A's Fourth Loss In A Row Is The Most Painful
And...just when you thought you were resigned to the season being over, the A's have a moment--and come back from not one, not two, but three deficits against the Angels, inspiring--dare I say it?--something like hope in the heart of A's fans everywhere. And just as quickly, the small flicker of hope is dashed out; replaced by the familiar numbness of yet another loss as the A's cannot come back the fourth time, and finally lose 6-5.
The A's fell behind in the very first inning as the first batter of the game barely beat out a bunt to get on base. This, of course, was later followed by an Angels' homerun. Get used to that. The first homer was Abreu's and it staked the Angels to an early 2-0 lead.
The A's showed some grit and moxie as they tied the game on a Gabe Gross double and a Coco Crisp groundout in the third. The Angels would take the 3-2 lead on a sac fly in the sixth, but the A's came right back; tying the game on a homerun of their own courtesy of Jack Cust.
Pineiro and Mazzaro traded places through seven strong innings, both allowing the three runs (Mazzaro allowed only four hits, but walked three; Pineiro allowed eight hits, but didn't walk a batter). Mazzaro pitched a great game, even striking out five batters, but although the A's kept him off the hook for a loss, they couldn't get him the win.
Coco Crisp nearly gave the A's the lead in the seventh, but much like this season, the ball fell about a foot short and he was stranded at third after his two-out triple. Disaster struck the A's in the eighth inning with the score tied at 3, when Abreu beat out an infield single with two outs. You guessed it; the Angels hit another homerun. This one was Torii Hunter's, and it gave the Angels a 5-3 lead. Game over, right?
Not quite yet. The A's made it interesting; tying the game at 5 in the bottom of the eighth on a Swouble, a Suzuki single, and a Kouz double. Gabe Gross struck out to end the inning, and strand the go-ahead run at third base.
Bailey came in and pitched an almost-perfect ninth inning, and you sensed that if the A's should win, they should do it then. Unfortunately, the A's sense of timing was all off, and they went 1, 2, 3 in the bottom of the ninth. Bailey threw a second inning and the A's paid dearly for it. The Angels would homer again; this time the damage would be done by Erick "Yes, this is my third homerun of the season, why do you ask" Aybar.
The A's would send up Matt Carson (Sweeney), Kurt Suzuki, and Adam Rosales (Cust) against Fuentes in the tenth, trying to comeback one last time, but it went as well as you could imagine. That is; 1, 2, 3. Game over.
If you're looking for silver linings, a) the game was exciting b) every starter had at least one hit (with the glaring #2 hole exception of Barton and his 0-5, including a rally-killing fielder's choice with a runner at third and one out in the fifth) and c) Mazzaro pitched very well.
Other than that, it was a horribly painful loss. But tomorrow is a new day and Kazmir is pitching. Let's see if Sheets can get us a win.
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Zooey Deschanel!
Cluck 'em all and let the Chick sort 'em out - DMOAS
by ChickenStanley on Jul 10, 2010 12:26 AM PDT up reply actions
Thanks for the excellent recap, baseballgirl
The game reminded of Whack-a-Mole, with the A’s getting pounded down every time they tried to get back in it.
Remember me sometime when I am far away/and I will try and do the same/Maybe just like you someday I will forget/every hit song America ever had -- Yo La Tengo, "Lewis"
I wish I were going tomorrow, giant slide or no giant slide
But I hope everyone has a great time, and that the A’s cap it off with a win.
Remember me sometime when I am far away/and I will try and do the same/Maybe just like you someday I will forget/every hit song America ever had -- Yo La Tengo, "Lewis"
by Ray of Lite on Jul 10, 2010 12:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Is there any other manager who would pinch-hit for his #3 batter?
This may have been stated already and seem like piling on, but how do you PH Matt Carson for Ryan Sweeney?
by CarneyLansfordFan on Jul 10, 2010 12:39 AM PDT reply actions
another silver lining was some slugging
4 doubles, a triple and a homer.
Geren
Geren is probably a good baseball man, maybe a good Bench Coach, but not a major league manager, period!!!
