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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

Option Number Two: Trade Targets

Let's assume this very possible scenario: Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, Adam Dunn, and every other worthwhile A-ticket free agent signs somewhere that gets more than two minutes of coverage per month on ESPN (i.e., not Oakland). So what now?

Now, buying offensive talent is clearly the preferred route here, as we appear to have quite a bit of money sitting around with Eric Chavez and Ben Sheets coming off of the books after this season. The A's are also not really in the best position to give away talent—we're going to need all of the talent we have, and even though we have a great starting rotation, there's not a lot of depth behind it. But if the good free agents go elsewhere and a trade is the only other option to bring offensive weaponry to the East Bay, we should have a backup plan.

Who should we target in a trade, if it comes down to that?

 


Current Series

4 game series vs Rays @ Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum

Tampa Bay Rays
@ Oakland Athletics

Thursday, Aug 19, 2010, 7:05 PM PDT
Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum

Andy Sonnanstine vs Trevor Cahill

Mostly clear. Winds blowing out to right field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 60.

Complete Coverage >

Fri 08/20 7:05 PM PDT
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Regardless of who we target, he should want to be paid in delicious banana pudding

with Nilla wafers.

We can make our free agent dollars stretch further if we first convert it to pudding.

sock puppets have never successfully defended castles, except when working with squirrels, which would never happen because squirrels know better than to trust sock puppets, except when their nipples have magical powers. -nm

by Leopold Bloom on Aug 19, 2010 7:27 AM PDT reply actions  

what is it with you and banana pudding lately?

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!

by cuppingmaster on Aug 19, 2010 7:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

it's delicious, cup!

And quite frankly, any free agent worth his salt is going to know the value of a delicious pudding.

And if he doesn’t, well….maybe Oakland’s not the place for him.

sock puppets have never successfully defended castles, except when working with squirrels, which would never happen because squirrels know better than to trust sock puppets, except when their nipples have magical powers. -nm

by Leopold Bloom on Aug 19, 2010 7:33 AM PDT up reply actions  

Thank you for understanding.

Now if someone could please explain to me why I am unable to sleep, I would be most appreciative.

sock puppets have never successfully defended castles, except when working with squirrels, which would never happen because squirrels know better than to trust sock puppets, except when their nipples have magical powers. -nm

by Leopold Bloom on Aug 19, 2010 7:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

my nutritionist says

you need to improve the ratio of (protein + good fats) / carbs in general, and especially after the game starts (i.e. evening).

Banana pudding is a wonderful thing, of course. But maybe a trade for fish tacos – with salsa and guacamole – would help you win night games without giving up the (fish) farm :-)

Your second place Oakland A's.

by eastcoasta'sfan on Aug 19, 2010 7:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

hmm. I like you.

sock puppets have never successfully defended castles, except when working with squirrels, which would never happen because squirrels know better than to trust sock puppets, except when their nipples have magical powers. -nm

by Leopold Bloom on Aug 19, 2010 8:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

Fish tacos are healthy? That's awesome!

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 19, 2010 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions  

Sole!

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 19, 2010 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

Tartar sauce, fresh salsa, and lime juice.

I think I want Wahoo’s today.

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!

by cuppingmaster on Aug 19, 2010 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yum. I had fish tacos yesterday.

The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09

by pam5981 on Aug 19, 2010 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

back from Tahoe, Pam?

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!

by cuppingmaster on Aug 19, 2010 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yes. At work.

Sigh.

The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09

by pam5981 on Aug 19, 2010 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

me too

I wish I could go to the game again tonight.

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!

by cuppingmaster on Aug 19, 2010 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

So how was Monday?

The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09

by pam5981 on Aug 19, 2010 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

Fun, except for the loss

I ran into several people I used to see back in the day in the bleachers. I’m surprised they’re still there.,

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!

by cuppingmaster on Aug 19, 2010 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

Did you avoid ANers?

The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09

by pam5981 on Aug 19, 2010 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

No one said "I'm going to be there" when I posted it

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!

by cuppingmaster on Aug 19, 2010 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

What?

I thought you were on vacation. That wasn’t a vacation, that was just a long weekend.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Aug 19, 2010 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sun-Wed

The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09

by pam5981 on Aug 19, 2010 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, that's a long weekend.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Aug 19, 2010 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

It was a vacation to me.

Sadly.

The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09

by pam5981 on Aug 19, 2010 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

tapioca pudding is the only true pudding

All others are cheap imposters

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!

by cuppingmaster on Aug 19, 2010 7:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

pft. You probably like sock puppets, too.

sock puppets have never successfully defended castles, except when working with squirrels, which would never happen because squirrels know better than to trust sock puppets, except when their nipples have magical powers. -nm

by Leopold Bloom on Aug 19, 2010 8:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

Shit

Bloom… Help. I actually considered switching sides for a moment. Talk me down!

Choosy Feebas choose Leopold Bloom nipples

Daring. Sensual. Invigorating. Squirrel.
BLOOM. For men.

If the eggs actually hatch I made more than a mistake, I made some scientifically impossible crime.

by DMOAS on Aug 19, 2010 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ar...Arre..are you mmm-my father?

Choosy Feebas choose Leopold Bloom nipples

Daring. Sensual. Invigorating. Squirrel.
BLOOM. For men.

If the eggs actually hatch I made more than a mistake, I made some scientifically impossible crime.

by DMOAS on Aug 19, 2010 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

NOOOOOOOOOOooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!

Choosy Feebas choose Leopold Bloom nipples

Daring. Sensual. Invigorating. Squirrel.
BLOOM. For men.

If the eggs actually hatch I made more than a mistake, I made some scientifically impossible crime.

by DMOAS on Aug 19, 2010 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

If you only knew the POWER of the chocolate side.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Aug 19, 2010 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

If you join up with a bunch of sock puppets,

I will personally sick Stick on you.

