xBABIP, and What We Can Expect For the Second Half
by danmerqury on Jul 6, 2010 7:00 AM PDT
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We're just embarking on the second half of the season here, with game 85 of 162 tonight. The A's definitely had a rather bumpy first half, but Oakland is currently sitting pretty much where they were predicted to sit before the season started—at .500. The pitching is good, and it could hit levels of greatness once some key players come back from injury. But what about the offense? What can we expect from Oakland's batters going into the second half?
First off, a preemptive apology for throwing another arcane-looking "lower case first letter stat" into the fire. This one's not too bad, I swear.
Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) is a stat that plays off of the principle that batters have very little control of balls hit into play. Sure, they can usually slap the ball in a general direction if they want to, and most hitters are pretty consistent about the amount of flies and grounders they hit, but other than that, batters essentially have very little control over hitting balls into gaps and such. Therefore, an overly high BABIP can indicate that a batter has been getting lucky at hitting balls between fielders, and an excessively low BABIP can indicate that a batter has been hitting balls right at fielders more often than normal.
But what is too high or too low? If someone has a BABIP of .310, should we expect better or worse things in the future? We could just assume the league average of around .300 and call it a day, but that's not good enough. A perfectly averagely lucky batter's BABIP completely depends on what kind of hitter that player is. A batter that hits only popups shouldn't be expected to have the same BABIP as one who only hits line drives. And a quick runner like Rajai Davis should be expected to have a higher BABIP than his batting profile would otherwise indicate, as his speed would allow him to beat out some grounders than most other batters wouldn't. So what is average? Well, the fine folks at The Hardball Times (Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix) created a model called xBABIP (expected BABIP) that looks at a batting profile and calculates what a perfectly average luck would do to a BABIP. Here are the results from the first half of 2010.
The huge red flag on Jack Cust shouldn't really surprise anyone. If you really expect him to continue hitting over .300, you're likely to be disappointed. Everyone else, though, has been pretty neutral as far as getting lucky on batted balls, with one exception—Kurt Suzuki. Kurt is truly doing something remarkable. He's basically matched the production you'd expect from his career numbers, and he's doing it with a microscopic BABIP that's more than 40 points below his career average. Kurt tends to hit a lot of pop-ups and fly balls, so xBABIP says that his normal luck-free BABIP is only .285, 15 points below the league average. But Kurt's actual BABIP is so low that even a regression half as strong as expected would have him batting .270 and slugging .450. Whatever Kurt did over the offseason, he needs to keep doing it.
The A's take on the Yankees again tonight, this time, featuring one of the marquee pitching matchups of the year—Trevor Cahill vs. CC Sabathia. The battle of the two All-Stars starts at 7:05 PM.
Afterwords
- I didn't use the full xBABIP model, but rather, the simplified version found here, in the "Quick Calculator" section. All it uses for calculation is AB, HR, K, SB, line drive percentage, and the number of fly balls, pop-ups, and ground balls. The inclusion of stolen bases is a quick way of eyeballing speed. It's not a perfect measurement, but it should come close enough.
- If you fully regress Cust's numbers, his batting line comes out to .230/.360/.350. Not nearly as good. Basically, it's Cust without the power, which is essentially what we've seen. Now, I doubt his numbers will fully regress that low, but it's something to look out for, at the very least.
- These numbers were taken after the series with the Indians that ended on July 4th.
- An even quicker way of coming up with an expected BABIP is just to add a player's line drive percentage to .120. It's not a great method, but it works in a pinch.
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Cust's BABIP and the Cust shift
Two factors that affect an individual player’s BABIP (not the only factors, but two of them in any case) are the player’s running speed and the defense’s effectiveness against them. If Kouzmanoff and Davis somehow hit exactly the same kinds of balls in play during the course of a season, we’d expect Davis to have a noticeably higher BABIP because he’d manage to get infield hits on grounders that were outs for Kouz.
Cust is not going to use his blazing speed to raise his BABIP, but he could earn an unusually high BABIP by confounding the Cust shift. If teams continue to play him with an exaggerated shift, leaving the left side of the infield open, and he figures out how to hit the ball where they ain’t, then his BABIP will go way up — and he’ll be doing it in a pretty repeatable way that isn’t subject to luck, at least until they revert to a conventional defensive alignment against him.