He is always running scared, i.e. the Deer-in-the-Headlights nickname. I have a feeling that his coachs barely utter a word to the contrary of what he decides, knowing how close Geren is to BB. It just is not a good situation.
Fear and Loathing on Hegenberger Road
That we are headed for a pretty sad bottom if this keeps up. What I see is a franchise at war with itself at several different levels… something so unaccountably mediocre that it makes me almost need to look away in revulsion. It’s not even the losing: this is how "rebuilding" — or at least what we have been sold as "rebuilding" by an ownership team that you could argue can barely conceal its outright contempt anymore for the very customers that make up its (dwindling by the hour) fan base — goes. You have your glaring weaknesses exposed in the most painful ways and that is what makes them available to be repaired and turned into the eventual strengths you will need to become competitive and even elite again.
No, it isn’t the losing. We play these teams like the Yankees and the Angels and you see, just on the sheer talent disparity on the field (and even the in quantity of legitimate All-Star representatives), what the likely outcome of competition with them will be in the vast majority of the games head-to-head. So it isn’t the losing but the sort of outward tolerance of the ongoing mechanisms that have put the thing into borderline-laughingstock status in just 4 short years. Because good and sound business strategy and implementation does not tolerate this kind of ongoing malaise: it makes changes and it makes them proactively and emphatically or it is out on its ass, unless there are no legitimate structures of oversight or overarching accountability in proper place to assure a flow of continuity that might pass for a business practice that wishes and even demands itself to be taken at all seriously.
To whit: the medical staff that simply cannot demonstrate the kind of pro-active excellence a franchise needs to be competitive in this cutthroat business called Major League Baseball, and which instead allows players to police their own training regimens 1/2 of the time and micromanages and babies them like Junior High School players the other half. And which has, on multiple occasions, failed not just to keep players vital to the success of the organization healthy but has in certain cases outright injured them with further and ineffective medical diagnoses and implementation of those diagnoses
To whit: the field manager who has followed 8 years of unprecedented success under other managers with four years and counting of the most ridiculous decision-making perhaps ever seen on a professional sports field or court of any type, to the point where things cross over from the mere momentary frustration endemic to any long season and into a situation where the players he needs to believe in the capacities of his leadership abilities are instead quoted saying things time and again that prove beyond any ability to gloss it over or cover it up that he has lost them and their respect completely and irrevocably.
To whit: the GM who once was as competent and innovative as any in his position in any sport worldwide, who has seemingly lost all ability to act in any way other than one which demonstrates that his level of passion and interest in continuing his legacy of (now distant) excellence has waned to the point where it is no longer distinguishable, even at the baseline required for the patrons of the endeavor — the fans — to believe he is acting as anything but an inert placeholder for the impending move of the team away to wherever it is going.
To whit: the ownership group which dares to take the luxury tax money — allegedly sums to be utilized to create and sustain a level of product excellence for the smaller-market teams commensurate with anything that would obtain even the most diffident interest from the most casual fans — and instead uses it as a kind of Corporate Welfare Insurance Policy to guarantee their sense of entitlement as very rich men to become even richer by turning a large personal profit from a caliber of product that doesn’t honestly qualify right now as one that should expect to be profitable, by its sheer lack of demonstrable excellence and focus minimally necessary to make it viable in a tremendously competitive — even with the handout form the rich teams to the poorer ones — industry such as MLB.
No, it’s not the losing… after all it is only a game, played by grown men for unimaginable fortunes, but a game nonetheless. What hurts so badly and agonizes to the point that I will go on live radio and make a colossal ass of myself over it is the downward spiral trajectory into total irrelevance, and how it tastes like that spiral is deemed not just tolerable but somehow appropriate and necessary by the people in power at the top of its administration to help precipitate — by means not of outright intention so much as unconscionable neglect — the conditions they desire to make it profitable beyond their wildest imaginations in another locale.
I apologize for the length of this comment but it is getting to the point that I either have to look away from this or look it in its eyes and tell it what it has become, that someday it might right its ship and retake the mantle of commitment it once held in dedication to upholding the tradition and legacy of its very name — Athletics — which now stands in such a pitiful and questionable condition for the whole world to see.
