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 11, 2010 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

Productivity quadruples?

Assuming that’s correct, it only quadrupled because the numbers were derived by the amount of output divided by the number of workers. And that’s fine. But what that misses is the new tools that workers have to use – machines, modern computers, hoists, etc. Some of that financial capital that would have gone to the workers had they been soley responsible for the productivity increase has to go to purchasing the tools. And then we must not forget to add in the non-wage benefits and make sure they’re added into the total compensation that’s being measured.

And you haven’t done much to show how owners screw over the consumers…it’s an empty statement as it stand at the moment because you’ve written nothing on that topic.

by LowcountryJoe on Sep 11, 2010 5:46 AM PDT up reply actions  

I cant write about it without getting a CGV

and I have enough of those so im just going to stop all together now.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 11, 2010 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

Really?

The fact that the A’s had like 5 injury-prone, yet good pitchers, and ALL of them fell apart almost instantaneously, is not disappointing to you?

Shrug.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 9:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

And you had high WAR expectations for 5 injury-prone pitchers?

Methinks I see the root of your discontent.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 8, 2010 10:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

I didn't say I had "high" WAR expectations

Well, OK, I did for Anderson.

Um, let’s see. I’d have said that group ought to add up to about 10.5 WAR (in the order from my previous post, 4+1+1.5+1+1+0.5+1+0.5) before the season. The A’s got 3.8.

That’s not good. Getting an extra 2-ish out of Braden and Gio doesn’t make up for it, either.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 11:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

It wasn't disappointing because it was expected

At least it was for Duke, Devine, and Sheets.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 9, 2010 7:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

Basically, Braden and Gio.

The net is way negative.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 6:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

so, then, you must have expected us to be truly cometitive this year?

"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins

by justANotherAsFan on Sep 8, 2010 7:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

comPetitive

"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins

by justANotherAsFan on Sep 8, 2010 7:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

You expected a 2 WAR season from Cahill this year?

When and where did you say that?

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 8, 2010 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

I was hopeful that bettered peripherals would offset worsened luck

and would produce average-ish results, yeah.

Of course, what happened is that he bettered his peripherals and got astounding luck instead of merely pretty good luck.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 9:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

Please link the comment where you predicted

that Cahill would be a league-average SP in 2010 ’cause I missed it the first time around.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 8, 2010 10:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

I didn't do projections for this year

I’m guessing at what I would have projected had I done them.

Doesn’t change the outcome, though— even if you believe that I would have projected Cahill at zero WAR, it still comes out “disappointment” (though less of one).

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 11:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

The irrational hate comes out

So if you had projected zero WAR for Cahill and he ended up with a 2+ WAR score somehow, for some reason, it would still be a “disappointment”.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 9, 2010 12:02 AM PDT up reply actions  

WTF?

I was talking about the whole team. Do the math (10.5 – 3.8 -2 – 2). It turns out to be a deficit of 2.7 WAR from my expectations instead of 4.7.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 9, 2010 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

OK... I can look back and see that

Can you see where you left ambiguity in your previous comment?

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 9, 2010 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yes

Can you see where you unjustifiably assumed bad faith (rather than just poor wording) on my part?

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 9, 2010 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

Unjustifiable? Nope.

We were talking specifically about Cahill and then you subtly flipped back to your earlier “overall disappointment” argument. You’ve been harsh on Cahill since the end of ‘09 and you’ve used words much strong than “disappointed” to explain your feelings.

Hey, I admit to missing the turn but the directions you gave were lousy.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 9, 2010 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

OK, whatever

When I’m making an argument based only on visceral dislike of someone, I will say that. (Hey, it happens.) Otherwise, there’s something I’m doing. If you can’t figure out what it is, I’ll thank you to ask me about it rather than throwing insults.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 9, 2010 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

Got news for you...

You tend towards the verbose.

Until you clarified your intent it sounded like you were going there. Hell Paul, taking your comment at face value you DID go there; making my reply justified. (Sure, I could’ve used more moderate language but I’m not exactly known as an incrementalist, am I?)

