Our little muppet grover gets props from Mychael Urban
by mrod on Aug 31, 2010 6:27 PM PDT
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PrintHey friends!
I just wanted to let everyone know that our very own grover got a nice little plug from Mychael Urban about his post about how the A's can sign "Carl Crawford or your FA of choice" in today's Bay Ball edition. I'll sum it up here but you can click on the link to read the whole entry. If for some reason the link does not work just scroll over to the CSN page and click on Tuesday Bay Ball Edition.
Congrats to you grover and keep up the good work mate! Cheers! M-Rod
http://www.csnbayarea.com/08/31/10/Urban-Tuesday-in-Bay-Ball-Aug-31-Edition/landing_urban_v3.html?blockID=301303&feedID=2797
… Athletics Nation, the best A’s fan blog on the web, last week featured a post detailing how and why the club should acquire Carl Crawford and Adam Dunn over the winter. It won’t happen, of course, and but can you imagine? Coco Crisp, Daric Barton, Crawford, Dunn, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Kurt Suzuki, Ryan Sweeney, Cliff Pennington and Mark Ellis? That dog’ll hunt -- and give Michael Taylor and Chris Carter a couple of months to dominate Triple-A before they come up and join the fun.
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The implication in Urban's excerpt is that Dunn is a big upgrade over Cust
I think a lot of people feel that way, but I don’t agree. Cust and Dunn have accumulated their stat lines in different leagues and parks. In neutral situations I think they are equals or darn near it. Certainly close enough that I wouldn’t make 4-5x the financial commitment it would require to swap out Cust for Dunn.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Aug 31, 2010 7:04 PM PDT reply actions
I dunno if I agree
Dunn has performed every single season of his career in every park he’s played in. His home/road splits, being over enough time to where we can gather something from them, are not too far off.
Dunn is certainly an upgrade over Cust, how much is the question.
Cust will probably get somewhere between $4-6M in arbitration if we decide to tender him a contract. Are you assuming Dunn would cost 4-5x more a year or total financial commitment?
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Aug 31, 2010 7:51 PM PDT up reply actions
They are probably closer than you think
wRC+ the last four years
Cust – 144, 132, 111, 139
Dunn – 141, 132, 143, 142
Dunn was obviously better in 2009 but it surprised me to see how similar they were every other year. Dunn is the better hitter but is he that much better that giving him a 4 yr $50m contract makes sense?
Here's something I've always wondered
wOBA and wRC+ are all context-neutral, right? In other words, we’re talking about runs that should have scored. Well, if you have a guy who walks a lot (Cust) and whose high OBP is contributing to his high wOBA on a team that has generally poor SLG and ISO, wouldn’t this score you less runs actually than someone like Dunn, whose SLG is 100 points higher than Cust’s?
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
by cuppingmaster on Sep 1, 2010 7:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Not sure if I am following you correctly
but wRC+ is league and park adjusted wOBA, similar to what OPS+ is to OPS. wOBA does value 1 point of OBP over 1 point of SLG but it doesn’t take into account team context. It basically measures a single players offensive contribution towards creating runs.
You are following me correctly indeed
wOBA doesn’t into account team context. Well, what if the team around you when you have an OBP-heavy wOBA doesn’t score any runs? Is this player then truly as valuable in context as someone who has an SLG-heavy wOBA?
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
by cuppingmaster on Sep 1, 2010 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Teams have to have truly extreme OBP and SLG numbers
before the equation diverges from the essentially linear weighting that wOBA uses. The A’s are not anywhere near so extreme. The effect on the respective values of Dunn and Cust is minute.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
I know the math
Cust isn’t truly an appreciably better player than Dunn. I just wonder in game situations — would the A’s have any more wins today with Dunn in there instead of Cust?