Josh/EN
West Oakland
Hello, I'm Vince Cotroneo for the Marmaduke B. Mushmouth School of Public Speaking...
by emperor nobody on Jul 10, 2010 1:54 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
"in the quantity of All-Star reps" I meant
Hello, I'm Vince Cotroneo for the Marmaduke B. Mushmouth School of Public Speaking...
by emperor nobody on Jul 10, 2010 1:56 AM PDT up reply actions
EN, your idea that the owners are neglecting the team
in order to pocket the profits is complete fantasy.
I’m not going to say I know how much profit the owners are taking because of course I don’t, and neither do you, but there is no evidence that it is out of line with the MLB norm. Imperfect though it is, the best source we have is the Forbes annual “Business of Baseball” analysis. According to that report, the Oakland Athletics rank #12 out of 30 for operating income. If you add capital gain (loss) on the value of the franchise, Oakland is #19.
Now I’m always the first one to point out that Forbes’s analysis relies on a lot of guesswork, but their guesses are more educated than yours or mine. So where do you get this notion that the ownership is stealing the luxury tax money?
The A’s payroll is more than it receives from revenue sharing. The A’s profit does not appear to be out of line with that of other teams. Yes, all baseball teams make money for their owners, just like the other big corporations that rich men put their money into. If your argument is that all 30 teams aren’t spending enough and baseball teams should be run like a public utility, well OK, that’s consistent, but good luck with that.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
by iglew on Jul 10, 2010 2:29 AM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
The Luxury Tax money goes to a Selig slush fund, not to other teams.
It’s not that the $60M payroll is too low. It’s that it’s spent on mediocre players.
it’s tough to ‘support the laundry’, especially when the teams are losing on a consistent basis. - OldhamA
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 10, 2010 4:36 AM PDT up reply actions
fixed
all baseball teams (except the Rangers) make money for their owners
by LoneStranger on Jul 10, 2010 7:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Even the Rangers are making some money for Hicks.
They just aren’t making enough money to cover the payments he owes on all his loans.
According to the Forbes report, two teams did not make money for their owners this past year: The Diamondbacks operated at a small loss (within the margin of error, I’d say), and the Tigers operated at a large loss.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
In addition, we don't know where the operating income is going.
It’s definitely not outside of the realm of possibility that Wolff and Beane are putting some of that money away so that in a couple of years, we have the money to bump the payroll up and make a free agent splash, putting us over the top. The key? We don’t know.
She lives by the wall, and waits by the door.
She walks in the sun, to me.
Int'l scouting and FAs, certainly.
My gut take? Beane tried hard this winter, going after Beltre, Scutaro, Chapman and has become a bit demoralized by player after player turning Oakland down even when Billy “goes for it” and ponies up big money (for this franchise). How could you not burn out after experiencing that for multiple years?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I thought this game was not so bad.
AN has a weird sort of backward logic. It was a very close game, we played well, even outhit the other team, and the opponent was a good team. We were in the game till the very end, but we came up just short.
AN’s conclusion: We’re the worst team ever, Beane and Wolff aren’t even trying to win, we have no hope of ever winning a game again.
I realize close losses are more frustrating, but they aren’t more indicative of a bad team. I know you get tired of hearing Geren say, “we played well”, because he says that after every game even when we didn’t. But this time we actually did.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
by iglew on Jul 10, 2010 2:16 AM PDT reply actions 4 recs
Rec'd both of your posts here.
Close losses hurt and will always inspire some impressive rants. But what it really comes to down to is Bailey making a bad 2-0 pitch that Aybar just managed to get all of.
Bob Geren is indeed bad at his job however.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jul 10, 2010 2:36 AM PDT up reply actions
It also comes down to Breslow giving up a HR. Those two have been the only reliable
bullpen pieces and now they let us down.
it’s tough to ‘support the laundry’, especially when the teams are losing on a consistent basis. - OldhamA
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 10, 2010 4:39 AM PDT up reply actions
If the team hadn't lost three in a row previously to a really good team (that showed us how good our team isn't) then this loss doesn't hurt so much.
Losing has an effect, and each loss compounds upon the last one and even if this was a close one (and we’d like more games like this).
