Bobbling A's Recover To Make Winner Out Of "FIP-buster Cahill"
by Nico on Aug 8, 2010 4:05 PM PDT
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PrintFor the 3rd consecutive start, Trevor Cahill went at least 8 IP and did not allow an earned run. Yet the top of the 6th was nearly his, and the A's, undoing as a 0-0 duel between Cahill and Colby Lewis turned into a circus -- and not the good kind.
The inning started with an Elvis Andrus grounder bobbled in the hole by Cliff Pennington, ruled an error, then progressed with a Josh Hamilton RBI single that Rajai Davis felt was necessary to heave all the way to the plate when he had no chance. Kurt Suzuki then continued the frightened baseball's journey to everywhere by throwing down to 2B and right through into CF. A sac fly later it was 2-0, both runs very much unearned.
The A's fought back with a run in the bottom of the 6th and then made a winner out of Cahill in the 7th. After Pennington reached on Andrus' "I can bobble grounders to start innings too, you know" error and then Coco Crisp provided the clutchiest hit, an RBI double scoring Pennington from 1B. Then a Landon Powell sacrifice bunt (please to teach Rajai Davis how to do this?) and a Kurt Suzuki sacrifice fly -- gritty productive outs!!!!!!!! -- gave the A's a 3-2 lead.
Then came Michael Wuertz. Let's walk Bengie Molina to lead off the 9th, shall we? Then mayhap a one-out walk to Cristian Guzman? Off the bench came Vlad Guerrero to hit a sharp roller to SS. 6-4-3, ballgame.
Cahill is now 12-4 with a 2.56 ERA and has gone 26 consecutive innings without allowing an earned run. He has this message for FIP: "Kiss my grits!" Wow. Totally did NOT see Flo from "Mel's Diner" coming there.
Powell was in the game, batting 2nd, because Daric Barton left with "left shoulder spasms," sadly making him only the second most injured A's player today. The gold medal goes to Matt Watson, who was rushed to the hospital with what appears to be kidney stones. Travis Buck awaits instructions. So does Chris Carter. Jeff Larish asks, "Anyone need a 1Bman?" Stay tuned...
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First!
And let’s call up Carter. NOW!
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
Per StatCorner, Chris Carter is batting .264/.369/.538 (.907 OPS) in 493 PA with a .416 park adjusted wOBA.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Saw this when you posted earlier :)
But those numbers are so damn good that I love seeing them again
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Aug 8, 2010 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions
That’s why I just had to mention ’em. Shooty even mentioned him on the postgame show.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions
He mentioned statcorner and park-adjusted wOBA?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Nah, he just mentioned Carter.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions
What's his adjusted stat for the majors (MLE?)
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
According to this, it’s .218/.302/.432 (.734 OPS) and I don’t know the wOBA.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Any breakdown for after July 1st?
The aggregate statistics include the first part of the season when he was struggling.
My thoughts exactly
If you stick around here for about 5 minutes I’ll figure it out…
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Aug 8, 2010 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Baseball Prospectus says .237/.329/.470
minorleaguesplits says .218/.302/.432, but it’s .877 OPS in July and .774 in August
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Someone on the Rangers broadcast said Buck was coming to Oakland
He’s hitting second in the River Cats lineup and just singled after a leadoff double by Sogard.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
He'll keep running after he scores
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Matt Carson is giving me fuzzy, warm memories of Eric Patterson
Remember how he used to pop up? Remember that guys? Our E-Patt, always popping up in that great E-Patt way. :) :) :) :)
AWWW
After that, the Rangers are playing the Rays.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Assuming the NY/BOS game tonight ever ends.
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
If Barton has to go on the DL (hopefully that is not the case)
We should send down Watson and Carson, and bring up Carter, Larish, and Buck. I really think we can make a run at this thing…any possible improvements lurking on the waiver wire? Some bullpen help maybe?
Frank Cohen
TeamTICKERmlb.com
Your Effortless Baseball Connection
I don't mind Watson
He seems like he can hit lefties a bit. But, who knows if stats back that up. Do minors splits even exist?
Here you go
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Of COURSE Barton has to go on the DL-
He’s listed as ‘day-to-day’. As was Bailey, as was everyone else, including ‘drove my Chavvy to the levee but the levee was dry’.
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Aug 8, 2010 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions
with any luck
watson’s kidney stones will take a few days if they are bad enough. maybe he can go on the 15day DL (hope and pray).. no ill will of course. just looking for something a bit better than .200 BA
The A’s are 27-11 in day games.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 4:09 PM PDT reply actions
Newsflash: As management decides we have a chance, ALL day games rest of year!
I mean, attendance sucks anyway, right?
"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins
by justANotherAsFan on Aug 8, 2010 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions
hey, it's August, the A's are over .500
and they’re in second place.
Here’s to meaningful late season games!
by OaklandSi on Aug 8, 2010 4:12 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
(drinks Diet Coke to that)
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh, man!
I forgot Conor Jackson even existed! I wonder if he can be back in a week or two?
He’s playing or played in the AZL today.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Also, when did Colby Lewis get good?
Didn’t this guy suck an inordinate amount of ass with the A’s, and Rangers during his first go around?
It’s his first season being good, I think.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions
In North America anyway
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions
he played in japan the last couple of years i heard
maybe he learned something.
Maybe Dontrelle Willis could benefit.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions
bring him up!
no excuse now I agree with Shooty. Carter can’t hurt this team, can’t be any worse than Carson.
I doubt that they are worried about Carter hurting the team
They are likely more worried about hurting Carter.
Spending time with my nephew and the AN Crew on July 10th...PRICELESS!
by ohtobe21likehuston on Aug 8, 2010 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Carter has been removed from the game in Round Rock
Start the guessing.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
He and Barton are dead
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions
He's dead.
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
by OldhamA on Aug 8, 2010 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
If he does come up
Does he play right or left? Seems like Davis would be more useful in left.
Why?
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
More balls are hit to left, right?
Is that just a misconception? I imagine Davis would be the better defender, and could cover more ground to left than Carter would.
I've no idea where more balls are hit to.
I suppose there are more right handed batters in the league, but the LF tends to be worse than the RF (or at least that’s how I imagine it).
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
the ball comes off the bat straighter
for a righty to left or a lefty to right. righties to right or lefties to left tend to have a slice on the ball and it is more difficult to judge. davis in right would probably be better since there are more righties hitting to right than lefties to left.
clear as mud?
right fielders generally have better arms
helps stops the runner from going to 3rd
deoends on his arm.
does carter have a good arm.?
I've heard it's decent to a bit above average...
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Aug 8, 2010 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions
This is getting me excited!
I really hope he’s getting the call for Watson’s spot.
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Aug 8, 2010 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions
KLongworthCSN
#AdamRosales was not an option to Pinch-run for Barton – Geren says he was unavailable due to his ankle
half a minute ago via UberTwitter
CT can relax.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 4:19 PM PDT reply actions
How can he relax when Adam is hurting
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Okay, I meant he can relax with the “WHY WASN’T ROSY IN THERE” thing.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Literally
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions
I knew there was a reason Cust was starting.
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
Wut!?
Noooo
100% Athletics, 100% Baseball. 2009 Athletics, 40% Baseball.
Here he comes!
as long as he does not dive and miss shallow bloops, he will be an improvement right? And avoid walls.
Not really. Nobody is here.
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
wait a minute...
