Scary Thoughts
by Taj Adib on May 17, 2010 3:56 PM PDT
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PrintI'm going to really try to stay as positive as possible while our Green and Gold guys battle through this funk they are in right now. I think this team still has a chance to contend this season with the personnel at-hand and obviously, with memories of Braden's Mother's Day Masterpiece still fresh in my head, there is still some nice, positive stories to fall back-on so far...
But as I look into the near future, there are two very irksome issues that are dashing my hopes for this organization. They aren't anything new to any of us, but I thought I'd throw out some of my latest thoughts regarding them to make myself feel better.
First off...
1) The Injuries: It sucks to (probably) lose Duke for another year. It sucks to be without Ellis for several weeks. Buck probably missed out on his last opportunity to be a productive member of the organization with his latest setback and that sucks. I'm sure we all really wish Joey Devine was setting-up or closing games out instead of handing innings to DFA-train...yes, all those things suck, but they certainly weren't totally unexpected. All of the four above guys are currently unavailable for basically lingering or reoccurring injuries and as they always say, the best predictor of future injury is...
You get the point. So I'm not really all that concerned/irritated/upset about those guys going on the DL. I'm not even all that upset about Wuertz, Suzuki or B Anderson and their woes or Coco. Those injuries seem like wear-and-tear issues that probably could have been better managed by the A's training staff, but aren't too debilitating for this organization long-term.
So, even after all that, I haven't been that doom and gloom about this team's health report. However, this morning I read something that sent me over the edge. If you don't subscribe to the oaklandclubhouse site on the Scout.com website, I apoligize that you won't be able to read the whole article below:
Updates From Oakland A's Extended Spring 
The gist of the story is thus:
- James Simmons is out and has been out for months now with "shoulder pain" that has yet to be properly diagnosed or identified by any physician.
- Dusty Coleman (overslot guy from 2008 draft) that played a pretty good shortstop and was an intriguing up-the-middle-bat, had a wrist-surgery that supposedly "hasn't heeled correctly" and will probably need another surgery to correct it...so he'll probably miss another season and will likely never hit for much power ever again.
- Michael Ynoa has experienced a myriad of small health issues (the latest being a back strain) that have kept him off the mound for a long while and have prevented him from debuting in a regular season professional game.
- REgarding Sean Doolittle, here is what Keith Lieppman says in the article:
"He is another player that is frustrated and we continue to struggle with figuring out exactly the issue is," said Lieppman
- THen there's Chad Lee, Chris Mederos, Jemile Weeks...all pretty talented recent draftees that have one issue or another keeping them off the playing field at the moment, not to mention guys like Andrew Carignan or FDLS who have been "rehabbing" for over a year now and haven't progressed much.
Seriously...the health issues facing this organization are ridiculous. I think I'm most mad about the Simmons and Doolittle situations. Regardless of their current prospect stature(s) (and once upon a time both players showed the potential to be big-league contributors) the fact that the organization is "still trying to figure out" what's wrong with both guys months/nearly a year after their original injuries is just incomprehensible. Couple that with the (probably) botched surgery on Coleman and the recent botched surgery of Braden...I mean, c'mon!
I don't know what to think about the health issues anymore. I mean, a lot was made a few seasons ago about this organization reorganizing and re-prioritizing health and training organization-wide...it's just not working...in fact, it's pretty clearly failing. This team organization is doomed unless it can really find a way to deal with health issues in a much more manageable way...in fact, I think this organization really needs to make this a MAJOR priority from now on, and not just rearrange staff members and buy new exercise equipment. They need to approach managing medical issues like an undervalued commodity...find the best/most enlightened medical minds out there, aggressively seek them out and bring them into the organization and/or try out some radical training/treatment methods. This current situation is untenable.
2) Inability to Produce Offensive Talent: Seriously. I've written about this before numerous times, but I believe that A TON of this organization's future lies on the wide backs of Chris Carter and Michael Taylor. These guys need to become star-level offensive contributors fairly soon, or else this team will continue to get out-hit by most of the AL or this latest window of opportunity will close without a real chance at the playoffs.
There just isn't anyone beyond Taylor or Carter in the minors who legitimately profiles as a difference-maker and the current MLB squad is showing that it's clearly not able to score runs consistently or hit for any power. There's a slim chance that Beane could trade-off someone like Gio or Mazzaro or even Ross or CAhill for some type of offensive talent, but with this teams' injury issues, I don't think Beane would make a move that would impact the depth chart that adversely.
