Rajai Davis, Carlos Gonzalez, and one fans' wavering faith in the organization...
by ChadGod on Jul 11, 2010 7:11 PM PDT
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PrintI have been an A's fan my whole life, never switching allegiances despite logistical barriers because I identified with the philosophy and story of the organization...but I'm having my doubts now. Our organization seems to know nothing about developing hitters, at least without the help of steroids...
I certainly wouldn't claim to be anything more than a casual A's fan at this point because the organization really irks me right now. Hindsight is 20/20, but virtually all of the most respected and knowledgeable ANers were dead certain that the Holliday deal was a mistake and wow was it ever...if we had Carlos Gonzalez in our lineup right now who knows where we would be.
Mistakes happen, the A's broke stride and made one, I can forgive them for that, but it appears our scouting ability on hitters has been fundamentally flawed for quite some time now, we just cannot draft them and even when we acquire them we seem to use, abuse, and throw away.
The latest such mistake is the ridiculous platooning of one Rajai Davis, please destroy me and explain to me what Im not seeing and restore my faith:
I know Rajai Davis is not Carlos Gonzalez and never will be. I know what he did last year was probably his peak level of performance and then some. I know many of you will think Im writing this because of his huge game yesterday....but why the *#*@ would the organization not play this guy every single day when we have no potential super-stars to put out there in his place AND for a team that has been a seller the last few years why oh why would we sit a player that if he were to perform would be an extremely valuable trade piece, relative to our other outfielders at least.
Even though I understand full-well the limitations of speed versus power, certain teams still appear not to so there must be PLENTY of teams out there would want a top caliber speedster in their lineup if he were performing pretty well, and he is not that far off from doing so. Regardless of his actual contribution I would argue that a "hot" Rajai Davis would be a more valuable trade chip than any of our other junk outfielders...so why oh why would we not put him out there every single day?
Playing everyday is paramount to the success of some types of athletes and Rajai is definitely one of those guys. I think many of us are hoping and believing he will be played everyday from here on out, but I still have my doubts. Id rather throw Rajai out there even hitting .220 with no walks just to see if he can click because if he does then at least we would have something. No one is going to want Crisp, Gross...while Sweeney is in the same boat as Davis - at least they put him out there everyday.
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Carlos Gonzalez is batting .266/.287/.405 on the road this season and hit .263/.344/.467 on the road last season. He had 28 walks in 317 PA last season and he’s had 15 walks in 342 PA this season.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Jul 11, 2010 7:27 PM PDT reply actions
Exactly
Put some of our guys in Coors Field, and their numbers would look really nice too. Like you said, his plate discipline is not good.
And you really think he won't develop that?
I think itll be easy when they stop throwing him many strikes.
Chad Gaud really blows now, sad.
No, actually.
It will be much harder. Pitchers are going to start throwing him slop outside the zone, and based on his ridiculous swing% numbers, he’ll swing and miss on all of it. He really strikes me as the next Jeff Francoeur.
She lives by the wall, and waits by the door.
She walks in the sun, to me.
Actually, let me update that.
He really strikes me as the next Pablo Sandoval.
She lives by the wall, and waits by the door.
She walks in the sun, to me.
Definitely possible
Either way, if he had him right now we could trade him for a boatload and THAT is the over-arching point.
Chad Gaud really blows now, sad.
If we had him now
he would almost certainly not be putting up the same numbers he is putting up now, therefor it is very unlikely he would return as much as you think in a trade.
This.
The same goes for Ethier, who isn’t playing in a huge hitters park like Coors, but IS playing in the NL (and unlike Gonzalez, who has a ton of defensive value, Ethier plays the outfield like his last name is Cust).
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jul 12, 2010 7:11 AM PDT up reply actions
and is getting progressively worse in the field
If I were a Dodgers fan, I’d be worried about this trend, and selling high on him to an AL team before he’s widely exposed as DH only.
If the Dodgers are smart (they’re not), they trade him in the offseason for a HUGE prospect haul, to an AL team that can switch him between the OF and DH. An AL team can take the risk, an NL team probably shouldn’t.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
It seems like
you guys are saying these things because you want to find a flaw to validate the fact that we traded him for Holliday, who didnt work out, and then Wallace and now Taylor, who is struggling.
The fact of the matter is that CarGon is better than any outfielder we have right now, both offensively and defensively.
Swing%, K/BB rates, etc, can only do so much. A player can have some horrible sabermetric stats, but if he hes helping his team win, then he has a lot of value.