I don’t subscribe to the whole ownership not trying to win bs. I think at worst, they’re trying unconventional strategies and they aren’t working. The “new” ___ball that they’ll be writing about in a few years.
by LoneStranger on Jul 10, 2010 7:52 AM PDT up reply actions
Winning
It was not unusual in previous years for the A’s to be outmanned “on paper”, but we consistently won our fair share of games and suffered through some tough losses also.
We did this with a small budget team(not small market) It is not my nature to point fingers at the manager when we lose, but something has to change and Geren seems to be an obvious part of a problem, three years in the making.
Lets go Oakland
Not sure what you mean by "previous years" but the only year I can remember the team
having a good year with average talent was 2006. OTOH they had lots of talent in 2005 and didn’t win anything.
it’s tough to ‘support the laundry’, especially when the teams are losing on a consistent basis. - OldhamA
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 10, 2010 6:29 AM PDT up reply actions
So Bailey pitched 2 innings
I thought Geren said he wasn’t going to have Bailey do that…guess that means Bailey won’t be available to close tonight?
by OaklandSi on Jul 10, 2010 5:35 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
{which means he'll pitch 3 innings}
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
The talent just isn't there
There is a lot of blame the manager going on here. Bu this team just doesn’t have the talent to be more than somewhere in the lower middle of MLB.
I actually like this team better than the squad that was put together last year. It’s young and I think the chemistry has improved. But its two best pitchers are injured and it has no power. On paper, this team – good manager or bad manager – should lose more often than not to the better teams in baseball.
If this team manages to win 81 games it would be a major achievement. I’m thinking it will be more like 75 wins. The A’s will not be able to compete with the upper echelon unless they manage to keep their starting rotation healthy and they spend the money to bring in a couple of free agent offensive studs.
I’ll keep buying season tickets because, even though the A’s aren’t very good, the prices are low and I like watching MLB live. I imagine the A’s will continue to refuse to buy the necessary talent they need for the foreseeable future. The team is what it is.
Maybe when the A’s move from Oakland, Lew Wolff will change his ways. If he doesn’t, ticket prices will rise, yet the team will continue to be mediocre (and I’ll be gone). In the meantime, to expect a contending team to emerge from draft picks alone is probably a fantasy.
when the A's move from oakland
Wolff will be dead by then, or at least so old he’ll come to “Free A’s Cup Day” to catch all his drool. The stadium move situation will be at least 6-10 years from now, and Wolff (already long in the tooth) will be long since retired. He needs to realize his legacy is – partial owner of a sub-optimal baseball team. Nice, but I can think of alot better ways of making your mark on history.
by rollierollieOxenfree on Jul 10, 2010 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions
I wrote him something along those lines
It said, you’ve been a great success. You’ve had a great life. You have far more money than anyone would know what to do with. Why not spend a chunk of that money to add a championship team to your legacy? I doubt he read it. But still.
by rovingralph on Jul 10, 2010 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions
Another painful checkmark in the loss column
In reading all the posts, it’s certainly tough to be an A’s fan nowadays, especially after a somewhat hopeful beginning of the season. As an A’s fan since the mid-1970s, I have seen many good and bad years, and this is shaping up to be the latter.
I think what separates us A’s fans from most is our tenacity and spirit, even during the lean years. Those are intangible qualities accumulated over time. As such, I will continue to support the A’s despite the accumulating numbers in the loss column. I will even continue to wear my A’s jerseys ;-)
And thanks Baseballgirl for the great game summary!
by A's Fan in Virginia on Jul 10, 2010 7:10 AM PDT reply actions
Why are the A's playing at stupid o'clock on a Saturday, again?!
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
Well that's just selfish.
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
I'm with iglew
This was actually a great typical A’s-Angels game that ended badly. In the context of a good year it was a good, tough loss. In the context of yet another bad year it’s more frustrating.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
We always seem to play 1 run games with those guys.
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
My phone is broked. =(
Guess I’m gonna have to pony up for that iPhone sooner than I expected….
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
Was better than the Yank losses, as somebody else here said
was close enough to hurt.
But what was up with the attempted bunts AGAIN to move a player from second to third w/ no outs?