I might be overreacting a bit here to both of these issues, but, honestly not by much. I'm not worried about this organization's ability to consistently field a competent pitching staff. While the team still plays in the Coliseum, I'm fairly certain that Beane could put together 12 decent pitchers every year by simply trolling the waiver wire...however, his recent inability to put together a decent lineup year after year is truly mystifying...and troubling.
- It could be argued that Barton, Suzuki and Pennington have shown some semblance of offensive talent and they came up through the system recent; (for the most part). But even in best-case scenarios, these guys will likely top-out as good everyday players but not star-level contributors that can carry an offense.
- There's just no way that Beane will ever be able to lure premiere free agent hitters to Oakland...and without a really deep farm system, he won't be able to trade for marquee hitters either. This is why it's critical that he finds a way to develop one or two of these types of hitters ASAP.
- Beane's off-season and spot-managing attempts to really strengthen the fringes of the 40-man roster were somewhat prescient and a step in the right direction in terms of managing the crushing effect of the injury maelstrom...however, these efforts are just a band-aid on a massive hemorrhage. This team is not going to win a playoff spot this year or in at any time in the future if it has to really on major contributions from guys like Eric Patterson, Jake Fox or Adam Rosales.
So tell me AN, am I overreacting? Or am I justified in having such scary thoughts?
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The injury problems and the inability to even diagnose some of them is just inexcusable
Last of the Ninth - Photography
by Flashfire on May 17, 2010 4:11 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
this is what most bothers me
if you’ll recall both Harden and Crosby said certain injuries were misdiagnosed. if it were only those two I wouldn’t take it that seriously. But to send Braden for a biopsy and have a nerve in his foot severed (!!) just boggles the mind. And how is it that they can’t find someone to properly diagnose Doolittle?
the players should file a class action
lawsuit vs. the A’s ..lol
Btw, my buddy cancelled on me, so I won’t be going to tonight’s game. I’ll be there 2moro night in Sec 126.
by sf drift king on May 17, 2010 6:49 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't know if it's over-reacting
But I guess it depends on one’s perspective. It’s kind of hard to predict the A’s to be top contenders with the consistent loss of talent that you are talking about, however Beane has in the past been able to make some good trades (along with less good ones), and so in my mind the possibility of him still being able to pull something out of his hat is there. However, he is definitely not as far ahead of the game as he used to me, and many of us are getting to the level of frustration you are talking about. I’m just not sure what the answer is.
The thing with the star potential is, that the A's have been bad, but not bad enough. Most superstars are
drafted in the top 5, or are Scott Boras clients. The A’s always end up in the mid teens, and miss out on the best players.
I've seriously thought about this...
and it’s sad to even consider the “Tampa Bay” model as something that the A’s might actually want to look into if all else fails…
I’m thinking of intentionally tanking multiple seasons, like 5 or 6 in a row, in order to grab multiple top-5 picks in succeeding seasons in order to sometime, in like 10 years, be able to graduate two or three stars at the same time and give themselves a chance to field a really good team for a year or two before blowing it all up.
In the end, that strategy would probably never fly and is probably even riskier than whatever model the organization is currently utilizing, but I guess it’s worth analyzing, especially looking at how stacked Tampa Bay is right now.
But who knows…maybe a new CBA in 2012 with some tweaks to the draft will fix some things…
I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!
I think we may be on the verge of tanking our 3rd straight season
Unintentionally. Your plan may be viable.
"Smokey, this be not the foul jungles of the darkest East Orient. This be ninepins. We are bound by laws."
You call it tanking, but the A's still haven't dropped into the top 5 of the draft, so they would have to make a
more precipitous drop.
by theblackpearl on May 17, 2010 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Because they try too damn hard every year
Ask me about my squirrel.
That looks like the 1990s A's model
The drafts in the mid-to-late 1990s produced a lot of top talent while the team was finishing near the bottom for several seasons. We suffered as fans but the payoff at the end of the century was outstanding.
Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!
Not necessarily true.
They are teams that consistently maintain top ranked farm systems even with low draft picks (the Red Sox come to mind).
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on May 17, 2010 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions
theyve been busting slot for a long time
He's not missing bats and still giving up HRs like they're party favors at Chuck-E-Cheese - mikev
by designatedforassignment on May 17, 2010 5:55 PM PDT up reply actions
As should've the A's.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on May 17, 2010 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions
shoulda woulda coulda
He's not missing bats and still giving up HRs like they're party favors at Chuck-E-Cheese - mikev
by designatedforassignment on May 17, 2010 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions
The important thing is... they are now
And have been for the past two years.
