Going Free Agent Shopping?
by danmerqury on Aug 3, 2010 7:01 AM PDT
Email
PrintCorrect or not, the A's have a national reputation for basically only three things: creating ungodly talented young ballplayers, selling them off when they get expensive, and topping off the team with old, cheap, 30-something over-the-hill veterans. On the topic of that last one—Jason Giambi, Mike Sweeney, Frank Thomas (twice), Mike Piazza, and even David Justice can claim the role of the bargain-bin Oakland veteran. For years, the A's haven't had the money to snag a world-class talent in his prime years, so we've had to settle for an older model that's running on fumes. But what if I told you that we may not be forced to settle in the near future?
A quick review of contract rules before I dive in—there are many, many quirks and oddities in the system, but basically and very generally, a player, from the time he is brought up to the majors, has six full years under team control. After his six years, he is a free agent, and he is free to sign a contract wherever he would like. Before then, however, he has to play for the team that owns the rights to him. For the first three of those six years, he will likely make something close to the major league minimum, which is $400,000. The last three of those six team-controlled years are called arbitration years, where if the player and the team cannot agree to a contract, a neutral panel of professional arbitrators will make a decision. Typically, players receive hefty raises during these arbitration years. And lastly, if the team feels it necessary to do so, the team can bypass the entire yearly process by signing a player to a multi-year contract, which is what the A's recently did with Brett Anderson and Kurt Suzuki. Many of these multi-year contracts have "club option" years built in, which state that the team may decide whether or not to activate an extra year as specified in the contract. If this extra year is not activated, the player is paid a smaller amount of money as a buyout, and the contract is over.
Now let me reference the always-reliable Cot's Baseball Contracts. According to Cot's, we only have six players that are under contract and are guaranteed money next year. Just six! These are, in order of major league service time, Eric Chavez (who is owed $3MM as a 2011 buyout, or $12.5MM if the team decides that a glass spine makes a good office showpiece), Mark Ellis (a $500K buyout or a $6MM 2011 option), Coco Crisp (a $500K buyout or a $5.75MM 2011 option), Michael Wuertz ($2.8MM), Brett Anderson ($1.25MM), and Kurt Suzuki ($3.438MM). That's it. Additionally, we've got ten players eligible for arbitration (Kouzmanoff, Jackson, Cust, Davis, Gross, Devine, Breslow, Braden, Sweeney, and Buck). If we assume a $2MM average for all of our arbitration eligibles, that's another $20MM. Throw in the remaining players at the minimum salary, and we're looking at a total payroll of somewhere around $40MM to $45MM. The A's have shown a willingness in the recent past to go into the $60MM-$70MM range, so we've got some money to play with, as we build the offense to complement our strong pitching for a playoff run.
Here's a list of the upcoming free agent class. It has some interesting names on it, like Adam Dunn, Carl Crawford, and Jayson Werth. Who should we pursue, if any?
All figures come from Cot's Baseball Contracts. A Cot's-created Google Spreadsheet can be found here, and it contains all of the latest updated information for future payroll obligations.
Current Series
Athletics lead the series 1-0
| Mon 08/02 | WP: Trevor Cahill (11 - 4) LP: Brian Bannister (7 - 11) |
6 - 0 win |
|
Kansas City Royals Tuesday, Aug 3, 2010, 7:05 PM PDT Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 75. |
||
| Wed 08/04 | 12:35 PM PDT | |
1191 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Wow. Incredible timing.
I just created this FanPost:
http://www.athleticsnation.com/2010/8/3/1602671/what-is-daric-barton-really-worth
I would like to see the team pursue Adam Dunn, resign Cust…and hope that GMs around the league value Barton as much as many people here at AN do.
by HCF from Oakball on Aug 3, 2010 7:20 AM PDT reply actions
Dunn, Cust and Carter all play the same position
"Not in your wildest alcoholic nightmare would you ever imagine such events unfolding!" Bill King
by Buck Turgidson on Aug 3, 2010 7:32 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Perhaps
Dunn – 1B
Carter – LF
Cust – DH
by HCF from Oakball on Aug 3, 2010 7:42 AM PDT up reply actions
OH. I guess I should add...
As a career National Leaguer, Dunn has played 0 games at designated hitter.
by HCF from Oakball on Aug 3, 2010 7:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Baseball Reference says he's played 18 games at DH
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 7:49 AM PDT up reply actions
My bad.
I didn’t take interleague games into account.
by HCF from Oakball on Aug 3, 2010 7:50 AM PDT up reply actions
He also has openly said he doesn't want to DH long term
he was supposedly OK with DHing if he were traded at the deadline to an AL contender, but I have a feeling unless someone massively throws him the extra money, he’s going to be playing 1B or LF.
Needs moar dingerz.
There's this, too
And DH is difficult enough for guys to adjust to. Having an unwilling guy doing it doesn’t seem like a great idea.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 8:25 AM PDT up reply actions
The A's currently have bad position players in both corner OF spots
why do you want to remove one of the A’s good position players.
Needs moar dingerz.
2011
I’d like to see a Carter/Davis/Taylor outfield.
Dunn – 1B
Sogard – 2B
Kooz – 3B
Penny – SS
Cust – DH
by HCF from Oakball on Aug 3, 2010 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions
How is that any better than what we have now?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 8:57 AM PDT up reply actions
its more expensive thats for sure.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Sogard is a bootleg Nick Punto
Id rather trade for Uggla.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
Only problem with that idea PL78
is that Florida would more than likely ask for something in return that Beane isn’t going to want to give up. Can you say starting pitching and or Carter/Taylor? Also, since he’s a butcher with the glove where are the A’s going to put him unless he were to DH and you move Cust to the outfield again?
And the A’s still have to very solid 2nd basemen in Ellis, club option next year, and Rosales who is still under club control.
Don’t get me wrong, I love Uggla’s bat and he is kind of Jeff Kent Redux minus the motorcycle carwash……I’m just not sure how that would work out. If Billy were somehow able to work a killer deal then I’m all for it, though. I am always hopeful but also realistic.
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
ellis is not worth the club option
and i don’t think uggla would cost that much. he’ll make close to $10M in arb next year and the marlins arent going to want to pay that.
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions
I disagree with you
but that’s cool.
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
Ellis's option is WAY over market value
Orlando Hudson is twice the player Ellis is, yet makes less money, that aint right.
Uggla might be not as good as Ellis with the glove, but he’s been consistently a 3-5 WAR player every year of his career. Ellis has only sniffed that in 05 and 07 and has been a 1-2 one the rest of the time…those good years are in the distant past now.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
Another fair point
I just have a feeling Beane is going to either exercise Ellis’ option or tear up that contract and ask him to sign for less money but add another year so he can retire an A and make slightly more money.
If the A’s don’t pick up his option someone else will, I assure you. Also, I don’t value players based purely on their WAR. Mark Ellis represents other positive things on this team and I like having that present on the field and in the clubhouse.
And I still would love it of Beane somehow went out and got Uggla’s bat!
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
Ellis is fine if he's a decent 1.5 WAR guy who brings other things
The danger is if he’s really finished as a hitter. A replacement-level player is, well, somebody you want to replace. You can always find another good clubhouse guy who isn’t terrible (if Ellis is, in fact, going to be terrible).
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions
If Ellis's bat has gone, he then has "Adam Kennedy syndrome"
He’s not flexible enough to be a backup unless your starters are themselves very flexible.
Of course people keep paying Adam Kennedy to play baseball, for some reason, but ideally one hopes that it would be someone other than one’s own team.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
by PaulThomas on Aug 3, 2010 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
::Runs up to PaulThomas and gives him a big hug::
Hi!
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions
How ya been there stranger?
Good to see u back in the saddle again!
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
Seems to me the A's and Marlins should be good trade partners
The Marlins have tons of power, not enough defense and a lack of SP depth; the A’s are the opposite. Both teams are .500 because the A’s win the games the Marlins lose and the Marlins win the games the A’s lose.
Florida would be better with Kouz at 3B where Cantu spent for the first 4 months defacing the position. Mazzaro would help them (I have a feeling Mazzaro is one of those guys who will stall in the AL but thrive in the NL).
Seems like there are pieces there for a fair trade if the two teams wanted. What I’m not sure is where Uggla would play in Oakland.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I see your point Nico
I’m wary of trading any of our starting five at this point, however. There is a lack of depth other than Mortenson and Bonser at the moment. Until I know there is another solid healthy starter, and Anderson and Braden have already broken down a couple times this year, to plug into the rotation I’m hanging on to my starting five.
Retort?
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
See a ways below: My retort is to sign a FA pitcher, not a FA hitter.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
FA market is much deeper for pitchers than hitters
also Tyson Ross is destroying AAA.
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=475115
the a’s could trade mazzaro and still have:
anderson
cahill
gonzalez
braden
ross
mortensen
outman
FA
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions
Sure, but Mazzaro isn't likely to bring much back
Cahill is probably the most attractive trade chip.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions
F%$%^in forget about it then!
No way Jose’!
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
Aside from last week's start the first one
Mazz has been pretty awesome this year. He’s 22, and throws 92-94. You bet your ass he’ll get something decent in return.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2010 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions
i was expanding Nico's
suggestion that Mazzaro could net Uggla. I could actually see it given the ~$10M arb award Uggla could get.
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Ya I know what you were getting at
Until I see someone that can slot into Vinny’s starter position, I’m a little leary of trading him already.
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
yeah it might be a little steep
im just not all that sold on mazzaro being more than a back of the rotation starter.
he’s a two pitch pitcher who doesn’t throw that hard, doesn’t get enough ground balls, doesn’t miss enough bats and walks too many batters.
he could certiainly still develop the change or curve to the point that he reaches his mid rotation potential, but i’ll take anderson, cahill, gonzalez and braden all over mazz. ross and outman are pretty similar talents (more upside imo) and theres only 5 spots in the rotation.
I'm not 100% sure, but I think if Billy called Hill/Beinfest
and offered Mazzaro for Uggla, they’d say yes immediately.
Pam liked my old sig better.
Then I think he should do it.
But not until a replacement is signed through free agency. A rotation anchored by Anderson, Cahill, Braden, Gio, and a solid FA pickup, with Outman, Ross, and Mortensen for depth, is in good shape.
And Uggla would make the A’s immediately better.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
more likely
Ellis stays at 2nd and Uggla backs up 2ndDH’s. Cust, if retained, roves from LF to DH…
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
Options would be:
Uggla at 2B, give up the defense, get him out after his 4th AB.
Uggla in LF if he can play it serviceably (I have no idea, but his skill-set suggests to me that’s where he should have been all along).
Uggla at DH, Cust in LF (for 4 ABs).
Uggla at 3B if he can play it serviceably, package Kouz in trade to a team in need of an everyday 3Bman.
Uggla some time at 2B, some in LF, some at DH, occasionally at 3B, based on where he can play.
My favorite option? LF. But I’m not going to say it’s a possibility without knowing that it is.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
See that's the thing, at least IMO
I’d hate to give up Mazzaro for a guy who is a damn good bat but you have to find a place for him to play defense.
Pam liked my old sig better.
It's not ideal, for sure
But I’d still do it. Some of it is subjective — I don’t happen to be very bullish on Mazzaro going forward.
If he’s better than I think, it’s probably a bad trade, but if he’s exactly as good as I think it’s probably a good one.
He’s already had one shoulder issue, too, and health is a big factor in projecting a SP.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I could swear I have seen Mazaro throw
at least four pitches consistently this year. Fastball, curve, slider, and change.
And being a back of the rotation starter on this staff is not really a bad thing. I still think he will continue to develop and people should not be so quick to give up on him Long term, I say he he’s got a ceiling of a #3 starter…and thems ain’t bad apples!
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
youre right he has those other pitches, theyre just not very good
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5231&position=P
87% of his pitches are either fastballs or sliders. i.e. he throws about 7 change ups and 5 curveballs a game.
i dont dislike mazz, but like i said, unless you trade anderson, cahill, gio or braden, 4/5 of the rotation is occupied. that leaves no room for outman or ross – who both have the potential to be as good or better than mazzaro. mortensen is there and healthy as a fall back.
also the FA market is (comparatively) flush with reclamation project pitchers – de la rosa, webb, bonderman, sheets(?). the a’s are going to have to trade for a bat to improve their offense, and mazz has the best combo of “im willing to trade this guy” and “he’ll actually bring something valuable back.”
if a good bat could be had for josh donaldson, clay mortensen and henry rodriguez, id do it in a heartbeat, but sadly that aint the case.
Thanks for the info
Also, Webb might be a cool reclamation project but Sheets is done in my opinion.
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
Sheets is having surgery, he's gone for a (calendar) year.
So basically he won’t pitch until the 2012 season, if he pitches again.
Pam liked my old sig better.
I wouldn't trust those numbers.
It’s likely even more than it appears to be, as PitchFX calls a lot of his sliders as knuckle curves.
I've rarely seen Maz throw a changeup this year
Not sure why.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
He's thrown a few
but only a few…….
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
So Maz and 9.5M for one year of Uggla?
Seems pretty steep to me.
mazz and $9.5M
for one year of uggla, two high draft picks, a shot at the playoffs and the opportunity to negotiate an extension.
you gotta give talent to get it.
Uggla is not that big an upgrade
If he’s an upgrade at all.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
The draft pick(s) are assuming an arbitration offer
And type A status which a year at the Coliseum could easily prevent.
I don't think the Coliseum could prevent a type A year
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
He's definitely on the low end of type A
Has never played in the AL, and might be learning a new position. Couple that with a very little protection in the lineup and I can easily see him as a type B.
uggla rakes in sun life stadium
and that is a big stadium and hard on righties,i think uggla could handle hitting in the coliseum,though he is defenetly a down grade defensively,he would be a great offensive addition especially with the down year ellis is having.
How do you spell CUST?.....with a K.
take this into consideration
the A’s are high on SP and Defense because thats the way they run their organization, the marlins are thin on defense and heavy on power bc thats what they value. now SP is something that will attract the marlins but since when have they coveted defense?
Uggla's defense has actually gotten significantly better
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Aug 3, 2010 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions
the perception of Uggla's defense
is worse than it actually is. his career UZR/150 is -4.0. given his stick thats not a big deal – hes still a 3-4 WAR player.
people just cant get that one all star game disaster out of their heads (and he kinda looks like a meathead).
Yeah
He may look like a meathead, but I like how badly he wants to win.
More than the AS disaster, what stands out to me was how he called out Hanley last year for not giving 100% down the stretch, it’s nice to see he’s out there and pushing hard every game…
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Aug 3, 2010 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions
uggla fits the a's needs very well
acquiring him would allow the a’s to decide between playing carter or rosales (with uggla dhing) based on how good well rosales handles an everyday role and how ready carter is.
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Ellis and Rosales are both fine
It’s our COF that sucks.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
ellis is a declining 33 y/o with a .293 wOBA
and a penchant for injury. Rosales may be good enough to hold down a starting job, but is far from a sure thing.
Uggla’s bat is good enough to play at DH if Rosales can handle 2B. If not or if Carter forces the issue, Uggla plays second.
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions
any OF with Davis as a starter is not a contending team
nor is any with Sogard at 2b
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions
False, true.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Put Davis in the OF for NYY or TB or BOS
and you have a contending team. That was easy!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Aug 3, 2010 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Nope
Swisher → Davis is -3 wins
Cano → Sogard is more, but we don’t know enough about Sogard to say how many
Drew → Davis is -1.5 wins
Pedroia→ Sogard is more, but we don’t know enough about Sogard to say how many
Crawford → Davis is -4.5 wins
Brignac/Rodriguez → Sogard is less, but we don’t know enough about Sogard to say how many
Putting Davis in either NY or TB’s outfield puts them solidly in second place (although still in the WC lead)
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Nah. If I were the Yankees,
I’d platoon Davis with Granderson.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
That's a different point
If I were the Yankees I’d bench Davis and play Granderson. That’s differen’t from “Put Davis in the OF for NYY or TB or BOS and you have a contending team.”
Which is especially not true with Boston, who isn’t contending now with better OFs
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Yankees with 3 fewer wins are still contenders
Put Davis in RF in Tampa Bay and they’re still contenders if you move Zobrist to 2B.
Replace Ellsbury/Reddick/Hermida/Nava with Davis and the Red Sox aren’t that much worse off
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions
swisher is NOT 3 wins better than rajai
on his career, rajai has averaged ~ 2.7 WAR per 650 PAs.
on his career, swisher has averaged ~ 3.5 WAR per 650 PAs.
back of the envelope calculations and maybe those stats arent perfectly representative of their abilities, but you cant make a reasonable argument that swisher is any more that 1.5 – 2 wins better than rajai.
and yeah, if the yanks won 2 less games theyd still be contenders.
id much rather have swisher, obviously
just saying that swisher isnt 3 wins better than rajai, more like 1 or 2.
I was talking about this season.
I feel like we’re devolving into an argument about what the original statement was. To me it meant if you put Rajai into a good team this year they’re still fine, but it’s true Swisher is having a particularly good year.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
fair enough
though the yanks with 3 less wins would still be leading the wild card. and in tampa, davis would be replacing upton not crawford so the difference this year would be < 1 win.
the point being, a team with rajai davis is certainly capable of competing (though the original statement was also clearly hyperbole).
Meh, something's up with Davis' CF UZR this year that's killing his value
He’s always been a plus defender, he’s the same guy he has been, but his CF defense has been rated poorly (and Crisp, who has done nothing at all special defensively has a positive number).
Davis has been an above average hitter this year, so it really all comes down to how good he is defensively. I’ll side with his history (and watching him catch most everything), which suggests he’s really quite good out there.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Davis' wOBA suggests he's been almost exactly league average
which is strange since his OBP is .322 and he’s slugging below .400
Pam liked my old sig better.
I think that's it
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are."
– John Wooden
that and the coli is the coli
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Only SB/CS
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Speaking of Davis, he’s batting .318/.359/.477 in his last 54 games and the A’s are 29-25 in those games.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 3, 2010 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Of those 55 games, he’s started 50. He hits better when he’s in there consistently and he’s shown that. He started slow, but he’s hitting well now just like last year at this time.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 3, 2010 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions
That's usually true
and still true, really, but it does illustrate something important, which is that Davis is an extremely streaky player. Jack Cust is the same way.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
Davis's defense has always been overrated
UZR happens to be unusually bullish about his abilities. Other metrics are less so.
Prior to last season I remember that he was projected as a worse center fielder than Carlos Gonzalez (which is but one of the 90274037 reasons why the Holliday trade was such blithering idiocy).
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
Have you been reading the stuff about Gonzalez around here?
How good do you think Mr. Hackypants would be in the AL/Oakland?
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions
I basically don't believe that there is any difference
between the AL and the NL other than that the AL is better/harder/more skilled than the NL.
Whenever anyone says something like “player X is just an NL player,” my brain immediately turns off. I’m wildly unconvinced that there is any such thing as “an NL player.” I generally assume that any given player will just lose/gain several tenths of a WAR by switching leagues, and leave it at that.
So Gonzalez would probably be a borderline all-star instead of a legitimate all-star, but that’s about it.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
he's been soooo bad away from coors though
i know its SSS, and park factors should be used to translate his stats, but hes hit almost all of his HRs on the road. maybe he just hits a lot of flyballs that are outs everywhere else but carry in coors. i mean, thats what i want to believe.
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 9:20 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree
I think we are set at the DH/1B spot.
by RealBaseBallPerspective on Aug 5, 2010 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Why Dunn instead of Carl Crawford, who actually plays a position that's a weakness for the team?
Pam liked my old sig better.
Great question!
Because Dunn provides something we REALLY need: Home runs. Plus, check out his (excellent) on base percentage.
by HCF from Oakball on Aug 3, 2010 7:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Crawford is a much, MUCH better player than Dunn though
He gets on base a lot, hits for decent power (doubles and triples count), and is fantastic on the bases and with the glove. If those two guys are going to cost anywhere near the same amount, Crawford is the clear choice.
But the A’s would have to offer around $30M a year to get him. He’ll get close to $20M from the Yankees, and I really do think the A’s would have to overpay by that much to lure him.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 7:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Eh, I don't see this happening.
He’ll get close to $20M from the Yankees, and I really do think the A’s would have to overpay by that much to lure him.
I don’t think this will happen, to be honest. The Yankees are offensively weak at ONE position next year, and that position is DH. I think they go after someone like Manny Ramirez to DH for them, and then spend the rest of their money on the arms and throw a 200MM contract at Cliff Lee.
You don’t sign Crawford to DH. He’s not a good DH. Brett Gardner and Nick Swisher also shouldn’t be DHing.
I’m MUCH more concerned about someone like the Angels going after him, or the White Sox or even the Giants. The first two teams have outfielders that they NEED to push to DH, (Abreu, Rivera, Quentin).
Needs moar dingerz.
Boston is also an option for Crawford
I guess I’m using the Yankees as a placeholder for “Rich team that also happens to be a good destination for players.”
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 8:35 AM PDT up reply actions
How about we trade for Swisher or Gardner then?
They can play LF here.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
It's .366
Barton’s is .376
We don’t need home runs. We need good players.
Pam liked my old sig better.
I agree! We need good players. Thats why I prefer Dunn over Barton.
Dunn is slugging .568 this season. .523 for his career. OPS? .933 this season, career mark of .905
Barton? Slugging .389 in 2010, .392 for his career. His OPS: .764 this year, career mark of .750
by HCF from Oakball on Aug 3, 2010 8:02 AM PDT up reply actions
OK let me put it this way
Barton this year so far: 2.1 WAR
Dunn this year so far: 3.2 WAR
Travis Buck (-0.2), Conor Jackson (0.2), Eric Patterson (0.1), Jake Fox (-0.1), Gabe Gross (-0.6), Rajai Davis (0.9), Matt Carson (-0.1): 0.2 WAR so far this year
Carl Crawford: 5.1 WAR so far this year
What do you think is a better upgrade?
Pam liked my old sig better.
Plus, Barton is young and could very easily improve
Dunn, while he probably won’t fall off a cliff in 2011, doesn’t have 5 great years left. He’s also marginally, if at all, better than Cust as a DH option (and he’ll cost about 7 times as much).
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 8:14 AM PDT up reply actions
Which is doubly impressive since Cust plays in Oakland and Dunn in Washington
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 8:19 AM PDT up reply actions
Park adjusted has Cust at .402, Dunn at .391
And Cust is (amazingly) 10 months older, so not a huge age difference.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 8:27 AM PDT up reply actions
I like that middle of the order
Dunn 1B, Cust DH
Add Carter and Taylor to the mix as well.
by HCF from Oakball on Aug 3, 2010 8:36 AM PDT up reply actions
In that case,
why not just sign Werth, who is a true OFer, and keep Barton? Why sacrifice defense and trade away one of your only good hitters if you don’t have to?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
But wouldn't the value of a trade...
…depend on who the team can get in return?
by HCF from Oakball on Aug 3, 2010 8:39 AM PDT up reply actions
That's generally a good assumption.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Right.
And so your question is impossible to answer, unless we know what the team can get for Barton.