She will be chewing on your entrails by morning.

sock puppets have never successfully defended castles, except when working with squirrels, which would never happen because squirrels know better than to trust sock puppets, except when their nipples have magical powers. -nm

by Leopold Bloom on Aug 19, 2010 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

Excuse me Mr "Banana Pudding"

That shit is nasty.

Choosy Feebas choose Leopold Bloom nipples

Daring. Sensual. Invigorating. Squirrel.
BLOOM. For men.

If the eggs actually hatch I made more than a mistake, I made some scientifically impossible crime.

by DMOAS on Aug 19, 2010 6:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hey.....

If you don’t eat yer meat, you can’t have any banana pudding.
How can you have any delicious banana pudding if you don’t eat yer meat?
You! Yes, you behind the dugout in the expensive seats stand still laddie!"

alaska A currently residing in northern Idaho. --- theme for august = remain calm and try to truly enjoy a .500 team.

by ak_A on Aug 19, 2010 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

So what you're saying is you don't want to sign me?

Choosy Feebas choose Leopold Bloom nipples

Daring. Sensual. Invigorating. Squirrel.
BLOOM. For men.

If the eggs actually hatch I made more than a mistake, I made some scientifically impossible crime.

by DMOAS on Aug 19, 2010 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

If the Yankees are still willing to do

(closer + spare part) for Jesus Montero, I think that’s a no brainer.

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!

by cuppingmaster on Aug 19, 2010 7:31 AM PDT reply actions  

Hehe, maybe

But they were willing to part with him for Soria, supposedly. Bailey isn’t as good as he is (close though), so him and AA guy and maybe it still works.

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!

by cuppingmaster on Aug 19, 2010 7:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

Will not happen

  Yank fans would be ticked.

by Arcman on Aug 19, 2010 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah

Yankee fans don’t lose much sleep over trading prospects.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 19, 2010 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yankees fans don't lose much sleep over anything.

If they did, they wouldn’t be Yankees fans.

Reliever Craig Breslow, the Yale graduate dubbed "the smartest man in baseball," said he doesn't have any theories. "Statistical variance?" he suggested. "I don't know at what point you attach statistical significance."

by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Aug 19, 2010 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions  

kawiin

Ojibway for no.

Jack Cust: Nothing but true results…. Sac OPS: .964

by Athletics fan and runner on Aug 19, 2010 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

Trade Targets

Top Targets: Dan Uggla (2B/3B), Nick Swisher, Kelly Johnson (2B), Shin Soo Choo, Nick Markakis, BJ Upton, Matt Kemp

Buy Low: Aaron Hill

Other Team Eats Major Salary: Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Beltran

Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, and Gio Gonzalez are the only untouchables (IMO)

by Colorado Fan on Aug 19, 2010 8:04 AM PDT reply actions  

What is the deal with Choo's national service?

I mean, having our best hitter out of the lineup because he’s serving in the South Korean army would be a refreshing change from our endless series of injuries, but I’d still rather make sure that the guy we trade for can actually play baseball for us.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Aug 19, 2010 8:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

The best path for Choo would be to earn an exemption by helping South Korea win the gold medal at the Asian Games this off-season. The South Koreans would be heavy favorites, because Japan does not use professionals in that tournament.

link

From the tone of that article it doesn’t sound like Choo or Shapiro are too terribly worried about the whole thing.

by Aufheben on Aug 19, 2010 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks -- good article

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Aug 19, 2010 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

Well, an A's player going on the DL

with a gunshot wound would be a new one…

by Kallus on Aug 20, 2010 7:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't think Markakis is worth his contract.

Seth Smith is probably about as good, and could maybe be had for a couple bullpen guys, or a 6th starter like Mortensen/Ross.

by Aufheben on Aug 19, 2010 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

This is precisely why he should be an A's trade target.

By taking the bad dollars off their hands, they minimize the talent they need to give up in return.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 19, 2010 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

I don't like Smith's home/away splits

For his career, he is almost a .400 OPS better player at home than on the road. I have a feeling his numbers won’t translate very well to Oakland / the AL.

by sc00by on Aug 19, 2010 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

[claws air in frustration]

Stop. Stop using home/road splits, people. Every time you use home/road splits, God kills a house cat.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Aug 19, 2010 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions   2 recs

They're not nearly as useful as simply using park adjusted stats.

Players generally perform better at home regardless of whether it’s a hitter’s park.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 19, 2010 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

True. But at the same time, if a player has a HUGE gap between home and away

doesn’t that tell us something? Especially when that park is Coors Field?

But I do take your point about using park adjusted stats. They are probably more accurate.

by sc00by on Aug 19, 2010 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

Adrian Beltre this year

969 OPS away from Fenway
896 OPS at the hitters paradise.

-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.

by PL78 on Aug 20, 2010 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

The problem is that by splitting up the sample, you're introducing a huge assortment of other statistical issues,

all of which cloud the data, possibly even to the point where the data means absolutely nothing. Much better to use park adjustments, which retain the full sample size.

by danmerqury on Aug 19, 2010 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions  

Good point about using park-adjusted stats.

But, just out of curiosity, what other statistical issues would we possibly be introducing by using the “splits.”

by sc00by on Aug 19, 2010 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

Splits are notoriously bad in that it takes a really huge sample to get anything meaningful out of it.

Let’s say a player has racked up 600 plate appearances in his career, and his batting average is .280. At 600 PAs, we can reasonably conclude that his true talent level as far as batting average is somewhere between, say for example, .250 and .310. The bigger the sample, the smaller that window is, so after 1200 PAs of batting .280, we can narrow that window and say his true batting average is more like something between .265 and .295.

But what if we split that 1200 PA figure up to compare home/road or righty/lefty or anything else we’d use splits for? If we split the data and it turns out that he batted .290 at home and .270 on the road (with 600 PAs each), what does that mean? The home split says he batted .290, but the actual talent level is somewhere between .260 and .320. The road split says he batted .270, but the window is .240 to .300.

