Yet Another Armchair Amateur's Plan for the Offseason

by Miata71 on Sep 11, 2010 12:39 PM PDT

It's really hard to postulate trades with all the variables, so I'll stick mainly to free agent possibilities, a list of which is here. Let me start by saying that I think the As infield is o.k. Not awesome Yankees great, but they provide good defense and adequate offense. For example, I would not make a big run at Carlos Pena to "improve" us at 1B, because Daric Barton is good - he is not the offense's problem. Their outfield needs improvement. My goal would be to have Rajai Davis play his proper role, as 4th outfielder, starting a few days a week to give the others a rest, plus as a super-dynamic late inning replacement. (And, knowing our history, an injury substitute)

The As have two key possible free-agents, Coco Crisp and Mark Ellis. Ideally, they would keep Ellis, the only remaining tie to the great teams of the recent past. A short deal at a reasonably price till Weeks (or somebody) is ready. If not, sorry, we may have to look elsewhere, externally or internally (e.g. Rosales) to save money. There are a lot of 2B free agents available.

It's important that they keep Crisp, because, when healthy, he is a good player, plus, there aren't many good alternatives. Set at CF, we now look at LF and RF.

For corner outfield, two names leap out: Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth. Werth has more pop, Crawford more speed. I'd go for Crawford - better D, the Coliseum isn't friendly to power hitters, and he'd fit right in on the new, "running As". Billy, please, go get him. Not to say we should take a run at Werth too, but, for the sake of argument, let's say we the money runs out and we don't get him.

I'd look at Jason Kubel. He's having an off year, so he may be more affordable. He rakes vs. RHP. Drawbacks are that his D is marginal, but you could swap in Rajai or Ryan Sweeney, and he yet another LH bat on a team that's arguably a bit too left-handed. Until Michael Taylor arrives. If the As don't resign Cust, Kubel could get a lot of starts at DH.

So, the end result:

C : Suzuki, Powell

IF: Barton, Ellis?, Pennington, Kooz, Rosales as reserve

DH : Cust or Kubel

OF: Crawford, Crisp, Kubel, Sweeney, Rajai

up and comers: Carter, Taylor

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Comments

It kills me to say, but I just don't see Ellis here next year.

I’d love to sign him if he’s super cheap because he’s a great guy, and was a good player (and one of my favorites), but he doesn’t have much to offer, unless he gains a step and hits like he used to. He doesn’t have the defensive flexibility to come back in a reserve role.

Kubel is an interesting idea. It’s pretty remarkable to put up a wOBA and only be worth half a win. His defense must be really terrible. I’m still keen on Cust for 2011; hopefully he can put up numbers like this year, even if they were influenced by luck.

A's Fan in Sweden

"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime

by travdog6 on Sep 11, 2010 12:56 PM PDT reply actions

I'm thinking that in late innings Sweeney or Rajai make excellent defensive replacements

and, of course, Kubel could DH.

Carlos Gonzalez would look nice in one of the corner outfield spots right now

by Miata71 on Sep 11, 2010 5:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Twins hold a $5.25M option on Kubel next year

So he’s out of the question…

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Sep 11, 2010 1:35 PM PDT reply actions

Missed that, but their payroll is about 90M for this year

so, maybe they won’t exercise the option since he had a down year.. But you are probably right that he’s unavailable. The remaining FA outfielders start to make Gabe Gross look good. :-)

So, sign Crawford and, either use Taylor/Sweeney in the other spot, or make a trade.

Carlos Gonzalez would look nice in one of the corner outfield spots right now

by Miata71 on Sep 11, 2010 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions

A good rule of thumb when writing something like this...

Always always always figure that if a team holds an option on a player that you’d like the A’s to pursue then that player will have his option picked up.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 11, 2010 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions

especially because if they believe there is interest, they'll pick up the option and trade him

"I wanted to see how much my computer programming skills had improved since the last time I was arrested." - octopus virus

by Zonis on Sep 11, 2010 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Here's a great tool, btw

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/

Many posters here use this information very often!