2010 WAR numbers:
Davis: .3
Sweeney: .5
Gross: -.1
Crisp: .8
Gonzalez: 2.2
Its not even close
Work as if everything depends on you and Pray knowing that everything depends on God. - Michael Taylor
by supermarc589 on Jul 12, 2010 10:05 PM PDT up reply actions
He knows how to help a team win in the incredibly unusual atmosphere of Coors Field
There isn’t much evidence that he’s particularly good at helping a team win elsewhere, especially in a pitchers park like the Coliseum.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
He would be
much better than anyone we have right now.
Put Sweeney, Rajai, and Crisp WAR numbers together, and he still has a higher number. Basically, Carlos Gonzalez is worth more than our whole outfield put together.
I’m not saying he would be great if he were still on the team, but rather he is better than anything we have now I’m just tired of hearing everyone bash him and come up with excuses for his success just because the trade didnt work out for us.
Work as if everything depends on you and Pray knowing that everything depends on God. - Michael Taylor
by supermarc589 on Jul 13, 2010 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions
I think the point is that while yes, our OF sucks so bad that
Gonzalez would be an upgrade, nonetheless he is a highly flawed player whose numbers only look decent because of the remarkably friendly hitter’s park in which he plays half his games.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Go look at Jason Giambi's 2010 numbers
compare them to his 2009 Oakland numbers. Or look at his numbers over the last 3 years in the AL.
NL West, anyone?
I mean, Chris Denorfia’s got a roster spot in San Diego. It’s the NL.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
NL West. So you have face, the most often, who...
Lincecum, Cain, Jimenez, Cook, Latos, Billingsley, Kerfeld…
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
It seems like a lot of people on this site have gone to great lengths to
whitewash the trading away of Carlos Gonzalez and Andre Ethier, for some reason.
It’d be a lot easier if we just admitted they were reasonable trades at the time and still are instead of trying to tear down Gonzalez/Ethier. We can’t just magically wave away Gonzalez’s home statistics. They actually happened. In the same park where Troy Tulowitzki and Ian Stewart have worse slugging percentages than on the road.
“Andre Ethier plays in the NL” isn’t a good counterargument to the fact that he’s a good hitter, either.
The trades were reasonable at the time for a lot of various reasons. “Andre Ethier and Carlos Gonzalez aren’t that good anyway” is not one of those reasons.
the oakland athletics: hittin' ain't easy
by walk off bunt on Jul 12, 2010 8:21 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
this
I just dislike when people elevate Gonzalez and Ethier to savior-like status, as if they would’ve saved the A’s from this mediocrity and that they’re two of the best players in baseball. They’re not. The A’s would be better with those two, but they wouldn’t necessarily be leading the division or in the running for a playoff berth.
They would not necessarily be as good in the AL as they are now, because there is a discrepancy between NL and AL.
I did not like the Holliday trade when it happened. Losing Gonzalez is going to hurt, that’s a near fact. I did like the Ethier/Bradley trade when it happened.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
Right
The fetishization of Gonzalez and Ethier is silly. But the backlash against it can be just as silly itself sometimes.
They’re both good baseball players. Meticulously pointing out their flaws to bring them down a peg or two does not change that. It just distracts from the real argument to be made, which is that the trades that sent them out had very justifiable merits to them in the first place, and ALSO that, yes, given how they’ve since developed, it’s very reasonable to conclude that there were some shortcomings by Beane in making those deals.
Not everything is win/lose, black/white.
the oakland athletics: hittin' ain't easy
by walk off bunt on Jul 12, 2010 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Basically they're both good baseball players who would probably be doing worse here, but still better than others we've got right now
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I don't know about this
It really depends on a couple things.
1) How much of a penalty you’d apply for the league switch (seems half a win is standard)
2) How much you think all the A’s OFs have actually become worse at defense this year (I think it’s not at all).
1 is fairly straightforward and you agree or you don’t. As for 2, well, Sweeney went from great defensively to bad defensively according to Fangraphs UZR. Same for Davis. If those guys are at their usual defensive numbers (or for Sweeney, just not almost 3 wins BELOW his numbers from last year), they’re likely just as good if not better players because Ethier is really as bad as Cust on defense. He gives away a whole lot of what he provides.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jul 12, 2010 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions
That's the problem with UZR
You’re picking and choosing now. Ethier is very definitely bad, but really HOW bad? He was still a 3 1/2 win player in 08 when it was only at -8.
And if you’re going to get Sweeney to Gonzalez or Ethier’s level, you have to believe his true talent lies in between his 08 and 09 numbers and not his 08 and 10 numbers, which are a lot closer. And Rajai has a long, detailed career of not being anywhere near there.
Flashfire’s comment seems absolutely reasonable. The flip on either side of that, that these guys are bonafide All-Stars who would solve all our problems, or that they’re no better than Sweeney or Davis anyway, both seem like wishful thinking.
the oakland athletics: hittin' ain't easy
by walk off bunt on Jul 12, 2010 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Fucking rec'd.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jul 12, 2010 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't think Gonzalez or Ethier are special players
But I don’t think the Holliday trade was reasonable. I do think the Ethier one was not just reasonable, but good.