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
by cuppingmaster on Sep 1, 2010 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions
No
The A’s are, as I said, not in a part of the OBP/SLG ratio curve where the relationship is nonlinear, either in its relationship to run expectancy or in its relationship to win expectancy.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Dunn's career slash line on the road is
.249./375/.511 in 2,471 ABs. I think that’s enough to say he’s not just a product of his home environments.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Interestingly,
I checked out Cust’s career road split at baseball-reference.com: .230/.356/.414, for a tOPS+ of 86. He’s been far better at home for his career. Not making a point here, it’s just interesting.
"Never overlook an orchid while searching for a rose" - Buck Showalter
by Philip Christy on Aug 31, 2010 9:26 PM PDT up reply actions
That is interesting PC
Which would make Cust something of a unique hitter having the better stats at the Coliseum as opposed to the road.
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
Not really
The A’s as a team hit better at home, as (I believe) does every other team.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Really?
I just assumed the A’s were the opposite because of the Coliseum’s effect on hitters.
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
They're close
But 7 OPS points ahead at home (with more OBP and less SLG)
This, by the way, is a classic example of why “Player X hits poorly on the road” is poor evidence than he is solely a product of his home stadium.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Not the Padres
The Petco effect is the one park effect that is stronger than home-field advantage.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Why the hell did they design such a ridiculously difficult offensive park?
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Sep 1, 2010 7:38 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't think they DESIGNED it that way...
Most of the research on climatological effects on baseball had not yet been done at the time the park was built. And I don’t know if there were any alternative sites available anyway.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
But aren't the gaps huge?
They could have, you know, not done that…
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Sep 1, 2010 9:40 PM PDT up reply actions
If Dunn is better, it's marginally.
I forget the exact numbers, but given the same amount of playing time/adjusting for league and park, Dunn has been worth about .25 wins more than Cust per year since 2007. If they cost the same, I’m taking Dunn. But they don’t cost anywhere near the same amount. Paying $10+ million more for a quarter of a win (say it’s even a full win) is silly.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Sep 3, 2010 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Here's my question concerning Cust v. Dunn...
Shouldn’t we be more concerned about their performances going forward? I’m worried that Cust’s 2010 rebound is based on luck. His BABIP is about 60 points above his career average. If that figure drops back down in 2011 than Cust goes from being a contributor to a liability. (Ironically, even a bad Cust might be the A’s best hitter… sigh.)
The monster at the end of this blog.
Let me preface this by saying this could be totally wrong. I'm not the mathy type.
But Cust has seemingly lost HR power while gaining 2B power. Trading HR’s for 2B’s would raise your BABIP, as 2B’s are in play and HR’s are out of play, obviously. Is it possible that his BABIP rise is legitimate and not luck, due to his drop in HR’s and his increase in doubles?
A's Fan in Sweden
"Sosa had me caught up in the magic, and I feel like an idiot. I don’t say that often, but I feel like an idiot because of Sammy Sosa." -Jay Mariotti
Right, but just doing some easy math,
if you drop 10 HR’s and turn them into doubles from his 09 line, his BABIP jumps from .320ish to .350ish. That’s probably still high, but if you regress him to there or a little further for this year, he’s still solid.
A's Fan in Sweden
Crawford, meanwhile, is a huge upgrade over the internal alternative.
Btw congrats grover, well-earned recognition for your exhaustive work.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Aug 31, 2010 7:06 PM PDT reply actions
Congrats indeed!
grover consistently posts high quality materials. To me he is always a “must read” here.
"You know, a long time ago being crazy meant something. Nowadays everybody's crazy."
-Charles Manson
Mychael Urban better watch out for his job!
haha
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
Nah!
He was just taking a little heads up from me about grover’s post and helping out the cause. He is very well informed and does his homework bur I thought it would be cool if he were to get a nudge about a great post from AN. Thanks for chiming in everybody!
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
Absolutely buddy!
It took him a little bit to write about it but he did follow thru on his promise. Again, congrats on the recognition grover.
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
"the best A’s fan blog on the web"
Clearly that was influenced by contributors such as Donkey12, Turf Toe Joe and myself.
