wOBA Addendum: How Valuable are Rajai's Legs?
by danmerqury on Jun 1, 2010 7:00 AM PDT
Email
PrintNo, I'm not talking about his logo-emblazoned stirrups.
Last week I wrote about wOBA and how it's calculated and used. One of the great things about wOBA is its flexibility. That run value system can be adapted to include any event you would like. Want to include intentional walks? Look up the average run value, add 0.3, multiply by 1.15, and throw it in the formula. Catcher's interference? Just do the same thing. The only reason those events aren't usually included in the standard wOBA formula is because they're so rare that they're not worth the trouble of calculating. For pretty much everybody, they'll likely make next to no difference in the end result. But unlike interference calls and non-Barry Bonds intentional walks, stolen bases and caught stealings can occur enough in some cases to matter. Lucky for us, we've got one of those rare cases.
Yeah, yeah, I know, Rickey Henderson claimed that Rajai Davis could steal 80 bases. That's not happening. But he does lead the majors with 22 steals, which puts him on pace for 68+. And he's just so blindingly quick that I see no reason for that pace to go down, provided he stays healthy.
Now, the math doesn't quite work the same as the rest of the offensive events (+0.3, ×1.15), because SBs and CSs don't take up or occur during a plate appearance, but the weights for the wOBA formula work out to be +0.25 for a stolen base and -0.50 for each time caught stealing.
If you calculate Rajai's wOBA using the standard formula, it comes out to 0.298. When you add in his 22 stolen bases and 2 caught stealings, it jumps all the way up to 0.322. That's still not exactly good (especially considering that CFers as a group generally hit a hair better than the league average of 0.325-0.330), and it's nowhere near his 2009 mark of 0.354, but the 24 point SB-fueled increase means that his baserunning has already been worth, by itself, almost four runs. Over the course of a full season, his legs are on pace to create something around twelve additional runs, or a full win plus change. Not bad at all.
The A's are in Fenway tonight, as Gio Gonzalez opposes a pitcher the A's know very well, John Lackey. First pitch is at 4:10 PM, rainy weather permitting.
Odds and Ends
- Those wOBA weights really point out how small of an impact stolen bases actually have. A stolen base is worth somewhere around a third or a fourth of the value of a single. Rajai is special. Most batters don't have anywhere near the speed required to steal enough bases to make it all that meaningful. If you had to choose between a light hitting speed demon and a league average base clogger, it's almost always worth it to choose the base clogger, even if the gap in hitting ability is rather small. Even a legendary 80 SB/0 CS season would only add 30 points to a wOBA over a full year. In other words, steals are great if they're a bonus, in addition to hitting ability. If they're the only reason a player is on a team, you're probably making a roster mistake.
- For those wondering if the weights should change from year to year due to changes in run environments (or for those who like looking at enormous monolithic tables full of numbers), take a look at this. It's a table from Tom Tango's website that shows the wOBA weights if you were to recalculate them every year. The answer? Eh, not really. The weights stay constant enough to be fine as static unchanging numbers.
- By the way, Fangraphs's wOBA already includes SB and CS.
- I wanted ask this question last week, but I'll ask it now: are there any other arcane stats you'd like to see tackled next? I was thinking of aiming for UZR, followed by WAR, but if there are any good recommendations, I'd be happy to handle those too.
175 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
It's a heck of a counterpoint to the "rajai should hit leadoff" bit.
SIG SPACE AVAILABLE FOR SPONSORSHIP. INQUIRE WITHIN.
The single dumbest stat in sports
It’s actually “Passer Rating,” and it makes no sense AT ALL.
Did you know that if you have a QB who throws 100 passes in a game, all incomplete, (let’s call him RaMarcus Jussell), he’ll have a 39.58 rating.
Another QB completes 5 of 10 passes for 80 yards, but also has 1 INT. His rating is 37.5
Now, turnovers are bad, but being 0 for ONE HUNDRED is far, far worse. The stat should never, ever be used by anybody to argue anything whatsoever.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jun 1, 2010 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions
What about pitcher win-loss record? That's way dumber
No other single player stat relies on the entire team (offense, defense and relievers), umpire and manager more than that. Its utterly of no value whatsoever. It hasnt been relevant since relief pitching was introduced. Fuck it. Fuck it to oblivion.