Still, there’s a lot of evidence to suggest both players are not nearly as good (especially Ethier) as common perception. I don’t think it’s “backlash” to point that out. Pointing out the pretty obvious flaws in both guys to those who think the A’s would be 89-0 if they were still around makes a lot of sense to me.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jul 12, 2010 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions
But that's what I mean when I say people go to great lengths to bring them down
You have to really construct the argument against these guys. I’m not saying it isn’t there, or that there isn’t validity to it, but it generally requires you to A) Wipe away Gonzalez’s home stats and B) Take Ethier’s UZR as gospel.
I’m a lot more willing to accept B than A, but even with B, a common argument last year was “Ethier isn’t even better than Sweeney.”
Now Sweeney’s UZR has fell off a cliff, and Ethier still is something like a consistent 3-WAR player. Arguing Ethier and Gonzalez wouldn’t be the cure-all (they wouldn’t be, obviously) is one thing, it’s the marginalization of them as ballplayers that strikes me as weird, and gives me urge to speak up.
Where one side wants to make them out to be like Ruth and Gehrig, the other seems hell-bent on turning them into, well, Ryan Sweeney and Rajai Davis. And neither side really gets to the truth.
the oakland athletics: hittin' ain't easy
by walk off bunt on Jul 12, 2010 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions
my issue with Davis not playing
has less to do with his skill level, which admittedly fluctuates from the occasional Willie Mays/Rickey Henderson Total Game Takeover and Basepath Mayhem (last night) to the more regular variety, where every time he hits the ball in the air you wanna poke him with a pointed stick or make him get down and give you 50 (with claps).
My issue is how he fits into the overall strategy or tone-of-emphasis for the organization: I don’t see how, despite his limitations, he isn’t in there every day simply because he is one of the fastest players in MLB and when he’s in there and on base his style is right out of the Small Ball Textbook (Billy Martin, Drunken Hayride Press, 1981, $14.95). I am a big believer in James Brown’s admonition that “You gotta use whatcha got to get whatcha want,” so the organization claiming that the 2010 A’s are all about manufacturing runs, taking the extra base, stealing, and all that and then not having your fastest and most explosive player in that regard on the field more than once every 10 days seems disingenuous and insincere.
I am all for the small ball approach until Carter and Taylor can arrive to hit baseballs over the BART bridge, but until then if the approach management believes in is the pesky small ball way then we have to have our most ignition-friendly dude out there on a more consistent basis. I need to see Raj and Coco Crisp in the lineup and dare I say Rosales too… at this point I am for giving Sweeney more knee-rest in the 2nd half and putting an OF of Rosales-Crisp-Davis out there a few times a week (with AR spelling Ellis, Kouz and Pennington the other times, and ever Barton on occasion) if that’s what it takes to ignite the manufacturing-runs philosophy as more than just words… I think if those three can be in there more often than not we will stay truer to the stated approach going in and have greater success in the 2nd half.
Hello, I'm Vince Cotroneo for the Marmaduke B. Mushmouth School of Public Speaking...
For me, it's got a lot more to do with who they play ahead of him
Conor Jackson? He’d have to be healthy first, but at least he’s a fairly good baseball player. I could live with that.
Gabe Gross? Don’t make me laugh.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Gabe Gross is the new really shitty veteran who Bob Geren inexplicably loves to play.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jul 12, 2010 7:12 AM PDT up reply actions
I really cannot stand Ryan Sweeney's game
He belongs on a team with sluggers at 1B, 2B, SS, 3B & C. He doesnt mesh with these hitters we have.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
At this point, I'm cool with shopping him and Ellis and see what we can get
I know Ellis is better defensively than Rosales (shoveling that ball to Penny inexplicably yesterday is an example of that), but he’s got way better offensive ability. If Rosales played every day, he might have 12 HR by now. He’d have about 80 K’s, too, but hey — can’t be too picky.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!! - danmerqury
by cuppingmaster on Jul 12, 2010 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Rosales is on the same HR/PA pace as Suzuki, so yeah.
We really need his bat in the lineup. He should be playing every day. There has to be at least one player per game out of Ellis, Pennington, Kouzmanoff, Rajai, Gross, Crisp, and Sweeney that could sit for him.
by JonathanNathan on Jul 16, 2010 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Sweeney and Jackson
…should platoon in RF.
Rajai and Coco in LF and CF every day.
Gross? Pinch hitter.
by HCF from Oakball on Jul 12, 2010 10:03 PM PDT up reply actions
The only problem with that
is that I don’t think you can hide Conor Jackson in RF. If you could, I would agree totally with this.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
Well, lets just get rid of him...