Zooey Deschanel!
Cluck 'em all and let the Chick sort 'em out - DMOAS
You're worried that you'll come off as nerdy as frack? On AN? That’s like being ashamed of your alcohol use at a meth convention. - danmerqury
by ChickenStanley on Aug 8, 2010 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Here you go.
sock puppets have never successfully defended castles, except when working with squirrels, which would never happen because squirrels know better than to trust sock puppets, except when their nipples have magical powers. -nm
by Leopold Bloom on Aug 8, 2010 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Jack Cust
I noticed something about Cust, and I’ve seen it since he got his power stroke back: he seems to have forgotten to guard the plate on 3-2 counts, particularly with two outs or runners on base. I understand trying to eke out a walk, but these pitches can go either way and frequently, when he does foul a ball off, the next one might be clearly ball four, or he might get a pitch to drive. This is exactly the pattern that pissed me (and others) off earlier in his career. On those 3-2 counts, he’d either keep the bat on his shoulder and get called out, or swing for the fences and miss.
I wish he’d learn, at those time, to give up the long ball, and become the .300 hitting singles hitter he was earlier in the year. Save the big swings for earlier in the count and protect the plate on those close pitches.
Whoa. That's some serious micromanagement there.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Not really though
There are plenty of big hitters who have learned a 2 strike approach.
I look back on that monster season Bret Boone had and remember that he became really good at shortening up with 2 strikes and it made him all the more effective.
If Cust could learn to shorten his swing for contact with 2 strikes, it could make him an even more valuable player.
OF course, if he could learn to bunt at all then he could get a hit every time they put the shift on him…
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Aug 8, 2010 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions
OK, if he learned to fix all his weaknesses he'd be better, but that's probably really hard to do
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions
I'd have agreed with you...
..but not after watching Cust in action earlier this year. He was able to adjust his swing and become a different kind of hitter. I keep thinking how scary this guy would be if he combined the two approaches.
Cust OPS with 2 strikes by year
2007 — .533 (1-2 count), .641 (2-2 count), .587 (3-2 count), .589 (2 strikes), .912 Overall
2008 — .564, .506, .674, .560 (2 strikes), .851 Overall
2009 — .384, .435. .467, .440 (2 strikes), .773 Overall
2010 — .472, .361, .736, .529 (2 strikes), .881 Overall
It looks to me that his 2 strike numbers just got better or worse with his overall numbers and a change in approach in 2010 didn’t have much impact
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Facts FTW!
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Doesn't look like that to me
In fact, it looks like the change in approach, which brought about the higher average earlier this year, also helped his OPS to soar.
His 2 strike OPS in 2007 was higher relative to total OPS than in 2010
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions
That was his first year before adjustments
And frankly, given his incredible first couple of weeks before pitchers woke up, when he was the reincarnation of David Ortiz, I’d be very skeptical about comparing 2007 with any other year in his career.
OK it was higher in 2008 as well
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 6:55 PM PDT up reply actions
Imagine how much higher it would be...
…if he protected the plate.
hee
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 10:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Brett Boone was on a massive amount of PEDs.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions
PEDs made him shorten up with two strikes???
I’d speculate the opposite would happen.
Blez: Most folks seem to believe that the big flaw with the 2010 Oakland A's will be the lack of any power.
Beane: They believe it because it's true.
by One won lost won on Aug 8, 2010 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions
HGH makes it easier to see balls
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions
/joke about.. H1st beat me to it
m*****f***ing c***s***ing peanut butter and jelly!! f*** f*** f***!!!
How does HGH make it easier to see the ball?
I’d never heard that before.
Not that it’s not true, I just hadn’t heard that.
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Aug 8, 2010 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Some studies show that it yields sustained vision improvement
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Wow
That’s fascinating!
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Aug 8, 2010 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions
just looked it up
HGH can improve vision, though not for everyone…. and it may just be for those with diminishing sight due to age and not for younger individuals.
Yay!
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions
right im just saying that that might be one explanation not that its what did happen.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 4:55 PM PDT up reply actions
but what about shortening up on the bat?
why do PEDs affect your mental strategy?
OK, I get the “vision” part, but..??
Blez: Most folks seem to believe that the big flaw with the 2010 Oakland A's will be the lack of any power.
Beane: They believe it because it's true.
by One won lost won on Aug 10, 2010 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions
that last strikeout was a terrible call. cant blame him there.
actually i cant blame him on a few strikeouts lately. some of these have been awful umpiring…
They're still kinda borderline
And by now he should be aware of inconsistent umpiring, particularly on 3-2 counts.
That doesn't mean he should be swinging at pitches that aren't actually strikes
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I'm not so sure about that....
Jack Cust obviously has a much better eye than most of the umpires. But he should also know by now that umpires tend not to respect his eye. Thus, a lot of pitches that are just out of the strike zone - and we’re not talking obvious balls - that might be called strikes even though Cust knows damn well they’re balls. From what I’ve seen, umpires dislike the idea of “trolling for walks,” and often call those borderline pitches, or close to borderline pitches, as strikes. It may not be fair, but by this time, Cust’s had three years of those kinds of calls. When he’s hitting the ball well, the calls go with him. But when he’s aiming for the walks, they don’t.
Didn't see it
but what makes me laugh is every time an A’s strikes out looking, and I mean every single times, someone says, “It was a bad call, it was outside”
Fool me once, Shame on you
Fool me twice Shame on me
Fool me three times, protect the fucking plate.
That is all. That’s my only gripe for the day.
Yeah, screw Cust and his .400+ OBP!!!111one1
m*****f***ing c***s***ing peanut butter and jelly!! f*** f*** f***!!!
Every time Cust strikes out looking on a ball 8 inches outside the zone, and I mean every single time, some one says
“zomg too close to take protect the plate blah blah”
The pitch was nowhere NEAR the zone.
Pam liked my old sig better.
Sometimes I feel one was "too close to take,"
but that one was “take it because it’s ball 4, period.”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
right.
and honestly even the “too close to take” ones, with Cust at least, are generally not in the zone or pitches that he knows he can’t do a thing with, so hope the ump doesn’t miss it.
Someone in the game thread said that Cust would benefit greatly from an electronic strike zone. I agree completely.
Pam liked my old sig better.
Absolutely
Under those conditions, he wouldn’t have to worry about umpire blindness.
Just like to point out that the month of August so far
is not producing much contact.
18 AB 3 Hits 5 BB’s and 12 K’’s.
41 percent K’s since July 1st.
Spin it any way you want, that is not very good.
I hope there is an improvement in the near future. Time to be down the order to the 5 or 6 hole.
I don't agree with the last sentence
The A’s simply don’t have someone else who makes more sense to bat #3-#4 against a RHP.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
If he's going to remain there
And I agree, we have no alternatives, then he needs to swing the bat like he was earlier.
They will not tolerate 40 plus percent K’s in that position and if they do, they shouldn’t.
He was fine until he said he was seeing the ball really well and then jinxed himself.
Carter's MLE if we take his line from July 1 on reads:
.258/.346/.494 for an OPS of .840.
Of course SSS, but encouraging nonetheless
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
The .799 of BB-Pro sounds reasonable to me and it takes the whole year into account
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Before anyone gets their hopes up too much about Carter, we have to wait to hear more first
Last of the Ninth - Photography
No. We must speculate wildly now.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
What about the "He's dead" posts?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions
The yin to the wild speculation yang.