"-i never said half the things i said." --Yogi Berra
was there a fanpost last week about adam dunn? I dont see it.
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Aug 31, 2010 8:21 PM PDT reply actions
Yeah
I was confused by that part too. grover’s post didn’t even say we “should” just that we could too.
Choosy Feebas choose Leopold Bloom nipples
Daring. Sensual. Invigorating. Squirrel.
BLOOM. For men.
If the eggs actually hatch I made more than a mistake, I made some scientifically impossible crime.
It's not confusing at all.
When you cite someone else’s story, you get to claim it says whatever you want it to say. This is standard procedure.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
If you've ever seen CX debate card tag lines vs the cards themselves, you would agree with this statement even more.
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Sep 1, 2010 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions
If I remember correctly, CDE prefab briefs were the worst about this.
Although Communican wasn’t always stellar either.
"I wasn't able to extend so I had a serious lack of extension."--Dallas Braden
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Sep 3, 2010 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Not if your a reporter
Besides messing with your credibility about reporting facts, you’re also likely to hit on legal issues as well.
Choosy Feebas choose Leopold Bloom nipples
Daring. Sensual. Invigorating. Squirrel.
BLOOM. For men.
If the eggs actually hatch I made more than a mistake, I made some scientifically impossible crime.
You have a more generous view of journalistic standards
than I do. I don’t know what the actual legal recourses are, but just judging from how much bullshit I’ve read even in serious newspapers, not to mention someone’s sloppy sports chat blog, I can’t imagine they’re very stringent. People misrepresent stuff every day.
What’s the legal issue in this case? Grover is going to sue Urb and say, “No, you misrepresented me. I never said the A’s should acquire Crawford and Dunn.”? What judge is going to care?
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
Can I make any money off that lawsuit?
I work for the Federal government… I need to be creative in finding ways to make more money.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Your reputation has been harmed
You actually think we should get both of those players. I just don’t believe in you anymore.
Choosy Feebas choose Leopold Bloom nipples
Daring. Sensual. Invigorating. Squirrel.
BLOOM. For men.
If the eggs actually hatch I made more than a mistake, I made some scientifically impossible crime.
It's not just a matter of "what judge is going to care" but I'm not sure there's actually a law that's broken
This is especially true if the misrepresentation was accidental.
The closest thing that seems to be in play here are libel/slander laws, but very few people actually understand them (not saying you’re among them, iglew). Funny related story: A woman recently threatened my mother with a slander lawsuit (even clearly lying and saying she already talked to a lawyer) over a private conversation between the two of them. Absolutely hilarious (also, lesson here: Don’t threaten this kind of legal action when you have no idea what the hell the laws are).
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Sep 3, 2010 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions
It's technically libel
because it’s a published, provably false statement about grover.
That said, there are no damages at all.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
[Insert repetitive "please stop mentioning Dunn, he makes no sense" post here]
Silly urban.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I'm glad anytime someone reads my stuff and gets something out of it...
but I don’t recall saying Crawford AND Dunn.
The monster at the end of this blog.
urban can't be bothered to get things right, he was probably rushing between his five jobs
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones."
-BB 07/27/05
try not to hold it against grover that urb is praising his work
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones."
-BB 07/27/05
Dunn was just a by product of the post put up by grover
His name came up during the thread, just like Werth’s name did, but Crawford was the centerpiece of the post.
“try not to hold it against grover that urb is praising his work”
And what exactly is your problem xb?
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
Urban is pretty terrible at his job.
His baseball insight is suspect at best and is horribly skewed by the fact that he wants to be buddy buddy with the players he covers (see Buck, Travis and Zito, Barry).
