Left Side, Streaky Much?
by Nico on Jul 3, 2010 10:46 AM PDT
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PrintThere's not much middle ground when it comes to Kevin Kouzmanoff and Cliff Pennington at the plate this year.
Kouzmanoff was pretty woeful in April and May, batting .240, slugging .335, and getting on base less than 30% of the time. Then June arrived and brought with it a 14-game hitting streak that included 4 two-hit games, 4 three-hit games, and 3 HRs. Kouz is currently 0 for his last 24.
Pennington, meanwhile, got off to a nifty start slugging .450 in April, until he hit the skids -- and man does this guy know how hit the skids. When he was 6 for his last 66, you had to wonder about Satanic forces (which is when you don't need to tag Satan). Or you could just wait for June, during which Pennington rebounded to hit .338/.402/.442. That'll do, pig. That'll do.
How to explain this extreme a level of "up and down" for our infield next-door neighbors?
Some of it is due to the phenomenon of "cherry picking," whereby you select exactly 66 ABs because Pennington got hits the games before and after -- and so it was not just a 6 for 66 stretch, it was also a 9 for 72 stretch but 6 for 66 is more newsworthy so we choose that exact and arbitrary set of games to note.
Some of it is due to chance, as Kouzmanoff's 0 for 24 is a lot more interesting than the 3 for 24 he'd be if a few recent liners and hole-seeking sharp grounders hadn't been just caught instead of just missed.
Yet even discounting all contextual factors, it's hard to dispute that these two guys have been unusually streaky at the plate this year. Any ideas why?
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Do you mean Clay Mortensen, aka
“THE FRANCHISE”?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
hahaha
Totally back that nickname: CLAYMORE – THE FRANCHISE!!!
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
I love how it's labeled which side to point toward the enemy.
Gotta make them army proof.
The sad thing is, it probably happened.
so they decided to label it.
If I'm using that
I want it to be as mental lapse proof as they can possibly make it.
Ask me about my squirrel.
problem is
it doesn’t actually say which side is the front . . . it just tells you to put the front towards the enemy.
Your third place Oakland A's.
by eastcoasta'sfan on Jul 3, 2010 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions
I see his name and I think of that SNL skit
“Mort Mort Feingold, Accountant to the Stars”
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!! - danmerqury
by cuppingmaster on Jul 3, 2010 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions
Is that sung to the same tune as Tap Plastics?
“Mort. Mort Feingold. The accountant to the stars. M-m-m-mort!”
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
Amazingly, Pennington has been ever so slightly better with the bat than Kouzmanoff this year
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jul 3, 2010 11:15 AM PDT reply actions
He's a better hitter than Kouzmanoff.
In the sense that he has a much better approach at the plate. If he had any sort of power he’d be an All-Star.
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
Kouz' power + Pennington's approach = All Star
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Yet, many posters think that this simple lack of power means he is AAAA.
Its very weird reading posts about demoting him, he’s one of the brightest young players we have. He will have a career thats better than Nick Punto, thats a given. He is the very definition of an injured prospect who’s minor league numbers are irrelevant, as he was handicapped the whole time. If you go only off what we have seen at the big league level, we have a 3 WAR SS, that’s absolutely not a problem, and we should never really speak of getting rid of him anytime soon, if ever. Actually if he finishes this year at 3+ we should sign him to an extension. People laughed when I said he was a threat to have 30 SB, I still stand by that, he’s been running very well lately.
Kouz is Kouz, he showed us he can hit before the All Star break and thats enough for me. His career OPS in the 1st half is 708. 708. That isnt very good, but he really finishes strong and his second half split is 779. If he does that again, then we are going to have another 3-4 WAR player, and thats a very good thing. It almost makes me want us to trade for Uggla, just so we can have a whole infield that is 3+ WAR guys. I’d trade 2B defense for 25+ HR any day.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
There haven't been many complaints about Penny
Certainly not as many as about Cust. I think we all know he’s one of the best defenders in the league.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!! - danmerqury
by cuppingmaster on Jul 3, 2010 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions
best defenders = Pennington
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!! - danmerqury
by cuppingmaster on Jul 3, 2010 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Actually, not everyone is sold on his defense
I think it’s been good, a lot better than the “raw numbers” which show too many errors. But many feel it’s been average or slightly below, so it’s not a clear consensus.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
perhaps, but he is only bound to get better playing everyday
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!! - danmerqury
by cuppingmaster on Jul 3, 2010 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions
He's played decently on defense, but no better than decently to my eyes.