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
He's clearly dead.
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
hate to brag but that's my cousin.
That’s why I wanted him to get the complete game! lol
That “error” on Pennington was BS. Should have been a hit.
I want to see some Chris Carter ASAP. And i don’t mean the next Rivercats game i go to.
by chri5 on Aug 8, 2010 4:30 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Join us in the CT thread if you haven’t already.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 4:32 PM PDT reply actions
Cahill has a 56% ground ball rate.
FIP doesn’t care about that, which is why it’s (somewhat) poorer at predicting pitching skill than xFIP or tRA (though far easier to calculate by hand).
Those two metrics think he’s basically a #2 starter, which (if not all that and a kettle of fish too) is pretty good for a 22-year-old.
However, a .206 BABIP is completely ridiculous.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
um stat corner has his tRA+ at 100 before the game
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Do you still think Cahill is average?
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Like I said I think hes benefiting hugely from really strong defense and park
and is slightly above average.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Haha
That’s some really funny stuff. “Slightly above average”… That is just plain ole silly.
by Colorado Fan on Aug 8, 2010 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
He might be average then. But "slightly above average" isn't silly at all.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Cahill
People put the bat on his pitches, but they don’t barrel it up. His FIP is going to be higher than his ERA for many, many years. Get used to it.
by Colorado Fan on Aug 10, 2010 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions
but so is the movement on his pitches
i mean the 2 seemer/sinker/change up all look identical and range 15 MPH in difference. its pretty much un-hittable.
the two-seamer and "sinker" probably look identical
because they’re the same thing.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
entirely false. even if the grip is the same.
different velocities and more pronated action on the sinker.
don't have much to say other than "you're wrong."
You’re wrong.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
gotta agree with his majesty here
also you really don’t pronate your arm on either.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 9, 2010 8:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah Coco pulling balls off the wall has nothing to do wtih him pitching well today.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 4:35 PM PDT reply actions
That’s one play?
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Well thats an ER and RISP in the first and an increased pitch count
Hell the Coli probably kept that ball from being a 2 run HR though it is much more fair during the day. But Pennington’s error should have been a hit which means that those two runs should have been earned. Basically what im saying is today was really not that far from a 4ER day.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions
"Basically what im saying is today was really not that far from a 4ER day."
lol
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones."
-BB 07/27/05
I know that's why I hate him
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions
He’s doing A LOT better than what it says.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions
I hate that
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions
For all we know there may be an evening out period where Cahill comes back down to earth. Maybe he'll be more unlucky.
I think as long as he gets a lot of ground balls with lower strikeout totals, he stands a reasonable chance of continuing to pitch better than he’s “supposed to.”
Last of the Ninth - Photography
or you know he could be pitching exactly how the metric says he is
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Justin Masterson has a 5.40 ERA and a 4.02 tERA and a 63.5% GB Rate
Could it be that the Indians defense has something to do with that? Put him in front of the A’s defense and you’d have a very different outcome methinks.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions
this this this.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Enough for one to be an All-Star level pitcher and the other to be mediocre?
I don’t know about that.
At some point it becomes about more than the defense and the ballpark, at least to me.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I dunno Brooks Robinson, Mark Belanger and Paul Blair made
Dave McNally and Pat Dobson look pretty good. Defense really matters a lot.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions
As usual the truth is probably very much in between
Masterson has probably been hurt some by the defense, and he’s also probably given up more hard hit balls than tRA knows. Cahill has had his “lucky moments,” has benefited some from defense and park, and has also generally just been terrific.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
OK, but this is all speculation. Sure it's possible or it's also
possible that Cahill has pitched slightly better than Masterson but that Kouzmanoff, Pennington, Ellis and Barton are a million times better than Peralta, Cabrera, Marte, Valbuena and LaPorta.
I kinda think the latter explains most of the difference.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 5:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Most of the grounders are routine grounders and they were today except for the errors.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes it's possible that Masterson gives up tougher grounders
than Cahill, or it’s possible that their defense really sucks.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Some grounders get into the outfield.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 5:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes, especially if your infielders have no range
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions
time after time studies show that pitchers have no control of whether grounders are routine or hard.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 5:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, but I've watched all of Cahill's starts
and it’s pretty clear to me that he is consistently pitching his way into success. He generally has had fastball command with great movement, a very good changeup, a curve that has hitters off-balance, is working both sides of the plate, is not falling into a pattern — and as a result has induced a lot of weak contact and routine ground balls. Just give the guy due credit for what he’s done; it’s been special.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Are you saying you expect him to continue with a 2.56 ERA
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 5:19 PM PDT up reply actions
I know Masterson couldn’t put up a 2.56 ERA, 0.98 WHIP or .192 BAA even if those stats supposedly mean less than tRA and FIP.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions
those stats mean hugely less because of A) Park and B) defense
and how do you know that Masterson couldn’t do those things. That is just a wild and ridiculous assertion.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Nope.
But that doesn’t mean the 2.56 ERA is a fluke. Every pitcher has a game now and then when they just don’t have it and they get lit up. Cahill’s turn hasn’t yet come. When it does, he’ll host a 3.1 IP, 9 hit, 6 ER funfest and suddenly his ERA and his BAA will look more “normal.” But when he has a start, or a 4-start run, that isn’t very good, it won’t mean these starts were flukes.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Waddell and I aren't saying their flukes
were saying that factors he cant control are masking his true level of production.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Hmm
Wasn’t Cahill’s ERA also better than his expected level of production last year as well? Could it be that there’s something to that, specifically for Cahill? Of course the sample size is not huge.
I love my Oakland A's
by Philip Christy on Aug 8, 2010 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions
the varriance is not that hight when you consider defense and park
notice how much better cahill got when the A’s weren’t playing OCab and Giambi?
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Is this also happening for all A's pitchers?
I love my Oakland A's
by Philip Christy on Aug 8, 2010 5:43 PM PDT up reply actions
yes
The A’s as a whole should be giving up nearly 60 runs more if they were playing in a neutral park with a league average defense.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions
they also should be scoring an amount of runs more.
Park factors work both ways.
Needs moar dingerz.
which has what to do with the A;s pitching?
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 6:59 PM PDT up reply actions
The sample size on BABIP is not anywhere near large enough
Right now you would be looking at about 20% his actual production so far, and 80% regression to the mean. At which point his expected future BABIP would be well within normal range.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
Right. And I'm saying his true level of production,
while not as incredible as his results, are closer to his results than they are to his tRA or whatever you wish to look at. And that’s all I have to say about it at the moment.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
And I've yet to see you justify that position
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 6:44 PM PDT up reply actions
He has justified it, just not
with arguments that you agree with.
We get that you disagree with Nico and his way of judging and evaluating players, and that’s fine. But just because he doesn’t use the sort of methodology you prefer is no reason to imply that he hasn’t put forth a coherent argument at all.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
Um
just because he doesn’t use the sort of methodology you prefer is no reason to imply that he hasn’t put forth a coherent argument at all.
thats kinda the definition of an incoherent arguement
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions
The definition of a coherent argument
is “one that uses methodology you agree with?”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
no its the fact that you don't have a methodology
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 10:04 PM PDT up reply actions
I have no idea why this kind of folksy dreck gets so much creedence in pretty much al walks of life
The difference between Cleveland’s defense and our own is SIXTY FRICKING RUNS. SIXTY.