The monster at the end of this blog.
what does busting slot mean?
honest question
The Not-So-Casual Fan
There is a "recommended" amount of money that drafted players are supposed to get as signing bonuses.
depending on where in the draft they were selected — their “slot”
Selecting a player and then paying them more than the recommended bonus is going over slot. Lots of teams do it, and there’s no penalty for it.
SIG SPACE AVAILABLE FOR SPONSORSHIP. INQUIRE WITHIN.
The Injuries
The injuries are especially bugsome. I had high hopes for Coleman, Weeks and Doolittle.
But they also do try to find values on the margin by picking up injury prone players: Duke, Devine, Sheets, Frank Thomas. That might not be as money saving as they think.
As for the offensive lack – I’m not sure they know what an elite hitting talent looks like. But I think it looks more like Brett Wallace than Michael Taylor or Jemile Weeks. I’m pretty sure Wallace will be hitting .280 with 25-30 HRs in the next two years. I’m not certain Taylor or Weeks will ever provide that much offensive value (maybe never for Weeks considering how often he’s hurt).
In regards to the injuries
How many more years of guys missing this much time before the organization takes drastic measures with its medical staff?
This is unacceptable. Plain and simple. Yes, we did not have the most DL trips last year and yadda yadda yadda, but enough is enough. It has affected our entire organization unlike anyone could possibly anticipate.
Yes, there are injury prone players, but not to this degree. Is it the training staff, the coaches, or the medical staff? The root of the problem lies in one of these, and it will continue to cripple the chances this team has to succeed to its full potential. Someone needs to assess the organization’s handling of players health and injuries and determine what the problem is and take care of it.
I’ve seriously had enough of this. I’m hardly every critical of our Oakland Athletics, as many of you I’m sure have noticed, but this is not okay with me anymore. No more bullshit excuses, those of us who follow this team, pay good money to see the best product on the field, and pour our heart and soul into being a fan of this team absolutely deserve a resolution to this problem.
Good riddance.
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
I'm more inclined to believe
That we are simply incompetent in drafting players with a clean injury history. We go conservative, go for guys whom we know will sign and not get into a bidding war with. Those guys, though, happen to be the ones that other scouts have labelled as slightly less than first-round material, potentially because of injuries.
You’re right — the amount of injuries this team has had is simply incomprehensible. But, I find it hard to believe that the A’s don’t realize that injuries are crushing this team’s soul, all the way down to its fans. We used to say that it was about not wanting to spend money on decent medical staff — but really?!? How much money would it truly cost to institute organization-wide change – $2M? Beane may have made some personnel blunders, but he’s not dumb. Lew Wolff isn’t dumb either; neither of them wants to spend money on players that don’t produce on the field. That’s the whole philosophy, to get as much from players as you can.
I don’t know, I need more evidence than two guys (Crosby and Harden) who were disheartened with the organization and decided to rip the training staff.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!! - danmerqury
by cuppingmaster on May 17, 2010 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes, and top
tier prospects are unlikely to sign with the A’s because I am sure the organization has such a poor reputation for keeping them healthy and/or competent medical care.
by Chilango on May 17, 2010 5:14 PM PDT up reply actions
thats not actually true
they are drafted they don’t have a ton of choice.
He's not missing bats and still giving up HRs like they're party favors at Chuck-E-Cheese - mikev
by designatedforassignment on May 17, 2010 5:33 PM PDT up reply actions
As I understand it, they don't have to sign
and sometimes they don’t. As in Justin Smoak.
by Chilango on May 17, 2010 5:48 PM PDT up reply actions
My point wasn't
that Justin Smoak was deterred by the A’s medical staff. I am saying that having a poor reputation as an organization could deter top tier prospects. Justin Smoak was an example of how a prospect does not need to sign with the organization that drafts him.
by Chilango on May 17, 2010 7:04 PM PDT up reply actions
out of high school maybe.
out of college, not so much. There aren’t really options for guys, save for going and playing in an Independent League for a year and getting redrafted, but that’s not the best idea.
SIG SPACE AVAILABLE FOR SPONSORSHIP. INQUIRE WITHIN.
Smoak wanted to go to college
It had nothing to do with Oakland.
by scatterbrian on May 18, 2010 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Upcoming Draft Pick
The lack of hitters is a real concern. Hopefully the A’s can pick a college hitter with power potential (Cox, Brentz, Choice?) who can contribute fairly quickly.
