Batter's Eye: Dallas Braden's Changeup
by danmerqury on Aug 31, 2010 7:01 AM PDT
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I know I talk about PitchFX in a pretty technical way fairly often, but I'd like to take a step back and use it to marvel at some of the A's best pitchers and explain why some of their pitches are so difficult to hit. And so, the first entry in what will hopefully be a new series: Dallas Braden's changeup.
Dallas Braden famously rode his magnificent changeup to perfection earlier this year, but I'm going to focus on his last start, a marvelous four-hit complete game shutout of the Rangers on August 28. He mostly pitched to contact and let Oakland's strong defense do much of the heavy lifting, but his one jaw-dropping strikeout came in the 6th inning against Michael Young. Braden got Young to swing and miss on an absolutely filthy 69 mph changeup that painted the lower outside corner. (Gameday link here, video link here at the 33 second mark.)
It's considered very good if a pitcher can achieve a 10 mph difference between his fastball and his changeup. Braden's changeup is a whopping 15 mph slower than his fastball. What does that do to a batter? The following is a side view of two pitches: the 69 mph changeup that Dallas Braden threw to strike out Michael Young, and a fastball he threw in Young's previous at bat in the fourth inning. The blue line and the red line correspond to the flight paths of the fastball and changeup, respectively. Also, the baseballs show where each pitch would be at the time the fastball crosses the plate. Click for a bigger version.
The flight paths of Braden's fastball and changeup are essentially identical until the pitch is around 15 feet from the plate. At that point, the fastball is a little more than a tenth of a second from the plate, which is far too little time for a batter to perform any necessary corrections to his swing. To successfully hit a changeup from Dallas Braden, a batter would have to guess on the pitch selection and hope for the best.
And if a batter incorrectly guesses fastball and swings accordingly, he'll miss Braden's changeup by an entire foot in height...and ten feet in distance. Ten feet! Any pitch that can make a Major League-quality batter miss a baseball by ten feet is a very dangerous weapon indeed. Throw in Braden's uncanny ability to add and subtract velocity and movement from his pitches along with his pinpoint control (1.67 BB/9, good for fourth in the majors) and you've got a pitcher who should overachieve in his fourth starter rotation spot for years to come.
After last night's day off embarrassing performance, the A's try to come up swinging as Vin Mazzaro takes on Phil Hughes at 4:05 PT.
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Very nice. I like this.
I have a question, though. You mention the 10 mph difference and how little time a batter has to react (0.1 sec) when the two pitches start to diverge. Since the speed of the two pitches is far different from the outset, couldn’t the change-up take longer to get there, and thus possibly be some sort of tip off by sheer slowness? Or, is it still happening too fast for the batter to react?
Since change-ups do often work, obviously, I would presume the latter.
Bob Geren... Jackie Moore without the personality.
The latter.
It’s not to that extent where he can sit back & tell by velocity, but it’s enough to get a batter flailing out in front.
Oakland Athletics * St. Bonaventure Bonnies * Green Bay Packers * Buffalo Sabres * New York Knicks
by RyanFromBonas on Aug 31, 2010 7:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Great Post
I really enjoy seeing Braden pitch at the Coliseum. Opposing teams can really flail at the ball. His change-up can be more toxic to hitters than Harden in his prime on a good day.
Gameday link...
took me to the wrong at-bat. Perhaps it’s because the at-bat in question was in the 6th? I dunno.
Anyway, great article! I checked out the at-bat on Gameday, and saw that it was an 8-pitch affair, ending with 6 consecutive change-ups. Now maybe Young didn’t guess that Braden would go change 6 times in a row, but shouldn’t there be some kind of adjustment period after that many straight?
As far as I know, you can't link to a certain at bat in Gameday,
so that link just takes you to the final at bat of the game. But oops, you’re right about the 6th inning, not the 7th. Fixed.
Phenomenal
And I mean both Dallas’s change and the insight in this article.
Let’s hope he can do the same to the Billion Dollar Bombers on Thursday
Cool graphic and nice write up
How many more feet does the batter miss by when Braden follows an 89 mph fastball with a 67 mph changeup? Seems like he has the ability to gear up, then down when trying to get a third strike.
According to Fangraphs
Dallas Braden’s Average
Fastball: 86.8 MPH
Changeup: 72.2 MPH
Difference: 14.6 MPH
Next slowest Changeup (qualifying pitchers): Barry Zito at 75 MPH (with a fastball at 85.6 MPH, total difference of 10.6 MPH)
Looking through other pitchers fastball vs. changeup velocities, no one holds a candle to the difference between Braden’s pitches. A few pitchers get a bit above +10 (Leblanc, Wolf, Weaver, Westbrook, Talbot and a couple others), but no one is much above an 11 MPH difference other than Clay Buchholz, whose average fastball at 94 compares to a change at 81.7 makes for a mph difference of 12.3.
So, according to Fangraphs, the next closest difference in MPH between a SPs change and fastball is Buchholz, and his pitches are still 2.3 MPH closer to one another.
That. Is. Astounding. Even in comparable pitchers from a speed and repertoire standpoint, you won’t find anyone really within 4 MPH of Braden’s mark. So, hitters literally have no current comparable to match up to Braden.
Conclusion: There is currently no Starting Pitcher in baseball like that of Dallas Braden.
(Perfect Game)
BOTTOM LINE
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
Isn't part of the craft throwing it like the fastball?
If the batter knows the pitch type by how you throw, won’t it lessen the impact.
by MobiusKlein on Aug 31, 2010 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, yeah
And Dallas has done a pretty damn good job at that.
Just reference dan’s chart. His changeup is literally the same pitch until about 10-15 feet from the plate.