I don’t have time now to look at Cust’s hit distribution, but it would be something to consider when evaluating how much of his ridiculously high BABIP is due to sheer luck.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
On the other hand if he continues to hit into the shift, his BABIP could drop hugely...like Dan Johnson
it’s tough to ‘support the laundry’, especially when the teams are losing on a consistent basis. - OldhamA
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 6, 2010 8:11 AM PDT up reply actions
Right -- that's part of what happened to Giambi last year, IIRC
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
He would not only sustain a high BABIP while they shifted,
but if they had to stop shifting then later his BABIP would stay higher as a result because he’d be hitting into a conventional defensive alignment.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
The classic Pass/Run theory.
If you have a great QB who passes a lot, they’ll defend against that, opening up your running backs to do more damage, forcing them to protect against the run…opening up your passing game.
Granted, hitting a baseball to the left, the center or the right is harder than deciding pass or run, but the idea is the same.
Or you just draft Thomas Davis and play him as a QB spy.
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
Assuming he could go back to his normal way of hitting, where the only thing he hits to the left of CF is in the air
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
doesn't it seem like Cust is getting a lot of top spin (if that is even a word, I'm thinking the opposite of backspin)?
it seems like he is getting a lot of singles that dump in the shallow outfield. They seem to be hit hard but instead of hanging up and reaching the outfielders it spins down hard in front of them. Maybe it is just my imagination.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
Well back spin is the thing that makes baseballs travel further, so you could be right.
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
sure, but what is he doing differently that would for explain for different ballspin than another year?
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!! - danmerqury
by cuppingmaster on Jul 6, 2010 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions
Hitting the top of the ball rather than getting underneath it?
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
Isn't that more likely to cause ground balls, though?
And for the ones he would hit in the air, it seems beyond unlucky that it would happen consistently.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!! - danmerqury
by cuppingmaster on Jul 6, 2010 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions
hitting toward the top of the ball with an uppercut swing
would cause the ball to initially go up while spinning forward, causing the ball to drop quickly.
He’s not hitting on the top of the ball, but still on the upper half of the ball. Meaning he’s just missing squaring the ball up.
that’s my theory.
It doesn't seem different to me,
I’ve always noticed his “topspin” hits, in fact I’m pretty sure even Glen and Ray have talked about it in years past.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
could be
maybe he is just getting lucky in where they are landing?
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
Overall it looks like the team's BABIP is about where it should be...with Cust due to
drop off big and everybody else about where they should be
it’s tough to ‘support the laundry’, especially when the teams are losing on a consistent basis. - OldhamA
robotmerq. is. pleased. and. thanks. you. for. the. kind. words.
KKKKKKCHCHCTTTTTT!!!!!!!
{robot shorting out or KTRB signal after dark? tune in next week to find out…}
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Beep boop.
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
robotdan
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
And Rocksteady!
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
Do catchers reliably underperform xBABIP?
It seems like they should.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Is there a xBABIP adjusted for position?
by LoneStranger on Jul 6, 2010 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions
And that their legs/knees get a lot more wear than other players
Which is (at least) closely tied to slowness.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
No idea.
But it makes sense, because of the bad legs.
She lives by the wall, and waits by the door.
She walks in the sun, to me.
I still think he deserves a kicking for not beating out that ground ball to 3B last night.
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
Except that doesn't make since because xBABIP already takes batter's "speed" into account.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Jul 6, 2010 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions
Vaguely. By way of the stolen base.
But among all people with 0 stolen bases, I’d imagine catchers would make up the slowest of the slow.
She lives by the wall, and waits by the door.
She walks in the sun, to me.
But it is also is affected when the runner beats out the throw at first.
That seems to me to be another way it takes their speed into account, even if it’s not measuring speed directly.
by LoneStranger on Jul 6, 2010 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Ah, well it depends on the xBABIP generator you're using.