Damn. I have to get to work. Interesting, fun topic this morning.
by HCF from Oakball on Aug 3, 2010 8:45 AM PDT up reply actions
not really
basically youre saying Barton sucks because he doesn’t fit the traditional mold of a 1bman. Guess what most GMs like the traditional mold of a 1bman. They are right that he doesnt fit the mold but are wrong about the value of that mold. Why would a GM that doesn’t think he has the same value that we know he has give us equal value via trade? Oh wait he won’t.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions
It wouldn't work
the biggest part of being a GM is running a multi million dollar organization full of ex jocks that think stats are for pencil pushers and would hate someone who is 24 and probably openly revolt at my lack of qualifications. Im not even a genius stat guy like an MGL or a Tango or a Bendix.
The point I was making is that HCF’s argument requires GMs to think in a way that is contradictory to the way he thinks that they should.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
OK I'll be the GM and you can be the statguy.
I’ll also pull in NSJ, grover, PT, Taj, dannybot, and Pam/Shoes for uniform decision.
Oh and I’d hire Nico as manager.
I’m 100% serious. I think AN could run a team.
Pam liked my old sig better.
World Series, here we come!
But I’m only in if Pam/Shoes get a 5-year deal.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Each for 5
If I’m managing this team, I want to know that we’ll look good in 2015. So which is second base? I’ve always wondered. OK, I’m ready to go!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Can I fill in for Fosse as the color commentator?
Or at least be the bartender on the team plane?
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
No no no --
You’re in the dugout next to me. Those cups don’t just hold themselves.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
"M-Rod.......
…not just a cupholder anymore…!"
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
you rang?
I hold all cups
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2010 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions
AN could run a team but it would be impossibly hard to make any trades
because other GMs wouldn’t want to get swindled by us.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions
either that
or they’d be afraid they couldn’t keep up with all of our rock star partying..! Imagine the trades you could pull off once you got opposing GM’s totally loaded…
:-)
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
Um, is there a position for me?
sock puppets have never successfully defended castles, except when working with squirrels, which would never happen because squirrels know better than to trust sock puppets, except when their nipples have magical powers. -nm
by Leopold Bloom on Aug 3, 2010 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions
vice president in charge of marketing to
degenerates and lowlifes
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
Do I not get a job because I never joined GUBA?
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Added bonus:
I can double as legal counsel when someone sues our asses off for sexual harassment.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
"I, the undersigned,
agree to arbitrate all current, future, potential, hypothetical, derivative, and/or imaginary claims before a panel composed of one member of the International Chamber of Commerce, one Southwest Australian wallabee, and Richard Gere."
That should do the trick.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
Aesthetics.
Uniform Aesthetics.
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
I want an office and everything.
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
I'll set you up with a nice cubicle.
You can decorate it for holidays and stuff.
Pam liked my old sig better.
Lynn you should be in charge of hospitality
You’re a total natural at it!
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
Barton sucks?
Where did I say that? Argue all you want, just don’t put words in my mouth. Thanks.
by HCF from Oakball on Aug 3, 2010 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh...and because
Dunn is clearly a better hitter than Barton.
by HCF from Oakball on Aug 3, 2010 8:40 AM PDT up reply actions
and Dunn is clearly a better butcher than Barton
but Im not looking for pork chops im looking for quality all around baseball players
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions
Ooh, that sounds good
Thanks, I wasn’t sure what to do for dinner tomorrow night. ANy thoughts on sides?
not all that fair
since cust has an outrageous and unsustainable .409 babip. for their careers, dunn’s wOBA is .018 points higher. he’s a better hitter, though i agree, for the relative costs id keep barton and cust.
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions
his line drive rate is also up to 24.6%
up to 2007 levels
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
Yes, Crawford would add somewhere between 4 and 6 Wins to the team
I don’t see how that’s not the best use for $$25M in 2011
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 8:24 AM PDT up reply actions
I agree that it would be great to have him in 2011
I think the problem would be in the latter years of the contract cus it would really limit our flexibility if the new stadium is still getting figured out and our payroll isn’t able to increase in a big way.
by bakerbeachboy on Aug 3, 2010 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions
Then trade him
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions
I like Dunn just cuz of his awesome mutton chops!
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
If Dunn played for Geren, he'd be bunting up a storm
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions
The only real reasons I could see going after Dunn instead of Crawford
Is that A) you’re not likely competing against the Yankees & Red Sox. B) He’s less likely to get a longer term contract. I don’t mind an overpay, but I’d prefer it not extend beyond 3 or 4 years because we’d just wind up in another Chavez situation.
Choosy Feebas choose Leopold Bloom nipples
Daring. Sensual. Invigorating. Squirrel.
BLOOM. For men.
You know what's worse than a Chavez situation?
Having nobody good on your team. True, Crawford may get hurt. Or we could spend the money on nobody, or on 4 crappy players. Sign Crawford and risk failure or sign nobody or crappy people and guarantee it.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 8:21 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm with you on this.
The real problem with the Chavez situation wasn’t that he got hurt a lot. It’s that the team always counted on him to not be hurt.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 8:29 AM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
this needs to be green
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions
For the record, I'd prefer Crawford
I was simply giving the only real reasons to get Dunn instead.
Choosy Feebas choose Leopold Bloom nipples
Daring. Sensual. Invigorating. Squirrel.
BLOOM. For men.
Using Chavez' situation as a deterrent is a bad idea
You can’t control these situations. Elite players get hurt too. It’s always a risk, but good teams take those calculated risks. Chavez wasn’t hurt when they signed him and he didn’t have an injury history. They regress as well. I mean, A-Rod’s falling off a cliff as we speak. The A’s made the right decision extending Chavez for 6 years. It happens sometimes.
Needs moar dingerz.
You know what's hilarious?
ARod is signed through 2017. The good thing for the Yankees is that the contract is front loaded, but holy crap that’s gonna be a lot of bad paper.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 8:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Even with the frontloading
his 2.1 WAR in 2010 is already comically bad. If he keeps up his 2010 pace for the rest of his career (obviously, he won’t), that contract is already comically bad.
For those of you who want a (hilarious) WAR comp to make fun of the Yankees with, our Barton’s WAR is 2.2, and Kouzmanoff is at 2.0 flat.
Needs moar dingerz.
Would you really be surprised if he got healthier and became a 6 WAR player again?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions
I could see 4, I really could not see 6 again
A-Rod is not Bonds, and the PEDs are supposedly less rampant.
Needs moar dingerz.
You think a healthy A-Rod is incapable of being a 6 WAR player?
PEDs don’t matter for WAR because if no one can take them, replacement level drops
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't know
He’s missed portions of this season and last season with injuries.
He’s 35. Even if he recovers, it still takes a toll on his body, along with the fact that he’ll be 36 next season.
Needs moar dingerz.
yep
but wow, 36 with 6 seasons left on his contract next year? That’s crazy and it makes me super happy.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
Indeed, but
playing baseball professionally is not one of them.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
Agree with you that $120M+ commitment is scary
I like the idea of throwing big money at someone, but I don’t know if Crawford’s the guy.
Also, I tend to think that Dunn isn’t likely to have a huge dropoff playing half of his games in the Coli. Crawford’s career wOBA splits are negligible (.356 vs. .340 home vs. road), but his HR are coming in a bandbox half the time. Dunn could hit it out of any ballpark.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2010 8:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Tampa isn't a real hitter's park, is it?
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 8:36 AM PDT up reply actions
HR/FB rate park factor, 4-year
Tropicana Field: 111
Coli: 92
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2010 8:41 AM PDT up reply actions
Wow. Baseball Reference has Tropicana as basically neutral.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions
well, it is generally overall
But, if we’re asking the specific question “which flyballs are going to turn into HRs at the Trop vs. the Coli” this seems like a hell of a better number to use.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2010 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions
makes sense that a place with no wind is better for hitting dingers
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
What's the number when you take out balls that get stuck in catwalks?
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
Agreed.
Carl Crawford isn’t someone I’d give a franchise contract too.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Aug 3, 2010 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions
Nor I.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Too much risk involved in a guy who depends on his speed. You'll be gambling a huge sum of money on him maintaining that skill from age 29-35 ish.
His park and batted ball adjusted wOBA is .359, nearly 30 points lower than his actual wOBA. He benefits greatly in a good hitters park (park factors show a pretty big disparity between the Coliseum and Tropicana).
I don’t think he’s the franchise bat you’d want to build around. I’d rather the A’s bide their time and splurge on a 2011 FA agent hitter, a class far better than this year’s.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Aug 3, 2010 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't understand the regression
His BABIP is not crazy (second lowest of his career)
I also don’t think Oakland hurts him as much, because he isn’t a HR hitter so the heavy air isn’t as big a deal as it would be for other players
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I'm not quite sure I understand it either. The numbers, for reference, are from statcorner.
The Trop does favor left handed batters for extra base hits (2B, 3B) but it’s also very tough on them home run wise.
The Coli suppresses doubles immensely though, which is why I worry about Crawford hitting there.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Aug 3, 2010 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions
That's got to be it
And yeah, Statcorner is the place to go.
I’m just surprised it’s that much. Especially since the number isn’t adjusted to Coliseum but rather to “neutral” so it’s saying that (1) Crawford’s benefiting significantly from his park and (2) Crawford’s getting better outcomes than his batted balls suggest.
Both surprise me, but I don’t see an under-the-hood for that number.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Who's in the 2011 class that you want?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Adrian Gonzalez.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Aug 3, 2010 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions
You're probably competing with Boston and Seattle for him, along
with San Diego. I would probably be right there with you rooting for the A’s to get him, if they can’t get Crawford this year.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions
Doesn't matter.
We’re trying to create the best team right? I’m a big Barton fan, but this isn’t something stupid like wanting to replace Barton with Dunn. Adrian Gonzalez is the only player besides Pujols to put up park/batted ball adjusted wOBAs over .400 the last three seasons. If he’s on the team, throw Barton in left field or trade him without blinking an eye.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Aug 3, 2010 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions
It does matter
Adding 5 WAR to a position where you’re getting 0 is better than adding 5 WAR to a position where you’re getting 3 (from a young player who could certainly improve).
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Here's where we differ.
I think Gonzalez will be a better player than Crawford over the next five years. And Barton’s 3 WAR isn’t going to kaput, like I said, I’d put him in left or trade him.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Aug 3, 2010 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't know why Barton would be a good defensive LF
And his defense is a significant part of his value.
I’m also not convinced we’d get enough value in trade, because I think Barton is undervalued and most teams are set at 1B.
So I guess I just don’t think Adrian will be better enough (and, of course, wouldn’t help us compete next year / could be extended by SD next season)
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I wish I knew what the market for Gonzalez and Crawford would be like.
I think Crawford will be more expensive than Gonzalez, but how much so? I wonder if there’s enough budget room to fit both Gonzalez and Werth on the team…
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Aug 3, 2010 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions
The problem with spending a lot on a non-OF is that you still
have to fix the OF and you now have less money. OK, you’ve now spent all your FA dollars on Gonzalez. You now have to fix the OF with trades and minor leagues. You can package Barton with Ross or somebody and get a decent OF in one spot. After that you’re left hoping Rajai, Taylor, and maybe Weeks can cover the other two spots.
I’d be for it if Crawford weren’t an option, but I’d try to get Crawford first
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions
Continuing my post from above.
I think [decent outfielder] + Gonzalez is going to be better than Barton + Crawford over the next five years. I’d bet on Gonzalez having a better chance of maintaining his hitting skill set than Crawford maintaining his.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Aug 3, 2010 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions
dont discount adrian resigning with SD
he’s from the SD, he’s mexican, SD is f’ing awesome, the Pads have even less in salary commitments than oakland, and their young talent is already competetive.
But are they willing to commit so much of their payroll to one player though (and for that matter, is Oakland)?
Signing him won’t be easy. But neither is signing Crawford. The big difference is that pretty much everyone will be wanting to sign Crawford (big fish, small pond) while there are more options in Gonzalez’s FA class (big fish, big pond).
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Aug 3, 2010 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions
Fuck it! Just the fact that he;s Mexican is enough for me compadre'!
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
Or simultaneously having career years.
Their offense is worse than ours is. Chris Denorfia and Yorvit Torrealba having career years helps a lot.
Yay luck. They’re good, but not this good.
Needs moar dingerz.
torrealba and denorfia have 350 combined ABs
and are OPSing 816 and 754 respectively. theyre not the reason the padres are in first.
its the insanely deep and talented pen, the emergence of mat latos as a legitimate ace, the excellent team defense, and the depth of league average position players surrounding their superstar.
btw, i really wish the a's had found someone other than ryan webb
to include in the hairston deal. guys ball is just explosive. ernesto frieri has looked like a legit late inning reliever as well, and one of those guys will find themselves in aaa within a week….
unreal bullpen.
thats not really accurate
webb had shown that he was incapable of handling a starting role, true. but after being converted to the pen, he was doing quite well for a 23 y/o in AAA. take a look :
http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi
its not like his stuff all of a sudden got way better after he went to the pads. the guy is 6’ 6", was a 2nd round pick, and throws mid to high 90s with explosive movement and a nasty slider.
hes a reliever
who cares
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions
who cares?
anyone who wants the team to win more games i suppose. WAR is WAR and the A’s have had a lot of R (or worse) in their pen this year. over a full season, webb makes the team at least a win better.
plus having webb around would make it a lot easier to trade bailey – a plan you and i both endorse.
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Relief pitchers are generally low WAR
And very volitile year-to-year.
Mariano rarely gets over 3 WAR/year, and he’s freakishly good/consistent.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
right
but 1.5-2 WAR is better than 0, and the A’s have a lot of 0.
im not saying the trade was a disaster, just that i wish beane had found a way to get hairston (and by extension kouz) without including an obvious future late inning reliever.
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions
also
and i have no empirical evidence to support this, relief pitchers with excellent stuff and good command strike me as less volatile than the jeff tams of the world.
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Ziegler is 0
Wuertz is -.2.
everyone else has almost no innings or .5 and .6.
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
right
its the everyone else im talking about. if the a’s had webb we wouldnt have had to suffer through some of the edwar ramirez (-0.1) or chad gaudin (-0.5) or henry rodriguez (0) innings.
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Whos on first
AN: We is all growed up now.
by OptimistPrime on Aug 3, 2010 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions
rosales, i suppose
but youre misinterpreting what im saying.
my original post said that “i really wish we had found someone other than webb to include in the hairston deal.”
i wouldnt be at all suprised if webb has a season or two of 2+ WAR. hes really good. also his perceived value at the time of the trade was low. he was the 3rd piece IIRC. i wouldve preferred that they traded someone with a higher perceived/low actual value.
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions
lansford was the third piece
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions
im sure you mean italiano
who was not the third piece. see, e.g. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/trade-central/2009/268498.html
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions
youre right I always confuse the two
and italiano was the third piece hurt a ball starter with a BB/9 of like 5
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions
well, i already cited baseballamerica
but how bout danmerquery’s quote from padres blog at the time of the trade:
“Webb is essentially AAAA filler, but Italiano isn’t a bad prospect. Electric stuff with a bad delivery. The A’s were trying him the rotation, but throwing him in the bullpen and fasttracking him to the big leagues might not be a bad idea. He dominated low-A ball last year before struggling in high-A, but again, he’s not a bad candidate for a bullpen move.”
webb’s value was misperceived. thats my point.
http://www.gaslampball.com/2009/7/5/938982/scott-hairston-traded-to-as
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Baseball america didn't say anything of the order of the peices.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions
didnt say he will, said i wouldnt be suprised
watch him pitch. hes basically daniel bard light.
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions
You don't think he will, but you won't be surprised...
Hedge your bets much?
Pam liked my old sig better.
its foolish to speak
in certain terms about future events. especially where theres a human element involved. its one of the reasons i have so little respect for keith law.
really its just semantics. i like webb. he has great stuff. he’s been succesfull in the majors at a young age. he has the potential to be an elite reliver. better?
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Problem is
WAR is leverage-based. To accumulate a high WAR, Webb would need to be a closer or used extremely often in high stress situations. Adding Webb makes Wuertz, Ziegler, and Blevins lose innings and they lose value.
Is it better to have Webb than Henriguez in the pen? Sure. But it isn’t a big deal.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
are you saying that WAR
calculations take leverage into account or that WAR is less valuable in a middle reliever?
either way, Wuertz and Ziegler have combined for negative WAR this year and Webb is unlikely to take Blevins LOOGY innings. so im not sure the ripple effect would be significant.
i agree that it isnt a big deal, just saying that i like ryan webb. the guy has really awesome stuff.
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions
It takes it into account
because middle relievers ARE less valuable even if they put up the same stats.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
WAR is not leverage based its FIP based... well at least the one from fangraphs
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions
It's FIP based as well
But for relievers an extra element of leverage is taken into account. This is true on fangraphs.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
link?
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 11:56 PM PDT up reply actions
I know you prolly won't see this
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
thanks for the link
its not in the original explanation of WAR they did so im thinking that they recently added it, though it doesnt explain how they treat it.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 5, 2010 7:50 AM PDT up reply actions
I guess what im saying is
minor league failed starters with good reliever stuff are a dime a dozen. The Hairston trade is one I make every day of the week and twice on Sundays.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions
thats true
but healthy failed minor league starters with excellent reliever stuff and the command to use it in the majors arent nearly as common. the a’s
i dont know that people here understand how good webb is. hes has a career 3.12 gb/fb ratio, averages 95mph with absolutely explosive movement (nearly 11 inches of tail!), and commands a wipeout slider.
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions
i dont really get your point
because he wasnt good enough to be a starter hes not worth caring about? hes a good relief pitcher with the potential to be a great one. hes under club control for the next 5 years. his stuff is filthy. he could deliver 8-10 WAR to the padres. he fills a position where the a’s lack talent and depth. there are plenty of good and valuable pitchers out there who arent starters. all im saying is i wish billy had gotten the pads to take hrod (or someone else) instead.
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions
He was the A's depth... they traded him
Hes likely to contribute <8 WAR and get expensive eventually. This is what I call meh.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Pardon me for not getting terribly excited
about a guy with a 6.4 K/9 and a 2.9 BB/9?
Pam liked my old sig better.
let me repeat... RELIEVER
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions
all i said was that id have preferred that
beane traded a different reliever. hrod wouldve been nice. im not saying this was a terrible trade, but if you’re going to trade depth, you should be sure to trade the chips with high perceived values and low actual values. webb was the opposite. he was the 3rd piece in the deal.
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions
64.7% gb rate, 3.91 gb/fb
thats why he has a 3.02 FIP. he’s good.
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions
actually a high gb/fb rate doesn't change FIP but whatever
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions
fair enough, its still an an exceptional gb rate
and is no doubt the reason he’s been able to succeed despite a lowe k rate.
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions
And more to the point,
the A’s have a zillion minor league failed starters with good reliever stuff, starting with Fautino DLS and Henry Rodriguez.
It’s just not a priority at all.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
right
but like i said above, they dont have any failed minor league starters with great reliever stuff AND a track record for health AND the ability to control it at the ML level. im optimistic that FDLS can be an end of game reliever, but ive read your posts enough to know your thoughts on henry.
again, my only point was that beane fucked up by moving the guy with low perceived value and high actual value. he shoudlve sold on hrod or lansford. its just hard for me to believe that no one in the org saw webb pitch in aaa and though, holy shit, this guy is a future closer. apparently the padres did.
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Webb had not shown the ability to control his stuff at the MLB level
and did you consider that two hurt struggling starters might have needed a decent AAA reliever to get a good outfielder.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 6:09 PM PDT up reply actions
< 3 bb/9 isnt control?
wow, you have really high standards.
also italiano wasnt hurt at the time of the trade and webb was clearly the third piece in the deal. you completely ignored the danmerqury quote above, calling webb 4A. i guarantee that all of AN viewed webb as the third piece, and to argue anything else is just revisionist.
my points are 1) webb is nasty 2) the a’s could use webb right now and over the next few years and 3) i would have rather beane traded someone with a higher perceived value/lower actual value at the time (like rodriguez). i dont think any of those things can reasonably be disputed.
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 9:33 PM PDT up reply actions
a t control
Look I win this argument in one of two ways.
1) If I am right and the A ball starter with the 4.70 FIP who had surgery on a frayed labrum, got hit in the head with a LD, wasn’t out of the injury nexus, and had a career walk rate of 5BB/9 was the third bit.
or
2) That it was just as likely if not more likely that the other longshot reliever prospects that you mentioned were able to put it together in a Ryan Webb like manner
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 4, 2010 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions
well
i’ve refuted point no. 1 with cites, you haven’t provided any support for your position that webb was the more highly rated prospect. so you don’t win that way.
and it obviously wasn’t “just as likely if not more likely that the other longshot reliever prospects … put it together.” because a) that hasnt and wont happened – hrod lacks the command and his fb is too straight and lansford couldnt hit the broad side of a barn – and b) the a’s should’ve seen that webb was going to excel in a relief role, his velocity played up in the pen and he was putting up good numbers in aaa as a 23 yo after converting to the pen.
more to the point, you’re arguments dont refute any of the 3 points i made above. at all. and even in the new direction you’ve turned this argument, you’re wrong. italiano was not the third piece and webb is and was better than lansford and hrod. no reasonable argument could be made otherwise.
Dan isn't a cite, he wasn't even posting here regularly at that point
neither was rated by Sickles as a top 20 spec. They were both garbage.
12) Henry Rodriguez, RHP, Grade B-: Opposite of Simmons: blistering stuff but big command problems.
Henry was rated higher by everyone in the industry than Webb. He was just recently transfered to the pen with a look to moving him back to the rotation and had far more promise than Webb.
Guess what you can say what youre saying with Webb about every failed starter turned reliever that is successful out there. But guess what the road is literally with failed starters whose stuff should have made them good relievers.
Furthermore I don’t think its likely that Webb will be able to maintain the WAR youre looking at.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 4, 2010 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions
a cite is a cite
who cares if danmerqery was posting here or not? the guy obviously knows his stuff. you havent been posting here for very long and you obviously know a lot about a’s prospects. same for me.
more importantly, youre ignoring the fact that sickels listed italiano as HM on his a’s 2009 and padres 2010 top 20 prospects. webb did not make either list, nor was he mentioned by any posters in the comments section. its pretty obvious italiano was rated higher than webb at the time of the trade. so we can agree that point is buried? good.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/12/12/690649/oakland-athletics-top-20-p
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/12/7/1190680/san-diego-padres-top-20-prospects
and in addition to italiano and hrod, sickels ranked a’s relief prospects demel, carignan, hunter, leon, lansford, and thomas ahead of webb. it would be nice if beane had traded one of these relievers instead.
bottom line is webb would make the a’s better now, better in the future and i wish the a’s had valued their own player more accurately.
by NRC on Aug 4, 2010 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions
I am no fan of Henry Rodriguez
Nevertheless, he has more perceived value, more potential value, more actual value, and more of any other kind of value that you want to ask about than Ryan Webb does. Still. Today.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
how do you figure?
webb has better stats, better command, better health and better stuff. look at his gb% and fastball movement. theyre phenomenal.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7474&position=P
rodriguez on the other hand is almost entirely reliant (> 80%) on a straight fastball which he cant control. hes been generally hurt and or crappy since he reached the upper minors. hes been terrible in the majors.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6371&position=P
id be shocked if rodriguez ever has a season as good as the one webb is having right now. and rodriguez struggled with injuries the last two years while webb has been a horse since turning pro.
im stoked youre back and posting and generally respsect your opinions and intellect, but i dont see a single reason to prefer rodriguez to webb. and its not even close.
by NRC on Aug 4, 2010 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions
You realize that webb in his career is only at .3 WAR right?
and was worse than replacement last year right?