…because otherwise he’s just worthless.
by HCF from Oakball on Jul 13, 2010 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions
Actually...
Both of them. Sweeney and Jackson. They can both hit the bricks.
by HCF from Oakball on Jul 13, 2010 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions
...or at least slap them the other way.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Just as somebody posted earlier in the year....
Rajai is probably the biggest key to our offense. When he is on, he gets on base and 9-10 times he steals a base (second or third, and very rarely does he ever get thrown out stealing third). Obviously, this leads to more run production (well we have all seen our share of bases loaded and no runs scored, but lets ignore that). I do believe that Rajai has the ability to hit 275-280, but walks i don’t know about. And as many posters have said, what good is it to keep rolling out Gabe Gross everyday, or even Connor Jackson to an extent, when Rajai has more talent than both of them
Go A's!!!
I'd keep rolling him out there if it's between him and Gross.
I don’t have a whole lot of faith that he’ll ever develop into a league average, everyday player though. His low walk rate means he has to hit for a pretty high average in order to sustain a decent OBP. With his speed, that’s not impossible, but when he’s striking out/popping out/flying out half the time, his speed can only help him so much. UZR doesn’t suggest his defense is as good as it could be with his speed, but that’s in a SSS.
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
+1
Excellent post OP.
I don’t think any of us were expecting him to hit 310 again, but 270, 50SB and good (but not great) defense. I don’t see anything to suggest that’s not obtainable. He is streaky no doubt about it, but then so is Suzuki.
vs. Connor Jackson, I think you can make the argument (though I don’t agree with it) for benching him, vs. Gross and random people named Matt I just don’t understand.
What’s more it’s one of the few freekin exciting things I look for in this team of no power. When I’m at a game, it’s actually Rajai’s at bat that I make sure I don’t miss by being in the restroom, buying food, etc.
Ya, not even factoring in the excitement....
but he is very exciting and this game is ultimately a business so that makes it even more dumb-founding.
Chad Gaud really blows now, sad.
The team shouldn't factor in excitement. At all.
Winning brings fans tenfold over “exciting.” If Rajai is helping the team win, it could result in more ticket sales. If he’s just making people go “oooh,” well, I don’t think stolen bases ever sold tickets.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jul 12, 2010 7:14 AM PDT up reply actions
A player like Rajai can ignite an offense, though.
It’s one of the intangibles that I would argue can’t be measured, or at best can only be measured crudely with such dubious situational and correlational (not necessarily causal) statistics as what a team’s record is with a player vs. without him. But when guys like Adam Rosales or Rickey Henderson (not meaning to compare them statistically, just in terms of their approaches to playing the game) are in a lineup, you can feel and see the shift in how the team plays. They bring an excitement to the game that I do think should be factored in; not so much in terms of what it means to fans, but what it means to players.
I’ll argue till the cows come home that Rajai has the potential to be a Rickey Henderson. Rickey’s lifetime average was .279, and there aren’t a lot of outlier seasons tainting that career figure. Sure, those last few seasons weren’t stellar, but he wasn’t getting a lot of PAs/ABs in those seasons anyway.
The point is, Rickey’s season-by-season numbers don’t look unattainable for a player like Rajai. What makes Rickey amazing is that he did it for 25 seasons and probably could have done it even longer if teams would have taken a chance on him and let him find a groove. Is anyone going to argue that Rajai Davis, with his speed and (at times) prodigious hitting capability, couldn’t steal 40-60 bags a year and be a .279 hitter for quite a few seasons?
The only criticism that is leveld at Rajai over and over again is that he’s impatient. This is not a small issue; indeed, I would say that it is the major difference between Rajai and Rickey. For all of his swagger, Rickey knew that a walk is a just damned fine way to get on base and manufacture a run. Rajai’s swagger seems to still be pushing him to try and make some noise to get on base. As I’ve argued before, patience is something that Rickey could teach all of these hitters, and he could certainly do it better than Skaalen has.
BOTTOM LINE! If Rajai can learn patience, he will be as close as a player can get to being the second coming of Rickey Henderson. (Also, he needs to learn a ridiculous, risky, snazzy, unique way of catching every fly ball that comes his way. I loved seeing that Snatch Catch.)
by JonathanNathan on Jul 12, 2010 7:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Addendum
The aforementioned crude, correlational, dubious statistic of the A’s record with Rajai*: 38-27. Their record without Rajai*: 5-19.
*"With Rajai" is defined as three or more plate appearances. This arbitrary distinction only underscores the crudeness of the statistic.
But still. That’s a split that gets the attention. Just sayin’.
by JonathanNathan on Jul 12, 2010 7:57 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I disagree totally with the notion that he can be Rickey
but I agree totally with the notion that he has value beyond what WAR or OBP can adequately describe, and the A’s record when he is and is not on the field is great evidence of it.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
Thank you for your well-reasoned refutation.
