Rangers Rock A's, 16-9

and a mid-level prospect

Rodriguez signed in 2003.

From Cots:

For purposes of calculating years as a pro, the counting begins the day a player signs his first pro contract, not the season he begins to play.

But…

A player may be eligible for a fourth option year if he has been optioned in three seasons but does not yet have five full seasons of professional experience. A full season is defined as being on an active pro roster for at least 90 days in a season…. The 90-day requirement means short-season leagues (New-York Penn, Northwest, Pioneer, Appalachian, Gulf Coast, Arizona Rookie, Dominican and Venezuelan Summer Leagues) do not count as full seasons for the purposes of determining eligibility for a fourth option.

He didn’t play until 2006 and he’s used 3 options.

And all that means… something.

that’s a best case scenario for the A’s.

Posada = DH now.

Montero = not a catcher

And if you look at De La Rosa’s Home/Road splits over the last 3 years you’ll see that there is no evidence of that in his performance.

Bonderman has seriously contemplated retirement, and has an average fastball of 90 now.

Harang has been taken out of the rotation by his own team during the stretch run – that’s an indicator of how bad he’s pitched and how bad his stuff has declined.

Vasquez won’t sign on the West Coast.

Penny was a wash-out in Boston and I can’t see him making a choice to return to the AL. I also don’t like his recent injury history, or conditioning.

Lilly has experienced a significant decline in velocity since his last AL days.

Pavano and Lee are obviously better, but they’ll also get paid a ton more than De La Rosa, and I’m talking about the A’s signing DLR in conjunction with an elite guy – preferably Crawford in my book.

Now, what De La Rosa has that those other guys don’t:

He’s 29, so he’s far less likely to decline in a multi-year deal than they are.

He throws gas. He averages more than 93 mph on his fastball. If a guy is making an NL-to-AL switch, I at least want him to have good stuff, not fringy high 80s stuff, which several of the guys on your list above do at this point in their careers.

Maybe his numbers were supressed in Colorado, and maybe he will pitch to a new true talent level when he leaves that environment. (I realize that he spent time in KC, but he’s clearly a better pitcher now than he was at 24 years old). Some guys get much better movement on their off-speed stuff when they leave Colorado.

This point is important to me: Other than Pavano and Lee, he’s absolutely the only guy on that list who’s a good bet to qualify as a Type A free agent at the end of his next FA deal. I could very much see the A’s signing him for three years, him posting a reasonable ERA in Oakland, continuing to rack up strikeouts, and qualifying as a Type A SP again at age 32 when he hits the open market for the second time. The A’s offer him arb, he declines since he’s set up for a second multi-year deal. That scenario doesn’t exist for any of the late-30s guys you listed, because they’ll all be old men at the end of the next contract they sign.

I view De La Rosa as an upside play – the rare free agent who could reach a new true talent level in a good way, if he gets the opportunity to pitch in a pitcher’s park. I kinda view Crawford the same way. I realize it’s incredibly rare for a player to begin peaking at 29, or to enjoy his best season at age 30, but I could see it happening with both of those guys. I think Crawford is coming into his man-strength. Crawford has hit with greater power this year than he ever has in his career; he started focusing on baseball later in life, and maybe he’s just now harnessing his considerable gifts and maximizing his physical tools at the plate.

I leave with you with two thoughts, and I realize they aren’t sabermetric:

a.) If Carl Crawford is a late-career bloomer offensively, it could mean that his slugging percentage hovers at .500 over the next three years. That means he becomes a 20-homer-per-season guy. If CC slugs .500 he’s a $30M per year value, and my $25M front-loaded offer still has surplus value.

b.) What if De La Rosa, pitching with more confidence in a better environment, could lower his BB/9 to 3? I realize this isn’t the most likely scenario, but I do view him as a true upside play. A guy who tops out at 90 mph doesn’t have much upside. A lefty who averages 93.4 mph the past two seasons – that upside appeals to me. He lowers his walk rate significantly and he’s an All-Star. Last year he was worth $16.5M according to Fangraphs; I’ll bet he signs for three years and $24-28M. I think he’s a decent bet to outperform that contract, and to yield two draft picks when he finishes it.

but if he’s a crappy 2B already (and all the evidence seems to indicate that he is) he’s likely to be really terrible by the time he’s 34 or 35.