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 4, 2010 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions
im not too concerned
with SSS 23 y/o rookie stats. he’s got .5 WAR in half a season’s worth of action this year, so he’s already a 1 WAR pitcher. given his age, stuff and stats since converting to the pen, its very reasonable to assume he’ll improve.
by NRC on Aug 4, 2010 7:12 PM PDT up reply actions
He pitched 25innings which is about half a season.
Further doubling his innings for the rest of the year doesn’t make sense hes already played 2/3 of a season.
Please tell me why he is likely to improve when ive shown statistical areas where he will regress.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 5, 2010 8:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Look
This team will produce good relievers. Every year they get like 3 or 4 serious prospects out of the draft even without spending high picks on them.
Any trade which involves the A’s giving away just relievers for ANYTHING is almost ipso facto a trade that I’m in favor of.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
thats a little generous
i dont consider mickey storey or paul smyth serious prospects (nor do most analysts).
i agree that good relief pitchers are relatively easy to find, but great ones arent. webb has, imo, 2+ WAR potential. i see him pitch on a regular basis, the guy’s fastball is one of the better nastier in baseball. kevin brown like. no kidding.
i think beane dropped the ball in making him the 3rd piece of the hairston deal, and didnt properly reevaluate webb’s worth after converting him to the pen.
note that i never called it a bad deal (i dont think it was a great one either), just that i wish beane had traded someone else.
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 9:40 PM PDT up reply actions
most analysts didn't think that ryan webb was a serious prospect
you even said so yourself… so how are you bagging on storey?
Webb doesn’t have consistent 2 WAR potential.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 4, 2010 8:33 AM PDT up reply actions
cuz webb is and was way better
ryan webb – plus (maybe plus plus) fastball, plus slider. put up good numbers in AAA as a 23 yo.
mickey storey – average to below average fastball, above average curve. putting up decent numbers in AA as a 24 yo.
webb was a projectible 6’6" 4th round HS pick, storey is a small soft tossing college reliever. you don’t see the difference?
you should watch him pitch
then tell me that you dont think he has 2 WAR potential (i never said consistent, you added that word, though i suppose he consistently has the potetial to put up 2 WAR any year).
his fastball has 2 inches more tail and 2 inches more sink that fausto carmona’s. and significantly more movement than roy halladays. hes throwing strikes with it and averaging almost 95 MPH. he has a wipeout slider in the mid 80s. the guy is nasty. period.
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=7474&position=P
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=3273&position=P
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=1303&position=P
dude you realize that thats his 5th year of professional baseball right?
and that age isn’t really important for pitching prospects?
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 4, 2010 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions
its still important
but, youre right, its not as important as stuff. webb has phenomenal stuff. thats the whole point im trying to make. did you look at the pitchfx data – its absurd.
by NRC on Aug 4, 2010 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions
If Webb had phenominal stuff he would be a starter.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 4, 2010 6:00 PM PDT up reply actions
does mariano rivera have phenomenal stuff?
how bout billy wagner? neftali feliz?
just because webb is a reliever doesnt mean he doesnt have phenomenal stuff. he has an explosive sinking fastball and a very good slider. i already showed you that his fastball compares favorably to two of the best in the game – carmona and halladay.
show me another pitcher with as much movement and velocity.
by NRC on Aug 4, 2010 6:48 PM PDT up reply actions
carmona is hardly one of the best pitchers in the game
rivera was a starter in the minors as was feliz
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 5, 2010 8:04 AM PDT up reply actions
Analysts who know what they're talking about
do not consider any relief pitcher to be a “serious prospect,” in the grand sense, because they are almost totally irrelevant to the success of a major league team. Which is, of course, precisely the freaking point here.
Within the attenuated confines of relief pitching, Storey and Smyth are serious prospects.
As for “I wish Beane had traded someone else,” well, I wish he had traded someone other than Carlos Gonzalez in the Matt Holliday trade. I’m sure the D-Backs wish they’d have traded Jarrod Parker to the A’s in the Haren trade instead of Brett Anderson. So what?
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
with webb
the a’s would probably be a win better this year. given the leveraged nature of relief work, maybe more. like i said originally WAR is WAR and the a’s are looking at a lot of R in their pen right now. plus theyd be better equiped to deal bailey, a move i support.
the “so what” about alternatives is that this whole discussion was started bc i said i wish they a’s had traded someone else. ive since responded to counter arguments that webb a) wouldnt make the a’s better (he would, by at least a win/yr), b) isnt very good (he is now and has the stuff to be elite), c) isnt/wasnt better than the other relievers beane presumably could have traded instead (he is and was way better than every one of them), and d) wasnt merely the third piece in the deal (again, its obvious that he was).
and your analogies fail bc here beane probably couldve gotten the pads to take a more highly rated pitcher if hed properly valued webb at the time. the rockies werent doing the holliday deal for sweeney, i can tell you that. parker looks bad mostly bc he blew out his elbow – a fairly unforeseeable even – not bc of misevaluating talent.
finally, i agree with your point about relief prospects. even if beane properly valued him, webb was probably no better than the a’s 15th best prospect at the time of the trade. but comparing a 6’6" mlb ready mid to high 90s stud with good secondary stuff, health, command and draft pedigree to smyth and storey is a nonstarter. hes a lot closer to dls than those two.
by NRC on Aug 4, 2010 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Dude youre just on crack w/r/t Webb
plus theyd be better equiped to deal bailey, a move i support.
This just isn’t accurate. Webb is a pretty standard throw in AAA relief pitcher. Also the A’s would have had to protect him on the roster and he wasn’t better than Melon, Kilby, Devine, Outman, FDLS, or the other relief prospects youre talking about. Hes a fricking <1WAR reliever. Sign Joe Bemiel in the off season and hell give you the same thing. Hes looking like a FIP of 4 and an even higher ERA moving forward when you take into account a massive regression in HR/FB rate and strand rate, a likely modest increase in BABIP, and BB/9
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 4, 2010 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions
if by on crack you mean making cogent arguments supported by fact
then, yeah, i guess so. step back and look at this objectively. you really shouldnt be disagreeing with anything im saying.
webb’s xFIP is 3.38 so your HR/FB argument is bunk. if you dont give up many fly balls, youre not going to give up many HRs, regardless of the rate.
his BABIP is .313. league average is .290-.300, so if anything, he can expect his numbers to improve as his luck gets better, no?
his minor league bb/9 rate over 500+ innings was 2.8. its 2.89 this year. no reason to expect it to slip. rather id think hes much more likely to tighten his command as he matures.
his strand rate this year is 76%. thats basically league average. so again, im not sure what youre arguing.
and im not buying your 40 man argument. webb couldnt be kept because of kilby, who’s behind cedrick bowers on the depth chart? meloan who the a’s claimed off waivers? shit, they’ve been rule 5ing jokers and cycling through other teams scraps all year. teams find room for mlb ready 6’6" relievers with power stuff.
anyway, i really recommend you watch the guy pitch. it is a treat. as a san diegan and part time padres fan, i look forward to seeing him develop over the next few years, and if it goes as i expect, ill be sure to remind you of this conversation. you should feel free to do the same if he sucks.
by NRC on Aug 4, 2010 7:32 PM PDT up reply actions
look at a 4% HR/FB rate that will rise
look at ZIPs which expects a 3.87 FIP down the stretch.
He is as you say a GB pitcher, pitcher that are GB pitchers have higher BABIP than league average. Zips expects it slightly higher (maybe 10 pts), which is what i expect.
As for BB/9 I expect rise modestly as does ZIPs for the rest of the season. His BB/9 was 3.89 last year in the bigs and his walk rate isn’t nearly as shinny if you only look at the numbers at AA and above. Walk rates typically go up slightly in the MLB for pitchers.
The A’s have 0 rule 5 picks so this shit is just patently untrue.
Furthermore, you realize that the A’s exposed Webb to the Rule 5 draft before they traded him right? He isn’t a rule 5 joker because NOBODY not even the Padres wanted to take him.
Well I be sure to remind you that he isn’t Mariano Rivera quite often. Youre completely ignoring that he was below replacement in a good number of innings last year.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 5, 2010 8:15 AM PDT up reply actions
even if his 4%
hr/fb rate rises to 10%, thats what like 1 or 2 additional hrs over the course of a season? thats not going to change his stat line all that much. do you understand what an extreme groundballer webb is? his flyball % is the LOWEST OF ANY PITCHER IN BASEBALL with at least 40 IP.
how well does zips take into account the fact that most of webb’s milb stats were accumulated while starting? would it project different performance if it only considered his work as a reliever? it should – thats whats most relevant, and his aggregate line as a reliever is very good.
you totally mischaracterize my point re: 40 man. the a’s had the roster space to take a (shitty) rule 5er in spring training, so keeping webb this offseason shouldnt have been an issue. since then theyve used spots on jai miller, cedrick bowers, some guy named heether and now larish.
and while webb may have been exposed to the rule 5 in 2009, it was after posting a shitty season as a starter in AA. it wouldve taken some serious foresight for any team to select him as a reliever. at the time he was traded, he’d been converted to relief and had picked up several mph on his fastball (going from 89-93 to 94-97). totally different pitcher who wouldve been snatched up in the 2010 Rule 5. NO DOUBT. you have made no cogent point here yet again.
im not ignoring that he was below replacement last year in a “good number of innings” (24). its just a whole lot more relevant how hes performed this year. larger sample, older more mature pitcher. if anything, his ability to hold his own in the majors at 23 is a mark in his favor.
i never said he was going to be mariano rivera. but he may well be luke gregerson (albiet with a very different repetoire), and thats pretty fucking sweet.
ill say it again (and again), since you fail to acknowledge it. watch him pitch. with your eyes. then tell me hes generic. you wont be able to.
This is just wrong
im not ignoring that he was below replacement last year in a "good number of innings" (24). its just a whole lot more relevant how hes performed this year. larger sample, older more mature pitcher. if anything, his ability to hold his own in the majors at 23 is a mark in his favor.
The fact that he sucked it up last year is not less important than him sucking it up this year. He isn’t even that good this year and will end up being less than a 1 WAR player. His true talent is probably somewhere inbetewen at ~.5 WAR a year or you know your average blah reliever.
and while webb may have been exposed to the rule 5 in 2009, it was after posting a shitty season as a starter in AA. it wouldve taken some serious foresight for any team to select him as a reliever. at the time he was traded, he’d been converted to relief and had picked up several mph on his fastball (going from 89-93 to 94-97).
This contradicts your own point that Beane should have had the foresight to keep him if it would have taken serious forsight.
you totally mischaracterize my point re: 40 man. the a’s had the roster space to take a (shitty) rule 5er in spring training, so keeping webb this offseason shouldnt have been an issue. since then theyve used spots on jai miller, cedrick bowers, some guy named heether and now larish.This is seriously wrong. It is far harder to keep people on the 40man though out the season than it is to do so during the season when every single one of the players you mentioned was acquired. The reason it is harder is because the 60 day DL doesn’t exist in the Off season so that you can stash all your Eric Chavez’s and TJS patients and still keep roster spots for them. This is especially true since webb shit the bed pretty good when he was in the big leagues last year, so from a statistical perspective keeping him on the roster wasn’t a no brainer move even if we had kept him.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 5, 2010 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions
They are. He's a free agent after 2011 though.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Aug 3, 2010 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Dunn Please
Non-Tender Gross, Cust, Coco, & Ellis… Re-Sign Ellis & Cust at “Market Value” (Not “Stats Value”) to 1-Year + Club Option Year.
1. Rajai – CF
2. Barton – 1B
3. Suzuki – C
4. Dunn – DH
5. Kouz – 3B
6. Carter – LF
7. Taylor – RF
8. Ellis – 2B
9. Pennington – SS
SP: Anderson, Cahill, Braden, Gio, Mazzaro
Maybe even a step further?
How about Sogard at 2B?
I’d like to see four current River Cats in Oakland next year: Sogard, Carter & Taylor + Corey Wimberly, who plays five positions and steals bases every game.
by HCF from Oakball on Aug 3, 2010 7:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Wimberly has no business starting on any Major League team!
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Aug 3, 2010 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions
I believe you're wrong.
He can back up five different positions.
by HCF from Oakball on Aug 3, 2010 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Wimberley's MLE is .609
Doesn’t matter how many positions he can back up, we don’t need him on the team for any good reason.
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Aug 3, 2010 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions
So can I. Wimberly will suck less that I will but if your going to put up hitting stats like he does backflips or not youre in trouble.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Sogard’s slugging percentage tells me he can’t play here yet.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 3, 2010 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Ditto Wimberly
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
It's not that bad anymore.
Up to .383 on the year (.409 career).
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
He should be making $8-10 mil
But I think the A’s can have him back at $3, maybe $3.5.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 8:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Why should he be making $8M+ when nobody is apparently willing to pay him anywhere near that much?
Bob Geren... Jackie Moore without the personality.
because he adds more wins over a replacement player
and that should technically be the gauge of how much money a guy should make.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
Doesn't sound very free markety...
…and the free market is the sole arbiter of ‘worth’ and ‘value’.
Bob Geren... Jackie Moore without the personality.
Besides...
…so-called ‘replacement players’ suck, so just being better than that isn’t saying very much.
Bob Geren... Jackie Moore without the personality.
It's based on WAR values.
Figure about $4M per WAR, or maybe less if you think salaries will come down.
Pam liked my old sig better.
That's all nice and warm and fuzzy and all, but note the free market reference above.
He may be good. He may be better than many of these supposedly idiot GMs think. If so, then common perception trumps WAR.
People like to defend a player’s worth as what the market will bear when said player gets a huge salary. Ok, fine. It’s a two-way street. It works equally in both directions. Nobody has ever been willing to pay Cust $8M+/yr… regardless how shiny his stats. There’s no rational reason to think he’s going to get it now.
Bob Geren... Jackie Moore without the personality.
I didn't say that was what he's going to get.
That’s what his performance has been valued at if you consider every free agent signed to a contract and their WAR values.
Pam liked my old sig better.
Cust Isnt even worth a roster spot to other teams
hell, let him drown in the free agent pool and make him play for 1mm
No one is saying he's ever going to get $8MM
But, he is worth that.
Corey Hart’s extension is a great example of this though, since 2008, he’s been worth 4.1 wins over replacement. Cust has been worth 4.5 wins over that same period. So, Cust deserves more money than Hart, but wont get it because of other factors (no glove, little older, etc).
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
well, it is fair
to overpay Hart relative to Cust due to their age difference, because salary should be tied to the expectation for their future WAR, not their past performance.
Of course, that factor doesn’t come anywhere close to accounting for whatever the difference will end up being between Hart’s and Cust’s 2011 salaries.
If he were worth $8M, somebody would have snapped him up at half that.
$4M would have been such a deal, right? They didn’t even sniff his butt. Game over.
Bob Geren... Jackie Moore without the personality.
Yet here's Milton Bradley getting 3/30M
While Cust would be one of the best hitters in the league if he had enough ABs to qualify.
Go figure, huh
Pam liked my old sig better.
you are aware its because of perceived market value vs actual market value
that has let us keep our best hitter that many teams would kill to have right? Cust gets a job on just about any AL team at DH for $3MM. Other teams are absolutely kicking themselves for not grabbing him when they could. Custs preceived value is WAY higher than actual, and Corey Hart, a pretty terrible player until this year, is the reverse.
The Brewers will be kicking themselves for signing Hart, we arent doing that with Cust.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
I'm sorry, but I so do not agree with this.
The evidence is way too overwhelming that other teams do NOT value him anywhere near as high as many ANers do. I have yet to read a single item anywhere about teams kicking themselves for not getting him at $3M when they could have, nor have I read a single thing about Beane’s phone ringing off the hook with trade offers. It’s just not there.
Bob Geren... Jackie Moore without the personality.
You are literally arguing against facts and statistics here.
That nearly always makes the arguer look silly.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
I'm arguing for reality... nothing silly about it.
Your ‘facts’ are specious, at best, and downright fantasy at worst. How the free market works in situations like this is pretty simple and straight forward. If he were worth more than he’s getting now from the A’s, he’d have been signed for more than he’s getting from the A’s. Fact.
Bob Geren... Jackie Moore without the personality.
Because you haven't read it on the internet it's not true?
Really, you don’t think Kenny Williams would LOVE to have Jack Cust this year for $3M?
Pam liked my old sig better.
He did, yes.
We all know Ozzie Guillen came into the season with an aversion to “basecloggers.”
Cust was DFAd before Kotsay/Jones started their routine tread of suckitude.
Needs moar dingerz.
I majored in Econ and this argument is specious at best.
There are plenty of reasons why a employee would be get less than their worth on the open market. For example a nearly monopsonistic market, which guess what is exactly what baseball is.
You free market baseball libertarians really have absolutely no idea about the way economics really work do you?
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions
How is baseball nearly monopsonistic?
30 potential buyers seems like too many for a monopsony.
by Glorious Mundy on Aug 3, 2010 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions
14 potential buyers
with even less that didn’t already have a DH
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions
its not like Cust can start his own baseball team
and compete on the open market
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
right
basically there are lots of potential DH’s and very few openings leading to market inefficiency.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Fair enough, but that doesn't mean there's a monopsony
It means the supply of DH-only players outstrips the demand. Maybe the market inefficiency comes from teams that have locked in worse DHs to long-term contracts, which adds to the perceived price of signing someone like Cust.
by Glorious Mundy on Aug 3, 2010 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Well that could go in the asymetric information category
but really there weren’t very many DH buyers last off season and the baseball market often acts in a monopsonistic fashion in terms of its outcomes.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Cust being BETTER than most other DHs should be enough to prove he's not valued properly
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions
well there is this.
but i think the argument is the measures that we use to value cust (wOBA) is inferior to how the market values Cust. So pointing out our value system shows that the market values Cust worse than he is by our value system is kinda tautological.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, you could also point to other, more traditional things
Especially because we’re talking about DH, perhaps the one position where teams definitely don’t just go “wait, low BA and he strikes out a lot? That guy sucks.”
There’s not really a good reason why Matsui and Vlad got what they got and Cust couldn’t find a job unless “Name Value” actually determines how teams spend money. But I think we can all agree that name value doesn’t actually win baseball games.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions
name value does have some value
A GM’s number one job is to keep his job.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 6:11 PM PDT up reply actions
"Custs preceived value is WAY higher than actual, and Corey Hart, a pretty terrible player until this year, is the reverse."
Aren’t you actually arguing the opposite?
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are."
– John Wooden
Look, my point is:
Keep Jack and stop swithcing the team around. Maybe we’re not winning cause we’re meesing around with the team
I agree with keeping Cust
But the team isn’t winning because it has too many bad and/or injured players.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions
People who think that free markets automatically value one-off commodities,
with idiosyncratic advantages and disadvantages, correctly need to seriously lay off the LibertariAde and start paying some attention to the real world.
Markets are great at valuing masses of functionally identical crap like wheat kernels. They are actually pretty terrible at valuing baseball players, and I think it’s fairly well proven at this point that smart human thinkers are better than markets at that task.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
by PaulThomas on Aug 3, 2010 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions 6 recs
Your statement could also be interpreted as...
…“The stats say he’s as valuable as the next guy, but smart human thinkers know better.”.
Your statement could also be interpreted as saying that people shouldn’t get the verbal pounding they usually do when they say a player is grossly OVERpaid, because the market is terrible at being accurate. Yet, that’s what usually happens… a person opines that a player is overpaid, and gets jumped on for not understanding the free market, etc.
Bob Geren... Jackie Moore without the personality.
Huh?
Fangraphs just ran a couple of posts on negative trade value (which is to say, the ten or so players whose team would have to PAY the most just to get rid of their contracts). I do not recall mass outrage at the concept that those players are severely overpaid. Do YOU want Vernon Wells’ contract? No, I didn’t think so.
And people talk about “overpays” in the free agent market all the time.
Blog-types get grouchy when confronted with fans who reflexively complain that ALL players are overpaid because no one should get paid zillions of dollars “just” to play a game, or some bullshit like that. Especially when, as is the case an oddly large percentage of the time, those same people appear to have no problem with OWNERS getting paid zillions of dollars.
Complaints that players should get a smaller “pie” than the ~$3 billion per year that they receive, are usually vapid. Complaining that a particular player should be getting a much smaller piece of that $3 billion pie is a totally unrelated argument.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
I would like to point out that baseball players earn the lowest share of revenue of any of the major sports
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 4, 2010 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Holy shit I love you soooo much.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 6:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Supply and demand should be that gauge.
Choosy Feebas choose Leopold Bloom nipples
Daring. Sensual. Invigorating. Squirrel.
BLOOM. For men.
Supply is always 1
Demand is whatever the team that hired the player happened, as a historical matter, to have decided that he was worth.
This is a circular argument.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
Tops
Cust is under club control next year. All the A’s have to do to have him back is offer him arbitraion. He makes $2.1M this year and he won’t accumulate the counting stats to earn a significant raise. The A’s should definitely offer him ~$3M in arb even if they don’t plan to start him.
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions
Market Value =
What another team would pay Cust. Seems like the answer is < $400K, seeing that no one wanted Cust on their team this year. He’ll be a year older next year. He’s a black hole defensively, and his Offensive peaks and valleys are pretty extreme (it seems). ( I really enjoy his peaks, though).
It seems like more teams are getting away from permanent DH’s, and instead are opting to use the DH spot to rest a regular field player. There really isn’t much of a “Market” for Cust outside of Oakland.
That's wrong
He got a contract for about 2,6 mill in oakland, so you can’t say no team would have taken him for say 2 mill or anything below what he got here.
by Rio on Aug 3, 2010 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
this needs to be green
no other team wanted cust at $2.6m not less than 400k
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions
My Bad
I thought the A’s would have had to pick up the bill for Cust. Either way, Cust should be non-tendered again if Dunn is signed.
Cust would be a far better OF option than any of the crap we have now.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions
How is Dunn any better than Cust?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 8:21 AM PDT up reply actions
A .905 career OPS
is better than an.837 one. Quite a lot better, actually.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
OPS is not the right stat.
Unadjusted OPS is worse considering Cust plays here and Dunn doesn’t.
Cust this year has been the better hitter. He’s been about as productive as Swisher (although with less time)
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Dunn is still better
see below from WaddellCanseco. I’m not putting too much stock in what Cust’s done this year because it’s hugely inflated by the last 10 games and isn’t much of a sample, either. Career wise, Dunn is still better. From a dollars and cents point of view, Cust is certainly better value, but it isn’t my money, either.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
Career wise, Cust has a .367 wOBA and Dunn's is .385. There is no question about who has had the better career.
