Septemer 2nd, Athletics vs Yankees - Simulation

by Xeifrank on Sep 1, 2010 9:57 PM PDT

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Athletics and the Yankees using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 9:45 PM)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob
OAK	NYA	D.Braden vs C.Sabathia	NYA	65.87%	64.88%

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs both teams combined: 8.5
2. D.Braden total batters faced: 28.5
3. C.Sabathia total strikeouts: 7.5
4. Athletics number of bullpen pitchers used: 2.5
5. Athletics total number of hits: 7.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 NYA 3-2	51 OAK 7-4	101 OAK 8-0
2 NYA 4-3	52 OAK 7-3	102 NYA 10-6
3 NYA 2-1	53 NYA 7-0	103 OAK 9-8
4 NYA 5-4	54 NYA 8-4	104 NYA 11-0
5 NYA 4-2	55 OAK 6-1	105 OAK 10-3
6 NYA 3-1	56 NYA 8-5	106 NYA 11-5
7 OAK 3-2	57 OAK 7-2	107 OAK 9-1
8 NYA 6-5	58 NYA 9-2	108 NYA 12-4
9 OAK 4-3	59 OAK 4-0	109 NYA 10-9
10 NYA 5-3	60 NYA 9-3	110 NYA 10-7
11 NYA 4-1	61 NYA 9-1	111 OAK 10-2
12 NYA 5-2	62 NYA 8-6	112 OAK 10-5
13 OAK 2-1	63 NYA 9-4	113 OAK 10-6
14 NYA 1-0	64 OAK 5-0	114 NYA 13-3
15 OAK 4-2	65 NYA 8-0	115 NYA 11-6
16 OAK 5-4	66 NYA 10-2	116 NYA 12-5
17 NYA 6-3	67 OAK 8-4	117 NYA 10-8
18 NYA 2-0	68 OAK 7-1	118 NYA 13-2
19 NYA 5-1	69 NYA 10-3	119 NYA 13-4
20 OAK 5-3	70 OAK 8-3	120 NYA 12-0
21 OAK 3-1	71 OAK 8-2	121 OAK 11-3
22 NYA 3-0	72 OAK 8-6	122 NYA 13-1
23 NYA 6-4	73 NYA 9-5	123 OAK 10-1
24 NYA 6-2	74 NYA 9-0	124 OAK 9-0
25 NYA 7-6	75 OAK 8-5	125 OAK 10-7
26 NYA 6-1	76 OAK 8-7	126 NYA 13-5
27 NYA 4-0	77 NYA 10-1	127 OAK 10-8
28 OAK 5-2	78 NYA 9-8	128 OAK 11-5
29 OAK 4-1	79 OAK 6-0	129 OAK 11-4
30 OAK 6-5	80 NYA 10-4	130 OAK 11-2
31 NYA 5-0	81 NYA 11-3	131 NYA 11-7
32 OAK 6-3	82 NYA 9-6	132 NYA 14-3
33 NYA 7-4	83 NYA 11-2	133 NYA 11-8
34 NYA 7-3	84 OAK 8-1	134 NYA 14-2
35 NYA 7-2	85 OAK 9-3	135 OAK 10-9
36 OAK 6-4	86 OAK 9-4	136 NYA 13-0
37 NYA 7-5	87 NYA 10-0	137 NYA 14-1
38 NYA 7-1	88 NYA 11-1	138 OAK 11-6
39 NYA 6-0	89 NYA 10-5	139 OAK 11-7
40 OAK 6-2	90 OAK 9-2	140 NYA 12-6
41 OAK 1-0	91 NYA 9-7	141 NYA 13-6
42 OAK 5-1	92 OAK 9-6	142 NYA 11-10
43 OAK 2-0	93 NYA 11-4	143 OAK 12-3
44 NYA 8-2	94 OAK 7-0	144 OAK 12-4
45 NYA 8-3	95 OAK 9-5	145 OAK 11-1
46 NYA 8-7	96 NYA 12-2	146 NYA 15-2
47 NYA 8-1	97 OAK 9-7	147 OAK 10-0
48 OAK 7-6	98 OAK 10-4	148 NYA 14-4
49 OAK 3-0	99 NYA 12-1	149 NYA 12-7
50 OAK 7-5	100 NYA 12-3	150 NYA 15-1