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Sep 11, 2010 5:27 PM PDT up reply actions

Thanks for the link

It looks like the Twinkies owe 72 million next year. And they need an infield: Orlando Hudson, Nick Punto, and JJ Hardy are FA or arbitration eligible, along with Delmon Young, Carl Pavano, and many of their relievers. They probably need to trim costs next year. Whether that would free up Kubel or not, I don’t know.

Carlos Gonzalez would look nice in one of the corner outfield spots right now

by Miata71 on Sep 11, 2010 5:48 PM PDT up reply actions

I think Zonis made a good point in that if they believe there's interest they'll shop him

Because someone will pay that price tag, so now it’s a matter of what it would cost for a year of Kubel…

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Sep 11, 2010 5:59 PM PDT up reply actions

OK, maybe we trade a couple of prospects for him

instead of losing a draft pick. Think he’d be a good fit?

Carlos Gonzalez would look nice in one of the corner outfield spots right now

by Miata71 on Sep 11, 2010 7:23 PM PDT up reply actions

Can't play the OF for crap, is left handed and basically a DH

We already have someone who’s hitting far better than him.

Jack Cust.

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Sep 11, 2010 11:33 PM PDT up reply actions

Kubel is an upgrade over Cust

In 2008 and 2009, when they both had normal BABIPs, Kubel had a higher OPS, WAR, etc. and gathered a few MVP votes. This year Cust looks better because he has an insanely high BABIP of .401.

Carlos Gonzalez would look nice in one of the corner outfield spots right now

by Miata71 on Sep 12, 2010 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions

That is very wrong.

Even if Cust’s BABIP calmed down, he’d be hitting .240 instead of .275 and he’d still have a higher OPS than Kubel.

Cust is a MUCH better hitter than Kubel. I’m taking Cust 10 times out of 10 over him. On a fantasy team, on a reality team, on any team. On no planet does Kubel add anything of value to the A’s. Id rather have Hermida/Jackson platoon (and I dont want that). Jason Kubel is not upgrading anything for Oakland.

by PL78 on Sep 12, 2010 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions

My math says different

see http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/custja01.shtml

As of today, Cust has 77 hits, 10 of which are HR. So 67 hits on balls in play. If we drop his BABIP from .400 to the “normal” .300, that drops to 50 hits. Adding back in the HR, he’d have 60 hits over 278 AB, for a BA of .216.

I know Cust is not a BA kind of guy, he does have excellent value elsewhere, but a BA of .216 is low.

Carlos Gonzalez would look nice in one of the corner outfield spots right now

by Miata71 on Sep 12, 2010 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions

Hitters do not automatically regress to a .300 BABIP

Cust’s career figure is .338.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Sep 12, 2010 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions

Why do you hate Cust?

Cust’s BA / OBP

2007: .256 / .408
2008: .231 / .375
2009: 240 / .356
2010: 278 / .410

You’ve used BABIP to project BA, but your projection is out of line with a significant amount of actual history. Yet you prefer your projected to the actual.

You’re also using a relatively useless stat (BA) and ignoring a much better one (OBP).

You did actually say nice things about Cust, which is good, but you’ve made two illogical steps in order to justify replacing Cust with an inferior player.

You clearly have some Cust hate issues to overcome. I suggest you seek counseling. Read 20 PT posts and call me in the morning.

This is not little league. The kid who strikes out the most is not the worst player on the team.

by eastcoasta'sfan on Sep 13, 2010 6:57 PM PDT up reply actions

Actually, I'm an OPS kind of guy

and BA factors into that twice, which is why I talk about it. Also, the guy arguing with me talked about it. Adjust Cust’s OPS (or OBA) for his “lucky” BABIP and Kubel starts looking better. (not a huge amount, but some)

As for who is better, “10 times out of 10”, I know the masses are not always correct, but, in ESPN fantasy ownership, survey says

Kubel: owned in 81.4%
Cust: owned in 2.5%

Carlos Gonzalez would look nice in one of the corner outfield spots right now

by Miata71 on Sep 14, 2010 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions

Ack.