The question is whether or not you think Dunn is enough of an upgrade to a) lose the team’s best hitter, and b) cost about $10M per year for 4 or 5 more years.
I’m inclined to say no and focus on upgrading the combination of crappy left fielders that have been used this season instead.
Pam liked my old sig better.
I would prefer to have both Cust and Dunn at this point
though wouldn’t hesitate to upgrade Cust with Dunn if the left fielder was solved some other way.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
The 133 OPS+ is better than the 124 OPS+ but not hugely so, and league makes up some of that difference
I guess he has been better, but it’s not that big of a difference. The real problem isn’t Cust. It’s Davis, Buck, Gross, Watson, Carson, Jackson and everybody else in LF and RF
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions
Ya, Davis isn't really as bad as he's been this year.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Rajai
Is there a stat that adds Stolen Bases to SLG% (i.e. Total Bases + Stolen Bases – Caught Stealing / ABs)? If so, SB’s would add an add’l 25 Total Bases to his SLG…
.322 OBP + .476 SLG = 798 OPS
I’m sure I’m not the first one to think of this, and it’s probably not totally accurate… but I would take a 798 OPS for my everyday CF, top of the lineup guy.
Sure, but that's a VERY deceiving .798 OPS because OBP is more valuable than SLG
Pam liked my old sig better.
Better to just look at baserunning value
Caught stealing are a lot worse than your formula gives them credit for being.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
quick and dirty method
the break-even rate for SB is about 75%, so try subtracting 3 SB for every caught stealing.
But nevermoor’s suggestion of looking up a well calculated baserunning value stat is better still.
i think danmerquery
did a piece on factoring in SB to wOBA
Break-even rate changes depending on situation
But as a rule, 75% is only true in a really, really high run-scoring environment. With offense as depressed as it is, it’s probably a lot closer to 68-70%
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions
It's an area where I think WPA is the best way to analyze
Since players can choose whether to attempt to steal, and the outcomes are known.
Is there a way to get players’ stolen base WPA? I don’t see it on fangraphs.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
What you are also missing
is that SB, unlike slugging, do not move runners ahead.
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are."
– John Wooden
I agree with this, but
his wOBA right now is 332 (rc+108). he has negative defensive numbers. I much as I hate to admit it. I would be fine with Davis in center flanked by taylor and carter.
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
I'd prefer Coco in center flanked by Crawford and Taylor/Carter
With Rajai as #4.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
There are no "musts"
He’s an immensely talented under-30 player available for only money at the position of our greatest need. In other words, he’s a rare opportunity.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
If in your world we get Crawford
then Coco’s option shouldn’t be picked up. Rajai is 95% as good and cheaper.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2010 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions
Nope
Rajai is not 95% as good, and we need a 4th OF anyway.
Coco’s option is, in my view, a bargain.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
wan't really thinking about coco
you make a good argument. I’ll buy. If there was any way to flip him, I would not be disappointed with davis.
I guess I am just surprised at myself as I have been solidly against davis for 2 years now.
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
I'd certainly be willing to trade Coco for the right deal
But we need to pick up his option.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
with or without marshmellows?
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Gotta have whipped cream
I can't see, now I have to pee and I can't count to three but I can count to JAGERMEISTER!
I'd certainly be willing to trade Coco for the right deal
But we need to pick up Coco’s option
(better?)
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
It's open for discussion if he is really better than this year
by Rio on Aug 3, 2010 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions
True. But his projections for the rest of the year are better than his performance for this year
on offense using both CHONE and ZiPS and his defense for the past two years has been about 10 runs better than this year and he’s not hiding any injury that I can see. Of course if he’s hiding it well I wouldn’t be able to see it. I’d expect him to be better in 2011 than in 2010
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions
AN offense that uses only CHONE
would be sucking…Seattle Mariners anyone?
:)
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
They also use Gutierrez, Lopez and Johnson for good measure.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Dunn hits 40 homers every year, Cust is a career minor leaguer
How are we even discussing this?
Chris Carter is the next Hank Aaron right?
by streetisclosedin08 on Aug 3, 2010 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions
This is tautologically wrong
Cust cant be a career minor leaguer having played four seasons in the MLB
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Cust hits 25 almost yearly....
I can deal with anti Custiness, but “arguments” like this are what start the annoying, CGV filled Cust discussions. So please, have a real argument next time.
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
I like this idea Colorado fan!
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
This confirms [for me, anyway]...
…just how limiting the Chavez contract was to this organization. Was it a team-friendly contract when it was signed? Yes! But for the last three years, I believe, it has crippled this team financially because his [breakthrough season and] bat/gold glove have been absent. Biggest no-brainer in 2011: a three million dollar check to Chavez to take the ‘base on balls’!
Disagree about Chavez' contract.
I do not see how his contract… by itself… “crippled” the team. The team is not that destitute.
Bob Geren... Jackie Moore without the personality.
Are you sure?
The team can’t even get all its games on TV. It’s in really terrible shape.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 8:15 AM PDT up reply actions
key word:
‘that’
The team might not be that destitute. But I’d like to know where the revenue comes from when the fan turnout sucks so badly. Remember, a fifth of the team’s player-salary was dovoted to the Glass One.
by LowcountryJoe on Aug 3, 2010 8:25 AM PDT up reply actions
"1/5" is relative and subjective.
One-fifth recently, not 1/5 in the not too distant past. It is not inconceivable that the team could have easily paid more in payroll than they did, and chose not to, so using that as a measuring stick is not necessarily accurate.
Bob Geren... Jackie Moore without the personality.
Has money started to grow on trees in the Bay Area since my departure in 2002?
It is not inconceivable that the team could have easily paid more in payroll than they did, and chose not to…
Easily? How so? By taking losses?
by LowcountryJoe on Aug 3, 2010 9:23 AM PDT up reply actions
um because it was in the budget the last two years?
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions
because they attempted to sign players to contracts that would have pushed the payroll millions of dollars higher.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions
And then they spent it...
By signing Ben Sheets ($10 mil) and making the Rosales/Taveras for Miles trade (which cost the A’s another few million).
by andyinfremont on Aug 3, 2010 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions
they made larger attempted FA commitments.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Doesn't matter when
If the A’s offered 14m in contracts before they signed Sheets it really doesn’t matter if they only spent 10m they still have 4 left
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions
You forgot that they also signed Coco Crisp after other offers
I still haven’t seen any real proof that the A’s budget is higher than what they’re paying guys. I mean, maybe it could’ve been a million dollars more or something, but it sounds like you think they’re $5-10 million (at least) under what they wanted to spend.
Even if that’s true. Who should they have spent it on?
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Like this last comment:
Who should they have spent it on?
The A’s shouldn’t spend just because they have extra money around. The Warriors did that with Corey Maggette after Baron Davis and Gilbert Arenas turned them down (all overrated players, but beside the point).
Target the players you want and try to sign them at the appropriate level you value them at.
I agree.
And I think they only reason they gave Sheets $10 million was because they had the money budgeted and they thought he could fill a need.
I mean, should they have offered him $12 or $14 million just because that had a couple million more to spend?
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Well I did suggest they give Beltre $32m last year for four years. Still seems like a good idea huh?
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 6:13 PM PDT up reply actions
You apparently believe they spent every cent they could have.
That’s fine. I don’t, but that’s fine that you believe that.
Bob Geren... Jackie Moore without the personality.
There was probably SOME room.
I can understand that you might believe that there was more room than there actually was. And that’s okay that you think that.
by LowcountryJoe on Aug 3, 2010 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Here's how the team could have paid more in payroll:
by paying more in payroll. They spent $70 mil in 2007. Is there really a need for any further documentation? They literally already did it. They could do it again any time they wanted, and they could probably even go higher than 70. But we know they could go to 70.
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Aug 3, 2010 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree with this but to play the devil, the economy has shit the bed since winter 06
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions
But the thing about that...
the great thing about being broke is that when the economy tanks, everyone’s running around like chickens with their heads cut off worrying about their investments and their salaries, but I’m still just drinking my forties and smoking my Pall Malls and having a relatively good time.
Point is, the A’s live on luxury tax money, and I doubt their money situation has really changed that much.
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Aug 3, 2010 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions
pall malls.... eeeeeeewwww
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 6:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Your conclusion may or may not be true, but
your argument doesn’t support it. Let’s try it with a different example.
In May I blew $50,000 on hookers and gambling in Las Vegas. I literally already did it. I could do it again any time I wanted, and I could probably blow even more than $50K. But we know that I can go to 50.
Well, unless that was my life savings and I’m broke now.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
Insurance?
Did an Insurance Company pick up a part of the Chavez Tab for the past 3-4 years? I wonder how much (if any).
I think that stuff is privileged
but I suspect that’s why Eric played so many games
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
My theory, based on observed behavior and standard procedure,
is that there is a policy on Chavez that would pay off his salary were he to have a career-ending injury, and that policy has NOT paid.
A policy which is paying right now wouldn’t make a difference. It would just mean the sunk cost is less cost but still just as sunk. A policy that might pay off were Chavez to become unable to play would change the equation. It means that just cutting him outright eats a cost whereas putting him out there might not.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
I tried to look up insurance information for MLB re: injured players
I was not able to find much. Has anyone found good information on this subject?
Teams don't release their insurance information.
A few special cases find their way into the news, like Jeff Bagwell or Albert Belle.
You’re better off looking at the supply end. Take a look at some of the sites of insurance agents who specialize in policies for teams and athletes and notice what they offer. If something is common enough that they’ve crafted standard policy for it, it suggests that teams are buying it. MLB is a small subset of the professional sports world, so you’re still guessing, but it’s a start.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
It is funny how Albert Belle was on the Orioles 40-man roster every winter (until April when he'd be put on the 60-Day DL) for like 4 years after he effectively retired.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Albert Belle and Bobby Bonilla were among the great entrepreneurs of our time.
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Aug 3, 2010 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Buck, payroll, etc.
There’s a chance that Buck won’t qualify as a Super Two and won’t be arbitration eligible. He had 1 year, 170 days of service time coming into this season (172 days = 1 year). He was optioned just last week, so depending on how long they keep him down he might not be arbitration eligible. Even if he is, he’s probably only going to make $750K or so.
As for the payroll, I think the team buys out Chavez (duh), Ellis (unless he has a great two months to finish the year), and keeps Crisp (for trade purposes if nothing else). The arbitration numbers won’t come close to equaling $3 mil per guy. Kouzmanoff (who I really hope they just non-tender, but they won’t) will get a modest raise, but shouldn’t make more than $4 million. The same is true for Jackson. Cust, if he’s brought back, will probably be in the $3 million range (whether it’s a non-tender and re-sign or they come to terms on a 1-year deal). Rajai might get $2 million. Gross should be non-tendered. Devine, if he isn’t non-tendered, will get about $600K. I already covered Buck.
That leaves Sweeney, Braden, and Breslow. I’ll guess $2.5 for Braden, $2 for Sweeney, and $1.75 for Breslow since they’re all first-time eligible guys.
If they bring back everybody but Gross at the numbers I said, that’s $19.85M. Let’s make it $20M. Add in the buyouts/existing contracts and that numbers goes up to $36M. Fill out the roster with about 10 minimum guys and you’re only at about $40 million for next year.
They have plenty of room to spend on someone this offseason.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 7:48 AM PDT reply actions
Yes, we have plenty of money to offer Crawford $25M per year if we want to
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 8:22 AM PDT up reply actions
I just don't know if he's worth $25M
But if he’s worth $20M and it takes the extra amount to get him in Oakland, that would be worth it. Hell, if Crawford is a viable option, buy out Crisp’s contract and there’s an extra $5 million right there.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Ya I'd rather have Crawford and Davis than Crisp and Werth or anyone else
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions
The Crawford Talk is just Silly
There is now way the A’s are paying Crawford 20M/season. With no stadium on the horizon, money must be saved for extensions/contracts/arby-deals for Cahill, Carter, Taylor, Mazzaro, Braden, Barton, Cardenas, Gio, Weeks, Pennington, Green, Choice, etc…
One Player does not make a team (or help all that much, unless you’re name is Pujols). Strong Depth is Everything (See the Rays).
by Colorado Fan on Aug 3, 2010 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
You dont think we would be in better shape if we had Carl Crawford playing LF everyday this year?
Surely you jest. We are, simply, 1 really good hitter or 4 WAR player away from being very close to Texas right now.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
of course we would
but he’s saying that there is way Crawford signs for $20M here. He might be right — if I had to bet my own money, I would put it on Dunn instead of Crawford signing here.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2010 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions
But Dunn plays 1B/DH
We already have a logjam there.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
Even as a 2B
He still is 4+ WAR player. Thats fine by me.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
Neither
I don’t think there’s a chance in hell that the A’s will agree to another high-end multi-year contract with the possibility of several years’ payout with no return - which is the kind of contract Crawford will get from someone. Besides, I’d throw equivalence statistics out the window for this particular team: Crawford is de-valued on the A’s because the team desperately needs power, home run power, not just a better version of what they already have.
Also, if Dunn doesn’t want to wind up DHing at this stage in his career, he won’t sign with an American League team, and he’ll ask for trade restrictions.
The A’s will have Sweeney (no way he gets traded for value given his health), will be working in Carter and Taylor and would be fools to trade Rajai Davis, who has the ability to light a fire under the team whatever his other deficiencies. My guess is the A’s will buy out Crisp and trade Jackson and Buck,and non-tender Gross. You don’t want to rely on two outfield prospects to hold your team together (assuming Carter can play outfield on a consistent basis), so you look for an FA outfielder with power, which means Werth.
Given Cust’s play this year, I’d do what I could to keep him as well. Best case scenario with Cust, Werth and Carter is that you’ve got sufficient power to allow for the existence of Ellis, Barton and Kouzmanoff on your team.
by richwol1 on Aug 3, 2010 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
The A's desperately need good players. Focusing on one aspect (power) is a mistake.
Pam liked my old sig better.
I disagree
I mean, if Crawford were relatively inexpensive, sure. But you’re talking about tying up the A’s for several years with one player who can’t hit home runs.
The fact is that while Carl Crawford is a special talent, almost-Crawfords are not that special. Power hitters are very special.
I also think that the equivalence formulas, which were set up during the steroid years, don’t take into account the rarity of great power hitters in a post-PED world.
And Crawford has 12....
But this is Crawford’s best year, by far, for power. He’s never gotten to 20 home runs. Werth’s previous years (before this year) are 24 and 36 HR. This year he’s on a pace for 24.
Point being you are saying power hitters are very special, and that we need Werth because he is a FA with power.
Crawford’s game is not built on home runs, so playing in the Mausolem won’t hurt him as much. Werth is a slugger who plays in a bandbox.
Pam liked my old sig better.
Also...
That Crawford’s contract will most likely be six or seven years, and will cost around $20M a year, whereas Werth’s will be around three years and will cost $15M a year or less.
I don’t buy the argument that an unbalanced line-up with good equivalent statistics is worth as much as a line-up of power mixed with on-base skills. I don’t think equivalent statistics were created in order to project full line-ups, but rather to find ways to compare (as opposed to replace) players with different skills.
But mostly, if a team with limited resources is going to put all its eggs in one basket, that basket should be a game-changer, a “straw that stirs the drink,” and Crawford, for all his quality as a player, doesn’t fit that profile. (The truth is that Chavez, if he’d fulfilled his potential, would have).
Ok lemme use "plain" numbers.
He’s hit .300 5 out of the last 6 years, he’s been top 3 in the league in SB every year since 2003, and he’s a gold glove caliber left fielder
that’s not a game changer? really?
Pam liked my old sig better.
No it's not...
The difference between a .300 hitter and a .280 hitter is luck; stolen bases are over-rated; gold gloves are worthless.
But you knew that.
and yet I'd still take Crawford over Werth every single day of the week.
Pam liked my old sig better.
Okay...let me actually say the real reason I'd choose Werth over Crawford
The A’s have a Coliseum built over an Indian burial ground; there are dozens of witches, warlocks and voodoo masters who are chanting against the team, on a daily basis. All the doctors on the A’s staff graduated from the Will Ferrell School of Medicine in Port-au-Prince.
Crawford signs a 7-year deal with the A’s for $20M a year, and the team gets a half a season of Carl Crawford and six and a half years of Travis Buck.
Werth is a three-year deal that’s affordable. Putting all your eggs in one basket, even if the comments about HR vs other skills are correct, is just plain wrong for the Oakland A’s.
by richwol1 on Aug 3, 2010 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I wouldn't give Crawford 7 years though
I’d offer 4 years at whatever monumental overpay it would take. 22M? 25?
Pam liked my old sig better.
Yeah, I think that would be unprecedented.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Aug 3, 2010 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions
they dont have anyone else to spend
it on for 2011 and 2012, and id hope by 2013 they’d have a new ballpark and an 80-100M payroll
You're still taking about 40% of payroll on one player
And the year of completion of a new ballpark is very much up for grabs.
Not to mention the idea that one player leaves you little flexibility if you find yourself a starter or position player short of pennant contention.
why would you do 4/100 when you could easily do 6/100
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions
I think the point is shorter at premium vs. longer
If you think 6/100 is the number, then the other option would be like 4/80
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Because you're hamstringing yourself for six years rather than four
It’s the rare player that maintains his skills for all six years of a six-year contract. Carl Crawford will be 36 years old at the end of a six-year contract. Teams like the Yankees and Red Sox can build those final two years into their budgets. A team like the A’s cannot.
I'd do 100/4 over 100/6 anyway
But I wouldn’t do either.
Huh?
You don’t want the last two years free?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
In terms of what offer he might accept
He’s more likely to accept 100/4 over 100/6.
I thought you meant you
As an A’s fan. I agree that Crawford would prefer 4/100
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I think that Crawford probably signs for 100 total
the years don’t really matter.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Of course they matter
If Crawford is healthy at 34, his next contract could earn him an additional $10M/year for three years.
If he’s injured after the first or second year, then it’s probably all the same.
well obviously hed prefer it
hes going to sign for 100m for 6 years.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions
We're all talking through our hats
We have no idea what offers will be made, or what he’ll accept. Crawford is more likely to sign with a perennial pennant contender than a team like the A’s; perennial pennant contenders tend to have more money available than a team like the A’s; perennial pennant contenders can go out and get players to augment Crawford if needed whereas at these prices the A’s cannot.
If the A’s sign a lesser (affordable) player like Werth, then after 2011, should Carter and/or Taylor transition to quality players, and with the rotation at peak, it will probably be easier to pick up a player who understands he’s part of something special.
You're right as to dollar amount (to an extent)
But I’m not interested in whether he will sign. I’m interested in whether we should make the best offer.
And while you’re right that top teams usually have the most money, we’re sitting on a pile this off-season.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Here's a problem though
Let’s say they sign Crawford for $25M a year in the off-season. That leaves no room for taking on more salary during the season, particularly if there’s an injury to the pitching staff. You’re treading a very fine line here.
We have like 8 SP who are MLB-capable
And if we don’t sign him then we go into the season with a black hole, so there’s no line to tread.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Eight?
I count the five current starters.
I wouldn’t rely on Tyson Ross or Clay Mortensen for anything. We have no idea what Josh Outman will be like when he comes back, if he comes back. Brett Tomko will be a free agent, assuming we even want him.
I'm counting the current 5
And Ross, Mortenson, Outman
So you’re right it’s a stretch. I think both Ross and Mortenson would be fine as #5s, but you’re right about Outman. We also seem to be able to get ok performances out of the DiNardos and Tomkos of the world who are freely available.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Also....
The odds are very much not in the A’s favor in terms of signing Crawford. Sounds like you’ve given up on 2011, even before the 2010 season ends.
I don't understand this
With Crawford I think we compete in 2011, without him I think we’re screwed.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
{double-checks career "Thursday" splits}
Yup, me too.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
It's built on doubles, which will hurt him that much (playing here at the Coli).
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Aug 3, 2010 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Eh, take triples park factor data with a grain of salt.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Aug 3, 2010 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions
you realize that werth hits in a bandbox right?
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions
You're overrating HRs
And he is a special talent, at our weakest position.
So lets go for it.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
In other words...
…you’re comfortable with a team that can’t hit homers.
You’re right, there’s no arguing.
We need a few more homers
The whole team is built around"scratch out a hit, steal, try to score" all small ball
Why not just get the best players and worry about "mix" second?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions
nah, we're looking at a team with a crappy offense
if they had 9 bartons (or hattebergs for that matter), theyd be in much better shape
This!
Power hitters generally are better than non-power hitters (because power is good). In specific cases, that breaks down (Crawford is better than Hart, for example).
Our problem is shitty corner outfielders.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
No argument on any of that.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
value of power
FWIW, I ran a lot of lineup simulations, comparing the ability of the team with power hitters to score runs versus a team of same OPS, but without power (power being HR power, which I think is what you are talking about).
I found no advantage for a team with more HR hitters.
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are."
– John Wooden
You need to bookmark that simulation post.
Just whip it out every day when someone insists that we need power more than we need good players.
You need both, dude.
Power is an essential component of a winning team, as is good starting pitching. As are good players. All are important, none so important so as to be worthwhile at the exclusion of the others.
Anyway, run simulations of the Opening Day rosters and see if San Diego has the league’s best record! That still confounds me.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Oh, of course.
Power is a very good thing. It’s just that power doesn’t become more valuable because we have none.
It does a little, actually, IMO
But I believe in balance to a certain degree. You need to have the tools to beat different teams, different pitchers, and to win games from different situations.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
19-12 in one run games...
the bullpen baby. possibly the best of all time.
mat latos is also one of the best pitchers in baseball (legitimately), and adrian is the best player in the division.
To me, that says they're dead in the postseason.
The measure of a good team isn’t how they do in one-run games. It’s the ability to avoid them. Not only will offensively superior teams not give the bullpen enough opportunities to deliver those close-game wins, but it will wear down the bullpen quickly.
I hope I’m wrong, because I’d be way on board with the Pads going to the World Series and beating the Rangers or whoever, but I don’t think the bullpen can deliver them a championship.
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Aug 3, 2010 5:46 PM PDT up reply actions
So spaketh Nico
And therefore it is true.
Or did you have some support for your statement?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 3, 2010 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
strongly rec'ed turn it green people
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions
LOL, the schoolyard bullies are out!
And I have to leave for the day to go corrupt young minds. Have fun in my absence.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Memo to site
This is a good thread. Please lets not go down the meta path.
I would like to see any support anyone has for the statement that HR hitters are more important than good hitters or that power is a necessary component. I’m not aware of any.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 3, 2010 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Obviously, neither am I
One thing I could imagine is that HR hitters are more easily predicted for future performance. Now, I know this is not what “power lovers” are arguing, as they don’t care about predictability, but rather about effectiveness.
Still, it would be an interesting study to see how much more or less success predicting systems have with power hitters as opposed to non-power hitters. I could imagine it going either way: home-runs are defense independent, yet a slight dip in power will hurt a home-run guy more than a doubles guy.
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are."