Its also 10% easier to hit at the Jake than the Coli.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 5:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Folksy sayings are given creedence over real arguments with logic
I care about the pursuit of truth and take a logocentric view of baseball. Logic is the path to understanding. Dismissing logic out of hand with “well I know that not to be true because I just don’t think it is and don’t have a valid reason for thinking what I do” denies the deeper examination of whether the logic presented actually is sound.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 5:49 PM PDT up reply actions
I know you take a very cold, logical, analytical view of baseball
And that’s why you often miss or ignore things you can’t just put a number on.
There is a balance that exists between stats and non-stats and your explanation for the other side is dishonest and self-serving.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
How is it dishonest?
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Stats don't always translate to real world results
and vice-versa.
Spending time with my nephew and the AN Crew on July 10th...PRICELESS!
by ohtobe21likehuston on Aug 8, 2010 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions
In the real world of science labs,
you try to get the variables down to 1 if you can. In baseball, there are always so many variables going at once, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that stats can only do so much — whether it’s being accurate in explaining the past, informing the present, or predicting the future.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
actually stats do a pretty damn good job at predicting the future
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions
We have stats that tell us how large a percentage of things stats can explain
That’s what’s neat about modern statistics.
Those meta-stats tell us that baseline stats like tRA are actually “really fucking good” (possibly not a real quote) at predicting how good pitchers are.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
But you're also acting as if
“what has happened” is necessarily “will will happen.” If Cahill gets lit up his next start, I’m not going to just assume that he threw the ball precisely the same way, under precisely the same physical and mental conditions, and that “well, his tRA finally caught up with him.”
It’s always unlikely that any pitcher who has thrown especially great for a stretch will continue to do so at that level. Both natural regression, and the constant game of adjustments-counter adjustments, work against it.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Nothing I've said on this thread
makes any kind of normative claim like “what has happened is what will happen.” That would be a very weird and innumerate claim for me to make.
tRA, in combination with those meta-stats that I mentioned, says that about 75% of the totality of what he’s doing is very similar to what pitchers who are roughly #2 starters (I guess #3s after park adjustment, as DFA alluded to with the tRA+ figure) do. Some amount of the rest is, has to be, pure randomness (and batter skill, which is not literally random but is random from the pitcher’s perspective). There is very little room left for “skill which is not captured by tRA.” Not zero, but not much, either.
It’s literally not mathematically possible for there to be much in the way of “other as-yet-undetermined skills out there.” If there were, tRA could not work as a predictive tool to the degree that it does/has.
This is not something like the rate of expansion of the universe, which can’t currently be explained without speculative constructs like dark matter. There, we know there’s something we’re missing, we just don’t know what. Here, there’s no missing something asking to be explained.
And no, Cahill’s performance is not that something. It’s far too small a phenomenon to require speculative explanations when the obvious one— that he’s been kind of lucky so far in his career— is standing around waving at us. If there were lots of Cahills running around, those meta-stats that I’ve mentioned a few times would look different and there would be a bigger chunk of performance which would fall into the category of “things we can’t yet explain.”
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
by PaulThomas on Aug 8, 2010 8:39 PM PDT up reply actions 5 recs
This is a fantastic explanation
and strongly recced.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 10:05 PM PDT up reply actions
done
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 10:20 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't quite agree with this
Meta-stats do not rule out outliers in any sense. It’s possible Cahill is an outlier but that’s obviously not the likely outcome.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
The point is not that Trevor Cahill's BABIP is unsustainable,
although it is. The BABIP leader over the last three calendar years is Ted Lilly at .271. The odds of Cahill’s BABIP being outside that range are so small as to be not worth bothering with.
The underlying point here is about a mathematical fact: that the measurable predictive value of tRA necessarily implies that there cannot be these large, nebulous “dark matter”-like factors out there that tRA does not see.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
Because it's not as simple as your generally dismissive quote, which is basically a strawman
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Nico has not given any explanation to what part of Cahills performance is defense and park
he just says that you cant explain Cahills performance compared to outcomes by defense and park without actually making an argument.
Seems pretty accurate to me.
Now if Nico wanted to actually make an argument as to what tRA or FIP was missing that led to an inaccurate portrayal of Cahill’s performance I would love to discuss it. Dismissing it out of hand with folksy witticisms is garbage IMO
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 6:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Sometimes things aren't clearly explainable no matter how much you want them to be
Sometimes people can make statements without having to go into deep explanation about it.
I don’t know if Nico or anyone else can actually show what tRA or FIP are missing regarding Cahill’s performance. I know I can’t. I also know I don’t care to.
I can sit here and tell you that there’s more to what he’s doing than just the defense and ballpark. Not all of his games are pitched in the Coliseum, and if you remember he recently shut the Rangers down in Arlington as well.
I can sit here and tell you that part of it is Cahill’s own growth as a pitcher who actually knows what he’s doing out there with the command to help, and he’s been effective enough that even if he’s not getting certain results that make certain formulas look better, he’s still getting great results and some of that IS because of what he’s doing. Will it balance out somewhat? I’m sure it will. He may still outperform what he “should” be doing, though.
Take it or leave it, but spare us the attitude over you not liking “folksy, feel-good” stuff or the tired “I’m going to believe what I believe even though I have no reason to” line.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Actually I can explain that
BTW
I don’t know if Nico or anyone else can actually show what tRA or FIP are missing regarding Cahill’s performance. I know I can’t. I also know I don’t care to.
I can sit here and tell you that there’s more to what he’s doing than just the defense and ballpark.
This is the exact same thing as
"I’m going to believe what I believe even though I have no reason to" line.
You believe that because why?
Road ERA 3.55
Home ERA 1.88
Road FIP 4.89
Home FIP 3.41
Also Cahill has homer issues with RHB and it is 25% harder to hit a HR at the Coli than in a neutral park for RHB
Road HR/9 1.28
Home HR/9 .29
SSS on all of this BTW
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions
ugg that second paragraph should also be blockquoted
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions
That looks to me like he's still been pretty damned solid on the road
Last of the Ninth - Photography
The FIP is really quite bad as league average is 4.14
now FIP will under rate him because of his GB preferences, but considering the HUGE HUGE HUGE HR split you have to think that his tRA would much much more like below average. SSS and using H/R splits is generally bad analysis but you brought up the split so I just wanted to show that there has been a huge difference between the two.
ERA is a pretty terrible stat.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 6:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah
One of the problems is he gave up the 3 homers in Toronto in his first start of the season. The only other times he gave up more than one was twice in June (once at home to the Yankees, once on the road in St. Louis).
I know you can’t just throw out the bad stat without it affecting the rest, but to Cahill’s credit the home run split is much better when you consider this.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
The last time we went around this much
about how good a SP really was, the pitcher was Dana Eveland. Just sayin’.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
a large part of that was that braden was an average pitcher
you said he wasn’t guess what he is.
You also said Giambi could hit 300 if he wanted to last year.
everyone is wrong sometimes.
With regard to Eveland I actually learned something btw, that the reason that the 10% HR/FB rate should be regressed to is not because pitchers with a high HR/FB rate get sent down artificially causing the sample to remain pretty constant. Because of that Im much more hesitant to regress HR/FBs especially for players without a demonstrated level of talent.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 6:42 PM PDT up reply actions
DFA, you say you learned something on Eveland.