I nearly Bjorked when I heard that.
FIRE GEREN
And honestly, take Beane too if he’s going to keep making excuses for his best man.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
by Flashfire on Jul 10, 2010 10:27 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Yup.
It’s embarrassing.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Guh. Replied too soon.
But the problems extend past just Beane, down to medical/training staff, scouting and so on. It may be getting time for a complete organizational overhaul if the injuries, poor hitters and so on continues.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Raj Davis
Is my favorite A on a bad list? It is bad enough that Geren chose to PH for your number
three ,but use a call up to lead off the inning instead of the guy who can steal bases is
perplexing. Having watched Beane over the past few years my conclusion is that Raj is
toast. I will say goodbye to him now knowing I will see him again in the playoffs or
ASG along with Ethier, Street, CarGon, Swish, Haren and Huddy. Rajai we hardly knew you!
I posted this in the game thread, but I'll repost it here.
2010 was always supposed to be a rough year. We don’t have the payroll to compete every year, so we have to take some time, build our assets, and hopefully stack them high enough for four or five years of contention. The pitchers are just about ready. The hitters (Carter and Taylor) are coming soon. It’ll be a nice 2012, but unfortunately, we’ve got to bide our time until then.
And what this doesn’t mean is that Wolff is purposefully tanking to move to SJ. Sure, we’re not really fully playing to win this year, because the ultimate goal is 2012. Beane isn’t going to make moves to improve this team unless he can do it without sacrificing the future team. This is the reason. NOT tanking for San Jose.
She lives by the wall, and waits by the door.
She walks in the sun, to me.
by danmerqury on Jul 10, 2010 11:03 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
My concern is that
the farm system is not, currently, what I hoped it would be at this point. Taylor and Cardenas have stalled some and the overall pitching does not impress me — though I’ll acknowledge that some of this is because MAC are in Oakland instead of in AAA.
But if the current group of hitters cannot produce more than one who is better than “pretty decent” that’s not encouraging. My current prediction is that Carter will still thrive and be a 30HR guy in the bigs, that Cardenas will be a Hatteberg with meh defense, that Taylor will disappoint but have his moments, and that Weeks will be a bust. I had hoped for better at this stage.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Possibly.
But look at what San Diego’s doing this year. A pitching rotation of Anderson/Cahill/Gio/Mazzaro/fillintheblank could be really, insanely strong two years from now, based on the potential we’ve seen this year. It doesn’t take much offense to make that rotation into a winning team.
She lives by the wall, and waits by the door.
She walks in the sun, to me.
San Diego has great mirrors, though.
My guess is that the Rockies will actually take the NL West.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I definitely wouldn't be surprised if SD falters in the near future.
But man, the first half they’ve been able to produce, smoke and mirrors or not, has been remarkable. They’ve got a worse offense than we do.
She lives by the wall, and waits by the door.
She walks in the sun, to me.
Can we maybe fillintheblank with Outman?
I like him. And his stirrups.
by whiteshoes40 on Jul 10, 2010 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions
It’s a possibility.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Jul 10, 2010 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions
He was one of the guys I had in my mind when I typed that.
I like him a lot, and he really showed some great stuff last time he was here. But you know, by 2012, it could be anyone, really.
She lives by the wall, and waits by the door.
She walks in the sun, to me.
It's Like Prospects come here and Regress
The longer you are in the A’s the worse you get.
It’s like they fuck with their heads and turn them into passive hitters who are not decisive at the plate.
I don’t have an answer, I am not a coach but I don’t like what I see one bit about the way this club is run and I really think that Beane and co either could care less or do not have a clue what they are doing. I would say it’s a bit of both because the incompetence is at an all time high.
Time for Beane to step away. I give the guy an F for failure.
I will always root for the A’s no matter what but with him and his boyfriend running things, there is no way in hell this team and the prospects reach their potential.
The health of the players is enough to sabotage any real run because they have no clue. You do not have 8 million injuries year in and year out without something wrong in the way they conduct their fitness programs.
And of course the ballpark. We all know they needed one 10 years ago. A couple of months ago we were all excited for the club going into next year. Until Geren is fired, next year is not going to be much better. This rebuilding excuse got old last year.