The best ones use “speed score” which is not just stolen bases, usually has other components like percentage of triples, frequency of stolen base attempts, and percentage of runs scored.
Theoretically if someone “regularly underperforms” a projection, then there’s something not being taken into account in the projection system.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Jul 6, 2010 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions
great post
BABIP is a great tool to look at luck.
who is this Landon Powell?
I don’t think I’ve ever seen that guy play?
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
I'll have to read this two or three times
but I’ll kinda maybe sorta halfway understand it after that!
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
I'm on my 23rd read and I almost understand the first sentence!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I don't have time to absorb it today (too much actual "work" to do)
so I’m gonna be asking dan about xBABIP every day for the rest of the season. Aren’t you excited dannycakes??!
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
I KNEW IT
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
dannycakes is much funnier now that we know DM is like 13 years old.
SIG SPACE AVAILABLE FOR SPONSORSHIP. INQUIRE WITHIN.
Just remember,
the xBABIP’s WAR is only valid if the xFIP’s wOBA is higher than the wRC+ VORP tRA split.
She lives by the wall, and waits by the door.
She walks in the sun, to me.
I think you are missing a couple of slashes in there.
And you didn’t even mention how UZR changes based on BIS data, or how RZR compares!
pffff, that equation is totally obsolete.
Nobody uses VORP anymore.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
That's not very UZR friendly
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Mommy, my brain’s spilling.
Wuertz was scratched from a minor league game on Wednesday, but bounced back quickly on Thursday, throwing mostly fastballs and sliders, although he did mix in three sliders. -Rotoworld
by ElQuesoCapitan on Jul 6, 2010 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions
I knew I didn't like you for some reason.
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
I think he means
red = lucky so far, and therefore should get worse when the good luck wears out.
green = UNlucky so far, and therefore should get better when the bad luck wears out.
Of course, it would have been easier if he’d just said that. Intuitively I would have figured green to be lucky and red to be unlucky.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
Ooh, colors. I like color.
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
Hmm. Didn't think about that.
It seemed intuitive to me the other way around.
She lives by the wall, and waits by the door.
She walks in the sun, to me.
Maybe that's because you're young and thinking about the future,
whereas I’m old and thinking about the past.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
Um, how's come when you esplain it, it makes perfect sense,
and then five minutes later everything you told me is gone from my head?
sock puppets have never successfully defended castles, except when working with squirrels, which would never happen because squirrels know better than to trust sock puppets. -nm
That's like the doctor's appointment I had
where my doctor said the news was really bad: that I had cancer, and I also had Alzheimer’s. My reply was, “Well at least I don’t have cancer.”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Um, how come you hang out in all the CT threads but
never in the game threads?
It’s because you’re trying to hide from me, isn’t it?
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
Cust is such an oddity
Is he really going out of his way to show us what him striking out less means (less EBH, higher BA)?
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
Is she really going out with him?
Joe Jackson really wants to know. There’s something strange going on around here.
sock puppets have never successfully defended castles, except when working with squirrels, which would never happen because squirrels know better than to trust sock puppets. -nm
by Leopold Bloom on Jul 6, 2010 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions
He needs more hustle in the muscle.
Wuertz was scratched from a minor league game on Wednesday, but bounced back quickly on Thursday, throwing mostly fastballs and sliders, although he did mix in three sliders. -Rotoworld
by ElQuesoCapitan on Jul 6, 2010 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions
WHY CAN'T WE HIT THOUGH.
Wuertz was scratched from a minor league game on Wednesday, but bounced back quickly on Thursday, throwing mostly fastballs and sliders, although he did mix in three sliders. -Rotoworld
We’re 11th in all of baseball in batting average, but 71.5 percent of those hits are singles. We’re 24th in walks and tied for 19th in OBP.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Jul 6, 2010 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions
It's the year of the pitcher
OPS across the league is down from .751 last year to .733 this year.
A’s line .261/.324/.379 (.703)
League avg. line . 259/.329/.404 (.733)
BTW, our hitting has been improving
OPS: March/April .695, May .680, June .743
In June we actually had above-average hitting.
How much did Kouz and Pennington have to do with that?
