Exploring an Andrew Bailey-for-Jesus Montero trade

1.  Are the A's out of the AL West race? 

2.  Can prospect Chris Carter be an adequate major league left fielder defensively?

Your answers to those two questions have a huge impact upon how you'll feel about this trade idea.

The A's currently have about a 5% chance of making the playoffs, which answers the first question for me.  The second question is much more murky, because the A's have played Carter almost exclusively at first base in Sacramento this year.  But I'll be optimistic on that one, since Carter is a 23-year-old good athlete.

If you take the same stance on those two points as I do, you might be in favor of a trade built around these two major pieces:  Andrew Bailey to the Yankees, and DH/1b prospect Jesus Montero to the A's.

If the Yankees offered Montero for Soria, as they are rumored to have, I see no reason why they wouldn't also offer him for Andrew Bailey, if Bailey can establish that he's healthy prior to the deadline.  (He would have to pitch effectively in one of next two nights in order to do this).

I'm intrigued by the Yankees' interest in Soria.  He and Bailey are similar in many ways.

Both are obviously elite young closers.

Both Soria and Bailey have 4 years of contractual control beyond this year.  They also could be projected to make very similar amounts of money over the next four years, even though Soria has two more years of service time.  This is because Soria is signed a very team-friendly expension in '08, and Bailey hasn't yet.

Let's compare salary pictures for the two elite closers:

Soria is making $3M this year in what would have been his first arby season; he's also committed for $4M in 2011. Then his contract has team options for 2012 at $6M, 2013 at $8M, and 2014 at $8. 75M. 

Total contract cost of Soria for 2011-2014:  $26.75M.

Now, Soria's salaries at each service-time landmark of his career don't work very well as estimates for Bailey.  Soria signed his long-term extension in May of '08, prior to his two most recent very dominant seasons.  That's why it's so team-friendly.  In contrast, Jon Papelbon made $6.25M as an All-Star first-year arby eligible closer (3 years of service); Soria is making $1M this year with 3 years of service). 

So we have to use Papelbon as comp when "2/3-time All-Star Andrew Bailey" goes to arbitration after 2011.

Thus, here's salary projections for Bailey, assuming no contract extension:

2011:  $500K (slight raise).
2012:  $6.25M (Bailey's first year of arby)
2013:  $9.35M (I used Papelbon's salary in his second year of arbitration eligibility, too).
2014:  $12.5M (Bailey's final year of arby). 

Total estimated Bailey salary, 2011-2014:  $28.6M.
Total exact Soria salary, 2011-2014:  $26.75M. 

These figures are close enough that we can basically call the salary difference between the two a wash, given that the Bailey figures are just projections.  However, the slight edge might go to Soria in contract value just because teams team value cost certainty long-term when creating a budget. 

For the Yankees, acquiring a young closer makes sense as a bridge to the end of the Mariano era.  Rivera's 40 and he's talked of retirement when his contract expires after this year.  Plus, Joba has struggled and no longer seems a worthy heir to the throne.

In the playoffs, the Yankees will essentially need only two good relievers.  But they have a significant void behind Rivera, and Bailey can fill the 8th inning role now and the closer role when Rivera fades into the sunset. 

For the A's, the appeal of Montero is obvious:  He's a consensus top 10 minor-league prospect, and in my opinion, the last elite obtainable minor-league hitter*.  We know he's obtainable because he's been offered in three other deals (Soria, Lee, Halladay).  But despite his defensive warts, he's really special.  At 20 years old, he's the second-youngest hitter in the pitcher-friendly International League, and yet he's put up a .274/.349/.459 (.808) line. 

Acquiring Montero makes much more sense, however, if Carter can stick in left field.  If he can, here's your lineup in 3 years (in my opinion, this is when the A's are a playoff team again, in 2013-2014:

C:  Suzuki/Donaldson
1b:  Barton
2b:  Weeks/Rosales
SS:  Pennington/Green
3b:  Cardenas/Rosales
LF:  Carter
CF:  Choice
RF:  Taylor
DH:  Montero

The outfield defense won't be "plus" by any means, but I don't think it will be as bad as some might think.  We're talking about three very good athletes in their mid-20s.  They aren't statues.  If they take pride in what they're doing out there and put in the work, they can be true talent -5's at their respective positions.  And the infield and catching defense is still very good in that group.  And man, could that team hit (finally!).  And the entire offense would be making less than $15M million, which is good, because our young starting pitchers will be getting expensive by then. 

Look how right-handed that lineup is.  All the more reason to keep Barton, and to hope that Cardenas can pan out.

*I've scoured every prospect list.  The theme you see is that a lot of great young hitting prospects have been promoted this year (Santana, Posey, etc.), and there's a vacuum of good hitting prospects at the high levels of MiLB right now.  BA's Mid-Season Top 25 list included about 20 pitchers.  The teams that are fortunate to have 1-2 elite hitting prospects are seemingly all non-contenders, or perpetually low-budget teams that wouldn't realistically give up that elite hitting prospect in a win-now move.  The only guy who fits is Montero, thanks to his parent club's huge resources and willingness to move him. 

So...would you do the trade?  Please vote in the poll and discuss below.