– John Wooden
I'm not aware of any
But I’d certainly rec a FP that did one.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I remember reading that TTO type
hitters are more streaky than Sweeney-ish players.
Thinking about our current team would seem to support that.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
What it really is is that home runs are REALLY streaky
Walks are actually less streaky than singles.
A player who only ever hit singles and homers and never walked would be uber-streaky (think Dave Kingman), whereas a player who walks and singles and never hits homers would be Reggie Willits. And who ever heard of Reggie Willits being on a hot streak?
Players who only hit homers and walk are actually in the middle of that spectrum, oddly.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
Thanks, Paul.
I couldn’t remember the exact break-down.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
About the only support for it that I'm aware of
is that there’s some evidence that teams with tons of Barton types have more erratic run scoring, i.e. you might get a game with 8 runs and one with 1 instead of one with 6 and one with 3, when the second is much more likely than the first to lead to two wins.
The effect, if there is any, is minimal and massively outweighed by the general sports dogma that you should put the best players on the field first and figure out the details later.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
Last line is the key one
Sure, in a perfect world nobody would want 9 Bartons. But the A’s are not playing in a perfect world, and they’ll never be able to assemble the perfect team. Screw balance; just give me guys who can play.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions
I am not sure I agree with you on this one
Good starting pitching is not comparable to good power hitting. Good starting pitching is comparable to good hitting, period.
If you want to draw a parallel, it would be more that power hitters are akin to strikeout pitchers. True, it is much easier to find quality hitters among the ones who have good power numbers, and quality pitchers among the ones with good strikeout rate, but many ways lead to Rome.
You can not compare power with good, as it is simply not on the same level. Power is a component of being good (one whose importance we might disagree on), not a quality existing next to it. It is a component, just like speed, average, etc.
It is like designing a car with purpose of getting the maximum mileage on a single refuel. Such a car will be good or bad depending on fuel tank capacity and consumption, a better car having a bigger tank and lower consumption.
You can not say we need good cars and cars with big tanks, as the tank capacity was already considered when deciding whether the car was good in the first place.
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are."
– John Wooden
Pedro Feliz, Rod Barajas, Bill Hall
Chris Davis, Andruw Jones, Bengie Molina, Jeff Francoeur, Khalil Greene, Jose Lopez, Clint Barmes, Brandon Inge, Joe Crede, Eric Byrnes, Chris Young, Juan Uribe, Garret Atkins…
And the beat goes on…
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are."
– John Wooden
To be fair,
a couple of those people are actually pretty good. Like Chris Young.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Aug 3, 2010 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Chris Young is a good player
But Chris Young is a bad hitter. He is good because he is also great on bases and with the glove. His OPS+ from last 4 years is 90. That is a bad hitter.
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are."
– John Wooden
He's not great with the glove, at least not historically.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions
To be honest
I didn’t really look it up. The important point I was trying to bring across is that he is one of the plethora of power hitters who are overall poor performers when it comes to hitting.
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are."
– John Wooden
These are just some of the players
who hit a lot of home runs, yet are overall bellow average hitters.
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are."
– John Wooden
I think what he is saying is that sometimes you need power
in game situations. To use your car analogy, sometimes you want/need a car for maximum range. Sometimes you want a car for maximum torque. Sometimes you want it for maximum speed. Ideally, you want your car to be able to perform each task really well, but one thing that might limit you on vacation in the desert (late innings) is limited range.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2010 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Sure
But having that power at expense of other qualities, will hurt you in other game situations.
And as for car, it is irrelevant what qualities we decide to be the ones that make the car good. Add torque, color and leather seats, too, if you want. We can all make our definition of what is important, but once e do, every such component is exactly that – only a component. Some will help in some situations, some in other. The only time when you can equal importance of a single component with the combination of the overall quality, is when there is only one component to start with, or when it is incredibly more important than all the other ones. And power component of hitting is no such thing in my opinion.
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are."
– John Wooden
we don't have to choose
If we keep Crisp/Rajai, and have a guy like Jackson around, we have the speed components and triples/doubles components. It is not necessary to find one guy who embodies all those things, and it’s also okay to have guys that are deficient in one area so long as you have another guy to make it up.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2010 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Why Jackson?
I don’t see much value. Albeit Sweeney has bad knees, but is Jackson really the answer?
Or Sweeney
either of those guys will hit doubles until they’re blue in the face. I tend to think Jackson is a better player because Sweeney’s big value was decent and likely won’t be anymore.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2010 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions
I think this brings us back to square one
You think that a balanced lineup — little bit of doubles, SB, triples, HR… — has an advantage over one that simply has the best quality players, regardless of their quality component distribution. I don’t.
In other words, would you object a lineup full of Adrian Gonzalez and Justin Morneau kind of hitters, because it is not balanced, as those guys have no speed whatsoever?
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are."
– John Wooden
of course, but those guys are both great hitters in their own right
Who needs to steal bases when you hit the ball out of the ballpark? No one cared that we stole like 20 bases a year in the early aughts because we had good hitters, who also hit the ball out of the ballpark a lot.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2010 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Exaclty
As long as they are overall good offensive players, you couldn’t care less whether the lineup is balanced or not. You can live with the lack of speed and good baserunning, as long as their other qualities offset that.
In my opinion same is the case for power. I don’t care if players don’t have power, as long as their other qualities offset that. I think a player can be a good offensive player without power (or a bad offensive player with power), but I guess we will just have to live knowing that we disagree on that one.
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are."
– John Wooden
If you got to choose who batted in every situation, sure
Since teams don’t get to do that, this is of limited relevance. It’s like having a swiss army knife but only being allowed to choose a tool at random. What’s the fucking point?
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
Corkscrew?
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 6:16 PM PDT up reply actions
And as for San Diego
I am pretty sure you were just being humorous and not dissing the value of such a simulator, but just in case someone else who might be reading is wondering.
The lineup simulator has no predictive value on players’ performances. It is not Pecota, Chone or any of the similar. So San Diego being better than some people predicted has nothing to do with the LS (lineup simulator) being accurate or not.
Now, if one wood feed the individual stats of San Diego hitters (or any other team, for that matter) into it after the season is over, and the simulated offense produced would be vastly different than the one that actually happened, than that would be a true shortcoming of such a tool. In the tests that I have ran, nothing of the kind happened.
Where the tool excels is looking at the effect a certain type of hitter can have on a team output, for example comparing power hitters versus non-power hitters of the similar quality. It is not a be all and end all of whether the power hitters are necessary in a lineup, but it is the best I’ve got and more than most other people have.
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are."
– John Wooden
Is that weighted OPS or straight OPS?
If it’s straight OPS, then the power hitters should be worse, because straight OPS overvalues slugging. If two guys have the same OPS then the one who gets most of it from OBP is better.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
It is both
I kept both OBP and SLG the same, while only twisting the HR (exchanging 1 HR + 2 1B for 3 2B).
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are."
– John Wooden
Crawford's name is Pujols.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions
Just because you asked:
2008-2010 so far:
Crawford — 13 Fangraphs WAR + 1.5 Baserunning WAA = 14.5 WAR
Pujols — 22 Fangraphs WAR + 0 Baserunning WAA = 22 WAR
Conclusion: Pujols is a lot better.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions
Pretty much agree with everything you said here...
…especially the “one player does not make a team” part.
Don’t get me wrong, Crawford would be a great player to have. But, we’re not needing a “finishing touch”, or a “last piece of the puzzle”, we need a cornerstone and to continue building from there. While I do think we could have spent more than we have the last couple years, I do recognize that we don’t have unlimited resources, so spending that much on one player in our situation would not be wise.
Bob Geren... Jackie Moore without the personality.
I hate that term
“cornerstone” the A’s wont win by trying to get a “cornerstone” they’re going to need 25 guys of near same talent to milk out wins, much like they’re doing this year.
Forget about one. They can't/won't afford it, and there isn't one on the market this year anyway.
There’s no Holliday or Teixeira, but Crawford is a damn good player and putting him in the lineup over the garbage that’s appeared in left field this season would absolutely put the A’s in contention for the division.
Pam liked my old sig better.
the A's should take a class from Maddon and the Rays
sit down your hitters, put clear goals in certain offensive areas and roll with it. its how pena can hit .216 and still produce such huge run totals
We have a lot of ok players and great pitching
Adding a superstar is the missing piece, and fortunately there’s one available for just money at a position where we are a black hole of suck.
This is, basically, the universe telling us to go hard after Crawford. If we had him this year we’d be a game or two back of Texas.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Nah, he'd probably be on the DL. ;-)
Bob Geren... Jackie Moore without the personality.
by UncleLeo on Aug 3, 2010 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sure, if you assume he would be performing nearly as well with the A's as with the Rays (he wouldn't).
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Aug 3, 2010 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions
He'd be performing a LOT better than what we have
If we knocked a win off his WAR we’d have gone into the Texas series out a couple games and very much in the race.
How far are you regressing him?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
WAR isn't that literal
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2010 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Hard to say.
His WAR numbers are taking into account his laughable UZR numbers (his UZR/150 this season is 36.6 which is far beyond his career of 15.9, and more than doubles second place Juan Pierre’s 15.0). Needless to say, I’m not sure his UZR, and consequently his WAR, can be trusted. But if we assume his career rate for UZR/150 (15.9) plus his adjusted wOBA (.359), I’d say he’s been roughly a 4 WAR player up to this point.
Meanwhile A’s left fielders, while atrocious in the field, have managed a league average .331 wOBA, unless I’m looking at Fangraphs wrong. I think it’s fair to say the A’s have managed at least 1 WAR out of the LF position this year so with Crawford on the team….the A’s might still be 4 or 5 back of the Rangers, which is quite a bit more than your 1 to 2 games back assertion.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
If you add up all the non Coco/Rajai outfielders you get 0.1 WAR
So I’m saying he adds his full WAR to our bottom line.
Weren’t we 6.5 back at the time? 6.5 – 4 = 2.5 which I thought was fair to call a couple games back.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
We are currently 8 games behind Texas
If we had him this year we’d be a game or two back of Texas.
Are you saying Crawford has 6 or 7 WAR so far this year?
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
Oh, nevermind. I just saw your equation above.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
agree to some degree here...
the A’s appear to be delaying any big contracts until the stadium deal is finalized. With so much financial uncertainty in the future [stadium], it is important for the A’s to keep flexibility with regards to the payroll [shorter term contracts]
Doesn't matter anyway
Buck should be released.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on Aug 3, 2010 8:34 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm not sure I can pick a healthy player in the entire organization who I'd rather see in an OF spot than Buck right now
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 8:37 AM PDT up reply actions
this
might as well call his ass up now. Better than the Matt (splat) sandwich we have now.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2010 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions
That's because our organization's outfield sucks
not because Buck is good.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
Right, but there's no point in releasing one of your better players who also happens to not cost anything
I’m not saying don’t get anybody better, but don’t get rid of him until they do.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't see why Buck isn't playing in place of Watson
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions
Why?
Buck’s AAA numbers are horrible right now. I’d like to see more than a week of high production/health before we bring him up again.
by andyinfremont on Aug 3, 2010 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Even with horrible AAA numbers, he's probably still going to put up slightly-less-horrible ML numbers than Watson/Carson
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions
The best 4 healthy outfielders on the team are Rajai, Crisp, Larish, and Buck.
They should get the bulk of the starts and be on the 25 man
Needs moar dingerz.
I don't think Larish has ever played the outfield
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Buck really struggled his first several games back from the DL
If I remember correctly, he’s been hitting well recently.
That's fine.
I don’t really care which of the four they keep, as long as they’re not playing more than once a week.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
Buck's shown he has the potential.
I’d like to see him get one more shot.
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
don't shoot buck... he'll go on the DL for sure that way.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions
brandishing any weapon, or hard object at buck
puts him on the dl
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
Buck would go on the DL if you poked him with a soft cushion
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
[pokes PT with a soft cushion]
[runs away, giggling]
sock puppets have never successfully defended castles, except when working with squirrels, which would never happen because squirrels know better than to trust sock puppets, except when their nipples have magical powers. -nm
by Leopold Bloom on Aug 3, 2010 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Bring forth the comfy chair!!!!!!!!
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 6:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Buck is a total waste of time
2007 was so long ago, he’s been completely worthless since.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
he hasn't played any
He’s better than AAA — he’s torn that up multiple times. So, we should figure out what he can do for the next 2 months. No harm, right?
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2010 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions
"He hasn't played any" isn't exactly a ringing endorsement. LOL!
In all seriousness, this is another problem the needs needs to quit doing… hanging onto habitually injured players on the faint glimmer of a hope that they’re going to suddenly stay healthy.
Bob Geren... Jackie Moore without the personality.
This, this, a thousand times THIS.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
Well, supposedly it worked with Pennington
Either he sucked or played injured a lot. I keep Buck as long as he’s cheap. I mean if someone wants him for a C+ prospect I trade him, but there’s no point in throwing away assets that have upside.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Travis Buck:
went to college in Tempe, bad acne, one half of a good season, cant catch up to a good fastball or stay healthy since…
I only have one problem with your post here jd44
Non tendering Kouz= A very bad idea. No worries though because as you said, the A’s absolutely will not do that. Problem solved.
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
Don't you have to be good to be a super 2?
Buck hasn’t exactly been good….
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
No, you don't.
You just have to accumulate the number of service days required to make the Super Two threshold.
The current CBA forbids any performance-based contract escalators/bonuses/eligibility (except for awards: i.e. Cy Young, ASG selection, etc. and plate appearances)
Needs moar dingerz.
Thanks for the clarification.
I found this in wiki
Has at least two years of major league service but less than three, AND is among the top 17 percent for cumulative playing time in the majors in this class of players, AND was on an active major-league roster for at least 86 days in the previous season.
Wouldn’t the last part of that make Buck ineligible for super two?
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
Im pretty sure the DL counts
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions
It does. As long as it's the Major League 15 or 60 Day DLs.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions
bingo
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 6:17 PM PDT up reply actions
but this time in Sacto might keep him off though.
He was optioned down, might save him a year before super 2.
Needs moar dingerz.
There's something cosmically wrong with Buck being arbitration eligible already.
Then again, how can you deny the hair?
Bob Geren... Jackie Moore without the personality.
Stupid hair
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 8:23 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm jealous of everything, except the hamstring. Or wtv is wrong with him.
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
Could they go FA shopping? Sure. Will they?
My ‘spidey sense’ sense says no. At least not in any meaningful way.
Bob Geren... Jackie Moore without the personality.
I don't like your spidey sense
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 8:23 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't either... in this case... but I can't deny it.
I just don;t see the team willing to go to that great a length. And I’ll admit that the recent Beane interview where Beane basically said the team is in a holding pattern until the stadium situation gets resolved isn’t helping my optimism.
Note: He did not say those words exactly, but that what I believe he said… he just spun it well for public consumption.
Bob Geren... Jackie Moore without the personality.
Obviously not well enough for your consumpton
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Obviously.
And others, as they agreed with me and my take in that thread.
Bob Geren... Jackie Moore without the personality.
They should go after Dunn and Crawford...
Why not?
But there is a very small chance they’ll get anyone who will dramatically change the lineup. They couldn’t even get Scutaro or Beltre.
Dunn wouldn't dramatically change the lineup (unless he's playing left, but then he'd also dramatically change the pitching staff's ability to get guys out)
Crawford, however, would. And they should make a strong effort to get him.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 8:32 AM PDT up reply actions
If the question is: who should they go after...
Then I say Crawford or Dunn. If the question is: who will they realistically get? Then I say no one that great.
by Brett Narloch on Aug 3, 2010 8:36 AM PDT up reply actions
I'd remove the "or Dunn." I like Dunn, but I don't like spending the money there (just keep Cust and get almost the same production)
This really is a fairly crappy FA class, isn’t it?
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 8:39 AM PDT up reply actions
Yup. So instead of overpaying or settling for crap,
use trades instead of the FA market if you feel the need to add a player.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Actually if the contract is 4 years or less I'd love to overpay for Crawford.
Pam liked my old sig better.
Unfortunately it will probably be five or six years
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Crawford is basically the definition of what the A's need
So I’d rather spend money (which they should have) than talent.
Obviously it’s a long shot we get him, but we should. There is no better option.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
You like saying that don't you?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions
Dunn would be done!
He doesn’t want to DH. He still thinks of himself as a player on the field. I have a feeling he would think playing for the A’s would be “slumming.” No—-Crawford, if anybody. Excitement at the plate and in the field. Meanwhile, I still think Carter and, yes, Carson (in spite of his horrendous misplaying of a single into a triple a few days ago) can do the job. Watson——a never was and never will be, although a great story. I like what we have——we were doing pretty good until the injury bug bit us, as usual. I like the idea of a poster above—-especially if we flame out in September. Let’s bring up some boys from Sacramento and see what we have. Meanwhile, I live in hope…..and we are above .500 and only 8 out with 10 to play with Texas. Angels won’t do it this year—-their big guy broke his leg and they made a mistake with Guerrero. So…it’s up to us. Go A’s!
"It's a cookbook!"---The Twilight Zone
Here's what I'd favor
1. Buyout Ellis and Crisp (and Chavez, obviously, unless you can somehow convince him to retire, which would be even better).
2. Non-tender Jackson, Gross, Sweeney and Buck, or three of them, I suppose, since we probably need another body on the roster other than Davis. Doesn’t matter which one to me we keep, but I don’t think we need more than one—there are plenty of like players on the scrap heap that can be purchased if they’re needed. That brings the original estimate down to $38-43MM.
3. Offer Crawford a 5 year, $120MM contract. Front load it, so that he’s getting $30MM in the first year, $25MM in the second year, and an average of just over $20MM in the next three years.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
Keep Jackson
the others are all crap. If he can actually stay healthy (I know…) he’s way better than the other guys.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2010 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Jackson is really just not that great
I certainly don’t think he’s better than a healthy Sweeney, though Sweeney’s health is a valid concern of course.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Like Nico said, I think Sweeney is best as trade bait
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2010 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions
Not if he's injured
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions
we know he can hit, knees or not
He just has to play LF somewhere. He’ll be fine assuming the rehab goes well.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2010 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions
He isn't that great of a hitter. Most of his value is defense....when healthy
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions
Trade Sweeney to the Mariners
They seem to really love great defensive players with inflated WAR.
by Colorado Fan on Aug 3, 2010 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions
Unfortunately they'd trade us back Jose Lopez
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Healthy Jackson and Healthy Sweeney are both adequate, but neither exists any more
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions
I'd lean that way
I just worry about having more glass players. Gross’ only virtue in that list is that he may well be the cheapest, and he doesn’t break all the f^&*ing time.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
If you suck, why is being healthy a virtue? You can always call up someone healthy and sucky from the minors
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions
Why would you non-tender Sweeney, though?
If he’s healthy, he’s at least valuable in trade.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
well, if you WERE going to non-tender three of those four
Jackson is the one you keep. But yeah, agreed about Sweeney being valuable to trade.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2010 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions
I doubt he really has much value in a trade
Not only is he coming off surgery (or surgeries), it’s been three years already. We know what it is, which is a fourth outfielder with no power. Do we really need another mediocre prospect cluttering up the system, which is what he would fetch in return?
If he’s cheap, fine, I guess. Part of the reason I’d like house cleaned is that so Geren isn’t tempted to start players that should be bench players. I want the outfield next year to be Davis, Taylor, and somebody who is not Sweeney, Jackson, Buck, or Gross, and the easiest way to ensure that is for them all to be gone.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
Hopefully
that somebody will be Carter in LF.
by bakerbeachboy on Aug 3, 2010 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Because he isn't healthy, and isn't likely to be as long as he has bad knees
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't think that would get Crawford.
The Yanks, Red Sox, Angels, and probably another undeclared team will be bidding up his contract. They can offer a winning atmosphere… 30,000+ fans everyday… a realistic shot at a title… and more money.
I suspect that Oakland would have to blow him away with an offer… probably with 8-10 years and/or $28 million/yr.
by Brett Narloch on Aug 3, 2010 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Crawford's good, but not THAT good
I suspect that Oakland would have to blow him away with an offer… probably with 8-10 years and/or $28 million/yr.
There is only ONE team that has EVER signed anyone a contract with more than 8 years or a 28MM/per, and thats the Yankees.
Needs moar dingerz.
That's my point. Crawford isn't that good.
But that’s what it would take to get him to Oakland.
The Yanks, Red Sox, and Angels would not have to pay him that much. The A’s would.
by Brett Narloch on Aug 3, 2010 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions
IMO, the Angels are less likely to make the playoffs next year than the A's
They’re coming up light in a lot of places. They’ve got Haren, Weaver, Pineiro, and Santana, but nothing behind that (sorry Kazmir, you’re done). If someone gets hurt in the rotation, they’re in trouble.
Abreu and Rivera are getting old, Scioscia doesn’t like Napoli so he’s probably on his way out this offseason, Callaspo’s a crapshoot. Howie Kendrick and Erick Aybar aren’t really much much better than the Rosales/Kouzmanoff/Pennington crew of 2010.
They’re close, but the A’s win on the depth. Unless the slegnA bring in someone like Crawford or Lee, the A’s are better.
Needs moar dingerz.
I agree that the Angels aren't good in 2010 -- probably worse than us, but 2011
they get Morales and Pineiro back. They also have to be the most likely destination for Crawford, and they can also bring up Bourjos, giving them a Marinereque defensive OF behind four good starting pitchers.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm not willing to write off the Angels...
…a lot can happen to a roster between now and then. Plus, they’re willing and able to spend money AND have a recent winning reputation with which to attract potential FAs.
Bob Geren... Jackie Moore without the personality.
They called him up today, btw.
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are."
– John Wooden
Then their OF defense improved by at least 15 runs/150 G
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions
He was having a good year on offense, too
If it translates to MLB any, than that would be a significant overall upgrade over the likes of Juan Rivera
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are."
– John Wooden
The A's would be stupid to sign Carl Crawford to that kind of money!
We’re talking Carl Friggin Crawford here, not Albert MF Pujols!
What the hell is the world coming to?
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
Carl Friggin Crawford
Is #4 in all of baseball in WAR. (Pujols is #15). Obviously, Pujols has the better career, and I’d rather have him on my team, all else equal.
He also isn’t going to be hurt by the coliseum’s anti-HR tendencies the way most elite players would be, since that isn’t his game.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
If you've got a plan to bring Pujols to Oakland I'm all for it
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
I do have a plan for bringing Pujols to Oakland
It starts with this bottle of whiskey I started drinking at 7 am this morning….
:q
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
This sounds promising. Go on....
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions
and then we move on to Scotch, beer, and then
DMT
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
After all that I really don't care where Pujols plays
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Of course they'd be stupid... but that's probably what it'll take
to get him to a shitty stadium where no one watches and you might not compete for anything.
by Brett Narloch on Aug 3, 2010 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions
It it wouldn't it, isn't worth it.
And there’s absolutely no way I’d ever give any human being an 8-year deal. Even five is pushing it for someone going into their age 29 year.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
If we had Crawford on this team, we'd be neck and neck with the Rangers
How’s that for realistic chance?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I agree, very realistic chance
Pretty much the same actual playoff odds you would have on either AL East team, since only two of them can make the playoffs in any given year, and that division is always a crapshoot.