You had drawn conclusions about him which you felt confident in. Then later when those conclusions turned out to be wrong, you analyzed and found out why, and you realized that there was something more that you weren’t considering.
Judging from that experience, might you not entertain the possibility that your conclusions about Cahill, certain as you are about them now, are also incomplete, and some time in the future you will discover something that you are overlooking now?
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
It is possible that Im wrong but you should still privelage my analysis over Nico and Flashfire's
Its just unlikely and Ill explain why. I didn’t come up with these numbers haphazardly. Other people who are far smarter than me did and they tested them against all of the data and showed very high explanatory value in tRA. Furthermore there is an entire community of people that are checking and rechecking the relevance of the statistics that I use, providing even more of a failsafe against being wrong. The metrics that I use to determine how good Cahill suffer from excruciatingly high levels of scrutiny, like peer reviewed journals in some cases. So thats the basis of my argumentation.
The basis of Nico and Flashfires’ arguments is what they see. I believe that it is impossible for them to watch enough baseball to make an accurate judgment on the degree above or below average that Cahill has pitched both for not enough time and it is impossible to see the levels that defense and park effect play especially when they only see one park and defense on a regular basis. Furthermore, the act of watching the game on television skews dramatically things like observable defensive value due to camera angles and camera work. Finally what they see isn’t really checked at all in their mind, there isn’t really any peer review for the decisions they made.
What Nico and Flashfire then do is cherry pick data that agrees with them. Its impossible not to from their model of analysis because they don’t look at comprehensive metrics at all and stats will always be this way if you make visual conclusions first and then look at the data.
So while I might make analytical errors by not for example regressing something the way I should, those are rarer because of the way that I go about my analysis than what Nico or Flashfire do, simply because I have a methodological process that they do not.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 10:31 PM PDT up reply actions
also
If you, Nico, or anyone else just said the A’s have been playing well when Cahill has been pitching, I enjoy it and I don’t really care why, I would totally respect that and leave them alone. However, people aren’t doing that, they are making assertions about Cahill’s actual level of performance and taking swipes at stats in the process so yeah im going to defend the logocentric approach.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Fair enough
I’m not really looking for a fight on this. I’m more than happy to see Cahill keep doing what he’s doing and leave it at that in the long run.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
What Cahill has done this season has been remarkable
Hes found a breaking ball that works in the bigs, gotten way way more ground balls, struck out more guys, and cut down his homer rate and transformed himself from literally one of the if not the worst pitcher in the bigs to someone who is slightly above average proving me wrong a long the way. Very impressive. Like Ive said I expect his peripherals to improve next year.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 6:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Works for me
I don’t think any of us expected this much this fast from him.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I like this comment
Really, I think all we want is to be able to take a guy who has progressed remarkably far remarkably fast, and has treated us to ace-like results, and to be able to just appreciate and enjoy that without minimizing it in any way. He’s been a true bright spot; what the future holds is anybody’s guess.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I think you wanted to say something nice about
Cahill and felt offended when someone else said that the nice thing you said wasn’t true.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 6:48 PM PDT up reply actions
So basically insted of playing nice you decided to push more buttons again
great. Im going to try to ignore some of that and answer in a calm collected manner so read what follows as such.
has treated us to ace-like results
I think a lot of our debates have to do with defining results and performance. My explanation results and performance are what would happen with a neutral park and a neutral defense. Your results are about what I call outcomes. The outcome has been far above average with Cahill. I don’t think its fair to credit Cahill with Coco’s defense, etc. Therefore I care about performance in a vacuum.
I think this also is because I don’t get to watch a lot of games and I enjoy the baseball season more than individual baseball games since havent had a TV in years, I don’t get to go to very many games, and just got back to the bay so I can here Korachs great voice. I watch the season. You watch the games.
to be able to just appreciate and enjoy that without minimizing it in any way.
To point out true level of performance in no way minimizes anything. It just merely is what it is. When I say Cahill isn’t as good as his numbers thats not a slight against him, it just is. Just like saying Dallas Braden isn’t a perfect game level pitcher, isn’t a slight against him, even if he’s thrown one.
what the future holds is anybody’s guess.
There are some very smart people (slackman etc) who are far smarter than me that do a pretty good job of predicting what will be next, and to suggest that those attempts, just because they aren’t always accurate are just as good as gut and intuition I think is disingenuous.
Furthermore if you want to avoid these debates, I suggest that you stop taking swipes at people and stats in your posts.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 6:55 PM PDT up reply actions
Lowering his HR rate and figuring out how to get LHs out
have been his biggest accomplishments this season, and I think they both indicate good things ahead for Cahill. He won’t sustain his BABIP, but he’s reduced his BB/9 and HR/9 while slightly increasing his K/9. That’s a really good combination, and it makes me optimistic overall about Cahill.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
As I said in my first comment here,
being 22 and slightly above average is quite positive (and certainly far better than last year, when he was clearly too green to be a major league caliber pitcher).
Just, you know, let’s not get ahead of ourselves here. He’s not pitching on the level that Anderson and Gonzalez are yet, for instance, which says as much positively about how good they look as it does anything about Cahill.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
I'm familiar with the term "logocentric"
from deconstruction in philosophy or literature, but I don’t understand what it means in the context of baseball analysis. Can you point me to something that explains what you mean by the term?
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
Its not really an exact fit and I could be botching it
but my understanding of logocentrism is that its basically privileging constructions of truth (things like stats for example) that can be tested by reason over what one can feel.
You are way way more knowledgeable on these kinds of things so if Im botching it it would be good to know.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 10:37 PM PDT up reply actions
It could be that they hit Masterson harder (14.7 line drive percentage compared to 14 for Cahill) and that Cahill has better pitches.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions
You're saying 14 is meaningfully lower than 14.7?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions
I meant to say 17.4 percent, but it is 14.7 for Masterson instead of 17.4 anyway. Sorry.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions
tRA takes into account batted ball profiles.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions
why do you think I care about FIP? tRA is a better metric.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions
is tRA the same as tERA?
and i was thinking although it might not make that much of an impact on the various weights each out has, but doesn’t coors field slightly skew the stats, because they didn’t always play with the humidor
When we played softball, I’d steal second base, feel guilty and go back.
- Woody Allen
by rhymeswithelephant on Aug 8, 2010 8:55 PM PDT up reply actions
tRA and tERA are "centered" on different baselines
tRA is centered on MLB average Run Average, while tERA is centered on MLB average Earned Run Average. FIP and xFIP are “centered” in this way as well.
tERA was created because tRA figures look “off” to people who’ve spent their whole lives looking at ERA statistics. It saves people the need to mentally translate tRA numbers into the kind of numbers that they’re familiar with.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
thank you
When we played softball, I’d steal second base, feel guilty and go back.
- Woody Allen
by rhymeswithelephant on Aug 8, 2010 10:06 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't hate Cahill. I don't really hate any baseball player except the following list
Barry Bonds
Arod
Clemens
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions
shit forgot one.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions
ugg that wasn't suppose to post
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions
LOL. It's ok
I’ll offer an “AJ exemption” on that one.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
TY
but the idea that you think someone is getting lucky, or that their performance is unsustainable means you hate them is really silly. Its hard to really hate someone and when I do I like to really dedicate myself to doing it. Baseball players generally speaking are just not worth it.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions
That's only fair.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
What if someone really, really hates Justin Upton's brother?
What kind of exception would you offer on that one?