And there’s no need to thank me. Shucks, I’d do the same for anybody.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 9, 2010 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Cahill's "performance" can hardly be described as disappointing

Even if he cannot be expected to reproduce it next season, the results have been real enough. He should not get credit for runs prevented by the A’s excellent defense, but once they have been discounted he should get credit for the rest as they has provided real value to his team, lucky or not.

by DeJay on Sep 9, 2010 5:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

The OUTCOME has been good

his performance has been meh.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 9, 2010 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

Potato potahto

This is exactly my point. Carlos Gonzalez is having an excellent year even after you consider park effects. His value to his team has not been any less this year because he an unsustainably high babip even if he can’t be expected to reproduce it next year. Cahills production this year for his team shouldn’t be any lessbecause he has had an unsustainably low babip – the runs he has prevented for his team has real value. Skills v performance

by DeJay on Sep 9, 2010 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

I agree with this actually.

A lot of times on here I read luck as unsustainable, and good as sustainable. I think it’s possible to be good while having an unsustainable performance, a la Adam Kennedy 2009. I think Cahill’s deserves a low ERA this year, maybe not as low as it is, but he’s been good. I don’t see a repeat performance though.

A's Fan in Sweden

by travdog6 on Sep 9, 2010 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

If I was balloting for the Cy Young,

I would give runs prevented (even on “lucky” BIP outcomes) due consideration. When giving awards, my philosophy is that it’s best to risk sweeping in some luck in order to give people full credit for the breadth of their skill.

This is not my Cy Young ballot, however.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 9, 2010 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

This seems like a fair distinction

and well phrased. I think that pretty well says how I feel about awards vs. future roster construction.

by el generico on Sep 14, 2010 3:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

I figured it was heading this way...

but you think the A’s defense is stellar enough to make up for a “disappointing” pitching performance to lead the league in preventing runs?

Nick Swisher is handsome.

by ChrisCEIT on Sep 8, 2010 9:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

Combined with playing in the Coliseum and being lucky, yes, I do

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 9:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

The Coliseum hasn't been that great per BR

It scores a 99, pro-pitcher to be sure but hardly the second coming of Petco.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 8, 2010 10:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think that's a statistical artifact of the A's' weirdly strong home-field advantage this season

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 11:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

3 year average of 98

99 in 2009.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 8, 2010 11:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

So the quarter run a game

they are better than the second best team in the AL is due to luck and defense, and more so, since they’d still be tied for first in runs allowed?

I honestly dislike when you reach on a subjective point like you’re trying here.

Nick Swisher is handsome.

by ChrisCEIT on Sep 9, 2010 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

A quarter run a game is about 40 runs over a full season

The A’s UZR is more than 40 runs positive already, and the season isn’t even over yet.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 9, 2010 11:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

So you're saying Crisp and Anderson's injuries are the reason we're behind Texas

Also the close game losses that make up the difference between Pythag and real records. And of course Texas isn’t allowed to take any of their injuries back.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 10:24 AM PDT reply actions  

Sweeney would have had a 1.2 or something had he been healthy

But still to have only 2 2 WAR and better players is terrible.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 10:28 AM PDT reply actions  

That should be five 2 WAR players

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

Based on this...

We can reinforce our preconceived plans for 2011:

- Resign Crisp with Rajai as his backup
- Find 2 capable corner OF even if they are expensive as the marginal gain would be large. With Sweeney’s knees I think he is only a 4th OF now. I’ll be curious to see how Hermida performs down the stretch. Carter and Taylor likely won’t make the team out of spring training but I would love to be surprised. Might as well keep Carter down til June to save a year of service time.
- Ellis may be worth keeping (though I propose we don’t pick up his option and then resign him for around $2M) if we cannot sign someone like Hudson at a reasonable price.
- Kouz is here to stay and we aren’t going to get Beltre anyways.
- We need a backup plan for Vin Mazzaro (Outman?)
- We shouldn’t ignore bullpen depth… though I think we should have plenty of it by default. But then again, I said the same at the start of this year…

by DrDoom on Sep 8, 2010 11:23 AM PDT reply actions  

By resign Crisp...

