16 Still In The Thick Of It, Surprises A-Plenty
by Nico on Jul 17, 2010 10:13 AM PDT
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PrintWith the second-half of the season underway and the trade deadline looming, here are some facts and thoughts about the pennant races around baseball...
16 of the 30 teams are within 5.5 games of 1st place.
13 of these teams are within 3.5 games of 1st place.
The Atlanta Braves, with a 5 game lead on the Mets, have the biggest margin of any division leader.
Sadly, the A's are not among these 16 teams, though they join Boston as "next tier" teams who aren't within 5.5 games of their division but aren't quite out of it either.
Speaking of the Red Sox, now 6.5 games out and stuck in 3rd place under a system that has not yet adopted the "wild card's wild card," can I take just a modicum of joy in the fact that not one, but two, players -- Adrian Beltre and Marco Scutaro -- shunned Oakland for Boston and cited "a chance to win now" as factoring into their decision?
Don't get me wrong, I don't blame either one. I love, and will always love, Scutaro and he was right: If you want a chance to win, now and each year upcoming, Boston is simply your better bet. And Beltre decided to take a one-year "build your value" deal in a strong hitter's park, rather than accept a multi-year contract after a down year, and he is having a terrific season that should land him a better multi-year deal than he would have accepted from the A's last Winter.
So both did what they did without it really being a knock on the A's so much as a smarter decision for them at this point in their career. That doesn't stop me from smiling when I think they may well be watching the playoffs from the couch this year.
My other thought relates to the NL West, where it's fascinating to try to predict who will actually prevail in a topsy-turvy division the Padres have led for most of the year and in which the Giants are in 4th place but just 3.5 out and looking bullish while the Rockies and Dodgers are poised to make legitimate pushes as well.
I get that the Padres have thrived on the strength of their pitching, but you know what? They may actually have the worst rotation of the four teams. Mat Latos is a stud, no question, but after that...Jon Garland? Clayton Richard? Wade LeBlanc? Kevin Correia? Seriously? This is better than Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Barry Zito, Madison Bumgarner, and Jonathan Sanchez? Or Ubaldo Jimenez, Aaron Cook, Jorge De La Rosa (back today), Jhoulys Chacin, and Jason Hammel? Or Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Vicente Padilla, and Hiroki Kuroda?
As I see it, the Padres have the weakest rotation to go with the weakest offense, so I'm picking them to finish 4th when it's all said and done. My best guess?
Rockies
Giants
Dodgers
Padres
If you're bold and like making predictions you can look back on and go, "Aw crap, that's in writing?" add your guess in this thread and say why. This is going to be one fun division to watch. And major kudos to Bud Black for keeping the Padres on top so long, no matter what happens from here on out. He should be Manager of the Year -- as should "we coulda had him" Ron Washington, just for being the manager when Bengie Molina hit for the cycle.
Chez Nico today! Ballgame at 4:10pm followed by the systematic grilling and devouring of dead animals. For all you NRAFs and "can't make its," we'll take pictures and convey the magic through fanpost. Meanwhile, the A's have a pennant race to get back into. First goal: Become the 17th team to creep to within 5.5 games of the top...
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Don't be such Ynoa et al. -- oblique
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 17, 2010 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions
The Padres rotation is very good
As you said, Latos is a stud, but LeBlanc and Richard are also very solid, young pitchers. LeBlanc’s peripherals (6.1 K/9, 3.4 K/9) aren’t great but suggest that even after regression he’s still pretty good, and Richard’s peripherals (7.1 K/9, 3.6 BB/9) are damn solid, so he shouldn’t regress much at all. One thing you are overlooking is the Padre’s bullpen, which is absolutely dominant. The Padres will win almost every close game that is decided in later innings, as they can turn to so many dominant options.
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Just for fun
Latos is actually holding hitters to a lower OPS on the road this year, he’s awfully good for 22.
But yeah, be wary of declaring any Padres pitcher “solid” no matter age or numbers. Their park is to pitching as to Denver was to hitting in the mid 90s. Every person who plays there is going to have a career year that they will be unable to replicate elsewhere. I’m sure you will find similar numbers for the bullpen too. They need about 2 more Adrian Gonzalez’s to be seen as a legit force.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
We're holding this boat together with duct tape and dreams, people!
Surprise us, A’s! Let’s turn this season around!
Green and Gold Lantern Corps
I believe in the boys of the green and gold!
Zooey Deschanel!
Cluck 'em all and let the Chick sort 'em out - DMOAS
by ChickenStanley on Jul 17, 2010 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions
I believe in du t
"Are those new tarps? Or did they paint 'em?" Mark Ellis
by Berry Jo on Jul 17, 2010 1:42 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Grrrrrrr stupid phone keyboard
I believe in duct tape !