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
I'm pretty sure Joe Maddon hates Justin Upton's brother.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
why don't you do this for every pitcher
if everything went against him, he would have given up like 10 runs!!!
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones."
-BB 07/27/05
If not more
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions
yeah, if not for that play cahill might have given up one earned run in 8 innings against one of the league's top offensive teams....
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones."
-BB 07/27/05
also the error on Pennington was not a good call.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions
All he had to do was get the ball in his glove which seemed routine and yet he couldn’t do it. That’s why he was charged with an error.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions
and if it wasn't an error
he would have given up an earned run on a ground ball that got by the shortstop and one of the top two hitters in the league hitting a single to shallow left field, wow.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones."
-BB 07/27/05
who later scored so yeah that would be 2 ER.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions
later scored, how?
how does he score on a sac fly after a single, and it’s an earned run?
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones."
-BB 07/27/05
well he would have scored from second on the single
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions
He only scored because the defense decided to throw the ball around
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
not really there were two hits to follow.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions
It could've gone either way
Maybe he doesn’t throw the runner out, but he didn’t even get the chance to by clanking the grounder. I have no problem with the error there.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I think as long as he gets the ball in the glove, it’s not an error.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions
ESPN is talking about WPA. Oh, my.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 4:39 PM PDT reply actions
Kind of stat they probably love.
It’s proves so and so is “clutch” and has grit.
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Aug 8, 2010 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions
I like the taste of grits in the morning
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Not sure if this means anything
But Recker was also pulled for seemingly no reason before his first AB….was he injured?
Frank Cohen
TeamTICKERmlb.com
Your Effortless Baseball Connection
He's coming!
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Johnny Doskow reported he was on his way to the locker room with the trainer
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Ok that explains it
I was gonna say…. haha….any news on Carter?
Frank Cohen
TeamTICKERmlb.com
Your Effortless Baseball Connection
Though Doskow did say after the 5-hour game last night in Albuquerque followed by a very early trip to Round Rock...
…a lot of players were really worn out. He speculated that could be part of it too.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Why would he even start the game in that case though?
He didn’t even take the field, did he?
Frank Cohen
TeamTICKERmlb.com
Your Effortless Baseball Connection
It's possible it's fatigue
But I’d think if he was that worn out he wouldn’t have been in the starting lineup at all.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Bats in the first inning
Doesn’t come out to field. Just SEEMS like a strained something or the other.
The suspense is killing me!
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Aug 8, 2010 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions
susanslusser
Hmmm…. Chris Carter was replaced in left field by Corey Wimberly. After one at-bat. In the fourth inning. #athletics
less than a minute ago via web
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Is that a plane to Seattle or an injury?
I don’t like either option, but the first is MUCH more palatable than the second
Needs moar dingerz.
I've been cleared to say this here
Actually, the A’s just signed me to go stand around in LF and try to look better than Jack Cust. They couldn’t find anyone else on short notice.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
JOHNNY DOSKOW'S COMING??????????
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Jonathan Ely?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Sweet Eli Whitney's nose!
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
Hide your heart now.
...being a role model I probably wouldn't recommend eating dirt. But at the same time, I'm not trying to be a role model. I'm just trying to eat some dirt.
Coco Crisp’s leaping catch at the wall was the number four play on Baseball Tonight, by the way.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 4:54 PM PDT reply actions
thank you ct.
110 is just a number, he was dominant
Carson needs to go. We are 7.5 games back and we can make it even closer by beating up on the Mariners. We need to put the best lineup out their possible and that doesn't include Carson. They need to make some call ups.
by duballers23 on Aug 8, 2010 5:01 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
This
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Aug 8, 2010 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions
I think Carter is ready, but not Taylor. I’d bring up Carter and Buck for Watson and Carson. If Barton has to go on the DL, then I’d bring up Larish.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Discuss it in the CT thread.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Boo
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Feels like it never left.
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
I think a reasonable approach would be
to call up Carter now, start him at 1B Monday night if Barton is day-to-day, sit him Tuesday against Felix, start him Wednesday night either at 1B or LF, and then once Barton’s good to go, start him in LF against every LHP and against most RHPs. Basically set him up to succeed best you can and get him a lot of playing time but not necessarily “every day, you’re the savior!” time.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Good approach
I think that’ll be a smart way to get him going.
Will it happen though?
Of course not.
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Aug 8, 2010 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm OK with this
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Looks like M's are going to put out
Fister, Felix, French.
F em.
Now that Fister has come back to earth
It’s time to kill any confidence he’s got left.
And then just pitch a little better than Felix.
French is the only thing keeping us away from a sweep!
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Aug 8, 2010 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Fister? I'm Frenching her in two days!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Here's a FUN SO FUN OH MY GOODNESS FUN fact about Fister
the first batter of an inning is OPSing .400 off Fister this season.
Is it wrong to expect the A's to sweep the Mariners?
The FairWeather Channel - Sports Comics and Bandwagon Forecast
Their offense puts up like a .296 wOBA
and this is adjusted for home park.
They don’t got no success against ANY pitcher, let alone the A’s nice ones.
Needs moar dingerz.
Yeah, just take two out of three and it’s all good.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 5:19 PM PDT up reply actions
not if you want to win the division. you have to play like 800 ball from here on out.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions
I know the division is out of the picture unless the Rangers turn into something resembling the Royals.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 5:26 PM PDT up reply actions
then whats the point of taking two out of three?
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 5:35 PM PDT up reply actions
I want the team to play well and finish in second place. (I know, that hurts our chances at a higher draft pick.)
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions
not only a higher draft pick. It could very well prevent us from signing a good FA or cost us our pick entirely.
So I think you really should either want 800 ball or a total collapse.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 5:40 PM PDT up reply actions
I’m hoping for 1.000 ball as always.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions
frankly I'd prefer a team that plays over .500 bal and finishes second
to one who flat out sucks more than all other teams and gets a #1 draft pick.
Wait -- you want your team to win?
Odd.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Oh so you don't want us to be able to sign type A Free Agents?
I thought everybody here always complained about the lack of star players? Hmm good to know.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 5:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Explain to us people that don’t understand how the A’s finishing 83-79 will hurt us in free agency if we don’t finish 73-89.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions
If you have a top 15 pick you don't have to give it up if you sign a type A Free agent
the cost of your pick is ~$7m. Thats money that you have to factor in to any offer to a FA. Many have pointed out that its hard to get free agent hitters here and having to subtract 7m from you offer isn’t really conducive to landing one.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions
And what's the impact on revenues of finishing with 73 wins rather than 83?
On the ability to get FA to want to come? To get your players to want to stay? To get San Jose, Oakland or other city to want you?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 6:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Well I don't want SJ to want us, so WINZZZ?
the FA perspective is probably the only one that matters
but I would say that the cost of not losing the draft pick and the pick being higher would probably outweigh.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 6:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Do we want our fans to want us?
How about Oakland? In fact if a team really lost games on purpose I’d stop supporting them. It’s immoral.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 6:57 PM PDT up reply actions
well you don't tell them... that would be silly.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 7:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Really there is no incentive for players to follow this sort of path
They would have no guarantee to still be on the team to reap the benefits of the better draft pick, and since their future paychecks are tied to how well they play, they have to always play to do their best.
The only way a plan like this could work is if the GM put a manager in place that could consistently make bad decisions in high leverage situations…… Hey wait a minute…
you don't tell the players
you just let an idiot manage and play AAA players in the OF and the pen. Oh wait were already doing that.
