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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

LETS TRADE GIO.....

The man has got some TALENT. NASTY CURVEBALL 96 fastball, and a nice slider. Were wasting his arm here guys. He has alot of value. He should have won his 11th today but.......thanks to another pitcher he messed it up in 10 pitches, and gio pitched 7 solid innings.  We have a catcher (suzuki) that calls nothing but fastballs. We have to trade him before he throws out his arm.  We have no batters, we can pick up some nice batters! think about it. Are you with me boys!

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If the right trade partner comes along, I'm not opposed

But we can’t say we’re wasting his arm.
He’s been a very healthy pitcher and he will get even better.

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Aug 18, 2010 8:26 PM PDT reply actions  

So if I understand your argument here...

Gio is great, our relievers suck, and our catcher can’t call a game, so we should get rid of Gio?

I guess I don’t really agree with the premises or the logic.

by OkayJay81 on Aug 18, 2010 8:31 PM PDT reply actions  

Trade Gio? Hell no.

Trade Cahill? No. Braden? Nope. Anderson? Not. Mazzarro? I don’t think so.

These five pitchers are on the verge of leading the next A’s dynasty.

by HCF from Oakball on Aug 18, 2010 8:45 PM PDT reply actions  

i would trade braden

but i doubt his value is very high, perfecto notwithstanding. too many injuries, and nerve injuries are no day on the beach.

"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball

by flipgatey3 on Aug 20, 2010 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

no

I can't see, now I have to pee, and I can't count to three, but I can count to JÄGERMEISTER!

by doctorK on Aug 18, 2010 8:53 PM PDT reply actions   2 recs

You guys are likely going have to be willing to give up one of them if you want to ever win something meaningful

We can’t keep sucking on offense. Our offense is pretty terrible most of the time. If trading one of them means that we can get a good young hitter, then we should do it. I wouldn’t trade Anderson, Cahill, or Gio, but I would be willing to trade Mazzaro or Braden. That’s why we should package Braden or Mazzaro for Kemp, then sign a guy like Blanton, and then go and sign Werth. BAM! All of a sudden we are right up there with Texas.

by duballers23 on Aug 18, 2010 9:06 PM PDT reply actions  

You lost me with "sign a guy like Blanton."

Though spending 10.5M on a number 5 starter is tempting…

by Sacred#24 on Aug 20, 2010 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

No offense but Blanton

is not going to help anyone if winning is the goal.

by Trainman on Aug 20, 2010 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

no thanks to werth

don’t need another COF with carter/taylor on the way up.

his power is a function of that stadium and is waayyyyyy down this season. hits more “just barely out” home runs than almost anyone…how does that match our stadium?

"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball

by flipgatey3 on Aug 20, 2010 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

Rec'd for awesomeness

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Aug 18, 2010 10:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Was just thinking that.

Reliever Craig Breslow, the Yale graduate dubbed "the smartest man in baseball," said he doesn't have any theories. "Statistical variance?" he suggested. "I don't know at what point you attach statistical significance."

by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Aug 19, 2010 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

For Narnia HIZZAH HIZZAH!!!

"-i never said half the things i said." --Yogi Berra

by Ovale Fan on Aug 18, 2010 9:34 PM PDT reply actions  

Nobody should ever be untradeable

But Gio is one of the three best players (conservatively speaking) on this baseball team. If you’re going to trade him, you better get something pretty f%^&ing awesome for him.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 18, 2010 9:40 PM PDT reply actions  

I agree

If you consider Gio a young top of the rotation starter, then it’s safe to say the return should be a young middle of the order hitter like a Colby Ramus, Joey Votto, or Buster Posey. Since teams with those kinds of hitters would never be willing to trade them, then this talk of moving Gio is ridiculous and would never happen. I’m not sure why people keep bringing it up.

by Mr. Clean Sweep on Aug 18, 2010 9:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

pretty unique case

reds tried to sell high on a guy who might relapse at any time. technically he did. also is injury prone, but i’d sure love him in this lineup.

"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball

by flipgatey3 on Aug 20, 2010 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'd trade Gio Gonzalez for a young, established hitter.