I mean pick up his option. My bad.

by DrDoom on Sep 8, 2010 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

Signing or trading for 2 corner OFs would be a good idea...

If Carter and Taylor play well next spring then the A’s will have a good problem on their hands. I pretty much agree with the rest of what you said.

I’m intrigued by Larish, but Buck, Sweeney, and Co. are for the birds.

If nothing is done, then the corner OFs will probably be Jackson and Davis/Larish/Sweeney.

by Brett Narloch on Sep 8, 2010 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

If nothing is done they'll peak at 85 wins drop off quickly and then have to rebuild

What’s intriguing about Larish? He seems like AAA filler to me.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

I agree, that something has to be done.

Their only chance at a playoff birth is if everything breaks their way or 85 wins actually wins the division.

Larish could be a decent DH sometime. I’m certainly not projecting stardom for him.

by Brett Narloch on Sep 8, 2010 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

Please put money on this "sneaking suspicion"

$20 says you’re wrong.

Even if you’re actually just talking through your hat, think of it as a donation to the United Caucasian Hamburger Fund.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Oh, I'll donate 20 bucks to that fund either way.

Fortunately, I’m a caucasian who eats hamburgers.

"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden

by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Sep 8, 2010 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

Is that a "yes" on this bet?

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

Plus he's a 1B playing the OF

in small samples that might work but I dont want to see this dude next year. Out of everyone in the OF, only Crisp, Davis, Jackson & Hermida are worth keeping. Sweeney’s knees are effed, and there goes all his defensive value. You cant have knee issues at this age and expect him to have a long career, it doesnt work like that.

-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.

by PL78 on Sep 8, 2010 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

Jackson is worth keeping? I really can't see why.

the same is probably true of Hermida, though I’m fine if they want to invite him to spring training.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

yeah, i mean neither should be relied on or counted upon in the immediate future

I do like them both better than Sweeney though.

-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.

by PL78 on Sep 8, 2010 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

Wow you must really hate Sweeney.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 5:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

PL78 might not be wrong

If Sweeney can’t field anymore, he’s really not very useful.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 5:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sure but Jackson isn't a picture of health either. He's got Conor Jackson's disease.

And Hermida’s healthy, but he hasn’t been good in 3 years. At least the other guys might get healthy and be good. I’d probably not keep any of them at anything more than an NRI…other than Sweeney whom I might offer $700K or something and use his options.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

Fair enough

That we’re having a Sweeney vs. Jackson vs. Hermida discussion at all is pretty indicative of the problem.

In a world that didn’t suck, we’d be saying, “Forget those guys. Taylor will be here.”

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ugh. I had forgotten about Taylor. Thanks a lot.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Chris Carter!

In spite of his 0-19 (or whatever it was) in the bigs, I still have high hopes for him as a LF in 2011.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 8, 2010 6:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

Me too, but I'm OK with trading him in a package for Choo

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

An AK-47 could come in handy

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 6:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

maybe...

but I bet the South Korean Army doesn’t issue those.

Nick Swisher is handsome.

by ChrisCEIT on Sep 9, 2010 11:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Supposedly there was a thing that said if he

helps S. Korea towards the gold in the asian games this year (or something kind of cryptic like that) he would be okay in terms if his military service. I can’t find it now, though — drat!

!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam

by cuppingmaster on Sep 9, 2010 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

You're correct

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Sep 9, 2010 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

An issue with doing "WAR over X games is"

you are assuming the player is going to play exactly the same all year round. Crisp, for example, he apparently having a career year offensively, but maybe when he came off the DL he just hit a hot streak right away and if he had been playing all year we would have to endure his more typical cold streaks along with the hot ones? Small Sample Scales are important for a reason.