Outside Audit
Forgot to include this in the OP…
Does anyone think that it would even be possible to hire some type of outside, reputable organization to run a comprehensive audit of the A’s training and medical staff and methods? I mean…obviously the self-evaluating and self-tinkering that occurred a few years has not resulted in any type of progress in terms of preventing or treating injuries.
Perhaps such an audit would uncover some issues that were overlooked in the A’s internal discussions and could be more easily identified and rectified for long-term progress.
I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!
It's like epidemiology
You would be able to say there were surface issues, like old equipment, bad luck, etc. but it would take a lot to prove that our injuries were significantly worse than they would be with another team’s medical personnel and equipment in place. We have some bad ass luck, no one doubts that, but beyond that I don’t know what there is to say.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!! - danmerqury
by cuppingmaster on May 17, 2010 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Taj, you should consider posing this question to CT tonight
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!! - danmerqury
by cuppingmaster on May 17, 2010 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Chris Townsend
The inimitable host of the A’s postgame show on KTRB.
http://www.ktrb860.com/ktrblistennow/1461.html
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!! - danmerqury
by cuppingmaster on May 17, 2010 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions
(+vocab points)
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
dude. that's a good word.
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
LOL thanks miss pam
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!! - danmerqury
by cuppingmaster on May 18, 2010 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah I missed that
What did he say about it?
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!! - danmerqury
by cuppingmaster on May 17, 2010 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Part of it was how the A's seemed to think the first four spots in the rotation were a lock heading into the season...
…when CT felt both Duke and Sheets were justifiable question marks because of their injury history (well, history in Duke’s case, with Sheets not having pitched since 2008 because of his) and more general stuff stemming from there.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
You could probably hire a Business Consulting firm to do this
Bain, BCG, McKinsey, etc. Probably wouldn’t be cheap, but you think it’d be cost-effective long-term for sure.
what could they measure that would actually be meaningful?
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!! - danmerqury
by cuppingmaster on May 17, 2010 5:32 PM PDT up reply actions
As far as I understand their purpose
It’s that a company approaches say Bain, and says listen, we have this organizational problem – in our case injuries. Then they assign a team of basically fresh out of school ivy league kids to research the company and come up with solutions.
I honestly don’t know if they’d be appropriate. I have friends from college that went into consulting, but they have to be pretty tight-lipped about their work. Basically a general overview of the field is about the most you can get out of them. So I don’t really know what their methods are like, but unless there’s a specific awesome health consulting firm( and there very well might be ), they’d probably be a fairly reasonable choice.
Lets just say this, if I’m the A’s right now, I’m calling around trying to get some quotes from folks.
Ah, something I know about!
I worked for Bain out of college, it could be a possibility. The real value of a Bain/BCG/McKinsey is the fact that there aren’t beholden to anyone except who hired them. So they wouldn’t be as tied to any of the internal, old boy politics that are rife within baseball and might actually have a chance to identify what is (and who is the problem),
I could see a case revolving around a couple major questions.
How does the A’s medical staff compare against major league benchmarks (not just DL usage which is a pretty blunt tool, but in terms of injury response times, injury identification, etc.)?
How does the A’s scouting staff and front office compare against major league benchmarks in identifying injury risks in the draft and trading?
How much should the A’s front office invest in front end medical remediation (helping injured players recover) vs. upfront injury identification in the draft and trading vs. back end medical remediation (identifying problem activities and
How much of the problem is the A’s medical staff miscommunicating injuries and injury risks to the front office and bench coaches?
What injuries and injury risks are ‘worth" taking the risks on in the draft and in trades and which aren’t?
It certainly isn’t unprecedented for sports teams to bring in. Boston teams are particularly aggressive about this, I know both the Celtics and the Red Sox have used strategy consulting firms to modify their drafting and informational dissemination. Daryl Morey was a strategy consultant at Parthenon before he joined the Celtics front office and became GM of the Rockets.
by eastbayexpat on May 18, 2010 5:23 AM PDT up reply actions
What are the benchmarks though
How does one measure “injury response time” or “diagnostic accuracy” or something akin to that? Do clubs really have these data laying around? The data are useless without a basis for comparison.
What’s more, if there was systemic medical mistreatment by the big club, wouldn’t there have been a union grievance filed by now?