-The president of the "Sign Elijah Dukes" fan club.
Meh, I don't think it's nearly as dumb
Mainly because it’s fairly simple, straightforward, and the limitations are obvious.
Passer rating is supposed to be the wOBA for QBs, but it looks like it was created by a 12 year old with a TI-83.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jun 1, 2010 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions
wins were more relevant 40 years ago
not to say they were a good measure between two fairly evenly matched pitchers, but a good quick indication. Kinda like ERA today.
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
Sure. And Passer Rating offers virtually no indication of how good a quarterback is.
I mean, it’s impossible to be terrible in a game and have a perfect rating (by the way, the NFL caps this number for no reason whatsoever), but that’s kinda like having a .450 batting average and obviously being good at hitting. When you get to the very extremes, it might work, but that doesn’t make it very useful.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jun 1, 2010 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Don’t worry because no one understands it.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Jun 1, 2010 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions
It makes sense (though it is tough) to also include non-SB baserunning when going for "one number"
which tends to range from ~ minus 6 to +6. Rajai will definitely not maintain his current success rate at SBs, but will get a lot that back with general baserunning. He’s probably +5-10 in overall baserunning over a full season which is a lot, or a least I think it’s a lot (it is what it is).
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
Same sort of question
Obviously, we’re well aware that speed and good baserunning shows up in forms in addition to SBs/CSs… Does the wOBA weights take into account the first-to-thirds on singles and first-to-homes on doubles (or for that matter, increased second-to-home opportunities)?
Dan Fox's base running numbers on BB-Pro show Rajai 3.8 Runs Above Average this year
2.3 RAA on SB/CS + 0.8 RAA Advancing on Ground Balls + 0.2 RAA Advancing on Hits – 0.1 RAA Advancing on Fly Balls + 0.6 RAA on Other Advances (WP, PB, BK)
This puts him 2nd in MLB behind Michael Bourn (4.3 RAA), and tied with Jose Reyes and Brett Gardner. It looks like Rajai is approaching averageness on offense when base running is taken into account. Since his BABiP has been low this year, it may be that he’ll be the 3 WAR player that I thought he was when all is said and done.
That sounds like some sort of sexual metaphor. - iglew
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 1, 2010 8:39 AM PDT up reply actions
The .322 number probably goes up to ~.326 with non-SB baserunning, so a bit below average
He won’t keep up his current pace of awesome baserunning, but his hitting line should improve. He’d need to be 10 or so on defense in CF (and get more playing time) to be 3 WAR, and I don’t think he’s +10, more like ~3.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
I wouldn't be surprised if he keeps up his baserunning pace
He’s not just fast, but I think Rickey has actually helped him become a much better base stealer.
I think Rajai is pretty close+10 on defense.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jun 1, 2010 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions
He's on pace for +11-12 for the year.
No one in the majors projects that high. No one. On defense, he’s +5.5/150 for his career in the OF (including some time in the corners), and average for his career according to plus minus. He’s obviously really fast, but gets some bad jumps.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
Meh, this is called doing some dishonest things with numbers to prove a point
Including his LF/RF numbers in a discussion about CF is wrong. They’re not the same. It’s clear you did it just because the few RF innings he has were rated so poorly because of SSS issues.
He’s a 6.0 UZR/150 for his career in CF, and that’s in about as many games required for any legitimacy to the numbers (though it’s really not 2 1/2 seasons). That’s twice what you claimed he is.
Also, where is he on pace for +11-12? Fangraphs is actually showing him as a negative defensively in 2010.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jun 1, 2010 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions
BTW the 3 WAR thing is based on:
Batting — 0 RAA
Defense – 5 RAA
Position – 2 RAA
Baserunning – 4 RAA
Replacement 20 RAA
Total 31 RAA, or 3.1 WAR more or less. His slow start batting will likely lower that somewhat, but he can still get close.
That sounds like some sort of sexual metaphor. - iglew
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 1, 2010 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions
haha, ok...
Use 6/150 instead of my dishonest 5.5. First of all, that is not 10. Second of all what I did was average his UZR against his +/-, which is 0 for his career.