He’s much better than Adam Rosales and much worse than Brendan Ryan. How’s that?
it’s tough to ‘support the laundry’, especially when the teams are losing on a consistent basis. - OldhamA
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 3, 2010 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions
I feel somewhat vindicated
I have been advocating his promotion a year before BoCrosby left town. PT and DFA really have a lot of heated notions that his minor league stat’s doom him from any sort of future. Perfect example of how numerical analysis isn’t always the be all end all.
No guarantee
He’d be the same player today had he been promoted last year.
Ask me about my squirrel.
exactly my point
Penny’s numbers in the minors were skewed by being hurt pretty consistently since his first year in pro ball, where he dominated. He is a case study in minor league numbers not being any true source of trying to evaluate him as a player.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
Cliff Pennington's career minor league OPS: .720
Cliff Pennington’s career major league OPS: .707
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Yeah it was 720 while he played through injuries
It should have been much higher. He’s had 646 PA’s now and his OPS is just slightly below league average, if you subtract his horrid month then it goes to league average. From a SS, he’s not going to win MVPs but if he stays consistently a 3 WAR player, then what the kids call “fucking awesome”. As we had no real option other than Green to play there, its a huge relief we got a guy who can get it done on a daily basis, isnt it?
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
And why are we throwing out his bad month?
Convenience?
Ask me about my squirrel.
Because everyones allowed a mulligan
;)
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
I'm of the mind that if you take out his worst month
You also need to take out his best month. If the numbers still prove your point after that, I’ll concede you the point :)
Ask me about my squirrel.
If he was injured for 5 consecutive seasons in the minors
why would he stop being injured to the same extent for the next 5 major-league seasons?
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
If Pennington suffers a career ending injury today
Will he still have a better career than Nick Punto?
Ask me about my squirrel.
Defense
It almost makes me want us to trade for Uggla, just so we can have a whole infield that is 3+ WAR guys.
But isn’t it true that defense-heavy WAR is less likely to repeat in the following year? And isn’t Sweeney an example of that?
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
If my memory serves me, Kouz' hot streak, coincides with what has been the problem with a lot
of A’s free agent signings. They come from the NL, and hit well in interleague play.
Who are these "lot of A's free agent signings"?
Let’s see there was Piazza and Karros and Gant….these guys all sucked with Oakland.
it’s tough to ‘support the laundry’, especially when the teams are losing on a consistent basis. - OldhamA
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 3, 2010 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Kotsay and Kendall, both had very good interleague stats, when they were with the A's
by theblackpearl on Jul 3, 2010 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Neither were FA signings
Ask me about my squirrel.
Neither was Kouz, but they all came from the NL.
Other kids may be sayin' hi-ho, but The Gooch just says yo.
Pennington's streakiness may be different from Kouzmanoff's
Kouzmanoff is a major league veteran who goes through dry and hot spells. He may indeed be a very streaky hitter.
It’s not clear about Pennington. Pennington, when he came up late in the year, hit pretty well once he figured things out. This year, he started pretty much the same way he ended, if not better. It’s likely, I think, that over the course of April into May, a “book” was developed on him, and people started figuring him out. So his average dropped because of the book. Now it’s possible that he finally figured things out again, and got really hot.
Most MLB players when they come up either start hot, or start cold and then get hot…then there’s a book, and they dip, and then they figure that one out. Obviously it’s always a chess game, with the pitchers getting ahead, the hitters catching up, then the pitchers getting ahead again. But that very first slump is often the biggest and at least to me, seems to me one of the differences between an AAAA player and a major leaguer…if they can get past that first book, they have a real shot at a career. If they can’t, they’re through.
That’s my guess.
So Crosby's and his affinity
for missing a slider by 5-9 inches from the barrell of the bat never failed to infuriate me. I agree about the chess game part, its a give and take over the scouting report.
Thats a pretty loose usage of the word "veteran"
when he’s only in his 4th season.
In fact, I’m sure that’s why Beane went after Kouz, because his numbers were way skewed by playing in SD and Beane felt Kouz could get back closer to his gaudy minor league numbers if he was “rescued” from the hitters nightmare that is SD. I’d say in this case, we really dont have any idea what kind of hitters they are. I mean yeah, the signs point to Kouz seemingly more of a “traditional” streak-y guy, while Pennington merely had 1 bad month and thats been the only bad month in his career up here so far.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
4th season = veteran
That’s not loose at all. He’s had plenty of time to adjust and to have pitchers re-adjust.
For crying out loud, the guy's gone bald!
Veteran.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Not to derail this thread
But a good article in the Chron. More reasons to hate the gnats.
Neukom’s hardball tactics bad for Bay Area
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!! - danmerqury
And now a word about Sweeney's ass....
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Meh.
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
That was the one!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I love larry stone
(not an endorsement of the A’s moving to SJ)
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
He's underestimating the revenue part
If the A’s move to San Jose, Silicon Valley companies will either split their number of box seat tickets in half, or go with the closer stadium entirely. The Giants have a huge debt load. Neukom is fighting for that.