Fantasy value is not real world value.

by danmerqury on Sep 14, 2010 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions 3 recs

this needs to be green

fantasy and real value being the same is one of the silliest things ive seen here.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Sep 14, 2010 5:29 PM PDT up reply actions

I'll finish that off.

I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981

by UncleLeo on Sep 15, 2010 6:54 AM PDT up reply actions

twss

Pam liked my old sig better.

by mikev on Sep 15, 2010 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions

Agree, but it was PL78 who brought up Fantasy first, not me.

and I was responding to him.

Carlos Gonzalez would look nice in one of the corner outfield spots right now

by Miata71 on Sep 15, 2010 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions

Also, Kubel had one great year in a sea of mediocre ones. Cust had one bad year in a career of great ones.

Aside from that great year? Kubel’s career high OPS is .805. Cust? Aside from one BAD year, his career low in OPS is .851.

by danmerqury on Sep 14, 2010 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions

Cust hate is so fun to read

I get such a kick out of it when you have a team that has such clear and easy to diagnose weaknesses (oh, like offense in general and production from 3B / LF / RF in specific), yet the #1 idea most people fixate on to improve the team is getting rid of the best offensive player.

Who, admittedly, is at best average . . . but this team with average offense is more like 7 games up than 7 games back.

"I feel like my opinions and judgments are just too corrupted by the numbers." - thejd44

by eastcoasta'sfan on Sep 14, 2010 5:27 PM PDT up reply actions

Right...

…if this team just had a decent offense, we’d be talking possible playoff scenarios right now.

I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981

by UncleLeo on Sep 15, 2010 6:56 AM PDT up reply actions

You miss the fact that I never said to get rid of Cust

He’s explicitly listed as DH in the original post.

Kubel is to come in play one corner to improve the offense, and Crawford the other corner spot. And I said Cust had excellent value.

Other than that, your comment is correct. :-)

Carlos Gonzalez would look nice in one of the corner outfield spots right now

by Miata71 on Sep 15, 2010 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions

My plan for the offseason:

Have faith in the growth of the kids.

Sign Brett Tomko cheap.

Move back the fences. (I know we can’t, but still)

Don’t sacrifice pitching depth for an old bat (maybe for a young bat)

Bob Geren was born in a suburban apartment complex he built with his own two hands.

by QueenOfCansAndJars on Sep 11, 2010 4:57 PM PDT reply actions

Why Tomko?

I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.
~Bob Lemon, 1981

by UncleLeo on Sep 12, 2010 9:22 AM PDT up reply actions

Crawford ??

I just don’t see the A’s making him their franchise player. He will not come cheap. I don’t see him worth 15 – 18 million a year for 6 to 8 years. He is a good player but not a difference maker on this team.

by Arcman on Sep 11, 2010 9:56 PM PDT reply actions

Who would be an impact FA then?

Assuming they can’t get Pujols. the top two are clearly Crawford and Werth

Carlos Gonzalez would look nice in one of the corner outfield spots right now

by Miata71 on Sep 12, 2010 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions

I'm not the most avid supporter of throwing that much money at Crawford

but I’m not pretending he’s not a “difference maker” on the A’s. The A’s have had Davis in LF for most of the year. When it wasn’t Davis it was Cust, Larish, Jackson, Buck, Patterson, Carson, Gross, or Fox. In other words, a bunch of players that really aren’t that good at baseball.

Meanwhile, Crawford has wracked up 6.4 WAR so far this, will probably close the season out with around 7.0 WAR. Oakland currently sits 7.5 games out, so Crawford would have put them within a game or two of Texas. And you’re telling me he’s not a difference maker?

by NateHST on Sep 12, 2010 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions

This times a thousand.

The ONLY reason Texas is in 1st place now is that they have Josh Hamilton. Take him out of the equation and replace him with Sweeney, Davis, Larish, Carson, Watson etc. We are in 1st. We need that franchise player to replace Chavez.

by PL78 on Sep 12, 2010 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions

Crawford is good but..