11-12 is baserunning.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
Okay, I see where you get the 3 from now
If we’re going to use 2 zone-based metrics, why not include PMR, where Davis is pretty awesome? The totally of the information suggests Davis is a lot closer to +10 than +3.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jun 1, 2010 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Ya the 3 WAR thing might be a bit of a stretch...maybe 2.5-3.0 WAR is better.
That sounds like some sort of sexual metaphor. - iglew
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 1, 2010 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions
I'd say he's closer to -10 than 0 in batting over a full season
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
He might be. ZiPS projected a .336 wOBA, CHONE .319
He’s career .328, so it could be anything in that range.
That sounds like some sort of sexual metaphor. - iglew
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 1, 2010 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions
It's not but could be
bpro has detailed baserunning stats. The top guys each year will be around +5 in non-SB baserunning over a full season, which is around 8-10 points of wOBA.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
whoops, replying to spiffy
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
Complete formula?
Cool. Last week you gave us the formula for wOBA. Do you mind stating it again, but with the stolen bases and caught stealing included?
Sure.
(0.72*NIBB+0.75*HBP+0.90*1B+0.92*RBOE+1.24*2B+1.56*3B+1.95*HR+0.25*SB-0.50*CS)/PA
I'm walking out in a force ten gale.
Birds thrown around, bullets for hail.
by danmerqury on Jun 1, 2010 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
my eyes just glazed over.
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
maths are hard.
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
I typed that from memory, while blindfolded, and balancing on stilts.
I'm walking out in a force ten gale.
Birds thrown around, bullets for hail.
quite the contortionist are you.
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
Is the +0.25 for SB and -0.5 for CS and average of all bases in all situations?
I’d think these values would change for stealing 2B vs stealing 3B, and would also change with the number of outs in an inning. Fox’s numbers also include pickoffs.
That sounds like some sort of sexual metaphor. - iglew
yeah, it's an average. Surprisingly (to me) they don't change much due to how many outs there are (for stealing 2nd)
what changes the values a lot is the score. I think just adding up the average SB/CS values is sort of dubious because there’s a lot going on, but it’s not clear what a good way of doing it would be.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
Why would the score change the Run Values? I can see them changing the WPA.
That sounds like some sort of sexual metaphor. - iglew
by WaddellCanseco on Jun 1, 2010 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions
you are right
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
Yeah, so would I
The 2004 Run Expectancy Matrix ( the first one I came across) has following expectancy increases for stealing second with no other baserunners:
0 outs – 0.23
1 out – 0.16
2 outs – 0.09
With a runner on third it is:
0 outs – 0.28
1 out – 0.25
2 outs – 0.09
For stealing third (no other baserunner)
0 outs – 0.30
1 out – 0.26
2 outs – 0.02
They do have to use some average value, though – otherwise you can’t calculate without play-by-play data.
Play-by-play data is the next frontier.
I think a lot of the traditional strategies baseball embraces, which are commonly rejected by statistical analysis, don’t consider how much leverage a single act in a baseball game can have on the only thing that matters, which is who wins.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
The earlier wOBA post slipped by me
Can you explain, in a nutshell, why these multipliers are anything other than arbitrary based on how the formula creator feels these elements should be weighed?
Seems to me, from having paid close attention to Jack Cust since he returned to the majors that I’m seeing a bunch of dinky singles and a lot of walks, and I don’t remember being impressed by his double the other day. If wOBA is as accurate as claimed here, then I wouldn’t judge Cust on it thus far because the sample size is still too small.
Also, something that I’ve seen and nobody here wants to address: How is Jack Cust’s worth being cut back by the fact that he is not getting the calls on a lot of balls out of the strike zone? Yesterday, for instance, when Diaz was being over-generous with other batters, he called a third strike on a ball out of the strike zone. I’ve seen this happen a lot with Cust. My own theory is that umpires want players to hit the ball, and Cust is far too content to allow pitchers to put him on base without taking a cut. In other words, a player who is a “good hitter” solely by virtue of getting walks, isn’t going to get as many of the calls as a player like Barton, who does hit the ball more often.
The multipliers are derived from linear weights.
The short and sweet version is: A double increases your chances of scoring more than a single. A triple even more so.
It’s based on this: If an average team scores 5 runs per game, that means they average 0.56 runs per inning. Based on that (0 outs, 0 runners on base) you can calculate the run value of every possible event over the course of a season, or 10 seasons, or whatever.