-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.

by PL78 on Sep 8, 2010 12:23 PM PDT reply actions  

By that reasoning, there is no stat that would give an accurate description of a player's value

if that player has been hurt/not playing for a significant portion of the season like Crisp has this year. You make a valid point, I’m just saying that since there is no stat that is not affected by small sample sizes, you have to go with what you have. You just have to remember that the number comes from data that might not be reliable/reflective of what he would have done in a full season.

That being said, I think Crisp has been great when he has played, and that the A’s should definitely pick up his option since there is no better player readily available to replace him with.

"Everybody in the building is standing except for people in a wheelchair." - Doug Woog

"It’s like the lost burrito of Atlantis." - jeepers

by Where's My Burrito? on Sep 8, 2010 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Well, even if Crisp had a cold streak for the rest of the year (including his injury time), he'd still be on a career year.

His 2010 WAR is closing in on the WAR he’s produced in 2008 + 2009, even in his limited playing time this year.

by danmerqury on Sep 8, 2010 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

Um, 2005 called?

Pam liked my old sig better.

by mikev on Sep 8, 2010 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

That was a fairly pointless comment in response to me. I was responding directly to Dan's cold streak comment.

He said that even a ~3 cold streak he’d be having a career year, except I don’t think that’s true. His offensive numbers would be really quite awful with about 80 or so crappy PA to finish off the season.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

It was pointless... probably uncalled for...

But it came to my mind and I felt compelled to type it.

by Brett Narloch on Sep 8, 2010 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

"messing around"???

This isnt the place to be doing that dont you know? AN changes the baseball world and everything needs to be written in terms that are worthy to be quoted by major media. Yup, no “fans being fans” allowed here, if you say literally anything you need to back it up with quotations and footnotes and have a notary public sign off on it.

AN = NO FUN ZONE.

-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.

by PL78 on Sep 8, 2010 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

He's asking for a trade to another blog?

Hm. I don’t think HalosHeaven will give us RallyMonkey in return, but maybe they’ll sell low on that poster with the Asian-sounding username that I can’t remember.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure about Graham.

Sure, he’s an awesome pen, but I’m worried what kind of a clubhouse presence he is once you take him away from LL. I think he needs guys like Jeff to keep him from going postal. I just don’t see him having the same kind of chemistry with guys like Nico and BBG.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 8, 2010 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

I support trading for Carlos Sliva for Graham

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 5:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Did we acquire Carlos Silva? Good lord why?

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 5:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

Bill Bavasi.... Bill Bavasi

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 6:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

He has the same career walk rate as Greg Maddux.

And as we all know, command and control are the only things that matter.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Didn't you hear?

He was a free agent last summer. Signed with some soccer blog or something.

We need revenue sharing for small-market blogs!

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

I really should negotiate a no trade clause in my next AN contract

I don’t like all this uncertainty. I might wake up tomorrow and have to post on Pinstripe Alley or something.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 6:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

Don't do it man!

You’ll regret it the rest of your life.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Stupid CBA

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 6:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Do you mean Xeifrank?

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 8, 2010 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

He's a Dodger fan, boyo

I don’t know if TrueBlueLA is as crazy as the other LA blogs, but if it’s anything like Bruins Nation, he might be itching to get out of there…

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 5:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

I can't lie, I lol'd.

I figured you were just joking.

A's Fan in Sweden

by travdog6 on Sep 8, 2010 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

It seems to me that a lot of the fielding metrics tend to underrate ground ball pitchers.

FIP does literally nothing with batted ball types. xFIP tries to fix this by normalizing the HR rate. But do any of the metrics take into account that a ground-ball pitcher is also less likely to give up many doubles? Triples included. I mean you almost always need to get the ball in the air in order to get extra base hits. If a pitcher is really only giving up singles and inducing more double plays than other pitchers, he’s not going to allow many runs. If other metrics try to take this into account let me know.