It’s always a pleasure with you.
by JonathanNathan on Jul 13, 2010 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions
How would patience alone make Davis as close to the second coming of Rickey as possible?
The only thing Davis really has in common with Rickey is he’s fast as hell. Rickey was much better at a few things:
- hitting
- fielding
- power
- baserunning
And much, much more overall.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Rajai is, however, learning to refer to himself in the third person.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Look at the numbers
Rickey hit .279. That’s not AT ALL unattainable for Rajai. For a community that loves to defend Jack Cust by saying he doesn’t get regular enough playing time, this community doesn’t seem at all willing to extend the same consideration to Rajai, despite the reality that it’s much more applicable. While Cust has missed relatively few games since returning to the team, Rajai has missed long stretches and has rarely been allowed to get into a consistent rhythm. On the one occasion that he was given a long stretch of time in the lineup, he produced very well. Rajai is a fine hitter. I’ll also call you’re attention to how poor Rickey’s production always became when he was in similar situations of reduced playing time.
On defense, there isn’t much data that I could find about Rickey for UZR, but Rajai hasn’t performed badly at all. I’m not sure what about his performance you’re referring to that couldn’t be fixed by small tweaks and good coaching.
Power: Rickey averaged averaged 12 homers a year, and only hit more than 20 in four seasons out of 25. I’m not sure how you’re seeing the guy as some kind of power monster. He hit 297 in his career because he played forever and he was a good hitter. He wasn’t a power hitter. Rajai doesn’t produce at even that pace, it’s true, but a big part of that is because pitchers know they don’t have to challenge him. When he learns patience, he’ll hit for better average and for better power.
Baserunning: I’ll defer to The Rickey himself on this, who believed Rajai could bag 100 steals this year. In fact, Rajai gets caught stealing much less than Rickey did.
Rajai isn’t going to BE Rickey. But he can be damn close if someone will bother to teach him the last 10% of what he needs (patience at the plate, a little defensive tweaking.)
by JonathanNathan on Jul 13, 2010 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Damn close? Hell no.
Rickey finished his career with a .279/.401/.419 line, and that’s including several years in his forties. Rajai has a career line of .277/.329/.383. That’s nowhere close. Even if you account for playing time interruptions, Rajai isn’t even a tenth of what Rickey was.
She lives by the wall, and waits by the door.
She walks in the sun, to me.
Better coaching won't be able to teach anyone 70 points of OBP (kinda of a big deal).
Rajai is more similar to guys like Michael Bourn and Alex Sanchez and Juan Pierre….those guys aren’t that uncommon.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jul 13, 2010 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Rajai Davis will never reach base at the rate Rickey did, even with improved patience
Rickey set the MLB record for walks, no less. He averaged one every 1.4 games over his career and had seven seasons over 100, all but one of those over 115.
Rajai has averaged a walk every 5.7 games. He doesn’t even have 75 walks for his CAREER yet. Even if Rajai doubles his walk rate over what it’s currently been, that’s still only one every 2.9 games, or still double what Rickey did over his entire career.
There’s no comparison with regards to their plate discipline and patience and there never will be.
They could both hit about .280 but Rickey still got on base so much more often than Davis, they’ll never be anywhere close to each other’s OBP. Rajai’s career OBP is sitting at .329. Rickey’s worst OBP in a season was .321, a 30-game season when he was 44. Rickey’s worst OBP in a season in which he played at least 100 games was .358 and he had 15 seasons with an OBP of .400 or higher and two more where he barely missed it. Wake me when Rajai even sniffs .400 once.
Rickey could hit for power whenever he wanted. There were seasons where the focus was more just getting on base and running wild, and there were seasons where he swung for the fences more. He had four seasons of 20+ homers, two with 28 each, and that’s still unprecedented out of a leadoff hitter. Rajai will probably never even hit 10 over a full season, partially because his swing just is not conducive to doing it.
There is no way in hell Rajai Davis will ever be close to the kind of player Rickey Henderson was, and it’s pretty pointless for him or anyone else to try. That doesn’t mean Davis can’t be good at what he does, though.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Cleaning up one part
Even if Rajai doubles his walk rate over what it’s currently been, that’s still only one every 2.9 games, or still twice as bad as what Rickey did over his entire career.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Jeremy Blevins is tall, lefthanded and thin, and throws kinda hard
That doesn’t mean that he can be Randy Johnson. Rajai is a 29-year-old with not much ability as a hitter, limited command of the strike zone, and very little power. He will never be anything like Rickey Henderson.