Anyway, those values are what the multipliers are. The only arbitrary part of wOBA is scaling it to OBP.
SIG SPACE AVAILABLE FOR SPONSORSHIP. INQUIRE WITHIN.
Ah, thanks
I didn’t get far before my eyes glazed.
But the key here is when you say “the only arbitrary part of wOBA is scaling it to OBP.” In other words, it’s scaled to walks. Since Jack Cust walks a lot, his wOBA will tend to be on the high side. Which means that in the case of a hitter like Cust, using wOBA is almost as problematic as using OBP without taking SLG into account. In other words, just OBP, wOBA is weighted toward hitters who don’t actually hit.
Getting on base is actually the most important thing
and the idea that drawing walks “isn’t hitting” is silly. Hitters make it happen with their batting skills. It’s not a random event that happens to them. And it helps them achieve the goal of hitting, which is scoring runs for your team.
wOBA is biased towards players who get on base because that’s what actually scores the most runs.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Hitting is Hitting
Anyone, including my mother, can go up there and have an OBP of .500 and never actually hit the ball if the pitcher can’t find the strike zone.
I’m not discounting the power of a good batting eye, mind you. I’m just saying that hitting is hitting. It isn’t sitting with the bat on your shoulder.
richwol1, I'm sorry but that's obviously ridiculous
Anyone, including my mother, can go up there and have an OBP of .500 and never actually hit the ball if the pitcher can’t find the strike zone.
You can’t possibly believe that a hitter could just “go up there” and have an OBA of .500. Can you?
As for this…
I’m just saying that hitting is hitting. It isn’t sitting with the bat on your shoulder.
Now you’re just quibbling. You sound like a basketball fan complaining about a player who draws lots of fouls. “That’s not ‘scoring’! He’s just shooting free throws!”
Drawing walks is a skill. You can tell it’s a skill because some players are consistently good at it, year after year, while others are bad at it, year after year. If BBs were just something that happened to players, they’d happen to players randomly.
I thought this was a discussion about Jack Cust’s offensive abilities, not an effort to parse the definitional subtleties of the word “hitting”.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Exactly.
If I call someone a great hitter, I mean that he creates a lot of runs from the plate. End of story. There’s no separation between walking and the physical act of hitting a ball.
I'm walking out in a force ten gale.
Birds thrown around, bullets for hail.
I think that in the case of someone with a low batting average there is
I’m not arguing Jack Cust’s general worth on a team that has people like Eric Patterson or Jake Fox in the line-up. But the fact is that when he DOES get that perfect pitch and a chance to drive the ball, he’s just not particularly good at it. I don’t think that’s parsing either.
That's why....
…I’d call him a crappy hitter with a great batting eye. I understand you’re both talking in aggregate terms…but given his inability to do much more than dink the ball into the outfield and walk, with occasional home-runs, I think calling Jack Cust a “great hitter” is hyperbole.
Whatever floats your boat, dude.
Just know that the combination of “a crappy hitter with a great batting eye” has produced somewhere around 85-90 runs above average over the last three years.
I'm walking out in a force ten gale.
Birds thrown around, bullets for hail.
This discussion has happened on AN before.
And quite frankly, it’s one of the most pointless discussions that’s ever happened on AN, because it’s clear that one side is obviously referring to batting average when they argue about what it means to be a “good hitter”.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
When a small subset of a community is assigning their own definitions to terms that are contrary to the community at large
I have a hard time blaming the community at large for rejecting those definitions.
What it really is is people who don’t like a player making shit up in an effort to argue against them.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jun 1, 2010 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Definition of a small subset of the community:
The Oakland A’s, who assigned Jack Cust to the minor leagues when the season opened. Obviously, if the team had felt he was their best player, he would have been a major leaguer at the beginning of the year.
For all my griping about Cust, I think it was a bad decision. But that “small subset” you refer to clearly includes at least some members of the A’s braintrust, who felt that keeping Eric Patterson and Jake Fox in the organization was a higher priority than having Jack Cust on the major league roster.
Um, no. You CLEARLY missed the point
The A’s didn’t subscribe to this dumbass made-up separation of “hitter” and “batter.” The A’s didn’t argue with people who said “Cust is a good hitter” by saying “No, ‘hitter’ means a guy who hits .300.”