TB and Minny just to name a couple have GM’s that know what they are doing on limited budgets so there is no excuse to use the payroll argument. The A’s have money to work with if they want but they choose to put a bad product on the field. The promising pitchers we have end up suffering because they put an offense on the field that puts the pressure on the pitcher from the start. If we had some power in the lineup and some hitters who swung the bat when there are runners to drive in instead of trying to walk runs in, then we might get somewhere.
And we need a manager who has the drive and the passion to get thru to the players not someone who praises a pitcher for giving up 5 runs and says, “Go get em next time”
I don't know how many times I've told you this in the last 8 hours,
but the rebuilding excuse did NOT get old. A typical plan is five years. We’re in the middle of year four.
She lives by the wall, and waits by the door.
She walks in the sun, to me.
It's just Trainman.
I mean, the guy is complaining about Barton’s plate approach for crying out loud.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jul 10, 2010 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions
No you're not
You’re continuing to post in ways designed to humiliate. If you were tuning it out or laughing, there would be no comment.
And yes, I have a soft spot for Trainman. So sue me.
{hires lawyer}
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jul 10, 2010 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm fully entitled to LOL at his rants if I want, and there's no harm in that at all
You can have your soft spot for him all you like.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
The "harm" is that IMO it makes you look immature and mean,
which is probably not your intention. I’ve emailed Trainman privately at times and gotten a great response. Laughing at someone publicly rarely accomplishes anything productive.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
If we really want to get into the semantics of it, I'm laughing at some of the rants, not at him
But to each their own. I have my frustrations with the team but I don’t see the need to air them out on a nightly basis.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Personally, I look at Trainman as representing
all of our uncensored insta-reactions that we don’t actually say. 20 times/game I think, “God I hate this team!” or “I wish A-Rod would fall into the Grand Canyon or his ego, whichever is bigger,” and while I may not mean it 5 days, or 5 seconds, later, it has crossed my mind for a split second. Most of us don’t post that way; he does.
And to suggest you’re laughing at his rants, not him…hmm…so you’d say you’re laughing with him, not at him….k…
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Barton hitting 50 points below his average with RISP
is worth complaining about.
You might be satisfied with that but I am not.
Something wrong with that picture. 19 for 84 is large enough for me to make my conclusion. IMO he does not hit well under pressure. He is 2 for 32 with the bases loaded in 4 years. And .245 from 2007-2009 with RISP
Maybe he will be better in future.
"19 for 84 is large enough for me to make my conclusion."
Annnnnnd there’s your problem.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jul 10, 2010 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions
It irritates me so much when the stats guys simply put down arguments by saying
“Well there isn’t a large enough sample size.” It’s such a cop out.
I’m on the fence about both btw – I like to look at all the weird and wonderful stats that indicate how good a player is, but I also like to judge it by eye. I don’t take sides in this argument, but this is just one part of it that bothers me.
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
Why?
It’s like saying that OBP+SLG=OPS is a cop out. Sample size is a mathematical statistical rule.
She lives by the wall, and waits by the door.
She walks in the sun, to me.
What's interesting (to me) is that along with the stat
Trainman cites, Barton is also exceptionally poor in his career with the bases loaded (2 for 20 with a .100/.233/.100 line). Sure, it’s a SSS and could be random — but it could also not be and is thus interesting (to me) to note.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I too find it interesting.
We know that in general across all players, this is not a stat that has significant predictive powers. That is, if you’re trying to predict how well a guy will hit in the future with RISP, you’ll get a better read by looking at his overall hitting history than you will from his hitting-with-RISP history.
We also know that in a large sample of players, there’s going to be a few outliers who break the pattern. As Barton’s small sample grows and he starts to become one of those outliers, I start to wonder: Why is he the outlier and not someone else? Is it just the random chance that somebody has to be the outlier and it happens to be Barton? Or is there something weird about him that makes him a genuine exception to the rule?
Although the pattern is not yet nearly as large, it’s exactly how I feel about Ronny Cedeño and his persistent reverse platoon split (which, as some of you know, is an obsession of mine). I understand that platoon splits are random enough that someone could be a wacko outlier just by chance, but is it really chance or is there something special about that guy that breaks the rule?