Needs moar dingerz.
Unfortunately I don't think that's true. I think they also need a real RF, but they have
enough ammunition in the minors — Carter, Taylor, Ross, Mortensen, Fautino, Green — to get one
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions
you are smoking some very strong stuff sir
Unless its the Yankees, no team will offer any player a $100MM+ contract or a $20+MM a year one. The nations recession hit the market last year and will continue on through this one.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
Then it's time to buy low?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions
and you are being impolite
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are."
– John Wooden
Apologies
but no one in baseball makes $28MM a year. Its kind of a blown out number that wont be reached anytime soon.
In fact, Id say the days of the $20MM player are all but over for now.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
I am not arguing with your content
With my limited knowledge in the area I think you might be right. And I’m pretty sure your statement was not meant as derogative as it may have sounded, but it would still be nice not to imply that people can have opposing opinion only because they are on drugs.
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are."
– John Wooden
I impose my opinions on drugs all the time....
Love, affection, positive vibrations….
:_)
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
It should be noted
The vast majority of my posts are written while on some kind of drug.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
It should be noted that the HST-level of drug use I actively participated
in has convinced me that a great number of you are nefarious imps here to torture me with promises of Twinkies and other delightful cream-filled sponge cakes, that YOU NEVER DELIVER.
GIVE ME A TWINKIE, AN! NOW!
sock puppets have never successfully defended castles, except when working with squirrels, which would never happen because squirrels know better than to trust sock puppets, except when their nipples have magical powers. -nm
by Leopold Bloom on Aug 3, 2010 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions
splains sooooo much
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions
You forgot to add the smiley.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
my bad
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 6:17 PM PDT up reply actions
I didn't say that the A's would...
I suggested that that might be what it takes to get Crawford to come to Oakland.
by Brett Narloch on Aug 3, 2010 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions
With the Moneyball movie coming out next year, the A's should go all in
get Dunn AND Crawford, and resign Cust, and you have a lineup as such
2B Cardenas
DH Cust
LF Crawford
1B Dunn
RF Carter
CF Taylor
3B Kouzmanoff
C1 Suzuki
SS Pennington
Bad defense, great offense.
Or go further, and sign Beltre (if he’ll come) and then even more awesome.
*WARNING!* Playing online multiplayer games may change your: Religion, Sexual Orientation, Race and/or Gender for undetermined periods of time.
Yeah... do the Lebron/Wade/Bosh strategy...
Get them all to come to Oakland at a discount and win many titles.
Oh.. wait… the Yanks already do that.
by Brett Narloch on Aug 3, 2010 8:55 AM PDT up reply actions
With that team, I'd put Ellis at 2B
Cardenas can play 3B or “wait for Kouz to leave.”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'm getting worried that Ellis is about done
He’s been so, so bad offensively this year.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 8:59 AM PDT up reply actions
He seems to be getting more and more days off
Maybe Geren has caught on to that too (amazingly)
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2010 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions
Id rather wait for Cardenas to show he can hit AAA pitching.
Right now lets just stick with Ellis+Kouz shall we?
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
I'd think Rosales would play 2B ahead of Cardenas. Adrian is supposedly pretty bad there.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Okay, here's a crazy idea. I'm not sure I even like it, but while we're throwing stuff out there:
What would you say to paying a guy who has had park adjusted wOBA of .371, .360, .312 (injury plagued year), and .368 this year $36M over 4 years? What if he plays pretty good LF defense? What if the team he’s currently on wants to get rid of him and would do so, eat half his contract (the full value is $72M), and wouldn’t require a great prospect in return?
There’s one catch: The A’s would have this guy for his 35-38 seasons, but his 31-34 seasons have not showed any signs of decline outside of a bad injury-filled year.
Any takers?
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 8:56 AM PDT reply actions
Just name the player or I'm not interested in discussing, personally.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
He'd help the A's.
I wouldn’t pay him $9M/year for 4 years, but I wouldn’t shudder at adding him.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Well, I just kinda picked an arbitrary number (half).
I’m sure tossing in a better player or two could get the Cubs to chip in more money.
He does have a full no-trade, but there are ways around it.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Right. They're about to start building around Colvin, Castro, and Soto
The A’s are in a much better spot to win over the next four years, so that might convince Soriano to accept a deal.
I haven’t actually heard anything about this. I just know the Cubs are willing to trade to trade everybody.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions
I'd take him if he can play RF, since we're signing Crawford for LF
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:22 AM PDT up reply actions
Maybe, but he dislikes playing anywhere but LF, sort of like Rickey did
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions
That's an even better option if you can get him, but he'd take a lot more in a trade I think.
I’m looking at Soriano because the Cubs really need to cut payroll, and they’re willing to eat large chunks of contracts.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't think so
Anthopoulous hasn’t been as afraid to ship out vets, and if someone is willing to take a sizeable chunk of Wells’ contract, you do it.
Contending with the Yankees and Red Sox in the division means that every penny has to be spent wisely, so the ~36MM savings or so goes a LONG way.
But they’d have to eat more than half his contract, as he’s owed 87MM, as opposed to 72MM.
Needs moar dingerz.
I'd take him too, but he's basically a 3 WAR player. Unless Toronto's going to pay $10M/year
of his contract, he seems like a worse use of money than Crawford
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:23 AM PDT up reply actions
oh wow, good idea
if we dont pay him anything, id be all for it. he can play 2B and DH as well…
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
Noooo he can't play 2B. No no no
He really was one of the worst defensive 2Bs ever, and that’s when he was young.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions
I presume that was a reply to me
It’s not about “it’s not my money” but “do you think this would end up being bad for the team”? That’s the only reason I care what guys make.
Would $9 mil a year for a guy who might fall off a cliff after a year or two be too much of a risk?
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 8:58 AM PDT up reply actions
No. I've taken the bait.
Sounds good to me.
by Brett Narloch on Aug 3, 2010 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions
Time for me to launch the following for this off-season
Please stop mentioning Dunn, he makes no sense.
1. He’s a shitty defender
2. He’s far from certain to be a better hitter than Cust next year
3. He’s a lock to cost far more than Cust next year (and the years after)
4. He’s quite likely to be less valuable than Barton next year
5. He’s a lock to cost far more than Barton next year (and the years after)
6. He’s not likely to provide any value if he plays in the outfield.
Dunn does not make any sense.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 3, 2010 9:15 AM PDT reply actions 4 recs
All that's missing is "And he's going to fall off a cliff and be brutal"
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions
yeah. I don't see Dunn doing that, but he'd also be $10Mish per year for a slight upgrade at best.
Pam liked my old sig better.
Oh, I agree. I just meant all that's missing for the Giambi comp to be complete, not that Dunn was going to be bad.
I think Dunn is going to get more than $10M
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions
We can add a #7 to nevermoor's list
to replace the “he’s going to fall off a cliff” from the Giambi crusades:
7- He’s already been offered a multi-year deal to play 1B. He will be offered AT LEAST a 2 year deal from DC to play 1B. So, you’re talking 3 year deal to have him DH anywhere.
Needs moar dingerz.
I was right about that one too.
But yes, this is my next crusade.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
So was I! (Also, I was right about Cabrera being terrible)
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions
But he was such a nice guy!
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
I like this post (and I'm a Dunn fan).
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions
Me too. I'd take Dunn if Cust and Carter weren't already there
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions
but you can play Cust in RF!!!!!!!!!!
muahahahahhahahahhahahahhahaha
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions
And there seem to be some hidden health issues or he is simply not aging well
Judging on his steep base-running and defensive decline
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are."
– John Wooden
He's just a big ass lumbering dude, I think.
He hits the crap out of the ball, and that’s basically all he does.
Pam liked my old sig better.
He wasn't always that slow
He is arguably a worse base-runner than Cust at this point, who himself is a bellow average one.
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are."
– John Wooden
This post should be green.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Aug 3, 2010 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions
I hate to be Captain Bringdown,
But I don’t think there is any way in hell that Crawford signs with us. One of the big market teams will outbid us, and to be honest I don’t think he’s worth more then a $15-$20mil per risk. He is awesome though, just not $25mil awesome.
Here is a list of players (depending on price and length of contract) that I have at least a tiny bit of interest in signing,,,,,,,,,,,
1B
Dunn
Glaus
Konerko
DLee
Pena
2B/3B/SS
Wiggy
OHudson
FLopez
Beltre
RF
Werth
SP
J. De La Rosa
Kuroda
I can see De La Rosa coming to us, especially if he keeps his 5 ERA till the end of the season
Is this the real life-
Is this just fantasy-
Caught in a landslide-
No escape from reality-
What better use is there for the $25M?
None of these guys on the list is going to add 4-6 Wins over the current team.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions
training staff and scouting upgrades
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2010 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions
Go on.....who and how?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm like 99.9% certain that player budget and those other budgets don't overlap at all.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Why? They should.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Well, they've said before that there's no overlap between ML payroll and draft picks/IFA signings
I imagine the same is true here.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions
I can see there being a separate budget for those, but at some level -- maybe Wolff
the budgets for each department are set from the overall budget
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions
right
There was an FP a few days ago talking about ways to renovate the ship here. If the options are Crawford for $150M or something ridiculous or save it for next year, I’d rather invest half into next year’s FA class and sink the money into some serious scouting upgrades and training upgrades. Serious as in, the best money can buy.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2010 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions
I'd like to hear more about your ideas on improving scouting and training
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions
this whole FP has it going on
NSJ was on fire. I agree with most of what he said.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2010 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions
would be nice to have the link, huh?
http://www.athleticsnation.com/2010/7/29/1595904/reworking-the-athletics-an
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2010 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions
I get that you are trying to simplify things but this:
A quick review of contract rules before I dive in—there are many, many quirks and oddities in the system, but basically and very generally, a player, from the time he is brought up to the majors, has six full years under team control. After his six years, he is a free agent, and he is free to sign a contract wherever he would like. Before then, however, he has to play for the team that owns the rights to him. For the first three of those six years, he will likely make something close to the major league minimum, which is $400,000. The last three of those six team-controlled years are called arbitration years, where if the player and the team cannot agree to a contract, a neutral panel of professional arbitrators will make a decision.
is not accurate. It could be made easy to understand and correct without much effort. Try this
Players in the Major Leagues earn “service time” for every day they are in the big leagues. Every year that they spend less than 20 days in the minors they get a full year of credit; years that they spent more than 20 days in the minors they get prorated credit or those days that can be added to other partial seasons. To reach free agency a player needs to finish a season with 6 or more years of service time. Since many players don’t start a season in the Majors it is common for many players to play 7 seasons with a team before qualifying for free agency. The time before free agency or during “team control” a player makes significantly less than he would as a free agent. Usually the first three years the team gets to decide what salary they make (the MLB minimum of ~$400k is usually what they decide) and the last three years the player and team decides or it goes before an arbiter. However in a concession to the union, some players get an extra year of arbitration or “Super Two Status” where the players with the top 20% of service time but less than 3 full years get an extra year of arbitration.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 9:17 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Any idea what that Top 20% is going to be this year?
How many days?
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't but the date is suppose to be later than ever before
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions
that is much less clear
and doesn’t give the reader who doesn’t know the system a better understanding.
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
maybe but the first version is inaccurate for probably a majority of players.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions
which is fine if you want to explain less than half of all baseball players
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions
your explaination just expands on one point
it doesn’t change the general rule, which was all that was needed to further the conversation.
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
except the "general rule" applies to like 40% of players
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 4, 2010 9:06 AM PDT up reply actions
It's certainly inaccurate inasmuch as it implies that the arbitrators are "professional"
I mean, they are, but what they’re professional at is lawyering, not valuing baseball players.
[This is apropos of nothing. I just happened to notice it.]
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
Can't AFFORD Talent in their prime?
What a load of crap! Wolff and his cronies are one of the richest ownership groups in Baseball yet continue to practice “Billy Ball”, which as any A’s fan knows no longer works. I’ve watched this team since 1968 and the last 3 years have been horrible – Chavez,Nomar ,Giambi, “Babe” Cust the list goes on. Smorgasboard talent at smorgasboard prices-you get what you pay for. Rebuilding year after rebuilding year I’m sick of it. Leo and Billy must go! Time for a change gang (No, I don’t mean a new Stadium).
By "afford" I think most people mean in terms of their operating budget, not the personal wealth of the shareholders
It’s like saying Apple can afford to pay all their employees twice what they now make because the aggregate wealth of their shareholders is several trillion dollars.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Owners are not and should not be under any obligation to operate in the red
Just because Wolff might have personal wealth or wealth from other businesses does NOT mean he should use all of that when the A’s are not a viable business.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Breathe in, breathe out. Take a beer
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are."
– John Wooden
Um, hey guys I hate to break it to you, but this years FA market is a stinker.
With the holes we have, the only players Id be jumping for joy if we signed are:
Adam Dunn (DH/1B)
Adam LaRoche (DH/1B)
Carl Crawford (LF)
David DeJesus (OF)
Manny Ramirez (DH)
Jayson Werth (OF)
If we cant get any of those players, I’d rather seek offensive upgrades via trade.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
DeJesus has a team option for only $6 million. He's not going anywhere.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions
we are talking about the Royals here ;-)
but yeah, even they aren’t that dumb. Right?
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2010 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions
They were indeed trying to trade him before he got hurt
They are the Royals man, logic and reason stopped existing in KC years ago.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
It makes sense to try to trade him
because you’re not going anywhere. It does NOT make sense to decline a 6MM option on a good player. They can trade him at the deadline and get good value, or draft picks after the 2011 offseason.
Needs moar dingerz.
I think thats what will happen.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
Teams might want to wait to make sure he bounces back from his injury first
But either way, unless DeJesus has some kind of significant recovery issues (in which case the A’s shouldn’t sign him), the Royals will pick up that option.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions
You would be jumping for joy if we signed Adam LaRoche?
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Aug 3, 2010 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Ive liked him, he'd be nice bat off the bench/backup plan to our neverending run of injuries.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
you realize that he makes like 9m? Right?
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions
no
he’s making $6M this year. a fact which is fairly irrelevant given that PL78 is talking about signing him in the offseason.
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 9:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Its not irrelevant. Its a benchmark for what he will sign for this year.
Spending $6m in FA on a bench bat is insane if you are running a small market team. Or hell any team with some financial sanity.
The $9m is what the Giants offered him for two years and he turned down before they signed Huff and his market evaporated.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 4, 2010 9:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Honestly, he's at the bottom of that short list
but at $4MM I’d take him. I 100% believe the market will be at its lowest ebb ever this offseason. Its just a hunch I have, but I dont think any team will pay even Cliff Lee $100MM unless its the Yanks. I think Lee gets 5/90, Crawford 4/70 and Werth 3/45. No one else will get over 30MM in any single deal. These are my predictions…..but ill say the Yanks can will do anything, these are only for the other 29 teams.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
those are really low and not supported by last years data
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 4, 2010 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions
also $4m for a bench bat is still fucking insane.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 4, 2010 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions
one with 0 defensive versatility I might add
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 4, 2010 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions
we are the A's
he wont be a bench bat for long.
and besides Im not about to make a fanpost saying OMGZZZ WE NEED LAROCHE!!!!!!! here like your reaction might imply that I am. Sheesh.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
no its pretty irrelevant
whats relevant is what the market will pay him. i agree that he’s superfluous and that the a’s are better off offering cust arb and keeping barton at first, but the fact that laroche is making $6M in 2010 has very very little to do with how much hell make next year. its a different market, different teams will be interested (or not), and hes an older player coming off a much worse year. $4M seems about right and at that price the a’s should not be interested.
lucky for the giants laroche turned that down btw. ill be sure to give my giants friends shit about that next time they call sabean a genius for signing huff.
the best indicator of the future is past action.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 4, 2010 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Someone should inform the Giants ownership of this fact.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
I like Werth
He’s not young and he’s not Crawford. But his WAR has gone 3.2, 4.8, 5.0, 3.1 (so far). He’s been a good fielder until this year . If you can get Werth for 3-4 years (his age 32-35 years), I take him. He might just sign a little under the radar as he’s not the best OF available since everyone will be looking at Crawford.
Sign Werth and make one savvy trade and I could see the A’s actually scoring enough runs to challenge for playoffs.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Aug 3, 2010 9:37 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I want Werth if its 3-4 years
just not if its the 5-6 when some dumb team bids him up.
Jason Bay got a ridiculous deal even as Matt Holliday’s FA understudy.
Needs moar dingerz.
I want Werth only if they can get Crawford also. I'd rather pay Crawford $25M than Werth
$12M if they’re going to spend the other $13M on the likes of Crisp, Ellis and Sweeney
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions
Werth wont make 20 Mil next year
I guarrantee he’ll be jason bay of last year, ask for 100 mil/5 years, end up taking 70 over 6
Right, so he costs $12M/year.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions
exactly
but you said you’d rather give crawford 25/yr which is what he’ll get from the yanks. werth wont get an offer from any big market premier team close to 20 mil unless the red sox get desperate and that isnt their style
Yes, I think Crawford for $25M is better than Werth for $12M plus Ellis, Crisp, Sweeney and other crap for $13 M
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions
then you leave yourself open to Eric Chavez, version 2
and with the A’s trainers crawfords legs melt in a year and a half
Yes. That's better than spending the same money on short term crap every year.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions
You dont see a bit of Mike Cameron in him?
Cameron was always on Beane’s wish list, and he had a bunch of 4+ WAR years in his mid-30s. Funny to think if a team signed him to a 6 year deal from 04-09 he would have been a worthwhile sign (as opposed to Chavvy).
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
My two cents:
I think what the A’s should is probably what they will do. Instead of trying to draw blood from a stone, and create a good hitter from a market whose only good hitter(s) ain’t coming, they will probably kick the tires on Werth and then exploit where the market is stronger and where they can attract a quality player: Starting pitching.
De La Rosa and Webb are two possibilities, are players who are good and won’t be as expensive as they could be, and who might sign with Oakland. There are others to choose from as well. I’d sign one or two of them for depth.
This could allow the A’s to package Gio or Mazzaro in a trade to acquire one good slugger for the COF. And with Carter and Taylor about ready, probably adding up to one good player, the addition of one good bat may be enough to make the A’s legit.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Aug 3, 2010 9:39 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
This may well happen, but it isn't going to result in a team capable of challenging the Rangers
or an Angel team that’s very likely to be a lot better than the 2010 version.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions
Look at how little it took to get Granderson (grrrrr)
Imagine the trade brings a Granderson (if you prefer it could be Wells or Soriano or Uggla or whoever). Let’s say one of Carter/Taylor succeeds and winds up in the COF. You could have, behind a very good rotation:
2-5: Barton, Cust, Granderson, Carter/Taylor
6-7 Suzuki and Kouzmanoff
along with Pennington and Ellis and whoever else is in the mix.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Where are Carter, Cust and Barton playing in your scenario?
I’m not at all sold on the idea of Carter in the OF when the team doesn’t play him there. I can see trading him for a corner OF. The Granderson deal was a great one for the Yankees, but neither Soriano nor Wells is Granderson. They’re each about a 1 Win worse if all are healthy.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions
I dunno if I'd call the Granderson deal great.
Austin Jackson has been better than Granderson this year and it’s not like Ian Kennedy is horrible.
Pam liked my old sig better.
Ya but Jackson is a BA oriented player. I can't see him being a 4 WAR player
going forward, but Granderson I can see doing that. Kennedy is good, but nowhere near Granderson’s level.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions
Jackson's OBP is .354. Granderson's is .313.
and I would rather have Jackson in CF than Granderson.
Pam liked my old sig better.
Yes, Jackson in 2010 is having a good year, but I'm not that optimistic about him
going forward
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions
The team has been playing him there recently, and they've said he's going to play there for the time being.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions
How's he doing?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions
http://www.youtube.com/user/SacRiverCats#p/u/15/Z6sa8oQ2SD4
Looked good on this play.
by Colorado Fan on Aug 3, 2010 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions
He didn't look too bad. He's no worse than Cust.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Someone, I think flashfire, said he talked to someone who said he looks a lot better in LF than 1B
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions
It was always easier for me, but I think most people would call
1B easier. For whatever reason, I could catch fly balls in LF and CF but never could deal with popups at 1B
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions
not just popups though
throws in the dirt, balls pulled down the line by lefty sluggers, errant throws where you have to come off the bag and try to make a swipe tag, etc.
Pam liked my old sig better.
Scooping and stretching were definitely not my forte
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm not even as gigantic as Barton
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions
First is much, much easier.
I grew up playing the middle infield, moved to the outfield, and always occasionally played first. First base is by far the easiest of all the positions, even with those small difficult things.
This is probably something that differs depending on the person, but I’ve always been great at scooping balls in the dirt (which is unfortunate because now teams put me at first instead of in the outfield where I’m better).
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions
The key is that the needed skill sets are really different
So it’s perfectly understandable for a player to be good at one and bad at the other, either way.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I don't think they're that different for most people
but they sure were for me. For most people the skills of agility, throwing and catching would be similar.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions
See above
Speed and good arm mean much more in outfield. Soft hands more on first base.
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are."
– John Wooden
I guess I have hard hands
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions
Here's where I start wondering, though.
Why is it that guys like Rosales, Scutaro, Omar Infante, etc, can play multiple positions including both IF and OF, but guys like Carter supposedly have so much trouble?
Pam liked my old sig better.
Carter appears to have trouble fielding anywhere
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm not sure I agree
Yes, all the things you have listed bellow are true, but there are also difficulties to playing outfield. I think the main difference is that a shitty first baseman is more easily exposed than a shitty left-fielder, making it easier to notice his shortcomings. At least in a traditional “give him an error” way. Some of the differences between a good and an average outfielder are not that easily noticed.
However, I thing it is mostly depending on the person. I am fast and had a good arm, so I could argue that it is easier for me to play centerfield than first base, whereas someone who is not all that mobile, has a weak arm, but soft hands would find first base much easier to play.
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are."
– John Wooden
I think that really cant be determined by 1 youtube video of one play
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
keith law disagrees with you.
Pam liked my old sig better.
by mikev on Aug 3, 2010 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Or Nick Swisher (gaaaaah)
Wells or Soriano with half the salary eaten would cost much less than Mazzaro. I’m sure the Cubs would do that for Mortensen + relief prospect. They just need salary relief, especially the Cubs.
36MM in salary relief for the Cubs goes a long, long way.
Needs moar dingerz.
We already missed out on one awesome salary dump opportunity with Haren
We should jump on those deals any chance we get (and if Haren nixed a trade to Oakland then boo Danny).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Or Reynolds
They said they wouldn’t discuss Upton and a couple of others
Is this the real life-
Is this just fantasy-
Caught in a landslide-
No escape from reality-
Two guys who could be available due to "out of favor":
Matt Kemp and BJ Upton.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Plus, Ned Colletti is insane.
Unfortunately, we don’t have anyone old enough for him.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
They could probably use Kouzmanoff.