The whole drafting with a focus on injury history I am totally on board with. That, however, can be fixed programatically, but you need to build in to that some measure of bad luck. Sometimes, players just get injured for no other reason than bad luck.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!! - danmerqury
by cuppingmaster on May 18, 2010 6:58 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't know what the metrics are, I just threw them out there as possibilities
I’d guessing that ML teams have some way of measuring them, but I certainly don;t have the level of insider knowledge necessary to say for certain. But measuring response times and identification times and injury identification to shutdown times seems well within the realm of possibility from the data. Hospital ER rooms have been measured on those metrics for years now (as in how fast a doctor can see a patient, how quickly the problem is diagnosed, how effective the treatment applied immediately is). I’d imagine some sort of similar system could be created for a ML team.
As far as I know, there has been little to this effect done in the major league even though it’s being quickly adopted in the outside world. I’d bet that you might even be able to mitigate health issues and improve healing time by identifying them early and fixing them quickly.
You could even see fairly simple ways to extend the system to optimize usage of players who are injury risks, like the Duke. If there was a conclusive way to keep Duke healthy by spacing out his starts differently than the traditional every five day starter role, it should be adopted in a heart beat. But you can;t get to any of those conclusions without data, and I’d imagine that there is a lot of opportunity to enhance and improve collection and analysis of it.
As for systematic medical mistreatment, my guess is that it’s hard to prove either way. I would imagine that it’s not a matter of malicious intent or anything like that, but a product of relatively primitive methods of diagnosis and identification of problems. The Players Union probably doesn;t see any issues with it because they don’t know any better. Additionally, I doubt the teams are intentionally trying to keep their players on the DL. The short comings are likely driven by lack of data (or poor analysis of it) rather than systematically poor treatment.
There isn’t a perfect solution the the drafting issue, you certainly have to build in some luck to injuries. But I’d imagine there are certain injury types and athletic profiles that would lend themselves to certain types of injuries. Kyle Boddy has done a great job analyzing pitchers at Driveline Mechanics, imagine if you could put a rigorous database of that sort of information in the hands of a scout watching a prospect. Even if you could reduce future time spent on the DL by 10-20%, it almost has to be worth it.
by eastbayexpat on May 18, 2010 7:57 AM PDT up reply actions
I mean, why even follow a team or even leave your house
bad things might happen!
Is tonights game going to get called or what? Its still raining.
-The president of the "Sign Elijah Dukes" fan club.
This looks promising.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on May 17, 2010 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Gooood!
I need some baseball to get the bad aftertaste of Slegna out of my mouth…
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on May 17, 2010 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Something is wrong but what?
The A’s need to reload and get rid of their entire medical staff and start over. Whoever they are they are not doing anything right. Maybe it is giving the wrong shots to under diagnosing injuries. No team has this many injuries without a problem with the medical staff. This is where Beane needs to look for outside help.
+1
Concisely said what I was trying to.
This is getting ridiculous
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on May 17, 2010 5:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Indeed it is a scary thought to put so much of the offensive burden on Carter and Taylor.
2010 was to be- in the eyes of some- the first year of a half-decade’s worth of feasting. Now, thanks to another rash of injuries and questionable moves, it looks as if the famine will continue into next season, if not further. That the division is weak- and therefore winnable by anyone- only softens the blow.
I'm here to talk about the past.
I was hoping all along that 2011 would be the emergence of Carter and Taylor as cornerstones of the offense...
…after perhaps a cup of coffee in 2010. Ideally that timetable won’t change.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Me, too.
A couple of years ago, I figured 2011 would be the year the A’s compete in earnest again. I never would have guessed the A’s would waste so much of 2009 on stupid short-term goals. I also didn’t count on the rest of the division crashing down to their level in 2010.
Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!
Meh, the "famine" isn't there yet
This team still stands a chance to show some offense. I’m not sitting here saying it will happen, but hold your horses for another month…
AN: Where you will be an A's fan or Dallas Braden will show you the repercussions of your actions.
by stranahanahan on May 17, 2010 9:38 PM PDT up reply actions
you're spot on
not able to develop hitting talent, Beane’s kinda handcuffed into giving up pitching or trying to find treasure among other people’s junk like Cust
another concern is him not being able to consistently turn out the “one big gun a year” into big producers. Frank Thomas worked, but Piazza, Giambi, Thomas V2, didn’t. Not sure if Sheets is going to work out yet….