This is what Rickey had accomplished when he was the same age Rajai is now. The idea that Rajai can catch up with that, or even get remotely close, is pretty absurd. You’re comparing an intermittently useful role player to one of the dozen greatest players in major league history."And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Given Rajai's patience, the only way he sniffs a .400 OBP is if he hits .340 or so
And even that’s including a little bump up in the difference between his AVG and OBP.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Part of the problem is that people are
trying to keep comparing him to Rickey, including the organization, publicizing Rickey helping him on the bases.
Let’s be clear, there is not the slightest possibility that any of our outfielders (probably anyone on our active roster) is going to the Hall of Fame.
Rajai is far from perfect; he has brain farts on the bases, he has nowhere near enough walks, but:
1) He’s doing as we expected and will end up at .270, 50SB, and good (but not exceptional) defense
2) Apart from Crisp, the rest of our outfield would struggle to hold down a starting position in any other theam
3) Given #1 and #2, there’ no excuse for Gross or Random Matts in the outfield when Rajai is on the bench
ANY other team?
Have you really looked at the performances of every other outfield in the Majors? I don’t think that’s a claim you can back up, dude. Rajai is a classic example of a player who succeeds very well when he has real playing time.
And by the way, I was comparing him to Rickey before it was cool.
by JonathanNathan on Jul 14, 2010 1:01 AM PDT up reply actions
"any other"
may be hyperbole on my part.
But my point is let’s not build him up into something he’s not (I had no idea it was “cool” to compare him to Rickey).
He’s meeting expectations, he’s doing well for us, he should be a starter; let’s just not go over board
"cool"
was absolutely hyperbole on my part.
by JonathanNathan on Jul 14, 2010 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions
I agree with Rajai
He was struggling mightily when he started getting benched, so hopefully he’s overcome that and will put together another month comparable to what he had in May.
As for Carlos Gonzalez, I will continue with what many are saying on here: Gonzalez is benefiting better than just about anyone else because of his home field.
Away from Coors, he’s hitting like crap and is striking out at a ridiculous pace (50 K’s in 37 Games).
Somewhere I read that a poll of GMs think he’ll be a top 10 player next year, and they couldn’t be further from the truth. While he still has some great tools and could be a great player, he’s just not walking enough to continue to hit even as well as he does in Denver.
It will be really interesting to watch his development.
Shockingly, his BABIP is HIGHER away from home than at home, so those numbers could drop dramatically as he continues to struggle away from home.
Also, mind you, he plays a fair share of his games against teams in the NL West, which has some smart pitchers who are not going to make many mistakes against him the 2nd time around.
At this point, Gonzalez could quite possibly be replicating his 2008 performance with Oakland if he was still hitting here.
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
Fair points stranahanahan
My sense with Gonzalez is that he is one of those “pure hitter” types and in Moneyball the A’s preached that you couldn’t teach those guys patience but you could teach patient guys power. I think that logic was a product of the steroids era entirely and ultimately there is nothing more valuable than the ability to contact the ball the way CarGon can. Maybe he doesn’t learn patience, but maybe he becomes a light-hitting slick fielding Manny Ramirez, who never walked THAT much.
Either way, the GMs DO believe he’s a top 10 talent and theyd trade a boatload for him. Maybe that perception wouldnt be there if he were hitting in the A’s lineup…but maybe hitting against the AL West would be easier than hitting against the NL West, etc etc hypotheticals blah blah
Chad Gaud really blows now, sad.
Ok, but I think you're missing the point
that he cannot hit away from Coors Field. It’s not a matter of lineup, it’s the fact that he cannot hit in any other ballpark…
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Jul 11, 2010 11:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Car Gon
Car Gon can’t hit away from Coors? My memory takes me back to the last time the Rockies were in Oakland. Who was that guy dazzling in the field and hitting the cover off the ball? I find it interesting that a player that has the numbers Car Gon has this year “can’t hit”.
Oh for having Car Gon in the A’s outfield rather than the memory of three months of Holliday.
RAC
Or, instead of anecdotal evidence BS, you could actually LOOK at his home/road splits
Coors Field: .359/.399/.653
Everywhere else: .266/.287/.405
I mean, really. It’s not that he’s not a good player, but he’s not even CLOSE to as good as people want to make him out to be.
SIG SPACE AVAILABLE FOR SPONSORSHIP. INQUIRE WITHIN.
Well stated Mikev
For a guy with a big grill and big knife, and usually an equally big container of alcohol, you sure make some valid points.
I liked Carlos as much as we all did, but I think the fact his numbers are what they are shows that the organization evaluated his potential well and decided he was fodder not future.
"The guy was tasting himself too long to apologize."~Dallas Braden
by OptimistPrime on Jul 12, 2010 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions
The new grill is actually smaller than the BAG!
SIG SPACE AVAILABLE FOR SPONSORSHIP. INQUIRE WITHIN.