"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper

"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles

by Cheezombie on Sep 8, 2010 3:35 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

I'm sorry, not fielding metrics, pitching metrics lol

"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper

"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles

by Cheezombie on Sep 8, 2010 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

tRA dude.... its a mighty good stat

It does all this. Im just saying

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

I know you've been beating the tRA drum a lot recently,

but I’m kind of curious as to why you like tRA so much over FIP. Most of the correlational studies I’ve seen have them as equals, more or less.

by danmerqury on Sep 8, 2010 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

I just think its more descriptive, in addition to being slightly more predictive.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

FIP and tRA both use the same basic principle.

That is, break down all at-bats into a certain number of categories, then score any at-bat in any category according to the average observed actual result of all at-bats in that category.

More categories equals more grouping on at-bats with other at-bats that are theoretically similar and thus more predictive power. At the same time, the whole purpose of categorizing is to filter out random noise, so more categories also equals less filtering of that noise (and thus a need for a larger sample for equivalent confidence).

At the absurd extremes you could have all at-bats in a single category, in which case every AB is projected for a uniform average expectation, ie, a null prediction in which everything is projected the same; or you could have infinite categories in which each at-bat stands alone for the exact same force, trajectory, etc, ie, a different sort of null prediction in which nothing is valued except the actual result of each individual at-bat.

Somewhere in between lies the optimal projection, and it’s a question of how fine a categorization you think maximizes that, and whether you define the categories in meaningful ways (as opposed to something arbitrary like say, the first letter of the batter’s name). DFA is saying he prefers the finer categorization offered by tRA.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 8, 2010 5:15 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

this is far more well worded than what goes on in my head

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 5:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

SIERA.

It doesn’t treat every strikeout, ground ball, or fly ball the same, as it counts increasing/diminishing returns.

by danmerqury on Sep 8, 2010 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

what do you think of tRA vs SIERA?

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

I like a lot of the things that the squared formula terms add, such as the increasing/diminishing return stuff.

And it’s pretty scary good at the next year ERA correlational test. I’d probably reach for FIP first, as it’s the easiest to work with (both math-wise and access-wise), but I’d probably go for SIERA after that. To me, tRA seems like it’s kind of in that middle ground between complexity and power.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10042

by danmerqury on Sep 8, 2010 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

tRA is a significantly better same year correlated and not that significantly different when it comes to next year.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

That's because SIERA is an xFIP-like stat that normalizes HR/FB rate.

It inherently makes it less correlated to ERA for the same year (but it still beats xFIP by a considerable margin).

by danmerqury on Sep 8, 2010 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

well there is tRAr that also regresses it.

I haven’t seen tRAr vs SIERA though. But Im also a little wary of regressing HR/FB until a pitcher has a good baseline.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

So you just use tRA rather than tRAr?

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 6:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

Generally yes.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 6:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

Why not regress UNTIL a pitcher has a good baseline?

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 6:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

because of Dana Eveland

the reason why you regress is because you want to eliminate deviations from true talent, you don’t have a good judge of what that true talent is. Id prefer to leave it be than mess with it because we really have no good way of estimating it.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 7:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

this

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Sep 8, 2010 10:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

Its what I learned from the Eveland debate.

as a hole i would expect tRAr to be better predicting next years outcome. On individual pitchers I think tRA would do a better job if you know that hes getting lit up.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 9, 2010 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

I hate SIERA just because I'm sick of 18325 different metrics that measure the same thing

And SIERA happens to be the newest one for pitching.

Really, sabermetricians need to get their stuff together. Figure out which of these works best and trash the rest. Combine them, make them better, but having 17 pitching metrics that do essentially the same thing is part of what turns people off from advanced numbers.

I’m not saying people shouldn’t keep coming up with new things, but we don’t really need to use every single metric under the sun, do we?