If he wants to run across the pitcher's mound, tell him to go do laps in the bullpen - pepe
Stassi could be a top hitter too
The fact that the A’s reached into the fourth round to grab him and pay overslot indicates they’ve become aware of their problem developing hitters… I bet if Justin Smoak had been a high schooler last year, they would have offered him enough to sign. As for the many injuries at lower levels, it’s not meaningful unless we have a control group from other teams and measure percetages. It’s certainly not uncommon for young pitches to burn out their arms.
the problem is that it for the most part isn't pitching thats blowing gaskets
if it was that would be less concerning but its the level of position players who are getting hurt that is truly disturbing.
He's not missing bats and still giving up HRs like they're party favors at Chuck-E-Cheese - mikev
by designatedforassignment on May 17, 2010 5:35 PM PDT up reply actions
This is a great article Taj
Great teams always have great slugging, and we have none. The Marlins and Twins always seem to find sluggers, but we seem to go for the low risk/low reward draftees, and we get burned a lot by it. Billy tries to be clever and getting the draftee who had an injury like Buck and, maybe, Powell, and Weeks, and he thinks he is getting some “value” out of the pick. But these college guys who were injured tend to stay injured. So we end up drafting HIGH RISK/low reward type of players. I don’t know why Billy does this, but this has to stop. Additionally, I don’t get the hype on Grant Green, I just don’t see a big offensive threat, and his single A numbers are disturbing for such a high draft pick. We might have to be prepared to face the fact that he may be another Pennington. I think drafting players like this is a huge part of our problem. I see Brett Wallace’s stats and it just infuriates me. Same with Smoak.
Uh, what?
The Twins?
We’re talking about the team whose 2006 playoff roster had only three hitters with any real power at all, right?
“Risk” has nothing whatsoever to do with this. It’s somewhat obvious from this post that you actually don’t have any idea what upside means in prospects and have just retroactively decided that the guys who aren’t that good must have had low upsides, because that’s the only possible explanation for a post that appears to claim that Grant Green was a “safe” pick.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
We had a guy who could've been a difference maker
rebuildingseason.blogspot.com
by Rebuilding Season on May 17, 2010 6:13 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Father Desme is displeased at your shenanigans.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on May 18, 2010 6:43 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Ah Desme...
How many converteds has he saved?
I agree with both parts
However much Moneyball focused on offense, the offensive talent since then has been crap.
Why not go back to the old days, and focus on what made our offense good when we had a good offense. Hell, during that time, we also had a good medical staff didn’t we? Didn’t we have a very low injury rate back then as well?
Whatever we were doing earlier in the decade, we were doing right.
I think HGH would be the way to go these days
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on May 18, 2010 5:56 AM PDT up reply actions
I think in the last few years Beane has become more aware and willing to pay more money for overslot players like Stassi, and spending more internationally. I wish they could have gotten Chapman. At least we knoow they are trying to spend money in the right spot now. I would rather go over slot for someone than spend money on Sheets.
Derek Holland has a nono through 4
Did anyone ever think that maybe we just ran into 5 extremely hot pitchers in a row? No, that would require finger pointing at Beane and Wolfe.
Another point: do people really think Crisp is going to be an offensive force? He has a career 705 OPS at the Coli. His defense and speed are nice, and he’s an upgrade over, I dunno, Gabe Gross, but he’s not the answer. The answer lies in putting Cust at DH and trading for contract year players who mash in LF and RF and make Crisp/Sweeney a platoon with Raj as a 5th/PR. If that happens, then things will turn around very quickly.
-The president of the "Sign Elijah Dukes" fan club.
More art than science
Much as we would like to believe that there is one “right” answer to every medical problem, I’m afraid that’s an oversimplification in many if not most cases. Sometimes it’s just a matter of using trial and error and hoping you hit on the solution. A fracture is a fracture, but soft tissue injuries are much harder to diagnose and harder to treat. Everyone responds differently to treatment, and sometimes you have to try a number of things before you hit on what works for a given patient.
That said, I stand by what I said at AN day a few years ago when I asked Billy Beane about revamping the medical staff. Something needs to be done differently, for sure.
I’m staying home tonite — not excited enough to be that wet and that cold. Hope for better weather tomorrow!
Losing this team would be a huge failure for this city and an affront to Oakland’s great sports legacy.
The George Carlin school of theoretical medicine, eh?
Just guesswork in a white coat?
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
Well, then how come other teams seem to be much better at guessing?