The list is really small. I can’t think of a whole lot off the top of my head that sound reasonable. Obviously Buster Posey and Jason Heyward aren’t happening. I’m thinking Justin Upton since the Diamondbacks seem to be in rebuild mode and Ryan Zimmerman. Again, the list is very small. I am certainly in no hurry to trade him.

The Ultimate Opportunist

by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 18, 2010 9:41 PM PDT reply actions  

I think it would be tough to get any of those guys for Gio

what about a package centered around Jay Bruce from the Reds?

by OkayJay81 on Aug 18, 2010 9:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

I could see it

Although given Bruce’s recent struggles, we should get a nice complimentary out of them too

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Aug 18, 2010 10:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

No

Jay Bruce isn’t that good.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Aug 18, 2010 10:42 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

agreed

might as well send braden to milwaukee for gamel

by DubElXero on Aug 18, 2010 10:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

kemp's value is higher than gamel

braden is a 3rd starter at best. ted lilly redux

by DubElXero on Aug 18, 2010 10:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

giving up taylor would be like giving up ethier for milton bradley

no thank you, i’d like a kemp deal if we did something like braden/sweeney/donaldson don’t forget the dodgers are sick of russell martin and would like to get rid of him

by DubElXero on Aug 18, 2010 11:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Donaldson hit better than taylor and is worth 20 position runs more than he is.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Aug 18, 2010 11:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

Is this conclusion dependent on

Donaldson sticking at catcher? I’ve heard some people question whether he will.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Aug 19, 2010 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

Ok well then he would only be 10 runs better positionally

that being said he made a lot of strides defensively in the last couple years.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2010 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'd love to see Donaldson stick as catcher.

I honestly don’t know the chance of that, which is why I asked.

Also, if I’m remember right, WAR does not include catcher defense, right?

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Aug 19, 2010 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

It does now.

It was a weirdly quiet announcement for such an important thing, but Fangraphs added catcher defense to WAR. I think it only looks at basestealing, though.

by danmerqury on Aug 19, 2010 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

thanks, good to know

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Aug 19, 2010 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

we already have a catcher. suzuki.

if they move donaldson to 3B then i’d love to keep him. but right now donaldson is behind suzuki and ahead of stassi

by DubElXero on Aug 19, 2010 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

suzuki = not as good as everyone thinks

poor OB skills, and not really that awesome on defense.

"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball

by flipgatey3 on Aug 20, 2010 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

would you rather have a washed up guy like kendall?

i mean the suzuki extension makes it clear stassi is the goal

by DubElXero on Aug 20, 2010 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

not sure where kendall came from

but to answer your question, no, i would rather have kurt, even though his ops is under .700.

agreed on stassi

"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball

by flipgatey3 on Aug 24, 2010 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

giving up taylor would be like giving up ethier for milton bradley

What? You do realize that Kemp is only a year older than Taylor? This is already his 5th season in the majors, and he is much better at this point? Kemp would automatically be the biggest threat in our lineup, and Taylor would is still struggling in AAA. Kemp hit .297, with 26 hrs and 101 rbi’s last year at age 24. Not to mention he stole 34 bases and had a .842 ops. I would make that deal in a heartbeat.

by duballers23 on Aug 18, 2010 11:30 PM PDT up reply actions   2 recs

yes, i do realise that

however kemp is having a down year, finds his way in the media for off field crap, and has had his service time running for 5 years

by DubElXero on Aug 19, 2010 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

Service time doesn't matter when a team needs a good verteran bat.

In terms of having a down year, I really don’t think that’s a big deal. He’s got better numbers than everybody else on our team in terms of driving in runs, and he’s only 25, so he’ll get better. I don’t think his off field issues are going to be that big of a problem.

by duballers23 on Aug 19, 2010 4:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

Service time always matters when you're talking about a small market team

Once team control runs out the A’s can’t afford to retain players, especially high-end guys like Kemp. The less service time he has less the less valuable he is to the A’s.

by OkayJay81 on Aug 19, 2010 7:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

No, we couldn't.

They’d never take that little in return for him. If Ned Colletti was drunk that day, and willing to take a #4 starter, a fourth outfielder, and a B prospect with no position, it would be best to get it done before he sobers up.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 19, 2010 6:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

Donaldson would actually allow them to get rid of Martin, whom they seem to hate though.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2010 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

Not sure he'll be ready for 2011.

He’s fallen off a bit of a cliff recently.. Hitting .171/.284/.475 since the minor-league ASB (61 ABs). Could be related to injury, I suppose.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 19, 2010 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

they're getting rid of ramirez

so sweeney would be they’re starting LF. and they only have 2 starters under team control next year so thats where a dirt cheap braden fits…

by DubElXero on Aug 19, 2010 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

thats not great but its a 760 OPS from a AAA catcher

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2010 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

What makes you sure?

He was one of the best prospects in the minors a couple years ago, and while he has struggled with his transition to the majors he is still only 23. He’s starting to look like a very good defender in RF and while he will probably never be a high average guy he’s decent at taking walks and up until this year has flashed pretty darned good power. I don’t know why his power has dipped so far this year but it could have something to do with breaking his wrist last season and in a short piece on fangraphs they suggested there might be reason to hope his power is starting to return.

I don’t think Bruce a slam dunk but he has some upside and he’s someone I could actually see the other team considering trading.

by OkayJay81 on Aug 18, 2010 10:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

broken wrists tend to sap power

but his ROS ZIPs has him below league average as a bat. Yeah it looks like he might be able to field, but his BABIP is high this year to offset gains in power that the wrist will give you when it heals.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Aug 18, 2010 11:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

His BABIP is high at .321 but not unreasonably so

He had a terrible BABIP last year and he’s young enough that I don’t think you can confidently say what type of BABIP to expect from him going forward. His ROS ZIPs doesn’t look that pretty but that assumes that his power will continue to be well below what it’s been every single year of his career at every stop prior to 2010.

I just think there is enough positive indicators to suggest that Bruce is still getting better rather than regressing as ZIPs seems to think.

by OkayJay81 on Aug 18, 2010 11:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

i'm not a bruce fan

but if braden was the centerpiece (and as DFA says below, the reds have a surplus of SPs anyway), i say go for it. i think the a’s need to sell high on braden. those foot issues make me leery.

"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball

by flipgatey3 on Aug 20, 2010 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm also not that impressed by Bruce.

I definitely wouldn’t trade Gio for him.

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Aug 18, 2010 11:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

Agreed.

What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.

by winchester5 on Aug 19, 2010 12:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

its unlikely thed want him with their rotation too

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2010 3:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

with Dusty Baker at the helm

you can never have too many pitchers.

Needs moar dingerz.

by Blicks on Aug 19, 2010 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

Apparently he's had some kind of wrist injury

On the one hand, that probably means he’s better than his numbers make him look like. On the other hand, if he’s traded to the Oakland A’s, pretty soon there won’t be any “other hand” to worry about anyway.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Aug 19, 2010 1:16 AM PDT up reply actions  

Buster Posey and Jason Heyward may not be happening

but that’s the appropriate return to expect, even if you have to give a little more (such as Bailey).

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 18, 2010 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

Seriously

I think Posey or Heyward are overvaluing Gio. And saying “a little more” being Bailey, you’re undervaluing Bailey.

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Aug 18, 2010 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

Bailey is a relief arm that could break at any time.

He’s much easier to replace than Gio or a position player. If he has as much perceived value as you’re intimating, it’s all the more reason to include him in a deal.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 19, 2010 6:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

I agree

I mean to say that if Bailey comes back and pitches well the next month, his value to other teams is much higher than what it is to Oakland.
Beane is one of a select few GMs who seems to actually know the correct value a RP provides to a team, and when is the right time to pull the trigger and get some value for those guys.

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Aug 19, 2010 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions  

this is true

but again, it’s not like the giants would ever in a million years deal posey. whether or not he is the correct return for gio/bailey notwithstanding, it just wouldn’t happen.

"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball

by flipgatey3 on Aug 20, 2010 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yes, yes, yes

This. Little to no other guys we could possibly net and feel good about other than those 2.

5 more years of Upton, first 3 of which are generally player friendly, or a very good and reliable Zimmerman for 3 years at or just below market value.
There are very few, if any, other suitable trade partners…

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Aug 18, 2010 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Um.

What?

No. The A’s are not getting Ryan Zimmermann or mother*^%ing Justin Upton for Gio Gonzalez. I like the guy as much as the next man, but those guys are like 6-WAR-a-season superstars. (Upton not yet, but he probably will be by 2012 or so.) Gio is, like, a good #3 starter with weak-#1/strong-#2 upside.

This is crazy talk. The only reason why the A’s might not do those trades is that Billy Beane might literally die of shock at hearing the opposing team make the offer.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Aug 19, 2010 1:23 AM PDT up reply actions   2 recs

I didn't say either would happen

It’s not happening ever.
I mean to say that there are few deals that we, as fans, would approve of if a deal were to happen where Gio was traded for a legit bat. Now I know my initial excitement over any prospect of getting those 2 guys made what I was saying sound reasonable.

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Aug 19, 2010 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

can we please stop talking about Zimmerman being available for trade

It’s about as absurd, if not more, as trading for Albert Pujols (when you factor in contract status)

Zimmerman is ridiculously good. As in, top 5-10 position player in the NL and easily top 20 in MLB, period. And, he’s signed to a ridiculously team friendly deal.

If he played for an ESPN darling team, he’d be an MVP candidate.

Needs moar dingerz.

by Blicks on Aug 19, 2010 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

this is in reply to RRS, not strana.

since the long thread bumped it down

Needs moar dingerz.

by Blicks on Aug 19, 2010 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not saying Zimmerman is up for trade.

I’m saying it would take somebody like him to make me trade Gio Gonzalez.

"You're all like big fat failure turtles." - Edge

by Rated-R Superstar on Aug 19, 2010 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

Zimmerman would be awesome

He makes 9M, 12M, and 14M the next three seasons which isn’t as bad as it sounds considering Kouz is making 3.1M this year, his first year of arbitration. Maybe a package of Mazzaro, Taylor, and Stassi gets it done?

by Sacred#24 on Aug 20, 2010 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

Why would the Nats trade one of the best players in baseball

for a somewhat-promising young starter, a 25-year-old RF who’s hitting badly in AAA, and a 19-year-old C who’s hitting .238/.313/.406 and K’ing in nearly 1/3 of his PAs in A ball?

Maybe a package of Anderson, Pennington, and Bailey gets it done.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Aug 20, 2010 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

more likely

green replaces pennington for them to say yes. they already have ian desmond, i’m sure they’d rather have an up and comer without the clock started.

"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball

by flipgatey3 on Aug 20, 2010 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

No matter what the A's are going to have to pick up at least two bats in the offseason.

The first one should be on the open market. My preference is overpaying Adam Dunn because he’ll immediately increase the A’s home run production by 50%, but there are a few choices like Crawford (not likely), Beltre (can’t hit with a long term deal), Ordonez (if Detroit lets him go), or Werth, You’d have to overpay for any of them, but I’d rather the A’s overpay for Dunn and give him 12M to 15M then give 10M Sheets.

The second bat would have to come through trade and with a pitcher. It would probably be best to start by dangling Outman, but to get something good really you’d have to give up Braden or Mazz. I actually like the Yankees as trading partners because they have an lot of surplus major league bats, but will be in need of pitching. In a perfect world maybe you could swing an Outman for Swisher, but it may in up taking something like Mazz for Swisher and 2 prospects.

by Mr. Clean Sweep on Aug 18, 2010 9:48 PM PDT reply actions  

I favor any moves that involves dollars rather than talent

The A’s have the former, but don’t have enough depth to sacrifice the latter.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 18, 2010 9:51 PM PDT up reply actions   5 recs

I think the A's will have to do both to get this team into contention.

Since the A’s can’t afford to overpay more then one bat a trade is going to be necessary.

One interesting name I haven’t’ herd much of is Outman. The guy was dominant before his arm broke, and if he comes back and pitches well in September, then you might be able to use him to pry a bat away from another team. Mid 90 throwing leftys don’t grow on many trees and as such have value.

by Mr. Clean Sweep on Aug 18, 2010 10:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think you're severely over-rating Outman

He threw 67 innings last year with a 3.48 ERA and a 53/25 K/BB ratio, good result but not even close to dominant. Now he’s coming of a serious arm injury. He’s going to have hardly any value on the trade market. Trading him this off-season would be selling extremely low on him, not a good idea.

by OkayJay81 on Aug 18, 2010 10:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

this

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Aug 18, 2010 10:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

and say what you want about the yankees but...

they hold onto valuable players. thats why their one of the few franchises that can use the word “cornerstone” accurately

by DubElXero on Aug 18, 2010 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

This should be rec'ed a hundred times by now.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Aug 18, 2010 10:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't even see one :-).

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 19, 2010 6:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

Which is apparently a function of how browser refreshes work.

Never mind. :-).

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 19, 2010 6:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

yeah I know it will fool you every once in a while

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Aug 19, 2010 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

dangling Outman

His surgically repaired elbow says hello.
He’ll net you a bag of peanuts on the open market right now

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Aug 18, 2010 10:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

He's a hard throwing left hander.

Never underestimate what a hard throwing left hander could net you. They are like kat-nip to some GMs.

Now I’m not saying he could net you Joey Votto, but he could bring back a veteran power bat from a team looking to add pitching and control costs.

by Mr. Clean Sweep on Aug 18, 2010 10:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

He just came off Tomy John surgery

No way he’ll net you much at all right now. You’d have to wait on him.

by duballers23 on Aug 18, 2010 10:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

No he can't

No.
No no no no no.
A hard throwing lefty nets you something when he can prove he’s healthy again, and can pitch in the majors.
Seriously, I’m not trying to be rude, but you’re delusional if you think Outman nets you anything right now.

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Aug 18, 2010 10:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

This is a horribly inaccurate view of the trade market.

What we’re asking is for people to stop pretending that ipse dixit counts as a "source." When you make a claim about baseball, you should be willing to put some reasonable amount of effort into explaining why it’s correct if someone asks you to. That’s basic respect for the other poster. - PT

by designatedforassignment on Aug 18, 2010 10:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

He's not a hard-throwing lefthander

He’s a guy who used to be a hard-throwing lefthander (without a great track record of success) who may never pitch effectively in the big leagues again — assuming he pitches in the big leagues again at all.

If he were to pitch well for a full season, then he’d have some value. Why would anyone trade anything for him, except as a salary dump (like getting Devine for Kotsay)?

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Aug 19, 2010 7:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

dangling Outman....

sounds like a good to hurt his surgically repaired elbow

by Sir Realist on Aug 19, 2010 12:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

Instead of saying, "can't hit with a long term deal"...

… since I think that would be difficult to quantify, can’t we just take notice that Beltre is now playing in a park that’s very friendly to his handedness?

"I've made a huge little mistake." - G.O.B.

by Joey C. on Aug 21, 2010 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

Obvious troll is obvious.

Frank Cohen
TeamTICKERmlb.com
Your Effortless Baseball Connection

by FrankCohen on Aug 18, 2010 10:03 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

He just is in love with GIO

NBD

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Aug 18, 2010 10:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

You be trollin

anyways… its called a curveball, not a slider.

by sums95 on Aug 18, 2010 10:34 PM PDT reply actions  

read the troll's post to fast

he did say curveball. Thought he said nasty slider and then 96 fb and then nice slider.

Good to know that you like Gio enough to be certain that you get underpaid in a trade.

by sums95 on Aug 18, 2010 10:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

We see you trollin'

We hatin’.

"I've made a huge little mistake." - G.O.B.

by Joey C. on Aug 21, 2010 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

NO WAY.

EXTEND Gio

Kthanxbye

Is this the real life-
Is this just fantasy-
Caught in a landslide-
No escape from reality-

by Daniel777 on Aug 18, 2010 10:37 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

You don't even really know much about Gio it sounds like

Gio does not throw 96. He’ll hit 94 every now and then, but for the most part he is around 91 and 92.

by duballers23 on Aug 18, 2010 10:42 PM PDT reply actions  

yeah. that makes sense, pitchers can summon velocity

zito used to hit 97 in a jam, but only if he really wanted to

by DubElXero on Aug 18, 2010 10:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

uh what

"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball

by flipgatey3 on Aug 20, 2010 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm pretty sure the only time Zito his 97 on the gun

was when they were in Toronto and the dude set it to “KPH”.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Aug 20, 2010 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

He probably should've "wanted to" more often.

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Aug 20, 2010 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

Or wilder, anyway.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 19, 2010 6:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

But Avatar was a decent movie

I usually talk out of my ass, but it's been said I have a nice ass.

by OptimistPrime on Aug 18, 2010 11:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

I give it two thumbs up ... BOTTOM LINE

I can't see, now I have to pee, and I can't count to three, but I can count to JÄGERMEISTER!

by doctorK on Aug 19, 2010 8:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

Actually,

he throws his curveball more than 30% of the time.

Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM

by travdog6 on Aug 18, 2010 10:56 PM PDT reply actions  

Furthermore

Show us proof that a pitcher get injured more by throwing fastballs than curves…

AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.

by stranahanahan on Aug 18, 2010 11:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

How's Sweden?

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin

by Helloooo 1st on Aug 19, 2010 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

Amazin

Come visit. I’ll tell you more about it at some point.

Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM

by travdog6 on Aug 19, 2010 10:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

While I tepidly agree with your basic premise

I don’t agree with your post, primarily because I don’t think it is accurate to say that Suzuki calls all fastballs. The A’s have the best pitching staff in baseball, and the catcher plays a major part in that success. It’s widely recognized in baseball that Suzuki is one of the best young catchers in the game. You don’t see the guys shaking him off much, do you? There are other things you say that others have called into question already, so I won’t harp on you.

I do, however, concur that we may need to trade an arm for a premiere bat. My first choice, as DFA so adroitly pointed out should be greened a hundred times, is that we should spend to get offense as opposed to trading our pitching. I don’t know how effective that plan may be come next season. It did not pan out well this year, as Beane was shot down repeatedly, and by players a lot less desirable than Dunn.

I think the only way we land a really big bat is with a really big arm, and Gio may be that guy. I think it would have to be Gio or Anderson. I know, I cringe typing it, because both of them, particularly Anderson, are going to be awesome for years, barring injury. But looking down into our system, there is no immediate help in the horizon for 2011.

I usually talk out of my ass, but it's been said I have a nice ass.

by OptimistPrime on Aug 18, 2010 11:39 PM PDT reply actions  

I don't think the A's will need to trade one of their current SPs to get a bat, although on a win for win level I'd say Gio for Shin-Soo Choo makes sense.

Gio=5yrs X 3 WAR=15 WAR
Choo=3yrs X 5 WAR=15 WAR

But I don’t see any reason the Indians would want to make a deal like that. It doesn’t help them rebuild, it just makes them worse. They’d be far more interested in getting something to bolster their minor leagues, like the A’s got for Haren. Something like Green, Donaldson, Weeks, Ross, Krol, and Mortensen. I think the dynamic of “buyers” and “sellers” is likely to dictate any big trades the A’s make this off-season. They can’t really afford to give up big league talent because the wins they’d be adding in the trade would be largely offset by the wins they’d subtract from losing someone like Gio. Even in the case of a star, team-controlled OFer like Choo the upgrade is pretty marginal. For 2011 you’d have:

Choo (4.5 WAR) – Sweeney (1.5 WAR) = +3 WAR
Mortensen (1.5 WAR) – Gio (3.0 WAR) = -1.5 WAR

So you’re talking about an upgrade of 1-2 Wins even if you get a young star at a position where the A’s are most in need. That kind of upgrade isn’t enough to get a mediocre team anywhere close to contention (see Street/Gonzalez for Holliday).

As an aside, I’m actually totally fine with the A’s selling off a substantial portion of the farm if they decide they want to shoot for a 90+ win contender starting next year, as long as the plan is executed in such a way that the A’s won’t have to rely on their farm much over the next three years. The A’s need two really good position players to contend, and they can’t afford to get both through FA, so the idea would be to sign an expensive FA (Crawford or Werth) and trade for a cheaper team controlled guy (Choo or Luke Scott, perhaps). That way you’d have two star OFers to go along with the A’s rotation and you could have 2-3 WAR players everywhere else (which I think the A’s can manage with the guys currently on their 40-man) and you hopefully wouldn’t have to rely on your farm too much for the three years that, say, Choo and Werth are around. Unfortunately, outside of the four guys mentioned above I can’t think of too many scenarios where this would work (Uggla?), and really Werth and Scott might end up dissappointing.
 

by Aufheben on Aug 19, 2010 12:02 AM PDT reply actions  

This plan sounds like rebuilding the 2007 Athletics all over again-- good but injury-prone starters, no depth whatsoever

That didn’t exactly work out well. (Not to mention, if you’re just going to do that, why on earth get rid of the 2007 team in the first place?)

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Aug 19, 2010 1:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

3yrs x 5 WAR is better than 5yrs x 3 WAR

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

by iglew on Aug 19, 2010 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

You don't go into the trade market targeting guys on your roster you want to get rid of

You go in with a list of guys on other teams whom you want to get. In principle, everyone is tradeable and no one is untouchable, so it’s possible that some team would make a valid offer for Gio, but I think it’s pretty unlikely.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Aug 19, 2010 7:16 AM PDT reply actions  

you're right!

But I’ll bet before you do go in looking for those guys that fit your needs, you’ve done a WAR-based or something similar analysis, if you’re BB. Maybe not, if you’re one of the non-stat-oriented GMs.

That said, I would be more averse to giving up Gio, Cahill, and Mazzaro than Braden or Anderson, no matter what my WAR study showed, because of durability so far. Unfortunately, that also lowers what I could expect in return, since Anderson’s upside is so much higher than his current trade value…

since Beane has used injury history as his new ‘undervalued’ way to get value on the cheap, I wonder if he’s developed a metric to rate the seriousness of injuries, or if he’s just winging it? If he does have a metric, I’d say it needs adjustment! (Sheets, not so good $-wise. Crisp, yes)

"Feel so bad, feel like a ballgame on a rainy day"-Lightnin' Hopkins

by justANotherAsFan on Aug 21, 2010 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

No trading starters.

Just no. Maybe if Outman or Ross or whoever turns out to be a reliable fifth man, but otherwise, no. This team will be a pitching team or it will be an irrelevant team.

Reliever Craig Breslow, the Yale graduate dubbed "the smartest man in baseball," said he doesn't have any theories. "Statistical variance?" he suggested. "I don't know at what point you attach statistical significance."

by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Aug 19, 2010 12:24 PM PDT reply actions  

Well, it's a pitching team this year and it's barely relevant

The A’s have one of the best rotation ERA’s in the league this year and it hasn’t been able to keep them over .500. Sticking with the status quo probably isn’t the best plan going forward. If there is a trade that can make the team better they should consider it even if it means trading one of the starters.

by OkayJay81 on Aug 19, 2010 7:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

Not saying status quo.

I’m saying trade a piece of the farm for bats. Don’t dismantle the one thing that has kept us alive this season. We’re not going to be an offensive team next year. We’ll be a pitching team with an adequate offense. If we trade our strength to fix our weakness, we’re just trading one weakness for another.

Reliever Craig Breslow, the Yale graduate dubbed "the smartest man in baseball," said he doesn't have any theories. "Statistical variance?" he suggested. "I don't know at what point you attach statistical significance."

by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Aug 20, 2010 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

Let's wait'll he really perfects the

The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus

by The Dogfather on Aug 20, 2010 6:55 AM PDT reply actions  

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