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Aug 31, 2010 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions
I was thinking of form during the pitch
Does Braden look like he’s throwing softly when throwing the CU.
The chart also does not have the time dimension – if it had tick-marks every 10th of a second .. .
Ideally the motion,
arm angle, and release point are nearly identical. Tight rotation is also essential. One of the best I’ve seen was Mario Soto with the Reds back in the 80s. As I recall, he only threw a fastball and a change. You couldn’t tell the difference between the two until it was too late.
"Never mistake motion for action." - Ernest Hemingway
Wow.
That’s insane. His fastball-changeup differential is head and shoulders above anyone else in the Majors. By far.
Oh, and great work as always dan!
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
He's no MVP-Baseball-2005 Shingo Takatsu
Actually, even the real Shingo Takatsu managed a differential of about 18 MPH (though nothing like the 30 MPH or so that the video game postulated).
I’ve heard very conflicting things about whether you want a higher differential or not. Some people think it should be just sufficient that the batter will miss without being substantial enough to tip him off that the pitch is a changeup before he’s committed to the swing. Others believe what I read to be the thesis of this piece, which is that a large differential is better.
Personally, I’m not sure. The pitcher’s deceptiveness is certainly key regardless of what the speeds of his pitches are.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
This
The pitcher’s deceptiveness is certainly key regardless of what the speeds of his pitches are.
Differential makes no difference if the hitter knows what they are going to be thrown.
Someone like Braden does a tremendous job of not tipping his pitches in any way, while also getting pretty decent movement out of both his fastball and his change. Then there’s Felix Hernandez, who doesn’t even get a 5 MPH differential between his change and fastball. I’ve heard he’s very good too.
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Aug 31, 2010 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Nice post, Dan!
This just might be enough to inspire me to settle my debt, broken hard disk or not.
"Good thing you can't hit, otherwise everybody would hate you"
– H.J.S., my ex coach (while drunkenly talking to me during a team visit to a strip joint)
You got one
I owe you three more
"Good thing you can't hit, otherwise everybody would hate you"
– H.J.S., my ex coach (while drunkenly talking to me during a team visit to a strip joint)
I'll follow suit here Dan
Kudos for the great info. I think Braden is probably my favorite pitcher to watch on the A’s staff because of his “thinking man’s game” mentality. He really is a mental pitcher and because he has great survival instincts on the mound, it’s very entertaining to watch him. That pinpoint control is vital for him and he really utilizes every ounce of talent in his bones. Just a balls out guy and someone you really love to root for as a fan. Go A’s!
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
Just checked
Dallas Braden’s change up is the sixth most devastating^ pitch on the A’s staff** and the most devastating change up.
Can you guess the top 5?
^devastating as having the highest percentage of swings at it being swing and misses.
**at least 50 swings against that pitch required
"Good thing you can't hit, otherwise everybody would hate you"
– H.J.S., my ex coach (while drunkenly talking to me during a team visit to a strip joint)
Most swings and misses?
Gio’s curve, Trevor’s…curve?, Anderson’s slider, Bailey’s cutter, and Breslow’s fastball.
2 correct ones
"Good thing you can't hit, otherwise everybody would hate you"
– H.J.S., my ex coach (while drunkenly talking to me during a team visit to a strip joint)
Guess
Gio’s curve
Anderson’s slider
Bailey’s FB
Breslow’s FB
Wuertz’s slider
?
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Aug 31, 2010 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions
2 correct ones
"Good thing you can't hit, otherwise everybody would hate you"
– H.J.S., my ex coach (while drunkenly talking to me during a team visit to a strip joint)
hmmmm
Breslow’s fastball, Cahill’s sinker, Wuertz’s slider, Gio’s fastball, Bailey’s cutter?
!#%&$#@&%&% antioxidants! - pam
by cuppingmaster on Aug 31, 2010 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Ah, of course. Wuertz's slider has got to be number one.
But it seems like Cahill gets more swings and weak contact, or called strikes with his sinker.
Cahill rarely gets swinging strikes. Period.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Aug 31, 2010 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions
one, but it's number 1
"Good thing you can't hit, otherwise everybody would hate you"
– H.J.S., my ex coach (while drunkenly talking to me during a team visit to a strip joint)
Does Duke's curveball still count in this conversation?
I’d have to also guess Goi’s curve and fastball, Wuertz’s slider, Anderson’s slider, Breslow’s fastball….and then Braden’s changeup.
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
Unfortunately he didn't pitch enough to get 50 swings against any single type of pitch.
Sad panda.
"Good thing you can't hit, otherwise everybody would hate you"
– H.J.S., my ex coach (while drunkenly talking to me during a team visit to a strip joint)
I love the graphic
It really demonstrates the helplessness a hitter must feel when he guesses wrong. There’s no “waiting on a fastball” because you just can’t freaking tell! And with Braden’s control, taking just gets you a strike. Not that it happens too often, but it leads me to wonder about what goes wrong when Braden has an off day? Are hitters just guessing well? Is he tipping his pitches? Or maybe the changeup isn’t catching the plate, so he has to go more with fastballs?
Shades of Maddux
Intriguing read. There’s been plenty of chatter about Dallas’ change for at least a year now, tempered by the hope he can stay healthy and make hitters look like fools for years to come (in an Athletics uniform).
FWIW, Braden’s BB/9 has dropped over a full walk per 9 when compared to his 2009 rate. His splits are amazingly consistent, not only pertaining to venue but also pertaining to LHB vs. RHB, (lefties have managed a .676 OPS vs. Braden while righties have posted a mere .656).
What an unmitigated badass.
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