See what I’m getting at? Those windows overlap so much that they tell us nothing.

by danmerqury on Aug 19, 2010 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks for the reply. I see what you're saying.

So, if we take Seth Smith’s splits, for example, we see that he has accumulated almost 400 PA’s home and away. His BA at home is .319 and away is .249. Now, obviously there is a window for both of those splits and his true talent level may be different. But seeing such a drastic difference, isn’t that at least something to consider? Isn’t it possible that the park adjusted numbers are missing something?

I agree that other state like wOBA are generally a better measurement of a player’s true ability. But it seems like in cases where home/away splits are so drastic, this additional stat (as flawed as it can possibly be) could at least be taken into consideration to give us a better idea of what a player is capable of.

by sc00by on Aug 19, 2010 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

You're right about that one.

Even though the windows are large, a splits difference sufficiently large enough wouldn’t have any overlap between the windows. I don’t know if 400 PAs is a large enough sample where the windows (which are technically called confidence intervals, by the way) don’t overlap. But yes, it’s certainly possible.

That said, even if the windows don’t overlap, all that split tells us is that he is a better hitter in Colorado at home than elsewhere on the road. It doesn’t say how much better, which is really what we’re interested in—we’re already know that he’s better at Colorado, because everybody basically is.

by danmerqury on Aug 19, 2010 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

You park adjust

Which will hit the home part harder than the road park.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Aug 19, 2010 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

Good point.

We know Smith is better in CO than elsewhere, but his splits, unless we have very large sample sizes, won’t really tell us how much better he is. Which really just gets us back to using wOBA to give us a park-adjusted skill level.

Still though, when you compare a guy like Brad Hawpe, who has (with the exception of this year) similar home/away numbers to a guy like Smith who has a drastic difference between his home/away numbers, you got to figure that Smith’s numbers won’t translate well out of CO while Hawpe’s might. It’s further interesting to see both Hawpe and Smith post identical wOBA’s in 2009 while Smith had (relatively) bad road numbers. Which gets back to my point in saying that park-adjusted stats may be missing something and it certainly doesn’t hurt to look at splits when evaluating how a player may play outside of his home park.

by sc00by on Aug 19, 2010 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Righty/lefty splits are useful though, even if there are sample size issues

Even after, say, 200 ABs vs. a lefty one can often tell if a LHB can hit LHP. And if that’s not enough, minor league splits can be used to help decide.

They shouldn’t be the only thing one uses, of course, but L/R splits are far more useful than H/R.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Aug 19, 2010 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

You know, at some point, aren't facts facts?

They mean something.

Reliever Craig Breslow, the Yale graduate dubbed "the smartest man in baseball," said he doesn't have any theories. "Statistical variance?" he suggested. "I don't know at what point you attach statistical significance."

by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Aug 19, 2010 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

I feel like you're trolling here

But in case you aren’t, when you’re trying to use “facts” to project future results, as sc00by was doing above, then sometimes they actually mean ~nothing.

For example, if you look at last night’s game, Coco Crisp went 3/3 with a HR. I think everyone would agree that it would be ridiculous to expect that based on that “fact” that we should expect Coco to hit 1.000 with a bomb every 4th plate appearance…

by rrryanc on Aug 19, 2010 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

I feel like you're being pretty broad in your definition of "trolling."

I don’t think sc00by or anyone else is saying we should expect someone to perform the same way every game as they did in one game. Home/road splits represent a much larger sample size than one game. While they may not project future results with pinpoint accuracy, they are a factual measurement of past results, which means that they are a good piece of supplemental data, not unlike a pitcher’s won-lost record, or RBIs.

Reliever Craig Breslow, the Yale graduate dubbed "the smartest man in baseball," said he doesn't have any theories. "Statistical variance?" he suggested. "I don't know at what point you attach statistical significance."

by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Aug 19, 2010 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

My definition of trolling here is intentionally saying things that are wrong in order to get a response

For example, I’d put

not unlike a pitcher’s won-lost record, or RBIs.
firmly in the trolling category.

And you completely missed the point of my post, though I’m more strongly suspecting it’s intentional now.

The idea is that of course, everyone is going to agree that my sample size is absurd. It’s one game, after all, everyone knows that doesn’t tell you anything. The statistician is (most of the time) going to view home/away splits in a similar manner. They don’t tell you anything. Yes, they’re a larger sample size than one game. No, they’re not a large enough sample size to be statistically relevant for prognosticating a players performance.

by rrryanc on Aug 19, 2010 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Let's stop debating what a troll is.

This can lead to no good.

sock puppets have never successfully defended castles, except when working with squirrels, which would never happen because squirrels know better than to trust sock puppets, except when their nipples have magical powers. -nm

by Leopold Bloom on Aug 19, 2010 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

you're not helping.

No, wait. You are.

sock puppets have never successfully defended castles, except when working with squirrels, which would never happen because squirrels know better than to trust sock puppets, except when their nipples have magical powers. -nm