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jun 7, 2010 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions
People who differentiate between hitting, batting, and any other synonym for "does good things from the batter's box" really grind my gears
THE WORDS MEAN THE SAME THING
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jun 1, 2010 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions
"does good things from the batter's box"
that must include charging the mound when Lackey’s on it, right?
Nope. That's an event separate, kinda like base running.
Lackey Beating points factor into WAR, but they’re separate from hitting ability.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jun 1, 2010 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions
watch a national league game
watch the pitchers at bat. That is someone waiting for a walk. And they don’t walk, most of the time.
pretty much any major league pitcher should be able to throw 3 strikes to a batter who is not “hitting”
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
No, it's scaled to match the range of OBP
That’s where the seemingly random *1.15 and +.3 numbers come into play.
It’s weighting slugging already, that’s what the linear weights part that mikev is referring to.
No
When mikeA says wOBA is scaled to OBP, he means that the end result is a number that looks the same as OBP. A great hitter will be at .400, a terrible hitter at .300 and league average at around .330.
wOBA absolutely does include slugging. wOBA counts a double more than a single, a triple more than a double and so on. It even counts a single more than a walk (a flaw in OBP as I’m sure you know). As for umpires being harsher on players who swing less, it could make an interesting pitchFX study.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Eh
All you mikes are the same to me. Get an original username. (Sorry about that).
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
I sometimes have to double check which mike said something
But mikev and mikeA are definitely different.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jun 1, 2010 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions
The avatar helps.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Jun 1, 2010 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions
I mentioned this in reply to this assessment of Cust on the other thread
but Cust doesn’t just walk — he’s also been, by an enormous margin, the A’s’ best HR hitter for the last 3 years. He gets on base a lot and hits (for the A’s, at least) a lot of HRs.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
The A's best HR hitter
Sure. But the bar is awfully low.
Which means that we're even more desperate for the HRs he hits
Give him 145 games, and he’ll probably hit between 25 and 30 HRs. He’s not Mark Reynolds, but those are solid HR numbers.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Maybe, maybe not
His totals have been declining year to year.
I’m not arguing that Cust isn’t the best home run hitter on the club, but really, 25 homers is a pretty low total for someone who is known as a home run hitter. The guy isn’t a power hitter who gets on base a lot. He’s a walks machine who hits for occasional power. If you’re looking for a number that to me signifies the difference, that number is 30 homers a season…a number Jack Cust fell well short of in 2009.
Jack Cust has now played in 13 games
Very small sample size. But he has only one extra base hit and that wasn’t a particularly impressive one.
Cust is a streaky HR hitter though
For all we know, he could hit 5 in the next week.
Don’t write him off this season til he gets some consistent ABs over a few more weeks
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on Jun 1, 2010 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Why is 30 HRs the number for you? Why not 28? Or 39? Why is there "a number" anyway?
Here’s what I’m gathering from this discussion:
1 You don’t enjoy watching Jack Cust, mainly for esthetic reasons.
2 You’re casting around for rationalizations in an effort to demonstrate that he’s not a productive offensive player.
You don’t like watching him hit. Fine, I get it. But your displeasure at watching him has nothing to do with the fact that he’s actually one of the A’s’ most productive hitters, and has been every single season he’s played for them.
Will he eventually decline? Absolutely. Could that happen this season? Certainly. But I don’t see any reason to bench or release him, given how well he still gets on base and how bad the other alternatives are.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
You're making quite a leap there
I’m arguing against the idea that Jack Cust is a “great hitter.” I want to see Jack Cust in the line-up because with his walks and dink singles, he’s still a better hitter than Patterson, Fox, Powell and Pennington. And given the possibility that he could hit five home runs next week, obviously the biggest wild card in a line-up that desperately needs wild cards.
I think he should’ve been with the team when it left camp. But my god, is there a single person in AN who’d DFA him before Fox and Patterson? (Or Chavez if he ever returns?)
The guy with the most home runs on the team the last 3 years certainly doesn't "dink singles"
Seriously, your hyperbole is astounding.
SIG SPACE AVAILABLE FOR SPONSORSHIP. INQUIRE WITHIN.