And Braden has the body of a 40 year old
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions
Imagine the pain they're going to go through as an organisation in 2-3 years time
They had the 24th ranked farm system before this years deadline……BEFORE……
Is this the real life-
Is this just fantasy-
Caught in a landslide-
No escape from reality-
Rays need Upton for CF, and Dodgers need Kemp when Manny leaves
Jennings can replace on of Crawford or Upton but not both.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions
They're the Dodgers. I don't think Manny leaves
unless its to the Yankees.
They make other teams take on salary then sign Manny Ramirez for 20MM and give guaranteed money to Jamey Carroll, etc.
Needs moar dingerz.
Well they did give away Carlos Santana and Andy LaRoche to get
other teams to take on salary
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions
He's probably still pissed
about getting skipped for Harden in the 2006 ALCS.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
I'm all for the trade route if the other team assumes a portion of the salary.
I was just looking at other sites, and Soriano does look like a tempting candidate. Warts and all. Jeez, maybe I’m just power delusional.
"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."
I'm starting to wonder if there's some kind of backdoor arrangement
that permits the Yankees to never give up anything useful in a trade.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
You can play this game with any trade
I mean, the Angels got Haren essentially for free. Great. That does not mean that Dan Harens are generally free, it means the Diamondbacks are run by morons.
There are plenty of other veterans-for-prospects trades that end up blowing up in the face of the team trading for the veteran.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
speaking of run bo morons...
didn’t they just pick up Crosby in a trade?
because he offset salary. think of it like a NBA cap trade.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm glad you've come around to my
“no choice but to trade Gio/Mazz for really good hitter” argument.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2010 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions
Mark me down as solidly, 100% AGAINST trading Gio.
Unless we’re talking about some kind of cost controlled borderline superstar.
Pam liked my old sig better.
by mikev on Aug 3, 2010 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
that makes sense
Gio is pretty awesome, but Id trade him for a star hitter, a, erm, Matt Holliday-type. SMH.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
You'd trade him for a rental?
Gio, Ross and Weeks for Fielder?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't think Fautino and Cardenas have much value in trade.
But if Melvin agrees, I’m all for it
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions
shoot, i think Cardenas has more value in trade than actual value
kind of “i heard he was a great prospect!”
You heard that recently?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions
No, a cost controlled guy, definitely.
I’d even take Holliday at his current contract actually. Holliday is exactly the player we needed THIS year in LF.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
that's the thing... Gio's probably going to be a 4+ WAR pitcher this year
The 2nd most valuable starter after Cahill. If he keeps improving, what, 5-6 WAR in 2011?
Those two and a (healthy) Anderson next year… omfg.
Pam liked my old sig better.
He's at 2.3 WAR now. You think he's getting 1.7 WAR in 2 months?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions
holy crap it's August.
OK maybe 3-3.5 WAR or so.
Which is still pretty good for a 24 year old who needs to learn how to not get rattled.
Pam liked my old sig better.
Yeah the best part about the White Sox game was
that he got screwed by his defense, but it didnt get to him and he kept kicking ass no matter what. Good Gio = Good A’s.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
I can see him eventually being a 4 WAR pitcher. To me, he's Zito.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions
I thought Zito was Italian
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions
Would that be Blirish or Irack. Hmm, Probably Blirish.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions
yeah we do not trade pitching unless we get a superstar type thats under control for 3+ years.
I am all for trading literally any (but not all) of our offense though. Zooks, Barton, Carter (if the bounty was right), Sweeney….basically anyone but Pennington unless we get a SS in another deal.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
I say trade Mazzaro for a good slugger, Gio only for an "impact player"
and impact player includes having impact on offense and defense both.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Its okay, you can say it
a “Carl Crawford” type :)
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
but not in a walk year.
I’d probably offer Gio in a deal for Justin Upton, but seeing how stupid Arizona was in the Haren deal I’d probably offer Mazzaro, Davis, and Brown first.
Pam liked my old sig better.
I'd rather blow our budget surplus on Crawford and still have Gio
It’s a really obvious move to at least give our best shot at.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I'm also for keeping Gio.
Health is a skill and so far Gio’s the only pitcher on the staff who’s demonstrated that skill.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Aug 3, 2010 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions
If he doesn't retire
as he’s alluded to, Jeremy Bonderman could also be a decent risk/reward signing. Still just a year removed from surgery and back in the low 90s. Probably about as good as Mazzaro, should be very cheap and worth the gamble if they can trade Mazzaro for a bat.
anderson
cahill
gonzalez
braden
bonderman/de las rosa/webb
outman
ross
mortensen
is enough depth for a solid rotation with the potential to be excellent.
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions
What bat could Mazzaro realistically get?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions
id try to get uggla
like i said above, he’ll make $10M in arb and the Marlins aint gonna pay that.
if they cant extend him i think they trade him, and who is going to give more than a MLB ready starter with mid rotation potential?
other potentially available bats (off the top of my head): rickie weeks, jose bautista, david dejesus, josh willingham.
Why wouldn't the Marlins pay that?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions
bc their payroll has historically been around $40M
and Hanley makes $11M next year. I don’t see them devoting half their payroll to two players and I don’t see them paying $10M to a player in his walk year.
plus josh johnson will make $7.75M and ricky nolasco and cody ross will each make around $5M. somthing has to give.
Yes, but they're getting a new stadium. Their budget should increase.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions
it probably will increase
but the point remains, teams will have to move salary this offseason and the marlins will likely be one of them.
mazzaro doesnt seem like a far fetched price to pay for uggla considering his salary. both mikev and mrod opposed the idea above, so its at least a decent starting point.
No, I can see that deal, if the Marlins like Mazzaro.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions
The other thing with Uggla
is how long we would have him in an A’s uniform….Mazzaro has another 4 years of control while Uggla has ??
And we would absolutely need another solid starter to take his spot in the rotation. And again, Mazzaro hasn’t reached his ceiling yet so I’m hesitant to deal him so early in his pro career.
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
I'm not sure he hasn't reached his ceiling. He's a slightly below average
starter now. How much better is he going to get?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions
He’s improved a lot this year and I don’t think he’s been below average since he joined the rotation. He’s going to get better.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 3, 2010 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions
So you think he's a future #3? You'd feel comfortable if he was the
third best starter on your team?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes, actually, I would and for us he’d be number four. I think that’s awesome.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 3, 2010 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions
I think he's done very well this year
Still some room for improvement for sure but he does have good stuff and he is only 23 right? Too soon to give up on him I say.
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
if v2010 mazzaro were youre 3rd best starter
youre rotation would probably not be very good. his FIP is 4.98. he doesnt get grounders, doesnt strike guys out, doesnt command the zone, and relies too much on two pitches.
he certainly has room to improve, and if he tightens his command or improves his change, he could be a good mid rotation type. but if you’re gonna trade one of the young starters, its clearly mazz.
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
You won’t be getting the 2010 version of Mazzaro in 2011 because he’s improving. I don’t think his FIP will be 4.98 for the whole season this year based on how well he has performed since he joined the rotation.
I agree that it is clearly Mazzaro because obviously Anderson, Cahill and Gonzalez are better.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 3, 2010 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions
But for Mazzaro to be your #3 you have to believe
that he’s got a good shot at being a $4.20 FIP guy
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions
I really do think he can get to somewhere around there.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 3, 2010 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Hopefully he pitches better than last start
that was a disgusting performance
Mazzaro has more than 4 years of control
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions
5 more years of control, actually
but the a’s would also get two high draft picks when uggla leaves, and i would hope would try to sign him to an extension.
That would be the only thing other than Mazz being so young and promising
that worries me…..Uggla for only one year. If an extension could be worked out I’d feel a little less sad about trading Vinny. What a great post this turned out to be! Nice work Dan!
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
Ya but I'd rather have a 4 WAR player for 1 year than a 2 WAR
player for 5 years, if I were going for it that one year, and the 2 WAR player was a pitcher who can get hurt anytime.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Mazzaro only got shut down at the end of the year in 2009 IIRC
SO I’m not sure that statement is fair in regards to Mazzaro going down at anytime with an injury. Okay, I need to step away form this discussion for awhile.
Cheers!
"By the end of the year, I'll have Dallas throwing right-handed'' -Ben Sheets
Not Mazzaro specifically, just any pitcher is an injury risk
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions
When we talk about trading pitchers on this site, the first name is always Mazzaro
I think that’s telling. We don’t value him as highly as our other guys, so why would any other team? He’s just not the type who is going to bring much back unless he takes a major step forward in the next couple of years (ie something beyond incremental development).
The A’s are much better of holding onto him and seeing if he develops into a solid back-of-the-rotation guy. Gio or Cahill — those guys could get you something meaningful.
Why don't you make like a tree, and get out of here.
by thelincolndude on Aug 3, 2010 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Cahill could get back Meyers, Thomas and Cruz
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Don't get the reference here
Why don't you make like a tree, and get out of here.
by thelincolndude on Aug 3, 2010 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Cahill is Hudson, Gio is Zito and Anderson is Mulder
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions
I call him baby-face
Cahill wouldn’t scare anyone if his life depended on it. Huddy would probably beat him up and take his wallet.
Or take him out drinking and get in a fight in Boston?
"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."
I think it has more to do with their pitch repertoires
which, I have to say, have an uncanny resemblance to the prior Big Three.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
Yeah, that's really something.
I do think this incarnation actually has a lot more depth. I mean, you could do worse than Braden and Mazzaro as the 4 and 5 starters (with a couple other guys as acceptable replacements when things go wrong).
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions
what Heredia didn't do it for you?
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 6:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Braden is pretty much the new Lilly
I agree about depth, although the near-unbelievable health of the Big Three in Oakland made depth kind of irrelevant for those teams. I’m not sure they missed a single season’s worth of starts out of 14.5 player-years between 2000 and 2004. I recall Mulder missing about the last quarter of ‘03 and Hudson missing a couple of stints in ’03 and ’04, and that’s about it.
We really didn’t know how good we had it back then, did we.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
Mulder also missed the end of 2000
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 4, 2010 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah
I’m with turkey molest Nico, I’d rather have Werth AND De La Rosa then just Crawford.
I don’t think we should invest time and resources into someone who could albatross us if we succeed in signing them
Is this the real life-
Is this just fantasy-
Caught in a landslide-
No escape from reality-
I think he'll cost half what Crawford does,..........
Maybe not per year, but in total commitment
Is this the real life-
Is this just fantasy-
Caught in a landslide-
No escape from reality-
I don't know what it is about Werth, but my spidey sense thinks he's going to drop off quite a bit.
probably his beard.
Pam liked my old sig better.
The injury history and late blooming?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions
in a huge hitters park
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions
I also like the idea of re-treading Brandon Webb
We might be able to attempt a Ben Sheets II with him.
So my shopping trolley so far has De La Rosa, Webb and Werth in it. We’re going to need a 7 man rotation lolwtfbbq
Is this the real life-
Is this just fantasy-
Caught in a landslide-
No escape from reality-
bad idea
even the d-backs are saying bwebb is coming back as a reliever, and they’ve just traded 2 starters
So you want to repeat the Sheets experience?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes
Over and over and over again.
Not for $10mil, but the whole re-tread/recycle process definitely.
Is this the real life-
Is this just fantasy-
Caught in a landslide-
No escape from reality-
What's the name of your dominatrix?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions
I have a worry that won't go away
Based on recent interviews with Forst and Beane, I’m starting to think it’s going to be more of the same next year with us adding another washed up player. A’s paid $50MM in payroll this year and I think it will be about the same in 2011.
Ya but even with $50M, you can sign someone with the Chavez and Sheets money
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions
I like jd44's numbers better where he jettisons the non-essential arb guys and gets to
$40M before FA acquisitions. Of course getting Crawford still means getting the budget into the $60M-$70M range
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions
I think the answer is obvious
in trying to get Crawford…however, what would it take for Oakland to lure him over say the Yankees / Red Sox / Cubs / Giants or whomever?
"Twenty minutes," says Jack Sr. "Thank god for Billy Beane."
"Any fan that wants us to do that is going to be disappointed because that just isn’t us." - Wolff
"Just play for the name in front of the uniform.." - Dallas Braden
"Oakland is the emotional choice, and could still work, but San Jose really is the best choice." - UncleLeo
I really dont care what goes on..
I just want some real hitters. Get us 2 bats and we are a playoff team.
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
$32 million
if the a’s dont pick up ellis or crisp (they shouldn’t), and offer arb to all their eligibles (including Cust who is arb eligible), they’re payroll will be about $32M.
OK, call it $34M
Suzuki – 3.4
Kouz – 4
Sweeney – 2.2
Cust – 3
Davis – 2
Anderson – 1
Braden – 3
Breslow – 2
Wuertz – 2.8
Buyouts – 4
= 27.4 for 9 players + 16 players @ .4 = $33.8.
So the A’s really have a ton of money to work with – around $30 million dollars. They shouldn’t be blowing $11M on Crisp and Ellis.
We have to pay $400K to all of the guys on the 40-man, not just the 25-man.
So it’d be 27.4 for 9 players + 31 players at 0.4, which is closer to $40MM. Either way, though, still a nice chunk leftover.
That's only sort of true
Most of those 40-man guys are on split contracts, which means they get paid a different amount when they’re in the minors.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions
So the key is to keep everyone in the minors who's not playing on a particular day
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Particular day?
I say option everyone after every game and recall them for the first pitch. There’s your 3:21savings ratio
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are."
– John Wooden
I know you're joking, but this sort of thing can't be done in MLB (must remain in the minors for 10 days unless called up because of an injury)
But it CAN be done in the NHL, and teams often ship certain young players in and out to save on cap space (the cap is calculated partially by money paid in the NHL, so saving a few thousand here and there helps the team a lot)
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes, I was joking
But didn’t know that about NHL. Thanks
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are."
– John Wooden
This is obviously humorous
but I think teams that aggressively used (or abused, depending on your point of view) the option system for their fringe players could save a lot of money. Less on day-to-day salary and more on not paying those $1-2M arbitration awards when they didn’t have to.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
Don't you only save money if you have fewer than 25 major league players
Assuming teams don’t do that, don’t X guys get paid the $400k rate for each game, no matter who is optioned up or down?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Right, hence the thing about arbitration
Base salary that a team pays out per game is normally constant, except that you have to pay guys who are on the DL.
But it’s a lot better to get years 0-3 out of two guys than years 0-6 out of one guy unless the one guy is a lot better than the other.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
Get Werth if you can sign him to something 4 years or less.
No to Crawford if he costs 5+ years and ~20 million per year. Too much of his value is tied to his speed and you’ll be gambling on him maintaining that skill from his age 29-35 seasons.
Splurge on a true franchise player next season. The 2011 potential FA list is looking much better than this year’s.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
I see Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez for 2011. Who else do you see as a franchise player?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions
Gonzo will do.
But plenty of other interesting names/possible reclamation projects as well. Beltran, Sizemore, Reyes….but I know how much you hate reclamation projects ;)
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Aug 3, 2010 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions
I like them if they're cheap like Frank Thomas or Eric Karros but not if they're expensive like Sheets and Crisp
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions
So was Karros, but at least he was cheap. They weren't counting on him.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions
I'd be willing to try and get some mileage out of Beltran.
Always liked him.
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Aug 3, 2010 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions
by mileage you mean DL time right?
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 6:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Well I wouldn't want to pay him a whole lot.
But he could be good for some time in the outfield.
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Aug 3, 2010 6:23 PM PDT up reply actions
I just went to Cot's to check his contract status
and I thought the site had been taken over by Chinese spammers until the rest of the page loaded.
Why is there an ad in Chinese on an American baseball site? I don’t mean this in some ethno-nationalist sense, I just don’t understand the marketing strategy.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
Too much of his value is tied to his speed and you’ll be gambling on him maintaining that skill from his age 29-35 seasons.
If the A’s were willing to hire a real training and medical staff, I’d happily take that gamble.
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Aug 3, 2010 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions
In other words, you're not
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are."
– John Wooden
I can live with almost anything the A's do this offseason
as long as they don’t sign any more injury prone reclamation projects.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
So you're opposed to a new six year deal for Eric Chavez?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions
I laugh
but I actually think if Chavez went to Billy Beane this offseason and asked for a major league contract (single year and cheap, mind you, but major league), Beane would STILL give him one.
I’m going to go barf now.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
For AAA?
"Twenty minutes," says Jack Sr. "Thank god for Billy Beane."
"Any fan that wants us to do that is going to be disappointed because that just isn’t us." - Wolff
"Just play for the name in front of the uniform.." - Dallas Braden
"Oakland is the emotional choice, and could still work, but San Jose really is the best choice." - UncleLeo
by ST on Aug 3, 2010 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions
I'd give him a contract as manager.
But first, I’d offer a hundred-year contract as manager to Rickey Henderson.
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Aug 3, 2010 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Exactly... Nothing for Duke.
Shake his hand, thank him for all he’s done, pat him on the butt, and send him down the road.
Bob Geren... Jackie Moore without the personality.
My Off-Season Plan:
1. Don’t pick up Crisp’s Option
2. Don’t pick up Ellis’s Option
3. Trade Josh Donaldson and Tyson Ross for Dan Uggla
4. Sign Back-Up Catcher (Barajas, Blanco, Redmond, etc.) to Minor League Deal (for depth)
5. Sign Hank Blalock to a Minor League Deal (depth)
6. Sign Joaquin Benoit
7. Trade Clayton Mortensen, Henry Rodriguez, and Adrian Cardenas for Chris Young (ARZ)
8. Sign Koji Uehara as long-man/spot-starter
9. Sign Adam Dunn
10. Non-Tender/Trade Cust
11. Sign Jeff Francis to a Minor League Deal
12. Trade Ryan Sweeney for James McDonald and Evan Meek
Line-Up
1. Cliff Pennington SS
2. Daric Barton 1B
3. Dan Uggla 2B
4. Adam Dunn DH
5. Chris Young CF
6. Kurt Suzuki C
7. Chris Carter LF
8. Kevin Kouzmanoff 3B
9. Michael Taylor RF
Bench: Rosales, Powell, Davis, Wimberley
Rotation
1. Anderson
2. Cahill
3. Gio
4. Braden
5. Mazzaro
(6. Francis)
(7. McDonald)
(8. Uehara-moves from bullpen)
Bullpen
Fautino De Los Santos
Evan Meek
Joaquin Benoit
Koji Uehara
Michael Wuertz
Craig Breslow
Andrew Bailey
Frank Cohen
TeamTICKERmlb.com
Your Effortless Baseball Connection
I like the idea of Chris Young
i don’t know about an OF with Carter, Young and Taylor though. That seems pretty bad.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions
I don’t like the idea of Chris Young at the Coliseum. I feel like .267/.336/.458 would turn to .250/.320/.425 just like that.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 3, 2010 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions
Ya, he is the kind of hitter most hurt by the Coliseum
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions
I think you've VASTLY overrated what Young would do in Oakland
I think a .300 OBP would be a stretch.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions
francis is an interesting option
but he wont be signing a minor league deal. id take a flier for $3-4M though.
also dont think its wise to count on carter and taylor being ready to contribute at the beginning of the year. chances are one of them needs to start the year in the minors, and cust is a very good cheap insurance plan.
I would pick up Crisp's option.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Aug 3, 2010 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions
Hey we just claimed Jeff Larish from the Tigers.....
Some nice ISO for free.
Thanks Tigers
Is this the real life-
Is this just fantasy-
Caught in a landslide-
No escape from reality-
I think it's awesome that his career UZR/150 is +23 at 1B and -42 at 3B.
It sort of gives you some boundaries as to his actual skill level. I wonder how bad he is in RF
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions
Nice pick-up for sure
He has pretty nice minor league numbers, especially in the on-base and power departments, yet he hasn’t really gotten the chance to shine in the majors. He could be a gem of a pick-up
Frank Cohen
TeamTICKERmlb.com
Your Effortless Baseball Connection
They only gave him 188 at bats and then threw him away....wow
Check out his 2007…..
24 y.o @ AA, 87/108 BB/K, .249 ISO
How could they not find a spot to squeeze him into? Dombrowski = FAIL
Is this the real life-
Is this just fantasy-
Caught in a landslide-
No escape from reality-
I really wanna at least start him over
Matts/Gross until Carter or Taylor come up…he could be a very interesting back-up or he could surprise and even make a pretty good starter depending on his defense
Frank Cohen
TeamTICKERmlb.com
Your Effortless Baseball Connection
Dude really knows how to take a walk
and has nice power
Frank Cohen
TeamTICKERmlb.com
Your Effortless Baseball Connection
START HIM IN RIGHT BILLY
Good bye, Matt #1.
Needs moar dingerz.
by Blicks on Aug 3, 2010 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
Maybe he can get a start at manager too, over Matt Geren
Is this the real life-
Is this just fantasy-
Caught in a landslide-
No escape from reality-
Not much on the interwebs on him
But I did find his sickels ranking…
5) Jeff Larish, 1B, Grade C+: Hit .265/.397/.412 for Triple-A Toledo, .216/.344/.446 for the Tigers. Draws walks, has some pop, won’t hit for average.
Source: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/9/1/1010581/detroit-tigers-top-20-pre-season
by eastbayexpat on Aug 3, 2010 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions
I should note
that is the post season review of his Jan 2009 ranking.
by eastbayexpat on Aug 3, 2010 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions
Those OFs are going to be overpaid
Even if by some miracle Crawford or Werth signed with the A’s at a discount, we’re still talking about contracts very, very unlikely to be worth the production in the last couple of years.
How about Beltre? FanGraphs just had an article suggesting he’d be in the 3/45 or, more likely, 3/36 range. What if the A’s offered him one more year, say 4/48? He apparently rejected some 3/24 offers from us and Philly prior to this season, probably because he didn’t want to sign a multiple-year contract coming off that poor season. He’s rebuilt his value now, so maybe there’s a better chance he’d sign with the A’s.
Third base would be solved for years, with a rock-solid player with a good glove and decent bat. Also allows the team to ship Kouz out for an upgrade elsewhere.
Why don't you make like a tree, and get out of here.
Third base would be solved for three years.
If Beltre is a 4 WAR player and Kouzmanoff is a 2.5 WAR guy, you’re adding 1.5 Wins for about an extra $7M/year. I’m OK with that but you still need to solve the LF and RF problems and you now have $7M less to do it with. Crawford is a 4-6 Win upgrade. Where are you getting that in the OF without him?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions
SOLUTION
Trade our entire farm system for Evan Longoria.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'd trade the entire farm and all non-pitchers for Evan Longoria
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions
Anyone find it interesting that Geren's 2011 option hasn't been picked up yet?
At least according to Cots.
They locked him up for 2010 in March ’09, yet are (right now) undecided for ’11? Hmmm
Maybe we’re going free agent manager shopping as well……..
Is this the real life-
Is this just fantasy-
Caught in a landslide-
No escape from reality-
Here's my plan
A rough projection I did of Salaries and WAR has the A’s at $38 million, 46 WAR if Crisp is brought back and Ellis is not. The projection assumes 2.5 WAR from both Taylor and Carter playing everyday in the COF’s, Crisp and Davis in Center and no Sweeney (so either trade or DFA), the same pitching staff, and infield, Cust/Jackson at DH, with a 0 WAR player at 2nd base.