by Leopold Bloom on Aug 19, 2010 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

```

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Aug 19, 2010 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sorry

I meant Markakis, not Smith. Smith I couldn’t care less about, he seems like yet another mediocre outfielder to add to our stable of mediocre outfielders.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 19, 2010 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

This is why I think this is a good option

if Werth doesn’t want to sign. Although I suspect it might take something like Mazzaro and Taylor -ie not just a salary dump in their minds.

by drink on Aug 19, 2010 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

MLB trade rumors said this back in July

“Nick Markakis remains extremely productive, though the big money in his contract kicks in next season, when he’ll earn $10.25MM. Baltimore would find plenty of interest in the 26-year-old if they were to make him available.”

Of course, Markakis has NOT been extremely productive, as he is at 1.9 wins so far this year according to fangraphs.

by drink on Aug 19, 2010 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think you can throw in Brian Roberts.

He’s a buy low option in my mind.

Also, I wouldn’t call Gio Gonzalez untouchable unless someone wants to part with an established hitter that’s 24 years old or younger. That’s unlikely, but I think it is feasible depending how Gonzalez does throughout 2010.

"You're all like big fat failure turtles." - Edge

by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 19, 2010 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

Roberts

Is he always injured, or is that my imagination? Have the A’s even had to pitch to Brian Roberts in 3 or 4 years?

by Colorado Fan on Aug 19, 2010 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

Roberts played 155 games or more from 2007-2009.

He’s not always injured.

"You're all like big fat failure turtles." - Edge

by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 19, 2010 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

I like the list.

I’m not as big a Markakis fan as others. I do like the buy low option on Aaron Hill. That guy can mash. I guess I’m pretty much down for any one of these guys so long as it doesn’t take one of our three best starters to get em’.

Wow, that last sentence made me remember Pokemon’s “Gotta Catch Em’ All!” slogan.

"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."

by kenntoe on Aug 19, 2010 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

The more I think about it, the more I don't like trading for Aaron Hill.

His 2009 season might have been a one-time thing based on his numbers in all other seasons. If we’re trading for a Blue Jay, make it Jose Bautista; however, Bautista would cost a lot coming off of a career year and he’s a free agent after 2012. If we’re buying low on a second baseman, I’d go with Brian Roberts.

"You're all like big fat failure turtles." - Edge

by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 19, 2010 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

valid concerns RRS.

I just superficially looked at Hill’s stats. Not very consistent thus far, although I still don’t know very much about him. Don’t have time to scour the net looking at other team’s players for baseball. I must say that it was impressive that he hit 36 homers last year in the post roid homer depression.

I was thinking about Bautista too, as he could play a little 3rd and COF for us. I like that, but he’s probably not that good defensively at 3rd if he platoons two-three spots.

Also, Isn’t Roberts like 59 now? What’s his deal?

"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."

by kenntoe on Aug 19, 2010 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Roberts turns 33 in October.

He played 155 games or more from 2007-2009 until this season’s injury. He hit .290/.370/.444 from 2007-2009 and his WAR was 4.7, 4.8 and 3.9 respectively.

"You're all like big fat failure turtles." - Edge

by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 19, 2010 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's just as likely Hill's 2010 is a one-time thing.

His BABIP is a full 80 points below his career BABIP. He’s hitting a lot more fly balls, but he’s K% and BB% are similar and he’s still hitting for some power–very good power for a 2B. I wonder if he’d be willing to play 3B?

Jose Bautista is intriguing, but he’s atrocious just about everywhere in the field, and the year he’s had, the Blue Jays will ask for a bundle.

by NateHST on Aug 19, 2010 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

Huh?

I don’t like Aaron Hill based on the fact that he was only really good in 2009, so let’s trade for Jose Bautista?

Aaron Hill’s 2009 accounts for less than a third of his career WAR. Four and a half months of Bautista’s 2010 accounts for seventy percent of his entire career WAR.

The odds that Bautista is a fluke are orders of magnitude higher than the odds that Aaron Hill is a fluke.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Aug 20, 2010 12:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

What did you think of a 30 year old Raul Ibanez?

I love baseball because it makes fools out of those who think they can predict everything. Even if Bautista’s year is a fluke, he still is going to produce for the next couple of years because he’s always had talent Ive followed Joe Bautista’s career in that I was in a deep fantasy league from 06-08, I was convinced he had breakout potential then, even though he hasnt delivered until now, there’s nothing to show that he wont be an 800-900 OPS guy for the next 5-7 years. Brady Anderson had a heck of a fluke year in 96, but he followed it up in 97+99 with excellent years.

-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.

by PL78 on Aug 20, 2010 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

Johnson should be available.

The Diamondbacks seem to be in rebuild mode despite the horrible return on the Dan Haren trade. If they are interested in Justin Upton even though it’s unlikely, I’d give up Michael Taylor, Vin Mazzaro, Adrian Cardenas, Ian Krol and Corey Brown for Johnson and Upton. For just Johnson, I’d trade Mazzaro and one of either Brown or Cardenas.

"You're all like big fat failure turtles." - Edge

by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 19, 2010 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't know.

I think Mazzaro would get Johnson so that’s why I put him in there. Maybe they’d do it for Krol instead of Mazzaro and take Brown, Weeks or Cardenas. Of course, I’m just guessing here.

"You're all like big fat failure turtles." - Edge

by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 19, 2010 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

If we cant sign a hitter we should sign Ted Lilly

then we can trade a starter comfortably for an Uggla.

The A's are a fairly quiet team, and then there's Ben Sheets. Sheets, as a kid, must have been thrown out of every library in Baton Rouge. ~ Scott Ostler

by Jessse on Aug 19, 2010 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

That's a very intriguing idea

hitters obviously don’t want to sign here. It makes me wonder if we should have been drafting and stockpiling hitting talent all along, and then filling out the rotation with FA’s. Pitchers should be a lot more willing to come to Oakland, if at least for padding their numbers in hopes of a big contract.

by Kallus on Aug 20, 2010 7:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

Matt Kemp.

Pam liked my old sig better.

by mikev on Aug 19, 2010 8:18 AM PDT reply actions  

I'm sure of him

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 19, 2010 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions  

In my perfect world? Rajai Davis, Tyson Ross, and some other lower level prospect

however, Ross’ elbow is cranky, so unless he comes back this year and shows that he’s “healthy” I’d say he’s got little to no trade value.

Pam liked my old sig better.

by mikev on Aug 19, 2010 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

but then he can't live with his parents!