Lew Wolff knew Fremont was a better idea because the same revenue-sharing from Silicon Valley would have taken place, and there would have been no lawsuit.
I hate the idea of San Jose and love the idea of Oakland, but beyond that, I really really hate the idea of either the Montclair New Jersey A’s, or worse, the contraction-death of the team.
That might depend just on how much they're getting from SV companies
Some sure, but I can’t imagine that’s their bread and butter. If so, than they’re in pretty bad shape regardless of what happens.
Ask me about my squirrel.
Look at the sell-outs
A lot of companies exist on the peninsula, and the Giants have been courting them for a long, long time.
Don't think I'd consider the Peninsula a part of SV.
Ask me about my squirrel.
where do you count Palo Alto
It’s got plenty of silicon, but the presence of the Dumbarton Bridge implies that it’s still on the peninsula.
In my mind Palo Alto is unquestionably
part of “Silicon Valley”. The ones I think are debatable are Menlo Park and Redwood City. I’d lean toward counting those two as well, but definitely Palo Alto.
If you exclude Palo Alto, you’re excluding Hewlett-Packard and Stanford University. If you exclude Menlo Park, you’re excluding Google and Sand Hill Road. If you exclude Redwood City, you’re excluding Oracle.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
He seems not to get his term straight
A stopper in baseball is a starter who stops losing streaks. The examples he’s giving are closers. Somehow I don’t see Neukom as a closer.
Ask me about my squirrel.
That's a great piece
and summarizes succinctly the positive effects a new stadium could have on its community.
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
opposite field hitting
Just for once I would like to see Kouz hit to the right field. Most of his balls are hit down thirdbase line for a easy ground out. Teach this boy to hit to all parts of the field.
He does hit to right field - they just tend to be fly outs.
He has such an ugly swing though I don’t know if he can influence where the ball goes.
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
Sweeney the best at it
He gave up his power to be a .300 hitter and now can place the ball more to where he wants it to go.
Why does he keep "placing" it weakly on the ground to the shortstop?
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Unfortunately, he's both uniquely able to dictate where he hits the ball
and also uniquely stupid.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
susanslusser
#Athletics at #Indians: Crisp cf, Barton 1b, Kouzmanoff 3b, Suzuki c, Sweeney rf, Cust dh, Rosales 2b, Gross lf, Pennington ss
half a minute ago via Twittelator
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Jul 3, 2010 1:22 PM PDT reply actions
when is cust going to hit in the heart of the order?
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
after geren is fired
Your third place Oakland A's.
by eastcoasta'sfan on Jul 3, 2010 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions
When we stop having 3 guys who hit into too many double plays in the heart of the order.
Whats the point of putting 2 slow guys in front of Kouz/Zooks/Swingles? Just how many times has Barton been doubled off already this year? At this point Barton should be hitting leadoff just so Crisp/Davis can at least give us a better chance at avoiding the double play.
For those counting, that’s 35 this year already from those 3. Wouldnt have a problem with this if they were all OPSing 800+….but, they arent.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
Flip Cust up to #3
and leave the rest the same and you have a good lineup, IMO.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
JaneMLB
Just a day off for Ellis to give his legs some rest. #Athletics
half a minute ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Jul 3, 2010 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Don't know about you guys
But I really like Mortensen. I think he can become a very good #5/above average #4 for the A’s. He’s a groundball machine with a pretty good K rate and very good BB rate (which he improved upon from last year). I actually think he will be a much more consistent option than Mazzaro.
Jack "The Must, Just has no Rust, ain't no Bust, after him the ladies Lust, turns pitchers into Dust, likes his pizza with no Crust" Cust
I think he's Saarloos, Halama, and DiNardo
He’ll randomly have a good year sometime, but when he slips he’ll plummet and he’ll be out of big league baseball quickly.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
The guy he's facing today, Westbrook, is probably who Mortensen would be if everything breaks right for him.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
i'd take that from a #5
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Jul 3, 2010 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Thats a good call
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
Speaking of Streaky McStreakerton himself, JJ Cust
June 2 – July 2: 918 OPS
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
susanslusser
Brett Anderson is pitching in a simulated game tomorrow; if all goes along the same schedule, he’d be back with #Athletics July 19.
2 minutes ago via web
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Jul 3, 2010 3:13 PM PDT reply actions
Crosses everything on body.
If we can manage to keep hot till then am I delusional to think we have a small chance?
Yes, but thanks for being a fan!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Perhaps danmerquery
can read Fangraphs and come up with the answer?
"The Few, The Proud, The A's Fan" - UncleLeo
Ooh -- that would be uniquely worth reading!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
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