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Sep 1, 2010 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions
True, but
I kind of like him on the radio. He’s got a nice calm presence about him.
by Glorious Mundy on Sep 1, 2010 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions
dfa
While you are entitled to your opinion…..you have no idea what it takes to cover a baseball team(s) and you have no idea who Mychael Urban is on a personal level. He is quite professional and if you ever had a chance to sit down and talk with the man, especially baseball, you would know he is very sincere and has gained the trust of players because he has spent years building relationships with them, not because he’s trying to kiss anybody’s ass.
I respect your knowledge of baseball stats and your passion for discussing the ins and outs of evaluating a player’s worth but you’re way off the mark here, man. Besides, I really don’t know why anyone would have anything negative to say about grover and AN getting some nice media recognition. Some of you are acting like its a bad thing…….
Do not get……….. :(
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
Urban may be a good guy or pleasant to talk to, but that doesn't keep him from being terrible at his job
I broke down just one of his blog entries last year. In it he said that Everidge was a better hitter than Cust, said he didn’t understand UZR or other stats, and claimed that scouts liked Bucks new swing even though they had never seen it mostly because he and Buck are friends. He is an atrocious baseball writer and represents pretty much everything that I hate about the profession. Furthermore, the trust of the players he has earned, according to you, has done absolutely nothing to improve his writing or my knowledge of the game as a reader. Ex jock, head in the sand, stargazers are absolutely the worst, which is why places like AN exist. Slusser is 47 billion times better.
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Sep 1, 2010 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm not gonna get into a flame war with you dfa
This post was supposed to be about bringing a positive light to grover gaining some nice attention. You are entitled to your opinion and that’s fine. I’m just gonna leave it at that
Bye…..
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
Its not a flame war.
You like Urban on a personal level.
I think hes a horrible baseball analyst.
The two are not mutually exclusive. I like plenty of people are terrible baseball analysts.
Also im not sure how you can say that grover got nice attention when Urban completely botched and misrepresented the argument that grover made.
What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT
by designatedforassignment on Sep 3, 2010 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm sorry
I understand you defending him, and perhaps lately he’s gotten better at his job, (I’ve decided to read less and less of him recently) but even a couple years back when I was still a pretty casual fan I saw signs that he was full of it.
Again, he may be improving, but I vividly remember instances where he would dispute something, then say he agreed with it all along. Sure, there are many sports writers who do this, but when your job is to give your opinion, you better be damn sure to stick to your guns…
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Sep 1, 2010 7:52 PM PDT up reply actions
There's a "guess Adam Dunn's salary" poll on fangraphs.
(here) and some of the numbers are pretty ridiculous, like 4yrs/$50 million. If the A’s give Dunn that much money I will bang my head against the wall until I’m too dumb to understand stuff like counting and math. If Dunn, at 1B, has actually found a position he can play capably (which I doubt – I’m calling his UZR a fluke) he’s maybe a win upgrade on Barton. If his fielding reverts to terrible he’s a downgrade from Barton. Likewise, at DH, which he refuses to play, Dunn is worth maybe a win over Cust. Either way, this is a marginal win for the A’s. It doesn’t make a difference to their play off hopes. And as for Dunn, he’s averaged 2 wins per season over the last three years. He deserves $8 million per year, and not from the A’s.
Of course Fangraphs ran a similar poll on Crawford’s contract, and those numbers seemed pretty legit to me – five or six years at $16-17 million.
Ya I read that same article on Fangraphs
and posted it on grover’s OP. Very interesting stuff, indeed.
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
Wow, congrats, grover! MUCH deserved!
"Oh who am I kidding? The A's and Giants could stage a pillow fight, and I'd still care who wins." -67Marquez
Dunn or Crawford
Crawford is the better player of the 2 but how much will the A’s need to over pay for him to join the A’s. Anything over $10 million is over paying on him unless it is no more than a 4 year deal. If he goes to $15 a year like most are saying he will it is a bust in the long run. Dunn on the other hand will not get a longer deal than 3 to 4 years and will most likely be under $15 a year. I just don’t see Crawford happening for the A’s but you never know with Beane.
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