"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes

by Future Ed on Aug 19, 2010 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

OK, Kemp will work

… and while he’s on the field I will wow Rihanna with my boyish charm and take her home in my Buick.

by Sacred#24 on Aug 19, 2010 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

If you want something, you need to give something

The A’s need big time hitting. Basically, if they can’t buy it in the FA market they are hosed. That said, they have two real chips to trade, Cahill and Gio. Both have been healthy. Both have a lot of upside potential. They could trade for the same in hitting, hopefully in the outfield, and hope that a “Big Two” pitching staff plus Braden, Mazzaro and a mystery pitcher works well.

by rovingralph on Aug 19, 2010 8:23 AM PDT reply actions  

Keep Cahill

Trade one of Gio, Mazzaro, or Braden to get the bat. No need to demolish our pitching staff.

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!

by cuppingmaster on Aug 19, 2010 8:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

Gio doesn't come with the magic lucky sauce like Cahill does

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Aug 19, 2010 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

stop it Paul

I prefer my coffee in my mouth, not on my 22" screen.

"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes

by Future Ed on Aug 19, 2010 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

I keep those little packets in my utensil drawer

Gio’s been just as good lately. I just think he’s more prone to control issues.

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!

by cuppingmaster on Aug 19, 2010 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

Get off my sauce, PT.

I just had to write it. ; )

"I thought it was going in," Warriors center Chris Hunter said. "It looked like the invisible man tipped it away at the last second."

by kenntoe on Aug 19, 2010 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

no thought on that one... that would be brett anderson

injuries aside. if he stays healthy he will be the #1 starter even with cahill still being part of the mix

by heartstopper on Aug 19, 2010 8:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

plus his great tweets

Drink what you know, drink regularly rather than in binges, avoid needlessly exotic booze, and leave the table while you can still stand.

by oakAK on Aug 19, 2010 8:46 AM PDT up reply actions  

Won't someone think of the tweets!?

What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.

by winchester5 on Aug 19, 2010 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Here's 10 ideas. I've no idea how feasible any of them are:

1) If the Yankees sign Crawford: Dallas Braden for Brett Gardner or Curtis Granderson

2) Dallas Braden and Kevin Kouzmanoff for Matt Kemp

2) Kevin Kouzmanoff and Michael Taylor for JJ Hardy and Angel Morales

3) Max Stassi, Michael Taylor and Ian Krol for Jose Bautista

4) Michael Taylor and Justin Marks for Luke Scott or David DeJesus

5) Michael Taylor for Carlos Beltran and $10M

6) Coco Crisp and Michael Taylor for Drew Stubbs and Bill Bray

7) Grant Green, Max Stassi, Rashun Dixon, Michael Taylor and Ian Krol for Choo Shin-soo

8) Grant Green, Michael Taylor and Vince Mazzaro for Prince Fielder

9) Graham Godfrey for Carlos Lee and $27M

10) Ryan Sweeney for Andy LaRoche

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 19, 2010 8:40 AM PDT reply actions  

Andy LaRoche is interesting

He was basically Kouzmanoff in 2009, terrible/injured and replaced by Alvarez this year. I’m assuming the point of this would be to non-tender Kouz and save 3 million, hoping for the same mediocre production.

by drink on Aug 19, 2010 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

wow...great user name.

The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09

by pam5981 on Aug 19, 2010 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions  

(I think his brother's user name is "eat")

Choosy Feebas choose Leopold Bloom nipples

Daring. Sensual. Invigorating. Squirrel.
BLOOM. For men.

If the eggs actually hatch I made more than a mistake, I made some scientifically impossible crime.

by DMOAS on Aug 19, 2010 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

he sister *is* Mary

"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes

by Future Ed on Aug 19, 2010 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well that's less fun.

Choosy Feebas choose Leopold Bloom nipples

Daring. Sensual. Invigorating. Squirrel.
BLOOM. For men.

If the eggs actually hatch I made more than a mistake, I made some scientifically impossible crime.

by DMOAS on Aug 19, 2010 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

I bet she was Jewish.

Choosy Feebas choose Leopold Bloom nipples

Daring. Sensual. Invigorating. Squirrel.
BLOOM. For men.

If the eggs actually hatch I made more than a mistake, I made some scientifically impossible crime.

by DMOAS on Aug 19, 2010 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

JJ Hardy??

  Will be non-tendered by twins so why would we trade for him? Pennington is better than Hardy.

by Arcman on Aug 19, 2010 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think the A's need to figure out where

Cardenas, Green, Pennington, and Weeks are going to play in the future.

Assuming no one is traded, Cardenas 2B, Green 3B, Pennington SS, and Weeks CF?

by TBRMKane on Aug 19, 2010 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

I would switch Cardenas and Green

Not that I think Cardenas will be great at either, but I think Green could be a fantastic 2B because of his range.

by drink on Aug 19, 2010 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Cardenas can't play shortstop, can he?

He isn’t all that special at second or third base. It makes me think there really is no chance.

"You're all like big fat failure turtles." - Edge

by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 19, 2010 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

Pennington is too good at SS to be moved to another position

I put Green at 3B because he has more pop and Weeks at CF because of his speed.

Isn’t 2B Cardenas’ original position?

by TBRMKane on Aug 19, 2010 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

Second base is his original position.

That’s what he was listed as when we acquired him from Philadelphia.

"You're all like big fat failure turtles." - Edge

by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 19, 2010 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

I get a feeling that

Cardenas might be included in an offseason trade package

by TBRMKane on Aug 19, 2010 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

I wouldn't mind that.

The only prospects I don’t want to trade are Chris Carter and Grant Green.

"You're all like big fat failure turtles." - Edge

by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 19, 2010 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah

This is what I’m hoping to see by September 2011:

Carter-Crisp-Taylor

Green-Pennington-Weeks-Barton

Suzuki

by TBRMKane on Aug 19, 2010 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

Planning on Carter in LF is a mistake

The likelihood of him being anything less than a butcher out there is low.

by Mattel on Aug 19, 2010 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

DH then?

There is less hope for him at 1B than in LF

by TBRMKane on Aug 19, 2010 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

If things go well

The Taylor would be the LF. We would have Werth or some other pickup in RF.

Carter would be the DH/5th OF

I think we should also be looking outside the org for a 3B as well.

by Mattel on Aug 19, 2010 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

why he isn't worth very much.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2010 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

He was originally a SS out of HS and was moved to 2b by the Phillies during his development path

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2010 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think Green does profile as a slightly better hitter than Cardenas