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 6:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Right! This is what I mean

I don’t actually hate SIERA. If it’s better, I’ll use it. I was just making a point about the overabundance of some of these metrics.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 6:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

I understand your frustration with multiple metrics,

but by complaining about them you’re essentially shooting the messenger. You want there to be one simple answer you can turn to all the time. In reality, there is no such answer. The multiplicity of metrics is the ongoing effort to get closer to one. To stop the effort and just settle for some number and everyone agree on it would be to pretend an answer is right just for the sake of not having to ask anymore.

But that’s not to say you’re wrong to want it. And it applies to all of philosophy, not just baseball statistics. It’s the essence of Bokononism:

Tiger got to hunt,
Bird got to fly;
Man got to sit and wonder, “Why, why, why?”
Tiger got to sleep,
Bird got to land;
Man got to tell himself he understand.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 8, 2010 6:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

No no, the effort is fine

When we have 5, I’m not saying don’t come up with #6. I’m saying let’s figure out which of the 5 is working best, use that, and try to improve (or develop a new, better one).

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

Bokonon should be revised to reflect a different ending

Would suggest listening to some Greenday’s Longview for some inspiration/suggestions.

by LowcountryJoe on Sep 9, 2010 4:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

I very much appreciate this comment

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 9, 2010 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

That's cool.

Because if man is just going to sit there and wonder, “why, why, why?” without eventually getting off his ass [even as nothing’s on the tube and the phone’s not ringing"…well, then, take matters into your own hand — doesn’t matter which one, actually.

by LowcountryJoe on Sep 9, 2010 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

They usually do, except Baseball Prospectus has a "not invented here"

attitude with a lot of the “competing” metrics. They think that being a pay site means that they can’t be open source.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 6:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

BBPro is holding back the field, IMO

It’s not that they’re bad, but having proprietary numbers really hurts the advancement of some of these metrics.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 6:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

That's the main reason wOBA is so prevalent, yet EqA is virtually unheard of.

They’re the same damn stat, but one is on an OBP scale, and one is on an AVG scale. The difference? One is free to use and free to distribute. The other is not.

by danmerqury on Sep 8, 2010 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

Even worse they continue to insist on using their FRAA which no one

understands or even respects — with the introduction of play by play defensive stats. So their WARP is not just relatively costly, it’s rightfully disparaged. They’re driving themselves out of business.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 6:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

Daric Barton is good at baseball

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin

by Helloooo 1st on Sep 8, 2010 3:38 PM PDT reply actions  

this is true.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

I would like to see him go on Dancing With The Stars...

he’d totally win it.

In the middle of each routine, he’d do the splits and pop right back up, and the crowd would roar.

Bob Geren was born in a suburban apartment complex he built with his own two hands.

by QueenOfCansAndJars on Sep 8, 2010 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

Either that or he'd just walk right through it.

"You know, a long time ago being crazy meant something. Nowadays everybody's crazy."

-Charles Manson

by kaweahkaweah on Sep 8, 2010 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

Here's my problem with all this...

FIP, xFIP, tRA, etc. are all designed to take the hits allowed, walks, K’s, outs and HR and create a hypothetical number of runs that should/could have been scored.

They don’t actually go over the number of runs that in fact, scored during the pitcher’s appearance.

Now I understand using one of those metrics to talk about a pitcher’s future performance but to use a hypothetical number to measure a pitcher’s actual historical performance seems, well… stupid. Why would anyone be “disappointed” if a SP gave up 12 base runners in a game if he went 8 innings and didn’t give up a run? Call it Luck, call it Skill call it whatever you want but 8 shut-out innings is 8 shut-out innings.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 8, 2010 6:49 PM PDT reply actions   5 recs

You seriously wouldn't be disappointed by an inning where a pitcher gives up a double, hits a batter,

gives up a hard hit liner to left field, then gets out of it with a line drive to third and a double play on a smashed ball to the shortstop?

You wouldn’t find that troubling? All you did was lucksack your way out of dodge.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

But lucksacking your way out of dodge is a GOOD thing.