So, essentially, I believe the A’s will be at about 91 wins without any decent 2B. My proposal is to trade Mazzaro (I’ve got him at 2 WAR) , and maybe Sweeney (if they want him) to the Orioles for Brian Roberts, with the O’s kicking in most of his salary in 2013. He’s got a $10 million salary each year from 2011-2013, but has produced an average WAR of over 4 for the past 3 years. Sign another starter to replace Mazzaro as the 5th starter (De La Rosa, Webb, etc.), and this just might be a playoff team. The best part about this idea is that none of Carter, Taylor, Green, Cardenas, Weeks, or Brown are traded, as I still like the potential of all of these guys.
Right now the OF is about 2 WAR total, let's say it gets to 3 by the end of the year
It sounds like you’re assuming about 8 WAR with an OF of Carter, Crisp/Davis and Taylor. I’m not sure that’s realistic. If they can really do that that would be awesome, but how does even that get you to 91 wins? You still need 5 extra wins someplace.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions
It's very possible I'm being too optimistic in certain places.
Crisp, Coco 2.00
Kouzmanoff, Kevin 3.00
Jackson, Conor 0.50
Cust, Jack 2.00
Wuertz, Michael 0.80
Duchscherer, Justin –
Davis, Rajai 0.80
Anderson, Brett 3.50
Gross, Gabe –
Suzuki, Kurt 3.00
Devine, Joey 0.50
Bailey, Andrew 1.80
Breslow, Craig 0.80
Braden, Dallas 3.00
Sweeney, Ryan –
–
Barton, Daric 3.00
Buck, Travis –
Cahill, Trevor 3.50
Outman, Josh 0.50
Rosales, Adam 0.80
Ziegler, Brad 1.00
Blevins, Jerry 0.50
Gonzalez, Gio 3.50
Patterson, Eric –
Meloan, Jonathan –
Pennington, Cliff 3.00
Bowers, Cedrick –
Carson, Matt –
Carter, Chris 2.50
Taylor, Michael 2.50
De Los Santos, Fautino –
Donaldson, Josh 0.50
Figueroa, Pedro –
Kilby, Brad 0.25
Mazzaro, Vince 2.00
Mortensen, Clayton –
–
Powell, Landon –
Rodriguez, Henry 0.25
Ross, Tyson 0.50
Souza, Justin –
Tolleson, Steve –
Watson, Matt –
Wolf, Ross –
Gaudin, Chad –
Giambi, Jason –
Tavares, Willy –
Jackson, Conor –
Miles, Aaron –
TOTAL – OAK – O/D 46.00
Basically everyone plays as well as we hope and Carter and Taylor solve RF and CF
If you can do that and have a $40M payroll, it’s a great plan. You can always pick up salary midseason to fill a hole or three. I’d do that before signing Werth or anyone other than Crawford before the season.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Well
This team has no 2B. I think they should use the money they have/Mazzaro to acquire something there.
You can always get someone like Felipe Lopez or Orlando Hudson for $2M if you want
but Rosales is fine
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, but why not add Roberts
and get 4 extra wins potentially. Especially if you don’t trade Carter, Taylor, Green, Weeks, Cardenas or Brown.
I don't think the O's do that deal
They’ve already got excellent young pitchers and Roberts is one of their few real stars. To get him, they’d probably want someone with the potential to be a 4 WAR guy plus something else. Maybe Weeks, Ross and Brown would do it.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions
It's not a big deal.
The big assumption is getting 5 WAR from Carter and Taylor in the OF
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions
My other point I anticipating harping on repeatedly: Pick up Coco's Option
I don’t understand why everyone wants to jettison Coco.
1. His second year is inexpensive
2. He has produced more value this year than his 2011 salary DESPITE ALL THE INJURIES
3. We do not have a great CF-er to take his place
4. He’s probably the best OF on the team
I just don’t understand this one.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 3, 2010 11:34 AM PDT reply actions 4 recs
I'm for keeping Coco if I can have Crawford too. But I'd rather start budgeting for the stars
and fill in the other guys with the remaining budget.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Assuming we have ~30M that gets us both with room to spare
Coco is such a deal I can’t imagine not taking it even if we have to reach a couple million after signing Crawford. The leveraged wins (based on increasing playoff odds) would demand it.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I'm all for an OF of Crawford, Coco and a 3 WAR RF that we get by trading
some combination of Taylor, Carter, Cardenas, Ross, and/or Mazzaro. That gives you about 9 Wins over this year’s team.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Heck Taylor / Carter should produce some WAR in RF
But expecting them to solve LF and RF seems dumb.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Or at least really wishful
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions
Probably...
But there was the year that Fred Lynn and Jim Rice came up to the BoSox, and they went to the World Series.
Rec'd again.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Aug 3, 2010 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Because it's extremely possible
that what he’s done this year is not repeatable, and he’s (yet another) high injury risk).
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
His WAR is inflated basically because he had 6 XBH in a week in June
He had HALF his XBH in one week, and he’s been absolutely PUTRID since. Coco Crisp really kinda sucks (and I’ve never seen one thing that suggests he’s more than a run or two better than Davis defensively. I still think there’s something very broken about the A’s OF UZR numbers this year. Good OFs rate poorly, bad OFs rate kind of okay. It’s all backwards.).
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions
So you're assuming if he played the full year his rate stats would go way down?
Based on what?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
He's a career .323 wOBA guy
This season it’s .339
That’s hardly out of the blue.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I wouldn't expect his BA or OBP to go down
But I don’t think he’s capable of slugging over .400 over a full season at this point.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Maybe
I’m just saying his offensive production hasn’t been outlandish, and he’s produced significant value in his limited time. No reason to assume if he doubled his PA the next set would be a ton worse.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I unerstand Athletics fans being impatient
we haven’t won a thing in years and are praying for a power hitter
But really, we won’t get any good free agents, even if we pay more than other teams (see Furcal, Beltre).
We all know whats gonna happen, options will be picked up, and the future of the offense will depend on what Barton, Carter, Taylor and Suzuki do in the future.
And Larish
Is this the real life-
Is this just fantasy-
Caught in a landslide-
No escape from reality-
So we're in for perpetual mediocrity?
In that case I’d rather not pick up the options and go with a $40M payroll.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Maybe
If we get Dunn, Werth or Crawford we would have to seriously overpay them, that would put the team in a terrible position for the future.
And as for trades, the one time Bean went really aggressive and got one, the Matt Holliday fiasco begun.
by RememberDurazo on Aug 3, 2010 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions
So you agree with this $40M plan?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions
however
I don’t know why you wouldn’t pick up the options on Coco and Ellis
they’re cheap
by RememberDurazo on Aug 3, 2010 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions
You would, if you can stay under $40 M.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions
BTW I'm picking $40M as the budget because the Marlins got into trouble for
spending too little last year. If I could sacrifice a couple of wins and do it for $25M I would
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions
You know what would be awesome?
If Texas’ new owners can’t afford Hamilton and trade him. Likely? No. Possible? Eh, probably not. But awesome if the A’s could get in on the deal.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
You're just gonna hurt yourself
by dreaming of acquiring guys like Hamilton lol
by RememberDurazo on Aug 3, 2010 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions
This just in
Adam Dunn is officially on the waiver wire. Rotoworld speculates the Giants will make a claim, but one wonders whether or not the A’s should, and see if they can parlay it into an exclusive negotiating window. I’m fairly agnostic on the subject. He’s better than Cust but I agree with the general sentiment that upgrading Cust is a lower priority than upgrading the outfield.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
No
Paying him this season is a waste.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Waste of what?
It’s just money, depends on what could be saved in comparison to competing for him in a thin market.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
True it's just money
But he knows he’d have leverage too.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I should explain my idea more fully
The resultant trade for Dunn would be contingent on an exclusive negotiating window whereby he was inked to an extension. No extension, no deal. Of course, the Nats could always stick us with him and try to resign him in the offseason, but this way, at least they get something if it works.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
its a non issue bc an NL team will claim him first per vignette's post below
but its a very low risk move for the a’s. claim, negotiate, offer arb, collect draft picks.
But I don't think it makes sense to sign Dunn in the first place
The “risk arb for high draft picks” argument makes sense, but I assume the Nats would want that value on the claim. Dunn isn’t going to give us a huge discount on his salary going forward, and he’s not a piece we want on our team unless he’s heavily discounted.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
That part (whether or not we want Dunn for the long term)
is a separate issue I’m trying to avoid; I’m more interested in using Dunn as an example of a methodology. It could be applied to any desirable player this offseason slated to be a FA in ’11 (or even ’12) instead.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
Fair enough
I guess I’m not convinced that you’d get a significant discount because the player’s agent has no incentive to offer one.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I don't think you'd get a discount
i just think you’d get the player. I’m trying to overcome the undesirability of coming to Oakland, not to save money.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
wed get draft picks right?
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions
if he did would 1 year at 10m really be that bad?
especially when we can trade him to the white soxs for edwin jackson mid season?
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Exactly
And, screw Edwin Jackson, trade him to the White Sox for that Sale kid midseason.
Kenny Williams “special” time.
Needs moar dingerz.
The Edwin Jackson thing was snark
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions
it would be more than that
i imagine the a’s would offer $10-12M and dunn would come back at $14-15. which might start to be bad, but the guy is not going to have to settle for arbitration. someone will overpay (im looking at that kenny guy again). he’ll take the years and total dollars over another short team deal.
not if they dont have to give up any talent
they offer him arb at the end of season and they either get a $12M one year DH or they collect the draft picks. paying him isnt the issue, its that the nats would want talent back.
and though theres the risk that he accepts arb and gets a huge award
i think thats slight. hes going to get offered 3 or 4 years, and at this stage in his career, hell take it.
not much though, or low level guys
anybody on the 40 man roster would have to be waived before being traded for Dunn
Pam liked my old sig better.
They could still ask for a lot from the A's
The Nats could ask for Taylor since he’s not on the 40 man. Or Green. The Nats could get a pretty decent package.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Well it has to go through the entire NL before the A's can make a claim...
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Every team in the National League can claim him before the Giants do except for the Padres. Won’t the Braves or Rockies get in there?
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 3, 2010 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions
You mean just to block the Giants?
They might not, just because they take the risk of the Nats just letting him go
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions
If you're a contending team though, you take that risk all day
especially with how tiny that risk actually is, since the Nats most likely won’t let him go without getting trade values back.
And since the Giants are a big wild card contender, you bet at least three of the Cardinals, Reds, Braves, Phillies, Rockies try to claim him.
Needs moar dingerz.
Shoulda signed Holliday.....
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
It would probably have taken an additional $3M/year than what the Cards gave him
St Louis is a much better place to play than Oakland.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't think St. Louis offers him that contract if he didn't hit like .400 for them for 2 months (this assumes the A's kept him the entire season).
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Aug 3, 2010 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions
You mean he could have been had for $17M/year in Oakland?
If so, then yes, they should have done that.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Maybe even less.
The market for Holliday was very tepid if I remember correctly. St. Louis was pretty much bidding against themselves (which makes the contract they gave him seem all the more ridiculous).
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Aug 3, 2010 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions
You think they wouldn't have pursued him at all if he hadn't played there?
I think they’d have still had some interest.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions
They would but not to the degree where they're bidding against themselves and giving him 17 million for 7 years with a full no trade clause.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Aug 3, 2010 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions
This is partly why I like the idea of cutting out the FA market per the above
We don’t do well when we compete for free agents. Not saying we should do it for Dunn, just saying the A’s need to find a new way to skin the proverbial cat where free agents are concerned.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
What do you suggest? My suggestion is to offer the most money to the best player
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Creatively avoid competing on the open market.
By claiming the player and extending them now as a condition of any deal. Or before the deadline (or this offseason), make it a contingency of any trade).
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
The problem is that if you request that condition, you'll be paying a lot more in terms of prospects for that right.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Aug 3, 2010 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions
That might be OK. You have to pay either in money or prospects.
I think we actually have more money than prospects now though.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions
or aggresively pursuing
fairly compensated arb eligible players who’s teams cannot afford them this offseason – uggla, weeks, bautista
You want Bautista for RF in 2011? How about for Ross, Weeks and Fautino?
I don’t think Weeks would be traded before the season. Maybe mid-season if the Brewers are non-contenders. Ditto Uggla and Marlins.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions
I wouldnt give nearly that much for Bautista
and maybe so on Weeks and Uggla. Regardless, if I were the A’s I’d scour the market for that type of player. There will no doubt be some talent available this offseason. See the Ryan Ludwick deal.
This is probably true
It’s ironic, to put it mildly, that the A’s arguably screwed themselves getting him and then screwed themselves NOT getting him.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
If only they'd listened to me
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Speak of the devil...er, Dunn
mlbtraderumors
Adam Dunn Placed On Waivers http://bit.ly/ay1IHz #mlb
6 minutes ago via twitterfeed
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!
GET HIM BILLYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY
GET HIM NOW
Davis-Barton-Cust-Dunn-Kouzmanoff-Suzuki-Ellis-Crisp-Penny = TEXAS WE COMIN 4 YA.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
Stupid Dunn
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Where is Dunn playing in that lineup?
I count two outfielders, five infielders, a catcher, and a DH. So which of those infielders is going to suddenly find himself playing right field?
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Aug 3, 2010 6:11 PM PDT up reply actions
It’s not shocking.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 3, 2010 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions
some people are treating this news as shocking
was wondering why
by RememberDurazo on Aug 3, 2010 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions
who?
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
oh I thought you meant a non-reactionary fanbase of a team
we pretty much dont have one of those.
I wonder if anyone claimed Zambrano? lol
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
because they stuck their fingers in a light socket while putting him on waivers?
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions
How is it that I cannot come up with an adequate pun involving the word "conduct" here?
I got nothing.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
Too much resistance?
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are."
– John Wooden
One doubt I have...
Why would the Nationals put Dunn on waivers right after the deadline?
Isn’t it better to wait for some teams to get out of contention so the claim can go to a team that really needs him and get a better offer?
It's a risk
Sure, the number of teams who MIGHT claim him would go down as the pennant race goes on, but his trade value will likewise go down as well.
Isn’t it too soon for this?
MinorLeagues
Multiple sources report that the White Sox plan on calling up 2010 first-round pick Chris Sale from Triple-A Charlotte as soon as Tuesday
less than a minute ago via web
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 3, 2010 1:22 PM PDT reply actions
how is he doing there? and for how long?
is this a favor to the nats to hurry along the bryce harper negotiations?
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
In 10.1 innings, he has a 2.61 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Per nine innings, he’s averaging 5.2 walks and 16.5 strikeouts.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 3, 2010 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions
He has six walks and 19 strikeouts.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 3, 2010 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions
They basically drafted him with the intention of doing this, so I'm not too surprised.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions
They're just bringing him up for the 'pen this year
they’ll start him next year
"The A's have to be setting some record this year for simultaneously maximizing team quality and player anonymity. I guess that’s sort of their thing though." - Luke in MN
Interesting offseason upcoming for sure
As much as I’d like to see the A’s spring for any of those big name dudes, I doubt any of them would ever sign to don the Green and Gold, and Billy Beane just doesn’t seem like a guy to go after them until they’re just old…
The FairWeather Channel - Sports Comics and Bandwagon Forecast
Did you think he'd go after Ynoa and Chapman?
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2010 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Good news everybody.
Wuertz was scratched from a minor league game on Wednesday, but bounced back quickly on Thursday, throwing mostly fastballs and sliders, although he did mix in three sliders. -Rotoworld
LOL
Over the last four years, the Raiders have 47 touchdown passes and 73 interceptions. That’s three fewer touchdown passes than Tom Brady threw in 2007 alone.
wow
whatever
who cares?
"Not in your wildest alcoholic nightmare would you ever imagine such events unfolding!" Bill King
by Buck Turgidson on Aug 3, 2010 6:43 PM PDT up reply actions
oakclubhouse
Adam Heether was removed from the #Athletics 40-man roster to make room for Larish.
2 minutes ago via web
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 3, 2010 2:47 PM PDT reply actions
I guess
I’ll have to put the “Come, Heether” signs in vault.
The FairWeather Channel - Sports Comics and Bandwagon Forecast
All I know is you can't fight the Heether
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions
unless youre foaming at the mouth
in which case its fair game
by NRC on Aug 3, 2010 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm not sure which story is most tiresome
1. Favre
2. LeBron James
3. Terril Owens
4. Chad Ochocinco Johnson
I can't see, now I have to pee and I can't count to three but I can count to JAGERMEISTER!
sad LB is sad.
Dr. K hates my receivers.
sock puppets have never successfully defended castles, except when working with squirrels, which would never happen because squirrels know better than to trust sock puppets, except when their nipples have magical powers. -nm
by Leopold Bloom on Aug 3, 2010 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't hate them
I just hate hearing about them over and over and Over and OVer and OVER AND OVER AND …
I can't see, now I have to pee and I can't count to three but I can count to JAGERMEISTER!
and doctor, his name is Ochocinco.
sock puppets have never successfully defended castles, except when working with squirrels, which would never happen because squirrels know better than to trust sock puppets, except when their nipples have magical powers. -nm
by Leopold Bloom on Aug 3, 2010 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions
I still think the Niners should have signed Owens.
Give him a shot, at least. Probably could have gotten him for (relatively) cheap, and if he sucks, you have Morgan to use instead.
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Aug 3, 2010 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Someone needs to shoot Favre in the head
It’s the same shit every year
by RememberDurazo on Aug 3, 2010 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm confused.
This thread has 900+ comments, and almost all of them are actually about baseball. How unusual.
by whiteshoes40 on Aug 3, 2010 3:06 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
We can change that if you’d like.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 3, 2010 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions
I’d never lie to Shoes.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 3, 2010 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions
susanslusser
#Athletics vs. #Royals: Crisp cf, Barton 1b, Suzuki c, Cust dh, Kouzmanoff 3b, Ellis 2b, Davis rf, Watson rf, Pennington ss
half a minute ago via Twittelator
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 3, 2010 3:10 PM PDT reply actions
You mistyped. You must have meant "Rosales rf," or perhaps "Larish rf."
There is no one by the name of “Watson” on the A’s. Never heard of the guy.
by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Aug 3, 2010 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions
According to Baseball Reference, Larish has never at any point in his pro career played the outfield
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 3, 2010 6:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Man
Watson is so bad defensively they have to put Raj out there with him in right?
"The A's have to be setting some record this year for simultaneously maximizing team quality and player anonymity. I guess that’s sort of their thing though." - Luke in MN
OT, but I gotta ask...
Why does my screen jump when someone else’s post is added?
I’m reading a post… a post is added by someone else… and my screen jumps to a few posts away. It’s quite annoying.
Bob Geren... Jackie Moore without the personality.
That happens to me sometimes, but most often it does not.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 3, 2010 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Someone just added a post in the thread above you
And just to prove my point, DFA just posted something above me. And it is annoying as hell.
I can't see, now I have to pee and I can't count to three but I can count to JAGERMEISTER!
glad i could help
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Just in case...
The annoying part is the screen jumping, not your comment.
I can't see, now I have to pee and I can't count to three but I can count to JAGERMEISTER!
i know im just kidding
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 3, 2010 6:23 PM PDT up reply actions
It is annoying.
Your browser remembers that you’ve scrolled down, say 4000 pixels. It’s measured from the top of the page. When the page changes and a new post is added, your browser snaps back to where it thinks you were, which is 4000 pixels from the top. Unfortunately, that’s not actually where you were any more.
Different browser, perhaps?
Different browsers may measure scroll position differently. I’m not really sure.
Happens on my Mac
On Firefox. Very annoying.
I've heard Google Chrome works best to block Poppys.
sock puppets have never successfully defended castles, except when working with squirrels, which would never happen because squirrels know better than to trust sock puppets, except when their nipples have magical powers. -nm
by Leopold Bloom on Aug 3, 2010 6:17 PM PDT up reply actions
That makes sense.
Having this knowledge doesn’t lessen the annoyance factor, but it makes sense.
Hey, and somebody added a post below mine while I was typing this and it didn’t jump.
Bob Geren... Jackie Moore without the personality.
It's even more annoying when it happens
just as you’re clicking “post” on a comment, and the screen jumps so that your click lands on someone’s username, sending you to another page. When you come back your comment is gone, your read-unread information is gone, and the reply window starts doing that buggy thing where it remembers past comments you made.
That happens to me a lot in lively gamethreads. When it really gets out of hand I’ll go to the top and uncheck the “auto-refresh” box. That makes the jumping stop, but only because it stops new comments from coming in altogether. You have to go back up and check it long enough to let the next batch in. It’s slower that way, but at least you can keep things under control.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
Oh, dude, I've never had that happen but I can envision it.
Bob Geren... Jackie Moore without the personality.
I really wish that you could save read unread info
that would make me oh so happy.
The team needs good hitters. Whether or not they're power hitters is irrelevent. - lenscrafters and many others.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 4, 2010 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions
That's everyone's #1 feature request,
but I gather it’s a difficult problem that requires major reworking of how such information is stored.
There are soooo many ways in which one might leave the page before one is finished, including buggy little things like the one mentioned here, or just simple bone-headed carelessness clicking a link, or even “Oh shit, I didn’t realize this thread had 600 comments. I need to go to work now and finish reading this later tonight.”
Another one that gets me sometimes is when I’m editing a comment in preview and I hit backspace to delete something, but somehow my click didn’t get my cursor into the edit window so the browser reads it as a “go back to previous page” instead.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
On that last one, there's a Firefox setting that removes the backspace function.
(i know, i know, you don’t want to change)
Type about:config into the URL bar (click through the warning) and search for the line that says “browser.backspace_action”. Double click it and change the value to 2.
Yup.
It would require huge amounts of database overhead, since it would basically have to store a list of all read comments in each thread for each user, and update it every time you hit the z key.
Not workable.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Ellis
The A’s seem to play better with Ellis in the lineup. He’s a steady influence. Solid fielder, turns the DP great. Has lost a little bit of range, and his power numbers are down. However, he’s a grinder at the plate and works the count.
We need him.
I may be dumb, but
I think the A’s lineup should look like this in 2011:
1B: Barton
2B:Ellis (very steady)
SS: Pennington
3B: Kous
C: Suzuki
OF: Carter
OF: Crisp
OF: Jackson
DH: Lance Berkman (As much as I like Cust-I am tired of the Boom and Bust that He brings)
The problem with A’s this year (other than power) has been the injuries. They need to find a way to keep the guys off the DL
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Baseball Nation Recent Stories
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Ask Alex: Can Jose Reyes repeat as NL batting champ?
- U.S. Cellular Field: Home of the Chicago Cubs?
- MLB Fan Cave candidate explains the stories behind his 30 MLB mascot tattoos
- Kate Upton’s new MLB 2K12 ad is really something
- Five tips for Showtime’s second season of ‘The Franchise,’ featuring the Miami Marlins
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