"dink singles?"
I don’t get tv games so I can’t see the hits, but from what they say on the radio he seems to be hitting the ball pretty hard. A couple of singles even went to right field, which I assume means they were hit hard based on the defensive alignment.
FWIW, Fangraphs has his LD/GB/FB rate at 33% for each. That doens’t seem to support “dinks”
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
Dink Singles
I have seen most of the games this year. He hasn’t been hitting the ball with all that much authority, at least it looks to me.
On this team, dink singles and walks are very good, and I’ll take them. I’m not anti-Cust, I’m anti-hyperbole about Cust. I think statistical analysis generally is weighted in favor of a player like Cust which is one of the reasons, I think, the A’s don’t place as much value on his bat as many of the folks here at AN.
1/3 of the balls he hits are line drives.
Hyperbole about Cust is saying that he hits dink singles.
You’re all over the map, dude.
SIG SPACE AVAILABLE FOR SPONSORSHIP. INQUIRE WITHIN.
Not really
My view and fangraphs are not necessarily the same. Sometimes it pays to actually watch games, you know.
Anyway, this year I love watching Cust, particularly at the games. My friends, and people in my section usually bet on “swinging, called, walk” whenever he comes to the plate. Makes every pitch an adventure. And sometimes he fools us and hits the ball.
Well, let me revise that..
Jack Cust hasn’t been hitting the ball with that much authority in the games I’ve seen. And I’m not sure whether fangraphs talks about the difference between hard-hit liners and softer liners.
"I'm arguing against the idea that Jack Cust is a 'great hitter'."
So find the person(s) who called him a “great hitter” (which you put in quotes, so I assume you’re quoting someone), and go argue with them about it.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
You're the one who responded to me...
…and wrote, “But I don’t see any reason to bench or release him, given how well he still gets on base and how bad the other alternatives are.” Because I was never even hinting at that.
There's a thread on AN that was posted yesterday that advocates Chavez over Cust when Chavez "comes back"
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jun 1, 2010 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions
this stuff is hilarious
he can play baseball and disrupts pitchers and makes heads up baserunning plays while on base. i hate how baseball turned into all these useless stats that dont mean crap if a guy can play he can play
he should leadoff
and if crisp is ever healthy he should bat second
by Chris Schlitz on Jun 1, 2010 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions
according to all observational and statistical data this year
he can’t play very well when he has a bat in his hand.
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
Brian Sabean?
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Jun 1, 2010 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Insteaf of JUST UZR, include PMR and +/-. They're similar enough to be treated as equals (though I happen to think one of those three is far better than the others)
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jun 1, 2010 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions
That is a formula
that no one will ever get and even if someone did, women would still tell them its wrong ;)
Zooey Deschanel!
by ChickenStanley on Jun 1, 2010 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions
great article dan!
You should rework it a little (maybe add in the Dan Fox baserunning numbers that WaddellCanseco mentions) and submit it for the fangraphs community analysis blog. It’s a great case study to look at one of the most extreme examples of a player creating value through baserunning.
I saw that community submission blog a little while ago.
Intriguing. Not sure if I want to make that leap, but it’s intriguing nonetheless.
I'm walking out in a force ten gale.
Birds thrown around, bullets for hail.
You could perhaps do UZR first
and then in your writeup about WAR, you won’t have to explain how UZR factors into WAR.
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
Yeah, that's what I was planning on.
I suppose the WAR article would focus mostly on positional adjustments and replacement level.
I'm walking out in a force ten gale.
Birds thrown around, bullets for hail.
If you use WPA instead of wOBA
You get….
SB: 0.815
Picked off: -0.086
Caught Stealing: -0.038
Total WPA: 0.691 wins added
1 win = 10.5 runs
= 7.26 runs
The value of stolen bases are context driven for the most part. As it is often easier to steal a less important base and more difficult to steal a more important base, due to things like the pitch out, slide step and pick off attempt. The defense usually protects heavier against the more important SB.
vr, Xei
I have no idea how this numbers were calculated
But this can’t be right. Actually, I have no idea what you are trying to say, so I’ll retract that statement.
he added up the WPA contributions
for all of Rajai’s baserunning events so far this year. So these numbers are sensitive to the context in which all of SB occurred.