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
I would have thought with above average hitting - we would have won more games?
how odd.
"Are those new tarps? Or did they paint 'em?" Mark Ellis
With his new swing Cust is now a leading DH
This is the year of the pitcher and hitters across the board are doing worse. To adjust for ballparks let’s look at the away splits for designated hitters. We find that of all DH’s with >100 PAs, Cust is #1 in OBP, #2 in OPS and #6 in slugging:
BA/OBP/SLG (OPS)
Jim Thome (Twins) .266/.390/.578 (.968)
Jack Cust (A’s) .319/.434/.449 (.883)
David Ortiz: (Red Sox) .229/.352/.505 (.857)
Mike Sweeney (Mariners) .293/.333/.512 (.846)
Vlad Guerrero (Rangers) .285/.338/.504 (.842)
Carlos Guillen (Tigers) .322/.392/.414 (.806)
Jose Guillen (Royals) .295/.351/.451 (.802)
Jason Kubel (Twins) . 252/.341/.403 (.744)
Hideki Matsui (Angels) .265/.331/.397 (.728)
Luke Scott (Orioles) .241/.311/.407 (.718)
Johnny Damon (Tigers) .259/.367/.348 (.715)
Jorge Posada (Yankees) .198/.324/.384 (.708)
Willy Aybar (Rays) .236/.282/.375 (.657)
Travis Hafner (Indians) .189/.298/.279 (.577)
Adam Lind (Blue Jays) .179/.249/.327 (.575)
Source: Baseball Reference
Jack Cust
Is a wonderful, excellent human being and baseball player.
Great work dan
All I have to say is Washington DC is fucking hot.
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
She certainly is.
Have you seen that picture of her in the red dress? Yowza!
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
JaneMLB
#Athletics vs. #Yankees: Crisp CF, Barton 1B, Suzuki C, Kouzmanoff 3B, Ellis 2B, Cust DH, Rosales SS, Carson RF, Davis LF
less than 10 seconds ago via txt
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Jul 6, 2010 3:51 PM PDT reply actions
OH RAD MARK ELLIS GETS MORE AT BATS THAN CUST
MAKES TOTAL AND PERFECT SENSE.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
We're facing a left handed pitcher...
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
LHP and in the Mausoleum
Cust is better against righties and away. I’m a big Cust fan but if we’re going to shuffle the lineup based on splits this makes sense. I definitely want to see Cust #3 or #4 against RHP and away.
Lets break this down
Okay, so apparently Ellis is better than Cust vs lefties and in Oakland:
Jack Cust vs Lefties in 2010: 596 OPS
Mark Ellis vs Lefties in 2010: 635 OPS
Jack Cust vs Lefties career: 729 OPS
Mark Ellis vs Lefties career: 765 OPS
Jack Cust in Oakland in 2010: 740 OPS
Mark Ellis in Oakland in 2010: 538 OPS
Jack Cust in Oakland career: 913 OPS
Mark Ellis in Oakland career: 726 OPS
So yes, even though Cust has a SSS against LHP, he is absolutely better a hitter in Oakland than Ellis. I dont think giving Ellis more PA’s is going to help the team more than Cust can with the bat. Just let Cust fucking hit already….
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
question on zooks...
It appears that his flyball rate is up and his strikeout rate is down – both versus the prior 2 years. So he’s putting more balls into play but getting less hits? But interesting, his home run rate is up (he’s ahead of the prior two years pace) – so it makes sense that his HR/FB ratio is up dramatically. But his LD % is down.
Is it possible that Zooks is trying to hit more home runs but striking out less?
Help!
That's what I'd guess from the numbers.
His HR/FB ratio is up, and at the same time, his FB rate is up. Usually, when a batter starts trying to hit for more power, his strikeout rate goes up, but Kurt’s K rate is actually down. Instead, he’s swinging at everything and making more contact. End result? Similar production as every year. Odd.
She lives by the wall, and waits by the door.
She walks in the sun, to me.
Seriously this crap gives me a headache.
yet here I am.
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
You are a gamer,
Pamcakes. That’s why we love you.