Maybe you just give Cedrick Blowers some high leverage innings.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 9, 2010 8:24 AM PDT up reply actions
what? where did you get that from my statement?
I’m far from a fair weather fan…but it should be understandable that watching a team that actually wins more than it loses, and gives at least some hope for contention is alot more satisfying than watching a cellar dweller.
As far as I’m concerned the Orioles and Pirates can score #1 picks all they want.
well really you would be giving your pick to the Phillies (Werth) the Rays (Crawford) or maybe the Tigers (Damon)
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Im actually thinking Damon might not be a bad idea next year something like 1/10 and then you could trade him
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions
I hate the idea of Damon hitting in the Coliseum.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 6:49 PM PDT up reply actions
just because it didn't work once doesn't mean it won't work again
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 6:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Getting high picks is the only way the A's can realistically hope to get elite talent
Latin America is a near-total crapshoot, so are the late rounds of the draft, and free agency is hopeless.
There is one and only one way for the A’s to realistically execute a plan to get elite talent, and that is to lose baseball games. Sucks, but it’s reality.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
That is so f'n depressing to read
Spending time with my nephew and the AN Crew on July 10th...PRICELESS!
by ohtobe21likehuston on Aug 8, 2010 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions
That's OK because it isn't true
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 6:51 PM PDT up reply actions
This
What you need is a smart organization that makes good trades and finds talent in unexpected places. The list of top picks is littered with guys who just weren’t very good, and with players who found success with second or third clubs.
Yes and you can also go overslot and the international
market is not a crapshoot just because Paul Thomas says so.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 6:57 PM PDT up reply actions
um the record of bonus babies from LA is attrocious
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 7:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Which is why this we are sorta going to try to rebuild and contend thing doesn't work
especially when the A’s are giving up talent (Holliday trade) in order to try to do that.
Latin America has a really poor record with big bonus babies. Though it would be interesting to see a huge investment in LA scouting and leagues by the A’s to the tune of something like $20m, but its not like teams with more money wouldn’t eventually just out spend the crap out of you down there.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Not necessarily
The A’s got Dan Haren via trade. They got Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez, Joey Devine, Michael Wuertz and Chris Carter via trade.
Had the A’s picked Josh Hamilton instead of Ryan Goleski in the Rule V, and everything else remained equal, the A’s would right now be a playoff contender.
Also, Aroldis Chapman could be on the way
and another SP tradeable for a bat.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
You have to be smart
If you have top draft picks, you have to make the best choices, which means being smart
But if you don’t have top draft picks, you can still get elite players by being smart. Any team could have had David Ortiz when he was released. The Red Sox saw his potential and grabbed him. You don’t get more elite than David Ortiz in his prime.
There was an element of smart to that
There was also a large element of lucky to that, though. Most players with David Ortiz’s Twins profile who get released become averagey kind of players like Cust. Some become Chris Shelton.
I’m not saying there’s any alternative to “trying to get lucky,” necessarily. Certainly I’m not advocating tanking games, which is thoroughly unethical.
I’m a fatalist on this issue. I think the A’s are basically screwed as a franchise in the medium term.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
But the luck (and skill) also holds with draft choices
I’ve been looking over the drafts of the past decade, and while there have been several elite position players selected toward the top of the first round, there have also been quite a few pitchers. From that perspective, as a whole the A’s currently have an elite pitching staff (2nd highest ERA in the American League) without a single player who came out of the draft in the top five. And while a number of elite position players did get drafted high - A-Rod, Teixiera, Longoria, Ryan Braun, Ryan Zimmerman, Justin Upton - quite a few of the very best did not - from Manny Ramirez (1st round, 13th pick) to Ryan Howard, David Wright, Albert Pujols.
If you think about it, and despite all the carping over Bob “Doorknob” Geren, Billy Beane has assembled a team, mostly through prospect trades, that is one elite player away from contention and the A’s have two prospects who could fit that bill.
You're continuing to invert the problem
The problem is not finding good major leaguers who were late round draft picks. The problem is finding late round draft picks who become good major leaguers.
I don’t really believe that the current team is one elite player away from contention. 7.5 games behind the Rangers is really two elite players, maybe even three depending on what position they play.
Meanwhile, the Angels will, by next season, load up another 10 win or so head start in the offseason, more than canceling out whatever fairly small quality difference there is between their current roster and Oakland’s (not to mention that, thanks to sheer numbers if nothing else, they now have much the better farm system).
I’d love to be optimistic about this situation, but I really can’t see any reasonable grounds for it right now.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
Dan Haren was acquired because the A
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 6:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Dan Haren was acquired because the A's traded the Cards a former A's #2 overall pick
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 6:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Specious argument
The best pitcher in the American League in 2010 is Cliff Lee, a 4th round draft choice. First round pitchers are more likely to develop than fourth rounders, but by the time Mulder was traded, there were several elite pitchers in his class who were not first-rounders. Players who are top draft picks have a better chance of being elite players - but after four or five years, there are plenty of elite players who were not first round draft picks.
In fact...
If you’ll recall, both Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder were both traded that off-season. The reason that Mulder got a better haul than Hudson was not because Mulder was a better pitcher, or had a better future, but because he had an additional year before free-agency. Tim Hudson was the staff leader. Tim Hudson was also a 6th round draft pick.
Everyone is aware that there are good players after the 1st round
The problem is that it is definitionally the case that no one knows who they are. If people had even a hint of how dominant Albert Pujols (to take the most obvious example I can think of) would or even COULD be, he would never have lasted past the 30th pick.
The margins you’re operating on after the 1st round are very narrow. If you’re very good the guy might have a 10% chance of working out instead of a 5% chance. That’s just not enough to consistently (i.e. more than a couple years a decade or so) make up for having so much less money than the Angels.
I’m not saying good post-first-round and international scouting is unimportant. It isn’t. It’s a very valuable investment. But there’s effectively a cap on how much a team can feasibly invest in that market.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
You're talking position players
And just looking at the top drafted players for the past decade. I’m discovering that a lot of them are pitchers, and a lot of those pitchers became journeymen, if they made it to the major leagues at all. I’m not convinced that drafting a pitcher at the top - unless that pitcher is a really special talent - is a good idea.
You could be right that you really have to suck to have a chance at the real can’t miss prospects - but you also have to be lucky and suck in a good year, and be lucky and choose a player that actually is can’t miss. The odds are better - but I’m starting to believe that scouting the minors and making great trades is almost as good as getting really lucky at the top.
Saying "oh well we'll just scout well and make good trades"
is rather hubristic, if that’s the strategy. It relies on you having some kind of massive knowledge advantage over the opposition.
Arguably that was true of the A’s in the early 2000s, but I doubt it’s true of anyone right now.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
all you have to do is look at the expected value of higher picks to see that its hardly a specious arguement.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Hardly a specious argument...