Yes, that is the case
That is what I did, sorry if it wasn’t completely obvious. :)
Thanks Colin.
vr, Xei
STATS ARE ALL BULLSHIT!
Booga Booga Booga Booga
sock puppets have never successfully defended castles, except when working with squirrels, which would never happen because squirrels know better than to trust sock puppets. -nm
Go back in your cave and finish packing!
by LoneStranger on Jun 1, 2010 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions
[slinks back to cave, resumes packing]
Pushed truck back one more day…
sock puppets have never successfully defended castles, except when working with squirrels, which would never happen because squirrels know better than to trust sock puppets. -nm
by Leopold Bloom on Jun 1, 2010 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions
No Bloomy....using stats there is a post that says Ryan Sweeney
would be better if he hit the ball harder….I mean how else would anyone know that? Gosh my mind is so blown…. who knew hitting the ball harder would make you have more home runs?
I am but a simple cave man ex-sign monkey overlord.
Your stats confuse and frighten my primitive brain…
sock puppets have never successfully defended castles, except when working with squirrels, which would never happen because squirrels know better than to trust sock puppets. -nm
by Leopold Bloom on Jun 1, 2010 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Ewww, John Lackey. He should've gone to the NL. Or, you know, Japan or something.
What do the stats say about how Lackey’s mouth-breathing affects his pitching performance?
He has a horrible -14.2 VORN.
That’s Value Over Replacement Nostril.
I'm walking out in a force ten gale.
Birds thrown around, bullets for hail.
Thank god I am radio only
I think I am coming down with a cold because I have not been able to breath and I have the sniffles. I don’t want to think I look like him for (hopefully) a hour.
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
For all this talk about our offense
Breslow has not allowed a run in his last 10 outings (10.0 ip) and Ziegler has not allowed a run in his last eight (9.0 ip). THE PEN IS COMIN THROUGH, AGAIN!
-The president of the "Sign Elijah Dukes" fan club.
Sorry, Dan, I'm not trying to hijack your post or anything,
but this photo is just too cute not to post.
♥
It's like they're zooming into some hapless insect scurrying by
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!! - danmerqury
by cuppingmaster on Jun 1, 2010 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh, so it is a 300mm
Btw. flashfire, in case you missed it, I wrote some on my experiences with the different Nikon long lenses in the Cahill recap thread.
No worries.
It’s a front page post. I’m not really doing my job if it’s not getting hijacked.
And man, they both look completely enraptured by whatever it is that’s on that camera.
I'm walking out in a force ten gale.
Birds thrown around, bullets for hail.
Yeah, I am not sure the "camera" is keeping their interest
but benefit of the doubt, maybe its not a blond.
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
Most baseball player wives are blondes. It's a little annoying.
Brunettes actually have more fun, contrary to popular belief.
Brunettes and redheads are way better!
imo :)
Zooey Deschanel!
by ChickenStanley on Jun 1, 2010 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh absolutely.
But I’m happy to let that blonde perception merrily continue. More for me.
I'm walking out in a force ten gale.
Birds thrown around, bullets for hail.
I dunno.
Some bald chicks are pretty hot
Zooey Deschanel!
by ChickenStanley on Jun 1, 2010 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions
90% of which
is blonde. That is SO last week
Zooey Deschanel!
by ChickenStanley on Jun 1, 2010 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Speaking from experience?
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
Hmmm, you're not, but it's a bloody good article.
Tough to hijack.
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
Shoes, you're gonna love this.
Fangraphs just did a little study to see if better players had more twitter followers. That led to this one-of-a-kind graph.
Looks like BrettAnderson49 is a little below average.
I'm walking out in a force ten gale.
Birds thrown around, bullets for hail.
Who would wonder how swisher leads all MLB in followers?
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
CJ Wilson
I only follow him (and root for him in non-A’s games) because he’s straight edge. His racing tweets are kind of annoying.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jun 1, 2010 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions
That's terrific.
Obviously better players tend to be more popular, but Twitter offers access to a player’s thoughts, the quality of which might be independent of a player’s ability on the field.
…case in point: Mr. Brett Anderson. Love to watch him pitch, but dude needs to work on his Twitter skillz.
disagree
BretAnderson49 needs to continue on his path. It will be celebrated in 20 years if not appreciated today.