Illud ea quod dixit est.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
I do not like that even in Latin!
or in a car or in a tree….Oh iglew, iglew, you let me be!!!
;-)
"Are those new tarps? Or did they paint 'em?" Mark Ellis
Are the numbers being interpreted correctly?
Is the difference being interpreted correclty here? If xBABIP is the “true” BABIP, adjusted for grounders and fly balls and the like, then xBABIP is the one to use, and BABIP just reflects a (probably persistent) difference in distribution of grounders, flies, line drives, etc. the hitter hits.
Here are the BABIPs of various kinds of hits in 2009:
Ground balls: .237
Fly balls: .138
Line drives: .724
Bunts: .376
So the positive difference between BABIP and xBABIT just means Suzuki and Kouz hit into lots of flies or ground balls, whereas Cust hits into many more line drives explaining his big negative difference. A hitter’s frequencies of flies, ground balls, etc. aren’t random, they depend on batting style and are generally persistent.
The better way to interpret these numbers, assuming xBABIP is correctly adjusts for hitting style, is just to use xBABIP, so that Crisp at .326 and Cust at .325 we expect to get a bit worse (but not nearly so much as suggested by the Cust “red” box), and Suzuki at .285 and Jackson at .282 we expect to get a bit better. I’m not sure the xBABIP truly adjusts for all hitting style differences, but assuming it does the difference BABIP-xBABIT reflects the hitting style not the luck.
xBABIP doesn't correct for the AMOUNT of grounders, flies, etc
but, rather, it corrects for the hit success rate of the grounders, flies, and line drives that were hit. So the positive difference between BABIP and xBABIP for Suzuki doesn’t come from the rate of flies/grounders he hits, but the amount of flies/grounders that were turned into hits/outs.
She lives by the wall, and waits by the door.
She walks in the sun, to me.
So that means if Crisp hits more line drives and less fly balls than Suzuki, that neither BABIP nor xBABIP corrects for this, but we are supposed to just assume that such differences between players are just random variation?
Nope.
It’s not adjusting the rate of line drives or fly balls. As far as xBABIP is concerned, that’s concrete. For example, if Crisp hit 20 line drives, 40 fly balls, and 40 ground balls, xBABIP would take those numbers you have up there:
(.724)(20 line drives/100 balls) + (.138)(40 fly balls/100 balls) + (.237)(40 ground balls/100 balls) for a xBABIP of .295.
She lives by the wall, and waits by the door.
She walks in the sun, to me.
So if Suzuki hit 10 lines, 50 flies and 40 grounders, he’d have an xBABIP of
.724*(10/100) + .138*(50/100)+ .237*(40/100) = .236
So we don’t need to buy that either xBABIP or BABIP reflect primarily random variation, since different hitters have persistently different ratios of these kinds of hits. But the difference between BABIP and xBABIP may since it leaves a number that is not explained by different ratios of grounds/flies/lines?. Although it may also reflect more subtle distinctions between batting styles.
I'd go with groovy.
Or neat.
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
Are certain words creeping into his conversation?
Words like “swell”, or “so’s your old man”?
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
seems like the two outliers are the two players that changed their approach
I’m willing to believe that Suzuki is getting unlucky, and pretty convinced that Cust has benefited from luck, but doesn’t it also seem plausible that part of this difference from expected BABIP is the result of Suzuki trying to hit more home runs and Cust trying to hit more line drives?
Sure.
The xBABIP model isn’t perfect, so it’s more than possible that some real talent is pushing the xBABIP away from what it “should” be.
In particular, it seems like the guys at the bottom of the table (overperforming their xBABIP) tend to be the more patient ones, while the players up at the top of the table are free swingers, comparatively. I’m not sure if that’s a real pattern or just a fluke. Also could be that the patient hitters are more likely to make hard contact. I’m not really sure.
She lives by the wall, and waits by the door.
She walks in the sun, to me.
Sandoval & Renteria saw a g-g-g-g-GHOST!!
http://sfist.com/2010/07/06/two_giants_players_switch_hotels_af.php
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
"I did not have relations with that stat....BABIP."
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
My therapist agrees.
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
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