My argument wasn’t about “expected value of higher picks.” It was specifically a response to your glib comment about Mark Mulder.
to acquire talent in trades you have to give up talent
to get that talent in the first place you need to produce it. The draft is the best and most reliable way of producing talent. Outcomes of the draft are determined by the spot drafted in that the expected value of higher picks is higher.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 9, 2010 12:14 AM PDT up reply actions
We need to sweep series like this
With Texas in a tough stretch, we need to start having 3 game series where we can pick up 2-3 games…
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Aug 8, 2010 5:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Pretty much we need two things to happen at once
Texas hits the skids and goes 2-7 and the A’s get serious and go 7-2. If it’s ever gonna happen, it’s gonna happen the next week-and-a-half.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Eric Chavez is mulling retirement according to Slusser.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 8, 2010 5:26 PM PDT reply actions
We should sign him to a 10 million dollar deal for one year
if he has a comeback season we can flip him for AAA filler at the deadline
Kind of?
Spending time with my nephew and the AN Crew on July 10th...PRICELESS!
by ohtobe21likehuston on Aug 8, 2010 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Ben there (but haven't Dunn that)
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
fwiw I just checked the Rivercats roster
and Carter’s still there. No transactions have been recorded since August 6.
Of course, nothing would show up before tomorrow anyway.
They probably just traded him for Ruben Sierra
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
"What? Bunt? No? Hit-and-run? What?"
“You’ve been called up!”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Johnny Doskow did just say Carter was not removed due to an injury
That doesn’t rule out fatigue, though.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
He's tired of being in Sacramento
Spending time with my nephew and the AN Crew on July 10th...PRICELESS!
by ohtobe21likehuston on Aug 8, 2010 6:17 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
this is very cleaver.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 8, 2010 6:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Spasms are unpredictable (see Bailey)
Seems reasonable he could be 100% tomorrow or that he could be headed for the DL.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Seems reasonable that it would take them at least 10 days
to put him on the DL in the event that he is day-to-day.
Spending time with my nephew and the AN Crew on July 10th...PRICELESS!
by ohtobe21likehuston on Aug 8, 2010 6:27 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm beginning to think we won't get an official word re: Carter until after the game when the A's mention something
Last of the Ninth - Photography
From SuSlu
UPDATE I’ve had it confirmed from a team official that Carter did not leave Sacramento’s game with an injury (“He’s healthy”), but all other questions went unanswered….which is as close to a confirmation that he’s coming up as I think anyone might get from the A’s side, anyway.
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/athletics/detail?blogid=21&entry_id=69663#ixzz0w4Gn1QdZ
(Sometimes I love how their code just automatically puts the ‘read more’ part in)
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Latest Slusser Tweet
I’m told Carter did not leave Sac’s game with an injury. Seems a clear indication he’s coming up.
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
Unless he can go 0 for 3 with 4 strikeouts, I think he's bound to be.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
The scoreless streak might be over,
but Cahill hasn’t allowed an earned run in 25 innings. That’s still pretty dang cool.
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
I think it's actually 26, dating back one more start.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Ah.
I see you also mentioned that in the recap….maybe next time I’ll read before posting.
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
What about 2011?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, I'm not getting ahead of ourselves.
Carter and Taylor most likely wont pan out right away if at all.
infidel!
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 10:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Left shoulder spasms and kidney stones
I was wondering when we were gonna get around to those … two more guys that’ll probably be out 2 months longer than any other human being ever with those two “injuries”.
I needed a team so I wouldn’t turn into one of the eighty million pink hat-wearing Bud Light-drinking mulleted idiots at Fenway.
And "I've fallen in the bathroom and I can't get up!"
(OK, that’s Jack Wilson.)
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
If Boston wants to lose they should leave Beckett in
He was a good pitcher once but not of late. 10 hits and 4 runs and counting.
he is bad against the Yankees over his entire career though
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
HEY EVERYONE
From Slusser
In tomorrow’s Chronicle, it’s all but assured Carter is coming up: http://tinyurl.com/2em4del #athletics No denials, and he’s not hurt.
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
I've had a fanpost ready for when something is official, but I'm getting the feeling it won't be for certain tonight
Last of the Ninth - Photography
So Buck isn't leaving for Oakland?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 8, 2010 6:59 PM PDT up reply actions
NEW POST UP
The Beast Is Coming!!!! (Maybe)
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
does FIP credit ground balls and fly balls equally?
wouldnt a ground ball be WAAAAAY more effective than a fly ball? i mean u have essentially 5 defenders in a 100 square foot space as opposed to only 3 defenders in the entire outfield.
also, even though his BABIP is “ridiculous” and a sign of “great defense” or “luck”, his line drive % is the 3rd best in baseball. that HAS to account for something right? people are NOT squaring up his pitches.
looking at huddy’s stats this year, they are almost identical to cahill. both pitchers happen to be low strike out guys, high ground ball pitchers. both give up less line drives than any pitcher in baseball and both throw the hard sinker. huddy throws the slider while cahill throws the curve.
yet BOTH guys, with similar styles and similar (dominant) stats have FIP’s in the 4s? there has to be SOMETHING we are all missing. i dont claim to know much (if anything) about these formulas but it looks like, at least to me, FIP gives too much credit to strikeouts or flyballs and not enough credit to simply fooling hitters into slowly tapped, routine ground ball outs…
Right, FIP doesn't take batted ball types into account. That's what tERA is for.
Here are three pretty good groundball pitchers with stats by Fangraphs:
Hudson — 2.24 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 3.58 tERA
4.77 K/9, 3.04 BB/9, 11.9% LD, 65.3% GB, 20.9% OF FB, 1.9% IF FB
Cahill — 2.56 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 3.79 tERA
5.12 K/9, 2.76 BB/9, 13.8% Line Drives, 56.4% Ground Balls, 28.2% OF Flies, 1.5% IF FB
Masterson — 5.40 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 4.02 tERA
7.01 K/9, 4.00 BB/9, 14.7% LD, 63.5% GB, 20.9% OF FB, 1.0% IF FB
FIP only takes into account K/9 and BB/9 (as well as HR/9), whereas tERA takes all the others into account instead of HR/9, because HR/9 are very much affected by park and random fluctuation.
The ERA’s have Hudson the best and Masterson miles behind the other two, but we can see that the peripheral numbers for all three are similar, with Masterson having more strikeouts and more walks, but similar batted ball types. We can also see that the low LD% and OF FB% make the tERA for all three better than their FIP.
Let’s look at park and defense as possible sources of the difference:
Fielding Runs Above Average by UZR on Fangraphs:
Athletics: Team +17.8 runs, Infielders +22.9 runs
Braves: Team -10.3 runs, Infielders -2.7 runs
Indians: Team -37.3 runs, Infielders -25.7 runs
Park Factors by statcorner (with 100 being average, and numbers below being tougher for hitters):
Oakland: wOBA 95 for LH batters/92 for RH batters
Atlanta: wOBA 97/99
Cleveland: wOBA 98/99
We can see here that Cahill is helped the most by his defense, and particularly the infield defense which his GB tendencies exploit. Hudson’s defense is below average overall, but the IF defense has been nearly average — at least while Escobar was there. Masterson’s defense has been terrible overall, and especially the infield — mainly SS.
We can also see that Hudson and Masterson throw in slight pitchers’ parks but Cahill pitches in a very favorable park.
Therefore we should not be surprised that the true ability of these guys is a lot closer than ERA would indicate. Hudson has been the best, Cahill also very good and Masterson also pretty good, but the Braves adequate IF defense and A’s excellent overall defense make Hudson and Cahill look miles ahead of Masterson, which they really aren’t.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 9, 2010 7:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Oops Masterson should have 20.9% OF FB and 1.0% IF FB
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 9, 2010 7:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Oops I had it right in the first place
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 9, 2010 7:56 AM PDT up reply actions
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