Look, the pitchers’ talent is what it is. They’re going to have whatever true talent level they actually have. If they get results that exceed that talent level, I’m happy. If they get results that fall short of that talent level, I’m disappointed.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 8, 2010 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

this

"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins

by justANotherAsFan on Sep 8, 2010 7:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

If he managed to do that for 9 innings and the A's scraped a run from somewhere

Then the A’s would have won the game and I wouldn’t be feeling disappointment.

Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t expect him to get away with the same performance the next time out. And as a predictor of future performance FIP would justifiably enhance my trepidation the next time my magician pitcher took the mound.

But telling me I should be disappointed by what could have happened instead of being happy over what did actually happen is… stupid and depressing.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 8, 2010 7:35 PM PDT up reply actions   3 recs

That would be pretty lucky, yes. I wouldn't be disappointed, though

What if the next inning he threw eight pitches but gave up a solo homer? That’d be a pretty efficient inning but the end result would be worse than the lucky inning before where he had to work more.

I think that stuff is going to balance itself out over time, though.

Last of the Ninth - Photography

by Flashfire on Sep 8, 2010 11:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think the disappointment is in the context of true talent

And what they’ll likely do in the future.

I think PaulThomas would be very happy with the “disappointing” pitching staff if they A’s were somehow on their way to the World Series.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Sep 8, 2010 6:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

FIP, xFIP and tRA are an assumption of "true talent"

WAR (per Fangraphs) is based on FIP.

We have limited info on what the ball is doing when it comes off the bat. We essentially chalk the outcome up to Luck.

But let me use Cahill as an example…

He knows he has a great defense behind him and he knows when his sinker is working the other team is going to pound the ball into the ground. (And we all know that it’s a lot tougher to get an extra base hit on a ball that’s hit on the ground.) So he makes a deliberate effort to throw his sinker early and often to get the batters to hit ground balls. FIP punishes Cahill for trusting in his defense. He is punished for being aware of the quality team behind him.

To steal from Bull Durham… he’s being punished for being democratic.

Is it truly Luck that is dictating Cahill’s results? He has a game plan that utilizes the strengths of his team. He executes said game plan. The results tend to be as he predicted they would be; predictions that are based on the data available to him. That doesn’t sound like Luck to me.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 8, 2010 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

I couldn't agree more

Thabnks for stating what I’ve been trying to say in about 100 posts today, succinctly and correctly.

I think, of all the A’s pitchers, Cahill is actually the most likely to regress, his BABIP being so incredibly far off the charts. But the whole staff’s BABIP is at least three standard deviations off the charts…

Add to that, in at least one of the systems (I think it’s StatCorner) the ballpark effect is based on this year’s numbers.

You can’t do that, folks, if you want to truly gauge a pitcher’s “skill”, because you’ve just robbed him of his effect vs. average.

If you’re going to try to gauge the season so far, you’ve got to use historical averages.

If you’re going to try to predict a players’ predicted future value, you use different metric than you do if you’re trying to gauge their current performance.

There are many many “nuggets” of completely useless information that should help one determine the relative value of some of these “advanced” stats just sitting there waiting to be picked:

Daric Bartons’s bRAA on StatCorner is +23.8 runs. That’s a wonderful number, almost 24 runs above average, and it confirms what we statheads all know about his value. (It doesn’t include defensive value, it’s strictly his hitting being evaluated).

Meanwhile, Ichiro Suzuki, who is steaming toward his 10th or 11th consecutive season of 200+ hits/season, is at 6.5 bRAA. There must be some sort of context for this. Yeah, I know, he only hits singles, and he doesn’t walk anywhere near as much as Daric, and on and on, but come on! Daric Barton is almost 4 times as valuable a hitter as Ichiro?

?

"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins

by justANotherAsFan on Sep 8, 2010 7:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

Why should Ichiro be worth more?

Because your preconceived notions say so? or do you have a non terrible reason to believe that.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 8, 2010 8:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

He's not 4 times as valuable

He’s 4 times as far from league average. This is a common misconception.