I dont see the power any more than 10 a year in Oakland. If he was around 10 million a year but not 18 and a long contract.

by Arcman on Sep 12, 2010 8:01 PM PDT up reply actions

Crawford is better than good.

He’s been the 6th most valuable position player in the majors this year according to WAR (4th most in the AL). He’s been the 24th best hitter according to wOBA. Beane said that he will address the power situation, but if Crawford is attainable, then he just needs to address the A’s hitters aren’t very good situation, and Crawford does that and then some.

by NateHST on Sep 13, 2010 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

I enjoyed the title of this FP

You’re definitely not putting on any airs with that one. I find the it disarming and pretty smart, actually.

by LowcountryJoe on Sep 12, 2010 4:52 AM PDT reply actions

Thanks

As NateHST comments, I’m not sure what money we should throw at Crawford either. But our pitchers, C and 1B are still relatively inexpensive, the Sheets and Chavez contracts are off the books, so if the As want to be a contender next year via a free agent signing he’s the best fit, and they should have money to spend.

Carlos Gonzalez would look nice in one of the corner outfield spots right now

by Miata71 on Sep 12, 2010 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions

The two FAs I'd love to see us pursue...

…are Jayson Werth & Orlando Hudson.

I would at least explore the possibility of trading for Matt Kemp, but not if it costs any of the “Big Four” Cahill/Gio/209/Anderson. I know that many A’s fans have casually floated the idea of trading one of them for offense, but the starters are, IMO, untouchable.

by HCF from Oakball on Sep 12, 2010 7:38 AM PDT reply actions

Why Werth over Crawford?

Not saying one is clearly better or wrong, but just wondering.

As for Kemp, sure if he’s cheap. But the As will have money to spend – in a “pure baseball” world (not the real world of business), their money is less valuable than their players. If they want to take advantage of the weak division, they should spend money.

Carlos Gonzalez would look nice in one of the corner outfield spots right now

by Miata71 on Sep 12, 2010 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions

Werth is cheaper and less years?

He will probably get 4/60, Crawford 7/100.

by PL78 on Sep 12, 2010 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions

OK, you agree with me then that Werth is worse than Crawford

but Werth will be cheaper. I can accept that. Either player would be an upgrade. And I"m not paying the salary. :-)

I wonder if dangling the “you can learn from the Greatest of All Time” card will help attract Crawford.

Carlos Gonzalez would look nice in one of the corner outfield spots right now

by Miata71 on Sep 12, 2010 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions

Cheaper and less reliant on speed to earn his keep

I worry about Crawford going into his 30s being able to continually steal 50+ bases a year. Without that, he is just an above average corner outfielder… like say David DeJesus… a good player but not worth $120 million.

Werth will also only get a 4-5 year deal, which is far more palatable than a 7-8 year deal that the A’s would have to offer Crawford (the Yankees can maybe do 6 but we can’t).

I have a feeling we sign neither because they are both getting a lot of attention. I forsee a trade or an under the radar signing… no doubt it will be a gamble, like every year.

by DrDoom on Sep 13, 2010 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions

Reasonable point. OTOH, Werth is older and relies more on power

and we know that power doesn’t play out well here.

Carlos Gonzalez would look nice in one of the corner outfield spots right now

by Miata71 on Sep 14, 2010 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions

I believe Werth has more power potential

and will be less expensive.

by HCF from Oakball on Sep 13, 2010 6:52 AM PDT up reply actions

I endorse this suggestion

by DrDoom on Sep 13, 2010 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions

If we were to add Werth/Kemp/Hudson...

Our team could look like this:

Coco – CF
Hudson – 2B
Barton – 1B
Kemp – LF
Werth – RF
Cust – DH
Kooz – 3B
Zook – C
Penny SS

Bench: Rajai/Sweeney/Rosales/Powell

by HCF from Oakball on Sep 13, 2010 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions

WHY IS PENNY BATTING 9TH?