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on May 18, 2010 5:57 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm not sure they are
How plugged in are we to other teams’ minor league rosters to hear about their injury situations? The stuff that’s happened on the big club recently (Braden’s surgery excepted) has been all guys whom we thought would be injured at some point (Buck, Ellis, Duke) or freak injuries (Barton, Wuertz, Suzuki, Crisp).
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Athletics Nation - WE'RE ALL GONNA MRIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!! - danmerqury
by cuppingmaster on May 18, 2010 7:04 AM PDT up reply actions
That's what I keep wondering.
I hear all the time about how awful our injury situation is, but I have no clue what it’s like for other teams because I don’t follow them . I do know that almost every fan of a team thinks his own team is the one that gets all the bad luck injury-wise. How much worse than average are we really? There must be people out there who look at all 30 teams and aren’t a fan of any one in particular. Do those people also say that Oakland is among the worst in terms of medical staff and injuries?
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
Given the options... Taj my friend, you're overreacting
I’d explain why but I’d rather go snuggle with my wife and watch a movie.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I see the A's injuries, but I still find it hard to believe, that 5 levels of an organization, would be run that poorly.
I thought each minor league team, ran there own business, but the players belonged to the A’s, with no input from Billy, and the like? They hired there own staff, and then let the A’s know,who they are.
The beauty about baseball is that it's a very long season
Which can be viewed as a bad thing considering that most A’s players don’t seem to be able to play a good percentage of those games. But on the positive side, the AL West has no dominant team. No team impresses me.
by Tyler Bleszinski on May 17, 2010 7:34 PM PDT reply actions
The injuries have actually broken me
I have to admit. I’ve been just so ungodly frustrated this season that it’s not fun anymore. I didn’t even check the site this weekend, and for once it was not because I had a ton of other stuff to do. I spent the late afternoon (after the Sharks game) watching Curb Your Enthusiasm and enjoyed it a lot more than I would have the A’s game. On top of all this, I’ve basically lost any hope in the future of the franchise.
Maybe this is just a temporary thing, but I suspect not. We’ll see whether my attention perks up again after the World Cup, but in the meantime, I’ve just lost the ability to care anymore.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
by PaulThomas on May 17, 2010 8:01 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
That's how I felt during the Toronto series
I took break for a few games and came back felt better. I almost relapsed during this past road trip but I managed to get through it.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on May 17, 2010 10:26 PM PDT up reply actions
This is essentially how I feel
The organization has clearly gone from at least appearing to make progress to really seeming like they’re back at square one….AFTER they’ve now already consistently fielded three (going on four) straight mediocre teams, and have missed the playoffs five (going on six) out of the last six (going on seven) years. And all there is to show for it is an utterly middling situation.
we in the hurtin ballplayers binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.
by walk off bunt on May 18, 2010 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions
it's frustrating
but the a’s are 2 back, and they do have good pitching, much of it young with potential to get better. Admittedly, it’s hard to see them ever hitting the ball, and cust’s defensive lapses last night were simply unforgivable. But hang in there. there is (some) hope.
Your first place Oakland A's
by eastcoasta'sfan on May 19, 2010 7:53 AM PDT up reply actions
I'll hold off judgment until the ASB.
…given the A’s are traditionally late starters (coincidence, or some other reason, I don’t know), as is Chavez, and that Beane will have more than his “1/3rd” of a season to see what he has and do something about it.
If they’re under .500, then I’ll join the “I should have something better to do with me time” camp. Till then, AN gets my internet-surfing eyeballs for awhile.
by rollierollieOxenfree on May 17, 2010 9:08 PM PDT reply actions
It is no longer handwriting on the wall
It is here, and now. It may not be free fall for the A’s, but they will fall, along with Seattle, to well below 10 games out by all star break. Angels and Rangers will fight for the division down to the last day. There really is no hope for the A’s, just look at the lineup, really pathetic….essentially all marginal players now, except for Anderson when he is healthy…. and to top it off the worst, by far, manager in baseball!!
by robertmelvin on May 17, 2010 10:43 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
What about
player development?
I may be cherry picking on Carter, Taylor, Wallace, Cardenas and CarGon. But it seems like the A’s prospects get progressively worse until the big league, and once they get there they just bomb. Weren’t we supposed to have a fearsome, runaway AAA winner of a team this year?
Carter and Taylor have a history of sustained success up to AA, but are underperforming in AAA this year. Wallace was lukewarm at best at Sacremento last year before totally busting out this year on another team. Cardenas, yes, SSS, so I’ll hold judgment. I won’t elaborate on CarGon cuz 1) he’s playing in a completely different environment, and 2) too painful for me to think about.