but I think he would be better at 2B than 3B. And if Cardenas is an average defender at either, why not put Green where he can really use his range?

by drink on Aug 19, 2010 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

Maybe, although Green is older than Cardenas

and he sure as hell hasn’t done what Cardenas has in AA yet.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Aug 19, 2010 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

this

-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.

by PL78 on Aug 20, 2010 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

where have you read that Green has exceptional range?

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2010 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

I remember scouting reports

coming out of college that suggested he had plus range but a questionable arm for SS. I remember one of his coaches, (maybe in college, maybe somewhere else) raving about his range at short.

by drink on Aug 19, 2010 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

i have never seen a plus range scouting report on Green

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2010 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah most of them say average range

but solid hands and a good, accurate arm. His fielding percentage isn’t very good…but it’s still minor league fielding percentage.

by NateHST on Aug 19, 2010 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

I could be wrong

and it’s very typical that I can’t find the comments about his range.

But whenever I’ve seen comments about him moving, it’s always been to 2B, not 3B.

by drink on Aug 19, 2010 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

All I've read has been the opposite.

If he loses any range or can’t control his errors, he’ll probably need to move to 3B.

by NateHST on Aug 19, 2010 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

This is one thing I found from Baseball Beginnings

Of course, this doesn’t really say he can’t play 3rd. It really doesn’t matter to me, as long as one of them can play 2nd and the other 3rd.

Defensively, AVG arm for 3B, AVG range for SS, could play both, but might be best suited as offensive-oriented 2B.

by drink on Aug 19, 2010 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

this

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2010 6:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

No, it's not.

But fielding percentage for minor leaguers is a very poor thing to judge someone’s defense on. It’s really not a good measure of skill in the MLB, either.

by NateHST on Aug 19, 2010 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yup

Players improve their stats just by getting to play on better maintained fields

by Mattel on Aug 19, 2010 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

Moneypenny boasts one of the Best

WAR # on squad. I’d say he has locked up the position.

by hishnik on Aug 20, 2010 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

So would most trade partners

based on what he’s done this year. He’s not going to be perceived as valuable enough to be the centerpiece of any meaningful trade.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 19, 2010 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

remind me why the red sox don't want Crawford?

drew and camerson are gone after 2011

"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes

by Future Ed on Aug 19, 2010 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions  

They probably want him bunches.

Not only does it fill a void, it weakens their primary competition.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 19, 2010 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

Thoughts

1. Antecedent isn’t going to happen.

2. That seems light. And why do they want Kouzmanoff? This is Coletti we’re talking about here— I suspect he’d think that Casey Blake is a better player. Replace him with Davis and add in Steven Parker and maybe you’ve got a deal. And I’d probably do that.

3. This much for a guy with literally one good season in his career, who’s a free agent in 2012? No.

4. Interesting deal, but one with far larger downside than upside given the ages of the players (certainly they are not likely to be guys worthy of getting major extensions).

5. The Mets should be willing to give Carlos Beltran away in return for $10M, forget giving them a one-time top prospect for it (even one who’s had a horrible season).

6. Why would the A’s have any interest at all in either of those two players? Plus, Crisp is apparently good at baseball when he’s healthy, which is more than can be said for anyone else in the deal (yet, at least).

7. This is plausible as strategy and plausible as something the Indians might actually accept. I still can’t shake the feeling that this sort of trade is just recreating a worse version of the 2007 A’s.

8. One-year rentals are not worth this much. I wouldn’t trade all that for a one-year rental of Albert Pujols.

9. There are other corner OF I’d rather pursue. Lee just flat-out isn’t a good hitter anymore. His ROS ZiPS plus defense tells us that he’s now a fringe-of-MLB/bench player type of talent.

10. Intriguing. You’re basically giving up Ryan Sweeney knowing that you’ll be releasing whichever of LaRoche and Kouzmanoff loses the spring training battle. I have a feeling, though, that that’s going to be LaRoche. He’s another Travis Buck type— I don’t think the hype was actually wrong back in the day, he’s just a shell of his former self due to injuries. At least Sweeney hasn’t actually had a terrible season yet.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Aug 19, 2010 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

8. I'd make that trade for Pujols (or any other "rental")

BUT, contingent on signing an extension.

Choosy Feebas choose Leopold Bloom nipples

Daring. Sensual. Invigorating. Squirrel.
BLOOM. For men.

If the eggs actually hatch I made more than a mistake, I made some scientifically impossible crime.

by DMOAS on Aug 19, 2010 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

All your responses make sense. The only one I might argue is that Stubbs isn't that bad

and could be a younger, cheaper, healthier Coco. His hitting sucked in 2010. If he can be 0 BRAA for the next few years, he can be a cheap 3 WAR player. Of course 2.5 is probably more realistic. And Coco is basically a rental.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 19, 2010 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

5. Beltran

The A’s have money to spend. Take Beltran and his salary off the Met’s hands, and throw in a couple of low-level prospects so Mets fans won’t be too pissed off. It’s kind of like a free agent deal.

by richwol1 on Aug 19, 2010 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

Huge injury risk

Dude is made of tissue paper now

by Mattel on Aug 19, 2010 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Lee has a NTC clause that he says he will never waive

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2010 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

That's definitely too much for Choo.

I’d give up Taylor, Krol and maybe one of Dixon and Stassi, but forget about Green. That package you’d offer for Choo should only be offered to guys like Justin Upton and Ryan Zimmerman.

"You're all like big fat failure turtles." - Edge

by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 19, 2010 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Choo is awesome

I can’t see the Indians parting with him though

by Mattel on Aug 19, 2010 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Carlos Santana is the face of the franchise if you ask me.

He’s the 24-year-old young stud that posted the .868 OPS before that terrible injury.

"You're all like big fat failure turtles." - Edge

by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 19, 2010 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah

I remember seeing his injury and everyone around me being utterly disgusted

by TBRMKane on Aug 19, 2010 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

were you wearing pants?