Random chance is adequate to explain it, but that is not the same as proof that it must be random chance.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
Another way to look at it would be,
perhaps the odds still favor a normal split next season for Cedeño over another reverse one — but if someone is going to be a true outlier and have a reverse split going forward, odds are better it will be Cedeño than it will be someone else.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Personally I find it interesting that Barton seems to hit better when I wear white socks on the day of the game rather than black socks.
Whereas for the rest of the A’s, it doesn’t seem to matter what color socks I wear.
I’m starting to wonder, is it really chance there? Or is there something special about Barton that breaks the rule?
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jul 10, 2010 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions
This has the feel of a scandal.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
But in the case of your socks
it’s much harder to find a possible connection that we’re not aware of, whereas with the situations of men on base or platoon splits there is enough connection that some sort of unidentified physical or psychological effect is at least plausible.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
It was a joke dude -- albeit not that amusing of one.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jul 10, 2010 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions
I think it severely hinders stats as a predictive tool.
By the time the sample size is big enough the player will have been around for a few years – everyone will know what he can and can’t do at that point.
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
That's why scouts aren't always foolish
to look at things like “bat speed” and “mental makeup” — they’re less quantifiable but they also don’t take as long to reach validity.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Exactly. As I said previously, I like looking at both sides of the discussion.
I think they both hold value in judging a player.
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
You're basically asking for the holy grail of projections: predicting what a young player would do once they enter the league.
Figure that out and you’ll be very very rich (and employed!)
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jul 10, 2010 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Well I am demanding, yes.
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
It's not a cop out.
Stat guys don’t scream “SSS!” to be mean or because they have no better arguments to make. They bring it up because there’s an legitimate issue with how much data variation exists in a SSS and how that can lead to erroneous conclusions.
For example, in Trainman’s 84 at bat sample, if Barton had gotten 2 more hits during that time period, he would’ve been right around his career batting average. No, I’m not hypothetically “awarding” Barton hits. It’s to show just how much fluctuation can exist in such a small sample size, and how differently things would appear with just a small tweak of the data.
Avoiding judgments based on SSS is just a basic tenet of statistics. It’s not so we can shout down baseball traditionalists or people who don’t agree with us.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jul 10, 2010 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
It may not be a cop out, but it is a shorthand
which leaves the door open for people to feel slighted.
When someone spells out the issue by explaining that a certain amount of data has been shown to not have predictive power, people generally take that pretty well and are glad to have been further educated. When it’s a short throw-away line like “small sample size, therefore you’re wrong”, it comes across sounding like “Ha ha, I said the magic word, so I win and you lose,” which only irritates people and does nothing to convince them.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
Similarly irritating is when people take their time to explain time and time again
why small sample size is an issue (and quite often, to people who’ve already had it explained to them once or twice or more before) only to be met by statements such as “84 at bats is good enough to make a conclusion”. And yet afterwards, I still took the time to explain to OldhamA nicely why it’s an issue even when he basically started off by accusing me of using a cop out argument. I don’t understand why my part of this exchange is the one that needs policing, iglew.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jul 10, 2010 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm well aware of why people state 'SSS'. I'm pretty up to date on my stats.
And that’s exactly what I’m referring to btw. 84 at bats is quite a few, yet it’ll be thrown back that you can’t judge anything until x amount of bats have been reached.
For example, I’m sure I read that it takes literally thousands of at bats to determine whether a player has a significant split against opponents that are opposite handed. At which point, again, the player will have been in the league for so long that EVERYONE will be able to tell you whether that’s the case or not.
What I’m trying to say is that I like my stats as predictive tools more than anything. I’m pretty confident in my abilities to judge a player when I see them over a period of games. I like to look at the stats to confirm or deny my conclusions, but I imagine that’s what everyone does.
So, therefore, when SSS is thrown around it defeats the object in my opinion.
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
I get that.