Sorry, my eyes bleed whenever i see him batting 9th… He should get a shot at being the #2 hitter (coco- penny- barton, then shift every1 down 1)

by sums95 on Sep 13, 2010 5:31 PM PDT up reply actions

um

why?

This is not little league. The kid who strikes out the most is not the worst player on the team.

by eastcoasta'sfan on Sep 13, 2010 6:57 PM PDT up reply actions

Hudson...

…is a much better option as the two hitter.

by HCF from Oakball on Sep 13, 2010 7:48 PM PDT up reply actions

If we get any of the following players, we are upgrading:

Orlando Hudson
Adrian Beltre
Jeyson Werth
Carl Crawford
Magglio Ordonez

If we get as many of those 5 as we can we are taking this division quite easily. We only really need to get 2 of them to take the next step to become a contending 85+ win team.

by PL78 on Sep 12, 2010 11:39 AM PDT reply actions

Agree on Beltre - he almost made my list

But since he rejected the As last year there may be some bad blood. If not, take a run at him.

I don’t see O-Dog as that big an upgrade over Ellis, and stats agree. (For 2010 O-Dog is 2.5 WAR, Ellis is 1.9)

Mags is getting old.

Carlos Gonzalez would look nice in one of the corner outfield spots right now

by Miata71 on Sep 12, 2010 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions

Don't forget Dunn

He could be the DH. i wouldn’t count out Manny either since Beane tried to get him from the indians a few years ago.

by Arcman on Sep 12, 2010 7:58 PM PDT up reply actions

Dunn has said repeatedly that he doesn't want to DH

Telling him you want him to come to Oakland to DH is going to push him away. Lying to him about playing 1B or LF and then sticking him at DH is going to piss him off.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 12, 2010 8:13 PM PDT up reply actions

I did n't hear that about Dunn

If that’s true then his value goes down since he is a terrible defender. Hard to say what the FA market will be like this year but with so many DH’s on the market the a’s could get a bargain.

by Arcman on Sep 12, 2010 9:17 PM PDT up reply actions

I'd take Manny

He will be undervalued… People don’t seem to notice he can still hit. And the A’s might actually show up on ESPN if we had him.

by DrDoom on Sep 13, 2010 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions

ESPN doesn't matter...

but 1 mil+4.5 mil in incentives would be great (but wouldn’t happen)

by sums95 on Sep 13, 2010 5:33 PM PDT up reply actions

So

apparently Aramis Ramirez is planning to ~~scurry off the sinking ship~~ decline his option and hit the market this offseason.

Not saying good or bad because I haven’t studied his track record closely. Thoughts?

by PaulThomas on Sep 13, 2010 6:24 PM PDT reply actions

Where ever he signs

It’ll be for less than the $14.6 million he would have made if he stuck around in Chicago.

He turned 32 at the end of June and hasn’t played a full season since 2008. His fielding, when you take a close look at the UZR, has pretty much stayed constant. It’s the bat that’s atrophied. I’d at least be willing to listen to an argument explaining why his bat would bounce back next year. Realistically, I think there’s a good chance he costs as much as Kouz will over the next two seasons.

Although my guess would be Ramirez would be looking for a deal similiar to the one Beltre signed with Boston this past season.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 13, 2010 6:39 PM PDT up reply actions

If he wanted THAT deal, he'd just take the player option

That’s essentially what it is— a one-year deal with some minor financial protection in Year Two. He’s not going to take a $5M haircut just to leave the Cubs.

He’ll be looking for something around 3 years and $30M, is my guess. And given that he’s clearly interested in total guarantees rather than maxing out his per-year salary, you might even be able to tack on some cheap club options on the end of that.

by PaulThomas on Sep 13, 2010 8:10 PM PDT up reply actions

You know what, I think I could be persuaded to take that

I’ve always been an ARam fan and he has a terrible BABIP this year. Where does one find xBABIP? Of course it would be a health gamble and this is the A’s we’re talking about. And I’d much rather upgrade COF with Werth or Crawford.