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - dannycakes
I was going to follow Anderson, but sleeping in the middle of the day is something I try to avoid doing.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jun 1, 2010 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions
His twitter feed is the Metal Machine Music of our time.
But more abrasive. And annoying.
I'm walking out in a force ten gale.
Birds thrown around, bullets for hail.
It's an art piece.
He’s so onto us.
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
Great read as always
One thing that stood out to me:
Now, the math doesn’t quite work the same as the rest of the offensive events (+0.3, ×1.15), because SBs and CSs don’t take up or occur during a plate appearance, but the weights for the wOBA formula work out to be +0.25 for a stolen base and -0.50 for each time caught stealing.
That actually seems like a pretty important distinction, and potentially a limitation of including base stealing in a statistic that’s fundamentally about what you do at the plate. Rajai’s likely to steal a base every other time he’s on base, whereas a decent hitter is likely to do something useful at the plate only a third of the time.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
STATS RABBLE MAKES
MY HEAD HURT :(
Wuertz was scratched from a minor league game on Wednesday, but bounced back quickly on Thursday, throwing mostly fastballs and sliders, although he did mix in three sliders. -Rotoworld
Over at the Red Sox home, they claim ellis is not great at defense
“as Ellis can’t field at all”, and claim Rosales is better. Can this actually be true?
PL78 runs a Red Sox Blog?!
Someone has been looking at 2010 Stats only, not only with fielding. SSS and not much interpretation skill on the part of the author.
My generous thought was about hamstring injuries
perhaps his range may be down recently because he can’t run as well.
My less generous thought was ‘go ahead, try it’
I doubt it
but IIRC, Ellis’ numbers took a pretty hard dive last year, and he definitely seems a little less rangy. It could well be that Ellis’ reputation exceeds what he’s actually doing today. Too bad he didn’t win that first Gold Glove, since he’d probably still keep winning them on reputation for a few more years.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
Yes, at least according to the UZR
his 2009 range has significantly declined and with it his defensive value. It was still positive in 2009, though.
15 games started
not quite the large sample size.
That's the right number.
I didn’t bother filtering out his three appearances off the bench.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
15 for 2010 so far, I mean
2009, yes, I saw those numbers and contemplate the meaning
I have a feeling this is true.
Age and injuries have probably sapped some of Ellis’ defensive ability, but I think he’s still likely an above-average defender.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Jun 1, 2010 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions
+1
He’s got good enough instincts and positioning at this point in his career that he can still be a good fielder, but he’s not nearly as good as he was before getting hurt a bunch of times.
SIG SPACE AVAILABLE FOR SPONSORSHIP. INQUIRE WITHIN.
arms, legs, brain
arms + brain good, legs going?
It's not a fair comparison though.
Before his injuries (leg injuries – cos I’m sure he’d have been an excellent short stop) he was otherworldly at 2B.
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
I still think he's hindered by making it look so easy.
How often does Ellis pull out a flashy play at 2B? Almost never.
And you’re right, he’d have won a few Gold Gloves on reputation if he just got that first one. It’s a travesty his defensive excellence hasn’t been recognised by the majority of the league.
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
You basically don't have to go any further than this
Mark Ellis is also solid at .298/.385/.404, while everyone else is below average.
to realize that the author never bothered to look beyond the (sometimes extremely SSS) numbers for 2010.
the last part is true )-:
considering our slugger has ? HRs ?
I tried to join OTM so I could raise a questioning eyebrow.
I really hate the 24 hour comment hold rule.
I'm walking out in a force ten gale.
Birds thrown around, bullets for hail.
just let it go
any time you feel like being drawn into a thread at an opposing site, you are 99% sure going to get in trouble.
or an adjusted 95 +- 4%
That's probably a really good idea.
I'm walking out in a force ten gale.
Birds thrown around, bullets for hail.
Luke
I am your Father
Zooey Deschanel!
by ChickenStanley on Jun 1, 2010 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Athletics Nation
Related FanShots on Athletics Nation
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Baseball Nation Recent Stories
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Get a grip: Reds’ Todd Frazier loses bat, still connects for home run (Video)
- Eric Hosmer redefines the Baltimore chop with infield double (Video)
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