Even Barton, who totally kicked ass until AA, performed somewhat disappointingly in AAA, and we know what’s happened the past two years in the majors. Despite the solid start to this year, I think the jury is still out (wasn’t he supposed to be the absolute crown jewel of the Mulder deal, and one of the handful of best “pure hitters” among prospects at that time?)
Just a thought.
Daric Barton's career wOBA is .333
He’s basically been league average so far in his career, and that includes his awful 2008 season. I think there’s plenty of reason to believe he’s a well above-average hitter.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on May 18, 2010 5:59 AM PDT up reply actions
Isn't it normal for players to fall by the wayside as they move up the minor league ladder?
This is the process of attrition. The A’s infused an awful lot talent into their minors a couple years a go, so it stands to reason there should be an awful lot of flame-outs. To me the real frustration lies in seeing the A’s miss out on a potential star due to poorly handled injuries, trading for Matt Holliday, or the priesthood.
I think Carter will be fine. His walk rate and slugging are still very good – he just needs to boost his average a little and we’ll all be salivating again. And if his slow start means he won’t be in Oakland this season, its probably a good thing.
I have a new theory of late.
While I’m still open to the idea that the medical staff is partly responsible, I no longer believe that is the sole reason. I am beginning to think that this whole misguided “upside” concept is partly to blame as well. This team’s consciousness has become so completely ingrained with the “small-market-we-can’t-spend-money” mindset that they now focus primarily on lesser players and/or players with known long-standing injury issues, HOPING this magical “upside” crap will pan out, primarily because they’re cheap. Good players that have histories of actually staying healthy are passed over as being out of their range. Well… you get what you pay for.
“Upside” translates to, “Let’s cross our fingers and pray this one actually works out as hoped.”, and then expand that to a significant portion of your roster. And then, there’s the wailing and gnashing of teeth when most of these players inevitably fall to injuries. Well, DUH!!! If you’re trying to build a good team and system, that’s a pretty weak plan of attack.
Harden says he was misdiagnosed. Maybe. He’s still not been a stalwart of reliability since he left. What about Duke? I was against his signing this year. Now, if they offer him even MLB-minimum for next year, I think they’re idiots. Let him go. Some players are what they are, period. Duke is way too fragile for rational people to depend on, and no amount of “upside” will alter the course from pipe dream to reliable player.
There are individual anecdotes and examples on either side of this theory, and neither side proves or disproves one way or another. It’s merely a theory as a partial explanation. As someone mentioned elsewhere, I seriously doubt there is one single explanation, but like I said above, this whole “upside” concept is more pipe dream than rational strategy, and I believe contributes to our injury woes.
Pitching and defense wins pennants, but offense sells tickets.
Organizational Players Hurt For Extended Period of Time in the Past 2 Years
Jemile Weeks
Sean Doolittle
Corey Brown
James Simmons
Michael Inoa
Andrew Carignan
Rashun Dixon
Jason Christian
Dustin Coleman
Fautino De Los Santos
Arnold Leon
Carlos Hernandez
These prospects are the foundation of the organization, and they have all gone down with injuries longer than 30+ days. It’s very depressing to think about.
by Colorado Fan on May 18, 2010 7:46 AM PDT up reply actions
Don't drive nails into anyone's head.
But baseball! Fuck yeah! -- lynnzgal
by WaddellCanseco on May 18, 2010 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions
To me the OF has been the biggest dissappointment of the rebuild thus far.
Pitching-wise the A’s are already getting solid production from their trades and recent drafts, and I reckon that in between Mazarro, Capra, Leon, and Figueroa there could be another quality MLB starter in there somewhere. The infield depth was in awful shape when the rebuild commenced, and, while I don’t believe Cardenas, Green, and Weeks will be stars by any measure, there is at least more depth than there was a couple years ago, especially if turns out Pennington and Rosales are average-ish big leaguers.
Then there’s the OF… about 18 months ago, CarGon had taken his first major league ABs, Buck was just having a down year, and Cunningham and Brown were coming off very solid years at double and single A respectively, By the following Spring Doolittle was showing promise in the OF and Desme was on his way to being healthy and productive. I never thought all these guys would be big league stars, but I figured they’d produce a couple regulars for the A’s. Fast-forward to the present and there is basically just Michael Taylor.
So yeah, basically what you said about injuries and lack of offensive talent, although you left out boneheaded trades and the priesthood.
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