sock puppets have never successfully defended castles, except when working with squirrels, which would never happen because squirrels know better than to trust sock puppets, except when their nipples have magical powers. -nm

by Leopold Bloom on Aug 19, 2010 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

The Indians need to rebuild.

It’s very feasible to see them trading Choo. They have a terrific piece in Carlos Santana, but then what? It doesn’t appear to me that they have much on the pitching or offensive front.

"You're all like big fat failure turtles." - Edge

by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 19, 2010 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

He still has one non-arb year left

It would have to be a Harenesque deal.

If they still suck in 2012 then I could see him being available.

by Mattel on Aug 19, 2010 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think he's arb eligible in 2011 actually

Nonetheless, Fangraphs says he’s the 28th most valuable player in the game (based on trade value- see quote below). He’s ahead of David Price at 29 and Ian Kinsler at 30. In other words, IF he is available, it would take a haul to get him. Maybe not Harenesque, but probably 2 of Green, Carter, Mazzaro, plus something else.

#28 – Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Cleveland

Over the last three years, Choo has posted wOBAs of .402, .389, and .382. He’s been consistently above average at every facet of the game, and yet he flies under the radar because his teammates haven’t performed up to his level. An thumb injury has derailed his 2010 season, but his long-term future is still very bright. He’d rank higher if he wasn’t headed for arbitration with Scott Boras as his agent, making a long term, team friendly deal less likely. Still, the Indians should be able to get three years of reduced rates out of a high-quality player before Boras takes him elsewhere, and every team in baseball would love to have him.

by drink on Aug 19, 2010 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Don't see the Yanks pursuing Crawford

2) Huh?

3) Makes me want to kill puppies.

4) Huh?

5) Minaya might love you if you offered him Taylor.

6) Not understanding why you’re crushing on Bray.

7) Makes me want to kill more puppies.

8) Makes me want to send all those puppy carcasses to your home.

9) I think Godfrey is dead.

10) Hmm.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Aug 19, 2010 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

I love this response.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2010 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

"Honey, are we expecting a package?"

sock puppets have never successfully defended castles, except when working with squirrels, which would never happen because squirrels know better than to trust sock puppets, except when their nipples have magical powers. -nm

by Leopold Bloom on Aug 19, 2010 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

Stassi, Taylor, and Krol for Bautista?

No thanks.

by TBRMKane on Aug 19, 2010 8:45 AM PDT reply actions  

Done!

(sells own blood to Bautista)
(Bautista fails all tests)

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 19, 2010 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

He's a free agent, anyway.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 19, 2010 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

Cot's says he's a FA after 2011. Is that wrong?

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 19, 2010 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

My mistake.

I inferred mistakenly that he would be from three years of arbitration. He must have been a super two.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 19, 2010 9:09 AM PDT up reply actions  

Maybe. He's also played 296 games in the minors since 2005.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 19, 2010 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

If they all turn down the money, we're screwed.

Our only alternative would be to seek salary dumps from other teams. The goal would be to take as much money as possible and give up as little talent as possible. We missed the boat on some useful ones this trading season, but a few more that looks to be out there:

Vernon Wells
Aaron HIll (though he’s actually pretty affordable)
Alfonso Soriano
Aramis Ramirez
Ichiro (though it would never happen)
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Zimmerman (see Ichiro)
Brian Roberts
Nick Markakis
Raul Ibanez
J.D. Drew

Four asides:

I thought about adding Chipper Jones to this list, but if he’s hurt all the time in Atlanta, he’ll never even see the field in Oakland. I also thought about adding Jason Bay, but it’s too scary.

Second, can someone clarify for me whether or not Kendry Morales should be a free agent next year? He doesn’t have the service time, but he did sign a six-year MLB deal when he defected, and that deal runs out after the season.

Third, if Vlad declines his option for next year ($9MM), is he worth a run?

Finally, the Yankees have more expensive re-ups to make next year than I remembered (Jeter, Rivera, Pettitte, Vazquez). It doesn’t matter, though.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 19, 2010 8:50 AM PDT reply actions  

Why would the Red Sox trade their best OF?

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 19, 2010 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions  

In that case Ichiro and Ryan Zimmerman interest me for the right price...

which is basically whatever the other team wants

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 19, 2010 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

Nor Ichiro for that matter.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 19, 2010 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

My guess is that Ichiro will play his entire career in Seattle

He’s an icon up there…kind of like how Landon Powell is in Oakland.

But seriously, folks....

by sirbed on Aug 19, 2010 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure....if they keep sucking, he could demand a trade. Griffey did.

Moyer was also beloved in Seattle, although not as much as Ichiro or Griffey and he had Seahawks season tickets behind my dad.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 19, 2010 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions  

They probably wouldn't

But it’s not inconceivable if they sign Crawford, and if they think Kalish is ready.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 19, 2010 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'd think in that case they would trade Ellsbury

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 19, 2010 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

Well I'll take Ellsbury then

The Runnin’ A’s!

But seriously, folks....

by sirbed on Aug 19, 2010 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

The price would be pretty steep though.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 19, 2010 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions  

They might rather send Ellsbury for free

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 19, 2010 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

And the great thing about Ellsbury is that he comes pre-injured!

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Aug 19, 2010 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

That's true

A broken rib doesn’t sound mysterious and lingery enough.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Aug 19, 2010 9:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

Early onset osteoporosis.

It just won’t be discovered until he gets here.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 19, 2010 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

Sign me up for that, then

Great buy low opportunity. I’m not sure I agree, though, since Drew will be a free agent after next season.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 19, 2010 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

Ellsbury or Drew would be a great addition

I think there’s no chance with Drew. The Sox won’t trade him, and as an FA he will go to the highest bidder – and that won’t be the A’s.