You basically think that by the time stats reach a statistically significant level, you wouldn’t care because you’d already be able to judge and make accurate conclusions about a player. Therefore, you want to use stats, or a create a new stat, that allows you to forego the conventions and restrictions statistics have, like small sample sizes, etc. That’s fine, really. But don’t take issue (or call it a “cop out” argument) when someone else contends with your usage.
Unfortunately, I don’t think such a statistic exist, nor is it possible to develop one like that. In any case, you’re not even traipsing around the field of statistics anymore. Honestly, I think you’re asking for a crystal ball, rather than a statistic.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jul 10, 2010 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions
I wasn't policing you.
Your post that I directly replied to was an example of one that spells it out. Your earlier one above, which prompted Oldham’s “cop out” reply, was a counterexample.
I’m not saying you have to do one or the other, just pointing out that they get received differently. Personally, I’m a big fan of explaining the same thing over and over. I think that repetition is an underrated technique both in teaching and in art.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
Explaining things over and over again
to someone who’s willing to learn and broaden their knowledge and perspective, but is just taking a while to grasp the concepts, is perfectly fine and most people are willing to do that.
Explaining things over and over again to someone who consistently has shown no inclination of the sort, and who continues to spew the same tired crap day in and day out, is an entirely different beast.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jul 10, 2010 4:57 PM PDT up reply actions
I do hope that's not referring to me.
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
Nah, it's not.
I would place you in the first category.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Jul 10, 2010 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions
When we have small sample sizes
we should get more information. Has anybody who has closely observed the matter seen differences in Barton’s batting style when RISP?
As for a larger sample size, Barton’s career major league BA for RISP is .238 (56 hits out of 235 AB) vs. .257 overall.
Here’s another interesting split: Barton’s career slugging rises dramatically from an overall career average of .392 to .529 in September and October out of 238 ABs. So if we ever get in the playoffs Daric’s the guy to have. Or perhaps that gives him nice trade value to a team that is more likely to make it into the playoffs?
by A's Believer on Jul 10, 2010 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Cardenas
He plays 2B and 3B, right? When you say Cardenas turns into Hatteberg, do you mean you think he’ll end up at 1B, or do you mean he’ll hit like Hatteberg and still play 2B or 3B? Because if it’s the latter, that sounds pretty good to me.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
I mean he could put up Hatteberg-like numbers at the plate,
e.g., .280/.380 with 12 HRs, but with average-at-best defense at 2B or 3B. Which isn’t terrible (I like Cardenas as a prospect) but isn’t going to threaten the All-Star team.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Got it.
I’d be more than happy to have a team full of guys like that. Give me nine Hattebergs with average defense at each position, and screw the All-Star game.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
I thought he could hit .300 in his sleep? Clearly I've been lied to.
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
No, he can.
It’s when he’s awake that the problems begin.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
A couple of Gems from Bailey and Geren
Bailey said he didn’t expect the leadoff hitter to swing on 2-0 and grooved a fastball. “Bad mind-set by me,” said Bailey, who pitched beyond one inning for the first time since June 20. Manager Bob Geren said it was because Bailey had four days’ rest.
Asked about Oakland’s power outage, Geren said, "Home runs are instant offense. (The Angels) showed it late with two big homers. We played the game hard and correctly all night. We were just victimized by the homer.
“We’ll see some more (power) in the second half. Jack will get it going. Our games will be about pitching and defense and running the bases perfectly and timely hits. And adding more power in the second half will definitely help, and we have guys to do it.”
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/07/09/SPP11ECD76.DTL#ixzz0tJ7u3mlG
Andrew didn’t expect Aybar to swing 2-0 and grooved one.
That is because the A’s hitters don’t swing 2-0 like Barton didn’t do. This is one of the problems.
Geren keeps pulling the same shit
Last year, Giambi was supposed to be a part-time player. Instead, he started like a billion games.
This year, Gross is supposed to be the fourth or fifth OF. Instead, he keeps getting starts.
SAME SHIT DIFFERENT YEAR
Another close game!!!
Yes, according to Bean you can chock this up just like a win because it was a close game. Plus we’re in year 4 of the rebuilding process so next year we should be able to compete. Give Geren another 4 years.
Honestly, Beane's last name isn't really that difficult to spell.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

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