And, as was already mentioned,
that’s with a BABIP that’s higher on the road than at home.
by JonathanNathan on Jul 12, 2010 7:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Moneyball worked great in the PED era
but we can no longer “teach” power any more than we can teach patience.
by A's Believer on Jul 12, 2010 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Of course "Moneyball" has nothing to do with teaching power
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jul 12, 2010 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Gabe Gross has been a total failure.
He needs to be released asap. The only purpose he serves here is to block Rajai from playing more.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
Park effects
.294/.337/.388 .725 OPS
.266/.287/.405 .692 OPS
The first line is Gabe Gross’s road numbers this year (BA, OBA, SLG).
The second line is Carlos Gonzalez’s road numbers this year.
Carlos Gonzalez has been a worse hitter on the road this year than Gabe Gross. Just for a bit of perspective on the effect of Coors Field on his numbers (and this isn’t a argument against the point you’re making WRT Rajai, I just put the comparison here because you mentioned Gross).
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
This notion keeps cropping up in posts today
so I’ll say it here, too. Away splits are not park adjusted numbers. The A’s as a team have a higher OPS at home than they do on the road, not because of the ballpark in which they play, but because park effects are not the only reason why players perform better at home or on the road.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
This is important to keep in mind for sure.
You can’t just ignore home numbers completely. It’s important to adjust your overall evaluation of a player based on the splits though.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jul 12, 2010 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Hey, I dont like Carlos Gonzalez's flawed game, at all.
In fact, Im one of the few who supported that trade 100%.
I dont like either Gross or Cargo, I dont want either of them on my team.
-Yeah, I just posted that, but my opinion is apparently "wrong" a significant portion of the time though, so take it as you will.
And last year, he put up a .811 OPS on the road.
Small sample home/away splits really mean absolutely nothing and tell you very little about whether there’s a disparity between a player’s ability to hit home or away. These are Gonzalez’s park and league neutralized stats from baseball referece (extrapolated to a full season)
.302/.333/.514 30 home runs
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jul 12, 2010 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions
here's a better approach
that leaves a number dominated by differences between ballparks rather than home/away psychology:
A’s (Coliseum)
OPS——————2009—————2008——————2007—————2006
home:—————.736——————.689——————-.712——————.745
away: -———-.716——————.683——————-.775——————.759
Rockies (Coors Field)
OPS——————2009—————-2008—————2007——————2006
home: -———.850——————.804—————-.853——————-.825
away:—————-.718——————.699—————.730———————.724
Coors Field advantage over Coliseum:
-——————-.152 -———.099————-.186——————.115
Thus, Coors Field gives on average a 138-point edge in OPS over the Mausoleum. If we take half of this (for half of his games at Coors Field instead of the Mausoleum) off of Carlos Gonzales’ .878 we get .809, which is still better than any A’s except Jack Cust and Coco Crisp.
by A's Believer on Jul 12, 2010 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions
minor correction
.152 in the first column should be .112, the average ballpark edge is 128 points, and Gonzales’ adjusted OPS is thus .814, still higher than any A’s except Cust and Crisp.
by A's Believer on Jul 12, 2010 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Ignoring home games is cheating
How about instead adjust?
CG: 2.2 WAR, .375 wOBA
GG: -0.1 WAR, .283 wOBA
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
it's not in itself cheating
but it may be selective use of an SSS stat and it confounds ballpark effects with home/away psychology effects.
by A's Believer on Jul 12, 2010 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Um, how is that adjusting for anything when the wOBA you gave is the wOBA on Fangraphs?
The wOBA on Fangraphs is not park adjusted.
Of course, StatCorner’s adjusted wOBA for him is .368, which just doesn’t seem like it’s adjusting ENOUGH since there is such a huge disparity in his splits. I just don’t see how a 350+ point difference in splits can only be 7 points of wOBA.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jul 12, 2010 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Probably because the small sample in his splits isn't enough to drastically conclude or adjust one way or the other?
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jul 12, 2010 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions
You're right on the first part, I hadn't realized that about Fangraphs until now
I’m with lenscrafters on the second part.
A lot of players do a lot better at home, and the sample sizes are way too small.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
But 350 points is A LOT. I mean, it's a LOT.
He’s a Hall of Famer with the bat at home, and close to useless on the road. It’s not a 25 point difference here.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jul 15, 2010 8:06 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm not ignoring anything
Carlos Gonzalez is very, very productive hitting at Coors Field, where a)the outfield is huge, leaving big gaps that hitters can exploit; b) the ball carries incredibly well, turning fly outs into XBHs; c) anecdotally at least, breaking pitches don’t break very well, making them easier to hit and a less popular choice for visiting pitchers.