"Are those new tarps? Or did they paint 'em?" Mark Ellis
by Berry Jo on Jul 17, 2010 1:43 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
SO we really DO see the other side of Berry Jo!
I don’t wanna know who you use that duct tape on!
Zooey Deschanel!
Cluck 'em all and let the Chick sort 'em out - DMOAS
by ChickenStanley on Jul 17, 2010 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm thinking
Rockies
Dodgers
Padres
Giants
But I don’t really care since the A’s aren’t involved.
Don't be such Ynoa et al. -- oblique
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 17, 2010 11:12 AM PDT reply actions
I think the Giants are in pretty good shape,
with Posey added to the lineup and Bumgarner added to the rotation.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
In one million simulations of the rest of the season,
The A’s have a 6% chance of making the playoffs, and the Red Sox have a 35% chance.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Jul 17, 2010 11:25 AM PDT reply actions
"So you say there's a chance?!"
Remember me sometime when I am far away/and I will try and do the same/Maybe just like you someday I will forget/every hit song America ever had -- Yo La Tengo, "Lewis"
by Ray of Lite on Jul 17, 2010 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions
Keeps fluctuating.
It was 5% before the ASG. It was 7% after the ASG. It’s 6% after we win our first game after the ASG.
by JonathanNathan on Jul 17, 2010 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions
With all of these wild fluctuations, I say it's probably more like 40% we get in
"I've made a huge little mistake." - G.O.B.
I reread the whole post two more times looking for that
before I remembered to check the caption.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: A’s (can’t help it; I’d pick them to win March Madness if I could)
AL Wild Card: Rays
NL East: Braves
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Giants
NL Wild: Dodgers
by JonathanNathan on Jul 17, 2010 11:40 AM PDT reply actions
Over looking one player who will be traded
Jack Cust will be gone soon. Why do you ask? First no arbitration for him this year. Second he will not resign with the A’s because of the demotion earlier this year. Third there are a few teams needing a PH/4th outfield type. my best guess is him going to the yanks. The need is there and his power numbers will jump with a short right field.
I'd be sad to see Cust go
since he’s the A’s best hitter, but a team that already has slugging from other positions than DH can benefit even more from his big OBP. And his own slugging improves in most other ball parks.
by A's Believer on Jul 17, 2010 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions
what are you talking about?
Cust could have gone to ANY team last year and NONE were interested…. or at least for the price he wanted. Clearly he is having a much better year at the plate this year BUT at the sacrifice of power which is why he is in there for the A’s at DH.
A 4th OF… come on. he is a poor outfielder even on a good day.
by heartstopper on Jul 17, 2010 7:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Here's what I'm looking for:
AL West: A’s
AL Central: don’t care
AL East: don’t care
AL wild card: don’t care
NL West: don’t care
NL Central: don’t care
NL East: don’t care
NL Wild Card: don’t care
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
by iglew on Jul 17, 2010 2:18 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
you forgot
ALDS: A’s over don’t care, don’t care over don’t care
NLDS: don’t care over don’t care, don’t care over don’t care
ALCS: A’s over don’t care
NLCS: don’t care over don’t care
World Series: A’s over don’t care!
by colin on Jul 17, 2010 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'd put the NL West on whoever does the best job for themselves at the trade deadline
As much as the Padres are overachieving, we’ve all seen overachieving teams make it to the playoffs. Or teams go on hotstreaks and make it in. Oh, yeah, and defense, something a few other NL West teams don’t really get.
It might come down to another Blake/Santana + money type deal.
Whoever brings in the best player(s) wins IMO.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
I just want the team to take a step forward from the torpor of the last few seasons
and finish at .500 or better, which seems possible.
82-80 would be big progress IMO, and I’d go into hibernation for the winter happy if that were the record. The Athletics need to set that goal and strive like a MF’er to achieve it, IMO.
Of course, if some ridiculous Rangers flop and a stagnant Halos squad just wanna hand over the division, I’d not kick an AL West crown out of bed in 2010… I’m just not expecting it, yet.
2011 I expect more… like, at least the division title more.
Hello, I'm Vince Cotroneo for the Marmaduke B. Mushmouth School of Public Speaking...
Yay! 82-80!
Screw the draft. I want the A’s to draft 16th.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
for me
life goes in steps, and the 82-80 of 2010 is mere prelude to the 92-70 of 2011 and the 98-64 of 2012.
Hello, I'm Vince Cotroneo for the Marmaduke B. Mushmouth School of Public Speaking...
reply fail-o-licious to iggy
Hello, I'm Vince Cotroneo for the Marmaduke B. Mushmouth School of Public Speaking...
by emperor nobody on Jul 17, 2010 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions
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