The Sox would not give Ellsbury away cheap, but he is on the trading block. Problem is, the A’s would have to give up something pretty good to get him.

Nava and Kalish may be more realistic. Kalish is definitely an upgrade. Nava maybe – almost certainly with the bat. They aren’t the answer to the offensive woes, but they would likely be better than what the A’s are trotting out now.

Your second place Oakland A's.

by eastcoasta'sfan on Aug 19, 2010 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

I want nothing to do with Ellsbury

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2010 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

Interesting.

Why?

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 19, 2010 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

He is Ryan Sweeney with more stolen bases and a brazillion times more hype

I don’t like paying a hype premium in my trades. Hes not that much of an upgrade over Davis if Davis’ defense returns.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2010 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

He's better than Sweeney

but the more I look at the numbers, I think you’re right. The hype far exceeds the actual production. He not a LOT better than Sweeney, and I’m really sick of Ryan Sweeney.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 19, 2010 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

As am I.

way too much value in his defense which can only be worse after the surgeries.

"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes

by Future Ed on Aug 19, 2010 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

I like Sweeney but I just see Ellsbury as difficult to spell and redundant

Ideally I want good players whose names are easy to spell and don’t make me incorrectly spell things in real life (Holliday)

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2010 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

Huh. I completely agree with this sentiment.

That’s the real reason Holliday never worked for me.

sock puppets have never successfully defended castles, except when working with squirrels, which would never happen because squirrels know better than to trust sock puppets, except when their nipples have magical powers. -nm

by Leopold Bloom on Aug 19, 2010 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

do you know how many misspellings in my real life that has caused? Too many

and i don’t need any help either.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2010 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Happy Hollidays!!!

(I think that’s an oxymoron)

Choosy Feebas choose Leopold Bloom nipples

Daring. Sensual. Invigorating. Squirrel.
BLOOM. For men.

If the eggs actually hatch I made more than a mistake, I made some scientifically impossible crime.

by DMOAS on Aug 19, 2010 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

He also comes with injuries

If we’re going to get an injury-prone CFer, might as well keep Coco

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!

by cuppingmaster on Aug 19, 2010 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

Ellsbury is kind of pointless.

Crisp will be in center and I think he’s better anyway. Get some pop in the corners.

"You're all like big fat failure turtles." - Edge

by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 19, 2010 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

Everyone hates him

-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.

by PL78 on Aug 20, 2010 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions  

Chipper: Hell no

Morales: Too little service time I think, must then be arby eligible.
Vlad: Why the hell not if the other guys don’t work out? It’s clear he can still hit if he doesn’t play in the field
Yankees: exactly — doesn’t matter

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!

by cuppingmaster on Aug 19, 2010 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

Sign me up for that, then.

Great buy low opportunity. I’m not sure I agree, though, since Drew will be a free agent after next season.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 19, 2010 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

Morales is theirs for the long haul, despite the injury

Besides, why would they trade him to a division rival unless they were cleaning us out? No thanks.

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!

by cuppingmaster on Aug 19, 2010 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

Sorry

I meant the above in response to Drew and misplaced it. I agree the only way we’d have a shot at Morales is as a free agent.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 19, 2010 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

Unless he signs a deal that stipulates that he's a FA at the end of the contract.

Some Japanese players do that. It says nothing about that on Cot’s though for Morales.

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 19, 2010 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

That's where I was looking.

I thought that perhaps they didn’t catch it.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 19, 2010 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

You mean they're not omniscient?

I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 19, 2010 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

A player whose contract expires, who does not have 6 years of big-league service time,

becomes an unsigned player subject to the reserve clause rules for players with his level of service time. In Morales’s case, he will have 3 years-plus of service time, and therefore will become arbitration-eligible as a first-year player. I’d expect him to make between $2M and $4M next season.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Aug 19, 2010 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

Got it--thanks.

I must have been confusing what Japanese players have been able to negotiate into their contracts with the actual rules.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 19, 2010 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

Bailey plus one of Gio / Braden / Mazzaro

Should net us something decent. We will have Devine (and maybe H-Rod) for closer duties and Outman to fill out the rotation.

by itsgemme on Aug 19, 2010 9:02 AM PDT reply actions  

Agreed that Gio could net us more.

he’s looking great. Plus with the recent Atleticos ad that he did showing off his acting talent he would go down well in Hollywood

by itsgemme on Aug 19, 2010 9:09 AM PDT up reply actions  

Take on some money

  The A’s should take on money on a allstar that a team needs money relief. There is plenty of players like Beltran that could be had cheaply on thew trade market.

by Arcman on Aug 19, 2010 10:04 AM PDT reply actions  

If we trade a pitcher from our starting rotation

What could we get in return?

Our biggest asset is our pitching. We have 5 stud starters. Starting pitching is pretty much always in demand by most teams. We can always plug in a serviceable 5th starter who gets skipped whenever possible. I think we can afford to give up an SP and make a world series run if we get an all-star bat + a league average bat.

I have no idea what the pitching is worth in the trade market, though I am eyeing the Brew crew as a good team to pick off a young slugger.

by Billy Frijoles on Aug 19, 2010 10:24 AM PDT reply actions  

I have to disagree with that.

The starting 5 right now:

Anderson – injury prone?
Cahill – solid
Gio – solid
Braden – solid, but injury history.
Mazzarro – getting better

The problem is after those 5 there is a significant drop off in talent.

Pam liked my old sig better.

by mikev on Aug 19, 2010 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

How many teams have 5 good starters?

I don’t really get the lack of depth argument that everyone seems to take up. Should we really expect to have 8 capable major league starters?

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin

by Helloooo 1st on Aug 19, 2010 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions  

Shouldn't say everyone

Meant a lot of people.

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin

by Helloooo 1st on Aug 19, 2010 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions