Yeah, We Need To Upgrade, But Where?

Also, I think we should pay him in pudding, Tasty vanilla pudding, with Nilla wafers.

I like this post. I’d like it even better if you could use a metric that takes into account a player’s defense into how valuable they are and then provided a similar graphic for the metric. That probably comes across as bitchin’ and complaining though, so I’ll stop.

Great work. Rec’d with enthusiasm!

i suppose now my question would be, do either of these guys look like good investments? i.e. if one were to take into account age, likely $s/years needed to sign them, and speculation on how their skill sets project.

a pretty subjective topic, this projecting business is, i realize…

- Trade Kouz

- Sign Beltre

- Sign/Trade for a veteran Starting Pitcher / Innings Eater (Livan Hernandez / Brett Myers / Randy Wolf)

- Trade Mazzaro for Luke Scott (RF)

- Non-Tender Ellis & Cust (Re-sign both for 5M combined)

- Trade Cardenas+ for Aaron Hill (2B)

2011:

1. Coco Crisp (CF)
2. Aaron Hill (2B)
3. Daric Barton (1B)
4. Adrian Beltre (3B)
5. Luke Scott (RF)
6. Kurt Suzuki ©
7. Jack Cust (DH) – Where he should be
8. Chris Carter (LF)
9. Cliff Pennington (SS)

I’m glad we’ll have money to throw around this off season.

I just hope that the promise of quality pitching + playoff potential will bring some talent to Oakland. I’m not optimistic on Beltre coming here after he snuffed us last season. So if we call the need at 2B, LF, & RF:

- trade for a 2B (possibly Gio or Mazz)
- Sign Werth or Crawford (probably have to pay them Chavvy’s money)
- resign Jackson w/ Carter or Taylor waiting to come up.

That’s a textbook example of how to create a useful graphic figure. I wish it didn’t say that every single position on the A’s roster should really be better than it is.

I’m not as convinced on the analysis, in that I don’t think we should avoid replacing the strongest logs just because they’re the strongest logs, since the whole team appears to be made of balsa wood. It should really be about creating the greatest gain over what we have at any given position, and since there is seemingly ample room to improve pretty much every position, I’d prefer finding the best available talent and courting it aggressively, regardless of position.

One other thing that’s absent from the notion of the financial commitments is the length of commitment, which is an important distinction in comparison to simple wins per dollar. I’d argue a team like the A’s can and should overpay in the short term, but most avoid long-term commitments that make it impossible to renovate the house if termites attack one of the logs, like bugs on Chavy’s spine. We can afford some really fancy logs if they’re only going to be in the house for a year or two. So, two key considerations when considering what to replace are:

1) How long do we anticipate having the existing logs around, and what capability do they have to grow stronger?
2) If we replace any of the existing ones, what do we have coming from the lumber mill that can replace the newly acquired logs in the near future?

Has Vernon Wells really been the best CF in baseball by wOBA? For as much as his contract gets crapped on, I guess he’s still a pretty useful baseball player.

This is a very important off-season for the A’s and as this story showed they should have money to spend.

I feel a rotation of Anderson,Cahill,Gonzalez,Braden and Mazzaro is a strong foundation for the team and while I am worried about Bailey’s health the bullpen pieces can be mixed and matched as needed.

When I look at the positon players I don’t see anyone who can’t be replaced. I’ll admit to being a Suzuki fan and I expect he’d have better numbers if he played less.

I’m fine with Barton but I’m not someone who sees him as the second coming or anything and I wouldn’t mind having a first baseman who doesn’t have twice as many errors as home runs this season.

There doesn’t seem to be a third baseman other than Beltre that can be a major upgrade over Kouzmanoff on the market so the outfield does seem the place to look.

I’m fine with Cust coming back next season although it wouldn’t surprise me if he doesn’t. I think a lot will depend on whether or not the A’s think Carter is ready to play.

If Carter can play then you wonder where the move is. I think the A’s want Conor Jackson to play one of the corner spots and then if you have Carter at the other you only have CF and DH left open.

I doubt Carl Crawford is coming to Oakland so my pick would be Jayson Werth on the right deal.

C -Suzuki
1B – Barton
2B – Rosales
SS – Pennington
3B – Kouzmanoff
LF – Werth
CF – Crisp
RF – Jackson
DH – Carter

Not great but if Barton continues to improve and Carter plays to his ability then maybe you have a winning team with this group.

What about a trade for Markakis? He’s been pretty blah the last 2 years (I think he’s at 2 wins this year with only 8 homers) and he’s owed something like 52 million over the next four years (which is probably about what Werth will get). But he is only 26 and gets on base a lot. Because he’s so young it would probably take something like Mazzarro and Taylor to get him, even with all of that salary coming back. I don’t know, just throwing stuff out here.

1) Cost is not value — Just because Fangraphs has done a calculation showing that past free agents have cost a certain amount in the past, does not mean that someone is or is " Not worth it in the slightest". Sale of comparable assets is one measure of market value, but is most probably not the value to a particular team. I agree that 1B isn’t where we start but I simply don’t accept that what a team pays for Carl Crawford has a whole lot to do with the average of prior Salary per WAR calculations done by Fangraphs.

A team should look at the impact on current year revenues and future year revenues, and compare those to cost. Fangraphs calculations are irrelevant here….except where they calculate WAR.

2) Signing Morneau makes sense if you can trade Barton for a 3 WAR corner OF. Of course you probably can’t.

Doesn’t sound so bad when the team can score 5+ runs every game.

but Fangraphs doesn’t carry WAR by position for each team, for some reason.

Overpay the hell for him and then trade Outman or Mazz to the Yanks for Swish and you could have.

1) Crisp CF
2) Barton 1B
3) Swish RF
4) Dunn DH
5) Carter LF
6) Zooks C
7) Kooz 3B
8) Larish/Sogard/Rosales 2B
9) Penny SS

HR problem solved and with the A’s pitching that’s enough offense to get 90ish wins.

Which means giving up a pitcher not named Anderson, Cahill, or Gio.

to note that this is one mightily beautiful and beautifully mighty graph. Now that I have made a complete mockery of usage of adverbs and adjectives, I have just enough time left to recommend this highly entertaining and well thought-out post before I indulge in what will surely be another four hours of ritual eating, also known as your typical Spanish dinner.

1. Sign Juan Uribe
2. Sign Aramis Ramirez (assuming option is not picked up)
3. Sign Jayson Werth
4. Trade Clayton Mortensen, Henry Rodriguez and Josh Donaldson for Mark Reynolds
(5. Non-tender Kouzmanoff)
(6. Don’t pick up Ellis’s option)

1. Crisp CF
2. Barton 1B
3. Jayson Werth RF
4. Aramis Ramirez 3B
5. Mark Reynolds DH
6. Juan Uribe 2B
7. Conor Jackson LF
8. Kurt Suzuki C
9. Cliff Pennington SS

Should the A’s be opening theirs for Dobbs?

Micah Owings was just DFA’d. Why not take a chance on him and try to convert him to the OF? He’s always been a great hitter.

DH/long man

something has to be done. The fact of the matter is that our offense is TERRIBLE. Not just really bad, but historically pathetic.

In most every trade/sign scenario discussed here, there always seems to be a million reasons not to do the deal. Too expensive or stats overstate/understate the true player value, or something. Always a reason not to pull the trigger.

AND YET, we suck.

We sucked last year. We sucked the year before. And the year before that.

Insanity is continuing to do the same thing and expecting a different outcome.

My solution is: Replace them all. We can’t be any worse.

If you include defense, our offense jumps from 25th to 17th in the majors, putting us above “really bad” into “slightly below average”.

http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&lg=all&stats=bat&type=6&season=2010&month=0

It’s really hard to include defense in with hitting just by watching the games.

I think that however Beane decides to improve this team over the off-season, it will definitely need to come via free agency or a salary-eating trade. Some people up-top are insinuating that the A’s should trade one of their young starters for a big hitter because of all of the “depth” the A’s have in starting pitching…what depth?

This team has a nice 1-5 right now…but nothing beyond that.
- Mortensen is fine as a sixth starter, but would be really stretched as a regular member of a big league rotation if someone above him in the depth chart is traded
- Ross has some talent but his elbow is already acting up after less than 2 years in pro baseball
- Outman may never be an effective pitcher again

Beyond those three…who else is in this system can be possibly be projected to pitch in a major league rotation? Maybe Ian Krol? He’s 19 and is in Low-A…

I’d say that this team needs to keep all the starters it has, lest it finds itself midway through 2011, throwing Lenny DiNardo or Brett Tomko out there every 5th day…

In addition, I just think that this team’s perpetual injury issues force this organization to add depth whenever possible.

Which leaves free agency and low-level or salary-eating trades. I’d say overpay for both O-Hud and Werth – maybe 2 years, $14 million for O-Hud and 4 years, $60 million for Werth – I’m firmly of the opinion that Crawford will not come here.

Cut Ellis loose…keep Kouz, but sign Aki Iwamura to a minor league deal and maybe pursue a trade for Andy LaRoche for depth.

Then roll with this lineup:
CF – Crisp
2B – O-Hud
RF – Werth
DH – Cust
LF – CoJax
1B – Barton
C – Suzuki
3B – Kouz
SS – Cliff

UT – Rosales
OF – Sweeney
OF – Rajai
C – Powell

1 – Anderson
2 – Cahill
3 – Gio
4 – Braden
5 – Mazzaro
(6) – Mortensen
(7) – Ross
(8) – Outman

Maybe re-sign Duke once again for an even lower base salary this time around? Maybe start him off in the bullpen and transition him back into starting if/when someone goes down?

Basically…my plan boils down to:
1- Keeping the nucleus in tact and stockpiling depth
2- Just straight overpaying for two guys that I think fit the holes of this team fairly well
3- Waiting for the Carter/Green/Brown/Weeks/Taylor/Cardenas wave of prospects to take over a position or two by the end of 2011

With a dam you replace the weak logs because a dam, by its very nature, is only as good as its weakest link. That is not true of a baseball team.

A baseball team is (roughly) as good as the sum of its parts, not limited by the weakest link. You still would likely look at replacing the weaker links as well, but only because there’s a better chance of finding a larger upgrade there. But if you do find a large upgrade at a strong position, that’s just as good as an equivalent upgrade at a weak position. (Indeed, it’s slightly better, because the weakness it leaves behind is one more easily fixed in the next transaction.)