Hitting at Coors field, however, isn’t a particularly useful skill for a member of the Oakland A’s. On average, the situation he faces in road games is more similar to the situations he’d face if he were still on the A’s, and his track record everywhere but Coors has, overall, been really spotty. With the A’s, his home OPS was 55 points higher than his road OPS. With the Rockies, it’s been 132 and 360 points higher.
I know we’re dealing with SSS here, but the guy has a 50/5 K/BB ratio on the road this year. That’s just unbelievably awful. I’m not particularly capable of devising statistical analyses, but maybe someone who is capable can look at his Coors and everywhere-else stats this year and determine the likelihood that it’s all just random chance. If I had to guess, I’d say that he has no ability at all to recognize or hit breaking pitches; at Coors, this isn’t that much of a problem. On the road, he’s a lefthanded Bobby Crosby.
The issue isn’t, “How good a player has Carlos Gonzalez been for the Rockies?” The question is, “How good a player would Carlos Gonzalez be if he were still with the A’s?” I just don’t see very much evidence at all that he can hit much outside of Coors.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Coors is also home
If he came back/hadn’t left, the Coliseum would be home. The A’s, for example, play slightly better at home vs. away this year even though they play in one of the worst hitters parks.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Yes, and (SSS notwithstanding) his "home advantage" at the Coliseum was 55 points of OPS
Maybe it’s purely coincidental that since moving to the Rockies his “home advantage” has gone to 132 points and then 360 points. But that seems like a pretty odd coincidence to me.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Since you're not particularly capable of devising statistical analyses,
let me help: A 5/50 BB/K ratio is putridly awful!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I vote Rajai
I think Rajai has a lot of upside and should be given the same opportunity to improve with actual Major League service time just like Sweeney, Pennington, and Barton get. Are we building organically or are we not? To think we were ever going to be able to retain Holliday was ridiculous in my eyes, so obviously I want CarGon back and I know everyone is bagging on his away averages, but he’s a kid, so those could improve. Hopefully Taylor pans out and we can forget about all this someday. I know what you mean though, we need some young dynamic offensive players big time, I’m sick of seeing all these good looking young players around the league like Jason Heyward, Carlos Santana, Upton’s. Longoria, Adam Jones, Posey, etc.. Where the hell is our young stud?
Play Raj everyday
His speed changes the game around so much, even if only gets on base once, the opposing pitcher is constantly thinking in the back of their head how much of a threat he is to steal. He also turns infield outs into singles like no one else (maybe Coco) can do. And even with all of his power limitations he is still putting up better power numbers than Conor Jackson, who’s hitting .245 with 1 HR (even Rajai has 3 HRs) is slugging .327. Rajai is slugging .372 and okay, hes played 19 more games than Jackson has but honestly this guy’s speed and skills he demonstrated all of last year and the first few months this year when Coco was injured might have wanted the club to show a little loyalty. Also, hitting for power is the WEAKEST part of Rajai’s game and yet he still has Conor Jackson beat and plays a gold glove-caliber OF where ever Geren might decide to play him and he covers the most ground of any OFer with his super-human speed. His base stealing ability also constantly gives hitters behind the opportunity to drive runners in scoring position in, as he is constantly advancing and if Geren played him every single day, there is no doubt in my mind he’d be leading the American League in SBs and not Juan Pierre (getting a little old for this, isn’t he). Bottomline, Rajai Davis should be playing everyday, no questions asked, hes a pleasure for the fans to watch on the basepaths (when he gets on) and is a terror on the opposing defense and pitching staff.
Not gold glove caliber
I’m a big Raj fan (and agree he should play everyday), but gold glove caliber he is not. I think you only need to look at CoCos defense, and see he is in a different league.
His defense is certainly at the average to above-average level, but Tori Hunter he is not.
Raj needs to play because he makes things happen; let’s not exaggerate the case.
Golden Spikes?
Sorry I just love Rajai so much (favorite Athletics player) maybe got a little carried away, but he is definetely head and shoulders above Jackson and Gross, who was supposedly brought in for his glove…. And i wasn’t comparing him to Crisp, I understand there is a gap there, but I don’t like Coco for the singular reason of taking away playing time from Rajai. I’ll tone down my tendency to blow things out of proportions but realize I only do it out of my desire to make my hero Mr. Davis look good
by GrantGreen13 on Jul 12, 2010 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Hi ChadGod
I like your post, you should do it more often!
Everyday Rajai!
"The guy was tasting himself too long to apologize."~Dallas Braden
Are we bringing Everyday Eddie to the A's as well now
Gotta have our share of Everydays.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
Thanks this is probably the first post people havent shit on me for...
Im a little irritated that everyone is talking about F-ing Cargon though in here. That was just a minor point in my post, WTF people – talk about Rajai.
Chad Gaud really blows now, sad.
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