A league average hitter creates about 80 runs over a season (80*9=720— obviously I’m simplifying here, but that’s reasonable-ish). Ichiro is on pace for about 86. Barton is on pace for about 104. That’s not four times better, it’s 1.21 times better.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 9:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

Because a SP that gave up 12 base runners in a game isn't very likely to emerge from his next game with 8 shut-out innings.

I mean, if it happens, great, but it’s hard to give up 12 base runners and still pitch well, eventual outcome regardless.

by danmerqury on Sep 8, 2010 6:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

I totally agree

However, you are talking about a future performance.

I am talking about actual, historically documented performance.

Yes or No. Are you going to be disappointed in a SP who just gave you 8 shut-out innings and gave your team a great chance to win the game?

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 8, 2010 7:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

Of course not.

He could walk the bases loaded every inning, and I wouldn’t be disappointed if he gave me eight shut-out innings.

by danmerqury on Sep 8, 2010 7:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

But if that pitcher is bad, he's already bad.

Giving up 12 base runners doesn’t make him any worse. So why not be happy that he got away with it this time?

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 8, 2010 7:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'd call that "relief"

and the converse “irritation,” rather than happiness and disappointment.

I mean, by this logic, a parent should be “happy” rather than “disappointed” that their kid lucked into an A on a test where he spent the night before smoking crack instead of studying.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

If you feel that grades are the goal, yes.

But I don’t feel that grades are the goal; I feel that learning is the goal, and grades are irrelevant an imperfect measure of whether that goal is achieved.

With baseball, I feel like winning is the goal. I don’t feel like “being good” is the goal and the score is an imperfect measure of whether that goal is achieved. The score is the goal.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 8, 2010 10:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

I like when iglew justifies crack use because of his distaste for the education system :-P

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 9, 2010 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

If this weren't so amusing, I think I should be offended.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 9, 2010 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

good then it was received exactly how I intended it.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 9, 2010 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think I figured out what's wrong with this

It’s that giving up 12 baserunners really does “make” him worse from the perspective of the observer. It resolves the potential-outcome cloud somewhat in the direction of him being worse.

It’s like those double-slit experiments. Observing an electron going through the bottom slot really does “make” it go lower than not observing it and having it be a generalized wave-pattern.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 8, 2010 11:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think that's exactly on point.

Any disagreement we have here is not on facts or priorities at all. It’s just that our notion of “disappointment” is dependent on our personal habitual way of viewing causality, probability, and our interaction with the universe. It’s the difference of what one views as constant and what one views as fluid enough that it is meaningful to hope for it.

I understand exactly what you’re saying about resolving the probability cloud, but to me it does not “make” the electron go one way instead of the other. This is functionally like a semantic disagreement, but it’s the sort of deep semantics that connects directly to how we conceptualize the world.

If I turn up a card from the top of the deck and it’s a seven, does that “make” it less likely that you’re holding a seven in your hand? That depends on how I chose to conceptualize that probability in the first place.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 9, 2010 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

Well said, fuzzy one.

I feel the same way.

Others may view it differently, but when an A’s pitcher pitches poorly but escapes the inning unscathed, I am not disappointed. When an A’s pitcher pitches well but the opponent scores 4 runs off lucky blips and bloops, I am disappointed.

It’s just how I feel about the game.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 8, 2010 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

OK, but how would you feel about the pitcher's performance?

A: You got really lucky and we won! Keep up the good work!

B: You got really lucky and we won! Don’t press your luck.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 8, 2010 7:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

What I would SAY, if I were the coach,

is option A.

What I would FEEL is “Woohoo! Yay! We won!”

Game is on. Leaving this thread now.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Sep 8, 2010 7:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Oh I like you

"The A's have to be setting some record this year for simultaneously maximizing team quality and player anonymity. I guess that’s sort of their thing though." - Luke in MN

by hero66 on Sep 8, 2010 9:38 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

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